Forex Loser Diary

euro has recovered

2011-03-02T03:54:00.002-05:00

Although euro has recovered after brief breach of y'day's NY 1.3762 sup to 1.3744 n sideways trading wud be seen, as long as Asian 1.3787 res holds, nr term decline fm Mon's high of 1.3857 to retrace recent upmove wud resume to 1.3730 n then 1.3712.

Sell on pullback with stop at 1.3795, break wud
risk stronger gain but 1.3854/57 res wud hold.

Range Forecast
1.3744 / 1.3770

Resistance/Support
R: 1.3795/1.3862/1.3900
S: 1.3730/1.3712/1.3693

http://www.acetraderfx.com

JPY to rise

2010-07-21T01:42:00.003-04:00

Good morning to all.

We think that this week-next monday jpy pairs will make yearly low.
Yesterday made last ride upside. Trade with your minds charts.

Minimum targets gbp/jpy 127.
Eur/JPY 105
Usd/JPY 84/83
Aud/JPY 70/71
Cad/JPY 76/75

Good FOREX trades.

US Dollar Predicted to Lose

2009-01-22T15:00:00.000-05:00

US Dollar Predicted to Lose Further Against Japanese Yen

I rather expext move higher to 100+.

and PPP reportedly 121.

FOREX: best dollar rise for month in 17 years

2008-11-02T11:38:00.002-05:00

NEW YORK, Oct 31 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar and yen posted sharp gains on Friday as investors turned more cautious after bleak U.S. economic reports heightened global recession fears.

The dollar, which was on track for its biggest monthly gain against a basket of currencies in more than 17 years, was also boosted by month-end demand from global fund managers seeking to rebalance foreign exchange hedges in their portfolios.

"The market expected poor October data, but the scale of it has reminded the market that even though we are at a phase where the liquidity risk is being priced out, the economic outlook is not particularly appealing," said Sebastien Galy, a currency strategist at BNP Paribas in New York.

Financial markets took little comfort from the Bank of Japan's interest rate cut, the latest monetary policy initiative after central banks in the United States, China, and other countries lowered rates this week to stem the negative impact of the credit crisis on their respective economies.

more...

Immigrant exodus leads to DIY cost hike

2008-06-03T04:23:00.001-04:00

Immigrant exodus leads to DIY cost hike

The cost of home improvements has risen by about a fifth as eastern European tradesmen who have provided cheap labour return home, a new report shows.

Link

Euro has potential to go higher

2008-04-18T03:33:00.000-04:00

I do think that the eur has potential to go higher in todays forex market, and most indicators i see are telling me that.
The only question is timing. It may be the time - it certainly looks like it right now. it may be in some time in the very near future.

I certainly dont see any usd strength as of now, in any denominator.

NZD/USD will remain under the gun of sellers today

2008-04-01T16:04:00.000-04:00

NZD/USD will remain under the gun of sellers today as yield interest in Kiwi fails to make comeback, looks unlikely in near term, says ANZ Bank; tips support at technical level of 0.7777 to be critical today.

Notes with Kiwi briefly breaching important support of 0.7806 overnight, pair now vulnerable.

Plus weak commodities and euro's steep losses overnight also weighing. "If this combination continues - and the tenor of official NZ data turns out as lead indicators suggest - the bird (Kiwi) looks set to continue riding down the elevator."

Becoming Independent Minded

2007-05-08T11:28:00.000-04:00

Becoming Independent Minded

Independence is essential for trading success. Or at least that's what authors of many books on trading psychology argue. Why must a trader be independent?

Joseph Schwab developed sophisticated arguments for teaching science as
"enquiry."An independent mind is one that is grounded in ‘enquiry’. Enquiry
demands the ability to develop significant questions and the ability to utilize
good judgment while separating the wheat from the chaff.
John Dewey, a great philosopher, psychologist, and pedagogy discussed the discrepancy between the skills valued in adults and the skills taught to children in schools. Dewey lamented the fact that independent thinking skills were demanded of adults but our children were being taught the converse in our schools.

Traders who can't think independently feel uncomfortable unless they receive support and confirmation. They are uneasy when dealing with uncertainty. And this sense of uneasiness often makes them act on impulse. The markets don't always provide you with confirmation for your decisions, however. It is difficult to trade in the short term if you wait for confirmation and require a sense of certainty. If you wait for a classic chart pattern to materialize completely, for example, you may be too late. Let's suppose that you wait for a head and shoulders pattern to develop. It may take some time, and by the time the full pattern results, and signals you to sell, it may be too late. You may end up selling as everyone else is also trying to sell. There are times when it is vital to anticipate the crowd and try to stay ahead of them. But staying ahead of the masses requires you to think independently.

