FOREX4ALL.TK

European long-term govt bonds fall further after Fed rate cut

2007-09-19T19:40:00.000Z

LONDON (Thomson Financial) - European longer-dated government bonds continued to fall while shorter-dated ones more buoyant after the Federal Reserve cut rates by an aggressive 50 basis points last night.
The size of the rate cut boosted short-term bonds, while longer-term contracts fell in response to an increase in risk appetite and a rise in stock markets and inflation expectations.
"The steepening of the (yield) curve indicates three things: first, inflation expectations have risen due to the aggressive Fed action," said an analyst at BNP Paribas.
Secondly, the 50-point rate cut suggests, especially to foreign investors, to refrain from buying long-term US debt assets, and "third, lower US interest rates will increase the pace of de-pegging from the US dollar, reducing long-term demand for the dollar and for US assets," said the analyst.
The Fed is seen to have cut interest rates both in order to normalise the functioning of money markets as well as to pre-empt a more severe downturn in economic growth.
US CPI, which the Fed had access to when it cut rates, today showed a 0.1 pct monthly fall in August, with core prices up 0.2 pct. Although the data shows some moderation in price pressures, the Fed warned about lingering inflation risks, casting some doubt over how much it would be able to cut rates at a time when oil prices are near record levels.
"The key question is what the potential knock-on (from the Fed rate cut) may be for European interest rate expectations," said David Brown, chief European economist at Bear Stearns.
"We believe High Noon for European rate cuts may be coming a lot sooner than generally expected, with reasonable odds that rate cuts could still happen before the end of the year," said Brown.
That is a minority view, however, with most analysts expecting the European Central Bank to stay on hold until the market turmoil dies down, with a good chance of hiking one more time.
In the UK, gilts tracked US Treasuries, causing a steepening in the yield curve, particularly after the Bank of England announced today that it would provide 3-month liquidity to the financial system, a sharp U-turn from its previous position, when just last week it cautioned against bailing out poor lending habits.
Michael Saunders, economist at Citigroup, said this move suggests the BoE acknowledges that high money market rates pose a severe risk to growth prospects.
"Presumably, the BoE now believes that the costs of providing longer-term liquidity (moral hazard) are outweighed by the costs of not doing so (adverse economic effect)," said Saunders.
The BoE's governor Mervyn King faces a grilling by MPs tomorrow, and markets will be sensitive to any comments that may provide direction to future interest rate policy.
Meanwhile, the minutes to the BoE's last policy meeting showed the decision to leave rates unchanged was unanimous. There had been no discussion of any move in rates, up or down, and upside inflation risks were seen to have receded.

