From Capn's Pen

Live blog of The Voice's first quarterfinal round

2011-06-06T10:05:00.001-07:00

<a href="http://www.coveritlive.com/mobile.php/option=com_mobile/task=viewaltcast/altcast_code=a4d1a231e4" >The Voice: Quarterfinal Round 1</a>

The Voice: Judges use Battle Rounds to choose a strong Top 16

2011-06-03T07:22:00.001-07:00

Please check us out at our new blog location: From the Capn's Pen @ Wordpress.

Tenth Idol result to be a carbon copy of last year's finale

2011-05-24T23:13:00.000-07:00

Read this post at our new location on WordPress:

From the Capn's Pen

American Idol final more of a coronation than a contest

2011-05-24T11:52:00.000-07:00

Please read this article at our new site:

From the Capn's Pen at WordPress

American Idol set to crown weakest-ever champion

2011-05-19T17:02:00.001-07:00

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http://fromthecapnspen.wordpress.com/2011/05/19/american-idol-set-to-crown-weakest-ever-champion/

Lieber and Stoller night (aka the night American Idol lost me as a fan)

2011-05-13T12:47:00.001-07:00

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http://fromthecapnspen.wordpress.com/2011/05/12/lieber-and-stoller-night-aka-the-night-american-idol-lost-me-as-a-fan/

Moving to Wordpress

2011-05-13T12:41:00.000-07:00

Due to the recent (and very public) problems experienced by Blogger.com, we are moving our American Idol blog to WordPress. The new address is:

http://fromthecapnspen.wordpress.com

We hope you will continue to follow us there as we follow the American Idol season to its conclusion, as well as blogging about shows like The Voice and X-Factor. We are also working on adding a new feature: Netflix movie reviews. This feature would focus on reviews of titles available for instant viewing through Netflix.

Thank you for your loyalty to us at our Blogger site. We look forward to seeing you at the new and improved WordPress site!

(As always, our old posts will remain available on this site, but we are also importing them into the new site.)

UPDATED ODDS: James is solid, Haley moving up; Lauren becomes vulnerable

2011-05-08T16:55:00.000-07:00

At long last, American Idol didn't give us a surprise Season 10 elimination. After watching Pia Toscano, Stefano Langone and Casey Abrams hit the bricks before their time, much-maligned Jacob Lusk finally got his AI pink slip. That leaves a very solid Final Four, though you might be surprised to find out who is most likely to win and who might be in line to go home next.

By all accounts, this is already a Scotty-James finale (in that order). Vegas oddsmakers have pretty much already booked that date. The only possible wrinkle in that set-up was a potential Lauren Alaina party-crashing, but now a new possibility is at hand: a James-Haley finale. The odds still favor Scotty reaching the Top 2, but Haley's string of strong performances has her gaining ground every day.

At present, Haley is still a longshot to reach the finale, but she now has a greater chance of doing that than does Lauren. Of course, that may change if Haley gets bumped to the opening slot in the Final Four. In the past two weeks, Haley has been favored with the closing spot; she's do for a move to the front of the show. However, no slot is immune to elimination in the Final Four. In Seasons 1 and 2, the opening performer was booted, but in the seven seasons since, the other three slots have dominated the eliminations (2nd, four times; 3rd, twice; 4th, once).

Though I'd love to be able to predict a James-Haley finale, at this point, anything other than a James-Scotty finale would be a huge shock. That being said, neither one among the best two voices in Season 10, which is why Idol is losing all remaining shreds of credibility. The show may continue to exist for grandmas and preteens, but legions of viewers are likely to dump the show after this season concludes. The jury's out on yours truly, but I will be following The Voice and X-Factor very closely in their respective first seasons.

Following are my updated odds for the Final Four for winning and elimination. Let us know what you think about these rankings and about this week's eliminations. Do you agree? Did Casey deserve to go home? And remember to follow this blog on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/capnpen. Also be sure to follow our Facebook group, American Idol Update.

Final Four (Odds to Win)

1. James Durbin (7/4)

2. Scotty McCreery (2/1)

3. Haley Reinhart (19/4)

4. Lauren Alaina (23/4)

Final Four (Odds to Go)

1. Lauren Alaina (2/1)

2. Haley Reinhart (3/1)

3. Scotty McCreery (4/1)

4. James Durbin (17/4)

American Idol Top 5: Haley rules; Jacob, judges fall flat

2011-05-05T12:42:00.000-07:00

This review is a little late, and it's going to be a bit abbreviated. But frankly, a lot of my interest in American Idol is waning, and I'm hearing that from a lot of my friends and family, too. After a promising start of the post-Simon Cowell era, Idol has managed to kill a lot of the good will that fans have had toward the show. I've promised myself and my readers that I'll stick with it until the end of Season 10, but after that I'm not so sure. By next year, there will be other options and perhaps different loyalties for many fans. But for now, we have the Top 5 on Idol that will tonight be reduced to a Final Four. Last night's show had some high and low moments, but if you listened only to the judges, you'd get a different perspective than the one I'm about to present

Yes, I'm talking about Scotty McCreery, the ever-smiling, lovable country crooner who, unlike DeWyze, hits the notes he's aiming at. Of course, that's usually because the notes are so easily within his range, and within the range of about 1 million other American singers. Just on a whim, I tried to duplicate his performance in the Top 6; my family is a bit biased, but they said that I at least did it as well as he did.

(For the record, I do sing, and I do it in more than the shower. I was a first tenor in my college chorale, and I have range of between three and four octaves. One of the reason that I love to blog Idol is that I get to vicariously live my own dreams by watching others do it in real life. Now in my early 40s, I missed out on the American Idol era by a few years. Guys like Jacob, Stefano, Casey and James, who are insanely talented and who can do things vocally that I only dream about, have my everlasting respect. Guys like Scotty who I can stick with in my sleep frustrate the hell out of me because I know that their popularity is much more about eyes, dimples and smiles than about "the voice." I'm an above-average singer, but I can't see myself as a recording artist. The same follows for other people who are similarly above-average, but not truly "elite." See my post about Rebecca Black for more confirmation about this...)

If you're going to choose a song for the Idol audience, which if they're like many Americans don't even know who Carole King is, you might want to choose one they've had a chance of hearing before. That didn't happen with a few of tonight's Idols.

2) Enough of Randy insisting on offering criticism of Haley, even when it's clear that she's raised the bar with her performance. Tonight, after she nailed her number, Randy just had to inject the only negative steered in her direction: "I wasn't wild about the first part of the song." Great Randy. Now I see exactly who wants to get rid of all the women and have a guys' only party on the show. Careful, big guy. People might start to talk...

3) What was up with Jacob's outfit? I'm afraid to go to sleep tonight for fear of nightmares... OK, on with the reviews...

James Durbin
Now: "Closer to the Edge," by 30 Seconds to Mars.
Then: "Without You," by Badfinger.
First things first: James is without a doubt the season's best performer. Note the emphasis on "performer" with no mention of "singer." James can reach notes most people only dream about, and he does a great job of energizing a crowd. But too often, the actual notes he's aiming for aren't the ones he actually hits. Such was the case in both songs tonight (and much moreso in "Without You"). Unfortunately, the judges got caught up so much in the performance that they decided that the vocals weren't all that important. Most of James' so-called critiques focused on things other than singing, including "risk-taking" and "emotion." (Somehow that "risk" element was lost on a later contestant. More on that...) "Closer to the Edge" is a little-known song that found James spending most of his time high-fiving the crowd. It was fun, but not really great. In "Without You," James was completely overwhelmed by his emotions and his resulting vocals were a train wreck. The judges told us that fans would be captivated by his vulnerability. Uh, really? Horribly off-pitch singing is never captivating, no matter how sweet the moment is. Yes, James is at the top of this year's heap, and it really is his show to lose. Mark it down, he'll be in the finale. But he's not even close to this year's best singer. (7.5/10; 6.5/10)

Jacob Lusk
Now: "No Air" by Jordin Sparks and Chris Brown
Then: "Love Hurts" by the Everly Brothers
More Kool Aid from the judges. If Jacob is telling us what kind of artist he'd like to be, I suppose he's telling us that he aspires to be an off-pitch version of Jordin Sparks. Even the backup vocals in this number were cringe-worthy. Yet instead of calling it the mess that it truly was, Randy responded with tempered comparisons to Chris Brown and Usher. Wow, who saw that one coming? For his follow-up, Jacob gave us the Everly Brothers' "Love Hurts." (The Everly Brothers? Really? Yes, the duo recorded this in 1960, 15 years before Nazareth got their hands on it.) This one started out much more enjoyably until Jacob felt the need to take it away from sensitive and into raw emotion and pain. Jacob summed it up for us with a stream of "It hurts, it hurts, it hurts." Yes, Jacob, it does. Tonight, I think we'll find out that the audience largely agrees, even if the judges don't. (6.5/10; 7/10)

Lauren Alaina

Now: "Flat on the Floor" by Carrie Underwood

Then: "Unchained Melody" by the Righteous Brothers

Lauren wins the award for "most adorable," but she's really lacking in what it takes to truly be an American Idol. This girl really just doesn't take risks, which might be why she and Scotty do so well on duets. (More about him next...) Lauren's vibe is definitely country, so "Flat on the Floor" was a solid choice, even if it was an album-only cut from Carrie's Carnival Ride CD. Lauren did an admirable job with it, and it was entertaining, but not to the level that you'd phone your friends to tell them what an amazing singer she was. On "Unchained Melody" she had a real chance to impress, and for much of the song I found myself thinking that she never looked prettier. But toward the end, I was extremely disappointed when she took the literal low road and copped out on the glory note in the phrase "I need your love." I needed that note to let me know that Lauren was really "in it to win it." (Seriously, if I hear Randy say that again, I may have to stab something in the eye with a fork.) Lauren's too afraid to win it, and the sad thing is, she doesn't have to be. (7.5/10; 8/10)

Scotty McCreery

Now: "Gone" by Montgomery Gentry

Then: "Always on My Mind" by Brenda Lee

For the first time in a long time, Scotty gave usa glimpse of someone who might really have more than a one-album career in his post-Idol life. His performance of "Gone" was a very enjoyable and fun jaunt with an upbeat tune that had more than a one-octave range. The only thing that could have made it more viewable is if this kid could get the "creepy" out of his eye expressions. Sadly, he followed that with the Elvis Presley version of "Always on My Mind," taking his act back to his comfort-zone of six or seven notes, which the judges almost killed themselves to applaud. It wasn't bad, but it was virtually lifeless and devoid of the actual emotion that the lyrics demand, and that might escape a 16-year-old like Scotty: "And maybe I didn't hold you/ All those lonely, lonely times/ And I guess I never told you/ I'm so happy that you're mine." I'm guessing that Scotty's fans are too ravenous in their desire to promote him that such nuances won't matter much. (8.5/10; 7.5/10)

