Friar Forum

FanGraphs: Latos' early struggles against lefties

2009-08-03T12:25:00.000-07:00

FanGraphs.com has recently published an early article about Mat Latos. You can read the full article at FanGraphs.com (and you should spend some additional time there, if you don't know the site). To sum the post:

What’s interesting about Latos to date is his platoon split. Small sample size caveat applies heavily, but righties are hitting .091/.118/.273 against him while lefties hit .273/.360/.545.

Of course, he's only faced 25 left handed hitters this year. However, the comments on the fangraphs article indicate that he also had these issues in the minors. Usual small sample size (SSS) caveats apply to the main article.

That said, FF isn't too concerned with the numbers above. Latos has been successful so far, but his fundamental numbers (using the Fangraphs Fielding Independent Pitching numbers) indicate he's been a bit lucky with his results. All in all, there is more to be excited about here than concerned. Latos throws mid 90s with good control and gets the Ks. That's a good recipe for success when you are getting 18 starts per season in Petco.

We'll keep watching him and reporting; for now, he's the Padres highest upside thrower and looks to be a strong contributor for a little while.

Latos shows promise in debut

2009-07-20T10:35:00.000-07:00

Yesterday Mat Latos made his Padre debut again the Colorado Rockies, going 4 innings while giving up 2 earned runs, on 3 hits and a walk, and striking out 4. He threw 75 pitches in pounding the zone with 51 strikes and was lifted due to pitch count restrictions.

While he didn't electrify the crowd with the game results, Latos exhibited some of the skills that have so many in the Padre organization excited. Touted as the best Padre pitching prospect since Jake Peavy came through the system, Latos' stuff didn't disappoint.

However, that's where the Peavy comparison have to end, at least for the time being. Listed at 6' 6", Latos stands taller than that on the mound, throwing from a somewhat rigid tall-and-fall base. His fastball relies on velocity (of which it has plenty -- on Sunday his fastball ranged from 91 m.p.h. to 98 m.p.h., and was regularly around 95-96) and location, as it doesn't have much movement. Padres' VP of Scouting and Player Development, Grady Fuson, has said that Latos has one of the most electric arms he's ever seen, and upon watching the Gameday replay, Friar Forum has to agree.

His minor league numbers, all <200 innings worth, describe a guy with excellent control and the ability to miss bats (combined minor league numbers: 142 K to 37 BB in 112 IP, allowing just 5 HR during that time. Of course, all of his games were at or below AA ball), but it's worth noting that he posted those numbers while significantly younger than the competition.

What Friar Forum likes about Latos: in one word, his stuff. When you take a guy that pounds the strike zone (hitting his location within the zone), can miss bats while not giving up the longball, and put him in Petco Park (PF = 79.7, with an average MLB ballpark = 100) and you're going to find a guy to build a rotation around. His fastball tops out at 98 m.p.h., with a mid-80's slider and a changeup that is still in need of serious development. FF also appreciates the Padres' organization handling him carefully, as he's only thrown 50-60 IP each of the last two minor league seasons.

What FF doesn't like about Latos: the rumors of his fiery temperament. This is a two-edged sword: we appreciate a guy who has the will to win, but also have concerns regarding his demeanor. On the mound, it's all too easy to build an anger cycle that negatively affects performance, and a guy like Latos (and, yes, Jake Peavy as well) may be more prone to that than other pitchers. If he can harness it like Peavy (usually) does, it could be a benefit. If he is unable to control himself he will have difficulty controlling his pitches. And, again, there are the usual caveats of TINSTAAP (There Is No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect). A guy with mechanics like his (smooth opening motion sliding into a violent finish with a somewhat weak front side) may be more prone to injury; his height may be a disadvantage (some posit that a larger pitcher has difficult repeating deliveries, something that plagued Randy Johnson a bit early in his career). Also, his offspeed stuff doesn't complement his fastball; at 21 years of age, however, FF is willing to acknowledge that he has time to work on it.

