Fifty2weekhi

Not All Contacts Show Up In Gmail's Call Phone - Solved

2013-08-24T08:38:00.002-04:00

I use a dozen of Google products daily for years, including making phone calls using Gmail's Call Phone. I have had quite a few problems and issues with Google products, but amazingly Google has never ever address any of them, including this one which I will address.

When you click the Phone icon on the left pane of Gmail, the telephone keypad pops up on the lower right hand corner. You can then enter the phone number to initiate a call, or you can start typing and the phone numbers of the matching Google Contacts would be displayed as hints and you can press Enter to initiate a call. This is very handy as you won't have to remember any phone number that is in your Google Contacts.

Many months ago as Google continuously "improved" the integration among its products, I noticed some of my contacts stopped showing up on the "hint list" of the Call Phone keypad, especially notable were those of my immediate family.

I began to search for causes and solutions to no avail. People are having the same
problem but no one has the solution. I then noticed that my family are in my Google+ circles and their Google profiles are automatically appended in Google Contacts. May be that's why? But one family member who is in my Google+ circle does show up on the keypad... Soon I found a pattern, and thus the solution. Ready?

It turns out that if a Google contact has a Gmail address *AND* you enter it in the email field of Google Contact form, it would not show up on the "hint" list of the Call Phone keypad!!! An apparent software bug! One solution is to cut the gmail address and paste it inside the notes field instead.

Another Google bug circumvented.

Replacing the Front Driver Side Window Regulator For My E46 BMW

2013-06-29T21:28:00.000-04:00

Back in 2011, both rear power windows of my 2001 BMW 323xi stopped working within 1 month of each other. In the same year, my father's 2001 Lincoln LX also had 2 power window regulator broken. It was amazing at the time how windows simply broke left and right. I was too cheap and too lazy to replace them. I bought some power suction grips from Bed Bath & Beyond to keep the glass up without falling. I have a child seat in the back, so most people thought I had the grips for my toddler. LOL. Incredibly, the suction solution has been working well for over 2 years now.

Earlier this year, the front driver side power window regulator broke as well. So now I had 3 power suctions on 3 of my 4 windows. It's now looking ridiculous. After a few months of procrastination, I finally got around and got the DIY project going today.

The project took me over 3 hours to complete partly because I let my 6 year old participate, but really, I ran into 3 problems that took me a lot longer than expected. If nothing else, these are the take-aways from this article:

One bolt off the window glass got stripped/rounded and I couldn't loosen it. It was my worse fear after reading a few DIY forum posts before I started the project. I went to a nearby Home Depot and bought a new set of ratchet sockets -- it was a wishful thinking but it came true - it turned out it was the cheap socket that got rounded, NOT the bolt itself!
It was difficult to slide the glass back onto the (new) regulator brackets such that the bolts on the glass fit snugly onto them. It must have taken me 20 minutes just for this step and a lot of sweat and cut on the hands to finally get the glass fastened properly onto the regulator brackets.
Just about all DIY forums failed to mention this, but the motor has a range. Chances are, the motor range and the current window glass / regulator brackets position are out of sync. The result is that you cannot raise the window all the way up before reaching the end of the motor's range. So after fastening the window glass to the new regulator, I had to lower the glass all the way down, remove the motor from the regulator, push the switch so the motor stoped at the lower range, and finally put the motor back onto the regulator.

There are a number of DIY on this topic on the web, but I'd like to document for my own record, as well as for anyone who needs another reference and comparing notes.

Tools You Will Need

Non-marring prying tool, or a super thin flat-head screw driver
8 mm and 10 mm sockets, ratchet drive, AND extension
Torx t-20 and Torx t-30 drivers or bits
Optional WD-40
Optional hair dryer

Replacement Part

I've read solutions on the web using zip ties, but I tend to shun these ideas. They would apply to the front windows only. The zip-ties would probably wear out sooner. And you can get a brand new replacement for $26.50 on eBay. I'd choose to replace the regulator.