Haley Reinhart
Now: "You and I" by Lady Gaga
Then: "House of the Rising Sun" by the Animals
If ever there's been evidence of conspiracy theory on American Idol, it was last night when J-Lo and Randy tore into Haley for her performance of Lady Gaga's "You and I." After giving rave reviews for fun and off-pitch from James and painful and off-pitch from Jacob, these two cracked on Haley for taking too much of a risk with an unknown song. Wait, didn't they applaud James for taking a risk with his 30 Seconds to Mars number? Did they slam Lauren for doing a Carrie Underwood album-only cut? Oh, I guess those sorts of critiques are only reserved for the "girl we meant to get rid of weeks ago." For those of you who tend to believe the judges, this time only Steven got it right. Haley gave a lights-out performance of a song that she could have originated. Like James, she nailed the performance angle, starting in a sultry, lounging position and finishing by working the crowd at center stage. But better than James or any other, she nailed the vocals by hitting every note and putting her own touches on it. But it was only the second-best moment of the night ... upstaged only by her performance of "House of the Rising Sun." Truthfully, I thought this was a bad choice. I'd have paid money to hear her sing something like "One Less Bell to Answer." I was wrong. This number was the best of this season, and would rank among the best in almost any season. Starting acapella with smoke rising around her, Haley worked every note with highs, lows and perfect expression. It was an Idol moment to rank among all Idol moments. And it was something that not even J-Lo or Randy could ignore for its raw greatness. Sadly, they've cast too much doubt on Haley for most of the season for her to be a contender at this point. (9/10; 9.5/10)

Tonight's Rankings

1) Haley Reinhart #2 (9.5)

2) Haley Reinhart #1 (9)

3) Scotty McCreery #1 (8.5)

4) Lauren Alaina #2 (8)

5) Lauren Alaina #1 (7.5)

6) James Durbin #1 (7.5)

7) Scotty McCreery #2 (7.5)

8) Jacob Lusk #2 (7)

9) Jacob Lusk #1 (6.5)

10) James Durbin #2 (6.5)

Top 5 (Odds to Win)

1. James Durbin (7/4)

2. Scotty McCreery (5/2)

3. Lauren Alaina (4/1)

4. Haley Reinhart (8/1)

5. Jacob Lusk (27/2)

Top 5 (Odds to Go)

1. Jacob Lusk (7/4)

2. Haley Reinhart (15/4)

3. Scotty McCreery (21/4)

4. Lauren Alaina (23/4)

5. James Durbin (33/4)

Bottom Two:

There's little doubt that Jacob Lusk will be on the bubble tonight, but who will be standing next to him? I think the producers throw us a curve and announce Haley Reinhart's safety early, and instead place a favorite in the Bottom Two. My pick for that dubious honor is Lauren Alaina, though it's extremely doubtful that she is anywhere near elimination.

Elimination:

For the past two weeks I've made this pick, and all of my information demands I do it for a third time in a row. Unless the moon turns to blood, Jacob Lusk will be heading for the Idol exit sign tonight.

Let me know what you think about last night's performances? Do you agree? Who was the best? Who was the worst? And who should hit the bricks in tonight's elimination show? Remember to follow this blog on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/capnpen. Also be sure to follow our Facebook group, American Idol Update.

UPDATED ODDS: Casey gets the surprise boot; Haley, Jacob survive into the Top 5

2011-04-29T09:02:00.000-07:00

The second surprise elimination of American Idol's Season 10 is much less likely to cause a stir than the first. It's not that people won't be surprised that Casey Abrams was shown the door instead of color coordination-challenged Jacob Lusk. Most of America was certain that Jacob was heading for the door. But Casey's time was drawing near, so the outrage over his elimination will be limited, if evident at all.

Don't get me wrong -- this was a surprise. On Rickey's American Idol "office pool" on Funofficepools.com, only 15 out of 560 people put most or all of their confidence in Casey going home. By comparison, 194 people gave him no chance of going home. And while Jacob is picked by four people in this group to win the show, Casey was picked by 49. But neither of those numbers is staggering. Out of 439 people in this group who made a final winner's prediction, 386 chose someone other than Jacob or Casey. Scotty's the overwhelming choice (210), followed by James (93), Lauren (79) and Haley (4).

Casey leaving now is the wrong choice, in part because someone needed to send a message that "wardrobe by Ronald McDonald" isn't acceptable on the Idol stage. (Not to mention that Jacob's chances of winning are only slightly greater than mine.) But it was clear that Casey wasn't going to win Season 10, especially since he had resumed his embrace of the Angry Idol persona. So when the Top 5 resume next Wednesday, there will be a little sadness at the void left by Casey, but not much outrage.

Still, more of the genuine interest in the show is now gone. Die-hards will stick with Idol, but with NBC's The Voice gaining momentum, you have to wonder if AI will finish the season in a blaze of glory, or just fizzle out. I've already spoken to a number of people who were previously fans and who have given up interest in American Idol altogether. Others are just watching casually. But several of those people have already said they've seen the first episode of The Voice and are switching their loyalty to that show. As for me, I can't wait for Idol to end so I can devote my undivided reality show attention to The Voice.

Following are my updated odds for the Top 5 for winning and elimination. Let us know what you think about these rankings and about this week's eliminations. Do you agree? Did Casey deserve to go home? And remember to follow this blog on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/capnpen. Also be sure to follow our Facebook group, American Idol Update.

Top 5 (Odds to Win)9

1. James Durbin (2/1)

2. Scotty McCreery (9/4)

3. Lauren Alaina (4/1)

4. Haley Reinhart (9/1)

5. Jacob Lusk (12/1)

Top 5 (Odds to Go)

1. Jacob Lusk (7/4)

2. Haley Reinhart (3/1)

3. Lauren Alaina (4/1)

4. Scotty McCreery (29/4)

5. James Durbin (12/1)

VOTE: Who do you think will win American Idol Season 10

2011-04-28T16:42:00.001-07:00

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AI Top 6: Haley and James impress, Scotty trails; voters not likely to agree

2011-04-28T07:06:00.000-07:00

In reading the outline of the new show The Voice, there's a key phrase that stands out. "The television audience will help to decide who moves on." The operative word there is "help." It's a word that American Idol has never embraced, and it's one that's likely to knock out one great vocalist after another until only the weakest one remains as the champion. OK, so that's a bit pessimistic, but what else are we left with when the Idol who continually plays it safe and fails to impress critics is constantly seen by experts and bookies as the one most likely to win. Last year that Idol was Lee DeWyze, and his victory in Season 9 came as close as anything to putting a nail in Idol's coffin. This year, the nail driver is equally likable, but he's just as handy with a hammer. (Note: Stick with me on this one. The review of the Top 6 is just ahead...)

OK, so I'm not a big fan of Scotty's. It wasn't always this way. I started out liking the kid, mostly because of his character. I think that's why he got a lot of fans early on. But for me, early impressions only last when they're followed by gobs of vocal talent. I also liked James. And Lauren. And Casey. I still do. They've sung their butts off in the past eight weeks, and I have hopes for them to advance each week. Scotty is Mr. Safe when it comes to his song choices, but the judges largely are unwilling to call him on it. Even so, I'd say right now that he's the one most likely to win Season 10 of American Idol. Given the unexpected popularity of NBC's new reality talent show The Voice, another perceived weak winner on Idol will drive more than one nail in the coffin. It may drive most of them in, especially after FOX unleashes the X-Factor in the fall.

Enough of my soapbox. You probably came here mostly for a recap of the Top 6 singing the songs of Carole King. First, a few thoughts:

1) Carole King is a prolific songwriter with a bevy of well-known hits that are recognizable in the first few lines. For example:

3) What was up with Jacob's outfit? I'm afraid to go to sleep tonight for fear of nightmares... OK, on with the reviews...

Jacob Lusk, "Oh No, Not My Baby." Let's see how many things one guy can have going against him on Idol: 1) Sing in the night's opening spot; 2) Pick a song most people have never heard; 3) Have a few pitch issues in said song; 4) Dress like a clown while singing said song; 5) Do all of those things after narrowly avoid elimination the week before. To Jacob's credit, he did uncork some fun that had been missing in the previous weeks, and he did rein in much of his craziness. Sadly, he channeled all of that into his outfit: plaid jacket, blue vest, yellow shirt and purple tie. I can only guess that he's been getting fashion tips from Paul McDonald. And regardless of how much fun he was having, the audience was spending the first minute trying to identify the song. (It was a 1964 hit for Maxine Brown that peaked at #24. You've never heard of her? Neither have most people...) Again, he sang it very well, avoided crazy emotions and had a lot of fun. But for the outfit alone, he deserves elimination. With all of the other factors involved, he guarantees it. (7/10)

Lauren Alaina, "Where You Lead." If you're keeping score, this is two straight minor hits chosen by the Idols. Carole King recorded this on her Tapestry album, but it was Barbra Streisand who actually hit the Top 40 with "Where You Lead" ... actually, she hit #40. If you've heard this song, it was probably in the opening credits of Gilmore Girls. Otherwise, you were probably trying to figure out what Lauren was singing. To her credit, he did have her best performance of the season last night, and she reached for some notes that she admitted had previously made her nervous. During the number, she even brought an audience member on stage and sang to him while sitting together on the steps. It was cute ... and distracting ... but still cute. By the end of the night, it wasn't the best but easily wasn't the worst, and it should get her through to the Top 5. (8/10)

Scotty McCreery, "You've Got a Friend." No one will accuse Scotty of picking a song no one knows. (James Taylor hit #1 with it in 1971.) In fact, no one can truly accuse him of singing a note most of America couldn't hit. Don't tell the judges, though. They were uncovering new ways of crediting Scotty of singing 1) as a tenor; 2) on the edge of his singing range; 3) perfectly. Meanwhile, I was shaking my head again at Scotty picking a song so safe that it should have come with its own life raft. If Scotty gets credit for anything, it's for not doing his crazy eyes or using the microphone as a singing flute. But his performance style is still ultra-cheesy in other ways, such as when he made the huge switch to the empassioned plea of "don't chu let'em!" in the bridge. Yes, Scotty seemed tender. And he hit every note. But that's because the range of this song is so easy that even Lee DeWyze couldn't miss the notes. Well, maybe Lee could. But it was a cop-out choice of a song, and that's what I'm expecting Scotty to do for the rest of the season -- play it safe and let his fans credit him with musical genius. Gag. (6.5/10)