So what can be gleaned from Latos' 75 pitch outing? Aside from the fact that the Padres will handle his development very carefully (he was on a strict pitch count limit), we got to see Latos' excellent location -- the only big mistake was a fastball that Ian Stewart pound 430 feet for a solo HR. He wasn't afraid to challenge hitters with his fastball -- out of the 75 pitches, about 60 were fastballs -- and he was able to generate strikeouts from that pitch. He struggled a bit putting hitters away, and his offspeed stuff wasn't sharp. But this is a guy who has thrown all of 50 innings above high-A ball, has a powerful fastball, and is still just 21 years old.

Finally, Padres seem to be handling the kid with kid gloves, in the minors as well as the majors. After all, if a guy is throwing lots of innings in the minors, it stresses his arm as much as at higher levels (see the article referenced in the above TINSTAAP link). With the Padres effectively playin for 2010 and beyond, they might as well give Latos an opportunity to introduce himself to major league hitters. If only because they'll be seeing more of him than they'd like very soon.

Peavy Nixed Deal To ChiSox

2009-05-21T17:12:00.000-07:00

Jake Peavy will remain in San Diego, for now. The reason that the former Cy Young winner is not packing his bags for a foursome of prospects is that Kevin Towers and the Padres continue to give up their leverage in order to sign players to a more discounted deal by giving players the power of a full no trade clause. Jake Peavy has stated time and again that he has a strong preference to stay in the National League. He, as FF would have, used his power to dictate his destination. FF urges fans not to be upset with Peavy; when he signed a discounted deal to stay in San Diego he gave up the right of free agency thus his right to decide where to sign. This clause was earned by Peavy, just should not be given away by the Padres front office.

All Padres fans remember the multiple deals that Phil Nevin turned down to stay in SD (one to the Reds that would have brought Ken Griffey, Jr, and another to Baltimore) as well as Brian Giles last season to Boston. This continuously come back to bite the Padres and is frustrating for the organization and the fans.

Foxsports Ken Rosenthal agrees with FF.

Tony Gywnn Jr A Padre

2009-05-21T12:29:00.000-07:00

Amid all the Jake Peavy to the Chicago White Sox rumors on Thursday the Friars did pull the trigger to bring Tony Gywnn Jr to San Diego in exchange for Jody Gerut. While FF has enjoyed watching Jody Gerut resurrect his career in a Padres uniform we are excited to have the son of Mr Padre roaming the spacious outfield in Petco Park (19 Tony Gywnn Ave)! FF wrote about the possibility of bringing Gywnn Jr in at the beginning of the season, but we were about 45 days early.

Text Chat: May 19, 2009

2009-05-19T21:18:00.000-07:00

1st Inning:
Scott: Scotty top tank
Ryan: Nice
Scott: Hundley HR in second straight ab... walk off and then this to straight away CF
Scott: Go team

7th Inning:
Ryan: That last pitch - WOW
Scott: Not watching... what happened?
Scott: Was it the Burke guy? He looks solid, goes right after people
Ryan: It looked like a screwball (probably a changeup). Seriously, rewind it. It is that worth it.
Scott: Wow, nice catch by Lewis... not amazing - but nice
Scott: I will after this half inning...
Ryan: Indeed.
Scott: Pitch around Hairston to get to AGone? Idiot

9th Inning:
Ryan: I hate to sound like Dad, but Heath is overdue for a less than steller outing
Scott: I can't wait for you to sound like him when you say 'O-V-E-R'
Ryan: O-V-E-R.

Draft Day Decision

2009-05-14T18:17:00.000-07:00

The Padres own the 3rd overall pick in this June's draft and mlbtraderumors.com shuffles through a few possibilities to help rebuild the Friars farm system. A silver lining after another road loss (now at 11 straight) is that the Padres are posturing for a very high pick in the 2010 draft as well...

SIGH

2009-05-13T21:27:00.000-07:00

With the exception of the phenomenal talent of Adrian Gonzalez this team is unbearable to watch.