If you are a successful person, you probably have some conforming tendencies. You have been able to identify important social rules and follow them. You may have a tendency to look for subtle situational cues to guide you, but universal rules or unfailing signals rarely exist in the markets. You must look inward toward your own personal rules and values. True independence is not the same thing as non-conformity. Just like the ultra-conformist, non-conforming rebels also allow societal norms to overly control their behavior; they merely automatically break the rules rather than automatically follow them. True individualists, instead, are willing to go against the crowd in effective ways. They don't break a norm just to be a rebel, but they break a rule because their own personal motives and values tell them that there is a valid, more compelling reason to go their own way. Complete independence means both the abandonment of conforming and non-conforming behavior. Individualists are free to conform or not conform; they do what they want. They strive for the optimal balance between complete self-reliance and identification with the broader group and societal norms.
How can you overcome the tendency to conform? Here's what you can do to compensate for the tendency to seek out assurance from others. First, learn to trust your instincts. Second, don't seek out or wait to receive the opinions of others. Third, accept the uncertainty of the markets; don't seek out confirmation and a sure thing. Conformists tend to want to seek the advice of others to relieve the unpleasant feeling of not being able to perfectly forecast the markets. But infallible experts are hard to find. They may be right for a while, but eventually they are wrong. And when they are, you get burned and feel disappointed. It's better to trust your own instincts and go your own way. Become aware of your desire to seek out and listen to other's opinions. Try not to, or at least wait until you have a clearly defined investment strategy before you do. By all means, though, don't follow the prevailing opinion if it contradicts your own. Look inward and go your own way. Making independent decisions isn't as difficult as it may seem. It just takes practice. Don't try to please anyone but yourself. Think independently and win.

thanks to marketwise.com

Closed GBP USD short trade

2007-01-16T08:38:00.000-05:00

Method is more important than strength, when you wish to control your enemies. By dropping golden beads near a snake, a crow once managed To have a passer-by kill the snake for the beads.
Henry Wadsworth Longfellow

The trade from here got closed by Stop Lose (New trade GBP USD short) Profit 220 pips.
A good start of the year to everybody!

Old trade GBP-USD-short update

2007-01-05T09:14:00.000-05:00

Want to update previous position with last actions:

1/4/2007 6:51:39 AM Sell GBP USD 1.9436
1/4/2007 6:56:25 AM Sell GBP USD 1.9440

Average positions now: SOLD GBP USD @ 1.9531
SL 1.9493 TP (to trail) 1.9113

Nice trading day today!
So much for the ADP!
NFP revision for prior month is higher to 154 from 132, very solid numbers. NFP is 167K (100K expected). Possible 1.91 next target for 1-2 sessions.

Good luck to all Forex losers.

New trade GBP USD short

2007-01-04T02:11:00.000-05:00

good day,

Yesterday went short GBP USD at 1.9716. The fact this pair closed bellow 1.9550 is encouraging for a new tests of 1.9470-1.9440.
...From USA we received a better than expected balance from all news yesterday. ADP survey must be confirmed tomorrow from NFP before to judge a bad situation in labour market, for the rest both ISM and Fed minutes are better than expectations and Dollar cud strengthen a little bit more specially against Yen.

Now I have trailing stop (70 points) with SL at the time of writing. If 1.9470-1.9440 broken today this position will be kept until daily Stochastics will turn up again for 2 days.

Euro short profit (+118 pips)

2006-12-11T08:39:00.000-05:00

12/1/2006 2:22:51 AM Sell EUR USD 1L 1.3265
12/10/2006 8:54:10 PM Buy EUR USD 1L 1.3147

Finally some profit here +118, waiting to short again @1.3240

Trading Quotes: Survival First

2006-11-30T17:07:00.000-05:00

Trading Quotes: Survival First

Survive first and make money afterwards.George Soros

Forex Brokers: Forex.com aka gain capital group

2006-11-30T13:47:00.000-05:00

Forex Brokers: Forex.com aka gain capital group : ...First experience in FX was with them. Absolutely horrid platform. Of dealing desk brokers, hard to get any worse, only ACM lies with them at the bottom of the barrel. Their rollover policies royally suck and they have all the disadvantages of a dealing desk broker with none of the advantages...

