Forex Survivor Articles - The Neglected Essentials

GBPUSD Free Mandatory Path Trade of 15 pips

noreply@blogger.com (Anthony Samaha) — Sat, 16 Jun 2007 06:09:00 -0700

June 15 - 22 Spot Trade:

Currency: GBPUSD
Trade Objective: Bouncing on a Stop Loss hit.
Chart: Daily
Trade volatility: medium to high
Trade duration once triggered: min 10mn, max 4 days.
Spread Consideration: Set the trade as it is below in its exact form
Updates: Please follow its updates by visiting http://www.forexsurvivor.com/ on NonySqueakWire headlines. In case we are stuck with that trade, where probability is 3%, please email support@forexsurvivor.com (members or readers) for immediate update.
Trade the signal that triggers first, where the second signal becomes nullified.

SHORT 19591 Target 15 Pips Exact @ 19576
OR
LONG 19796 Target 15 Pips Exact @ 19811
Enjoy Pound trade.

Non Forex Premise: Crude oil, Gold, & Dow.

noreply@blogger.com (Anthony Samaha) — Mon, 21 May 2007 05:55:00 -0700

CAD strength continues & AUD dip for bulls

Market agitated ferociously on Friday with China events, and we are on the wonder whether China means Japan – when you visit China, make sure you have Yen monies. PBOC had a decision today, and yen exchanges (not CNY) flourished to route a spiking U behaviour when US welcomed the opening hours. With such a routing, it is worth studying our Yen Closing Trades (table bottom) to scrutinize how deficient or defiant our signals are when market faces high volatility ( and pass a visit as well next week to note the yen closing trades for the complete picture). We end up with twelve pips trading ¥ pairs, and with our open ¥ positions, we expect the charting pips to over-stretch to at least 3 figures all together next week.

Petroleum worldwide is manoeuvring a strong demand rebound than expected as OPEC supplies are reduced and global petroleum inventories are shifting to the ‘oversold’ zone in the coming months when seasonal demand rallies again. As such, Oil target has been jotted down on the 77$/barrel for this quarter. Being on the sidelines is a good strategy till that correction runs its course, then we will be looking with the Canadian at the buying level that will generate a double digit return for them to scale a good measurement in its books. Such level should be capitulating around the $60.

Gold is heading towards 5/6 weeks of long liquidation cycle, reflecting a firmer US dollar and benign inflation. ForexSurvivor target near term is $585 and has been set since 05 April - you may check that newsletter date as the strategy since then has no changes.

Equities are running towards the sky, and as soon as the news hints for a massive appalling reaction among NASDAQ, Dax, S&P, and Dow, make sure you are online triggering a ‘short’ click on the one that would show a fleeting impact. It will follow within hour on a slow motion, showing a sign of ‘why I should follow the others.’ In the end, either they are all on the long side or on the short side. I always prefer the Dow (although it is the first one that prices a quick reversal) in such a theme where 200/300 pips are squirrelly collected. A reminiscent disadvantage of such theme is that you may need to wait month(s) for this to happen.

Signal Epitome
Golden performer this week was GOLD with ForexSurvivor Signals followed by the Pound and its allies - mainly GBPAUD; while Yen was still poorly performing and might be due to Reversal tactics where squeezing the price towards the best of the bottom was an approach, followed by eursgd that bulldozed a minor spread loss.

Oldies Kryptonite:

ü EURJPY angled a new yearly top for a third week. Strong Divergence is not supporting the uptrend. Allow final up tick before a vicious tumbling. This week: YEN cross tested the top again, and it is proving that there is no further interest in having a long euro. The focus remains towards a vicious tumble where weekly pinnacle is a fulcrum that should spark an even greater decline back to 15800.

ü USDCAD has been in major downtrend, and it is incomplete. Allow some major choppy trades ahead of 11220. Target is heading towards 10700 the least, and to conclude in the long run towards 1.0000. Will usdcad applies the trading credence ‘Sell in May & Leave?’ This week: CAD strength continues and the move adopted a small retracement as was calculated. Another retracement shall be adopted, and might be higher than the previous one slightly.

ü AUDUSD whopping New Jobs Data previous week spurred AUD higher, and puts a rate rise back on the call by June/July. Any setback should not keep the AUD from a solid demand targeting 8500 by then. This week: AUD achieved a sit-back, and with some confirmation that bottom is in place, target is in the offing.

Anthony Samaha
Trading Engineer

*** The Potential Flows of Trading Information constitute my judgment and are not trading recommendations. ***

Eurjpy Crested & 15700 Near Term Target; Euraud Edifice Is Establishing Not A Nadir Yet.

noreply@blogger.com (Anthony Samaha) — Sat, 12 May 2007 23:36:00 -0700

The week started almost with no major exchanges distances between supports and resistances, and constraints in risk-reward ratio did not allow exploitation for entering trades with major pips allocation. As such, forex average closing trades were ±20 pips this week. Not that satisfactory, and even with those major events this week market was preoccupied with dullness till Thursday.

As strange as it may sound, this is the first week in 2007 where ForexSurvivor shares out so many signals with very few allocated pips, not mentioning repeating some signals twice or more.

CRUDE OIL was the best performer this week with ForexSurvivor Signals followed by commodities (aud or nzd); while Yen was poorly performing and might be due to Reversal tactics where squeezing the price towards the best of the bottom was an approach.

Pecuniary resources was the Kiwi trade which was strategically set as a counter trend signal since April 10, and target achieved 30 days later. Reminder of the ‘completed’ signal: Short nzdusd @ 7330 in an uptrend, targeting 7275.

Last week, prepared sundries emphasized the writing-off the top of the Aussie, and AUD stratagem data charted gimmickry within rollercoaster behaviour to annul the concept of no top formation. Of help, was the whopping New Jobs Data that spurs AUD higher, and puts a rate rise back on the call by June/July. Any setback should not keep the AUD from a solid demand targeting 8500 by then.

Oldies Kryptonite:

Only EURJPY angled a new yearly top, while other crosses remained below yearly high for a second week. Monthly May Candle’ tail is being on the built and the near term proviso is to trade below today’s closing week. Strong Divergence is not supporting the uptrend. Allow final up tick before a vicious tumbling.

