Frank Vs The Weather

Why I am learning Python

2011-10-18T02:09:00.000-07:00

For me its Python, for you it can be Ruby, Java, PHP, or (xxanythingxx).

The future belongs to people who can manipulate machines. At this point in time learning how to code a machine is the equivalent of learning to swim. Everyone should know how.

The world is shifting towards semi/full automation and machine intelligence has become more prevalent in every day devices. Knowing how to dig in and commandeer a machine at its root or semi root level will become an essential tool of survival.

I don't mean in a robot uprising kind of way but more of a Connecticut Yankee in King Skywalkers court. There will come a time when a certain generation will wake up and suddenly be awkward from a fast technology shift. Not awkward like some old chap released on parole trying to figure out how to get on the NYC metro but awkward in understanding their relationship to machines and automation. Awkward in understanding how to perform code surgery on the things around them that affect their daily lives so significantly. Apple has taken a step forward in design in order to create a UI relationship with users but I believe we are approaching a time in which beautiful UI wont be enough. In many ways Apple has made code engineers out of anyone that uses their devices. We are able to do a lot of powerful things with so few movements but eventually we will all need more powerful tools and understanding in order to build our own simplicity.

To me video games have become more important in producing theory than fun. I used to love them but by design games are using internal economies of time/money to keep you involved in an epic loop of saturation. When I play games now I no longer think about what I should do afterwards but rather how long I have until I feel depression and guilt. I feel time slipping away, unspent and deeply saddening; as a result I have shifted towards casual games. That being said I think games still serve a very important service. They are the first step in teaching children how to create emotional attachments to machines and machine intelligence. Going forward video games will be essential tools to teach children about the complexities of machine and machine code. Learning the art and output of code by gaming will help educate young programmers in a necessary liberal arts approach to machine architecture and design.

If my wife and I raise a child then computers, robots, machines, games, and code will be an essential part of our home education.... and of course play, lots of play.

Taxes in the Netherlands

2011-06-28T16:09:00.000-07:00

A quick note about taxes in the Netherlands.

I have lived all my life in the US until three years ago when my wife and I landed in the NL. We took a job here so we could live and travel in Europe. We are also health care refugees as we wanted to have a child. We had no idea at the time what path a pregnancy would take but looking at the worst case scenarios in the US (fertility clinic, c-sections) we decided we couldn't afford the enormous potential costs.

Like most Americans I dread and loathe the IRS. Every year when I sign away my taxes I experience a jarring frustration and depart with the money feeling like I lost at some shell game on the street.

When I pay my taxes here in the NL I only experience a slight sadness, much like a really good vacation that's just concluded. I think to myself, "Well we spent too much but we had a lot of fun."

Why the difference?

In the Netherlands you actually get to see where your taxes go. Take bicycle infrastructure. There are miles and miles of it covering the entire country. There is no profit motive, no hidden agenda, its just there to improve the quality of your life. My taxes here pay for museum discounts, incredible public transportation, world class festivals, health care, beautiful parks, on and on.

In the US (im still paying taxes as I earn income there) I am frustrated about where my tax dollars go. Illegal wars, wall street bailouts, housing bailouts, bridges to nowhere, crumbling infrastructure, freeway culture. I have almost no say about this, it just goes where it goes.

The main point is to create an understanding between a low tax and higher tax environment. After that which country is better for you depends on other factors. My basic take on NL vs US is this. If you want to remake your own story and start a business the US is much easier to do that in. Europe has a hierarchical rigidity and some barriers to entry on starting things up. If you want a great lifestyle and a family then Europe is for you. Priority: Work, money, career = US Priority: Food, life, family = Europe. Both formulas are interchangeable but if you lean heavily on one side or the other I think this makes it easier to decide between the two.

Lastly and most importantly to people who don't like taxes, if you get a work permit here and are sponsored by a company or academic institution you can qualify for Knowledge Migrant status. As a Knowledge Migrant you pay less income tax than a native Dutch resident.

Appsterdam ideas in twitsprek

2011-06-28T14:53:00.000-07:00

I. The Silicon Valley of .........

I would stop using the Silicon Valley reference as a model or comparison. Its almost like a writer starting a literary journal to publish himself and other writers who can't get published.

Appsterdam needs to be other, new, better. There will never be another Silicon Valley but there might be something better out there. Appsterdam could very well be it.

