Re-Draft Rankings
QB|RB|WR|TE

Draft Dual #1
Michael Turner (1.03 ADP) vs. Matt Forte(1.04 ADP)
League Type: New Dynasty

The Participants: Royaltee and Kelloggs23 are both members of the Football Jabber forums and have participated in Football Jabber leagues of all sorts for four years now.  They faced off in the Championship of the Football Jabber Charter Dynasty league a season ago.

The What If: It’s a new draft in a first year Dynasty league.  You are up in the first round and Michael Turner and Matt Forte are the best available RBs left on your board.  Who do you take?

Kelloggs23 says:

“Picking between Michael Turner & Matt Forte as a dynasty running back is not a fun task. Both are on good offensive teams and only 1 year to base their fantasy potential off of. In my opinion, I would definitely go with Turner although I would not be disappointed with Forte. The positives with Turner outweigh the negatives and I think that he will continue to be their main back along with getting all of the goaline carries. The scary part for me with Forte is that I have seen many rookie RBs fizzle out due to both injuries and just plain production. Also the addition of Cutler will lead the Bears to pass more and the NFC North defenses are built to stop the run. Turner gets to run behind a great line with a solid QB knowing that defenses have to respect the pass, but he is still the focal point of the offense and will rack up both yards and touchdowns. Age is hardly a factor here as Turner is 3 years older, but he doesn’t have 3 years of wear on his body as he got to back-up LT giving him the same tread as Forte, just with more experience.”

Royaltee says:

“Both players are a top 5 lock in every draft this year and both are expected to build on their impressive 2008 seasons. Both running backs have young and upcoming quarterbacks directing the offense. Both running backs are the centerpiece of their respective team’s offense. Michael Turner is obviously not going to be carrying the ball over 377 times again this year and all reports indicate that the Falcons would like to get Jerious Norwood more involved. Turner will be a hard sit during games, so I doubt Norwood will be getting much more than his usual 100 carries a season. The bigger detriment to Turner’s value may actually come from Matt Ryan as the Falcons look to open up the offense to keep pace with the high scoring teams of the NFC South.

Matt Forte’s dynasty value gets a bonus because he is 4 years younger, although Turner is a very young 27 being a first time starter last year. In PPR leagues, Forte is easily a top three selection recording 60+ receptions his rookie season, while Turner isn’t even an option in the Falcons passing game. Forte’s 1700 total yards in 2008 is even more amazing, considering the sorry lot of QB’s he had handing him the ball. Now that the Bears have Jay Cutler, Forte’s will have much more room to operate. Kevin Jones is getting a lot of good OTA press, but the oft-injured former starter is no more than a role player and I suspect will only affect Forte’s value, as much as Norwood affects Turners. In the end, the choice between these two is extremely close and probably comes, but for me, Forte gets the dynasty edge over Turner in either format.”

What do you say reader? Please take the poll.  If you would like to get in on Draft Dual, join the forums and post your interest!

Average Draft Position taken from Fantasy Football Calculator.

More from Royaltee at The Endzone View.

I love high level competition so I’m looking forward to defending that total points crown.  As the draft starts I’ll keep Jabberheads up on how it is unfolding, as well as the quest through the season for revenge.  Football Jabber drew the #3 pick this season.  Not a big fan of drafting that early but we will make it work, right?  Here is a look at the first round order…

1 - FFToolbox.com
2 - WalterFootball.Com
3 - FootballJabber.Com
4 - MonsterDraft.Com
5 - FantasyFootballWhiz.Com
6 - FantasySportsCentral.Com
7 - RotoWorld.Com
8 - JunkyardJake.Com
9 - FantasyIndex.Com
10 - FFJungle.Com
11 - Fantasy Sharks Radio
12 - FantasyFootballXtreme.Com

#1 Patrick Willis (3-4 ILB), 49ers-

“No question here. Willis is the top dog among LBs, this guy can single handedly win games for you with astronomical tackle stats as well as big play potential.”

#6 Karlos Dansby (4-3 WLB/3-4 ILB), Cardinals-

“Always a big play LB that has improved his solo tackles steadily over the past three years. Dansby is arguably became the best defensive player on his team over safety Adrian Wilson. Dansby will once again be the focal point of a great attacking defense centered on big plays and turnovers.”

#11 Curtis Lofton (4-3 MLB), Falcons-

“I’m projecting a big jump for this guy and before you guys start writing your homer accusations in the comments, hear me out. Curtis Lofton led the league in points scored per defensive snap. The only thing that held him back was his limited snaps. This year will be different with Keith Brooking and Michael Boley gone. Lofton will be a 3-down LB and will have the stats to back it up.”