James Durbin, "Will You Still Love Me Tomorrow." Idol viewers in Atlanta were deprived of this performance because our FOX 5 affiliate had to interrupt James' performance with a tornado warning. That was a shame, because it was without a doubt one of the best moments of the night. (I had to catch it afterward on YouTube.) While James often struggles with pitch and has cheese issues of his own, last night, he did exactly what you hope the Idols will do with a theme night. He picked a well-known song (which was a #1 hit for the Shirelles) and turned it into a rock-pop number that allowed him to stretch out the top end of his range while still keeping some of the original flavor of the original. It was fun, it was enjoyable and it showed that James really is one of the most creative members of this year's cast. After two little-known songs and a dose of ultra-safe, this was finally a performance that I could really cheer for. (I just wish I'd seen it live!) (8.5/10)

Casey Abrams, "Hi-De-Ho." Say it ain't so, Casey. After weeks of avoiding the "Angry Idol," Casey solidly embraced his growling, angry inner-self with his performance of this Top 20 hit for Blood, Sweat and Tears. Maybe he thought the band's name required him to perform the song with each of those elements, because he kept a perpetual grimace on his face throughout the number. For performance value, it was interesting because of all of the different instruments being played on stage. But Casey's angry style prevented me from really liking the performance, even though this is a song I've always liked. (I actually had this album as a kid.) Casey's brush with elimination, as well as his subsequent re-emergence as a contender, appears to have taught him little, if anything. The tender side of him warmed fans to his style. The Angry Idol turns us off. Tonight, he'll look elimination in the eye yet again, but Jacob will be standing in his way. This time. (6.5/10)

Haley Reinhart, "Beautiful." Haley's song choice almost sounds familiar, but it isn't. "Beautiful" was included on Carole King's Tapestry album but was never released as a single. That makes Haley's choice rather foolish, because there was no instant connection. However, Haley's performance (with some wise coaching from Kenneth "Babyface" Edmonds and Jimmy Iovine) made the connection quickly anyway because of the energy she infused into it. With Pia Toscano out of the way, Haley has emerged as the strongest female voice remaining, and maybe even the strongest voice. Her winning personality and infectious smile are shining in their own right. And then she sings the lights out of a song with a cool, jazzy style. Seriously, you should go buy both the live and studio versions of this on iTunes right now. Now for the bad news. America doesn't care. Haley's fan base isn't big enough to keep her out of the Bottom Three, and she is at risk for elimination again, in spite of the best performance of the night. Haley rocked the house but will be seated in the Bedpans of Doom again, while Scotty will yet again get easy safety. There's simply no justice in Idol-land. (9/10)

Tonight's Rankings

1) Haley Reinhart (9)

2) James Durbin (8.5)

3) Lauren Alaina (8)

4) Jacob Lusk (7)

5) Casey Abrams (6.5)

6) Scotty McCreery (6.5)

Top 6 (Odds to Win)

1. (tie) James Durbin (5/2)

1. (tie) Scotty McCreery (5/2)

3. Lauren Alaina (9/2)

4. Casey Abrams (8/1)

5. Haley Reinhart (11/1)

6. Jacob Lusk (25/2)

Top 6 (Odds to Go)

1. Jacob Lusk (5/2)

2. Haley Reinhart (7/2)

3. Casey Abrams (15/4)

4. Lauren Alaina (11/2)

5. Scotty McCreery (19/2)

7. James Durbin (15/1)

Bottom Three:

Jacob Lusk threw caution to the wind tonight with her performance and his outfit. He's the easiest inclusion in this group. Haley Reinhart gave the performance of the night, but she'll wind up here anyway. Casey Abrams and his Angry Idol act will round out the trio.

Elimination:

There's no Stefano or Paul to keep him safe any longer. After months of over-emoting on the Idol stage, Jacob Lusk will make his curtain call tonight.

"The Voice" one-ups Idol at its own game

2011-04-27T15:09:00.000-07:00

We've given it ever chance. We really have. For 10 years, we've devoted countless hours to American Idol and its pursuit of the "next great American singer." We've watched as the great (Kelly Clarkson and Carrie Underwood), the good (Jordin Sparks and David Cook), the so-so (Fantasia and Taylor Hicks) and the ugly (Lee DeWyze) were crowned as America's next singing "idol." And in recent years, we've watched the show disintegrate into a popularity contest controlled by teenage girls and their mothers.

When Idol emerged nine years ago, it was the only game in town. It was the first of its kind, a reality singing competition that was part variety show and part Survivor where the weakest singer was presumably "voted off the island." But even in the first season, it became clear that "crowd favorites" like Nikki McKibbin were capable of outlasting far superior performers like Tamyra Gray. So over the years, the "pursuit of the next great singer" has more often been the "wait for the next great singer to get eliminated early and not win American Idol." We've lost amazing talent like Trenyce, Jennifer Hudson, Constantine Maroulis, Chris Daughtry, Melinda Doolittle, and in this season, Pia Toscano (who popped up this week singing on Dancing With the Stars).

But this year, Idol is no longer the only game in town. In fact, as of last night, it's not even the best game in town. We have no way of knowing how good Bravo's Going Platinum or FOX's X-Factor will be when they debut later this year. But we do have some idea about the potential of NBC's The Voice, which opened last night in the 9 p.m. time slot. For two hours, it was everything we have hoped that Idol would be: an entertaining search for the next great voice. Yes, there are back stories. And yes, the producers' fingerprints are evident in various aspect of the show. But there is so much to cheer for in The Voice that these foregone reality show conclusions aren't such a big deal.

First, there are the "coaches," who are so-dubbed because their job will ultimately be to coach and work with the teams of singers that they assemble. In the first round, the coaches start with their backs to the singers and turn around only if they're interested in working with them after hearing some of their performance. (After the performance, all of the coaches chairs turn with or without them pushing the "I Want You" button.) If more than one coach turns, they begin to lobby the contestant in hopes of winning them to their team.

In the next round, each coach will have a "battle round" where they narrow their teams of eight down to four. Those final 16 singers will then advance to the finals where they will sing for a live TV viewing audience that will be part of, but perhaps not all of, the elimination process. The winner will get $100,000 and a recording contract.

One difference is that many of these vocalists have been discovered before, though none have ever gotten the "big break." One example is Frenchie Davis, who was a potential semifinalist on Idol's second season but was disqualified after she informed producers about some unfortunate photos she had taken when she was 19 years old. Since then, Frenchie has been in the Broadway production of Rent, but she's never had the chance for a solo recording career.

The biggest difference is the voices themselves, including those of the four coaches (who gave an unreal group performance of Gnarls Barkley's "Crazy.") Out of the 15 performances on the show's opening night, all 15 were at least as good as many of Idol's finalists in Season 10, and many of The Voice contestants would be contenders on Idol. While AI gives us cheesy looks and easy song choices from a country pretender like Scotty McCreery, The Voice gives us truly strong country vocals from singers like Patrick Thomas and Jeff Jenkins. Basically, The Voice is vocal prime rib to American Idol's chop sirloin.

So tonight, when NBC re-airs last night's debut episode of The Voice at 9 p.m., please do yourself a favor and take a look. Yes, you might have to DVR part of Idol, but seriously, haven't you started losing interest anyway?

Here is a brief look at the 15 singers who performed last night on The Voice (each with a link to their performance):

Performer; Hometown; Song (Coaches who turned/ Team selected/ The Capn's rating)

Tarralyn Ramsey; Jacksonville, Fla.; "Breathe" by Faith Hill. (Christina and Cee-Lo; Team Christina). Tarralyn was a strong opening number who seemed nervous at first with some missed notes, but then rebounded with strength and some unreal high notes and vocal runs. 8.5/10
Patrick Thomas; Nashville, Tenn.; "Live Like You Were Dying" by Tim McGraw. (Cee-Lo, Adam and Blake; Team Blake). Patrick has a classic country voice and sings with a lot of conviction. He doesn't offer a lot of frills, but he sounds clear and strong. 8.5/10
Jared Blake; Nashville, Tenn.; "Good Girls Go Bad" by Cobra Starship. (No judges turned; Eliminated). Jared is a true rocker with a wonderful backstory about his desire to be a good father, and he really did do well, but his performance was less vocal and more stage presence. Because the judges are going on voice only, they couldn't identify with him. 8/10
Vicci Martinez; Tacoma, Wash.; "Rolling in the Deep" by Adele. (Christina and Cee-Lo; Team Cee-Lo). Vicci might be hard-pressed to move past this round, but she have an impassioned performance of a very current song and was largely on-pitch throughout. She'll definitely need performance training. (For comparison, check out how strong Haley Reinhart's performance of the same song was last week on Idol.) 7.5/10
Sonia Rao; San Francisco, Calif.; "If I Ain't Got You" by Alicia Keys. (No judges turned; Eliminated). At the start, it was clear that Sonia was a bit in over her head. She was very weak and seemed even timid. Toward the end, she rallied and had a few great moments, but it wasn't enough to turn the chairs. Sadly, she definitely had the look, just not "The Voice." 7/10
Elenowen (John and Nicole Johnson); Nashville, Tenn.; "Falling Slowly" by Glen Hansard and Marketa Irglova. (Cee-Lo and Blake; Team Blake). The show's first duet caught the judges by surprise and had some weak moments, but their voices blended well together. They also posed a very good question about what the judges had to offer them. They'll be interesting to watch. 7.5/10
Frenchie Davis; Los Angeles, Calif.; "I Kissed a Girl" by Katy Perry. (Christina; Team Christina). Frenchie is a true "poster-child" for this show, as she doesn't have the "look" that producers are looking for. But she does have "The Voice" and was one of the stronger ladies on opening night. Two fun things to look for: watch Frenchie's exuberance when Christina turns her chair, and her glee when Cee-Lo says that he recognizes her. 8/10
Kelsey Rey; Sebastian, Fla.; "Breathe" by Estelle. (Christina, Cee-Lo and Adam; Team Cee-Lo). Kelsey is the first "looker" to advance on the show, but because of the format, the coaches couldn't see that until she turned. She isn't the strongest vocalist, but she does have a clear voice with just a slight rasp. If she advances to the finals, she'll be a favorite. 8/10
Jeff Jenkins; Jones Creek, Texas; "Bless the Broken Road" by Rascal Flatts. (All four judges turned; Team Adam). Jeff's voice is one of the absolute best of the night, and the judges seemed to agree as all four turned their chairs. He's another reason the show is interesting, as his appearance isn't what you'd expect from such a great pop-country voice. He should advance to the finals as a favorite. 9/10
Rebecca Loebe; Atlanta, Ga.; "Come As You Are" by Nirvana. (Christina and Adam; Team Adam). The night's most interesting reworking of a familiar song came from a girl who is living out of her Toyota Camry. Her address should be changing. She blew away this Nirvana classic with flawless vocals, and she was clearly blown away once she realized that she was moving into the next round. 9/10
Joanne Rizzo; Freehold, N.J.; "I Say a Little Prayer" by Dionne Warwick. (No judges turned; Eliminated). I admire The Voice for including a 56-year-old in the competition, but Joann's choice of song, as well as her performance style, was a bit night-clubbish. This isn't what the music industry is looking for, so her elimination was pretty much assured. That said, it wasn't exactly bad. It just wasn't going to turn any chairs. 6.5/10
Xenia Martinez; Temecula, Calif.; "Break Even" by The Script. (Cee-Lo and Blake; Team Blake). Perhaps the coaches could hear the youth in her voice, though she sounds more mature than her 16 years. It wasn't a very strong performance, particularly in her breathing technique and enunciation. Still, she has a unique sound and could gain ground with some coaching from Blake. 7/10
Tje Austin; Austin, Texas.; "Just the Way You Are" by Bruno Mars. (Cee-Lo and Adam; Team Cee-Lo). Tje (pronounced Tje) is another cool part of why this show is great. Tje is a tall black guy with a big afro, but his parents are ultra-white Texas folk. You'd never have seen that one coming, but if you had seen him, you'd still be surprised at how great his performance was. Host Carson Daly had one of the best quotes of the night when he was hugging the Austins post-performance: "This is the new American family." 8.5/10
Javier Colon; Stratford, Conn.; "Time After Time" by Cyndi Lauper. (All four judges turned; Team Adam). Meet this season's odds-on front-runner. Try this: just listen to the YouTube link without looking at it and see if you can pick out even one stray note. If this had been on Idol, it would have been one of the greatest performances in this or any other season. Javier has a great story and unreal talent. Look for him in the finals. 9.5/10
Beverly McClellan; Fort Lauderdale, Fla.; "Piece of My Heart" by Janis Joplin. (Christina and Adam; Team Christina). The most counter-culture contestant is a 41-year-old, bald, tattooed lesbian who can sing note-for-note with Janis. Beverly's appearance will cause problems for her in making a connection with America, but her voice demands attention. 8.5/10