This week: Finally, after the Golden Week was over, Asian currencies adopted the awaited bullish Yen retracement momentum.

USDCAD has been in major downtrend, and it is incomplete. Allow some major choppy trades ahead of 11220. Target is heading towards 10700 the least, and to conclude in the long run towards 1.0000. Will usdcad applies the trading credence ‘Sell in May & Leave?’

This week: CAD strength continues and the move is adopting a small retracement for further strength.

NFP Lousy momentum snorted the rally & not to unchartered territories

noreply@blogger.com (Anthony Samaha) — Sun, 6 May 2007 23:55:00 -0700

NFP week has become very tedious and unprofitable. As a daily trader, we wait for the whole week to have the NFP released and all we get a snorting rally, not surpassing 50 pips.

Media, reports, news, and many others are exaggerating in presenting NFP for the whole week and it is becoming an exasperation module to lessen trades for a whole week just to hear in the end the usual comments: real figure and the ‘revised’ never matches.

That weekly ‘litmus test’ has no more the same trading behaviour as the old years where at least twitchy 150/300 pips were used to spike within hours. We know that G7 decided to annul spikes on launching figures, but if they want us to trade solely on Interest rate, let us know so we can pack our materials and stay comfortably at home.

Pricking that NFP lousy balloon so let my newsletter survive a reliable commentary, I like to shift my writing to the CAD analysis.

USDCAD has been in major downtrend, and it is incomplete. Allow some major choppy trades ahead of 11220 where you should add to your bearish signal or open a nice short signal as CAD strength has not terminated its BOC weekly release. Target is heading towards 10700 the least, and to conclude in the long run towards 1.0000. Will usdcad applies the trading credence ‘Sell in May & Leave?’ Unfortunately, we don’t leave as we are daily traders of so many securities around. On the other part, eurcad has traded well towards my target which has been set for the long term at 14930.

Funny is why we don’t have a credence for the ‘bullish’ market?

Anthony Samaha
Trading Engineer

*** The Potential Flows of Trading Information constitute my judgment and are not trading recommendations. ***

Yen & Equities Invincibility: No Room 4 Complacency!?

noreply@blogger.com (Anthony Samaha) — Mon, 30 Apr 2007 01:10:00 -0700

Yen Japanese Golden Week is usually famous by illiquidity behaviour and low volume and as such there is no respect for your supports or resistances, and closing week/month. Although the weekly close is low, and expectation to be the same during the end of April, a scary reversal move is of no escape. Coinciding with ‘end of month’ on Monday and closing books, such behaviour should lead to a vicious trend reversal in Yen & Equities, most probably next week.

No change in my view regarding such vicious reversal, and only few weird triggering are needed.
Last, Yen carry trades are exhausted, and the abated daily movements are jousted with their trend lines.

Long Term Yen crosses provisions: eurjpy, gbpjpy, nzdjpy, audjpy, & sgdjpy long term downtrend of almost 2 decades has been halted as of first quarter of 2007. The world is changing and yen can no longer be considered a ‘strong’ currency for the next 5 to 10 years. We will see levels like 350 in gbpjpy, 2.000 in eurjpy, 1.5 in dollar yen, etc… (This small provision has nothing to do with daily.weekly. trades). As for now, I am looking for eurjpy to meet 15000, even lower.

As for Equities, the same warning is implied regarding S&P, Dax, Dow, & NASDAQ. The formation of the top is a yearly one and has almost concluded. We start looking for the bottom to exist this year.

Gold As described on my newsletter dated 05 April, <>

Gold indeed formed a ‘false break candle bars from 16 April and for 08 days before it tumbled to 67285 as of this time of writing. Illustration of false break is seen on drawing a trendline from top 73025 dated 2006/05/12 to the top of 68880 dated 2007/02/28. Weekly close was below that formidable trendline supporting my view of 585 in the next 20 days.

*** What is not seen however is how on 05 April 2007 a false break was calculated ahead of ‘false break formation debut’ on 16 April that lasted the 08 days.

Oldies Kryptonite:

- Bi-Monthly free Trade of 55 pips: Mission Completed.

Reminder of the trade: Long 24185 targeting 24240

- ForexSurvivor EURCAD Long Term Trade is approaching its target at 14930. This Week, eurcad lowered to 15250, and at 15000 we are getting out of our long term trade. It pays being patient as its interest rate is favouring the trade. This week: No Change in View – we are on hold.

ü Yen is in the last phase of its correction. Sharply resumption of its upward trend is expected within the next 3 days. This week: Only EURJPY angled a new yearly top, while other crosses remained below yearly high, and the unwinding of long yen is not muted during the Golden Week of Japan.

Anthony Samaha
Trading Engineer

Psychological Pound Trading Week & Schizo weeks ahead

noreply@blogger.com (Anthony Samaha) — Sun, 22 Apr 2007 12:58:00 -0700

Fractural Long Term Note: We would espy psychological levels in all majors in the near foreseeable future, and we would scrutinize levels not seen not in 5 or 10, but at least 15/20 years and above. Euro has started to form a wedge that will have a potential sharp decline, and the formation is only at the beginning. Once formation is complete and wedge base is broken, we will trade the resistance of that wedge for our long term target at 110, and we will add to the position on a new yearly high if made by 177 pips exact. For demonstrability, my wedge formation is not of course on the 5 min charts.

Notwithstanding persistent warnings that pound is ratcheting up towards the psycho level at 2.000 that was

- ForexSurvivor target since January 2007 (see the reminder text below), and that
- Our entries levels would more be on the Long hits and very few on the Short hits

I was surprised to receive plenty of recommendations on how to ‘Survive’ Short sterling around 197/198?

Click here to find ForexSurvivor GBPUSD trade since January 2007 achieving 801 pips. The lowest level seen among my trades signal is 19218 and the highest is 20090, which is equal to 872 pips. Mmm… GBPUSD had been convincingly ForexSurvivor friend along its trend so far this year.

