The calendar is crowded today with major releases: Australian jobs, a rate decision in Switzerland and important figures in the US are the highlights today. Let’s see what’s up.

As seen in the Non-Farm Payrolls and also beforehand, the commodity currencies continue to show strength while the Euro and the Pound are weak. This will probably continue, although the Euro seems to be stabilizing.

After making a move upwards, Australia provides a strong start for the day. MI Inflation Expectations provide a warm up hinting about inflation. The main course is the employment data: Australia’s Employment Change is expected to show a gain of 15.3K jobs and the Unemployment Rate is expected to remain stable at 5.3%.

Note that these figures were better than expected for four straight months. The expectations were modest, like this time, and the result was better. Will it happen again? For the Aussie’s technical levels, check out the AUD/USD forecast.

In Europe, France begins the day with the release of the final Non-Farm Payrolls for Q4. The drop of 0.4% is expected to be confirmed. Later in Europe, the ECB Monthly Bulletin will provide an indicator about the whole region.

The Euro’s technical situation is stabilizing. Will it rise? Check out more on the Euro in the EUR/USD forecast, and in Casey Stubbs’ latest analysis.

British Consumer Inflation Expectations are expected to rise, as the inflation rises in Britain. The Pound is sliding down once again, after another credit warning from Fitch.

The Pound’s greater limits remain 1.4770 and 1.5350. It sticks to this range at the moment. Read more in the GBP/USD forecast.

In Switzerland, the central bank will announce a new interest rate. The SNB will probably leave the Libor Rate unchanged at 0.25%. The wording of the SNB Monetary Policy Assessment will shake the Swissy for sure. What’s never sure is the actions of the bank. At the same time last year, they intervened immediately after the rate decision. While these interventions are short-lived, they can throw traders out of their positions.

Moving to North America, Canada’s Trade Balance is expected to shift from a deficit to a surplus of 0.4 billion. The American Trade Balance will be released at the same time and will probably show the same deficit as last month – 40.2 billion.

At the same time, 13:30 GMT, American Unemployment Claims are released. They’re expected to drop from 469K to 453K, still within the same range as in recent weeks. This is the first jobless claims release after the NFP, and it will probably move the markets.

Canadian events aren’t over: the NHPI (New Housing Price Index) is predicted to rise by 0.5%, similar to the previous month. Later in Canada, BOC governor Mark Carney will make a public appearance and can also move the loonie.

USD/CAD is struggling to break below 1.02. This 2009 low is a tough and critical spot. For more on the Canadian dollar, read the USD/CAD forecast.

In New Zealand, the day after the rate decision brings another significant release: retail sales. After remaining unchanged last month, they’re expected to rise by 0.3% this time.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

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EUR/USD is trading in a range for over a month. While the long term trend is bearish, some bullish hints can be found within this range.

Since February 4th, EUR/USD plunged into a range between 1.3423 to 1.3850. At the beginning the trend in the hourly charts was negative. On February 19th, the bottom line of 1.3423 was approached for the first time. And later, the peak was lower than previous peaks – 1.3690 on February 23rd.

EUR/USD hourly trends. Click to enlarge

This narrow range of 1.3423 to 1.3690 continued until March 4th. And then, EUR/USD approached 1.3750 and fell only to 1.3530, far enough from the bottom.

In the chart above, you can see the trend changing from bearish to bullish. But this is a narrow time frame. Since the peak of 1.5144 in December, the long term trend of EUR/USD is down.

Fundamentals support the long term downtrend: Europe’s recovery is slower than expected, the unemployment rate is high and the debt problems from all over the continent continue to weigh on the Euro.

The levels to watch continue to be 1.3423 and 1.3850. A break of these levels will indicate the long term direction. In the meantime, range trading, which characterizes this pair, will be further seen.

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After two light days, today’s calendar is quite busy: a rate decision in New Zealand and the Federal Budget Balance are the highlights. Let’s see what’s awaiting us toady.

