Ricky Nolasco

OK, so his batting average might still be in the dumps, but David Ortiz is finally starting to show some signs of the power that turned him from an average hitter into BIG PAPI.  Ortiz connected on his ninth of the season, and that was his third in the last ten days.  At one point of the year everyone was wondering if he would hit 10 or 15 homers.  Now it appears that 20 is well within his range.  Still a bitter disappointment from our preseason expectations, but if he could get to a .250 average with 22 homers and perhaps 80 RBI maybe his owners would cancel their orders for the Ortiz voodoo dolls.

Jimmy Rollins is becomoing a regular on this column, as he continues to hit like it was 2007.  Now, I am not saying this will last, but in the one league that I benched him in long ago, he finally got back in my starting lineup today.  That’s seven homers and 11 steals now.  Like Ortiz, certainly not what we were hoping for, but much better than it looked like six weeks ago.

Gio Gonzalez has always had great strikeout potential, but he has always struggled in his chances at the major league level.  Gonzalez was red hot in the minors this year and deserves this latest opportunity to stick with the big club.  In 2007 he led the minor leagues in strikeouts with 185.  On the flip side his major league ERA is 7.54.  But perhaps today was the start of him turning the corner.  Gonzalez pitched six innings, allowed just two runs and struck out eight.  Sure it was against the Indians, but keep an eye on him.  I wouldn’t pick him up off this one good start, but keep an eye on him.

Josh Hamilton played both games of a doubleheader going 2/7 with a double, triple, and stolen base.  There is still not a definite plan as of now when he will return to the Texas lineup, but he seems primed to join them within the next day or two.  To show my confidence that he is on the brink of return, I am going to start him in the upcoming week in a league where my roster is set for the entire week.

Chad Qualls all of a sudden looks like he will be holding on to his job.  After going nearly three weeks without a save (with a blown save and a loss in there), all of a sudden Qualls has recorded a save for the second consecutive day.  Best of all is he didn’t allow a base runner in either of these opportunities.  What once looked like a lost cause has gained some life again. Qualls looks like he will be fine…….for now.

Scott Olsen had his second consecutive quality start since returning from the Disabled List, but I am still quite a ways a way from suggesting picking him up.   He was just one out away from a complete game on Sunday, allowing three runs while walking five and striking out five.  His ability to keep composure in pressure situations and his control have long been his biggest problems.  Olsen was once a highly thought of pitching prospect for the Marlins, but inconsistency have him pretty much out of the minds of fantasy players.  He has good strikeout numbers this year (41 in 56 IP), but they aren’t good enough to make up for his horrible ERA and WHIP.  Not to mention on the Nationals wins are hard to come by.  Leave Olsen in free agency unless he is still on this kind of roll at the end of the month.

Justin Smoak was promoted to AAA, further fueling fantasy players hopes that he might be promoted later this year to replace strikeout machine Chris Young.  Smoak did well at AA, but not dominating.  In 49 games he hit .333 with six home runs and 29 RBI.  Before the season started he was ranked as the 23rd best prospect in all of baseball by Baseball America.  He should have some real power potential, and has been compared to Mark Teixeira.  I still think he is a ways away from being promoted, but this is a positive sign.

This is how Bronson Arroyo messes with fantasy players.  Between May 22nd and June 7th Arroyo allowed just one earned run in three of his four starts.  Everyone was adding him to their team.  Since then?  Including today, Arroyo has allowed five or more earned runs in four of his last five starts and has lost three straight decisions.  I often tell someone that a player “is who he is”, any of you who have emailed me have probably heard that before.  Well, same goes for Arroyo.  He is an average pitcher who is capable of hitting some nice hot streaks.  Problem is they are usually short lived, and followed by cold streaks of equal lengths.  The proper way to use him is to pick him up against some of the weaker hitting National League teams, hope he does well, and then cast him aside until he gets another favorable matchup.

Tommy Hanson and Andrew McCutchen are getting all the press for the NL Rookie of the Year right now, but don’t sleep on the Cardinals’ Colby Rasmus.  After a tough month of May where he hit for power but a .211 average, Rasmus hit .333 in June and is 8/17 so far in July. He has struggled against lefties, hitting just .173 against them, but he has shown some improvement in each month.  The Cardinals think enough of him that he has been batting second in the lineup for quite a while now and he hit his tenth home run of the season today.  I thought he would bring a little more speed to the table, but with the power he is showing and a .282 average he is worthy of being a fourth outfielder on any team.

Rick Porcello had his third straight less than stellar start, and his owners are likely starting to panic.  Porcello allowed four earned in just four innings.  His record is now 8-6, and his ERA has creeped over four.  20 year old pitchers are always going to go through rough spots, and I am still confident that is what is going on with Porcello right now.  He will get back on track, although I would like to see him strikeout more hitters.  He was the number one prospect for the Tigers coming into the season, and he will be back.  You might not want to start him the next time out, but if he has a weak opponent I would keep him in.

Nick Blackburn continues to fly under the fantasy radar for the Twins, and the only explanation that I can come up with is because he doesn’t get a ton of strikeouts.  Blackburn went the distance on Sunday, allowed just one run and struck out six.  He hasn’t allowed more than three runs in a start since May 16th, and with today’s outing his ERA is now under 3.00.  His record is now 7-4 and his WHIP is an average 1.27 so he really isn’t hurting you in those categories either.  It is his 51 strikeouts in 116 innings that causes him to be left on fantasy waiver wires.  If you have a flamethrowing staff to begin with, Blackburn is a nice guy to have at the end to counteract one of those days when your usuals don’t come through.