Let us know what you think about The Voice. Do you think it has a chance to be successful? Will you give The Voice a chance? Remember to follow this blog on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/capnpen. Also be sure to follow our Facebook group, American Idol Update.

"The Voice" tries to steal some of Idol's thunder

2011-04-21T23:19:00.000-07:00

It's an understatement to say that American Idol is a juggernaut. The show is as strong as ever in its tenth season, even after losing Simon Cowell to his X-Factor launch this fall, and even after adding two judges who have little but sunshine and lollipops to offer each week.

There has been little competition to Idol in the past decade. Nashville Star made an effort with the country music scene, but it had mixed results and was not renewed after its sixth season in 2008. This year will see the introduction of four more hopefuls that will put their own spin on the reality talent show.

Platinum Hit debuts May 30 on Bravo. It will focus on singer-songwriters who will undergo different challenges in an effort to win $100,000 and a contract with Sony and BMI. Jewel and former Idol judge Kara DioGuardi will head the judging slate.
Majors and Minors will debut this fall on The Hub. This show will highlight 16 young artists age 8-16, and will not have any eliminations. The kids will be mentored by stars like Jordin Sparks and Leona Lewis, and the winner will get a contract with Sony RCA/ Jive.
X-Factor is the most anticipated of the reality talent shows and will begin in September on FOX. It's open to soloists and groups, has no upper age limit, and the judges will serve as mentors. The voting is one of the big differences, as the viewing audience will decide the bottom two each week, while the judges will make the elimination between those two after a sing-off. It's expected that the audience will get the final say starting with the final four or five finalists.

This week, however, a very interesting competitor will go head-to-head with Idol. And while it may not win the ratings battle, it might win the format war by being a better show.

The Voice premiers this Tuesday, April 26, on NBC, and features the judging (coaching) talent of Cee Lo Green, Christina Aguilera, Blake Shelton and Adam Levine from Maroon 5. Last night we were treated to sneak preview of the show, starting with group performances by the judges singing Gnarls Barkley's "Crazy." OK, can we just say screw it to any more of the American Idol group numbers after hearing this crazy collaboration that had nary a stray note. And let's just say that Cee Lo is the poster child of a show centered around "the voice." There's no way that he ever would have found success on a show like American Idol, even though he's one of the most insanely talented vocalists in the world.

The way The Voice will work is that a performer will begin singing a song to the backs of four seats occupied by the coaches. If a coach likes the voice they hear, they can hit a red button that will turn their seat toward the singer. If they're the only one to turn, that singer is on their "team." If more than one coach turns, the singer gets to choose which coach they want to work with. If no judge turns, the singer is eliminated from the show. Each coach will get a team of eight artists, and they will have the hard task of narrowing that down to four for the finals. The winner gets $100,000 and a contract with Universal Republic.

After tonight's preview, I'm already a fan. The first singer highlighted by the show was Patrick Thomas, who delivered a solid version of Tim McGraw's "Live Like You Were Dying." After hearing weeks of Scotty McCreery playing it safe while making ultra-cheesy facial expressions, it was refreshing to finally hear a country singer who can do justice to a good tune. (And it was nice to see that this crew of judges/coaches might rival Steven Tyler for colorful quotes, as when Christina Aguilera joked with Patrick about taking his pants off, or when Adam Levine kidded Blake Shelton that, "If you weren't 6'5", I'd kick your ass.")

Patrick got Cee Lo, Adam and Blake to turn, and because of Blake's country roots, he won Patrick to his team. On Tuesday, The Voice will get the chance to win American viewers to its team. As for this reality talent fan, I'm definitely on board.

UPDATED ODDS: Stefano eliminated, AI 10 becoming a three-horse race

2011-04-21T21:56:00.000-07:00

It was bound to happen eventually. After three previous trips to the Bottom Three, self-admiring vocalist Stefano Langone was finally shown the door. That's not to say that we think that he deserved to go just yet. Our pick for the worst of the week was Scotty McCreery, and the one we thought would and should go was Jacob Lusk. That said, few tears will be shed over Stefano's exit because he was living life on the bubble and was struggling to find a strong, core audience.

With Stefano gone, the American Idol 10 horse race is narrowing down to a three-pony dead heat, with Scotty and James Durbin leading the way at the top, and Lauren Alaina nipping at their heels. Casey Abrams rounds out the Top 4, though we suspect that survivalist Haley Reinhart might crash that party if she stays on her current track. Jacob is now our odds-on pick to go next.

As far as things nipping on heels, we think the upstart show "The Voice" deserves a look from AI fans. It has an extremely unique spin on the talent show angle, and we'll be posting about tonight's sneak preview shortly. If you're truly fans of good voices, "The Voice" might really be an alternative to the back-story, personality, "favorite" driven angle that Idol has been working.

Following are our updated odds for the Top 6 for winning and elimination. Let us know what you think about these rankings and about this week's eliminations. Do you agree? Did Paul deserve to go home? And remember to follow this blog on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/capnpen. Also be sure to follow our Facebook group, American Idol Update.

Top 6 (Odds to Win)

1. Scotty McCreery (5/2)

2. James Durbin (11/4)

3. Lauren Alaina (9/2)

4. Casey Abrams (8/1)

5. Haley Reinhart (10/1)

6. Jacob Lusk (13/1)

Top 6 (Odds to Go)

1. Jacob Lusk (5/2)

2. Haley Reinhart (7/2)

3. Casey Abrams (15/4)

4. Lauren Alaina (31/4)

5. Scotty McCreery (8/1)

6. James Durbin (19/2)

Top 7 Idols play to fan bases; another male likely to leave

2011-04-21T14:54:00.000-07:00

This week will be a quick post. My "day job" requires a lot of time in the week preceding Easter, so I'll be cutting to the chase. As much as I'd love to skewer AI and it's foolishness (such as the horrific pre-show reunion of the six eliminated Idols and the in-vain search of Paul McDonald for something known as pitch), I simply don't have the time. So we'll be cutting to the chase with a brief review of each performance followed by our updated odds to win and to leave the Idol stage.

This week's theme was "Songs From the 21st Century." That's only broad enough to launch the next space shuttle through, so each Idol had the opportunity to choose songs that were pretty much from their cognitive lifetime. For the most party, that worked the Idols' advantage, with one notable exception.

Here is this week's show recap, followed by updated odds for winning and elimination:

Scotty McCreery, LeAnn Rimes' "Swingin'." OK, so we'll credit Miss Rimes with the song since it was from the 21st century, but it's really a John Anderson song from 1983. So Scotty gets no credit for singing something original or for adapting a female version to his range, since this YouTube version of Mr. Anderson's version was a clear roadmap for Idol's resident country favorite. Scotty could have burped the first half and farted the second half and his fans would still call it musical genius and vote him into the Top 6. It was average, and in what has become Scotty's standard, cheesy. It wasn't up to the par of the rest of the evening, but it will definitely be enough to ensure he'll stay around, in spite of bombing in the opening slot. (6.5/10)

James Durbin, Muse's "Uprising." As completely unoriginal as Scotty's performance was, James' number was an attempt at something truly unique. He started offstage at the rear of the theater and entered with a marching drum corps in tow. Throughout the number, James pushed his vocals to the limit and, unfortunately, did so with some mixed results. Still, James was a complete rock star on the stage and he owned it from the first note to the last. This performance will undoubtedly be polarizing to fans and non-fans, but it's a fair bet that James had everyone's full attention last night. For his adventurous attempt alone, he deserves a huge amount of credit. (8.5/10)

Haley Reinhart, Adele's "Rolling in the Deep." Haley's song choice was as aggressive as James', largely because her chosen artist has the current number one album on the Billboard charts. For yet another week, Haley chose a song that absolutely compliments her vocal range, and she did it (for the most part) on-pitch and with a fair amount of artistry. Amazingly, Haley has survived frequent flirts with elimination and has benefitted the most from Pia Toscano's exit. She may end up in the Bottom Three again, but it's unlikely that she's leaving quite yet. (8/10)

Jacob Lusk, Luther Vandross' "Dance With My Father." This is exactly the song that I would have chosen for Jacob, but I didn't know that Jacob's own father died when he was 12. Jacob had a bit of a hiccup at the start (that he later attributed to drums being in his ears), but he began to soar with his warm, tender tones. As the song neared its climax, however, Jacob began to attack with the top end of his range, and things got a bit dicey. It was a decent performance, but it might not be one that will help Jacob stay around another week. (7.5/10)

Casey Abrams, Maroon 5's "Harder to Breathe." Casey flirted with a return of the Angry Idol last night by bringing out his latent rocker tendencies. It's a little unfortunate because seeing his tender side had been nice in recent weeks. But his performance of "Harder to Breath" was mostly solid (except for his overplaying to the crowd at the edge of the stage, which looked forced and awkward). Casey's most memorable moment was at the end of the number when he approached the judges' table (again, a little awkwardly) and kissed J-Lo on the cheek. It was at once a gusty and foolish move, because it was bound to be so ultimately polarizing. Still, his performance was one of the night's best. (8/10)

