11/03/2021 By Byron Hutchison

Interest in Nisbet came as a surprise to no one; he's been a revelation for Hibs this season. Just as he was for Dunfermline Athletic in the Championship last season and for Raith Rovers in League 1 the season before that. The 23-year-old has ascended the Scottish footballing pyramid on an annual basis and excelled at each level in the process.

Despite a contract that runs until 2023, the Birmingham bid will have sounded the alarm at Easter Road. If the Hibee’s recruitment team weren’t already looking for potential Nisbet replacements, they certainly will be now.

So, I’ve decided to put myself in their shoes and use a combination of data and video analysis to scour Europe in search of some potential recruits.

I began my search by gathering a data set from WyScout containing the 45 Scottish Premiership strikers who have played over 500 league minutes this season. I then built a relatively simple tool that allowed me to compare each potential recruit against any individual striker in the league as well as the median Scottish Premiership striker.

When it comes to finding suitable replacements for a player you have to ask some key questions and define some specific criteria. So first, let’s take a look at what Nisbet does for Hibernian that their other striking options, Martin Boyle and Christian Doidge, don’t.

The first thing that jumps out to me is the relative similarity between Nisbet and Boyle’s profiles. Hibs may have a ready-made replacement in the Australian international. Couple him with an underperforming finisher in Doidge (the Welshman’s goals per 90 rate is significantly lower than his Non-Pen xG per 90 rate this season) and they may look at making internal adjustments to maximise those two with Nisbet no longer the focal point of their attack.

I’m going to assume, however, that Jack Ross will ultimately look to replace Nisbet at least to some degree, his side will need depth upfront at the very least. Combined, Nisbet, Boyle and Doidge have contributed to 52.6% of Hibernian’s attacking output (Non-Pen xG + xA) this season. As much as Boyle may be able to provide as an out and out striker, moving him forward to replace Nisbet creates issues deeper in the Hibs system. I’m thinking about ball-carrying and chance creation from the wing in particular. Boyle leads his side in cumulative xA this season by some distance and is second only to Ryan Kent league-wide for attempted 1v1 dribbles. Although the gap between Nisbet and Boyle in terms of offensive output isn’t huge, the same can’t be said for the gap between Boyle and some of his potential stand-ins out wide.

Ross has adapted his system recently and smart additions like Chris Cadden and Jackson Irvine have done well to replace the output lost by Boyle’s shift up-field, however, I think it’s safe to say that if both Irvine and Nisbet leave in the summer as expected, Hibs will be in a little bit of trouble.

Surprisingly, Nisbet doesn’t stand out hugely in any single metric when compared to his attacking colleagues. Sure, his 0.09 xA per 90 ranks in the 74th percentile among Scottish Premiership forwards but it’s some way behind Boyle’s 0.18 (90th percentile) and while his Non-Pen xG per 90 of 0.36 is one of the best in the division, even that is bettered by Christian Doidge’s 0.42; I did say he was underperforming.

The primary difference between Nisbet and his counterparts at Hibs isn’t one single thing, it’s a bit of everything. Nisbet is well rounded, he sits between Boyle and Doidge in almost all attacking metrics and it's reflected when watching Hibs play. He has what Doidge lacks in mobility, fleet-footedness and clinical finishing. And what Boyle misses in hold-up play, movement in the box and (to a much lesser degree) interplay. He scores chances created by Boyle and he creates chances for Doidge, he’s the glue, the best allrounder of the three.

I’m not necessarily looking for a one-to-one replacement for Nisbet, although I’ll do my best, replacing someone of his significance is almost an impossible task for a club at Hibs’ level. Instead, I’ll focus my search on finding a young forward who can make an impact by filling some of the void left by Nisbet while showing the promise to grow into a premium Scottish Premiership player. Just as Nisbet did this season.

What I’m looking for then is a jack-of-all-trades with a scorers touch. A striker, 23 or under, who is adept at getting into scoring positions, mobile enough to contribute defensively and run off-the-ball while possessing the technique to receive it to feet regularly, the ability to carry it at times and the creativity required to create shots for himself and others.

A tough task and for reference, there are only five players playing at any level in Scotland who meet the data requirements I set when filtering players. Of those five: Kemar Roofe, Martin Boyle, Mohammed Elyounoussi, Odsenne Edouard and Kevin Nisbet, only the latter two fit the age restriction of being 23-years-old or younger.

Ross has favoured a two-man attack in over 60% of the Hibee's matches this season according to WyScout. His side take just over 10 shots per 90 (with Nisbet accounting for 2.51 of them) and play the fourth-most passes in the division. I’m going to assume that matches in which Hibs have outperformed their opponents in terms of xG have gone to plan and are reflective of how Ross would like his side to play; the Leith outfit have had the lion-share of possession in those games, averaging 52%. For those reasons, I’ll show preference in my search to players who have experience playing as part of an attacking duo in possession orientated systems but I won’t rule anyone out on this basis alone.

Hibs have shown a willingness to spend on attacking talent in recent years and although times are tough, Nisbet is likely to fetch at least the £2,000,000 fee offered in January, if not more. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that Jack Ross and co may find themselves selling a Scotland international striker fresh from a major tournament come August. With that in mind, I won’t restrict our search to out-of-contract players but I will limit myself to players with a valuation below €1,000,000 according to transfermrkt (taking those numbers with a pinch of salt of course). For reference, Nisbet is valued at €1,500,000 by the site at the time of writing.

The Shortlist

I whittled the initial long list down to 12 before diving into video footage. I did this primarily by removing players who seemed totally unattainable for various reasons or those playing at a level significantly lower than the Scottish Premiership.

In general, I don’t like to rule players out based solely on this, football is a global game and quality talent can be found in every nook and cranny of it. Terem Moffi scored 8 Ligue 1 goals in his first 18 games this season and he was playing in Lithuania just two years ago. Nisbet himself was playing Scottish League One football as a 21-year-old.

You get the point.

In this instance however I think it’s necessary, we’re hoping to replace one of Hibernian’s key players here so the jump in level shouldn’t be too great. Translating outputs from league to league is obviously a very vital factor when assessing transfer targets and I have a still unfinished model in place for trying to predict this which also helped me filter my final list. For the sake of keeping things simple though, I’ll use the UEFA country coefficient as a general reference point in this article.

You’ll notice that more than half of our shortlist play in a third or second-tier league. When searching for a player as young and well rounded as Nisbet in terms of production you’re unlikely to find one in a top division who is realistically attainable for a club of Hibs’ size. All of these guys are in my opinion potentially within range for Hibernian both in terms of transfer fee (if applicable) and salary demands.

The next step involved watching a lot of footage of each player and assessing whether or not their data matched the eye-test. I then profiled each one (using at least 1000+ minutes per player) against both Kevin Nisbet and the median Scottish Premiership striker this season before settling on my final list of four targets.

Recommendation number one comes from Austria in the shape of Benedikt Pichler (cracking name, I know). Pichler is likely one of the more expensive options on the list, that said, Austria Wien haven’t sold a player for more than €300,000 in the past three seasons so there is a chance that salary permitting, he’d be attainable for Hibs if they decide to splash the cash on a marquee signing. The 23-year-old has progressed from Austria’s third tier to its first via two transfers in two seasons, just as Nisbet did in Scotland. Pichler joined Austria Wien in January 2019 and had served predominantly as a wide midfielder or winger before transitioning to his centre forward role this season, his first as a regular starter in the top-flight.

Data Profile

Looking at Pichler’s data from the current campaign it’s easy to see why he’s top of our list. He is streets ahead of the median Scottish Premiership striker in every category, ranking in the 70th percentile or above in all but three of our key metrics and besting Nisbet in all but two; Non-Penalty Goals per 90 (0.35 vs 0.33) and Shots per 90 (2.51 vs 2.12).

There’s not much more to say that isn’t already very obvious when looking at the chart. Realistically the only players currently in the league who stack up to Pichler from a data perspective are those at Celtic and Rangers, which should tell you all you need to know.

Usually in cases as extreme as this certain caveats apply but I don’t think that is the case here. Pichler has totalled almost 2,000 minutes this season and the standard in the Austrian Bundesliga (which ranks 10th in UEFA’s country coefficient list) is relatively comparable to the Scottish Premiership (which ranks 11th). While the style of play is quite different and there are generally slightly more goals scored in Austria, it’s not as if Austria Wien are the league’s all-conquering kings. In fact, they’re relatively poor, sitting eighth in a 12 team league at the time of writing. Which makes his data profile all the more impressive.

