Gaia Watch

CO2 hits 407 ppm !!!

2016-05-24T14:33:00.001-05:00

Atmospheric CO2 hit 407 ppm in April, 2016. The alarming thing is that this is over 4ppm higher than April, 2015.

What does this imply? -- We are already at the CO2 levels of the Pliocene, when ocean levels were 80 ft higher than today. Rising at 4ppm per year, we will see 500 ppm by 2040, and 740 ppm by 2100. The Earth has not seen CO2 levels that high since the Cretaceious, when NO POLAR ICE EXISTED !!

Global Warming has just begun. As the CO2 levels accelerate, so too will the rate of Global Warming.

We must also ask ourselves "why is this occuring"? The worlds energy infrastrucure has not changed, and the world economy has not grown enough to get a human caused doubling of added CO2 levels. CO2 had been rising at about 2ppm for the last 15 years. Something has changed to cause a rise of 4ppm.

Possible causes of the 4ppm rise --

The warming oceans are not absorbing as much CO2 as they have in the past. As the oceans warm, they lose ability to absorb CO2. Just as cold sodas hold CO2 better than warm sodas, so too, the oceans will hold less CO2 as they warm. So, maybe the increased CO2 levels is still coming from only human created CO2.
On the other hand, maybe the added CO2 is coming from Nature. We see the heat islands over Siberia. Maybe melting permafrost is now adding CO2 in significant quantities. If so, we can only expect that to increase even more as the Earth warms. We could soon be seeing 5ppm, 7ppm, and 10ppm rises in atmospheric CO2 annually, if this is the case.

Personally, I feel that the second hypothesis is more likely the correct one. If so, it is bad news. It means that Nature has taken over the controls of GW. Mankind may no longer have the ability to stop it, or even slow it down, by merely switching to non-fossil fuel energy.

Climate change is turning rivers of Mekong Delta salty

2011-08-22T21:30:00.002-05:00

Climate change is turning rivers of Mekong Delta salty, spelling disaster for millions of poor farmers. See full Guardian article

The Mekong delta is one of the major crop growing areas of the world. Losing this growing area will put greater strain on the world's food system. Since the rising seas is not a local problem, it is not surprising that the Nile delta is experiencing a similar problem. See full article on "Nile River Delta Falls Prey to Climate Change"

A post from Columbia University (see full post) tells how the Mississippi River delta is eroding away primarily from river management practices of the Army Corps of Engineers. With New Orleans already below sea level, how will Louisiana cope if the oceans rise even a little? With some forecasts for the oceans to rise three to six feet by 2100, how will that be managed? Will New Orleans have to be abandoned? What will we do for the people displaced? What will happen to all the food production of the Mississippi delta? Can we adapt to growing other foodstuffs?

Of course, these questions will need to be addressed for every river that flows into the sea.

Arctic Melting Close to Setting New Record

2011-08-14T22:21:00.001-05:00

The Arctic is getting close to setting a new record for minimum summer ice.

The current northern hemisphere sea ice area is at 3.344 million sq. kilometers. This is 1.994 million square kilometers less than than average area for August 13th from 1979 to 2008. An area equivalent to Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, California, and Nevada is not covered with ice as it normally would be.

This is just a continuation of the trend towards less and less summer ice. Combined with the record minimum winter ice set last winter, the direction is unmistakable. The Arctic IS losing ice. The ice that is there is much thinner than it used to be making it that much easier for ice to melt each succeeding year.

Now changing weather conditions, changing currents, and changing winds will ensure that some minor recoveries in ice area may occur. The years after the record summer ice minimum of 2007 seemed to show some minor recovery since they did not exceed that record. However, for each year since 2007 the record minimum was less than the 1979-2008 norm by more than 2 std. deviations. That means that the old Arctic ice pattern is permanently changed.

The Arctic ice minimum for 2011 will happen in another four to five weeks. Looking at the graphs and the Arctic conditions now, The above picture is from Cryosphere Today. Notice the large areas that are blue or green. These are areas that that have much less than 100% ice coverage. In effect, they are like a huge ice slushy. The blue area could also melt before the minimum is set. As you can see, that is a large area. Gong by this, a record low of 2.0 to 2.5 million sq. kilometers could be set.

