Financial Post And Essays

Some Concepts of Technical Analysis.

2021-05-20T22:54:00.020+05:30

Pattern Name	Structure	TREND	Stop Loss	Checklist
Bullish Marubuzo		Open = Low Close= High BUY Long	Open Price= SL	3:20 Current Market Price(CMP)= High price of the day. Opening Price=Low price of the day.
Bearish Marubuzo		Open=High Close=Low Sell Short Sell price close to a closing price of Marubozu	Closeprice=SL	Avoid trading at extremely small or long candles(above10%)
Spinning Top		Equal size candles with equal wicks.
The Doji		Non-existent candle with open price=close price		Market can swing either way after Doji.
The paper umbrella		Long lower shadow with small upper body
Hanging Man(Bearish)		Forms at top of the trend. Short Trade. Preceded by an uptrend. Risk-takers the same day initiate at the closing price. For risk-averse initiate close of the next.	High of candle=SL	Note if both patterns are available, the hammer setup is better.
Hammer(Bullish)		Forms at bottom of a trend. Long trade Longer the lower part more bullish the High-risk taker the buy on the same day Low-risk taker on next day.	Low of the hammer= SL	3:20 Risk-taker checks if the open or close price is in the vicinity and the lower shadow length should be twice the real body length.
The shooting star		Reverse paper Umbrella (long upper shadow). Pattern more reliable if the candle is red. Longer the upper wick more bearish the market. Risk-taker initiates trade at the closing price.	High of the pattern=SL	Confirm this current market price is more or less equal to the lower price and the length of the shadow is at least twice the real body. Wait till SL or Target
Bullish engulfing		Formed at bottom of a trend. Multiple candlestick and two-day trading session. Small candle day 1 and relative long candle on day 2 appear to engulf. Traders should go long. Buy price=closing price of green candle day 2.	SL=lowest between P1 and P2.	The prior trend should be a downtrend. Day 1 candle=Red Day 2=Green
Bearish engulfing		Top of trend. Day 1=Green Day 2=Red Traders should look at the shorting.		Bearish engulfing with Doji at top of the trend is highly profitable.
Piercing pattern		More than 50% but less than 100% engulfing in the bullish engulfing pattern.		The trade setup is the same as bullish engulfing.
Dark cloud cover		More than 50% but less than 100% engulfing in the bearish engulfing pattern.		The trade setup is the same as bullish engulfing.
Harami pattern		Two candle setup The first long and second short and second are opposite in color. Trend reversal is possible.
Bullish Harami		Bottom of the trend. Should long on this position. P1=red and long P2=green and short	The lowest low of the pattern should be =SL	Risk takers should initiate trade around the close of P2
Bearish Harami		Top of the trend. Shorting opportunity. P1=green and long P2=red and short Risk takers should short near the close of P2 after ensuring P1 and P2 form a bearish harami.	Highest high b/w P1 and P2= SL	The open price of P2 should be lower than the close of P1 and the close price of P2 should be greater than the open price of P1.
Morning Star		Bullish candlestick pattern which evolves over a three-day period. Formed at bottom of the trend. P1=New low P2=Bear shows dominance with a gap Down. After this Doji or spinning top is formed. P3 green candle opens with a gap up and manages to close above P1 red candle opening In absence of P2’s Doji or spinning top, it appears a P1 and P3bullishulllish engulfing. Look for long.	P1 lowest low should be= SL	Confirmation of morning star on P3. P2 is a Doji or spinning top with a gap down opening and P3 opening should be gap up + current market price should be higher than the opening of P1 lowest low.
Evening Star		The Bearish at the top of the trend. P1= green opens high P2=doji or spinning top P3=opeandown and progress into the red candle. Shortening opportunities.	Highest high of P1, P2, and P3=SL	Short the stock on P3 around close to 3:20 PM After confirming P1 and P3 form an evening star.

The support and resistance

To find the target first need to find the support and resistance.
Resistance is always greater than the current market price.

S&R construction

For intraday and BTST at least 3-6 months data points/
For long-term 12-18 months data points (used for swing trade).
Identify three sticky zones- hesitated to move up or down after a brief up or down move.
Sharp reversal after a particular price point.
Identify at least three price action zones that are at the same level.
Important to find the point in every space in time.
Identify current market price based on which line is s and r.

Volume Basis

Price	Volume	Expectation
IN	IN	bullish
IN	DE	Caution weak hands in buying
DE	IN	bearish
DE	DE	Caution weak hands selling

Volume should be seen with a reference point and it is usually the volume of the average of the last 10 days.

Thumb rule

High vol = todays vol > last 10 day avg
Low vol= todays vol< last 10 day avg

Moving averages(MA)

Avg of the latest 5-day data point.

Simple moving average(SMA)

Line overlay on charts on how averages are behaving.

