Fusion Investing and Analysis

Hunter Hall discusses Biota

Dean Morel — Sun, 05 Jul 2009 14:51:53 +0000

Portfolio Manager Steven Glass discusses Hunter Hall’s investment in Biota and the implication of swine flu. A few key points from the video: Releanza is one of two antivirals to treat HINI (swine flu) If HINI mixes with seasonal flu which has resistance to Tamiflu then there is only one antiviral left, Biota’s Relenza. LANI is main drug in pipeline. Finished PIII is Japan [results out soon]. One puff. [HRV is the other main drug in Biota's pipeline.] Should have $85M cash as of June 30. [Biota had $55.4 cash at December] Expect return of cash via ...

Long Term Dow Chart

Dean Morel — Sun, 05 Jul 2009 13:29:49 +0000

Cognitive dissonance is the uncomfortable feeling caused by holding two contradictory ideas simultaneously. I have read many market pundits claim the market is going to go sideways for several years. If they looked at a long term chart of the Dow they'd have a nasty case of cognitive dissonance running down their leg. The one thing the market never does is go sideways for a number of years. The market may be at the same point in several or many years, but if it is, it will have travelled a bumpy roller-coaster ride to get there.

Weekly Words of Wisdom

Dean Morel — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 04:50:29 +0000

Strategies to lock in ANZ profits form the share purchase plan. Including selling calls, buying puts and CFDs. Plus the dangers of a cash rich company.

Never Say Never

Dean Morel — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 22:33:20 +0000

Today I give thanks to my dad. When several people told me what I wanted to do was impossible and I was too late, it was my dad's voice reverberating in my mind which drowned out their negativity. My dad wise saying, "there is no such thing as can't" , was my life jacket in the sea of negativity which four authorative people cast me adrift in.

Fusion Fund Takes up Full ANZ SPP Allocation

Dean Morel — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 05:52:02 +0000

The Fusion Fund has applied for a full $15k allocation to the ANZ share purchase plan. I will write more about this later, but if anyone still wants to apply you have a little under one hour to get to 380 Bourke St, Melbourne with your application and cheque. Make sure you have it in a letter with a stamp, as theat is the GPO Box location and you’ll be posting it over the counter. More later on as I relay the trials and tribuations of how I made $1875 in an ...

The Black Swan and OC Funds Manager

Dean Morel — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 11:53:37 +0000

Since the success of The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, I have wondered how many readers have actually seen a Black Swan. For those who haven't seen one, here I took this photo today as I played with my kids at Newport Lakes. I wonder if anyone had ever used a Black Swan in a turducken. As these beautiful water fowl are relatively common in my neck of the woods I have always been bemused by the title of The Black Swan. I do know the underlying story of the phrase, unfortunately stupid arrogant white guys are quite as rare as these fowl. Anyway, I thought a better title would be The Honest Banker.

Biota: Answering Discussion Board Questions

Dean Morel — Sun, 28 Jun 2009 23:24:57 +0000

I started to write the following reply to a question on the Hot Copper disccusion board. As it became longer than I intended I decided to post it here. It seems I have not made my position clear, so perhaps a little clarification is in order. I have a sizable investment in Biota, which I bought around 40 cents when I was analysing Biota on this site. I have not sold any shares. I do not care where the share price in today, tomorrow or next week. When I see a ...

Could Crocs Inc be a Turnaround Play?

Dean Morel — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 00:00:00 +0000

Crocs is both a great story to keep an eye and a fascinating story for managers and investors to learn from.

Market Cap vs Enterprise Value vs Share Price vs Value

Dean Morel — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 13:02:18 +0000

My intelligent and gorgeous wife once told me we should sell company A, which we owned, and buy company B as they were the same price and company B was clearly worth more. My interest was peaked; however, the great opportunity was a mirage, as she was only looking at the share price and that does not tell you the price tag on a company.

Hunter Hall International Limited (HHL.AX) Analysis and Valuation

Dean Morel — Fri, 19 Jun 2009 05:09:02 +0000

Hunter Hall looks compelling with a reward/risk profile of 7:1.