Full Court Analytics

NBA Story Lines Down The Stretch

2013-02-28T04:23:00.000-08:00

Story lines Worth Keeping an Eye On

As the second half, or really the latter third, of the NBA season is in full swing we can’t help but notice several story lines we need to keep an eye on.

LA’s Playoff Push

I hate writing about the Lakers, but it is starting to seem their playoff push is coming to fruition. Utah and Houston are clinging to the 7^th and 8^th seed, but it is appearing more likely that the Lakers will jump one of them into the post season.

The Jazz are the more likely candidates to fall out of the picture given their awful point guard depth which has left their crunch time decision making to the young wings of Alec Burks and Gordon Heyward. Their starting PG last night was Earl Watson and it has typically been Jamaal Tinsley. Side note, literally every team in the entire league has TWO point guards better than those two of the Jazz (some have four such as the Pistons with Calderon, Knight, Stuckey and Bynum. I’m writing this on a bus, so I don’t really have a good research tool. The only second string point guards who are worse than either Earl or JT are Chris Duhon of the Lakers….and….nope, I’d rather have Livingston and Jeremy Pargo….rather have Toney Douglas, Beno Udrih, Ish Smith, John Lucas III and AJ Price. (If you know of a worse PG rotation than the current Utah PG rotation over the last 20 years, place it in the comments below.)

Also, if the Lakers do get the 8^th seed that really sucks for the Spurs. In recent memory the Spurs always kick ass in the regular season and get screwed with a terrible 1^st rd match up. The Grizzlies were just a bad team for them to go against and facing a hot Lakers team may not be much better either.

Paul Pierce Finding the Fountain of Youth

Have you seen recent Celtic box scores lately? Ya know the ones that show Pierce flirting with a triple double on a nightly basis like it’s a girl who’s into sternum scars from across the room (too soon?).

With no PG in tow Pierce has had to take the role of play maker and has done a remarkable job doing so. Obviously he and KG form a very efficient pick and roll tandem, but Paullie is also doing a solid job getting the likes of Green, Bradley and Lee going offensively. What’s most impressive of all is how the added play making responsibilities have not hampered Pierce physically as his minute total has seen a sharp increase since Rondo’s injury.

Nobody Beats the Wiz

Since the return of Wall the Wizards are well over .500 and Bradley Beal has looked like a ROY candidate as a result. Washington’s lineup finally makes sense in the half court with an already established post and kick game with Nene/Okafor commanding double teams in the post, and now a slash and kick game with Wall’s arrival. All of this has meant more “kick outs” for Beal to take full advantage.

Is Dirk Done?

Nobody has really talked about Dallas’ pretty steep decline this season. The thought was that with Dirk’s injury the excuses were there. The interesting thing is; however, Dirk’s return has not helped the Mavs much. Dallas has a similar record pre and post Nowitzki’s return and are bracing for a huge shopping spree in the off-season, but who can they lure to play next to the quickly declining Nowitzki.

Can Bogut Give the Dubs Anything?

Andrew Bogut must be the most frustrating player to have on your roster. When he gets healthy and gives you even 25 MPG, the impacts on both ends of the floor are enormous. Bogut is a very underrated passing big man who commands double teams and can easily find open shooters like Curry, Thompson, Barnes and Jack on the perimeter. Defensively, he has always been part of one of the league’s top 10 defensive units and has had rebounding rates in the top 10% of 4/5s in the league…again all when healthy.

It seemed roughly a month ago Bogut turned a corner. The Warriors were coming back to Earth a bit record wise, but Bogut’s return helped propel their winning ways further. Now Andrew is on the shelf again. If he can make it back to full strength by the playoffs, the Warriors have a solid chance at winning a 1^st round matchup. No Bogut, no second round.

Wait… So Are the Kings Moving?

I am confused here, can someone help me out? I thought the Kings were headed to Seattle, changing their name to Sonics and bringing back Shawn Kemp for Emahot night. Now it seems Sacramento had raised some funding or something to get a new arena in order to save the team, right? Why is Stern allowing this?

No offense Sacramento fans, aka no one who reads this, you shouldn’t have an NBA team. Sacramento is close enough to Oakland/SF area and just doesn’t have the wealth, population or general basketball care to have an NBA team. Yes, they used to sell out the Arco Arena, but that was when the Kings kicked ass earlier last decade and were the most entertaining team to watch. They would've sold out if they were in Wyoming.

Seattle got screwed over big time in the OKC move and the process must come full circle so that Seattle can screw over another team to retrieve an NBA team. Bring the Kings to Seattle, if nothing else to hear the millions of comparisons from Cousins to Kemp (attitude, similar style if you look at older Kemp).

Will Granger's Return Make the Pacers a Threat to Beat the Heat?

In short, no. Hibbert is really the main player that can dominate a series against the Heat, given the team's weaknesses on the interior. If he can pull together a decent stretch towards the playoffs and prove his worth as a main post threat…maybe….maybe they lose in 7.

Can the Raps make the Playoffs after starting 4-19?

Toronto has been pretty smokin’ since the Gay deal…and yes that trade was a bit off the 180 degree path. The interesting notion is though that Rudy Gay’s play has been pretty dreadful as a Raptor. His TS% is sub 50%, yet his usage rate tips 30% on most nights. Sounds like a recipe for high usage, sub par efficiency. So how is Toronto doing this?

The emergence of DeMar has been particularly surprising since Gay’s arrival. The surprise is that both Gay and DeMar are pretty similar talents, slash heavy wings who demand a high percentage of possessions and can’t shoot too well from the perimeter. In all honesty, I thought this deal was DOA due to the redundancy of wing talent. How would one ever compliment the other?

Yet Toronto is doing it. It is mainly due to DeMar now finally within his correct usage rate, a little over 20%. There’s also less attention on DeMar which allows for him to accelerate to the lane off a Gay double team and head to the free throw line. The correct usage rate theory has also helped Kyle Lowry, who may be playing a bit too passively for my liking, but is still picking his spots offensively and not forcing the offense on his own either.

So one bad (Gay) is actually producing two positives. That and Bargnani has seen a reduction in minutes.

That always helps.

So, can Toronto continue and make the playoffs? They are 6 games behind the Bucks at this point, but have one of the easier schedules the rest of the way. I think it comes down to Friday night’s game against the Pacers and then obviously Saturday night in Milwaukee. They sweep the weekend, their in, they don’t…everyone may get fired. If you think about it, it may be the most desperate situation in the league…more so than the Lakers.

EDIT: Actually...I started writing this last night prior to Toronto taking the court in Cleveland and the Bucks playing in Houston. I thought the Raps could beat an Irving-less Cavs team and the Bucks would falter against the up tempo Rockets. Looks like the script flipped, causing what should have been a 4 game trail of the 8th seeded Bucks to now a whopping 6 games. That seems like an insurmountable amount to overcome with only 24 games left.

What a weird way to publish a post. I wrote this on the bus back from work last night and realized this morning that I forgot to publish it, so I re-read some of the stuff and had to mention that edit. Sorry for the awkwardness.

Mid-Season Awards & Juicy Predictions

2013-02-14T18:16:00.000-08:00

Mid-Season Awards and Predictions

Yeah we had early season predictions, so adding a slew of mid-season ones seems kind of cheap. Having said that, why not have some mid-season predictions/awards when more information has been accumulated? Self, I agree…on to it. Let’s start with the awards.

MVP

LeBron James

Honorable Consideration: Kevin Durant, Chris Paul

Dark Horse: Tony Parker

It’s really James’ award to lose. The efficiency numbers with the volume of shots he’s taking is absolutely absurd. Of course with Rose out for the first half, this has also seen the Heat stream roll in the Eastern Conference in the first half. The only way he doesn’t end up winning this award is an injury or that old classic, voter fatigue, which allowed guys like Karl Malone to win an MVP over Jordan in the late 90s and Nash win it over Duncan earlier last decade. An interesting side story may be how much love Tony Parker gets in MVP voting. The Spurs are among the top teams in the West and Parker is producing his best season to date. Durant is easily the favorite to be 2^nd in voting, but Parker could eventually get in the discussion if he continues this pace and the Spurs land the best record in the league at season’s end. So, basically this is a watch for who wins second in MVP voting.

Coach of the Year

Mark Jackson

Honorable Consideration: Tom Thibadeu, Mike Woodson, Greg Poppovich

Dark Horse: Frank Vogel, Doc Rivers

If you told me, after watching him as a commentator say classic things like when asked “How do you pronounce Rajon’s name RAH-DJAWN or RAY-DJAWN? – “I never get it wrong, Rondo!” that Mark Action Jackson could win a coach of the year, I’d laugh in your face. Truth is, is it really so outstanding? We’ve seen some new-ish coaches randomly win it before like Byron Scott in New Jersey or Mike Brown in Cleveland. I do think this is different and Mark does deserve much more credit and the ultimate COY accolade over those fellas from seasons past. The main reason is Brown and Scott’s winning the award had more to do with the overall underratedness at the time of James and Kidd. The main reason is how highly acclaimed are these coaches since winning the award? Now, you have to be interested in some of the dark horse candidates who may emerge from the crowd. Particularly Doc Rivers who has the Celts playing as well as anyone heading into the All Star break. If the Celts keep that hot trend in the second half and manage to secure a top 4 seed I think he wins it. Not a bad Vegas bet to place right now.

Most Improved Player

Brook Lopez

Honorable Mention: David Lee, Paul George, Kyrie Irving, James Harden, Jrue Holiday

Dark Horse: Carmelo Anthony, Grevias Vasquez

You may not find a bigger Brook Lopez hater than Eitan A Rosenberg. The guy doesn’t rebound well for a big (i.e. rebounding rate), plays in adequate help defense and is always an injury waiting to happen. Having said all that even I cannot deny the clear improvements he’s made to his game. Lopez has emerged as the Nets’ best player and is shockingly living up to the gaudy contract he signed in the off-season. The Nets are even a dark horse to go deep in the playoffs and that’s with Lopez as the focal point. Much respect is due at this point. Golden State’s Lee could surprise some voters if the Warriors find a way to finagle a top 4 seed out West. Also don’t discount Vasquez who at least wins the underrated fantasy draftee of the season.