Revising the above trades myself, I am swimmingly surprised that none bulldozed the thirty to fifty scales ForexSurvivor average loss per signal. You may note as well that only Short signals required ‘surviving’ signal tactic.

Since we have approached the pound psycho level, I would re-pass briefly the Pound Letter that was launched on January 2007, so you may reconsider a better strategy for your short trades.

European securities’ facing new high pricing measures as Presidential Election is approaching

noreply@blogger.com (Anthony Samaha) — Sun, 15 Apr 2007 01:20:00 -0700

MAJORS MAJORING NEW HIGHS (LOWS)

Euro running new yearly highs, so Pound should; the latter is on the way to the psycho level of 2.000, and so Dollar should (new Low). But when? Why the market always reaches psychological levels when liquidity is low or volume is low? Does it mean then that the market is pricing levels that are not correlated with fundamentals issues? Very true so.

Market depleted euro long term downtrend of almost 12 years, and the weekly close today is pivotal. Either 330 pips up or down, are the next short term trend target.

I would prefer the short trend to gain access to 13700 at least so the *trap* would be filled enormously with bulls, where media buzz accelerates the target to 160 – France near term election will add the pressure on new highs. ForexSurvivor Euro Long Term Target is 110, and such momentum gains a debut movement after France election. My target preference is reachable by all means.

Stay tuned with our news because we will pass a splashing hint in one of our Newsletter between April & March as to when Our Long Term EURO trend takes effect towards 110.

Equities behaviour is not compelling my expectations. They have the run towards new yearly highs, where some have already did like DAX, and awaiting S&P, so to correct the high of the sudden false disarrays that took place last month. Recall: Dow tumbled as it screened falsely last month; nice evasion to present to traders.

*** Vicious equities flooring is to be screened this month targeting at least MA200 on daily charts.

Oldies Kryptonite:

ForexSurvivor EURCAD Long Term Trade is approaching its target at 14930. However Cad positions on the screens is on consolidation phase after years of trending. Lulling around is the nickname for the year, few ups, and few downs…Needless to say, the market lulls when security pricing endorses the consolidation angle. It is the safest currency that can play well the technical indicator on your 5 mn chart. Prerequisite: check oil trend always, and ForexSurvivor bid is fix for summer season at least.

For traders who are concerned with eurjpy positions, I closed the long signal portfolio that I hold it as safe haven & awaiting the chute towards 15800 the least.

Anthony Samaha

Trading Engineer
*** The Potential Flows of Trading Information constitute my judgment and are not trading recommendations. ***

Please Click Here to find Our Weekly Closed Trades of 527 pips.

G7 & Low Liquidity Trading for Easter.

noreply@blogger.com (Anthony Samaha) — Thu, 5 Apr 2007 13:55:00 -0700

Briefly, and before Easter Holiday, I have the inclination to present my open securities in very short and solid studies.

G7 speculation last time has triggered Yen Strength. G7 this time has not the same agendum, and till then Yen Rollercoaster Craze is a ride of no forget.
AUD is expected to retrace 150 pips the least.
EURCHF – Topped, OB again on monthly charts, and a buy dip is a nice idea for a ‘camping trip’ towards 1.7
EURNZD striving its year lows and momentum is extremely bearish. 18823 is in the offing.
Dax, has approached its yearly high, and from here with some help of other equities, vicious tumble is to be gauged by mid April, maybe further than the mid a bit.
Gold is in nice daily pennant triangle. That does not mean sell top/ buy dips. Market does not let you a joy of a nice straight drawing, so expect false breaks from either side. Affording false breaks if any, 585 is of no escape.

Oldies Kryptonite:

Oil & its correction: In my previous Newsletter, I entangled short details about Oil and my Political View. Specifically I have mentioned that “Our long Term trades has translated the tension ahead of time, and correction (short term) is expected after the weekend.” This Week: Indeed Oil Correction took place after the weekend and the situation with Iran calmed down. Had I known that my Oil Correction View will let the situation calm down with Iran, then I should be hoping to be living and trading in an Oil Correction Cycle all the time.

Tread Carefully: The market narrowed its wave to 23900 which should be corrected to 24100.
This Week: GBPCHF screened finally 24100 and ForexSurvivor Long Term GBPCHF trade has been closed enjoying 720 pips.

Click here to find below Weekly Closed Trades of 271.5 pips.

Does Iran benefit when Oil is expensive?

noreply@blogger.com (Anthony Samaha) — Sun, 1 Apr 2007 00:50:00 -0700

Does Iran benefit when Oil is expensive?

Of course it does. And Oil trend is becoming more beneficial to Iran.

What is wrong with Iran and its Nuclear Issue, and how is affecting the market?

Politically speaking, it is a worrying issue, but in reality it is not.

Worrying issues: If there is a decision about having a worldwide war with Iran, we would encounter un-thinkable consequences on crude oil, US, and especially Japan since the latter highly relies on oil. It won’t be an Iraq army-war as much as a well burning-oil effect on all sort of industries. Result: Rapid crashing businesses and number one would be Technology Sector before transportation sector.

Reality: US is not planning to plunge itself with expensive oil damages that might be a good cause of Iran war, at least yet. If the US is ready to bear oil expensive consequences, its margin may be endurable for $100/barrel, which is a near term target anyway.

The consequence of Iran was tested murmuringly this week [Iran fired at a US ship (rumor)] where oil reached $68/barrel, and then the move gave up its test where oil backed to $63 (Thursday). Any serious tension with Iran, expect oil to reach $200/barrel within a rapid move of countable –finger days. Something I consider a ‘suicide’ strategic plan for the US, and no ‘survival’ method to catch that trend in a bearish market.

Our long Term trades has translated the tension ahead of time, and correction (short term) is expected after the weekend.

To finalize, higher oil prices is negative for the dollar (because it is harmful to the US economy) and eurusd target becomes lower than 13700. This is valid as long as oil prices rise much further; it seems such move is foreseeable future raise.

Euro wave between 13200 and 13700 is going to be misconstrued and lot of media trend up buzz will be stubborn towards 160, and since April is the month where long term traders position themselves for summer time, a nice trap is on the built. Remind me when September shows up! Long term EURUSD target is 110 and not 160, and that view will be updated by mid Jun. Confirmation of 110 is when euro starts screening below 13100.

