FourOuncesToFreedom.com

Carwin/Velasquez at UFC 104?

Shane Carwin's last 2 twitter messages:

Looks like I'll be fighting October 24 in LA. Excited to know.

Oops I was not supposed to say anything. Got to get used to people watching me. No bout agreement yet. Looks like Cain and I if all goes

Obviously, this is an extremely interesting matchup, and the winner could very well get a title shot. I'm sort of surprised they're matching them up this quickly, but at least no one can say they're babying their up-and-coming heavyweights. My initial thoughts are that if Cain got dropped by Kongo, he's going to have massive trouble with Carwin's power.

WEC 41 Preview

I don't have a ton of time, so I'm just going to get an abbreviated preview of this event out there. I was going to skip a preview altogether, but that seems unfair. I'm the biggest WEC fan there is, and I felt like I was letting them and myself down by not letting people know how fucking killer this card is going to be. To be honest, I'm actually a bit hesitant about tomorrow, because one of my heroes is likely going to get beaten into retirement, and watching that happen is something I've been dreading all week. My completely illogical preview of the fight should explain that one. Other than that, you've got a showcase for a guy who should get his rematch at the 155 belt soon, and a whole bunch of featherweight action -- the best, deepest division in MMA, in my humble opinion. Anyway, let's get to the card.

Jens Pulver vs. Josh Grispi - Yes, a Pulver win is highly unlikely, but I'm not going against Lil Evil. Can't do it. Throw objectivity out the window. I'm not sure I can back up a Pulver win with even the most jaded analysis. I just don't want to see a guy I respect so much go out like this. I know it's a tad unfair, but why can't the WEC just throw Jens a bone and give him a marginal fighter to get his confidence back?

There's so much going on in his head, I'm not sure he has the capacity to fight the smart fight against Grispi. His chin is all but gone. He's likely to get overwhelmed by Grispi's pace. All he really has is experience and smarts in his favor here, and basically I'm making this pick based on that. Catch the 21 year old napping, and force him to get tapping.

People, don't bet on Jens. See this for what it is - one of his biggest fans living a lie. The Fluke is likely going to win. You're likely watching the last fight of Pulver's career. I'm not willing to stick to that (likely) script though. That's bullshit. That's no way to go out. I don't care if that's "life" and "life is unfair". Fuck that. Screw the analysis for once, I'm calling this like a true fight fan. Lil Evil takes out the punk kid. Jens Pulver, submission, round 1. Glad this isn't part of the fantasy contest.

Donald Cerrone vs. James Krause - It irks me that people constantly mis-characterize Cerrone as a ground guy, because of the subs on his record. His standup is world-class at 145, and he started as a kickboxer. The ground game came later. Yes, he's good on the ground, but his bread and butter is his striking game, and like most strikers, his biggest weakness is his takedown defense. In this vein, Krause is not a bad matchup for him. He'll have the WEC octagon jitters, and will get overwhelmed by Cerrone on the feet. His wrestling isn't that great, and even if he gets Cowboy down, he won't keep him there for long. This is the fight where Cowboy will finally have a target to showcase that killer striking. Cerrone, TKO, round 1.

Jose Aldo vs. Cub Swanson - This fight is so much closer than people are giving Cub credit for. I'm certainly on the Aldo bandwagon, and his size and skills are massive. But Cub should not be a 3-1 dog here. Yes, the guy got caught up by Jens in a minute, but that's his only loss since the first fight of his career. He controlled a tall, lanky BJJ guy in Micah Miller and got the W. The win over Takaya was impressive. If Aldo is going to finish Cub, it's going to be on the ground. I see Aldo's killer striking winning him rounds, but not getting a finish. Aldo, semi-close decision.

Mike Brown vs. Urijah Faber for the 145 belt - The size difference will be evident later in the fight, but I can't say for sure if that will benefit Brown or Faber. I can't see how Faber can finish MTB, so a decision win by Faber is all he's got. He certainly has the cardio and pace to get it, but Brown's a monster that's going to hurt Faber multiple times. Brown can stun and sub Faber, he can be patient and catch Faber doing something stupid like last time, and he has more power in his hands than Faber. I think it's better for the WEC if The Califonia Kid gets that belt back, but Brown is the real deal. It'll be a close, long fight, but Brown's the horse I'm betting on. Mike Brown, decision.

