For Bulls- Only the News that Confirm Bullish Outlook

SOS Limitd (AKA Chinese Scam ;). Author presents a case for $SOS to trade at about $120 per ADS and be a $10B company

2021-03-01T20:45:00.001-08:00

Such a bullish note, about the stock which seems....no comments.

OS may soon become one of the largest cryptocurrency miners in the public markets based upon number of miners and daily revenues generated from mining.
SOS will benefit from the advantages of reduced hydroelectric power in China.
SOS may be the only publicly traded company that's mining Ethereum, the second largest cryptocurrency.
SOS has stated plans to pioneer cryptocurrency financial services, including insurance and cryptocurrency loans, among other services.
SOS has assembled a premier management team that has decades of experience on Wall Street and with U.S.-China publicly-traded corporate operations.
The recent recapitalization of SOS will enable the company to achieve both of its stated goals of building revenues in its legacy business, while ramping up revenues in its newly entered cryptocurrency space.

In view of this substantial operational improvement for SOS, 300% YOY revenue growth for this microcap may be achievable for 2021 estimates. Factoring in the significantly reduced cost of energy from SOS's hydro-electric power generation deal, and the revaluation of SOS shares higher could become very significant.

All of these exciting developments have not escaped the early notice of the WallStreetBets crowd on Reddit. SOS has begun to show up on the radar of the wsbtrackers.com. The graphic below indicates that SOS is on the WSB radar now, and gaining traction. We all know how important social media sentiment can be for a stock today. We also know that the recently increased short interest in SOS can be an attractive target for bulls who have performed proper due diligence on this SOS trade.

The bear thesis on this SOS short seems to be limited to the repetition of the falsehood that SOS is a Chinese scam. This is why I have gone to some lengths to introduce the management of SOS, as they each carry an impeccable resume of credibility, experience, and success on Wall Street and in China for decades. After reading the biographies/resumes of each of the key team members of SOS management, we can certainly put the falsehood of SOS being a "Chinese scam" to rest. SOS is a very solid, legitimate, and soon to be highly successful new entry into the cryptocurrency space.

It would make good sense for the WSB/Reddit crowd to target the short interest in SOS and ride this trade from the $6 range into the $20 range in the near term.

Longer term SOS is likely to accumulate some reasonable amount of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and launch its crypto financial services division, while also improving revenues from the legacy business. Perhaps 24 months out, we might deem it to be reasonable that the market cap of SOS could exceed the current market cap of RIOT and MARA combined. If this type of growth were to occur for SOS over the next 24 months, or so, then this very bullish valuation for SOS would assign a $10B market cap.

Although future offerings are likely for SOS, the current share count would trade at about $120 per ADS. Candidly, as you perform your due diligence and calculate valuations relative to SOS's peers in this crypto space, this bullish target for $120 is not unreasonable. Of course, if Bitcoin and Ethereum continue their volatile march to higher prices during the next 24 months, then increase the $120 price target for SOS accordingly. If these cryptos decline in price from current levels over the next two years, then reduce.

SOS Limited Brings Strong U.S.-China Management Into Cryptocurrency Space (NASDAQ:MARA) | Seeking Alpha

SOS Limited Brings Strong U.S.-China Management Into Cryptocurrency Space (NASDAQ:MARA)

SOS plans to mine both Bitcoin and Ethereum. SOS may be the first company to offer crypto insurance, crypto loans, and other crypto-related financial services in the months ahead.

seekingalpha.com

If there is a market pullback, it's 'absolutely an unqualified buying opportunity': Heritage Capital's Paul Schatz

2020-11-26T18:50:00.001-08:00

If there is a market pullback, it's 'absolutely an unqualified buying opportunity': Heritage Capital's Paul Schatz

https://finance.yahoo.com/video/market-pullback-absolutely-unqualified-buying-204556185.html

Japan's big public funds adopt GPIF's equity-heavy asset allocation targets

2015-03-23T15:01:00.001-07:00

Three large pension funds for public employees in Japan on Friday signed on to the equity-heavy asset allocation targets announced last October by the ¥137 trillion ($1.13 trillion) Government Pension Investment Fund, Tokyo.

In an announcement released Friday, the ¥18.9 trillion Pension Fund Association for Local Government Officials, the ¥7.6 trillion Federation of National Public Service Personnel Mutual Aid Associations and the ¥3.85 trillion Promotion and Mutual Aid Corporation for Private Schools of Japan adopted the GPIF's "model portfolio" weightings of 35% for Japanese bonds, 25% apiece for domestic and international equities, and 15% for foreign bonds.

Those moves were in line with a government push to equalize the pension burdens and benefits for private and public employees in Japan, with a target date set to unify the country's bifurcated system in October.

The move into higher risk, higher reward territory announced by the GPIF on Oct. 31 — against the backdrop of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's push to wrench Japan's economy out of a prolonged deflationary spiral — marked a dramatic shift from the giant pension fund's prior targets of 60% Japanese bonds, 12% each domestic and international equities, 11% foreign bonds and 5% for cash.

Japan's three other big public pension funds, meanwhile, had previous targets for domestic bonds that ranged between 64% and 80% of their portfolios.

The biggest, the Pension Fund Association for Local Government Officials, previously targeted 64% Japanese bonds, 14% domestic stocks, 11% international stocks, 10% foreign bonds and 1% cash.

The pension fund's actual allocation as of the March 31, 2014, close of the prior fiscal year was 57.3% Japanese bonds, 16.1% domestic stocks, 13.7% international stocks, 11.1% foreign bonds and 1.8% cash.

Full article at:

http://www.pionline.com/article/20150320/ONLINE/150329999

This sector is a 'massive buying opportunity'

2014-12-03T06:22:00.001-08:00

(I really don't think it is a massive buying opportunity but when someone feels so bullish, I like it to take him on record. I have never in my life seen "absolute buying opportunity".)