Question for Analysis:
why the US would need the oil price to be expensive?

Asia competitive market has the answer.

Check here to find more about our Weekly Closed Trades of 346 pips.

Free Mandatory Path Trade of 15 pips

noreply@blogger.com (Anthony Samaha) — Wed, 28 Mar 2007 23:26:00 -0700

Free Mandatory Path Trade of 15 pips.

SPOT TRADE

Currency: GBPUSD
Trade Objective: Fibo Correction
Chart: 3 Hr
Trade volatility: High
Trade duration once triggered: min 1 mn, max 3 days.
Spread Consideration: Set the trade as it is below in its exact form
Updates: Please follow its updates by visiting www.forexsurvivor.com on NonySqueakWire headlines. In case we are stuck with that trade, where probability is 2%, please email support@forexsurvivor.com (members or readers) for immediate update.

GBPUSD Mandatory Path:

LONG 19750 OR SHORT 19777 -> Target 15 Pips Exact (19765 or 19762)

Enjoy Pound trade.

Anthony Samaha
Trading Engineer

www.forexsurvivor.com

Commodities Currencies and their Top Superfluous Stubbornness.

noreply@blogger.com (Anthony Samaha) — Mon, 26 Mar 2007 02:40:00 -0700

Commodities currencies week it was. AUD & NZD are stubbornly heading back to tops where the market rejected twice at least. NZD Fibo 0.7135 should be an aggressively sell level, but I am not convinced with this bearish approach yet, especially after visiting back the tops, as 10 year NZD and US rates continues to remain supportive for NZDUSD and is

read more | digg story

Commodities Currencies and their Top Superfluous Stubbornness.

noreply@blogger.com (Anthony Samaha) — Sat, 24 Mar 2007 00:47:00 -0700

Why the market is lost in Commodities Behaviours?

Commodities currencies week it was. AUD & NZD are stubbornly heading back to tops where the market rejected twice at least. NZD Fibo 0.7135 should be an aggressively sell level, but I am not convinced with this bearish approach yet, especially after visiting back the tops, as 10 year NZD and US rates continues to remain supportive for NZDUSD and is preventing the meltdown that I am calling for. AUD consolidation this week at the high implies that a visit towards 8200 is in the offing.

Adrenalin effects on Equities have spurred their ups in a rapid manner. All in all, when DOW screened falsely on the screen and caused manoeuvrings damages to other equities, bold correction is to take place. Thus, equities will keep up trending for now, with slight high afterwards, before a vicious tumble again by mid April the most.

Pound is in exciting mood of ‘chopping,’ and still has few days of trimming between 19777 and 19450, before heading to 2.010. Although commodities currencies (AUD) are to price expensively in the days ahead, GBPAUD is seen to work against commodities will where 5 figures are noted to be formed in an upward channel.

Euro Long term analysis is in the formation of peaking. And peaking does not mean one figure or two. Be careful Long term Clients, lots of frustrations about Euro analysis will take the lead in the days ahead.

Although this week’s FOMC was superfluously dollar supportive, all levels above 13333 are misconstrued, & we will leave in fantasy world if euro pricing reaches 14300.

I still want the dollar to change hand at €13025/60.

Oldies Kryptonite

Tread Carefully: GBPCHF: 24100 should be temporary holding the ups where an avowed exit is intent. The market narrowed its wave to 23900 which should be corrected to 24100. This Week: after reaching low of 23400, the pair levelled up back to 23900, where GBP should still have to exchange hand at 24100 CHF.

Bi-monthly trade – Mission Completed: SHORT 15558 targeting 15503

EURCAD records my target at 15503 and as the currency spread is over 9 pips, position was not closed, and I have no intention to close it manually. As such, trade is still open. This Week: The market triggered the target un-manually as expected, thus achieving 55 pips, and the bi-monthly family trades are growing lucratively.

Anthony Samaha
Trading Engineer

*** The Potential Flows of Trading Information constitute my judgment and are not trading recommendations. ***

ForexSurvivor Provides:

Trial: Trial period for 15 days, 3 currencies.
Less Time PC Trading: No Full Time schedule for trading? Need less time on PC? Check forexsurvivor min 375 pips link.
Weekly Newsletter: Published ONLINE, between Friday & Sunday. Depicts currency performance, forexsurvivor closing trades, and hints on new signal target & free signal on a monthly basis (see below):

Jan, Mar, May, Jul, Sep, Nov between 15 and 20 – Bi-Monthly Free Trade of 55 pips.
Feb, Apr, Jun, Aug, Oct, Dec between 01 and 05 – Free Mandatory Path Trade of 15 pips

Since ForexSurvivor decided to launch free monthly signal in 2006
*** NO FREE SIGNAL HAS GENERATED A CLOSING LOSS***
Trade ForexSurvivor Signal in Real (not Demo)!

Please click here to find Weekly Closed Trades of 274 pips.

Amazing Euro Configuration. Heading to the trap!

noreply@blogger.com (Anthony Samaha) — Sat, 17 Mar 2007 05:33:00 -0700

Why the market is lost in Equities Behaviours?

Simply put, a long Term Trend needs a sudden tumble.

Equities have not tumbled to the utmost yet. All in all, at least 50% Fibo should be reached or support MA200 to hold for few days/week before new low than 2006’s is seen. That is technical. However, fundamentally speaking, there is no better news than the technical. That view just presented is not mine, as you know I trade based on my OCTOPUS formula that comprises neither technical nor fundamental figures. Besides, my target in equities is lower than 2006 low and that mentioned on my December newsletter 2006.

Euro new high move in the last 3 days was pip by pip, and that has a good correlation with the trend in the weeks ahead.

My view for the European and the US market argues well with the technical and fundamental pictures that the media is presenting. US economic growth is about to be picked up again, and as soon as it climbs the ladder, we would note a reinforcement in the dollar. Such dollar (usdjpy) support has a 125 /127 /130 as a consequence, and the euro down-swings towards 116/110.