Scout Report

At 6’0” (184cm) Pichler is fairly tall and comes with a sturdy frame to match, he’s a real presence on the pitch and looks physically ready for the Scottish Premiership. He's mobile, changes direction relatively quickly, possess good pace over distance and controls his body well in stride; holding defenders off when challenged and keeping his head up. Pichler’s physique also aids him when receiving the ball, he does a great job of pinning defenders behind him which makes him a handy wall-passer with his back to goal. He has a tendency to try and spin his marker and run when receiving the ball out wide or further from goal, something he does well, boasting an 88th percentile 1.98 Progressive Runs per 90.

As you may expect from a former wide midfielder he’s a very good off-ball runner down the channels and looks to break beyond the defensive line regularly. He has played on both the right and left in the past and is subsequently fairly adept at crossing with each foot, an attribute that contributes to his 0.12 xA per 90, placing him in the 81st percentile in our data set. An above-average dribbler for a central striker, Pichler has completed 49% of his 6.04 attempts per 90 and has a solid repertoire of step-overs, chops and 1v1 moves, traits I suspect are another hangover from his days as a wide-man. His decision making isn’t bad when in the final third but he can be guilty of holding on to the ball a little too long when dribbling and even if it isn’t one of our key metrics, his 63% Passing Accuracy is noteworthy as the second-lowest in our set. Although some of this can be attributed to his desire to make things happen offensively, often looking to play a decisive final ball or cross, there’s no escaping the fact that it’s an area for improvement in his game.

In the box, the Austrian moves well, remains active and has an explosive first step. He confidently takes on shots with both feet but lacks a bit of technique and power when striking the ball, preferring to place shots with his instep if given time to do so, there is scope for improvement in this area with the right coaching. Generally speaking, his goal-scoring is predicated on his movement, mobility and ability to find high xG opportunities rather than out and out finishing prowess. I’d suggest his underperformance with regards to his Non-Pen xG backs up the eye-test on this. He’s a very good aerial threat too, competing for the ball more than most he possesses great leaping and accurate heading ability.

Pichler is already comfortable playing in a two-man attack, his current club have opted for either a 4-4-2 or a 3-4-1-2 in 60% of their league games so far this season. He would of course need to make some adjustments to fit Ross’ system; this season at least, Pichler has been part of a side that tends to concede possession to their opponents, playing more on the break. However, at 23 there’s a lot to like about him already and he has shown himself to be more than capable of getting up to speed when adapting to a new league or environment. With a few tweaks and some specific instruction, I believe Pichler could be as good a Nisbet replacement as Hibs could hope for.

Next up we have someone slightly younger but with a familiar enough name for Scottish football fans, Sydney van Hooijdonk. The right-footed NAC Breda striker, son of former Celtic goal-getter Pierre, has enjoyed a breakout season in the Dutch second-tier. Despite his dad’s many achievements in football Sydney didn’t develop at a professional academy, instead, he made his way as a youngster playing for local amateur side VV Beek Vooruit before eventually being recruited by Breda in 2017, already aged 17. After a sensational return of 42 goals in 57 games combined for the u19s and u21s, Sydney made his first-team debut in 2018 with Breda amid an Eredivisie relegation battle. He made 12 appearances from the bench in total in a season that ultimately saw Breda relegated. Van Hooijdonk had established himself as the club’s leading striker in the Eerste Divisie over the season and a half since his debut but has been sidelined recently, presumably due to his contract status and pending departure.

Data Profile

This season van Hooijdonk has shown all the signs of a striker capable of performing at a higher level. His goal scoring rate is bettered only by Cedric Itten, Kemar Roofe and Leigh Griffiths while his Goal Conversion (%) ranks as the very best in our data set. There are of course flaws, while he excels as a traditional number 9 and an out and out goal scorer he trails Nisbet and even the median Scottish Premiership striker in some of the supporting categories we’re looking for. Suggesting he’s not quite the all-rounder that Hibs may require just yet but what van Hooijdonk does have on his side is time. At 21 he’s far from the finished article and those supporting metrics are still reasonable enough to suggest he could hit Nisbet’s marks if given time.

Unlike Pichler, some caveats apply for Sydney, while there are some genuinely decent sides in the Eerste Divisie the reality for van Hooijdonk is that on a week-to-week basis he is up against a poorer standard of competition than is found in the Scottish Premiership. In general, there are more chances created and in turn, goals scored per 90 in the Eerste Divisie as well, however, with his attacking numbers so far above the norm, even if they were to drop by half (which would be extreme) at a higher level his metrics would still represent those of a good Scottish Premiership striker.

Scout Report

Van Hooijdonk is a leggy 6’1” (186cm) but fills his frame all the same. He accelerates well, takes long strides and while not especially quick overall, he’s fast enough to keep a high-line on its toes. He’s strong in the air, wins a good number of highballs in midfield and looks to flick the ball on when runners move beyond him. He can be a little one dimensional with his back to goal at times and although he can pin defenders and play quick one-twos fairly well, he doesn’t always position his body ideally to receive the ball under pressure and can be let down by his first touch. Given his size and strength, I believe he has the physicality for the Scottish Premiership but would need some time to adjust to the higher tempo, increased contact and rigour of the football here.

A plus point in Sydney's game is his willingness to run. Van Hooijdonk occupies the channels well and aggressively pursues balls played over the top. He isn’t a particularly great dribbler but seemingly recognises this flaw, keeping his attempts to just 2.0 Dribbles per 90 (of which he completes 52%). Usually doing a solid job of holding the ball up until teammates arrive to support. While he can struggle to pick passes in deeper positions, he does have a decent eye for a final ball in more advanced areas when able to turn and see movement in front of him. Van Hooijdonk does his best work in and on the edge of the opposition penalty area, occupying defenders with his size and creating space for himself and others with his movement. When defenders get tight to van Hooijdonk in off-the-ball situations he tends to control the engagement, positioning himself well to roll off his marker and run in behind. This type of play makes him particularly effective when his side are trying to penetrate a low-block or slide in low crosses from the byline.

As you would expect from a more traditional centre forward, he is a superb striker of the ball both instinctively and when given time to settle. Preferring his right foot, he generates a lot of power and can hit the ball using a variety of techniques, possessing the craft required to place the ball when appropriate. All of these factors combine to make him the top-ranked player for Shots on Target (72.73%) and Goal Conversion (36.36%) in our data set. Van Hooijdonk’s ball-striking ability also lends itself to set-pieces with the Dutchman being something of a direct free-kick specialist. Despite doing well in the air during build-up play, his heading ability in front of goal is an area in need of improvement. Considering his stature and leaping ability, there is real room for growth in this department and if nurtured it’s an area of his game that could result in a lot more goals than it does currently.

Perhaps the most appealing thing about van Hooijdonk is the fact he’s out of contract in the summer and seems set on leaving Breda at the end of his current term. The Dutchman is reportedly keen on a move to the UK and like his dad before him, may see Scotland as an appealing route to take. He has yet to play in a system like the one deployed by Hibs so far In his young career and there would undoubtedly be an adjustment period if the he made a move to Scotland. But as a prospect van Hooijdonk represents a solid option for the Hibees and a potentially shrewd Nisbet-like financial investment if he continues to progress along his current trajectory.

Alright, so we’re going a little further afield for our next recommendation, to Greece. 21-year-old Anastasios ‘Tasos’ Douvikas spent seven years with amateur club Aristeas Argous before joining the academy setup at his local professional side Asteras Tripolis in the Greek Super League in 2015. Douvikas earned his top-flight debut in Greece two years later as an 18-year-old and although he went on to play a further 39 times for the club scoring just two goals in the process, he did so playing exclusively from the bench. Notching less than 900 minutes in total, including 33 minutes against Hibs in a Europa League qualifier. After spending the majority of the 2019/20 season in the reserves Douvikas was allowed to leave for fellow Super League outfit Volos FC on a free transfer and has rewarded their faith in him handsomely, scoring 36% of the club's goals after 23 matches this season.

Data Profile

Douvikas stacks up well enough to Nisbet from a data perspective and outperforms 70% of Scottish Premiership strikers in six of our key data points. Like Nisbet, Tasos excels in the crucial goal-scoring and conversion metrics but falls a little short in some of the supporting categories. Even though he struggles with regards to Shot Assists per 90, his xA per 90 isn’t that far below the league median and after digging a little deeper on some of his additional passing outputs I would suggest his struggles here are more a reflection of his team's style of play and his role within that than of the player himself. With the lowest individual median ranking on our list, Douvikas made the cut based more on the eye-test than his raw data alone.

