Gamblers Anonymous

Marc Davis vs. Celtics

2012-05-01T11:47:00.000-04:00

I have always said that refs have hated Celtics, especially Paul Pierce who gets beat up on every drive without a whistle. Anyone not from Boston has always dismissed it as usual homer talk. While I might be too easily convinced of this by the ref loving announcer Tommy Heinsohn, there seems to be no question that Marc Davis does not like the Celtics. Above is a game against Atlanta at the end of the regular season that went to overtime that was reffed by Marc Davis. Celtics were able to hold on and get the win with no help from the officials. This does not give an excuse to Rondo though, for the dumb move of bumping into a official and putting his team in a very bad spot. The only thing that could possibly of been dumber then Rondo's bump would of been punching a fire extinguisher..

Celtics are now down 1 in Atlanta tonight without Rondo or Allen. The one good side for the Celtics is now Avery Bradley can harass Teague instead of getting abused by the much bigger Joe Johnson and McGrady. This game is huge. Teams in the NBA that have started a series 2-0 own a .942 winning percentage (226-14).

Flop of The Year

2012-04-29T00:21:00.000-04:00

I am happy Van Gundy was announcing when this happened. Something has to be done about flopping.

2012 NBA First Round Playoff Predictions

2012-04-28T13:05:00.000-04:00

I am not going to go too in depth with these predictions, but here they are.

EAST
1) Chicago vs. 8) Philadelphia
Chicago in 6. Philadelphia has looked horrible lately but I think they can take 2 games in the series. Could easily be Chicago in 5.

4) Boston vs. 5) Atlanta (ATL has home court)
Boston in 6. Great news that Horford is out for the series and Pachulia out for a couple of games. Atlanta is a team that does not bang down low and is a jump shooting team. I don't think they can beat Boston at their own game. Josh Smith also has not shown up vs. Boston most of his career. Could also easily be 5, Atlanta is not really a threat.

3) Indiana vs. 6) Orlando
Indiana in 4. Orlando without Howard is the worst team in the playoffs. It is too bad Indiana is on Miami's side of the bracket, cause they match up great with Chicago.

2) Miami vs. 7) New York
Miami in 5. Miami can handle New York easily. The Knicks MVP, Tyson Chandler, can only do so much. Miami is much better at every position from 1-4.

WEST
1) San Antonio vs. 8) Utah
San Antonio in 5. Utah is playing their best basketball of the season, but I just don't think they can keep up with San Antonio. Especially when Millsap is not %100.

4) Memphis vs. 5) Los Angelos Clippers
Memphis in 6. I have Memphis or San Antonio coming out the West. They are by far the most complete team in NBA right now. CP3 in playoffs is always scary though, he can almost win a series by himself. Being the only playmaker on the team is just to much to weight on one shoulders vs. a team like Memphis though.

3) Los Angelos Lakers vs. 6) Denver Nuggets
Lakers in 5. Bynum has been crazier then ever, but also playing the best basketball of his career. Looks like Kobe finally does trust him, which matters much more then if Mike Brown does or doesn't. Him and Gasol should be able to take care of Nuggets.

2) Oklahoma City vs. 7) Dallas
Oklahoma City in 7. Although Chandler leaving was huge for Dallas, they still create some of the same match up problems from last year. Oklahoma City has no one to cover Dirk and Marion has great defense for Durant. Westbrook going to be asked to do a lot this series. I think Oklahoma youth and energy will win it for them, but could easily go either way.

I have Memphis vs. Miami in the finals. If Memphis not coming out West I think it will be Spurs. Oklahoma City is too much 1-1 and long jumpers in half court sets, which there is much more of in playoffs. Most of the blame is on Scott Brooks shoulders. If not Miami in finals it should be Boston. That is not just a homer pick either. In 2nd round Chicago should beat Boston, but they do not have a shot vs. Miami in ECF while Boston actually have a good one.

Bill Simmons Draft Diary Blunders

2012-04-06T16:16:00.004-04:00

As much as Bill Simmons loves to point to his Durant over Oden pick, he has had some horrible blunders over the time. If anyone shared their thoughts about every draft I am sure you would find mistakes too, but Simmons being so sure of himself, having horrible predictions year after year, and his reasons sounding like something you would read at tmz get to me. Please ignore the random order. Here are some of his highlights.

7:37 --The Magic are on the clock with the first pick. If they're smart, they take Emeka Okafor. If they're dumb, they take Howard. It's that simple.

7:39 -- They go with Howard. Of course they do. He's the third high schooler taken overall in the past four years, as well as the first top pick with braces since Pervis Ellison. Not a good sign. "Praise the Lord!" screams Dwight Howard Sr., who didn't realize that the Lord had Okafor going first in his mock draft.

