Five Minutes For Fighting

Hockey Night in Punta Cana

2013-05-16T18:04:00.000-04:00

The Leafs made the playoffs for the first time in nine years and I almost missed it.

With how the series came crashing down catastrophically at the end, maybe that would have been for the best. But even after enduring insanely improbable heartbreak, the Leafs at least had a chance. And after nearly a decade lost in the bleak wilderness of apathy, I wouldn't trade this season, ending and all, for another lottery finish.

I almost missed the most relevant Leafs hockey in nine years because I was invited to a destination wedding in Punta Cana that inconveniently coincided with games 3-6.

Tip for anyone thinking about getting married: Book it before or after the playoffs, even if you're an Oilers fan and the chances of your wedding interfering with the playoffs is nil (Hey! I can make fun of other teams that don't make the playoffs now and it feels great). Otherwise, make accommodations for your insane hockey friends. For example, I went to a Stag and Doe on the night of Game 2 and one of the groomsmen brought his satellite dish from home and hooked it up so no one had to miss the game (or, more likely, the Stag and Doe). If you're having your wedding this might interfere with things like speeches, but just crank up the volume during intermission and it'll be like Don Cherry is giving you a personal wedding toast. "Keep your stick on the ice, even in the bedroom."

Bringing a satellite dish to Punta Cana probably wasn't going to happen, not that I was worried when I was first invited. I've had my plane tickets booked since last Autumn, well before the NHL lockout even ended, so I initially didn't think my trip south would be anything other than blissful. I wasn't overly optimistic about Toronto's chances heading into the season either, so even when the lockout ended I didn't think a trip in early May would be an issue. There are 10-year-old children who didn't even know the Leafs were allowed to play hockey in May. But as the season crept along, and the Leafs continued to pile on wins, I began to slowly realize that this trip was going to prove challenging.

For normal people, taking a trip to an all-inclusive resort with beautiful sunny weather would wash away any thoughts about a hockey game. Unfortunately, as a Leafs fan, I'm far from normal, and I was in a slight panic. Where was I going to watch the game? Was there an ESPN5 that would at least show some highlights, albeit after three hours of football and basketball coverage? How could I argue with bartenders about the merits of Jake Gardiner over Mike Kostka if I couldn't speak a lick of Spanish (other than "dos cervezas por favor").

After a win in Game 2, it became even more imperative that I watch this series. It was actually going to be a series, not a one-sided beating like many predicted. Luckily, there was a good contingent of Leafs fans going to the wedding, so I wouldn't be alone on my quest to find hockey.

And a quest it was. Here is how my (possibly hazy) memory recalls the week.

Game 3

The second night of the trip and there is a good contingent ready to bolt out of dinner early to track down the Leafs by any means necessary.

There is a sports bar at the resort, so the matter should be simple. Not really the any-means-necessary solution I expected. I've already seen plenty of people wearing Toronto Blue Jays hats, so I can only assume this resort gets a lot of Canadians. And we Canadians, although polite and mild-mannered by nature, are demanding and pushy when it comes to hockey. Give us hockey or give us death, as our founding fathers once said. Accordingly, this resort must have some extensive satellite package that has all sorts of different flavours of CBC, maybe even some off-brand ESPN that carries hockey illegally, for no other reason than some drunken group of Canadians threatened to commandeer the resort if they didn't get to watch a mid-season Leafs-Habs game on a random Thursday night.

Our group was decked out in Leafs gear—there was even a jersey...in 30+ degree weather—and wolfed down what may have been the best steak I've ever eaten and dashed off to the "sports bar". I'm using quotations to imply that this sports bar was not really a sports bar. Sure, there were some pool tables and a huge TV, but that TV was one of three (the others decidedly smaller) in the entire bar and was showing basketball. Another was showing a Latin Lover knockoff. And right as we walked in, the two guys playing pool broke the news: "No Leafs game."

The Spanish soap opera I could deal with. The basketball I could ignore. But the "No Leafs game" was unacceptable. The lone bartender was sympathetic, although completely befuddled by our rapid-fire, deranged English, and handed over the remote. Alas, the extensive satellite was only the normal satellite we got in the rooms, meaning no sports—unless you want to count basketball or soccer.

We weren't discouraged, however. After a few drinks and a conversation with a New York Rangers fan who dropped at least three f-bombs per sentence, we left with a plan. Good news: Someone in our group brought an iPad and the lobby allegedly had free WiFi. Great, to the lobby! Bad news: It was an iPad mini and the numbers in the group were swelling. Good thing I'm wearing glasses.

Well, the free WiFi that was advertised was actually free in the sense that you paid money and then the internet worked freely. Whatever. We are in too deep at this point. So we buy some internet, crank up the iPad mini and attempt to stream the game at cbc.ca. Oh, wondrous CBC, how grateful we are that you are freely distributing your games in crystal-clear HD and...Flash doesn't work on the iPad. Curse you, Steve Jobs. And Flash is required to watch the game on any other site we can think of too, even the ones that will certainly riddle this iPad with computer herpes.

Behold! All of a sudden a Leafs fan in the jersey appears, drawn to the swarm of his fellow brethren. He has surely come to ease our sorrow. He tells us he has a computer. Computers can play Flash. And we have internet paid for. How fortuitous. He leaves with the promise to return. How can we not trust him, he's wearing a Leafs jersey.

The minutes pass slowly. Slow enough that my Spanish has improved to "diez cervezas por favor". Drinks are now ordered in bulk.

Eventually, we realize we have been hoodwinked by one of our own. He's not coming back. Maybe he was a Sens fan in disguise and planned to rip off his Leafs jersey Hulk Hogan-style to reveal an Alfredsson jersey.

At this time we're also receiving text updates from someone's brother at home. It's 4-1 Bruins. Reimer is looking shaky. I don't believe it, Reimer is the heir to the throne. But an iPad check of the score doesn't lie. I still don't believe Reimer was shaky.

We should probably give up and salvage the night.

Wait! There is a couple sitting with their computer on a lounge couch. I know we've given up, but I notice (read: creep) that they're checking scores on TSN. After introducing myself ("Hey! Are you trying to watch the game?") I let them know that CBC is streaming the game. They're both from the east coast of Canada. She's a Habs fan, he's a Leafs fan and they're making a go of it. I refrain from telling them it will never work because you can't date within your division and watch painfully as CBC fails to load on our jungle internet.

Night over. Much like the Leafs, we've been defeated.

To the bar.

Game 4

Undeterred by our futile attempt to watch Game 3, we're back at it a few nights later. We should come back stronger. We know what works (the internet!) and what doesn't (everything else, apparently). But we're resourceful, found the computer lounge and paid for some internet time, and grew up knowing you can find anything you want on the internet—for free.

So we do.

It isn't CBC, but we find a site streaming every sport imaginable going on at that moment. Underground Thai face kicking will have to wait, because after a few botched links we find a stream for Bruins-Leafs, Game 4.

It works. Thank you, James Reimer's Mennonite god. We are watching the Leafs. A cheer goes up. It must be pretty loud because we can't hear the game. We can't hear the game after the cheer dies down, either. No sound on this site, which at least means no Glenn Healy, so we'll just have to add our own commentary for added entertainment. A tray or two of drinks later and we're set for at least a period.

But there are other problems, one of which isn't as incurable as the soundless feed, but is just as persistent. There are ads galore. Not ones on the site around the video. But ones that pop up incessantly over top of the actual video. There is definitely a Habs fan controlling them somewhere who waits for breakaways and big saves to throw a bright, flashing ad for Russian mail-order brides over top a Phil Kessel wrister.

But we're prepared; we have a secret weapon. My brother sits in the chair front and centre. Years of playing World of Warcraft are paying off huge. He's sniping the "x" on these ads with the precision of a Mariano Rivera cutter. Before we can even scream his name he's taken care of the ads.

The stream stalls every now and then, forcing us to find alternative links, but by the third period we've found a crisp video that plays smoothly throughout. Unfortunately, we didn't plan our internet buying wisely and are unprepared when our internet locks us out with a few minutes left in the second. We miss goals by David Krejci and Clarke MacArthur. Dumb-asses.

Third period underway. The jokes are flying, the drinks and flowing, and the game is incredible. The Leafs of the regular season have somehow been replaced by a fast-skating, hard-hitting team that is actually giving the Bruins fits. The Leafs end the period outshooting Boston 14-7. WHAT WORLD AM I LIVING IN!?

Overtime is excruciating. The Leafs seem to be badly outplaying the Bruins and I'm getting scared. Years of watching Leafs playoff hockey, particularly against the Sens, has shown me that the team getting badly outplayed is eventually going to get a chance and will bury it. Eventually, no matter how many chances you get, if you can't put a team away, they put you away. David Krejci obliges and puts a nail in our hearts after a brutal Dion Phaneuf pinch.

Leafs are down 3-1, we got a pretty good gut punch, and the night is basically squandered. I wouldn't say it's over, but sitting around moaning about the loss for the next hour isn't exactly fun. But it's soothing. I'll need the practice.

Game 5

It's now well known we have figured out how to watch the Leafs 3000 km from home. We are taking over the entire internet lounge. There isn't a chair to spare. Too bad for the one couple that comes in wanting to check Facebook or Skype with their dog at home or something.

For the uninitiated we go through the long list of things wrong with watching the game. The screen is small. We can't go full screen because the internet here is precarious and going full screen knocked out our feed a couple of times. There is no sound. Don't even think about going to another site during the intermission, because the internet will die. There are ads that will interfere with your view. The internet lags and it will freeze. The freezing will definitely make you miss something crucial, so your imagination better be in top shape. It's just like trying to watch porn in the 56k modem era.

But everyone accepts the flaws of jungle internet because of LEAFS.

The internet was particularly laggy on this fateful night. Really, you haven't lived until you've sat in a cramped room with 10 people huddled around a tiny computer monitor watching a choppy stream that freezes every few minutes. Every time the video freezes we analyze what might happen based on who had the puck, what it looked like they were doing, and who was around them. "Well, you see here Chara is winding up for a slap shot, but clearly van Riemsdyk is going to block it and spring Kessel on a breakaway." Essentially every scenario ends with the Leafs winning the Stanley Cup.

We're also much smarter now. Drinks are ordered en masse during the intermissions, as is extra internet time. This baby can go to triple overtime and we'll still be fine.

Once again the Leafs are badly outplaying the Bruins, outshooting them 19-8 to start the game, and I'm finding myself loving everybody, even players I've slagged all year like Colton Orr and Tyler Bozak.

The Bruins reverse the momentum in the second, outshooting Toronto 17-10, but Bozak rewards my new appreciation with a beauty short-handed marker. I definitely have never called him "hot garbage", no sir, I definitely haven't done that. When Clarke MacArthur makes it 2-0 to open the third we're going crazy.

Then our crazy leads us to nearly develop severe mental health problems because the Leafs are protecting a lead in the third period. It's hard living. It's time to buckle in and let my stress consume me. Watching the Bruins pour it on in the third period nearly knocks me out.

The lag is getting so bad at this point we start missing more chunks of hockey than we watch. As the video painfully freezes on a Chara wind-up our next action is a triumphant Bruins team mobbing the captain. Either Chara just choke slammed Phil Kessel, or we missed a goal. Of course, the video works perfectly during the replay and we realize Kessel is alive, but the lead is cut in half.

All our faith is in Reimer right now. I promise to check out his Mennonite church if everything goes well. With 10 seconds left the puck goes back to Chara at the point and the VIDEO IS FROZEN. Mercifully, the next clip we see is Reimer raising his hand and praising God. Either God just struck down Zdeno Chara for being an abomination or the Leafs won.

The Leafs won. They live to fight another day. Pure elation. Pure relief.

The fatty foods, the alcohol, and the sun did a number on me over the week, but battling jungle internet to watch the Leafs stave off elimination may have taken the biggest toll on my life.

Worst of all, our flight leaves right before the start of Game 6 and the in-flight entertainment consists of prerecorded radio shows and a DVD movie. A few airline promo clips on the flight down announced the planes were all being upgraded and newer ones will come equipped with satellite TV in every seat. We can only pray to the Mennonites now.

Game 6

The Mennonites don't come through. Instead of hockey there is The Lucky One, a movie based on another cookie-cutter Nicklas Sparks book. I think it's about Tyler Bozak's time playing with Phil Kessel.

I just think happy thoughts.

As we begin our descent we are told it is a chilly 3 degrees in Toronto, but the Leafs hold a 2-0 lead late in the third. That's enough to warm our hearts. Cheers all around! And mistrustful glances for everyone who didn't cheer. After the plane lands our captain announces it's a 2-1 final for Toronto.

The Bruins try to leave Pearson later that night. Is it any coincidence that their plane had mechanical issues on the same night I was there? If you're the police, then yes. It definitely was a coincidence, just don't ask why there's an airplane engine outside my apartment.

But all that matters now is that there will be a game 7. I'll be back in Canada and capable of watching it on stunning HD. These are the things dreams are made of...

...And we all know how that worked out. Nightmares. Game 7s are the things nightmares are made of.

It's back to reality for me, and unfortunately, for the Maple Leafs as well.

Eternal Sunshine of the Sportsless Mind

2013-05-13T22:39:00.000-04:00

"how happy is the sportless vestal's lot
the world forgetting, by the world forgot
eternal sunshine of the sportless mind
each prayer accepted, and each wish resigned"

- adapted from "Eloisa to Abelard," by Alexander Pope

Why Do People Hate Glenn Healy?

2013-05-04T17:00:00.000-04:00

People hate Pierre McGuire. His most redeeming quality is looking like The Master of Disguise dressed as a turtle. Yes, that is a terrible movie and an old enough reference that probably three people thought it was funny. Yes, that is his most redeeming quality.

When I attempted to answer the time-tested question, "Why do people hate Pierre McGuire?" the response was overwhelming. People just don't like him, and they Google their hatred for him a lot.

Mercifully, Pierre McGuire was hired by NBC in 2011, so his presence (at least in Canada, sorry America, you're stuck with him) is minimal. However, his void as the most annoying on-air Canadian personality was filled almost immediately—like a decapitated hydra—by Glenn Healy.

People end up here quite frequently by Googling their hatred for Healy, as well. So, why do people hate Glen Healy? Let me count the ways.

- The most frequent complaint about Healy is that he hates your favourite team. That's generally lobbed at any analyst who doesn't gush Joe Bowen-esque homerism at your favourite team, but there is some merit for the criticism in this case. That's because Healy, likely because he is still bitter about his own miserable career, hasn't said anything positive about a player in what seems like his entire broadcasting career.

- Back when he was doing commentary for TSN, Healy awarded his "Loch Ness Monster of the Game", given to the player you've heard about but haven't seen in the game. Aside from being a tongue-in-cheek rip-off of McGuire's insufferable "Monster of the Game", the idea must have been born as a counter to Healy's own career—because when a flashing red light and a goal song go off pretty much every time the puck enters your zone, it isn't hard to notice you.

- To be fair, as a bad backup goalie, Healy does have a right to criticize. He's watched a lot of hockey from a pretty nice seat, and when he did get into the games he knew pretty much every single way a player could score a goal. "Luongo shouldn't have given up that goal, Simmer, and I should know, because I let up a lot of 'em."

- Like McGuire, Healy is usually in between the benches, and when not getting hit by pucks (how annoying) he's busy pressing his mute button when animosity, and a certain flattery, is exchanged between benches. We can deal with some cursing. Unfortunately, what we can't deal with is Healy refraining from holding down the mute button when he decides to open his mouth.

- Anytime he can work in a reference to winning a Stanley Cup with the Rangers in 1994, he does it. It doesn't matter that his contributions were minimal or whether the context of the game even calls for it. It doesn't even matter if he's at the mall ordering fries, because your taxes pay for the CBC, so he's contractually obliged to harangue you here, dammit.

- On the Satellite Hotstove, which has degraded considerably since TSN poached Pierre LeBrun, Healy and PJ Stock disintegrate any semblance of intelligent conversation while Elliotte Friedman counts the seconds before his contract expires and his insight can be appreciated once again.

- Healy's primary intellectual foil on the Hotstove is Stock, a man who somehow got it in his head that doing a commercial for adult diapers was a good career move.

- Instead of using facts and knowledge to make himself look smart, he will cut up his panel-mates at any chance he gets. Disagree with something PJ says, Heals? Who cares, just roll your eyes and cut him off. Then the audience will really know who won that argument. Did someone just question your baseless argument? Who cares, point out he's wearing a stupid tie. Elliotte Friedman tried to bring up Corsi? Buy him a pair of glasses and then break that nerd's new pair of glasses.

