Five Minutes For Fighting

AHL's best player has no business in NHL

2015-11-23T21:37:00.000-05:00

Leafs prospect William Nylander is dominating the AHL despite being young enough to pass for a high school senior.

There are compelling reasons to call him up to the NHL.

The Leafs are bad and have scored the 6th fewest goals in the league.
Nylander leads the AHL in scoring with 23 points in 17 games.
It's his No. 1 goal and he doesn't seem to have trouble with goals.

But calling up Nylander isn't best for the Leafs long-term.

Why?

If Nylander stays in the AHL all season his entry-level contract won't kick in until next year. That's important because the Leafs are going nowhere this year, even with Nylander. Calling him up essentially wastes one of the three years Nylander is guaranteed to have a cheap contract.

If the Leafs dream of snatching one of this summer's premier free agents it's going to cost them big. At least $12 million a year for Steven Stamkos big. Nylander knocking on Brendan Shanahan's door for a new contract one year earlier doesn't make filling out the rest of the roster easy.

Future stock photo of Steven Stamkos hitting free agency.

Nylander also takes a roster spot from a veteran. Not that the Leafs need to respect the vets, but one of the major priorities this season was to get decent production out of the cheap off-seasons signings and spin those vets into picks at the deadline. Those vets need big minutes, especially on the power play, to get enough points to look attractive to other teams.

But even if the Leafs deal off veterans at the deadline and have a roster spot for Nylander in March he should still finish the year with the Marlies. This is his first full professional season as a centre and although he can clearly handle the duties offensively, it's worth giving him more time to master his defensive responsibilities

The Leafs have rushed prospects to the NHL with disastrous results for years. Nylander may be different, but he should wait until next year to prove it.

Leafs Trade Kessel in Disappointing Deal

2015-07-01T18:48:00.000-04:00

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The Maple Leafs kicked off their rebuild by trading star winger Phil Kessel to the Pittsburgh Penguins for a package of prospects and picks, finally ending the contentious Phil Kessel era in Toronto.

In exchange for Kessel, who goes to Pittsburgh along with Tyler Biggs, Tim Erixon, and a 2016 2nd round pick, the Leafs received Kasperi Kapanen (2014 1st round pick), Scott Harrington (2011 2nd round pick), veteran Nick Spaling, and a 2016 1st round pick and 3rd round pick. The Leafs also agreed to pick up 15% of Kessel's salary, totalling $1.2 million a season.

It's an underwhelming return for a player who has scored more points than only five players since 2011. An optimist might look at the trade as bringing in two 1st round picks (2016 and Kapanen), a 2nd round pick (Harrington), and a 3rd round pick, but none of the pieces are elite (and the 2016 1st rounder is lottery protected so it's going to be in the latter half of the draft). It's hard not to feel disappointed.

In reality, the Leafs were never going to hit a grand slam home run trading Kessel. The Blue Jackets couldn't when they traded Rick Nash, and he didn't undergo the beating Kessel has taken from the Toronto media. That's because teams just don't give up young, elite talent. Nashville wasn't giving up someone like Seth Jones and New York wasn't giving up Ryan Strome. And although many understood young NHLers were off the table, high-end NHL-ready prospects might even more valuable as teams have cost-controlled assets that can produce on the cheap. Even if Kessel is a better player —and heading into the decline portion of his career that's not a given for long—having a young player on a cheap contract is crucial in the salary cap era.

Having the Leafs retain salary and fail to receive 2012 8th overall pick Derrick Pouliot is disappointing, but both were deal-breakers for Pittsburgh, and without a real bidding war between teams, it sounds like the Leafs did the best they could. The Leafs were open to taking back bad contracts, and Chris Kunitz and Rob Scuderi certainly qualify in that category, but both had the Leafs on the list of teams they would not accept in a trade.

Perhaps Toronto could have extracted more by waiting out the market and letting other teams get desperate, but they ran the risk of having the few teams with enough cap space move on to other targets and be stuck with Kessel. Of course, for such a productive player that shouldn't be a big issue, but it also means one year closer to Kessel's decline, and although it's possible Kessel could have rebounded under Mike Babcock, it's also entirely possible that with such a sub-par lineup around him the only way Kessel could boost his production was in a run-and-gun style which is definitely not happening.

The Leafs decided, instead, to get it done and move forward with their rebuild.

Kapanen now becomes the Leafs third best prospect behind William Nylander and Mitch Marner. He has top-six potential, although his probable ceiling is more likely that of a second liner. Harrington, who saw 10 games of NHL action last season, should be ready for an NHL job in the fall, although he profiles more as a bottom pairing option on the blueline.

The deal also gives the Leafs cap space going forward, and if this off-season has taught us anything, it's that having cap space is a definite asset. The Blue Jackets and Flames were both able to take advantage of plenty of cap space and acquired Brandon Saad and Dougie Hamilton on the cheap. In the future the Leafs might be in a similar position to take advantage of other team's cap trouble.

It's not the start to the rebuild that many were hoping for, but the Leafs are slowly starting to stockpile a decent prospect cupboard and are giving their scouts more chances to build through the draft. The next few years aren't going to be pretty, but in most years in Toronto it isn't anyways, at least now there's a plan.

Phil Kessel's Trade Value

2015-05-25T09:57:00.000-04:00

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One of the biggest decisions the Maple Leafs must make this off-season is deciding what to do with Phil Kessel.

Although Kessel is a dynamic offensive player, the Leafs have failed to surround him with talent and the team has wasted Kessel's prime years. There are still good years left for Kessel, but with the Leafs embarking on a full-scale rebuild it's likely those years will go to waste in Toronto. And by the time the Leafs start to rise from the bottom of the league, Kessel will be hitting the decline phase of his career. The wisest decision, therefore, would be to deal him this summer.

But what type of return can the Leafs get for Kessel. Luckily for us, a superstar winger with a massive contract was traded within the past few years and can give us a good idea of what Kessel might fetch in a trade. I'm referring, of course, to Rick Nash.

Through their age 27 seasons, which was the age at which Nash was dealt, the two put up remarkably similar numbers.

Name	Age	GP	G/G	A/G	Pts/G
Phil Kessel	27	446	0.41	0.48	0.88
Rick Nash	27	516	0.41	0.40	0.81

And at the time Nash was dealt he was coming off his worst season in five years. He played in all 82 games and managed to score 30 goals, but only finished with 59 points. Similarly, Kessel is coming off his worst season in five years after scoring 25 goals and finishing with 61 points.

Kessel has another seven years on a deal that pays him $8 million a season (or 11.6% of the 2014-15 cap limit). Nash at the time of his trade was owed another six years on a deal that paid him $7.8 million a season (or 12.1% of the 2011-12 cap limit).

The only real difference in their situations is that Nash formally requested a trade out of Columbus, while Kessel has maintained that he wants to remain in Toronto.

As Kessel's situation is almost exactly the same as Nash's when he was dealt, the Leafs can realistically expect to receive a return comparable to what the Blue Jackets received from the Rangers.

Note: The distinction of what line a player was on was determined based on their time on ice during the year before being traded.

Rick Nash, Steve Delisle, conditional 3rd round pick = Brandon Dubinsky (26 year old 3rd line centre), Artem Anisimov (24 year old 4th line centre), Tim Erixon (2009 1st round pick, 23rd overall, Rangers' top defensive prospect), and 1st round pick (19th overall)

Dubinsky had signed a long-term deal with the Rangers and had three years before becoming a UFA. Anisimov was four years away from hitting unrestricted free agency.

The shine has certainly rubbed off of Tim Erixon since the trade, but at the time he was the Rangers' top prospect, even ranked ahead of Chris Kreider in the organization by Hockey Prospectus. Opinions varied about where he stood in the league, however, with Hockey Prospectus ranking him 13th before the 2012-13 season (ahead of players like Morgan Rielly, Jonas Brodin, and Nick Bjugstad) and Hockey's Future ranking him 45th (close to Brendan Gallagher, Tyler Toffoli, and Peter Holland).

At the time Columbus GM Scott Howson was looking for two NHL forwards and considering Nash's hefty cap hit those players needed to have some money on their deals to make a trade work for the Rangers who didn't have much money coming off the books at the end of the 2011-12 season.

The Leafs don't necessarily need NHL players back in a trade for Kessel as they are embarking on the beginning of their rebuild and won't be competitive for a number of years. Additionally, a number of the teams in need of a scoring winger (the Predators and Panthers, for example) have the cap space next season to acquire Kessel without shipping back much, if any, salary. That said, taking back some salary could make a deal easier, although with Kessel the Leafs shouldn't need to take on bad contracts to make it happen.

Some people seem to think that Kessel's trade value cratered after last season and the Leafs should be lucky to get anything for him, but based on what the Blue Jackets got for Nash (two young players, a top prospect, and a 1st round pick), it seems clear that there will be a market for Kessel, flaws and all (remember, Nash had his own flaws). Even after coming off a down season Kessel still ranks sixth over the last four seasons in points with 275.

So who should be in the market for Kessel? We're looking for teams that had trouble scoring last year and have a hole on the wing. Teams that narrowly missed the playoffs or were ousted in the first round are good targets as they should be more motivated to improve this summer. And as Kessel has a big contract it should be teams with cap space, or at least the flexibility to make some trades to free up cap space. In any trade for Kessel the Leafs would most likely be looking for centres or defencemen as those are their biggest areas of weakness, so teams with depth in those areas.

Who does that leave?

Note: Again, the distinction of what line a player was on was determined based on their time on ice during the previous year.

Nashville Predators:
13th in goals scored
Lost in first round to the Chicago Blackhawks
$28.8 million in cap space with 14 players signed

The Predators have had trouble scoring for years, although adding James Neal and promoting Filip Forsberg last year made it much less of a concern compared to years past. But being in a division with the Blackhawks means you need more than just two goal scorers. Adding Kessel would be a valuable weapon.

Potential trade: Ryan Ellis (24 year old 3rd pairing defenceman), 2016 1st round round pick (their 2015 1st round pick was already dealt to Toronto), Kevin Fiala (2014 first round pick, 11th overall, LW, ranked 12th by Hockey's Future)

Minnesota Wild:
14th in goals scored
Lost in second round to the Chicago Blackhawks
$9.3 million in cap space with 15 players signed

The Wild play a strong two-way game and have a good system that should have stacked up well against the Blackhawks, but the ridiculous amounts of talent throughout the Blackhawks lineup made the matchup anything but even. The Wild could use another game breaker.

Potential trade: Charlie Coyle (22 year old 3rd line centre), 1st round pick (20th overall), Alex Tuch (2014 1st round pick, 18th overall, RW, ranked 45th by Hockey's Future)

Winnipeg Jets:
15th in goals scored
Lost in first round to the Anaheim Ducks
$20.7 million in cap space with 16 players signed

The Jets could be even more hard-pressed to score next season after dealing Evander Kane, who for all the drama surrounding him was always able to score goals at a first-line level. Plenty of their young players took a step forward last season and they have plenty of intriguing prospects so trading some for immediate help won't decimate the system.

Potential trade: Ben Chariot (24 year old 3rd pairing defenceman), 1st round pick (17th overall), Josh Morrissey (2013 1st round pick, 13th overall, D, ranked 21st by Hockey's Future)

New York Islanders:
4th in goals scored
Lost in first round to the Washington Capitals
$14.2 million in cap space with 17 players signed

They sure didn't have trouble scoring last season, but the Islanders are at a point in their development cycle where they have to be aggressive in order to take advantage of John Tavares' bargain $5.5 million deal which has three years remaining. They are loaded at centre with Tavares, Brock Nelson, and Ryan Strome, and can afford to raid a deep prospect pool to make a true run for the Stanley Cup.

Potential trade: Calvin de Haan (24 year old 3rd pairing defenceman), 2016 1st round pick (2015 1st round pick traded to Buffalo), Ryan Pulock (2013 1st round pick, 15th overall, D, ranked 39th by Hockey's Future)

Columbus Blue Jackets:
11th in goals scored
Missed playoffs by 10 points
$9.4 million in cap space with 19 players signed

The Blue Jackets found themselves at the bottom of the league for most of last season mainly because of a comical rash of injuries. After getting healthy they made a bit of a run near the end of the season but simply could not overcome the early hole they dug. Kessel would be the Blue Jacket's biggest scoring threat since Rick Nash's departure.

Potential trade: 1st round pick (8th overall) and Sonny Milano (2014 1st round pick, 16th overall, C, ranked 35th by Hockey's Future)

Florida Panthers:
25th in goals scored
Missed playoffs by 8 points
$16.6 million in cap space with 18 players signed

The Panthers took a big step forward last season, in large part thanks to Nick Bjugstad and rookie Aaron Ekblad. They are strong at centre with Bjugstad and Aleksander Barkov, but lack a true scoring threat on the wing as Jonathan Huberdeau has yet to develop into a frontline player. Kessel could give them the scoring punch they lack.

Potential trade: 1st round pick (11th overall) and Mike Matheson (2012 1st round pick, 23rd overall, D, ranked 40th by Hockey's Future)

Maple Leafs Land Mike Babcock

2015-05-20T20:18:00.001-04:00

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The Leafs landed the most impactful free agent of the off-season and it isn't even July 1.

On Wednesday, the Leafs signed Mike Babcock to an 8-year, $50 million deal to become the 30th head coach in franchise history.

The Leafs apparently swooped in at the last moment of negotiations and signed Babcock after it looked almost certain as if the Buffalo Sabres would sign the highly sought after coach. There are tears in Buffalo, for sure.

Babcock now becomes the highest paid coach in the NHL by a wide margin, and for good reason. He's widely regarded as the best coach in the NHL. He's 17th on the all-time coaching wins list and 9th on the all-time playoffs win list. He led the Detroit Red Wings to a Stanley Cup in 2009 and made Stanley Cup Final appearances in 2003 and 2010, he also won an Olympic Gold medal with Canada in 2010 and 2014. Under his watch the Red Wings made the playoffs in 10 straight seasons.

The Red Wings' consistency is even more impressive considering over the years they lost the likes of Nicklas Lidstrom, Marian Hossa, Brian Rafalski, and plenty of other useful players, yet still kept on ticking. It seems like every year for the past few seasons people have been predicting the demise of the Red Wings, yet somehow it hasn't happened under Babcock. The Red Wings are still a model of consistency. In terms of puck possession, the Wings were first in the league three times and second twice. In the only two years they were lower than fifth they finished ninth and sixth. No matter the roster the Red Wings under Babcock stayed excellent.