Jake Fox crushed his fourth homer of the season and has been hitting and playing defense well enough to stay in the lineup for the Cubs, but the question remains where will he fit in when Aramis Ramirez comes back?  Ramirez should be back at some point this week, and Fox has mostly been holding down his position at third base.  With Milton Bradley, Fukudome, and Soriano in the outfield, where does Fox get his playing time?  I still think he should be in the Cubs outfield but only time will tell if he will be in the lineup when they are fully healthy.  Of course with guys like Ramirez, Bradley, and Soriano another injury could pop up at any second.  Until you see the full lineup and Fox still getting at bats, you have to remain worried about how much time he will get.

Randy Johnson left his start with some sort of shoulder strain.  He was fooled badly on a pitch by Roy Oswalt, and grabbed his shoulder on the way back to the dugout.  The next inning he allowed a couple of home runs and then made a throwing error.  The Giants training staff made its way to the mound, and Johnson’s day was over.  He is pitching well better than expectations, so hopefully this is nothing that will cause him to miss a start.  When you a pitcher over 40, they tend to be more cautious with you.

OK, back to the ESPN Arcade.  Now today I have been sucked in by Extreme Trucks and Extreme Blast Billiards.  The billiards game even slaps you in the face and calls you a wuss if you try to choose the “easy” difficulty setting.  After playing it a couple dozen times, I wish there was an easy setting. I’m telling you, try the Concentration: Staches and you will be hooked.  Haven’t you ever wanted to play a memory game that has cards with Dave Winfield from the 70’s and Johnny Damon in the midst of his Jesus look?  There’s games for everyone, I urge you to go there and see how fast it takes you to find a game that has you addicted.

Last thing of the night, there will be another Fantasy Roundtable with Steve Gardner and myself at the usatoday.com.  I have talked about his Fantasy Windup blog for a couple months now and hopefully you all have checked it out.  The latest Fantasy Roundtable will be this Tuesday at 12pm EST just like last week and likely last between 60 to 90 minutes.   For those of you unfamiliar, this is different from a regular chat.  Instead of throwing your questions into a hopper and hope the host answers them, this is a chat room type discussion where questions are asked and answered in real time.  Join me and Steve and get your questions answered.  I know Jennifer and Martha were both there last week, so if you can leave a comment if you found it valuable that would be appreciated.  Here is a link to last week’s chat.

As always, your comments and questions are welcome at fightingchancefantasy@gmail.com. I guarantee a response within 18 hours. Also, don’t miss the “Fantasy Baseball Tonight” podcast four nights a week from Monday-Thursday. The Big Show on Wednesday is co-hosted by Todd Farino of fantasybaseballsearch.com, RC Rizza of junkyardjake.com and myself, Ryan Hallam at fightingchancefantasy.com. To hear the show go to www.blogtalkradio.com/the_true_guru. You can also hear me weekly on the Tuesday Night show. Join me with Jeff Mans every Tuesday night at 10pm EST for all the the info and craziness we can pack into one hour. A can’t miss if you plan on winning your league.

Josh Hamilton will not return to the Rangers on Sunday.  His rehab game on Saturday was rained out, delaying his return to the majors at least one more day.  There is still a chance that Hamilton might return on Monday, but nothing definite has been announced.  I will give the news on this again tomorrow, because I am a Hamilton owner as well and I am very curious to see if I will be able to play him in my one league with weekly transactions.  Hopefully he will be back on Monday.

Despite pitching less than great in a rehab assignment, Oliver Perez will be back in the Mets’ rotation on Wednesday against the Los Angeles Dodgers.  Perez allowed three runs over five innings, walking four and striking out four.  I understand that given the Mets’ situation that they need to get their starters back from injury as soon as possible, but this start doesn’t instill any confidence in me that Perez will be any better than he was before he went on the DL.  I wouldn’t touch him with a ten foot pole before this start unless you are really desperate for help in pitching.

Kevin Slowey was placed on the 15 day DL, right after he had his worst outing of the season.  Slowey allowed six earned runs over just three innings, but he got off the hook for the loss.  Slowey has been diagnosed with a strained wrist.  I have been unable to come up with a timetable for his return as of now, hopefully it will just be the required 15 days.

Howie Kendrick has been recalled by the Angels, and they optioned Sean Rodriguez.  Kendrick hit .346 with two homers, 11 RBI, and four steals while he was in the minors.  I would likely give Kendrick a try if he is available in your league.  He has always supposed to be a great talent but has struggled in his time in the majors.  He should hit for a good average with 10-12 homer power and a dozen steals.  Not great, but if you need help at middle infield he could be worth a shot.

Erik Bedard is set to start on Tuesday against the Orioles.  Bedard has been great when he has been able to stay on the mound, however he has had trouble staying healthy throughout his career.   If you own him, definitely have him ready to start on Tuesday, Bedard is the kind of pitcher that you start against anyone.

Chien-Ming Wang allowed four runs over 5.1 innings, and after the game it was announced that he was diagnosed with a strained shoulder and bursitis.  He will be re-evaluated on Sunday, but it seems likely he will miss his next start.  I doubt he is owned in too many leagues, but if he is, it might be time to let him go.

Rich Harden had his worst start in who knows how long, and I am struggling to come up with an explanation for why he is pitching so poorly.  I have speculated that he could have some sort of injury, but there is absolutely no sign of a report of anything wrong with him.  Harden gave up seven earned runs in just two innings and struck out only one.  All you can do is keep pitching him every time out.  Harden is better than this, and it has to be just a matter of time before he starts to pitch like it.

Although the bullpen couldn’t hold the lead for him, Tommy Hanson was great again.  It might have only been against the Nationals, but Hanson allowed just one run over seven innings, striking out five.  In five of his six starts, Hanson has allowed two runs or less, including three in which he allowed no earned runs.  The walks are higher and the strike outs are lower than I expected, but Hanson has been everything else that he was supposed to be, and has to be the early front runner for the NL Rookie of the Year.  Continue to start him every time out with extreme confidence.

