Forex Fundamental Analysis

2011-11-01T14:30:00.000+07:00

8 Things You're Doing Wrong in Your Forex Trading

So you’re new to forex? Or perhaps you’ve been trading for a while now and things just aren’t working out for you? Maybe you’re committing one of the errors below. Whatever you do, don’t be too hard on yourself. Many traders at one point make one (or all) of these mistakes.
Mistake 1: Risking too much
This is a mistake that all too many forex traders make. Sometimes people view the forex market as a get-rich-quick market and get burned as a result of it. With sensible risk management techniques, trading currency is great way to diversify your portfolio.

Professional traders recommend that you should not trade more than 2-5% of your equity per trade, and the max-draw-down (the absolute maximum amount you’ll let a trade lose) be no more than 5%. Invariably this limits your gains, but most importantly it limits your losses.

The fact is you’re going to have a bad trading day; it happens to the best of the best. But what separates the men from the boys is how they handle the bad days.

Don’t let a bad trading day be your last trading day.
Mistake 2: Improper risk-reward ratio

Did you know that you can have a losing trading strategy (meaning your strategy is wrong more often than it’s right) and still be profitable? In reality it seems that the inverse is more common: a winning forex trading strategy that is not profitable.

The culprit? Improper risk-reward ratios.

For example, assume you have a strategy that is right 80% of the time. Awesome, right? Well, if the average take profit is 15 points yet the stop loss is set at 75 points the strategy isn’t as awesome anymore.

Having good risk-reward ratios – letting your winners ride and cutting the losers early – just might turn an otherwise losing strategy into a winning strategy.
Mistake 3: Never admitting you’re wrong
Whenever you catch yourself saying, “It just can’t go any lower!” it’s time to step away from your trading. Don’t beat yourself up though; it’s human nature: we all hate being wrong and we hate cutting that losing trade.

Try this: instead of setting a normal stop loss when placing a trade, ask yourself, “at what point am I wrong?” This point might be market support or resistance, or when your indicator of choice reaches a certain point.

You might find that the point you are “wrong” isn’t as far away as what your stop loss would have been, meaning it could end up saving you a lot of pips.

Remember, the question is not, “how much am I willing to lose?”

The question should be, “when am I wrong?”
Mistake 4: Trading live before demo

Always, always, always! test your strategy out on a demo account first. Even if you’re implementing a winning trading strategy used by someone else you should still test it on a demo account.

When testing on a demo account, remember that back-testing is good but forward-testing on a demo account is best. Back-testing is great for getting a general idea of accuracy, but it can’t duplicate live market conditions nor evoke possible trader emotions (more on this later).

At a minimum you should forward-test a strategy for a few months. The longer the better.
Mistake 5: Too much leverage
The forex market is leveraged like no other market (which is one reason why forex is so popular). Many traders come to the forex market fantasizing about making huge gains overnight, but at the same time forget that they are more likely instead to sustain huge losses.

This leverage definitely can be used for good, but it requires first an intimate understanding of the effects of leverage and an absolute diligence with risk management: for leverage knows no mercy.

Leverage makes for larger profits, but also larger losses.
Mistake 6: Pulling trades out of thin air

We often think there are two different kinds of trades: buy and sell. But in reality there is a third kind that often gets neglected: hold. In other words, you can buy or sell, or you can do nothing.

Novice traders often think that they have to be trading in order to be profitable, and when their trading strategy isn’t giving any signals they go off looking for opportunities. More often than not, what happens is traders pull trading opportunities out of thin air and end up getting burned.

Raghee Horner said it best: Don’t look for reasons *to* trade; look for reasons *not* to trade. By having this mindset traders can (hopefully) prevent talking themselves into a bad trade and can (hopefully) look for possible reasons why a trade signal may not work out.

Sure, this cause you to not take some trades that would have ended up being profitable; but you might also find that you miss trades that would have ended up negative.
Mistake 7: Investing money you can’t afford to lose

No matter how good you think your trading strategy is, you should never invest money you can’t afford to lose. The saying “hope for the best, plan for the worst” definitely rings true here. What if your strategy had a horrible day? It happens. You may tell yourself that it’s extremely unlikely that such an event would happen to you, but don’t think for a second that it’s not possible (and if you’ve been trading the forex market long enough you know that the “extremely unlikely” just might happen sooner than later).

And if that happens will it affect your standard of living? Will your spouse want a divorce? If so, then you are investing money you can’t afford to lose.

Last, but definitely not least:
Mistake 8: Letting emotions control you
There is a theme to this article, that being that many of the pitfalls of trading are emotion-based. Emotions wanting us to risk it all; emotions wanting us to keep that losing trade in hopes that it willl become a winning trade; emotions rushing us to a live account instead of slowing down and testing on a demo account first; emotions wanting us to take that trade even though the signal isn’t that good.

Emotions may be the hardest thing for amateur traders to control, but the fact that it’s difficult highlights its importance.

One of the most important things you can do to combat emotions is to develop a well-rounded trading plan and stick to it. Having a trading plan can help you establish do’s and don’ts (i.e., do enter a trade when certain criteria is met, don’t let a losing trade lose more than 5%, etc.), thus helping to remove emotions that make us second-guess.

Another way to help you control emotions is to utilize fractional lot sizes available with all Interbank FX accounts. The emotions that come with trading are usually different between live and demo accounts, but traders can transition from demo to live by essentially trading cents. Even though you’re only dealing with nickels and dimes, the profit or loss is still real. And no matter how hard you try, that is not an emotion that can be duplicated with a demo account.

As discussed in Mistake #4, we recommend you start with a demo account, then transition to a live account by trading 0.01 lots and slowly work your way up to a proper risk level (as learned from Mistake #1).

Share this! Help prevent your friends from making these mistakes.

The Power Of 1075

2011-10-17T10:51:00.000+07:00

The meaning of 1075 is what i called
10 Pips, 7 Pips and 5 Pips.

You know trade is not just activity to find money.
But we must combine with Rules and Plan

Start this year, after i learn from year to year,
finnaly i found this metode.
which you can see at myPerformance.

Be Patience is the key to your future.
So lets start today !
and we will seeing on year 2014
See u

Trading Mind

2011-06-21T09:58:00.000+07:00

The Losing Mind of A Continuous Losing Trader
Prominent Features Are As Follows:
-Trading With NEWS.
-Trading With Others Opinion Instead Of Market Analysis Tools.
-Trading With Personal Opinion Instead Of Market Analysis Tools.
-Does Not Follow Rule Based Trading Approach.
-Trade With Hope And Emotions.
-Trading Without Patience And Discipline.
-Gets Out Of Winners Too Early.
-Hold On Losses For Long.
-Use Large Stop Loss As Compare To Profit Target.
-Does Not Place Stop Loss At All.
-Use Poor Money Management Rules.
-Wants To Trade And Earn Money Daily.
-Trading With Greed And Fear.
-Always Afraid To Enter Positions.
-Gets Too Aggressive With Lot Size.
-Keeps Changing Trading Strategy.
-Does Not Have Consistent Profitable Method.
-Does Not Think Why Losing Money; After Losing A Trade.
-Too High Expectations From Trading.
-Get Burned By Not Being Able To Admit Defeat.