Some other obvious awards:

Rookie of the Year – Damian Lillard

Lillard has led Portland into a playoff contender. This is the same team that is giving Luke Babbitt and Jared Jeffries meaningful minutes on a consistent basis.

6^th Man of the Year – Jamal Crawford

Craw leads the league in 4^th quarter PPG. That’s really the ultimate type of 6^th man. Someone who can close games for you on a consistent basis.

On to those juicy predictions:

Who Wins the Chip?

For all those Miami Heat fans, I say…yah likely…but ho ho hold on a second.

Yes, the Heat are favorites, but I’m not going to discount the Spurs. San Antonio looked like favorites in the midst of last season’s playoff run until game 3 against OKC flipped them on their head. I think if the Spurs can have the best record in the conference they could win the whole damn thing. Harden was an enormous factor in the Thunder series against the Spurs last season and I also think the Spurs add another major piece (Al Jefferson perhaps) at the trade deadline. For the sake of being bold, I’m calling the Spurs to win the championship. Yep…classic voter fatigue syndrome here.

Surprise Team That Makes Deep Playoff Run

As much as I’d love to say the Celtics here I just don’t see it happening. Boston is on a mighty nice run, but can they handle a New York, Brooklyn, Indiana in a first round series….ya know what they can. That’s right, switching my response as I type. I’m picking the Celts to surprise folks in the playoffs and emerge to the ECF. The other Eastern teams simply don’t wow me minus the Bulls if Rose comes back healthy which is a fairly big if. Bear in mind, the Celts did bypass the Bulls last season since Rose went down, so I do think if they met the Bulls in the playoffs Chicago wins the series. Having said that, odds seem that the Bulls end with a 4 seed and a likely 2^nd round match up with the Heat. If the Celts land a 6 or even 7 seed and a potential road to the ECF which only includes two of New York, Brooklyn, Indiana and Atlanta, I think an Eastern Conference appearance is not out of the realm of possibility.

Surprise Team That Loses In the First Round

The New York Knicks. They are still living off that ridiculously hot stretch from the first half of the season and have dropped off since STAT and Shump have returned to the lineup. If Woodson can regain that early season magic and take Shump and Amare who don’t seem to fit in the rotation, out of it, then they’ll have a deep playoff run. But if these trends continue they may just get bounced out of the first round.

Second Half Playoff Push Surprise

The Toronto Raptors. Raps are 5-2 since the Gay deal and if they can magically muster another trade which simply removes Bargnani they may have the ammo for a nutty playoff run. There’s also a likelihood that a current playoff team such as the Bucks, Celtics or even Hawks have a moderate to full fledged fire sale (Smith/KG/Pierce/Jennings are rumored in potential trades) that could leave a slot open for a team on the outside looking in to make the post season.

Biggest Disappointing Team for the Second Half

I’ll go with the Brooklyn Nets here only because I have shat on the Knicks enough in this post. I just don’t see Lopez continuing his super-hot stretch and that the honey moon of PJ Carlisiemo may soon come to an end. That doesn't mean the Nets fall out of the playoffs, but maybe they lose out on a home court seed and like the Knicks, potentially lose in the first round of the playoffs.

Biggest Disappointing Player in Second Half

How do I not say Carmelo Anthony here? Sorry Knicks fans, but it’s a simple regression towards the mean. Anthony has a career 52-53% True Shooting percentage and has had a 57% clip going in the beginning of the year which helped propel the Knicks early season success. Teams have also gotten a bit of the memo that the Knicks are going to chuck threes and that they need to match up a tallish/length SF ala Landry Fields and place him on Melo if he’s starting at the 4 rather than go with your typical bulky starting Power Forward. Those shooting stats for Melo have already began to dip as have some notable plus minus numbers when playing alongside Amare or even Shumpert. Unless New York deals those two or takes them out of the rotation it will hurt the Knicks and Melo’s overall game. Of course in the end of the day, it shouldn't be Melo who you blame for New York’s potential failure, it should be management for not cashing in on Shump while his value is high and his fit is questionable at best. Of course knowing New York media, they’ll dump on Melo real hard.

Surprise Player in Second Half

Josh Smith. Yap calling it now. If I’m Atlanta how do I not trade Josh Smith? With teams like the Suns and even Bucks expected to have gobs of cap space in the off-season and desperate to be going anywhere you better believe Mr. Smith may get that max contract he’s been coveting. Not saying he’s worth the money, but knowing that information will certainly push the Hawks to move him. If they do, I see a change of scenery being an immense help for Josh Smith. Smith also plays for a contract on a new team which will likely increase his stat lines. A pretty genius idea would be for the Spurs to get involved who do have Jackson’s expiring contract and a slew of underrated young talent in Leonard, Splitter and Blair. Not sure how a specific trade may work considering the Hawks would like to move Horford to the 4 and perhaps net some young talent in return. I would think though a Jackson/Splitter/Blair/Future pick for Josh Smith trade idea would certainly peek Atlanta’s interest and I don’t see a better deal out there for him than that.

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NBA Deadline Deals Spectacular

2013-02-12T17:37:00.002-08:00

It’s that time of year again – NBA trading deadline time. Here are a slew of talents that are rumored to be on the move by next Thursday including potential suitors, what the team should do with him and who they’ll likely get for him. Let’s get to it.

Josh Smith

Suitors: Nets, Raptors, Lakers, Mavericks, Spurs

Dark Horse: Wizards

What Atlanta Should Do: The Wizards should be a dark horse in a potential Josh Smith move. The team is over .500 since Wall has come back and are missing a go to scorer to compliment Wall. The team has a slew of mediocre assets including Seraphin, Vesley and even more mediocre in Booker and Crawford. The question really is what is Atlanta looking for in an Atlanta deal? You have to think they want a 5 to allow Horford to move to the 4 and assets couldn’t hurt in return. With the assets mentioned and two 5s on the roster, Washington does have the pieces to make it happen and Smith would look nice long term in a Wizard uni. Management in DC is also sweating a bit and GM Ernie G should get canned unless the team makes a bold move (yes desperation is a factor here). Atlanta should seek a deal surrounding Nene, top 3 protected 2013 pick and one of Vesley, Booker or Singleton. They net nice long term assets and get their dream of seeing what Horford can do at the 4.

What will likely happen: While the Nets are acting like they aren’t desperate. They are damn desperate. Mikhail Prokohov didn’t absorb the contracts of Joe Johnson and shell out for Lopez/D-Will and Crash to even finish in the second round. He seriously wants to see the team in the Eastern Conference finals this season. He said so himself. Having said that, GM King’s ass is on the line and he has already shown he is willing to move pieces and be aggressive when any talent that could make sense on the roster is available. Humphries and Brooks shouldn’t be enough to land Smith, but King will likely add Taylor in there along with multiple picks and perhaps see if Wallace has any inkling of value on the open market. I could see a three way with Utah where Wallace goes to Utah, Humphries, Brooks, Taylor, a 2015 1^st rounder from Brooklyn and the worse of Utah’s 1^st round picks in 2013 (they have theirs and likely Golden State’s) go to Atlanta, Josh Smith and Marvin Williams go to Brooklyn.

Paul Milsap

Suitors: Celtics, Knicks, Raptors, Cavaliers, Magic

Dark Horse: Nets

What Utah Should Do: The Jazz have certainly missed the boat on dealing the Milsap/Jefferson tandem and have waited until their values may not be lower due to their pending free agency. Unfortunately for Utah, many GMs don’t seem to value Milsap’s skills as much as yours truly (he’s freaking awesome!) and don’t have the glut of wings to sacrifice one in a move for Milsap. At this point in order to get a decent wing for their future such as Shumpert, Redick or even DeRozan, the Jazz will need to take back a bad contract such as Al Harrington, Andrea Bargnani or gasp…Amare Stoudemire. Those wings aren’t worth it. I’d rather deal Big Al who has more value and actually look to retain Milsap in free agency and move forward with a 3 big rotation along with Favors/Kanter. He’ll get more minutes as a result and with a contract in place his value could only increase in time for next deadline.

What will likely happen: I think Utah agrees to an extent with the above. They are trying to deal Big Al and they may be hard pressed to get decent value for both bigs. Paul fits better long term with their young bigs. That’s not to say they won’t try real hard to deal him, but will ultimately not be willing to take one of the aforementioned albatross contracts to do so. If the Nets are smart they stop their Smith chase and simply deal Hump and Brooks to net Milsap.

Al Jefferson

Suitors: Spurs, Pistons, Rockets

Dark Horse: Bucks

What Utah Should Do: The Spurs have already been involved in a rumored Jefferson deal and seem willing to deal Splitter in a move to get it done. I think if your Utah you can involve Orlando in a 3 way deal and fairly easily net JJ Redick and Al Harrington in such a move. Orlando would love Splitter long term and fully anticipate either dealing JJ or letting him walk in free agency.

What will likely happen: I think this deal honestly goes down. Fits all three teams quite nicely, Blair could get involved as well.

Dwight Howard

Suitors: Nets

Dark Horse: Hawks

What Lakers Should Do: While the Lakers may listen to some offers, it would be quite foolish to deal Howard at this point especially with an injury to Gasol. The Nets are really the only team that is confident he’d re-sign there following a trade and the best they could offer is Brook Lopez and Marshon Brooks. That return wouldn’t improve matters in LA by any means and while Lopez has looked great this season, his lack of D and constant injuries need to be a concern long term. Stand pat LA.