Environment: Germany - Nuclear Free by 2022

2011-06-03T15:55:00.000-05:00

Angela Merkel, Chancellor of Germany, declared this week Germany's commitment to be nuclear free by 2022. All seventeen of the country's nuclear power plants are to be shut down by then. The effort to remediate the radiation and return the nuclear sites to safe and normal use will take over 100 years.

Germany was recently planning on expanding its usage of nuclear power. The Fukushima disaster altered those plans. The power production of the seventeen plants will be replaced by new solar and wind energy power plants. Neighboring Denmark has had recent success employing wind energy.

Germany is already a world leader in solar energy technology. This decision will strengthen the position of their companies in the growing world market of renewable energy. As nation's around the world begin to understand fully the benefits of renewable energy Germany will be the leading country to benefit from that market growth.

Meanwhile, the United States is in total denial about the need for renewable energy production. The only response from our government to non-fossil fuel energy production is to expand nuclear energy. When you take in the 100 years required to decommission and renature a nuclear site and the cost of handling and storing spent nuclear rods, the real cost of nuclear energy us much higher than all other forms. That high cost is there even if potential disasters do not happen.

Since a recent poll showed that the majority of the members of Congress do not accept global warming, it is very doubtful that any efforts to help our renewable energy industry to compete will be enacted. It used to be a major function of our government to help new industries to get started. That does not seem to be the case for renewable energy.

The global warming denial machine funded by the oil interests and others is making sure nothing will happen. The lies spewing from that machine is sowing confusion and distrust in the public and the politicians. Oddly, the public inaction by the government is contrary to the plans by the military and the oil industry to deal with increased oil exploration in the Arctic. British Petroleum, BP, who gave us the Gulf oil spill disaster has contracted with Russia to explore for offshore oil in the Arctic Ocean. This could not have been done when the Arctic was ice covered year round.

While the US is shackled in indecision, other countries are making progress. A market that could be ours for the taking will be dominated by other countries. They will have the good manufacturing jobs, and we will be left flipping hamburgers.

It is a pity.

Arctic: Arctic Melt Progresses

2011-06-03T15:48:00.001-05:00

The Arctic ice cap continues to melt following the same pattern seen since 2007. The Arctic is about one million square kilometers under the average ice cover. An area the size of Texas and New Mexico combined is open water now, that used to be covered in ice. This area added open water area is absorbing solar radiation and further warming the Arctic. This solar heating feedback has been in place since 2007.

Earlier this spring, much of the ice cover was at less than 100% coverage, indicating thin and easily melted ice. This created the expectation that a new record low in summer ice area would be set this coming September. The current conditions point towards coming close, and maybe just passing the record low of 2007.

As interesting as it is to watch for records to be broken, it is more important to be aware of the recurring pattern we have seen each year since 2007. Each summer since then, the Kara, Leptev, East Siberian, Chuchki, and Beaufort seas have become virtually ice free. Not long ago, these seas were mostly ice bound year round. These shallow seas are now absorbing solar energy each summer that they did not before. This feedback loop is expected to continue, and in time, to lead to the complete melting of the Arctic in the summer.

Notice the areas colored red, yellow, orange, and green. Those are areas where the ice is covering the water at less than 100%. Sea Ice Extent data includes those areas as within the extent area, giving a false impression of the amount of ice. Because these areas of less than 100% ice coverage are within the Arctic Basin, I expect some significant melting to occur this year or next. At the end of each of the recent summers, the Arctic Basin melted back from its area of 4 msk to about 2.5 msk, with the rest of the Arctic Ocean being mostly ice free, giving a total ice area of 3.0 msk. The Arctic Basin is the next area to begin showing year to year increased open ocean when the annual summer ice minimum is reached.

The climatologists differ on their projections of when the summer ice minimum will be zero. Some say 2020. Some say 2030. Some say 2040. A few years ago, many said 2100, but almost none say that now. From a climate change point of view, Whether it happens in 2020, 2030, or 2040, matters little. The main thing is that continued global warming is projected, and no process is known that may reverse the trend. The past increase in atmospheric CO2 to today's level of 393 ppm is seen as the only explanation for the recent warming.