Braces are always the first thing a scout should look at when deciding who to pick.

5:31: I present two athletic perimeter guys for you, both freshmen:
• Xavier Henry (born March 1991), 2-guard: a top-3 college recruit in 2009, started on the No. 1 college team (regular season), averaged 13.4 ppg (27.5 mpg), shot 45.5 percent and 41.8 percent on 3s, didn't get a ton of touches on a veteran team, did everything he could to fit in.
• Paul George (born May 1990), small forward: not a top-100 college recruit, best player on a 15-18 team in the WAC, averaged 16.8 ppg (33.2 mpg), shot 42 percent and 35 percent on 3s, played inferior competition.
Whom did the Pacers take? Naturally, George. Did I mention that their best player (Danny Granger) is a small forward? I love the NBA.

Great research again. Pacers must really regret getting George. Henry now averages 16 minutes per a game with the Hornets. When you struggle to get playing time for the Hornets, there is a problem.

5:44: Memphis happily takes Henry at No. 12. That was like last year's Hasheem Thabeet pick, only the complete opposite.

Memphis lucked out that Pacers let Xaver Henry slip...

7:49 -- Charlotte takes Adam Morrison. Love that pick.

So did we all. So did we all.

8:00 -- Atlanta keeps its promise and drafts Shelden Williams fifth. Another solid pick, even if his nickname is "The Landlord" (sounds like a bad WWE gimmick).

The landlord nickname was definitely the thing Atlanta should of been worried about.

5:39: Our long national nightmare is over: The Hawks finally drafted a quality point guard (Acie Law IV). It's like Billy Knight just pooped in our fridge and ate a whole wheel of cheese, isn't it? Mark Jackson celebrates the occasion by making a midget joke.

Am I happy Acie Law ended that nightmare. I forget, why didn't the Hawks build around Shelden Williams and Acie Law again?

8:29 -- The Warriors take Patrick O'Bryant, a mortal lock for the Reggie Cleveland All-Stars who has the most Irish-sounding name of any black athlete since Troy O'Leary. Not a bad pick. Let's cancel the scheduled Chris Mullin intervention for tomorrow.

After being trip to D league O'Bryant now plays pro in Puerto Rico. Solid 9th pick.

5:59: Our last two blue-chippers get taken: Julian Wright (Hornets) and Al Thornton (Clippers). Love both of those picks -- not just the players, but the fits with the teams.

Where do they both play now? You guessed it, one in D league the other in Puerto Rico.

9:40 -- Just when this draft couldn't get any crazier, my beloved Celtics just bought the 21st pick from Phoenix to take Rajon Rondo, the Kentucky guard who Chad Ford touted all summer because he mistakenly thought Rondo was foreign. Unfortunately, Rondo can't shoot. This is an understatement. As Bilas says, "Teams in the SEC didn't even guard him." Put it this way: The list of NBA teams that won an NBA title with a point guard who couldn't shoot looks like this:
1. (empty)
2. (empty)
3. (empty)

What a horrible pick by Celtics.

6:16: Bledsoe's off the board. Damn. OKC just took him. Typically smart move by them. I'm starting to hate Sam Presti. Make a mistake already, Sam. If there were 30 GMs like you, I'd have nothing to write about.

6:30: Buch reports on another trade: OKC traded the rights to Bledsoe to the Clippers for a future No. 1 because of the "any time you can trade for a future No. 1 from the Clips, you have to do it" rule. It's just the rule. Perfect third guard for the Clips. I'm a fan.

Great move by Clippers. Bledose for his career has averaged 2.9 assists per a game and 2 TOs a game.

7:39 -- Our no. 1 pick? Yup … Kyrie Irving. You know, because any time you can grab a freshman point guard who missed two-thirds of the season when you have $20 million of point guards on your roster, you have to do it. We'll see how this goes: I see him settling somewhere between an extremely poor man's Chris Paul and a rich man's Mike Conley. Will he ever make an All-Star team? It's possible … maybe one or two.

Irving has only put together one of the better rookie PG seasons ever.

8:29 -- Ladies and gentleman, it's Jimmer Time! Sacramento just grabbed him with the 10th pick. I see him becoming a more consistently explosive version of JJ Barea, only with deeper range. That's a guy you'd want on your team, right?

No.

9:12 -- The Knicks take 2-guard Iman Shumpert at no. 17 (huh?), followed by lusty boos from the Knicks fans in Newark, the obligatory shot of a confused Spike Lee, and David Stern blessing the pick by saying, "Iman is not with us tonight." Ooooof.

Shumpert and Faried ended up being steals of the draft.