Steps

	Carefully pry and pop out the side mirror switch from the door arm rest. Remove the screw using Torx t-20 driver.
	Carefully pry and pop out the tabs from the underside of the door arm rest. Remove the 2 screws using a Torx t-20 driver.
	Carefully pry and pop out the wood trim. Note the 4 tab positions so you can confidently apply prying force.
	Remove the 2 screws indicated using a Torx t-20 driver. Note the front screw is much longer than the rear.
	Yank out the door panel with force beginning from the top. Note the indicated locations.
	Here are all the tab locations shown after the door panel is yanked out completely. But before the door panel is completely removed, we need to disconnect a few things...
	Yank out the door handle cable by grabbing the circled area and pull away from the door panel.
	Disconnect the 2 speaker cable clips, and pull out the cable securing clip.
	Disconnect the cable socket from the side mirror switch. After this step, the door panel can then be completely removed.
	Remove the 2 screws from this module using a Torx t-20 driver.
	Disconnect the negative terminal off the battery before continuing!!! Remove the 3 nuts from the air bag module using 10 mm socket.
	Ensure the battery is disconnected, then remove the cable connector from the air bag module. This step is a bit tricky. You need to use a very thin flat head screw driver and first pry loose the top tab as indicated by (1) by elevating it, and then pry loose the base as indicated by (2).
	Here is a closer look at the connector after removal. You can see the top tab is showing a gap from the rest of the connector.
	At this point, it should taken no more than 30 minutes for the above easy steps.
	Carefully remove the vapor barrier. Use screw driver or other object to separate/cut the goo. Don't use your hands; it can get messy.
	It's a bit painful and may take 5 minutes to detach the vapor barrier. The good news is, putting it back is much easier.
	Temporarily connect the air bag module and reattach the negative terminal to the battery so that you can lower the window regulator using the power window switch. You want the 2 bolts fastened to the window glass become visible at the locations indicated. See the approximate height of the glass to achieve this.
	Using a 8 mm socket with extension to loosen the bolt. This is where you want to be VERY careful. Before you apply any force, make sure the socket is flush to the bolt which has rather shallow clearance. Pray hard that you don't strip/round the bolt! Some WD-40 should also help.
	Do the same for the other bolt. Note how the bolt is secured between the red tab and the metal bracket because you're going to have to put it back the same way and it won't be easy. The bolt and the red tab is secured with the glass, while the metal bracket is part of the regulator that moves up and down with the cable. After both bolts are loosened, lift the glass all the way up to be out of the way, and secure it however you can -- in my case, I have the power grip :)
	Detach the negative terminal of the battery and remove the airbag as before. Remove the motor by first unplugging the electric cable, removing the 3 Torx t-30 screws, then twist counter-clockwise so the 3 prongs of screw socket clears the regulator bracket. You can also remove the motor after removing the whole regulator apparatus like I did, but in hindsight, I think removing the motor first would give you more room.
	Squeeze the cable securing tab indicated with blue circle and push in to release it. Next, remove the regulator apparatus buy taking out the rear bar first. Again, I think if the motor had been removed first, this step would have been a bit easier.
	This is what the original regulator (with motor still attached) looks like as it comes out. Retrieve the cable securing tab as indicated. The replacement part won't come with one.
	This is the back view of the original regulator. Note the circled parts are where the bolts at the bottom of window glass get attached to the regulator.
	Flipping the bracket from the cable and you can see that the housing for the metal cylinder on the cable is broken.
	In fact, both housings were broken. I managed to find one of the broken pieces.
	If you did not remove the motor before removing the regulator, remove it now by first unplugging the electric cable, removing the 3 Torx t-30 screws, then twist counter-clockwise so the 3 prongs of screw socket clears the regulator bracket.
	This is the $21.50 replacement I bought from eBay. Put the front bar in first, then the rear bar.
	Hang the regulator by inserting its protruding bolts into the 5 holes as indicated. Attach the motor, airbag, and the negative terminal of the battery so by operating the windows switch you can move the brackets of the new regulator to the same place where you could see the bolts on the window glass when you loosened them before.
	Now the time consuming part. You need to manually lower the window glass so that each set of red plastic tab and the bolt of the window glass snugly sandwiches the metal bracket of the regulator. Tighten the bolts carefully without stripping them. You would most likely need to sync the motor range with the regulator position as mentioned earlier.

Finally, put everything back in reverse order. The only things I might add is that it may not be a bad idea to use a hair dryer to heat up the vapor barrier after you put it back on to make it stick nicely. Also, you'd have to bang hard on the door panel to drive all the tabs and latches in.

Good luck with your own DIY projects!