#26 James Laurinaitis (4-3 MLB), Rams-

“The Rams Mike job has top 10 potential but Chris Draft is still running with the ones in OTAs. Little Animal needs to step up, take the job and show he can perform.”

#33 Nick Barnett (3-4 ILB), Packers-

“How the mighty have fallen. Barnett was a consensus top 10 LB last year but a ripped up knee and a position change to the Ted backer in Dom Capers 3-4 defense have reduced him to a LB3.”

View the complete TOP 50 rankings HERE—>

I got to thinking, why not do the same with defense? Sure, there is a greater measure of chance when it comes to predicting defensive stats. Plays are rarely designed to incorporate defensive players into the game (with the exception of blitzes or robber zones); in fact, often the opposite occurs as the offense gameplans to keep the ball away from an impact player on the defense. IDPs are usually matched up man-on-man or assigned gaps or zones and only the offense determines where the ball goes. In that respect, defense is rather difficult to predict. That being said, I still think that the cream regularly rises to the top regardless of how the offense chooses to address the defense it is playing against. I believe that scheme and talent have a greater part in determining IDP production than sheer opportunity, although opportunity is a big contributor.

How it works:

I used ATAP/AOTAOP LB scoring for this because I’m in both leagues. I also find it to be extremely balanced compared to most polar tackle or big play IDP scoring. http://football10.myfantasyleague.com/2009/options?L=10736&O=09 The scoring is probably a little different than your leagues in small ways but I think the underlying point remains.

I operated under the assumption that LB1 scoring was top 10, LB2 scoring was top 20 and LB3 scoring was top 30. The percentage indicates the ratio of top 10, top 20 and top 30 LB scoring games (versus all other LBs for that week) to the total number of games played by that LB in the year. I would have liked to incorporate milestones into the model to more accurately reflect other models for consistency rankings but because there are so many way to score points as a LB, it was difficult to distinguish what stats were considered milestones.

Therefore if Barrett Ruud shows 75% in the Top 30% column, that means that in 75% of his games last year, he was at least a top 30 LB for those weeks.

Here it is, sorted to top 30%. Some names won’t surprise you, some will.
(Hang on, may take a few seconds to load).

Interesting tidbits

- The top LB of the year, Patrick Willis, was not in the top 15 most consistent top 30 scorers. However, six of his eight consistency ranking games were in the top 10 with the remaining two in the top 20. However, that means that in eight of his games, he did not finish in the top 30 for that week.

- Paul Posluszny (24th in total scoring amongst LBs) was actually a more consistent top 30 scorer than Patrick Willis, DJ Williams (12th in PPG) and James Farrior (12th in total scoring amongst LBs) but only had one top 20 LB scoring game all year.

- Scott Fujita was ranked 7th amongst consistency scoring in the top 10. All four of his rankings games were top 10 finishes for that week.

- Only four 3-4 OLBs were in the top 40 of consistency rankings for top 30 %; James Harrison (4th), DeMarcus Ware (11th), Calvin Pace (25th) and LaMarr Woodley (33th).

FantasyFootball.com will not be charging for their Platinum Package in 2009.  All the tools and resources that used to go for a fee will be free this year.

The Bruno Boys offer up some RBs that may fly under the radar year when it comes to fantasy football draft time.  I have to say that I was just thinking about the lack of love for a couple of these guys the other day.

What to do with those breakout RB from last season?  Draft high?  One year wonder?  Frank Mazzola at Pro Fantasy Sports has some ideas.

KFFL’s “Characteristics of Succesful Wide Recievers” is an interesting read, looking at the catchers from different angels.

The Wide Receiver show for the New York Giants is going to be a toss up, as you know.  Rotoworld shakes the names up and pulls some out based on how mini-camps panned out.

More WR stuff.  Sons of the Tundra have some WR Dynasty Rankings.  They have been up a while but you can count on them still be good if these guys have not updated yet.

Without really planning it this is becoming a WR post today.  Here are some WRs that are heading into their third (supposed to be the breakout) year from FF Toolbox.

Seriously…Start/Sit is starting already over at Fantasy Football Xtreme.  You can just smell it in the air, can’t you?

Note:  The Fantasy Football Dynasty Rankings take into consideration starting status as you are drafting for a Fantasy Football Dynasty League now as well as the next three years.  You are in your Dynasty League for at least that long , right?