8:30 – Apparently the Lakers are trading Kobe this summer – they just took 17-year-old, 290-pound center Andrew Bynum with the 10th pick. I'm speechless. The best high schooler in the draft (Green) and the best perimeter player (Granger) just inexplicably dropped out of the top 10. You figure it out.

I can't figure it out either. Bynum? Imagine Lakers with Gerald Green!

4:54: Andy Katz tells us Seattle is keeping the No. 4 pick. Unfortunately, Seattle isn't keeping its team. Anyway, the Sonics pull a minor shocker by taking Russell Westbrook. Loved his potential, loved him all season ... but even I can't defend that one. "Who would have thought last year at this time that Russell Westbrook would have been the fourth pick in this draft?" Bilas asks. Last year? What about last week? What about five minutes ago?

No one can defend picking Westbrook. Unforgivable.

5:10: So much for Minnesota doing the right thing. The Wolves just took Syracuse's Jonny Flynn … whom I really like … but … well … he's a point guard.

I agree drafting two PG was dumb, but he did say he really liked Flynn..

7:42 -- Heather Cox interviews Kyrie's dad, Drederick, under the NBA's little-known rule, "Any time a lottery pick's father is in the audience, you have to interview him." Uh-oh, guess who's on the clock ….
KAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHN!!!!!!!!!!!!
A quick recap of Kahn's 24 months in charge: his Timberwolves lost 132 of 164 games; he used the fifth and sixth picks in the 2009 draft to take a Spanish guard who couldn't come over for two years and a point guard who bombed so badly that he's probably getting traded tonight;

What happened Simmons? I thought you really liked the guy?

Celtics Revival

2012-04-05T11:10:00.001-04:00

I can not get enough of Avery Bradley. He is already one of the best defensive guards in the league and in a year or two could be the top one. He is currently better then the overrated 1st team defender Rondo. His D on Wade and Rose in the playoff will be crucial if they want to make a run. He is the smaller Tony Allen, but smarter on the offensive side. Like Tony Allen, he still has some trouble with his handle and his shot is very inconsistent, but he is extremely smart without the ball and gets almost all of his points doing backdoor cuts while his man is paying attention to Rondo or whoever else has the ball. The other way he scores is off of TOs he forces or just out hustling his man on fast breaks. Rondo finally has a someone who wants to run at every chance.

At this point I actually think he is the better starting SG for the Celtics then Ray Allen. Allen defense has fallen off tremendously, and although Allen does spread the floor, so does all the other starters (with KG as C). Bradley brings something that Celtics desperately need, someone who actually cuts towards the basket. Most of the time when scoring gets stagnate in Celtics first unit it is due to everyone 'spreading the floor' and just waiting for something to happen. Bradley makes the defense move and gives other options besides just resetting or shooting long jumper.

Another change for the Celtics is KG at center. He is now forced to play in the low post and is matched up with bigger slower Cs who can't chase him or contest his perimeter jumper. And, like usual, his defense has been great. Watching Love struggle to do anything against KG last week was one of my favorite games of the season. As starting PF this year Garnett averaged 14.3 points, 7.5 rebounds, 2.5 assist, .8 blocks, .7 steals, and was shooting .496%. As starting C he averages 16.8 points, 8.8 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 1.4 blocks, 1.2 steals, and has shot .526%. His averages have gone up drastically in every single category since moving over.

The last big change for the Celtics has been Pierce finally shaking off the rust. He was named Eastern Conference Player of the Month for March. You can always tell when he is feeling good by just looking at his rebounding numbers, where he has averaged 7.6 in his last 10 games. He also had 6 games with 25+ points and dropped his season high of 36 on the Bobcats. I do not think the Celtics will be much better then they are right now for the rest of the season. While the chances are still very slim, I have some hope for first time all season they can really make a run.

On second thought..

2012-03-10T17:58:00.000-05:00

John Shannon of Sportsnet in Canada said on Friday that Glen Grunwald, former general manager of the Raptors, said 'no' to a trade that would have sent Dirk Nowitzki and Steve Nash to Toronto for Vince Carter and Antonio Davis.

Nowitzki and Nash were members of the Mavericks at the time.

History would of been rewritten if Raptors had accepted this. Grunwald was hired by then, executive vice president Isaiah Thomas, so we can put the blame on him for this one too.

Finding New Ways to Fail

2012-03-09T18:19:00.001-05:00

Wow..

Wild Wild West

2012-03-01T14:50:00.003-05:00

The West is wide open for anybody to take; every team has its flaws from Oklahoma City all the way down. Here is how I see the contenders.