Exponential moving averages

The newest data point is given more weight.

Rules on moving averages system

R1= go long when the current market price is greater than 50-days EMA. invest till necessary sell conditions are satisfied.
R2= exit the long position when the current market price turns less than 50-day EMA.

MA Crossovers

Use of two types of moving averages.

Short term = 50 day MA
Long term = 100 day MA

Rule 1 = Buy when short term MA above the long term MA

Stay in trade as long as the condition is satisfied.

Rule 2 = Exit the long position when short turn MA moved lower than long term

MA.

EMA combination

9day with 21 days = short term trade
25 day with 50 days = medium-term trade
100 day with 200 day= long term trade

INDICATORS

Leading- signals a reversal of trend or start of a new trend in advance.

Ex- oscillator

Lagging- signals the occurrence of a reversal or a new trend after it has occurred.

Ex- Moving averages

First indicator

Relative strength index(RSI)

Used for trend reversal and oversold and overbought price areas identification.

RSI Setup

Oscillates between 0 to 100 or 20 to 80 (same).

When reading 0 or 20 security is oversold and ready for an upward correction.

When reading 80 or 100 security is overbought and expected to be a sell-off.

RSI is always used along with another candlestick pattern to study the market.

Second Indicator

Moving average convergence and divergence(MACD)

(Short term avg - long term avg) =

- downward movement = Divergence = bullish momentum

+ upward movement = convergence = bearish momentum

The advanced version (9-day signal line) is the EMA of the MACD.

MACD System - Difference b/w short- long = 12-26

9-day EMA of the MACD

The sentiment is bullish when the MACD line crosses above 9 days EMA where MACD > 9-day line.

The sentiment is bearish When the MACD line crosses below the 9-day MACD line.

Third indicator

Bollinger Band(BB)

To identify overbought and oversold levels.

It has 3 components- Middle line = 20 day SMA

Upper band=+2 standard deviation of the middle line

Lower band= -2 standard deviation from the middle line

Ex- If SMA = 7800 and SD= 75

UB = 7800+75*2= 7950

LB = 7800-75*2= 7650

The Dow Theory

The double bottom and top formation

Considered a reversal pattern.

It is considered bullish hence one should look at buying opportunities.

Similar top formation but bearish in nature.

The triple bottom and top formation

Same with three bottom and top formations.

The trading range

Provides multiple opportunities to trade both ways ( long and short).

Range breakout

Traders will initiate a long position when the stock price breaks above resistance and short when breaks down below the support level.

Look for a true breakout

Volumes are high on the breakout or immediately after the breakout.

After breakout momentum is high.

Flag Formation

Big move with short correction.

Risk To Reward Ratio(RRR)

(entry - stop loss/exit - entry)

Look for trades that have rich RRR >1.3 or higher.

While trading patterns, structures, and volumes should be taken into consideration with a check on RRR.

The Checklist

Step - 1

Before initiating the trade check for this list.

The stock should form a recognizable candlestick pattern.

S&R should confirm the trade.

Volume should confirm.

Step - 2

Charting software - Paid - Metastick, Ambibroker.

Free - Yahoo Finance and Google Finance.

Step -3

Timeframe

As the thumb rule higher the timeframe, the more reliable the trading signal is.

For a swing, the trader's back period is 6 or 9 months.

For scalper, he uses a 1 or 5 min timeframe and at least 5- day data.

For while plotting S&R levels you should increase the lookback period to 2 years.

Step - 4

The opportunity universe.

Parameter to look upon to identify best stocks -

Ensure the stock has liquidity by looking at bid-ask spreads, the lesser the spread the more liquid the stock is.

Make sure that the stock is in the EQ section (available for day trade).

Nifty 50 and Sensex are called index stocks.

Step - 5

The shortlisting period

Look at all the charts of stocks in the opportunity universe.

Look at the last 3-4 candles, recognize the pattern is developed.

If you find a shortlist for further investigation.

Evaluation Process

After the stocks are shortlisted now proceed for detailed analysis giving 15-20 min to each chart.

Look for prior trends and if everything seems good look for volumes> 10-day average.

Check For S&R

Long trade(support) and short trade(resistance). If S&R level > more than 4%

Away stop evaluating the charts and proceed to the next.

Look for Dow Patterns

After that calculate RRR. MIn RRR>1.5

At last look for MACD and RSI indicators.

Fibonacci retracements

The Fibonacci ratios, i.e. 61.8%, 38.2%, and 23.6%, help the trader identify the retracement’s possible extent.

I’ve encircled two points on the chart, at Rs.380 where the stock started its rally, and at Rs.489, where the stock prices peaked. I would now define the move of 109 (380 – 489) as the Fibonacci up move. If this stock continues to correct further, the trader can watch out for the 38.2% and 61.8% levels.

