tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3231753122458310599Wed, 13 Mar 2024 23:46:21 +0000Fedinflationjob datareal estateretail salesunemployment claimsADPCPIGDPNational Association of RealtorsU.S. Labor Departmentconsumer confidencecrude oilcrude oil inventoryhome salespayroll surveyhttp://stock-compass.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.com (Jeff Springer)Blogger26125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3231753122458310599.post-2892056980423792479Wed, 04 Feb 2009 21:33:00 +00002009-02-04T16:46:43.061-05:00Amidst the torrent of bad economic news, a hint of a beginning bottom in the real estate market. The National Association of Realtors reported that home resales increased 6.3% to 87.7 in December for the first improvement since August. Analysts had expected no improvement in sales for December following an originally reported decrease of 4% in November.Home prices must be getting more attractive http://stock-compass.blogspot.com/2009/02/improvement-in-existing-home-sales.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Jeff Springer)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3231753122458310599.post-5279729654419574827Wed, 21 Jan 2009 20:25:00 +00002009-01-21T16:29:14.578-05:00Last Friday, the Labor Department reported a 0.7% drop in their consumer price index during December. The index fell at a record amount during November making the inflation in this period the lowest it has been since 1954.  It is amazing that this is happening despite governments all over the world expending economic stimulus to help their sagging economies.  The Federal Reserve's report of M1 (http://stock-compass.blogspot.com/2009/01/governments-economic-stimulus-and.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Jeff Springer)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3231753122458310599.post-8394674231702411997Mon, 05 Jan 2009 21:36:00 +00002009-01-05T17:22:00.102-05:00Today, the Commerce Department reported a 0.6% fall in November's construction spending. This was better then the 1.3% drop that analysts had expected. A surprising 0.7% rise in non-residential building activity partially offset a 4.2% loss in housing construction. If business are increasingly building to expand, then the economy must not be as bad as is generally thought.The real-estate stock http://stock-compass.blogspot.com/2009/01/improvement-in-business-construction.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Jeff Springer)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3231753122458310599.post-9023527042469371423Fri, 19 Dec 2008 18:08:00 +00002008-12-19T19:05:11.946-05:00Today, President Bush offered the U.S. automobile manufacturers bailout loans so that their management would not be forced into bankruptcy.  He said that he offered the loans because given the bad economy, it would be improper to allow the auto manufacturers to go out of business. But, bankruptcy does not necessarily mean that companies disolve with no buyers. Companies are forced out of businesshttp://stock-compass.blogspot.com/2008/12/bankruptcy-does-not-mean-going-out-of.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Jeff Springer)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3231753122458310599.post-8924190084967907845Wed, 17 Dec 2008 17:19:00 +00002008-12-17T13:52:48.281-05:00The Federal Reserve cut the overnight bank rate yesterday (called the federal-funds rate) from 1% down to 0% to 0.25%.  Clearly, there is very little room left to cut. But, is it likely that this latest rate cut will improve economic conditions? The current round of interest rate cuts began in August, 2007. Clearly, these cuts have not stopped the current economic deterioration. The stock market http://stock-compass.blogspot.com/2008/12/fed-rate-cut-to-near-zero-good-or-bad.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Jeff Springer)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3231753122458310599.post-7971250743141992909Mon, 15 Dec 2008 14:19:00 +00002008-12-15T09:54:35.711-05:00Over the last couple of weeks, there have been a couple of occasions when the stock market has gone up despite being presented with awful economic news. This is a very bullish sign. After all, the stock market is a pricing mechanism for future economic growth. Since October 10, all three major stock indexes have moved sideways. This pattern, called a "base" by traders, is frequently preparatory http://stock-compass.blogspot.com/2008/12/bad-economic-data-but-stock-market-goes.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Jeff Springer)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3231753122458310599.post-8342257225215135770Thu, 27 Nov 2008 15:56:00 +00002008-11-27T11:45:47.734-05:00Just released weekly new-unemployment claims from the Labor Department show a modest reduction from last week's 16-year high but are still at recessionary levels. Durable goods orders have fallen for three straight months.Personal income increased by 0.3% but consumer spending plunged 1% in October for the fourth straight monthly decline. Consumer spending accounts for 70% of economic http://stock-compass.blogspot.com/2008/11/better-times-ahead.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Jeff Springer)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3231753122458310599.post-4584423578199847646Mon, 27 Oct 2008 17:18:00 +00002008-10-27T13:36:48.280-04:00It may be that the price of real estate has fallen enough to attract buyers. Price will go up when the existing high inventory levels go back to normal. The high level of foreclosures accelerates this process. Banks generally don't have the expertise or staff to take care of the houses they own due to foreclosure. Many of these bank-owned houses have fallen into such disrepair that they will havehttp://stock-compass.blogspot.com/2008/10/first-glimmer-of-hope-in-real-estate.