28-7

The Thunder are one of the most talented teams and have one of the best home court advantages in the league. They are 15-1 at home, and it is not by coincidence. The problem for them is it may come down to coaching. Two years ago, when the young Thunder took the Lakers to 6 games in the playoffs before losing, you chalked it up to being young, inexperienced, and not knowing better. But now, Scott Brooks has no excuse for a lack of execution late in close games. Westbrook is still taking too many shots away from Durant, and being a scorer much more then distributor. They still look horrible at creating good shots when they need them. It seems like Durant and Westbrook go back and forth every possession with who will go 1-1 and usually end up with long jumpers. They hit more then you would expect since they are both elite players, but it is not what you want them to be doing and won't cut it in a 7 game series. Their half court offense is not good and they would probably be better off letting Harden run their offense in late-game, half-court sets.

24-11

Popovich continues to impress. His team gets older but they still remain near the top of the pack. This is especially impressive in this condensed season. The little youth they do have does look good, Splitter and very versatile Kawhi Leonard, but this is still a team that lives and dies with their big three. They are too prone to injuries and also to just tiring out by the end of the season, like what happened last year in the playoffs.

20-12

Billups' injury hurt this team much more then people think. He was playing 30 minutes a game and was able to give Paul much needed rest from running the point. They now have a huge hole and desperately need another point guard. Mo Williams is simply not good--it is not a coincidence that he has the lowest adjusted +/- on the team, Bledsoe is not ready to be in NBA, and Foye is not a PG. The Clippers' starting lineup looks great (minus Foye), and Griffin has started making some needed adjustments on the defensive side, but once the 2nd unit comes in it just gets very ugly.

21-14

Talk about having no depth. The Lakers have the worst depth of any team over .500...maybe even of any team in the league. Once you get past Kobe, Bynum, and Gasol, they literally do not have one single mediocre player. Without a trade they are one of the few playoff contending teams that I think has no chance of getting to the Finals in the West.

21-15

I don't think anyone expected Houston to be good after Adelman left. They seemed like they were overachieving last year and that Chuck Hayes and Adelman were some of the bigger reasons why. Lowry has turned in a great performance so far this year and is in the running for the most improved player of the year award. He is also one of the best defensive point guards in the league. They have gone 19-9 since January 10th with some impressive wins @Denver, @Portland, San Antonio, and Philly. Kevin McHale has done a great job at holding people responsible and has had no problem yanking anyone out at a moment's notice for lack of effort (ask Kevin Martin and Dalembert). This is still a overachieving team that I think has no shot of coming out of the West due to lack of talent, but what they have done so far is still impressive. Credit goes mainly to Lowry and McHale.

21-15

The Mavericks came into the season looking like they thought the regular season was not worth fighting for. Most of the team looked very out of shape and like they had not shot a basketball since game 6 of the finals. But since a 3-5 start they have gone 18-10. For most of the season they have been very streaky and have lost 3 in a row already 3 times this season, while also going on an impressive 6 game winning streak against teams all with a .500 record or better. They clearly still have the skill players to win, just mentally are not where they need to be yet. The surprising part is they have been winning with defense and the best defensive efficiency of any team in the West. This is especially surprising considering that the man considered to be their main defensive stopper, Chandler, left in the off season for the Knicks. Marion has stepped up in a big way on the defensive end in his absence, routinely covering the best offensive player on the opposing team. Nowitzki has been playing much worse then usual and admitted to having a hard time getting excited after finally winning a ring. He is shooting his worst fg% (and true shooting%) since his rookie year, is shooting under .300 from deep for the first time since his rookie year, has his lowest rebound per game average since his 2nd year in the league, and has his lowest PER since his 2nd year in the league. The one good surprise coming from the Mavs this year is the play of Vince Carter. He has been playing good defense for maybe the first time in his whole career. If they go into the playoffs healthy and with the right mentality theycould easily be in the finals again.

20-15

After last year surprise win over San Antonio in the first round and taking Oklahoma City to 7 games a lot of people thought coming into the season Memphis was going to be a real competitor. Injuries have killed them. Zach Randolph has played 4 games this season and Darrel Arthur did not play one. This has left a huge whole in their frontcourt and forced them to trade for Marreese Speights. Speights can shoot, but is terrible at pretty much everything else, including putting effort into the game and being in shape. The one good thing to come of all this is Gasol, who is turning in his best season of his career. When Randolph does return, which should be in a week or so, the starting front court should be great. They still have one of the best defensive wing players in the league in Tony Allen, the very underrated Conley, and Rudy Gay (who was missing in last year playoffs). With Arthur not coming back, the Grizzlies will always be thin up front, but it is not like there are a lot of teams that are deep there anyway. Although it is a small chance, they can make a run again if Randolph plays at the same level he did last year and Gasol keeps up his play.