What will likely happen: A lot of noise, probably dominates deadline talk and nothing happens. Atlanta should at least see if LA considers a Smith/Pachulia for Howard swap. I mean why not? Smith is gone anyhow after the season and the team has been running the same middle playoff seed, can’t get past the 2^nd round treadmill for what seems like forever. If Howard comes back home and feels nostalgic maybe he and Horford are enough to come out of the East. Can Miami or anyone really compete with that front line in the East? Its very unlikely, but Smith makes a ton of sense in LA with MDA…stranger things have happened.

Eric Gordon

Suitors: Timberwolves, Raptors, Suns

Dark Horse: Pistons

What New Orleans Should Do: Stay put…please. Let this core gel a bit. Gordon’s value has taken a hit lately due to a recent series of injuries which may have GMs worrying if he’s worth his price tag simply due to health concerns. The truth is the Hornets have hovered around .500 since Gordon’s return and the core is too promising to break up at this point.

What will likely happen: I think some teams take several stabs at him, including the Raptors offering Bargnani+DeRozan+future pick, but ultimately he stays put. Detroit would be wise to get involved at this bargain offer. A Drummond/Calderon expiring and 2013 pick would be a hard offer not to accept if your New Orleans. Monroe/Gordon/Knight is mighty nice long term in Detroit. Too bad it wont happen.

Kevin Garnett

Suitors: Clippers, Spurs, Thunder

Dark Horse: Nets

What the Celts Should Do: The Thunder really are the most sensible team in a potential Garnett move. They have Jeremy Lamb, Eric Maynor and Toronto’s 2013 pick they could potentially offer in a move. Plus such a move would mean old favorite Kendrick Perkins likely comes back to Boston who is best buddies with Rondo. The Celts have been playing well of late, but odds are they still don’t go beyond the 2^nd round in the off-season and do run a risk that KG retires at season’s end.

What will likely happen: KG stays put. I know…it’s getting boring all these guys are staying put. I just don’t see a team offering more than the Clippers’ offer of Bledsoe and short contracts. That’s not enough to wet Ainge’s beak at the deadline.

Paul Pierce

Suitors: Nuggets, Clippers

Dark Horse: Warriors

What the Celts Should Do: The only team that really could make sense is Denver, but is there offer of Wilson Chandler and JaVale McGee enough? It might be, but that deal will be there most likely on draft night, so why not make one last playoff push in Boston?

What will likely happen: You really never know with Ainge, if Denver offered Chandler + McGee for Pierce I could see Ainge doing such a deal. It all depends if the Celts deal KG. Boston either deals both KG and Pierce or neither. Since it’d be hard to deal both odds are he’s staying put, but I do believe both won’t be Celtics in 2014 (KG either retires of gets dealt, Pierce gets traded to the Clippers).

Andrea Bargnani

Suitors: Bulls, Lakers

Dark Horse: Nets, Pistons

What the Raptors Should Do: With Rudy Gay, DeMar DeRozan and Lowry in their backcourt, the last thing this roster needs is more scorers. Raptors have a lot of dependency on 4/5 Amir Johnson. There really isn’t anyone else on the roster who can adequately rebound, defend the paint and give you more than 25 minutes in the process. Toronto should seek Humphries in such a deal who would fill in that role and be a better fit considering their core.

What will likely happen: I think Bargnani gets traded. To where is really the biggest question right now. He may be the hardest player to predict where he gets moved at the deadline. Rumors have Chicago in the mix which may make sense if the Bulls want to save some cap. Would a Bargnani/Fields for Gasol deal be out of the realm of possibility? I don’t think so. He makes the most sense on the Lakers truth be told and who is more desperate than LAL right now? For Toronto, their playoff hopes are seeing less and less likely. I don’t think Gasol’s injury is the biggest detriment in a trade. Toronto could start next season with a decent chance at a top 4 seed if Gasol is healthy. Where he goes it will be a surprising deal, but he will get moved.

Iman Shumpert

Suitors: Suns, Bucks, Jazz

Dark Horse: Magic

What the Knicks Should Do: Phoenix seems to want Shump fairly badly as he would be a nice fit long term in Hunter’s defensive system (can you have a system after 2 weeks?). The Suns are underrating defensive guru and efficient spacing wing Jared Dudley and may be willing to attached a top 3 protected 2013 pick along with him in a deal. If your NYK, make the deal because Dudley actually makes more sense with the current roster and odds are Glen Grunwald will net a player with eventual higher market value than Shump with a top 10 pick in 2013.

What will likely happen: Glen is one of the more underrated GMs in the league. He has made some brilliant under the radar signings in the off-season and it would not surprise me if he cashes in on Shump’s value while it is this high. I do believe either the aforementioned Phoenix deal, or perhaps a Utah deal to net Milsap is not out of the realm of possibility for New York.

RaGone For The Season

2013-02-06T19:34:00.002-08:00

Gam Zeh L’Tova

Why the recent injury to Rondo is in a weird way is actually great for the Celtics future.

Let me preface this post by saying the Celtics are better overall with Rondo on the floor. Sure some folks out there like the Celts’ play by play announcer Sean Grande have pointed out how poor the team’s offensive efficiencies are this season with Rondo and how he only shows up when the games are nationally televised.

Two very fair points.

It is true that when Rondo is on the court the rest of the Celtics do a bit of ball watching which stunts the offense and that Rajon’s inconsistent jump shot doesn’t help matters on the offensive end. Sean makes another great point as well considering how Rajon only really shows up in big games. He can average a triple double in a playoff series against the Bulls or put up 47 points in an Eastern Conference finals game in Miami, but if there’s a Tuesday night showdown in Toronto expect Rondo to play somewhat apathetically.

Given those fairly accurate statements, no one in their right mind would indicate the Celtics are indeed better without Rondo. The team really doesn’t have any other pure offensive creator and someone that can simply take over games the way he can, even if it’s only when the Celts are playing when everyone’s watching. I’d probably rather have it that way than the opposite. If you’re going to go off for 47, do it in the playoffs vs. against the Bobcats in November.

The Celts are tough minded team though with a veteran locker room. It is very likely the team bands together and makes a strong push in the playoffs and even advances in the playoffs (if they don’t face Miami in round 1) if they decide to stand put.

Super strong IF there though.

If there’s one thing Danny Ainge preached when he came to Boston it’s that he’s not afraid of making some big moves. Ask Antoine Walker, Kendrick Perkins and Al Jefferson. If there’s one GM trait that is strong with Ainge it’s the notion of self awareness.

Many general managers are unaware of the team’s current state (Bryan Colangelo says hi) and either wait too long to deal some youth in hopes of contending (remember those Blazers teams of a few years ago when it was just all potential, but they were a 50 win team) or are too impatient and deal valuable assets for veterans when the youth needs more time to gel (Ernie Grunfeld of Washington says what’s up....Lewis’ fat expiring when the hefty CBA provisions are about to kick in and you use it to net Ariza and Okafor…bleh….had the Wizards still had Lewis wouldn’t they be major players to land Rudy Gay from the cap conscience Grizzlies?...not a bad future side kick for Wall).

Not Danny Though. Which is why he is going to make moves and likely deal Pierce and Garnett (and maybe the Jet too…why not) this deadline. It’s time and Ainge also will likely learn the lesson from Dumars waiting too long to deal their vets in Detroit. Quick history lesson, Detroit in 2008 loses to Boston in 6 games in the Eastern Conference Finals. The next season they go through a tail spin, hang onto the 8^th seed only to enter the playoffs and get spanked by the James and the Cavs. The team is getting old and featuring some solid vets like Hamilton and Prince (Billups was dealt in that season for AI) with some decent trade value. Dumars essentially waits too long with these vets, who end up losing trade value and eventually become salary dumps. The Pistons inevitably rebuild too late and are now still in a long rebuilding process due to the error of waiting by Joe.

Do Pierce and Garnett have any value?

They do to the right team.

It was already reported that the Clippers were interested in Garnett, willing to trade Caron Butler and Eric Bledsoe for him. So teams are interested. Don’t sneeze too much at that value for Garnett either. Bledsoe is one of the more sought after young point guards in the league and could provide the Celtics with a great starting point guard for their future (no Rondo?...I’ll get to that in a second). Don’t get me wrong, I don’t love that trade. Ultimately for KG I’m looking at OKC who has Jeremy Lamb, Eric Maynor and Toronto’s first round pick. I would love those assets in a Garnett deal. I think OKC is realistic and understands that their current lineup may win the West, but ultimately falls to the Heat in a finals re-match (or has issues if they face the Clippers in the playoffs). Garnett is a huge piece that could easily place them over the top. Garnett for Perkins (need his contract to make it work), Lamb and that Raptors 2013 pick would be mighty nice for Boston’s future.

Next stop....beep beep Mr. Pierce.

We can look back at the Clippers and simply try and acquire those some assets for Garnett with Terry included and Odom’s expiring coming back. Yeah it’s crappy return for Pierce, but his contract isn’t too sweet given his age and the tax ramifications and the team needs a point guard for a potential leverage Rondo deal on draft day 2013 (I’ll get to that). A more realistic trade may be with Denver.

Wilson Chandler + JaVale McGee for Paul Pierce

Denver needs to consolidate their pieces a bit and find a way to advance in the playoffs. Pierce and Iggy could make a lot of sense at the wings together and could mean a nice playoff run for Denver.

Return wise for the Celts? Not too earth shattering. The saving grace though is Boston adds pieces that make a ton of sense long term with Rondo (if they want to keep him) and net some two-way talent and flat out become a deep team.

If we assume the team is on board with the OKC and Denver deals, here’s where we end up with (Rondo on the shelf):

PF B. Bass/ J. Green

SF W. Chandler/ J. Green

C J. McGee/ K. Perkins/ J. Collins

SG A. Bradley/ J. Lamb

PG C. Lee/ L. Barbosa

IR R. Rondo, J. Sullinger

Feel free to move around some parts if you prefer the KG-Bledsoe trade which was already offered FYI. Oh and if you don’t love Perkins needing to be there, we can always ship him to Golden State for Biedrins and a future pick. That good Myers? Cool thanks.