A novice looking for a broker will look firs for a reliable brokers not testing at least 4-5-6-more brokers. And this is a BIG mistake. Beside the trust in your broker, very important, if not most important, is to FEEL CONFORTABLE with that broker when trading!!!

Euro short closed. Stop lose hit

2006-11-30T12:01:00.000-05:00

Stop lose hit here.
Trading totals for November - 26 pips.

Tomorow will start another month. Very sad...

sort eurusd at 1,3173

2006-11-29T10:32:00.000-05:00

It is time to go tactically sort eurusd at 1,3173. stop at 1,3235. target 1,2900-1,3000.

Thanksgiving forex firework. Learning from the sharks

2006-11-27T07:15:00.000-05:00

I`m aside now. Already for 1 week. Still very confused regarding last 3 days USD fireworks. In fact Eur and GBP fireworked, USD losing ground very unexpected. Again it looks like a subtle plan to be done on thanksgiving holidays. Will wait to see the second part of the plan, learning from that sharks is good thing but almost all the time it is hidden. Now, in the light of last currencies market it is a bit easier to enlighten how it "works"... ;-)

Forex Shark(s):

little or no price action

2006-11-24T09:33:00.000-05:00

Think all week many expected little or no price action and wanted to discount it early on as it began unfolding. Contrary to contrary opinion as it is all part of the plan being carried out beautifully.

Eur/Usd MACD divergence and 3rd trendline

2006-11-24T02:20:00.000-05:00

Hi there

Not too active last days, just observing, analyzing, planning.
On the image bellow, possible, i did find the strategy for the next 10 days.

Next 2 4-hours candles have to confirm it.

Have fun, losers!

TRADING: A MIND GAME

2006-11-23T09:14:00.000-05:00

TRADING: A MIND GAME

Must change my mental attitude first from a normal person to that of a speculator.
Almost all traders simply waste all their time trying to learn the easiest part in perfection, like about how to read data and charts, and trying to perfect entry and exit skills, etc.
Trading is a mind game and without having a right frame of mind, it is a losing game even before it starts.
Training a trader`s mind is the first step for any successful trader but almost all new traders neglect that part and that explains why more than 95% of traders are a failure in the long run.

Acquiring the knowledge of the market is not difficult for anyone with average intelligence after a few years of hard study in the market. But it is neither the level of intelligence nor the knowledge that decides the outcome of the market operations of a trader. It is the decision making process that is so hard for most traders to overcome and that is the main reason for a success or a failure for all the traders. Some find it easy to make decisions and stick to it and most find it so hard to make decisions and stick to it. Unfortunately, any decision making process in trading is a pain-taking process and humans tend to avoid pains and go for pleasures even if for temporary ones. Assuming one has acquired enough market knowledge and acquired one`s proven trading system (this is the second most important element of success in trading, in fact. An edge in any system is based on the quality of info one has, charts being only an info of secondary quality not the best one)

Through studies and research, a trader faces the task of making decisions to put this knowledge and system into practice. Then, how many traders can honestly say they can commit their ranch when the trade is suggested by their own system (given that trading is just a chance game) and let the profit run for weeks and months when their system tells them, and how many can manage to cut the loss as a routine process when the situation arise. It all sounds so easy when saying it but so difficult when doing it affecting real money in the market. I still do not sleep well when I am running position because even if the profits are running into a few hundred dollars and the system is telling you to carry on, there is no guarantee that the profit will turn into a yard or two in a month time, and it may even turn into a loss in a day or two when something unexpected happens. A painstaking process in real sense. The pain is not knowing what will happen in the future and in fear of losing. So at the end of the day, assuming one has decent trading system and market knowledge and decent info, it is ultimately how disciplined and how well that trader can take the pain of making right decisions at the right time that decides the outcome of the trades. Hence I call trading a mind game. When I interview prospective young traders, I always look for disciplined and strong-willed person as my first priority as long as one has decent education, but strangely in many cases, it is some kind of genius or half-genius with lots of brains with no disciplines who turn up for an interview thinking only bright people can make good traders.

----------------------------------
respects to Shanghai BC from global-view Forex Forum

Forex PsYchology: Straight from the heart

2006-11-19T12:53:00.000-05:00

Forex PsYchology: Straight from the heart ...