Projected levels of CO2 to 415 ppm by 2020, 445 by 2030, and 475 by 2040, points to not only continued global warming, but to an increased rate of warming. CO2 is expected to rise at 3 ppm per year at least if nothing is done.

How warm will it get before it stabilizes? That is the big question. If it stabilizes at the type of climate that existed the last time the Earth had 400 ppm in its atmosphere, then that would be the climate of the Pliocene. The Pliocene was 3.5 mya. The climate was much warmer. There was no ice on Greenland. Antarctica had less ice. The oceans were 30 meters (90 ft) deeper.

It could stabilize at a level not as warm as the Pliocene with more ice being retained. However, CO2 levels will soon be going far above the levels seen in the Pliocene.

What do you think are the possible and likely results?

More Coal -- Is That Good News?

2011-05-24T23:09:00.000-05:00

" African Energy Resources recently confirmed a major thermal coal discovery in land-locked Botswana. Some 2.7 billion tonnes of the stuff if you don’t mind." Confirmation that it was big – and capable of growing bigger still. But with the Indians stomping around Africa looking for new long-term coal supplies, it’s a fair bet that interest in AFR is not over yet.

The Indians themselves reckon that apart from its indigenous coal supplies, it will need 150-200 million tonnes of additional imports by 2025 to meet the electrification demands of the population."

India getting long term contracts for coal imports to power their economic growth is not good news for the prospects of the world's nations to control the growth of atmospheric CO2. The desire of India to produce electricity is very understandable. Electricity is the basis for industry, and is fundamental to living the modern middle class life. One billion people in India want to have that modern life. The government of India and its energy companies must ensure that happens.

However, the long term impact on the planet and on India will be very dire.

Atmospheric CO2 is at 393 ppm and growing at 2.5 ppm per year. The level during the Pliocene matched our current levels. The oceans were 90 feet deeper than today. That means that even if we stabilized CO2 levels at the current level, that Greenland and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet would eventually melt raising the oceans about 90 feet.

That will be catastrophic. No Bangladesh. The cities of Mumbai, Surat, Karachi, Hyderabad, Goa, Chennai, Calcutta, Bangkok, Saigon, Shangai, Seoul, Tokyo, Washington D.C., and many other coastal cities will be underwater. River delta regions around the globe will be flooded along with the immense food production currently produced.

Now this may seem unthinkable. But it is important to understand how CO2 works in the atmosphere. CO2 helps trap solar energy by reducing the amount of heat that can be radiated back into space. This impact can presently be measured. On a clear night, the air stays slightly warmer than it used to, since less heat can be radiated out into space.

Now the retention of this heat energy is cumulative. Each year more heat is retained, raising the heat energy stored in the oceans and atmosphere. Each year, the Earth gets a little bit warmer. Just as the growth of a child is not noticeable day-to-day, the effect of the additional heat is not noticeable year-to-year. And just as a child grows to become an adult, the constant currently high level of CO2 will bring on a Pliocene like climate.

During the Pliocene, there was no ice in the Arctic, and there were tropical plants in Canada.

Hearing that India is contracting with African countries to guarantee its future supply of coal is not good news. How can the global community make any progress on eliminating fossil fuel use if commitments like these are being made?

No one intends on making this happen. But, by not looking at the evidence and learning to understand the long term effects of climate change, we are committing our planet to a very different future than we have known. Each year that goes by without a global commitment to that change, will make our future efforts that much more difficult.

Arctic Oil Exploitation - A Growing Danger

2011-05-17T14:59:00.001-05:00

"The accidental release of crude oil into the ocean environment is of increasing concern because of the damage to marine and coastal wildlife as well as its adverse impact on humans that depend on the sea. The BP spill in the Gulf of Mexico has made it obvious that, as the demand for oil expands and drilling takes place in technically challenging locations, the likelihood of accidents will increase. The Arctic is a particular concern because, unlike spills in the warm waters of the Gulf, natural dissipation and dispersion of the oil is slowed by the cold temperatures. Moreover, human efforts at remediation are severely hampered by the extreme weather, by ice cover and by winter darkness. The National Energy Board and the CBC state that Canada is not set to start offshore drilling for arctic oil until 2014. However in August 2010 an exploration licence was granted to Chevron."