The Greek Super League ranks 20th in the UEFA country coefficient and is a slight puzzle in that there are a cluster of, I’d argue six, genuinely good or decent sides and a raft of significantly poorer ones. At present, Volos are the best of the rest, sitting comfortably in 7th. Douvikas not only exceeds the Scottish Premiership median significantly in multiple data points but he’s doing so in a league that sees fewer goals scored than the Scottish Premiership on a per 90 basis, a factor which would stand him in good stead if he made the move to Scotland.

Scout Report

Right-footed Douvikas is a very good athlete. A high-effort player, he’s 6’0” (184cm), well built with a compact powerful running style. While not especially explosive he really starts shifting after 5-10 yards and can quite comfortably outrun most defenders over distance. He runs well with the ball at his feet too, keeping it close while taking soft touches. One of Douvikas' biggest attributes is his ability to win fouls, he does a great job of shifting his body in front of defenders after dribbling past them, often forcing a clumsy tackle or tangle of legs. He has great leaping ability and is more than happy to compete in the air, his 79th percentile rank for Aerial Duels per 90 reflects his endeavour while his 73rd percentile rank for Aerial Duels Won (%) backs up his ability in that department.

In his current role at Volos, Douvikas provides a constant threat in behind defenders and looks for balls over the top where he can use his pace regularly. He’s not required to do so often but he’s a very good ball carrier and is more than capable of driving his team 40 or 50 yards up the field when his side look to break from opposition corners or after winning the ball deep in their own half. He keeps active and on his toes when off-the-ball in the opposition box, moving to his markers blind side regularly while searching for angles and runs to latch on to the end of crosses or through balls.

Douvikas is tidy from a technical perspective. In the box he exhibits good speed of thought and a soft, clever first touch, using it to quickly create space between himself and his marker, comfortably going either right or left despite his right-foot preference. He’s both an instinctive first-time finisher when under-pressure and a calm, clinical striker when time and space are in his favour, he makes solid contact with the ball, generating plenty of power if and when required. He picks his shots well too, his Non-Pen xG per Shot of 0.23 is the second-best in our data set and you can see why when watching him play. He’s patient, taking few shots and usually looking to pass wide if outside of the box rather than take a pop-shot. As mentioned previously the Greek u21 international controls his body well when dribbling and that is complemented by his nimble footwork, he changes direction quickly with the ball at his feet and although he doesn’t do it too often he is more than capable of squaring up defenders. It’s not a major part of his current side's game but Douvikas does show signs of being an intelligent, aggressive presser too. He works hard defensively, remaining alert, pouncing on errors with urgency while competing for a 76th percentile 4.9 Defence Duels per 90.

Scoring goals at the rate he has this season means Douvikas is likely on the radar of a few bigger clubs in Greece. However, if Hibs can secure European football, they can offer the youngster just as much on the footballing side as the likes of PAOK or AEK Athens as well as an ever-appealing gateway to British football. Given his current club's lack of leverage or history of selling assets, he may well be attainable for the Leith side if they make a move early enough. There is the risk that Douvikas, who is in the midst of his first real season as a starter, is simply enjoying a purple-patch but I think his form has more to do with him enjoying a sustained run of football for the first time in his career than anything else. Douvikas has experience playing in both a two-man attack and as a lone striker and his combination of pace, work ethic and above-average technique would see him settle well in the Scottish top-flight, he’d be a worthwhile gamble at the right price.

We’re going to remain in the Mediterranean for my final recommendation, shifting our search from Greece to Cyprus we find 23-year-old Ryan Mmaee. Belgian-born Mmaee began his youth career with a local boys club before finding his way to the KAA Gent academy at 13. He would move on to Standard Liege just three years later before making his senior debut for the club at 17-years-old in 2015. Once a star in a Belgium u19 side that featured current Bundesliga striker Dodi Lukebakio, a teenage Mmaee even netted in a 2-0 win over Scotland’s u19s back in 2016. Despite his early break-through Mmaee was unable to establish himself at Liege and after underwhelming loan spells at Waasland-Beveren in the Belgian top-tier and AGF in the Danish Superliga, the one-time hot-prospect found himself without a club in July 2019. He signed with AEL Limassol in the Cypriot top-flight that summer and after taking time to settle initially Mmaee has rekindled some of his early promise while in Cyprus. Producing some of the best per 90 metrics in the division this season.

Data Profile

Mmaee is another who on paper, looks excellent, ranking in the 70th percentile or above in eight different categories. The only sizeable differences between Nisbet and Mmaee are in Aerial Duels per 90, Shot Assists per 90 and Received Passes per 90; Mmaee comfortably exceeds Nisbet in the first two while he trails him in the latter. There are a few weak points but in comparison to the league median, none of them are a cause for concern and overall the Moroccan international profiles very strongly.

The Cypriot league ranks higher in the UEFA country coefficient than I suspect some might have guessed at 15th (a reminder that Scotland ranks 11th), that’s above Greece, Serbia, Switzerland and Croatia to name just a few. While the league has a reputation as something of a sunny retirement home, a 34-year-old Jason Puncheon is currently enjoying his second season in the division, many clubs have done a good job of recruiting academy drop-outs from established European countries in recent years which has seen the overall standard improve. That said, I’d tax Mmaee’s numbers a little and would expect a drop-off initially if he were to make the move to Scotland.

Scout Report

Mmaee is a 6’0” (184cm) right-footer with a strong upper body and explosive first step. He has more of a relaxed running style over distance, rarely breaking into a full sprint with the ball, though he presses intensely at times and tracks back well. His frame and body control are real assets; Mmaee is really strong when backing into defenders, positioning himself and shielding the ball from his marker well, he’s very adept at playing quick one-twos or holding the ball up as a result. Although his leaping ability is only slightly above average his aptitude for controlling defenders physically aids him here, he’s a good threat in the air and wins more than his fair share of headers in midfield. I would flag some concerns with his stamina over 90 minutes and could see this being a problem upon arrival in Scotland, however, this is something that may be remedied in the right professional environment.

Possessing a very good first touch, Mmaee has a little bit of extra flair to his game that none of our previous recommendations have shown. He has quick feet on the ball and can twist and turn out of tight situations, evading pressure well. Mmaee poses a real problem for defenders, he wins more than his entitled number of fouls and ranks in the 68th percentile in our data set for Dribbles per 90, completing his 3.65 attempts at an impressive rate of 51%. He has a tendency to drop deep, descending into half-spaces to collect the ball before either sweeping it out wide or looking to turn and run at defenders. When facing goal in the final-third Mmaee is a penetrating passer with good vision, he ranks as the very best forward passer in our group in terms of Accurate Forward Pass (%) and is in the 86th percentile for Smart Passes per 90. While his dribbling and willingness to drop deep are undoubted positives in the right system I would have some concerns with the casual nature of his play at times. Mmaee has a lot of confidence on the ball and this can sometimes result in lapses in concentration or carelessness in deeper areas that would worry me slightly in a higher tempo league like the Scottish Premiership.

In the box, Mmaee’s aforementioned explosive first step and acceleration are big plus points. Allowing him to quickly create space for shots or lose his marker to get on the end of dangerous passes into the penalty area. He has good technique when striking the ball too, making a clean connection with first-time strikes in particular. A fairly disciplined shooter, Mmaee ranks in the 86th percentile for xG per Shot, with 88% of his shots this season coming from inside the opposition box. A composed finisher in general the Moroccan finds the back of the net with just over 23% of his shots, picking his moments and moving well to create high xG opportunities for himself. His vision and passing ability remain present in the box and he’s unselfish in his willingness to pick the right ball, a factor that contributes to his xA per 90 of 0.09, ranking him in the 75th percentile.

Mmaee is another who is a free agent this summer and with no deal on the table, he is free to leave Cyprus in July. Having rebuilt his career to some degree after his loan troubles the 23-year-old will look to pick his next club wisely and a steadily progressing Hibs side may be able to provide just the sort of platform he is looking for. However, despite his Bosman status, Mmaee wouldn’t be a risk-free acquisition. Cypriot clubs pay fairly handsomely and if he is affordable at all for Hibs, he’d likely eat up a sizeable chunk of Jack Ross’ budget and subsequently face a certain level of expectation. Mmaee’s style of play would gel well with Doidge though and given his similarities from both a data and playing perspective I suspect he would make for a serviceable replacement for Nisbet.

Kevin Nisbet is unlikely to remain in Leith for much longer and will undoubtedly leave a sizeable hole in the Hibs attack next season. But with money in their pocket, an open-mind and smart use of data and video, Hibs fans shouldn’t be too downbeat about his inevitable departure. I reckon all four of the above recommendations represent exciting, viable options for the Hibees, each of them bringing their own set of pros and cons to the table. It’ll be tough but if the recruitment team at Easter Road do their due diligence, there’s every possibility they’ll find a suitable replacement for their top goalscorer this coming summer.