II. Practical. Turn the Google 20% time concept on its head and create a system that will allow funding from large business's and VC's for a centralized space in which you devote 20% to their cause and 80% to your start up. Perhaps a first right of refusal for an equity stake could go to the source site founders and supporters. A peer and corporate supported warehouse space could operate as a fluid club house for serendipitous creativity.

III. Impossible. Its the Netherlands. Land use interpretation, design, creative financing, funding are some specialties of this nation. Why not propose a new city to be built on an app island as a strange new wilderness of tech tax haven. Maybe the island could have a tax offset similar to the knowledge migrant for revenues generated by projects residing within the city. This would stimulate growth and motivate people to join the project. If you want everyone in the same place I say go even further and build that place rather than occupy it with disparate housing and cafes as meet up places. A new land, almost its own country.

IV. Organic vs. Planned. Whatever the vision is now be prepared to let it steer itself. Central planning in so many aspects almost always leads to failure. Adjust, destroy, build, renew, push; be organic.

Brute Force Luck with sauce on side

2011-04-21T03:49:00.000-07:00

How to win/lose definitively indefinitely with psychic luck.

Have you ever admired an investor/trader? It's not their great trades that you admire it's the cult of their brain fluid that you worship. Brain fluid determines our shield level which in turn is how people perceive us. Have you ever seen someone you instantly dislike? Its because they are low on brain fluid and the ugly mind is allowed to shine through without the painterly filter of their brain fluid.

Yesterday I took over for my boss for two hours while she went for a walk and a cleansing at our local krispy kreme. She finds that their incredibly clean bathrooms and delectable sugar smell help mask her other worldly bowel movements. In addition she believes that this bathroom in that krispy kreme is the center for conduit to the market dimension that exists beyond the folds of our space continuum. She goes there to replenish her market powers.

While she was gone I saw three clients; two whom are repeat customers, one was a brand new first time customer. I put them all in a room and throttled them with mind flaying's. I Scrittered (scream+twitter) at them for about 20 minutes to ask why they were there, what did they really want? In the end we determined that for them money is the pursuit of happiness. How sad I thought. There would never be enough to buy the happiness they pursue.

So we determined one strategy for them. Brute force luck. They brought me cash and promissory notes for debaucherous nights out in the financial wooleries of Houston. I now control their collective load of about 3 million.

I am going to lose it all or turn it into 100 million in 2 years. In the mean time they bought a dream of how much happiness debt they can stuff themselves with while waiting for me to make the big score and clean their debts out.

It begins today.

Why asset and dollar fed manipulation probably wont work

2010-11-29T07:37:00.001-08:00

If I give away heroin on the street corner and there is no one there to snort it

does it make a tree in the woods high?

Once you telegraph your move and give people an amount you are working

with why would they participate knowing one day the entire structure you

are manipulating will have to stand on its own. Your'e feet are cold so I

want you to stand on this lava heated rug that i'm then going to pull out

from under you once your feet are warm. Beneath the rug is a pit of lava

with lava immune crocodiles.

What you have done is given short sellers the exact tools they need to

work against you. If big short sellers work against you on the other side

and push the market down you will have the few remaining players retiring

from the game because they rely on the uncertain principles of old lore 10 commandments like thou shalt do value investing, thou shalt buy and

hold, thou shalt emulate Warren Robber Buffet.

Bernanke has effectively announced to a table of smarter poker players

that he is going all in on the next hand with a 2 7 off suit. Everyone on

the other side knows his hand and the amount of chips he is betting with

so they can bet against him accordingly.

Their only saving grace is recent evidence the economy is rebounding.

If it rebounds fast enough then their sick deranged plan of inflating the

assets of billionaires at the expense of everyone else might work without

destroying the country.

theInvisible long absent has re-engineered

2010-07-25T23:18:00.001-07:00

I am reviving me old museum incubator from Chinatown LA here in Amsterdam.

I am going to use several distribution methods to create online redundancy. So far I am using meetup to troll for interested people to join in. Meetup is mostly used for people who are isolated by a move or looking for new friends but the software infrastructure is easy to use.

Here is the blurb I exhumed and re posted to meetup which has now become a heiro-mummy traveling from a 2 year death to two new locations on a blog and social network.