19-17

The Nuggets are one of the deepest teams in the NBA. Them and the 76ers seem like they were custom built for this shortened season. Both teams are extremely deep and do not rely on one player. The problem for the Nuggets is injuries. Nene has missed a good amount of games and even when he does get on the court he has not been close to 100%. He probably wont be 100% all season. Gallinari has also missed 11 games and Lawson has missed 5. They started out 14-5 before the injury bug really hit. They have gone 5-12 since. When they are healthy it looks like Ty Lawson and Gallinari have taken huge strides. Andre Miller continues to be one of my favorite players, and one who will never get the credit he deserves. People forget he dropped 50 last year. He is one of the more savy veterans in the league. Although Denver is made perfectly for the regular season, it is very hard to win in the postseason without an elite player. The only team to successfully do that is the Pistons, and that team was full of people who were near elite. Denver, when healthy, would be one of the few teams recently who does have a chance. Especially in the West where almost all the teams besides OKC who do have elite players are extremely thin.

18-17

The Trail Blazers are out of the playoffs right now, but of all the teams who are close to being in (Minnesota is 18-18 and Utah is 16-18), the Blazers have the best chance of making a serious playoff run. They are continuing their trend from last year of doing absolutely horrible on the road (24th road record in NBA), but have the best power forward in the league (sorry Love) and can create some scary line ups. Batum can be a superstar in the upcoming years and is built the same way as Paul George--extremely long, athletic, can shoot the 3 or go down low, and can play defense against opposing teams' 1, 2 or 3. When he realizes his potential, and he is on his way, he could be scary. Gerald Wallace seems like the forgotten man, but still contributes and is basically an older Josh Smith (without the atrocious shot selection). He's good at everything, but not great at anything. Add a healthy Camby, big if, and their 2-5 are great. Portlands' problem though is their point guard situation. Raymond Felton, who is notorious for being overweight and not in shape, showed up in worse shape then ever after the lock out. He has played embarrassingly bad and has shot a career low .376 with a true shooting % of .455, and also has the highest turnover rate of his career. The other option they have is Jamal "no shot I don't like" Crawford. He may have the quickest dribble in NBA and one of the more fun highlight reels to watch, but he is not a player I want on my team, particularly at the point. He is averaging 12 shots a game and 14 points. Not good. They also don't have a perimeter player who can create late in close games, so they often rely on Crawford, which usually ends up being a bad contested long jumper. There are rumors that the Blazers are going after Steve Nash. While it's unlikely the Suns give him up, if they do and Portland is able to keep most of the core, watch out.

NBA Mid-Season Awards

2012-02-24T11:27:00.010-05:00

MVP

LeBron James, and it isn't close. Chris Broussard thinks that Kevin Durant has LeBron beat out. Broussard should stick to getting breaking news from his bevy of sources, because his analysis is clearly sub-par. LeBron has a better true shooting percentage than Durant; he has a (much) better assist rate; he has a better turnover rate; he has a higher usage rate; he has a better rebound rate; and he's a far superior defender. So yeah, I don't really see room for an argument for Durant, despite his very good year. In fact, Chris Paul's incredible fourth quarter numbers (his PER in the fourth quarter is over 35 and is best in the league) and transformation of the Clippers into a contender in the Western Conference leads me to put him ahead of Durant as well, though only by a hair.
Top five: James, Paul, Durant, Dwayne Wade, Dwight Howard

Rookie of the Year

Kyrie Irving, and this race is also landslide. Irving is a 19 year old with a PER over 20. He (along with a healthy Anderson Varajao) has led the Cavaliers from a complete joke into a competitive team. Rubio is a blast to watch, but desperately needs to improve his shooting. Leonard is the only player on the list playing productive minutes for a contender. Ayon has a PER of nearly 20 and easily leads the Hornets--who, unlike the Bobcats, at least look they are trying--in adjusted plus minus.
Top five: Irving, Rubio, Kawhi Leonard, Gustavo Ayon, Isaiah Thomas

6th Man

When are we going to get a close race? As long as Scott Brooks keeps James Harden coming off the bench, he should have this one nailed down. Harden has a true shooting percentage of almost 65% and a higher assist rate than Russell Westbrook. He's also third in the league in adjusted plus minus.
Top five: Harden, Lou Williams, Andre Miller, Al Harrington, Mo Williams

Coach of the Year

Tom Thibodeau by a smidge over Gregg Popovich, with Doug Collins not far behind. People forget that the Bulls were not a defensive juggernaut before Thubodeau came along. And this year, they are even third in the league in offensive efficiency, behind only Miami and Oklahoma City. Meanwhile Popovich, despite injuries, has San Antonio playing like a championship contender. And Collins is getting everything possible out of his Sixers team.
Top five: Thibodeau, Popovich, Collins, Frank Vogel, Rick Carlisle