Notes

• All data featured in this article has been provided by WyScout and is correct as of 11/12/21.

• The Radar tool I used to compare Hibernian’s current strikers was created by Charles Boutaud and if you’d like to create your own radars you can do so here.

• The comparison tool I used was created by myself in Tableau, a simpler version featuring the complete data set can be found here.

• I used an additional dashboard that owes a lot to a Rob Carroll tutorial in order to quickly compare my initial shortlist, you can play with a version of that here.

• There has been a lot of discussion on FT around the length of scout reports recently and I’m obviously aware that this article is quite long. I hope it’s clear that this isn’t in any way meant to represent a working scout report, that said, I did create one for each player in the process of writing this and if you would like a copy of one feel free to get in touch.

08/07/2020 By Byron Hutchison

MLS has always been of interest for us here at Football From Afar. For several years now (and decades in the pre-MLS days) Scottish players have been drawn stateside. In the last 10-years alone national team regulars such as Kenny Miller, Kris Boyd, Barry Robson, Shaun Maloney and Steven Caldwell all spent time on the other side of the Atlantic. But before we dive in and preview our current crop, let me give you a very quick explanation of the tournament itself.

My intention here is not to explain the #MLSIsBack tournament with all of its various caveats, quirks and COVID-enforced regulations, so I’ll do my best to keep this brief (they haven’t made it easy). If you would like to read the full details you can find them here.

*The competition will feature 24 MLS teams in a World Cup-style format of group stages followed by knockout rounds. FC Dallas and Nashville SC are the only omissions from the tournament, withdrawing after several of their players tested positive for COVID-19. All matches are to take place over a 26-day-period beginning on July 9th at 1:30am (GMT). After the group stage, 16 teams will advance to the knockout rounds with the final slated for August 11th. Oh and all of this will, of course, take place at the ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex at Walt Disney Resort, Florida.

This isn’t just a vanity pre-season affair either. Each team's three group-stage matches will count towards their regular-season points tally (weird, I know). A spot in the 2021 CONCACAF Champions League is also on the line as well as a $1,100,000 prize pool for players.

At present, MLS features five Scotsman, - with Sam Nicholson’s departure from the Colorado Rapids having been announced last week - all of whom have featured for Scotland at senior level. With that in mind and the competition explained, let's get up to speed on our boys, their team’s and their prospect’s heading into the first round of fixtures.

*This section has been updated since the articles publish date.

The Team

Sporting KC head into the tournament as one of the favourites despite missing out on the playoffs last season. They made several key additions to their squad ahead of the new campaign who have already proven their worth during Sporting's two pre-COVID victories in the regular season.

Up top, the addition of 29-year-old, Alan Pulido has added a (relatively speaking) elite-level scoring threat to the side. The Mexican boasts five goals in 13 international appearances and arrived in Kansas from Liga MX, where he had been a fairly consistent scorer. It didn't take him long to find his shooting boots north of the border either, netting in each of his first two MLS appearances. Pulido, who cost Kansas a club-record $9.5 million claimed the Liga MX Golden Boot last season and may have a legitimate claim to MLS equivalent this term.

On Russell’s opposite flank - Sporting tend to play in a 4-3-3 - Khiry Shelton’s reintegration into the squad after less than 12-months with SC Paderborn in the Bundesliga is a welcome one. The Colorado native is dynamic, quick and a problem for the majority of the league’s left-backs. His spell in the Bundesliga may have been short but he appears to have returned a more refined player for it. Gadi Kinda’s arrival on-loan from Beitar Jerusalem should be noted too, the attacking midfielder, like Pulido, has two goals to his name in just two appearances for Sporting.

The Player

The new recruits in the attacking-third shouldn’t put Russell’s starting spot under immediate threat but given that many of last seasons forward options have remained with the team, there will be competition for places. Russell was moved out left for the opening two MLS fixtures of the season and with Shelton drawing attention and providing an option down the right flank, one would hope the new three-pronged threat may result in more space and freedom for Russell to operate.

The addition of Pulido to the attacking line should also reduce the reliance on Russell to provide a spark each and every game. As well as adding a goal-scoring threat, Pulido will also provide Russell with a high-quality target in and around the 18-yard-box for the first time since his own arrival in Kansas. The Scotsman’s xA (Expected Assists) of 0.31 per 90 over the past two seasons is significantly higher than his actual return of 0.18 assists. Having Puidlo on-hand to provide the finishing touch to offensive moves should help Russell close that gap.

Russell has become a Scotland regular in recent years and he’ll be keen to ensure he is in the squad once again for the all-important Euro 2020 qualifying playoffs. I would hope that the added competition for places and the overall boost in quality in the Sporting KC ranks will light a fire under Russell. Unlike previous seasons, he can’t rest on his laurels and expect to play every week. Which can only be a good thing for Steve Clarke and Scotland.

The Team

Inter Miami are a new franchise and as such, enter the competition as an unknown quantity who could prove to be something of a wildcard. Coach Diego Alonso is the man tasked with getting the team to click. The former Uruguayan international already has a Liga MX crown and multiple CONCACAF Champions League titles on his resume from his time coaching in Mexico and will be hoping to replicate that success in the US as soon as possible.

Miami suffered defeats in each of their first two competitive fixtures, however, they have shown promise. A 1-0 loss in their inaugural MLS fixture against last year's playoff semi-finalists LAFC was admirable and they dominated despite being on the losing end of a 2-1 scoreline against D.C United the following week. Their XI is a mishmash of MLS mainstays, draftees, South American youth prospects and a sprinkling of top-tier talent.

Rodolfo Pizarro is the designated talisman for the Florida franchise. The 26-year-old who has 25 appearances and 5 goals for Mexico to his name is another to have made the move to MLS from Liga MX. In his native land, Pizarro, who is a versatile creative force, was regarded as one of the league’s very best players. And he has already etched his name into Inter Miami history, having netted the club’s first-ever MLS goal.

The Player

Morgan started in each of Miami’s first two MLS fixtures and provided the assist for Pizarro’s aforementioned franchise-first goal. The Scot even has the privilege of wearing the #7 jersey for the David Beckham owned club and is all but certain to be in the XI for their first tournament clash against Orlando City.

Along with Pizarro, Morgan will be required to do much of the heavy lifting from an attacking perspective for the side. Fortunately, they will have a new forward to lead the line come tournament time with 20-year-old Argentine prospect Julian Carranza set to take to the field - having missed their previous games with an injury. In prior games, that role has been filled by Robbie Robinson, a 21-year-old who arrived at the club fresh from college soccer via the MLS draft system. While Robinson was energetic and enthusiastic, he lacked the technical quality that Morgan and Pizarro have come to expect from previous teammates such as Odsonne Eduard and Raul Jimenez respectively. Carranza joins Miami having already scored 10 Argentine Primera Divison goals.

Morgan featured in Steve Clarke’s most recent Scotland squad but will have to be on top form to ensure he isn’t forgotten about while plying his trade in the US. He should start the majority of Miami’s matches in the up coming tournament and with David Beckham overseeing the operation, Morgan may find the spotlight shines a little brighter on Miami than most MLS franchises.

The Team

Heading to Florida, NYCFC are seen as early favourites to top their group. They finished last season as Eastern Conference champions and have retained the bulk of their side heading into this season. The consensus is that with their City Group backing they’ve built one of the strongest squads in the league.

Dallia’s side are an offensive force, lead by Brazilian striker Héber. The 28-year-old moved to The Big Apple from Rijeka in Croatia. He mustered an impressive record of 25 goals in 38 league games while there and that prolific form has followed him to MLS. The addition of former Arsenal schoolboy and one-time Rangers midfielder Gedion Zelalem may provide another creative boost for the New Yorkers if he can find his footing, but it won't be a problem If he can't. Between ex-Atalanta man Maxi Moralez, Alexandru Mitrita and Jesus Medina, they have more than enough to trouble MLS defences.

Speaking of defence, NYCFC are solid in that regard too, posting the league’s 4th best defensive record last season. Between their attacking force and defensive solidity, it’s easy to see why they’re a hot-tip heading into the tournament, despite losing their opening two regular-season games.

The Player

Macky-Steven will be looking to establish himself this season and the tournament may provide the perfect platform for the tricky winger. The issue for GMS, however, is a financial one as much as it is a footballing one. 