Stefano Langone, Ne-Yo's "Closer." Once again, one of the Top 7 chose a solid song in their range and genre. By doing "Closer," Stefano completely played to his base and worked the crowd with his look and voice. Like Casey, he made too much of his time near the mosh pit, but he worked the vocals with his patented runs and more or less "owned" the song. It's hard to fault the kid too much because he is so good. On the other hand, he appears to be getting a bit too impressed with himself, so that makes it hard to give him complete credit. Even with a solid night, it's likely that he'll be tempting the fates of the Bottom Three. (8/10)

Lauren Alaina, Sara Evans' "Born to Fly." Who ever would have figured that Lauren was so intimidated, especially after her initial audition when she did an impromptu duet with Steven Tyler. Fortunately, last night she seemed to come out of her shell a bit and cast off some of her nervousness. For once, she really did seem to be having fun, complete with some good ol' fashioned country stomping near the end. At her best, Lauren's a breath of fresh air, and her version of "Born to Fly" could serve as a launching pad to move her as a gate crasher of the presumed Scotty-James finale. (8/10)

Tonight's Rankings

1) James Durbin (8.5)

2) Haley Reinhart (8)

3) Casey Abrams (8)

4) Lauren Alaina (8)

5) Stefano Langone (8)

6) Jacob Lusk (7.5)

7) Scotty McCreery (6.5)

Top 7 (Odds to Win)

1. Scotty McCreery (11/4)

2. James Durbin (3/1)

3. Lauren Alaina (5/1)

4. Casey Abrams (8/1)

5. Haley Reinhart (21/2)

5. Jacob Lusk (13/1)

7. Stefano Langone (19/1)

Top 7 (Odds to Go)

1. Stefano Langone (3/1)

2. Jacob Lusk (17/4)

3. Haley Reinhart (21/4)

4. Casey Abrams (11/2)

5. Scotty McCreery (19/2)

6. Lauren Alaina (21/2)

7. James Durbin (12/1)

Bottom Three:

Jacob Lusk's limited fan base won't be enough to keep him out of harm's way, and Stefano Langone has simply tempted fate too often to avoid the Bottom Three. Rounding out the ill-fated group will likely be Haley Reinhart, though Casey Abrams is also showing signs of being vulnerable again.

Elimination:

Though Stefano and Haley have both looked elimination in the eye more often, we are predicting that tonight will be Jacob Lusk's final night on the Idol stage.

Live blogging the Top 7

2011-04-20T16:37:00.000-07:00

<p><p><a href="http://www.coveritlive.com/mobile.php/option=com_mobile/task=viewaltcast/altcast_code=d60b31fb43" >American Idol Top 7: Songs From the 21st Century</a></p></p>

UPDATED ODDS: Plus what the Top 7 Idols should sing

2011-04-19T23:44:00.000-07:00

As we move into the Top 7 of American Idol, the producers have given the cast a theme that is the musical equivalent of tofu for most of them -- "Songs From the 21st Century." With a theme that broad (somewhat narrower than the moon, but broader than the Pacific Ocean) makes predicting exactly what the Top 7 will sing a virtual impossibility. But we've come up with some ideas about the types of songs they should sing, based upon what they need to show voters this week.

It's really not too important to show the judges anything new, because those three buffoons have proven that they'll cheer on virtually anything, especially if it's sung by a guy. Scotty and James could sing their next tunes through their sphincters and Randy, J-Lo and Steven would say it was musical genius. We hope that they'll strive for actual genius, so in that regard, song choice is important.

For a few of the Idols, every decision is critical. Haley is the "girl most likely to go home." Jacob and his catalogue of depression are nearing their end on the show. Stefano has the worst odds of winning and has tempted the Bottom Three far too much. And Casey now leads our pre-show "Odds to Go," as his buzz is quickly fading and he's trending sharply downward.

Following are our song choices for the Idols this week, as well as our pre-show "Odds to Win/ Odds to Go." Our song choices largely assume that the Idols should stick to well-known commodities, but not songs that were released within the last year. (That would risk far too easy, and far too unfair comparisons.) In only a couple of cases do we recommend veering from that course. Please let us know what you think of these selections, and be sure to check back tonight for our live blog of the performance show.

Casey Abrams (Win: 17-2; Go: 5-2). "Everything" by Michael Buble. Casey is hard to peg this week. On the one hand, he could take a very current song and turn it inside-out in a jazzy style. That would be my first preference. But short of that, he should probably stick to the jazziest pop artist around, Michael Buble. Michael's best-known number is "Home," but we strongly recommend steering clear of anything that makes statements like, "I wanna go home." The voters might just decide to take him up on that. A more voter-friendly choice would be "Everything."

Haley Reinhart (Win: 21-2; Go: 13-2). "Please Don't Leave Me" by P!nk. We'd really like to see Haley stay jazzy after last week's tour de force duet with Casey. Unfortunately, that really won't work with this week's theme, so the best bet for Haley will be to stay with an artist that somewhat similar to what Haley could be on the chart. Our pick is P!nk, and the song that we'd most like to see her sing is "Please Don't Leave Me," particularly because it gives Haley a chance to be a bit seductive with the audience.

Jacob Lusk (Win: 23-2; Go: 11-2): "Dance With My Father" by Luther Vandross. Jacob's choice is difficult because he's unlike most artists on the scene today. Honestly, he's vocally most like Luther Vandross, which poses some problems because it means another pained ballad by Idols' King of Pain. The late Mr. Vandross had a Grammy-winning hit with "Dance With My Father," and Jacob could probably score big with that tune.

James Durbin (Win: 3-1; Go: 17-1). "Gotta Be Somebody" by Nickleback. James also presents some issues because the style we've seen from him primarily agrees with a style of hair band rock that no longer exists (unless he goes with a gimmicky song like "I Believe In a Thing Called Love" by The Darkness.) Otherwise, he should take on a strong rock song like "Gotta Be Somebody" and put a spin on it that allows him to stretch out his own vocal twists.

Lauren Alaina (Win: 5-1; Go: 14-1). "Stuck Like Glue" by Sugarland. The 19E brass might force Lauren into a pop corner, but she's really showing herself to be best suited for country. This week, we'd like Lauren to go back to being a fun kid while reclaiming the vocal excellence she showed us in her initial audition. For that, we can't imagine a song any better than Sugarland's "Stuck Like Glue."

Scotty McCreery (Win: 11-4; Go: 16-1). "Then" by Brad Paisley. Scotty is the official front-runner on Idol, so he can afford to take some risks. We'd like to see him do something original, like taking a pop or rock hit and retooling it for a country vibe. Sadly, that's probably never going to happen. Instead, we'd expect to see Scotty stay in his country "lane." If that's the case, we'd suggest avoiding another turn with someone like Josh Turner and instead opt for a different country style, perhaps a singer like Brad Paisley who has match artistry with fun. "Then" is a bit slower and more romantic, but that would allow Scotty to serenade his diverse female following.

Stefano Langone (Win: 18-1; Go: 13-4): "With You" by Chris Brown. Every week that Stefano's on the show, he'll be the number one pick of most people to go home. That's why every week Stefano needs to come out "loaded for bear." "With You" was performed only one time on the show, in Season 7 by David Archuleta. It was probably his worst performance on the show, so there's room for Stefano to make an improvement. Whatever he does has to be memorable because he has the longest odds for winning, and close to the worst odds of staying one morenight.

What do you think? Let me know if you agree with this choices, or if you'd chose something different. Please remember to follow me on Twitter and on Facebook.

Again, please remember to come back tonight for a live blog of the performance show!

Sanity returns to Idol as first male is eliminated

2011-04-14T19:30:00.000-07:00

After five weeks of American Idol 10, it appeared that the Americans didn't want their Idol to be a girl. Week after week, Ryan Seacrest had the tough task of telling a female that their Idol journey was over. And when Haley Reinhart ended up in the Bottom Three tonight, it looked like that trend was going to continue for a sixth week.

But at long last, America finally seemed to hear and see what I've been hearing and seeing -- that Paul McDonald is pitch-challenged and manic. And they pulled the trigger on an elimination that was at least a week late. And with that elimination, the talent level on Idol actually improved. Please pardon the twist on a pun, but it seemed like the show "robbed Pia to slay Paul." Honestly, if I don't get to listen to Pia, at least I won't have to endure Paul.

No offense to the rose-suited one, but in spite of his sparkling eyes and gleaming smile, Paul had very little going for him musically, at least not on this show. In all of the clips I've seen of Paul playing in clubs, he had a cool, laid-back vibe that seemed to work well. I don't love his voice, but in clips like this one singing "Let it Ride" at Gulf Shores or this one performing "American Dreams," Paul was actually listenable. On Idol, he embraced a crazed, manic style that was fed by the judges and producers, and it didn't help him at all. Maybe now that he's free of the Idol constraints, he'll be able to go back to what he does best.

With Paul's elimination, the odds swing sharply against Stefano Langone as the next most-likely elimination. Here are our updated post-show odds for the Top 7. The theme for next week has not yet been revealed, so check back soon to see our updated odds and thoughts about song choices for the Top 7.

Let us know what you think about these rankings and about this week's eliminations. Do you agree? Did Paul deserve to go home? And remember to follow this blog on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/capnpen. Also be sure to follow our Facebook group, American Idol Update.

UPDATED ODDS: Chances high that a guy will be hitting the road

2011-04-14T16:36:00.000-07:00

After last night's disappointing Movie Night, very little has changed in our odds to win or for elimination. Of course, based on the way last week went, who really knows who's going home? It certainly won't be based on talent, at least not necessarily. So going into tonight's elimination, we offer you the updated odds, but admit that when it comes to Idol these days, no one really has a clue anymore.

The judges certainly don't have a clue ... at least not about their jobs or responsibilities. Unable or unwilling to truly offer valid criticism, these folks are content to smell farts and call them roses. In my previous post, I told you the things that they're unwilling to say. So as you look at these rankings, realize that these are what the raw data tell us, and not necessarily the way things will be at the end of the night:

Odds to Win

1. Scott McCreery (3/1)

2. James Durbin (7/2)

3. Lauren Alaina (11/2)

4. Casey Abrams (17/2)

5. Haley Reinhart (21/2)

6. Jacob Lusk (13/1)

7. Paul McDonald (29/2)

8. Stefano Langone (20/1)

Odds to Go

1. Stefano Langone (4/1)

2. Paul McDonald (9/2)

3. Jacob Lusk (6/1)

4. Casey Abrams (7/1)

5. Haley Reinhart (9/1)

6. Lauren Alaina (10/1)

7. James Durbin (12/1)

8. Scott McCreery (25/2)

With Stefano Langone and Paul McDonald leading the way at the top of the "Odds to Go" and at the bottom of the odds to win, the likelihood that a man is leaving is greater tonight than ever before. Of course, the judges' lone criticism last night was aimed solely at Haley Reinhart, and she remains vulnerable in the middle of the pack. We do not believe that Jacob Lusk is in any danger tonight, in spite of two straight performances that were not well-received by critics.