Oil isn't falling by itself – it's taking the whole energy sector with it.

In fact, energy is the only S&P 500 sector down on the year. It has lost 8.5 percent year-to-date and is off19 percent from its 52-week highs. This happened as the price of a barrel of U.S. crude oil dropped from $107 to $67 in under six months.

Yet some on Wall Street aren't down on the sector's prospects.

"I'm a massive buyer here," said David Seaburg, head of sales trading at Cowen and Company. "At these levels, I think it's an absolute buying opportunity."

Seaburg sees two factors that make the energy sector promising. First is that he expects oil supplies to eventually respond, leading to a stability in prices at the very least. Second, Seaburg said exploration and production (E&P) companies are reducing their capital expenditures.

"We're in a spot right now that's essentially a sweet spot," he said. "A lot of these dedicated energy hedge funds get a tap on the shoulder by their risk departments saying 'Get out of these trades'. They exited pretty aggressively and others followed suit. I think it's well overdone here and I think it should be bought aggressively here."

"This isn't a five-year trade," Seaburg said. "You're going to look back in six months and say 'I wish I got involved here'. The real money is made when the pain is at its most. We're at that point right now. So I'm looking for higher levels."

Full article at: http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/talking-numbers/this-sector-is-a--massive-buying-opportunity-232432985.html

Bullish news for Japan stocks. Japanese Govt pension fund more than doubles equity allocation, slices domestic bonds

2014-11-03T16:26:00.002-08:00

Japan's ¥127.3 trillion ($1.14 trillion) Government Pension Investment Fund, Tokyo, on Friday announced its targeted allocations to equities would more than double to account for half of its investment portfolio, while domestic bonds would see their allocation target slashed to 35% from 60%.

A news release posted on the GPIF's website after the Tokyo stock market closed Friday described the new asset allocation targets as appropriate for an economy emerging from a prolonged period of deflation.

Under the new plan, target allocations for domestic equities and international equities will more than double to 25% each, from 12% each under the GPIF's previous asset allocation plan.

The pension fund's target for international bonds will likewise rise to 15% from 11% under the old plan.

The combined 30-percentage-point gain for those three asset segments will come at the expense of a 25-percentage-point drop in allocations to domestic bonds and the elimination of a prior 5% cash target.

The news release said a maximum 5% allocation to alternatives such as infrastructure, private equity and real estate — to be made in accordance with the development of a dedicated in-house team — would not be a separate category within the GPIF's new asset allocation. Instead, those investments will be classified as domestic bonds, domestic stocks, international bonds or international stocks “depending on their risk and return profiles.”

The pension fund also will look at multiasset investments. “For example, an external manager whose expertise widely covers both international and domestic stocks is considered. Multiasset investments will be reconciled and classified into either of four asset classes when we compute a percentage of each asset class in accordance with the policy asset mix,” the release said.

Full news at http://www.pionline.com/article/20141031/ONLINE/141039969

Oil's fall picks up steam: Good for everyone, except energy producers

2014-10-14T13:10:00.001-07:00

Time to stock up on Airline stocks!

The stock market enjoyed a (very) modest relief rally Tuesday but there was no reprieve for oil prices. Brent crude slumped 4.4% to $85.02 per barrel, the lowest levei since 2010; the global benchmark is down 22% year-to-date. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate slumped 4.6.% to $81.79, the lowest level since 2012.

Today's decline appears to have been triggered by the International Energy Agency's cutting its demand forecasts for 2014 and 2015 by 200,000 and 300,000 barrels per day, respectively. The IEA cited both supply and demand factors in lowering its estimates, a nod to the deadly combination (for energy prices) of increased global production during a time of decelerating global growth.

Furthermore, the energy watchdog says "most [production] remains profitable at $80 a barrel Brent," suggesting "further oil price drops would likely be needed for supply to take a hit – or for demand growth to get a lift."

This is good news for pretty much everyone other than energy producers and their shareholders. One proxy of energy stocks, the Energy Select SPDR ETF (XLE), is down more than 15% in the past three months, more than triple the S&P 500's (^GSPC) decline in the same timeframe. Weakness in energy stocks like Chevron (CVX) and ConocoPhillips (COP) weighed on the S&P 500, which finished well off the morning highs.

Full article at:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-s-fall-good-for-everyone--except-energy-producers-143808307.html

China to allow individuals to invest abroad

2014-10-10T10:46:00.001-07:00

Imagine if people from china start investing in US stocks!

China to allow individuals to invest abroad

English.news.cn 2014-10-09 23:01:10

BEIJING, Oct. 9 (Xinhua) -- China is considering allowing individuals to directly invest in overseas markets, a central bank official revealed on Thursday.

Currently, only institutions can invest abroad under a scheme called "Qualified Domestic Institutional Investors" (QDII). More than 100 institutions are qualified at present, with a combined quota of 76.8 billion U.S. dollars.

Wang Dan of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) said the central bank is working on a QDII2, to allow Chinese people to trade stocks on foreign bourses and hold other assets. In addition, the PBoC is considering "RMB Qualified Domestic Institutional Investors" (RQDII), which means institutions would be able to use the Chinese yuan to invest abroad rather than convert into local currency.

Both outbound and inbound investment across China's border are still subject to many restrictions as the country's capital account is not open and the yuan not fully convertible, though cross-border use of the yuan is being gradually liberalized.

Editor: Mu Xuequan

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FW: Where to Invest in India

2014-05-05T16:00:00.001-07:00

RESHMA KAPADIA

May 3, 2014

Where to Invest in India

Investors should stay focused on key themes, including infrastructure and India's rising middle-class, in assembling an India portfolio. A quick guide to a sometimes volatile market.

Investors' feelings about Indian stocks tend toward the extremes of a Bollywood blockbuster, swinging between utter despair and unfettered euphoria. Sentiment hasn't quite reached giddiness, but let's call it happy and hopeful.