Utterly Disgusted With My Luck In Stock Market

2012-07-27T20:20:00.000-04:00

Not going to make this into a ranting and whining session, just laying out the facts. Aside from picking Fly's losers and missing out the winners, and not able to participate TraderFlorida's elusive timing on AAPL, my own swing trades haven't been working either. $BPCOMPQ has been on sell signal for the past 5 days, and for once I told myself I am going to take it religiously, especially with Buydonthold.com also flashing sell signal at the same time. Even Fly is hedging his longs with VXX. So I accumulated SDS -- bear ETF on SPY.

Yet, the market loved to fade me. SPY moved up over 4% today!!

While my long time social networking losers took their post earning plunges in the the past 2 days, to the tune of (-40%) for ZNGA and for FB, (-12%) on top of the (-8.5%) sympathy drop on ZNGA's disappointment a day earlier.

And for FB, (-12%) on top of the (-8.5%) sympathy drop on ZNGA's disappointment a day earlier.

Missing bandwagons, taking profits too early, holding on to losers, stopped out at low of day, big loser positions, tiny wind fall positions, and market rallying while your position suffer. One would never be happy in stock market. Even the legendary Jesse Livermore bankrupted a couple of times, got tired of fighting the market, and ended up killing himself. Enough is enough.

These Are Trying Times

2012-07-22T09:02:00.001-04:00

I am not talking about the recession, the European debt crisis, or the massacre 2 nights ago at the Dark Knight premier in Colorado. I am talking about my own personal life. It is amazing how my world has been crumbling down within just the last 10 days.

10 days ago, my father had colonoscopy and is being scheduled for surgery.

My mother had her colonoscopy a week later on Wednesday, and had already had surgery in the ER and is being hospitalized.

I've been negotiating salary on a new position. On Thursday I received a phone call which outright turned down my request, not even meeting me somewhere in the middle.

Even for small things I've been having bad breaks. On Friday my car had the annual state inspection done at Firestone, all was fine except for a bad braking light. I wanted to change the light bulb myself, but the service rep threatened that I'd be assessed a $12 re-inspection fee. So I paid $15 to have the little bulb put in. I found out a few hours later that for obvious checks such as braking light, there should be no re-inspection fees if done within 5 to 30 days in just about all garages, including Firestone. The dishonesty was depressing.

Just yesterday (Saturday), I received a letter from one of my banks notifying a $20 service charge for a failed deposit. The reason indicated was "unable to locate account". I subsequently found out that the account number on my own check from another bank was misprinted. An 8 was misprinted as 3. How often does thing like this happen, and one top of my bad breaks?!

My church is breaking down also. The pastor has been financially abusive, disputing with the board, and has gone on an unannounced, 6 week vacation overseas.

Trading isn't helping either. I am more and more convinced that the stock market may be the one place where God and Satan stand on the same side. Especially in light of everything else that had happened, I am taking an indefinite break on day-trading.

Can't Get Excited About AAPL

2012-07-10T13:30:00.000-04:00

Despite all systems are flashing buy signals, and TraderFlorida is once again long on AAPL, I just can't bring myself to pull a long position. The AAPL daily chart is against the 76.4 Fib retracement and the ascending channel.

But that's not reason to be bearish at all. What really troubles me is the 60 minute chart. Prices retreated and then broke into new highs, and yet the MACD went flat-line, no response whatsoever despite high volume. No, I am not shorting and being crazy enough to trade against TraderFlorida. I'm watching and learning.

UPDATE: Here is how AAPL ended the day. So this time I was right. See To Follow Or Not To Follow, this time I'd be better served to tune out even the "noise" from TraderFlorida. But bottom line remains: what's the odds that I am right?

GEO - Acting and Looking Bullish

2012-06-25T14:31:00.000-04:00

The market (SPY) is down 1.56% today with 1.5 hours to go with convincing breadth, yet GEO is up .43%. That's bullish. The weekly chart is showing cup with handle pattern, which is also a bullish setup. However, beware of the tide which could easily trump individual current. Another caveat is that uptrend prior to the cup is non-existent. GEO should have good odds of advancing in a big way if the broad market turns up. Currently holding GEO long. Always do your own due diligence.

It's All About Volume, or Not

2012-06-22T22:18:00.000-04:00

Throughout my trading career, it's no doubt that volume is the most basic yet the most elusive indicator. Aside from price itself, the only other thing that is always present in any chart is volume. Yet, I have the hardest time mastering the interpretation of volume in the context of price action.

We've all heard the trading adage, "volume proceeds price." But which volume bar really matters? Which volume bars still matter? What is considered heavy volume? Relative to what - previous bar, the average volume, or previous big volume bar? Does volume matter in an intraday chart? When does a big volume bar indicate exhaustion? Does volume analyses work on lower priced stocks?