The Winning Mind Of A Continuous Winning Trader
Prominent Features Are As Follows:
- Trading With Pure Technical Analysis.
- Trading With Market Analysis Tools.
- Always Follow Rule Based Trading Approach.
- Always Trade With Patience And Discipline.
- Always Use Protective Trailing Stop.
- Quickly Close Bad Losing Trades.
- Always Use Less Stop Loss As Compared To Profit Target.
- First Place Stop Loss And Then Place Profit Target.
- Use Tested Money Management Rules.
- Only Trade When There Is A Valid Signal.
- Follows What Charts Tell And Enter Trade Without Fear.
- Does Not Get Aggressive With Lot Size.
- Keeps Using Consistent Profitable Trading Strategy.
- Always Carry 1 To 3 Consistent Profitable Methods In Their Arsenal.
- After Losing A Trade, Start Thinking And Finding The Reasons Behind Failure.
- Keeps Reasonable Expectations From Trading.
- Admits Defeat After Losing Trade And Wait For Next Trade.

Monday - May 30, 2011

2011-05-30T16:49:00.000+07:00

DJMN: Gadhafi's "Reign Of Terror" Nearing End, Says NATO Chief

VARNA, Bulgaria (AFP)--Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi's "reign of terror" is nearing its end, NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said Monday, as Libya braced for talks on an "exit strategy" for him.
"Gadhafi's reign of terror is coming to an end," Rasmussen told a plenary session of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's parliamentary assembly in the Bulgarian Black Sea town of Varna.
"He is increasingly isolated at home and abroad. Even those closest to him are departing, defecting or deserting. ...It is time for Gadhafi to go as well," he said.
His comments came as South African President Jacob Zuma was due to arrive in Libya Monday for talks that officials said would focus on an "exit strategy" for Gadhafi.
Rasmussen was also upbeat about the results of NATO's military intervention to enforce a United Nations-backed no-fly zone over the conflict-torn north African country.
"Our operation in Libya, Operation Unified Protector, is achieving its objectives and we are preventing Gadhafi from achieving his," Rasmussen said.
"In just two months we have made significant progress. We have seriously degraded Gadhafi's ability to kill his own people," he added.
He insisted on NATO's readiness to keep pressuring Gadhafi's regime as long as necessary.
"We will keep up the pressure until all attacks and threats of attack against civilians have stopped, until the regime has withdrawn its forces and mercenaries back to their bases and barracks, and until full, safe and unhindered humanitarian access is guaranteed to all those who need it."
But Rasmussen also highlighted the need to make use of military pressure as the basis for shepherding a long-lasting political solution to the crisis in Libya.
"It is clear that the crisis cannot be solved through military means alone. If we are to see genuine peace in the country, then a political solution will need to be found," he said.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 30, 2011 05:47 ET (09:47 GMT)

Monday, May 30, 2011

2011-05-30T16:44:00.001+07:00

DJMN: UK Political, Economic Calendar - Month Ahead -1

All dates are in local time

Tuesday, June 21, 2011 Exp Prev
Local/GMT/ET
1100/1000/0600 Jun CBI Monthly Industrial Trends Survey
Export Order Book Balance -3
Manufacturing Output Balance 20
Price Expectations Balance 24
Total Order Book Balance -2

Wednesday, June 22, 2011 Exp Prev
Local/GMT/ET
0930/0830/0430 Jun Bank of England - Bank of England MPC meeting minutes
MPC Vote Against Action 3
MPC Vote For Action 6
MPC Vote Against Action
(Higher) 3
MPC Vote Against Action
(Lower) 0
0930/0830/0430 Jun Agents' Summary of Business Conditions

Thursday, June 23, 2011 Exp Prev
Local/GMT/ET
0930/0830/0430 May BBA main high street banking groups statistics
1100/1000/0600 Jun CBI Monthly Distributive Trades Survey
Retail Sales Volume Index 18
Retail Sales Volume Index
(Future Expected) 14

Friday, June 24, 2011 Exp Prev
Local/GMT/ET
N/A Bank of England - Bank of England Financial Stability
Report

(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 30, 2011 05:41 ET (09:41 GMT)

Monday, May 30, 2011

2011-05-30T16:41:00.000+07:00

DJMN: UK Political, Economic Calendar - Month Ahead

All dates are in local time

Monday, May 30, 2011 Exp Prev
Local/GMT/ET
N/A United Kingdom - UK public holiday - Spring Bank
Holiday

Tuesday, May 31, 2011 Exp Prev
Local/GMT/ET
1100/1000/0600 Apr Land Registry House Price Index
N/A Bank of England - Andrew Sentance's term as Bank of
England Monetary Policy Committee Member ends

Wednesday, June 1, 2011 Exp Prev
Local/GMT/ET
0930/0830/0430 May Monetary & Financial Statistics
0930/0830/0430 Apr Sectoral breakdown of aggregate M4 and M4 lending
0930/0830/0430 Apr Bank of England's UK residents deposits & lending
analysis
0930/0830/0430 Apr BSA savings & mortgage lending figures
0930/0830/0430 May Bank of England narrow money
0930/0830/0430 Apr Bank of England effective interest rates
0930/0830/0430 May CIPS Manufacturing PMI
Manufacturing Output 54 54.6
0930/0830/0430 Apr Bank of England lending to individuals figures
Consumer Credit 0.25B 0.1B
Consumer Lending 0.5B
Mortgage Approvals 47250 47557
Mortgage Lending, GBP 0.9B 0.4B
N/A Bank of England - New Bank of England Monetary Policy
Committee Member

Thursday, June 2, 2011 Exp Prev
Local/GMT/ET
0930/0830/0430 May CIPS Construction PMI
Construction PMI 53.6 53.3

Friday, June 3, 2011 Exp Prev
Local/GMT/ET
0930/0830/0430 May UK Official Reserves
0930/0830/0430 Q1 Bank of England external business stats
0930/0830/0430 May CIPS Services PMI
Manufacturing Output 54 54.3

Monday, June 6, 2011 Exp Prev
Local/GMT/ET
0900/0800/0400 May UK monthly car registrations figures

Tuesday, June 7, 2011 Exp Prev
Local/GMT/ET
0001/2301/1901 May BRC-KPMG Retail Sales Monitor
Same Store, YoY +5.2%
Total, YoY +6.9%