We’ve already see one hesitant break of the Australian dollar and we’ve seen the USD/CAD edge down, still not breaking 1.02. In these currencies, the action will probably be seen after they post employment data. OK, let’s start the review:

Australia’s Home Loans are predicted to rise by 2.1% after a sharp drop of 5.5%. This should help the Aussie make progress. For more on this strong currency, read the AUD/USD forecast.

German Final CPI will start a bunch of European events. It’s predicted to confirm the 0.2% rise that was initially reported. French Industrial Production is expected to rise by 0.3%, after dipping by 0.1% last month. The German figure disappointed earlier in this week.

Two speeches are due in Europe: Bundesbank president Axel Weber, possibly the next president of the ECB, will speak in Dublin and will probably move the Euro. The current ECB president, Jean-Claude Trichet, will later talk in the inauguration ceremony of “The Language of Money” exhibition, in Frankfurt and will also have his share of moving the currency.

For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast and Casey Stubbs’ latest analysis.

In Britain, Manufacturing Production is expected to rise by 0.3%, much less than last month’s 0.9% rise. This will probably cause high volatility. Later in Britain, the NIESR GDP estimate will be released. It showed a rise of 0.4% in the three months ending in January. Will it continue to be optimistic?

More on the Pound’s technical levels can be found in the GBP/USD forecast.

In the US, the Federal Budget Balance is expected to show a huge deficit: 204 billion. This is about 5 times last month’s figure. It will probably weigh on the dollar.

New Zealand’s interest rate will probably remain at 2.5%. Alan Bollard, head of the RBNZ, isn’t expected to raise the interest rate, at least not this time. Will he do it sooner than others? That’s the big question that awaits kiwi traders. We’ll probably get information in the RBNZ Rate Statement and press conference.

Kathy Lien sees a short opportunity in AUD/NZD and generally sees a strong NZD/USD.

Japanese Final GDP closes the day. A downside revision from 1.1% to 1% is predicted. The Japanese yen lost some ground last week.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

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In the weekly video outlook on Forex TV, I spoke with Julie Sinah about range trading currencies, the economic indicators and expected breakouts. Enjoy!

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The dollar gained back some of the losses amid a light calendar. Also today, there aren’t any huge events, but there are some indicators that will move currencies. Let’s see what’s up for today.

British BRC Retail Sales Monitor began the day with a rise of 2.2%. This can hint about the official retail sales figure. The RICS House Price Balance was quite disappointing with a drop to 17%, half the expectations. More regions are reporting a drop in house prices.

Later in Britain, Trade Balance is expected to show a smaller deficit than beforehand, only 6.9 billion. For more on the Pound, read the GBP/USD forecast.

Australia’s ANZ Job Advertisements were excellent, rising by 19.1%. This is a volatile release (it fell by 8.1% last month), but the outcome gives a lot of hope for the official employment figures later in the week.

Also in Australia, the NAB Business Confidence rose from 15 to 19 points, also good for the Aussie. On the other side of the day, Westpac Consumer Sentiment will show how Australian consumers feel about the economy. For more on the Australian dollar, read the AUD/USD forecast.

In Japan, Leading Indicators jumped to 97.1%, exceeding expectations. Later in Japan, Core Machinery Orders are predicted to drop by 3.8% after a leap of 20.1% last time.

In Europe, the only indicator is French Trade Balance. The Euro/Dollar continues the range trading. For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast and Casey Stubbs’ latest analysis.

Also in the US, the only figure is IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism which is expected to rise. We have more interesting events tomorrow. Check out the forex weekly outlook for more.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

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The market took its time to digest last week’s good Australian news, but now it finally made the break above the stubborn resistance line. Update on this strong currency.

AUD/USD finally broke above the stubborn resistance line of 0.9090 for the first time after 6 weeks. The pair currently trades at 0.9130, settling above the line.