After pulling $7.8 billion out of Indian equities over the previous 12 months as economic growth slowed, global investors put money back into the market last month, according to the data researchers at EPFR Global. The S&P BSE Sensex, India's major stock index, fell 26% from the beginning of 2013 to an August low, in U.S. dollar terms. It has since rebounded 39%, hitting a record high in April; it's up 9% in 2014, aided by renewed interest from foreign investors. Goldman Sachs, for example, told clients in March that Indian equities merited an Overweight in global portfolios.

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Drawing: Dan Picasso for Barron's

So where will these foreign funds go? If, as seems likely, Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) end up in power, investments in infrastructure to modernize India's inefficient transport system will rise, and businesses generally will be freed from bureaucratic entanglements (see cover story, "India: Open for Business"). Pushed by government spending and guided by Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan, the economy seems poised for a cyclical rebound that will aid India's rising consumer class. "It could be the start of a new bull cycle," says Nikhil Bhatnagar, vice president of South Asia equities at Auerbach Grayson. He thinks economic growth, which fell to 4.7% in 2013 -- about half of 2011's rate -- could rise to 6.5% by 2016, outpacing China's expansion.

Indian stocks tend to trade at higher valuations than those of other emerging markets, because of the depth of the markets and the large number of well-run companies. The Sensex trades at 14.7 times forward earnings, above the emerging-markets' overall average of 10 times but below its historical median of 17.

THERE ARE SEVERAL WAYS to play India's revival. For those who want broad exposure, there are a handful of suggested mutual and exchange-traded funds. The $463 million Matthews India (ticker: MINDX) returned an average of 17% a year over the last five years, topping its Morningstar category. Matthews India searches among companies of all sizes to find those that seem to have sustainable growth prospects. One of its key themes is Indians' rising income over time.

Then there's the WisdomTree India Earnings fund (EPI), which is the broadest and oldest ETF focused on India, and has a bigger helping of energy, consumer staples, and materials companies than its benchmark, the MSCI India index. The iShares India 50 ETF (INDY) tracks an index of 50 blue-chip Indian companies.

Investors also can find opportunities among large cyclical companies. Auerbach's Bhatnagar recommends infrastructure lender IDFC (IDFC.India), which would benefit from increased funding for modernization projects. Its shares trade at eight times forward earnings.

ICICI Bank (IBN), one of the country's largest private-sector banks, is a good proxy for the overall economy, particularly consumer borrowers, who will presumably do well as the economy regathers speed. ICICI trades at 13 times forward earnings.

Auto makers, which have been hurt by high inflation and sluggish demand, could rebound with the economy, says Richard Titherington, who oversees $48 billion in assets as chief investment officer for emerging market equities at JPMorgan Asset Management. Motorcycle maker Bajaj Auto (BJAUT.India), which trades near its long-term average at 14 times 2015 earnings, could gain a new generation of riders. Earnings could rise 11% a year over the next few years, he notes. Another favorite, Mahindra & Mahindra(MM.India), has been able to increase net income despite the stall in the economy. The stock trades at about 13 times 2015 earnings and should average 15% earnings growth over the next couple of years, Titherington says.

Matthews India lead manager Sunil Asnani says some reforms already are under way that could spur growth. For example, India is creating a dedicated freight corridor that tackles the country's dilapidated infrastructure. Shipping and logistics firm Gujarat Pipavav Port(GPPV.India) is one of Matthews India's holdings.

Following the recent run-up in the market, Asnani says he is finding more opportunities in small- and mid-size companies, which are more attractively priced than large-caps, based on their profit and growth prospects. The S&P BSE Small-Cap index, for example is still 46% below its January 2008 high, while the Sensex is setting records.

One possibility, Shriram Transport Finance (SRTR.India), the country's biggest commercial vehicle lender, trades at a discount and has a stronger balance sheet than many of its peers, according to David Nadel, manager of the Royce International Smaller-Companies fund. Nadel, who's been raising his Indian position in the last year, likes that Shriram's loan officers live in the same communities as their borrowers. He expects it to gain from economic growth, as well as increasing credit usage in a country where fewer than 20% of the citizenry have loans.

Goldman and the others realize that Indian stocks historically have rallied before elections, propelled in part by foreign investment. Sentiment could turn back toward despair if poll results take an unexpected turn or the pace of reforms is slower than anticipated. But even that could be short-lived. "History teaches you to be skeptical of the government's ability to deliver on the hype. We think the economy will do better anyway and think they have made the right monetary policy decisions that set the foundation for strong performance," says Titherington.

Any bouts of melodrama could offer opportunity.

INDIA: Open for Business

2014-05-05T15:53:00.001-07:00

JONATHAN R. LAING

May 3, 2014

INDIA: Open for Business

India's likely new prime minister, Narendra Modi, is controversial but also the nation's best shot at an economic turnaround.

In 2008, Narendra Modi sent a text message to Indian mogul Ratan Tata asking him to abandon plans to build his new Nano mini-car at a site in West Bengal, where the project was stymied by red tape and farmer riots. Modi proposed that Tata move the plant construction to Gujarat, the Indian state where Modi was chief minister. Tata agreed, and the first part of his complex was up and operating in Gujarat in less than two years, an extraordinary feat in India.

This and many similar business-friendly initiatives helped Modi turn Gujarat into a fast-growing industrial powerhouse during his 13 years at the helm, following China's model of heavy infrastructure spending on roads, ports, and electric-power generation that, along with generous subsidies, has attracted many modern plants -- and attention. "So many things work properly in Gujarat that it hardly feels like India," noted a newsweekly a few years ago.

The hope is that Modi, 63, can put his pluck and powers of persuasion to work for all of India as its new prime minister. He and his Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party, or BJP, are the odds-on favorites to win the national election, which will wind up in the second week of May. Their victory would end 10 years of increasingly feckless rule by the Gandhi family-led Congress Party, which has failed to realize India's vast economic potential. Modi's main opponent for prime minister is Rahul Gandhi.