- You know it's bad when you pine for the halcyon days of Al Strachan and Mike Milbury.

- Even worse, when Friedman does bring up something meaningful, Healy practically clubs him over the head, refusing to shift the discussion from the depths of his ignorance. Healy also routinely cuts off his panel-mates and brazenly steals other's air time, most egregiously a few weekends ago when Ron MacLean directly asked Friedman a question and Healy jumped right in and answered the question. Sure, that happens all the time on talking head, faux-argument panels, but Friedman—the only real journalist who knows how to search out information and not just recite flawed, uninformed opinions—is the one we trust for insight. If we want to know why the bagpipes are Scotland's greatest export, we'll ask you, Heals.

- When he played for the Leafs it meant either Felix Potvin or Curtis Joseph sat on the bench. That's a crime.

- He was a Maple Leaf, therefore fans of the 29 other teams are obliged to hate him.

- He was a Maple Leaf who went on to become vastly more successful once he left the Leafs (I sadly assume his contract with CBC runs until the end of 2050), meaning Leafs fans are obliged to hate him.

Leafs Lockout Stats Prorated Over a Full Season

2013-04-29T19:26:00.000-04:00

Looking at the Leafs' stats after the season is a little strange as the lockout caused far lower totals than I'm accustomed to seeing. I'm used to thinking that 30 goals is a pretty solid season for a sniper and it's hard to quickly determine what that 30-goal mark would be during a 48-game season. So to get a better understanding of what type of season the individual Leafs players just had I prorated their 48-game totals to their corresponding 82-game numbers.

The one major caveat of this table is that the missing 34 games of the season would not necessarily play out exactly the same as the other 48, so simply prorating players' 48-game stats over 82 games isn't exactly a precise measure of what an 82-game season would look like. For example, Joffrey Lupul, a career 11.55% shooter, was probably not going to continue shooting 26% over a full year.

Regardless, this table is a quick and dirty look at what the Leafs might have produced in the alternate universe where Gary Bettman didn't flush away the first 34 games of the season.

	Lockout-Shortened 2013 Season				Stats Over Full Season
	GP	G	A	Pts	GP	G	A	Pts
Phil Kessel	48	20	32	52	82	34	55	89
Nazem Kadri	48	18	26	44	82	31	44	75
James van Riemsdyk	48	18	14	32	82	31	24	55
Cody Franson	45	4	25	29	77	7	43	50
Dion Phaneuf	48	9	19	28	82	15	32	48
Tyler Bozak	46	12	16	28	79	21	27	48
Nikolai Kulemin	48	7	16	23	82	12	27	39
Clarke MacArthur	40	8	12	20	68	14	21	34
Joffrey Lupul	16	11	7	18	27	19	12	31
Jay McClement	48	8	9	17	82	14	15	29
Mikhail Grabovski	48	9	7	16	82	15	12	27
Carl Gunnarrson	37	1	14	15	63	2	24	26
Matt Frattin	25	7	6	13	43	12	10	22
John-Michael Liles	32	2	9	11	55	3	15	19
Leo Komorov	42	4	5	9	72	7	9	15
Mark Fraser	45	0	8	8	77	0	14	14
Mike Kostka	35	0	8	8	60	0	14	14
Ryan O'Byrne	42	2	4	6	72	3	7	10
Frazer McClaren	36	3	2	5	62	5	3	9
Colton Orr	44	1	3	4	75	2	5	7
Jake Gardiner	12	0	4	4	21	0	7	7
Korbinian Holzer	22	2	1	3	38	3	2	5
Ryan Hamilton	10	0	2	2	17	0	3	3
Joe Colborne	5	0	0	0	9	0	0	0
Mike Komisarek	4	0	0	0	7	0	0	0

Reimer Heading into Joseph/Belfour Territory

2013-04-23T08:00:00.000-04:00

James Reimer is the rightful heir to Curtis Joseph's throne.

The young netminder has been a rock for the Leafs this season, essentially dragging the team into the playoffs. His .926 save percentage is sixth in the league, just a tick below Henrik Lundqvist and Cory Schneider.

Apart from the five games after Reimer returned from knee surgery, in which his save percentage was .893, the Morweena, Manitoba native has posted a .933 save percentage. He has been exactly what the Leafs have been searching for since Father Time chopped down Ed Belfour eight years ago: A true No. 1 goalie.

Reimer's ascension is even more amazing considering goaltending was a major question heading into the season for Toronto, so much so that Roberto Luongo to the Leafs seemed like a foregone conclusion. As a response, Reimer elevated his game and made Leafs management realize the solution to the long-term problem was in-house all along.

He has silenced all reasonable doubt about his ability to handle the No. 1 duties, facing the pressure from the demanding Toronto fan base and media without showing a crack. Being unable to withstand the immense pressure that comes with playing in Toronto has been a longstanding criticism of failed Leafs teams of the past.

Last year, when the Leafs got their first whiff of the playoffs, the team fell apart down the stretch, winning a brutal seven of their final 29 games. This year, Reimer made sure there was no repeat, going 5-2-1 in April with a 2.12 GAA and a sizzling .939 save percentage. Those numbers are even more impressive considering the Leafs have been outshot 278-183 in his April starts— that's allowing the opposition 60% of all the shots. The last-place Florida Panthers only allow about 52%.

Reimer has been the Leafs' MVP this season, and it really isn't even close. On average, the Leafs have been outshot 33-27, the worst shot differential of any playoff team since the 2001-02 Montreal Canadiens (32-26), the year Jose Theodore won the Hart Trophy as the league MVP. In total, the Leafs have been outshot in 34 of their 45 games, meaning Reimer has been a busy goalie. In fact, only four goalies have registered more 35+ save performances, and those four have all played more games than Reimer.

Facing a barrage of rubber makes Reimer a worthy successor to the Joseph-Belfour lineage. Both Joseph and Belfour were often under constant bombardment in Toronto, the result of playing behind some defensively porous teams. The ability to perform under such duress made Joseph and Belfour mythical figures in Toronto, a city that just seems to love a solid netminder even more than they love the blue-collared, hard-working player (and Toronto loves that type of player). It looks like Reimer may be next to receive such treatment.

But before the statues go up and the folk songs are written, he'll have to do it in the playoffs.

Both Joseph and Belfour were already proven playoff performers by the time they took over the netminding job in Toronto. Leafs fans knew first-hand what Joseph could do, watching him push a team-of-destiny Maple Leafs squad to seven games in the second-round of the 1993 playoffs (Joseph led the playoffs with a .938 save percentage that year). And Belfour already had a Stanley Cup ring on his resume. Once becoming Maple Leafs, both Joseph and Belfour continued their excellent ways and were simply outstanding during the post-season, routinely stealing games and series (oh hey there, Ottawa fans).

While Reimer doesn't have any playoff experience, there is no reason to suggest he will turn into a pumpkin once the post-season begins. This season on Saturday nights—the big, nationally-televised games—Reimer went 6-2-2 with a 1.48 GAA and a .959 save percentage. The pressure didn't faze him then, and considering he posted a .927 save percentage against playoff teams, there is no evidence to suggest it will affect him in a few weeks.

The Leafs certainly won't be the best team heading into the playoffs, but at least they have Reimer. And anytime you head into the playoffs with a stud goalie, anything can happen. There are plenty of examples of underdog teams defying expectations and making a run, all thanks to a hot goalie. Think of Braden Holtby leading the Capitals to an upset win over the defending Stanley Cup champion Bruins last year, or the 2010 Montreal Canadiens riding Jaroslav Halak past Alex Ovechkin and Sidney Crosby.

Thanks to Reimer, the Leafs have more than a chance.

The agonizing, back-breaking goals that characterized so many post-lockout games are gone. Images of Vesa Toskala allowing 197-foot shots or Jonas Gustavsson giving up game-winning dump-in goals are quickly fading. In their place are saves that revive long dormant memories of Joseph and Belfour slamming the door, giving the team a chance to win regardless of how badly they may be outplayed.

Reimer has yet to take the most important step needed to take his rightful place alongside Joseph and Belfour in the pantheon of beloved Leafs goalies, but he'll soon get his chance.

Brace Yourself: Spring is Coming

2013-04-21T10:51:00.001-04:00

Our hellacious wait is mercifully over, Leafs fans. The Toronto Maple Leafs are going back to the playoffs.

It still feels surreal, somewhat like a dream. That's what happens when you go almost a decade watching futility. Losing becomes your reality.

When the Leafs clinched a playoff berth Saturday night in Ottawa—which amazingly wasn't even the last day of the season—I couldn't believe what I was seeing. The Toronto Maple Leafs are going to the playoffs. What a world we live in.

In the season preview I wrote: "Until the Leafs are actually in the playoffs, [you should be] extremely guarded. Even if up 10 points on the last day of the season don't rule out an asteroid hitting Earth."

I'm still waiting for that asteroid to hit.

I'm still waiting for Gary Bettman and Don Fehr to announce a joint press conference to tell us that the NHL and the NHLPA haven't really agreed to a new CBA, there was a last minute snag. Lockout back on, sorry Toronto.

I'm still waiting for the trap door to fall out beneath me. I'm still waiting for the punch line. I'm still waiting for this to be taken away somehow.

This can't be real, right?

Like an abused dog, I'm wary of these good feelings. I'm suspicious of the treat I'm given. What's the catch? There's got to be some sort of catch.

And who can blame me for feeling this way? Pretty much everything that could go wrong for the Leafs did go wrong over the last decade. The Muskoka Five, Andrew Raycroft/Vesa Toskala/Jonas Gustavsson, Tyler Seguin/Dougie Hamilton/Tuukka Rask, the New York Islanders and Wade Dubielewicz, NTCs and brutal free agent signings, JFJ being terrible and Brian Burke surprisingly not being able to do much better. It was hell, on par and perhaps even worse than the 1980s, a decade without a winning season.

It seemingly came out of nowhere. The Leafs went from a perennial contender in the late-90s, early 2000s, to a bottom-dwelling punching bag. It all happened so quickly.

The initial shock of missing the playoffs in 2006 was soon erased by a yearly numbness. The Leafs were bad, always. Even when there were glimmers of hope, like James Reimer reviving the team in 2011, they were stamped out quickly—like Reimer's concussion the next season.

But the forthcoming playoffs are shining a light on some of the not-so-bad moments. Sure, Tyler Seguin and Dougie Hamilton should be pretty good players, but Phil Kessel is about to finish his second consecutive year in the top 10 in league scoring. Nazem Kadri broke out in a big way, silencing the cries that he was a bust and making Brayden Schenn a forgotten name. James van Riemsdyk turned into a first-line winger in Toronto. There's finally a goalie, too. Reimer has proved he's more Cujo than Razor, shaking off an injury-plagued 2011-12 and making it apparent his sophomore season was the outlier year, not his sizzling rookie campaign.

This is just the first step in a quest for relevance, and is admittedly the bare minimum for success. But it's also a big step for the organization. It's a big step for the fans.

Your patience has finally paid off, Leafs fans. Congratulations, Spring is coming.

When Bad Puck Possession Teams Turn Good

2013-04-16T19:13:00.001-04:00

A week after going 24:33 minutes without a shot in a loss to the New York Rangers, the Leafs were back to their low-chance ways against New Jersey last night, managing only 13 shots.

Amazingly, the Leafs won. But what's truly amazing is that this wasn't abnormal for the team. The Leafs have been consistently outshot and outchanced all season, yet they continue to find ways to make their shots count and pick up wins.

The performance has come as a shock to many, but none more than those who ascribe to advanced statistics.

But despite its name, advanced stats in hockey aren't all that advanced.

The most important advanced stat in hockey is puck possession. And although no actual measure of how long teams possess the puck exists (at least publicly), measuring how many shots a team takes/allows is almost as good.

The logic behind the importance of puck possession is simple: Teams that posses the puck more shoot the puck more than their opponents. And if you outshoot your opponents you are more likely to out-chance your opponents; and if you out-chance your opponents you are more likely to outscore your opponents. That's it. Advanced stats in hockey are really that simple.

Sure, in any one game a goalie can stand on his head or some fortuitous bounces can lead to a goal-fest, but over time, like, say, an 82-game regular season, teams that routinely outshoot their opponents will find themselves with better records.

Ask yourself this: Do you feel more confident watching your favourite team when they are carrying the play and outshooting the other team, or are you more confident when your team is consistently hemmed in their own zone and outshot? The answer is clearly the former and you don't have to be a statistician to understand. There's a reason teams are generally described as "lucky to steal two points" when they win after being badly outshot.

The best measure of a team's puck possession is something called Fenwick close, a metric that measures shot attempts at even strength, minus blocked shots, in close situations (when the score is tied or within one goal through the first two periods and tied during the third period). Fenwick close only looks at these close situations because of score effects—which happen when the leading team goes into a defensive shell to protect their lead and end up allowing the trailing team to outshoot them.

Since first being collected in 2007-08, Fenwick close has a 0.61 correlation with the amount of points a team accumulates. That's a pretty strong correlation and shows that teams that own the shot clock generally own the standings. Since 2007-08, almost 75% of the top 16 teams in Fenwick close make the playoffs. This reality is wonderfully illustrated below, courtesy of Eyes on the Prize, the Montreal Canadiens SB Nation blog. An explanation from the author, Chris Boyle, below:

The rings of the graph represent each round of the Stanley Cup playoffs. The further the logo is away from the ring represents the distance from a playoff berth. I have also charter the percentage from .400 to .600. The further away from the .400 represents a stronger possession team. The ultimate on this index would be the 2008 Red Wings with a score of 59.39 located on the top portion of the Stanley Cup in the +.550 section. The 2008 Thrashers scrape the bottom of this index with a 41.23 and 28th position during the same season.

Click for a hi-resolution photo.

As you can see, non-playoff teams generally have a Fenwick close of less than 50%—in other words, they are giving up the majority of shots—and playoff teams generally have a Fenwick close of more than 50%—they are taking the majority of shots.

Having a strong Fenwick close mark is also predictive of how far a team will advance in the playoffs. A team's regular season Fenwick close score has a 0.47 correlation with how far a team goes in the playoffs (to calculate this I assigned teams a score of 1-5 based on which round of the playoffs they made, 5 indicating the team won the Stanley Cup). Although still moderately strong, puck possession isn't correlated as highly with playoff performance as it is regular season performance because a seven-game series is a much smaller sample than 82 games and anything can happen in a shortened series. Put another way, a good team isn't likely to play poorly over 82 games, but even good teams have slumps for a handful of games. And if you slump in the playoffs, or run into a hot goalie, there isn't a next week to make up for it. Plus, the playoffs is composed of mostly good teams and the difference between a four seed and a five seed, for instance, isn't usually very large.

Although good puck possession teams generally do better in the playoffs than bad puck possession teams, they don't always make the playoffs. A total of 16 teams with a Fenwick close score of over 50% have missed out on the playoffs since 2007-08.

Conversely, being a bad puck possession team doesn't necessarily disqualify you from the post-season. A total of 22 teams with a Fenwick close score below 50% have made the playoffs, almost a third of which have made it to the conference finals and beyond. Most famously, the Pittsburgh Penguins won the 2009 Stanley Cup as a sub-50% Fenwick close team, although they ended the season at 49.9% and were almost a 55% team from the day Dan Bylsma took over in February.

Cruelly, the Toronto Maple Leafs have twice iced teams that managed to break the hallowed 50% Fenwick close mark. In both years, 2007-08 and 2009-10, they missed the playoffs, the latter season being so bad that they forfeited the second overall pick, Tyler Seguin, to the Boston Bruins as part of the Phil Kessel trade. Yes, one of the worst seasons in Toronto Maple Leafs history occurred when they were actually a good puck possession team.

Now the Leafs are on the brink of making the playoffs, despite owning one of the league's worst Fenwick close marks (44.66%). The only teams worse are Edmonton and Buffalo, two teams essentially eliminated from post-season play.

So, even though puck possession is highly correlated with winning, it clearly isn't everything in hockey.

If we examine these outlier teams, those who buck the trend and succeed in spite of their crummy puck possession (the 2010 Montreal Canadiens going to the Eastern Conference Final) or fail despite their good puck possession (the 2010 Toronto Maple Leafs bequeathing Tyler Seguin), we may uncover some more information about what it takes to win, and maybe just as important, what it takes to lose.

Actually, it's not hard to uncover the hidden variable: it's goaltending.