Regardless of what deals you want for Pierce and KG, the idea is to get younger and either have a team that can run with Rondo or set yourself up for a full rebuild. Here we do both.

If you’re a Celtics fan that lineup above probably makes you want to shilshul a bit. Totally understand. Heck, that team still has a decent total salary, some nice potential sure, but not enough to rebuild.

Well…just like Rome wasn’t built in a day neither is a full-fledged rebuild. Some time you need to deal a veteran for a younger talent who several GMs enamor (you’d be surprised how many GMs are actually secretly obsessed with Wilson Chandler for example).

The lineup above can easily be changed around on draft day and set the Celts up in 2014 for a major tank for what is supposedly going to be a solid draft featuring Andrew Wiggins and Jabaradi Parker.

I think that’s really the ultimate goal, to have a team ready for the 2014 tank.

Which brings us back to our original topic about Rondo. Is he really the future of the team? I think ultimately it makes sense to deal Pierce and Garnett to get younger, but really just to get bad. Get some youth in the rotation and set yourself up for a major trade fest either on draft night or next February and get ready for that 2014 draft. If that also means dealing Rondo…which it likely does…then so long Rajon.

Look, the last time the Celtics tanked in 2007 they landed the 5^th pick in a top heavy draft, missing out on Oden and Durant. Yet, they were still able to use that pick to land Ray Allen which then gave the team enough ammo to persuade KG to accept a trade to Boston which of course led to their 17^th title.

Tanking for the sake of tanking makes no sense. You want to tank this year for Cody Zeller…go ahead, your netting a solid but not great future center…aka Meh City.

But if you tank in a year when the draft is supposed to be great. That tank job actually works (ask the Spurs in ’97, Orlando in ’92, Cleveland in ’03). That is Boston’s ultimate path. To quote chumbawumba “you get knocked, but you get up again”…and yes I just ended the post by quoting tubthumping….because we’ll be singing when we’re winning.

The Pau Pickle

2012-12-14T13:05:00.000-08:00

Pau Gasol Trades That Should’ve Happened Yesterday, But Need to Happen Tomorrow.

There are a slew of surprise teams in the first month and a half of the season.

We’ve got the Eastern Conference best New York Knicks coming off some quality blow out wins including the Lakers at home (more on them later) and shellacking the Heat in Miami without Melo. How about the Golden State Warriors being in playoff positioning this deep in the season? Ellis left and Bogut has yet to appear much and when he does play meaningful minutes. The Warriors have been resilient throughout and have many people asking “Wait their among the top teams in the West?” when checking the daily standings. Props to Memphis and Atlanta for disappointing fans a season ago, to being one of the top teams in their respective conferences and giving some great hope back in the deep south. Then there are teams that we’re surprised are this competitive without a marquee talent in the lineup, like the Bobcats, Magic, Timberwolves and Mavericks.

Then of course there are some serious disappointments. Now for the sake of time we won’t go into the different levels of which teams are more disappointing than others. Sure the Sixers, Pacers and Nuggets probably thought they’d be one of the better teams in their respective conferences, but due to major injuries (Bynum and Granger) or getting acquainted (Welcome to Denver Iggy) their respective records seem about right at this point of time.

When we talk serious disappointments two teams come to mind: Los Angeles Lakers (probably clearly number one given their buzz) and the Toronto Raptors.

Let’s focus with the Lakers since they clearly have more buzz and that will allow people to hopefully place a freakin comment at the bottom of the post.

First let’s start with what we already know. We know there were major changes to the roster (Nash, Howard) and now major injuries (Gasol, Nash). We can’t simply dismiss these injuries though or blame their recent struggles on it. First, when you sign a 39 year old point guard, you have to expect endurance and health to be some concerns there. The Lakers failed to address a large need in the off-season, backup point guard, to fill in the gap when the inevitable time off for Nash was going to occur.

Now to Pau Gasol.

Now as you many of you may or may not now, I’m a huge Pau Gasol fan. He consistently has a high TS% season in-season out, always among the top 5 power forwards with a usage rate (% of possessions that player occupies when on the floor) of at least 20% and 20 MPG. Also he’s an above average rebounder (Total Rebounding Rate - % of rebounds a player collects when on the floor, average for a 4 is 18%, he’s usually between 18 – 20%) and perhaps most importantly, a willing passer with an assist rate (% of possessions that end in an assist) ranking among the top 5 with the aforementioned usage and MPG criteria. Bottom line, if we were picking teams there are fewer Power Forwards you’d rather play with than Pau Gasol.

With most teams a Pau Gasol injury would be a worthy excuse to being sub .500, but the Lakers are that talented. Kobe and Howard alone should be enough to have LA in top 4 seeding contention out West.

LA did their roster and Gasol a disadvantage. They brought in an up tempo coach who really doesn’t play well into Gasol’s strengths (low post/half court) and considering D’Antoni isn’t going anywhere soon, are better off trading him. The Lakers need help at backup point, more speed up front and more shooting all-around. The Lakers also have a huge issue with depth so a 1 for 2 deal is probably what the aim should be in a trade Pau Gasol endeavor.

First, who should be interested?

Really, everybody except teams that are real deep at the 4/5 like the Grizzlies, or those that are in pure rebuilding mode like a slew of bottom cellars (too many to list).

Second, who has a package that gives the Lakers at least three of the four items we mentioned they need (speed up front, backup point guard, shooting and depth) and could do a 2 for 1 move themselves. Honing in further, what teams see an opportunity by landing Gasol and feel he may be the missing piece of a deep playoff run?

Okay here’s who I got, Golden State, Boston, Toronto, New York, Minnesota, Brooklyn, Atlanta, Milwaukee, and Philadelphia.

Now let’s quickly sketch out what a likely trade would look like with these teams maybe a quick snippet why for each and then determine the one that makes most sense for all teams.

Golden State: David Lee and Jarret Jack for Pau Gasol and Chris Duhon

Why for LA? Lee knows Mike’s system and flourished in it a few seasons ago (hence why he has his current contract) and Jack provides much needed support behind Nash and encompasses many of the qualities (strong pick and roll play) that are successful in a Mike D’Antoni offense.

Why for GSW? When are the Warriors not seemingly desperate to make the playoffs? They have had a strong start this season, but unless they want to be a one and done, may want to think about consolidating pieces for the versatile Gasol. Pau gives the Warriors a much needed post presence with Bogut out and could propel Golden State for a deep playoff run.

Boston: Jeff Green, Brandon Bass and Courtney Lee for Pau Gasol

Why for LA? Hello depth! The Lakers need some quality bodies really everywhere and these 3 can play 30+ MPG when someone gets hurt and/or play multiple positions in LA.

Why for Boston? With Sullinger playing well and Bradley slated to come back soon there isn’t much of a need for Bass or Lee on the roster. Losing Green may hurt, but if it means giving an already strong half court team an added talent that may help them dethrone Miami, they likely jump.

Toronto: Andrea Bargnani and Jose Calderon for Pau Gasol

Why for LA? Pretty much exactly what they need in a trade: strong shooting and a strong backup point who can excel in a pick and roll offense.

Why for Toronto? The Raptors don’t own their pick and need to go for a playoff run to avoid several front office job losses. Toronto in general is simply missing intelligent basketball players who can help the youth play smarter on the court. Pau is perhaps one of the wisest players in the league and should instill a much needed culture change up north.

New York: Amare Stoudemire and Iman Shumpert for Pau Gasol

Why for LA? Like with Lee, STAT knows Mike’s system and dominated in it with two situations (Phoenix of course and the Knicks prior to Melo coming aboard). Also, who wouldn’t want to witness the Mike-STAT-Nash reunion: the twilight years. Finally, Iman is the man. Shumpert can play both guard slots and relieves some major duties that Kobe needs to fulfill on the defensive end.

Why for NY? The Knicks are on the cusp and seem so-close to contention. The Heat still have superior overall talent and would be a tough matchup for New York if they ever met up in a potential Eastern Conference Finals showdown. Adding Gasol would take advantage of Miami’s biggest weakness, low post defense, and could make the Knicks…gasp…favorites to win the title in 2012, why wait any longer?

Minnesota: Nikola Pekovic, JJ Barea and Derrick Williams for Pau Gasol

Why for LA? It comes back to depth. Barea is another great fit for a D’Antoni system and Pekovic gives much needed support at the backup 4/5 while Williams could flourish in an up tempo system and break out from Adelman’s dog house.

Why for Minny? Rick Adelman loves passing big men (see Vlade Divac) and adding Gasol could transform the Wolves into this decade’s Sacramento Kings (honestly who wouldn’t want to see that). Such a move could propel the Wolves higher up in the conference and if nothing else give further exposure to the Timberwolves. Pekovic is also a pending free agent and is expecting a large pay day if he stays with the Wolves. Is he worth 70 million? If the Wolves don’t think so, dealing him now and losing the risk of overpaying him is a sound option.

Brooklyn: Kris Humphries, Marshon Brooks and CJ Watson for Pau Gasol and Chris Duhon

Why for LA? The Lakers get some nice talent in all areas of weakness on the roster. You want hustle 4s who can run and rebound, yep we got that. A wing who can spell Kobe a bit and add much needed talent to the 2^nd unit, sure. A quality backup point who play with Mike’s system (sort of) and maybe versatile enough to play multiple guard slots, why not.

Why for BK? Is there an NBA team more currently desperate to make a playoff run than the Nets? With Lopez in and out of the lineup, the Nets need another low post talent who can also facilitate the offense and relieve some pressure on D-Will. Pau does that and, like the case with the Knicks, may then have the added talent necessary to take a stab at beating the Heat.

Atlanta: Josh Smith and Devin Harris FOR Pau Gasol and Chris Duhon

Why for LA? Smith may be the best 4 for a D’Antoni offense and Harris has another shot at resurgence in a D’Antoni offense.

Why for ATL? Gasol may allow Horford to shift to the 4 and as mentioned with every other Eastern team on the list, perhaps give the Hawks some more bite to make a deep run in the playoffs and become the Grizzlies of the East.