After dropping below 0.9090 on January 21st, there were immediate attempts to break above this line, but they failed. A similar attempt was made just on Friday, after the American NFP, but the pair stopped exactly at this line.

Traders returned to the markets with risk appetite, selling the dollar. This is what made the final push above 0.9090. The next line of resistance is at 0.9170. It served as a support line at the beginning of the year, before the Aussie fell to the lower range that it just escaped.

Further above, 0.9327 continues to be the strongest resistance line – being tested many times between October and January, and only breached once for reaching the 2009 high of 0.94.

Strong Australian fundamentals

The Aussie enjoyed two great releases last week. The first was the rate decision – Glenn Stevens lifted the Australian interest rate for the fourth time to 4%. Although this was generally expected, it still widens the big gap between Australia and the rest of the world.

The second event was also predicted – the Australian economy grew by 0.9% in Q4. Also here, this is a great growth rate, and it shows the strength of the economy. The Aussie reacted cautiously to these events, but now it finally made the break.

Employment ahead

This week’s major release comes from the job market – Australia is expected to see a small gain in jobs and a stable unemployment rate – 5.3%. In the past four months, the employment figures beat economists’ expectations again and again.

Two months ago, great figures weren’t enough to fight the dollar and the strong resistance line of 0.9327. Will this week mark a breakout of the Aussie? We’ll see…

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Off-topic post. My associates and I are proud to present TheWadi – a blog and company index for Israeli technology companies and start-ups. We have one major goal: providing maximal and constant exposure to Israeli technology worldwide.

After a few months of research, design, programming and last minute touches, we’ve launching it today. TheWadi’s content consists of:

• Launches of web start ups.
• New features and products by web companies.
• Reviews of new services.
• Major economic news: co-operations, buyouts, mergers, etc.
• Interviews with the people behind the ventures.
• And in-depth articles.

In addition to providing news, we have an extensive index of Israeli web companies that includes details about their activities, latest news, contact details and in the future – option to order detailed reports by email.

Here’s more about the site and about the team.

The week starts without major releases. German industrial production and Swiss retail sales will stand out. Here’s the daily outlook.

Note that the weak, yet expected Non-Farm Payrolls will still echo in the markets. The dollar enjoyed some strength against the majors last week but lost ground to the commodity currencies. OK, let’s see the events:

Japan starts the day with a few figures: Current Account is expected to rise to a surplus of 1.25 trillion yens. The Economy Watchers Sentiment is predicted to edge up from 38.8 to 40.2 points.

In Switzerland, the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.1%. This figure rarely surprises. The more important release is Retail Sales – after a leap of 4.7%, a strong rise of 2.4% is expected this time.

In Europe, the Sentix Investor Confidence is expected to tick up from -8.2 to -7.6, still in the negative zone, showing pessimism. German Industrial Production is expected to rise by 1.1% after sliding by 2.6% last month. This event usually rocks the Euro.

For more on the Euro’s week, read the EUR/USD forecast. I also recommend catching up with Casey Stubbs’ analyses.

In Britain, MPC member Kate Barker will speak in a conference. Barker is about to step down from position soon, so she might feel more free to speak.

The Pound has seen better days than these. For the events and a technical analysis, check out GBP/USD forecast.

For those of you trading the loonie, an important indicator is due today: Housing Starts are expected to remain unchanged at 186K.

Will USD/CAD continue towards parity? There are technical barriers on the way. Check out the USD/CAD forecast for more.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

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After the NFP, the upcoming week is somewhat less busy. Nevertheless, rate decision in Switzerland and New Zealand, job figures from Australia and Canada and two major American releases on Friday among other events, will provide lots of action. Here’s the weekly outlook.

