Wiley: Fiscal Studies: Table of Contents

Editorial announcement

Wed, 29 Apr 2026 09:52:57 -0700

Fiscal Studies, Volume 47, Issue 1, Page 107-107, March 2026.

A symposium on technological change and the labour market: preface

Monica Costa Dias, Maarten Goos, Matthias Parey — Wed, 29 Apr 2026 09:52:57 -0700

Fiscal Studies, Volume 47, Issue 1, Page 5-6, March 2026.

Automation and collective agreements

Sabrina Genz, Emilie Rademakers — Wed, 29 Apr 2026 09:52:57 -0700

Abstract

In this paper, we empirically examine how collective bargaining agreements relate to firms' automation decisions and employment dynamics. Using novel administrative data on Dutch firms and workers, we link detailed information on collective bargaining coverage to automation expenditures at the firm level. Our analysis yields two main findings. First, firms covered by firm-level collective bargaining invest more in automation than uncovered firms, suggesting that collective agreements create cost-incentives for automation. Second, firms that were initially covered by firm-level collective agreements tend to experience smaller employment growth, which can contribute to the aggregate decline in collective agreement coverage.

Incentives for dwelling renovations: evidence from a large fiscal programme

Antonio Accetturo, Elisabetta Olivieri, Fabrizio Renzi — Wed, 29 Apr 2026 09:52:57 -0700

Abstract

We use counterfactual analysis to evaluate the economic impact of two tax credits for dwelling renovations (‘Bonus Facciate’ / facades bonus and ‘Superbonus 110%’), which were introduced in Italy in the second half of 2020 and led to expenditures amounting to about 3 per cent of GDP per year. Using the synthetic control method, we estimate that the deadweight loss – that is, the share of public expenditure on the programme that financed projects that would have been undertaken even without these incentives – is more than 25 per cent. The implied fiscal multiplier is slightly below 1, a figure lower than the ones associated with public investments in standard macroeconomic models or estimated for green investments. Input–output analysis shows that the incentives are responsible for the entire growth in value added in the construction sector between 2019 and 2023, while their effects on other sectors are more limited.

Evaluating the impact of the UK job retention scheme on mental health and well‐being using matched difference‐in‐differences

Christopher Deeming, Lateef Akanni — Wed, 29 Apr 2026 09:52:57 -0700

Abstract

In March 2020, the UK government implemented the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme, otherwise known as furlough, to minimise the impact of job losses. The UK furlough protected jobs during the COVID-19 crisis, covering up to 80 per cent of a worker's monthly wage for hours not worked. We evaluate the causal effects of furlough on mental health, life satisfaction and loneliness, considering different labour market transitions in the pandemic. We employ a difference-in-differences estimator with propensity score matching, using data from the main stage and the COVID-19 waves of Understanding Society, the UK Household Longitudinal Study. We show that furlough protected workers’ mental health and well-being, compared with non-furloughed workers and unemployment. We also find no detrimental effect on well-being to being furloughed compared with continuous employment. The well-being gains from furlough are particularly evident for those with pre-existing health conditions. Overall, policies that mitigated negative labour market transitions during the pandemic had positive effects on the well-being of the working population.

Latent changes in the labour share

Maarten Goos, Ellen van't Klooster — Wed, 29 Apr 2026 09:52:57 -0700

Abstract

The canonical model of automation introduced by Acemoglu and Restrepo in 2019 (Journal of Economic Perspectives, 33 (2), 3–30) unambiguously predicts a decline in the labour share within sectors. Decomposing changes in the US labour share into within-sector and between-sector components, they show that within-sector changes indeed account for the bulk of the recent decline in the US labour share, while overall between-sector changes are quantitatively unimportant. However, by extending their single-sector framework to a multi-sector model and rooting it in an empirically tractable decomposition, in this paper we show that the small overall between-sector component conceals substantial, though offsetting, equilibrium changes in consumer demand resulting from sector-specific changes in factor quantities and total factor productivity growth. Although these equilibrium forces have not affected overall between-sector changes in the US labour share so far, their importance indicates that ever-declining labour shares due to technological progress, such as artificial intelligence, are not inevitable in the future.

AI‐powered skill classification: mapping technology intensity in the German labour market

Sabrina Genz, Terry Gregory, Florian Lehmer — Wed, 29 Apr 2026 09:52:57 -0700

Abstract

The rapid evolution of technology is reshaping labour markets by altering skill demands and job profiles. This paper introduces a novel skill-based measure of occupational technology intensity – the occupational technology skill share (OTSS) – that distinguishes between manual, digital and frontier technologies, including artificial intelligence (AI). Using natural language processing, generative AI and supervised machine learning, we develop an AI-powered skill classification that enriches occupation-linked skill labels with standardised GenAI-generated descriptions and structured indicators of technological content, enabling transparent classification by technology intensity. We compute OTSS for all occupations in the German labour market. For the average worker in 2023, manual technologies account for the largest share of skill content (42 per cent), followed by digital (38 per cent) and frontier technologies (20 per cent). Frontier technologies remain concentrated in specialised occupations, while digital technologies are widespread. Linking these measures to administrative data from 2012 to 2023 shows a broad shift from manual and digital toward frontier skills across occupations, and reveals a non-linear, U-shaped relationship between changes in frontier skill intensity and employment growth.

Issue Information

Wed, 29 Apr 2026 09:52:57 -0700

Fiscal Studies, Volume 47, Issue 1, Page 1-3, March 2026.

Fiscal drag with microsimulation: evidence from Spanish tax records

Sofía Balladares, Esteban García‐Miralles — Thu, 09 Apr 2026 07:53:57 -0700

Abstract

Fiscal drag arises when nominal tax parameters remain unchanged despite nominal income growth, thereby increasing effective tax rates and revenue. We use Spanish administrative tax records and a detailed microsimulation model to examine fiscal drag in personal income taxation through two complementary approaches. First, we estimate tax-to-base elasticities to assess the progressivity of the tax system and potential fiscal drag under homogeneous income growth. We uncover significant heterogeneity in elasticities across income sources, across the individual income distribution and in the underlying mechanisms. Second, we conduct counterfactual simulations to quantify the actual impact of fiscal drag from 2019 to 2023, finding that it accounts for about a third of revenue growth. Our findings offer insights for public finance modelling, revenue forecasting and tax policy design.

Consumption responses and redistributive implications of luxury durable tax rebates

Tanisa Tawichsri — Wed, 28 Jan 2026 20:15:59 -0800

Abstract

This paper evaluates the impact of tax rebates on luxury durables, using Thailand's 2011 car tax rebate as a case study. Utilising a stochastic dynamic model with heterogeneous agents, where cars serve as both luxury goods and illiquid assets, the study finds that the policy effectively boosted consumption by targeting households with a high propensity to spend. However, it was regressive, primarily benefiting high-income households and leading to prolonged negative effects on household spending and saving. Additionally, the policy caused second-hand car prices to drop. This enabled lower-income households to purchase used cars at lower costs, but further prolonged and deepened cuts in non-durable spending and savings. Using the estimated parameters and the shocks to the interest rate in the policy experiment, the simulated short-run elasticity of intertemporal substitution for Thailand is low – typically between 0 and 0.1. Wealthier and older households increase spending in response to the rate increase, whereas poorer and younger households tend to boost saving instead.