The aforementioned trio of Moralez, Mitrita and Medina all play in GMS’ area of the field and each of them are designated players for NYCFC - meaning their salaries exist out width the traditional salary cap (see more). In short, there’s likely internal pressure on Dellia to name the trio in his line-up for the majority of games. It’s essential that the Scotsman makes the most of his opportunities from the bench if he is to justify a spot in the starting XI any time soon.

The 29-year-old only has two Scotland caps to his name but with one coming as recently as October 2018, he may still hope to force his way back into the fold. With European football nearing its delayed season-end and the Scottish game in a seemingly permanent state of flux, if GMS can make some noise stateside, it may travel a little further than usual. 

The Team

The Crew had quite the offseason prior to MLS' curtailed restart. Srengthening in multiple areas and with key components returning from injury. They arguably had the best break of any team in the league. Although it would be a surprise if they took home the #MLSIsBack trophy, expect them to make an impact in Florida over the next month.

Just like Sporting KC, Columbus threw some cash at Liga MX in December in order to secure the services of their club-record signing; Argentine Lucas Zelarayan. The 28-year-old has been a key cog for Tigres UNAL, one of Mexico’s premier clubs, over the past 5 seasons. Two-time Ajax trialist, Fanendo Adi also joined The Crew's ranks, the Nigerian is an MLS veteran with 50 league goals on his record and will provide ample backup for USMNT star Gyasi Zardes upfront. Add former S.C Braga winger Pedro Santos to the mix and the Ohio outfit suddenly look like a pretty formidable attacking force.

The recruitment of Darlington Nagbe shouldn’t go without mention either. The USA international - and son of former Liberia captain, Joe Nagbe - has spent his entire career in US soccer and represents a very clever pickup. The central midfielder has two MLS Cups under his belt can really make teams tick at this level from the middle of the park.

The Player

Cadden arrived in Columbus on the back of a successful loan spell at Oxford United, a stint that Oxford were reportedly keen to make permanent such was his form. The right-back spot in The Crew XI has been occupied by Ghanian Harrison Afful since 2015, the same year he was crowned Ghanian Footballer of the Year. The experienced Afful is 10 years Cadden's senior however and the Scot should have his sights set on making the right-back position his own in the coming weeks.

The Crew took four points from tough opposition in their opening two MLS fixtures and Cadden made an appearance in both games. He was given a three-minute cameo for his debut in a 1-0 victory over NYCFC before being called in as an emergency left-back at half-time against reigning MLS champions, the Seattle Sounders.

Already with two Scotland caps at the age of 23, Cadden will surely have his eyes on Euro playoffs. The right-back position in Steve Clarke’s side is anything but secure, despite Liam Palmer’s solid performances in recent internationals. The Scotland boss was spotted in Oxford taking in one of Cadden’s games as recently as September - prior to our most recent national team fixtures. Although Cadden didn't make the cut last time, he is clearly on Clarke’s radar.

The Team

The Rapids are rank outsiders heading into the competition, which is a position they are accustomed to at this point - they’ve been one of the poorest outfits in the league in recent years. Despite that, they claimed two victories in their two pre-COVID fixtures and the enforced stoppage couldn’t have really come at a worse time for coach Robin Fraser.

Fraser - in his first full season - now seems to be forming the nucleus of what could be a decent MLS side. They are captained by Englishman Jack Price and the former Wolves midfielder is central to their efforts. The deep-lying playmaker serves as the catalyst for many of their attacks and has already directly chipped in with two assists in their opening two games. Old-hand Kei Kamada is the sides primary goal-threat, the 36-year-old has scored at a rate of 0.48 per 90 since his return to MLS in 2015.

The departure of our own Sam Nicholson last week will come as a blow for the Rapids but they will see Younes Namil, who arrived on a 2-year loan from FC Krasnodar in January, as someone who may fill some of that attacking void. Rapids fans will also be hoping that long-time prospect Jonathan Lewis may have a breakout season, with Nicholson gone, the 23-year-old should see significantly more game time.

The Player

Colorado welcomed several new centre-backs into the team during the offseason including veteran Drew Moor. Wilson didn’t feature in either of the Rapids opening MLS fixtures as a result. The Rapids appear to have a new pairing at the centre of defence in Moor and Lalas Abubakar, meaning Wilson will find game-time even harder to come by this season.

The former Hearts captain did do himself a few favours last season by performing, on multiple occasions, as a defensive midfielder. His versatility in that regard may see him deployed as insurance alongside Price, or brought on as a reinforcement later in games. Unfortunately, however, Wilson is likely to only play a backup role for the Rapids in the upcoming tournament.

01/07/2020 By Byron Hutchison

Rumours of Hornby’s move to Reims began doing the rounds early on June 4th when L’Equipe’s Bertrand Latour reported that a relocation was in the works and by June 10th, the transfer appeared to be all but complete. In the end, it took until July 1st for the switch and subsequent 4-year-deal to be officially confirmed. Hornby had been a hot prospect on Merseyside since completing a £65,000 move to the Toffees from Northampton Town as a 14-year-old midfielder in 2014. The young Scot has come on significantly in the six years since, so, if you’re unfamiliar, let me get you up to speed on Reims’ latest addition.

You’ll have guessed by now that the rangy Hornby is no longer a midfielder. The Scotsman developed into a prolific second striker or frontline target-man during his time in the Everton Academy, notching a stand-out 16 goals in 20 games in the u18 equivalent of the Premier League. An impressive hat-trick in a 4-4 thriller against Phil Foden’s Manchester City in 2016 providing the impetus for his move up field. Emphatic displays at that level coupled with a seamless integration into the u23 setup prompted former Everton boss Sam Allardyce to hand Hornby his senior debut in 2017, aged just 18. His 13-minute cameo in a 3-0 Europa League win over Apollon Limassol in Cyprus, however, would serve as his sole first-team appearance for the Scousers. 

Hornby's post-Cyprus development resumed in Premier League 2 with the u23s and his all-around game continued to garner praise; earning a 3-year professional contract under then first-team head coach Marco Silva for his efforts. Everton claimed the PL2 title in 2019 with Hornby often playing alongside Bassala Sambou in a front pair, his record of eight goals in 31 appearances paling a little in comparison to his u18 tally as a result. Contrast that with his six goals in 13 games for Scotland’s u21 national team, leading the line in Scot Gemmill’s XI as a sole striker, and it would appear that Hornby is best served when deployed as an independent beacon at the tip of a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1.

Standing at 6’4” and with a decent sized frame, you’d be forgiven for pigeonholing Hornby as a lumbering centre forward but you would be wrong to do so. There is craft and guile to his game and his aforementioned time spent as a midfielder in his younger years has no doubt served him well from a technical perspective. The Scot is very shrewd while on the ball, his hold up play and clever flick-ons are both plus points in his game. He may well be a more potent threat when upfront on his own but his experience playing in a pair or as a supporting forward has left a welcome impression on his footballing brain. Hornby drops deep with regularity, pulling defenders with him as he descends between the lines, creating space for wide players and midfielders alike. He doesn’t just drop deep out of frustration or a desire to touch the ball either, he’s calculated about it and remains cognisant of his responsibilities as a front-man. His first-touch is solid too and while predominantly right-footed, he's more than capable with his left, allowing the forward to be instinctive when it counts. 

His physical attributes are of course there for all to see and Hornby knows how to make good use of them. Like many young players of stature, his size proved to be a particular asset at youth level but has become less and less pronounced as he has advanced through the age groups. He’s tall, but doesn’t have Robert Lewandowski’s physique just yet, he is only 20-years-old after all. That said, Hornby remains a commanding enough presence at the senior level and his aerial ability is a real weapon both in the box and during build up play. He’s not slow either and although his turn of pace isn’t as effective as it was against 18-year-olds, he remains a threat in-behind defenders. Funnily enough, as far as playing style goes, the best comparison for Hornby in recent Scottish history might well be the last Scotsman to play in France, Steven Fletcher.

Hornby’s link-up play and threat in-behind on display as he scores his first senior league goal.

Last season’s loan move - which included an option-to-buy - to KV Kortrijk in the Belgian top-flight was supposed to provide Hornby with his first real crack at the men's game. Two goals in his first three appearances got him off to a positive start while Kortrijk as a whole struggled. By December 13th they had failed to muster a win in eight consecutive matches. I’m not excusing Hornby’s part in that poor run - he started in five of those eight games - but loan players are often the first ones to take the hit in such circumstances and the frontman was no exception. Having racked up 697 minutes throughout Kortrijk’s first 19 league games, he took to the field for a total of just five minutes in their next 10 outings.