Amazingly though, & as I usually call my EURCHF trade a ‘turtle,’ that slow motion movement gave me hard time to catch. Who can not catch a turtle? Believe me, I tried, and found out that I needed help of 2 and even 3 ‘Survivors’ to support my turtle trade argument. When I longed it, I had to survive it to reverse, and when I reversed it, I had to survive it to go back to long, and such movement was traded 4 times to accumulate only a lucrative amount of pips equal 14. In the end, it was an enjoyable positive trade, though it was not worth the time and margin. Yet, I am preparing a ‘compensating’ one again in the near term.

Conclusion: Even 1 pip in the market so to be achieved, and / or with a slow currency movement like eurchf / eurgbp (or low volatility), needs a lot of studies and calculations before traded. That is why cautious and well implemented ‘Survivor’ entries are needed. Below are the eurchf trades:

Oldies Kryptonite

Tread Carefully: GBPCHF: 24900 should be screened within less than 7 days. That view has not changed but it would be delayed due to the sell off in equities and FTSE, where we should be waiting for Long Term Traders to reposition themselves (24100 should be temporary holding the ups where an avowed exit is an intent). This Week: The market narrowed its wave to 23900 which should be corrected to 24100.

Euro has not met yet 13025/60 which is a good target. It is on the way, but might chop towards the top first with a new weekly high. This Week: The market marked new high on a basis of one pip at a time, and it is depriving the screen of 13025/60 for the second week. There is no third week.

Bi-monthly free trade of 55 pips Short position triggered. Reminder of the trade:

LONG 15203 targeting 15258, or SHORT 15558 targeting 15503

And the market squeezes again my target between 1 and 10 pips. EURCAD records my target at 15503 and as the currency spread is over 9 pips, position was not closed, and I have no intention to close it manually. As such, trade is still open.

Anthony Samaha

Trading Engineer

*** The Potential Flows of Trading Information constitute my judgment and are not trading recommendations. ***

Easy Concept Links

www.forexsurvivor.com provides:

Trial: Trial period for 15 days, 3 currencies.

Less Time PC Trading: No Full Time schedule for trading? Need less time on PC? Check forexsurvivor min 375 pips link.

Weekly Newsletter: Published ONLINE, between Friday & Sunday. Depicts currency performance, forexsurvivor closing trades, and hints on new signal target & free signal on a monthly basis (see below):

Jan, Mar, May, Jul, Sep, Nov between 15 and 20 – Bi-Monthly Free Trade of 55 pips.
Feb, Apr, Jun, Aug, Oct, Dec between 01 and 05 – Free Mandatory Path Trade of 15 pips

Since ForexSurvivor decided to launch free monthly signal in 2006

*** NO FREE SIGNAL HAS GENERATED A CLOSING LOSS***

Trade ForexSurvivor Signal in Real (not Demo)!

For more detail about our Weekly Closed Trades of 971 pips. Please check our website www.forexsurvivor.com

Bi-Monthly Free Trade of 55 pips. Enjoy EURCAD Trade, & Trade it Live.

noreply@blogger.com (Anthony Samaha) — Fri, 9 Mar 2007 23:43:00 -0800

BI-MONTHLY FREE TRADE of 55 pips

Trade it Live

As illustrated in my last newsletter, once we are done with GBPUSD Mandatory Path Trade of 15 pips, I would signal the next Bi-Monthly free trade of 55 pips. And below is my new signal.

- Currency: EURCAD.
- Trade Objective: Counter-Trend follower if short, or Fibo correction if Long.
- Chart: 4 Hr.
- Trade Volatility: medium to high.
- Trade Duration: min 2 Hr, max 8 days.
- Worse Case Scenario: email support@forexsurvivor.com in case we are stuck

with the trade, where probability is 3.5%.
- Pair Spread consideration: Enter the trade whenever bid or ask screens the

entry level, and set target exactly as per se below.
- Any update to be wired at NonySqueakNews by visiting http://www.forexsurvivor.com/

LONG 15203 targeting 15258, or SHORT 15558 targeting 15503

Numerically speaking, you might wonder why 03 is common between 15203 & 15503.
Enjoy eurcad trade.

Oldies Kryptonite

ü Tread Carefully: GBPCHF: 24900 should be screened within less than 12 days. That view has not changed but it would be delayed due to the sell off in equities and FTSE, where we should be waiting for Long Term Traders to reposition themselves (24100 should be temporary holding the ups where an avowed exit is an intent).

ü Euro has not met yet 13025 which is a good target – shall I blame the sell-off in equities as a delay in meeting 13025/60? It is on the way, but might chop toppily first with a new weekly high.

ü GBPUSD Mandatory Trade of 15 pips went short at 19388 targeting 19373. Mission Completed.
Pound trade Enjoyed.

Anthony Samaha
Trading Engineer

*** The Potential Flows of Trading Information constitute my judgment and are not trading recommendations. ***

The world sold off its equities on Feb 27th 2007. What about YEN ‘comp remise?'

noreply@blogger.com (Anthony Samaha) — Fri, 2 Mar 2007 23:52:00 -0800

The world sold off its equities on Tuesday.
What about YEN ‘comp remise?’

Starting from Chinese equities, fears, that authorities would crack down on stock market speculation or authorities clamping down on illegal stock market activity, have contributed to the large sell off. That vague wiring catalyst was denied the same day.

My fundamental view point: it is hard to attribute the sell off to the above elements. But rather, US inflation is up-trending and it is augmenting concerns about growth; Iran Geopolitical risk has attributed well to the sell off, as despite the shake down of stocks, oil strength remains.

My technical view point: equities have been trending non stop for the past 8 months, and then? Wasn’t time for correction? It is so common in the market when a trend is enduring and lasting for months (believers of OB/OS during the whole period), a sudden counter trend is a ‘comp remise.’

Mixing Both View, the long term fundamentals remain very appealing, and technical retracement is providing new attractive entry points.

Now, the important question remains: would we have the same sell off ‘comp remise’ in USDJPY, EURJPY, and other Yen crosses? Bank of Japan has already announced that it only wishes to raise its interest rate slowly. Consequently, yen will continue its weakness towards 125/127 / even 130, and subsequently BOJ will intervene to support the yen. But When?