Monday, June 6, 2011 Exp Prev
Local/GMT/ET
N/A May Halifax House Price Index expected around now
Halifax House Price Index
Monthly -1.4%
Halifax House Price Index
Yearly -3.7%
N/A International Monetary Fund - Acting IMF Managing
Director John Lipsky commences two-day visit to London

Tuesday, June 7, 2011 Exp Prev
Local/GMT/ET
1000/0900/0500 Treasury Committee - Treasury Committee session on
'Appointments to the interim Financial Policy
Committee'

Wednesday, June 8, 2011 Exp Prev
Local/GMT/ET
0001/2301/1901 May Shop Price Index
0001/2301/1901 May REC & KPMG Report on Jobs

Tuesday, June 7, 2011 Exp Prev
Local/GMT/ET
N/A International Monetary Fund - Acting IMF Managing
Director John Lipsky concludes two-day visit to London

Wednesday, June 8, 2011 Exp Prev
Local/GMT/ET
N/A Jun Bank of England - Bank of England Monetary Policy
Committee meeting

Thursday, June 9, 2011 Exp Prev
Local/GMT/ET
0930/0830/0430 Apr UK trade
Global Goods Trade Balance
(Adjusted) -7.7B
Non-EU Trade Balance
(Adjusted) -4.5B
1200/1100/0700 Jun Bank of England - UK interest rate decision
Bank Rate 0.5
N/A Society of Business Economists - Philadelphia Fed
President Charles Plosser at SBE Annual Conference in
London

Friday, June 10, 2011 Exp Prev
Local/GMT/ET
0930/0830/0430 May Bank of England / Gfk NOP Quarterly Inflation
Attitudes Survey
0930/0830/0430 Apr UK monthly industrial production figures
Industrial Production +0.2%
Industrial Production Monthly +0.3%
Industrial Production Yearly +0.7%
Manufacturing Output +1.1%
Manufacturing Output Monthly +0.2%
Manufacturing Output Yearly +2.7%
0930/0830/0430 May UK producer prices
Core PPI Monthly +0.6%
Core PPI Yearly +3.4%
Input PPI Monthly +2.6%
Input PPI Yearly +17.6%
Output PPI Monthly +0.8%
Output PPI Yearly +5.3%
1500/1400/1000 May NIESR Monthly GDP Estimates
N/A International Monetary Fund - IMF deadline for
Managing Director nominations

Monday, June 13, 2011 Exp Prev
Local/GMT/ET
0001/2301/1901 May UK Regional PMI
0001/2301/1901 Q2 Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin

Tuesday, June 14, 2011 Exp Prev
Local/GMT/ET
0001/2301/1901 Q3 Manpower Quarterly UK Employment Outlook Survey
0001/2301/1901 May RICS UK Housing Market Survey
House Prices -21
0930/0830/0430 May UK monthly inflation figures
CPI Monthly +1%
CPI Yearly +4.5%
CPI Core Monthly +0.9%
CPI Core Yearly +3.7%
Retail Price Index Monthly +0.8%
Retail Price Index Yearly +5.2%
0930/0830/0430 Jun Financial Statistics
0930/0830/0430 Apr CML Regulated Mortgage Survey
0930/0830/0430 Apr DCLG House Price Index

Wednesday, June 15, 2011 Exp Prev
Local/GMT/ET
0001/2301/1901 May Scottish Retail Sales Monitor
0001/2301/1901 May Nationwide Consumer Confidence Index
0930/0830/0430 Jun UK monthly unemployment figures
Average Earnings (Ex-Bonuses) +2.1%
Jobless Claimant Rate - % of
Workforce 4.6%
Jobless Claimants (Adjusted) +12400
ILO Unemployment Rate 7.7%
Unemployment Net Change -36000
N/A City of London Corporation - George Osborne delivers
annual Mansion House speech

Thursday, June 16, 2011 Exp Prev
Local/GMT/ET
0930/0830/0430 May UK monthly automotive production figures
0930/0830/0430 May UK monthly retail sales figures
Retail Sales Monthly +1.1%
Retail Sales Yearly +2.8%
N/A Bank of England - Interim Financial Policy Committee
meets for 1st time

Friday, June 17, 2011 Exp Prev
Local/GMT/ET
0930/0830/0430 Q1 Bank of England on UK banks external claims

Monday, June 20, 2011 Exp Prev
Local/GMT/ET
0001/2301/1901 Jun Rightmove Monthly House Price Index
0930/0830/0430 May Bank of England capital issuance
0930/0830/0430 May CML mortgage lending figures
1230/1130/0730 Jul CML Market Commentary

Tuesday, June 21, 2011 Exp Prev
Local/GMT/ET
0930/0830/0430 May Public sector finances
Public Sector Net Borrowing,
GBP, exinterventions 10B
Public Sector Net Borrowing
Year Ago 7.3B
Public Sector Net Cash
Requirements, GBP 3.3B
Public Sector Net Cash
Requirements Year Ago -5.8B

(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
May 30, 2011 05:41 ET (09:41 GMT)

Monday - May 30, 2011

2011-05-30T16:39:00.001+07:00

DJMN: Germany Political, Economic Calendar - Month Ahead

All dates are in local time

Tuesday, May 31, 2011 Exp Prev
Local/GMT/ET
0800/0600/0200 Apr Retail Trade
Retail Sales Monthly +1.7% -2.7%
Retail Sales Yearly -3.5%
1000/0800/0400 May Labour market statistics (incl unemployment)
Jobless Claims (Adjusted) -30000 -37000
Jobless Claims (Unadjusted) 3.08M
Jobless Rate (Adjusted) 7 7.1
Jobless Rate (Unadjusted) 7.3

Wednesday, June 1, 2011 Exp Prev
Local/GMT/ET
0955/0755/0355 May Germany Manufacturing PMI
PMI Manufacturing 58.2 62
N/A European Central Bank - European Central Bank
President Jean-Clude Trichet in Aachen

Thursday, June 2, 2011 Exp Prev
Local/GMT/ET
N/A European Central Bank - European Central Bank
President Jean-Clude Trichet in Aachen

Friday, June 3, 2011 Exp Prev
Local/GMT/ET
0955/0755/0355 May Germany Services PMI
PMI Services 54.9 56.8

Tuesday, June 7, 2011 Exp Prev
Local/GMT/ET
1200/1000/0600 Apr Manufacturing orders
Domestic Orders (Adjusted) -3.5%
Foreign Orders (Adjusted) -4.3%
Total Manufacturing Orders
(Adjusted) Monthly, Del -4%
Total Manufacturing Orders
(Unadjusted) +8.4%