The End

Running Wild on Chris Young

2009-05-04T09:00:00.000-07:00

This topic has been covered extensively elsewhere (most notably on FanGraphs.com: "Chris Young's fatal flaw"). Dave Cameron neatly sums up his article: "[q]uite simply, Young is worse at holding runners than anyone else in baseball is at any other skill."

Of course, many great pitchers have been notoriously poor at holding runners. Greg Maddux, for his career, was stolen against at a 76.3% rate (league average usually varies between about 68-72%). Chris Young, for his career, is 91% (and 100% last year and so far this season). Statistical analyses show that the "break-even" point for steals sits around 75%, implying that teams generally deploy a sub-optimal stolen base strategy.

Back to Young. On April 27, the Rockies went 8-8 in stolen bases in Young's 3 innings. Dexter Fowler went 5-5. Watching the start, it was clear that Young wouldn't have lasted long, with or without the stolen bases. However, we can estimate exactly how many runs he cost the Padres during that start.

To start, familiarize yourself with the run expectancy matrix (data is from 1999-2002, but other studies have shown that these rates are acceptable for the modern era). Basically, this is MLB-wide data showing how many runs a team can expect to score in a general runners-out situation. There are more specific systems available that customize these on a team-by-team basis, but these are more difficult to use, and do not provide a significantly greater amount of accuracy.

Using the matrix linked above, we look at each stolen base against Young on his 27 April start. Additionally, I have pulled film from MLB.tv to look at each base and give a rough estimation of the Nick Hundley's chance at preventing the theft. I'll run through the first 2 stolen bases then will present the summary.

SB #1: Fowler on 1B, steals 2B, 0 out. With 0 out, runner on 1st, a team can expect to score .953 runs. With 0 out, runner on 2nd, that becomes 1.189 runs; essentially, the stolen base is "worth" the difference, or .236 runs.
SB #2 and #3: This was a double-steal. Fowler stole 3rd while Spilboroghs stole 2nd. 1st and 2nd with 0 outs expects 1.573 runs; 2nd and 3rd with 0 out expects 2.052 runs, a difference of .479 runs.

Summary data for all 8 SB against Chris Young: the expected cost was 1.61 runs. Of course, several times the Rockies would've scored those runs with or without the stolen bases, but it's fair to say that Young likely cost himself between 1-2 runs because of the 8 SB against him. In reviewing video, Hundley had no chance at 4 of the stolen bases. Twice he dropped the pitch, and twice could have gotten the runner with a perfect throw. I think it's fair to lay most of the blame at Young's feet: several times, the runners had a head start before C.Y. started his motion!

I have two thoughts to this: first, stolen bases generally aren't worth that much. The most valuable situation in this example (excluding double steals) was Fowler's 1 out steal of third; it "earned" the Rockies about .293 runs. Even in an extreme example, 8SB in 3IP only cost (at most) 2 runs. Secondly, I think that Young is so outrageously bad at holding runners, that an event with such a small effect on runs (the stolen base) will force him to focus on something other than pitching to the hitter.

For last season, runners were a perfect 44-44 in stolen bases against Chris Young. Assuming that the overall weighted run expectancy for the stolen base is about .20 (as has been shown elsewhere), Young cost himself almost 10 runs last year in stolen bases. 10 runs is about equal to 1 win; Young's value in 2007 (remember, 2008 was marred by horrific injuries) was about 4.5 wins. This suggests that Young gives away about a quarter of his positive value simply because he's unable to hold a runner.

For several years now, the Padres defense against the running game has been an absolute joke. Opposing teams were 150-176 (85.2%) in 2006, 189-209 (90.4%) in 2007, 268-208 (81.5%) in 2008, and are 25-29 this year (86.2%). Fortunately, opponents haven't yet begun to steal as much as they should against the Pads, but the question remains: how long will it take other teams to follow Clint Hurdle's lead and give the entire team the green light? The Padres are costing themselves 2-5 wins per year by not defending against the stolen base at a league average rate. FF wonders how long the Padres can afford to get dismal offensive as well as defensive production coming out of the catcher's spot...