The Wings have always been able to integrate young players into the lineup and receive meaningful contributions almost immediately, which speaks to the strength of the Detroit draft and development system, but also to Babcock's ability as a coach. Last year the team suffered an almost comical rash of injuries throughout the season, yet the Red Wings soldiered on like they always do.

Face it, he's good. Even if you think no coach is worth that type of money (and, really, Babcock is now making more than all but 10 NFL coaches), it doesn't really matter to MLSE who have so much money this represents a drop in the bucket. With the salary cap on player salaries the Leafs can't outspend the competition on the ice (and considering the crop of post-lockout free agents that's probably a good thing), but they can pour tons of money into their off-ice personnel. The Leafs need to exploit every advantage their money allows, and combined with the David Clarkson trade, it looks like they finally are willing.

However, despite Babcock's stellar coaching resume, not much is likely to change for the Leafs position in the standings, at least in the short term. Provided the Leafs take a sledgehammer to much of the roster this off-season, Babcock will preside over a team short on talent and more likely to finish in the lottery than anywhere near the playoffs. The team lacks a No. 1 centre and No. 1 defenceman, and the roster is filled with one-dimensional players. Sure, he may coax a few extra wins out of the young team, but the next two seasons are more about implementing a winning system, getting the players to buy in, and developing the young players who can hopefully help create a future winner than it is making a playoff push.

So if the short term is still pretty bleak, why did Babcock choose Toronto?

Besides $50 million, the answer is simple: legacy. Getting the chance to come to Toronto and turn a historically terrible team into a champion would be the ultimate accomplishment, and for a guy who has won pretty much everything, that's a pretty good challenge and one that would immortalize him. It's the same reason Theo Epstein left the Boston Red Sox to become General Manager of the Chicago Cubs. Ended one drought and became a Boston legend. End one even longer in Chicago and your legacy is untouchable.

Buffalo was offering similar money, and maybe even more term, but the allure of Toronto was too strong. In the NHL, the challenge doesn't get much bigger than Toronto. The payoff doesn't get much bigger either.

Unlike in years past the challenge may not be as great as it once was. Under Brendan Shanahan the Leafs seem poised to build the team the right way. Almost the entire organization has been flushed and Shanahan has brought in Kyle Dubas and Mark Hunter who have dramatically altered the front office mindset. More importance will be placed on drafting rather than band-aid trades and signings. And it sounds as if the Leafs will take a more patient approach to development that seems taken right out of the Red Wings playbook.

It's still going to take a lot of hard work and plenty of breaks going the right way, but Babcock isn't joining a team that still thinks the team is a couple grit players and some health away from the post-season.

The Leafs have historically been a gong show, and nobody would have blamed Babcock for wanting no part of the circus, but he's choosing to be the ring leader. $50 million and a chance at immortality. No pressure.

How Long Will It Take the Leafs to Rebuild?

2015-02-14T14:05:00.000-05:00

With the Leafs set to embark on a full-scale rebuild, the most pressing question among Toronto fans is simple: How long until the Leafs can contend.

Re-building is not for the faint of heart. It takes plenty of years of being utterly terrible before the first signs of tangible progress, and sometimes plenty more after that before reaching the ultimate prize (just ask the St. Louis Blues).

To get a better understanding of just how long a rebuild might take in Toronto I looked at three of the past four Stanley Cup winners to see how they did it. I excluded the Boston Bruins because they didn't really rebuild, they succeeded in pulling off the magical re-tool on the fly, in large part because they made the greatest free agent singing ever (Zdeno Chara) and lucked into two franchise goalies (in one case the luck was having a team as stupid as the Leafs to trade with). Basically, the Bruins model is not easily replicable.

For the Kings, Blackhawks, and Penguins, I defined the start of the rebuild as the first season in which they flamed out after having been in the playoffs or at least in playoff contention for a number of years. If you're in the playoffs or at least close enough to have a shot late in the season (as the Kings were from 2003-2005) you aren't rebuilding. It's not until a team drops dramatically in the standings that they typically commit to a full rebuild.

So how did they do it?

Los Angeles Kings
Rebuild starts: 2006-07
First playoff appearance: 2009-10
Stanley Cup: 2012-13

Notable draft picks during rebuild stage
2007: Wayne Simmonds (2nd round, 61st overall), Alec Martinez (4th round, 95th overall)
2008: Drew Doughty (1st round, 2nd overall), Slava Voynov (2nd round, 32nd overall)
2009: Brayden Schenn (1st round, 5th overall)
Whiffs: Thomas Hickey (1st round, 4th overall, 2007), Colten Teubert (1st round, 13th overall)

Notable acquisitions during rebuild stage
2007: none
2008: Matt Greene, Jarret Stoll,
2009: Justin Williams, Ryan Smyth

Notable signings during rebuild stage
2007: Michal Handzus, Kyle Calder, Brad Stuart, Ladislav Nagy
2008: none
2009: Rob Scuderi, Jake Muzzin

Additional draft picks acquired: a net of two additional 1st round picks and three additional 2nd round picks between 2006-2009

The Kings' rebuild started with a solid foundation, as the team was able to find stars in Anze Kopitar, Dustin Brown, and Jonathan Quick outside of the top-10 draft picks in the years when they were still in playoff contention. Having already secured these players was integral as the Kings ultimately missed on two first round picks during their rebuilding stage — Thomas Hickey being an especially bad pick as LA owned the fourth overall pick that draft and reached for Hickey who Central Scouting ranked as the 17th best prospect.

Having Kopitar and Quick meant the Kings already had a No. 1 centre and a No. 1 goalie so they only really needed to find a No. 1 defenceman during their rebuild before having a solid enough foundation for true contention. Then drafting Drew Doughty and having him be able to make an almost immediate impact in the NHL is the main reason the Kings' rebuild took only three seasons before they were back in the playoffs. As you will see with the Hawks and Penguins not all rebuilds are that quick.

Chicago Blackhawks
Rebuild starts: 2003-04
First playoff appearance: 2008-09
Stanley Cup: 2009-10

Notable draft picks during rebuild stage
2004: Dave Bolland (2nd round, 32nd overall), Bryan Bickell (2nd round, 41st overall), Troy Brouwer (7th round, 214th overall)
2005: Nicklas Hjalmarsson (4th round, 108th overall)
2006: Jonathan Toews (1st round, 3rd overall)
2007: Patrick Kane (1st round, 1st overall)
2008: none
Whiffs: Cam Barker (1st round, 3rd overall, 2004), Jack Skille (1st round, 7th overall, 2005), Kyle Beach (1st round, 11th overall, 2008)

Notable acquisitions during rebuild stage
2004: Lockout
2005: Patrick Sharp, Radim Vrbata
2006: Martin Havlat, Michal Handzus
2007: Kris Versteeg
2008: Andrew Ladd

Notable signings during rebuild stage
2004: Lockout
2005: Nikolai Khabibulin, Adrian Aucoin
2006: none
2007: none
2008: Brian Campbell, Cristobal Huet, Antti Niemi

High draft picks acquired: a net of six additional 2nd round picks from 2003-2008

The Blackhawks too had a solid foundation to start as they were able to select Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook, and Dustin Byfuglien during the years they were a playoff team, and only Seabrook was taken in the first round.

As much as people attribute Chicago's success to drafting Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane in successive years with high draft picks, their continued dominance is also in large part thanks to their excellent drafting outside the first round. Their ability to still make quality picks later in the draft is a major reason why picking Jack Skille (7th overall) and Cam Barker (3rd overall) didn't kill them.

Chicago also did a pretty good job on the trade market, netting guys like Patrick Sharp, Andrew Ladd, and Kris Versteeg for cheap. Their major downfall was trying to accelerate their rebuild through the free agent market — disastrously in 2005, and somewhat less so in 2008 (because they still won a cup), although those decisions still gutted the post-championship Hawks and forced them to re-tool on the fly.

Pittsburgh Penguins
Rebuild starts: 2001-02
First playoff appearance: 2006-07
Stanley Cup: 2008-09

Notable draft picks during rebuild stage
2002: Ryan Whitney (1st round, 5th overall), Max Talbot (8th round, 234th overall)
2003: Marc-Andre Fleury (1st round, 1st overall), Matt Moulson (9th round, 263rd overall)
2004: Evgeni Malkin (1st round, 2nd overall), Alex Goligoski (2nd round, 61st overall), Tyler Kennedy (4th round, 99th overall)
2005: Sidney Crosby (1st round, 1st overall), Kris Letang (3rd round, 62nd overall)
2006: Jordan Staal (1st round, 2nd overall)
Whiffs: none (you can make a strong argument for Whitney but they parlayed him into Chris Kunitz)

Notable acquisitions during rebuild stage
2002: none
2003: none
2004: none
2005: none
2006: none

Notable signings during rebuild stage
2002: none
2003: none
2004: Lockout
2005: Sergei Gonchar, Ziggy Palffy, John LeClair
2006: Jarkko Ruutu, Mark Recchi

High draft picks acquired: a net of one additional 2nd round pick from 2001-2006

It's hard to look at the Penguins and see anything other than a pure tank in progress. The Penguins didn't make one notable acquisition or signing for three seasons (although to be fair one of those was a lockout) and didn't really try to improve in any way until they selected Sidney Crosby. But they also did a terrible job of selling off players for assets as they only managed to net one additional second round pick during their rebuild period and completely bungled the returns for both Jaromir Jagr and Alex Kovalev.

Unlike the Kings and Hawks, the Penguins didn't really miss on any of their high picks, which is one of the reasons why it didn't hurt them that their only real important carry over from their playoff years was Brooks Orpik. It also helped that they were able to find a top-pairing defenceman (Kris Letang) outside of the first round.

Ultimately, the Penguins rebuild was one that was hard to screw up as they lucked into a few years where the top talent was generational—Crosby and Malkin—unlike in other years where it's merely good to great (#OilersProblems). It's a good thing they were so lucky too, because they really didn't do anything to help themselves.

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What do these three case studies mean for the Maple Leafs?

At a minimum, the Leafs are looking at three seasons outside the playoffs, most of which will be pretty terrible. Although after almost a decade of that type of play already, doing so with a clear purpose sounds pretty good. Going by the same methodology as I used with the above teams, that would put the Leafs rebuild starting last season in 2013-14, meaning at the earliest the Leafs can hope for a playoff berth is in 2016-17, which sounds hopelessly optimistic (especially considering it's only now the Leafs realize they need to rebuild). If the Leafs take a track more similar to the Penguins or Blackhawks you're looking at a playoff berth in 2018-19, meaning the next three seasons will be rough. That sounds about right, and still plenty optimistic.

Toronto Maple Leafs
Rebuild starts: 2013-14
First playoff appearance: 2018-19?
Stanley Cup: 2020-21?

As for what lessons the Maple Leafs can learn, one of the most important seems to be amass picks. Both the Hawks and Kings acquired a bunch of additional picks in the first two rounds and it's no surprise that they were two of the better teams at finding talent outside the first round. The chances of finding not only an impact player, but even a guy who hits 50 career NHL games drops dramatically as the draft progresses, so having extra chances at unearthing a gem is extremely helpful. More picks can also lessen the impact of whiffing on any one, as there are more chances to recover.

Second, stay away from big free agent deals, at least until the team is on the cusp. Both the Hawks and Kings made some regrettable deals early on in their rebuilds and had to work so much harder in other areas to overcome them. The Leafs should focus on cheap, short-term deals like they did last summer and try to flip those guys at the deadline for picks or prospects to continually stockpile the system.

Additionally, unless you're at the top of the draft and have a generational talent waiting (can the Leafs finish bad enough for either Connor McDavid or Jack Eichel?) having a young, strong foundation is a major factor in ending the perpetual rebuild cycle.

Can Morgan Rielly become the Leafs' Duncan Keith? Will Stuart Percy or Connor Brown make an NHL impact? What about Jonathan Bernier, Nazem Kadri, Jake Gardiner and James van Riemsdyk? By the time the Leafs can contend those four will be in their late 20s, but the Hawks won their first Stanley Cup with key pieces like Patrick Sharp (28), Marian Hossa (31), and Brian Campebell (30), so they can still help the Leafs in the future.

It's also important to remember that the three teams above represent the absolute best case scenario. There are plenty of teams that have gone through similar rebuilds and found absolutely zero success (again, #OilersProblems). Even when teams do manage to make it out of the rebuilding stage there is still no guarantee they will have any real playoff success (like both the Blues and the Capitals).

The first step, however, is getting out of the rebuild stage and building a contender. And what it will come down to is drafting. Even if Rielly and Bernier are legitimate No. 1s at their position in the future, the Leafs still need to get an elite centre (almost always filled with a top draft pick) and quality pieces throughout the lineup. The Leafs hired Mark Hunter to lead their scouting and player evaluation department and over the next few seasons he's going to have to earn his pay cheque. Otherwise it will be another long walk in the wilderness for Leafs fans.

Can a Team Win with Kessel and Phaneuf?

2015-01-21T22:33:00.002-05:00

With the Leafs mired in another death spiral, the core is coming under increased scrutiny. The major question in Toronto is whether you can win with Phil Kessel and Dion Phaneuf.

It's certainly possible. And you have to look no further than the team who has won two of the last five Stanley Cups.

Kessel and Phaneuf don't play for Chicago, of course, but two very similar players do: Patrick Kane and Brent Seabrook. Both Kessel and Kane are offense-first wingers who can put up major points, but aren't really strong in any other aspect of the game. Phaneuf and Seabrook are both physical defenceman who are decent skaters and can put up around 40 points a year.

The difference, ultimately, is that Kessel and Phaneuf are largely surrounded by mediocrity, meaning they are the de facto alpha dogs in Toronto, whereas in Chicago Kane and Seabrook have Jonathan Toews, Marian Hossa, Duncan Keith, and Patrick Sharp as teammates, amongst plenty of other players who trump Toronto's depth easily. The next best forward on Toronto, James van Riemsdyk, would probably be the fifth best forward on Chicago. The next best defenceman on Toronto, Cody Franson (who in fairness might be better than Phaneuf), would probably be the fifth best defenceman on Chicago.

Swap Kessel and Phaneuf for Kane and Seabrook and the narrative following each player changes. As complementary parts on Chicago the Leafs duo would be key cogs to a perennial contender. Kessel's defensive deficiencies would be masked by a Selke-quality player like Toews and a bevy of two-way beasts, and his goal-scoring would be all that mattered. He would be insulated. Phaneuf, likewise, could pair with a superior defender in Keith, and have easier competition as players like Johnny Oduya and Niklas Hjalmarsson take the tougher defensive matchups.