Notice in the example shown below, the stock had retraced up to 61.8%, which coincides with 421.9, before it resumed the rally.

We can arrive at 421 by using simple math as well –

Total Fibonacci up move = 109

61.8% of Fibonacci up move = 61.8% * 109 = 67.36

Retracement @ 61.8% = 489- 67.36 = 421.6

Is India ready for smart cities?

2020-06-18T19:47:00.000+05:30

If wishes were horses, beggars would ride. If we can get things done by merely dreaming about it then India would have been a developed country long ago. But the thing with smart cities and bullet trains in India is that it is an overly hyped concept of political parties with no ground reality just to fulfil their political mileage at the time of elections.

But the question of Is India ready for smart cities? It is the most important question asked at the time of elevating environmental problems and having 13 out of 25 most polluted cities in the world in India. Rather it is the need of the hour for the government to look into the concept of smart cities with pugnacious attitude and with a sense of clairvoyance for the development of future generations. It is a stark reality that India’s population will grow two folds till 2050. The only way to combat all of these problems is to take the concept of smart cities seriously.

But the thing is that we cannot merely pluck the future of smart cities just out of a crystal ball. The government needs to take the leaf out from other countries like UAE, Israel and take help from them to achieve the desired goal in minimum possible time.

The government also needs to work on other major problems abreast which will further strengthen the foundation of smart cities. These are to provide opportunities to the middle class and help to uplift them as they play a major role in structured urban complexes. Further, the government needs to work on the grass-root level for creating employment, removing poverty and to bring as much FDI as possible.

Until the government does not work on these issues, the future of smart cities is a far cry. So, it is the right time for the government to stop the self-congratulatory frog in the well attitude that has held us long back and start working on the marshall plan of smart cities. The only thing is to uplift the society and increase the purchasing power of the population and the smart cities will follow. Yes, it’s true the task is not a hunky-dory but other countries in the world have done this and it's the time for India to bring the dream of smart cities to reality because it will be needed for survival sooner or later.

Should the state intervene in the following of tradition by the people?

2020-06-10T17:37:00.001+05:30

The topic of should the state intervene in the following of tradition by the people is more or less the conflict between the Government Vs God, or the state should leave the religion alone?

The preamble of the Indian constitution has the word “Secular”, implying that it will not discriminate and patronise in the profession of any religion. As according to the constitution India is a vibrant secular country and the government should not interfere in any religious or cultural practice unless there is a violation of basic human rights as enshrined in the constitution. But there have also been tensions between the secular government vs minority cultural practices, as in the recent case of Triple Talaq and the decision to allow women to enter the Sabarimala Temple.

More to this, the only concern is not just the state leaving religion alone but to give the right to an individual whether to believe in one God or many God. The new scenario of targeting a certain religious group to gain political mileage definitely hurts the ethos of secular and democratic India.

It is high time for the state to stop painting the issue of God vs Government with the same brush to have political vantage in elections. It should rather work on the matter of how to cultivate a sense of togetherness among different religions and help them to have equal opportunity to practice their religion and spread goodwill for the betterment of the society.

Nuclear weapon testing is considered to be dangerous. It is a deterrent for war.

2020-06-09T19:50:00.001+05:30

Nuclear weapon testing is considered to be dangerous. It is a deterrent for war.

On July 16 1945, New Mexico when the Trinity explosion was successfully completed, Robert J. Oppenheimer said, “ Now I become Death, the destroyer of the world”. He, without knowing the phantom risk and real risk of the atomic bomb, realised that he has developed a recipe of failure and earth will not be a safe haven anymore.

After the Hiroshima and Nagasaki nuclear explosion, the words proved to be true and it marked the beginning of the atomic age. Since then the rate of nuclear testing has increased tremendously as a part of the country's self-defence program. Especially between the superpowers like Russia and the United States. Reports suggest that during the period of 1953 to 1968 these two countries have tested so many nuclear weapons that it has created a negative impact on the environment. As most of the nuclear tests have been tested in the northern hemisphere, study shows that it’s natural and aquatic life is contaminated with radioactive elements and earthquakes which are a great threat for the survival of the living organism.

Though there have been attempts for preventing excessive testing by different countries, like the Non-Proliferation Treaty which deters countries from illicit use of nuclear weapons and helps in maintaining the balance with nature. But the history of Nuclear weapons since WW2 is full of mishappenings like Chernobyl, costing the lives of thousands of living beings.

Definitely, with increasing nuclear active nations, war has deterred, but there is a much higher risk of extinction of the human species as certain countries like North Korea cannot be trusted with a blind eye. There has always been political and military tension with the US and North Korea, this can trigger the war resulting in the complete extinction of human species with this nuclear invention. This is the only reason that private space research agencies like SpaceX and Virgin are trying to find lives on other planets so that they could save human colonies away from nuclear risk.