Defensive Player of the Year

No one stands out here. Dwight Howard is still the league's most feared defender, but with Orlando having only the league's 12th best defensive efficiency, he is not playing up to his usual standard (though it should be noted that he's surrounded by horrid defenders). Andre Iguodala is the most important defender on the team with the NBA's best defensive efficiency. Tyson Chandler has greatly helped turn the Knicks into a top-10 defense. And LeBron is doing his usual work on the wings. My ballot right can be seen below, but this race is close enough that it will likely change over the rest of the season.
Top five: Iguodala, Chandler, Howard, James, Tony Allen

Most Improved

Linsanity! Yes, Jeremy Lin played terribly against the Miami Heat last night, but let's not discount what he's done since being placed in the starting lineup. He has a PER over 22 and has obviously been a key cog in many of the Knicks' wins. And talk about "improved"...this from a guy who got pretty much no run last year. Lin has been overhyped, but he's also a lot better than he showed yesterday. The Heat didn't show the league some new "blueprint" for stopping Lin (his penchant for turning the ball over when faced with ball pressure and long arms was already out there), they just executed well and are a terrible matchup for him.
Top five: Lin, Ryan Anderson, Greg Monroe, James Harden, Kyle Lowry

Just How Well is LeBron Playing Right Now?

2012-02-16T10:46:00.006-05:00

LeBron James is absolutely torching the league so far this season. Most people (with at least some justification) have little interest in his regular season performances anymore, and simply want to see if he can win a ring while having some sterling games in the Finals. But it's worth marveling at what we are currently witnessing.

James' PER is currently 32.49. best in the league. His teammate Dwayne Wade has the second highest PER at 26.59, just above Chris Paul, who comes in at 26.52. Kevin Durant and others closely follow.

The difference between James' and Wade's PERs is about 6 (5.90 to be exact). If you drop 5.90 "points" off Wade's PER you get...Spencer Hawes, who has the league's 31st highest PER. That's right, the difference between the #1 and #2 PER is the same as the difference between the #2 and the #31 PER.

How rare is this kind of statistical dominance? John Hollinger's website includes all PERs since the 2002-03 regular season. During that time frame, the difference between the player with the top PER and the second place finisher has been: 1.21, 3.09, 1.30, 0.76, 1.34, 0.03, 1.17, 2.36, and 1.58. Of that group of numbers, even 3.09 is somewhat of an outlier. And it's barely more than half the gap between LeBron and Wade as of now.

And unlike players like Kevin Love, Derrick Rose, and Greg Monroe, who benefit greatly from a purely box-score driven composite statistic like PER because it hides their defensive deficiencies, LeBron is also one of the best defenders in the league (as has been detailed on this blog on a number of previous occasions).

We are still a tad less than half-way into a shortened season, so who knows whether LeBron can sustain this level of dominance. And we'll all be holding our breath in the Playoffs and wondering whether he will settle for long distance jumpers in crunch time (or even allow the opposing team to simply erase him from the play). But for now, lets appreciate the historic performance that is being displayed.

Who are the Best "Clutch" Players in the NBA?

2012-02-15T11:09:00.007-05:00

I'm expecting that we will be flooded over the next few days with stories of Jeremy Lin's "nerves of steel" and "iron will.". However, while metaphors involving metallic products are fun, such stories are almost always predictably silly. Players do not become good shooters over the last few minutes of a close game when they are usually bad shooters. And good shooters do not become bad shooters in the clutch. Nerves are steel are, by and large, a myth.

So what actually does make someone a good clutch player? In my mind, it boils down to two things. First, shot selection. And second, the ability to manufacture points out of slow developing half court sets. I will touch on each of these in turn.

Too many players stop running real plays at the end of the game, and instead dribble for 15 seconds around the top of the key and then hoist up long jumpers when they don't see a clear opening into the paint. Contested long jumpers are bad shots at any point of the game, including over the last few minutes. For example, consider LeBron James. LeBron shouldn't be shooting even semi-contested three pointers in the first quarter, and he shouldn't be shooting them in the clutch. But he (and others, he is not alone) have a very bad tendency of shooting more long jumpers in these situations than they would otherwise. LeBron got lucky with these shots last year in the playoffs against Boston and Chicago, hitting them at better than his usual rate. But he, predictably, regressed to the mean in the Finals. Another, far more flagrant, example of this phenomena is Kobe Bryant. Kobe forces up bad shot after bad shot at the end of close games, believing that he simply must will his team to victory. And because they are bad shots (and again, not because of nerves), he usually misses them. Don't believe me? Take a look at this chart, courtesy of Zach Lowe. The lesson is clear: teams need to work for high quality looks in the waning seconds in the same way that they would at any other time during the game.