In Toronto, Kane and Seabrook would do no better at turning the Leafs' fortunes around. Kane now becomes the lazy one-way player and Seabrook the overmatched defenceman. But because winning is all that really matters, their weaknesses are secondary. When there's plenty of talent on a team all that matters is what a player can do, not what they can't.

In Toronto all the talk is around how you can't build around Kessel and Phaneuf. And in a sense that's true if they are best as complementary parts. But it doesn't mean you don't need players like them. It means you need more players who are talented, and dealing two of your talented players doesn't really help in the talent department. It's not Kessel's fault that the Leafs were never able to acquire a player better than him.

On a contending team it's certainly possible to win with both Kessel and Phaneuf. The more pressing question, however, is whether the Leafs can win with Kessel and Phaneuf.

At this point it's unlikely.

When you look at the roster surrounding Toronto's two key figures, the team is missing a top-line centre, a top-pairing defenceman (or maybe two), another top-4 defenceman, and at least one or two top-six forwards. That's a bare minimum for realistic contention.

Some of those holes are easier to fill than others. Some of those holes are only filled by drafting and developing properly, something the Leafs haven't done well for decades.

Unless Morgan Rielly dramatically improves into a top-pairing guy soon and the Leafs are able to swing a deal for Ryan O'Reilly, only costing them, say, Tyler Bozak and Jake Gardiner, the Leafs don't look like they will be able to fill the most important of those holes within the next two seasons. Anyone who they might draft likely isn't going to make an immediate impact because they aren't in a position to draft high enough. Even drafting first overall is no sure bet for someone who can make an immediate impact as an 18-year-old.

So if they Leafs build incrementally through the draft, add in a few savvy trades and quality veteran signings, you're looking at three to five years down the road for a time to contend, at which time both Kessel and Phaneuf will be in the decline stage of their career. And imagining Kessel aging like Dany Heatley, another well-documented fitness slouch, doesn't seem too unrealistic.

That doesn't mean dump Kessel and Phaneuf on the first team to pick up the phone, but it means taking a look around the league and determining if the futures they might get for both players is a better bet to form a future contending team with the young players on the roster now.

Kessel and Phaneuf can be a part of a winning team. But as the losses mount it's unlikely they ever will in Toronto.

Rejoice! Leafs Fire Randy Carlyle

2015-01-06T17:58:00.000-05:00

Dave Nonis forgot one last Christmas present under the tree for Leafs fans, and delivered it on Tuesday, firing head coach Randy Carlyle.

The move comes half a season and one contract extension too late, but the news of Carlyle's dismissal is positive nonetheless.

In his time behind the bench, Carlyle amassed a 91-78-19 record, and led the Leafs to one playoff berth, albeit under a shortened season. This season the Leafs are 21-16-3 and cling to one of the wild-card spots in the Eastern Conference. The underlying numbers, however, paint an entirely different story. The club is still dominated at even-strength, allowing more shots than any team but Buffalo, a team who willingly created a terrible hockey club. If not for opportunistic scoring, quality goaltending, and decent special teams, the Leafs would be fighting in the lottery like years past. If their play at even-strength doesn't change with the new coach they likely will be again, as you can only outrun the shot clock for so long until it catches up. Just look at the last two full seasons.

Despite recognizing that the team could not continue to win in such a manner, Carlyle was unable to implement a system that could reverse the trend year after year. In fact, in most years the Leafs got worse as the season wore on. It's as if Carlyle implemented changes at the beginning of the year and failed to adapt once other teams figured out the Leafs. Somehow, more Jay McClement or Roman Polak wasn't the answer, not that it stopped Randy.

As if his system wasn't bad enough, Carlyle actively made the roster worse by pushing out quality players (Mikhail Grabovski and Clarke MacArthur, most notably) and convincing Nonis to bring in players more suited to his style of hockey (David Clarkson and Dave Bolland, most notably, but sadly not only).

Pension Plan Puppets has a long series of articles detailing exactly how bad Carlyle has been for the Leafs. It isn't pretty. It's unbelievable that it took the Leafs this long to get rid of the man.

Peter Horachek and Steve Spott will take over the coaching duties in the interim, and it's unlikely any permanent decision will be made until Mike Babcock either signs an extension in Detroit or accepts a Brinks truck full of money from Brendan Shanahan.

The circumstances are familiar to Horachek, who took over a struggling Florida Panthers club mid-way through last season and dramatically and quickly turned their puck possession numbers around, a matter that has befuddled Carlyle for the last three seasons. One reason for Horachek's success was an increased reliance on young centres Nick Bjustad and Alex Barkov, and a similar uptick in ice time for Nazem Kadri and Peter Holland could prove beneficial as well, at least because it would limit Tyler Bozak's ice time.

Changing the coach is not going to be a magic bullet that immediately transforms the Leafs into a contender, but now at least upper management can get a better evaluation of the talent on the roster. It's unlikely that placing Carter Ashton on waivers was the most dramatic change for the Leafs in the coming months.

Tyler Seguin No Longer Haunts Leafs

2014-11-23T13:03:00.001-05:00

"Does it hurt to watch Tyler Seguin?"

That's a common question many Leafs fans get, especially as Seguin launches an offensive assault on the league.

You may have heard this before, but the Maple Leafs traded the draft pick that eventually became Seguin. The Phil Kessel trade is rarely discussed so don't feel bad if you didn't know this fact. Oh, what's that? You've heard that before. Of course, because by law the Kessel-Seguin swap needs to be brought up EVERY SINGLE DAY. For eternity.

But unlike other painful trades of the past that continually hurt Leafs Nation's collective psyche (like the Tom Kurvers-pick-that-became-Scott Niedermayer deal that everyone was reminded of as Cody Franson crept up on a Kurvers points streak record), the Seguin trade doesn't hurt. And I'm not just saying that because the Leafs have killed off any feelings I still might have inside of me.

The Seguin trade doesn't hurt because the pains of a trade diminish as each successive team trades the player in question. Leafs fans may have regrets, but so too do the Bruins. The more teams that share in your misery, the better.

And at this point, the misery is almost solely on Boston. The Seguin deal represents Phil Kessel in Toronto—a player with the second-most points in the league over the past four seasons. In Boston, however, the Seguin trade represents Loui Eriksson (less than 50 points in two years in Boston), Reilly Smith (a decent complementary player) and Matt Fraser (a bottom line forward). Regrets? Oh yeah.

More importantly, the major difference between the Leafs and the Bruins when it comes to Seguin is that the Bruins knew what they were getting rid of when they made the deal. They had already seen glimpses of Seguin the superstar before he turned 21. They knew what he was likely to become and they got rid of him anyways. The Leafs never had Seguin, they dealt a draft pick, and even though that pick became Seguin, there is no guarantee the Leafs would have used the pick on Seguin, or that he would have even become what he is today, had the Leafs kept that pick. In fact, the self-loathing Leafs fan inside all of us probably believes the Leafs would have actively ruined Seguin had he been drafted by Toronto.

So Seguin may be on pace to break the 50-goal barrier this season and he may have 100-point seasons in his future, but each time the red light goes off Leafs Nation need not feel pain. The Bruins, on the other hand? The aging, fading Bruins? The ones that could desperately use an injection of game-breaking youth? Ask them about the Seguin trade and the answer might be much different.

What to do with Cody Franson

2014-11-10T22:40:00.002-05:00

#458419034 / gettyimages.com

From the press box to the top defensive pairing, Cody Franson has come a long way in his four seasons as a Maple Leaf. Now in the final year of his contract the Leafs have to decide whether he's a key piece for their future or whether he's expendable.

For a while it looked like Franson was merely a bottom-pairing defenceman with a good shot capable of racking up points on the power play. Now Franson has become the Leafs best possession defenceman while playing alongside Dion Phaneuf on the top pair. When Franson takes the ice the Leafs gain a shot advantage they haven't enjoyed in years; the team controls 50.1% of all shot attempts with Franson, and fall back to their customary shelled selves when he takes a breather.

As always with these early statistics, a small sample size caveat applies, but the role Randy Carlyle is using Franson in isn't artificially inflating his numbers.

Although Franson and Phaneuf aren't getting the extreme defensive minutes that the captain has been accustomed to in the past (the heavy defensive zone starts are falling on Roman Polak), they are facing the opposition's best players more often than not. Against the Rangers on Saturday, for example, the duo played 65% of their even-strength minutes against Martin St. Louis and Rick Nash.

In addition, Franson hasn't lost a step offensively with the harder competition. He has 8 points in 13 games and another 30-point season seems like a low bar. Although he doesn't score at the rate of P.K. Subban or Erik Karlsson, the game's elite point-producers from the backend, Franson has 70 points dating back to 2012 when he established himself as a full-time player, good enough for 20th among defencemen.

Now a year before becoming an unrestricted free agent, Franson picked a great time to establish himself as a legitimate top-4 defenceman, both from an offensive and defensive perspective. Until this point the Leafs have shown no interest in locking him up long term, preferring instead to keep him on short one-year deals. If they are convinced now he is a part of their future it might be too late.

Last off-season Matt Niskanen parlayed one strong offensive season into a seven-year contract worth $40.25 million. Although Niskanen has shown an ability to positively influence his team's shot-differential over his career (52.7% when he's on the ice), the Capitals also doled out a huge deal to the rapidly declining Brooks Orpik, so I'm not so certain they paid too much attention to those stats. Simply put, guys who can play top-4 minutes on the backend and put up points are incredibly valuable on the open market.

Franson will be one of the youngest defencemen to hit the market this summer, although there is enough potential competition (Marc Staal, Francois Beauchemin, Johnny Boychuk, Paul Martin, Christian Ehrhoff, Mike Green), that a major Niskanen-type pay day may not be in the cards. But based on his performance so far this season and his consistent ability to produce, there is enough evidence to suggest that someone will give him at least what the Leafs gave Jake Gardiner (5 years, $20.25 million).

With plenty of long-term, pricey contracts already on the books, plus the need to re-sign Nazem Kadri this summer and Morgan Rielly the summer after, there realistically isn't the money available to keep Franson, unless the Leafs can somehow dump David Clarkson on some sucker.

The dilemma then becomes do the Leafs keep Franson all season considering the primary role he has with the team, knowing he's unlikely to stay once he hits July 1, or do they try to deal him at the deadline or before to pick up some badly needed assets.

The Leafs went through the same dilemma with John-Michael Liles a few seasons ago, and look how badly that turned out. Teams perennially outside the playoffs can't afford to make the same mistakes twice.

2014-15 Maple Leafs Season Preview

2014-09-30T21:47:00.000-04:00

The 2013-14 NHL season gets underway on Oct. 8 with the Leafs and Canadiens renewing rivalries, and what better way to get set than a season preview giving you the five reasons to be optimistic, pessimistic, and realistic about the Leafs' chances?

5 reasons to be optimistic

1. Information no longer ignored

As the rest of the hockey world slowly embraced the use of analytics in their decision making over the past few seasons, the Leafs essentially mocked the use of any sort of data whenever they could. Dave Nonis admitted the team had an analytics budget, but failed to use it. Seemingly every week last summer a new interview came out quoting a Leafs executive or coach saying something stupid like the Leafs "absolutely" could suppress shot quality in favour of shot quantity or that "Colton Orr has proven he's more than a pure enforcer... he is one of the more reliable guys at chipping pucks out."

Instead of learning from their shortcomings and fixing flaws, the Leafs management thought they were the smartest people in the room and doubled down on all the stupid decisions of the past decade, eventually producing a team that was barely above the lottery.

Since Brendan Shanahan entered the picture things have changed. The Leafs cleaned house, with only Nonis and Carlyle remaining to become sacrificial lambs when needed, and hired a whizz kid as the assistant GM, along with an ace analytics team. Now the Leafs might pay attention to information that could help them predict future performance, rather than relying on blind faith. Speaking of which...

2. Dave Nonis, although employed, is effectively neutered

The off-season that started with the Leafs trying to re-sign Dave Bolland to a huge deal, only to be saved by a Florida Panthers offer that was even too crazy for the Leafs to match (and when it comes to gritty, third liners getting paid, you should never offer more than the Leafs). It ended with a rash of low-risk, high-reward deals for very little money that gave the team some depth after Nonis and Carlyle decimated it one summer earlier. Coincidentally, the shift in thinking happened around the time Brendan Shanahan brought in Kyle Dubas, characterized in some circles as having a brain and using it.

While negotiating a new deal for Jake Gardiner, Nonis acknowledged the team was initially looking at a short deal, before switching their thinking and inking Gardiner to a long-term deal. Hmmm, I wonder what happened exactly.

At this point Nonis is in charge, but it's only in name. He might be able to make the day-to-day moves needed to run the club, but it's clear that any decision that materially affects the Leafs and their long-term future is made without his approval.

3. Stand-on-your-head goaltender still there

The past two seasons the Leafs have benefited from fantastic goaltending, although last season it cracked under the weight of a barrage of shots down the stretch.

In Jonathan Bernier's first year in Toronto he snatched the No. 1 job away from James Reimer and posted the best season of his career, notching a .923 save percentage (.933 at even-strength). Don't count out Reimer, however, as he is not far removed from a 2012-13 season in which he posted a .924 save percentage, a year he was similarly dismissed heading into the season.

Even if the Leafs can only improve marginally defensively, it will go a long way provided Bernier and Reimer can play to their career levels and clean up a lot of the mess that gets through.

4. Probably no Colton Orr

The rumblings over the off-season, combined with the whack of cheap depth signings, indicate that the Leafs are going to ice a competent fourth line next season. That means no Colton Orr and/or Frazer McLaren (side note: it's unbelievable an NHL team in 2014 would punt two roster spots, but I digress) playing a useless five minutes a night actively making the rest of the team worse.

Using three players on the fourth line that can actually do more than punch people in the face means that the rest of the roster will be fresher throughout the season and, who knows, maybe Toronto can actually get some offense from someone in the bottom six.

The major caveat here is that Randy Carlyle still coaches so it's probably best not to get too excited.

5. Things can't possibly get any worse

Toronto sports knows no bottom, so saying things can't get any worse is almost an invitation for a voodoo curse to be put on Phil Kessel that spreads through the team. But really, if things go badly heads will roll and substantial change might finally happen. That's still something to look forward to.