Good puck possession teams that missed the playoffs
Year	Team	Fenwick Close	Team SV% (league avg)
2011-12	Winnipeg Jets	51.05%	.905 (.914)
2010-11	New Jersey Devils	52.16%	.906 (.913)
2010-11	Calgary Flames	52.06%	.906 (.913)
2010-11	Columbus Blue Jackets	51.92%	.900 (.913)
2010-11	St. Louis Blues	51.92%	.902 (.913)
2009-10	Calgary Flames	51.64%	.916 (.911)
2009-10	Toronto Maple Leafs	51.55%	.896 (.911)
2009-10	St. Louis Blues	51.40%	.916 (.911)
2008-09	LA Kings	50.92%	.906 (.908)
2008-09	Dallas Stars	50.61%	.895 (.908)
2007-08	Columbus Blue Jackets	52.47%	.910 (.909)
2007-08	Carolina Hurricanes	52.31%	.898 (.909)
2007-08	Toronto Maple Leafs	51.33%	.896 (.909)
2007-08	Buffalo Sabres	50.86%	.903 (.909)
2007-08	Tampa Bay Lightning	50.73%	.890 (.909)
2007-08	Chicago Blackhawks	50.18%	.905 (.909)

Good puck possession teams that miss the playoffs almost always have a below-average goalie. Or, if you're the Toronto Maple Leafs, a miserable goalie sent from the future to torpedo your season (looking at you Vesa Toskala/Jonas Gustavsson). It doesn't matter how badly you outshoot the other team if you have a porous goalie waiting behind you to help the opposition convert their chances. Only three of the 16 above-50% puck possession teams that missed the playoffs had above-average goalies.

Bad puck possession teams that made the playoffs
Year	Team	Fenwick Close	Team SV% (league avg)
2011-12	New York Rangers	49.90%	.924 (.914)
2011-12	Washington Capitals	49.71%	.912 (.914)
2011-12	Phoenix Coyotes	49.17%	.927 (.914)
2011-12	Nashville Predators	46.08%	.921 (.914)
2010-11	New York Rangers	49.74%	.922 (.913)
2010-11	Anaheim Ducks	45.66%	.915 (.913)
2009-10	Buffalo Sabres	49.58%	.924 (.911)
2009-10	Vancouver Canucks	49.30%	.913 (.911)
2009-10	Colorado Avalanche	46.85%	.917 (.911)
2009-10	Montreal Canadiens	46.07%	.919 (.911)
2008-09	Pittsburgh Penguins	49.97%	.909 (.908)
2008-09	St. Louis Blues	49.86%	.907 (.908)
2008-09	Vancouver Canucks	49.28%	.914 (.908)
2008-09	Philadelphia Flyers	49.06%	.914 (.908)
2008-09	Montreal Canadiens	46.91%	.909 (.908)
2007-08	Calgary Flames	49.95%	.906 (.909)
2007-08	Anaheim Ducks	49.69%	.922 (.909)
2007-08	Dallas Stars	49.35%	.908 (.909)
2007-08	Minnesota Wild	48.28%	.916 (.909)
2007-08	Philadelphia Flyers	47.12%	.915 (.909)
2007-08	Montreal Canadiens	47.11%	.919 (.909)
2007-08	Pittsburgh Penguins	46.51%	.918 (.909)

Conversely, bad puck possession teams that make the playoffs almost always have an above-average goalie, which helps explain why a team like Nashville could have such an abysmal Fenwick mark (46.08%) last season yet still succeed. It doesn't really matter if you're consistently shelled when you have a goalie like Pekka Rinne waiting to bail you out. In fact, only three of the 22 sub-50% puck possession teams that made the playoffs had below-average goalies.

The importance of good goaltending shouldn't surprise many, although it becomes particularly important for teams that can't limit the shots against. That's encouraging for the Toronto Maple Leafs, a terrible puck possession team, but one lucky enough to have God's favourite son, James Reimer, posting a .925 save percentage (considerably better than the league average rate of .912).

The Leafs better hope Reimer continues his stonewalling ways because if their puck possession mark remains under 45% they will be the worst puck possession team to ever make the post-season. The next worst team, the 2010-11 Anaheim Ducks (45.66%), were eliminated in the first round by the Nashville Predators.

Even if the Leafs are able to boost their Fenwick over the last few games their invite to Lord Stanley's dance will still be rare. Only six teams have made the playoffs with a Fenwick close score of less than 47%. Three of those teams were ousted in the first round, but the other three had considerably more success. Last year's Predators made the second round; the 2009-10 Montreal Canadiens went on a magical run to the Eastern Conference Final; and the 2007-08 Pittsburgh Penguins made the Stanley Cup Final.

Making the playoffs in Toronto—a city of sports misery for years—was already going to be a minor miracle for the Leafs. Doing it the way they are might qualify the 2013 Toronto Maple Leafs for sainthood.

Nazem Kadri Shows His Killer Edge

2013-04-14T12:57:00.001-04:00

"Come at me, Massholes."

After another thumping of the rival Montreal Canadiens, the Leafs are one step closer to mercifully ending their playoff drought. And although Nazem Kadri didn't have a dominating offensive performance, he made his presence felt.

The CBC feed caught Kadri yapping at the Montreal bench, with pointed words for Montreal's young Brendan Gallagher, specifically. And rather than leaving his words on the bench, Kadri made sure to back up his bravado. Kadri caught both Lars Eller and Gallagher at two separate points and delivered hard checks, the latter of which was called a penalty since Kadri ignored the simple fact that Gallagher didn't actually have the puck. A minor detail.

And here's Kadri's hit on Eller, considerably less dirty.

Although clearly a penalty, the check on Gallagher highlights the edge to Kadri's game. He isn't very big, but he picks his spots, usually lurking like a predator awaiting his unsuspecting prey, and makes it count. The Leafs haven't had a player of Kadri's skill with a chippy side for years; maybe not since—and hold the hyperbole—Doug Gilmour.

And as if that wasn't enough, Kadri doesn't seem to like the Habs—or the Sens for that matter—and seems to play with extra pride and energy during these rivalry games, saving some of his best performances for big Saturday night tilts.

Here's Kadri introducing Alexei Emelin to the boards back in February.

You might think that because of Kadri's size he would shrink when the games turn physical. He seems to enjoy it, however, something that bodes well for the playoffs, when teams will be specifically targeting him. He even took a run at Zdeno Chara a few weeks ago. Sure, it didn't actually do any damage because Chara is a certifiable monster, but it shows that Kadri's either fearless or has a death wish. I'm not going to complain if there's a little bit of Darcy Tucker-style crazy in Kadri.

Here is a sampling of Kadri's other greatest hits, a list that will hopefully continue to grow.

Kiprusoff to the Leafs a Baseless Trade Rumour

2013-04-02T22:06:00.001-04:00

The Leafs have been shelled this season, allowing the fourth most shots per game, yet are still firmly in a playoff position, thanks in large part to their goaltending.

What began as a major question mark heading into the season has turned into the backbone of the team.

James Reimer and Ben Scrivens have led the Leafs to a .916 team save percentage, good for eighth best in the league. In recent years with the likes of Vesa Toskala and Andrew Raycroft, breaking .900 was a minor miracle. Now, the Leafs have received better goaltending than teams like Montreal, Vancouver, Nashville, and Los Angeles, teams with unquestioned No. 1 goaltenders.

But strong goaltending in Toronto hasn't stopped rumours from popping up over the last few days linking high-profile veteran goalies to the Leafs. Roberto Luongo, currently sitting on the bench in Vancouver, is once again being talked about, apparently. But the new rumour de jour—one that makes even less sense—claims the Leafs are talking to Calgary about bringing Miikka Kiprusoff to Toronto.

The rumour makes so little sense that even Don Cherry thought it was nonsensical.

"Hard to believe that Toronto would want to get Kiprusoff. Do you want a guy that says he's not going anywhere? Great attitude. In a way you can't blame him. He's just had a new baby, been there a long time and I guess he doesn't need the added pressure right now. He's got an .868 save percentage and 3.64 average. Last night EDM beat CGY 4-1. Flames outshot Oilers 34-20. Kiprusoff let in the very first shot which is a game killer. Hard to believe they're after him."

What's more likely is that the Kiprusoff/Luongo trade chatter is nothing more than the sports networks trying to drum up some interest for what likely will be a boring, uneventful 10 hours of programming slated for deadline day. When in doubt you might as well pander to the biggest fan base in the league.

That is the only explanation that makes sense, because there is no logical justification for why the Leafs would have any real interest in Kiprusoff, unless John Ferguson Jr. has somehow pulled a Freaky Friday with Dave Nonis.

The Leafs are getting above-average goaltending for minimal cost. The Leafs are spending only $2.413 million in the net. Only the Washington Capitals, who are spending $1.788 million, have invested less in their goalies.

Why, then, would Nonis be willing to take on Kiprusoff, who has a cap hit slightly over $5.83 million for this year and next and has been largely terrible this season. The 36-year-old netminder is on pace for the worst season of his career, and the worst season since Peter Sidorkiewicz registered a .856 save percentage in 64 games for the expansion Ottawa Senators in 1992-93.

The Leafs have enough holes on the roster—namely on defence—that acquiring a veteran goalie and tying up cap space to fill an imaginary problem makes no sense. Especially if, as Damien Cox ponders, the deal would cost the Leafs a second-round pick and a one-year extension worth $6 million.

Aside from being perpetuated to drive ratings on deadline day, the Kiprusoff rumour is given breath from newspaper and TV analysts because of the fetishization of experience. The conventional wisdom is that the Leafs would be foolish to go into the playoffs without a veteran safety net behind Reimer in case he falters under the increased pressure of the playoffs. Cox acknowledged in his article that both Reimer and Scrivens have better stats than either Luongo or Kiprusoff, but criticizes them for not having "a moment of NHL playoff experience".

Where does a goalie get said experience? By playing, I would guess. This makes sense because every goaltender who now has experience has at one time, gasp, been inexperienced.

Reimer and Scrivens have proven this year that they do not need a safety net, especially not one who has posted a below-average save percentage in four of the last six seasons. Both Leafs goalies have above-average save percentages and a history of playoff success at other levels. Reimer was an ECHL playoff MVP and Scrivens led the Toronto Marlies to the Calder Cup final last season. Sure, that isn't the Stanley Cup appearances that both Luongo and Kiprusoff have on their resumes, but combined with their NHL success, mean the Leafs duo should at least be given a chance to prove themselves in the NHL. If they aren't allowed to accumulate experience, how will they ever shed the burden of inexperience?

Furthermore, having an elite, experienced goalie isn't a prerequisite for playoff success. Since the lockout, both the Carolina Hurriances and Chicago Blackhawks won the Cup with rookie goaltenders, and only Tim Thomas had a long history of above-average netminding when his team hoisted the Cup. Most other teams either rode a hot goalie without a long track-record of elite play, either for a season (e.g., Jonathan Quick) or even just a post-season (e.g., J.S. Giguere).

Don't be surprised, then, if the Leafs stand pat tomorrow, relying on the duo that is dragging the team into the playoffs. But with 10 hours of TV to fill, don't be surprised if reports on the contrary continue to leak until the final hour.

Trade Deadline 2013: Why the Leafs need Bouwmeester

2013-03-30T19:14:00.001-04:00

With the trade deadline quickly approaching and playoff games at the ACC looking like a reality, the Leafs are in a position to buy at the deadline for the first time in years.

While the Leafs are not yet solid enough contenders to be willing to give up high prospects or first-round picks for rental players, there are options for improving the team this season and beyond that shouldn't deplete the farm system.

After Jarome Iginla's merciful trade out of Calgary, the next most obvious Alberta trade chip is Jay Bouwmeester, the $6.68 million defenceman who hasn't lived up to expectations since signing with the Flames.

But just because Bouwmeester hasn't justified his monster contract doesn't mean he is a bad player. In fact, Bouwmeester is a certifiable top-pairing defenceman.

Much like Dion Phaneuf, Bouwmeester is almost exclusively given the tough defensive assignments for the Flames, and he's done a pretty good job, with the added bonus of still being able to put up a decent amount of points at even strength (per 60 minutes he's scoring at roughly the same rate as P.K. Subban). He is among the league leaders in short-handed time per game and would add a stabilizing defensive element to a sometimes disastrous Leafs backend. And at 29-years-old, there is still some good hockey left in his body.

Acquiring Bouwmeester would give the Leafs two solid options that would vastly improve the team's defence. First, the Leafs could pair Bouwmeester and Phaneuf, playing them the same type of minutes they are already receiving—almost exclusively against the opposition's top line and starting heavily in the defensive zone. That would give the Leafs a solid shutdown pairing, but might not necessarily be the best option.

Alternatively, Toronto could keep Phaneuf with Carl Gunnarsson, which has proved to be a far superior pairing than either Holzer-Phaneuf or Kostka-Phaneuf, although not as good a pair as last season as Gunnarsson still shows signs of a nagging hip injury. That would enable Randy Carlyle to slot Bouwmeester on the second pair, strengthening it defensively, while at the same time spreading around the defensive minutes both Phaneuf and Bouwmeester would have to play. Then, both Phaneuf and Bouwmeester wouldn't be as taxed as they currently are, and the Leafs could get a little extra out of both.

Bouwmeester's offensive game declined once he signed with the Flames (although he's on a 37-point pace right now), but Toronto wouldn't be bringing him in for his offense. There are already better offensive threats in Phaneuf, Cody Franson, Jake Gardiner, and perhaps Morgan Rielly next year. What Toronto lacks is true defensive acumen, especially in the top-4. When Phaneuf and Gunnarsson are paired together there really isn't another duo Carlyle can reliably depend upon defensively.

Bouwmeester is most certainly overpaid at $6.68 million. But it hardly matters. The Leafs have the cap space and there isn't anyone on the market to spend it on after Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry re-upped in Anaheim.

After the inevitable Mike Komisarek buyout this summer, the Leafs will have approximately $23.37 million to sign 10 players. A portion of that money will certainly go towards retaining Nazem Kadri, Carl Gunnarsson, Cody Franson, and perhaps Clarke MacArthur (although as a UFA it depends on his contract demands). Other players like Mark Fraser, Mike Kostka, and Leo Komorov could be kept as well, although none are must signs and shouldn't prove overly expensive either.

Accordingly, even after taking care of their own, the Leafs will have enough money to take on a major contract.

Unless they are prepared to overpay for the likes of David Clarkson, Mike Ribeiro, Nathan Horton, or Ryane Clowe, none of whom they need, or Robyn Regehr, Mark Streit, or Marek Zidlicky, who are old and no longer good, the best use of the ample cap space opening up next year is Bouwmeester.

The benefits of acquiring Bouwmeester are numerous, however, the Leafs are not yet in a position to deal a top prospect (Morgan Rielly is obviously a non-starter in negotiations) and probably should hold next year's first-round pick tightly as well. Unfortunately, the reluctance to part with their most valuable assets could torpedo a deal because the Flames, despite what happened with Jarome Iginla, aren't likely to give Bouwmeester away for free.

According to Pierre LeBrun, the Flames are only going to trade Bouwmeester if they are "blown away by a really strong offer", and some sources have indicated the asking price from the Flyers would have been Sean Couturier, Brayden Schenn, or Matt Read AND MORE. That's Jay Feaster shooting for the moon because he read an inspirational poster and wanted to land amongst the stars. In reality, asking for that type of return has probably resulted in a lot of mean "LOL GTFO" texts.

Even with Feaster's high demands, there are teams kicking tires (and hoping for desperation). As many as six teams are interested in Bouwmeester, so the Leafs will have competition provided they are calling. But if Feaster hopes to deal Bouwmeester he will have to scale back his demands. The St. Louis Blues, one of the teams rumoured to be interested in Bouwmeester, already traded for Jordan Leopold, likely because the price for Bouwmeester was too high.

Hopefully other suitors pass, because as the cap drops next season, the Leafs are in a good position to take on salary, unlike many other teams, and shouldn't require the Flames to retain any salary in a Bouwmeester deal. That could make a trade more palatable for Feaster, and especially Flames owner Murray Edwards. So even if the Flames wait until the summer for a better market to develop, the Leafs will still be strong contenders.

This is a great opportunity for Dave Nonis to upgrade the Leafs at relatively little cost. Bouwmeester is an immediate upgrade to the roster and will make Toronto a much more difficult team to play in the post-season. And unlike most players acquired at the deadline, he would be around for next season as well. Unless Bouwmeester's playoff-less streak/voodoo curse infects the Leafs upon his arrival this is a deal the Leafs need to make.