Investors hunt for effects of rate cut

2007-09-19T19:39:00.000Z

NEW YORK (AP) - A big rate cut by the Federal Reserve and the stock market's huge rally in response to that move has many on Wall Street wondering: Now what?
The Fed's decision Tuesday to slash its benchmark federal funds rate by a larger-than-expected half percentage point sent stocks soaring and lifted the Dow Jones industrials nearly 336 points. It also raised questions about the Fed's next step and how markets might fare in the coming months.
"I think it's probably going to help stabilize things. It seems to me that the Fed had enough room on the inflation front to really get out ahead on this," said Bruce McCain, head of strategy for Key Private Bank's investment management unit.
Before the Fed's decision and even with recent moves to cut the rate it charges to loan directly to banks -- known as the discount rate -- Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke left some investors asking whether the central bank would cut rates at all in the face of concerns about inflation.
With that question answered, investors rushed in and put stocks a good deal above their recent lows in August. The Dow's jump -- its biggest one-day point gain in almost five years -- left the blue chip index only about 1.9 percent below its record close of 14,000.41 reached in mid-July.
Still, some on Wall Street will likely question whether the Fed's rate cut signals a deeper unease at the bank about the effect of tightness in the credit markets and widespread weakness in the housing sector. And investors will be left trying to determine whether a portion of Tuesday's rally owed to short covering. Investors who sell shares short bet the stock price will fall, and when stocks move higher, so-called short sellers are forced to move in and buy to cover their losses. That influx of buyers can exacerbate market climbs.
"The market's initial response is 'Thank you, Ben,'" said Jerry Webman, chief economist at Oppenheimer Funds Inc. "But we also know that when people stop and look at this, people might say, 'Could this house of cards be shaky, more than even we thought it was?'"
Still, there was clearly relief that that the Fed seemed to riding in to rescue the credit markets and shore up investor sentiment. Many investors had been pulling for a rate cut to help reduce the chance of the economy sliding into recession.
"They are concerned about the deteriorating real estate market," McCain said of the Fed. "That is going to continue to weigh on the consumer. I think they felt by being pre-emptive that they could give a lift to confidence."
In the economic assessment accompanying its decision, the Fed said it remains concerned about the credit market and its effect on housing, It noted in its statement, "The tightening of credit conditions has the potential to intensify the housing (market) correction and to restrain economic growth more generally."
With those concerns in mind, the Fed cut the benchmark fed funds rate to 4.75 percent -- the first reduction in four years. The central bank had kept rates unchanged for more than a year. The Fed also again cut the less-visible discount rate. Fed policymakers lowered the discount rate by half a point in mid-August in their bid to keep cash flowing into the U.S. banking system and dispel perceptions that turning to the central bank for a loan in such times was a sign of a bank's precarious position.
But while investors will likely celebrate overall cheaper access to liquidity and the notion that dealmaking in an uncertain economy could become less onerous, some of the troubles that have dogged investors can't be waved away by the Fed's decision.
Consumers will likely be helped, for example, by seeing lower interest rates on debt such as credit cards, but weakness in the housing sector will likely remain. While the boost to investor confidence is often immediate, Fed interest rate moves often take six months or more to fully work themselves into the economy.
"I think a lot of people are assuming that with a rate cut we go back to the environment you would have coming out of a recession. This was an economy that wasn't weak but it clearly was a mature economy. You don't have the pent-up demand that you have after a recession."
And as the Fed didn't offer any overt signals about whether it expected to make further cuts, investors will likely continue to pay close attention to economic data on inflation, one of the Fed's main priorities.
"In part they're saying the housing problems are going to take the pressure off inflation for the next few months," McCain said.

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2007-09-17T23:40:00.000Z

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2007-09-06T15:57:00.000Z

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Forex History

2007-08-18T02:12:00.000Z

FOREX (FOReign EXchange market) is an international foreign exchange market, where money is sold and bought freely. In its present condition FOREX was launched in the 1970s, when free exchange rates were introduced, and only the participants of the market determine the price of one currency against the other proceeding from supply and demand.
As far as the freedom from any external control and free competition are concerned, FOREX is a perfect market. It is also the biggest liquid financial market. According to various assessments, money masses in the market constitute from 1 to 1.5 trillion US dollars a day. (It is impossible to determine an absolutely exact number because trading is not centralized on an exchange.) Transactions are conducted all over the world via telecommunications 24 hours a day from 00:00 GMT on Monday to 10:00 pm GMT on Friday. Practically in every time zone (that is, in Frankfurt-on-Main, London, New York, Tokyo, Hong Kong, etc.) there are dealers who will quote currencies.