Oil exploration in the Arctic is going to explode in the next few years as it becomes warmer. The BP tragedy in the Gulf would be much worse if it happened in the Arctic. Some of the greatest fisheries in the world are located their. They may be destroyed when an oil drilling accident occurs.

Granted that in the short term we have little choice but to use oil and gas to enable our transportation and heating our homes. However, that does not mean that we have to commit ourselves to that technology forever. Mankind must start weaning itself from oil and gas. The process may take a long time. As the ancient Chinese proverb says, "a thousand mile journey begins with the first step." We have not made that first step.

Sure, some windfarms have been built, and some solar energy plants are running. But, there has been no commitment to the replacement and dismantling of all the existing coal, oil, and gas electric power stations in the world. This is what needs to be done, or something close to it.

Nuclear power is NOT the solution. The Fukushima disaster should show that. The bigger problem with nuclear power is there is no solution for the long term handling and storage of the spent nuclear rods. A meltdown can poison groundwater for generations. Nearby farmland can be made useless. Nearby communities can be destroyed. Nuclear power is not an alternative.

Solar, wind, and geothermal are all proven technologies. They would get even better if governments around the world committed themselves to non-fossil fuel electricity production. Wave and tidal energy is also a possibility. All these energies are there for the taking. They are clean, so they can be put near population centers with no fear of health issues.

Destroying the last unspoiled wldernesses on Earth that feed us is not the answer.

Making Global Warming Simple

2011-05-15T16:05:00.000-05:00

This year the CO2 in the atmosphere reached the level of 392 ppm. The level of CO2 for the past 800,000 years was at its highest about 280 ppm, which is where it was before the industrial revolution began around 1800. By 1950, the CO2 level was at 315 ppm and rising at about .5 ppm per year. Now it is rising at about 2.5 ppm per year. So the rate of increase has itself increased. Unabated, we will be at 415 ppm by 2020, and about 470 ppm by 2050.

OK, well and good, but what does that really mean? We have to look at truly ancient climates to get possible answers to that question. We have to look past the relatively recent cycle of ice ages and interglacial periods of the last 800,000 years. We need to look at the ages where CO2 levels were about what they are now and where they might be if the CO2 levels are allowed to rise unabated.

If we go back about 3.5 million years we get to the climate age called the Pliocene. The Pliocene lasted from approximately 5.5 million years ago (mya) to about 2.5 mya. Over this time, the continental drift caused the Mediterranean Sea to be formed and the Isthmus of Panama to rise and connect North and South America.

The seas were warmer and the climate was +2.5C (+4.5F) warmer than today. There was no Greenland Ice Cap, and no Arctic Ice at all. The oceans were 25m (80ft) deeper than they are today. The CO2 levels were about 390 ppm.

Since we are already at the Pliocene carbon dioxide levels, the question really is "what is going to prevent the duplication of the Pliocene climate from being recreated?". A second question is "how long will it take for a Pliocene like climate to establish itself?"

Let's look at the first question. At this time, no process has been identified that will likely prevent the establishment of a Pliocene like climate. The identified feedbacks mostly amplify and accelerate current warming trends. Those feedbacks include 1) loss of Arctic albedo (ice reflectivity), 2) melting permafrost adding carbon dioxide and methane to the atmosphere, and 3) release of methane from shallow undersea formations called clathrates. Of course, mankind is still accelerating its burning of fossil fuels worldwide.

The climatologists differ significantly on their estimations of how long for warming to take effect. The disturbing feature of their estimations is that for the past ten years their estimations have gotten progressively worse. Each time they update their estimates, they are more dire. The ocean levels rise higher and faster. A recent update in Ice News, said that oceans may rise up to 5 ft by 2100.

Can that be right? 5 ft? That would flood much of the food producing areas of the world located in river deltas. The Nile delta, Mississippi delta, Ganges delta (Bangladesh), Mekong Delta, Danube delta, and so many more would be mostly underwater if that happened.

For that to happen the Greenland Ice cap would have to start melting at a very fast rate. To rise 60 inches by 2100 it would have to rise at over 1/2 an inch per year, or about 150mm per year. We have been rising at about the rate of 2.5 mm per year in recent years. The climatologists are expecting Greenland to start melting at a significant rate in the next decade or two. The oceans may only rise 6-12 inches by 2050. What can cause Greenland to start melting real fast?

