GBPJPY Forecast
The GBPJPY had a significant bullish momentum yesterday. On daily chart below we can see that the pair is now convincingly traded above the trendline resistance (red, now support) indicating potential further bullish scenario. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 153.22 area. Immediate support at 150.20. Break below that area should lead us into no trading zone but I still prefer a bullish scenario at this phase.

AUDUSD Forecast
As I had expected, the AUDUSD continued it’s bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 0.9307 and closed at 0.9305. The bias remains bullish in nearest term but watch out for a potential double top formation around 0.9327 area. We need a breakout above that area to confirm bullish continuation targeting at least 0.9400 before aim for 0.9500 as usually a bearish correction/reversal scenario failure lead to the other scenario: bullish continuation. Immediate support at 0.9250. Break below that area should lead us into no trading zone but I still prefer a bullish scenario at this phase.

U.K. manufacturing unexpectedly rose in October to 53.7 versus forecasts of 50, which was the fastest expansion in two years. The gauge for new orders surged from 52.7 to 59.5 which may be a signal that current growth is sustainable. The expansion in the manufacturing sector presents the BoE with a difficult decision. The central bank’s concerns over tight credit markets and its impact on consumer spending has increased speculation that they will add to their asset purchase program. However, if the economy continues to show signs of growth the threat of inflation may give policy makers a second thought.

Forex Rates Today Daily Market Commentary

The dollar paired losses versus the European currencies and managed to close higher versus the lower yielding franc and yen. Trading remains impaired by low liquidity and the end of month on Friday won’t improve conditions.  The contraction for third quarter GDP was not as bad as expected, but it confirms the start of a debilitating recession. The dollar remains in a medium-term uptrend against the European currencies and a downtrend versus the yen, but this pattern will be more visible staring November. Bon chance!

Euro/dollar

The euro/dollar fell from an 8-day high after a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and the 20-day moving average held, and closed little changed on Thursday. The medium-term bias remains bearish.

Immediate support is at 1.2805. Below 1.2695, distant support is now at 1.2335.
Initial resistance is at 1.3060. Above 1.3200, resistance is now seen at 1.3260. Distant resistance is at 1.3570 would signal a sustained recovery of euro/dollar.

Oscillators are bullish.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed with significant downside risk
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen climbed up on Thursday, but got stuck in an inside range.   My model remains long, but the medium-term outlook remains bearish.

Immediate resistance is at 99.70. Above 100.50, resistance is now seen at 103.05.

Initial support is at 97.25.  The next level is 95.70.  Below 94.40 there is Friday’s low of 90.94.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Sterling/dollar

Sterling/dollar marched higher on Thursday and my model remains long.  The upside is limited, as the medium-term outlook remains bearish.

Initial resistance remains at 1.6635. The next level is 1.6760. Distant resistance looms at 1.6940.

Immediate support is still seen at 1.6355. The next level is at 1.6090. Below 1.5735, distant support is at 1.5270 from a pivot low.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed with significant downside risk
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss reversed from a three-week low to close higher on Thursday. The medium-term risk remains on the upside.

Initial resistance is at 1.1420. Above 1.1500, the next level is 1.1767. This is followed by the area between 1.1867 and 1.1873.

Immediate support is at 1.1310.  The next level is 1.1180. Distant support comes at 1.1055.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
31-10-2008 Forex News Forex Commentary October 31

Forex Rates Today Daily Market Commentary

An early rally in the US indices and ongoing profit taking in FX triggered another massive slide on the dollar against the European and the commodity currencies, and a dollar/yen rally.  Once the Fed met the market expectations and cut rates by 50 bps to 1%, stocks fell.  The pattern seen during the past two days is in its final stages, so today the market should be even choppier than usual.
Euro/dollar

The euro/dollar rallied further after forming a bullish reversal a day earlier and my model remains long. The 20-day moving average held the upside, and only a clear break above it would turn the outlook positive. Until then, the medium-term bias remains bearish.

Above 1.3200, resistance is now seen at 1.3260. Distant resistance is at 1.3570 would signal a sustained recovery of euro/dollar.

Immediate support is at 1.3060. The next level is 1.2907. Below 1.2695, distant support is now at 1.2335.