Straight from the heart
Trading is a battle against human survival instinct. It takes a long time to have a person's brain rewire to the point where trying to survive doesn't override what that person does during the middle of it when the heat gets turned up. Everyone loses accounts their first year no matter how well they were consistently doing demo trading because when emotions start happening it literally stops a person from being able to press the button out of pure fear.

Analyzing trades. November

2006-11-16T07:36:00.000-05:00

I was analyzing November trades and got a bit confused, decided to create a table to be updated every time a trade is open/closed and link it from main page.

November trades:

Deal Date.Time		Buy.Sell	Currency	Deal Rate	Deal Date.Time	Buy.Sell	Deal Rate	Profit
START TRADE					CLOSE TRADE		TOTAL	20

1.	11.3.06 4:19 AM	Sell	EUR	1,2771				50
					11.3.06 8:32 AM	Buy	1,2721	50
2.	11.6.06 7:03 AM	Sell	GBP	1,8966				-35
					11.6.06 8:24 PM	Buy	1,9001	-35
3.	11.7.06 4:50 AM	Sell	NZD	0,6703				-24
					11.7.06 10:32 AM	Buy	0,6727	-24
4.	11.7.06 4:50 AM	Sell	EUR	1,2764				-23
					11.7.06 8:58 AM	Buy	1,2787	-23
5.	11.8.06 3:14 AM	Sell	EUR	1,277				-30
					11.8.06 4:07 AM	Buy	1,28	-30
6.	11.8.06 4:39 AM	Sell	GBP	1,9081				67
					11.8.06 9:37 AM	Buy	1,9014	67
7.	11.9.06 3:56 AM	Sell	GBP	1,9074				57
					11.9.06 8:22 AM	Buy	1,9017	57
8.	11.13.06 1:47 AM	Buy	EUR	1,287				-25
					11.13.06 4:34 AM	Sell	1,2845	-25
9.	11.13.06 4:36 AM	Sell	EUR	1,2844				9
					11.15.06 5:11 PM	Buy	1,2835	9
10.	11.16.06	Sell	EUR	1,281				-26
					11.16.06 8:30 AM	Buy	1.2836	-26

One trade closed tonight. Another one Euro short just opened

2006-11-16T06:56:00.000-05:00

Previous position update...

...Stops moved (trailing by hand): SL to 1.2835 TP - 1.2747

Stop lose hit point in point. That trade closed.
----------------------------------------------

New trade entered here:

11/16/2006 6:18:49 AM Sell EURO USD 1.281
SL to 1.2836 TP - 1.2747
----------------------------------------------

What i`m doing this month as a veritable forex loser trader:
The old adage "You have to have money to make money" is true. Without the necessary starting capital, i used taking too great risk in the past for too little reward. Now i`m considering my risk/reward profile for EVERY trade. Better FOR ME is a very close Stop Lose. Before counting my profits, considering first what i have to lose in the event the trade goes against me. Mean time i`m improving myself on a better Stop lose point calculation for every trade.
As a trader i`m in business for myself and i must proceed accordingly by preserving my capital.
Great quote about trader evolution to stick (don`t know its autor):
1. first you learn how to lose money
2. then you learn how not to lose money
3. then you learn how to make money
...most traders stay at (1.) and then eventually quit

I think i should mention some stats data: 10 November. No currencies traded today 62 pips - Euro long position closed by stop lose -25 pips + Forex markets another day in paradise 12 (with 3 earned pips on rollover) = 49 pips profit for November.
The updated trades score losers to winners up to now 6 / 3.

Dollar bullish position

2006-11-15T05:49:00.000-05:00

In my opinion my dollar bullish position is right one for this day, but euro has lost bit too less based on its crosses support, his decline not so much as other USD pairs.

Stops moved (trailing by hand): SL to 1.2835 TP - 1.2747

Monitoring eur crosses closest.

Profits to all! (impossible :-) )

Forex markets another day in paradise

2006-11-15T02:37:00.000-05:00

Forex markets another day in paradise

No moves yet...
Well another day in paradise. Still alive the EUR USD short position from 13 Nov. It seems markets preparing something special here, let's see what the market will offer.
...Feels like yesterday was a flush before something more meaningful as many (not me) were hacked on the zig-zag.

Euro short position oppened at 1.2844Targets: Stop Lose - 1.2888 Take Profit - 1.2877 and bellow.

If 1.2800 broken and hold the stop will be moved bellow with 35 pips. IF i`ll be on time ;-).

Have fun!