Milwaukee: Drew Gooden, Ekpe Udoh, Mike Dunleavy and Beno Udrih for Pau Gasol and Jordan Hill

Why for LA? Depth, shooting, hey a new one: cap space.

Why for Milwaukee: How bad do they want to make the playoffs? Getting Gasol does that, but are they willing to unload cap and decent prospects to do so?

Philadelphia: Thad Young, Jason Richardson and Dorell Wright for Pau Gasol, Jodie Meeks and Devin Ebanks

Why for LA? Shooting, speed at the 4, need I say more?

Why for Philly? Reuniting Gasol and Bynum with the rest of Philly’s young core still means promise down the road and dominance more immediately.

So what’s your favorite Gasol trade? Comment below. My take? I like them all and hear all cases. The one that makes the most sense? Probably Golden State, I mean they were mentioned first on the list for a reason.

Be a leader, comment below…not on Facebook.

Happy Chanukah!

The All Thanksgiving Duo

2012-11-22T12:56:00.000-08:00

Two Players To Be Thankful For on This Thanksgiving Day

If you want to find the best players in the NBA go search for another list. Here we will discuss the top two players fans, teams, or management should really be most thankful for due to one reason or another.

Paul Pierce

In most cases a player with Pierce's talents either would have demanded a trade mid-way through the last decade when Celtics Basketball took a back seat to the D2 frozen four. Either that or a team he was on would have explored a trade to completely revamp or rebuild their situation. Let's examine similar scenarios.

Tracy McGrady was a high scoring, do-it-all offensive wing with Orlando during this same time frame. Magic fans and management were fed up; however, due to the consecutive strings of first round playoff exits. This was really not due to McGrady at all as anyone who examines his advanced stats don't speak of his scoring prowess, which is evident when you just look at the box scores, but of his impressive assist rate which was at least 23% (i.e at least 23% of possessions that went through him led to assists) every year since the new millennium.

Yet as we anyone who follows sports knows, the first person to really get a hefty amount of criticism when things don't go as planned for a franchise is the star player. As a result McGrady was eventually traded to Houston.

How about we go slightly old school...late 80s-early 90s style.

Charles Barkley was left as the leader in Philadelphia after iconic years from Moshe Malone and Dr J. Like McGrady though, fans and management were fed up with the early playoff exits and dealt him for a slew of role players which included sharp shooting Jeff Hornacek.

The similar cases though were the results of both Philly and Orlando after they dealt their current franchise players. The Magic landed a young, but quickly declining Cuttino Mobley and Steve Francis who immediately turned the Magic from playoff hopefuls to Ping Pong promises (eh I don't like the alliteration much either...too bad, not editing). The Sixers endured a decade of misery while the Suns, Barkley's new team, won the West his first season and enjoyed a slew of 50+ win seasons in the 90s.

The Celtics of course stayed course which is typically riskier.

Teams are typically afraid to deal their youth at a chance of contention (see Eric Bledsoe with the Clippers...shout out to previous post), but at times are better off doing so since the chances of that young stud really amounting to much is less likely than they realize. This was the case as far as a few years ago with perceived studs such as Roddy Beabouis of Dallas, Anthony Randolph when on Golden State, Jeff Teague of the Hawks, Omri Casspi earlier when on Sacramento, or Nicolas Batum on Portland.

Teams just need to view their players like stocks. They need to understand when their market values (i.e. what teams perceive their worth is) are far higher than their book values (what their actual worth is) and cash in on perception. The Celtics were smart with Pierce.

Danny Ainge did try dealing Paul back in 2005 to Portland for Nick Van Axel's expiring contract and the third pick of the draft which he wanted to use on Chris Paul. When that deal fell apart, he didn't try dealing Pierce for less than his book value and instead kept him.

Pierce deserves much of the credit here dodging trade rumors, sticking with a mediocre rosters, and finally reaping the rewards of a major trade to net hall of famers and start a new dynasty in Boston.

Celtic fans and management need to be thankful for being patient with Paul, not dealing him for less than his worth, and being able to retain this truly underrated ageless wonder.

Zach Randolph

This may sound like a strange player to be on the list.

Who should be thankful for a black hole, offensive only oriented player?

Randolph has really had many of these similar labels throughout his career and they are somewhat warranted. Call him the anti-McGrady, Zach has only had one season in his career (last year in fact) where is assist rate was over 11%.

Unlike some players though, you have to know what you're getting with Zach. If you need someone to score he's your guy. If other players need the ball to be successful, look elsewhere.

As a result Zach was passed through teams that didn't specifically need his skill set and his play and his market value suffered as a result.

First he was in Portland and jockeying with then franchise man, Rasheed Wallace, for minutes touches and technicals. Portland forced a rebuild and of course shipped him immediately. Then he came to perhaps a worse situation than the Jail Blazers to the Isiah Thomas Knick era.

The Knicks already had a then young Eddy Curry who needed possessions in the post and of course a slew of chuckers that included Stephon Marbury, Jamal Crawford and Quentin Richardson. There was really no room for Randolph with New York's offensive dominated lineup. Eventually the Knicks realized this and were thankful for unloading Randolph to the Clippers for expiring contracts for the next season.

Randolph of course didn't fair much better in LA as he was dealt again for pure contract space to Memphis. What a toll, for a selfish albeit talented player. Dealt three times in a span of a few years for what really is utter crap. A Mobley expiring, a Francis contract, and a deal involving Quentin Richardson. This isn't Ala Albdanley...it's Zach Randolph.

Finally he came to Memphis.

Remember Memphis acquired Randolph more for his contract then his actual talents. You see Randolph had a unique escalated salary contract which allowed a team to pay a percentage of his contract now and the rest via a loan later. Because of this, Memphis was able to stay under the minimum salary allowable for a roster and thrifty owner Michael Heisley who was trying to sell the team was thrilled.

Little did Memphis realize they actually netted an All Star for about 5 cents on the dollar.

Randolph took his aggression from all of those years of under appreciation, quick trades, and fans dogging on him on the rest of the Western Conference. Zach certainly stuck with it amidst nearly a decade of turmoil and has resurrected his career. If there was a most improved player over a decade span he certainly earns it.

Kudos Mr. Randolph...Mr. Pierce as well. Gobble Squared.

Putting the Crazy LA LA in Los Angeles

2012-11-15T18:51:00.002-08:00

What’s been happening in LA? A Crazy Call You Have to Read to Believe

The Lakers got into panic mode really quickly this season. What’s even more comical about their recent sense of urgency is that no one is surprised. Mike Brown let Kobe control the team and had some very questionable coaching decisions in recent memory. Two major items standout: one micro, one macro.

Micro blunder

Let’s start in the Western Conference finals last season with the Lakers down two to the Oklahoma City Thunder and 7 seconds left on the clock. The Lakers called time out and coach Brown designed a play that was supposed to get Kobe a clean look and potentially send the series back to LA with the Lakers in control.

Now many of you remember what happened next. Peace couldn't find a cutting Bryant sprinting away from the ball towards the far corner and instead found an open Steve Blake who missed the three, game over, OKC controls series.

You shouldn't mind that look by Blake. He’s an efficient spacing point guard who has hit that three on many occasions. What I do mind is the play itself. Brown had designed a play where the intended recipient needed to cut away from the ball requiring Peace to turn into Aaron Rodgers in order to make the appropriate pass across the court to find him.

That play was dissected to death by the media afterwards and opened up many glaring questions around Brown’s late game coaching, particularly due to how hard he defended it afterwards.

Macro blunder

We need to discuss this Princeton offense thing for a moment. The team just inherited two hall of famers and had arguably the most talented starting lineup in the NBA, certainly the Western Conference. That also means you have two players who need to learn your system and get acclimated so their talents can take care of the rest.

Instead of keeping last season’s offensive system which would require only Nash and Howard to learn, Brown opted for a new offense which would require the entire team to learn from scratch. If you have a lot of changes in your lineup, have the most talented team in the conference, why would you drastically change your offensive set?

Enter D’Antoni

FYI, I don’t hate this hiring.

Everyone is talking about Phil Jackson and that LA needed to ensure they signed him with such a talented team. Personally, I’m not buying Mitch Kupchack’s statement that the team was wary of their players fitting well in the triangle.

I do feel Phil wanted to be GM/Coach of the team and wanted full power or at the very least Mitch felt threatened that this would inevitably occur. Either way, I likely would have done the same move if I were Mitch.

Would you hire someone who has already mentioned his goal is to literally take your job in the near future? Someone who is honored constantly by the media, fans and most importantly your ownership and franchise player?

Also, don’t sniff at Mike being an assistant with team USA and coaching Kobe during the last several Olympics helping either.

Finally, there’s obviously the whole Nash familiarity and the ability to run the floor with Dwight Howard at the 5.

Guess what though. The Lakers are not what’s interesting that’s happening in LA LA Land.

Great, the Lakers panicked and hired a new coach. Good for them. They still won’t win the West. Neither will OKC due to Harden leaving and now an over dependency on Westbrook in particular.

You know who will? That other LA team. That’s right Johnny, let’s go Clippers!

Why the Clippers are legitimate contenders

Contending teams require, for the most part, the following attributes (yes I like lists).
High usage rate player who combines that with high True Shooting percentage and decent assist rate. Meet Chris Paul.

High rebounding rate and proper interior defense including good help D – D’Andre Jordan is one of the more polished shot blockers in the league and Blake has shown major progress in this area.

Quality off ball role players with high true shooting percentages – This may seem like a random little addition for contenders, but think about every championship winner. They’ve all had role players who were very efficient off the ball shooters (Bulls-Paxson/Armstrong/Kerr, Spurs-Horry/Kerr/Bonner, Lakers-Shaw/Fox/George, Celtics-House/Posey). The Clippers are very strong in this area with Matt Barnes, Chauncey Billups (when healthy), and Caron Butler.