Giles Rests, Friar Bats Follow Suit

2009-05-03T06:14:00.000-07:00

Harry "Bud" Black finally gave Brian Giles most of the night off (who did earn a walk in the 8th, staying the game after pinch hitting), giving a nod to rarely utilized reserve Edgar Gonzalez. Reminiscent of the 2008 campaign, Edgar made the most of his opportunity, swatting a bomb off former Padre Randy Wolf, staking the Padres to a 1 run lead in the top of the first. Unfortunately, the Padre bats were otherwise quiet, and Chris Young, who allowed one run in 7 innings vice 5 punch outs, was just short of the perfect pitcher he had to be in order to capitalize on the offense his club would contribute for the night. After giving way to Edwin Moreno and Cla Meredith, who both posted zeros on the board, Luke Gregerson allowed 3 hits and run without recording an out, giving the Dodgers their second walk off win in as many nights.

Run Bud Run?
After reaching first on a fielding error in the 4th, Edgar Gonzalez (leading off the inning while batting second) was erased attempting to swipe second base. Scott Hairston, hitting third, then fouled out for the second out, bringing up cleanup hitter Adrian Gonzelez with nobody on base. FF understands that a struggling team needs to shake things up at times to score a few runs, but we'd also love to see a station-to-station approach with the Adrian, who is the only hitter on the team that strikes consistent fear in opposing pitchers. It may very well be that this was a calculated approach with Adrian facing a lefty in Wolf, but he is still the club's finest, most consistent batting threat.

Lead Off Out

2009-05-01T08:23:00.000-07:00

Padres RF, Brian Giles, is absolutely killing the Padres lineup by not getting on base in front of Adrian Gonzalez. A Gon broke his own team record by pounding 9 (previously 7) homers in the season's first month in the clean-up spot in the order. Adrain produced more than just power he hit at an impressive .333 clip and only drove in 20 runs. FF has placed blame on Giles, and will continue doing so until he is hitting above the Mendoza line. FF has been waiting for Giles to (at the very least) be moved from the 3 hole, and manager Bud Black finally cooperated...but moved him to lead off! Wow, way to "jump-start" the offense by getting Giles more AB's. FF understands that Giles has had a long and fruitful MLB career, but he no longer deserves to play every day at this very low level. He is just shy of 100 at bats in '09 and he has 2 extra base hits, FF remains underwhelmed with Giles, and Black.

FF will start to follow the Giles-Mendoza watch as we enter the 2nd month of the season.

FF continues to question Bud Black's bullpen usage, but that rant will have to come at a future date.

Gaudin & His Goatee Get A Go

2009-04-28T10:33:00.001-07:00

The recently signed hurler, Chad Gaudin, has been called up to replace the injured Shawn Hill in the Padres rotation. Gaudin was released by the Chicago Cubs in the spring after failing to make the squad in a bullpen role. The Padres were able to persuade the right handed pitcher by giving him the opportunity to start. Guadin was a part of the Oakland/ Chicago trade last summer. FF is hoping that some new blood will re energize the Padres, who are in the midst of losing 6 of the their last 7 contests. The Friars DFA'd Eulogio De La Cruz to make room on the 25 man roster for the man with the goatee.

Hill Headed To DL

2009-04-25T23:24:00.000-07:00

After struggling trough two innings in San Diego's 10-1 throttling by the Pirates the Padres 5th starter Shawn Hill will be headed to the DL with some bicep issues. The Padres have already lost Baek, and Walter Silva. The back of the rotation was a question mark heading into the season, with 3 starters out of action Black will hand the ball to Geer a few more times, and possibly Wade Lablanc will be on his way from Portland to join the Friars rotation.