Quick picks
Lil Evil, sub, round 1
Cerrone, TKO, round 1
Aldo, decision
Brown, decision

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Strikeforce Preview

The weekend is a kickass weekend for MMA, and that's without even a UFC event. This Strikeforce card on Saturday night is by far the best card they've ever put on. Then on sunday, you get to watch the Pulver/Brown rematch [7-days-later edit - Pulver/Brown? Told you I was worried about Jens all week. FABER/Brown is what I meant] at WEC 41. The best part? It's all free (if you get Showtime, anyway). Actually, the whole month is pretty crazy, with the Bellator tourney finals, a Strikeforce Challengers card, UFC 99 and the TUF 9 finale. There's even Tim Sylvia and Ray Mercer boxing, if you're really bored. Anyway, let's get to why we're here.

Quite simply, this is a sick card. I'm still not a fan of catchweight fights, but I guess I don't see the harm if they don't keep continually going back to them. Bringing in Arlovski was a genius move, as he's probably the most well-known fighter on the card and will draw a lot of casual viewers. Plus, it's likely that Affliction will pay his salary, so it's win-win for everyone. Well, except for Brett Rogers probably. Over half of these guys have KO power, and I can pretty much guarantee that, aside from Mike Whitehead, every fighter here has the ability to do something that will get you off your ass and yelling at the TV. On the other hand, I might be the only person that does that a lot. Go Old Milwaukee.

Kevin Randleman vs. Mike Whitehead - Honestly, who knows how to call this. I have absolutely no idea what Kevin Randleman will show up. Does he still have The Monster in him, or is he going to re-expose himself as a washed up 37 year old MMA 1.0 guy who's 3-7 in his last 10? In his first fight back, he decisioned Ryo Kawamura but did NOT look good doing it. He barely threw any strikes, and just worked takedowns the whole time. He also was extremely close to tapping to a kimura. That fight was a year ago now. Randleman is working with Xtreme Couture, but it's tough to say where he's at. Whitehead isn't exciting at the best of times, but he's hard to finish. I'm going to go with a dreadfully boring lay n pray decision win for Randleman here.

Phil Baroni vs. Joe Riggs - This fight is all sorts of weird. Both of these guys are still relevant because of their mouths more than anything. Riggs has been very injury prone lately, and said after his last fight against Luke Stewart that he wanted to go back up to 185 because the cut was too much for him. Guess not, but I wouldn't be surprised if he hits the scales a bit heavy. Baroni's trying to rebuild his career at 170, but...come on, it's Phil Baroni. He's a sprawl n brawler, and that's about it. Basically, Riggs is a better wrestler and has a better chin. Baroni likes fighting southpaws, but I don't think he's going to get a KO here. I'll say Riggs will get a late TKO by wearing him down and taking him to places he doesn't want to be. Riggs, TKO, round 3.

Nick Diaz vs. Scott Smith - This is just a crazy style matchup. Smith has insane power, but Diaz has a great chin. Diaz wins rounds with his pawing, while Smith is content to load up bombs. Diaz is obviously better on the ground, but surprisingly he has but 1 victory by submission in the last 5 years. This fight all depends on where Nick wants to take it, and he SHOULD get Smith on his back ASAP. Trading shots with Scott Smith is a bad fucking idea, but you never know with Nick, because he just loves to take it to guys he probably shouldn't. He wants to be exciting, and I don't really blame him. I'm going with a good Cesar Gracie gameplan here though, and I'm going to say Diaz by softening him up on the ground and getting a sub in round 2. But he's probably going to get rocked at least once before he smartens up.

Andrei Arlovski vs. Brett Rogers - This one's pretty simple. Roger's isn't ready for a guy of AA's caliber. He hasn't fought anyone remotely good, and Arlovski is arguably the 3rd best HW in the world. Hopefully we'll get to see more of Arlovski's boxing technique here, because it looked pretty good against Fedor before his flying dolphin routine. The Grim won't get the chance to tie up with Arlovski, and I don't think he hits hard enough to put him out, even though we all know what Arlovski's jaw is made of. AA by TKO in round 1. Great boxing sets up some huge power shots, and Rogers will go night night.

Robbie Lawler vs. Jake Shields - Well, it's a crazy style matchup again, I'll give it that. I'm not sure why, but this fight doesn't do much for me. I've always thought Lawler is overrated, and while Shields is legitimate fighter, he's neglected his standup for a long time. He looked bad for a while against Paul Daley before getting his shit together and taking the fight to the floor. Lawler is going to be much harder to take down, but if it does get there, Robbie's in a world of trouble. 2 things are key for me here - Jake's chin, and Lawler's sprawl. I'm sure Shields is the underdog, but I think he shocks MMA in the end. Gets beat up in the first, but earns the good takedown in the second and submits Lawler with something pretty. Shields, submission, round 2.

Quick picks:

Randleman, decision
Riggs, TKO, round 3
Diaz, sub, round 2
Arlovski, TKO, round 1
Shields, sub, round 2

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MMA Prospects: Light Heavyweights

Continuing on with the prospects theme from this article, here are a few light heavyweights you might see in the near future. In 2 days I'm already batting .500 on the HW's, but I wouldn't count on any of these guys showing up too soon.