The Burden of Expectations

2013-03-24T12:13:00.000-04:00

Nikolai Kulemin's name has popped up in trade rumours this year, with most of the rumour mongers citing his drop in production as the primary reason. He's now become a "change of scenery" candidate and one the Leafs should allegedly be happy to trade.

After scoring 30 goals in 2010-11, Kulemin has scored 11 goals over his next 102 games. That's not even 9 over 82 games. When a player drops that far, it's hard not to wonder what's gone wrong. How can a player go from a career high to a career low so quickly?

Well, Kulemin's 30-goal year was the outlier, one likely to never be repeated. When you combine his career-high 30-goal season and his career-low 7-goal season that followed, it averages out to 18, right in line with 15-16 goals Kulemin scored his first two seasons. He wasn't as good as he was in 2010-11 and he wasn't as bad as he was in 2011-12.

But Kulemin only has four goals this season, which would total 10 over a full 82-game season. So compared to his early career, not even his outlier season, he has been conspicuously missing from the score sheet.

But Kulemin's lack of output is primarily a perceptual issue. Relative to his role, Kulemin is actually producing at a high level.

Although the Leafs have used the Grabovski-Kulemin duo as the matchup line in the past, Randy Carlyle has taken it to the extreme this year. The pair are starting less than 40% of their shifts in the offensive zone, and face the opposition's best players on a nightly basis. They don't get a reprieve either, because Carlyle is a slave to the matchup game, although he doesn't have another option as long as Colton Orr and/or Frazer McClaren play on the fourth line.

Among forwards who have played in at least 10 games, Kulemin has faced the fourth toughest competition. In terms of scoring, Kulemin has the 12th most points among the 30 forwards facing the toughest competition (many, like Pavel Datsyuk and Zach Parise, who play big minutes on the power play), even though only Max Talbot has started a lower percentage of shifts in the offensive zone.

Moreover, Kulemin's power play time has effectively disappeared. During his 30-goal campaign he saw 2:39 minutes a night with the man advantage, and is now barely cracking 30 seconds a night. In part this is because Kulemin was doing nothing with his power play time last year and lost it early, but also because the Leafs now have better offensive options on the wing (e.g., Joffrey Lupul, James van Riemsdyk).

But despite being used in a tremendously difficult defensive role and getting practically zero offensive opportunities, Kulemin is producing like a good second-line player. Kulemin is scoring at a rate that would net him 41 points over an 82-game season, which would be the second highest total of his career (next to his outlier 57-point season). His 12 even-strength assists are second on the team only to Nazem Kadri, and although he has only scored 4 goals, he has combined with Grabovski to score 12 even-strength goals, the same total as Phil Kessel and Tyler Bozak combined.

On a fairly poor defensive team, Kulemin is one of the Leafs that Dave Nonis absolutely shouldn't trade, especially if the perception of his value has diminished.

Kulemin is strong defensively and is a big body who doesn't intimidate when the games turn physical, as they will if the Leafs can manage to hold onto a playoff spot. And while he doesn't use his body for the punishing sort of checks that make Rock 'em Sock 'em, he does play a defensively physical game (e.g., using his body to shield the puck, separate the opposition from the puck).

Kulemin is under contract for one more season at a reasonable $2.8 million before becoming an unrestricted free agent. With his newfound defensive role and his drop in goals, he shouldn't be an overly expensive player to retain either. Players get paid for scoring and if Kulemin's value going forward is primarily derived from his defense, he hopefully won't price himself out of Toronto.

But don't expect the trade rumours to end anytime soon.

The Kulemin trade rumours are a product of the burden of expectations. Once you reach a new career high, such as scoring 30 goals, people assume that is your true, repeatable talent level. That expectation ignores all extraneous factors, such as a player's role or power play time, and even luck (Kulemin's shooting percentage spiked considerably during his 30-goal season) that contributed to the career year.

Kulemin isn't going to score 30 goals this year, and in all likelihood he never will again. But that doesn't mean he needs to be traded. Fans just need to trade in their expectations.

The Crimes of Randy Carlyle

2013-03-17T11:57:00.000-04:00

There's a case to be made that Randy Carlyle is a rogue agent sent to infiltrate the Maple Leafs and take them down from the inside.

Carlyle has made a number of curious decisions that are putting the Leafs in a position to lose. The Leafs have to overcome many of Carlyle's decisions on a nightly basis in order to win.

Last night's most glaring example was passing on Mikhail Grabovski over 10 shootout rounds.

"You try to go with your best people from a pure skill standpoint," Carlyle told TSN.ca. "You're always criticized because you didn't pick the right guy when you lose it."

Apparently, from a pure skill standpoint, Cody Franson and Dion Phaneuf are both better than Grabovksi because Carlyle chose both ahead of Grabovski. If Bogosion didn't score to end the game you can be sure the next names on the list weren't Grabovski either. Colton Orr, Fraser McClaren (who would come down from the press box), Mike Brown (who would come back from Edmonton), were surely on the tip of Carlyle's tongue.

Coaches are criticised regardless of what they do, but when they make poor decisions the criticism is justified. Carlyle could have picked Orr, Komorov, and Holzer last night in the shootout, and the decision would still be wrong even if all three scored and the Leafs won the game. It's the process that matters, not the result.

There are a number of reasons why Carlyle's process has made the Leafs less likely to win throughout the season.

The Top-pairing defence: Dion and a mop with a drawn-on smiley face

Until last night, Carlyle has mismanaged the defence badly. Despite owning a left-handed heavy defensive unit, Carlyle insisted on moving Phaneuf to the left side even though Phaneuf has played almost his entire career on the right side (his off-wing). That decision meant Phaneuf could no longer play with Carl Gunnarsson, who did a good job last year in a shutdown role with the captain. Instead, Phaneuf has rotated through two AHL partners, Mike Kostka and Korbinian Holzer. If you're giving the two sheltered minutes that's fine, but Phaneuf plays 25-plus minutes a night against the opposition's top players. That's no place for an AHL player.

Last night Phaneuf was finally (mercifully) reunited with Gunnarsson, and while the pair were on the ice for a goal against, they logged close to 28 minutes and were effective.

Holzer: German for disaster

Continuing with the defence, Carlyle has yet to figure out that Holzer is not an NHL player. His decision making isn't at an NHL level, neither is his skating ability. He is routinely beat in coverage and has a troubling habit of admiring the other team's passes as they go right through him. Last night, for example, Holzer just watched as a simple, stoppable pass went right through his legs and forced Ben Scrivens to make a spectacular save. The announcers were confused and wondered whether Holzer thought his defence partner was behind him. Fans were confused and wondered why Holzer wasn't with the Marlies.

When Holzer is on the ice at even strength the Leafs are under a barrage. The opposition take almost 30 more shot attempts per 60 minutes when Holzer plods onto the ice.

Holzer is still playing second-pair minutes at even strength despite showing no real NHL ability. Even Mike Kostka is a better option.

The best option, however, is only a short ride down the Gardiner Expressway. Jake Gardiner, after missing some time with a concussion, is back to manhandling the AHL. He's logging huge minutes and has 13 points in his last 16 games. He has 31 points in 42 games and Marlies' coach Dallas Eakins said he is "absolutely" NHL ready.

Being one of the few positive puck-possession defencemen for the Leafs last season, Gardiner has the ability to improve a brutal Toronto defence that is filled with place holders. There is really no reason to keep him in the AHL. It's not like there are better options ahead of him on the depth chart actively suppressing him. If anything, Korbinian Holzer is a German robot sent to the NHL by Gardiner himself to show Carlyle how badly he is missing Gardiner's skills.

Nazem Kadri: "Please, sir, I want some more minutes"

Carlyle has to be commended for bringing Kadri along slowly, putting him in a position to succeed. Kadri gets matched up against third-line quality competition and is receiving slightly more starts in the offensive zone than defensive zone. At the beginning of the season Kadri wasn't allowed anywhere near the defensive zone, but as his comfort level has increased, Carlyle has been more trusting of the youngster.

Kadri has responded with 27 points in 29 games and is tied with Phil Kessel for the team lead in points. That's good! And sure, maybe he isn't ready for the first line, but he's still only registering around 15 minutes a night. Tyler Bozak, by comparison, is playing more minutes than any other Leaf forward, despite being hot garbage at most aspects of hockey outside the faceoff circle. Bozak is ninth on the team in even strength points and is scoring less per 60 minutes than Frazer McClaren. He isn't very good defensively either, so it's not like he makes up for his slingshot offense by playing tough in his own end.

Because he's a bad hockey player, there is no excuse for continually playing Tyler Bozak on the first power play unit. Kadri has 6 power play points, one more than Bozak, despite receiving about a minute less each night on the power play. Bozak's power play time should be stripped and divided between Kadri and Mikhail Grabovski. Speaking of...

The Burying of Mikhail Grabovski: A Crime by the Fourth Line

Grabovski is scoring at the worst rate of his career. He only has 11 points in 29 games after signing a big 5-year deal, and is now playing only 16:43 a game, the lowest total since his first season with the Leafs. He also is getting the seventh most power play ice time among Leafs forwards, almost half of what Bozak gets, and far less than he did the last two seasons. In part, this reduction is due to Kadri's emergence. It's also due to Carlyle's preference for Bozak, likely because he's marginally better in the faceoff circle.

In addition to eroding power play time, Grabovski's lack of production is due entirely to the way Carlyle has been using him at even strength. Grabovski is being treated like a checker, rather than a scorer. He faces the opposition's best players, like he has most of the past two seasons, but is now being absolutely buried in the defensive end. Grabovski is only starting 36.1% of his shifts in the offensive zone. That's similar to players like Eric Belanger, Boyd Gordon, Chris Kelly, and Max Talbot. Goal scorers, they ain't. The last two years when Grabovski flirted with 30 goals, he started over 50% of his shifts in the offensive zone. That makes a huge difference in the offense a player can generate.

Unfortunately, Carlyle has no choice. Well he does, but he takes that choice away from himself by insisting on playing both Colton Orr and Fraser McClaren on the fourth line for most of the season. Last year, with David Steckel on the fourth line, the Leafs could give Grabovski a break from the defensive end and allow Steckel to take most of the draws in the defensive end. Now, however, the fourth line has to be sheltered like a hobo in a snowstorm, because they can barely survive a 30-second shift.

Grabovski isn't scoring because he suddenly became bad at hockey over the summer. He isn't scoring because Carlyle is turning him into an overpriced checker, all because he is infatuated with punchers who can't help his hockey team.

The Leafs jumped out to a quick start to this season despite Carlyle's decisions, not because of them. From playing Mike Kostka 30 minutes a night on the top pair to playing a punching line five minutes a night, Carlyle's coaching moves have had a deleterious ripple effect through the rest of the roster and are putting the Leafs in a position to lose.

Last night, many of Carlyle's moves were in line with what a large majority of Leafs fans have be clamouring for: Gunnarsson on the top pair; the reunification of the Grabovksi-MacArthur-Kulemin line; and a more capable fourth line. The Leafs still got hammered in the second period, ultimately losing in a shootout. One loss doesn't make those decisions wrong, however. It didn't get the results, but it was a better process. And over the remaining 19 games, using a sound process will produce better results.

A losing streak caused Carlyle to readjust his poor process, and he was rewarded with another loss. But going back to what worked for him earlier in the season won't produce results either, it will only ensure another playoff-less spring for Toronto.

Is Ryan Getzlaf Overpaid?

2013-03-09T10:40:00.000-05:00

It's not often that an elite No. 1 centre hits the open market, and the Anaheim Ducks made sure it won't happen this year, giving Ryan Getzlaf an 8-year deal worth $8.25 million a season.

Getzlaf now owns the fourth highest cap hit in the league, tied with Eric Staal and behind Alex Ovechkin, Evgeni Malkin, and Sidney Crosby. That's big money, especially for a player coming off a down season. But Getzlaf has already proved that last season was an anomaly. He's tied for fifth in points with 29, and is on pace to register the best season of his career—a career in which he's only failed to break a point-a-game three times, two of which were his first two seasons.

Throughout his career, Getzlaf has been a dominant two-way centre; coaches aren't afraid to start him in the defensive zone and he's even being used to kill penalties under Bruce Boudreau. He is a puck-possession beast that plays a physical game. If there is any player worthy of huge money, it's Getzlaf.

But regardless of Getzlaf's ability, $8.25 million is a huge number that elicits a strong negative reaction. However, despite its humongous size, Getzlaf's deal is fair market price for a No. 1 centre about to become an unrestricted free agent.

Below is a table of No. 1 (or fringe No. 1) centres who were either unrestricted free agents or were about to become unrestricted free agents since the salary cap's implementation.

	Year	Age¹	Points per gm before signing	Contract Length	Cap Hit	Cap Hit %
Centres who went to July 1
Chris Drury	2007	31	0.74	5	$7.07m	14.06
Danny Briere	2007	30	0.78	8	$6.5m	12.92
Scott Gomez	2007	28	0.82	7	$7.36m	14.63
Mike Cammalleri	2009	27	0.79	5	$6.0m	10.56
Brad Richards	2011	31	0.93	9	$6.67m	10.37
					Average	12.51
Centres who re-signed before July 1
Pavel Datsyuk	2007	29	0.9	7	$6.7m	13.32
Joe Thornton	2007	29	1.00	3	$7.2m	12.70
Mike Ribeiro	2008	28	0.68	5	$5.0m	8.82
Vincent Lecavalier	2008	29	0.85	11	$7.73m	13.6
Henrik Sedin	2009	29	0.71	5	$6.1m	10.74
Patrick Marleau	2010	31	0.73	4	$6.9m	11.62
Joe Thornton	2010	32	1.00	3	$7.0m	10.89
Mikko Koivu	2010	28	0.73	7	$6.75m	10.5
Patrice Bergeron	2010	26	0.74	3	$5.0m	7.78
Sidney Crosby	2012	26	1.41	12	$8.7m	13.53
Ryan Getzlaf	2013	28	0.94	8	$8.25	12.83
					Average	11.48
1. Age in first year of new contract

Getzlaf is being paid more than the average deal given out to UFA No. 1 centres. On average, players who re-sign before hitting free agency leave a bit of money on the table, approximately 1% of the cap, which works out to about $662,000 under today's cap. Getzlaf's cap hit percent is slightly higher than the average centre that tests the market on July 1 (by about $205,000 in today's dollars) and those centres that re-sign with their team (by about $868,000). Simply based on dollars, you could conclude Getzlaf is slightly overpaid compared to what the market has rewarded since the salary cap's introduction.

However, Getzlaf has been substantially more productive than other free agent centres. Getzlaf's 0.94 points per game is higher than the average for centres hitting July 1 (0.81) and those who re-up with their current team (0.88). Over a full season, that difference works out to be between 5 and 10 points. Moreover, out of the 15 other centres who have gone to or approached unrestricted free agency, Getzlaf has produced more points than all but two, Sidney Crosby and Joe Thornton. Yet his cap hit percent is only the seventh highest.

Compared only to players with at least 0.90 points per game before signing their new deal, Getzlaf's deal is only slightly larger (12.83% compared to 12.16%, or about $430,000 under today's cap).

The reason why Getzlaf deal is larger is not because the Ducks capitulated to his every demand. It is because the new CBA has altered free agency. Getzlaf is the first major signing affected by contract term limits. Teams can no longer tack on extra years at substantially lower salaries to deflate the cap hit. For example, Sidney Crosby's contract would have a $10.8 million cap hit if it was limited to 8 years; Vincent Lecavalier's would be $9.81 million; and Brad Richards' would be $7.38 million. So by having a maximum contract limit, the Ducks are essentially missing out on around $1-2 million in cap saving each year because they can no longer circumvent the cap.

Even at $8.25 million, Getzlaf's deal is still pretty favourable compared to some other UFA deals, and not just the bonkers ones given out by the New York Rangers. Getzlaf's $8.25 million deal is actually a better value than the $6.7 million deal Pavel Datsyuk signed with the Red Wings back in 2007. Getzlaf is younger and more productive than Datsyuk was when he signed, yet Datsyuk's deal took a bigger chunk of the cap (13.32% vs. 12.83%).

In addition, a player like Getzlaf has never hit free agency. All other productive centres about to become UFAs get snapped up by their current team. In terms of production, the closest player to Getzlaf that tested the market was Brad Richards, but he was five years older and already in the decline phase of his career. And with teams like Toronto desperate for a centre and with cash to spend, there is little doubt Getzlaf would have received offers of $9 miilion a season or more had he made it to July 1.

Although Getzlaf didn't really take a home-town discount, he did leave some money on the table. The question now is whether he left enough for Corey Perry.