As shown above (from: source), we want to see a trend continuation with increasing volume, thereby confirming the primary trend. But at some point, as suggested by another rule of thumb, "a surge in volume can often signify the end of a trend"? So when do we "flip" the volume interpretation? The following chart was the example used.

One indisputable concept regarding volume is when a break-out of is confirmed by heavy volume. There is no argument there. It's bullish, period.

But what if there is no volume confirmation on the break-out? Price can still rally for a long time with low volume. So what do we do? I posted the VZ chart the other day. There was a massive selling volume at the end of March that defined the epic level of resistance. But look what happened: it was taken out like a knife through a carrot cake -- without a fight, on only average volume. And it has rallied 10% since! The only take away is this: just because there is no volume confirmation, it doesn't mean you should fade the price.

Another common application of volume is on double bottoms (or tops). Assuming the first bottom is accompanied by heavy volume. After a rebound, if the second attempt to make a new low has diminished volume compared to the first, then we could expect a reversal soon. See the SPY daily chart below.

Everything else about volume is too nebulous, elusive, subjective or whatever word you want to use to describe it. It's an art. As such, I find volume as a trading tool quite unusable. Thank you very much. It often serves as a noise to confuse me in trading -- that is, until one day perhaps when I finally "get" it!! If you have any insights, please do post comments!

VZ - Daily: Taking A Breather

2012-06-20T10:01:00.001-04:00

Interesting chart. Reached the rectangle target and now consolidating. Still have no idea about the big volume blob near the end of march and how that 1st horizontal resistance was taken out with low volume and still be able to sustain almost 2 months now. No divergence either.

Technical Indicators Can Be "Noisy"

2012-06-19T16:33:00.002-04:00

Usually we think of chatters on Yahoo, Twitters, blog sites, and CNBC as noises. But to me, excessive technical indicators are noises that are even more bothersome. As I enter a trade and set my stops, I'd realize the stop is just below a moving average -- if it's not on daily chart, I'd see one on the 60 minute chart. As a result, I tend to "stretch" my stop. Similarly, when a profitable trade has yet to reach my original target, I'd see that it's right at a Fibonacci level; as a result, I tend to get shaken out at that level prematurely. Without me knowing, these "noises" actually cause me to take profits too quickly, and hold on to losses too long. These also could get in the way of order entries. I wanted to go long on a breakout, but the "volume" is not confirming. Of course it turned out to be a summer day low volume rally and I'd miss the boat.

Here's a cursory list of the indicators I normally use, multiply them by the various time frames (weekly, daily, 60 minute, and 5 minute):

Exponential moving averages (EMA): 10, 20, 50, 200
Simple moving averages (SMA): 10, 20, 50, 200
MACD
STO
RSI
DMI
Horizontal support/resistance
Trend lines
Channels
Fibonacci retracements
Fibonacci extensions
TICKs
Volume

What can one do with these type of noises? I don't know. It's an art. One can close one eye and pretend these TA indicators do not exist, or unlearn one's knowledge. But it's a matter of time that these indicators play a key role as inflection points. For example, one day you feel clueless why that market bounced; then you realize it bounced on the 50 day SMA while the whole time you watch only the 50 day SMA.

Again, one either gets bogged down with indecision if one includes too many technical indicators, or one can become blindsighted at times by ignoring too many of them. Take your pick!!!

Market has gone up substantially with the Greek election over the weekend 2 day ago. Now it's faced with FOMC meeting tomorrow. The_Real_Fly has claimed victory after recovering 18% within just last 2 weeks!! He's now 15% YTD and raised cash to 40%. Amazing. TraderFlorida continues to attack from the short side, but for day trades only. All signals are still flashing BUY, but SPY is at a major resistance level where my final add would have been 2 weeks ago when signals were still bearish. STO on both daily and 60 minute charts are overbought above 90. RSI is overbought on the 60 minutes, but ADX is high-trending at 33.31. I am bogged down with indecision!!! Cash is king, but surely I don't feel good missing the rallies from the long side in the past 2 weeks.

Perfect Finish But It's All Clear for the Bulls

2012-06-15T20:57:00.000-04:00

Despite the epic Greece election pending this weekend, the market rallied hard. That by itself is remarkable. The market wants to go up. The Greek event may be just smoke and mirror, allowing the market insiders and institutions to steal shares from the fearful retailers and load up the boats. Look at the money flow today: tick up/down ratio of 2 to 1 with $12.5 million of money flow on block trades!