Francisco Liriano might not have gotten the decision, but he had his third straight start that his owners had to be happy with.  He allowed just three runs over seven innings and struck out eight.  He has been much better over the last six weeks or so, and hopefully he will continue to improve and he can get back to the form that once made him one of fantasy baseball’s most coveted pitchers.  I have said before that I don’t see his rookie year statistics coming back, and that hasn’t changed, but it would be nice to see him pitch like this more often.

David Price was terrible again, and I don’t know where the guy who pitched in the playoffs last year went.  Price lasted just 1.1 innings, allowed six runs and walked five.  Coming into the year I thought that Price was that rare young pitcher that wouldn’t be susceptible to the growing pains that most rookies go through.  Obviously that won’t be the case.  Keeper league players, I’m sorry to tell you that you just have to live through these tough times.  Price has all the skills, and he will be awesome, who knows when that will be.  Honestly, this might be a good opportunity for those who don’t own him in keeper leagues to buy low on Price.  Seasonal leagues I still wouldn’t drop him, but I might see if there was someone in the league who might give you a good deal for him.

Jimmy Rollins is starting to show some signs of life, with five hits in the last three days.  He also has three doubles and has driven in four runs over those games, and PERHAPS this is the start of something good.  He’s still hitting .213, so don’t get too excited, but for those of us who have owned him all season long this is about as exciting as it has been all year long.

Is Emilio Bonifacio working his way back to fantasy relevance?  He was 4/4 on Saturday and stole his 17th base of the year.  He now has a hit in ten of his last eleven games, and six bases over that stretch.  I would say if you need stolen bases that he is worth adding to your roster, but just be ready to cut ties with him if another cold streak starts to show.

ESPN.com has relaunched the ESPN Arcade with hundreds of games for you to play.  Regardless of your interests there is sure to be something to get you addicted.  Sports games, driving games, cards, puzzles, and even action sports.  So far I have played Carniball (skeeball), a basketball shooting game, a baseball game in which you try to make a comeback in the bottom of the Ninth, and of course, some video poker.  However, my favorite game so far is the Hair & Staches Concentration.  This is a timed memory game in which you try to match up cards with some of the more interesting looks in baseball history.  Not only fun but funny as well.

Mailing List

I’m not going to stop bringing up the mailing list until I get a day where I don’t get a request to join it. For those of you who haven’t seen it yet, when I find news earlier in the day I will send an email to you about whatever it might be. If you were on the mailing list you would have found out about the callups of Matt Wieters, Fernando Martinez, Nolan Reimold and others. The trade of Nate McLouth, and injuries to Jose Reyes, etc. This mailing list is your way to get a step up on your competition. Anyone who is on the list, please leave a comment below on whether you think that you have benefitted from the list. Send an email to either fantasybaseballtonight@gmail.com or fightingchancefantasy@gmail.com and put Mailing List in the subject line.

As always, your comments and questions are welcome at fightingchancefantasy@gmail.com. I guarantee a response within 18 hours. Also, don’t miss the “Fantasy Baseball Tonight” podcast four nights a week from Monday-Thursday. The Big Show on Wednesday is co-hosted by Todd Farino of fantasybaseballsearch.com, RC Rizza of junkyardjake.com and myself, Ryan Hallam at fightingchancefantasy.com. To hear the show go to www.blogtalkradio.com/the_true_guru. You can also hear me weekly on the Tuesday Night show. Join me with Jeff Mans every Tuesday night at 10pm EST for all the the info and craziness we can pack into one hour. A can’t miss if you plan on winning your league.

The people at FanSoft Media didn’t miss a single detail, this program has every little nuance to make your draft as personal and fun as possible.   It has all the options that you need to run an auction or a regular draft. Each team can have their own logo uploaded, as well as an owner image and a team theme song that plays while you are picking.  You can have an announcer call the draft, you can have the software display teams, bye weeks, and positions on the draft board.  What about keepers you ask?  FanDraft allows you to set keepers for each team before the draft even starts, taking away any inconvenience from the past. This will assure you that it is YOUR draft, YOUR way and it definitely adds to the fun of the day.

For auction leagues, FanDraft keeps a running total of not only the players on each team, but the amount of money that each team has left to spend, taking away the chance of anyone messing with the math.  You can even upload a song that will play for the final 15 seconds of the bidding of the players.  You can easily set your salary cap, minimum bid, and required number of players.  The bidding process could not be any easier.  After selecting the player to put up to bid, a simple click of the logo of the team puts in their bid.  If bidding ends before the clock hits zero, a countdown button is available to end the bidding early for those who set the timer to a high number.  I haven’t competed in a ton of auction leagues, but while testing the software I ended up running the vast majority of a draft just because it was just fun to play around with even though it wasn’t a real league.

Traditional drafts are just as easy.  Draft order can be set to serpentine or non-serpentine.  You can edit the draft order for each individual round to accomodate leagues that allow trading of draft picks.  There is a running ticker at the bottom of the screen recapping the picks, just like the real NFL draft.  The software pauses in between rounds to recap the round before setting you up for the next round.  If there is trouble, the draft is paused at the click of a button, and restarted just as easily.  FanDraft can also accomodate trades during the draft right on the draft board.  No need to go through any huge ordeal.  A quick window pops up, and BAM, the trade is done.  What if someone wants to draft some obscure rookie?  The Player on the Fly option allows you to input a player that isn’t on the draft board.  I told you, this program has everything.

Even after the draft, FanDraft gets an A+.  You can run multiple reports with a click of the mouse.  Draft summaries, team rosters, free agents, a replica of the draft board, and a recap of all in draft transactions are available once the draft is over.