Will Kadri Kill the Getzlaf Dream?

2013-03-07T20:15:00.003-05:00

For as long as the need for a No. 1 centre has existed, Leafs fans have looked to July 1, 2013 and dreamt of Ryan Getzlaf. But with Nazem Kadri's emergence, this off-season's game plan might be changing.

Getzlaf is a dominant first-line centre, one having a major bounce-back year, leading the Anaheim Ducks with 27 points in 22 games, and with that comes a heavy price. On a seven-year deal, which would take him into his mid-30s, Getzlaf is going to make at least $8 million a season. That's big money, the majority of which will get paid out during what typically amounts to decline years, even for some of the most elite players.

Alternatively, Kadri, despite playing third-line minutes and getting second-line power play time, leads the Leafs in points with 24 in 24 games and is not yet in his prime. Moreover, on a per-minute basis, Kadri is scoring at an elite clip. Of forwards who have played at least 10 games, Kadri has more even-strength points per minute than all but five players. He has done this while playing substantial minutes with Leo Komorov and Colton Orr, two no-offense players (although Komorov at least brings something worthwhile).

He has exceeded all expectations in his first full season and represents an in-house solution to the first-line centre problem.

One of the previous knocks against Kadri, his defense, is no longer a major issue. He has been much better defensively this season, ridding his game of a lot of the high-risk plays in high-risk areas (around the offensive and defensive blue line in particular) that infuriated Ron Wilson. In addition, he's got a nasty edge to his game and isn't afraid to throw a body check, some of which have been thunderous.

He is struggling in the face-off circle, winning only 44.8% of his draws, although this is only slightly lower than Evgeni Malkin (45.6%) and Steven Stamkos (46.6%), so it's not a fatal flaw. Plus, Kadri has been moved back and forth from the wing to centre throughout his pro career, so knowing that he is going to stick in the middle will hopefully force him to practice and become better.

One issue with giving Kadri the first line job is that he might not be ready for the jump in competition. Randy Carlyle has wisely brought Kadri along very slowly, trying to match him up against the weakest competition possible (usually third liners) and giving him more starts in the offensive zone. Recently, however, Carlyle is starting to trust Kadri a little more, giving him more defensive zone face offs and seeing how he handles tougher matchups. Against the Islanders on Feb. 28, for example, Carlyle started matching Kadri's line against Tavares' line as the game progressed.

But being the No. 1 centre also means going up against the opposition's top defensive pair. Hello, Zdeno Chara. Who knows how Kadri will handle playing against the top defencemen, rather than the second or third pair. Therefore, pencilling Kadri's name between Kessel and JVR/Lupul next season is premature. So, instead of just hoping Kadri can take on the first-line duties, he should be given an audition at some point this season.

At this point we know what Tyler Bozak can do on the first line. While not valueless (Bozak is pretty strong on the draws), Bozak is being carried offensively by Kessel and JVR/Lupul and is pretty poor defensively. He's just not very good. At this point everyone knows he's not a No. 1 centre, even the people who like him, so why continually slot him above his head? Swap Bozak and Kadri and see how each fares. If Bozak could be a great third-line centre, like many claim, why not get a first-hand look? Plus, taking Bozak away from his two main breadwinners will deflate his stats and worsen his free agency ammunition, a benefit if the Leafs are interested in bringing him back.

For the rest of the year, Kadri should be given increasing amounts of ice time, particularly on the power play, and placed in increasingly tougher situations (to an extent). Eventually, he should get a chance to ride with Kessel.

If Kadri shows enough production during his first-line centre audition, run with him next year. If Kadri can maintain that production next season (60 points over 82 games is the production of a poor No. 1 centre and 70 points is that of an average No. 1 centre), he would be an solid option at a fraction of the cost of Getzlaf, allowing the Leafs to spend their ample resources on other areas of need.

Most Leafs fans have been dreaming about Ryan Getzlaf as the No. 1 centre in Toronto, but it might turn out that the Dream was right for the job all along.

Toronto's Truculent Turnaround

2013-02-24T10:24:00.000-05:00

The Leafs have rocketed up the standings and it is all thanks to a Brian Burke-brand of truculence. At least that was the narrative on Saturday night’s Hockey Night in Canada telecast.

Unfortunately, it isn’t even remotely true.

The Leafs currently lead the league in hits, which is the main stat being cited for the Leafs’ newfound physicality. It must be the reason the Leafs currently sit tied for sixth in the Eastern Conference, unlike last year when the Leafs finished in the lottery. Except last year the Leafs finished fourth in total hits, so are the Leafs truly a different team?

Yes, but it isn’t really because they are tougher.

There is definitely a benefit to being a tough team that plays physically. The Bruins won the Stanley Cup two years ago after bullying the league into submission. But the hits stat isn’t a very good measure of a team’s physicality. During Boston’s Stanley Cup season they finished 21st in hits, behind so-called soft teams like Vancouver and Detroit.

What the hits stat is, in actuality, is a measure of which team doesn’t have the puck. Teams without the puck are going to have more opportunities to hit the opposition. And when you don’t have the puck you don’t have a chance to score, so saying having a lot of hits helps you win is like saying having a lot of credit cards helps you get rich.

Over the last two years, when the Leafs have been among the league leaders in hits, they have also been league laggards in puck possession. In even strength situations when the score in close, the Leafs are allowing more than 54% of all shots—fifth worst in the entire league. That metric, which is strongly correlated with the amount of points a team has, is about as bad as last season for Toronto, when the team finished with the third worst mark in the league.

So hits, which are being called the reason for the Leafs' transformation, are actually a better measure of how bad the Leafs actually are at controlling the play.

Furthermore, two of the four players being praised for infusing toughness into the team’s lineup, Colton Orr and Frazer McClaren, are actually two of the worst players in terms of puck possession and make the Leafs demonstrably worse whenever they hit the ice. Throw in Mike Brown, and the Leafs have a fourth line that performs a minor miracle each night they somehow manage to escape the rink without a goal against.

Randy Carlyle jumps through hoops each game to get Orr, McClaren, and Brown out against fourth line players, more often than not in the offensive zone, and still sees his team out-shot terribly when he does. Over 60 minutes, the trio allow between 15-25 more shot attempts than they take. You can see top-line players practically salivating whenever those guys get stuck out on the ice. In all likelihood, having those three players on the ice is going to end poorly.

Even worse, having a fourth line of players with one skill (punching faces) means the Mikhail Grabovski line has to face pretty much all the tough defensive assignments. Last year Grabovski was given a slight reprieve because David Steckel took most of the defensive zone face-offs, freeing up Grabovski for slightly more offensively advantageous situations (although he was still used as the primary shut-down centre). This year, however, Carlyle has smartly brought Nazem Kadri along slowly, trying to match him up against weaker lines and giving him more starts in the offensive zone. And combined with the need to do the same for Orr, McClaren, and Brown, albeit without anywhere near the same level of offense, means Grabovski faces off against the opposition’s top players and starts almost two-thirds of his shifts in the defensive zone, a percentage similar to checking-line players like Max Talbot, Eric Belanger, and Brian Boyle.

Essentially, instead of making the team better, Orr, McClaren, and Brown make the team worse when they are on the ice and when they are off. Just like the team’s inflated hit count, the truculent trio is not responsible for Toronto’s residence in the playoff picture.

What is responsible for the Leafs' turnaround, however, is extremely simple to identify.

First, the penalty kill has become competent. For the last seven years the Leafs penalty kill was at best bad and at worst historically awful. Competent was a dream. This year, however, Carlyle has coaxed a decent performance out of his short-handed unit, managing to get a PK that sits 15th in the league. It’s barely average, but at least now the impending doom of a goal against doesn’t wash over the whole team every time someone heads to the box. That in itself is worthy of a parade.

Second, and most importantly, is the inexperienced goaltending duo of Ben Scrivens and James Reimer. In front of the two goalies, the Leafs have enjoyed a .927 team save percentage, the third best in the entire league. In recent years, the Leafs were lucky to break .900. There is no way to win if your goalies can’t even provide average netminding. Elite goaltending cleans up a lot of mistakes and the Leafs can get away with giving up the majority of shots.

If the Leafs received the current level of goaltending last year, they would have allowed close to 80 fewer goals. That would have turned them from a team with a minus-33 goal differential to one with a plus-45 goal differential. That would have been third best in the league.

Unless team toughness has somehow inspired Reimer and Scrivens to play like world-class goalies, it isn’t responsible for Toronto's chance at the playoffs.

To be fair, the Leafs do seem like a tougher team to play against. Both Kadri and Leo Komorov have added a sandpaper element to the forward group and Mark Fraser has proved a tremendous, tough element to the third-line defensive pair with Cody Franson. The difference between these three players and the fourth line is that Kadri, Komorov, and Fraser can all play. You don't need to say a prayer every time they step on the ice.

Overall, however, the media is completely ignoring the true reason for the Leafs' improvement over last season, instead ascribing too much weight to a flawed, unrepresentative stat that helps support a narrative. Luckily, the media could get a second chance at identifying the importance of the goalies, because despite elite goaltending, the Leafs are no better through 19 games than they were to start last season. So if the goaltending goes south, expect the team to follow.

World Heroes

2013-02-13T21:47:00.000-05:00

During my time at university, my friends Jake and Tom wrote a hockey version of Space Jam titled "World Heroes". It was so much more than that simple description, however.

It was a big hit among our friend group and made its 1500-word debut on Paul Maurice's Wikipedia page, where it lasted a few days before someone took it down. It was a constant topic of conversation, an endless source of hilarity, and even the inspiration for Halloween costumes. It eventually spawned a Facebook group that surprisingly attracted people who weren't in our friend group and consisted of people arguing over how badass a fictional Paul Maurice really was. He was much more badass than that fictional Chuck Norris, for the record.

I recently found the original story on my computer and just had to share it. Now, this is a period piece. There are players that made the alien-battling squad that seem laughable today, but it was written around 2006, so keep that in mind. Also, the roster was almost constantly changing and tongue-in-cheek at times; for example, at one point Roger Federer was playing defence. So, if you argue that so-and-so should have made it, then you're missing the point.

Aside from some minor grammatical changes, the story is the same as it was originally written.

In 2009, Zorp Orgad, a representative of the Martian Republic of Power will descend upon Earth and demand a seven-game series between the best possible compilation of human players and the Martian All-Stars. The Martians state that if the humans either decline or lose the series the Earth will be destroyed.

Shortly thereafter a team of players was assembled by Earth, aptly named "World Heroes". That day and the several weeks following would witness the most important inter-galactic Ice Hockey battle to ever take place, and arguably the most decisive moments in the 4.5 billion years of Earth's history.

Captained by the incredible Joe Sakic, World Heroes consisted of the nineteen finest men on the planet. Joe Sakic, Jarome Iginla, Alexander Ovechkin, Sidney Crosby, Jaromir Jagr, Peter Forsberg, Mats Sundin, Henrik Zetterberg, Dany Heatley, Gary Roberts, Teemu Selanne, and Chris Drury filled out the forwards. Even as impressive was the defence, led by Scott Niedermayer, and accompanied by Nicklas Lidstrom, Chris Pronger, Tomas Kaberle, Dion Phaneuf, and Jason Smith. Martin Brodeur was named the lone goaltender.

Though the team had been named, the world was still in need of a leader. On August 7th, 2009 the United States Government had no choice but to name Paul Maurice, currently on tour with the ILKF (International League of Knife Fighting), the coach of the team that would decide the fate of the Earth.

Immediately following his appointment as coach of World Heroes there were several attempts made on the life of Paul Maurice by Martian spies as well as the bitter Lindy Ruff, all of which were easily avoided and the attackers were swiftly dismembered.

When quizzed about the events Paul Maurice shrugged and promptly responded, "I've killed before and I'll kill again."

As you can imagine, controversy was rife even before the puck was dropped.

Allegations of outrageous cocaine use and constant solicitation of hookers were thrown at Maurice relentlessly by the media. On top of that, he had recently been arrested for the possession of thirty-two thousand guns and several rocket launchers. He publicly silenced his critics by staring into the news camera for thirty minutes without a blink. The world took notice. This was the man they needed, this was the man we wanted. The hero was born.

Outside of the Paul Maurice media circus there were other pressing dilemmas. Joe Sakic, controversial captain of World Heroes, was coming off his worst season ever, with only 12 goals and 48 points and a minus-19 plus/minus rating. Sakic and the Colorado Avalanche had missed the playoffs for the first time in the team’s history. A large group of would-be supporters, led by Jason Spezza, who was surprisingly omitted from the team, called for the prompt departure of captain Joseph Sakic.

At a press conference leading up to the series, Jason Spezza unleashed a verbal battering against Sakic. Before Sakic was able to reply Paul Maurice clutched Spezza by the throat and punched out the whiny centreman.

The stage was set. Games one, two, five and seven were to be played on Earth, while games three, four and six would be held on Mars. The Earth games were played in Rexall Place, Edmonton, Madison Square Gardens, New York, CSKA Sport Palace, Moscow and Maple Leaf Gardens, Toronto. All games on Mars were played on the dreaded thirty-nine kilometre high, eight-hundred and fifty thousand seat Mount Olympus Chaos Arena. When questioned about whether he and his players would suffer a disadvantage playing in such a location, Maurice responded by saying, "I'm sure we'll enjoy the scenery," and took another puff of his cigarette.

Thus, the series began with Maurice looking on.

Games one and two were won easily by the Martian All-Stars. With 6-0 and 10-1 victories, respectively, World Heroes were collectively brought to their knees and the global population silenced. Hope dwindled.

On the shuttle flight to Mars, Paul Maurice gave what is now known, in Martian, as the "DALA-GRAK", the most inspiring and prolific speech ever given. Onlookers still wonder whether a small piece of the late Winston Churchill had been reborn inside the man who spoke before them.

In closing, Paul Maurice declared "Times will change... era's end... but we are all forever men, and as men, we write the pages of history and history does not end anytime soon."

Game 3 began.

World Heroes came out firing. They went ahead 2-0 in the first period on goals by Peter Forsberg and Henrik Zetterberg. The human side would have been ahead by even more if it had not been for the superb goaltending displayed by Nebulus-9.

The second period saw a dramatic change in play. With several questionable penalties called against World Heroes, the Martian All-Stars were able to capitalize and net three power play goals. Our Heroes were shocked. Going into the third period, World Heroes faced the possibility of falling to an insurmountable 3-0 series deficit.

With their biggest stars failing to impress and hope fading fast, it was the young Henrik Zetterberg who played the role of saviour. Two late goals in the dying minutes gave himself a hat-trick and gave World Heroes a badly needed victory.

Game 4 had quite a buzz while Head Coach Paul Maurice was badly hungover. While outing his smoke on Chris Drury's neck he looked on at the dressing room wall with brutal contempt. The demons inside Paul Maurice could not go unnoticed. Unaware of how his present condition affected his team, World Heroes lost the game 4-1 in what is generally regarded as the most lacklustre effort by a group of men. Contributing to the pain was the tragic death of a World Hero... Henrik Zetterberg. Caught squarely in the jaw by the shoulder of Rakton Klack, the Swedish Game 3 star was killed instantly. Paul Maurice, at the time, could hardly have noticed. He would.

Maurice was the first to realize the blame for the events of Game 4 fell solely on his shoulders. He was determined to make amends. He promised himself he would kick the alcohol for the remainder of the series, cigarettes and women would have to do.

On a more personal matter, Paul Maurice sought out and murdered Rakton Klack. He was ready to go back to Earth, he was ready to win.

Games 5 and 6 saw World Heroes put together some fine performances and force a game 7, with Alexander Mogilny coming out of retirement to replace the deceased Zetterberg and play some very fine, smart, and quality defensive hockey. As good as the Martian All-Stars were, World Heroes were that much better.

With victory no longer a certainty, the Martian Republic of Power turned to more devious tactics in order to win the series. They set out to end Paul Maurice's tenure as coach of World Heroes... permanently.

On the day of the Game 6 victory two Martian police officers were killed during a routine traffic stop. Somehow, Mars Judicial Council of Judgement placed Maurice under arrest for both murders. He was being framed.

When asked "how do you plan on defending yourself?" Paul Maurice explained that he would be his own attorney. As he was being mocked by the Martian judge for defending himself, Paul Maurice responded in a rising whisper and said, "Well, your honour... the best defence... is a good offence." After which he pulled out two guns and began unloading on those present in the courtroom. Once the guns were quieted the chase was on. Maurice leapt through the third floor courthouse window and fled the thousands of rampaging Martian soldiers who were hot on his tail. Maurice could see the end of his road, the Martian gorge opened up before him with his attackers still trailing—bullets whizzing past his head like flies. With no other choice, Paul Maurice leapt into the gorge. Shortly after jumping Paul Maurice ignited his jetpack, leaving the Martians in the dust.