FOREX is a more objective market, because if some of its participants would like to change prices, for some manipulative purpose, they would have to operate with tens of billions dollars. That is why any influence by a single participants in the market is practically out of the question. The superior liquidity allows the traders to open and/or close positions within a few seconds. The time of keeping a position is arbitrary and has no limits: from several seconds to many years. It depends only on your trading strategies. Although the daily fluctuations of currencies are rather insignificant, you may use the credit lines, that are accessible even to currency speculators with small capitals ($ 1,000 - 5,000), where the profit may be impressive. (You can learn more about it in the section: The main principles of trading.)
The idea of marginal trading stems from the fact that in FOREX speculative interests can be satisfied without a real money supply. This decreases overhead expenses for transferring money and gives an opportunity to open positions with a small account in US dollars, buying and selling a lot of other currencies. That is, on can conduct transactions very quickly, getting a big profit, when the exchange rates go up or down. Many speculative transactions in the international financial markets are made on the principles of marginal trading.
Margin trading is trading with a borrowed capital. Marginal trading in an exchange market uses lots. 1 lot equals approximately $100,000, but to open it it is necessary to have only from 0.5% to 4% of the sum.
For example, you have analyzed the situation in the market and come to the conclusion that the pound will go up against the dollar. You open 1 lot for buying the pound (GBP) with the margin 1% (1:1000 leverage) at the price of 1.49889 and wait for the exchange rate to go up. Some time later your expectations become true. You close the position at 1.5050 and earn 61 pips (about $ 405).

Everyday fluctuations of currencies constitute about 100 to 150 pips, giving FX traders an opportunity to make money on these changes.
In FOREX, it's not obligatory to buy some currency first in order to sell it later. It's possible to open positions for buying and selling any currency without actually having it. Usually Internet-brokers establish the minimum deposit such as $ 2000, for working in the FOREX market, and grant a leverage of 1:100. That is, opening the position at $100,000, a trader invests $1,000 and receives $99.000 as a credit. The major currencies traded in FOREX, are Euro (EUR), Japanese yen (JPY), British Pound (GBP), and Swiss Franc (CHF). All of them are traded against the US dollar (USD).
In order to assess the situation in the market a trader has to be able to use fundamental and/or technical analysis, as well as to make decisions in the constantly changing current of information about political and economic character. Most small and medium players in financial markets use technical analysis. Technical analysis presupposes that all the information about the market and its further fluctuations is contained in the price chain. Any factor, that has some influence on the price, be it economic, political or psychological, has already been considered by the market and included in the price. The initial data for a technical analysis are prices: the highest and the lowest prices, the price of opening and closing within a certain period of time, and the volume of transactions.
A technical analysis is founded on three suppositions:
That is, technical analysis is a statistical and mathematical analysis of previous quotes and a prognosis of coming prices.

A number of technical indicators have been installed into the PRO-CHARTS trading system. Analyzing the indicators one can come to the conclusion about further movements of the quoted currencies. For a more detailed description of the indicators, analyzing price charts and volumes of trading,
Fundamental analysis is an analysis of current situations in the country of the currency, such as its economy, political events, and rumors. The country's economy depends on the rate of inflation and unemployment, on the interest rate of its Central Bank, and on tax policy. Political stability also influences the exchange rate. Policy of the Central Bank has a special role, as concentrated interventions or refusal from them greatly influence the exchange rate.
At the same time one should not consider fundamental analysis just as an analysis of the economic situation in the country itself. A far bigger role in the FOREX market belongs to the expectations of the market participants and their assessment of these expectations. Various prognoses and bulletins, issued by the participants, have a strong influence on the expectations. Very often an effect of the so-called self-filfilling prophecy occurs when market players raise or lower the exchange rates according to the prognosis. But a deep and thorough fundamental analysis is available only for big banks with a staff of professional analysts and constant access to a wide field of information.
In spite of these different approaches, both forms of analyses complement one another. Traders who act on the basis of a fundamental analysis, have to consider some technical characteristics of the market (the main rates of support, such as resistance and resale), and supporters of the technical approach to the market must track the main news (interest rates, important political events).
The main merits of the FOREX market are:
The biggest number of participants and the largest volumes of transactions;
Superior liquidity and speed of the market: transactions are conducted within a few seconds according to online quotes;
The market works 24 hours a day, every working days;
A trader can open a position for any period of time he wants;
No fees, except for the difference between buying and selling prices;
An opportunity to get a bigger profit that the invested sum;
Qualified work in the FOREX market can become your main professional activity;
You can make deals any time you like.