Bolts Speaking English

2009-04-25T15:38:00.000-07:00

The San Diego Chargers held the 16th pick in Saturday's NFL draft and were rumored to do everything from draft another running back to trade down to acquire additional picks. When all was said and done AJ Smith selected an outside linebacker from Norther Illinois University Larry English. Although he is not one of the (over) highly touted LB's from nearby USC, English was a 3 time first team ALL MAC selection and seems to be just as good of a person of the field as he is on. FF gives the Chargers front office the benefit of the doubt when it comes to finding linebackers who can make an impact in their 3-4 defense.

The Giles Hole

2009-04-24T14:38:00.000-07:00

Although the Padres are in the middle of a season-long 3 game skid, the team has been nothing short of a pleasant surprise 15 games into the season. Young players, like Chase Headley, and Nick Hundley are starting to look very comfortable at the plate while putting together solid at bats. The middle of the diamond has turned in solid play thanks to a tremendous platoon in center of Jody Gerut and Scotty Hairston. The new double play combination has been solid with the threesome of L Rod, injured Everth Cabrera and the epitome of a professional in David Eckstein. The catching duo of Henry Blanco and the before mentioned Hundley have been more productive than could have been predicted. The corners of the infield have been buoyed by a reversal of an early season Kouzmanoff slump and the pure beauty of Adrian Gonzalez with a bat in his hands. The only issue that FF has with any player at this point is the right fielder, Brian Giles (team stats).

Is it early in the season? Yes. Does he look like his old, consistent, self? No. Through the Pads 9-6 start the Friars highest paid position player has struggled to come up with his 10 base-knocks (just 2 extra base hits, both doubles). Maybe he has hit into bad luck, some hard outs ~ nope, a lot of pop outs and weak ground outs. Well, he is Brian Giles he must be drawing a ton of walks with a high on base percentage ~ no and no. Giles has drawn 4 base on balls while compiling 10 strike outs with an embarrassing OBP of .209.

FF has seen this scenario play out far too many times in the short season: Gerut (or Hairston) double to lead off an inning, David Eckstein lays down a beautiful bunt to sacrifice the runner to 3rd. With 1 out Giles either pops out or K's to leave Adrian to be pitched around with 2 outs. This is not something that the San Diego padres can afford to have happen, this team will be in a myriad of close games and will rely on fundamental baseball to stockpile W's. If Giles continues to "hit" in the 3 hole needs to shape up or sit (or hit) down.

FF approves this message!

Burke Back

2009-04-20T22:59:00.001-07:00

The Padres reacquired Chris Burke from the Seattle Mariners Monday night in an effort to sure up the infield depth after rookie speedster Everth Cabrera suffered a broken hand during Sunday's walk off loss in Philadelphia (FF pins the loss squarely on Bud Black's mismanagement of the bullpen, more on that later). Burke was brought in as a non roster invitee this spring and was shipped to Seattle after Cabrera won a roster spot.

Kouz Pushes Pads Off Lidge

2009-04-18T19:39:00.000-07:00

In an exciting game for both sides, the Padres pounded Phillie closer Brad Lidge in the 9th inning to take the lead for good. Jody Gerut led off the inning, which the club entered down 4-5, with a laser double (helped by former Friar Shane Victorino's moderate misplay of the ball). Some of the better situational hitting FF can remember from David Eckstein and Brian Giles plated Gerut, pulling the Padres even while simultaneously handing Lidge his first blown save a Phillie (he had amassed a 53 game streak). Adrian Gonzalez and Chase Headley followed with some patiently aggressive hitting - patient in these cases - with a pair of walks with 2 down. This brought up Kevin Kouzmanoff, who launched a bomb into left center to put the Padres up by a trio. Heath Bell then entered the game, retiring the side in order to pick up his 7th save of the post-Hoffman era (out of nine Friar wins to date).