Complimentary Talent – Blake Griffin is ready to bolt as a number two weapon here and as he and CP3 play more together, his overall game should surely grow as a result.

You know what else the Clippers have? One of the most underrated role players in the last decade, Matt Barnes. Barnes has consistently finished in the top 10 unadjusted on-off net rating among wings over the past 5 seasons. The stat measures the net difference per 100 possessions of a certain player on the court vs. off the court. Over is career Matt’s units were a net 5 points better when he was on the floor.

Depth is a key factor in the regular season, but strong 6-8 man rotations are needed in the playoffs. Clippers have both a strong deep rotation to go through 82 games, but also a condensed version that may be stronger than any out West.

Clipper fans need not get too excited though, sorry Clipper Darryl

LA may have one of the worst head coaches in the game in Vinny Del Negro. Vinny has long been criticized as a poor coach among some of his peers and according to several inside sources of yours truly.

Also, being as close as they are to contention, LA should really cash in their biggest trade chip and net a nice 3^rd banana that could put them over the top.

Eric Bledsoe is that asset and has shown enough signs that may lead a team to believe he could be their future starting point guard. The Clippers already have Jamal Crawford who could play point guard some and really only need a body for 10-15 minutes a night behind CP3. A Chris Duhon, Ish Smith, or even Earl Boykins who is a free agent would do just fine.

Now the fun part.

Let’s concoct some trade ideas involving Bledsoe, likely Caron Butler since he has a contract that should fit a player in such a role, and everyone’s favorite cherry an extra first round pick.

What can that package net? How about Danny Granger

The Pacers have performed well over the years without Granger in their lineup and are in desperate need of a future point guard. Look, I don’t love Granger, but he would certainly fit as that off the ball wing that can help Blake and Chris on the offensive end more and keep defenses from trapping on the two All Stars.

The bigger question is whether the Clippers are gutsy enough to make such a move. They already showed their willingness to push the chips in the pot with the Chris Paul trade, now will they make one final move to help secure their title hopes?

If they don’t they risk not only losing the Western conference, but perhaps Chris Paul himself to free agency.

LA sure is nuts! There’s a reason they call it LA LA land…cue cheesy womp womp.

Early Tells, Early Predictions

2012-11-08T18:18:00.000-08:00

Early Tells, Early Predictions

Okay, so I missed the boat for NBA season predictions since, well, the season already started. I’d rather not throw out a fairly obvious slew of predictions which would include the Heat winning the title and LeBron landing MVP. Maybe less obvious predictions would be Damian Lillard over Anthony Davis for ROY, Greg Monroe for MIP, and Rick Adelman for COY.

Here are some perhaps more random, but less obvious predictions I will make based on both the early season results, but also trends coming into the season.

Cleveland, Get Excited

We can talk about how it has been a rough few years for Cleveland Cavaliers fans. Yes, it starts with LeBron leaving, but also continues with the aftermath. First there was owner Dan Gilbert making the most absurd claim perhaps of all time that the Cavaliers would be champions before the Heat. I wonder what the Vegas odds would have been that a team with no sign at the time of a franchise player led by Daniel Gibson and Baron Davis’ contract would be closer to winning a title than another in a much more marketable location with three future hall of famers in their prime. Then you have to point out the JJ Hickson deal. It was a relatively small blip on the Cavs series of moves over the past few years, as neither player in the move (my man Omri being the piece coming to Cleveland) made any real impact for their respective team. What is more interesting though is that roughly over a year prior to that trade, Cleveland was being offered Amare Stoudemire for an expiring contract and JJ Hickson. Cleveland was so high on Hickson that they nixed a deal to net Amare, who may have altered their title chances in James’ last season and instead just dealt the expiring for Antawn Jamison. Let’s move on to present day.

Cleveland, your savior was always with you and it’s not who you may think

Kyrie Irving is an incredible young talent who really does everything you want out of a future franchise stud.

1. High usage rate combined with high true shooting percentage – check

2. High usage rate combined with solid assist rate – are you kidding? Check that sucker

3. Solid on ball and off ball defense – check, see his synergy stats for more details

4. Young as hell – he’s not old, check

5. Solid contract and likeliness of staying long term – likely a check here, but there are no guarantees.

6. A great first name the crowd can randomly chant if he’s on fire – two syllables works well….Ky-reee! Ky-reee! Check Check (actually that chant is for random Czech triple backup center Klabo Foreign).

Guess what though, he’s not the savior. Spoiler alert, it’s Anderson Varejao.

Varejao, perhaps one of the most underrated centers in the game, is one of the few bigs in the league to consistently have a rebounding rate over 16% (average for a 4/5 is 13%, and yes that 3% difference is bigger than his hair), and a defensive rating above -3.5 each season (indicating the team allows 3.5 fewer points per 100 possessions when he is on the floor). It’s no coincidence that Cleveland was flirting heavily with .500 last season until he got hurt.

Cleveland also made a gutsy surprise pick on draft day and selected the overweight, but still efficient Dion Waiters with their 4^th pick. It’s usually not a great sign when a young rookie has weight issues, especially at the wing, but you can’t deny Dion’s overall game which should make him a consistent top 5 round pick in fantasy basketball roto leagues over the next 10 years.

After those three the Cavs still have solid young bigs of Tyler Zeller and Tristian Thompson not to mention a boat load of cap space in the off-season. So the final prediction here isn’t that the Cavs will be good, it’s that they are already good.

Prediction: Cavs will make the playoffs and will beat the Heat in one game of their first round series…and it’s going to be legendary.

Lakers will make a desperation trade at the deadline

I don’t think this is going so far out on a limb, but even if things get better for the Lakers, as long as they’re not first in that conference I think they’ll slam that panic button. First off, originally the prediction was going to be that Mike Brown would be fired by February. Then I thought about it and felt even if he were fired by February I still think the Lakers will make a big trade.

So who to trade? There are several notions to throw out here. First off, we’ll assume Steve Nash is healthy at this point in time. The deal could still involve netting a point guard, but that route doesn’t seem as likely with another team not willing to take on Nash and really giving the Lakers something of value they can throw at the 1. The name to look at yet again has to be Pau Gasol. Gasol has been in trade rumors for a number of years and is perhaps not only the most underrated player on his team, but one of the more underrated big men in the league. He would be far more effective on a team with a coach and franchise player that understood how dominant he can truly be given more touches.

Next, let’s determine who would be interested in Pau. Perhaps the Grizzlies could pair him up with his brother in a deal that could involve Z-Bo and Rudy Gay (not both going to the Lakers, but part of a potential 4 way deal where Z-Bo goes to Brooklyn, Kris Humphries and Rudy Gay go to LA, a future Nets first, Pau Gasol and MWP go to Memphis). How about the Atlanta Hawks in a deal to snag Josh Smith and add some younger legs to run the floor with Nash? Heck, even the Celtics could be interested and deal Kevin Garnett and Jeff Green for Pau Gasol and Peace coming to Boston. Sound crazy?…because it is.

In short, the call here is that LA will both fire Brown and deal Gasol by the deadline with their main targets being youth either at Power Forward seeking Josh Smith or at Small Forward seeking Rudy Gay.

Stay tuned.

Brooklyn will miss the playoffs and their minds

Honestly I didn’t think this was going to happen with D-Will being retained and Crash healthy. It seems kind of inevitable now though. The Nets seem to be operating similar to the Knicks when Thomas was at the helm, looking more at players who have a track record of scoring over any other significant statistic (it’s why I mentioned them in the Z-Bo move, how Isiah would that trade be?). They have also shelled over 25 million dollars a season to Humphries and Lopez and are already regretting that decision. Speaking of bad contracts Joe Johnson was another cluster eff word move that got the Nets in further luxury tax land.

The owner obviously has the money to pay for any excessive tax, but that doesn’t mean early firings for the coach, GM and perhaps a bevy of moves to right the ship. Looking at the lofty claims the owner has made about when he expects the team to be a title contender, this thing has early millennium Knicks written all over it.

Carmelo Anthony finishes second in MVP voting

I can’t believe I just typed that.

I am as shocked as you are.

Look, the Knicks have made a series of intelligent moves in the off-season, behaving almost as polar opposites of their cross city rivals. The success of the team will likely be due to several other key factors not named Carmelo.

Tyson Chandler being an excellent off the ball defender and having a high rebounding rate, which he typically does (assuming he’s healthy). Ronnie Brewer emerging as the most underrated pick up of the off-season with Felton not being far behind as both have given the team a solid backcourt defensive tandem with high assist rates. Coach Mike Woodson finding a way to have Amare co-exist with the ball dominant Melo in the half court, perhaps regulating him more to play with the second unit.

So, I’m not giving that much credit to Melo here. I just know how MVP voting will work. The voters don’t look at stats like adjusted plus minus, rebounding or assist rates, or points per possession...you know the ones that lead to wins. They look at good teams and who leads them in scoring.

Simply put, the Knicks have a legit chance of finishing the regular season with a 2 seed in the East and with OKC perhaps falling back with the loss of Harden in the West that may be enough for Anthony to steal some MVP votes away from Durant.

Still, even after that excuse it’s still crazy to believe that can actually happen.

Just crazy enough to make this prediction…. I still can’t believe I typed this last paragraph.

Houston: We Have A Stud - Analyzing the Harden to Rockets Trade

2012-10-28T20:06:00.000-07:00

James Harden is Better Than You Think

Let's re-evaluate the biggest trade thus far this off-season. Harden to Houston? No, let's discuss Dwight Howard's move to the Lakers.

Howard deal in a semi large nut shell

Dwight Howard will likely finish his career as one of the top ten greatest centers ever. Heck, maybe ten is too high. Who's better than him in NBA history, or rather, if the following centers were in their prime who would you take and in what order (honestly, I'd like to know, post your order in the comments section...do it...c'mon)?