To answer that we have to look at the position of Greenland. The Arctic Ocean is to the north. Much of its weather comes from the north and northwest which have been perpetually ice covered for hundreds of thousands of years. Soon, though, the Arctic Ocean will be ice free during the summers, and will be absorbing sunlight and getting warmer. As that happens, then Greenland will be surrounded by open ocean at above freezing temperatures. No matter what direction the weather comes from it will bring above freezing warm air to Greenland for a season each year.

With each passing year, the Arctic Ocean gets warmer from absorbing sunlight. And each passing year, the melt season for Greenland gets longer and warmer. Greenland melting will go into overdrive. It will go into hyper-melt mode. When that happens, then we will likely start seeing the seas rise at 100 mm to 200 mm per year.

Is this for absolute certain to happen? Unfortunately, our knowledge is still developing, and we don't know everything. As of now, no one can point to any natural process that can stop this. Even if mankind stopped dumping CO2 into the atmosphere, these events are likely to happen. Maybe if mankind decided to remove CO2 from the atmosphere to lower levels to 350 ppm or lower, that might work.

The second question was "how fast". Even if oceans rise only 4 ft, or 3 ft, or 2 ft, does not mean that the processes won't continue and give us the same result. For some reason, the year 2100 has been used as projecting the results of global warming trends. However, the global warming will not stop at 2100. In fact, the accelerated pace of ocean level rising that is expected to occur from 2050 to 2100 will still go on and accelerate even further.

Remember the Pliocene oceans were 80 ft deeper. Greenland was free of ice, and the Antarctic had much less. The estimation for how long it will take the whole of the Greenland ice cap to melt (assuming mankind does nothing to reduce CO2 to 350 ppm or less) varies for 2,000 years to 300 years. The estimated 5 ft of increased ocean rise will mostly come from Greenland. That will represent about 20%-25% of Greenland's mass. At that rate, then Greenland's ice would be gone around 2400.

Antarctica will have started melting, so a rise of 30 ft to 40 ft by 2400 seems reasonable, maybe more. How long to reach an increased depth of 80 ft? That is difficult to answer because the climate dynamics that will be created in just the next hundred years may be very different. Ocean currents may change. Ocean temperatures will definitely change. Ocean chemistry will change. All these can effect the carbon cycle and the water cycle, and thus effect climate. Hopefully, processes will be altered or uncovered that will slow down, halt, or reverse the warming climate trend caused by higher CO2 levels.

Global Warming is undoubtedly the greatest challenge that mankind can face. People have difficulty planning ahead even a few years. A decade is beyond most people's ability. To cope with Global Warming people have to deal with decades and centuries. People live in cities mostly, and are cut off from the natural world around them. Even when it is nearby, they tend not to notice. Lake Michigan was once a very cold lake to swim in, even in August. Now it is wonderfully comfortable by July. It has increased in temperature 12F since the 1960's. The changes are around us. The changes will be more significant in the future and probably much less welcome.

Starting Gaia Watch Blog...

2011-05-05T14:01:00.001-05:00

Hello World

I am starting a new blog where I will report and discuss observations, developments, and new understandings of what is happening to our planet Earth. My interest in the world started, like everyone, at my birth. As a child, I had great curiosity and interest in everything. Being raised in a conservative Catholic school, I learned that the Earth was created around 4,000 BC, on a Tuesday. I recal being told it happened at 2 PM, although I never understood how that could be calculated from the bible.

Fortunately, I lived in Chicago, and the Field Museum of Natural History was there. In those days, it and all the main museums in Chicago were free. In the summer, I woud get some loose change, take the bus, and spend the afternoon just walking its halls. The Field Museum had the greatest collection of stuffed animals. It seemed all the animals of the world were there, organized in great halls. A hall for cats. A hall for birds. A hall for reptiles, and one for insects, etc. Several halls were dedicated to mankind, organized by location and culture.