Ring a Bell
FF was not pleased to see Bell warm up and enter the game. He threw 47 pitches in the last two days and has appeared in 7 or the Friars 12 games overall. We love having a guy that wants the ball, but we'd love to see Bud Black play things safe with Bell, especially given the 3 run lead in the game. Counting tonight's game, Bell has now thrown 67 pitches over three outings across three days. Even a burly dude that is "Wii Fit" needs a break every now and then.

Down with OCD
While we at FF generally like Black, we've long been concerned about his bullpen management, which seems to rely on a few relievers ad nauseam. See "Everyday Cla" and "The Joe Thatcher Story". We here a new installment featuring Luke Gregerson is in the works.

Bell Sinks Citi Stock

2009-04-13T21:46:00.000-07:00

FF congratulates Heath Bell on his 4th save of the young 2009 campaign to preserve a 6-5 win for the Friars on the road. While it wasn't a numerically significant achievement, Bell was fairly open about wanting to stick it to his former employer and opponent on this night, the New York Metropolitans. And he did just that, providing the perfect bookend to a game that started with Jody Gerut's leadoff home run that became the first hit recorded at Citi Field. We could recap Bell's beef with the Mets, but Padres.com did a fine job of just this, so here are some of the highlight quotes from Bell:

On the club's frequent use of his Minor League options:

It's just part of the game... Unfortunately, I was the only guy in '05 and '06 in the bullpen who had options, so I could go up and down. I remember once, Billy Wagner noticed I wasn't there one day. When I came back he asked, 'Did you leave or get sick and not show up?'

On the new grounds for his old team:

A piece of me is still here with the old Shea. I was a non-drafted free agent and they gave me a shot. There's so much to be thankful for. On the other hand, I really never felt like I got a chance. I felt wronged in some ways

Okay - we all get the point. The moral of this story is simple: if your old teams treats you bad, simply retire the side for a save against them on opening day in their brand new ballpark. Good for you Heath - you've made FF proud.

Pads Continue To Tinker

2009-04-11T22:51:00.001-07:00

The first place San Diego Padres (how many time will we be able to report that) have signed Chicago Cubs castoff Chad Gaudin to a minor league deal. The Cubs released the 26 year old righty after a tough spring in the hot, thin Cactus League air. The Padres will only be on the hook for $400K of his $2 million contract (the Cubs will eat the remaining $1.6M). This is a classic Kevin Towers deal where he is buying low; however Guadin seems to have more upside than Friday's waiver wire acquisition of Luis Perdomo, a rule five draftee from the San Francisco Giants. The Padres seem to provide Gaudin with the best opportunity to pitch at the major league level quickly. FF is cautiously optimistic regarding one of the two recent signings...we'll let you, our loyal readers, read between the lines!

Will The Real Scott Hairston Please Standup?

2009-04-11T20:17:00.000-07:00

The Scott Hairston dichotomy is one of our real frustrations. He has games where he is nothing short of a world-beater, like Friday night's performance where he robbed a go-ahead homer in the top half of the 8th inning, then hits a 3 run bomb of his own to put the club up for good. Then he has other nights where he runs the bases poorly and looks lost at the plate. We'd love to see Hairston harness his inner Steve Finley, but we've jumped on the Scotty H bandwagon too many times to do it again without prolonged success (i.e., more than a consecutive week of solid play). Imagine if one could combine the omnipresent heady play of David Eckstein with the raw potential of Hairston...

Simon And...Garfinkel?

2009-04-07T22:37:00.000-07:00

Following the Padres first win of the 2009 season the Padres are set to announce the addition of Tom Garfinkel as president and chief operating officer of the club. This move was somewhat expected as Garfinkel held a similar position with the Arizona Diamondbacks with new owner-in-waiting Jeffrey Moorad.

Game Notes:

In the Friars 4-2 victory Tuesday night FF was impressed with the over powering fastball that propelled Heath Bell to striking out the side in a scoreless 9th to earn the first save in as many chances in the post Trevor era.

FF is concerned with the amount of free passes given up by the bullpen in 3 scoreless innings: 2 issued by a visibly nervous Edwin Moreno in his MLB debut, and one by Bell to bring the tying run to the plate in the 9th. The frames were blank but the Pads were playing with fire.

