During this off-season, serious hockey fans have been compelled to keep an eye on salary cap websites, like capgeek.com and nhlnumbers.com.

These sites have tracked all of the player movement and currently reveal that four teams are at least $2 M over the cap maximum at this late stage of the off-season.

The latest team to go over is the New Jersey Devils, as a result of their mega-deal with Ilya Kovalchuk.

The clear mandate for these teams is to sell off other major-league resources in exchange for prospects or future draft picks that will not translate into cap hits for the upcoming year.

Since there are not likely to be many teams who can afford to take on the type of salary that will bring these teams back in line, the Leafs are thought to be well-positioned to capitalize.

Don’t be fooled by a number of teams at the lower end of the scale that shows a number of squads with lots of cap space. These teams will not be spending to the cap maximum because of limited organizational budgets.

That’s where it gets interesting for Toronto.

The Leafs are currently over the cap themselves (by about $275 K) but could easily get under that limit by burying a contract like Jeff Finger’s $3.5 M. Should they elect to do that, they could take on a $3 M salary . Looking at the Devils salary structure, that means they could target a guy like David Clarkson, a rugged forward with a nice scoring touch, who will count $2.66 M against the cap, for each of the next three years.

Similarly, veteran Jamie Langenbrunner, a veteran performer who tallied 61 points last year, will count $2.8 M against the cap.

The Bruins, Canucks and Flames are the other clubs caught in the salary cap bind. You can bet that Leaf GM Brian Burke has been talking to each of these clubs but we believe the best fit is in New Jersey.

Boston is not about to give the Leafs any chance to improve their roster, while the Bruins hold the Leafs first round pick again this season.

Calgary may be reluctant in the wake of a one-sided deal that brought Dion Phaneuf here last season.

Vancouver is also an unlikely dance partner because of some lingering bad blood with Burke.
That’s why the Leafs are most hopeful about dealing with the Devils.

The consensus seems to place the Leafs in the 12th seed at season’s end, a marginal improvement on their last place finish, but four rungs out of the playoff tournament. If that prediction turns out to be accurate, it would extend the club’s worst ever run of futility in club history.

At the moment they are one of only two teams (Florida is the other) who have not played a playoff game since the league’s strike year.

Is there some reason for more optimism, wit some hope for a better team?

We think so.

In goal, last season there were questions about Vesa Toskala a nd Jonas Gustavsson was an unknown quantity. The Leafs enter the year with J S Giguere and Jonas Gustavsson entrenched in their expectation to split the starts. Giguere added a sense of stability to the team and his solid rapport with his young teammate was a refreshing change for the club’s management. Gustavsson, for his part, overcame some early health issues and finished the year off in a positive frame of mind. Together they represent a significant upgrade over the beginning of last season.

On defense, the club will look to Dion Phaneuf to assume the role of team leader, now that he has been installed as the new captain. He represents all the skills and attributes that GM Brian Burke expects from the Leafs. Phaneuf is a physical force and is equally adept at both ends of the ice. He will figure prominently in the club’s special teams, both of which were last in the league last season. Indeed, the rest of the team is loaded with a nice blend of veterans and youngsters. Experienced blueliners Tomas Kaber, Mike Komisarek and Francois Beauchemin represent one of the best quartets in the league. Throw in Luke Schenn and Carl Gunarsson and you see why Burke states very confidently that he believes his six-pack of defensemen ranks the equal of any defense corps in the league. He did not make that same claim, nor could he, before last season.

So with expected improvement in goal and on the blueline, the last area to get the Burke makeover is the team’s group of forwards.

Last season, Burke acquired Phil Kessel, paying a heavy price, but it landed him one of only 13 NHLers who have reached the 30 goal mark in each of the last two seasons. When you consider that he missed a month at the start of the year, his 30 goals in only 70 games played, seems to indicate that he can easily improve on those totals.

The Leaf GM then added Kris Versteeg, Colby Armstrong and Clarke MacArthur to bolster a thin offense. The Leafs are looking for prized rookie Nazem Kadri to make the grade and a host of young returning forwards like John Mitchell, Tyler Bozak and Christian Hanson are being challenged to improve on their previous seasson’s exploits.

It says here that this will be a much improved club that wil challenge for a playoff spot.

We are also not ruling out more moves by the tireless and creative GM. In fact it should not surprise anyone if he finds another talented forward or two before the seaon begins.

In the last few days, we have seen the Leafs acquire two more experienced NHLers who improve the team’s depth.

First, they moved a pair of low minor-leaguers to Tampa to acquire Matt Lashoff, a defenseman who has played with the Bruins and the Lightning He is a former first round pick (22nd overall in the 2005 Draft). The Leafs sent lightly regarded forward prospects, Alex Berry and Stefano Giliati to Tampa.

Why on earth would Toronto grab another defenseman?

That’s surely the first question from many fans of the hockey club. The answer lies in the fact that Toronto, like all other NHL clubs is allowed a maximum of 50 contracts, comprising of 23 NHL deals and 27 minor league player signings. It is believed that this trade frees up a spot that could be used for another signing.