Shaquille O'neal, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain, Hakeem Olajuwon, Patrick Ewing, David Robinson, Bob Pettit, Bob Lanier, Nate Thurmond, Wes Unseld, Alonzo Mourning, Moses Malone, Bill Walton, Dwight Howard

Regardless, this league is empty of centers. Let's do the same ranking game with current 5s in the league (post yours in the comments section).

Dwight Howard, Marcin Gortat, Andrew Bogut, Nene, JaVale McGee, Al Horford (more of a 4), Anderson Varejao, Serge Ibaka, Joakim Noah, Andrew Bynum, Greg Monroe, Roy Hibbert, Omer Asik, Tyson Chandler, Brook Lopez and Marc Gasol.

FYI the above is in random order. Want better proof than just names? How about the max or near max deals shelled out in the past two summers to Roy Hibbert, Andrew Bynum, Brook Lopez, Tyson Chandler, Marc Gasol and the perceived nutty amount of money shelled out to Omer Asik (Another FYI, I like the Asik deal).

Why is this important? It shows how significant Dwight Howard really is. Teams are willing to spend boat loads of money on half-way decent centers, none of whom currently even sniff the jock strap of Mr. Howard.

Right I know....Howard is great. So What?

Well, now let's circle back to the original point, the Howard to Orlando deal.

Orlando dealt a future hall of famer who also plays the most sought after position in the league, who they knew they could not keep, for guard Arron Afflalo and forward Al Harrington from Denver and forward Moe Harkless and center Nikola Vucevic from Philadelphia and forward Josh McRoberts and guard Christian Eyenga from the Lakers. Sure they dealt the bad contracts of Chris Duhon and Jason Richardson (FYI, 3rd FYI of the post, J-Rich's deal isn't a bad one. More than likely last seasons's low 3 FG% of 36.8% was flukey considering it was the lowest since his rookie year), but also netted the bad contracts of Al Harrington and really Arron Afflalo who is paid way too much for an efficient, but low usage rate wing.

Now, OKC is kind of in a similar situation with Harden that Orlando was with Howard. There was no Dwightmare or in James' case, Hardened View, but the notion was the same. Up-coming free agent that will get max deal can't stay with current team. Harden's reasons seemed financial, Dwight's a bit douchier, more fame perhaps? Either way both teams needed to deal their respective talents.

The returns of the trades

So we saw what Orlando got in that deal. Odds are unless you follow the NBA religiously, you haven't heard of every player in that trade. If you're a casual fan, have you even heard of the main pieces in the deal?

Quick, 5 seconds, what teams have Arron Afflalo played for? Did you know that without Google-ing it? Well, either way, he was the main part of that Howard trade.

OKC received Kevin Martin, Jeremy Lamb and a slew of draft picks in exchange for Harden. That's a much better return than what Orlando received for Dwight.

Sounds like a clear rip-off for Houston then, right?

Not so fast.

It's a bit different because Harden's issue was financial. He wanted more money. He wanted a MAX deal. He'll get one with Houston. So the Rockets, unlike the Lakers, know the player they received via trade will likely stay there long term.

Another factor, the 2-guard slot is perhaps just as scarce as the center slot in the league

Remember that center list from earlier?

Let's see the top shooting guards in the league today:

Kobe Bryant, Iggy, Joe Johnson, Dwayne Wade, Kevin Martin, James Harden, Paul George, Eric Gordon, Tyreke Evans, Manu Ginobili and I am struggling to find more names.

Pretty weak, especially when we compare it to other times in NBA history. This is true with centers as well.

Let's focus a bit more on the stud that is James Harden.

Three factors are crucial in a franchise player.

I won't go into all of the factors that go into a franchise player, but three main ones you want initially are young age, ability to occupy a decent portion of possessions, and either have a high true shooting percentage (TS%) or high assist rate (AR), both...nuch besser.

Harden is 23 years old - check

Harden occupied over 20% of OKC's possessions last year, bear in mind that's with Westbrook and Durant, two extremely high usage rate possessors on the roster. - check

Harden had a TS% of 66% last season (average is 52.7%) and AR of 24.7 (average is 19.2) - check on both.

To put that full list of very critical stats in perspective, no player in the league last season...not even LeBron James, combined a usage rate of over 20%, with a TS% of over 61% and an AR of over 24%. Oh, did I mention he's only 23.

Fact, James Harden inhibits skills that very few wings in this league have and is only now starting to enter his prime.

Did Houston make a good trade here? Aw hell yeah!

Not to trash OKC here, but they got a great deal as well considering their situation. They knew they could not afford Harden and were able to net quality replacements in Kevin Martin and a young Jeremy Lamb in this trade. Hell, they got several picks too! Not shabby.

Don't knock Houston or Harden here though. GM Daryl Morey made a slew of heavily criticized, but underrated moves this off-season in signing Omer Asik, Jeremy Lin (I'm not going to defend that in this post, but maybe another one. Quick snippet version, he'll sell out crowds and though his sample size was small last year, few players ever had that advanced stat line over a 26 game period) and now with the Harden deal.

James was masked a bit, being the 3rd banana in OKC's system and regulated to 6th man. He'll be a focal point for defenses in Houston. This could effect him a bit, sure, but still worth a nice calculated risk for Houston.

Final prediction: James Harden is that good, he's only 23 and in his first year he will lead the Rockets to the playoffs.

One mistake OKC may have made.  Did they explore all options to really clear enough cap space to sign Harden to a max deal or did they simply not think he was worth such a large contract?

I would have explored Perkins or even Ibaka deals, to try and shed some salary and get cap back some talent in the process (how about Perkins for Pachulia, similar but worse talent, and nice salary shed...I think Atlanta does that too!).

Either way he's gone now, and perhaps so are OKC's title hopes. Now there's new hope in Houston and a young star to help lead the way.  Can Harden be a number one guy? The advanced stats seem to say so and the system in Houston should cater to his skill set well.

Well done, Houston, well done.

You Just Got Forked - Basketball Purgatory

2012-10-25T18:13:00.000-07:00

Basketball Purgatory: The NBA’s Version of No Man’s Land

Every season you have a small set of teams that are at the bottom and likely lottery bound and an even smaller amount that have a true chance at a championship. In actuality, the 30 teams in the league can be classified in even more ways.

The New York Yankees

First off, you have your teams who believe they are title contenders. This list consists not only of the legit title contenders (i.e. teams that GMs have voted to win the title, see previous post), but also of teams who have maxed out their cap space and are in title or bust mode. If they don’t win the title the fans of those teams will be disappointed along with players and front office personnel alike. This is also known as the Yankees every year. This list of course includes the Heat, Lakers and Thunder, but also the Celtics and Spurs.

Strategic Hopefuls

Now let’s check out the opposite side of the spectrum. Yes, these may be lottery bound teams but they have a plan in place for the future. These teams either have a lot of cap flexibility, hefty minute allocation towards their youth, or perhaps both. A good name here are the Strategic Hopefuls due to a likely organized strategic way of trying to get themselves eventually back (or perhaps for the first time) to contention. This list includes the Bobcats, Cavs, Magic, Kings, Pistons, Rockets, Hornets, Blazers and Suns (albeit unintentionally).

Some of you may say that it seems like you are either rebuilding or contending, well we’re not done with the groups yet.

Up and Comers

I know, real cliche title. These teams have a solid youth core, perhaps some veterans, and seem poised to be title contenders…next year, or maybe the year after. Still, kudos to their front office as they are likely going to advance beyond the first round of the playoffs and have a core that should be in the mix for the championship circa 2015. Our potential ’15 title contenders are the Sixers, Pacers, Nuggets, Grizzlies, Timberwolves, Hawks and Jazz.

An Injury Away

Another real simple title here. The following teams may have little cap flexibility, but they do have star power, pure talent and could flirt with a deep run in the playoffs. Heck, if someone from a top team (Heat, Lakers, Thunder) get hurt they have a chance to catapult up to that Yankees list. These teams are essentially an injury away, albeit from one of their competitors, of being a threat in the post season. The teams that may look to hire a mobster to hurt either LeBron or Durant are the Knicks, Bulls (assuming Rose is healthy) and Clippers.

NBA Purgatory

Oh you didn't see your favorite team on any of the above list…uh oh.

The in-betweeners, the stuck in the middlers, or how about the what the hell are you freakin doingers. Whatever you want to call them, these teams are essentially in the worst situation of any group. Too little cap flexibility or enough trade assets to make serious moves to become a contender and essentially too good to build through the draft or due to cap restraints, through free agency. These are essentially fork in the road teams, except they are the fork. Your forkers are the Wizards, Bucks, Mavericks, Warriors, Nets, and Raptors.

What went wrong?

These teams made some classic humanistic errors. You can call them over-eager. They were young at one point, had a surprise season and sniffed the playoffs. Then their GMs went truly nutty and just spent their cap space too soon and showed tremendous impatience.

You can simply call them delusional. They think they are more talented than they are, have set high standards and will get disappointed quickly as they already have tried spending their way to contention. The latter thinking is typically where you see firings occur.

Let’s hone in on each team and see what went wrong.

Golden State Warriors – Were they ever right?

The Warriors had only made the playoffs once since 1994. More than half of the teams in the league make the playoffs in a season and the Warriors only made it one time in an 18 year span. Here’s what likely went wrong. In 1995, the Warriors had the first pick of the draft and selected Joe Smith, solid vet, but certainly not a star. Later in the 2000s they had a slew of top 10 picks, including several in the top 10, but Jason Richardson, Mike Dunleavy JR and Troy Murphy just became overpaid rotational talent. Golden State essentially compounded their errors. Not only did were they consistently not netting studs in the draft, but when their drafted players' contracts were up, they were paying them like franchise saviors. Also, Golden State didn't strike out in the draft which is actually not a great thing. Sounds strange right? Well, the Warriors kept netting good, not great talent which would lead to a good, not great team. Fast-forward to today the Warriors have a nice young core in place in Curry and Thompson but have over spent on injury prone or non star like vets in Bogut and Lee and thus lack the flexibility needed to really take the team to the next level.