Thanks to FanDraft, the only details you will have to worry about on your big day will be where to order the pizza from, how hot the wings should be, and what kind of beer does everyone like.  The best part about it is that it won’t break the bank.  The program costs $34.95, which means in a traditional 12 team league, everybody kicks in three bucks.  Is that too much to ask to transform your draft from some dope with a marker to something that looks like the real NFL put it together?  Believe me when I tell you that you will enjoy this program.  It really is fun, easy, and convenient to use.

Manny Ramirez returned to the lineup for the Dodgers on Friday, and went 0/3 with a walk.  Obviously if you didn’t have him in tonight, get him back in your lineups tomorrow.  Just a question.  Why does everyone still love Manny while guys like Clemens, McGwire, and Bonds are ostracized from the society of baseball?  I’m not defending those other guys, but why has Manny come back to such fanfare when we have a positive test on him, while the others are just a mountain of circumstanial evidence?

Jorge Posada was out of the lineup for the second straight game after sustaining a bruised thumb on Wednesday.  It doesn’t appear that this will be anything that will keep him out of the lineup for much longer.  It is even possible that he will return on Saturday.

Carlos Quentin will begin his rehab assignment on Saturday as he hopes to return from the Disabled List before the All-Star Break.  He will start out slowly and won’t even play the entire game right away. But it appears that Quentin will be back soon, which is good for those of us who have been stashing him for quite a while now.

Ryan Doumit played his first rehab game on Friday, and is likely that he will be back with the Pirates in a week or so.  He will play three games in rookie ball before advancing to AAA for four or five games.  Doumit caught five innings tonight and was 0-2 with a walk.  He was dropped in many leagues, if he’s out there and you have any issue at the catcher position I would pick him up to give him a chance.   I know a broken wrist is a tough injury to come back from, but there are so few good catchers that he is worth the risk.

Edwin Encarnacion returned for the Reds tonight and hit a long impressive double nearly off the wall against Ryan Franklin.  In his rookie year, Encarnacion did hit 26 homers, but that fell to 16 in 2008.  He is not a guy that I have ever had a lot of confidence in, but like Doumit there aren’t a ton of good options at third base and if you need any help that is the only way that I would consider him.

Raul Ibanez is feeling better but his groin is still not 100% so he hasn’t started his rehab assignment just yet.  It is looking now that he won’t be back until after the All-Star Break, although he likely will begin his rehab assignment sometime in the next three to five days.

Alex Rodriguez homered for the third time in four games, and the fifth time in the last eight contests.  He has raised his average nearly 30 points in the last seven games, and for all of you who were thinking of selling him cheap, this is the kind of streak that he is capable of.  Despite all the drama and distraction, A-Rod is one of the best hitters in all of baseball, and will hit 40 home runs again in 2009.

Rodrigo Lopez had his first start in the major leagues since 2007, and he certainly made the most of it.  Lopez allowed just two runs over 6.1 innings and struck out four.  He did have a couple of good years early in his career, but he had elbow trouble that seriously derailed his progress.  Lopez didn’t have a start for nearly two years for a reason.  Don’t fall into the trap of grabbing a guy after one decent start.  Let someone else make that mistake.

Shin-Soo Choo was a triple short of a cycle tonight, and that included two home runs.  Choo is quickly becoming one of the more productive draft picks of the year.  He is now hitting .301, has hit 12 homers, stolen 13 bases, and has driven in 53 runs with his seven RBI game on Friday.  While I think that he will continue to produce at a similar rate, if you can trade him away for a proven power hitting run producer I would certainly do it.  Choo is a good player, but I would try to shop him around to see if someone will bite on something they shouldn’t.

Homer Bailey had a much better start his second time out, but I still urge you to stay away from him unless there is a sense of desperation with your pitching staff.  Bailey allowed just two runs over 7.1 innings and struck out five.  The best part was that he only walked two, after allowing seven free passes last time out.  He has had a handful of decent starts in his career, so I am not putting too much stock in this one.  Unfortunately for him, the bullpen imploded so he doesn’t even get a win to show for his great effort.

Frank Francisco bounced back from his blown save on Thursday and converted an easy one tonight.  Francisco collected save number 13 against Tampa Bay without giving up a hit and striking out one.  I still believe that he will be an elite closer in the second half, much like he was up until his shoulder woes started.  If for some crazy reason he was dropped, pick him up immediately.

Ervin Santana is really starting to frustrate his owners now.  Including Friday, four of his last six starts have been awful.  He gave up the booty again tonight, allowing four earned runs over only four innings, walked three and struck out five.  His ERA on the season is now a whopping 7.43 and his WHIP is a terrible 1.90.  Now the big question is what should you do with Santana.  Unfortunately, I truly believe that this is a case by case kind of decision.  If you have someone in your free agent pool that can be considered a quality pitcher, I would likely let Santana go.  If you are just picking up another average retread, hold on to Santana and hope that he turns things around.  He has more talent than Kenshin Kawakami, Ross Ohlendorff, and Carl Pavano.

Mailing List

I’m not going to stop bringing up the mailing list until I get a day where I don’t get a request to join it. For those of you who haven’t seen it yet, when I find news earlier in the day I will send an email to you about whatever it might be. If you were on the mailing list you would have found out about the callups of Matt Wieters, Fernando Martinez, Nolan Reimold and others. The trade of Nate McLouth, and injuries to Jose Reyes, etc. This mailing list is your way to get a step up on your competition. Anyone who is on the list, please leave a comment below on whether you think that you have benefitted from the list. Send an email to either fantasybaseballtonight@gmail.com or fightingchancefantasy@gmail.com and put Mailing List in the subject line.