Lashoff represents another serviceable blueliner for the organization’s overall depth but the real reason for this deal is the subsequent signing of Clarke McArthur. The Leafs had been quiet for a few weeks and still had some roster and salary cap flexibility, that other clubs simply do not have,

It has been speculated that a number of players would have to be moved from existing clubs because they are already over the cap or because they might otherwise walk away from salary arbitration situations.

That’s what happened to MacArthur in Atlanta where the Thrashers walked away from a $2.4 M award and left his as a UFA. The Leafs have signed him for $1.1 M for the upcoming season.

It is a low-risk proposition for the Leafs and they may wind up with a nice win here. He is a veteran of four seasons, who has never really been given “top-six” minutes except for injury replacement situations in Buffalo and Atlanta. In Toronto, he will likely get a good shot at playing the left wing on a scoring line.

The one-year deal is something that MacArthur and his agent want because they are confident that that he will make the most of this opportunity. If the Leafs get the kind of scoring out of him, that he’s shown in the last two years, (17 goals in 2008-09 and 16 last year) for the paltry salary he has agreed to, this is a nice win for Brian Burke.

With the number of unsigned UFAs and some other teams still already over their cap maximum, we wonder if the Leafs may get the chance to capitalize in other scenarios that will unfold over the next month or so.

Instead, Toronto fans are left to read about the Leafs apparent interest in the likes of a washed up veteran, Paul Kariya, or Ryan Johnson, a role player with the Canucks last season.

Alternatively, they are also waiting for a number of teams who are currently over the cap, to make players available as they strive to confirm to the limits.

These are second rate options and do not bode well for Brian Burke.

He still has slightly over $2 M under the cap and should be seeking the best scoring options that he can find.

We have spoken of a number of names who fit that bill.

O’Sullivan. Cheechoo. Svatos.

These three, for instance, make more sense as guys who are not over the hill (30 or younger) and have scored at a good clip in the NHL.

They are all out there and unsigned UFAs..

There you are Brian- your tip of the day…

That implies that there are still some quality players out there who will have to consider a pay cut to continue their NHL careers.

The smart thing for some of these guys to do is to look for a short term opportunity that makes sense and may provide a jump-start or boost to their careers.

Raffi Torres is one such player, having just completed the final year of a three year deal that paid him an average of $2.25 M. He’s very unlikely to see that kind of money come his way this year, despite the fact that he scored 19 goals in 60 with Columbus last season and has scored over 20 in two other years, during his 6 full seasons in the NHL.

Naysayers will point to his 14 games with the Sabres who acquired him at the trade deadline last year. He didn’t fit in there as he was held goalless and added only 5 assists, while being confined to third and fourth line minutes.

He has primarily been known as a robust player who has a track record as a scorer in this league. He is also a Toronto native. Torres is looking for a way to become more relevant in the NHL. He need only look at a player like Matt Stajan and see what Toronto exposure did in terms of getting a big contract offer from Calgary, after a trade last season.

That should be a mutual attraction to Leaf GM Brian Burke, who is reputed to covet players with that skill set, and for Torres, who may elevate his profile here.

Frantisek Kaberle is quoted as saying,  “I think that during the course of the year he will be traded to another club,” Kaberle said. “There is only one chance for Toronto to get something back in return for Tomas now. In my opinion, I can’t see Tomas entering a new contract with Toronto. Not if Ron Wilson continues to be employed there.”
That’s a pretty scathing indictment of the current Leaf coach and may speak to the underlying reason for the apparent reluctance of some free agents to agree to come to play in Toronto.

Kaberle is no t and has never been a headline grabbing type personality in his tenure with the Leafs. His father’s comment speaks to a clear rift between star player and coach.

Wilson, for his part, must sense that he needs to get this team off to a good start.

Everyone remembers the horrible 0-7-1 beginning to last season. The Leafs never made up that lost ground.

As a result, you would expect the coach to foster a positive team-building approach. Knowing that this rift exists, between Kaberle and Wilson, the onus will be on both of them to work together

Failure to achieve that end may mean that neither player, nor coach ends the year on the team.
More drama with the Leafs…what else would you expect?

At the top of the agenda is an experiment with three on three matchups to settle overtime instead of the shootout option. The resulting open ice should create much more room and many more scoring changes. Another wrinkle being considered is that teams revert to their second period switches, which means a longer change for players coming on and of the bench. It is hoped that the more difficult player changes might also result in more odd man rushes in the extra time.

NHL purists have long held the belief that the shootout is a gimmick and no really a way to settle this team game.

There are still those who are happy with the shoot out and the fact that an ultimate winner is declared. In association with the overtime result, there is also some talk about awarding three points for a regulation win, two for an overtime, or shootout, win and one for the loss in overtime or the shootout.

In terms of on ice changes, the league will experiment with only three faceoff locations, all in the center of the ice, as opposed to the rink corners. This is designed to create more scoring opportunities.

The no-touch icing will be a part of these trials to see if the league likes what may result, such as fewer injuries and less time wasted.

For my part, I am a hockey purist and wonder about the need for all these changes.