"Humanity has reached a point in which the intensity for technological victory or set back is quickening. The end of science and technology is also the end of humanity but it is not a bad thing to end humanity, I call it the good apocalypse. We stand on the edge of capability to alter our bodies and minds in such significant ways that we will achieve a homo-nexus and branch from our current evolutionary state into an unknown design. Academics refer to this as the singularity. At this stage the group will not formally meet but rather be about quantitatively contributing to awareness of the need for an epicenter of the singularity. I propose that a city be built to house the people and technology in a non competitive or cooperative competitive environment. Since cities take grand will and massive funding to build the start of this city project will take place in a public location. We will build this city with notes, photos, ideas, objects, discussion, and other unknown materials or abstracts. The city will always be open and we should expect it to be constantly destroyed or altered by garbage collectors or vandals due to its public location. At beginning stages consider such changes as helpful rather than harmful. The first stage of this project will be location selection. Once a location is agreed upon members should visit it as they please and alter the location with ideas and props. Members are encouraged to arrange any kind of meeting they wish or rely on luck and randomness to create social opportunity. The Amsterdam area is an ideal location for stage one due to the history of creative land use in adverse conditions. Perhaps with will and determination the actual city I am proposing can be built here on an artificial island. I call this project the Invisible because the key to advancing the singularity is manipulation of the smallest particles which are invisible to the natural eye."

The funnel of excess

2010-03-31T00:36:00.000-07:00

Yesterday I finished a model i'm building for an electric generator. My first attempt at building this small device failed because I tried to violate the laws of physics. I live in a small Norwegian salmon fishing shack on the grounds of the large hadron colider in switzerland. The shack was built by a very distant relative of mine that goes beyond 2nd's and remove's, but somehow this thin trace of blood was enough for me to take over his legacy job as grounds keeper of the inner circle of the collider.

I eat lunch in the cafeteria every day with all the other people from all over the world, luckily I have been able to get to know a few of them very well through a common interest in art. I asked them about violating laws of physics; if i just kept at it and worked hard enough would physics eventually cave in and give up. They said no. I laughed too, after all if these PHD's really knew anything they would be on Wall Street. That being said I described my invention and they proceeded to give me some simple solutions for proper use of magnetic fields. Hoek Vun! (means by the beard of the fermented shark in Norweigan) It worked! Now my generator is up and running and I can move to phase II on this alt energy project.

I have been trading since 2001 but I am working on a multitude of other projects so I can potentially cycle out of trading the markets. The end of the prosperity, the end of the semi fair game may be near for the US markets and all its players. As a result the end of value in your money and our society may also be near. With this risk plausible I don't want to be caught in the world with only the skills of a day/swing trader.

Careening:

It is not an easy task to accomplish, wrecking a globally powerful empire but history is full of examples. We may have entered not a Japanese style recession but rather an Italian one. Italy has been in a recession since the 400's, thats one thousand six hundred ten years, crappenshaft! So which is it, what recession are we in? Are we still in one? I guess so, things are a mixed bag of good and bad at the moment based on real world indicators. I am looking around me; the people I know whom have lost jobs, the foreclosure map on zillow, stores closed in otherwise prosperous places in my old neighborhood in Pasadena CA.

The violation of laws that would make a free market work could lead to economic ambiguity. If the stock market is kept inflated and continues to move unabated to untold heights it will be like building a meth lab in your heart. Its going to feel awesome to pump it right into the epicenter but eventually when the long haired chemists with jr high educations get it wrong its going to explode and paste your heart on the ceiling of your trailer. How long can we pump the market up and why are we doing it? What is the outcome? In our awesome service based economy the stock market has almost become the largest passive service industry of all. So much of the power paradigm relies on it going up. Pensions, senators, billionaires, investment bank warlords (whom make up our government), companies with no profit (many US companies seem to follow this interesting strategy of no profit). We have really collectively gone all in on the US market. Perhaps its the market itself and not its components that is too big to fail. We drain our best brains to wall street and our dumbest to washington. We manufacture a moderate amount and we consume a lot of distraction. Now we are at a cross roads. We can take the pain and go through a very ugly recession in which everyone loses a lot, or we can use artificial means to inflate our biggest oxygen tank piggy bank. We have chosen... it has been chosen for us as the latter.

So now what happens? When you artificially inflate assets at an epic scale how do you step off the accelerator? How do you wean off the tit thats full of rainbow juice? It is very very hard. The only way you can is when a bigger boobie emerges behind it thats full of the real stuff; an actual producing economy. How do we grow a new economy? I personally think it needs to be driven by science and technology, manufacturing as we know it from boom times in the 20th century isn't necessarily the solution. We have botched our old real economy by allowing a slow ruin of the middle class through several presidencies and the pull of great minds into finance. There is an enormous challenge in the asset infalte stop gap that we are on. This is why I am moving on to other skill sets, at least until the market normalizes, if it ever does.