Restraining Anxiety and Importance of Mental Health during Isolation

2020-05-23T19:40:00.001+05:30

The halo of ‘invincibility’ that the virus has achieved has made us realise that this is the right occasion to juxtapose a virus with the world’s stockpile of weapons. This is the stark reminder that the most important thing to humans are life, mental health and reintegration with nature.

As the local government and authorities cannot turn a blind eye to the pandemic, to curb the spread of it more and more people are being told to stay home and practice self-isolation. While these measures can help you to improve your physical health but can also have an adverse effect on your mental health. The news of getting sacked out of jobs and emotional email all around the corner can trigger anxiety, loneliness and even depression. Time is even tougher for those having the pre-existing condition of OCD(Obsessive Compulsive Disorder). Albeit, the time is tough but there is a silver lining to it, you can make your mind stronger and restrain your anxiety by realising that your sacrifice of self-isolation is helping thousands who could suffer the same if you haven’t taken this step.

History repeats itself and this is the perfect time to stretch your threshold and prioritize self-care and protect your mental health with your immune system. There are lots of things you can do to keep yourself busy and stay active. As mobile phones have become all-pervasive to our life you can practise digital detox, it will keep you away from stressful and all kinds of news that can affect your mental peace. Meditation and books are the perfect combination to repair and restart your mental strength, as it helps you to stimulate your imagination. It is the perfect time to get out your sweat instead of your suits and try to practice good hygiene and stay fit both mentally and physically.

The stark reality of jobs post-pandemic COVID-19

2020-05-19T11:34:00.002+05:30

The pandemic COVID-19 started in China, while the rest of the world remained oblivious to the crises ahead which could change the course of history. Neither world wars nor 9/11 have impacted the world economy to this extent, but a virus brought the whole world to its knees. Now is the perfect occasion to juxtapose a virus to the world’s stockpile of weapons.

In India, the news of job cuts and slowing down of the economy were all around the corner especially in the automobile sector before the pandemic was even started. But it exacerbated this and took other sectors to its control. As the government had only one arsenal of lockdown to stop this virus from spreading, it resulted in zero demand and break-in consumption cycle which affected most of the manufacturing, IT, travel and hospitality sectors. Further, with no generation of wealth, the only options for the big firms were to shoulder the burden with its employees. This led to emotional and distress emails of job cuts, sacking of employees, asking employees to take long leaves without salaries and slashing of salaries up to 60%. The reports suggest that the job cuts of 15-20% is on the anvil. If the arithmetic and calculation goes right the numbers tot up to 100 million jobless people post-pandemic.

Further, more to it is the highly impacted aviation and hospitality sector. For these sectors, there is no hope as the people will find fear to travel until the vaccines are not made. The carelessness and selfishness of the government to benefit capitalists by not providing hapless migrant workers with proper transportation to their home destination have put them in grave danger as they will be fearful in rejoining the manufacturing industry. This roadblock can create high inefficiency and low production, resulting in inflation.

After, the lockdown is over the government has a herculean task to achieve. But there is beacon hope which could help India to normalcy. The expert suggests that India will have a U-Shaped recovery with a lower plateau period of 3-4 months. The raison d'etre that India will achieve equilibrium early then the rest of the world because it is less dependent on exports, 50-60% of GDP is domestic consumption. The government just needs to bridge a solution to provide cash in hand for informal workers by schemes like MGNREGA and monetary stimulus to business so that they could revive the consumption cycle. And, if the government could encash on companies leaving China, it would create job opportunities shortly and help India revive and strengthen its economy.

Jeff Bezos may become the world’s first trillionaire by 2026

2020-05-18T10:18:00.000+05:30

In the recent study conducted, by Comparisun, of 25 individuals company analysed, only eleven have the chance to become a trillionaire during their lifetime.

According to the study, Jeff Bezos is most likely to become the first trillionaire by 2026 when he will be aged 62. Despite losing an estimated $38 billion in divorce and even more in the pandemic, Jeff is still the richest persons and his net worth growing at a rate of 34% on average to past five years. With a current net worth of 142.8 billion and if the arithmetic goes right he would easily become a trillionaire($1000 billion) by 2026.

There are many other names to this list, India richest Mukesh Ambani could become a trillionaire by 2033 at age 75. Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg could gain this title after 2036 with his current growth rate. Alibaba’s Jack Ma could become a trillionaire in 2030 when he will be aged 65.

For the study, Comparisun analysed the market capitalisation of the highest value companies on the New York Stock Exchange as well as the net worth and percentage of the growth rate of the individual in the past five years.

What will be the impact of mobile phones becoming all-pervasive?