5 reasons to be pessimistic

1. Randy Carlyle, amazingly, is still employed

It doesn't matter how much information is free flowing through the organization because it's up to Carlyle to implement it. He hasn't been able to figure out how to stem the increasing shots against, which goes way back to when the Ducks lost Chris Pronger. He's been trying to figure it out for years, yet still can't come up with a solution that doesn't rely on Hall of Fame defencemen cleaning up mistakes. I'm skeptical that a few months of analytics boot camp has made an impact on his lizard brain.

2. One of the league's weakest group of centres still weak

It's extremely difficult to acquire a No. 1 centre, even though Dallas just traded for two over the past two summers. But it's hard to believe the Leafs are still trotting out what is essentially the same tired group down the middle that has been among the league's worst.

Nazem Kadri had a strong season last year, despite what his critics say, and is a fine second-line centre. Tyler Bozak is great at playing Call of Duty with Kessel and providing him with a top-notch BFF, but in terms of actual hockey skill, he's severely lacking, especially in his role as a No. 1 centre (and don't be fooled by all his points last season). The Leafs signed enough low-risk guys that the bottom six could be much improved from last year, especially if Peter Holland has a breakout season, but that's a lot of hope at this point. Going into the season only Kadri is slotted where he should be.

The best teams are deep down the middle. Even in a weak Eastern Conference it's hard to see Toronto's group being better than anyone other than Buffalo and Ottawa, and maybe New York and Carolina thanks to injuries.

3. Puckless possession

Teams that posses the puck more than their opposition win more often than not. It's not overly complicated. Teams that have the puck more than the opposition out-shoot the opposition. Teams that out-shoot the opposition generally out-chance the opposition. And teams that out-chance the opposition usually out-score the opposition. Last year the Leafs essentially gave their opponents the puck 60% of the time at even-strength. That's historically awful.

If Toronto has any hope of becoming a true contender (or even become halfway respectable) they will have to learn how to better manage the puck and maintain control of it. Gifting your opponent with 35-40 shots a game is a tough way to play, and over an 82 game season it's going to catch up with you.

4. The penalty kill still stinks

The greatest trick the devil ever played was convincing Maple Leafs fans that the penalty kill wasn't horrible. We'll always have fond memories of 2012-13, a time when the Leafs didn't give up a short-handed goal every game.

Aside from the fluke half-season, the Leafs have been abysmal short-handed for years. Last year's 78.4% mark (better than only the Panthers and the Islanders) is somehow their second best penalty kill percent of the last seven seasons. Let that sink in.

5. If things get ugly there's always Connor McDavid

If the Leafs seasons get truly ugly there are two positives to take from: 1) Nonis and Carlyle will undoubtedly be sacrificed; and 2) the Leafs should have a great shot at drafting Connor McDavid, one of the most hyped prospects since Sidney Crosby. This year's draft also boasts American Jack Eichel, who is closely ranked to McDavid, meaning there are two stud prospects available, unlike some of the past few seasons where the top prospects were good, but none view as transcendental (Nathan MacKinnon being the major exception of the past five years).

5 reasons to be realistic

1. Revamped defence is a huge question mark

It would almost be impossible for the Leafs defence to be any worse than they were last season, although the changes they made during the off-season are no sure thing. Stephane Robidas, who has done well in the past in a shutdown role, is 37 and coming off a major injury which might not even be fully healed by the start of the regular season. Roman Polak was a bottom-pairing defenceman for the Blues, and there is a very strong argument that he's actually less effective than Carl Gunnarsson. Both will likely be used to take some of the tougher minutes away from Dion Phaneuf, but whether they are more capable of playing those minutes remains to be seen.

Unleashing Jake Gardiner and Morgan Rielly could go a long way to making the Leafs more dynamic from the backend and could give them a completely different look. Just how unchained they are depends on Carlyle (or Carlyle's successor).

The Leafs certainly made changes to the defence, but it's hard to say before puck drop whether they are actually better.

2. Entirely new system in place

The swarm is dead, which is a good thing, because as Justin Bourne broke down in detail, it "created a domino effect that hampered [Toronto's] ability to exit their zone, left them hemmed in, and tuckered their skaters out."

The Leafs are trying to be more aggressive this season, especially in the neutral zone. New assistant coach Peter Horachek is responsible for rescuing the defence and said "if you can control the neutral zone, you control the game."After a pre-season win against the Flyers, Bernier mentioned "in our neutral zone we were actually more aggressive and we forced them to dump the puck," something that could go a long way to stemming the offensive onslaught the Leafs have endured over the past few seasons.

New tactics, new coaches, and a brand new system are major positives, but whether the Leafs can actually implement them effectively remains to be seen.

3. The East is weak

The Bruins and Penguins will battle it out for tops in the Conference as always, and the Lightning made big improvements to their defence, but the rest of the conference is different shades of meh. Some you can more easily see as contenders (the Habs are thin at centre but strong pretty much everywhere else; the Rangers lost some key players after a trip to the Stanley Cup Final, but they still have Lundqvist), but even flawed teams can reasonably grab a five or six seed and bad teams have a shot at squeaking into the playoffs. This conference is ugly. The Leafs are ugly. Might just be ugly enough to work.

4. Injuries already a concern

A thin defence might already have to start the season without Cody Franson as he suffered a knee injury in the pre-season. Right now it's described as a bruise, but he needed help leaving the ice and put no weight on his knee. And a bruise/swelling might be masking the fact that the injury is more severe than initially believed, like David Booth's bruise from blocking a shot which turned out to be a fractured foot, sidelining him for four weeks. David Clarkson broke an orbital bone getting into a useless fight with Cody McCormick, but he should be back for the start of the season (whether you take that as good or bad is your prerogative).

Those aren't monumental losses, and it gives an opportunity for a young player to step up, but it isn't the best way to start the season. Plus, there's always the threat of a Joffrey Lupul injury and last year Bernier was unable to log a full starter's workload without injury.

5. You don't want to contract Blue and White disease

If the last few years hasn't completely beaten the hope out of you and made you take a sober look at this team you are surely incurable. Just sit back and let the Blue and White disease consume you.

2014-2015 Fantasy Hockey Sleepers

2014-09-16T18:16:00.000-04:00

#484272755 / gettyimages.com

Last year might have been my worst season at predicting sleepers in the history of this blog. But I somehow still ended up winning my fantasy league, so that should give you some reason to trust my predictions this season.

If you want to do a little more digging yourself you should check out the official 5MFF fantasy hockey strategy guide as well as a handy primer to using advanced stats to crush your opponents. If you want to blindly trust my analysis jump ahead, I appreciate your faith.

As always sleepers are defined here as any player whose production this season should exceed the output of their draft position. So while this list may not have many obscure players, they should all be quality value picks.

Forwards

Patric Hornqvist

Before Evgeni Malkin, James Neal was a 25-goal power forward worthy of a late pick in fantasy leagues. With Malkin, Neal became a fantasy beast, hitting the 40-goal mark in a dominating first season in Pittsburgh. Hornqvist was roughly a 25-goal player in Nashville when healthy, so the potential for a similar transformation is there.

Evgeny Kuznetsov

Washington's 2010 first-round pick led his KHL team in scoring the past three years before finally making the jump to the NHL late last season. Kuznetsov scored 9 points in 17 games with the Caps and should get a real shot to play alongside Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom this year.

Jonathan Drouin

The top prospect in the game should make the Lightning this year, especially with Martin St. Louis' departure. Oh, and doesn't that wing beside Steven Stamkos look positively inviting for the playmaking prodigy. Even though numbers from the QMJHL always need to be taken with a grain of salt, Drouin's 108 points in 46 games project to about 50 points in the NHL.

Radim Vrbata

A relative nobody tucked away in Phoenix, Vrbata is so unheralded that you probably had no idea he scored 35 goals a few years ago. He could be the missing link beside the Sedins, a player who is finally good enough that he doesn't have to leach off the hard work of the preternatural twins to get his points (cough Alex Burrows cough).

Nick Bjustad

Centre is so deep that you need not spend anything more than a late round flyer on Bjustad, but he's the type of high-ceiling guy that could come through major in your pool. He scored 38 points in his first full season in the NHL, but he's so big and strong (6'6, 220 lbs), that once he figures out his game he could absolutely dominate.

Aleksander Barkov

The other big centre in Flordia, Barkov put up slightly better per-game numbers than Bjustad and drove possession at a better rate. He even had some bad luck on his side as the Panthers only converted about 6% of even-strength shots with Barkov on the ice, a number that should tick upwards meaning more points. Even though the Panthers made a bunch of dumb money signings in the off-season, those players should complement the Panthers' young core, leading to an improved squad.

Ryan Strome

The Islanders have been patient with Strome, giving him his first taste of the NHL after two full seasons in junior and another 37 games in the AHL. Strome ripped apart the OHL and was doing the same in the AHL (49 points in 37 games) before a call-up to the big club. With the Islanders he notched a respectable 18 points in 37 games (about 40 over a full season), and was getting over two minutes a game on the power play. With the departure Thomas Vanek and Matt Moulson, there is plenty of opportunity for Strome in the top 6.

Alex Galchenyuk

In his first two seasons in the NHL, Galchenyuk has been too injured to make a major impact (a more than passing concern considering he blew out his knee in his draft year). Playing in the bottom 6 hasn't helped either, but look for Galchenyuk to work his way up in the lineup this season, perhaps even replacing David Desharnais on the top line.

Tyler Toffoli

He's been a goal-scorer at every level—he twice topped 50 goals in junior, and added 43 in only 76 AHL games. Playing on a scoring line in the playoffs showed Toffoli could score at the NHL level too, and if he sees regular time with Jeff Carter he's likely to keep scoring.

Defencemen

T.J. Brodie

Scoring 31 points for the Flames last season puts Brodie as a borderline starting fantasy defenceman, although bigger numbers could be in the young Flames future if players like Sean Monahan or Sam Bennett (should he make the team) start to make a sizeable impact. If veteran Dennis Wideman misses any time with an injury or is dealt to a contender looking for offense from the blueline, more power play minutes for Brodie could also help.

Jake Muzzin

Over 132 career NHL games Muzzin has only 41 points, which is only around 25 per 82 games. That isn't very good for a fantasy defenceman, until you consider the Kings control the play at an exceptional level with Muzzin on the ice, which has yet to translate into points for Muzzin because the team only shoots 6.55% in those situations. Some better finishing (Marian Gaborik should help) and Muzzin should see his point total climb considerably.

Christian Ehrhoff

Ehrhoff is ranked low because his Buffalo vacation depressed his numbers, but being back on a high-powered offensive team with PP time means a return to 40-50 point seasons is a reality. The only downside is that everyone knows Ehrhoff can put up points on a stacked team like the Pens, so even though he's ranked low he likely won't be drafted as late as you'd like a true sleeper.

Calvin de Haan or Matt Donovan

With Andrew MacDonald getting PAID in Philadelphia, there is a huge hole on the Isles' top power play. One of the Islanders' young defencemen will take that time, with either de Haan or Donovan being the most likely. Both drove possession at a strong rate, meaning there will be a lot of pucks going towards the opposition's net even when they aren't on the PP. But the power play opportunity is the most tantalizing, so take whichever player is getting the PP minutes.

Dougie Hamilton

He was a scoring force in junior, and that has yet to translate at the NHL level. He's starting to figure out the pro game and is getting some decent power play minutes as well. As Zdeno Chara gets older look for the Bruins to rely more heavily on its youth, particularly Hamilton. That could start as early as this season if Hamilton breaks out.

Morgan Rielly

27 points in 73 games isn't bad for a teenager, but what is more encouraging is the way Rielly is able to skate effortlessly all over the ice and create plays. With the Leafs embracing analytics, the shackles might be coming off Rielly and his buddy Jake Gardiner, allowing them to play a more dynamic game.

Seth Jones

His minus-23 was ugly last season, but a full season of Pekka Rinne behind him should help. He scored a respectable 25 points, but could be poised for more if he can outplay Roman Josi and earn himself some extra minutes. As the fourth overall pick in 2013, the talent is certainly there.

Goalies

Warning: Goaltenders are the ultimate crapshoot, with guys who looked finished turning in Vezina-worthy seasons on a semi-frequent basis and no-names from overseas or the minors taking the league by storm. You can take almost anyone in the final few rounds as a third goalie and be pleasantly surprised.

Ben Scrivens

Picking a goalie for the Oilers is fantasy suicide, right? Usually you would be right, but at some point the Oilers have to improve, and that might start in net. Scrivens is no stranger to being shelled, apprenticing in Toronto will do that to you, so he didn't seem out of place in Edmonton late last season. He was incredible in Los Angeles and only average in Edmonton, but the Oilers are in such desperate need of even average goaltending that if Scrivens plays to his career norms there is an opportunity for plenty more wins.

John Gibson

The main difference between Jonas Hiller and Frederik Andersen last season was how well each did when the Ducks were short-handed. Andersen was phenomenal and Hiller stunk. Andersen was so much better than average, however, that he is unlikely to be so fortunate again. If his numbers predictably fall, the opportunity for top prospect Gibson to step in is there.

Anton Khudobin

He's stopped the puck everywhere he's played, and with Cam Ward fighting injuries and a troubling habit of playing terribly, a starting gig might well be in Khudobin's future, provided he can stay healthy.

2014 Fantasy Hockey Team Names

2014-09-06T09:51:00.000-04:00

Bad News Berezins

As you get older many more and more things begin to take increasing importance in your life: family, work, house, dogs (I will begrudgingly list cats as well), etc. It's perfectly understandable if you have less time to devote to fantasy hockey, so I get it if life gets in the way of researching sleepers or developing a killer draft strategy or learning how advanced stats can help win your league. But no matter how little you pay attention to fantasy hockey, the one non-negotiable area of your life you absolutely cannot neglect is your team name.

Luckily, I'm here to help. Or, more accurately, my friend Mike is here to help. Below is a list of the best of his 2014 creations. I have added a few that were floating around the internet, but these are probably 95% Mike's creations.

So although your kids may take the No. 1 spot in life's priorities these days, after naming little Katniss or baby Apollo, there's not much more important than naming your fantasy hockey team.

If nothing on this list suits your fancy check out all the fantasy hockey team names from 2013, 2012, 2011, and 2010. As always, feel free to add your own creations or anything else you find in the comments below.