Ryan Jimmo - I'm not sure if a guy has ever lost a prelim fight on TUF and still been able to get into the UFC, but if not, Ryan Jimmo could very well be the first. He lost a decision to Antwain Britt on the first episode of TUF 8, but has improved by leaps and bounds in the short time since. He was a silver medalist at the Pan Am Games in karate, but had two glaring weaknesses in his game - a lack of boxing and wrestling. He has greatly improved both, especially his boxing, and is looking for another shot at the UFC. If he keeps winning, he just might get it.

Stanislav Nedkov - Has there ever been a Bulgarian in the UFC besides Jordan Radev? I honestly don't know, but this guy has the goods to make it. He was supposed to make his pro debut against UFC vet Tomas Drwal back in the day, but the fight didn't happen. He has fought in Shooto, Pancrase, and most recently Sengoku, where he picked up a huge win over Travis Wiuff. He's a BJJ black belt with extremely good, but raw striking. I fully expect him to get a shot in the UFC after a few more victories.

Ricardo Romero - Romero is a former Rutgers wrestler with mad power who was on the rise until an unfortunate incident in a fight last year. He was on his way to winning the Ring of Combat LHW title, until he goofed and landed an illegal soccer kick to the face of his opponent, Glen Sandull. In a weird moment, Sandull was awarded the title while being loaded onto a stretcher, and didn't even realize he won the fight until hours later in the hospital. Despite that setback though, Romero has gone on to win 2 more fights since, and finally gets his rematch with Sandull in the next couple of weeks. A win would definitely set him up for an appearance with a major organization. He's hard to take down and has a killer left hook, but needs to work on his footwork and striking defense.

Alexander Gustafsson - He's a tall LHW (6'5) from Sweden with a very impressive skillset. He has a well developed kickboxing background, in addition to solid freestyle and submission wrestling. He takes amateur boxing fights for fun in his spare time, so that should tell you something about his tenacity. And he's only 22. Talented european fighters are hard to come by, and Gustafsson would be an excellent pickup if the UFC continues to expand over there. The only thing that might be holding him back a bit is some minor knee trouble, but with his length and well-rounded skill set, he could be a future contender at 205. I'm just waiting for the UFC to get on the bandwagon and sign this guy.

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MMA Prospects - Heavyweight

A post on the board gave me an idea for a series of articles. Originally I was going to do it all in one article, but decided to split it up into weight classes. This isn't really a list of can't-miss, obvious talent. It's more about introducing you to some guys you most likely haven't heard of, but could quite possibly get a shot in the UFC or WEC in the future. In addition, I'm leaving off Japanese prospects for 2 reasons. One, a board member did a great job of listing them here, and two, not a lot of Japanese fighters come over here to fight, so while those guys might end up in Dream or Sengoku, they're not guys that Zuffa is exactly lining up for. I figured I'd stick with more familiar territory.

First up, Heavyweights.

Heavyweight

Mike Russow - A 6'2, 265 midwest fighter who wrestled at the same college as Matt Hughes. He fought once in Pride, where he picked up his only loss to Sergei Kharitonov. He's only gone the distance once in his career, and has good all-round skills. He's also one of Monte Cox's guys, so that gives him a line into the UFC.

UPDATE - Crazy, I wrote this last night, and the UFC signed him today. Weird.

Brendan Schaub - He's 6'4, 240, and he's got heavy hands. He's new to the sport, but has caught on very quickly. He played football at the University of Colorado. Then started MMA after school was over. Less than a year into his MMA training, he won the 2008 Colorado Golden Gloves, and won the 2008 Colorado Open BJJ Absolute Advanced competition. He currently trains with Greg Jackson after starting with Nate Marquardt. None of his pro fights have got to the 90 second mark.

Chase Gormley The current Gladiator Challege HW Champ has been training MMA for over 10 years and is a former NAIA All-American wrestler. He's a small HW at around 225, and could maybe make the cut to LHW if he needed to. Gormley was booked for a fight on Affliction's second card, but when the card was postponed and moved to Cali, he was dropped. He's fighting Jeff Monson this weekend, and a win there would go a long way toward Gormley getting a contract with a big organization.

Daniel Puder - Probably a name you've heard before. He's most famous for his stint in the WWE, and for putting Kurt Angle in a legitimate kimura on national TV. He's 7-0 in MMA though, and trains with AKA. He's known as much for his mouth as his skills, and while he'll probably end up fighting in Strikeforce again before anywhere else, he could be a well-rounded pickup for the UFC's HW division.

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