Duaner Sanchez tossed a perfect 8th in his Friar debut.

Friar Fashion Marks:

In the first, and hopefully last, installment of FF Fashion question marks we would like to call into question the hair of 2008 NL Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum . FF is wondering if the addition of Randy Johnson to the Giants has brought about the silly looking long locks of the talented young starter.

FF Welcomes a New Contributor

2009-04-04T16:55:00.001-07:00

FF is please to announce that we have a new contributor - Travis. Hailing from less than a mile of the childhood home of the FF founding fathers in Point Loma, Travis is a lifelong Friar fan who has first hand baseball experience with both Ryan and Scott. All three current contributors (as well as former contributor Shane) learned to play ball the right way (that is in fact Coach Hill's way) with the Green Team in the now defunct Peninsula Pony League. We are confident that you'll find his contributions to be inline with your expectations of FF content. Welcome aboard!

GM = General Misconception?

2009-04-04T11:26:00.000-07:00

Jeff Moorad has reportedly moved to demystify any general misconceptions surrounding the reporting and decision making structure within the front office. As we noted in December, the Friar front office was rumored to have a bizarre reporting structure where GM Kevin Towers had to get his baseball operation moves cleared by former CEO Sandy Alderson's deputy, Paul DePodesta. This rumor had a number of variations, making it difficult to know the real story. Regardless, it remains clear that front office gossip is a negative development, possibly impacting the perception of the club as a destination for players in the process. New CEO and partial owner Jeff Moorad has clarified the situation, according to the U-T, altering the front office organizational structure to have DePodesta report to Towers. While the article contains a number of interesting quotes, all seemingly aimed at portraying the story as a non-issue, we can't help but read into the following statements by Towers:

“If anything, it'll be good for all of us... I doubt there was really any truth to Paul nixing deals. Sandy always gave me full autonomy. Did Paul have the authority to maybe squash a deal or maybe talk Sandy out of it? I doubt that ever happened. I think from a perception standpoint, it put all of us in an uncomfortable situation.

and

“If anything... it should help Paul in the way of fitting in with everybody else. Even if there was zero truth, maybe what people speculated (about who was making decisions), I don't think there will be that now.

Hmmm... this doesn't exactly leave the impression that Towers felt like he was fully in charge of baseball operations. Kudos to DePodesta for being classy about the whole thing, saying:

“Really, for all practical purposes, nothing really changes for me. I've always deferred to Kevin on baseball issues and always felt I reported to Kevin on baseball issues. I did some non-baseball work for Sandy, which is the primary reason I reported to him.”

FF thinks Moorad made the right decision here. One less thing to focus on off the field makes the club stronger.

Bush League

2009-04-03T18:46:00.000-07:00

Former 1st overall pick, Matt Bush, has been released after a short stay in the Toronto Blue Jays organization due to - brace yourself - “failing to comply with team guidelines that were set out for him". Bush struggled as an infielder, hitter, and human being while in the San Diego system. He was shifted to the mound last season and showed promise before an arm injury cut his season short. The Padres traded him after an off the field incident became the straw that broke the Friars back. FF thinks the former Mission Bay High star is getting what he deserves. He seems to be a bad seed.

Gwynn Again?

2009-04-02T21:25:00.000-07:00

It appears that Tony Gwynn Jr is on the outside looking in with the Milwaukee Brewers and out of minor league options. This means that he would have be placed on waivers available for the rest of MLB. FF wonders if KT and the Friars would take a flier on the son of Mr Padre? The positive aspects of Jr's game include above average speed (seen first hand by Padre faithful on his infamous 2 out, 2 strike triple down the right field line in 2007 that essentially kept the Pads out of the playoffs), and a swing that has his fathers finger print all over it. The problem is that his name is Tony Gwynn; and he is not a future Hall Of Fame player, he has the look of a future 4th outfielder.