The loss in equities this week will need at least 10 days or less to let traders repositioning, and we won’t anticipate substantial dollar downswing but carefully manoeuvring in the near term the dollar is sensitive. Afterwards, when all settle back, dollar will appreciate very fast.

What happened with my last Free Trades?

ü Tread Carefully: GBPCHF: 24900 should be screened within less than 23 days. That view has not changed but it would be delayed due to the sell off in equities and FTSE, where we should be waiting for Long Term Traders to reposition themselves. Euro has not met yet 13025 which is a good target – shall I blame the sell-off in equities as a delay in meeting 13025/60?

ü GBPUSD Mandatory Trade of 15 pips still valid. Triple the position for the Long Trade, and keep the double on the short side.

Trade Reminder: LONG 19750 OR SHORT 19388è Target 15 Pips Exact (19765 or 19373)
Enjoy Pound trade.

Notification: Although this week is the time to launch a new Mandatory Path Trade of 15 pips, I will delay publishing its signal till we finalize with the above GBPUSD trade. Pound has been traded narrowly for the last 2 weeks, and about time to meet one of either signal.

How ForexSurvivor reacted on Tuesday‘s Chinese GAP Day when Equity Sold-off & what bad consequences were resulted?

Let me present first an evidence that was wired on NonySqueakNews

ü [22 Feb] Dax, Ftse, & SMI rallies exhausted for now è clarification: equities rallies were prepared for correction.

Thus, as ForexSurvivor Equity positioning trades, we were Equities-Bearish.

Our S&P.I position is almost on the break eve, but we continue having the position ON HOLD. ForexSurvivor S&P target is lower than 2006 low.

For more information on this weekly news, please visit our website.

Revolutions of 4 Top Secrets why Moving Averages Crossing are not safe for trading

noreply@blogger.com (Anthony Samaha) — Tue, 12 Dec 2006 23:34:00 -0800

Hypothesis that most traders use:

MA 100, MA 20, MA36 using charting less or equal 4 hours.
When MA20 crosses below MA36, traders sell and stop loss is above MA100
When MA20 crosses above MA36, traders buy and stop loss is below MA100

ForexSurvivor.com signals use no moving average crossing for the below reasons:

When the market is in consolidation phase, the 3 moving average turn to be one line. Traders can’t trade. The market consolidates most of its time, and consolidation is painful for those moving averages. Such phase may exist for 3 days and time is running.

Does any one know when the market trends? Indicators show you that the market is trending today, by letting MA20 crosses below MA36, where traders go short and stop loss above MA100, where suddenly ‘fundamental’ news reverse the market, and the next day you would observe that you need to reverse your trade. You go long, and what happen next? The market consolidates, thus step i. covers the topic again. Momentum lost and you close the trade in loss or breakeven because there is no follow through.
Moving average crossing once show a short or long signal, traders enter the market and set an unmovable stop loss. How many times that market hunts that stop loss and then return to its previous course? Market needs looser to survive and the more stop losses traders set the healthier the market becomes, & the quicker the trading account fades. Forexsurvivor use no stop losses in its SIGNAL daily trades, but rather survive its entry level by adding to its positions, based on concrete analysis that have nothing to do with any sort of indicators.

And now let us suppose your crossing MA are at their best working, so where those fundamentals analysis go? Does ECB, BOE, BOC, or BOJ think of those MA crosses? So, since traders are not translating fundamentals onto moving averages, that alone means that moving average is in need of further improvements. And since ForexSurvivor.com knows that those crosses drag traders onto losses trades, it has established a RECOMMENDATION site for those BAD trades to help them survive their trades to a minimum loss without being emotional affected to their trades.

FREE Signals & Newsletter: ForexSurvivor.com provides Bi-monthly free solid trade of 55 pips between 15 and 20 each 2 months (Jan, Mar, May, Jul, Sep, and Nov), and Mandatory Path free trade of 15 pips between 01 and 05 each 2 other months (Feb, Apr, Jun, Aug, Oct, Dec). Also, you may ask for forexsurvivor weekly free Newsletter.

Anthony Samaha
Trading Engineer
www.forexsurvivor.com

EURO SUMMER STOP LOSSES (12450) ARE IN THE TARGET

noreply@blogger.com (Anthony Samaha) — Sat, 28 Oct 2006 04:12:00 -0700

EURO SUMMER STOP LOSSES (12450) ARE IN THE TARGET

€ There will be no major trend in EURUSD before summer stop losses are taken. Market needs them to survive a narrow, none trending, routing pair.

On Monday, I wired that those stop losses to be taken within 24 hr, but when the mass market hits the records, followers simply follow not.

What happened instead, the pair is correcting the Opening of the NFP. So will next wave shift to those stops? 12744 will narrate the next wave.

AUDNZD a month ago the market was looking to hit the ceiling @ 12300. Reversal took us as low as 11200 where 200average hold it well.

After RBNZ stealth movement October 25, the market is running well away from bears. The bull is in control at least the next 48 trading hours. Gap is filled (11670) and a close above, nullify the bears from trading.

Slow stochastic shaping up towards O/B, indicating continuity in trend.

ForexSurvivor trades any instrument in the market from forex to futures, equities, commodities, and Oil. We are always in the market, fearless of any trend or countertrend.

You loose nothing in giving us a try since your Money is Back-Guaranteed as long as we don’t generate profit of at least 600$/month, running a 100k entry trade.

Please note that I allow max EIGHT clients per month. I don’t favor mass traders following me.

FOREXSURVIVOR.COM: DEVIANT DOLLAR ANALYSIS

noreply@blogger.com (Anthony Samaha) — Sat, 21 Oct 2006 01:18:00 -0700

FOREXSURVIVOR.COM: DEVIANT DOLLAR ANALYSIS

WHY NONY TARGETS EURO 11600 & USDJPY 12700

¥ There is nothing wrong anymore in seeing YEN spooking the weakness.