The dilemma is no more. What a difference a day makes (see yesterday's post on indecision). TraderFlorida exited his short positions. His bearish view has been a major headache for me as of late because he's been simply red hot (shorting AAPL, CMG, and LULU). I dare not to fade him. The_Real_Fly declared his victory today with FB up 6%, ZNGA up 10.5%, and YELP broke out, up 5.5%. Buydonthold.com's buy signal has been out a week ago since June 7. And the most conservative signal, BPCOMPQ finally flashes the buy signal at the end of the market TODAY!

The SPY had a perfect finish today right at the 50 day EMA and the projected upper trend line of the current down channel. This make it hard for the not-in-the-know retailers to enter long, but my suspicion is that Monday the market will breakout, giving all the price actions today and all the indicators available. It looks like it's all clear for the bulls. I relented as a bear, shying away from making any bearish bet. Not entering on the long side is the most I could muster up today as a bear.

To Follow Or Not To Follow

2012-06-14T16:21:00.001-04:00

Over the years I've followed a few services, blogs, and traders via Twitter. I can tell you eventually I stopped following them one by one, without exception. The reason I stop following has been that they caused my demise in one way or another. Then why follow?

Currently I've been following The_Real_Fly and TraderFlorida because they've been impressive. But as I've posted many times, The_Real_Fly has gone from 20% YTD return down to -5%, and now probably somewhere around 10%. Have my portfolio got hit in the process? You bet.

But the real issue is confusion and added stress. Think about it. If my trading signal says sell, but The_Real_Fly is 92% long, would I be less aggressive in shorting? Yes, I would, out of respect and fear. If then the market goes against me and rallies hard, how would I feel? Double whammy: on the one hand, I incur loss on my short positions; on the other, I feel I miss out on the "Fly" bandwagon while he does his best taunting his "enemies". It's an awful feeling.

Right now TraderFlorida is short and The_Real_Fly is long. My signal is about to turn from sell to buy. What should I do? So far TraderFlorida has a more consistent track record, but I've only followed him since 2 months ago. And he's only 10% short. The_Real_Fly has been suffering from giving it all back, but now could be the time he regains his losses. And he's over 90% long. Is this complicated or what?!

The best scenario is if my own signal agrees with the people I follow, but it only happens once in a while and I'd be subject to the aforementioned dilemma the rest of the time.

Tune out the noise -- yeah, only if you're confident with your own trading system. I am still learning and in search of the Holy Grail in the realm of trading, even though I know it does not exist.

AAPL - At Inflection Point

2012-06-13T15:54:00.002-04:00

Very weak price action but the first inflection point for possible bounce is the lower trend line of the ascending channel.

YELP - Strong Overhead Resistance

2012-06-12T15:41:00.000-04:00

After a 44% move over the last week or so, YELP has a strong resistance area to deal with at the circled area which is a confluence of resistance comprised of:

The light blue horizontal trend line, representing the 1.8 million shares of overhead supply set on May 3 at 20.30.
The dotted red line, representing the upper trend line of the descending channel extrapolated from the solid red lower channel line.
The olive line, representing the 50 day EMA at 20.01.

Support is the cyan horizontal line at 17.80. Given the strong momentum, I suspect it would break out after a few sessions of consolidation.

Bulls Choked Big Time

2012-06-11T16:42:00.000-04:00

I re-entered a small short position last Thursday via SPXU. The market had a big bounce off it 200 day EMA the next day on Friday. All signals except for BPCOMPQ were flashing buy by the end of day Friday. I was thinking here we go I was on the wrong side of the market again. Over the weekend, IMF agreed to bail out the Spanish banks via a €100 billion loan. Along with the rest of the bears, I was anxious over the weekend and had to make real attempt to distract myself from the the impending bloodshed on the bears. The futures were up as much as 1.5% last night (Sunday). This morning as I was ready to embrace the slaughter, I was pleasantly surprised that the gap up was only under .8% on SPY. In spite of the weaker than expected open, I was still prepared for the market to rally toward the SPY 135.75 major resistance in time -- the market was oversold and if the market had to rally, this news is IT!!! However, the market ended up selling throughout the day and never looked back.