Gorgosaurus standing triumphantly
over the slain carcass of a Lambeosaurus
sometime in the Late Cretaceous

I saw the vastness of life, and the diversity of man. I marveled at how people could live in so many different ways. Being an irish boy living in an immigrant Polish neighborhood, I was already aware that people could be very different. My first first freinds were Polish boys, whose parents spoke only polish. So the ways of South Sea Islanders, or of American Indians, or exotic Tibet, were merely extensions of what I already knew.

Several of the halls was dedicated to prehistoric life. As a young boy, the most captivating was the dinosaurs. In the main hall, a skeleton of a Gorgosaurus was displayed in a carnivore’s victory pose over its, supposedly, recently vanquished prey – a Lambeosaurus. I wondered how these creatures lived, and why. I read books by Edwin H. Colbert, who was the existing expert on dinosaurs. His “Dinosaur Book”, was my favorite. However, even at a young age, I was a skeptic by nature. When Colbert claimed that the Dinosaurs were cold blooded, I did not accept that. In fact, I did not accept them as Reptiles. I felt that they were whole other classification — not mammal, not bird, and not reptile. To me, they were Dinosaurs, unique and amazing.

Close by the hall of the dinosaurs, was a hall about geology. It was my least favorite hall. Rocks, being inert, hold very little interest to a child. There was one exhibit in that hall that caught my eye. It showed a 1/4″ rod, coiled round and round, and had the various ages of the earth and what was happening on ther earth at those times. It showed the cambrian, and the age of fishes, the Ordovician, the Silurian, the Devonian, Permian, Triassic, and all the ages. This coil went round and round many times, a dozen or more at least. At the very end of it, about an eighth of an inch finally came the age of man. A fine tiny sliver was the historic era going back to the ancient Egyptians.

I began to see, at that young age, how tiny and insignificant all mankind was. If mankind ceased to exist, our bodily remains would be so few as to hardly leave a trace after a few million years. As opposed to the remains of sea creatures that built Florida, and laid down the huge beds of limestone that we quarry, our existence is as nothing. Yet, being in Chicago, I saw some of the greatest buildings ever built. The skyscraper started in Chicago, and modern architecure was defined and refined there. Still, these creations would eventually turn to dust, given the enormity of Time.

In time, I grew up, and left behind such childish musings. I got a degree, and then a Masters Degree in Business from Northwestern University Kellogg School. I made a living consulting and helping companies operate better and make more money. Outside of the occassional visit to a museum, thoughts of life and the planet did not occur to me much.

I had a daughter. I took her to the Field Museum, wanting to introduce her to the place that was my mind’s incubator. But, it had changed. It charged money now, and the fee was not cheap. More importantly, though, it had changed on the inside. The great halls of stuffed animals were destroyed, and the information gone. I took my daughter into a recently “renovated” bird diorama that you walked through. I guess it was done to give a viewer a “feel” for the birds environment. I guess they think we don’t have imaginations. What is worse, though, is that the stuffed animals cannot be put out in the open like that. So, all the really good ones, the rare ones, were no longer displayed. The absolute worst, though, was the destruction of information.

In the diorama, a red-winged blackbird was displayed. Pretty. But, no information, other than its common name was given. No latin name. No map showing habitat range. No display of young or female birds, whiich I knew looked different. No display of diet, or beavior, anything else. If that is all I needed, I could show my daughter red-winged blackbirds on the side of the highway. It was horrible. To me, it was as if barbarians had invaded the temple to knowledge, and destroyed it. Marauding Vikings with war hammers and axes could not have done a more devastating act of vandalism.

It was obvious that the hordes of religious fanatics, screaming creationism had descended. The dioramas of Neanderthal man were removed. In the main lobby, a glass case once stood, showing the erect skeletons of the five main apes – Gibbon, Chimpanzee, Orangutan, Gorilla, and Homo Sapiens. As a child, I saw how closely we were related to the other apes. Just take a gorilla’s body, and change the dimensions of it bones, and you would get the Chimpanzee, or the Gibbon, or a Man. The same could be done with all of them. That was an important lesson I wanted to teach my daughter. But, it was removed. When I complained about it, and wondering if it was destroyed. I was shown that it still existed, but hidden away where it could not be seen. This, for a display that was once considered so important that it was displayed in the main hall. I guess science had lost its appeal at the Field Museum. All the displays have been ravaged now, and depleted of information. Whatever is shown now is devoid of context, and without context, facts are meaningless. Fortunately, the American Museum of Natural History is still world class.