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Back in 2006-08, India was mentioned in the same breath as China as one of the globe's most exciting emerging-market growth stories. The gross domestic products of both countries were growing at or near double-digit rates. It was the heyday of the BRIC conceit, that magical lineup of Brazil, Russia, India, and China -- nations destined for economic greatness by dint of their immense resources and increasing embrace of free-market principles.

In India's case, the dream hasn't come true. GDP growth has flagged to less than 5%, while consumer inflation runs above 8% -- in all, a nasty potpourri of stagflation. Last summer, capital flight decimated India's foreign reserves and drove the rupee down 20% in value to a low of 69 rupees to the dollar.

India is unlikely to catch up to China, despite the fact that both in 1990 had similar-size economies. Nowadays, China's GDP is more than four times larger than India's roughly $2 trillion. But, under Modi's energetic, investment-driven leadership, India could start to narrow the gap and transform both its economy and its markets.

THE BJP, OVER THE YEARS, has been more reformist than the Congress Party. And in Modi -- despite controversy he has generated for his alleged involvement in an anti-Muslim pogrom in Gujarat and his ties to big businesses -- the BJP has a standard-bearer with a sterling record in economic development.

Modi's governance style flies in the face of Indian tradition, which has featured backroom business deals in exchange for kickbacks to circumvent the prospect of endless bureaucratic delays. Bidding on government contracts in Gujarat is done on the Internet, not over tea. Modi also has embraced privatization of key sectors like ports, water, and power, which is unusual in most of India's 28 state governments and in Delhi, where a dreamy Congress Party's predilection for socialism still holds sway despite the ideology's many failures in India since independence in 1947.

In recent years, Gujarat has been compared to Guangdong Province, the spearhead of China's economic revival. Since Modi took control, Gujarat has consistently led the nation in GDP growth, accounting for some 16% of India's total industrial output and 22% of its exports, despite having just 5% of the nation's population.

Optimism over India's economic prospects has also been fired by the hard-nosed monetary policies of the head of India's central bank (the Reserve Bank of India, or RBI), Raghuram Rajan. He's an inflation hawk, having raised policy rates three times since he assumed his post in September of last year.

For too long, Indian politicians have allowed inflation and, more importantly, inflationary expectations to wax, rationalizing that they are the natural byproduct of an emerging nation's pursuit of growth. But instead of basing monetary policy on the more forgiving wholesale inflation rate (currently 5.7%), the traditional RBI target, Rajan is paying more attention to consumer inflation, which last month was reported at 8.3%. Already since his appointment, the rupee has strengthened from 68 to about 60 to the dollar, and India's foreign-currency reserves have risen markedly as a result of his policies, giving the nation more of a buffer against a repeat of last summer's capital-flight crisis.

Rajan would be retained by the BJP because of his formidable international stature. He boasts a substantial pedigree, serving as chief economist of the International Monetary Fund from 2003 to 2006. Barron's readers got to know him subsequently when he was a popular author and finance professor at the University of Chicago's Booth School of Business. Rajan foresaw the arrival of the global financial crisis in the middle of the past decade and laid out a pragmatic restructuring strategy to guard against a repeat of the seize-up ("Man With a Plan," July 5, 2010).

Can Modi and Rajan rewrite India's economic story? Perhaps, according to analyst Udith Sikand of Gavekal Dragonomics, who follows India closely from Hong Kong. In a report titled "An Indian Counter-Revolution," Sikand likens Modi to Ronald Reagan as the onetime California governor came to power, inheriting raging inflation, slow growth, and years of budget deficits in 1981. Sikand says Modi even indulges in Reaganesque rhetorical gambits like "government has no business to do business" and "minimum government, maximum governance." Rajan, of course, could be a new Paul Volcker, the Federal Reserve chief whom Reagan retained when he came into office and who was able to finally slay U.S. inflation by brutal monetary tightening. "If Modi and Rajan are successful in packing the one-two punch that Reagan and Volcker did in the early '80s, the implications for growth and long-term investment returns for India are really explosive," says Sikand.

THE BULL THESIS on India is already beginning to play out. Foreign investor money that fled the always bipolar Indian stock market last summer has returned this year with a vengeance, to the tune of $5 billion. The S&P BSE Sensex Index of major Indian stocks has jumped 10% since last September when Modi became the BJP's prime minister candidate. It's now trading near all-time highs.

Of course, it's what happens with the dynamic duo in charge that matters most for the nation's economic growth and, of course, Indian stock prices. Ruchir Sharma, chief of emerging markets at Morgan Stanley Investment Management and author of the well-received emerging-market tome Breakout Nations, thinks India has a real chance to surprise many observers on the upside. "Look, it would take massive restructuring for India to catch up to China, and that's likely beyond India's current capability," says Sharma. "But India has some advantages over China -- India operates off a much lower economic base and has far fewer credit problems -- that give it a 50-50 chance of surprising on the upside."

One bull on India is David Nadel, who manages The Royce Funds' $54 million International Smaller-Companies fund (ticker: RYGSX) and is Royce's international research director. As implied by the name, Nadel fancies smaller and mid-cap stocks in India, impressed by the number of companies in that sector that are both shareholder friendly and notching gaudy returns on capital and equity of 20% or more. They also haven't rebounded to record highs, as have the 30 big-cap stocks in the Sensex Index, with the S&P BSE Small-Cap index still some 46% below its 2008 peak. (For more on Nadel's picks, see"Where to Invest in India").