Of course, this is easier said than done. Many teams thrive on quick shots and on player and ball that are difficult to replicate when you are trying to nurse the clock. So, who does have a game that is best suited for these situations? Numero uno: Chris Paul. Despite popular perception, Paul's teams have always gone at a plodding pace. He usually calls for the ball immediately and then walks up the floor. A play is then set up around the top of the key, and the team goes from there. This model translates perfectly to the end of the game because nothing needs to change. The same plays can be executed as the clock winds down. Making matters even better is the fact that Paul is "allowed" to pass without worrying about being criticized by the media. Whereas other top dogs like LeBron are described as "unwilling to step up" when they pass to open shooters for a last shot, Chris Paul and other point guards are considered exceptions to this rule because their position dictates that they are supposed to pass.

Shockingly, a contrasting example of the kind of player that thrives in the closing minutes is the most overrated player in basketball: Carmelo Anthony. Like Paul, Anthony does not need to change his game in the clutch. Carmelo can continue to be very good at shooting highly inefficient shots. These shots still are far from optimal at any point in the game--while Carmelo hits them far more often than most, he still does not make them at a high enough rate to make them "good shots." But if your team refuses to run a real play, and instead is going to rely on isolation and a star jacking up a shot no matter what, you may as well rely on a guy who plays that way no matter the situation and is better than pretty much anyone else at the strategy.

Super Bowl XLVI Game Notes

2012-02-08T10:03:00.000-05:00

As a Patriots fan, that was one of most depressing sporting events to see. Here are some things that probably won't get talked about (I wouldn't know, I'm not watching any espn or football coverage for a while).

Steve Weatherford was the closest a punter will ever get to Superbowl MVP. He pinned Patriots inside their own territory 4 times in the game. Punters/Kickers always get overlooked as just side notes, but they are one of the most important players on the field.
After such a dominating performance by Wilfork in the AFC Championchip I was expecting a much better showing in the Superbowl. Giants interior lineman were thought to be a weakness that Wilfork and Patriots could easily take advantage of. There was no pressure up the middle all game.
Mankins played horrible. A lot of the pressure that Brady felt during the game was coming from the man Mankins was blocking.
Yes, if Welker caught that pass the Patriots would probally of had a parade yesterday, but that was not the only play that can be pointed at. 12 men on the field, Ninkovich offsides on 3rd and long, Bradys safety, and all the Giants fumbles falling right into Giants players.
The interception Brady threw was a hard decision. It was amazing he was still on his feet for that long after the quick pressure Giants got to him off the snap (from Mankins man). Brady had gone through his first three reads before even getting to Gronkowski who was 1-1 with a linebacker who was teaching at a school a couple of weeks ago. It would be an easy decision if Gronk was 100%, but he clearly was not. You could see in the replay that he tried to come back for the ball but just couldn't push off his ankle to do so. With the way Patriots were driving the smart decision would of been run for quick 5 yards and keep the drive going, but you have to understand the throw. It was not the same as the interception vs. Ravens in which he threw to Slater who was double teamed.

Overall, a good game by Pats on all sides but a couple unlucky bounces, drops, and a couple dumb plays (12 man, safety) was their undoing.

Most Embaressing Pro Sporting Event Is..

2012-02-01T10:09:00.000-05:00

Inspiring play at the line of scrimmage

The Pro Bowl. Can it get any worse? In football there is no real middle ground, either you are going all out, or you are not going at all. In Basketball, where the all-star game is not the most exciting thing in the world either, it can at least be fun to see players throw alleys, try new dunks, and go one on one and do and-1 type of moves they can not do in the regular game. In football, they hike the ball, lineman on both sides don't even pretend to try or care, and QB just throws it deep to receiver who is being half heartily covered. I can not say it is the players fault, they are most likely already being underpaid with no guaranteed contract. There is no way they should risk injury for a game that does not mean anything. The pro bowl will never be popular or entertaining unless they drastically change the game. No amount of dumb gimmicks, like allowing players to tweet during the game, will change it. My solution, give pro bowl mention to O-lineman and D-linemen and a free trip to Hawaii and seats on the bench, and then have the game be 7-7 flag football with only skill players. Might not be the greatest, but can't get any worse.

It Was a Bar Fight!

2012-01-30T11:01:00.000-05:00

If you haven't seen this latest great KG interview, here it is. Anyone else wonder if KG has ever been in a real bar fight? He came to the league out of high school, has never had any off the court issues, and is known to not go out much (He asked Billups if he should go to Boston and was worried about lack of nightlife here. Billups responded, "What do you care, you don't go out anyway."). Barkley on the hand, should know very well about bar fights.