2020-05-16T09:18:00.000+05:30

We often get confused between a smartphone and a mobile phone. A smartphone is a mini-computer which has its own operating software(OS) and is capable of performing intelligent tasks like gaming, Internet of things and calling with the help of an application, whereas mobile phones were made to perform a unique task of calling wirelessly. When Martin Cooper developed this technology in 1973, no one knew that it could be reiterated to such an extent and will affect all walks of life and become all-pervasive. The moot question here is that do smartphones or mobile phone have impacted human life.

The stark reality is that whether we want it or not life is now incomplete without a smartphone. The amount of time an individual invests in a smartphone on various activities such as social media, gaming, and connecting with different people has made it an integral part of his life.

It has become a Hamletian dilemma for humans to decide whether to give up the usage of a smartphone which has impacted us so much or ignoring it all and still continue it with the impacts it has given to the environment and humans themselves.

The pressing concern is to choose between bouquets or brickbats which are equal in number. Yes, smartphones have indeed created a sense of togetherness among us but at the cost of giving less time to family staying with you and yourself also. With this smartphone, you can connect to a billion people by just tap of a button but at the cost of killing and destroying the habitat of millions of birds which get affected with these skyrocketing cell towers. The smartphones have impacted us to such an extent and become all-pervasive that clubs are being made for smartphone addicts so that they can control their desire for using smartphones and give time to themselves.

It is a true fact that the evolution of smartphones was swift and serendipitous for us and we haven’t got enough time to calculate and calibrate its long term impact on us. We often understand when we are on the tread of disaster and this is the time to repair and restart the way we use smartphones and use it in a more balanced way, so that it becomes less pervasive to human life. It will be better to use smartphones to become productive rather than getting busy and use it as an activity to fulfil an unnecessary and time-consuming task.

Billionaire investor Warren Buffet has sold all his airline shares

2020-05-15T10:45:00.000+05:30

The world travel industry has hit a cul de sac as the foundation of the economic edifice has been hit by coronavirus pandemic. As the planes remain grounded for more than two months, it has shredded the stock price of airline companies more the 60% across the globe.

This phase of uncertainty has transmitted a shockwave to the investor as the prediction is that the recovery will be slow and demand will be suppressed, there is no hope of getting the airline industry back on track. This led the billionaire investor Warren Buffet company, Berkshire Hathway to sell all of their airline shares. The conglomerate had an 11% stake in Delta Airlines, 10% in American Airlines, 10% in Southeast Airlines and 9% of United Airline. This announcement was taken after the company lost $50 billion in first-quarter.

Further, to this report say that American Airlines has been working on negative free cash for almost three years. Now after this pandemic, American Airlines net debt stands at $21.5 Billion excluding $4.5 billion of cash stimulus given by the US government to fund the subsidized salaries to staffs and officials.

The world has changed for an airline company and it will be a tough task as those bustling terminals resemble ghost towers and people expect to be scared of flying for a long, long time. It can lead to other investors to follow the suits for survival and sell their stocks at low prices giving these companies, even more, liquidity crunch and

decreasing their chances of revival.

India has more public holidays as compared to other countries. How does this affect as a developing nation?

2020-05-14T09:01:00.000+05:30

With 21 holidays a year, India tops in the world with the countries having the most number of public holidays. The number goes even bigger when weekend holidays are taken into consideration. Arithmetic of these holidays, when compared to its neighbouring countries, has raised a serious concern as India is a developing nation and this leisure to the proletariat affect it in terms of output and efficiency.

India is a diverse nation, with different religions flourishing together. So, most of these public holidays are of religious observance in nature and have respect among their followers. This constitution of India has its commitment towards secularism and gives equality to all religions to celebrate their important occasions with full freedom. As the private sector and the public sector work abreast of the development of the country so these holidays affect the overall efficiency and output of the nation.

The holidays in such a large number can create an adverse effect on the economy but it still has a silver lining to it as it provides a perfect work-life balance in this world full of hyperactivity.

It is said that activity keeps you busy and productivity keeps you free. The most radical solution to this problem could be to make a smart holiday package so that there will be a small number of people always available to perform the important task and rest utilizing the holidays to the fullest. The government should also take a leaf out from other countries that how do they make full use of sunlight by working 6 AM to 5 PM weekly. There is a lot to be done on this issue so that holidays could turn out to be more fruitful and help an individual in improving their life and maintain work-life balance.

Will the flight from economic distress beats the fight against COVID-19 virus?

2020-05-13T09:53:00.000+05:30

Will the flight from economic distress beats the fight against COVID-19 virus?

The economy of India is going to face an output loss of $190 bn(according to Nilesh Shah, MD, Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Company) as the wheels of commerce have been ground to halt. The arithmetic of the GDP of India is about $3 trillion, if it remains shut down for a month with a 100% drop inactivity it will create an output loss of $250 bn but as it is likely to be shut for 47 days it will create an output loss of $190 bn assuming that it will open on May 17.