Movies

Against All Saads
Along Came a Kreider
Big Trouba in Little China
Bullet to the Hedberg
Fantastic Forsberg
Hot To Trotz
Kane and Gain
Krejci Stupid Love
Lord of the Byngs
Merchant of Ennis
Million Dollar Armstrong
The Lost Boyes
Peter Holland's Opus
Pomminvillage of the Damned
Risky Bryzness
Stajan Alive

TV

Bernier Love
Boyle Pains
Happy Schenndings
The Lindy Project
Malkin Crest
Miami Weiss
Rangers With Candy
Teenage Mutant Ninja Hertl
To Catch A Nashville Predator
The Walking Deadmarsh
Ward to Death

Music

Breaking the Eichel
Gudas Priest
Hedman's Bones
Kreiders of the Storm
Nightmare of Yuskevitch
Reinhart Will Go On
Saaddamnit
Tumblin' Griess
The Wind Beneath Red Wings
Yeah Yeah Yakupovs

Sayings

Bryzness as Usual
Do as I Seguin, Not as I Drouin
Khudobin There, Done That
Leave A Messier
Love 'Em & Leaf 'Em
¡Muy Leino!
Oiler Alert!
Over the Hiller
Roy vey!
Sakic-in' it Old School
Spooner Rather Than Later
Trocheck Yourself (before you wreck yourself)

Other

Darche Vibes
Halak of Faith
Haute Couture
Hedberg of State
Hertl Power
Markov the Beast
Modern Haseks
Neal Before Zod
Orpik Your Poison
Paper Wingels
Parenteau-drag
Stalock and Key
Vanek down by the river
Varlamov Cocktail
You Talkin' Rutuu To Me?

Is Montreal in Danger of Losing P.K. Subban?

2014-08-02T10:52:00.002-04:00

The Montreal Canadiens are playing a dangerous game with star defenceman P.K. Subban, and it might cost them.

Unbelievably, the two sides went to arbitration after a deal could not be worked out. Subban has asked for $8.5 million while the Canadiens have countered with $5.25 million. It is possible a long-term deal is worked out before the arbitrator hands down a decision, but if not the two sides with be bound to the one-year deal awarded by the arbitrator. Afterwards, the Habs will be unable to sign Subban to a new contract until January, 2015. Subban is eligible for unrestricted free agency in 2016.

There is some reason to believe a long-term deal is unlikely, however. Arbitration is never a fun process, especially for the player, as they have to sit there and learn in detail exactly what their team dislikes about their game.

CBC's Elliotte Friedman guessed the lawyers representing the Habs made an argument like this:

"We are not going to argue that PK is a dynamic offensive player who our fans love. But, he has defensive deficiencies and is not in the same class as Shea Weber, who was given a record $7.5 million award three years ago. He is not in the same class as Drew Doughty, who makes $7 million. But, if you want to tell us he is worth $6.5 million like Erik Karlsson, we can accept that."

Players often take arbitration personal, and according to Friedman, Subban left the meeting and "didn't look like himself", calling it an "educational process".

The last superstar restricted free agent that went to arbitration was Shea Weber, and he only ended up long-term in Nashville because he signed an offer sheet with Philadelphia that was matched.

According to TSN's Bob McKenzie, the longer Subban goes without a long-term extension the odds of him going to UFA or being traded increase.

Montreal's insistence on playing hardball with Subban is puzzling. Subban is coming off a two-year bridge deal which came with a $2.875 million cap hit. It took a holdout by Subban that drifted into the season before a resolution was struck. Usually the thinking behind a bridge deal is to determine whether a player is for real then to give him his money once he proves it. During those two years of Subban's cheap deal the Habs were able to escape salary cap hell and ice a competitive team that made the playoffs twice, last year making it all the way to the Eastern Conference Final. For being a good soldier and letting the Habs fill out a more competitive roster at his expense, you would think the Habs would be willing to pay the piper. The Canadiens have decided against paying Subban big money, despite his ascension.

Over the past two years Subban has won a Norris Trophy, been named to the Canadian Olympic team, led all defencemen in points with 91, and played top-line minutes in all situations for the Canadiens. Over the past two years with P.K. Subban on the ice the Habs have controlled 52% of all even-strength shot attempts—basically the going rate of a playoff team—but only 47.5% when he's off the ice—which would make them look more like a lottery team. I'm not sure what else Subban can do to prove he's an elite defenceman.

Subban right now is probably one of the best five defencemen in the league, at worst he's in the top 10. With over $11.5 million in cap space, Subban isn't someone to nickel and dime. If you want to save money do it on the bottom-6 or the backup goalie. Those are easily replaced positions. Players like Subban very rarely become available. Just look at how expensive free agent defencemen were this off-season, and most of them were a collection of second-pairing guys, no true No. 1 amongst them.

The thing is, $8.5 million really isn't unreasonable for someone like Subban, and if that's all it takes to get Subban signed for the next eight seasons the Habs should be ecstatic. Shea Weber's $7.5 million arbitration award in 2011-12 works out to $8.05 million under today's cap (and that deal bought out no UFA years). Drew Doughty's $7 million contract in 2011-12 works out to $7.51 million under today's cap, although that deal bought out four RFA years and four UFA years (Subban has fewer RFA years to buy out at a discount). Erik Karlsson's contract in 2012-13 is also close to $7.5 million under today's cap, which again bought out fewer UFA years than a potential Subban deal would.

If the Habs fail to sign Subban to a long-term contract before the arbitrator hands down a decision, the closer Subban will be to becoming a UFA and the more tempting the thought of a major pay day becomes. Players of Subban's calibre, at his age, do not make it to unrestricted free agency. Teams don't let them.

If the Canadiens don't want to pay Subban the $8.5 million he seeks, or anything reasonably close to it, they certainly aren't going to like the $10+ million he gets in a few years as a free agent. At that point they will have no one to blame but themselves.

Does David Booth Still Have Top-6 Potential?

2014-07-24T08:00:00.000-04:00

Once again it looks like the Vancouver Canucks' trash is the Toronto Maple Leafs' treasure. Last year the Leafs snagged Mason Raymond on a bargain deal and this year Dave Nonis went to his old team to pluck the freshly bought-out David Booth on a one-year deal worth $1.1 million.

Raymond was highly motivated in his stint in Toronto after being tossed aside by the Canucks, producing 45 points for a measly $1 million. Raymond's 19 goals as a Leaf was his best output since scoring 25 in 2009-10. The hope with Booth is that he can reclaim some of the form that saw him net 31 goals with the Panthers way back in 2008-09.

Since his breakout seven seasons ago, Booth's point totals have declined from 60 to a paltry 19. Peppered in that decline are two seasons of less than 30 games played. Reading Booth's injury list is like studying for a medical exam. He's suffered injuries to his ankle, groin, knee, ribs, shoulder, neck, and head—the latter being the most concerning as Booth has missed major time with concussions.

Injuries can largely explain why the explosive offensive element has been sapped from his game. Vancouver initially viewed Booth as a nice complementary piece to round out their top-6 behind the Sedins, but as it became apparent the Canucks bought damaged goods, Booth settled into a bottom-6 role over the past two seasons and was removed almost entirely from the power play.

Although Booth has lost his offense, he might still be a viable option in the top-6 in Toronto, at least on a trial basis. Over the last three seasons, the Canucks controlled 55% of all even strength shot attempts when Booth was on the ice. The only time the Canucks did better was when the Sedins were playing. That's pretty good, even though the Canucks had trouble translating that shot advantage into a goal advantage, as they only scored about 47% of the even strength goals with Booth.

Some of that discrepancy between shots and goals can be explained by Booth's teammates. His most frequent linemates last year were Zach Kassian and Brad Richardson, both decent players, but by no means offensive dynamos. Although it should be noted Booth wasn't exactly going up against world-beaters, most frequently matching up against the opponent's third or fourth lines.

But maybe with some better finishers and creative types, Booth could have a bounce back season like Raymond before him. Just his luck, the Leafs have a line that could use his skill set. For such a poor puck possession team like the Leafs, adding Booth to a scoring line to try to gain a possession edge is a good plan. Over the past two years Nazem Kadri and Joffrey Lupul have shown some nice chemistry together and have had little trouble scoring. Their main problem has been defensively, as neither has been able to stem the tide the other way. Maybe adding Booth to that duo helps shore up the line defensively and gives them more offensive zone time, putting Booth in a better position to succeed offensively as he's now riding shotgun with a true finisher and a nifty playmaker.

If that doesn't work—or if the Leafs insist on getting their money's worth from David Clarkson and try again to force chemistry between him and Kadri—Booth can capably play in a bottom-6 role. His days as a 30-goal scorer are long gone, but that doesn't mean he can't provide some value. And really, for his cap hit, Booth doesn't need to provide much valuable to be worth his contract. Almost nothing can go wrong on a cheap, one-year deal, and if Booth proves unable to beat out the countless other cheap, depth forwards the Leafs have, burying him in the minors costs a few hundred thousand dollars.

Nonis may have let Raymond walk for more money elsewhere, but he might have just signed this year's version of Raymond at a fraction of the cost.

Kyle Dubas Hiring a Ray of Hope for Toronto

2014-07-22T22:02:00.000-04:00

The Boston Red Sox ended an 86-year World Series drought after hiring a 28-year-old executive named Theo Epstein, and after the Maple Leafs hired 28-year-old Kyle Dubas as assistant GM on Tuesday there is hope a similar miracle might work in Toronto.

Dubas leaves the OHL's Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds, whom he led as GM for the past three years, and will enter a Maple Leafs front office that also sees capologist Claude Loiselle and vice-president of hockey operations Dave Poulin fired.

Unlike some of the financial powerhouses of the OHL, like London, the Greyhounds didn't have a large budget to work with. That meant Dubas was required to squeeze the most value out of every transaction—one reason why he bought everyone in the office a copy of The Extra 2% by Jonah Keri upon his hire—and also meant he was required to be open to any sort of idea that might help his team win. There were setbacks along the way (some fans wanted Dubas fired after his first year), but he eventually guided the team to a first-place finish in the West after taking over a team that finished among the depths of the OHL.

He's a fast-rising star in the hockey world for a reason.

The move represents a major shake-up of the Leafs organization, one which has already purged assistant coaches this summer. The hiring also means the same ideas of the past aren't acceptable moving forward, and for the Leafs—and more importantly, the men in charge—to succeed, there will need to be innovation.

Unlike some of the old guard in Toronto, who Brendan Shanahan described as "afraid of certain words and certain information", Dubas comes with an open mind, especially to some of the newer ideas becoming more prominent in the game. Dubas' open embrace of analytics and an appreciation of puck possession many him much like Epstein before him.

And with a background as both a scout and a player agent (to say nothing of his former role as GM), Dubas is much more than a stats geek looking to give his calculator a workout. But despite a legitimate hockey background, Dubas' most obvious asset to the Leafs organization is his knowledge of and willingess to use analytics, something the Leafs have essentially mocked for the last number of years.

“I like to surround myself with people that challenge ideas, that think differently,” Shanahan said after the hire.

The Maple Leafs upper management has become a hive mind over the past few years, with a never-ending stream of executives preaching the same stale ideas. Since Lockout I, the Leafs managed only three playoff wins in nearly a decade of hockey. The failure didn't prompt many radical changes, rather a doubling down of the mistakes of the past. At least now Dubas represents a dissenting opinion, which can only lead to healthier decision making.

“Information is power,” Shanahan said. “It's about eliminating some of the noise and seeing what information works best for you, your team, and the direction you and your team want to go with.

Previously, Dave Nonis said the Leafs were unable to spend their analytics budget because they didn't believe there was anything worthy of spending it on. Shanahan's hiring of Dubas shows the Leafs are willing to at least pretend they don't have the answers to everything—and if years of David Clarksons and Mike Komisareks, dead money on the books, and a lack of playoff games are any indication it's clear the Leafs don't just lack the answers, but they lack any clue whatsoever as how to solve them.

Now the gobs of money at MLSE's disposal can hire an army of interns to track literally everything that goes on during a game to find new efficiencies and new ways to get an upper hand on the competition. As Michael Grange put it: The sky's the limit.

The hiring is a major step forward for the Leafs, but expectations should be tempered. Although Dubas has stated a preference for controlled zone entries verses dump-and-chase tactics (largely because the former produces more chances) and skill on all four lines, the man still running the bench is Randy Carlyle, someone who by the end of year could say nothing other than "compete level" as a reason the Leafs were consistently dominated. Above Carlyle is Nonis, a man who catered the entire 2013 off-season to creating the dream Carlyle roster, bringing in various levels of uselessness and shipping out quality pieces, ending up with a team barely above the lottery.

With Dubas' hiring, however, combined with the dismissal of two executives with ideas that have long since passed, Shanahan is sending a clear message to the old guard: change is coming, get on board or get out.

Best and Worst Contracts of Free Agency Day 1

2014-07-01T20:57:00.001-04:00

By Tuesday night, GMs had spent nearly $500 million on UFAs. As always, a ton of that money was spent recklessly and was used to sign future buyouts. Amidst the chaos there were some reasonable deals and some outright steals.

Here's a recap of some of the worst and best contracts handed out on the first day of free agency.

Worst contracts

Deryk Engelland 3 years, $8.7 million

The Flames were having a pretty good day after nabbing both Jonas Hiller and Mason Raymond for relatively short deals worth wholly appropriate dollars. Then everything went to hell when they gave Engelland the Jeff Finger treatment. Engelland has averaged only 14 minutes a night over his career, so that's nearly $3 million a season for a No. 6 defenceman at best.

Dave Bolland 5 years, $27.5 million

Anytime you can add an injury-prone third-line centre who has never cracked 50 points in a season and is coming off a devastating ankle injury, you have to do it. Especially when it costs you top-6 money. This is a disastrous contract, one the Leafs should be joyous they didn't match. Bolland was replaced as the second-line centre in Chicago by Michal Handzus of all people and he isn't any younger, healthier, or with better linemates than he was then.

Brooks Orpik 5 years, $27.5 million

Soon to be 34, Orpik's best days are well behind him. He's been declining for a number of years and his defensive ability is nothing more than a reputation at this point. That didn't stop the Capitals from committing way too many years and way too much money.

Leo Komarov 4 years, $11.8 million

By acquiring Matt Frattin and signing Komorov, it looks like Dave Nonis is trying to get the band back together (except not the good players he let go). Komorov fills the pest role nicely, but he's offense was pretty non-existent in Toronto (9 points in 42 games), despite spending the majority of his time with Nazem Kadri, Mikhail Grabovski, or Clarke MacArthur. You don't pay guys who can't score that much money. For a comparable price over fewer years the Leafs whiffed by letting Raymond walk to make room for Komorov.