Hockey is the fastest-paced pro sports spectacle and has been so forever. It had also gotten along without overtime and the tie was a fair and acceptable result for a regular season game.

I say, to those of you who like the shootout, petition for it to be an intermission feature. It has no business in deciding a team game.

It means that the Leafs will go into the upcoming season with almost half of the club’s salary cap commitment tied up in eight defencemen. Barring injury, the team will dress six or seven of them, meaning that at least one salary will be assigned to an inactive player.

It also means that all those rumors, about a top six forward coming the other way, were not real.

Still, most Leaf fans should be disappointed with this outcome because it underlines the inflated value that Brian Burke has assigned to Kaberle. You would think that even in picking up a first round pick, Burke should have been satisfied. That scenario would have given the club a decent future asset as well as essentially given the Leafs some flexibility in pursuing other UFA players.

There are a number of intriguing names out there, who some team will try to snap up.

The Leafs need offense, so we will focus there.

Jonathan Cheechoo – The 30 year old winger is a four-time 20+-goal scorer, who has a career-high 56 goal total, from the ’05-06 season on his resume.

Patrick O’Sullivan – a former second round pick in 2003, has bounced around the NHL for five years, tallying an average of 10 goals per season.

Lee Stempniak – Discarded by the Leafs at last year’s trade deadline, he went on an unprecedented scoring binge once he joined the Phoenix Coyotes, notching 14 goals in 18 games.  He had 14 tallies in 62 prior games with the Leafs. That adds up to a 28-goal season last year, folks.

Raffi Torres – This Toronto native is a physical player, with a good scoring touch, including a career-best 27 goals in the 2005-06 season

Marek Svatos – Prior to last season, this winger averaged over 20 goals per season, but after slumping to only 7 goals last year, has not yet drawn much interest.

These forwards are all 30 years of age or less and represent an upgrade over the bottom end of the current Leaf roster.

The Leafs should still be able to land one of them at this point.

Trading Kaberle and burying Jeff Finger’s contract would have left the Leafs with about $10 M. to corner not only this market but position them to capitalize on a stifled RFA market.

When you consider names like Bobby Ryan, Niclas Bergfors, Peter Mueller, Chris Stewart, James Neal, Andrew Cogliano, Sam Gagner, Steve Downie on the Restricted Free Agent list this late in the summer, you realize that’s where the quality additions could come from. They are all unsigned this morning. The Leaf’s salary cap commitment has now taken them out of the running for any of them. If they bury Finger’s deal, they might still get one of them.

Imagine having over $10 million to spend on two or three of those names. That would have improved the Leafs significantly, both in the short term and the long run.

That’s what they have missed out on, with the inability to trade Kaberle for even a second round pick.

If you’re still happy with this outcome, you just don’t get it.

While the hope has been to exchange him for a top six forward, the fact is that no such deal has come forward. If one had, this deal would have been done by now.

Instead, we would have to think that there must be teams out there, who would trade futures, whether that means a draft pick, a top prospect or both.

This wouldn’t be a bad thing.

That way the team still gets something for a player who doesn’t fit the plan that is unfolding in Toronto.

In addition, it gives the Leafs a real opportunity to take on another free agent contract or take an unwanted contract from another team, perhaps for more assets.

We aren’t privy to the back-room discussions around the saga that will draw to a close by Monday morning. However, we can say that a failure to recoup anything for their most marketable asset will be viewed as a negative on the resume of the Leafs G M.

Check back Monday, or sooner, if a deal is done, as we recount the exciting conclusion of this drama.

Another top prospect, Jerry D-Amigo is angling for a similar status and role. The former 6th round pick of the 2009 Draft has consistently impressed Leaf brass as he has steadily improved, developed his skills and excelled in a couple of highly visible international Junior events.

He has a natural scoring touch and blazing speed, both necessities to make the next step toward an NHL career.

He was a point a game player during his first complete season at Rensselaer Polytechnical Institute this past season. He has since advised that school of his intention to try to turn pro this season in Toronto.

Certainly the opportunity seems to be there with the thin offensive ranks crying out for top prospects to fill a void.

We have seem this experiment work very well in Colorado last season, where a number of top young players, led by Matt Duchene, all made fairly successful debuts last year in one of the league’s surprise stories.

Maybe Leaf fans can expect to see a smaller scale of that type of success with two top junior graduates instead of just one that was expected.

The NHL took a stand yesterday and the league won the arbitration hearing surrounding the Ilya Kovalchuk ruling. Not only does this mean that the talented winger remains a free agent, for the time being, but it also represents a slap on the wrist of any club that thinks it can get away with artificially front-loading a long term contract to circumvent the spirit of the league’s salary cap.

The Cap system was put in place, following a year long strike, to attempt a leveling of the playing field for the 30 member clubs.

This ruling seems to favor the spirit of the salary and in this corner is viewed as a fair and just ruling.

Had this contract been upheld, it would have validated a way for the wealthier franchises to gain an unfair financial advantage over other teams.

Wasn’t that what the league has been trying to do for the last five years? If not, what was the strike for?