As always, your comments and questions are welcome at fightingchancefantasy@gmail.com. I guarantee a response within 18 hours. Also, don’t miss the “Fantasy Baseball Tonight” podcast four nights a week from Monday-Thursday. The Big Show on Wednesday is co-hosted by Todd Farino of fantasybaseballsearch.com, RC Rizza of junkyardjake.com and myself, Ryan Hallam at fightingchancefantasy.com. To hear the show go to www.blogtalkradio.com/the_true_guru. You can also hear me weekly on the Tuesday Night show. Join me with Jeff Mans every Tuesday night at 10pm EST for all the the info and craziness we can pack into one hour. A can’t miss if you plan on winning your league.

Francisco Rodriguez allowed a run for the second time in three starts, and as the rest of the Mets are struggling, it appears that K-Rod is a bit himself.  His save chances will likely be limited as long as the Mets are without Carlos Delgado, Carlos Beltran, and Jose Reyes, but he is generally a shut down closer and should convert most of his opportunities.  He obviously won’t get near the 62 saves he had in 2008, but over 40 is definitely within his range.  Unless you can get another elite closer and another advantage, I wouldn’t think of dealing away Rodriguez.

Garrett Jones was called up by the Pirates and wasted no time making an impact as he was just the single short of the cycle.  Jones has been toiling in the minor leagues for a decade, so it isn’t like he is the hot new prospect.  You won’t find him in any of the Baseball America prospect rankings that you often hear me quote.  However, the guy has some power.  He topped 30 home runs one season, and was over 20 in three other years.  He does have a bit of a problem with Ks and his batting average isn’t exactly something to write home about, but if you are in need of some power, he has a chance of bringing it to you.

Mets’ prospect Nick Evans has been making an impact for the offense starved Mets in the short period of time he has been with the team.  He has a hit in every game he has started, including a home run (of course at the game I attended!) and four RBI in seven games.  Evans had another two hits and RBI on Thursday and I would be willing to bet that he is in the lineup as long as he is hitting given the state of the Mets’ lineup.  He has had a few above average seasons in the minors, but nothing that screams “top prospect”.  He was ranked as the ninth best prospect in the Mets’ organization by Baseball America, but given the recent trades for Johan Santana and J.J. Putz, the farm system in Flushing has been depleted.  You can grab him while he is hot, but just don’t expect this to be a full season kind of thing.

Chad Qualls blew his fourth save chance of the season, and I am starting to have big time questions about his ability to hold this job.  He hasn’t saved a game since June 11th, but that is more of a product of the D’Backs being a bad team more than Qualls failings as a closer.  But 13 saves and four blown doesn’t instill a lot of confidence. Put that together with an ERA of 4.22 and you have yourself a guy looking to be replaced.  I don’t know if it will be Jon Rauch or Tony Pena who will eventually take over for him.   Rauch has closing experience in Washington, while Pena has some pretty good stuff.  Hold Qualls until it is official that he has lost the job, but don’t be surprised if you hear that news the next time he blows a save chance.

Doug Davis has allowed one run or less in his last three starts, and despite Arizona’s inability to win games, he is becoming a pitcher that you can own at the end of your rotation.  Davis is pitching to a 3.15 ERA on the season, which is great, but his 3-8 record will scare most people away.  His WHIP isn’t great at over 1.35, but he has 78 strikeouts in 105 innings which is pretty decent.  I’m not adding him in any league, but if you are looking for a decent pitcher to help you during a tough stretch of injuries or ineffectiveness, give Davis a look.

Kevin Correia got tattooed on Thursday, and although he had a very hot June, he is not a guy that I would trust going forward.  Correia spent much of his career as a reliever, and the time that he did start he was not even close to being effective.  Last season he made 19 starts for the Giants and his ERA for the year was over six.  Don’t trust him do have a July anywhere near to the caliber of the June that he had.

Ryan Ludwick is starting to show some signs of life.  He had five homers in the first three weeks of the season, and eight on May 12th when he went out with an injury.   When he returned from injury, Ludwick was a shell of the player who started 2009 on that hot streak and his average dipped 50 points from his pre-injury form.  Within the last week or so however, Ludwick has started to hit again.  With his two hits on Thursday, he now has seven in the last five days, and has three RBI in the last two days.  I’m not quite saying that he is back yet, but the signs are certainly pointing in the right direction for the first time in a while.

J.A. Happ had his third straight quality start, and is looking more and more like a pitcher that you can afford to have on your roster.  Happ allowed just two runs over seven innings, struck out five, and his ERA for the season is now under three.  Happ is just what the doctor ordered for the pitching starved Phillies, and he is nearly single handedly keeping them ahead in the NL East.  If Happ is available and you are in any need of pitching I would certainly consider adding him.

John Lackey pitched a hell of a game and now has two straight good starts as he tries to get back on track from his season opening injury.  I have long thought that Lackey is one of the more underrated pitchers in all of baseball, but undoubtedly has struggled with injury concerns over the past two seasons.  Lackey hadn’t been the pitcher we have become accustomed to over the years when he came back, but I believe this recent streak is a sign of things to come.  It might be too late to buy low on Lackey, but it doesn’t hurt to try to see if his owner is still a little skeptical on his future.

Adam Lind hit his 16th homer of the year, and the questions will arise again about his future.  Is this a breakout season for Lind or just a one year wonder.  I think it is somewhere in the middle.  While I feel that Lind is going to be a quality player going forward, I don’t think that he will be a consistent 30-35 homer kind of guy.  Lind has a heck of a chance to get to 30 jacks this year, but he is on pace for 35+ and I can’t see him reaching that.

Leo Nunez looks like he is now healthy enough to be the closer for the Marlins as long as Lindstrom will be out.  After Dan Meyer got the first few chances, Nunez has gotten the last couple saves and he is looking pretty good.  Nunez didn’t allow a hit or a walk and struck out two.  If for some reason he hasn’t been added in your league, absolutely pick him up.