Game 7 was here.

World Heroes hit the ice with intensity never before seen by men. They grabbed the opening goal on a classic Joe Sakic wrist-shot from just above the hash marks. The Martians, however, would not lay down and went on to score the next three goals. Stunned but not beaten, World Heroes fought back, once again led by Joe Sakic. A one-timer through the five-hole and a shorthanded goal that Nebulus-9 would certainly like to have back tied the game for World Heroes. Still, the Martians took the lead again before the end of the second. Though unrecorded, whatever it was that Maurice said in the dressing room was undoubtedly the deciding factor. Tying the game was Joe Sakic with his fourth goal. It would come down to overtime.

It was once again Joe Sakic scoring the goal with Paul Maurice looking on with adoring eyes. Scott Niedermayer sprung Joe Sakic on a breakaway where he fired the puck over the glove hand of the Martian 'tender. World Heroes had won, Earth was safe.

Bonds between captains and coaches have come and gone, but this was different. And while the glory was sweet, the battle for Maurice had not ended, the bitter taste remained. As a gesture of love to the father he never had, Joe Sakic cut the "C" out of his jersey and gave it to Paul. Then, with heavy heart, watched the world's most dangerous man blast away into the sky... forever.

Joffrey Lupul Takes Over the NHL Twitter Account

2013-02-07T10:20:00.000-05:00

Joffrey Lupul is one of the few athletes I follow on Twitter. For the most part, if an athlete says something interesting it's bound to be retweeted into my timeline so I don't have to follow the inane "bro tweets" (see Brett Lawrie) that you have to filter through to get the lone nugget of interesting information.

Lupul, however, is a different case. While not as funny as Roberto Luongo, who has the most brilliant Twitter feed of any athlete, Lupul comes off as a likeable, genuine guy and is a really good follow.

He took over the NHL account for a few hours on Wednesday and was funny, interesting, and enlightening.

View the story "Joffrey Lupul Takes Over the @NHL Account" on Storify Joffrey Lupul Takes Over the @NHL Account The Maple Leafs winger answers fans questions, makes a masturbation joke and explains that everyone loves Teemu. Storified by Matt Horner· Wed, Feb 06 2013 17:22:59 Its @jlupul. I am in control of this account for the next hr. Send your questions w the hashtag #asklupul and I'll get back at u - JLNHL I have a cast on my right arm so bear with me.. It makes it really hard to type, not to mention other things.. -JLNHL @NHL What type of workouts do players do during the season? #AskLupulUncle Don @uncleDon4 Typically during the yr is about maintaining strength and power you have developed during the off-season.Light wkoutshigh reps JLNHL @NHL @mapleleafs can you explain this? #AskLupul http://pic.twitter.com/FP0lIEvmKevin Chapman @TherealestKH This made me laugh. Hockey is about reading and reacting on the ice. In this pic we appear to have done both wrongNHL @NHL how's the arm feeling? #AskLupulAlicia Hernandez @AliciaHernand3z feeling better everyday. It's not gonna be better overnight but i am progressingNHL A band/Musician you think everyone should see live at least once @NHL #AskLupulCandace @Khandii My Morning Jacket, Pearl Jam, Jack White, M83.. I could go on all day, but thats a good place to startNHL @NHL why did you decide to come back to toronto after signing the deal overseas before the lockout was over? #AskLupulZach Fodor @ZFods412 I realized my heart was in the NHL and i was optimistic that the deal would get done sooner rather than later -JLNHL @JLupul do you still play the guitar??? :) #AskLupul @NHLIzabela Pitula @IzabelaLeafsfan ya all the time! This broken arm has shut that down for a while though- JLNHL @nhl hey lupul, when do you think your buddy phil will snap his scoring slump? #AskLupulSpencer Davis @SpencerDavis29 Absolutely and it will happen in a BIG way. -JLNHL @NHL @mapleleafs What is your most memorable moment on the ice? #AskLupulAndrew .@_AndyAmazing_ Game 7 OT winner while playing for PhillyNHL @NHL what do you think of Matt Frattin's play in your absence? #AskLupulTim Yaceyko .@tyaceyko15 He has been terrific. He has stepped in done everything asked of him and moreNHL @nhl do you sing? #AskLupulAmelia .@Amelia_C_87 I have my moments. I don't know if they're good or bad but they are "moments"NHL @JLupul what's some of your favourite bands these days lupes? @NHL #AskLupulBrandon Bennett .@BforBenny4 listening to the new Jim James album as we speak. Also new Local Natives is solid -JLNHL Your favorite player growing up @NHL #AskLupulRyan .@ZzMCKINNEYzZ Modano, Yzerman, Sakic -JLNHL @NHL #AskLupul Do you miss being a Flyer?Nikki Shiffler .@authorityisdead Philly was a great place to play w amazing fans but I was born to play in Toronto- JLNHL Check out my other twitter act @LupesTroops which honors a member of the Armed Forces every Leafs home game. Real heroes -JLNHL @nhl @JLupul #AskLupul Did you enjoy getting boo'd in Ottawa? Thoughts on the battle of Ontario??Michael Cabrelle .@LegendKiller613 I love it. Those games along w Montreal are the most fun to play in -JLNHL @NHL Which opposition arena is your favorite to play in? #AskLupulSuzieC .@CurleeSue Madison Square Garden. Tons of history, passionate fans. Great atmosphere. - JLNHL @nhl #asklupul can i sign your cast? :)Kristine Alcatraz .@MoxieKristine I got a black cast so people wouldn't ask me this.. -JLNHL @NHL who is the favorite to win the standley cup #AsklupulThomas palmeri .@YankeesNation24 I would assume u mean Stanley.. West- LA East-Pitt but as we saw last year, anything can happen once you're in! -JLNHL @nhl #asklupul sorry man I really want to get on your nerves... Leafs really do suck #gosensgoMich .@1989MSD Sens fans are always on my nerves.. -JLNHL @NHL what kind of car do you have? #AskLupul .@bozieliciousCR7 I am driving a Porsche from the good folks at Pfaff Porsche in Toronto. Nice plug there i must say. -JLNHL @nhl #asklupul what's harder not playing or dealing with the TOR media on the daily?Jim Creighton .@Cr8tes26 Not playing for a professional athlete is the most difficult thing in the world -JLNHL @nhl during the all star fantasy draft in Ottawa, how did you handle the Sens fans? It looked like you took it well. good sport #AskLupulDeeAnn 安安 .@NHLfanatic30 That was a fun experience. The whole All-Star wend is about the fans and the city/people of Ottawa did a great job hosting-JLNHL @NHL when will Kessel score his first goal of the season? #AskLupulRyan Pommainville .@RyanPomm I couldn't tell you but I would expect his second to follow it up VERY quicklyNHL @NHL kadri has had a solid season so far.. how do you feel about his game? #AskLupulSean Winick .@ImWini Naz is becoming a better player everyday. Its great to see. He is still just scratching the surface -JLNHL @NHL #AskLupul I thought I saw you in a Starbucks yesterday, so I asked the guy if he was Mr. Lupul. Then he said no. Ruined my entire day.Shane .@__Wils0n__ thats not a question... but a bummer nevertheless - JLNHL @NHL who's the toughest defender to play against? #asklupulRio Consalvo .@RioConsalvo Chara is always tough. He took over for Lidstrom for me in that regard.- JLNHL @NHL what are you doing to keep yourself in game shape for when you come back? #AskLupulMs. Hockey .@TheHockeyyGirls training lower body and biking everyday. Hopefully get back on the ice for conditioning asap when cast is taken off- JLNHL @NHL Hey Joffrey, why isn't your name Jeffery like a normal person? #AskLupulSteve Danger .@RealSteveDanger Cause I'm not normal... oh and it's what my parents gave me. I'm trying to work w it -JLNHL @NHL What NHL Player/Legend did you idolize when you were younger? #AskLupulCam McArthur .@CamMcArthur Growing up in Edmonton it was all Gretzky, Messier and later Dougie Weight -JLNHL @nhl Do you play as yourself in @EASPORTSNHL 13? #asklupulScott Escobar .@WhigParty11 @EASPORTSNHL I scored with myself against my 6 year year old cousin last summer and I let him know -JLNHL @nhl Thoughts on the Finnish Flash, Teemu Selänne #asklupulRene .@renekivilaakso Teemu is not only one of the best players I have played with, he is possibly the best person. Learnt so much from him -JLNHL @NHL Did Phanuef ever say sorry for breaking your arm #AskLupultKush .@Tkush95 Yes like 20 times. Not his fault whatsoever. Just a bad break. Front of the net is a tough place to play -JLNHL I'm gonna stay on a little longer and keep going if you're cool w that. Follow me on twitter @jlupul and I'll try and do this more often -JLNHL .@blackwhiteworld I have two Yamaha's and a Martin. My first Yamaha i ever got is still my favorite to play -JLNHL @NHL who has the best hands in the NHL? #AskLupulBrendan Schmidt .@schmidtty44 Pavel "silky mitts" Datsyuk by far. Nazem "the dream" Kadri takes the cake on our team though -JLNHL @NHL my sons coach is always switching him to LW then back to RW..is this a good thing or should he concentrate on one side? #asklupulStacie .@WenzowskiStacie No variety is good.I player center in junior,then RW and now i play LW. Its good to be comfortable anywhere on the ice -JLNHL @NHL #AskLupul what's your pre game meal? And toe to heel or heel to toe?Lukas Weeks .@weekz12caps Chicken pasta etc.. and always heel to toe cause thats the way my dad showed me! -JLNHL RT “@AIHL: #AskLupul @NHL Would you like the NHL to play games in Australia in the near future? #AIHL”Daniel Eade .@DanielEade @AIHL I went to Aus for 2 weeks after the season last year. Loved every minute. Been dying to go back. Lets do it -JLNHL @NHL Who Is The Most Respected Person In The League, In Your Eyes? #AskLupulAle© Nie®zwi©k .@Bean_OF_Butter Teemu Sellanne. It should be a penalty for checking him- JLNHL @NHL What's your favourite part of living in Toronto? PS: It's the best city eh? #AskLupulNevada .@aurevoir_soleil Ummm everything. The fans, food, culture... I could go on al day -JLNHL @NHL What do you enjoy doing most when you aren't on the ice or working out? #asklupulBeli .@Belimmyy playing/listening to music. I find myself at a LOT of shows in the summer. Have a big passion for music -JLNHL @NHL are u a bigger beauty than Scott Hartnell? Or a close second ? #asklupulAnthony Bada .@Badalenko Tough call. I have yet to mock a fan who looked like Hulk Hogan. Harts makes hockey fun to watch and play. Great guy! -JLNHL @nhl is blowing up my news feed right now with this #asklupul business. I respect it, but sheesh that's a lot of tweets.Robyn Hainsworth .@robo_robyn Ya sorry bout that. I hate when people clog up my timeline as well -JLNHL @NHL #AskLupul what was the first thing that popped into your head when the doctors said you have a broken arm?Ryan Carp .@r_y_a_n_c_a_r_p I knew it was broken before i was even off the ice -JLNHL @NHL what is your favourite "hidden gem" in Toronto? #AskLupulryan black .@ryaneblack Black Hoof on Dundas or numerous places on Ossington -JLNHL It's been real.I know I didn't get to even 1% of your questions but I will try to in the future on my account @jlupul. Thx for your ?'s! -JLNHL Alright NHL you can have it back. Thx everyone! -JLNHL

Would You Rather: Kessel or Ovechkin

2013-02-06T11:05:00.002-05:00

This is the first in a new series of posts titled "Would You Rather," which will take two comparable things (e.g., players, teams, eras, accomplishments, etc) and ask "which would you rather?" The hope is that the two things are comparable enough that there is some disagreement over which is better or preferable.

Which players would you rather have on your team: Phil Kessel or Alex Ovechkin?

There is no question Ovechkin has a much more decorated career. He has more career goals (341) than Kessel has points (333), and has as many Hart trophies (two) as Kessel has All-Star game appearances. But the disparity between the two players is a product of Ovechkin's early-career dominance, something that hasn't been apparent in his game for a few years. In fact, Ovechkin looks like a shell of his former self.

Since the 2011 All-Star Game, when Ovechkin took a little too much delight in Kessel's last overall selection, Kessel has 118 points (50 goals) in 125 games; Ovechkin has 104 points (53 goals) in 116 games.

The career trend doesn't favour Ovechkin either; his yearly points total has declined each year since 2007-08, bottoming out at 65 last season, and he hasn't broken 40 goals since 2009-10, although he narrowly missed last season, scoring 38.

But despite a rapid decline, Ovechkin is still a fearsome goal-scorer. He has netted 72 the last two years, the sixth highest total in the NHL. And in reality, he has had only one "bad" year, that being last season, and he still almost hit 40 goals and ended up with over 60 points. That's really good for someone's worst season. But because of his contract, being a fearsome goal-scorer isn't enough; Ovechkin needs to be one of the absolute best players in the NHL to justify his burdensome salary.

Ovechkin has eight years remaining on a contract that pays him over $9.5 million a season, which is easily the largest cap hit in the entire league. It made sense to give Ovechkin that type of money when he was scoring 50+ goals a season and regularly breaking 100 points, but he's no longer the dominant player of yesteryear. And at 27, it's likely the best days are behind him. Wingers routinely peak in their mid-20s, and while they don't begin to decline until their late-20s, early-30s, it's not likely Ovechkin will get close to 60 goals again.

In comparison, Kessel is almost two years younger than Ovechkin and has a much more team-friendly contract at $5.4 million a season. The problem is that Kessel becomes an unrestricted free agent after next season and is in line for a pay raise (perhaps in the $7-8 million range). That raise will still be lower than Ovechkin's cap hit, however, and the term on the open market can only be a maximum of seven years (eight if he re-signs with Toronto), meaning both deals would end after the 2020-21 season. The crucial difference is that Kessel's deal would finish after his 33-year-old season, whereas Ovechkin's finishes after his 35-year-old season.

Essentially, the difference between the two contracts would be two extra prime years for Kessel and two extra decline years for Ovechkin. Therefore, unless Kessel's 82-point season was an outlier rather than the beginning of things to come, it is more likely that Kessel, not Ovechkin, maintains a high level of production and would do so for less money over the course of his next contract.

Even the normal knock against Kessel—he is a one-dimensional player who couldn't find the defensive zone if Randy Carlyle drew him a map—isn't a major failing compared to Ovechkin. The Russian winger has heard the same criticisms lobbied against himself, which may be one of the reasons why he recently lent an encouraging word to Kessel. In addition, Ovechkin has been labelled a coach-killer, with the ouster of Bruce Boudreau and Dale Hunter being the prime examples (and you might have to add Adam Oates to that list if the Capitals don't turn their season around).

Both players have started slowly this season. Ovechkin only has five points in 10 games (two goals) and Kessel has no goals and six assists in 10 games. But that doesn't mean they have lost the ability to score. Both are among the league leaders in shots on net, so they are still generating chances, which is why we shouldn't worry too much about their early slumps. If the two snipers can score at their career average rate from here on out, both should end the season with at least 17 goals (which would equate to a 30-goal season over a normal 82-game schedule).

The main difference between the two players at this point in their careers is physicality. Ovechkin is routinely among the league leaders in hits, whereas Kessel might fluke his way into 10 hits a year, most likely because the scorekeeper mistook him for someone else. This adds an extra element to Ovechkin's game, but could also make him more susceptible to injuries as he ages. However, Ovechkin has shown a remarkable ability to avoid the injury bug so far in his career, playing in at least 78 games every season. Kessel hasn't been able to suit up for quite as many games, but has still played in at least 70 games every season.

A few years ago there would be no debate between Kessel and Ovechkin. The clear answer was Ovechkin. But now, with the Great 8's declining stats and large contract, the choice is not so clear.

So what do you think? Starting today, would you rather have Ovechkin or Kessel on your team? Feel free to debate your choice in the comments section.

Who would you rather have on your team?

Top 100 Sports Blogs to Follow in 2013

2013-01-30T15:28:00.000-05:00

I am happy to announce that Five Minutes For Fighting has been fortunate enough to be named as one of the Top 100 Sports Blogs to Follow in 2013. I slotted in at 71, which was bested by a Habs blog at 68... not that I'm bitter about that or anything.