Let us know what you think about these rankings and about the predicted Bottom Three. Do you agree? Who should be going home? And remember to follow this blog on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/capnpen. Also be sure to follow our Facebook group, American Idol Update.

American Idol 10: Top 8 Idols fall flat with movie songs

2011-04-13T22:06:00.000-07:00

I'll admit that I'm still more than a little hacked about the way-too-early elimination of Pia Toscano last week. But Pia's exit aside, I was still hoping for a strong night of "Songs from the Movies" from the Top 8 on American Idol 10. It didn't happen. From the very opening number it was clear that a season that started with great promise is starting to unravel, in part because of the foolishness of the Idols in choosing their songs, and in part because of the complete unwillingness of the judges to offer any real criticism. So tonight, I'm going to start doing what they won't do. I'm going to pick apart these performances so that you'll have at least one opinion that is something more than sunshine, lollipops and roses.

I did a quick comparison earlier this week, pitting the judges' opinions against the consensus put forward over at WhatNottoSing.com. Basically, out of 24 male performances in the Top 12, the judges overpraised the guys 12 times, or 50 percent. Meanwhile, they overpraised the women just five out of 19 times, and underpraised one lady one time. So this expert crew of judges is overpraising these Idols 40 percent of the time. That's like a baseball umpire getting two out of every five pitches wrong. Oops, Mr. Pitcher, sorry, but I'm seeing every pitch as a ball today.

How are the "uneducated" at home ever going to know who's really doing well if the supposed experts won't do their jobs? (Actually, I think the viewers have a better feel for how the Idols are singing than the judges do.) Since they won't do theirs, I'll pick up the slack starting tonight. I've really tried to be honest in the past, but I probably tend to be a little easier because I don't want to go overboard. No more. If someone sucks, they suck. And tonight, there was plenty of sucking to go around.

Paul McDonald: "Old Time Rock and Roll" from Risky Business. I've been saying that for Paul to have any chances of winning that he needs to dial back the crazy, show us a more sensitive side and especially focus on solid vocals. To heck with that. Paul's throwing caution to the wind with cranked up crazy, including a new black suit with rose embroidering. Focus on solid vocals? Why, when you can just dance around the stage like a parrot on crack. It's doubtful that Paul hit every note in even one phrase. Even his enunciation was creative. While Bob Seger actually managed to say "floor" and "door," Paul turned them into true rhymes with "disco" by saying "flo" and "do" (with the long "o"). Additional "nice touches" were the manic tambourine banging and the 10-second span when he stopped singing to allow a sax player to have a solo. Yes, Paul's original on Idol because he really doesn't seem to care about how much he sucks. As long as the judges say he's wonderful (and they did again tonight), he'll keep playing this same act and hoping it buys him another week. (5/10)

Lauren Alaina: "The Climb" from Hannah Montana: The Movie. I'm really sick of this song. No, it's never been done on Idol, but it's been done in practically every middle school talent show on the planet. I played the first few bars of this performance for my 12-year-old daughter and she said, "Please don't tell me that she's singing 'The Climb.'" Lauren may think that she's playing right to her voting base, but most people over the age of 10 have learned to hate all things Hannah Montana. Now, as for her vocals, yes, she's a stronger singer than Miley Cyrus is. Most people are. Miley is mostly marketing, so let's not think that comparison makes this a special performance. Frankly, this was very good karaoke, especially because all Lauren did was stand centerstage and sing the number with a few hand gestures and a point skyward at the end, complete with a very flat note. The vocals weren't awful, the stage performance was lackluster and the song choice was the pits. (6.5/10)

Stefano Langone: "End of the Road" from Boomerang. Before we even get to the vocals or performance, Stefano deserves to get the boot for choosing a song called "End of the Road." Seriously, how stupid can one person be. Songs with titles that give suggestions like "Goodbye," "Farewell" or "End of the Freakin' Road" are taboo. That said, the kid has serious vocal chops, though he was dressed more like he was going out to the Quik Stop for a six pack than for a performance on the Idol stage. If vocals have anything to do with this show (and Pia's boot prove that's not the case), then Stefano should be a contender. He worked this very emotional, romantic number to the extreme, so much so that J-Lo concluded her remarks with, "That was the sh*t." It was indeed, but his choice of an ill-named song (at least for Idol) keeps him from the highest marks. (8/10)

Scotty McCreery: "I Cross My Heart" from Pure Country. Scotty was originally going to sing Harry Nilsson's "Everybody's Talking" but changed to this George Strait classic. It was a good move in theory, but instead of "Pure Country," it was really "Pure Karaoke." Scotty is very good, but has anyone compared his performances to the originals? The boy seems like a good kid, but he's far from original. He's a very good cover artist, and I have real questions that he'll be able to be successful with original material. I'd much rather have heard him do a country version of the Nilsson song, or to take a country song like this and put a unique twist on it. This was just standard country karaoke fare, and whenever Scotty tried to put something of himself into it, the notes went dreadfully awry. Was it bad? No. But it also wasn't more than passable. Will Scotty be safe? Absolutely. Will he do it by being unique? Absolutely not. (7/10)

Casey Abrams: "Nature Boy" from The Boy With Green Hair. I still maintain that Casey should have chosen "As Time Goes By." Instead he opted for the little-known "Nature Boy" from the even more little-known The Boy With Green Hair. The jazzy style is exactly what suits Casey, and it put him on his upright bass, which is where he seems most at home. The coolest addition, and the most unique, was his scat during the interlude. Vocally, Casey hit virtually every note, and he did it in very difficult jazz progressions. It wasn't a vocal master class, but it was absolutely the best of the night. I doubt that Casey will ever be a platinum-selling artist, but he is certainly interesting, and more than deserves consideration as a front-runner. The biggest drawback was the choice of an unknown song. (8.5/10)

Haley Reinhart: "Call Me" from American Gigolo. Leave it to the judges to hammer the most unique remaining female in the cast. Paul gives a crap concert and gets praise. Scotty does good karaoke, but karaoke nonetheless, but gets praise. Haley does a strong version of a very tough Blondie number, and all she gets is slammed by the judges for being too karaoke. Two remaining females, and the judges can't find it within themselves to give credit where credit is due. (Hey J-Lo, if you don't want to say something bad about one of the girls, then why did you say that you agreed with Randy and his criticism?! You might be the "Most Beautiful Woman in the World," but you really aren't the brightest, are you?) What about this was worse than what Paul, Scotty or Lauren did? Haley looked great in her miniskirt and boots, she slammed every note and soared on the top end of her range. At points it was a little manic, but it was solid fun. While it wasn't Haley's best performance, it was still in the top half of the night, and it's certainly good enough to earn her a spot in the Top 7. How about we start voting off the judges? (7.5/10)

Jacob Lusk: "Bridge Over Troubled Water" from The Pursuit of Happyness. Jacob proved to me this week that he needs to go by simply revealing his two initial song choices: "The Impossible Dream" and "You'll Never Walk Alone." We're really never going to get the fun side of Jacob, so why even bother hoping for it. I'm guessing that if he ever releases a CD, it's going to come with a pack of razor blades and a warm bath. Jacob has a soaring voice and a penchant for being over-emotional. Jimmy Iovine was absolutely correct in steering Jacob away from those choices, but why not to a cool or fun song? I had suggested "Ain't Too Proud to Beg." Jimmy figured another emotion-fest was better, so Jacob did "Bridge Over Troubled Water," which guaranteed a host of anguished, pained expressions. One interesting thought: In seven weeks, Jacob has now sung five slow-paced songs. No mention from the judges about him being stuck in a rut, though. Why not? I guess criticisms from them are reserved for the fairer sex. Yes, Jacob nailed the vocals. But I'm tired of the dreary and ready for him to show that he's not going to depress me with his CD. Good, but far from great. (7/10)

James Durbin: "Heavy Metal" from Heavy Metal. Like Casey, James chose a song that fits with his style, but it's something that most people simply don't know. Why not "Bohemian Rhapsody," which is known by everyone, and something that will make an instant connection? Frankly, James is starting to show some signs that he'll be difficult to work with, because he's willing to tell a producer like Jimmy Iovine that he's wrong. James certainly has range, but for several weeks now he's showing that he won't be hitting too many of the notes, including his finishing note tonight. I also found it interesting that a large chuck of the song was taken up by a guitar solo that proves nothing to me about the kind of performer James is. Yes, this was entertaining, but it was so much less than what it could have been. James indulged himself by singing something that he wanted, but that America will mostly not be receptive to. After tonight, James will definitely take a step back while Scotty will take the commanding lead as the odds-on favorite. (7/10)

Tonight's Rankings

1) Casey Abrams (8.5)

2) Stefano Langone (8)

3) Haley Reinhart (7.5)

4) Scotty McCreery (7)

5) Jacob Lusk (7)

6) James Durbin (7)

7) Lauren Alaina (6.5)

9) Paul McDonald (5)

Bottom Three:

Because he led off the night, and because he gave the worst performance, Paul McDonald will almost certainly fill one of the three bottom slots. The judges' slams on Haley Reinhart should ensure that she revisits the Bedpans of Doom. And the third spot will likely be filled by Stefano Langone, in spite of his strong vocals, but perhaps because he dared America to forget about him with "End of the Road."

Elimination:

While I want to believe that Paul will be getting the boot, I tend to think that America keeps its misogynist streak intact and votes Haley Reinhart off the island. She doesn't deserve to go yet, but neither did Pia Toscano. Maybe these two can console each other by outselling the people who outlasting them on the show.

UPDATED ODDS: Plus, What the Idols Should Sing in Movie Week

2011-04-13T10:45:00.000-07:00

One week after the unexpected exit of Pia Toscano, the Idols will tackle the theme of "Songs from the Movies" for only the fourth time in the show's history. This is a theme that could have used a big voice, but there are some solid choices for the remaining eight Idols. Please, God, just don't let any of them sing songs like "Flashdance (What a Feeling)" (Julia Demato, Season 2), "My Heart Will Go On" (Diana DeGarmo, Season 3), "Endless Love" (Danny Gokey, Season 8) or "Against All Odds (Take a Look at Me Now)" (performed seven times, and never well).