Jordan Zimmerman was good again, but again the Nationals weren’t good enough to get him a win to show for his effort.  Zimmerman allowed two runs over six innings and struck out six.  The kid has five straight starts that he has allowed two runs or less. Unfortunately he has only one win to show for it.  He is a good pitcher to own….unless you need wins.

Ricky Romero continues to pitch well, but for some reason I’m still not jumping on the bandwagon.  Romero has an ERA under 3.00, WHIP of 1.24, and he is 6-3.  What is there not to like?  I still go back to his minor league statistics.  I know that you can’t put total stock in those numbers, but I can’t forget them.  I have picked him up and pitched him, but I am just waiting for the implosion.

The Orioles might have blown his win, but Brad Bergeson pitched well yet again.  Bergeson allowed just one run over eight innings and struck out six.  After allowing four runs to the Nationals on May 24th, Bergeson’s ERA was 5.49.  Seven starts and four straight wins later, Bergeson’s ERA is now sitting at 3.53.  Now I feel the need to point out that he faced Philly (his bad start), the Mariners twice, Atlanta, and Washington during this streak, but today was versus the Red Sox.  I am not drinking the Kool-Aid just yet, but I have poured it into the glass.

Mike Pelfrey gave the Mets just what they needed, a huge outing from a starting pitcher.  He threw 7.2 shutout innings, walked just two and struck out six. It was his best and longest outing in quite a while, and although I would like to trust Pelfrey, I am not adding him to my teams.  The Mets are just so riddled by injuries right now that I don’t trust that they can put any kind of consistent offense together (like tonight’s one run), and thus their starters have to be perfect in order to win.  He’s decent, not great, but certain times he is very good.  I wish you luck figuring out when those times might be.

Jason Hammel has been a great addition to the Rockies pitching staff, but I still do not have enough faith in him to start him every time out.  He pitched a full eight innings today, allowed just one run and struck out five.  He didn’t deserve the loss that dropped his record to 5-4, but that is where he stands.  He has now allowed three runs or less in eight of his last ten starts, but his career numbers say that this is not for real.  His ERA has been well into the 5.00s throughout his career, so there has to be a correction to this great run that he is on.

Dallas Braden now has nine straight starts that he has allowed three runs or less, the problem being that tonight was his first win in his last five starts.  He also isn’t a huge strikeout pitcher, so his value is limited.  He is helping you in ERA and WHIP (1.26), but wins and Ks he isn’t bringing much to the table.  Braden is a decent guy to have as your sixth pitcher, but if he is higher than that, you may need to improve your pitching staff.

Randy Wells is another guy who has been pitching pretty well that I am just not sold on based on his minor league statistics.  Explain to me how a guy who had three seasons of an ERA over 4.00 and didn’t even start exclusively can come up and get major league hitters out.  It just doesn’t add up to me.  However, you can not argue with the fact that he has won three straight starts and has an ERA under 2.50.  I’m standing by my opinion that Wells will come back to earth sometime in the near future.

Jose Contreras had a great outing after it seemed he was going back to being the average pitcher that we all know him as.  Contreras threw eight innings, allowed two runs and struck out eight.  I do not put any stock into Contreras going forward.  He might be 56 years old for all we know, and I don’t trust him to pitch well consistently.  Don’t fall into the trap.

I mentioned on tonight’s Fantasy Baseball Tonight podcast that Erik Bedard might pitch on Saturday.  That has now been edited that he will throw a simulated game on Friday, and could start on Tuesday now against the Orioles.  He would be on a pitch limit of 80, and this start is not set in stone yet, so don’t go activating Bedard just yet.

As of now Brandon Webb will avoid shoulder surgery and hopes to return in September.  I am skeptical that a team going nowhere will bring back their ace pitcher with just a few weeks left.  If you have DL spots left I would stash him, but if not, I am torn about what to do with him.

Aramis Ramirez will begin a rehab assignment on Friday and hopes to return ot the Cubs lineup on Monday.  A guy like Aramis who has a history of injury could possibly have setbacks before he is activated, but as of now you might get your 3B back next week.

Nelson Cruz left tonight’s game with a stiff back, and it is too soon to know if this injury will cost him any time.  I never like to see an athlete have trouble with his back, so I am a bit concerned, but I am not ready to give any advice out until I hear more.  Hopefully Cruz won’t have to miss any games.

Alexei Ramirez also left the game tonight with an injured finger and his manager has already said that he will sit out Thursday’s game.  Ramirez has really turned it on this month, so his fantasy owners (me included) are really hoping that this is nothing.  He is also supposed to undergo x-rays, so hold your breath that the news is good.

Newly acquired Cardinal Mark DeRosa will miss three to four games with a strained tendon in his wrist.  Hopefully that is all that he will miss and the trade of Chris Perez wasn’t for nothing.  Keep DeRosa on your bench throughout the weekend.

John Smoltz

What can we expect from Johan Santana while the entire Mets’ offense is on the DL?  He must have so much pressure on himself to perform, that perhaps he will go into a funk as well. He has now lost three of his last four starts, and was less than stellar on Tuesday.  Santana allowed four earned runs over six innings, walked four and struck out four.  The walks are so not like Santana that you have to figure that the trend won’t continue.  If you have worries about Santana, take a look at his career second half numbers, that should make you feel better.

Joe Saunders has had a pattern of one good start, one bad start.  Unfortunately for his owners, this was his turn to be a bad start.  Saunders allowed eight runs over just 3.2 innings, walked five and struck out only two.  He still is on pace to win 15 games, but given his second half last year, I’m not sure if he will reach that number.  If you can get a good return for him in a trade, I would certainly consider moving Saunders.  I still think he is good enough that I wouldn’t just flat out drop him.

Bronson Arroyo got off to a pretty good start, but has been struggling badly of late.  He gave up five earned runs on Tuesday, and has now allowed five runs or more in three of his last four starts.  Arroyo is not a guy that I would hold on my roster unless your league has 16 teams or more.  If Arroyo gets a matchup against a weak hitting NL teams I would give him a start, but other than that I would leave him in free agency.