#1.  Drew Brees: That’s right folks.  Until proven otherwise there is a new sheriff in Fantasy Football QB Dynasty town, and his name is Drew Brees.  Yes, Tom Brady will be back this year…but he isn’t back yet.  Peyton Manning is consistent but will face some changes now and has not finished as the top fantasy back in years.  Brees is clicking and it appears it will keep clicking for at elast the next couple of years.

#7 Jay Cutler/#8 Matt Ryan: This is an interesting spot.  If there was more than one season to go by and more of a need to pass may have went with Ryan over Cutler here.  Both have a decent running game and should in coming seasons.  Ryan has by far the better group catching the ball but unless they are in a shootout in one of the two games with the Saints may run the ball more.  This will require further debate… VOTE ON WHO YOU WOULD TAKE HERE!

#12 Kurt Warner: What?!?  Kurt Warner way down here?  What a steal, huh?  Well, you have to consider if you want a QB in your dynasty league who may be retired in the next year or two as your top gun.  If you take Warner as your top QB you better spend another pick earlier than usual to have a good prospect behind him.  There are some that would put this too high for Warner but you do want to win right away too, right?

#18 Matt Cassel:  Something just doesn’t sit right with me for Cassel.  I think it’s because he was in a position last season with a lot of talent around him that he will not have in Kansas City.  He very well could prove me wrong.  For now I need a little more proof.  He will fit in as a nice #2 Dynasty QB on your squad.  After about halfway through 2009 you may know what you really have in him.

Continue on to the rankings—>

Drag, Drop, and Print

Old school spreadsheets.  That is what fantasy football draft prep is all about, right?    There will be people that will never stray from their spreadsheets, and there is nothing wrong with that (I use them).  For people that don’t want to deal with them or spreadsheet guys that don’t mind a little change, I have something for you today that can make your fantasy football ranking a little more fun and easy on the eyes.

Last season I told you about Cheatsheet Warroom.  Here you can create fantasy football rankings using a “drag and drop” feature and then print them out.  Here is where Spreadsheet Guy may say something like “Well, I can do that with my spreadsheet…”  Sure you can.  You can also copy and paste last seasons stats for every player and where they rank on a couple other sites…or you could use this tool that already has that in there.

Here are some of the appealing components of the Cheetsheet Warroom drag and drop rankings…

• Supplemental rankings from CBS Sports and NFL.com give you a little visual where the player ranks in comparison to your own.
• Years experience and bye week are listed directly under the player name.
• Handy little buttons for Sleeper, Bust, or Injured that can be toggled off and on.  Nice for updating through camp.
• 2008 season stats (adjustable 2007-2009 in settings) listed with player.
• Spot for creating notes.

When it comes time for your draft you can print your rankings out using two different options…

• Single sheet with an integrated roster box for you to write your players in.
• Two sheets with more players listed and the roster sheet on the second page.

As long as you are registered you can go back and edit/update your rankings as much as you like.  Someone gets injured in camp?  Go back and click that “injured” button, drag’em down the rankings, drop’em, and then jot a little note how long they will be out.

Spreadsheets offer a lot of sorting functionality and familiarity for those that use them.  They are not for everyone though, and Cheetsheet Warroom offers an appealing alternative for those fantasy football owners that want to be more organized.

When I arrived at Fantasy Football Calculator I had about five minutes to pick my spot (took the number 6 pick) and pre-rank some players.  Didn’t have much to work off of but I did have an idea in mind.  The last mock I did I made a pick out of my own fantasy character and took Peyton Manning in the second round.  I have never really been a Manning guy but thought I should take him later on in the second.  Although my team came out pretty good I had an uneasy feeling when I didn’t get some of the people I would have loved to have that fell before my third rounder.  SO ANYWAY, this time I wanted to see how long I could go without a QB and wanted to do the old fashioned two RB in the first two rounds.

I was extremely pleased with how my two first picks panned out at the #6, Steven Jackson and Brian Westbrook.  I had a feeling of satisfaction at RB I did not have in the past Mock but things got weird in the next two rounds.   Ten WRs had went off the board by the time I was ready to pick in the 3rd.  Anquan Boldin is a stud, we know, but you still have an uneasy feeling with the whole thing in Arizona for the guy to be your #1 WR.  Then in the second the best WR available was Braylon Edwards.  Braylon and I did not get along last season.  Had Kurt Warner not been picked just before me I may have taken my QB then.  But this is for science anyway, we will wait!