By going all in on the stock markets at a national level from government to individuals we may seal our fate into a vicious crack of inflation/deflation/muttonation. I don't know, it doesnt matter one word or the next, thats up to real economists to predict. What matters is trusting the market which is based on primarily illusion with your entire intellectual and physical wealth will at this juncture in our capitalist history possibly lead to personal ruin.

Brute Force Luck

2010-03-18T08:39:00.000-07:00

It begins today.

How to win at cheating

2009-12-16T03:18:00.000-08:00

There is one giant circle. That is the unlikely. What is yours?

The smaller circles are the probable. Saving beard clippings reminds me that the act of shaving the beard can contribute about .002% to the larger circle idea.

In the large I want to build a city that would coalesce all disparate competitive technology and science incubators into one grand compact city. I need billions of dollars to do this. At the moment I only have a fraction of that. I am trying to publish a google map showing many of the housings I want in one place but google doesn't have a fake city builder app; it goes slow.

In the small a recent victory is receiving mass feedback on a published item which proves two things.

1. Some people read it

2. The comment thread caught a lucky response virus

I can not measure the feedback as a percentage at the moment as its a new data set. Today I hope to self propel my materialistic needs through more gambling. I have divided the pie in 4 pieces and I estimate that one of the four slices needs to be edible. If the other three fail it does not destroy the pie. At the moment SNSS looks possible for another run, as does ARRY.

If I could slay the dragon

2009-12-10T01:17:00.001-08:00

Well there are many dragons right now from congress to Bernanke but lets just say for simplicity they are all orgyfied into one master beast and we just slew it. I want to make this post group think. Post your idea(s) on what you would do to actually fix a broken economy unlike the people currently fixing it to oblivion. Maybe we can create an Internet snowball and throw it as Washington and flatten the place.

1. Let Goldman Sachs die free market style and debunk the myth of too big to fail. I think too big to fail is an unpopular myth and these companies are actually too big to succeed. The destruction of pure capital in my opinion is actually a good thing. What happens when you create years and years of fake wealth that keeps growing by eating magic expanding never ending gobstoppers? That money wants more money. To get more that money seeks increasingly exotic products in order to provide a return superior to savings. Eventually it collapses from its own exoticism and we get a financial meltdown. The financial system would have been well served to punish those whom produced epic failure, instead it rewarded them by giving them a re-load to their self destructive canon. We had one chance to destroy an excess of fake capital and instead we saved it.

If we had let Goldman, GM, AIG, and everyone else too big to succeed die their services and deposits would have redistributed to smaller more nimble companies whom would have had years of competitive growth ahead.

Investments banks - Boutiques could have sifted through the ashes and gained surviving deposits and provided services.

Banks - With government assistance we could have redistributed FDIC insured deposits to smaller smarter better run banks.

GM - Let all but one of the big three die and use it as a stop gap to a new era of American car manufacturing. Use some "bailout" money to fund small nimble start ups and get America to take the lead in manufacturing advanced technology vehicles.

Chapter II

Ahhhh housing. Trying to re inflate over inflated assets will most likely end in failure. We will either get a second wave of a housing crash or just have this long drawn out zombie mash up where people keep tossing homes at each other like hot potatoes because they can't actually afford them. Lets talk solution, and yes I'm actually promoting a government bailout here, libertarians be damned.

I propose a 10 year tax deduction program be rewarded to anyone who agrees to sell their house at an assessed value from 1998. If you agree to sell your house at its 1998 value you then get a tax break equivalent to the difference in value from 1998 to now spread over 10 years. The buyer of the property agrees that for the same 10 year period their house is no longer part of the free market and can only rise in value by a very small fixed percentage. If they sell the house they can only sell for a price dictated by the annual percentage rise in value as determined by the number of years out 10 they have held the property.

The bank that gave the original mortgage also receives a tax break based on the difference between the 1998 assessed value and current assessed value.

Perhaps a plan like this could get the housing market moving again without causing individuals and regional banks massive losses. Yes you do lose something as you should but re pricing assets to match peoples salaries is what really matters and this is one possible way to do it.

I am not an economist, I am a twitchy fingered day trader that uses the profits to support other pursuits. I don't know if I am way off base I just know the solutions Government Goldman came up with amounted to a giant bank robbery and helped no one.

So what say you? What are your ideas for a real fix, help me make a snowball or at least a giant snow man for the Capital lawn this winter.