Wednesday, June 8, 2011 Exp Prev
Local/GMT/ET
0800/0600/0200 Apr Foreign Trade
1200/1000/0600 Apr Industrial Production Index
Industrial Output (Adjusted)
MoM +0.7%
Industrial Output (Adjusted)
YoY +11.2%
Construction Output Pct Chg
MoM +6.2%
Industrial Output Pct Chg YoY +9.7%
Manufacturing Output Pct
Change MoM +0.5%

Thursday, June 9, 2011 Exp Prev
Local/GMT/ET
0800/0600/0200 Q1 Labour cost index
0800/0600/0200 Apr Manufacturing turnover

Friday, June 10, 2011 Exp Prev
Local/GMT/ET
0800/0600/0200 May CPI
Consumer Price Index Final
(Mon) +0.2%
Consumer Price Index Final
(Yr) +2.4%
N/A Apr Balance of Payments
N/A Center for Financial Studies - The ECB and Its
Watchers conference

Friday, June 17, 2011 Exp Prev
Local/GMT/ET
0800/0600/0200 May WPI

Monday, June 20, 2011 Exp Prev
Local/GMT/ET
0800/0600/0200 May PPI
PPI MoM +1%
PPI YoY +6.4%
PPI MoM (Excluding Energy) +0.4%
PPI YoY (Excluding Energy) +4.2%

Tuesday, June 21, 2011 Exp Prev
Local/GMT/ET
1100/0900/0500 Jun ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment
Current Conditions 91.5
Economic Expectations 3.1

Thursday, June 23, 2011 Exp Prev
Local/GMT/ET
0930/0730/0330 Jun Germany Flash PMI
Purchasing Managers Index -
Composite 56.4
Purchasing Managers Index -
Manufacturing 58.2
Purchasing Managers Index -
Services 54.9

Friday, June 24, 2011 Exp Prev
Local/GMT/ET
1000/0800/0400 Jun Ifo Business Climate Index
Business Expectations Index 107.4
Business Sentiment Index 114.2
Current Conditions Index 121.4

(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 30, 2011 05:29 ET (09:29 GMT)

Overview of the upcoming week

2009-12-13T23:42:00.001+07:00

This is Felix with an overview of the upcoming week.

1. Sunday, December 13 (16:45 New York Time) New Zealand
We will be trading New Zealand Core Retail Sales m/m. History & Charts:
Forex News Trading | Details and History for NZD Core Retail Sales m/m

2. Tuesday, December 15 (04:30 am New York Time) UK
We will be trading UK Core CPI y/y. History & Charts: Forex News Trading | Details and History for GBP Core CPI y/y

3. Tuesday, December 15 (05:00 am New York Time) Germany
We will be trading German ZEW Economic Sentiment. History & Charts: Forex News Trading | Details and History for GER ZEW Economic Sentiment

4. Tuesday, December 15 (19:30 New York Time) Australia
We will be trading Australian GDP q/q. History & Charts: Forex News Trading | Details and History for AUD GDP q/q

5. Wednesday, December 16 (03:30 am New York Time) Germany
We will be trading German Manufacturing PMI. History & Charts: Forex News Trading | Details and History for GER Manufacturing PMI

6. Wednesday, December 16 (08:30 am New York Time) USA
We will be trading US Core CPI m/m. History & Charts: Forex News Trading | Details and History for USD Core CPI m/m

7. Wednesday, December 16 (14:15 New York Time) USA
We will be trading US Interest Rate Statement. History & Charts: Forex News Trading | Details and History for USD Interest Rate Statement

8. Thursday, December 17 (04:30 am New York Time) UK
We will be trading UK Retail Sales m/m. History & Charts: Forex News Trading | Details and History for GBP Retail Sales m/m

9. Thursday, December 17 (07:00 am New York Time) Canada
We will be trading Canadian Core CPI m/m. History & Charts: Forex News Trading | Details and History for CAD Core CPI m/m

10. Friday, December 18 (04:00 am New York Time) Germany
We will be trading German IFO Business Climate. History & Charts:
Forex News Trading | Details and History for GER IFO Business Climate

Good luck
-Felix

Daily Market Comments - Friday 18 September 2009

2009-09-18T08:12:00.001+07:00

EUR-USD Current rise should end around 1.4776. Objectives of this downmove are 1.4697 or 1.4653. A rise above 1.4811 is again bullish.

USD-CHF No comment!

GBP-USD While below 1.6510 - 1.6538 it might drop to 1.6396 or 1.6340.

USD-JPY Current upmove should be ended around 91.3500 - 91.6267. Any correction consolidation should find support in 90.8050 - 90.5367 zone.

USD-CAD Market should hold major support at 1.0560 before rising towards 1.0685 or even 1.0723 limit.

NZD-USD It looks more likely that it would rise to 0.7150 - 0.7192 from 0.7094 or 0.7073. After which a downside move is expected.

AUD-USD There are initial signs of a good corrective recovery towards 0.8751 or even 0.8771. Supports at 0.8709 and 0.8687 zone.

EUR-JPY Current rise should end around 134.8934. Objectives of this downmove are 133.5334 or 132.7967. A rise above 135.5167 is again bullish.

EUR-CHF It looks more likely that it would rise to 1.5213 - 1.5266 from 1.5152 or 1.5126. After which a downside move is expected.

EUR-GBP Currently uptrend should end around 0.8977 - 0.8987 area. A correction down to below 0.8915 is expected. A rise above 0.9014 will abort the expected correction.

GBP-CHF There is bearish potential for a fall to 1.6910 - 1.6845 while 1.6975 - 1.7011 resist. After this fall a recovery up to 1.7011 or 1.7048 is expected.

GBP-JPY It looks more likely that it would rise to 150.8400 - 151.8300 from 149.7250 or 149.2300. After which a downside move is expected.

NZD-JPY There are initial signs of a good corrective recovery towards 64.9700 or even 65.1067. Supports at 64.6450 and 64.4567 zone.

AUD-JPY Resistances lie around 79.6850 and 79.8700. It should test lower towards 79.1100 zone. A clear break of 79.4200 would be bearish.

XAG-USD Preferred view is for a fall to 17.2300 - 17.0833 while 17.4700 - 17.5633 area resists. A clear break of 17.8567 would be bullish.

XAU-USD Preferred view is for a fall to 1011.9900 - 1007.9033 while 1018.9100 - 1021.7433 area resists. A clear break of 1029.9167 would be bullish.

2009-09-12T11:39:00.004+07:00

EUROPEAN FOREX PROFESSIONAL WEEKLY
September 11, 2009

Fundamentals
There were no major changes were in fundamentals during the last week. The same thoughts are prevalent and are repeating just in another way:
- Reiteration that US dollar LIBOR is the lowest amongst the G10s making the dollar the newest carry currency;
- UN calls for a new global reserve currency (not the first time they have done this but definitely the most recent);
- G20 communiqué reassuring the markets that the global monetary and fiscal stimulus will continue to run on all cylinders, prompting risk taking;
- US Manpower Survey providing a negative outlook on US employment situation;
- Congress returned to session elevating concerns over what they will do regarding the budget deficit;
- Chinese officials restating their intent to keep policy loose.