On Monday and Tuesday, there are many events on the calendar, but not too many important ones. The effect of the Non-Farm Payrolls will still strongly felt at the beginning of the week, until fresh important indicators are released. Let’s start:

1. Swiss Retail Sales: Published on Monday at 8:15 GMT. Switzerland enjoys a strong and stable economy with confident consumers. Last month, sales volume jumped by 4.7%, a very strong pace. This time, a rise of 1.6% is predicted. This will have a strong impact on the Swissy as well as a collateral effect as the beginning of the week doesn’t contain too many figures.
2. British NIESR GDP Estimate: Published on Wednesday at 15:00 GMT. NIESR is usually more accurate than other economists in understanding the economy. The upcoming release will show the growth rate for the three months that ended in February, as Britain hardly got out of recession at the end of 2009. This tends to have a long term impact on the Pound.
3. American Federal Budget Balance: Published on Wednesday at 19:00 GMT. It’s no secret that the US government owes a lot of money. The size of the deficit fell to more “normal” levels last month – only 40 billion. But this time, it’s predicted to surge back to 200 billion, weighing on the dollar.
4. New Zealand rate decision: Published on Wednesday at 20:00 GMT. New Zealand has the second highest interest rate among the major currencies, 2.5%, but it didn’t follow its neighbor Australia and didn’t raise the rates. Also now, Alan Bollard is expected to leave the Official Cash Rate unchanged but may hint about future hikes in the RBNZ Press Conference. This decision has an impact beyond New Zealand and impacts also the Aussie.
5. Japanese Final GDP: Published on Wednesday at 23:50 GMT. According to the initial release, the land of the rising sun experienced a stronger growth than expected – 1.1% in Q4. This is expected to be revised to the downside – 1.0%, shaking the Japanese Yen against the dollar and all the Yen crosses
6. Australian employment data: Published on Thursday at 00:30 GMT. In the past four months, Australian employment figures were fantastic, beating expectations each time. The predictions remain cautious: Employment Change is expected to rise by a modest number – 15,300 and the Unemployment Rate is expected to remain unchanged at 5.3%, after dropping from 5.5% last time.
7. American and Canadian Trade Balance: Published on Thursday at 13:30 GMT. This double-feature release in Canada and the US always triggers action in USD/CAD. The American deficit is expected to remain high at around 40 billion, while Canada is expected to turn from a deficit of 0.2 to a surplus of 0.4 billion.
8. American Unemployment Claims: Published on Thursday at 13:30 GMT. Together with trade balance, the first jobless claims report after the Non-Farm Payrolls will probably show an improvement – a drop from 469K to 452K, pushing the dollar higher.
9. Swiss rate decision: Published on Thursday at 14:00 GMT. The Swiss National Bank makes rate decisions on the Libor rate only once a quarter. The rate is expected to remain unchanged at 0.25%. At the same time last year, the central bank accompanied the rate decision with a massive intervention. They now intervene all the time, not only on rate decisions.
10. Canadian employment data: Published on Friday at 12:00 GMT. Also Canada experienced an improving job market. Last month, the unemployment rate surprised by falling to 8.3%. This is expected to remain unchanged. The superb employment change figure showed a rise of 43,200 jobs last time. It’s expected to be followed by a gain of 17,500 jobs this time. This will rock USD/CAD and also impact the greenback elsewhere.
11. American Retail Sales: Published on Friday at 13:30 GMT. Sales were stronger than expected in January, but the freezing month of February probably weighed on this growth in the volume of sales. A drop of 0.1% is predicted in retail sales and a drop of 0.1% in core retail sales.
12. American Consumer Sentiment: Published on Friday at 15:00 GMT. According to the University of Michigan, consumer confidence has been stable in the past three months, remaining almost unchanged at a score of 73.6. A small rise to 74.3 points is expected this time. The timing of the release, close to the close of the markets, promises lots of action around this release.

That’s it for the major events this week.

Further reading:

• For the Euro, read the EUR USD Forecast.
• For GBP/USD, look into the British Pound forecast.
• For the Australian dollar, read the AUD/USD forecast.
• For USD/CAD, check out the Canadian dollar forecast.

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free.