Thanks to everyone who has read, shared, and/or commented on the blog. I'm very appreciative of all the support and hope to continue writing things you all find interesting (more Mighty Ducks columns, anyone?)

The infographic was created by Mark Wood and can been seen in its entirety after the jump.

An infographic by the team at CouponAudit

Dion Phaneuf Doesn't Suck

2013-01-28T16:05:00.000-05:00

An ugly 5-2 drubbing at the hands of a Stanley Cup contender, on the heels of a painful 7-4 loss to the Islanders, and Leafs Nation is out for blood.

Captain Dion Phaneuf is taking the brunt of the criticism after posting a minus-7 over the two games. The Fan 590 didn't take long to incite a reaction from steaming fans, asking whether the captain was a buy-out candidate.

We're taking your #MapleLeafs calls right now on #SN590! Do you think Phaneuf is a buy-out target? Call 416-870-0590, 1-888-666-0590 or *590
— SN 590 The FAN (@FAN590) January 27, 2013

The question doesn't deserve even a moment's thought. Phaneuf is by far the Leafs' best defenceman despite what his plus/minus rating says.

The problem with judging Phaneuf's two-game performance based on his minus-7 is that plus/minus is a flawed statistic that doesn't tell us much about a player's teammates, his competition, and the situations in which his coach deploys him.

Randy Carlyle is playing Phaneuf close to 28 minutes a night, which is second in the league only to Drew Doughty. Phaneuf is playing those minutes with Mike Kostka, a career AHLer who Carlyle has somehow concluded is a top-pairing defenceman. Kostka is a great story, never giving up on his NHL dreams and finally being rewarded at age 27, but he is not a top-pairing defenceman. So Phaneuf is playing huge minutes with a suspect defence partner, and Carlyle is playing him in a shutdown role against the opposition's best players each night. Phaneuf isn't given much help either; only Carl Gunnarsson has started a larger percentage of his shifts in the defensive zone.

Over at the Leafs Nation, Cam Charron notes that Phaneuf's play is similar to that of last year, despite increasingly difficult usage by his coach. He also argues that Phaneuf's ugly minus-8 on the year can be partially attributed to some terrible puck luck. Toronto's on-ice shooting percentage and team save percentage are well below average when Phaneuf is on the ice, something that is likely to progress closer to the mean over a larger sample. In sum, Cam says the Leafs' problem is having "too few defencemen like Dion Phaneuf, not too many."

This is undoubtedly true.

Last season Phaneuf finished with 44 points, good enough for 12th highest among defencemen. However, Phaneuf was used in radically different situations than the vast majority of the other high-scoring defencemen. According to Behind the Net, among the top 15 defencemen in scoring, only two faced tougher competition than Phaneuf—Shea Weber and Ryan Suter—and only four started a larger percentage of shifts in the defensive zone—Weber, Suter, Zdeno Chara and Kevin Bieksa. In addition, Phaneuf played more minutes than all but eight defencemen last year, and logged the fifth most ice time on the penalty kill among defencemen in the top 15 in scoring.

Unlike many point producers, Phaneuf played in every situation for the Leafs last year. And contrary to the angry reactions of Leafs fans over the weekend, he did it as well as some other No. 1 defencemen.

Note: Here is a quick explanation of some of these advanced stats. Corsi is essentially shot differential (a positive number means a team outshoots its opposition when a player is on the ice) and Corsi relative, as I've used below, is a measure of a player's Corsi rating relative to the rest of his team (so does a team that generally outshoots the competition do so more when a player is on the ice, or alternatively, does a team that is generally outshot by the competition do so less when a player is on the ice).

Player A: Quality of Comp: 1.049, Off. Zone Start%: 50%, Corsi Relative: 3.3
Player B: Quality of Comp: 1.099, Off. Zone Start%: 49.8%, Corsi Relative: 1.7

Player A is Dion Phaneuf. Player B is Brent Seabrook.

Both performed very similar in almost identical roles for their respective teams last year, but Phaneuf finished with 10 more points—likely because of the extra minute of power play time he saw a game—while Seabrook was a plus-21 compared to Phaneuf's minus-10. This discrepancy is not because of wildly different defensive abilities, however. It is likely attributable to the Blackhawks being vastly superior to the Leafs. Seabrook has the luxury of playing alongside Duncan Keith every night, in addition to elite forwards like Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Marian Hossa, and Patrick Sharp, not to mention Dave Bolland, a worthy Selke Trophy candidate himself.

Brent Seabrook is a No. 1 defenceman and so is Dion Phaneuf.

The problem in Toronto is that Phaneuf is being relied upon too heavily by Carlyle and doesn't have enough support. Phaneuf played well last season with the steady, reliable Gunnarsson, but is now expected to perform as well with a vastly inferior partner in Kostka.

Furthermore, the Leafs do not have enough quality defencemen to utilize Phaneuf's minutes effectively. He played more minutes on both the power play and the penalty kill than any Leaf did last season, and is well on his way to doing so again this year. That isn't necessarily the norm for top-pairing defencemen. For example, Drew Doughty played top minutes in a shutdown role for the Kings last year, but Darryl Sutter used Willie Mitchell and Matt Greene as the primary penalty kill tandem, which allowed Doughty to spend more time on the power play and made him more effective at even strength.

Phaneuf is relied upon more heavily than Doughty, who is an unquestioned No. 1 defenceman, and produced a better Corsi relative (3.3 vs 1.5) under tougher usage.

But Phaneuf still receives a great deal of criticism, much of which stems from his inability to fit people's perception of a No. 1 defenceman. Many assume that a No. 1 defenceman is supposed to be like Chara or Weber, two players who are not only No. 1 defencemen, but are "No. 1 defecemen", the proverbial player who logs 30 minutes a night, doesn't tire, plays a shutdown role, throws thunderous checks, and scores points for good measure. It doesn't matter who you play that defenceman with—Weber is currently turning Roman Josi into a top-pairing defenceman—or who you play them against. They are going to look like a Norris Trophy winner on a nightly basis. Phaneuf is not that player. That player is exceedingly rare, and just because Phaneuf is not that player doesn't mean he isn't a quality defenceman.

However, Phaneuf does provide the Leafs with something many teams lack. In most cases, teams have top-pairing defencemen who are incredible shutdown players (e.g., Dan Girardi and Ryan McDonagh in New York) or great offensive stars (e.g., Brian Campbell in Florida or Erik Karlsson in Ottawa). To have a player that does both effectively isn't common. Less than 20 defenceman cracked 40 points last season, and very few did so in shutdown roles. Phaneuf was one of them.

That does not mean Phaneuf is without his flaws. Although he has developed into a much better defenceman than he was in Calgary, he can still be prone to poor positioning and sometimes gives the puck away too easily (although he gave the puck away at a rate similar to Chara last season).

For the Leafs to improve defensively, the solution isn't to rid themselves of Phaneuf, it is to help him.

Long term, the best solution would be to find a quality, shutdown defenceman in the mould of Rob Scuderi or Willie Mitchell to help ease the defensive burden shouldered by Phaneuf. Theoretically, that should have been Mike Komisarek, but that signing stunk when Brian Burke failed to realize Milan Lucic punched the talent out of the Montreal export.

There are also solutions in the short term that don't require trading assets to bring in help from outside the organization. First, the Kostka top-pairing experiment needs to end. Placing Phaneuf back with Gunnarsson, which would allow him to play on his natural side, will go a long way to shoring up some of the team's defensive shortcomings. The two were solid together last year and it was somewhat puzzling when Carlyle broke them up to start this season.

Secondly, Carlyle needs to limit Phaneuf's minutes. Playing him over 30 minutes in tough situations is only going to burn him out over a shortened season. Last year Phaneuf, along with the rest of the team, faded down the stretch. With a compact schedule and more back-to-back games, playing him in a similar manner will only deteriorate his play faster. Weber only surpassed 30 minutes twice last season and he didn't even play as many minutes as Phaneuf did on Saturday (32:38) in an overtime playoff game against Phoenix.

Finally, in addition to limiting Phaneuf's minutes, Carlyle needs to redistribute them. Phaneuf is playing over four minutes on the penalty kill, one more than the next most used defenceman on the team, and is logging over five minutes on the power play. Those special teams minutes need to be cut if Carlyle expects to get anything out of Phaneuf in a shutdown role at even strength.

Dion Phaneuf isn't perfect, but he's much better than he's unfairly portrayed. And he can be a whole lot better if Randy Carlyle accepts that he isn't Shea Weber or Zdeno Chara. Leafs fans will feel a whole lot better if they accept that too.

67 Reasons Why the Leafs Will Win a Stanley Cup before You Die

2013-01-24T16:17:00.000-05:00

Welcome to the world, new baby. Lucky you, you won your first race. And even luckier for you, you have two loving parents, ones that just happen to love the Toronto Maple Leafs. Yes, the team that hasn't won a Stanley Cup in 45 years. Man, news travels fast these days. Well, don't you worry, because any parent who truly loves their child is going to brainwash them into loving the Leafs regardless.

Plus, there are plenty of reasons why the Leafs will win a Stanley Cup in your lifetime. Here, I wrote them down.

1. Canadians now have a life expectancy of 81.23 years. Americans have a life expectancy of 78.11 years.

2. Something is bound to happen in 80 years. Even something as improbable as the Maple Leafs winning a Stanley Cup.

3. Why? Even a blind squirrel finds an acorn once in a while.

4. Sure, MLSE is like a blind squirrel that prefers to build tree condos rather than hunt for acorns, but just by pure, dumb luck an acorn is bound to fall and hit the blind MLSE squirrel on its head.

5. With 30 teams in the league, the odds of winning the Stanley Cup are 1 in 30 or 3.33%. The chances of not winning the Stanley Cup are much better—96.67%. However, the chances of not winning the Stanley Cup 80 years in a row? 6.6%. Admittedly, that's twice as likely as it is for the Leafs to win the Cup in any one year but...

6. That means there's a 93.4% chance that the Leafs will win at least one Stanley Cup in the next 80 years. Positives!

7. Combined with the Leafs' current 45-year Cup drought, the chances of the Leafs going another 80 years without a Stanley Cup is astonishingly small—only 0.75%.

8. As far as we know, the laws of mathematics still apply to the Maple Leafs... probably.

9. You are more likely to die by suicide (lifetime odds are 1-in-121, or 0.82%) than you are to go an entire life without seeing the Leafs win a cup.

10. If in 80 years you haven't seen the Leafs win the Stanley Cup you may as well tell the nurse to pull the plug.

11. If you read that and thought, "Math is for nerds!" here's a different way of looking at the Leafs' chances: If Screech from Saved by the Bell has a sextape, that means somebody slept with the biggest dork in television history... If Screech can get laid, the Leafs can win the cup.

12. For the atheists: There is no Hell, and therefore, nothing that will have to improbably freeze over before the Maple Leafs win a cup.

13. It is really cold in Toronto right now, however. So cold, in fact, that Hell may very well be frozen over, meaning a Stanley Cup is on its way. Toronto has a well-earned reputation as being Sports Hell, according to fans, so don't bet against it.

14. For the religious: God is merciful.

15. Although appealing to the Justin Bieber market by signing a goalie that the teen sensation could score on sounded like a good idea at the time, it won't be a priority going forward.

16. The Leafs are the most profitable team in the league by a wide margin. Someday a Leafs GM will realize the NHL is not a morality contest and will use that money as a competitive advantage.

17. According to New York Yankees fans, money does not buy happiness, but it sure does buy a lot of championships! Note: New York Yankees fans are incapable of feeling happiness because they do not have souls.

18. The Boston Red Sox won two World Series titles after being largely terrible for 80 years and they were cursed.

19. The Maple Leafs are not cursed.

20. The Chicago Cubs have not won a World Series in over 100 years, but they are cursed and incompetent.

21. The Maple Leafs are only incompetent.

22. Being incompetent is not a barrier to success. For example: George W. Bush, the guy who created the Pet Rock, Honey Boo Boo's Mom, Donald Trump.

23. If all these lockouts are any indication, NHL owners are so greedy that they will likely resort to selling the Stanley Cup at some point.

24. If the Maple Leafs can't win a Stanley Cup when they just have to outbid the New York Rangers, Montreal Canadiens, and a bunch of poor teams, you might as well change loyalties right now.

25. With the growing rate of concussions, in 50 years the league will be nothing more than an annual NHL 94 tournament.

26. Luckily for Leafs fans, Down Goes Brown didn't realize EA Sports kept updating the game, so it's the only version he's ever played, meaning the Leafs should have a pretty good shot.

27. Plus, the upcoming concussion endemic will bypass the Maple Leafs completely.

28. Why? Because even after major hits, Leafs players have shown an uncanny ability to avoid concussions. Sure, they suffer mysterious concussion-like symptoms attributed to neck injuries, but they don't suffer concussions. No sir, they do not.

"Just wait until he fills out his frame," a blind scout said.

29. The Maple Leafs will never again look this bad.

30. When MLSE realizes that a fan paid $5300 for a toilet from the team's old dressing room at Maple Leaf Gardens, they will stop at nothing to win a Stanley Cup. Not to reward the fan's crazed loyalty, but to sell off everything imaginable to a bunch of other suckers who will pay twice as much for a used bar of soap from a Stanley Cup run.

31. Once increased revenue sharing kicks in the Leafs will be paying 80% of the league's payroll anyways, so they will contribute to many Stanley Cup winners. That counts for something, right?

32. The Tyler Seguin-Dougie Hamilton-Tuukka Rask trifecta of awesomeness in Boston will teach future Leafs GMs that trading top draft picks and top prospects is a dumb, dumb idea.

33. Or someone will realize the simplest solution to the Leafs' problems is just calling the phone company and getting Peter Chiarelli's number blocked.

34. Then, even if the Leafs are bad, they will at least have their first-round picks. And if the Leafs are bad long enough (which probably is the least unlikely thing I have written), they will eventually have so many good players they will have to be good.

35. Plus, with draft picks to actually use the Leafs will have no choice but to pour money into scouting and developing, which will improve their chances considerably.

36. The Leafs will never again foolishly trade two first-round picks on the same day.

37. The world is just: Therefore, the Maple Leafs will win a Cup, to the delight of everyone who loves them.

38. The world is unjust: Therefore, the Maple Leafs will win a Cup, to the outrage of everyone who hates them.

39. Christ will rise again, apparently within the next few decades according to this nut, meaning an elite starting goalie will finally be on the free agent market. When religious people say "Jesus saves" they are talking about his goaltending ability, right?

40. Every sports movie ever has shown the good guys win, despite usually starting out terrible. If the scrubs from Mighty Ducks can win the championship against the Hawks, under the guidance of the worst movie coach in history no less, then surely the Maple Leafs can win the Stanley Cup.

Tim Connolly: RoboCentre

41. In the future, sports medicine will become so good that players will basically become robots. The Maple Leafs will be on the cutting edge since they have the perfect candidate for risky human-robot transmutations: Tim Connolly. Hey, he's gone under the knife so many times to get fixed up already, he'll be fine getting a pair of robot legs if that's what it takes to make it back to the NHL.

42. Since Brian Burke is no longer GM, attributes other than truculence and an American passport will once again be considered by Leafs scouts.

43. Since Cliff Fletcher invented a time machine, there is the potential to rectify countless management blunders. Unless, of course, MLSE catches wind of the plan and just wants to bring back a sports almanac to win money gambling.

44. As you have undoubtedly already heard, the Leafs were only able to win the Stanley Cup in a 6-team league. If the NHL's financial situation is as dire as owners suggested during the lockout, it won't be long before the Leafs are playing in a 6-team league once again.

45. The last seven years have probably been the worst stretch in team history (the 80s were terrible, but the Leafs somehow made the playoffs despite never finishing with a winning record). There is nowhere to go but up.

46. Sure, the same is true when you're buried, but with all the talk of a zombie apocalypse that might be the better side of the ground to start.

47. Everything in sports is cyclic. There are ups and downs. Well, Toronto as a whole, not just the Leafs, have been on one of the most brutal, city-wide downturns in sports history. Clearly, that means a Boston-like wave of championships is in the future. Even for TFC (but not really, though, they're terrible).

48. With the Hockey Hall of Fame located in Toronto, it is only a matter of time before the Leafs hire a burglar to steal the trophy. I vote this guy.

49. The Stanley Cup is also brazen enough to walk around all summer long with only two bodyguards. That's a prime kidnapping opportunity if I ever heard of one.