One thing that was relatively new is the Beige Book report. Although some Districts have reported that they see some improvement – the inflation expectations and employment situation are both still poor. During the week we’ve seen how the expectations of investors turn to decision making. The market was in consolidation since April 2009. During this time market participants have accumulated necessary information to make a decision for the nearest future (one month, maybe 2). It seems that market has needed a trigger, because it was ready for breakout. Also the breakout is coinciding with ending of vacation period.
I think that nearest couple of weeks (maybe month) can be bearish for dollar. Now we know, that rates remain low for a considerably long time, we do not see any improvement in consumer credit, spending, wages, unemployment, inflation; Fed is messed up with the short-term results of their TARP program. Beside that, we see a great budget deficit and attempts to start reforming the Healthcare sphere, which will need very big sums of money.
Next week macroeconomic data can have influences on the situation. The market will be quite volatile – (CPI, Capacity utilization, Production on Tuesday, FOMC on Wednesday, real estate market reports on Thursday).
Concerning th longer period, the situation is not so simple. There are some events that could lead he USD to become stronger during the autumn.
First, is the stock market, seasonally it goes up. If this will happen, then interest for more risky assets will grow, and this will push demand for USD.
Second, the end of the vacation period and the beginning of a school period can stimulate consumer spending. That may have positive impact during September-October. Since it may change or alter expectations for the short-term.
Third, there is a problem with banking corporate loans in Europe. German officials continue to reiterate the idea that a credit crunch is looming. This has already lead to grow in European bond and external loan issuance of $1.23B.
Résumé: I think that nearest week will be bearish for USD but not too much. Even as we talk about poor situation in USA, it not much better outside. There are no huge imbalances. The EUR/USD pair has all possibilities to reach August maximum 1.4720. The additional headache is that we will receive from important market data during the week. Concerning September-October, not all things look obvious; there are some moments that can lead to stronger USD, even for a short period of time.

Technical
Previous “trade possibilities (1)”:
1. May be a buy opportunity near low border of the wedge with profit around 1.43-1.4350. S/L should be placed under the border
2. Look at the way that situation with Gold will progress. If bullish breakout will be true, then keep out from short positions on EUR/USD pair. Otherwise short as higher to upper border of the wedge as possible, I think it will be real near 1.44-1.45 level. Stop 1.4725, profit 1.42-1.4250.

Monthly (EURO FX all sessions CME futures)
There are more bearish signs have appeared for the USD during the week. We have mentioned in previous research some movements - overbought levels are beginning to fade. Another movement that can reduce the force of a bearish signal is crossing of MACD lines. The Long-term line was not able to hold the downtrend. The crossing is under solid angle, and this is adding some worry about the future bearish perspective for the EUR/USD pair. Besides, price is over long-term 25-MA. But when the crossing is just near important Fib retracement level, we need to wait for real confirmation of a true MACD crossing – breakout of the 0.618 Fib retracement (look at the graph). During the previous up move (to 1.4720 level) price couldn’t hold above this level. The monthly period is long enough and the situation rarely changes dramatically. So, the most important thing now on the monthly basis is to watch for behavior of the market near the level 1.4620. Obviously that market-makers will be penetrate 1.4620 to clear orders around and we need some patience to get a real confirmation of a breakout if it happens.

I prefer to be out of the market on monthly basis during the next week. The signal for a down move of EUR/USD is still working (because 0.618 is still holding), but there are many signs that could lead to breakout of this level.

Concerning the weekly basis, we’ve got an upside break of the wedge. If we take a look on gold, then we’ll see that trade volumes support triangle upside break – volumes go up when price rises, and vice versa. During the breakout volumes were high. Also we need a Dollar Index graph. All these three graphs have a movement that confuses me a bit. Specifically – we do not see a volatility breakout. Look at the oscillator – it shows divergence on all three graphs. Usually, when a volatility breakout occurs, it can be a predictor of a strong move, and when we see an important breakthrough and th oscillator shows nothing, it can be a sign of potential to backward move. Besides, on the Dollar Index graph the 0.618 level is already broken.
Because of signals that we can not interpret sharply enough, it will be better if we can wait for some additional signals. From the one side – we see breakout on gold (that are confirmed with volumes), on the Dollar Index (and 0.618 break also). But from the other – divergence on the oscillator, strong resistance (Fib 0.618) and many macroeconomic data during the next week.

Daily (EURO FX all sessions CME September futures)
There is no much to add, except solid overbought. The level of overbought is not a record one, but still… Prices are just under the Fib 0.618, so it can add some resistance. But it not worth to paying too much attention to this movement.

Trade EUR/USD possibilities(1):

Monthly - Out of the market.

Weekly
I think that market has a momentum to reach a 1.4720 peak, but there are circumstances that will make pressure in the other direction. If we take into consideration weekly economic data, it could be very volatile. Even today, the USD can become stronger if Chinese economic data will be awful. It could be a chance to close non-profitable short positions if you already have them.

Daily
The same as a weekly. Maybe it would be better to concentrate on possible short moves on the 1-hour or 4-hour trades until the situation becomes clearer and not to try to catch solid moves. Be cautious during macro data releases.

1. “Trade possibilities” are not detailed trade signals. They are expectations about possible moves of the market during the week. One must learn to exercise judgement.

General Notice: Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the author does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions and estimates constitute author’s judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The opinions and recommendations herein do not take into account individual client circumstances, objectives, or needs and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, financial instruments or strategies to particular clients. The recipient of this report must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities or financial instruments mentioned herein.
Last edited by Sive Morten : Today at 02:57 AM.

Daily Market Comments - Friday 11 September 2009

2009-09-11T12:59:00.001+07:00

EUR-USD Currently uptrend should end around 1.4618 - 1.4629 area. A correction down to below 1.4518 is expected. A rise above 1.4676 will abort the expected correction.

USD-CHF Market should not go lower than 1.0372 - 1.0341. After this move down it should go up to 1.0425 - 1.0447 area.

GBP-USD Uptrend is still intact in a triangle configuration. It should continue to rally to 1.6695 or 1.6731 if support around 1.6606 hold. After which a pullback to 1.6606 - 1.6566 zone is possible.

USD-JPY It is likely to fall towards 91.3733 - 91.0167 unless a corrective rally breaks the 91.9950 resistance. Stop above 92.1733 zone.

USD-CAD Preferred view is for a fall to 1.0770 - 1.0734 while 1.0825 - 1.0843 area resists. A clear break of 1.0916 would be bullish.