But I digress. In 2001, my interest in the planet Earth was awakened by a magazine article. I forget where I read it, but it said that naval observations had shown that the average Arctic summer ice thickness had gone from 17 ft thick in 1980 to 9 feet thick by 1998. I was shocked. A simple computation told me that the Arctic will have a summer ice thickness of zero by 2017. What surprised me at the tiime was that climatologists and their models were predicting 2100 as the time for a summer ice free Arctic. I could not square the naval ice thickness data with the climatologist’s predictions.

It was my effort to understand the naval data and the climatologists that got me thinking again about this Earth, and what is happening to it. The Arctic has rekindled my interest, but many other things are happening that need to be understood. Much of what is reported is often without context, or even wrong. The scientists are not always the best at making things understandable. In fact, their wording is often ambiguous. For instance, an article might read “The Arctic has seen its lowest ice extent since 1979″. To the normal reader, that would mean — The Arctichas seen its lowest extent since 1979 WHEN IT WAS LAST AT THIS LEVEL. When, what the scientist really means is — WHEN RECORDS STARTED BEING KEPT. So, no implication of prior extent being that low – EVER. I will do my best to explain things I come across in clear unambiguous terms. Science is not that difficult, when things are presented clearly.

And so, now, I start my blog. If you like it and find it occassionally interesting, please leave your comments, I want to hear them. I will respond as best I can.

Arctic Losing Winter Sea Ice...New and Alarming Trend..

2011-02-25T16:17:00.002-06:00

Recent View of Arctic

Cryosphere Today website
The Cryosphere Today website is very interesting, I recommend it. The above image was taken from it. What it shows is actually quite disturbing.

Every winter the Arctic sea ice extends and freezes its normal maximum area of about 14 million square kilometers (msk). That is normal for now. If you go back to 1980, the Arctic normally reached a maximum ice are over 16msk. In any case, the area that was frozen over would be completely covered with ice.

The completeness of the ice coverage can be seen by the color given to the ice by the Cryosphere Today website.

Arctic View winter before the great melt
Compare the two images from February 24th 2007 and 2011. See the difference? The 2007 image is a solid purple. That means that the Ocean is completely covered with ice -- 100%. That is good. That is to be expected. After all, in 1980, the average ice thickness was 17 ft, and was primarily multi-year ice.

The 2011 image is NOT solid purple. The Arctic is NOT completely covered in ice. The ice concentration is less than 100%. The colors indicate that the concentration is 95%, 90%, and as low as 80%. Water is actually exposed to the air in those places. If you were to be walking there, you could drown.

This is extraordinary. Remember the image for 2007 shows the condition of the Arctic in the year when a summer ice minimum of 3msk was reached. That was a serious meltback that blew away previous records by one million sq. kilometers! When that happened, climatologists rushed to their models to update them. None of the climate models predicted that huge meltback.

But, even that year showed 100% ice coverage the preceeding winter. This winter is different. What does it portend?

First, I think the there should be a huge meltback this summer, easily beating the 2007 record. I would not be surprised to see a summer ice minimum of 2msk.

Secondly, I see a trend towards less and less winter ice. The loss of sea ice area until now has shown a decrease in area at the margins. Now it is losing ice throughout, and it is doing it in WINTER! If the cold Arctic air cannot freeze the ocean in the winter, then that means that Arctic Ocean is becoming to warm to freeze.

Note Hudson Bay. It did not freeze over until January, two months late. But, it did freeze over. Note that its color is a solid purple, so it ishows 100% sea ice concentration. It may be thin ice, but it covers completely. The Arctic is not doing that.

Now another thing that may be happening is wave action. The Arctic is an ocean which means waves. If the ice is not thick enough, then wave action will break it up. So we might be seeing the development of ice and water mixture, a sort of ocean slushy. This may be just as bad as having the ice melted, from an albedo effect. If you notice, broken up ice floating in water, becomes clear and takes on the color of the water. So, ice reflectivity is lost. Sunlight, when it comes in the spring, will start being absorbed before the ice gets fully melted.

As there is less summer ice, more solar energy is absorbed, warming the ocean that much faster.