Albeit, there could be a beacon of hope as the oil price has seen a significant reduction due to less demand in the world, it will provide $40-45 bn of benefit in terms of trade deficit this year. Another way to decrease this is to replace China-made goods with India made products, it will create $20 bn benefit in trade deficit. But still willy-nilly it will create $100 billion or thereabouts of output loss which is a significant amount for a developing country like India. There are a lot of things that the government should work on immediately to revive the economy.

First, is to cover on FDI, if the Indian government can encash on getting capital from foreign firms leaving China and convince them to invest in India, can boost the domestic savings and growth can be back on track in upcoming months. Second, is to provide Fiscal Stimulus to industries which will require grant aid and subsidies to revive their business and give employment to people in distress. Last, one is the Monetary Stimulus which will require a reduction in interest rates so that business can be flooded with liquidity and cash capital problem can be solved. Though it will no be a hunky-dory for the government to revive the economy but still if these three major steps are implemented properly will help to at least repair and restart the economy on a positive note after the lockdown is over.

Is farm loan waiver a solution to farmers distress?

2020-05-05T10:25:00.000+05:30

If you give a man a fish, he eats for a day; If you teach a man to fish, he eats for a lifetime. This should be the motto of our government but unfortunately, the government always gives a temporary solution to a permanent problem as in the case of farm loan waiver.

Small or big farmers in India are completely dependent on monsoons for the productivity of crops. They take loans either from institutional bodies like commercial banks or from illicit local moneylenders at high-interest rates. If the monsoons are good they yield their crops and return the money, but if it goes bad they come in the vicious circle of moneylenders and are never able to repay their debt obligations. When the elections are near, the farm loan waiver is the mega talkathon for the political parties as it is the only arsenal they possess in their manifesto to gain the maximum number of votes.

Prima facie this looks to be the best solution for the kibbutz. But the reality does not seem to hold water when the government think-tank Nitiayog gave their report. They explicitly stated, the reality is that only a small percentage of agrarian take loan from institutional banks while the majority takes a loan from local moneylenders at high-interest rates. The farm loan waiver scheme will only benefit 30-40% of farmers in our country. Further, it impacts the credibility of taking loans, big farmers take unnecessary in the hope of loan getting waived in time of election thus creating a shortage of liquidity for the farmers who need it the most. Also, giving loan waivers in such a significant amount creates a fiscal deficit for the government and hampers the overall growth of the country.

So, instead of having a myopic vision, the government should be clairvoyant about the future problems that farmers are going to face. The most radical solution is that the government should keep its powder dry and work on problems like depleting ground resources, fragmented distribution of land, and giving subsidy on the farming related tools and equipments.

THE NEGATIVE OIL STORY

2020-04-29T16:31:00.001+05:30

In normal economies, the product does not have a negative price. If a company is at loss they just stop production and shut down the unit.

But unfortunately that is not the case with oil, its different. Once an oil well is started, it is costly to shut down permanently or temporarily and then restart. This was the reason the price of oil futures gone done by 300% of the West Texas Intermediate(WTI) not the actual crude oil that you buy from the local gas stations.

Yes, like any other commodities gold, silver you can invest, speculate, or hedge in oil futures. So the question arises what is the oil futures and how can you invest in that? There are basically three major oil futures you can invest in it.

Brent Crude - Roughly two-third of the crude contract around the world is of the Brent. As it is waterborne in nature so it is easier to transport and cheaper to buy.

West Texas Intermediate - The oil extracted from the US oil well and send by pipeline to Cushing, Oklahoma. As supplies are landlocked so it is expensive to ship and buy.

Dubai/Oman - They are slightly lower in quality than Brent or WTI. So they have less demand in the world.

Oil futures help you buy non-physical oil today and it will convert to physical oil after the day your contract expires. If the price at which you bought rises you make a profit else you lose. As an investor, you invest in the rising price of the oil, not the oil itself. Now if your contract expires you sell the contract to someone else and buy for the next month and never collect the oil itself. This is called rolling the future. But what happened with the WTI its storage facility got fulled and all the investors knowing this fact wanted to sell their contract at a discounted price and getting liquidated, as no one wants a physical delivery, so there is no buyer of these contracts. Resulting in the crash of prices of the WTI oil prices.

Big Data: Is it a threat to mankind?

2020-04-29T14:52:00.000+05:30

Steve Jobs once said, "our life moves forward but we understand it backward". Have we ever think over the fact that knowingly or unknowingly piling of so much of our personal data on various online platforms could be perilous for our future. Are people so much vulnerable to the possible misuse of this restored personal data at the hands of vested interest?

In this universe, opposite forces are hell-bent upon destroying the harmony of life and often tend to work for cross purposes only to get their pound of flesh. In fact, these are not to be called competing forces as their act is often against the principle of life with peace and harmony resultant of honesty and creativity. So is the case with technology, it has both pros and cons. There is no doubt in understanding that technology has made our life much smoother and easier. But the fact that it has deprived us of our privacy which is often compromised to be ignored for the sake of convenience.