NZD-USD It should try higher up to 0.7041 - 0.7084. Entry point 0.6999 or 0.6976. After this rise, a correction is expected.

AUD-USD It may attempt a test higher to 0.8642 - 0.8674 after which weakness may set it to a drift down to below 0.8576 limit.

EUR-JPY It is a triangle configuration . Market should break either side. Acceleration should occur above 134.3800 or under 133.3100 limits.

EUR-CHF Preferred outlook is for a drift down to below 1.5098. Resistances are at 1.5143 and 1.5160. A rise above 1.5171 would delay but not abort this expected fall.

EUR-GBP There is bearish potential for a fall to 0.8716 while 0.8772 - 0.8792 resist. After this fall a recovery up to 0.8792 or 0.8813 is expected.

GBP-CHF Current upmove should be ended around 1.7347 - 1.7406. Any correction consolidation should find support in 1.7230 - 1.7173 zone.

GBP-JPY Uptrend is still intact in a triangle configuration. It should continue to rally to 152.9435 or 153.2767 if support around 152.6033 hold. After which a pullback to 152.6033 - 152.3400 zone is possible.

NZD-JPY It looks set for gains to 64.9233. Supports at 64.1100 and 63.9433. A break of 63.2967 will damage this bullish structure.

AUD-JPY It may attempt a test higher to 79.4700 - after which weakness may set it to a drift down to 78.6733 limit.

XAG-USD Corrective dips should ideally halt near 16.3700 or 16.2600 for one more thrust upwards towards 16.6950 - 16.9100 area or 17.1300 in extention. Fall below 15.8300 puts it back on a downward path.

XAU-USD It may attempt a test higher to 997.4950 - 1002.3100 after which weakness may set it to a drift down to below 986.9700 limit.

Daily Market Comments - Friday 11 September 2009

2009-09-11T12:59:00.000+07:00

Daily Market Comments - Tuesday 08 September 2009

2009-09-08T11:31:00.000+07:00

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR-USD Current rise should end around 1.4347 or 1.4362. Objectives of this downmove are 1.4301 or 1.4271. A rise above 1.4393 is again bullish.

USD-CHF Market should hold major support at 1.0544 before rising towards 1.0620 or even 1.0641 limit.

GBP-USD It looks more likely that it would rise to 1.6419 - 1.6489 from 1.6337 or 1.6302. After which a downside move is expected.

USD-JPY While below 93.1900 - 93.3100 it is more likely to fall further towards 92.9550 or 92.8400. Premature rise above 93.3100 could see it rising above 93.5400 zone.

USD-CAD It may meet resistance in 1.0782 - 1.0797 zone for a drift down to 1.0726 zone, after which bounce to 1.0853 is anticipated.

NZD-USD One move lower to 0.6892 or 0.6856 is anticipated while below 0.6931 - 0.6949 area. Stop loss above 0.6970 zone.

AUD-USD One move lower to 0.8520 or 0.8482 is anticipated while below 0.8567 - 0.8586 area. Stop loss above 0.8614 zone.

EUR-JPY Should test support at 132.9600 while below 133.4100. If support at 132.9600 holds it can rise up to 133.8700, if not it should fall to below 132.5100 zone.

EUR-CHF Corrective dips should halt near 1.5142 for one more thrust upwards towards 1.5196. Stop loss below 1.5126 zone.

EUR-GBP Current rise seems to be over near 0.8773 or 0.8792 for a retracement towards 0.8755 - 0.8742 area.

GBP-CHF There is bearish potential for a fall to 1.7286 while 1.7346 - 1.7367 resist. After this fall a recovery up to 1.7367 or 1.7388 is expected.

GBP-JPY There are initial signs of a good corrective recovery towards 152.7050 or even 153.0733. Supports at 151.8750 and 151.4133 zone.

NZD-JPY One move lower to 64.0867 or 63.7033 is anticipated while below 64.5650 - 64.7567 area. Stop loss above 65.0433 zone.

AUD-JPY One move lower to 79.2367 or 78.8433 is anticipated while below 79.7400 - 79.9367 area. Stop loss above 80.2433 zone.

XAG-USD Currently uptrend should end around 16.4100 - 16.4433 area. A correction down to below 16.2133 is expected. A rise above 16.5267 will abort the expected correction.

XAU-USD It should find support in 993.0750 - 991.8366 area for a rally to 999.9532. Unexpected fall below 988.6733 will dent this bullish view.

Daily Market - Friday 04 September 2009

2009-09-04T08:31:00.000+07:00

EUR-USD There are initial signs of a good corrective recovery towards 1.4299 or even 1.4321. Supports at 1.4243 and 1.4209 zone.

USD-CHF It should test 1.0695 area after which a sell off down to 1.0570 or extended to 1.0514 area is expected.

GBP-USD Resistances lie around 1.6365 and 1.6408. It should test lower towards 1.6232 zone. A clear break of 1.6301 would be bearish.

USD-JPY It may attempt a test higher to 92.7050 - 92.9567 after which weakness may set it to a drift down to 92.1267 limit.

USD-CAD It is likely to fall towards 1.0993 - 1.0967 as its corrective rally could falter in 1.1046 - 1.1073 area. Stop above 1.1126 zone.

NZD-USD Strength can extend to 0.6804 or even 0.6831 as declines are expected to find support at 0.6776 or 0.6749. Stop Loss below 0.6721 zone.

AUD-USD While below 0.8415 - 0.8448 it is more likely to fall further towards 0.8359 or 0.8337. Premature rise above 0.8448 could see it rising above 0.8493 zone.

EUR-JPY It should trade higher to 132.6667 while 131.9133 or 131.5900 offers support. Stop loss below 131.2667 zone.

EUR-CHF It should be subject to more sell off towards 1.5134 or 1.5127. Corrective upward swings should face resistance around 1.5152 area. A break of 1.5173 is bullish.

EUR-GBP It looks set to visit further lower territory down to around 0.8726 - 0.8706. Its corrective attempts should fail ahead of 0.8726 - 0.8770. Stop loss above 0.8809 zone.

GBP-CHF Uptrend is still intact in a triangle configuration. It should continue to rally to 1.7391 or 1.7393 if support around 1.7313 hold. After which a pullback to 1.7313 - 1.7288 zone is possible.

GBP-JPY Currently uptrend should end around 151.4650 - 152.1467 area. A correction down to 150.2950 - 149.8067 is expected. A rise above 153.1233 will abort the expected correction.

NZD-JPY It should trade higher to 63.2933 while 62.5767 or 62.3150 offers support. Stop loss below 62.0533 zone.

AUD-JPY Current rise seems to be over near 77.8900 or 78.3300 for a retracement towards 77.4500 - 77.2050 area.