Before we get to the "spoilers" and odds, last week's elimination made something very clear. This year's crop of judges are entertaining, but that's where their value stops. They've decided it's not important to give valuable criticism to the Idols, nor to the audience. When everyone is wonderful, then no one is. So I've decided to do what they won't do. I'm going to pick apart every performance for you so that you'll hear from at least one source about the true "good, bad and ugly" that each Idol brings to the stage.

That starts tomorrow night with "Songs from the Movies" (or whatever they choose to call it). Like most of this year's theme's, this one is broad enough for everyone to choose something that suits them. It's also broad enough for them to choose things that will sink them. Here are my suggestions for the Top 8, as well as their odds to win Season 10:

Casey Abrams (8-1): "As Time Goes By" from Casablanca. One of the movies' greatest songs is such a broad canvas that it's been covered well by Harry Nilsson, Jimmy Durante, Louis Armstrong, Frank Sinatra and many others, in addition to the original version by Dooley Wilson. This version by Rod Stewart and Queen Latifah is a perfect example of the tone Casey could set with "As Time Goes By." The days of the Angry Idol need to be over. It's time for Casey to play on his sex appeal (did I really say that?) and connect with this sultry number.

Haley Reinhart (11-1): "Kiss Me" from She's All That. Haley's on a roll and will likely be the one to benefit most from Pia's untimely elimination. No offense to Lauren Alaina, but Haley's likely the most marketable female left on Idol, especially since she has a pretty firm handle on the style that best suits her. Tonight she needs to dial up the sexy with a song like "Kiss Me." She can undoubtedly do it better than Sixpence does live, and certainly better than the song's only performance on Idol by Lacey Brown in Season 9.

Jacob Lusk (14-1): "Ain't Too Proud to Beg" from The Big Chill. Jacob is my top candidate for worst song selection of the week based on his eye-jab to America at about the 1:00 mark of this clip. Jacob's going to do what he feels like, regardless of the wisdom of it. But what he should do is crank up his inner David Ruffin and knock out a song like "Ain't Too Proud to Beg." Yes, it was released separately from a movie, but it was a key part of The Big Chill, and it's something he could have fun with ... or at least something that won't easily make him over-emotional again.

James Durbin (7-2): "Bohemian Rhapsody" from Wayne's World. OK, let's try this again. Last week I said James should do "Bohemian Rhapsody" and he went with "While My Guitar Gently Weeps." (And his Idol performance was about half as good as this YouTube version that was posted a couple of years ago. This is his second chance to do the Queen classic that is pretty much the Holy Grail of rock vocals. Only twice has it been tackled on Idol: by Constantine Maroulis' and Kellie Pickler. I'll let you guess which one was good and which was horrific. After a sleepy week, it's time for James to bring things back up a notch with this crowd-pleaser.

Lauren Alaina (11-2): "9-to-5" from 9-to-5. Let's face it. Lauren's greatest chance of success is in the country realm, but she's being hemmed in on the show there by country boy Scotty McCreery. If she's ever going to show she has the country chops, then she needs to step it up with a number like "9-to-5." She could learn a thing or two from this live performance by Dolly Parton herself, or from this live cover by Fergie and Charlotte Church. (No, really!) This would be a lot of fun for Lauren and would improve her chances of repeating Pia's fate.

Paul McDonald (33-2): "That's What Friends Are For" from Night Shift. People are so familiar with the Dionne Warwick and Friends version of this song that they forget that originated in the closing credits of Night Shift, and Rod Stewart really does it better than the later version (Stevie Wonder's harmonica notwithstanding). Paul's voice isn't suited for most things, and in spite of some love by the judges and a few online reviewers, most of America doesn't appear to be warming to him. If he hopes to survive, he needs to get a little less crazy and a little warmer.

Scotty McCreery (3-1): "Heartland" from Pure Country. Because Scotty is "Pure Country." Nuff said. Seriously, this kid is so popular right now that he could armpit fart his next song and get a standing ovation and free pass into the next week. How much more safe would he be if he evoked thoughts of George Straight in a fun song like "Heartland. If Pia's exit taught us anything, it's that the guys are safer than the girls, and that you pretty much just need to play to your audience. That's what will get you voted through again.

Stefano Langone (20-1): "Stand By Me" from Stand By Me. Stefano's pretty much toast. If it doesn't happen this week, it'll be next week. (He's now our odds-on-favorite to leave at 4-1.) It doesn't matter what he sings or how he does with the songs, so he might as well just cut loose and have a lot of fun while he's there. This song plays right into Stefano's vocal style, and it gives him tons of headroom for his vocal runs. He can also do it in a number of ways, as evidenced by the differences in the Ben E. King original, this cover by Prince Royce or the uber-cool version done by Playing for Change. (Side note: That really is one of the coolest things I've ever seen on YouTube. Take a few minutes to watch it. The production behind it is amazing!) Stefano can choose something fun and cool as his exit, or he can overreach and leave us with something forgettable. I'm hoping that he takes the cool road.

What do you think? Let me know if you agree with this choices, or if you'd chose something different. Please remember to follow me on Twitter and on Facebook.

There will be no live blog of the performance show this week, but we will be live on Thursday for the elimination show, so be sure to join us!

Pia Toscano signs with Interscope records

2011-04-11T09:47:00.000-07:00

In our last entry, we left no doubt about how we felt about Pia Toscano's much-too-early exit from American Idol. It has been rightly ranked as one of the most shocking eliminations in Idol history, and we consider it to be at the top of that list. The other two biggies for us are Chris Daughtry and Jennifer Hudson, who went out at number four and seven in their respective seasons. Pia's status as the presumptive frontrunner and her elimination in ninth place is the reason she ranks ahead of the others in shock value.

On the plus side, getting booted so soon has allowed Pia to get a recording contract immediately, according to Us Weekly. The deal reportedly is with Jimmy Iovine's Interscope records, and Jimmy's apparently "calling every top songwriter and producer in town to get an album together and rush release it."

One concern is the rush behind the project. It seems that Jimmy and Interscope are quickly trying to capitalize on Pia's sudden notoriety in order to boost record sales. While the profit motive is understandable, it would be a shame to rush out a substandard product for a some quick bucks at the cost of Pia's career. Managed properly, Pia seems to have the look and the voice to be a fixture on the music scene for a long time. A quick, slapped-together album will do her a great disservice. One bad project can derail a career, especially if it's an artist's first. Just ask Carly Smithson, nee Hennessy.

Hopefully these "top songwriters and producers" will do better for Pia than they did for Bo Bice, Diana DeGarmo, Katharine McPhee and Blake Lewis. Yes, all four of them were runners-up, but all four also were set to get the star treatment and first-rate projects with great writers and producers. All four albums were huge disappointments that left the respective artists looking for new labels afterward. Bo went from RCA to StratArt. Katharine went from RCA to Verve. Blake went from Arista to Tommy Boy. Diana went from RCA to nothing. Since its release in 2004, her only CD has sold less than 200,000 copies.

Pia is an anomaly because she had such a star quality that she was presumed to have an enormous following. Regardless of what Idol producer Nigel Lythgoe says, Pia was looked at by most of us who follow the show as the odds-on favorite to win. The big money in Vegas was mostly on Pia and Scotty McCreery. Fan forums across the Internet were loaded with Pia's minions, and her Facebook group was among the largest of this season's Idol finalists. It's possible that all of the assumptions were that she was so popular that she didn't need the extra support.

Nigel looked at the numbers and made the conclusion that because Pia wasn't getting the most votes that she wasn't a frontrunner. That conclusion is dead wrong. We believe that if she had survived the trip to the Bottom Two that she likely would have won because fans would have rallied to her in record numbers. Since her exit from Idol, her largest Facebook group has grown from about 15,000 fans to more than 28,000, and her overall Facebook following has increased about 57 percent.

It's hopefully a good thing for Pia that she'll get an album out well before the eventual winner of Season 10. It's a bit sad for fans of the show, because we'll be deprived of one of the best voices ever to grace the Idol stage.

Check back with us in the next two days as we'll have updated odds for the remaining finalists as well as predictions about what each should sing in Movie Week.

AI10 Shocker! Pia Toscano eliminated (aka Something stinks in Idol-land)

2011-04-07T19:08:00.000-07:00

On Thursday night's American Idol elimination show, we entered knowing a few things:

Paul, Stefano, Haley and Jacob were in danger of elimination.
Casey and Lauren were on the bubble of the Bottom Three, but were certainly safe.
Pia, Scotty and James weren't going anywhere but the Top 8.

This wasn't based on performances as much as on the data that we follow every week. So my prediction for this week's Bottom Three (Paul, Jacob and Haley) was an educated guess based on numbers and history. At least tonight's result got the historic part right.

In a shocker that may dwarf the eliminations of Chris Daughtry and Jennifer Hudson, Pia Toscano was handed her walking papers in week five. This will send enormous waves through the entertainment world as everyone from writers to odds makers will find themselves scrambling to make sense of things. And the "sense" side of this equation is what has me scratching my head.

Pia has sizable followings on virtually every Idol fan site. She was a Vegas co-favorite (with Scotty McCreery). She was one of only three Idols declared absolutely safe this week by DialIdol, which registered an overnight busy percentage of close 10 for Pia. By comparison, Paul McDonald and Jacob Lusk had less than 1 percent and were overwhelmingly at the bottom of the rankings. Pia's Facebook page has more than 17,000 fans. Jacob's has fewer than 10,000. On the Hollywood Stock Exchange Pia's price was $16.19, which was second only to James Durbin. Stefano Langone was last trading at $8.10. (At $2 per placement, the winner would cash out at $24. Pia, finishing ninth, will cash out at $8.) On Funofficepools.com, Pia was the overwhelming pick to win; out of 421 people in the "Ricky" pool who picked winners, Pia was picked by 159 to win. James, Scotty, Lauren and Casey had 58, 58, 56 and 47 respectively.

The numbers simply don't add up. Unless the busy percentages were only in one or two areas. Unless all of Pia's fans are on Verizon instead of AT&T. Unless everyone else's Facebook fans voted and Pia's took the night off. Unless folks were inspired by Jacob's "Man in the Mirror" and Paul's "Folsom Prison Blues" and left flat by Pia's powerhouse "River Deep, Mountain High." Like I said, none of it computes.

No doubt that you'll hear cries of "foul" from a lot of corners in the days ahead. You may even hear people demand to see the accounting of Idol's numbers. It's not going to happen. Just get used to Pia being gone, and get ready to buy her CD when it comes out. This is really setting up to be another Daughtry situation where the too-early boot-ee ends up running circles around the eventual winner.

Idol will certainly try and spin this as a "vote for your favorite" situation where no one is safe. The problem is that a lot of fans will just get hacked off and stop watching. There's no sense in voting once your favorite is no longer there. Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised to later learn that Pia had broken a rule that led Idol to eject her prematurely. That would make more sense than tonight's vote.