The good part of the internet is that it has brought amazingly the world at one global platform. With this platform, each and everything can be made available to us at the click of a mouse. But the contrast is really threatening, recent reports on the Chinese government creating an open-air prison for the people who are not socially fit by taking their personal data and tracking them secretively. This includes depriving them of visas and many other restrictions that can hamper a person's privacy. All this is possible by sharing your big data publically and in return getting a social credit score.

A recent activity of 10 years' challenge has been made viral. But delving deep into this it is revealed that it was a mental mapping exercise for the artificial intelligence software to identify how a particular person has evolved in the past 10 years. There are many other activities which get ignored by the majority because it is presented in such a way that we get trapped and thus facilitating them to breach our privacy.

The moot question is an efficient and reliable cybersecurity to contain this worldwide malaise. The question does arise here that making our personal data available socially will be a dividend or a disaster? The most nuanced answer comes out to be, if often get misguided because we trust but do not verify things in our life. But, it depends on our government and the master of roster to regulate these social platforms so that nothing can be used against its own netizens. And, we should be aware of what could be the consequence of the internet of things and use it wisely.

One Nation One Election

2020-04-19T13:19:00.000+05:30

Elections are the most important part of any democratic country. Different countries have different methods to elect their representatives to form the government. Unlike the US where Presidential elections are conducted, India has national elections for the formation of a new Parliament (to elect new members of Parliament) to form a new govt at the center headed by the PM with his council of ministers. Similarly, election for formation of new State Legislative Assembly( by electing new members of legislative assembly)to form new govt headed by CM with his council of ministers. But, curiously enough, the above two sets of elections are seldom conducted simultaneously with the result our country happens to witness mini elections round the year causing immense financial strain on exchequer besides causing unwanted and avoidable shifting of manpower from productive deployment to manage these mini elections. So, with the changing demography the countries have their own modus operandi to conduct and choose their leader.

It is a well-known fact that electioneering is a time-consuming exercise besides having huge financial implications. The frequency of the election and the quantum of resources involved in conducting them which raises a question mark on the wisdom of policymaker and ask for the review to conduct election for all assemblies along with parliamentary election thereby giving rise to the concept of, “one nation one election” may be the need of the hour for such a diverse country.

Political parties rather than focusing on their manifesto tend to swerve by because of the upcoming election and stalemate development and all other important tasks. So, rather than getting indulged in the mammoth population frequently in elections, a process of synchronization should be taken into consideration so that national and state assembly elections can take place at the same point in time.

Looking at the demography and the diversity of India, the idea of one nation one election definitely needs a marshall plan to reconstruct and synchronize its election process. Further, the election commission India which conducts these mammoth exercises must have wider experience should tender some positive changes so that policymakers may be able to devise the best frame of legislation by bringing out required amendments. But, before making such a significant decision in this vibrant democracy the government needs to build a national consensus and consider the pros and cons of the proposed amendment in the best interest of the nation. While knowing that the election can be influenced by the sentiments of the denizens and elections taking place simultaneously will not be fruitful for a particular state as different states have their different problems. This can lead to a mismatch of the manifesto by political parties for a particular state.

Yes, it is a true fact that elections imbibe lots of time resources of the country but the imperative question is that can we invest so much of resources for the sake of satisfaction of the voters? The most important concern of any democracy is to elect the leader of its citizens' choice. A lot needs to be done in regulating the elections so that the whole point of elections turns out to be meaningful and satisfactory.

BHARAT VS INDIA A DIVIDED NATION

2020-04-19T13:05:00.000+05:30

The title of the essay,” Bharat vs India a divided nation” has become quite evident as the problems we are facing are pushing us into a dark tunnel of a divided nation with a small lamp at the end of this throwing eternal light of hope, mutual trust and sense of confidence. The display of unity and solidarity during the great struggle of freedom from the yoke of British imperialism that we had before independence all appears to be fading away in this modern dynamics of globalization and the presence of occidentalism. But delving deep into this burning topic, Bharat vs India, is all about the different reasons which sound alarm to us as one nation. It may be Hindu vs Muslim, Urban vs Rural, or Hindi vs English as a national language.

In India there are people with two sets of ideologies, one which supports the concept of modern India and others which wants rural India to be developed. One supports the spending of 200 crores on a Bollywood movie, robust it's space agency while the other half wanting to take care of the basic needs of farmers so that they can grow and be a part of the economy, alleviating their suicide rate and providing fresh drinking water. Another major reason that makes us look divided is the riots between Hindu and Muslim, in the past 70 years, our government has always put this issue on the back burner and has done practically nothing to resolve this problem.