I was able to add Antonio Gates in the 5th to round out my core starters outside of QB.  I would really like to see Gates pick it back up.  I had a really hard time between Gates and Gonzo.  I think Gonzo can be a big target for Matt Ryan.

So let’s get to that QB thing, shall we?  I almost took Donovan McNabb instead of Gates…but I was testing things, right?  Well, he went off the board three picks before my next pick.  Next target…Tony Romo.  Nope…he went the pick after McNabb.  I decided to hold off a round.  Matt Ryan and Jay Cutler go off before my next pick.  I was feeling good when it looked like Carson Palmer was going to fall to me in the 8th round but he went off two picks before me.  I pulled the trigger in the 8th round on Eli Manning.  Not really the guy I want leading my fantasy team.  Two rounds later I added David Garrard, who I was big on last year…until the season played out.

Moral of the story…if I had it to do over again (and I will next week) I would not wait past the 7th round, at least not where I was picking in the middle.  There were five QB’s taken in the 8th round so you could beat a run going in the 7th.   I’m really noticing that you cannot wait on WR these days either.  It was nice getting those two RB but I would have felt better getting a sure thing catcher.

Some other observations…

• The first round played out like:  Adrian Peterson, Matt Forte, Maurice Jones-Drew, L. Tomlinson, Michael Turner, Steven Jackson, Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, Steve Slaton, Chris Johnson, Randy Moss, DeAngelo Williams.
• How often do you see two texans in the first round?
• Some Michael Turner fans are going to love seeing him still around at #5.
• Tom Brady (#14) and Drew Brees (#15) were the top passers taken.  None in the first round this time around.
• Greg Jennings went at #17, before the middle of the second round.
• Watching Joseph Addai, Willie Parker, and Larry Johnson fall to the 5th round makes you realize how much things can change within a couple years.  How far off are we before we see L.T. going in the 6th while he is playing for the Lions or something?
• Mentioned above, there were five QB’s taken in the 8th round.  Making the 7th round the latest you wait might make you the start of a run.
• I like to take note of when the first Defense was taken.  The Steelers went with the first pick in the 9th.

As we discussed in previous posts, FootballGuys.com has a FREE Rate My Team application that is pretty much awesome.  For the record they pretty much agreed that I was set with RB but lacked at QB and WR.

So kids, tune in next week as we do it again trying some other ideas on a whim.  You can always go do a Mock yourself at Fantasy Football Calculator and let us know how yours came out!

First stop is over at FantasyFootballCalculator.com (Weird…almost a year to the day I wrote on that last year).  It’s early in the season but it is already hopping!  I jumped in somewhat unprepared…well…a lot unprepared since I was just sitting on the couch when I decided to jump up and do one.  Within 2 minutes of landing on the site I had a draft starting.  Talk about instant gratification!  After my third round pick of Peyton Manning I realize things are already not going to go as planned.  I’m not usually a “Manning Taker” by any means.  Midway through the 3rd round it seemed the thing to do though.  Anyway, this is okay because I know that what I’m doing with this draft is using it to see how Part Two of our tasty fantasy football treat rates it.

Footballguys.com recently released their new “Rate My Team” application on the FREE page.  It’s pretty simple and straight forward.  Enter the players in and then adjust some scoring (which I put the scoring from FFC in since that is what I think the other owners would have been taking into consideration) and WALA!  No, it does not give you a “7 on a scale of 1-10″ type rating.  These guys go all out.  Here are some of the things they are going to give you…

• An overview of your team.
• Percentage of chance they give you for making the playoffs in your league.
• Summary on each position, how they feel about your starters and depth.
• A schedule analysis for each player, who should start which weeks.
• Possible free agents that may be better than the bottom feeders you have.
• Projections and player summaries.
• Player news for your players over the last seven days.

I have to say that the Football Guys were not nearly as hard on me as I was myself.  They gave me a 90% chance to make the playoffs (4 out of 12 teams make it) with great in season management (85% with good, 74% with average) and called my team the league favorite as long as I stay on top of my team.

I really like the Free Agent suggestions.  They even go as far as to grey out the players that won’t work with your current starters bye weeks.  It also shows where your depth players sit in comparison to players that may be available.

There you have it!  Fantasy Football Calculator FREE Mock Drafts + FootballGuys.com FREE “Rate My Team” application=FREE Fantasy Football Fun for the summer to hold you over as you wait for your drafts to begin!

Speaking of Free and Fantasy Football…stay tuned as Football Jabber throws all kinds of free resources to help you dominate your league in 2009!  Subscribe to the RSS feed or email to be sure you do not miss anything.