Hornby, who with his six international goals is Scotland’s most prolific striker at u21 level since Jordan Rhodes, wasn't close to the Everton first-team prior to his spell in Belgium. The loan move, sadly, won’t have given current Everton boss Carlo Ancelotti much reason to reevaluate things either. With the transfer window looming and just 12-months remaining on his contract at Goodison Park, the club’s desire to cash-in wasn't unexpected. Securing a move to a side that finished 6th in Ligue 1, however, on the back of a difficult time in Belgian football, was a little more surprising.

In Reims, Hornby is joining a historic club in French football - holders of six Ligue 1 titles. They even had the distinguished honour of competing in the inaugural European Cup final, succumbing to an Alfredo di Stefano led Real Madrid at the Parc des Princes in 1956. That level of success has, regrettably, become a distant memory for many in France’s champagne capital. The club was ultimately forced into liquidation in 1991 with a phoenix club forming in 1992. Over the ensuing 25 years, Les Rouge et Blanc emerged as a yo-yo team, fluttering between France’s first and third tiers. The appointment of current head coach David Guion in 2017, however, has seen the club undergo something of a revolution and allowed fans to once again dream of European football.

Guion steered Reims to the Ligue 2 title in his first full season in charge. He followed that with an impressive 8th place top-flight finish in 2018/19 and in the pandemic-hit 2019/20 season they improved once again. Claiming 6th and a spot in the Europa League - thanks in part to PSG winning both the Coupe de France and Coupe de la Ligue. A sharp rise orchestrated by a relative unknown, so what kind of team is Hornby joining?

To put it bluntly; a defensive one. Reims were regularly described as “the most frustrating team to play against in France” last season, but even that might be doing them a disservice. They may well be the most frustrating team in Europe. In 2019/20, Across Europe’s top five leagues, only one side conceded fewer goals by the time football ground to a COVID-enforced halt - as was the case in 1956, it’s Real Madrid who pipped Reims to this particular European crown. Never the less, for a club in just its second top-flight season, to only concede 21 times is astounding. The ever dominant PSG were even gracious enough to let opponents find the net on 24 occasions.

Le Mans born Guion - a defender in his playing days - builds his system from the back. His sides infuriating mid-block has become somewhat notorious among French football analysts and opposition coaches alike. Employing a 4-4-2 when defending, Reims quickly regroup when out of possession to form a near-impenetrable ten-man barrier consisting of three narrow horizontal lines, pressing only when particular parameters are satisfied. They’re impossible to play through. A suffocating sea of red and white shirts that floats seamlessly from side-to-side as opponents are forced to oscillate the ball from one wing to the other in search of air. It’s a slow death and no one is safe. Reims are the only side to have held a clean sheet against Thomas Tuchel’s PSG since the German’s arrival in Paris. It sounds simple enough, right? Sit tight in a 4-4-2, deny the passing lanes and pounce on interceptions, but it’s not. Guion’s game requires total commitment from his players and a deep understanding of his tactics, something that has been forged over the past three seasons.

Reims' attacking players aren’t let of the hook either and Hornby will be required to cut-off opposition passing routes into midfield and endeavour to force the ball out wide for the system to work. The aim, simply, is to force the ball to the flanks and encourage opponents into mistakes as far away from the Reims goal as possible, allowing Guoin’s side to counter from further up the field and catch teams in a defensive transition. Which will suit the tactically aware, hard-working Hornby. 

There will be stiff competition for a starting berth at Reims next season, however, with Boulaye Dia, El Bilal Touré, Anastasios Donis and one-time Ajax prodigy Kaj Sierhuis all on the books. It was Frenchman Dia who served as Guion’s primary forward last season - topping the club’s scoring charts in a system that took the shape of a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 while in possession - one that will sit well with Hornby. Dia’s performances received much praise during the previous campaign; his first in top-flight football. His seven Ligue 1 goals have drawn interest from the likes of Nice and Marseille and if rumours are to be believed he’s unlikely to remain in Reims for the upcoming season. Contrast that with Hornby’s humble record of three goals in 12 Belgian Pro League games last season - a ratio that has been maligned as a failure by some - and the acquisition of Hornby may seem a little underwhelming on the surface.

In relative terms, however, Hornby’s return of 0.36 league goals per 90 is a slight improvement on Dia’s 0.33 and a deeper look at both players advanced stats makes it apparent that Hornby’s recruitment may be much more astute than it initially appears. Hornby out-performed Dia last season in aerial duels, shot accuracy and expected goals. Of which the latter two metrics could be significant for Reims, who ranked in the bottom half of Ligue 1 for shots per 90 and dead last for shot accuracy last season. Hornby’s ability to to hit the target (doing so with 55% of his shots in Belgium) and convert chances (his 0.36 goal rate comes against an xG of 0.37) with the few opportunities Reims create could prove to be crucial. The 20-year-old Scot aligns perfectly with Reims’ youthful recruitment strategy too. Dia was fished out of France's fourth-tier as a 21-year-old in 2018 and in 2019, 10 of their 11 summer recruits were aged 23 and below.

Reims are an ambitious club, overachievers, who have developed a reputation for their clever transfer dealings and youth development. In Guion, they have one of Europe’s most promising head coaches at the helm, a tactician in the Mourinho and Simeone mould. A man who knows exactly what he wants from his players and just how to get it. Hornby’s switch overseas may have come as a surprise to you and I but to those in the known in Northern France it’s simply another prudent deal by one of Ligue 1’s most competent outfits. Moving to the defensive fortress that is the Stade Auguste-Delaune may not seem like the ideal post-Premier League landing spot for a 20-year-old striker at first glance. But when you’re hand-picked by the present-day Rouge et Blanc, it’s not by chance and for Hornby, it might well be the perfect springboard for his fledgeling career.

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]]>Fraser Hornby’s Fit At Stade de ReimsFeaturesByron HutchisonSat, 09 May 2020 18:30:00 +0000https://www.footballfromafar.com/words/the-ryan-gauld-renaissance-dundee-united-scotland-to-sporting-lisbon-and-portugal5eb34d38e237c57981fb5adf:5eb35b8e3c6a9e5e955f9645:5eb4a0b1ef2f477a39525650Ryan Gauld was Scotland’s “Mini-Messi” according to the haphazard headlines back in 2014 and after a breakout season, a blockbuster move to Portuguese powerhouse Sporting Clube de Portugal followed. Now, some six years, four loan spells and a transfer down a division later, Gauld’s turbulent spell on the Iberian peninsula is finally coming good.

09/05/2020 by Byron Hutchison

I was living in Dundee when Ryan Gauld first caught the eye in what is now a revered Dundee United side. A student at the time, the prospect of concession tickets and some, by all accounts, quality football was enough to get me through the Tannadice gates on six or seven occasions during the 2013-2014 season. Even at that early stage, Gauld’s talent wasn’t totally unknown. The then 18-year-old had already scored on his first senior start, aged 17, and had reached double figures in appearances the previous season.

Playing alongside a showman in Gary Mackay-Steven, a mercurial striker in Nadir Çiftçi, a midfield maestro in Stuart Armstrong, a future internationalist in the budding John Souttar and, even then, an undeniable Andrew Robertson. The young Ryan Gauld stood out; his immaculate first touch, his spellbinding close control, his eye for a through-ball and his savant-like ability to weight each one just right. He was special. I distinctly remember watching him from my seat at the half-way line, on a typically drab October afternoon, pick the ball up on the inside-right channel, shift it a few yards on to his left foot and slam it into the top corner from all of 25-yards against St Mirren. His giddy celebration as his teammates held him aloft serving as the only reminder that it was he who was in fact, the boy amongst men on that day.

That game marked the start of a sensational run of form for both Dundee United and Gauld. A spell from October to December 2014 that saw the Tangerines go seven-matches unbeaten with the young prospect netting four goals and laying on six assists, despite playing in just six of the aforementioned fixtures. Links to Real Madrid ran rampant and rumours of Manchester United and Liverpool scouts descending on Tannadice to catch a glimpse of Scotland’s next superstar began to drift from Hilltown to Perth Road as the season progressed. Ultimately, Gauld’s breakout campaign culminated in heartbreak as Dundee United suffered a Scottish Cup final defeat to St Johnstone. By that time, however, his stock had already peaked and in the summer a headline-grabbing £3,000,000 move to Portugal was sealed.