EUR/USD is getting used to a range also after the NFP. The upcoming week contains many events that will move the Euro. Here’s the outlook for these events and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

EUR/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

A lot of progress has been made in resolving the Greek crisis, but it will probably be in the headlines this week as well and might continue to overshadow the regular indicators. Let’s start seeing them. The technical analysis will follow:

1. Sentix Investor Confidence: Published on Monday at 9:30 GMT. This wide survey of 2,800 investors and analysts has shown a deterioration of economic conditions in recent months. The index, currently at -8.2, is expected to edge up to -7.6, still in the negative zone. Most European business surveys aren’t too good.
2. German Industrial Production: Published on Monday at 11:00 GMT. Europe’s largest economy saw a surprising drop of 2.6% in its industrial output last month. This followed previous disappointments. A renewed rise is expected this time – 1.1%.
3. German Final CPI: Published on Wednesday at 7:00 GMT. A month of accelerated price hikes was erased one month later, and Germany is back to stability now – a rise of 0.2% according to the initial release. This will probably be confirmed now.
4. French Industrial Production: Published on Wednesday at 7:45 GMT. Europe’s second largest industry is more stable than Germany, but it also saw a small dip of 0.1% last month. It’s expected to rise by 0.3% this time.
5. Jean-Claude Trichet talks: Will speak on Wednesday at 18:00 GMT and on Friday at 20:45 GMT. The president of the ECB always has strong influence on Euro, as his words are carefully listened to. the first speech is at the inauguration ceremony of the The Language of Money in Frankfurt. The second will be at Institute of Economic Policy Research, in Stanford. The times of his speeches will sure be volatile.
6. French Final Non-Farm Payrolls: Published on Thursday at 7:45 GMT. The French employment situation is getting worse. According to the first release, the number of employees fell by 0.4% in Q4 – the sixth quarter in a row. This will probably be confirmed now.
7. ECB Monthly Bulletin: Published on Thursday at 9:00 GMT. This publication contains the data that the ECB sees before it makes its decisions, and usually reveals economic data that hasn’t been release before. It has some impact on the Euro.
8. German WPI: Published on Friday at 7:00 GMT. The wholesale price index gives another glimpse on Europe’s prices. A big surprise was reported last month, as prices jumped by 1.3%. They weren’t expected to budge. A rise of 0.6% is predicted this time.
9. Industrial Production: Published on Friday at 10:00 GMT. After Germany and France already released their figures, the all-European number is due, but it still moves the currency and tends to surprise. Last month’s output dropped by 1.6%, quite a disappointment. A rise of half this scale, 0.8% is expected this time.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro began with a new test of the 1.3423 line, but bounced back up and reached a peak at 1.3735 before closing at 1.3612, slightly lower than last week’s close.

I’ve added 1.3735 as a minor resistance line. It didn’t appear last week. Above, 1.3780 is another minor resistance line. 1.3850 already supports major resistance for the Euro and hasn’t been breached in over a month.

Beyond 1.3850, 1.40 was a previous support line and now serves as resistance. It’s followed by 1.42, but that’s far now.

Looking down, 1.3530 is still a very minor support line. As aforementioned, 1.3423 still holds, and this is the critical line for the Euro. A break of this important line will send the Euro tumbling down to 1.3080, the only significant hurdle out there.

I remain bearish on the EUR/USD.

Europe continues to suffer from economic stagnation, unemployment and debt. Although some data is marginally better, the sentiment continues to be negative.

This pair receives lots of great review on the web. Here are a few:

• Casey Stubbs covers the pair with his 4 hour charts.
• James Chen sees the pair range-bound within the downtrend.
• The Geek Knows reviews the week and looks forward.
• Joel Kruger sees a stall in action before more possible downtrend.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major event in all currencies, read the forex weekly outlook.
• For GBP/USD, look into the British Pound forecast.
• For the Australian dollar, read the AUD/USD forecast.
• For USD/CAD, check out the Canadian dollar forecast.

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