50. Wait, there's an easier way to take the Stanley Cup. No, not win it fairly (why would I make this list if that was realistic). Everyone has their price, so MLSE can just pay Philip Pritchard to turn heel and join MLSE.

51. The scenario: Bettman is walking onto the ice after the Stanley Cup Final and Pritchard is following with the Stanley Cup. But instead of putting it down, he turns around and clocks Bettman over the head with the Cup. Dave Nonis comes out and spray paints MLSE on the Cup and there is a New World Order in the NHL.

52. All good things must come to an end. So all the Schadenfreude that Leafs haters have been feeling watching continual Leafs failure will end in a blaze of Stanley Cup glory.

53. Dave Nonis has sent in a lot of entries to "Win a Day with the Stanley Cup."

54. The best scientists in the world are working hard to cure Blue and White disease.

55. The best scientists are also working on a way to re-animate the 1932 Toronto Maple Leafs.

56. I called Miss Cleo and her tarot cards revealed a Stanley Cup was in my future!

57. Psychics are never wrong about anything. Well, unless you count Psychic Nikki, who predicted a Leafs Stanley Cup in 2009, or the guy who predicted another Leafs Stanley Cup in 2012.

58. After hearing one of his helpers told a 3-year-old the Leafs suck, the real Santa will make sure there is a belated present this year for Leafs fans because he isn't a monster.

59. Plus, Leafs fans have been given coal for too long. How about a shiny, new Nathan MacKinnon to make up for it? Maybe a Seth Jones? I hope you left lots of milk and cookies for Santa.

60. Rumour has it Alex Anthopolous is next in line for the GM duties.

61. With a lengthy lockout sapping money from the league, the obvious remedy is a Stanley Cup run in Toronto. Fans will buy merchandise faster than you can say HRR. Unfortunately, the team stinks, so some careful rigging will be required. Oh, get off your high horse, Leafs fans. You know you'd gladly accept a Stanley Cup even if it was because a mysterious strain of Ebola ripped through the rest of the league.

62. The Love Guru was not a movie, it was a prophecy.

63. The Flames are always in the market for a good lopsided trade. When the phone company is blocking Peter Chiarelli's number, Dave Nonis can ask to make all calls route through the Flames front office first.

64. When the condo bubble bursts in Toronto, MLSE will remember it owns a hockey team. Raptors fans will be happy to know MLSE will then discover that Bryan Colangelo has been dead for four years and everything will suddenly make much more sense.

65. Brian Burke will come back as the GM of a rival team and offer three first-round picks for Phil Kessel, just to outdo himself.

66. Karma for the 100 millionth person who made the same "1967" joke.

67. Good things come to those who wait.

Winter's Warning

2013-01-22T12:21:00.000-05:00

This is a really cool piece of art titled Winter's Warning, created by Ian Turner, a Toronto-based freelance illustrator/artist who was kind enough to allow me to share his work.

The original version can be found on his Tumblr account. There is a lot of other neat and interesting art on his website, so you should totally check it out if you liked Winter's Warning.

Randy Carlyle's Map of the Defensive Zone

2013-01-19T10:10:00.000-05:00

One of Randy Carlyle's major challenges as the Leafs' head coach will be implementing a defensive scheme that somehow cuts down on the massive goals-against totals that have doomed the Leafs for years.

He can start by actually teaching the team about defence, something former coach Ron Wilson felt was unnecessary, apparently. In fact, Wilson didn't teach the Leafs anything about the defensive zone when he was in Toronto, not even where in the rink it was located. Poor Cody Franson was so confused he thought it was in the press box.

To combat the utter ignorance on his roster, Carlyle drew up a map of the defensive zone to help teach the Leafs how to play defence. It wasn't supposed to be leaked to the public, but I found a crumpled up copy in a trash bin after Leafs practice on Thursday. Perhaps it was tossed aside by a certain bald-headed, injury-prone centre on his way down to the minors.

Special thanks to Down Goes Brown for the inspiration for the piece and my friend, Geoff, for his input.

2013 Fantasy Hockey Strategy Guide

2013-01-17T09:28:00.000-05:00

Make sure you know which players are now crazy.

There are plenty of ways to make money on the internet. You can try your hand gambling by playing online poker; you could sell your vintage NHL jersey collection to the hipsters of the world on eBay; or you can dominate your friends in fantasy hockey. Yahoo! has even made it possible for people without friends to win money playing fantasy hockey.

But you can't just waltz into the online arena and expect to win money without a plan. You'll be eaten alive like the fresh fish you are.

Fret not, for I am here to help with a trusty battle guide to help you navigate the treacherous waters of draft day and beyond.

Before the Draft

Make a list of sleepers

Look around and determine which players are poised for a big increase in points. That could be because they are coming off an injury-plagued down year, but were previously a consistent 70-point threat or because they struggled in their second year but are still a promising youngster who looked dominant as a rookie. These players will be ranked far lower than they will be by season's end (if everything goes right).

Other times a player can be poised for a big uptick in points because of a trade to a new team (think Jordan Staal moving to Carolina and getting a bigger offensive role) or a trade of a teammate to a new team, which may open up an expanded role for the sleeper (think whoever gets to replace Jaromir Jagr on Claude Giroux's wing).

Always lean towards players that are going to get ample power play time and those that are playing with other high-scoring teammates.

If you are having trouble picking your own sleepers, don't worry, I have already done the leg work for you and created my own list of fantasy hockey sleepers.

Check for injuries/retirements

While you don't need to worry too much about minor injuries (e.g., a bruised foot), you do need to be aware of serious injuries that could keep a player out long term. Often times these injuries will be reflected in a player's ranking (e.g., Ryan Kesler, who Yahoo! ranks 140th out of 150 players due to off-season shoulder and wrist surgeries), but sometimes injuries happen too quickly for rankings to adequately reflect the news. If you're determined to draft Sidney Crosby first overall you better be damn sure he didn't suffer a concussion earlier in the morning.

Likewise, you better keep an eye on retirements and hold outs, which could make you the punch line of a joke if you aren't careful. Don't be the guy drafting Tim Thomas. Know your whack-jobs.

Positional scarcity

Centres are the most abundant in the league. Seven of the top 10 scorers last season were centres (or at least centre-eligible) and more centres broke 70 points than both right and left wingers combined. Plus, many good point-producing centres are still available late in the draft, meaning that unless you have the chance to take one of the elite centres (e.g., Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Steven Stamkos), you are better off taking a winger early.

Point-producing defencemen are even harder to find than a good winger. Last year only Erik Karlsson surpassed 65 points, and only four others broke 50 points. In fact, the 65-point plateau has only been surpassed 14 times by a defenceman over the last seven years, while the same mark has been equalled or bettered by 331 forwards. Each year, on average, there are approximately 50 forwards that score 65 or more points compared to only two defencemen. That scarcity may lead you to believe drafting a defenceman quick is essential, but in reality, high-scoring defencemen are so rare that you're better off taking a bunch of forwards before even thinking about a defenceman.

Goalies

If your league only requires one goalie you're in luck (but also probably in a two-bit league), because 16 goalies who played more than 42 games last year produced an above-average save percentage and 11 won more than 30 games. Accordingly, you can afford to wait until the later rounds to take a goalie because there will still be quality starting netminders late (ones that wouldn't even be considered sleepers).

If you're in a two-goalie league, however, you might want to invest in a goalie early. With 30 spots to fill league-wide and goaltending worth multiple categories (wins, GAA, SV%, SO at a minimum), it's imperative you get a good goalie before you're left scrounging to plug in Sergei Bobrovsky and Ondrej Pavelec. In a standard 12-team league, you should probably spend two of your first five picks on goalies.

Thankfully, every year features certain goalies who come out of nowhere and set the league on fire. Last year it was Mike Smith and Brian Elliott, two goalies who weren't even likely to have been picked in fantasy drafts. So although you really should get at least one high-quality goalie early in the draft, there are elite talents waiting to be plundered in the later rounds—it's just that unless you're Rain Man you won't be able to identify them prior to the season.

Mock draft

Practice your draft strategy to get a feel of where you want to take players and to find out where sleepers might end up being taken. Everyone has sleepers, so in many cases the super secret sleeper you have lined up will go much earlier than he is ranked.

Do multiple mock drafts from different spots to get a feel of how you might draft differently depending on where your draft pick lies.

Be careful not to take the mock drafts as gospel, however. The knowledge and commitment level of participants differs wildly and your mock draft results are likely to vary from your actual results, sometimes considerably depending on who you are playing with.

Recognize who your opponents are

One of the most important things is to know who you're up against. You don't need to know that your friend Fred was famous for consistently peeing himself in the second grade, but you do need to know what team Fred likes. If Fred likes the Philadelphia Flyers, you can be sure his heart will influence some of his picks and some players that you could normally get later in the draft (like, say, Jakub Voracek) might go earlier than most rankings suggested.

If you're in a league full of Freds (people who like the Flyers, not those who pee their pants, although I'm not sure those two categories are mutually exclusive) you can bet it will be a whole lot harder to get Flyers players. A potential benefit might be that this blind homerism may make your opponents less apt to take secondary players (not the stars, everyone knows they're good) of teams they hate, mainly on principle. Sure, that might not be smart, but we're talking about Flyers fans here.

Don't draft BizNasty just so you can tweet him

That joke is so old it was already retired with five grandchildren by the time it left your mouth.

After the Draft

Be active on the waiver wire

As I said under the goalie tips, there will be plenty of good players who weren't originally drafted and who are just sitting on the waiver wire, waiting for a nice, caring home.

Last year, Ray Whitney was selected in only 7% of drafts, yet finished 12th in league scoring with 77 points. So for people quick enough, there was an elite fantasy talent on the waiver wire and it didn't cost them anything.

Don't get trigger happy

If your first-round pick is taking his sweet time to start the season don't panic trade him at the first chance you get, because you'll probably regret it by season's end.

Do, however, offer up panic trades to other owners who might be getting antsy to move a slow-starting all-star. If you've got a couple of players who have started out hot you might be able to package them for a more established player who hasn't yet performed up to his name.

Of course, these trade offers will get the door slammed in your face plenty of times (and might earn you a reputation as a "trade spammer"), but it only takes one jittery owner to make a deal. These trade offers aren't without risk, however. It could be that the players you're trading never cool down like you might have hoped, and your name-brand superstar might never get it going, leaving you on the wrong side of a lopsided trade.

Have fun

If you aren't having fun, you are going to lose interest, which is an easy way to finish in last place, lose your entry fee, and find your telephone silent when invites are going around next year.

Plus, if you aren't having fun there are better, less nerdy things to do with your time than play fantasy sports.

Have any rules you live by? Some wacky theories (e.g., take all the goaliezzzz!!1!)? Share them in the comments.

Why the Leafs Need to Send Morgan Rielly Back to Junior

2013-01-14T11:41:00.000-05:00

Four years ago the Leafs rushed an 18-year-old Luke Schenn to the NHL, and it looks like the team is prepared to do the same with Morgan Rielly.

“I’m gonna pick the best players,” Randy Carlyle told the Toronto Star. “If (Rielly) is among the best, I’ll have no qualms picking him because he’s 18.”

Management has echoed the coach's philosophy.

“If Morgan Rielly can help our team win, I really don’t care that he’s only 18,” Dave Nonis told the National Post. "If he’s ready, he’ll stick around."

The hope would be that Rielly could help upgrade the Leafs' blueline, one which has been near the bottom of the league for years. He is a slick-skating, puck-moving defenceman that could potentially step in and provide a reasonable facsimile of Jake Gardiner, who is currently out with a concussion.

The Leafs can give Rielly a five-game try-out (a sixth game automatically burns a year on his contract), but allowing him to make the Leafs this season, regardless of how NHL-ready he may appear, would be a monumental failure.

An entry-level contract is one of the most valuable assets in the NHL. Having a cap hit so low, with the potential to provide production that greatly exceeds the cost for three years, gives tremendous flexibility to maximize talent on the rest of the roster. To waste a full year of an entry-level contract on a lockout-shortened season, one in which the Leafs are already well situated under the cap, is short-sighted and misguided.

Having Rielly on the team this year fails to maximize his ELC. Normally, if a player doesn't spend any time in the AHL, he can play 246 regular season games on an ELC. With Rielly, however, the maximum amount of games the Leafs could get out of his deal is only 212. If Rielly is a truly special player, why flush away an extra 40+ games of cheap production? It makes no sense.

Compounding the imprudence of wasting a year of an ELC on a shortened season is Rielly's age. Rielly will not turn 19 until March. In the history of the NHL, only 27 defenceman played more than 10 games in the NHL during their 18-year-old season (meaning they were 18 on February 1; players like Cam Fowler and Luke Schenn were rookies in their 19-year-old season).

To make matters worse, Rielly is vastly different than most of those precocious defencemen: He missed almost all of his draft year with a torn ACL (which, despite advances in medicine, is still a very serious injury).

The only player to play as few games as Rielly did during his draft year and then play in the NHL as an 18-year-old was Petr Svoboda, who played in 18 Czech league games and another 12 internationally in 1983-84.

It is not only rare to have a player as young as Rielly make the NHL, but it is almost unprecedented to have one who played in so few games during his draft year. This concern is somewhat mitigated by the NHL's late start to the season, which has provided Rielly with an extra 65 games of junior hockey (plus those in the World Junior Hockey Championship), giving him 127 career WHL games. But that means Rielly has just now, one year after being drafted, accumulated the same amount of experience as most draftees had back in June.

Rielly has had a nice junior season so far; he was second on the Moose Jaw Warriors in points (28) before leaving to play in the World Junior Hockey Championship, and he has also played in the Subway Super Series. But he hasn't been so utterly dominant that a smooth transition to the NHL is assured. In fact, even though he was selected to Team Canada's world junior roster, he didn't play a large role on the team (something not totally shocking considering he was an 18-year-old among mostly 19-year-olds on the blueline). If he was truly knocking on the NHL's door, he would have played a greater role on the team.

Besides, he isn't at a level in which going back to junior is detrimental. There is still plenty Rielly can learn in Moose Jaw, away from the glaring lights of Toronto where every tiny mistake will be magnified and discussed ad nauseum. Like many young defenceman, he could still use work in his own defensive zone and could benefit from playing major minutes in all situations, which he would be unlikely to do in the NHL. He's also a leader for Moose Jaw, so spending more time in junior can help develop a skill that has been severely lacking on the Maple Leafs since Mats Sundin departed.

Another factor working against Rielly, a left-handed shot, is Toronto's defensive depth. There are five left-handed shots ahead of Rielly on the roster: Dion Phaneuf, Carl Gunnarsson, Jake Gardiner, John-Michael Liles, and Paul Ranger (although he is only signed to an AHL deal). The right-handed shots are much weaker: Cody Franson, Mike Komisarek, Korbinian Holzer, and Mike Kostka. For Moose Jaw, Rielly has played on both the left and right side, so unless Carlyle moved a veteran to their off-wing, his most likely shot at making the team would be on the right side. But putting him in a position to enter the NHL with as little experience as he has, on his off-wing, isn't putting him in an ideal situation to succeed. And for a rebuilding team like Toronto, doing anything that can negatively affect the development of a blue chip prospect for a short-term boost is foolish.

For Leafs fans, the desire to see Rielly make the team is based on excitement. It's no fun waiting around for prospects develop. The Leafs spent a high draft pick on him and fans want to see how he'll do in the NHL now. As Michael Langlois says, "It’s been a while since we have been this excited about a draft pick. As a result, we can’t wait to unwrap the new present."

But remember, not too long ago Luke Schenn was an exciting 18-year-old rookie, and now, four years later, he's off the team after what was an astonishingly abysmal season. The new shine fades quickly on rushed prospects.

For the Leafs, the pressure to see Rielly in action now shouldn't even be a factor. Management should be thinking about what's best for Rielly, and consequently the team, long-term. Rielly may help the team now, but in all likelihood, unless he's some sort of transcendental player (which he has not made apparent), he will help the team more in the future if he goes back to junior now.

For the record, during the pre-season last year I was against Jake Gardiner making the Leafs and look how well that turned out. That said, Gardiner was in a much different position than Rielly. He was older and had already completed three years of college hockey, which is comprised of much more physically mature players than in junior. Gardiner didn't take as direct a route to the NHL that Rielly would be taking. Plus, Gardiner wasn't injured for almost all of the previous year.

Every rational argument points to keeping Rielly in junior at this age. If Carlyle wants to keep Rielly after training camp Nonis needs to step in and take the option away from him, sending the talented rearguard back to junior where he belongs. It might not do him any favours with his coach, but it is the best thing for the team long-term.