Lisbon’s Latest Lion

Expectations were high, both in Scotland and Portugal upon Gauld’s arrival in Lisbon. The general consensus being that this was a bold and intelligent move for the young playmaker. His small stature and technical style - crafted by fellow Scot Ian Cathro, lest we forget - would be better suited to the Portuguese game thought most. Couple that with his new club’s track-record for producing talent - think Luis Figo, Cristiano Ronaldo and new team-mate Nani. And it was agreed, Gauld was on the path to greatness. Sporting’s boss at the time, Marco Silva, believed he had a talent on his hands too.

The much-reported £48,000,000 buy-out clause aside, Silva made his feelings clear in early September by naming Gauld in his 25-man Champions League squad. Throughout his first season in Europe’s second oldest capital city, Gauld’s progress was promising. Racking up 26 appearances in LigaPro for the Leões reserves - Sporting CP B, alongside the likes of Gelson Martins and Daniel Podence. He would also excel for the first-team in the Taça da Liga (League Cup), bagging himself a brace against Belenenses SAD and putting in a man-of-the-match display against Porto’s other top-flight outfit, Boavista. His two Liga Nos appearances in the second half of the campaign provided the icing on the cake of what was a solid first 12 months. That early growth, however, would be stunted the following season.

Even though he had lifted the Taça de Portugal (The Portuguese Cup) - the club’s first silverware in six years, Marco Silva was unceremoniously sacked on June 4th, 2015. The reason cited by Sporting at the time was farcical and indicative of the turmoil that would envelop the club for the remainder of Gauld’s contract. Silva’s failure to wear the official club suit during a match six months prior was the given justification. It didn’t take long for the club’s true rational to come to the fore. Jorge Jesus, boss of cross-town rivals Benfica, fresh from winning back-to-back league and cup doubles was ready to jump ship. In the face of Silva’s relative success, the Sporting board thought that to dismiss him was the correct course of action if they were to see the Portuguese title return to the Estádio José Alvalade.

Jesus was unveiled as the new Sporting manager on June 5th, 2015, just one day after Silva’s dismissal. He had been brought in to win-now and this saw a shift in focus for the club renowned for its youth development. Sporting acquired the likes of Alberto Aquilani (31), Teófilo Gutiérrez (30) and Bryan Ruiz (29) that summer. Gauld would make a further 38 LigaPro appearances for Sporting CP B in the 2015-16 season - an experience which he has since spoken fondly of. His involvement with the first-team, however, was noticeably reduced. Limited to a solitary 90-minute stint on the bench during an early-season cup match.

From The Tagus To The Duoro

English Championship club’s circled in June 2016 as it became apparent that Gauld, now aged 20, having spent two seasons honing his craft in the reserves and in search of first-team football, was available on a temporary basis. Traversing the River Tagus, he embarked on his first loan spell in July - joining Primeira Liga side Vitória de Setúbal, just south of Lisbon. Gauld struggled to adapt to top-flight Portuguese football initially, even if he had trained regularly with the first-team while at Sporting. Enduring two months fluctuating between warming the bench and being omitted from the squad entirely before he could don his new number 44 jersey in Setúbal. After a 90-minute showcase and a convincing victory in the Taça da Liga (The Portuguese League Cup), the attacking midfielder began to see minutes in the Primeira Liga, albeit in a slightly deeper role.

The positional change was noticeable, switching from his guise as a free-roaming advanced playmaker where he had excelled for Dundee United to that of a facilitator in a midfield trio. A Carrilero in Football Manager parlance. Collecting the ball from deep and distributing it to the sides more attacking players. While the change affected Gauld’s chances of appearing in Vitória’s preferred 4-3-3 system positively - earning seven starts between October and December - his attacking edge, as is to be expected when playing in that deeper role, blunted.

Positional changes aside, Gauld was enjoying his best spell of top-flight football since his days in Dundee. Vitória sat 9th in Liga Nos, comfortably, no, exactly, mid-table and with a real chance of reaching the Taça da Liga semi-finals. The club’s cup fate would be decided in their first game after the winter break. Vitória needing a win and their opponents only a draw to advance from the group stages. In an all-or-nothing tie against none other than Sporting. Facing the mite of William Carvahlo, Bryan Ruiz and Bas Dost, and with Gauld confined to the stands, cup-tied. A valiant Vitória came out the victors. A 94th-minute penalty enough to earn them a 2-1 win, the side from the “wrong side” of the Tagus were through - but not without controversy. The penalty decision was generous, soft, some might say and Sporting took exception. Manager Jesus and goalkeeper Beto each earning post-game red cards for their protests.

The following day Ryan Gauld and his fellow Sporting loanee at Vitória - right-back André Geraldes - received a call. They were to return to Lisbon. Sporting had spitefully cancelled their loans. Geraldes and Gauld returned to their parent club immediately. Gauld would make nine more appearances for the reserves in the Portuguese second-tier that season.

It was clear, by the summer of 2017 that first-team opportunities in Lisbon would again be sparse and Gauld wasted no time seeking another loan. The Portuguese adventure continued as he moved north of the Duoro to Primeira Liga newcomers Desportivo Aves in the provincial town of Vila das Aves. Things started brightly enough for the Scotsman and by September he had forced his way into the starting eleven. Gauld’s first Primeira Liga goal came the following week, netting against Belenenses SAD, the same side he had scored a cup brace against two years prior. A mere eight-minutes into his third consecutive start, however, Gauld was sidelined with a hamstring injury that saw him miss six crucial weeks. Aves, having picked up just one win from nine matches, parted ways with head coach Ricardo Soares before Gauld’s return in a move that would derail his season. All but one of his subsequent 13 league appearances for Aves in the 2017-18 season came from the bench.

Despite Gauld’s personal frustrations, his season at Desportivo Aves would go down as the finest in the club’s history. Finishing 13th and avoiding top-flight relegation for the first time, having failed to maintain Primeira Liga status in four previous attempts. They also went on to claim the Taça de Portugal, the first major honour in their 87-year history, defeating - you guessed it - Sporting, in the final. Gauld’s contribution to the cup-run wasn’t insignificant either. During Aves’ convincing 5-1 victory in the round of 16, he grabbed himself an assist while playing the full 90-minutes before converting a penalty in a nerve-wracking quarter-final shootout against Rio Ave. Although he didn’t feature in either of the semi-final legs or the cup final itself, the Aberdonian was with the squad on the day of the final. Lifting the trophy and earning a medal for his four previous appearances during the historic run.

Back in Lisbon, the cup defeat rubber-stamped the end of a traumatic week for Gauld’s parent club. Sporting, on the final day of the top-flight season and in need of a victory to secure Champions League football, lost. The next day a group of an estimated 50 ultras clad in balaclavas stormed the club’s training centre in Alcochete, vandalising the facility while assaulting players and staff members indiscriminately. The attack made global headlines. Their cup defeat to dinky little Desportivo Aves five days later served as the final nail in the coffin of Jorge Jesus’ tempestuous two-year reign.

Home Away From Home

Things would take time to settle in Lisbon following their nightmare season finale and backroom staff exodus. The progress of their one-time prodigy had fallen into the periphery, omitted from Sporting’s pre-season squad; Gauld, once again, sought temporary refuge. The Algarve soon came calling when newly-promoted second-tier side, Sporting Clube Farense approached Sporting and a loan move was agreed. When quizzed about dropping a division, Gauld remained resolute.

The 22-year-old Gauld put the slow starts that had plagued previous loan stints behind him. He settled in Faro quickly, making his first start for the club on matchday six and remaining a fixture in the side until Christmas. Farense’s preferred midfield pairing of Vanja Markovic and Fabrico Isidoro forced the natural middle-man into yet another role. Their 4-4-2 system saw Gauld play almost exclusively as a right-midfielder, where, again, he adapted. His attacking prowess went under-utilised to some degree as he failed to muster up a single assist during his spell on the flank. His consistent, reliable performances coupled with his exemplary effort, however, kept Gauld’s name etched on coach Duarte’s team sheet.

Gauld’s brightest moment of the season would come in the final game of 2018, scoring his only two goals of the campaign - including a stunning half volley - in a 5-1 rout of U.D. Oliveirense. Farense began 2019 in 7th place, not bad for a newly promoted side. But by January 11th, Gauld had been recalled by Sporting and sent home to Scotland, Hibernian having secured his services for the second half of the season. The move brought Gauld to the forefront of Scottish football for the first time since 2014 and had fans of all allegiances curious to see what had become of the one-time wonderkid.

Sadly for Gauld and football fans across Scotland, his stay in the capital - through no fault of his own - was forgettable. Ravaged by a hamstring injury for several months he would appear in just 371 minutes of action for the Hibees, recovering in time to make one final appearance in a defeat to Rangers, before returning to Portugal. The side Gauld left behind in Faro struggled in his absence, plummeting from 7th to as low as 16th. Two consecutive wins in the final few weeks of their season saw them survive the drop and eventually scramble to 10th, in what was a tightly packed LigaPro table.