Future forex targets will be deviated from the market thinking. Analysis of the whole basket, and in a simple method, I could defend my analysis without paying attention to

ü Supports / resistances
ü High / low / closing
ü Interest rates
ü Banking decisions and their long term briefs when traders look for short terms

Starting with the yen basket, it appears that the market has no care for overbought / oversold levels and that may drag for more months, and momentum is weird.

Yen Crosses has reached new levels and would price more weaknesses till year end. The query is why USDJPY is not following to new Highs?

TIME is the major concern. USDJPY will reach at least 12700 by year end because EURJPY/GBPJPY/NZDJPY/AUDJPY all screen highs not seen for decade.

So USDJPY will follow a screen decade to new high, ABSOLUTELY. Traders, please, pay attention to the buzz headlines, they will help the USDJPY fascinating to new lows while the fact USDJPY will form the ladder towards 12700 the least.

€ As a matter of fact, since USDJPY prerequisites determine the future target @ 12700, then euro is not going to see 13000 but rather at least 11600 if not 11200, and that would be waved hectically.

Main short term signals would be provided by passing www.forexsurvivor.com a visit.

FX/Equities/Commodities News Signal ahead of the market

noreply@blogger.com (Anthony Samaha) — Fri, 20 Oct 2006 03:50:00 -0700

FX/Equities/Commodities News Signal ahead of the market

A Prerequisite for every Trader.

As a News Tracker, you may relief your fx/equities/commodities trades through checking NonySqueak News on each session.

On 25 Sep S&P500 news was wired as:

[25 SEP] S&P is not for a bearish trend yet, and soon to take the starting fresh short cycle for at least 4 months. [28 SEP] Global Equities are Rallying.

Comment: S&P Rallied the next day from 1313 up-to-date at 1370.

On 27 Sep NZDUSD news was wired as:

[27 SEP] NZD - Topped for the next 20 days. Tunnel Correction.

Comment: from the day the news was launched, NZDUSD did not surpass the top of the 27 SEP for exact 20 days, and retraced almost 170 pips.

Reality Does Not Tell That Real Dollar Trendline Broken - MARKET SAYS IT DID

noreply@blogger.com (Anthony Samaha) — Fri, 13 Oct 2006 02:02:00 -0700

Reality Does Not Tell That Real Dollar Trendline Broken - MARKET SAYS IT DID

Market was pretty busy this week calculating the trendline of the dollar vs. majors, and they captured their confirmation along with fundamentals which did not prove right to the figures.

USDCAD, USDJPY, USDCHF broke their long term weekly upper trendline, but the REAL DOLLAR WEEKLY TRENDLINE is not broken yet.

Will the market heads for a FALSE BREAK trap? It did already. On my “NonySqueak News” I posted the followings~ [11OCT] USD Bears turned onto Sheep (passive & fearful followers of trends). Volatility returning to the fx-scene? If so, euro gains momentum to the downside -11600, USDJPY screens 12700 & USDCAD 12400 before steaming is off.

Suggesting as analysis: allow the market few weeks of chopping trades.

Ichi resistance reads 8801 & conjuncts with the downtrend line; Momentum above zero suggests heading towards the resistance line in the days ahead. However, next week data are not that supportive to the dollar. As such, I expect 8800…8450 to keep the range narrowing further.

To end, European still interested in longs but below 12450 where summer stops are to be triggered.

ForexSurvivor next move would be through USDCAD, expecting allocation 400 pips between bull and bear signals, in this month. To find out how, you may pass www.forexsurvivor.com a visit.

Have a nice trading (Next) week

noreply@blogger.com (Anthony Samaha) — Tue, 10 Oct 2006 02:30:00 -0700

GBPUSD – Who says UK will not devalue to 18312 first then nose-dive 1.8112?

ForexSurvivor Bearish Divergence of GBPUSD is getting some early messages of the upside beginning to run out of steam & now looking to decline for the next 10 weeks. However, following that we can expect the upside (19275/19343) to come under renewed pressure. It is interesting that ForexSurvivor closing juncture has been broken and now retested, where this tends to confirm the conjecture that there is beginning to be some downward pressure beginning to build up.

Rallying to the expected upside implies an expanded correction, while breaching 18532 leads to 18112. By all means 18312 will be screened shortly either from 19275/19375, or from below 18532.

Traders Chart Analysis: Looking at the chart, it is very easy to depict trend lines, and find momentum that drags on premature determination trend. But the question which remained unsolved throughout trading epoch, why such charts do not hold more than 2 or 3 days?

Comparing the feasibility of GBPUSD chart, noting momentum needs to break up the downing trend line, so to allow UK depreciation. Already, price broke down the upward trend, and momentum is below zero, suggesting a short-term low is initiated!

Traders do like such analysis coz they want to believe that they are holding on something concrete. Asking themselves, are we seeing a Bearish Divergence?

Typically bearish divergence (price will make a new high, but RSI makes a lower high) & is marked by a rising trend line above the price action and a falling trend line on the RSI indicator.

The above chart is well familiar by every trader, so does the market allow such mass winners? Fundamentals will provide the answer, but it would be always either priced in or to be priced in after 2/3 weeks.

What might happen with traders?

If the market levels to the upward trendline, traders sell with a stop loss above the triangle top.

If the market doesn’t level to the upward trendline and broke the (ichi) support line, traders rush to sell using stop loss above upward trendline. What happens is that the market doesn’t depreciate when traders psycho spur the response, so price rebounds targeting stop loss.

Traders observe the Bearish Divergence, so they hold their shorts that start with below the upper trendline, and they add to it once top upward trendline is priced. So they expand their stop losses range above that top. The market well aware of such trading, and only to find out that breaking and closing above the top triangle is created. Positions are closed, after few days of narrow consolidation, reports show on with a FALSE BREAK image. By then, traders are cursing their trades and wishing only a say “I wish”.

*** The whole above explanations show GBPUSD as bearish routing, but in the next 2 weeks, ForexSurvivor >signals are to be issued as Bullish. To know more about the GBPUSD routing in the next 2 weeks, you may pass www.forexsurvivor.com a visit.

noreply@blogger.com (Anthony Samaha) — Tue, 10 Oct 2006 02:29:00 -0700

If the market levels to the upward trendline, traders sell with a stop loss above the triangle top.