Best contracts

Christian Ehrhoff 1 year, $4 million

A good deal for both team and player. Ehrhoff gets a chance to win and can rebuild some major value by quarterbacking a power play that features some serious firepower. Going back to market next year after a 40-50 point campaign means big money, even if Ehrhoff is 33 by then (just look at Orpik). Pittsburgh gets a top-4 defenceman at a bargain price.

Anton Stralman 5 years, $22.5 million

Next to Ryan McDonagh, Stralman has been the Rangers best defenceman for the past two years. Choosing to re-sign Dan Girardi over Stralman is going to one of Sather's biggest mistakes of this off-season. Stralman hasn't put up many points in recent years in large part because he hasn't been used very much on the power play. What he has done is drive play remarkably well. In years past that hasn't commanded big dollars on the free agent market, and although more teams are using analytics, the Lightning were still able to get themselves a top 4 defenceman for less than what a lot of teams spent on worse players.

Tom Gilbert 2 years, $5.6 million

How many top-pairing defenceman can you sign for less than $3 million a season? Not many, but the Canadiens found themselves one. You can argue that Gilbert is a product of Brian Campbell—despite Gilbert's history of making his team better when he's on the ice—but he could get to play with PK Subban in Montreal, which is like an even better Campbell. Gilbert worked out astoundingly well for Florida and he will work out just as well for Montreal.

Mark Fayne 4 years, $14 million

Another top-pairing defenceman who went cheap. Fayne played shutdown minutes for the Devils, and although Peter DeBoer's low-event system may have inflated Fayne's possession numbers, it's pretty rare for a guy getting tough minutes to see his team do better when he's on the ice. He's young enough and a good enough puck mover that the Oilers are still getting Fayne's prime and can let another team take his decline four years down the road.

Leafs Off-Season Game Plan: Goalies

2014-06-17T21:29:00.000-04:00

The Leafs finished last season ninth in team save percentage, meaning after years of wandering in the wilderness they have finally solved their goaltending problem. But nothing is simple in Toronto and even the team's biggest strength comes with plenty of tough questions.

Key Objectives

Figure out what to do with James Reimer

A season that started so promising for Reimer ended disastrously, with the former No. 1 starter getting shelled over the final few months of the season, prompting Jonathan Bernier to rush back from injury and play poorly himself. Reimer ended the season with a .911 save percentage, which is actually the fourth best by a Toronto netminder since Lockout I. Two of the three better seasons were posted by Reimer, and for as good as Bernier was last year, his overall save percentage was still lower than Reimer's franchise record setting mark of .924 set in 2012-13.

Despite Reimer's poor performance last season, the majority of the blame lies with the penalty kill. Reimer posted a terrible save percentage on the penalty kill—something that tends of fluctuate like crazy from year to year due to the small sample size, and one that's usually awful behind Toronto penalty killers—but was generally decent at even strength. His .924 save percentage at even strength was 33rd out of 68 goalies with at least 500 minutes played, a higher mark than guys like Jonas Hiller, Cory Schneider, Jaroslav Halak, Ryan Miller, Marc-Andre Fleury, and Antti Niemi. Reimer wasn't his best last season, but he is not a problem for the Leafs.

Unfortunately, his contract status is a bit of a problem. He's an RFA and should be due a bump on his $1.8 million salary. He also wants to be a No. 1 goalie, something he won't be in Toronto with Bernier entrenched as the guy. He's a UFA next year, so signing him to a 1-year deal means you lose him for nothing at year's end.

So if the Leafs decide Reimer's modest salary is too much (there are holes to fill at both forward and defence, you know) and try to move him in a trade they face a flooded market and the reality that goalies don't tend to fetch much in trades during the best years. Coming off the season he had I think getting back a second-round pick is probably his maximum value. So do the Leafs pull the trigger? They better make the right choice...

Determine if Jonathan Bernier can play a full season

... because Bernier has yet to prove he can handle a full season's workload. He was excellent last season, but only got into 55 games thanks to a late season injury. The maximum amount of games he has played across any level, dating back to when he was 15, is 58 games (in the AHL in 2009-10). Accordingly, the Leafs can't just punt the backup position because they probably need a competent goalie for 20-30 games, maybe even more if Bernier can't stay healthy.

That's one reason why the Leafs should seriously consider keeping Reimer, although it seems like a foregone conclusion at this point that he's leaving. Otherwise, the Leafs need to spend some money to get a capable backup, maybe even one who can play in a bit of a platoon (with the bigger proportion of starts going to Bernier, of course).

Free agents

UFAs

Drew MacIntyre

He did a real nice job for the Marlies this season, backstopping them to a surprise berth in the conference final. Too bad he's 30 years old and has only six career NHL games. Trusting him with the backup job would be a blind leap of faith.

RFAs

James Reimer

Among goalies with at least 3000 even-strength minutes over the last four years, Reimer's even-strength save percentage is 20th out of 51 goalies. He isn't elite, but he's slightly above average. Actually, his .926 save percentage is tied with Jonathan Quick over that span. In all likelihood he's gone, and it'll be sad to see him go. But it will at least continue a trend of the Leafs running good players out of town. What a team.

Prospects

Garret Sparks

Sparks got into 21 games for the Marlies last season and played decently. He should get more starts next season to gain experience. He's only 20, so don't expect him to be suiting up in a Leafs uniform for at least a few years.

Targets

UFAs

Thomas Greiss

Among goalies with at least 1000 minutes played at even-strength last season, Greiss had the third highest save percentage at .939, better than everyone except Tuukka Rask and Josh Harding. It's not a fluke either. Over the past three seasons (amounting to over 2000 even-strength minutes), the only netminder who has stopped a higher proportion of shots at even strength is Rask. He's only faced about 1000 shots in his career, however, and goaltender performance tends to stabilize around 3000 shots, so small(ish) sample size warning should apply (as they should with most backups). If you're looking for a backup who could push his way into a platoon, it's Greiss. But he's probably worth closer to $1.5 or maybe even $2 million.

Justin Peters

Bad in 2010-11, good in 2011-12. Bad in 2012-13, good in 2013-14. By the exact science of one year on, one year off, Peters is due for a bad year. He's faced about 2000 shots in his career and has a .904 save percentage. You could certainly find worse, but he's hardly ideal. He should be easy to sign for under $1 million, however, and with the amount of holes elsewhere on the roster (and the large, immovable contracts) saving hundreds of thousands on a goalie might be a necessity.

Al Montoya

Montoya is remarkably similar to Peters, although he's done so in a bit of a smaller sample (1400 shots to 2000). He's coming off a strong year in which he should have poached more starts from Ondrej Pavelec but he's a risky bet to repeat last year's .920 save percentage (only .923 at even-strength, 36th out of 68 goalies with more than 500 minutes).

Martin Brodeur

Brodeur probably should have retired a few seasons ago at this point. He hasn't been better than average in about five years, although he did have a renaissance playoffs in 2009 and was fine in the Devils cup run in 2012. Even worse, he squawked all year long about platooning with Schneider, even though Schneider was far superior and the excess games Brodeur started probably cost the Devils a playoff spot.

Sample Roster via Cap Geek

Leafs Off-Season Game Plan: Forwards

2014-06-16T08:00:00.000-04:00

The Maple Leafs problem isn't scoring goals, it's keeping them out. But after being a top-10 team in goals scored from 2011-2013, the Leafs were middle of the pack last season suggesting defence isn't the only area in need of an upgrade.

The Leafs rely heavily on Phil Kessel and James van Riemsdyk and many nights live and die with their power play because apart from those two first liners they have trouble generating chances at even strength. A total revamp of the defence is the first priority this off-season but so too is creating a more balanced attack up front. Thankfully, the forwards need more of a tweak than a gut job.

Key Objectives

Get a better balance between one-dimensional scorers and two-way players

The Leafs biggest problem is their inability to play defence. That starts from the backend—which is why a major overhaul is needed there—but a distinct lack of two-way forwards also compounds the problem.

Many point to Phil Kessel's one-dimensional play as a huge problem for the team, but the reality is Kessel has a special skill set that is incredibly hard to acquire—that is, filling the net with pucks—and instead of nitpicking at his deficiencies the Leafs need to better surround him with players that can complement his weaknesses. That means a strong two-way centre, which Tyler Bozak absolutely is not. It also means creating a better balance on the subsequent lines. Both Nazem Kadri and Joffrey Lupul are fine in a second line scoring role, but both leave much to be desired defensively. It makes more sense to keep Kadri, who is younger, cheaper, and has a higher ceiling, and seeing if trading Lupul can fill a hole elsewhere.

Improve down the middle

Fewer words were printed for War and Peace than what has been spilled outlining why Bozak is a fraud of a No. 1 centre. He doesn't really have chemistry with Kessel, his big year is not the new normal, and he's not good defensively. The Leafs are in desperate need for a No. 1 centre.

Kadri earned sky-high expectations after a breakout season following the lockout. He didn't fulfill those lofty expectations, although they were always completely unrealistic. Instead, he had a solid season befitting of the second line minutes he received. He still deserves more than a fleeting audition to play with Kessel, because he actually played pretty well on the top line in his brief stint. His name has popped up in trade rumours but he is definitely not the problem in Toronto.

Besides Kadri the Leafs could use three new centres from the ones that were on last year's opening night roster. That's crazy to expect in one off-season, so finding someone to bump Bozak down in the lineup and promoting Peter Holland is probably the easier fix.

Create a useable fourth line

The Leafs had one of the least used fourth lines in the league last season, mainly because Randy Carlyle insisted on dressing useless players like Colton Orr and Frazer McLaren. Creating a line that can skate and chip in the odd goal, not one whose only contribution is barely clearing the line after getting filled in for two straight minutes, would have a ripple effect throughout the rest of the lineup. It would keep the top lines fresher throughout the season and could even be used for tougher defensive assignments like Chicago does with its fourth line. But that means finding players who can play, and as long as a face puncher patrols the ice the fourth line will be utterly useless.

Free agents

UFAs

Dave Bolland

He's looking for both money and term. He's got a long list of injuries over his career, the most recent of which could erode his already suspect skating ability. He's never cracked 50 points in a season. I like Bolland. I really do. But everything says run away from this contract.

Troy Bodie

A nice surprise in his first season in Toronto. Bodie was a deceptively quick skater, despite looking completely ugly in the process, and was good on the forecheck. You could do worse on the fourth line, but he's probably a better 13th forward.

Nikolai Kulemin

His 30-goal season seems like a millennium ago and it altered people's perception of what Kulemin should be. He's a quality defensive forward who plays heavy and has a history of producing in a second-line role but he's not a real goal scorer. The Leafs are desperate for two-way forwards and letting Kulemin walk seems a little counter-productive when your team is a disaster defensively, but he probably can't produce enough offense at this point to justify being retained.

Jay McClement

McClement earned a reputation as a penalty killing Rainman after logging a ton of short-handed minutes last season and transforming a league worst penalty kill into one of the best. Too bad he was pretty bad at even strength, in part because he was carrying around Colton Orr and Frazer McLaren. Then this past season he logged his customary big penalty kill minutes and the Leafs were back near the bottom of the league. He's not good enough at even strength and if he's not really a short-handed wizard he's wasting a roster spot.

Mason Raymond

By far Nonis' best signing, Raymond was a great return on investment (45 points for $1 million). He can fit on both the second and third line pretty well and has definitely earned himself a raise. Whether the Leafs can afford that raise is entirely different. If he's willing to stay for somewhere in the $3 million range over 3 seasons he would be nice to have back.

Trevor Smith

If he wants to stick around for a little bit of money to be the 13th forward he's more than welcome to.

RFAs

Spencer Abbott

Abbott scored 69 points in 64 games for the Marlies and has earned a long look in training camp at the very least. He's the antithesis of a Carlyle player, so the cards are stacked against him. In all likelihood he starts next season in the AHL but should be one of the first call ups.

Jamie Devane

Face punchers need not apply.

Prospects

Peter Holland

It's painfully clear that Holland is an NHLer. He led the Marlies in playoff scoring with 15 points in 11 games and looks like he could one day be a bit of a two-way beast. He's been described as a puck possession player by Steve Spott and when given minutes and real linemates during his stint in the NHL he certainly looked like he belonged. Slotting him as the fourth line centre and entrusting that (face-puncher-less trio) with about 10 minutes a night would have a nice ripple effect throughout the lineup and make the Leafs a harder team to play against.

Jerry D'Amigo

He's never scored all that much at the AHL level, so his ceiling is not much higher than a fourth liner, but he showed he is deserving of a chance after being sent back down to the Marlies late in the year. He's good on the forecheck and has logged plenty of penalty killing minutes down in the minors. He could help fill out a cheap and productive fourth line.

Carter Ashton

Trying to make an impression on Carlyle got Ashton's nose broken a couple times last season. He's not a fighter and shouldn't have to drop the gloves to see his name pencilled in every night. He only scored three points in 32 games with the Leafs, but was only getting around 6 minutes a night, often beside a goon (or two) and Jay McClement. He scored a bit for the Marlies when he was sent back down and could hold his own on the fourth line next season.

Targets

UFAs

Paul Stastny

The UFA market is barren for centres, with Stastny being the only player capable of quality first line minutes. There are a smattering of second line centres available, but most are third and fourth line players. That's not unusual as teams are loath to give up legitimate centres as it is probably the most important position on the team.

Signing Stastny would immediately transform the Toronto top-6, giving them a true playmaking centre to go with Kessel, and one with a defensive conscience to boot (not just a phony defensive reputation like the one that has somehow stuck to Bozak). It would also push Bozak further down to a line he's better suited on.

There are probably 20 other teams interested in Stastny, so to sign him it will probably take a seven-year commitment worth at least $7 million a season.

Mike Cammalleri

He's a bit of an injury risk, especially now that he's creeping past 30, but Cammalleri has been pretty productive over the past three seasons, averaging a 28-goal pace over 82 games. He also did a great job of driving play last year despite being used in a defensive role, although that can partially be explained by playing with underrated Corsi savant Mikael Backlund.

Radim Vrbata

Not including the lockout, Vrbata has averaged 51 points a season, certainly a respectable amount for a second liner. He hasn't been used in a pure defensive role in the desert, but he's handled fairly tough competition and held his own. He's the type of two-way forward that could complement Kadri well.