Martin Prado had a great 4/5 game including the winning hit, but don’t fall into the trap of picking up the hot hand.  Prado has never really been a full-time player, and while he might be earning some playing time with his recent success, there is no way that it will continue.  He is a fine part time player, but if he were to play everyday I guarantee his numbers will suffer.  Leave him in free agency, that is where he belongs.

Ross Ohlendorff has now given up three runs or less in four of his last five starts after his Tuesday outing.  He shut the Cubs out for seven innings and struck out eight batters.  Ohlendorff is not anywhere near that kind of strikeout pitcher, as he only had 44 in his previous 89 innings.  It was impressive that he was so good against the Cubbies, but this isn’t a guy that I would pick up unless I was in an NL only league.

Gordon Beckham had his second consecutive three hit game, and his second consecutive two RBI game.  The kid has a ton of potential that I have talked about in these articles before, and now he is starting to put it together some.  I still don’t believe that he is ready to be a consistent fantasy force, but all those Ofers that he took when he came up are likely behind him.  He is worth having on your team (and in keeper leagues is a must have), but I just don’t know that he will help you on a daily basis.

Mailing List

I’m not going to stop bringing up the mailing list until I get a day where I don’t get a request to join it. For those of you who haven’t seen it yet, when I find news earlier in the day I will send an email to you about whatever it might be. If you were on the mailing list you would have found out about the callups of Matt Wieters, Fernando Martinez, Nolan Reimold and others. The trade of Nate McLouth, and injuries to Jose Reyes, etc. This mailing list is your way to get a step up on your competition. Anyone who is on the list, please leave a comment below on whether you think that you have benefitted from the list. Send an email to either fantasybaseballtonight@gmail.com or fightingchancefantasy@gmail.com and put Mailing List in the subject line.

As always, your comments and questions are welcome at fightingchancefantasy@gmail.com. I guarantee a response within 18 hours. Also, don’t miss the “Fantasy Baseball Tonight” podcast four nights a week from Monday-Thursday. The Big Show on Wednesday is co-hosted by Todd Farino of fantasybaseballsearch.com, RC Rizza of junkyardjake.com and myself, Ryan Hallam at fightingchancefantasy.com. To hear the show go to www.blogtalkradio.com/the_true_guru. You can also hear me weekly on the Tuesday Night show. Join me with Jeff Mans every Tuesday night at 10pm EST for all the the info and craziness we can pack into one hour. A can’t miss if you plan on winning your league.

Rich Harden

I have a very exciting announcement.  Tomorrow I will be involved in a very exciting project with Steve Gardner with the USA Today.  Instead of the usual chat where you send in a question and hope that it gets answered, we will be having a free flowing chat with anyone who joins us.  You can see the announcement for the event here.  It will be starting at noon EST on Tuesday.

Jacoby Ellsbury is quietly catching up to Carl Crawford in the major league stolen base standings.  Crawford stole his 40th base of the year, which is an astounding number, but Ellsbury swiped two to get up to 33 on the year.  He will bring you very little in home runs (three to this point) or RBI (24 through today), but he is hitting nearly .300 and he is among the elite in steals.

Jon Lester is now scorching hot.  He now has six straight starts in which he has given up three runs or less, and in four of those he has struck out at least eight batters.  He is striking out guys at a higher rate than he normally does, so don’t be surprised if that rate falls back a bit.  But Lester is a top 20 pitcher, and should be treated that way.  He should strike out 175 guys and win at least 16 games.

Scott Rolen was a guy that I wrote about ten days ago that I had little confidence in, but I need to edit that a bit.  If you are counting on him to be this good and stay healthy all year long, you might be disappointed.  However, if you are in need of an option at third base for a while, I would definitely give him a try while he is hot.  Rolen has had a solid major league career, he has just had a hard time staying healthy over the past couple years and his power isn’t what it used to be.

Many people were excited about Chris Perez being traded to the Indians, thinking that perhaps he would take over for Kerry Wood as closer.  Two problems with that theory.  One, the Indians paid Kerry Wood a lot of money, and while he hasn’t been good, he will need to be Brad Lidge bad to be replaced in my opinion.  Second, Chris Perez showed nothing while in St. Louis that makes you think he is ready to be a closer. He is a good strikeout pitcher, but his ERA was over 4.00.  He came in tonight for the first time as an Indian and hit two batters and gave up four earned runs in two-thirds of an inning.  If you are desperate for saves and all the closers are taken, perhaps he might be worth a look, but don’t be too confident in him.

J.J. Hardy is still hitting.  He had four hits, including his eighth homer of the year (which was a bomb by the way), three of which have come in the last ten days.  He also had two doubles, and has had two hits or more in three of his last four games.  I believe that he will be a reliable hitter going forward, and should finish the season with at least 20 home runs.  If you need any help at shortstop, Hardy should no longer be available.

Looks like the clock struck midnight on Fernando Nieve and his Cinderella season.  Nieve, who hadn’t started a game in years, was 3-0 for the Mets, including the game that I went to last week (thanks Cards for showing up!) but he might have woken up tonight against the Brewers.  Nieve allowed just three runs, but also lasted only 3.1 innings, walked one and struck out one.  Like I said, he hadn’t started a game since 2006, you would think if he was any good, SOMEONE would have picked him up in the last two years.

Casey McGehee continued his scorching hot June, and perhaps he will be worth having on your team after all. With his grand slam on Monday, he now has five homers this month, along with 18 RBI.  Last season in AAA he had 12 homers and 92 RBI, so he isn’t a stiff, but keep your expectations under control.  He could be a nice contributor, but don’t expect him to do this well again in July.