Oscillators are bullish.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen rallied to a one-week high early Tuesday but then reversed gains, as the 20-day moving average held.  My model remains long, but the medium-term outlook remains bearish.  I wouldn’t be too long here.

Immediate resistance is at 98.45. The next level is 99.70. Above 100.50, resistance is now seen at 103.05.

Initial support remains at 96.75.  The next level is 95.70.  Below 94.40 there is Friday’s low of 90.94.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Sterling/dollar

Sterling/dollar surged further on Wednesday and my model remains long.  The upside is limited, as the medium-term outlook remains bearish.

Initial resistance is at 1.6635. The next level is 1.6760. Distant resistance looms at 1.6940.

Immediate support is at 1.6365. The next level is at 1.6090. Below 1.5735, distant support is at 1.5270 from a pivot low.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss caught up with the other the European currencies and collapsed on Wednesday. In the short term the downside is favored, but the medium-term risk remains on the upside.

Immediate support is at 1.1260.  The next level is 1.1180. Distant support comes at 1.1055.

Initial resistance is at 1.1400. Above 1.1500, the next level is 1.1767. This is followed by the area between 1.1867 and 1.1873.

Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
30-10-2008 Forex News Forex Commentary October 30

Forex Rates Today Daily Market Commentary

A massive rally in the US indices, signs of thawing of the credit markets and expectations for a large rate cut today made for a massive slide on the dollar against the European and the commodity currencies vis-à-vis a dollar/yen rally.  None of that is going to last for long, so let’s all enjoy it, at least until 2:15 PM today, when the FOMC will announce the size of the rate cut.

Euro/dollar

The euro/dollar reversed from a new low of its downtrend and formed a bullish reversal. My model went long. That was nice, especially for an oversold pair, but this reversal has no legs. The medium-term bias remains bearish.

Above 1.2840, resistance is seen at 1.3040. Only a break above 1.3260 would signal a sustained recovery of euro/dollar.

Immediate support is at 1.2645. The next level is 1.2555. Below 1.2445, distant support is now at 1.2335.

Oscillators are bearish.

NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen made its largest one-day reversal in a quarter century and my model went long.   But the 20-day moving average held and the medium-term outlook remains bearish.  I like selling into rallies from here.

Initial support is seen now at 96.75.  The next level is 95.70.  Below 94.40 there is Friday’s low of 90.94.

Immediate resistance is at 98.45. The next level is 99.70. Above 100.50, resistance is now seen at 103.05.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Sterling/dollar

Sterling/dollar rallied sharply on Tuesday and my model went long. But the pair remains in an inside range.  Thus, the downside is still favored, as the medium-term outlook remains bearish.

Initial resistance is at 1.6112. The next level is 1.6285. Distant resistance looms at 1.6540.

Immediate support is at 1.5815. The next level is at 1.5590. Distant support is at 1.5270 from a pivot low.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss was the exception to the rule and lacked much direction. It should edge higher soon, as the medium-term risk remains on the upside.

Immediate support is still seen at 1.1520 and 1.1485.  The next level is 1.1410. Distant support comes at 1.1205.

Initial resistance is at 1.1600. The next level is 1.1767. This is followed by the area between 1.1867 and 1.1873.

Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

29-10-2008 Forex News Forex Commentary October 29

Forex Rates Today Daily Market Commentary

Ongoing rumors/fears of a possible default by large institutional investors/hedge funds ensured another rally of the dollar the European currencies and a sharp slide against the yen.  A weak IFO report and a seemingly strong US housing report didn’t do much of an impact, as the problem is much bigger. The US consumer confidence cannot be expect to be good, so the same pattern seen in the currency markets on Monday should be seen today as well.

Euro/dollar

Once again, euro/dollar remains weak after sinking to a low for the downtrend. The medium-term bias remains bearish.

Immediate support is at 1.2335. The next level is 1.2140. Distant support is now at 1.1980.

Above 1.2565, resistance is seen at 1.2685. The next level is at 1.3040. Only a break above 1.3260 would signal a sustained recovery of euro/dollar.

Oscillators are bearish.

NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen remained under pressure on Monday after collapsing to a ten-year low on Friday.  The medium-term outlook remains bearish.

Good support is still in place at 92.25.  The next level is Friday’s low of 90.94.

Immediate resistance is at 93.70. The next level is 95.40. Above 96.60, resistance is perched at 98.30.

Oscillators are falling.

NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Sterling/dollar

Sterling/dollar remains soft after nailing a six-year low on Friday.  My model remains short.  The downside is still favored, as the medium-term outlook remains bearish.

Immediate support is at 1.5420. The next level is at 1.5269. Distant support is at 1.4865.

Initial resistance is at 1.5075. The next level is 1.6040. Distant resistance looms at 1.6285.

Oscillators are falling.

NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss fell on Monday after surging to a one-year high on Friday. My model went promptly short below 1.1591.  It should edge higher soon. The medium-term risk remains on the upside.

Immediate support is still seen at 1.1520 and 1.1485.  The next level is 1.1410. Distant support comes at 1.1205.

Initial resistance is at 1.1600. The next level is 1.1767. This is followed by the area between 1.1867 and 1.1873.

Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

 28-10-2008 Forex News Forex Commentary October 28

Forex Rates Today Daily Market Commentary

Rumors of a possible default by Russia or of collapse of big Japanese, US or European institutional investors triggered an explosive rally if the dollar the European currencies and an aggressive slide against the yen on Friday. The markets relaxed a little later in the day, but panic is driving the markets and liquidity continues to suffer. Expect more of the same and the market is expecting concerted rate cuts as early as today. The US economic agenda will open on Monday with the release of the New Home Sales report for September – it’s hard to expect anything positive here.

Euro/dollar

Euro/dollar remains weak after falling on Friday to a two-year low. The medium-term bias remains bearish.

Immediate support is between 1.2490 and 1.2500. Distant support is at 1.2375.

Above 1.2730, resistance is seen at 1.2935. Only a break above 1.3260 would signal a sustained recovery of euro/dollar.

Oscillators are bearish.

NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen collapsed to a ten-year low in wild trading on Friday amid rumors of sovereign default.  The medium-term outlook remains bearish even after the pair already reached the target of a head-and-shoulders formation.

Good support is at 92.25.  The next level is Friday’s low of 90.94.

Immediate resistance is at 95.75. Above 98.13, resistance looms at 100.50.

Oscillators are falling.

NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Sterling/dollar

Sterling/dollar plunged further to a six-year low and my model remains short.  The downside is still favored, as the medium-term outlook remains bearish.

Immediate support is at 1.5590. The next level is at 1.5269.

Initial resistance is at 1.6040. Distant resistance looms at 1.6285.

Oscillators are falling.

NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss reversed early losses and surged to a one-year high. My model remains long.  The medium-term risk remains on the upside.

Initial resistance is at 1.1767. The next level is between 1.1867 and 1.1873.

Immediate support is still seen between 1.1585 and 1.1595.  The next level is 1.1410. Distant support comes at 1.1205.

Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
27-10-2008 Forex News Forex Commentary October 27

Forex Rates Today Daily Market Commentary

Once again, the dollar rallied further on Thursday versus the European currencies and the Canadian dollar while falling sharply against the yen. The moves are even more overdone, but hold on to them until you have proof of a pause.
Euro/dollar

The euro/dollar fell to a new low for the strong downtrend on speculation the global credit crisis is spreading through the Eurozone. My model remains short. A late attempt to recover was reversed in the Far East. The medium-term outlook remains bearish

Immediate support remains at 1.2705. Below 1.2580, support is now seen at 1.2505.

Initial resistance is at 1.2830. This is followed by 1.2980. Distant resistance looms at 1.3060.

Oscillators are bearish.

NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen sank further to a seven-month low on Thursday and reached the target of a head and shoulders. My model remains short.  The medium-term outlook remains bearish.

Below 95.95, support now comes at 95.50 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 95.00 and 96.00. Next support is at 94.72.

Resistance moved further down to 97.30 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 96.80 and 97.80. This is followed by 98.25 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 97.75 and 98.75.

Oscillators are falling.

NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Sterling/dollar

Sterling/dollar plunged further to a new five-year low and my model remains short.  The downside is still favored, as the medium-term outlook remains bearish.

Below 1.6038, support is now seen at 1.5815. Distant support is at 1.5630.

Initial resistance is at 1.6230. The next resistance follows at 1.6287. Distant resistance is now pegged at 1.6470.

Oscillators are falling.

NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss surged to a new high for the uptrend and my model remains long.  The medium-term risk remains on the upside.

Initial resistance is at 1.1755. The next level is at 1.1873.

Immediate support is still seen at 1.1595.  The next level is 1.1410. Distant support comes at 1.1205.

Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

24-10-2008 Forex News Forex Commentary October 24

Forex Rates Today Daily Market Commentary

As expected, the dollar rallied further on Wednesday, surging again versus the European currencies and the Canadian dollar and fall against the yen. The moves are overdone, but stay with them until you have proof of a pause.
Euro/dollar

The euro/dollar plunged to a new low for the strong downtrend and my model remains short. The medium-term outlook remains bearish

Immediate support is at 1.2705. Below 1.2580, support is now seen at 1.2505.

Initial resistance moved further down to 1.2830. This is followed by 1.2980. Distant resistance looms at 1.3060.

Oscillators are bearish.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen collapsed to a seven-month low on Wednesday and my model remains short.  The medium-term outlook remains bearish.

Support now comes at 97.30 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 96.80 and 97.80.

Resistance now moved down to 98.25 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 97.75 and 98.75. This is followed by 99.25 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 98.75 and 99.75.

Oscillators are falling.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Sterling/dollar

Sterling/dollar sank further to a new five-year low and my model remains short.  The downside is still favored, as the medium-term outlook remains bearish.

Immediate support is now seen at 1.6070. The next level is 1.5850.  Distant support is at 1.5630.

Initial resistance is at 1.6345. The next resistance follows at 1.6540. Distant resistance is now pegged at 1.6790.

Oscillators are falling.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss climbed up to a new high for the uptrend and my model remains long.  The medium-term risk remains on the upside.

Initial resistance remains at 1.1710. The next levels are 1.1755 and 1.1873.

Immediate support is still seen at 1.1595.  The next level is 1.1410. Distant support comes at 1.1205.

Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

23-10-2008 Forex News Forex Commentary October 23

Forex Rates Today Daily Market Commentary

The dollar more than padded its gains today, as it exploded higher versus the European currencies and the Canadian dollar and fell against the yen. Cable led the European currencies lower following a very weak U.K. manufacturing confidence report. Yen crosses lead the way and there is little reason to expect a change today.
Euro/dollar

The euro/dollar collapsed to an over 1 ½-year low and my model remains short as the pair managed to break out of a triangle. The medium-term outlook remains bearish

Immediate support is at 1.2940. Below 1.2805, support is now seen at 1.2580.

Initial resistance moved down to 1.3060.  The next level is 1.3230. This is followed by 1.3320 and 1.3375.

Oscillators are bearish.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen sank sharply enough to turn my model short.  It barely remains in a triangle. While choppy trading will persists, the initial bias is mildly up – if the triangle bottom holds. The medium-term outlook remains bearish.

Immediate support comes at 100.25 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 99.75 and 100.75.  This is followed by 99.25 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 98.75 and 99.75.

Resistance now moved down to 101.25 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 100.75 and 101.75.   The next level is 100.25 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 99.75 and 100.75.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Sterling/dollar

Sterling/dollar sank to a five-year low and my model remains short.  The downside is still favored, as the medium-term outlook remains bearish.

Immediate support is now seen at 1.6450. The next level is 1.6285.  Distant support is at 1.6040.

Initial resistance is at 1.6650. The next resistance levels follow at 1.6790 and 1.6925. Distant resistance is at 1.7105.

Oscillators are falling.

NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss rallied to a new high for the uptrend and my model remains long.  The medium-term risk remains on the upside.

Initial resistance is at 1.1592. The next levels are 1.1650 and 1.1755.

Immediate support is still seen at 1.1475.  The next level is 1.1325. Below 1.1240, support remains at 1.1055.

Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
22-10-2008 Forex News Forex Commentary October 22