Chemical breakdown

2009-11-10T08:23:00.000-08:00

Daspan. Forget gold. Forget oil. The most valuable commodity in the world right now is Daspan. Daspan was discovered somewhere between March 2009 and July 2009. No one person discovered it although I am tempted to name our very own Ben Bernanke as the lucky prospector but that's for historians to decide years from now.

The elements of Daspan have been around for over 100 years but they have rarely formed a stable material. Daspan has always been volatile and difficult to control, until recently. Several months ago it was discovered that a low value chemical called USD could be mixed with Daspan to create a new compound. When USD is mixed into Daspan the result is a fascinating reaction that creates an inflating cloud like mass that can be used to prop up weak foundations.

The problem with this compound is its temporary nature. Without additional funding to eventually fix the foundations they will crumble completely. So using this new compound is very risky if you are unable to get additional funding before the stop gap fails.

To understand the trade in Daspan one needs to first do a chemical break down of this commodity. D is one part Dow, and SP is one part S&P, and N is one part Nasdaq thus equaling the easy to remember Daspan (all a's = and).

The second part of understanding Daspan is knowing what it used to be before its recent evolution. Daspan used to be a chemical in three parts representing a complex system known as a stock market. This stock market quite simply was a group of capitalist companies that the public could speculate on by trading shares that represented the value of said companies.

I mentioned gold and oil earlier because those two commodities surpassed most peoples expectations of value. Gold couldn't go higher, it was over valued. Oil couldn't go higher it was over valued. I read this over and over in the news and yet both of these commodities surpassed expectations and indeed both can be argued as being under valued or over valued. The point is they were in the hands of traders and traders pushed those values higher. The reality of value as a related and tangible amount is difficult to model as an investment/trading strategy. Invariably a strange unforeseen event will always destroy this perception and leave those whom bet the wrong way with substantial losses.

Many people are excellent at making large bets on commodities and that's how bulls/bears should be treating this market. It is a new paradigm made up of a flimsy compound and it will continue to surpass expectations until the foundations crumble or by some miracle we fix it. (aka economic recovery). The walls may crack, the windows might shake but until the pockets of investment banks are stuffed with government money transferred via the stock market, betting against the continued rise of this commodity will be like wrapping yourself in razor wire after a lemon bath. The viscous and brutal down draft will be difficult to time, it may be tomorrow or 3 months from now, it might not come at all. I will wait for it rather than time it.

There is no market, there is only a government supported commodity and this unstoppable force has turned the markets into a hyper movable object.

OPTT - BBBB - NVDA - GXDX

2009-11-06T09:35:00.000-08:00

OPTT - Great pr today. I sold my first buy right into the PR without seeing the news which was too bad. Bought second position and will probably hold o/n. This is really big. 19mw is a very good size install and takes them way beyond the test stage. OPTT just took the first step into becoming a real company.

BBBB - Quick trade here just looked good on the recovery.

NVDA - Went in heavy yesterday post market. Was touch and go but finally got out on a decent clip.

GXDX - Quick trade here. Expected a lot more but still got out green.

GXDX - POWR - GSI - LRN

2009-11-06T05:57:00.001-08:00

As usual I will probably go with something unknown after open but here is the glance list:

GXDX POWR GSI LRN

honorable glance goes to RST.

I have increased risk levels as you can see with poor results. I was shifting from scalps to longer holds in an attempt to increase gains.

It is a different psychological challenge when you are using close to 20% of your capital per trade. I have set a stop on the account at which time I will switch back to the slow grind I was using before.

I am actually starting to get bored with the market. I am starting to see it as a vapid carved out shell that attracts nothing but destroyers. I am very fond of games and the markets do represent an intriguing form of ancient gaming between people. It is not an easy one to play as an outsider but its a fascinating challenge.

The problem is production. I am not actually producing anything useful and I can feel my mind beginning to atrophy. As a result I decided to up the capital risk in order to retire. Bad start! If I have to return to the slow steady grind instead of the blow up or blow out (of the game) strategy then I see retirement much further off... more like 6 to 9 years from now.

MELI

2009-11-05T08:33:00.001-08:00

MELI - ended up going with MELI and some other small trades. Glancing at CKSW right now.

PARL - KNDL - GIVN - ORA - STXS - GAME

2009-11-05T05:33:00.000-08:00

Watching these for longs today.

PARL - ok ea past runner

KNDL - good ea

GIVN - strong run as of late confirmation in ea has two strong runs this year has survived against doubt.