Now as the ocean warms, then the winter ice concentration should be expected to decline. Now it is at 95% over much of the area. In future years, may it go down to 90%, 80%, and even lower. If this trend continues long enough, shouldn't we expect to see an ice free Arctic in the winter? It might take several hundred years to reach that condition, but unless something happens to reverse the underlying conditions causing the trend, then how can it be avoided?

Impact on Greenland
The importance of Arctic ice loss is on loss of albedo and the warming of the Arctic Ocean. The reason why that is important is that is where the climate of Greenland is determined. When ice is year around to the north of Greenland, then all the weather coming to Greenland is freezing during the entire year. The ice cap is safe.

However, when the Arctic ocean is open water, it is above freezing. Thus, all weather systems going over it to Greenland become above freezing. Greenland melts. The less ice, and the warmer the ocean, the warmer the air, and the faster Greenland melts.

The climatologists foresaw an ice free summer Arctic happening soon. Maybe as soon as 2020. However, none foresee an ice free WINTER Arctic!. This could mean that Greenland's melt season would be year around. Not just for a few months in the summer.

If that happens -- HYPER MELT time. Now we could be talking about accelerating the melting of Greenlands ice cap by orders of magnitude. To me, an increase of melting by 100 times more the current melt rate would not be surprising.

This may seem extreme, but it is just a matter of deduction. Think about it.

Record Melting of Arctic Ice coming in 2011 !!!

2011-02-21T00:30:00.002-06:00

I am forecasting a record meltback of Arctic Ocean ice area for the summer of 2011. In 2007, a record low of Arctic Ice area was recorded - approximately 3 million sq. km. Before that, a "normal" year would see an minimal ice area of about 5 mil. sq. km. This year, I am forecasting a new record low of near 2 mil. sq. km. will be set.

The Significance?

This is significant since ice has a high albedo factor. That is, it reflects most of the suns light and heat back into space. As more and more of the Arctic ocean is ice free, more and more of the sun's heat is absorbed. Thus, the ocean's temperature increases, and less ice is formed in following years. This feedback process has been well underway for the last few decades.

When the Arctic ocean north of Greenland becomes ice free each summer, then the air masses bringing weather to Greenland will be above freezing. In the past, the ocean north of Greenland was ice covered year around. When their is north of Greenland, then the melting of the Greenland Ice Cap will begin in earnest. I believe it will enter what I call "hyper-melt" mode. With the warmer air coming to Greenland for longer summer periods. Then Greenland's ice will melt in earnest. I would not be surprised to see an increase of melting by an order of magnitude.

Satellite view of Arctic 05/012000
Note the color is dark purple indicating the ice covers the water 100%

How Do I know? I regularly go to the Cryosphere Today site maintained by the University of Illinois. This site has satellite images of the Arctic showing the ice coverage. The images of the ice are color coded showing the density of the coverage. Dark purple for complete coverage through light blue for almost no coverage, and black for less than 15% ice. If you look at all previous years for May 1, you will see dark purple over all the Arctic.

Well, for 5/01/2011, you not see dark purple everywhere. You will a lot of light purple, red, yellow, and green. That means that the Arctic ice is not completely covering the ocean. It means that the cold Arctic air is not cold enough to overcome the heat of the Arctic ocean and freeze it over. Therefore, this ice will melt very fast this summer.

Satellite view of the Arctic from Cryosphere Today site.
Note the multi-colored Arctic showing that the ice is not 100% covering the water.
This is new.

These colors you see is a new development. Normally you only see colors other than purple at the edges of the ice. The ice would be solid, except at the margins, where the melting would occur. But now we see large areas of varying ice concentrations. This can only mean that the ice has become too thin to remain structurally sound. That is, the waves of the ocean are breaking it up. It will melt much quicker and more easily.

If you look at the ice area for May 1, 2007, you will see that the ice completely covered the ocean. The Arctic set a record low summer ice minimum. Since 2011 is starting with thinner and less ice coverage than in 2007 the record sea ice minimum should be easily broken this year.

I suspect that we are seeing a new pattern of ice melt. If this pattern repeats itself next year, then it is likely that it is a permanent change. Permanent, that is, until there is no ice in the Arctic.