So this is total emotional roller coaster. Instead of seeing big loss on my SPXU position, it's now actually green. Now I wished I had bought more on today's gap up. One simply can never be truly happy whether the market goes up or down. Greed and fear would ensure that you'll never be happy.

I can't imagine how The_Real_Fly has had to go through. Started with +20% YTD during the first quarter, he gave it all up and was down -3% YTD just two weeks ago. After last week's biggest rally of the year, including a 40% move on his biggest position, YELP, he was up 7% YTD. The weekend bailout news was supposed to bolster his momentum of win-ship, but as it turned out, the rally fizzled right out of the gate and turned into a sell-off day, losing in excess of 3%. Today was truly ironic. But at least the bulls were the one who got to sleep well and celebrate during the weekend, basking on the Spain bailout news.

Trading and investment is too tough in today's environment.

Short Term Rally Mode

2012-06-08T14:11:00.000-04:00

Since my post earlier this week on market at major support, SPY has been up for 4%, The_Real_Fly has come back to the positive territory YTD, and buydonthold.com has issued a buy signal. Sentiment spread also favors the bulls with a reading of just 7.4%. The only thing that is still holding the sell signal is the $BPCOMPQ, but realize it's a more conservative signal and it is also in the process of turning bullish.

Despite the lighter volume, the market can bounce until it doesn't. So there is no need to fight it. During this short term trend change, and possibly whipsawing sideway movement, it's best to be lightly long or lightly short. In this way, you can accumulate swing positions on either direction with the option to take crumb profits as you see fit.

Notable change of character is YELP. I've noticed it these past two days that the volume has come in and prices have held even as the general market sold off yesterday. This should make Fly real happy. Pair trade shorting ZNGA and longing YELP would have worked well. The 20.50 area could be problematic, however, due to possible overhead supply.

Market Right At Support On Multiple Time Frames

2012-06-05T09:11:00.002-04:00

The SPY daily broke the 200 day SMA yesterday but bounced off off the lower trend line.

On the other hand, the SPY weekly lost the 50 week SMA yesterday but bounced off off the projected lower channel line.

Given we are in an oversold conditions but in a confirmed bear market, anything can happen. This week is crucial.

Current Standing

2012-06-04T08:00:00.002-04:00

After last Friday's selling, I am all out of short positions via SPXU, TZA, and VXX. I am now mostly cash with a few spotty long losers viz ZNGA, FB, YELP, GSVC, ... You get the picture: the deflated social media stocks. Had I been more aggressive shorting, thanks to TraderFlorida and Mr. Fly going against my positions, I would have been able to take partial profit and still keep some short positions. But that's the way it is, for now. One has to be nuts to not take some profit at the trend line and 200 day SMA support last Friday. My position was simply too small for partial profits.

Going long would be a counter trend trade, and going short would be chasing. Best thing would be just wait and see, except for day trades.

Here are some arguments against chasing the shorts:

The RS for SPY are oversold at 27.32 and 29.31 in the 60 minute and daily charts, respectively. The ADX on the 60 minute is actually quite modest at 23.53, not entirely ruling out mean reversion trades. And the STO on the 60 minute chart is at a stunning 3.65 level! Last Friday's blood bath and break-down below the 200 day SMA actually resulted in a positive money flow:

With the Greece bailout meeting not until end of June, and the QE3 hint in the same time frame, the market can also take a little breather from the downside any time.

That being said, the market is officially a bear market, and the $BPCOMPQ is diving straight down.

So the best scenario is to wait for a bounce and look for opportunity to go short. Unfortunately, too many people are hoping for a bounce right now. We know what market loves to do, don't we?

AAPL - Hanging By A Thread

2012-06-01T15:05:00.000-04:00

Sitting on the bear flag channel and on the 20 day EMA. Looking treacherous. No positions.

AEM - Too Bad

2012-06-01T14:44:00.003-04:00

AEM up over 8% today, on the verge to breakout of the cup with handle structure. I posted a long set up mid-May. It was a nice setup, but too bad it fell victim of a shake-out. See circled area. I wonder how many trader (not investors who simply rely on "hope") were able to withstand and not waver. Too bad for me, AEM snapped back with fury since and I could not bring myself to chase after it. Such is life.

Tune Out the Noises

2012-06-01T10:34:00.000-04:00

Once in a blue moon, my plan worked out. The May bottom got retested on a big red gap. The late May rally was a bear flag after all. As my first target has been met, I've taken the profit off the table (SPXU, VXX, TZA). I'm not going to get greedy, especially with the weekend ahead where Europe may come up with a quick plan to kick the can down the road for a few more months. You may disagree, but that was my plan.