XAG-USD Uptrend is still intact in a triangle configuration. It should continue to rally to 16.7067 or 16.4867 if support around 15.9133 hold. After which a pullback to 15.9133 - 15.7300 zone is possible.

XAU-USD One move lower to 978.6000 or 965.2000 is anticipated while below 994.7700 - 1001.4700 area. Stop loss above 1010.9400 zone.

GU Only !

2009-06-12T09:02:00.000+07:00

GBP/USD Scenario for today

Currently uptrend should end around 1.6717 - 1.6694 area. A correction down to below 1.6414 is expected. A rise above 1.6797 will abort the expected correction.

Yesterday : Loss
Today : Buy at Low.. TP 6694

GU Only !

2009-06-11T11:02:00.002+07:00

GBP/USD Scenario For Today

One move lower to 1.6241 or 1.6124 is anticipated while below 1.6415 - 1.6474 area. Stop loss above 1.6590 zone.

So.. i do this : SELL at 1.6415 TP 1.6255 SL 1.6615

GU Only !

2009-06-08T10:01:00.002+07:00

GBP/USD Scenario For Today
Support at 1.5958 or 1.5864 should hold the downside for a correction to above 1.6166 zone.

GU Only !

2009-06-05T09:17:00.000+07:00

GBP/USD Scenario for today

Current fall is near an end of wave around 1.6032 zone, a rally should then procede to above 1.6377. Fall below 1.5888 would cancel this scenario.

Prediction Forex Today Wednesday March 4, 2009

2009-03-04T11:49:00.000+07:00

Wednesday March 4, 2009

EUR-USD
Downtrend is still intact.It should continue to fall to 1.2541 or 1.2496 if resistance at 1.2586 area doesnt break . Direct rise above 1.2586 could turn the picture bullish for a corrective up move to 1.2619 or even 1.2652 limit .

USD-CHF
It should trade lower to 1.1697. Resistances are at 1.1773 and 1.1802. A break of 1.1800 is bullish.

USD-JPY
A corrective/consolidation activity between 97.25 and 99.51 is likely for a while.

GBP-USD
Current fall is near an end of wave around 1.3909 - 1.401 zone, a rally should then procede to above 1.4104 or 1.4144. Fall below 1.3889 would cancel this scenario.

Forex Prediction for Tuesday March 3, 2009

2009-03-03T06:46:00.000+07:00

EUR-USD
It may meet resistance in 1.2577 - 1.2585 zone for a drift down to 1.2553 zone, after which bounce to 1.2605 is anticipated.

USD-CHF
One move lower to 1.1707 or 1.1659 is anticipated while below 1.1776 - 1.18 area. Stop loss above 1.1845 zone.

USD-JPY
Market should hold major support at 96.6 before rising towards 97.94 or even 98.43 limit.

GBP-USD
It is likely to attempt nearer support at 1.3912 for extending further to below 1.3769 while below 1.4055 - 1.4172 area. Rise above 1.4243 would dampen this bearish expectation.

Forex Trading Signal 11/25/08

2008-11-26T00:42:00.000+07:00

Forex Trading Signal 11/25/08 - Today, 08:12 AM
Hi there my forex friend

Let's first review what happened on Monday.

German IFO came out much lower than expected but EUR/USD moved down by about 15 pips and then it moved the other way. EUR/USD was on buy mode, and German IFO could not change it. Well, the funny part of story is that I traded it with the SNW so I was selling EUR/USD and.... I made money. Well, the reason why I made money is because I have a pretty good experience and I saw EUR/USD acting strangely on -2.9 deviation so I decided to exit IMMEDIATELY.

Let's talk about Tuesday.

1a. Tuesday, November 25th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. GDP Annualized and Canadian Retail Sales. Last time we had U.S. GDP annualized (in August), on +0.6 deviation we had only 30 pips move on USD/JPY and eventually it retraced. Well, I think we can give a try with a buy signal on EUR/JPY or USD/JPY if it comes out at 0.0% or higher and expect 30 pips move. If it comes out at -1.0% or lower, USD/JPY may move down a little but bad news are not necessarily bad for the USD anymore so I will not be trading negative deviation at all. If anything, I want to trade only a good news with very conservative money management and very small profit target (say, around 15 pips or so).

1b. Tuesday, November 25th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
At 8:30 a.m. we will also have Canadian Retail Sales. I will not be trading it at all for a few reasons. The most important is we will have U.S. report at the same time. Also, we did not see decent deviations in past months so it is hard to predict how would it react. I do not want to test it on my account. I prefer not to trade than gamble. I do not gamble.

2. Tuesday, November 25th, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10:00 a.m. we will have U.S. Consumer Confidence. Last month it worked OK but it did not spike instantly so I don't really like trading stuff like that. Also, the deviation was huge and it took USD/JPY 5 minutes to move 45 pips. Sir Pips likes it, I am not really convinced to trade so I am going to write what he says but I will not be trading it myself. The range of expectations is between 30 to 45. If it comes out at 32 or lower, you might sell EUR/JPY or GBP/JPY. If it comes out at 44 or higher, you may buy EUR/JPY or GBP/JPY. It might work but this is not how I trade.

That's all for Tuesday.

To Our Success!

Forex Trading Signal 11/14/08

2008-11-14T22:15:00.000+07:00

Forex Trading Signal 11/14/08 - Today, 06:45 AM
Hi there my Forex friend

Let's talk about Friday.

At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. Retail Sales X Autos (Core). It is expected to come out at -1.2%. This is not as hot report as it used to be but we might see 30 pips spike on USD/JPY if it deviates by 0.5. Therefore, if it comes out at -1.7% or more negative, I would sell USD/JPY and expect 30 pips move; if it comes out at -0.7% or less negative, I would buy USD/JPY and expect 30 pips move as well. Do not trade it on other pairs than USD/JPY because currently it is tradable on USD/JPY only. I do not recommend trading against it because last month it would work whereas two months ago it did not work at all. That basically means that it can either move even more or retrace and go the other way. Probably right before the report we would have much clearer situation based on technicals what to do; I cannot tell you that now.

Then at 9:55 a.m. we will have Consumer Sentiment. I am not going to trade this report. If anything, maybe a huge positive surprise would move USD/JPY, something like +10 deviation, but even that can be very risky. I am making enough money with more reliable reports so I am going to skip this one.

That would be all for Friday.

To Our Success!

Forex Trading Signal 11/12/08

2008-11-13T00:23:00.001+07:00

Forex Trading Signal 11/12/08 - Today, 06:30 AM
Hi there my forex friend

Let's first review what happened on Tuesday.

At 5:00 a.m. we had German ZEW. It did not hit our trigger so it was a no trade for spike trading. However, trading against the number worked pretty well. If you followed that advice, you probably made around 15 pips or so.

Let's talk about Wednesday.