ORA - nice ea for this reliable energy play

STXS - getting closer to being a real company, needs to be break even by next year. disposables growing

GAME - beaten down but got upgrades, prob bs insiders scratching each other to lift this recent IPO. guessing the holy houses of the street have been buying on the way down and then held an upgrade love fest.

Evaporating hope in non index stocks

2009-10-29T01:55:00.000-07:00

Verse I

I use price alerts across a wide spectrum of non index stocks to show me whats happening outside the manipulated or at least suspect dow naz and spy. Yesterday several of them tripped and the shadow world beneath the dow started to panic.

Lets look at a fine example of the non index backroom hopefuls.

BSDM - The story in a nutshell. They have some kind of awesome phaser that shoots a hot anti cancer death ray. Wow. What do they really do? Who cares. The point is they released a headline on September 22nd that states:

A Phase III study, which utilized the BSD-2000 Hyperthermia System, demonstrated that patients with high risk soft-tissue sarcomas were 30% more likely to be alive and cancer free almost three years after starting treatment if targeted heat therapy (hyperthermia) was added to their chemotherapy treatment.

Good enough for blind optimism to pile in. Never mind the fact that the company has been releasing the same headline since the 1980's. Lets look at what happened next:

Solid! Pretty exciting pop but look closer at the filing and what do you see? 3% institutional ownership. Dimensional Fund Advisors is the largest institutional owner with 466,864 shares. This safely identifies BSDM as a probable valueless stock (which i think comprises about 96% of the stock market but thats another post) and is therefore only good in a bullish era or in the unlikely event their technology becomes viable.

The illusion of value is only sustainable when the market is absorbing optimism in the form of hopeful capital.

The stock pulled back as it should but what happened to it this week:

It fell off the line it had formed in the 2.50ish area and is now trading at its pre pop anti cancer headline share price. BSDM and all its ilk are probable canaries for the market at large and should warrant attention.

Verse II

I am a closet admirer of the Bear Masters here as I do not short stocks. I always play long no matter what (except for extreme events) because I believe real value is a rarity, therefore stocks are kept high on an illusion and magic is far more powerful than reality. Reality is what sends stocks down and I am terrible with reality.

Earnings gaps have been strong against market headwinds as of late and the first hour scalps have been superb. Look at NTRI and PEET yesterday. Most of the time I don't know what I am going to scalp until after the open when my screener data kicks in but today so far my pre open list has MOT (droid release) and AKAM (strong name post earnings play).

Why shorting is a bad idea near term

2009-10-15T05:40:00.000-07:00

The government is buying stocks. Yes we all know this but knowing their plan is essential.

The government plans to buy stocks to push up retirement accounts. When the value of retirement accounts increases it makes people feel wealthy.

When they feel wealthy they buy things from wal mart and things like real estate.

Eventually we may even see a recovery in this new fake economy and thats when funds who have ignored this fake rise can no longer hold back and they join in the market.

The government will do this for as long as they can (indefinite) and the US consumer economy may recover. At this point the stocks they have been buying with printed money will resemble something with actual value.

All of this is a stop gap to jump start manufacturing and infrastructure projects in our country again.

No reason to short based on your pain staking reality based research. Wait until the downside turn has plenty of steam before you short. Maybe tomorrow, maybe next year.

TSTR - VSR - CBI - CPSS

2009-09-30T06:51:00.001-07:00

Headwind is strong this AM. Lot of good news headlines but im not going in anything yet.

Action was bad right from open, you could see it. Waiting not buying.

CPSS is drifting down nicely. Under 1 should be considered.

TSTR - VSR - CBI - CPSS

2009-09-30T06:26:00.001-07:00

This mornings watch list.

TSTR - sat phone/up much in pre/need pull back for entry

VSR - low float/up in pre/need pull back for entry/navy contract

CBI - great contract/close to yearly break out/need pull back for entry

CPSS - maybe entry on drift down/great FIG headline yesterday/ still in from .90's

We wish you a beary christmas

2009-09-26T08:29:00.000-07:00

Wishing for whats seemingly right to happen is similar to trying to think a tornado off your property.

I read many blogs that lean towards the bearish side and while they are right in assuming that this massive dudley do wrong flood of global liquidity could have dire consequences on top of an already beleaguered economy they are wrong to map it to current market conditions.

Think about it. The government spent billions of your future dollars you will never have to bail out a small group of frat boys whom are incapable of reasonable conservatism. It doesn't stop there... the food line of robber barons is very long and travels by rank. By flooding goldman with billions and allowing AIG to be saved they put the money directly in the hands of the marketeers themselves. So why is anyone questioning this rising market? Why is anyone defending the fundamentals that suggest a bearish squall?