The Padres are entering a season without fan favorite Trevor Hoffman for the first time in over a decade, and without much hope of playing games with much importance beyond July. Will Tony Gwynn Jr put people in the seats at 19 Tony Gwynn Drive, most likely. Being out of options would mean that room on the Padres roster would have to be made, although Jr is slender the Frairs may not have room. The Padres major league outfield roster is set with Jody Gerut in center flanked by top prospect Chase Headley in left and an aging Brian Giles in right. Scott Hairston will get his at bats late in games (although new owner/CEO, Jeffrey Morrad, has already traded Hairston once in his career). FF assumes that Drew Macias and Will Venable would be ahead of Gwynn Jr down in Portland.

With all that said FF would love to see Gwynn given a chance to grow into a solid major league player in a stadium with a statue of his father. If the Padres and Gwynn Jr find themselves together we all need to realize that he will not produce to the level of his father; but his speed and name sure would look good at 19 Tony Gwynn Drive!

*** UPDATE ***

Tony Gwynn Jr has cleared waivers and has accepted his demotion to the Brewers Triple A affiliate. FF is surprised that zero organizations were willing to take a shot on the 26 year old center fielder, especially considering he would have only cost $20,000. FF wishes Little T the best of luck, and we hope to see him back in the bigs sooner rather than later.

Change We Can Believe In

2009-03-28T07:48:00.000-07:00

For a community that has consistently been promised change over the years, we here at FF hope that we finally have some change we can believe in. This is, of course, a loaded statement, what with the series of disappointing regimes we have faced over the years. A quick stroll through memory lane doesn't bode well for the nascent reign of Jeff Moorad, the new Padre co-owner/CEO:

The Krocs had their ups (Ray) and downs (Joan)

Tom Werner is synonymous "The Fire Sale I"

John Moores has had his moments, but personal issues have clearly impacted the team

Then again, Moorad is sending all the right signals so far:

According the Union-Tribune, he chimed in on the possibility of moving Peavy this season to meet payroll with:
It would be premature for me to say what is going to happen. The goal is to build this for the long term. I don't know how that impacts the Peavy situation. But we're going to do whatever we can to improve the team.
Sure, this doesn't say that they will keep Peavy, but it also seems to eliminate the probability of moving him at fire sale prices. Let's be real, by not moving him this offseason, the club was put in a position where Peavy's value declined on a daily basis. Every club knew Moores couldn't afford Peavy on his own, and the club would become disparate to move him at some point. The idea of someone over paying for him when the club doesn't have the ability to just stay the course is ludicrous.

Moorad seems poised to draft based on talent over affordability. Also from the U-T article previously referenced:
We'll look at the minor league system. There have been some drafting challenges. I'm looking forward to drafting near the top ... in that aspect, we'll go in the right direction.
The Chargers used to engage in draft trickery during the Bobby Beathard era. It didn't work for the Bolts, and it surely hasn't worked for the Padres. The good news here is that Moorad seems to have an AJ Smith vibe toward the draft. This can only be a positive move. Even (former?) nemesis of Friar managament Scott Boras seems to agree.

According to ESPN, Moorad has signaled that "...his goal is to compete with a payroll of $70 million to $80 million." Hallelujah.

Multiple reports indicate that Moorad is not in this to make a quick profit. He gives the impression that he wants to right the ship, then let market forces provide the profit. This is a stark contrast to what Friar fans have become accustomed to - no more Blue Light specials.

Given the fragile state of the economy, funding the purchase was difficult without a source of credit, but Moorad and company were creative, and found a model leveraged in the NFL as a template to stretch the sale out over time. Moores must be credited here as well, as he has essentially agreed to become Moorad's line of credit.

Sure, Moorad's tenure is still a giant unknown. But we have to be encouraged that his brand of change is thus far devoid of double talk, shortsightedness, outright inaccuracies, or anything else we've all become used to. A little change that we can actually believe in would be a nice.