Daniel Winnik

Used primarily in a defensive role in Anaheim, he would make an ideal third liner. Although you wouldn't want him playing any higher in the lineup than that, he did chip in a nice amount of offence last year.

Trades

Joe Thornton

He's the dream centre to play in between Kessel and van Riemsdyk, even if he may be a bit old. Unfortunately, he's probably looking for a contender to win a Cup before he retires and barely missing out on the draft lottery doesn't really scream contender.

Ryan O'Reilly

The Avalanche need to qualify O'Reilly this off-season for $6.5 million. With Stastny a free agent and Nathan MacKinnon looking like a stud down the middle maybe the Avalanche balk at the thought and try to deal O'Reilly to plug some holes and use that money elsewhere. He's a strong defensive centre who took only one penalty all season despite facing the opposition's best players every night. He's also a pretty nifty playmaker who could look nice between Kessel and van Riemsdyk. I'm a strong advocate for keeping Jake Gardiner but if he's part of a package for a player like Reilly you certainly have to think.

James Neal

With the Penguins looking to improve their depth and clear some cap space there are rumours that James Neal is being dangled. The Maple Leafs have reportedly checked in on Neal. It's not hard to see why. He plays a strong, physical game and has scored 88 goals over the past three seasons, fifth most of any player. He's under contract for four more seasons at a very reasonable $5 million and he's been a positive possession player throughout his career (although many of those seasons have come alongside Evgeni Malkin).

Trade Bait

Tyler Bozak

If you can cash in on Bozak's big year you have to do it. It was percentages fueled and he's really the same old Bozak who has always leeched off Kessel. Unbelievably, Bozak is reportedly one of four untouchable players. I hate this team.

Joffrey Lupul

22 goals and 44 points is completely respectable for a second liner, especially in only 69 games. It felt a little disappointing after Lupul dominated in the two years prior, scoring 85 points in 82 games. Realistically, Lupul is a 25-goal, 50-point player, and there is value to that. He has some chemistry with Nazem Kadri and makes a dangerous second line, but he's pretty one-dimensional and the Leafs have a lot of those forwards. He should be dangled for defensive help. Maybe the Leafs revisit talks with Florida for Dmitry Kulikov.

Sample Roster via Capgeek

Leafs Off-Season Game Plan: Defence

2014-06-14T13:23:00.000-04:00

Despite great goaltending, the Leafs allowed the fifth most goals in the league last season. Sadly, that isn't surprising. The Leafs haven't been better than 18th in goals allowed since the start of Lockout I.

Finally, they have some goaltending, so the bulk of the work will come in revamping the defence (and hopefully firing Randy Carlyle). It won't be easy, but there are plenty of options out there, many of which don't include trading Jake Gardiner.

Key Objectives

Find a tough-minutes eating defenceman

The Leafs need at least one top-4 defenceman, although realistically they could probably use two. The problem is it's hard enough to find one quality top-4 defenceman. More importantly, the Leafs need one who can take on tough defensive assignments and free up Dion Phaneuf for some more offensive minutes, because asking Phaneuf to play in an extreme defensive role like Zdeno Chara or Shea Weber isn't working.

Increase mobility from the backend

Between Paul Ranger, Mark Fraser, and Tim Gleason it's amazing the Leafs ever moved the puck out of their own zone. Strong mobility from the backend is able to neutralize a forecheck and start the transition back to offence in a hurry. The game has changed from the days when a group of bruisers comprised a stout defence. Saying that...

Avoid Douglas Murray and Brooks Orpik at all costs

This one is hard because you know Dave Nonis is waiting to blow out the market for both these guys, despite the fact that both haven't lived up to their defensive reputation in years. Adding a couple more contractual anchors that move like boat anchors is a sure-fire way to make sure the Leafs remain one of the worst defensive squads in the league.

Buyout Tim Gleason

It was a gamble hoping Gleason could regain his shutdown form after two straight down(right ugly) seasons and it didn't work out. Gleason started off in Toronto decently enough, playing a physical game that convinced Carlyle to give him plenty of defensive zone starts, freeing up Phaneuf for less heavy minutes in the process. It didn't last, and over the last 20 games of the season Gleason was more often than not playing less than 15 minutes a game. He isn't worth anywhere close to his $4 million cap hit. Buying him out would free up a little over $3 million in savings this season and over $2 million next season. Afterwards the Leafs would only have two years of dead money at $1.33 million a year.

Free agents

UFAs

Paul Ranger

Signing Ranger to a one-year deal for $1 million was a worthwhile gamble to see if the former top-pairing defenceman could slide back into a top-4 minutes role four years after his last NHL game. It didn't work and it's highly unlikely that Ranger will be back.

TJ Brennan

It's amazing that the worst defensive unit in the league couldn't at least give an audition to the AHL's best defenceman. Brennan may have his shortcomings, but he can move the puck and has a rocket of a shot. He scored 72 points in 76 games for the Marlies this season, finishing fourth in league scoring. At the very least he could have taken Phaneuf's minutes on the power play and allowed the captain to have some more gas in the tank for the tough minutes Carlyle buries him under.

Unfortunately, a small, offense-first defenceman was never going to get a shot with Carlyle, especially not with Jake Gardiner and Morgan Rielly already in the line-up, which is a shame because it's hard to believe Brennan would have made the Leafs any worse. And for all his perceived defensive shortcomings, Marlies coach Steve Spott told Michael Traikos that he has "no problems with his defensive game." Brennan will understandably be looking for a team willing to give him a real opportunity to play in the NHL, and that won't be Toronto.

RFAs

Cody Franson

One of Nonis' better moves was not caving in to Franson's contract demands after one quality season, instead forcing him to take a below-market one-year deal to prove it wasn't a shortened season fluke. Points-wise I'm not sure it was a fluke, but this year Franson proved he couldn't really handle top-4 minutes defensively. Instead, it looks like he's the same player he was in Nashville: a bottom-pairing, soft-minutes, power-play specialist, albeit one who can hit. It would be wise to trade Franson now and let someone else pay him the $4 million he seeks.

Prospects

Stuart Percy

A first-round pick from a couple years ago, Percy just finished his first full season in the AHL. He might need a little more seasoning, and hopefully some bigger and more important minutes, but he's not far away from making a contribution.

Petter Granberg

Granberg is one of the few right-handed defencemen the Leafs have, which may become doubly important if Franson is dealt this off-season. He's been described as Carl Gunnarsson with more size and physicality. He's a safe, stay-at-home defender and could be one of the first call ups for Toronto or perhaps the seventh defenceman.

Andrew MacWilliam

Once described as "the future Mark Fraser". Do not want.

Targets

UFAs

Mark Fayne

At 27, Fayne is one of the younger free agents this year and he's also been used in a shutdown role for the past three seasons—and has done an excellent job in that role. He's mobile and can move the puck. He hasn't put up many points in his career, which might work in Toronto's favour and depress his cap hit. He's the ideal candidate to be used in a defensive role—say with Carl Gunnarsson—thus leaving more offensive minutes for Phaneuf, who could then be paired with Gardiner, someone who moves the puck better than Gunnarsson. It's always hard to predict what guys will go for in free agency, but maybe Fayne can be had for somewhere around $3.25-$3.5 million a season.

Tom Gilbert

He's made his team better when he's on the ice pretty much everywhere he goes, although he also for some reason has become a whipping boy in a few of those stops (looking at you, Edmonton). He just finished a season playing top line minutes with Brian Campbell, but Campbell isn't coming with him from Florida. Still, he would be a worthwhile pickup, although he won't be signing for $900,000 again.

Ron Hainsey

Unspectacular, yet sturdy. Registered a nice season after taking a cheap one-year deal after being overpaid in his first trip to unrestricted free agency. He's 33 and could be after his last multi-year contract that stretches past three years which is a little off-putting. At the right price and term, he's a decent option as a second-pairing guy. Too bad the right price and term rarely apply to unrestricted free agency.

Dan Boyle

Although his rights belong to the New York Islanders at this point, there is no guarantee Boyle signs there. He's looking for a two-year deal and according to Darren Dreger has the Maple Leafs high on his list. Although Marc-Edouard Vlasic snatched the shutdown role from Boyle, the veteran still led the team in ice time, thanks to huge power play minutes. He's a definite upgrade for the Leafs and could be a solid acquisition if the Leafs are able to find a cheaper shutdown defender (like Fayne).

Anton Stralman

Contract negotiations with Dan Girardi received more media attention, but Stralman was quietly one of the Rangers better defenceman and his loss could really be felt next season. He's received some easier minutes playing behind Girardi and Ryan McDonagh but has pushed the play forward at a ridiculous pace; the Rangers over the last two seasons have controlled over 56% of all shot attempts with Stralman on the ice. The next best Ranger defender is McDonagh at 53%.

Matt Niskanen

He stepped up big time with Kris Letang's absence for most of this season. He logged over 21 minutes a night, a career high, and notched 46 points, another career high. He's looking at pretty big money and that means the Leafs will have a harder time adding a top-flight centre and another top-4 defenceman. He'd be a solid addition but the Leafs have too little cap space and too many holes to fill to make Niskanen their premier signing.

Stephane Robidas

Breaking your leg twice in your contract year isn't the best way to build value, so there might be a slight discount for Robidas. He's been used primarily as a shutdown defender in his career and has done a pretty good job in that role. Like Boyle, he's also 37, which usually means injuries are a concern, although apart from last year he has been very durable throughout his career.

Trades

Dmitry Kulikov

According to Elliotte Friedman, the Leafs and Panthers came incredibly close to pulling off a trade for Kulikov, with one of the teams backing out. It's entirely possible the two revisit the talks. Florida has a lot of young talent down the middle and could use some offense on the wing to complement it. Maybe Joffrey Lupul is a piece they would be interested in.

Kulikov has been a top-4 defenceman so far in his career, although he's been more of a No. 4 and hasn't been used on a shutdown pair. His development has stalled a bit in Florida and a change of scenery could be helpful. However, the last two seasons he has been a positive possession player.

Kevin Bieksa

Alex Edler is apparently going nowhere, which is a shame for the Leafs because he's been a strong defender throughout his career (despite what his ugly plus/minus numbers suggested last year). But maybe that means Bieksa is the defenceman that is dealt out of Vancouver as it seems likely the team is prepared for a shakeup and they have a glut of defencemen. Bieksa is a hardnosed player who has been a strong possession player throughout his career despite getting hard defensive assignments.

Christian Ehrhoff

His contract lasts forever, but his cap hit is quite manageable at $4 million. Plus, thanks to the cap recapture penalty it is the Sabres that would feel the sting should Ehrhoff retire early. If Ehrhoff retires in the summer of 2018, once the actual salary he is being paid drops to $1 million, the Sabres would face a cap penalty of $3.33 million a season while the Leafs get off free.

It's hard to look good on an awful Sabres roster but he makes them much better when he's on the ice and would add a quality puck-moving element to the Leafs defence. He's still capable of chipping in around 30-40 points a season and can play on both special teams units.

Sample Roster via Cap Geek

What We Learned from the Conference Finals

2014-06-03T21:50:00.000-04:00

#493968581 / gettyimages.com

We're only a few weeks away from crowning this year's Stanley Cup champion and we have learned so much on this journey.

Centre depth is important

- Amazing that Chicago won a Stanley Cup and made another conference final with Michal Handzus as their No. 2 centre. Handzus looked like the 37-year-old man he was during the post-season. The Hawks conceded nearly 64% of all even-strength shot attempts with Handzus on the ice and were outscored 12-3. Remember, this is the guy Dave Bolland couldn't beat out for ice time at the end of last season. Worth the money, right? Mikhail Grabovski is someone who would have looked great in that spot for the Hawks, but being so tight to the cap they couldn't come close to affording his relatively modest contract in the off-season. Have to believe that's a spot the Hawks try to upgrade this off-season.

Dynasties always last forever, right?

- The Hawks and the Kings look like they are locked in as the teams to beat in the West for a long time. Both Jonathan Toews and Anze Kopitar might be the two best non-Crosby centres in the league and both teams are deep throughout the lineup. Things can change pretty quickly, though. The Kings have a pretty thin system thanks to a few years of making major acquisitions and the Hawks have to re-sign Toews and Patrick Kane soon, which could make for some interesting cap casualties. It looks bleak right now for the rest of the West but neither team is flawless.

Don't sign goalies to huge contracts unless named Henrik or Tuukka

- Speaking of which... The Western Conference Final definitely wasn't a ringing endorsement for long-term goalie contracts. Neither Corey Crawford nor Jonathan Quick could stop much of anything. Quick's awful .889 save percentage looked like vintage Hasek next to Crawford's ugly .878 save percentage. Woof. Crawford's $6 million a year extension doesn't kick in until next season and then lasts until 2020; Quick is signed until 2023.

Seriously, don't do it

- Not sure there is a player who has forged a phony reputation on one big year better than Quick. He's only been decidedly above average in one season with the Kings, which just so happened to be the year they won the Cup and he was a brick wall. Thanks to that year—which earned him his big money deal—he's counted among the best in the league. Except over the last five years his save percentage is .915. That's 26th out of goalies who have appeared in at least 50 games. James Reimer—who is pretty much being run out of Toronto—has a .914 save percentage over that span. Before you could at least say Quick brought it in the playoffs, but I'm not sure that's the case anymore.

Henrik deserves his money and has his chance to prove it

- Kings are heading into the Stanley Cup Final as big time favourites against the Rangers, and while from the net out they are much better than the Rangers, Hank is the big equalizer. If Quick keeps posting save percentages hovering around .900 and Lundqvist provides his standard .920+ the difference in shot differential won't be as pronounced and the Rangers have more than a chance.

Habs are hateable, but deserve a moment of respect

- As much as I hate them, you have to respect the effort by the Montreal Canadiens. Losing their No. 1 goalie in the first game, yet still giving New York everything they had and making the series plenty interesting. Not many people gave Montreal a shot after Price went down, but they definitely caused a scare. Okay, enough of that good will.

The most hateable player on the other team is probably his fans' most beloved

- Brendan Gallagher is quickly approaching Brad Marchand levels of ratiness. If those two ever collide I'm pretty sure they will explode and a million Ken Linsemans will scurry away. I'm sure if you're a Canadiens fan he's amazing, but the rest of the world hates him.

The best tears

- Are Habs tears.