What did you think GS was going to do with all that liquidity? Buy orange groves? So what happens when the flag ship is bursting with swine and starts sailing unabashed into the bermuda triangle of never ending profitom? Everyone who got blown out follows. Hedge funds, mutual funds, traders, gamblers, the mad and the unworthy.

The stock market isn't what you want it to be. It's not a way to fund the growth of promising companies. It is a non linear gaming system that comes with all the pitfalls and glories of a mass dimension conceptual environment.

The top of this market may yet be far away and there will be no flaming arrow shot over your head telling you where it is. The recovery and replacement of the false debt that evaporated is still ongoing and may indeed lift the market much higher.

Until GS decides to lead the anti matter charge and short the market into oblivion it will go up as money flows in to rescue all the lost wealth. At that point the bears will be right but will they have anything left? Why lose money in the mean time? Everything that made you logically call the market top in the last two years should be applied to this upside run.

Ideas:

Long Concepts

AAPL - Tablet powered. Should be good for more if the market can tread water or go up. Once the tablet is announced perhaps a quick bounce then sell off.

LOOP - My friend kav pointed this one out. Nice consolidation and in the hated commercial real estate market. Breakout looks possible.

ISRG - Announced EA date and survived what people thought was the end of their growth. Somehow hospitals are still buying these incredibly expensive machines.

JAZZ - A lot of power pops and rumor mills like this one right now. Drifting off nicely look for dip down on an up future day to go in or solid consolidation on a peaceful market day.

BEE - More hated REIT action. The volume is hanging in there and until that trails off BEE is ripe for more pops.

ERTS - Lively volume and nice intra day spikes. Worth watching in the morning for spike down entry.

SBUX - This thing is begging to bust past the yearly high. GMCR honorable mention.

Ever been to the horce races?

2009-09-26T02:30:00.000-07:00

When I was a wheee Ladd I used to work at the horse race track in Los Angeles. I did everything a stable gent would do, washed horses, hot walked them, fed them, took them to workouts or races, whispered to them.

I would often have to sponge unpleasant areas of the horse during bathing and really it didn't bother me. Put me in a stall full of poop and ill breathe the sweet smell deeply.

There was one thing that really put me off though. After a heavy work out or a race most horses being of course quite perspired would generate a foamy white froth around the bridle. It was usually on the neck where the reins would rub their skin and of course from their mouths. I did everything to avoid it, I didn't like the way it looked and getting it on my skin would cause recoil in my spine.

Yes I hate froth. When I see froth I back away in horror.

Senor mercados decided to introduce some transitional froth this week. I use no indicators or macro charting to try and guess where the market is going next. My only method of determining market shifts is a dent in rhythmic profits. On friday I made only bad trades and was mired in confusion. It was as if I woke up stepped out of bed and found myself in Grand Central Station naked and smelling very badly.

Market shifts can take a day or weeks. As a result I will scale back to the low end of value in my trades until my personal market rhythm resumes.

Punch it Chewy. Capitalism gave us star wars.

2009-09-23T15:42:00.000-07:00

At its root capitalism is the essential tool to destroy all economy and it is the best of any modern system to do so. To argue that it is evil and should be stopped is anti human and short sighted. The anarchist and the communist have a major flaw in common, they fail to understand the human desire to constantly improve their condition.

There are two types of capitalism; responsible and irresponsible.

In responsible capitalism you maximize profit while improving peoples lives. In irresponsible capitalism you maximize profit at any cost, including human life.

To destroy economy humanity must end itself as we know it. This is the inevitable outcome of successful competitive capitalist organizations. Innovation is the essential force behind entrepreneurial individuals and research and development at formed companies. That innovation is the driving force that connects all capitalist organizations by their desire to advance science and technology.

A successful capitalist society works on a dangling carrot lottery system. If your for profit society is working correctly you have a large stable middle class all of whom are trying to become upper class by either hierarchy or innovation. This creates competition and inventiveness which lead to advances in science and technology. If you look at the exponential curve on science and technology you can see each generation of innovation speeds the following generation past projections. The inevitable outcome of this journey is a human machine integration and bio medical life extension procedure that effectively challenges or erases the normal birth death cycle.