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Dynamic Duo? Raghuram Rajan, top, governor of India's central bank, has been praised for his strong anti-inflation policies, while prime ministerial front-runner Narendra Modi made his native state a leader in GDP growth. Photos: Dhiraj Singh/Bloomberg News, top; Vivek Prakash/Bloomiberg News

Beyond the chances of fundamental reform coming, Nadel is counting on other secular changes in the years ahead. It's a familiar if somewhat overlooked list. A rapidly growing middle class and the world's third-largest economy based on purchasing power parity are just two of them. "In eight years, India will have as many households with disposable income of $10,000 or more as the U.S. or the euro zone," Nadel tellsBarron's. "And the nation is rapidly integrating into the global economy in such fields as pharmaceuticals (half of the world's FDA-approved pharmaceutical facilities are in India) and high-value-added information technology."

To be sure, some 70% of India's population is still trapped in rural areas and missing out on the productivity revolution that China has experienced by moving population from the farms to urban-area factory floors. But, Nadel contends, a "rural revolution" is taking place, which has seen incomes in India's dusty nondescript villages and towns rise smartly in recent years. This is a result of various government food and fertilizer-subsidy programs and an ambitious government make-work project guaranteeing poor rural residents 100 days of annual guaranteed wages. The result of all this is that rural land values have risen markedly, giving the poor population that owns land a jump in wealth.

The upside is likely to be a surge in consumption per capita in both goods and discretionary services like health care and private education, according to Nadel. He cites a 2012 International Monetary Fund report showing that as of 2011, India had the lowest private consumption rate per capita among the world's 10 most populous countries, trailing even Pakistan, the Philippines, and Indonesia.

"You have to just look at the uptake in mobile-phone adoption in India, where subscriptions have jumped from practically zero at the beginning of the millennium to over 900 million, to see the potential," he points out. According to a local Indian brokerage-house report, the penetration rate for cars, computers, laptops, and air conditioners is less than 5%, and for refrigerators, washing machines, and motorbikes, below 15%. (See chart).

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India's laggard economic performance since independence in 1947 can largely be laid at the feet of the state's founder and leader Jawaharlal Nehru and his descendants, who have dominated politics through the National Congress Party for most of the 67 years since. The charismatic Nehru, a well-meaning socialist, embraced some of the worst alternatives to free-market development, including avid nationalization of industry, incompetent Soviet-style central planning, fortress protectionism, and stifling bureaucracy.

Until a spasm of reform in 1991, a system contemptuously known as the License Raj reigned supreme, under which private businesses had to run a formidable gauntlet to be licensed and then were subject to strict regulatory oversight of the goods they produced, the markets they served, and the wages and personnel decisions they made. The regime resulted in prodigious red tape and corruption, both of which bedevil India to this day.

ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL, Modi promised voters cheaper goods and 100 new "smart cities" loaded with the latest technology, to start to bridge the yawning wealth gap between cities and rural areas. The BJP election manifesto also trumpeted big plans to improve India's ramshackle intercity roadway system and creaky railroads by introducing bullet trains.

But significant obstacles face the Modi-BJP reform plans. It remains to be seen exactly how the elections turn out, and whether the BJP to reach a majority will have to form a coalition with MPs from states that have their own self-serving, parochial agendas.

Likewise, state-government wrangling over land-acquisition issues has accounted for about 55% of the nation's delayed capital projects that would constitute some 5% of India's GDP, according to a recent JPMorgan report by Sajjid Chinoy and Toshi Jain. Most notoriously, it took Korean steel giant Posco (PKX) nine years to gain approval to build a $12.5 billion steel complex in Orissa state, while ArcelorMittal (MT) scrapped similar plans to put up an $8.5 billion steel mill in the same state last year. Clearly, the License Raj lives on in a country starved for investment spending.

Finally, tight money policies and a central-government budget deficit -- estimated for the recently completed fiscal year (ended on March 31) at 4.6% of GDP -- won't give Modi much immediate opportunity to ramp up stimulus spending. Unless the budget deficit that peaked in fiscal 2010 at 6.5% keeps contracting, credit-rating agencies have threatened to drop India's sovereign debt to junk status.

Still, Modi and the BJP do have some wiggle room on reforms. The JPMorgan analysts expect them to revamp India's power sector, chronically subject to grid crashes and electricity interruptions, through deregulation of pricing. The BJP likewise seems open to increasing foreign ownership in industries like defense and insurance.

Government revenue should improve if the long-stalled goods and service tax is implemented, replacing a hodge-podge of value-added central and state government sales taxes. Finally, a Modi administration would rein in the growth of various India-wide subsidies for everything from fertilizer and food for the rural poor to gas- and diesel-fuel prices. The food-subsidy program has been particularly problematic, according to Gavekal's Sikand, because rather than helping the 300 million or so of India's population who clearly need the support, it entitles about 750 million folks to food subsidies at the expense of the government exchequer.

MODI AND RAJAN make a somewhat incongruous pair atop the Indian economy. Rajan, the son of an Indian diplomat, had a worldly and cosmopolitan upbringing. He's emphatically an upper-crust Brahmin, educated at posh schools in India and boasting a Ph.D. in Management from MIT in the U.S.

Modi, on the other hand, is an anomaly for the upper reaches of Indian power structure. He didn't have much schooling and, as a teenager, ran a tea stall for his father near a railroad station in a town in Gujarat. His rise to eminence began in his youth when he joined the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, a Hindu nationalist paramilitary organization that ultimately was absorbed into the BJP. A mesmerizing speaker and adept organizer, Modi quickly rose through the ranks of the RSS and later the BJP.

His stock in trade were anti-Muslim harangues, which made him controversial among the secular, urban elite. Yet, if truth be told, their disdain for Modi might also have arisen from his lower-caste origins.

But controversy over his hypersectarian views continues to dog him. Much of it stems from a bloody anti-Muslim riot that occurred in Gujarat in 2002, in which more than 1,000 people, mostly Muslims, were slaughtered in a three-day rampage in response to the incineration of a train in the city of Godhra that killed 59 Hindu pilgrims and activists. Modi had become Gujarat's chief minister just months before the riot.