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Jeff Springer)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3231753122458310599.post-8182989201713144251Wed, 22 Oct 2008 16:17:00 +00002008-10-22T12:28:56.623-04:00Crude Oil is used for much more than merely heating houses or gasoline for cars. Uses include plastics and cosmetics, for example. At its high in July, crude was over 147 - right now it's 68.20. Gasoline was 3.58 in mid July - now it's 1.57. Of course this is the futures wholesale price. The retail price here in New Jersey is roughly 30 cents higher. That equates to gasoline in NJ less than $2.00http://stock-compass.blogspot.com/2008/10/oil-and-gasoline-inventories-up-again.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Jeff Springer)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3231753122458310599.post-2316708719654662247Wed, 01 Oct 2008 13:46:00 +00002008-10-01T10:14:34.508-04:00Big media and elected politicians from both parties have been warning that a depression is iminent if a bailout of financial companies impaired by sub-prime toxic bonds is not passed soon. Actually, immediately! Day after day, these warnings were not obeyed by investors in the stock market. For one day, it looked like the populace was listening as the stock market lost 8% in one day when the http://stock-compass.blogspot.com/2008/10/another-depression-or-political-fear.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Jeff Springer)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3231753122458310599.post-5063134872209763834Tue, 09 Sep 2008 20:07:00 +00002008-09-10T09:28:57.785-04:00GDPjob datareal estateRecent evidence suggests the economy is still growing since the 2nd quarter GDP was released as a 3.3% gain. But real estate continues to deteriorate, the unemployment rate hit a 5-year high and inflation has been soaring.Yesterday, the Commerce Department released its wholesale inventories report. They said that inventories climbed 1.4% after increasing by a downwardly revised 0.9% in June. The http://stock-compass.blogspot.com/2008/09/economy-rolls-along-dragged-down-by.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Jeff Springer)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3231753122458310599.post-8218466728661256574Thu, 28 Aug 2008 15:38:00 +00002008-08-28T12:39:37.844-04:00On August 22nd, Fed Chairman Bernanke said that he supports analysts' expectations that he will leave rates unchanged despite his acknowledged "jump" in inflation to a 17-year high (as measured by the CPI - consumer price index). The Fed must enforce price stability along with helping the economy. Bernanke is afraid that if he increases rates in order to stop inflation he will hurt the currentlyhttp://stock-compass.blogspot.com/2008/08/bernanke-gets-it-wrong-again.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Jeff Springer)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3231753122458310599.post-1038425797646872464Tue, 05 Aug 2008 16:36:00 +00002008-08-05T13:21:52.949-04:00In July, the S&P 500 lost 0.7% while GDP for the second quarter improved to an annualized gain of 1.9%. Only six of twenty-five major market sectors went down in July. This was a big change from June when twenty-two of the twenty-five sectors were in the red. Major losses by only two sectors - insurance (-28%) and energy (-34%) - could explain the stock market's July losses. But most of the http://stock-compass.blogspot.com/2008/08/economy-and-stocks-under-covers-broad.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Jeff Springer)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3231753122458310599.post-5103403748064664697Tue, 22 Jul 2008 15:32:00 +00002008-07-22T12:44:27.332-04:00The biggest U.S. banks and financial institutions with sub-prime difficulties recently returned the last quarter's earnings results suggesting we may be moving past the sub-prime problem.Merrill Lynch lost $2 billion in their first quarter due to mortgage losses but only $1.3 billion in their 2nd quarter reported on July 17th.Wells Fargo reported a 21% decrease in 2nd quarter income on July 16th http://stock-compass.blogspot.com/2008/07/sub-prime-mess-scorecard-mildly.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Jeff Springer)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3231753122458310599.post-4771847614391289553Wed, 16 Jul 2008 19:02:00 +00002008-07-16T19:48:39.256-04:00The Labor Department reported today a 1.1% rise last month in consumer prices. This was the second highest increase in 26 years (exceeded only by a 1.3% rise after Katrina caused by the tremendous boost in energy prices). Even after subtracting food and energy, the "core" inflation increased 0.3% in June. Prices increased 5% in the last 12 months and 2.4% for "core" over the same period. This "http://stock-compass.blogspot.com/2008/07/2nd-highest-inflation-in-26-years.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Jeff Springer)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3231753122458310599.post-5349567272523726604Tue, 15 Jul 2008 13:07:00 +00002008-07-15T09:26:57.853-04:00Today the U.S. Dollar sank to an historic low, edging below the former bottom of April 22nd. The dollar had been in a bullish recovery after April 22nd until the Federal Reserve refused to raise rates at their June 25th meeting. They had earlier said they would defend the dollar. Instead, the dollar plunged back to its overall bearish trend channel originating last October.While the dollar was http://stock-compass.blogspot.com/2008/07/dollar-drops-to-historic-low-while.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Jeff Springer)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3231753122458310599.post-967863305845878931Fri, 04 Jul 2008 16:36:00 +00002008-07-05T10:24:10.741-04:00crude oilpayroll surveyunemployment claimsYesterday, Europe's central bank raised interest rates by 1/4 of a point but made it clear that they are unlikely to continue doing so. This seemed to energize the U.S. Dollar and push it back up to the bottom of its bullish trend channel. After making an historic bottom on April 22nd the U.S. Dollar rallied into mid June when it started to retreat. The day after the Fed left interest rates http://stock-compass.blogspot.com/2008/07/us-dollar-up-big-on-wednesday-after.