David Murphy homered for the third time in five games for the Texas Rangers, and it looks as though perhaps he is healthy again, and could be a viable player again.  Murphy was once a semi-hyped prospect for the Red Sox and was shipped to Texas for Eric Gagne.  Murphy hit 17 homers, drove in 74 runs, and stole seven bases in only 108 games last year before a hernia ended his season.  Keep an eye on Murphy.  If he gets hot, he could be worth having at the end of your roster.

Roy Halladay might have taken the loss on Monday, but he had a successful return to the mound for the Blue Jays.  Halladay allowed just two runs over six innings and struck out seven.  He’s one of the best pitchers in baseball, I don’t think I need to tell you to start him every time out.

Carlos Beltran is getting a second opinion on his knee and it is being reported that he might need microfracture surgery which would knock him out for the season.  Hopefully there will be some good news over the next couple of days.

When you figure out Luke Hochevar, please let me know.  Two starts ago he gives up six runs in four innings.  Today he throws seven shutout innings against the Twins.  He did walk four and strikeout only two, but he collected his third win of the season.  He is still far too uncertain for me to have on my team, unless you are in a league with more than 12 teams or an AL-only league.  Hochevar is supposed to be an elite talent, so if he went on an incredible run I wouldn’t be shocked, but I am not expecting it.

Mailing List

I’m not going to stop bringing up the mailing list until I get a day where I don’t get a request to join it. For those of you who haven’t seen it yet, when I find news earlier in the day I will send an email to you about whatever it might be. If you were on the mailing list you would have found out about the callups of Matt Wieters, Fernando Martinez, Nolan Reimold and others. The trade of Nate McLouth, and injuries to Jose Reyes, etc. This mailing list is your way to get a step up on your competition. Anyone who is on the list, please leave a comment below on whether you think that you have benefitted from the list. Send an email to either fantasybaseballtonight@gmail.com or fightingchancefantasy@gmail.com and put Mailing List in the subject line.

As always, your comments and questions are welcome at fightingchancefantasy@gmail.com. I guarantee a response within 18 hours. Also, don’t miss the “Fantasy Baseball Tonight” podcast four nights a week from Monday-Thursday. The Big Show on Wednesday is co-hosted by Todd Farino of fantasybaseballsearch.com, RC Rizza of junkyardjake.com and myself, Ryan Hallam at fightingchancefantasy.com. To hear the show go to www.blogtalkradio.com/the_true_guru. You can also hear me weekly on the Tuesday Night show. Join me with Jeff Mans every Tuesday night at 10pm EST for all the the info and craziness we can pack into one hour. A can’t miss if you plan on winning your league.

Boom or bust…

The Florida Marlins have a short history.  That history though has had some success (1997, 2003) only to be followed by the revamping of the roster due to economic reasons.  Today, the Marlins payroll remains low, with young arms like Chris Volstad, Josh Johnson, Ricky Nolasco, and Sean West join young position players like Hanley Ramirez and Jeremy Hermida.  Another super athlete could be on the way, and some scouts have compared him to the great Dave Winfield.   That’s high billing for a player this young, but he bears watching:

Player Profile Of The Week

Mike Stanton

Position:  OF

Team:  Florida Marlins

Birthdate:  11/8/1989

Bats: R

Throws: R

Heightt:  6-5

Weight:  225 lbs.

Draft:  2^nd round (76^th overall) 2007

Mike Stanton is a serious athlete.  Not to be confused with the left handed specialist of the great Yankees teams of the late 90s, Stanton was a football, basketball and baseball player in high school, much like former Yankees star Dave Winfield.    Stanton was recruited by USC football coach Pete Carroll after being a standout wide receiver in high school.  He was also the starting center for the basketball team.  Stanton opted for baseball, and by all accounts he has made the right choice.  Stanton dominated his first year in professional baseball playing for the Greensboro Grasshoppers of the South Atlantic league, low A level in 2008.  The numbers were ultra impressive, leaving one to wonder if there was a typo.  Stanton hit a minor league best 39 home runs, drove in 97 runs, and led the league with 286 total bases and slugged .611.  Stanton has a very aggressive approach at the plate and did strike out 153 times, but had a much better second half in 2008.  The Marlins opted to begin Stanton in High Class A in 2009, and the power numbers continued.  In his first 180 bats of 2009 in the Florida State League, Stanton blasted 12 home runs and had an OPS of .968 and adding 28 walks to the mix for a .390 OBP.   The Marlins quickly promoted Stanton, and he is currently playing for the Class AA Jacksonville Suns of the Southern League.  It has been a rougher go of it there for Stanton, as he is currently hitting just .241 with two home runs in 61 at bats there.   Those home runs, however, have come in the past three games, suggesting that Stanton has made some adjustments to the new level.

Frank’s Projections and Estimated time of Arrival:

Stanton should be a regular part of the Marlins by 2011.  The classic power hitter profile is there since Stanton has an extremely quick bat and great size and strength.  The drawback of Stanton is his aggressive approach at the plate, which he has worked hard on and is learning the strike zone and making adjustments.   This is a prospect that must be watched in Class AA and if he plays any games at the Class AAA level, since the cost cutting Marlins are not afraid to play their prospects at the major league level.  The Marlins are getting a new stadium in 2011, and I fully expect Stanton to be a part of that mix.   Some scouts are concerned with Stanton’s strikeout rates, one even worried that Stanton will “flail away” at pitches at higher levels.  I see a prime time power hitter who is finding his away at an early age.  Not even Miguel Cabrera put up the numbers at age 18 that Stanton has.   If you like high risk high reward in your life, this is the prospect for you.

The Korner’s Final Projection

based on 550 Abs and full potential upside

.265 batting average
35  Home Runs
95  RBI
.365 OBP %
.512 SLG%
.877 OPS%
145 Ks