Though Indian courts absolved him of complicity, many observers claim the investigations were a whitewash. Among other things, they point to the fact that Modi subsequently appointed a gynecologist as his minister of women and child development who was later convicted of murder in the riots. She received a 28-year jail sentence.

In recent years and during the campaign, Modi has toned down his hypernationalistic rhetoric, preferring to focus on reform and the economic renewal of India that will uplift the lot of Hindus and Muslims alike. Nonetheless, both the U.S. and European Union have refused to grant him diplomatic visas, though in the case of the EU, that boycott has recently been lifted.

Likewise, Modi was accused during the campaign of cozying up to Indian billionaires like Gautam Adani with sweetheart land deals and large subsidies to spur development in Gujarat. But the charges seem to have gained little purchase in light of several megacorruption scandals that have dogged the Congress Party in recent years.

Bull market phase 2- crazy phase- to make tons of money is yet to come IMO

2014-04-25T17:43:00.000-07:00

Study: Most Americans don't trust the stock market

(No bull market is over unless crowd joins in and brings in speculation so IMO for me, it is time to buy at every decline.)

Six years after the financial crisis, most Americans remain unwilling to risk putting money in the stock market, according to a new report.

Research by Bankrate.com found that 73 percent of those surveyed are shying away from investing. This reluctance comes despite the low interest rates being paid on savings and government bonds, and market returns that exceeded 30 percent last year.

"People would rather have pathetically low interest rates in something safe rather than (what they see as) the roller-coaster returns on the stock market," Rick Larrick, a professor of management at Duke University, told Bankrate.com.

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Is the U.S. stock market rigged?

Trepidation around investing in stocks appears to persist across all age groups and income levels.

"Americans may be avoiding the buy-high, sell-low habit seen in previous market cycles, but only because they're not buying at all," Greg McBride, CFA, Bankrate.com's chief financial analyst, said in a statement. "An overly conservative investment stance compounds the problem that so many Americans have of not saving enough for longer-range goals like retirement."

Full article: http://www.cbsnews.com/news/study-most-americans-dont-trust-stock-market/

Business confidence is rising, with a weekly gauge compiled by Moody’s Analytics Inc. at its highest level since the survey began in 2003.

2014-01-23T11:13:00.001-08:00

As executives gather in Davos, Switzerland, this week for the World Economic Forum's annual meeting, business confidence is rising, with a weekly gauge compiled by Moody's Analytics Inc. at its highest level since the survey began in 2003.
Mergers and acquisitions are surging, with $130 billion in takeover offers already announced this year. And enterprises from Microsoft Corp. to Volkswagen AG are readying plans to step up capital spending after companies have squirreled away a record amount of cash to protect against a new financial crisis.
"The animal spirits are coming back," said Mark Zandi, chief economist for New York-based Moody's. "This is going to be a good year" for capital expenditures and hiring.
Behind the projected upturn: increased confidence in the durability of expansion following faster U.S. and global growth late last year, the need to replace aging and out-of-date equipment, and a waning of what Zandi calls "existential fears," including concerns about a breakup of the euro region.

Full story at http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-20/investor-animal-spirits-spread-to-companies-worldwide.html

Japan upgrades its economic outlook for a 3rd straight month

2013-07-24T11:56:00.001-07:00

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Japan's government released its monthly economic report, highlighting once again that the economy continues to show signs of a self-sustaining recovery.

The top headlines included the raised economic assessment for a 3rd consecutive month, further evidence that deflation is abating, a more optimistic view on Capex for the first time in 4 months, raised prospects on factory output as well as business sentiment as confidence strengthens due to a more competitive exports industry on a much cheaper yen.

According to the Japanese Cabinet Office in its monthly economic report on Tuesday: "The economy is steadily picking up and it shows some movement towards a self-sustainable recovery. Recent price developments indicate that deflation is easing."

However, there is much work to be done before a more robust recovery is achieved, the Cabinet Office said, adding "we need further recovery in firms' capital spending and the income situation."

http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?storyid=0ed1576d-060c-40c5-a179-27293ff5695a

U.S. Posts Widest Budget Surplus Since ’08 on Weaker Outlays

2013-07-17T10:46:00.001-07:00

The U.S. government posted the widest monthly budget surplus in more than five years in June, as spending plunged 47 percent and a stronger economy lifted tax receipts, the Treasury Department said.
Receipts exceeded outlays by $116.5 billion last month, the biggest surplus since April 2008, compared with a $59.7 billion deficit in June 2012, the Treasury said today in Washington. The result exceeded the $115 billion median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 21 economists.

Enlarge image

U.S. President Barack Obama

Sean Gallup/Getty Images

U.S. President Barack Obama's administration projects the federal budget deficit will shrink to $759 billion in the year ending Sept. 30, the smallest gap in five years as a stronger economy bolsters revenue.

The Obama administration projects the federal budget deficit will shrink to $759 billion in the year ending Sept. 30, the smallest gap in five years as a stronger economy bolsters revenue. Increased tax collections and rising payments to the Treasury from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as housing improves are taking the pressure off of Congress and the White House to achieve an agreement on dealing with spending, deficits or automatic budget cuts.
"Tax receipts are continuing to improve" and that will "persist throughout the rest of the year because the economy is doing better," said Thomas Simons, a government-debt economist in New York at Jefferies LLC, which predicted a $116 billion surplus for last month.
Today's report showed revenue rose 10.2 percent in June to $286.6 billion from the same month a year earlier. Spending totaled $170.1 billion compared with $319.9 billion a year earlier, it showed.