While Idol will try and spin this to its advantage, expect the folks at X-Factor to use it also. The British original's judging and voting would never have allowed this to occur, since the public only decides the Bottom Two. The judges then decide which of those two to send home after a "final showdown." Only when the number of contestants reach four or five does the public voting make the absolute determination.

I'll keep watching and blogging for the faithful, but a lot of my desire to watch Idol just left the stage with Pia. There's really not much place in the world for a show where a performer of Pia's caliber is so grossly underappreciated.

American Idol: Solid Rock and Roll Hall night sets up first male elimination

2011-04-07T12:26:00.000-07:00

In the first four eliminations of American Idol 10, we've seen more than half of the ladies exit stage left. Each of them had their quirks that seemed to rub the viewing public's collective nerves. First came Ashthon Jones and her wild hair. Then Karen Rodriguez and her bilingual lyrics. Then the double dip of Naima Adedapo (too reggae) and Thia Megia (too young and naive). That has left us with all six men and just three ladies. Now in week five, something is ready to give.

After a night that celebrated the Rock and Rock Hall of Fame, the five favorites are clearly still entrenched and aren't going anywhere. That just leaves the four Idols sitting on the bubble who will be hoping and praying for another week on the big stage. Instead of giving you two articles (one review and one odds) this week, I'll combine the two to save time and space. (And because my family is waiting on me to get home for some fun plans later today! Later this weekend, we'll be watching the Florida Gators at their annual Orange and Blue Debut. I'm sure I'll see you all there!)

Here is this week's show recap, followed by updated odds for winning and elimination:

Jacob Lusk, Michael Jackson's "Man in the Mirror." Before he even sang a note, Jacob ensured his place in the Bottom Three by declaring that if he ended up there it wouldn't be because of his performance but because people watching weren't willing to look at themselves in the mirror. Nice, Jacob. Jab potential voters in the eye before you sing. Maybe you could give us paper cuts later and pour salt in the wounds. Jacob's initial selection of "Let's Get It On" was a better direction, though I understood his objection to singing about "doing the nasty." I would have preferred hearing him on Al Green's "Let's Stay Together" because of it's sultry romantic tones. Jacob went with the message song, and it was OK, but I really don't get how it was designed to motivate us to make a change in ourselves, other than changing the channel until the next performer. Again, it was OK, but not amazing. And certainly not enough to overcome singing in the dreaded opening slot. Right out of the box, Jacob is guaranteed a slot in the Bottom Three and is my pick for tonight's elimination.

(7/10)

Haley Reinhart, Janis Joplin's "Piece of My Heart." This year's resident comeback kid has been making a lot of good choices lately. Following up late week's powerhouse turn on "Bennie and the Jets," Haley made the perfect selection of "Piece of My Heart" this week (and I and a lot of other writers had suggested). It was really the only good choice she could make. Unlike a couple of the others who had great choices in front of them that they passed on, Haley embraced her inner Janis and put together a great rendition of a song that is very familiar. Each week she seems to look more like a star, and now she's singing like she doesn't just want to hang on, but actually wants to win. (Unfortunately, the second performance spot has as bad of a track record as the opening spot, so Haley could still wind up in the Bottom Three). This might not have been the best performance of the week, but it was close. (8.5/10)

Casey Abrams, CCR's "Have You Ever Seen the Rain." No longer playing the part of the Angry Idol, Casey now seems to be content to reveal a softer side. I had preferred a little James Taylor for Casey, but he went with a semi-upbeat Creedence Clearwater Revival number that he broke down to a jazzier feel, complete with his performance on the upright bass. Vocally, it wasn't perfect, but like Haley, Casey has such passion in his singing that a few slightly wandering notes are easy to forgive. It's hard to imagine that this guy would ever sell a platinum album or sell out an arena, but he could easily become a solid name in the jazz world, and he'd be a lot of fun to watch in person. It's extremely doubtful that he'll be going anywhere after this week. (8/10)

Lauren Alaina, Aretha Franklin's"Natural Woman." Here was the first big mistake of the night. Lauren didn't have a ton of great options, but she could have picked a song that didn't require a vocal powerhouse, and one that didn't draw strong comparisons to the likes of Kelly Clarkson, who destroyed this number in Season 1. Instead of coming out like the next Kelly or Carrie, Lauren came out like too many before who just do "OK." If this had been talent night at Lauren's school or open mike night at a nearby pub, this would have been top-shelf. But for American Idol, it was average fare. It would be like going to Kevin Rathbun Steak here in Atlanta for a filet mignon and instead getting top sirloin. It might be a decent meal, but not in this venue. This is the point in the competition where Lauren needs to step up and show us her inner diva. Right now, I'm still just seeing an overwhelmed teenager. (7/10)

James Durbin, The Beatles' "While My Guitar Gently Weeps." Once again, one of the Idols takes a big backswing ... and whiffs. Tonight was a chance for James to show us how he can do with an all-time classic rock tune like "Bohemian Rhapsody." The list the Idols got was packed with tons of huge numbers that would have showcased James. Instead, he opted for a favorite number that was "nice" but ultimately forgettable. It's understandable that James really wanted to sing this song because it's one of his favorites, but this is now the appropriate time to bring out one of Simon Cowell's favorite words: indulgent. Just because James likes the song doesn't mean it's something that was best for this moment. Beyond the choice, the performance was also lacking in comparison with some of James' previous performances. The notes weren't there even more than normal, and his signature high note in the final seconds was as out of place as putting parsley on a bowl of ice cream. Was it passable? Yes. Was it what we have come to expect from James? Not even close. (7/10)

Scotty McCreery, Elvis Presley's "That's All Right Mama." It was pretty easy to predict that Scotty would perform an Elvis tune (though I thought he should steer clear and do Hank Williams' "Lovesick Blues"). Of all the Elvis songs on the list, however, this was the one that had the least potential for Scotty's Elvis impersonation to come forth. Instead of Elvis, we definitely got Scotty, who unfortunately seemed to learn some of his moves from Paul McDonald. Vocally, Scotty sounds great and undoubtedly will sell scores of CDs to admiring fans. But in concert, Scotty would get old very quickly. Someone desperately needs to get this boy a performance coach or else we'll be stuck with endless two-fisted moves with the microphone and George Bush-like sideways smirks. I like Scotty, but the cheese factor is building. It's time for him to become less cartoon and more performer. (7.5/10)

Pia Toscano, Tina Turner's "River Deep, Mountain High." Pia dropped the hint on this number last week in her post-performance interview, and fortunately still got to perform it. Finally, we get Pia in an upbeat mode (though this was not really Tina Turner's version, but the one made famous by Celine Dion). Even when channeling Celine, Pia makes performing on the Idol stage seem effortless. Watching her sing is like watching other people shop. But instead of pulling items off of a shelf, Pia is just reaching up and plucking whatever note she wants to sing. One improvement for Pia was another week without the mike stand. The judges critique of her performance skills is fair, but it's also fair to note that most of these Idols aren't performing like they own the stage. Perhaps it's just because her voice is so professional that we expect every other aspect of her craft to be up to the same standard. If that's the case, then perhaps we should flog whoever sent her out with what looked like a Dalmatian tie-dye jumper. The look was off, but the vocals were 100 percent on. (9/10)

Stefano Langone, Percy Sledge's "When a Man Loves a Woman." In this one case, I'll give an Idol a pass on a bad song choice because it kind of worked. Stefano had the chance to do something by his only listed influence, Stevie Wonder. Instead, he chose the impassioned Percy Sledge classic that requires immense vocal power. Fortunately for Stefano, he has that in great supply. What he usually doesn't have is a lot of emotion, but last night he summoned what has never been there and delivered what was probably his best moment of the season. He also did it singing in the eighth slot, which has been given the boot only once in Week 5 in the show's history. Stefano might end up back in the Bottom Three, but it won't be because he didn't do an admirable job with everything on the line. (8/10)

Paul McDonald, Johnny Cash's "Folsom Prison Blues." In all honesty, this might have been a very appropriate song choice for Paul. because at this point I'd like to have him arrested for impersonating a performer on the Idol stage. Then he could sing the blues. Until then, scores of viewers will be singing their own blues each time Paul appears. OK, so that sounds mean. But do you really love listening to the guy? The "train a comin'" was headed for a wreck, because even though this might have been fun, it resembled nothing even close to a strong vocal performance. The range for most of the song consists of about five notes, none of them in a challenging range. And for about 20 seconds Paul didn't even sing anything as he ceded the stage to a guitarist doing a cool solo. Paul's only verbalizations during that time amounted to "come on ya'll." (And that's in addition to his weekly "what's up" shout out that has become like an annoying rash.) Going last will undoubtedly unless Idol fans finally decide to do what they've never done and boot the final performer (in weeks 4 to 6). This sucked, but what sucks more is that he'll be back next week. (6/10)

Tonight's Rankings

1) Pia Toscano (9)

2) Haley Reinhart (8.5)

3) Casey Abrams (8)

4) Stefano Langone (8)

5) Scotty McCreery (7.5)

6) Lauren Alaina (7)

7) James Durbin (7)

8) Jacob Lusk (7)

9) Paul McDonald (6)

Top 9 (Odds to Win)

1. Pia Toscano (7/2)

2. James Durbin (5/1)

3. Scotty McCreery (11/2)

4. Lauren Alaina (27/4)

5. Casey Abrams (9/1)

6. Jacob Lusk (12/1)

7. Haley Reinhart (17/1)

8. Stefano Langone (20/1)

9. Paul McDonald (21/1)

Top 9 (Odds to Go)

1. Paul McDonald (17/4)

2. Stefano Langone (19/4)

3. Haley Reinhart (6/1)

4. Jacob Lusk (25/4)

5. Casey Abrams (33/4)

6. Lauren Alaina (12/1)

7. James Durbin (27/2)

8. Scotty McCreery (14/1)

9. Pia Toscano (41/2)

Bottom Three:
In spite of his favored performance slot and the judges' shameless pimping of him, Paul McDonald's sorry performance will land him squarely in the Bottom Three again. Haley Reinhart's performance was strong, but singing second will relegate her to the Bottom Three as well. Opening performer (and guilt-tripper) Jacob Lusk will round out the Bottom Three.

Elimination:
Justice would dictate that Paul take his rose-patch suit and head back for Nashville. But history won't be made tonight. Instead, the opening slot will claim yet another victim and Jacob Lusk will head home to look himself in the mirror and wonder if he might think twice before something stupid on camera again.

Let me know what you think about last night's performances? Do you agree? Who was the best? Who was the worst? And who should hit the bricks in tonight's elimination show? Remember to follow this blog on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/capnpen. Also be sure to follow our Facebook group, American Idol Update.