I would have been a bit more aggressive following my plan if it weren't for TraderFlorida getting bullish in the past few sessions. He even kept 1/2 of his AAPL position overnight, and actually he said he was going to add more yesterday if AAPL held on to the HOD. My bearishness was undoubtedly dampened by the red hot TraderFlorida's short term bullishness. Let's not kid ourselves, if TraderFlorida is long AAPL, who in his right mind would dare to short AAPL?! So I concocted a pair trade, shorting SPY and long AAPL, overnight. I made out break-even this morning but was more than a bit rattled because the pair trade assumed upside move where AAPL would outperform SPY. On a downside move, AAPL would move faster than SPY as well.

And how about Mr. Fly, the other twitter personality I respect and follow? He was up as much as 20% YTD but as of today he's (-3%). That's a 23% swing!!! See his blog today: A Story of Decay and Destruction. If this kind of roller coaster happens to a professional fund manager, what do you expect as a small time trader/investor? As he was down so much in the past few session and was still adding more chips to the fire, I couldn't help but adding a few of his longs in sympathy and also just as hedges to my short ETF's, out of respect (and fear of him). For example, ZNGA, YELP, and TEX. Well, needless to say, these hedges were just like insurance premiums, spent in vain as the "just in case" scenario did not pan out.

Tune out the noises - not just CNBC but other tweeters and bloggers as well -- IF you have a trading plan which you should, otherwise, you shouldn't be trading. Not tuning out the noises would confuse you and lessen the conviction for your own trading plan. Even if he is a respected trader and has a red hot track record, you never see his trading plan as a whole, how much confidence (and thus what position size), how much hedges he has behind the curtain, etc. Does it sound familiar when a stock tanked and you were pretty much sure that John Doe was screwed, only to find out later that he held some options to hedge his bet and revealed that he made out OK? Should you risk your hard earned money on only half of a story?

YELP - Some Intraday Accumulation

2012-05-30T15:42:00.003-04:00

Large volume without further downside. Doesn't it sound like accumulation? Larger picture the down trend still look insurmountable, but here it's looking a bit encouraging at the ALL TIME LOW.

Here are the bigger pictures. Upside volume are still badly needed to change the landscape.

YELP Daily

YELP 60 Minute

FB - Target Reached

2012-05-30T14:11:00.003-04:00

Sticking to My Plan

2012-05-30T11:09:00.002-04:00

Per my May 22 post, I am layering in my short positions in 3 stages, with the premise that the market is due for a bear market bounce. The premise can be wrong, but based on the longer term chart, it is better odds than 50 percent. Now given the premise, I don't know how high the market would bounce, especially on lighter volume. That's why I layer in at each pivot point, up to where I will have a full position, just in case the market goes down without looking back. As of yesterday, 2 of my 3 planned entries to the short side have been executed (see pink arrows), via SPXU, VXX, TZA.

There is a fine line between what I am doing and "averaging down" which is a taboo in trading. Here I have a plan, and each entry is a partial position (progressively larger in size). I may be guilty in the sense that I am unsure of where to enter a full position if I were to make just one entry. I can also be accused of "front running", but that can also be diffused by the fact that I'm entering partial position each time. I am the first to admit that I am a terrible chaser. I can't wait until the market snaps back down to enter my shorts. I am also terrible in applying "pyramiding" as preached by Jesse Livermore. It's complicated and there are endless trading styles. That's why trading is also an art.

PWRD - Earnings

2012-05-29T17:45:00.000-04:00

I have been watching PWRD for a while for the whole gap closure, and then the earnings tonight. These are the two things that kept me from going aggressive with the long setup. And both of my concerns came true. Gap was closed last session, and the earnings after the bell caused PWRD tankage as much as 20%. It's recovered some by now but we'll see how it trades tomorrow during regular trading.

A few remarks:

Honor your concerns for any given trade.
Earnings are crap shoots. Stay out or play light.
All setup can go wrong.
Jinx is alive and well in my trading. It is painful even with just 200 shares.

FB - Target

2012-05-29T12:03:00.001-04:00

Target of $28 makes sense. It's the rectangle target of the recent consolidation ($28.20). It's the 123.6% Fib extension ($28.05). And it's the original IPO pricing before raising it to $38.