Full article: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-11/u-s-posts-widest-budget-surplus-since-2008-on-stronger-receipts.html

U.S. Oil Production Rose at Record Pace on Shale, BP Review Says

2013-07-17T10:39:00.001-07:00

U.S. oil production grew at the fastest pace since BP Plc (BP/) started keeping records in 1965 on unconventional sources such as shale and tight oil.
An increase in output of about 1 million barrels a day caused net oil imports to the U.S. to drop by 930,000 barrels a day and imports are now 36 percent below their 2005 peak, London-based BP said in its annual Statistical Review of World Energy today. The expansion of both oil and natural gas production in the U.S. was the fastest in the world last year.
The report highlights the potential scale of unconventional oil extraction, which involves fracturing underground rocks to tap resources that otherwise wouldn't flow to the surface. These technological advances will limit the influence of OPEC as North American techniques are replicated in Russia, China and Brazil, Nansen Saleri, the former head of reservoir management at Saudi Arabian Oil Co., said yesterday.
"The data show there is ample energy available," BP Chief Executive Officer Bob Dudley said in a statement. "Our challenge as an industry is to make the best choices about where to invest."
Growth in global energy consumption slowed to 1.8 percent last year from 2.4 percent in 2011, BP said. China and India accounted for 90 percent of the increase in demand. Emerging economies now account for 56 percent of the world's consumption, compared with 42 percent two decades ago.

Full article at: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-12/u-s-oil-production-rose-at-record-pace-on-shale-bp-review-says.html

Economists say growth in U.S. is likely to continue

2011-02-01T14:57:00.001-08:00

(Reuters) - Factory activity in the U.S. Midwest hit a 22-1/2 year high in January as orders surged and employment prospects brightened, providing a fresh signal that the economy would stay on a solid growth path this year. Another report on Monday showed consumer spending ended 2010 on a firmer footing, a trend that economists expected to continue as the labour market recovery gains traction.
The upbeat data, which showed inflation largely under wraps, suggested the economy started the year with strong momentum. Stocks rose as investors set aside jitters over the
unrest in Egypt and prices for U.S. government debt fell.
"The factory sector news is an important positive omen for the broader economy, because increased production will yield significant income generation, which in turn will fuel stronger household consumption," said Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank Securities in New York.

Full Article at : http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/01/idINIndia-54549020110201

Banks Poised to Pay Dividends After 3-Year Gap

2011-01-14T08:33:00.001-08:00

Financial analysts say the nation's largest banks are ready to begin restoring their dividends in the first half of the year, after a three-year pause to repair their damaged balance sheets. The reversal could put billions of dollars in the pockets of pension funds and retirees who had viewed bank shares as dependable sources of income.
Clues to how big a payout is in store could come as early as Friday, when JPMorgan Chase announces its 2010 financial performance, the first of many earnings reports to come over the next week from the likes of Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo.

Full story at: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/14/business/14dividend.html?_r=3&ref=business

Manufacturing Accelerates in December

2011-01-10T15:22:00.001-08:00

December saw a continued expansion of the U.S. manufacturing sector, according to the Institute for Supply Management.
The ISM said its index of factory activity rose to 57.0% in December from 56.6% in November, the fastest pace of growth in seven months. It is also the 17th consecutive month of sector expansion. (Index readings above 50% show that more firms are growing than contracting.)
Though the number came in below the 57.5% forecast by economists, stocks held onto their triple-digit gains after the announcement.
Many forecasters are predicting a continued uptick in manufacturing this year, coinciding with the ongoing economic recovery.

Full article at http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2011/01/03/manufacturing-accelerates-in-december/

Fed Minutes Cite Growth

2011-01-10T15:18:00.000-08:00

Treasuries were little changed after minutes of the Federal Reserve's last meeting showed policy makers said economic growth was improving.
U.S. five-year notes earlier led an advance as traders speculated underwriters will repurchase Treasuries used to hedge against moves in interest rates after completing corporate debt sales. Fed minutes showed officials felt economic gains were "not sufficient" to scale back their plans to buy $600 billion in U.S. debt to spur employment in the second round in a stimulus strategy called quantitative easing.

Full Article at: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-04/treasury-five-year-notes-advance-as-traders-bet-on-rising-corporate-sales.html

Shale gas in India is 300 times KG D-6

2011-01-10T15:16:00.001-08:00

The future of India's energy sector does not look that bleak after all. Schlumberger, a global leader in oilfield services, has pegged the reserves of gas in shale deposits across the country at 300 times higher than Reliance's Krishna Godavari (D6) basin, by far the largest gas field in the country. According to sources, the New York-listed Schlumberger, which is carrying out a comprehensive shale gas pilot project for state-owned ONGC in the Damodar Valley basin, has made an initial gas-in-place estimate of 300-2,100 trillion cubic feet (tcf) in Indian shale gas basins. In comparison, Reliance's KG D6 field has proven reserves of just 7-8 tcf.
"Such resources have the potential to move the Indian gas market from gas-constrained to gas-balanced, if not turn the country into a gas-surplus one," an official with Schlumberger told FE.

Full Article at:
http://www.financialexpress.com/news/shale-gas-in-india-is-300-times-kg-d6/733963/

Jobs growing in the USA

2011-01-10T15:09:00.000-08:00

U.S. posts a drop in unemployment claims for December
The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits for the first time declined last month to its lowest rate since July 2008. Economists said data confirm a brightening prospect for the U.S. labor market, despite a small increase in initial jobless claims last week. TheFiscalTimes.com/The Associated Press (06 Jan.) , The Christian Science Monitor/Paper Economy blog (06 Jan.)

Economists: More jobless benefits could head off a double-dip recession

2010-07-26T16:52:00.001-07:00

Economists: More jobless benefits could head off a double-dip recession
Restoring benefits for more than 5 million long-term unemployed workers would not put enough money into the U.S. economy to step up the pace of growth, but it could prevent the nation from sliding back into recession, economists said. Extra unemployment benefits Congress provided during the recession expired early last month, but Senate Democrats defeated a Republican filibuster Tuesday aimed at blocking a further extension. A final decision from the Senate is expected Wednesday. Google/The Associated Press (20 Jul.) , The Washington Post

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Japan's export growth outstrips economists' average forecast

2010-07-26T16:48:00.001-07:00

Japan's export growth outstrips economists' average forecast
Japan's exports posted their seventh consecutive month of increase in June, with shipments increasing 27.7% compared with the same month last year, the Finance Ministry said. The expansion topped a 23.5% growth forecast by economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
Read full article on the Bloomberg

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Bullish Sentiment on the Rise

2010-04-27T06:49:00.001-07:00

Bullish Sentiment on the Rise: Is It Time to Get Worried ... or Get on Board?