Once we achieve this "good" apocalypse the need for economy will quietly evaporate due to the restrictions of a finite life being lifted. Almost everything will be done by robotics that requires labor and human beings will be free to be pure thinkers and explorers. Don't get me wrong this is not utopia, human beings will still die, hurt each other, lie, destroy but economy will cease to exist. Economy will shift to a more pure form of consciousness by which we have followers and do'ers. Blogs are a great analogy. Anyone can have a blog, they are free. What makes every blog different are the number of readers following it. Think of a future society in which all people have access to sustenance and technology equally but different levels of notoriety based on the popularity of their production.

Weaving science fiction or i should say at this point science fact with capitalism is essential to understanding the innovation by product of its root for profit purpose. I think we get too bogged down in the near term noise without realizing why we really have capitalism. It isnt just to horde and buy a bigger house or a bigger boat its to allow humanity to create and be rewarded for their creations. Without the reward and competition system innovation would be stifled by bureaucracy and individuals less motivated.

The problems with this journey are the have's and have-not's on a global scale. I don't have a solution in the near term for this problem but for the most part emerging economies that used to be mired in extreme poverty have begun to figure it out for themselves. They no longer need to be vassal states to the empirical US. Brazil, India, Vietnam have all started to figure out how to create their own sustainable middle class. This is good as more societies with stability means more people able to contribute to the exponential growth in technology advancement.

Casinos: Our Strongest Banks

2009-09-11T05:53:00.000-07:00

You go in and the lines are short for the teller.

If you deposit enough money they give you perks like champagne, a free room, access to the pig trough.

Nice spacious lobby and plenty of places to sit.

The casino's didn't need a bail out and yet they went as far as anyone into the muck of over building and credit heroin.

We should have all our deposits at casinos because they are the nations strongest financial institutions.

In return for giving casinos bank status they should be forced to put 10% of net income into building high end low to middle income housing.

All in favor come with me to Nevada next week and we can meet with legislators and tour the deserts looking for a site for the city I want to build.

Rumor as Fact

2009-09-11T05:24:00.000-07:00

I have written about 12 books. Yesterday I started working on my 13th book. This one is about a war with tree's. None of my books are finished and few of them are more than 30 pages, but I have written them so if I were to be struck down by a #14 tram crossing Molukkenstraat my lifes work could be placed in a single medium sized tome and boxed promptly after the moaning period is over. Two generations later the box would be found, opened, and sifted through. The young finding child will be thrilled that the old man in the photo tried to scribble his way through life. Then they will start a new tome and fill it with unread scribbles and die and box that too.

Since last year a new horror show in a long groaning line of cheating hoodlums has been rearing its ugly play book. Why no one is hanging from a tree on this one is a testament to clever redundant security measures or just a lack of care on the part of the authorities.

I am talking about the buyout rumor mill.

I see it every day now. (x) company rumored to be bought by (x) company. The stock shoots up, treads water then sells back down.

The rumor is the fact not the fact of the rumor. It is now another liquidity trap for smart players and dumb money. Put it on the mantle of yet another type of play for the cartel of hedging hoodlums that have control of the casino.

I noticed this behavior when last year or the year before bloomberg printed an article about URRE being worth $20.00 according to some trusted analyst type non-being. $20.00. URRE isn't really worth anything, its a uranium REIT. Have you ever met the executives at a mining company? After 10 minutes with a miner you will start wondering if they are on a work release program.

So, consider rumor to be fact and this fact is a sector. Treat the rumor as if it were steel, consumables, health care, rumor because it is now a tradable commodity and not an attempt at truth.

Natural Gas

2009-09-03T15:58:00.000-07:00

Was reading Mish this eve and he mentioned he was surpsied nat gas is priced this low, that he never expected to see it touch down at this price.

The great thing about this is reality.

Finally there is a real thing, a commodity that is reflective of how wretched our economy is. For some reason the government forever fun stick seemed to miss natural gas.

Did someone screw up? Does someone hate gas? Did hank paulson and GS not see a way to flog the gas pits and haul in more billions?

More deflation to come in different asset classes methinks but gas is refreshing. It actually feels good to see something that tells us how things are.

Imagine how relieved you would feel if we didnt look to our homes or our stock portfolios to define our wealth. Imagine instead we looked at our personal productivity as a definition of our wealth.

That book you have half finished, that criminal you defended in court, the hangliding accident that made you love grapefruit, a stranger you gave bus fare to.

My home? Yeah its worth something but its a home not a perpetual crap table that siphons pennies from credit bubble ghosts.

The sooner we can hit a real bottom the sooner we can heal and start innovating again.