1. Wednesday, October 12th, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we will have UK Claimant Count Change. It is expected to come out at 40K. It is not tradable with the SNW, in my opinion. Because of BOE Inflation report coming out an hour later, I would skip this report at all.

2. Wednesday, October 12th, 2008 (5:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 5:30 a.m. we will have BOE Inflation report. This is not for beginners, and if you want to trade it, please watch the video for more detailed information.

3. Wednesday, October 12th, 2008 (4:45 p.m. New York Time) NEW ZEALAND
At 4:45 a.m. we will have Retail Sales headline coming out of New Zealand. It is expected to come out at 0.4. If it comes out at 1.0% or better and the other numbers are not conflicting, I would buy NZD/USD and expect 30 pips move. On the other, if it comes out at -0.2% or more negative and the other numbers are not conflicting, I would sell NZD/USD and expect 30 pips move as well. Be very careful because spreads tend to be very high for NZ reports.

That's all for Wednesday.

To Our Success!

Forex Trading Signal 09/16/08

2008-09-16T13:54:00.002+07:00

Forex Trading Signal 09/16/08
Hi there my Forex friend :)

Let's talk about Monday.

U.S. Empire Manufacturing came out much lower than expected but
the market did not care.

The RBA minutes came out a bit more neutral than expected, and the
price moved a little but probably it was more technical move than
fundamental.

Let's talk about Tuesday.

1. Tuesday, September 16th, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we will have UK CPI m/m. This time probably it would be
better to trade against the number. If it comes out at 0.7% or higher,
you should expect a quick spike up, and once you see that, short GBP/USD.
If it comes out at 4.4% or lower, wait for the move down and go long (buy).

2. Tuesday, September 16th, 2008 (5:00 a.m. New York Time) GERMANY, EURO ZONE
At 5:00 a.m. we will have German ZEW Economic Sentiment which is expected
to come out at -53. This can move the market. If it comes out at -60 or
lower, I would sell EUR/USD or EUR/JPY, and look for 40 to 50 pips move.
If it comes out at -46 or less negative, I would buy EUR/USD or EUR/JPY
and expect 40 to 50 pips move as well.

3. Tuesday, September 16th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. CPI Core m/m. If it comes out at 0.3%,
expect EUR/USD going down and then reversing. If it comes out at 0.1%,
expect EUR/USD going up, and then reversing so you can sell on the spike.

4. Tuesday, September 16th, 2008 (2:15 p.m. New York Time) USA
At 2:15 p.m. we will have U.S. Interest Rate Statement. It is expected
it will comes out at 2.00% although a lot of people expects them to cut
the rates. If they leave the rates unchanged, probably it would make
a sense to sell EUR/USD. If they cut the rates by 0.25, probably buying
EUR/USD would be a good idea. If they cut the rates by 0.50, I would
aggressively buy EUR/USD and look for 100 to 150 pips move.

That would be all for Tuesday.

To Our Success!

Forex Trading Signal 08/21/08

2008-08-21T14:17:00.000+07:00

Forex Trading Signal 08/21/08 - Today, 05:43 AM

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Hi there my forex friend

Let's first review what happened on Wednesday.

On Wednesday we had Canadian Retail Sales. The headline came out nearly as expected but the core number deviated by 0.9%. USD/CAD and EUR/CAD moved down by a little but without a support from the headline number it retraced pretty fast. If you traded EUR/CAD and your spread was not crazy, probably you managed to take a few pips profit.

Let's talk about Thursday.

1. Thursday, August 21st, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we are going to have UK Retail Sales m/m. I think I would like to see 0.5 deviation on m/m number but even 0.3 deviation can move the market. The problem with the smaller deviation is we will also get a revision and the y/y number so the smaller deviation you use, the higher risk of conflict is. With no conflict or even some support from the other numbers, 0.3 deviation should give you a nice move. The problem is you don't know if it we are going to get a conflict so I would not use such low trigger. I still think, however, 0.5 deviation should be good enough and in case of a conflict, it should be possible to exit at BE or a small loss. If you are more aggressive player, you may want to enter at 0.4 deviation. According to FPA calendar it is expected to come out at -0.2% but according to ForexFactory it is going to come out at -0.3% so let's say the consensus is -0.25%. So, if it comes out at +0.2% or higher, I would buy GBP/USD and expect 40 pips price action. If it comes out at -0.7% or lower (more negative), I would sell GBP/USD and expect 40 pips move as well. Alternatively, you can trade GBP/JPY and you may want to trade both. Recently, we see price actions retracing pretty fast so I would rather take a profit pretty soon.

2. Thursday, August 21st, 2008 (7:00 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
Then at 7:00 a.m. we will have Canadian CPI Core m/m coming out. It is expected to come out at 0.2%. If it comes out at 0.4% or higher, I would sell USD/CAD and look for 40 pips spike down. If it comes out at 0.0% or negative, I would buy USD/CAD and look for 40 pips spike up as well. It seems a lot of trades also pay attention to the headline m/m number but because CPI reports retrace very fast, I would not use 0.2 deviation on the headline number. If you really have to trade it, try 0.3 deviation on the headline number or 0.2 deviation on the core number, whichever comes first. According to ForexFactory calendar it is expected to come out at 0.3% but according to FPA calendar it is expected to come out at 0.4% so let's say it is expected to come out at 0.35%. If the headline m/m comes out at 0.6% or higher, I would sell USD/CAD and expect 40 pips spike down. If it comes out at 0.1% or lower, I would buy USD/CAD and expect 40 pips move as well. I will probably enter a trade at 0.7% or 0.0% on the headline number as I am not crazy about trading CPI reports anymore. If we get a tradable deviation, you MUST take your profit immediately. This may literally retrace in 10 seconds, and it might be a good idea to enter a trade at the top or bottom of the spike in the opposite direction. Most likely I will prepare a few automatic levels to be executed should the spike occur. Of course, such trades would be much smaller than a spike trade. THIS IS A VERY RISKY REPORT TO TRADE, especially if you trade the headline number.

3. Thursday, August 21st, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
Then at 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. Unemployment Claims. You may try to scalp a few pips on USD/JPY if it deviates by about 25K but that would be a small trade and be prepared to exit at BE. If it comes out at 470K or higher, that would be bad for the U.S. dollar, and I would sell USD/JPY and expect 20 pips move. If it comes out at 419K or lower, that would be good for the U.S. dollar and I would buy USD/JPY and expect 20 pips move as well.

4. Thursday, August 21st, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
Then at 10:00 a.m. we will have Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index. Well, I don't know what to expect from this indicator. Sometimes the price moves pretty well, sometimes it does not move the market at all. I guess you can try to trade it with 8 deviation if you have fixed or very low spread and you are around your trading station but I most likely will skip it.

That would be all for Thursday.

To Our Success!