For FULL Article: Apr 27, 2010 08:15am EDT by Aaron Task in Investing

Sentiment is always tricky to measure - and something of a Rorschach test - but with the Dow up 71% from its March 2008 lows, the inevitable has started to happen: Bullish sentiment is rising.Anecdotally, at least, the migration from investor "disbelief" in the rally to "acceptance" (if not "embrace") can be seen in a number of recent indicators, including:

-- Newsweek's "America's Back" headline.
-- An "S&P 3000 by 2020" prediction on Tech Ticker.
-- A WSJ story about rising bullishness among technicians, featuring a prediction from Lowry's Paul Desmond's that "we could easily be getting into a speculative advance here, a real momentum move."
-- A modicum of towel-tossing by noted bears such as Jeremy Grantham of GMO. In January, Grantham said the S&P was fairly valued at 850. In his most recent quarterly letter, the famed investor writes "the line of least resistance is a market move in the next 18 months or so back to the old highs, say, 1500 to 1600 on the S&P, accompanied by an equivalent gain in most risk measures, followed once again by a very dangerous break."
-- A Bloomberg story about stocks being the cheapest since 1990, excluding the 2009 market trough.
-- Rising optimism among private sector trade groups surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics, as detailed here.

Whether or not this means we're on the precipice of the "melt up" scenario Schwab's Liz Ann Sonders predicted here in early April remains, of course, to be seen.
But what's noteworthy about sentiment is the dichotomy to how the pros view the market vs. the retail investor.
As of April 21, the Investors Intelligence weekly survey of newsletter writers showed bullish sentiment rising to 53.3% while bears fell from 18.9% to 17.4%. Anything less than 20% bears is considered extreme.
Meanwhile, bullish sentiment in the American Association of Individual Investors' survey was 38.1% on April 21, down from 48.5% on April 15 and below the long-term average of 38.9%. Bearish sentiment rose to 34.3% vs. 29.7% the prior week and is above the long-term average of 30.0%, AAII reports.
A recent Schwab survey of its active traders and mutual fund inflow data in recent months show a similar disbelief about U.S. equities among individual investors -- as does the generally negative tone in our comments section.
A rise in bullish sentiment is generally considered a negative contrary indicator, as Henry and I discuss in the accompanying clip. But it's also true that bull markets typically don't peak until the skeptics fully capitulate and the general public gets extremely bullish on stocks, and we're a long way from there.

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FW: Retail sales show strongest gain since before the recession

2010-03-05T15:52:00.001-08:00

Sales soar 4% from a year earlier as every sector except drugstores performs better than predicted, though weak 2009 figures skew comparisons.

Shoppers enter a Gap store in Pasadena. The chain's parent company, Gap Inc., reported a 3% sales increase in February. (Francine Orr, xx / March 3, 2010)

Read full story on LA Times website:

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Factory output is expanding in most major economies

2010-02-09T16:30:00.001-08:00

Factory output is expanding in most major economies
Manufacturing is showing signs of a comeback. The sector is expanding in the U.S., according to the Institute for Supply Management. In Europe, Greece and Spain are reporting continued contraction, though at a slower rate than a year ago. Meanwhile, factory output is expanding in Britain, France and Germany. Among the big developing economies, Brazil, China and India are experiencing solid manufacturing growth, according to research firm Markit. The Economist

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For Bulls- Only the News that Confirm Bullish Outlook

SOS Limitd (AKA Chinese Scam ;). Author presents a case for $SOS to trade at about $120 per ADS and be a $10B company

If there is a market pullback, it's 'absolutely an unqualified buying opportunity': Heritage Capital's Paul Schatz

If there is a market pullback, it's 'absolutely an unqualified buying opportunity': Heritage Capital's Paul Schatz

Japan's big public funds adopt GPIF's equity-heavy asset allocation targets

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FW: Where to Invest in India

Where to Invest in India

Investors should stay focused on key themes, including infrastructure and India's rising middle-class, in assembling an India portfolio. A quick guide to a sometimes volatile market.

INDIA: Open for Business

INDIA: Open for Business

India's likely new prime minister, Narendra Modi, is controversial but also the nation's best shot at an economic turnaround.

Bull market phase 2- crazy phase- to make tons of money is yet to come IMO

Study: Most Americans don't trust the stock market

Is the U.S. stock market rigged?

Business confidence is rising, with a weekly gauge compiled by Moody’s Analytics Inc. at its highest level since the survey began in 2003.

Japan upgrades its economic outlook for a 3rd straight month

U.S. Posts Widest Budget Surplus Since ’08 on Weaker Outlays

U.S. President Barack Obama

U.S. Oil Production Rose at Record Pace on Shale, BP Review Says

Economists say growth in U.S. is likely to continue

Banks Poised to Pay Dividends After 3-Year Gap

Manufacturing Accelerates in December

Fed Minutes Cite Growth

Shale gas in India is 300 times KG D-6

Jobs growing in the USA

Economists: More jobless benefits could head off a double-dip recession

Japan's export growth outstrips economists' average forecast

Bullish Sentiment on the Rise

Bullish Sentiment on the Rise: Is It Time to Get Worried ... or Get on Board?

FW: Retail sales show strongest gain since before the recession

Sales soar 4% from a year earlier as every sector except drugstores performs better than predicted, though weak 2009 figures skew comparisons.

Factory output is expanding in most major economies

Imagine if people from china start investing in US stocks!

China to allow individuals to invest abroad