Washington Wizards – Arenas wasn't the problem

The Wizards were almost there, they were so close.

To a title?

Heaven’s no... To building a team the right way.

They had extreme cap flexibility due to Rashard Lewis’ eventual expiring contract and had a plethora of young big men between Vesley, Booker, Seraphin and McGee who were improving talents. Sure the team may have headed back to the lotto assuming no moves were made, but perhaps with a nice draft pick, strategically using their cap space in trades to net even more promising talent, the team could be contenders in a few seasons. Too bad they jumped the gun.

It is somewhat understandable dealing McGee due to his bone headed plays and bad karma with the team, but to get an aging, injury-prone center on a long contract who actually makes the team sniff .500 is not the greatest thing. Like the Warriors, the Wizards compounded their errors. Seeing that Nene made the team a legit 8^th seed, first round exit threat, management decided to go full throttle and added veterans Trevor Ariza and Emeka Okafor while dealing one of their most promising assets, Lewis’ massive expiring contract.

This is the NBA’s form of P.E.

Mavs, Raptors, Nets - I get it.

Dallas is aging and can’t deal their franchise loveable German just yet. Keeping him; however, ensures the team is talented enough to at least sniff the playoffs, but can’t further develop any youth via minutes or touches.

The Raptors added Lowry which puts them in this list as well not to mention the contract shelled out to Bargnani. This could be a GM trying to interview for his next job though. Colangelo is on the last year of his deal and likely would like to at least show his team improved on his next job interview.

The Nets just moved to Brooklyn and are desperate to make some noise in the much hyped up move. Their owner also has the money to blow and seems more than happy with a few sell outs and an early playoff exit.

Bucks – I don’t get it

The Bucks simply make little sense. They have a high usage point guard who is trigger happy, so they pair him with a similar talent in Ellis? Also, both are upcoming free agents. They also have a plethora of young big men but shelled out cash to the never young Samuel Dalembert?!

These teams are never truly stuck as there are GMs out there who may take on an expensive aging vet for a title run and/or be interested in their youth for a chance at rebuilding. The choice is up to these teams though to make sure they do such moves sooner rather than later. Or else, they’ll end up like the Warriors…which sort of like the Yankees…seem to always say hey, fork it!

Can the Lakers Win It All? Just Ask Kobe

2012-10-24T18:08:00.002-07:00

Should the Lakers be Considered Favorites to win the Title?

A poll was done this past week surveying GMs across the league asking them who would win the 2013 NBA Championship. First off, it is at the very least refreshing to see majority of GMs honest with their teams current situations and not immediately say their own franchise would be crowned champs in 2013 (with the exception of 3 of course). The poll showed that roughly 70% of General Managers in the league felt the Miami Heat would repeat as champions, followed by 24% for the Los Angeles Lakers and 6% for the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Those three seem like plausible choices to receive the O’Brien in July, but the percentages are what’s interesting. Bear in mind the Miami Heat were a Boston 4^th quarter collapse from not even making the finals this past summer. They did add some nice shooters in Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis, but their moves pale in comparison to those made by the Lakers.

LA has added a boat load of talent

The Lakers added two eventual Hall of Famers to a team that was already good enough to make the Western Finals last year. Looking at both lineups briefly the talent level is at least even, one could theoretically make an argument for either Miami or LA being the better team on paper. Nash/Kobe/MTP/Gasol/Howard or Chalmers/Wade/James/Bosh/Anthony…it’s certainly close…closer than 70% vs. 24%.

So why are GMs that much more sour on the Lakers chances than the Heat? Truth is, the percentage for LA should actually be smaller.

The Lakers have extremely efficient performers namely Pau Gasol now joining Steve Nash and Dwight Howard in the fray. The bigger question is will they all even have enough touches?

Kobe loves his touches

Last season Kobe Bryant occupied over 37% of the Lakers’ possessions when on the floor. Let’s do some simple Math. There are 5 players on the floor, so the average player should have a usage rate of 20% (100%/5). Now the point guard brings the ball up the floor and typically starts many of the team’s sets, so we would expect his usage rate to be above 20%, likely in that 22-23% range. If we remove that point guard there should be roughly 77% to be split among the remaining 4 members of the unit.

Let’s dive further. Last season the Lakers had spot-up point guards on the floor for majority of the time (namely Steve Blake and Derek Fisher) whose usage rates were far lower than a regular point guard, more in the 15-18% range. Next season Steve Nash should command a usage rate that is more typical with your average point guard, at around 22-23% (which would be a slight dip from his Phoenix days which we can assume since he is going to a team that won’t rely on him as much to be the sole offensive table setter). So again, that means 77% split among the remaining 4 players: Howard, Gasol, Peace, and of course Mr. Bryant.

If Kobe occupies 37% of possessions then that’s 40% (77% - 37%) to be split among Howard, Gasol and Peace. Let’s assume Peace occupies the same usage rate he did last season (roughly 15%) then that’s only 12.5% a piece for the most efficient 4/5 tandem in the league in Gasol and Howard, far less than the league average. You may say why would Peace have any usage rate there? Even the most defensive minded/ off the ball 3s in the league have usage rates in double figures as they will inevitably have a portion of the possessions run through them just by being on the floor and playing closer to the perimeter (as Peace does).

You may be thinking that last season was an aberration for Kobe, but the Lakers did still have the most efficient 4/5 tandem in Bynum and Gasol and majority of possessions did not go through either of them.

Are things different now for the Lakers?

Things are a different now with Steve Nash though. If he runs the offense accordingly you better believe Kobe will see less touches, but how much less? Also, how many less possessions would he need to occupy for the team to be optimal in offensive efficiency?

Those answers are uncertain, but let’s think conservatively. Let’s say due to Nash and a fondness to see Howard in the post more, Kobe’s usage rate drops to 30%. That now means 32% between Howard and Gasol, 16% each and still far less than the league average. The goal should be to have your most efficient offensive talents see as many touches as possible, or in the Lakers’ case above league average. In order for that to happen, Kobe would need to play primarily off the ball and drop his usage rate all the way down to 22% (100% - 23%[Nash] – 15%[Artest] – 40%[Howard/Gasol]). Considering Kobe’s need to be a primary player in crunch time, run perimeter ISO sets and the lack of control Coach Brown has on the Black Mamba that seems unlikely.

Can Kobe learn the ultimate lesson?

Kobe needs to put his ego aside and take a page out of Paul Pierce’s book in Boston. The Truth welcomed KG and Ray Allen in the summer of 2007 not only with open arms but with a larger share of the team’s possessions. Pierce’s usage rate dropped dramatically that season but his true shooting percentage increased as the big three led the Celts to their first title in 22 years. The same could easily be done in Los Angeles, but not if Kobe Bryant has anything to do about it.

Full Court Analytics

NBA Story Lines Down The Stretch

Story lines Worth Keeping an Eye On

LA’s Playoff Push

Paul Pierce Finding the Fountain of Youth

Nobody Beats the Wiz

Is Dirk Done?

Can Bogut Give the Dubs Anything?

Wait… So Are the Kings Moving?

Will Granger's Return Make the Pacers a Threat to Beat the Heat?

Can the Raps make the Playoffs after starting 4-19?

Mid-Season Awards & Juicy Predictions

Mid-Season Awards and Predictions

MVP

LeBron James

Coach of the Year

Mark Jackson

Most Improved Player

Brook Lopez

Some other obvious awards:

Rookie of the Year – Damian Lillard

6th Man of the Year – Jamal Crawford

Who Wins the Chip?

Surprise Team That Makes Deep Playoff Run

Surprise Team That Loses In the First Round

Second Half Playoff Push Surprise

Biggest Disappointing Team for the Second Half

Biggest Disappointing Player in Second Half

Surprise Player in Second Half

NBA Deadline Deals Spectacular

RaGone For The Season

The Pau Pickle

Pau Gasol Trades That Should’ve Happened Yesterday, But Need to Happen Tomorrow.

Now to Pau Gasol.

First, who should be interested?

The All Thanksgiving Duo

Two Players To Be Thankful For on This Thanksgiving Day

Paul Pierce

The Celtics of course stayed course which is typically riskier.

Zach Randolph

Putting the Crazy LA LA in Los Angeles

What’s been happening in LA? A Crazy Call You Have to Read to Believe

Micro blunder

Macro blunder

Enter D’Antoni

You know who will? That other LA team. That’s right Johnny, let’s go Clippers!

Why the Clippers are legitimate contenders

Clipper fans need not get too excited though, sorry Clipper Darryl

What can that package net? How about Danny Granger

Early Tells, Early Predictions

Early Tells, Early Predictions

Cleveland, Get Excited

Cleveland, your savior was always with you and it’s not who you may think

Lakers will make a desperation trade at the deadline

Brooklyn will miss the playoffs and their minds

Carmelo Anthony finishes second in MVP voting

Houston: We Have A Stud - Analyzing the Harden to Rockets Trade

James Harden is Better Than You Think

Howard deal in a semi large nut shell

Right I know....Howard is great. So What?

The returns of the trades

Sounds like a clear rip-off for Houston then, right?

Another factor, the 2-guard slot is perhaps just as scarce as the center slot in the league

Three factors are crucial in a franchise player.

Did Houston make a good trade here? Aw hell yeah!

Final prediction: James Harden is that good, he's only 23 and in his first year he will lead the Rockets to the playoffs.

You Just Got Forked - Basketball Purgatory

Basketball Purgatory: The NBA’s Version of No Man’s Land

The New York Yankees

Strategic Hopefuls

Up and Comers

An Injury Away

NBA Purgatory

What went wrong?

Golden State Warriors – Were they ever right?

Washington Wizards – Arenas wasn't the problem

Mavs, Raptors, Nets - I get it.

Bucks – I don’t get it

Can the Lakers Win It All? Just Ask Kobe

Should the Lakers be Considered Favorites to win the Title?

6^th Man of the Year – Jamal Crawford