The issue of whether Hindi should be made a national language or not has made this cleavage even more wider. In my opinion we need to understand that India is a diverse nation, its taste of water changes after every 3 km and its language in 7 km. By making a particular language its national language, it will give advantage to some Sharma who is born with this as a mother tongue while causing disadvantage to one say Subramanian as it is completely different from its mother tongue.

Jawaharlal Nehru once said: ”Who lives if India dies, and who dies if India lives?”. We need to understand Bharat and India is distinct but interconnected, there cannot be an ideal India or Bharat. The beauty of our nation is the diversity that we inherited. We need to accept the flaws, celebrate our similarities and respect our differences. We need to build India with its Bharat as a major contributor. India is our dream and Bharat is our ideology.

Business and Ethics don’t go hand in hand these days

2020-04-12T11:22:00.000+05:30

In the 21st century, notoriously known for cut-throat competition, the theory of business ethics appears to be fast losing ground to profitability concept thereby narrowing the scope for preaching and practicing the philosophy of ethical standards in business. We have been taught and reminded of this jargon since our childhood as if being indispensable lessons for successful Business people. But going by Hume’s theory which suggests, “The strength of belief be a product of repetition.”, and there are not enough real-life examples that’s why we tend to deviate from the idea of morals and ethics.

In 2016, the presidential election of the United States was manipulated by a company called California Analytics which bought the data about demography from Facebook and influenced the people's opinion in a big way into supporting the particular candidate. If the top 500 fortune companies of the world like Facebook hardly stand the scrutiny of, let alone other hapless sections belong to the proletariat class of the country.

Let’s take another example of the 2008 global crisis in which companies like Lehman Brothers, Goldman Sachs, AIG Group played havoc with the sentiments of the economic interest of people across the globe to be flourished in their business pursuit. Their actions led to the suffering of the whole world, and the only reason for the great global economic depression of 2008 was nothing but found compromising on the terms of morals and ethics. To date the economies of PIGS countries are suffering just because the moral compass of these companies was focussed on profitability.

Albeit, these may be the situation of most of the companies in the world but there are companies which are quintessential examples of moral and ethics. In this list Tata Group is definitely on the top of the pyramid whose whole principle and code of business is based on ethics and values and development of people in particular and the nation as a whole. Eminent Personality and Chairman of Tata Group Ratan Tata is an epitome of ethical and moral values and a role model to be emulated by one and all.

He has always been resolute in his resolve to remain committed to ethical standards in business and has never compromised on moral and ethical values. In an interview Ratan Tata was asked why are you not the richest person of India, his answer was I’m an industrialist and not a businessman, my whole principle revolves around the concept of national development and progress of its people and just not increasing personal wealth.

Of course, moral and ethics are the most important pillars of any business establishment, however hard, it may be to practice in real life equally important for an individual human being, but in today’s world where profitability is the key factor, the statement some time appears not to align with the ground realities for reasons. We always focus on short term goals. We should always keep in mind profit helps us to perform, but ethics helps us to establish the business by winning the hearts of people. Also, profit and ethics don’t overlap nor they are mutually exclusive in the long run.

Financial Crises In Europe

2020-04-08T13:46:00.000+05:30

What is the financial crisis? Why does it happen? Developing countries are at a loss to understand why developed countries are facing financial crises. These are the questions that have become common in the last two decades.

In a broader sense, financial crises is the inability of a country to generate income and leading it to halt the wheels of the economy. The most important question arises that there are several regulatory authorities around the world that have chalked out modus operandi to drive the economy in a smooth and efficient way. Still countries fail to stand strong and end up in financial crisis. There are two major reasons for this. The first one, is the incompetence of the ruling government and turning blind eye to major problems like tax evasion and corruption. In the long term these string of setbacks leads to financial crises. And the second reason, a war which reduces the consumption capacity of the country and hence leading to crises.

The most common causes of financial crises are among countries of Europe especially “The Pigs Nation”, which includes Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, and Spain. The major reason for the crises was ambitious plans of their manufacturing without gauging their capacity to which they can push themselves. The government encouraged high-risk lending and borrowing of loans from the bank. The government took a surplus of loans from the IMF to inject liquidity in the economy to robust their manufacturing sector. After the 2008 global crises these countries were unable to compete with other European Union countries and lead to another financial crisis of its decade.

The same was the case with Greece which was in the news after the IMF declared it bankrupt as it was not able to repay the installment of its loan in 2015. It did not take any leaf out from the global crises of 2008 and continued to collect the toxic cauldron of tax evasion and corruption and challenging the rules and regulations of Bank of international settlement(BIS).

Sine qua non to deal with the financial crises is to strictly follow the guidelines like BASEL I, II, III of the Bank of international settlements, and it should be the duty of the ruling government to take all sorts of essential majors so that the economy runs smoothly and efficiently.