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Jeff Springer)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3231753122458310599.post-136373098996035174Fri, 27 Jun 2008 13:55:00 +00002008-06-27T10:32:01.507-04:00The U.S. Commerce Department released surprisingly positive consumer spending, personal income and personal savings figures today. Personal income went up a seasonally adjusted 1.9% during May compared to April (analysts had expected only a 0.4% gain). Personal spending zoomed up 0.8% in May versus April. Adjusted for inflation, spending was 0.4% - highest since December 2006. Therefore, the http://stock-compass.blogspot.com/2008/06/consumer-gloom-and-doom-real-or.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Jeff Springer)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3231753122458310599.post-2896683634671745971Thu, 26 Jun 2008 19:38:00 +00002008-06-26T21:10:50.941-04:00consumer confidenceFedThe Fed left rates unchanged yesterday despite having recently talking about defending the U.S. Dollar and the threat of increased inflation. After a full day's reflection, the markets' response is clear:all major stock indexes off more than 2 1/4% (Dow -296, S&P 500 -32, and NASDAQ composite -66)the U.S. Dollar off 73.60 to 72.79 since the Fed announcementcrude oil up from 134 to 140 also http://stock-compass.blogspot.com/2008/06/fed-all-talk-no-action.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Jeff Springer)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3231753122458310599.post-3796152550601422211Fri, 13 Jun 2008 14:06:00 +00002008-06-13T10:12:24.242-04:00CPIinflationThe U.S. Labor Department reported the consumer price index (CPI) gained 0.6% in May. Excluding food and gasoline the CPI went up only 0.2% as economists had forecast. The yearly increase of CPI went up to 2.1% just above the Fed's "comfort zone" of roughly 1.5% to 2%.Do you know anyone who lives predominantly on "core" (i.e., no food and no gasoline)? I didn't think so. We will have to wait and http://stock-compass.blogspot.com/2008/06/tame-core-inflation.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Jeff Springer)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3231753122458310599.post-693432045956694846Thu, 12 Jun 2008 18:03:00 +00002008-06-12T14:28:24.116-04:00retail salesThe Commerce Department said today that retail sales increased in May by 1% (economists had only expected a 0.5% rise). They also revised upwards April to 0.4% (from a 0.2% loss) and March to 0.5% (from a 0.2% gain). This suggests economic strength because consumer spending represents 70% of GDP.But the Wall Street Journal claimed that the sales results were due to the recently sent out stimulus http://stock-compass.blogspot.com/2008/06/significant-improvement-in-retail-sales.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Jeff Springer)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3231753122458310599.post-2741453754769897356Thu, 12 Jun 2008 14:24:00 +00002008-06-12T11:46:45.574-04:00crude oil inventoryYesterday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that crude inventories sank by 4.6 million barrels for the week ending June 6th. Analysts had projected only a 900,000 drop. But gasoline inventories increased by 1 million barrels, just under analysts' expectations of a 1.1 million gain. Add to the mix that refineries used less oil for the week and oil imports are down to 9.7 millionhttp://stock-compass.blogspot.com/2008/06/crude-oil-invenentory-up-but-gasoline.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Jeff Springer)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3231753122458310599.post-7183207122768134815Tue, 10 Jun 2008 23:50:00 +00002008-06-10T19:51:53.496-04:00FedinflationFed Chairman Bernanke said today that he was unconcerned by May's 0.5% raise in unemployment but worried that the big rise in crude oil prices "has added to the upside risks to inflation". Why did it take him so long to become concerned about the rise in commodity prices in general and crude oil in particular?Before trying to answer that question, let's remember what has happened to oil recently.http://stock-compass.blogspot.com/2008/06/bernankes-finally-worried-about.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Jeff Springer)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3231753122458310599.post-9186373649107949029Mon, 09 Jun 2008 17:29:00 +00002008-06-10T19:52:40.942-04:00home salesNational Association of Realtorsreal estateToday the National Association of Realtors said their pending sales of previously owned homes index increased 6.3% in April compared to March. Analysts had projected no change in the index. Home sales seem to have picked up in areas where prices have dropped the most. This story is almost identical to an article a week or two ago which described increased home sales in areas hardest hit by http://stock-compass.blogspot.com/2008/06/slight-improvement-in-real-estate.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Jeff Springer)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3231753122458310599.post-4421407585314611703Sun, 08 Jun 2008 21:24:00 +00002008-06-10T19:53:21.869-04:00ADPjob dataU.S. Labor Departmentunemployment claimsThere are four sources of employment data: ADP provides a snapshot of how many jobs it thinks have been added or lost in the U.S. economy based on their managing roughly 1/6 of all non-government payroll jobs. Last Thursday ADP reported an increase of 40,000 jobs in May. So far, good strength in the labor market.The U.S. Labor Department reports once a month on jobs based on their "household http://stock-compass.blogspot.com/2008/06/confusion-in-4-sources-of-employment.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Jeff Springer)0