If the market doesn’t level to the upward trendline and broke the (ichi) support line, traders rush to sell using stop loss above upward trendline. What happens is that the market doesn’t depreciate when traders psycho spur the response, so price rebounds targeting stop loss.

Traders observe the Bearish Divergence, so they hold their shorts that start with below the upper trendline, and they add to it once top upward trendline is priced. So they expand their stop losses range above that top. The market well aware of such trading, and only to find out that breaking and closing above the top triangle is created. Positions are closed, after few days of narrow consolidation, reports show on with a FALSE BREAK image. By then, traders are cursing their trades and wishing only a say “I wish”.

noreply@blogger.com (Anthony Samaha) — Mon, 2 Oct 2006 00:57:00 -0700

EURUSD TRADING HAS BEEN CONFINED TO A NARROW BAND

The boundary of the European is about to expand to 17 nations while its main security is just walling between 12900 and 12700 since June 2006, and up to date (Sep 2006).

Such squeezing market is at high risk as we are approaching the end of the year where books squaring and thin markets are likely to exacerbate moves.

Traders may have been given up such currency with that confined levels within those 4 months, and the more this is valid, the more the likelihood a big move is on the run in Q4.

This is the type of the trade that will have a non-stop trending routing till mid January 2007. Beware not falling in the concept false breakout, as there won’t be any. Narrow stop-losses will eat well the trading accounts, as movements will be tiny & slow pace. Your trade will run well if you are positive by 12 November.

Concrete www.forexsurvivor.com 2000 pips for Q4

Short term EURUSD trading signal analysis is available on joining www.forexsurvivor.com with a solid expectation of no less than 2000 pips in 4 months, starting 02 October 2006, using ForexSurvivor instrumentals signals.

noreply@blogger.com (Anthony Samaha) — Thu, 28 Sep 2006 06:11:00 -0700

August & September run an out performers champion of buying EURJPY and selling AUDNZD.

Expectation of positive risk appetite in a bullish tunnel for carry trades remained in September, and market is positioned in the third week of September at extremes, so of note, will FX carry Trades Turn into caveats themes Trades in the end of this month?

Nothing seems going the wrong way if EURJPY is at Extreme

The yen has failed to appreciate in line with Japan’s economic recovery. For foreign investors, the Yen remains an attractive funding currency for buying euros, especially since BOJ tightens policy on a quarterly basis. At the same time, concerns about slowing global growth have encouraged equity managers to remain under-weight Japanese equities.

Technique of EURJPY

Model funds had added to their long EURJPY positions despite Yen-Bullish Fundamentals.

FOREXSURVIVORsee that these funds will hit stop-losses at 14300. Apart, a correction down to this level would trigger a massive liquidation of EURJPY longs.

As FOREXSURVIVORequation lays the concept of the EURJPY routing, there is no expectation that EURJPY will visit lower level than 14500 that soon, and apparently the 14300 level to be breached early next year. What solicits the equation, persistent buying EURJPY by Japanese Investors.

AUDNZD shorts on the liquidation phase

FOREXSURVIVOR targets AUDNZD @ 12300 since mid September, and positioned long since then.

The market overestimated the probability of RBNZ rate hike in January 2007, and underestimated the chances of an RBA rate hike on 1 Nov.

August & September run an out performers champion of buying EURJPY and selling AUDNZD.

Expectation of positive risk appetite in a bullish tunnel for carry trades remained in September, and market is positioned in the third week of September at extremes, so of note, will FX carry Trades Turn into caveats themes Trades in the end of this month?

Nothing seems going the wrong way if EURJPY is at Extreme

The yen has failed to appreciate in line with Japan’s economic recovery. For foreign investors, the Yen remains an attractive funding currency for buying euros, especially since BOJ tightens policy on a quarterly basis. At the same time, concerns about slowing global growth have encouraged equity managers to remain under-weight Japanese equities.

Technique of EURJPY

Model funds had added to their long EURJPY positions despite Yen-Bullish Fundamentals.

FOREXSURVIVORsee that these funds will hit stop-losses at 14300. Apart, a correction down to this level would trigger a massive liquidation of EURJPY longs.

As FOREXSURVIVORequation lays the concept of the EURJPY routing, there is no expectation that EURJPY will visit lower level than 14500 that soon, and apparently the 14300 level to be breached early next year. What solicits the equation, persistent buying EURJPY by Japanese Investors.

AUDNZD shorts on the liquidation phase

FOREXSURVIVORtargets AUDNZD @ 12300 since mid September, and positioned long since then.

The market overestimated the probability of RBNZ rate hike in January 2007, and underestimated the chances of an RBA rate hike on 1 Nov.

noreply@blogger.com (Anthony Samaha) — Thu, 21 Sep 2006 23:50:00 -0700

USDCAD 11200 long term trading concept, we see USDCAD reaching a level soon, allowing us to take a trade for 16 figures… Possibility of short vs. long 50-50.

Which level is to be screened?
When will that level be screened?

If you are enthusiasm about knowing how to gain those 16 figures, please don’t be. Emotional stress is against our equations, and instead we rely on our Customized Emotional signal trading tactics and strategies:

FOREXSURVIVOR DOES NOT TAKE ONTO CONSIDERATION THE FOLLOWING ELEMENTS WHEN IT TRADES:

ü Support, Resistance, Pivot points
ü Interest rates
ü Central Bank Governor
ü News (political, natural catastrophe, war)
ü Stop-loss (no stop-losses is used)

FOREXSURVIVOR is a dynamic trading system that avoids all market noises. This program is neither a trend following nor a counter trend system but a combination of both. We do not trade accounts with only one security. We are always in the market, and we have more than 40 forex currency pairs, 10 equities indices, and the famous commodities (Gold / Silver).

FOREXSURVIVOR does not provide “history” proofs because it is a dilemma consequence. The unprecedented capability of FOREXSURVIVOR is to trade all instruments in the form of currency, commodity, and equity, by providing a "surviving" method for the BAD trades.

STOP LOOSING YOUR ACCOUNT AND STOP IT NOW