Gauld found himself at a career crossroads in 2019. An optimistic few - myself included - had hoped that Sporting’s latest incumbent Marcel Keizer would give him a chance. After all, the Dutchman had a track record of developing talent: Frenkie de Jong, Matthijs de Ligt and Justin Kluivert all spent time under his tutelage while at Jong Ajax. But with one year remaining on his six-year-mega-deal, Sporting made it clear; Gauld was free to find a new club.

Public sentiment in Scotland had soured on Gauld - unfairly so in many cases, with few knowing the ins and outs of his time in Portugal. Most have judged his career on his inability to break into Sporting’s first-team and what little they saw of him at Hibernian. It is curious, then, that the same sentiment isn’t shared among fans of Sporting. Given it was their club who made Gauld the most expensive signing of their 2014 summer transfer window. Many in Lisbon see Gauld as a lost talent, a player criminally over-looked by a series of Sporting managers, a prospect in the right club, at the wrong time. Something which has been echoed with more and more frequency in recent months.

Faro’s Rampant Lion

Speculation was rife back home in Scotland, moves to the likes of Rangers and home-town club Aberdeen however, never materialised. Instead, it would be Gauld’s Portuguese connections that would provide him with his first post-Sporting landing spot. André Geraldes, - not to be confused with Gauld’s previously mentioned team-mate of the same name - a former director at Sporting had taken up the role of CEO at Farense in November 2018 while Gauld was on loan at the Algarve club. It was Geraldes who called Gauld to make him aware of Farense’s interest in signing him permanently.

The decision was a simple one for the Scotsman who is now fluent in Portuguese and eligible for Portuguese citizenship. Gauld had bought into the club’s ambition prior to his initial loan spell and during his time in Faro found he enjoyed the football, the golf and the general way of life on the Algarve. On July 15th 2019 he signed permanently with the Leões de Faro (Lions of Faro).

In spite of a managerial change since Gauld’s last appearance for the club, he began life at Farense as he left it, on the flank in a 4-4-2. New boss Sérgio Vieira and team wasted no time in ascending to the top of LigaPro this season and Gauld served as an important cog in the wheel of that early success. Farense won nine of their first eleven matches to kickstart the campaign with Gauld - who missed the start of the season with a broken rib - playing in 80 minutes or more of the seven games he was available for.

His position in the team morphed from game-to-game and by October he found himself fluctuating between a role on the wing of a 4-4-2 or in the centre of the attack as a free-roaming playmaker in a 4-4-1-1. Individual statistics began to reflect the Scotsman’s performances and more advanced role as he notched back-to-back assists in the league and a further two in the Taça de Portugal. Gauld’s first goal of the season came during a 3-1 victory in November. Pouncing on a loose ball before dinking it over the on-rushing Varzim S.C. goalkeeper from close range.

It hasn’t been all plain sailing however, at the turn of the year, Farense hit a rocky patch. An injury to Brazilian midfielder Fabrício Isidoro seemingly the catalyst for a downturn in form. Isidoro’s absence forced Farense to deploy Gauld deeper in midfield. Missing their midfield anchor and without Gauld’s creativity further forward, the Algarvian’s won just once in their first five-games without Isidoro - scoring a single goal while conceding seven.

The Leões form would show signs of recovery on matchday 18 against LigaPro basement-dwellers Casa Pia AC. Vieira’s side took to the field depleted by injury, missing both club captain Cássio Scheid as well as Isidoro - who regularly serves as vice-captain. On the day, it was Gauld who, for the first time in his career, would be entrusted with the armband. A revitalised Farense took the lead in the first half through winger Arnold Issoko. Before, in the 93rd minute, captain Gauld secured the points. Darting into the right-hand side of the penalty area to receive the ball from veteran striker Fabrício Simões before quickly shuffling it onto his right foot and striking low, across the goalkeeper. The goal, his second of the campaign, would ignite an incredible run of form - Gauld’s best since the one triggered by that wonder strike against St Mirren, on a gloomy day in 2014.

A defeat to high-flying Estoril followed before, in a draw with FC Porto’s B side, Gauld once again scored. Isidoro returned to the squad for the subsequent match and while he would reclaim the armband from Gauld, his presence allowed Sérgio Vieira to restore the Scotsman to his more natural role behind the striker. Gauld claimed an assist in a 3-1 win over UD Oliveirense, before going on to score a brace against Vilafranquense the following week.

His short stint as captain appears to have had an effect on the diminutive playmakers overall game. Both during and since his spell with the armband Gauld has played with a newfound maturity and confidence, grabbing games by the horns and leading by example, often driving his team to results single-handedly.

On February 29th, against Académico Viseu FC, he scored his first career hattrick. His leadership and composure on full display as he stepped up and dispatched not one, but two spot-kicks either side of a near-post diving header to rally the Leões back from a 1-0 deficit. Just one week later, for the seventh time in five outings, Gauld would again leave his mark on the scoresheet as Farense looked to their star-man to dig out a result. Trailing 1-0 to northerners Leixões SC with just seven minutes remaining, midfielder Hugo Seco found Gauld lurking at the edge of the box and with a confident sweep of his left foot, he looped the ball into the top right-hand corner. It was Gauld’s finest goal of the season and such was his confidence, he reeled off in celebration before the net had even rippled.

Scotland’s Ryan Gauld

If you’ve lost count - and I’d forgive you if you have - that’s a five-game stretch in which Gauld scored seven goals and provided one assist, for a total of eight goal contributions. A tally that could only be matched by two other Scotsman (playing in a first or second division) over a five-game spell in the 2019-20 season; Lawrence Shankland and Kevin Nisbet. Two players who, like Gauld, were playing in a second-tier league - the Scottish Championship - but who, unlike Gauld, are out and out strikers.

It is disappointing if not unsurprising that while Nisbet was linked with a big-money move to Rangers (before finally moving to Hibernian for a six-figure sum) and Shankland is not only playing but scoring for the Scotland national team. Gauld remains a peripheral figure in the Scottish football zeitgeist, despite his undeniable form. Perhaps it’s because he is less accessible, in far off Portugal? Or maybe the quality of the Portuguese second division doesn’t stand up to the Scottish Championship for some? Who knows. In any case, while there, Gauld can only beat what is in front of him and in 2020, he beat LigaPro to a pulp.

The postponement of football worldwide due to Covid-19 and the on-going global pandemic, couldn’t have come at a worse time for both the Scotsman and his club. Farense sat comfortably within an automatic promotion spot and just two points behind first place CD Nacional. While Gauld was enjoying his finest run of form to date. Uncertainty continues to surround both football and life in general at the time of writing, with governing bodies and football associations around the world scrambling to come up with contingency plans. On May 5th, however, the Liga Portuguesa de Futebol Profissional - or LPFP - announced that the 2019/2020 LigaPro season was over and that the current standings would be taken as final. Farense and Gauld have been promoted. The club and the player’s fine season, justly rewarded.

Promotion to the Primeira Liga will see Gauld play at the highest level he has ever played at should the 2020/2021 season go ahead as hoped. The Portuguese top-flight currently ranks 6th on UEFA’s country coefficient list, just one spot behind France’s Ligue 1 and eight places above the Scottish Premiership, which itself has seen a significant jump in its ranking over the past 12 months. The chance to play against the likes of FC Porto, SL Benfica and of course, Sporting, is one the relentless Gauld will surely relish. One would hope it may provide him with the platform to finally stake a claim for the Scottish national team as well.

Regardless of Farense’s now confirmed promotion, Gauld’s LigaPro performances will have undoubtedly had him on the radar of many a top-flight side. The initial deal that took the Scotsman to Faro is set to see him remain with the Leões until the summer of 2021 - or potentially 2022, with the club smartly including the option for a one-year extension. The £3.6 million release clause that was also agreed to, however, may yet tempt some of the countries big-hitters to take a swing on Gauld. With the 24-year-old talisman now approaching his peak footballing years.

While The dream of one day finding a Caledonian Messi clone with a Scots accent slaloming past defenders on a marshy field in a provincial Scottish town may live on for some. Here, in reality, where the realisation that Gauld may not be the next Lionel Messi was enough for many to write him off. His emergence as the first Ryan Gauld is enough for me. A talented, tenacious, technical marvel, who is only just beginning to show the world exactly what he is capable of.

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]]>The Ryan Gauld Renaissance