Will Bolland be Leaf for Life?

2014-05-27T20:26:00.000-04:00

Dave Bolland wants to be a Leaf for life, and a fellow Mimico boy might help make it happen.

“I’d like to get him signed,” Brendan Shanahan told the Toronto Sun a few weeks ago. “He’s the type of player I like, the type of player we need."

There's a lot to like about Bolland. He comes with a winning pedigree, grit, leadership, and the type of blue collar work ethic that plays well with the Toronto crowd. He's the type of player that does the little things that help a team win. But that doesn't mean the Leafs should break the bank to keep him.

According to Steve Simmons, the Leafs don't want to pay Bolland any more than the $4.2 million a season they are paying Tyler Bozak. That means there's a disconnect between the two camps, because Darren Dreger reported at the end of February that Bolland could be looking for as much as $5 million a year, and maybe more.

With close to $49 million already committed to only 12 players next season, giving Bolland anything more than $4 million a year means the Leafs view him as a core piece, rather than a complementary one, like he was in Chicago.

That would be a major mistake.

At the start of his first season in Toronto, Bolland was excellent, scoring 10 points in his first 15 games. Then he suffered a serious ankle injury thanks to an errant skate blade and finished the year a ghost of the player he was at the beginning of the year. Bolland admitted he rushed back from the injury, but it's entirely possible that even after a full off-season to heal, Bolland will never be the same player he was before the injury. That's an important consideration, because even before the injury he was only good enough to be a bottom-6 complementary player. He has never been a top-6 core forward.

In his career Bolland has only once cracked 40 points and has never hit 20 goals. He's never played in a full season, and has only twice played more than 65 games in a single year.

In his last year in Chicago, Bolland spent most of his time between Patrick Kane and Patrick Sharp, yet only managed 14 points in 35 games. And those are two premier wingers Bolland had at his disposal. Expecting Bolland to get anywhere close to his career high of 47 points—which is basically a minimum for a second line centre—with the Leafs, six years after he set that mark, is unrealistic.

Bolland is a checking centre. Nothing more. You don't pay checking centres big money over a long-term contract.

Even more concerning, the Blackhawks were under siege with Bolland on the ice in 2012-13. When Bolland was with either Sharp or Kane at even strength, the Blackhawks allowed the opposition to take over 55% of all shot attempts. When Kane and Sharp were away from Bolland the ice shifted and it was the Hawks who enjoyed over 55% of all shot attempts. That 10% swing is the difference in the Blackhawks controlling the play like, well, the Blackhawks, and the Blackhawks controlling the play as well as the Maple Leafs.

That isn't a one-season anomaly either. With Bolland on the ice his team hasn't generated more than 50% of all even strength shot attempts since 2009-10. The goals scored follows a similar pattern; with Bolland on the ice his team has allowed close to 60% of all even strength goals in each of the past three seasons.

The perception may be that Bolland is an elite shutdown centre, but the reality is he hasn't lived up to that reputation in at least three years. Unless he's willing to take a substantial discount to stay in Toronto, the Leafs are better off letting him be someone else's core piece.

What We Learned from the Second Round

2014-05-17T12:00:00.000-04:00

A team of destiny Montreal Canadiens are one round from the Stanley Cup Final. Really, hockey gods? This is how you treat me after a life devoted to hockey? I am a broken man, please do not add to my sorrow.

Sorry, loudly questioning my faith in humanity over here. So, what did we learn from the second round?

Teemu Forever

It's kind of hard to believe that Teemu Selanne has played his last NHL game. He's been a treat to watch since his first broke into the league and it's going to be weird seeing the Ducks start next season without him. I'm pretty sure I'd be okay with him playing another 10 years. Thankfully, another aging wonder—Jaromir Jagr—probably will play for another decade.

Dean Lombardi knows how to swing a deadline deal

Two years ago Lombardi swiped Jeff Carter from the Columbus Blue Jackets for a relatively small sum and this year he went back to the scene of the crime to pluck Marian Gaborik out of Ohio. Over the last seven seasons only three players have been able to drive on-ice shooting percentage better than Gaborik (two of them are Sidney Crosby and Steven Stamkos, the other is Alex Tanguay, surprisingly), so it shouldn't be too shocking that a team that can outshoot its opponents with ease is finally converting so many more of those shots into goals with Gaborik on the ice. Like Carter before him, Gaborik has strengthened the top-6 and bumped some guys down in the lineup into roles they are better suited for.

Amazingly, Bryan Bickell is worth the money

Not really, because that contract is Bad with a capital B. But Bickell is having another productive playoffs, just like the one he had last year that made him rich. He's fifth on the team in playoff scoring with six goals and nine points in 12 games. Four of those goals came in the last round against Minnesota and his play poses a very interesting question: if a guy is a dud in the regular season but brings it in the playoffs, is a bad contract worth it? It's much easier for a perennial contender like the Hawks to live with the bad deal during the regular season because they are so deep they can afford to waste $4 million on an anchor, so long as that anchor turns it on come April.

The Wild are a team on the rise

One of the main reasons Zach Parise and Ryan Suter decided to sign in Minnesota was because an influx of young talent was just about to make the club. That takes a lot of pressure off the two high-priced vets to carry the team, and it has become evident this post-season that a lot of the Wild's youth have emerged. Adding Charlie Coyle, Mikael Granlund, Jared Spurgeon, Jonas Brodin, and Nino Niederreiter to Parise and Suter make the Wild much more dangerous than they have been in years. The Wild weren't anything special over the regular season, but hanging with the defending champs (and even dominating them at times) show the team is ready to take a great leap forward.

Even if you have Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin you still can't punt the rest of the roster

It always amazes me when people criticise the best players on a team for not doing more when the rest of the roster can't do anything. When Crosby or Malkin fail to rescue the Penguins and carry the team on their shoulders it is somehow an indictment against the two, rather than an example of how woefully thin the team is behind them. Maybe the days of assuming Crosby can turn the Lee Stempniaks of the world into first liners should be over. It's not like it takes much money to fill out the bottom of a roster either; the Leafs snagged Mason Raymond for $1 million and the Panthers did likewise with Brad Boyes. Surely, those two are more capable than someone like Craig Adams or Tanner Glass.

Alain Vigneault is making Mike Gillis look very stupid

The difference between Vigneault and his replacement, John Tortorella, couldn't have been more pronounced in their first seasons in their new locales. Vigneault has the Rangers on the cusp of the Stanley Cup Final, while Tortorella was a nightmare in Vancouver, getting himself fired after one miserable season and essentially breaking Roberto Luongo and getting him traded in the process. Oh, and he also wanted to buyout Alex Burrows, who by the way has scored 135 (*Sedin-created) goals since 2008-09, the 36th highest amount in that time.

Maybe trading under-25 superstars isn't a smart thing

Guys who can score 30 goals aren't easy to come by, so when you trade one who is barely older than 20 you better be right or else it can haunt you for a long time. At this point the Bruins have traded two, and they seemed to manage fine without Phil Kessel, but I'm not sure the same will be said about Seguin. He's already a beast and it was clear against Montreal that the Bruins needed more speed and scoring in the lineup. Hey, but he partied too much, right. No other Bruins player has been known to do that...

PK Subban is awesome

If you don't think so you take hockey way too seriously.

#FancyStats Q+A with Eric Tulsky

2014-05-03T08:09:00.000-04:00

Noted advanced stats pioneer Eric Tulsky killed some time on Twitter recently with a helpful Q+A on #FancyStats in hockey. Links to articles with more detailed information on the topic in question are provided for those looking for more information than is available in 140 characters.

This is not the first time Tulsky has taken the time to explain advanced stats concepts in more detail to his followers, and a previous Q+A was collected by other noted advanced stats enthusiast Tyler Dellow.

What We Learned from the Opening Round

2014-05-01T15:08:00.003-04:00

#487558253 / gettyimages.com

One of the most exciting opening rounds of playoff hockey in recent years is sadly over, and the inevitable letdown of round two begins tonight.

What did we learn from the opening round?

The Habs are a playoff juggernaut...

...at least when playing against an AHL-quality backup goalie and that guy's backup. The Habs were the only team to sweep in the opening round, and against a higher ranked seed no less, yet they aren't really world beaters. The drop off between Ben Bishop and Anders Lindback and Kristers Gudlevskis was huge and Montreal took full advantage. Not that anyone outside of Quebec is really viewing them as anything more than the underdog against the Bruins, but if there's one team the Bruins seem to have some trouble with (read: don't steamroll), it's the Habs. They are their kryptonite.

The Sharks are still the Sharks

Unbelievably, they did it again. No, not blow a playoff series in horrific fashion. Sucker us all in to believing they were Stanley Cup bound. Despite the Sharks' near 10-year history of being considered a Cup contender only to bow out of the playoffs early, they were still trendy picks to make it out of a tough Western Conference and vie for their first Stanley Cup. Amazing that they can continually tantalize people with their regular season dominance and then suddenly lose it all at the most inopportune moments. I have wrote disparaging remarks about the Sharks for years and shrugged off everything Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau have accomplished, yet I too jumped on the bandwagon and had them pegged for glory. When will we learn?

The Blues are not the new Sharks

Even though the Sharks are still the Sharks, the Blues could be making a case that they are deserving of the chokers mantle. The Blues of the 90s/early-2000s were always a great regular season team that could never hack it in the playoffs, and some might say the new iteration of the Blues are the same. But it's hard to pinpoint what, if anything, is really wrong with the Blues. Apart from being blasted in Game 6, the Blues fought the Hawks about as tight as you can through the first five games. Only one contest was decided by more than a goal and that was won 2-0 by the Hawks thanks to an empty netter. The Blues will have to decide what to do with Ryan Miller (who certainly didn't shine in the playoffs, or the last handful of games in the regular season), but other than maybe looking for a little more offense, the Blues don't really have to make any major changes and can still be considered contenders next year. There's no shame in losing to the Hawks, the only shame is if you blow up a good team because of it.

Nathan MacKinnon has arrived

MacKinnon's 63 points in the regular season were the third most by a teenage rookie in the past decade, behind only Patrick Kane (72) and Sidney Crosby (102). He also grew strong as the season progressed, with 39 points in 43 games after the new year. In the playoffs he really took over, amassing 10 points in seven games—all of which came in three multi-point binges.

Pittsburgh is in trouble

The Pens' lack of depth is a real problem, as any time Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin aren't carrying the team there is a very real chance anyone can dominate Pittsburgh. The Blue Jackets don't have a lot of high-end talent, but there is enough decent players on every line that the Penguins looked at one point like they were going to add another team to the list of playoff chokers. Against teams with both depth and high-end talent—I'd say New York qualifies, and Boston definitely does—the Penguins are ripe for an upset. That isn't even considering Marc-Andre Fleury's penchant for a meltdown.

The Conference Final could be a Gary Bettman dream

The heavy favourites in the second round are Chicago and Boston, and you should probably give LA the edge over Anaheim, especially because the Ducks are so banged up and have questionable goaltending. That's three huge US markets poised to make the Conference Finals, and then you get either New York (huge US market) or Pittsburgh (highlighted by the league's poster boy). Gary Bettman is happy right now.

Leafs to Hire Brendan Shanahan as President

2014-04-10T20:18:00.003-04:00

Heads have yet to roll in Toronto after another monumental collapse, but Tim Leiweke is about to make the first major change, hiring Brendan Shanahan as president.

Damien Cox of the Toronto Star broke the news, and while he didn't report the exact details of Shanahan's role, explained that it will extend beyond over-seeing general manager Dave Nonis and the hockey department.

It's hard to tell whether Shanahan's hiring will be positive or negative for the Leafs. He has no experience as an executive, instead handing out discipline for the league. It's also hard not to view ex-players taking over managerial roles at least a little skeptically as they are usually brought in by organizations to distract fans from the horror show on the ice (think about Pat LaFontaine in Buffalo and Trevor Linden in Vancouver). Plenty of ex-players have succeeded as executives, while many others have failed miserably. How Shanahan will perform is hard to predict.

Thinking positively, cautious optimism might be in order. Shanahan has no ties to either Nonis or Randy Carlyle, and might be prepared to clean house and bring in his own staff to transform the Leafs.

It's utterly clear that Carlyle has to go. The Leafs are one of the worst defensive teams, perhaps of all time, saved only by great goaltending. This despite Carlyle's reputation as one of the league's better defensive minds. A reputation, I might add, which was formed entirely based on his years coaching behind two slam dunk Hall of Fame defencemen. After both Scott Niedermayer and Chris Pronger left Anaheim the Ducks became a terrible puck possession team, routinely getting outshot, and quickly dropped from their status as perennial contenders.

Moreover, Carlyle has been completely incapable of adapting to the modern NHL, in which the most successful teams focus more on controlling the puck and retaining possession, rather than dumping and chasing and relying on the stretch pass/chip play (as an aside: has that ever worked for the Leafs? yet they stick to it religiously). His fierce refusal to ice a competent fourth line—also becoming another necessity in the modern NHL—and puzzling roster decisions compound his poor tactics. Simply put, he has to go before torpedoing another season.

But Shanahan shouldn't stop with Carlyle. Nonis spent the off-season using ample cap space to tailor the roster almost exactly to his coach's specifications. Out were useful players like Mikhail Grabovski and Clarke MacArthur and in were the Mimico twins, Dave Bolland and David Clarkson. Bolland was a good gamble in a complementary role, but Clarkson has essentially destroyed the Leafs cap and has a buyout-proof contract. The moves were made at expense of re-hauling a blueline that was woefully thin.

Much like Carlyle, Nonis needs to go because he doesn't understand that the game has changed. Speed and skill trump brawn and grit.

While he's at it, Shanahan may as well torch the whole front office. Capologist Claude Loiselle, who made such a mess of the cap that the Leafs couldn't even call up Peter Granberg for a few days at the end of the season, needs to go. Ditto for a guy like Dave Poulin. Move Cliff Fletcher's rocking chair somewhere outside of the ACC and put on a nice episode of Matlock. Never ask for his advice again.

The groupthink that has gone on up top has made the entire management team believe they were the smartest guys all summer, the hubris practically bleeding from their mouths during every interview, despite the reality that the Leafs excelled during the shortened season thanks to sky-high percentages (which have predictably regressed). Being outshot as badly, and as consistently, as the Maple Leafs have is not generally a recipe for success. The Leafs did almost nothing to correct their most visible flaws.

Hiring Shanahan is the first step for Leiweke. Now let the heads roll.