Inside the NFL - 2012 AFC Championship

2012-01-27T10:57:00.000-05:00

Another great video made by NFL. Some of the highlights.

"Hey, we're on the big screen right now! give me a chest bump!" -Gronkowski

"You gotta (expletive) keep your head up and wrap the crap up on a tackle and hit with your (expletive) eyes. You can't go in there and throw your goddamn ass into him. Just make the (expletive) tackle." -Bill Belichick

"Yo, that bar is giving me (expletive) energy. I was so hungry." -Gronkowski

Biggest Super Bowl Loser?

2012-01-26T09:26:00.000-05:00

Michael Silver of Yahoo Sports got it correct. Here is his great explanation as to why Sexy Rexy is the biggest loser of the super bowl.

1) Rex Ryan: If Super Bowl week will be uncomfortable for Manning, it’s a full-fledged fiasco for Sexy Rexy. The Jets’ coach must wistfully watch a media circus involving not his favorite public personality (himself) but, instead, the two franchises he has openly targeted and – as of right now – failed to surpass. The Patriots, with whom the Jets have vied for AFC East supremacy (and the team they eliminated from last year’s playoffs, which triggered a whole lot of gloating), have reestablished themselves as the Team of the Century. The Giants, the object of Ryan’s competitive taunts since he took over as coach before the ’09 season, not only humbled him in a late-December victory that essentially killed the Jets’ playoff hopes, but they also improved to 5-0 in NFC championship games (Ryan is 0-2) and are the clear-cut Kings of the City. In Ryan’s 2011 book, “Play Like You Mean It,” he wrote, “I have news for you. We are the better team. We’re the big brother. People might say they are the big, bad Giants, but we are not the same old Jets. … To me, it seems clear that right now we are the better team and we are going to remain the better team for the next 10 years. Whether you like it or not, those are the facts, and that’s what’s going to happen. I know it’s going to happen because our style of football is different. We are going to take over the town whether the Giants like it or not, so those fans on the fence that like both teams are going to be Jets fans in the end. The truth is, if I am going to watch one game, I am going to see the Jets, without a doubt. We are better.” Uh, what was that you were saying, Little Bro? You’d think Ryan might have backed off after hearing taunts like “it’s time to shut up, fat boy” from Giants running back Brandon Jacobs, but the man can’t help himself. (To be clear, as a journalist, I am not complaining about this in any way.) Before the AFC championship game, Ryan, a former Baltimore defensive coordinator, went on New York’s WFAN and proclaimed, “First off, the Ravens are going to win this game.” Alas, they didn’t – and now there’s no question that Ryan is the Biggest Loser of Super Bowl XLVI, regardless of what happens in the game.

Super Bowl XLVI Predictions

2012-01-25T15:12:00.003-05:00

It's a lot harder to predict a football game than a basketball game. One play can change a whole game, and often times, that play will be a lucky one. If you need evidence of this proposition, then just look at last week's games, where a kicker shanked a 30 yarder that would of sent a game to OT, and a punt returner fumbled/muffed two punts that led to two crucial scores. With that disclaimer out the way, here are my predictions.

As a Patriots fan, I both wanted and feared the Giants. The Patriots need to beat them to make this year official and to avenge their ruined perfect season. The 49ers would of been a much easier opponent, as their offense is essentially Vernon Davis and Frank Gore. Alex Smith is more athletic than given credit for, but is still a one read QB. The Patriots should not of had too hard a time containing that offense and putting some points on the board.

The Giants offense features a revitalized running game (not too hard to revitalize when you're 32nd in the league) and one of the better 1-2 punch at WR in football. Eli Manning is playing great, and the pass rush might be the best in the NFL right now. Those two things, WRs and pass rush, are the two biggest problems for the Patriots in the recent history. If you can get to Brady with rushing 4 or less, and are therefore able to drop 7 back in coverage, it is huge. The Patriots DBs, although they have been playing better recently, are still a huge liability, and Nicks and Cruz should be able to abuse them. Working against the Giants is they do not have a great O-line, they have poor LBs, and their DBs are overrated due to pressure created by the pass rush. For much of the year, the Giants' pass defense wasn't all that much better than the Patriots.

Patriots have arguably the best QB in the game right now, the best two TE combo, and their offense is extremely hard to match up with. When you see two TEs in the offensive huddle you can not assume anything. Against most teams, a defense can look at who is on the field, and then send out the appropriate package to defend it. But if you play small and send your nickel defense vs. 2 TE sets against the Pats, then they will run it up the gut. BenJarvus Green-Ellis is not the most talented RB in the league, or even on his own team, but he gets what is blocked, doesn't dance, falls forward, and never fumbles... literally.. he never fumbles. When the defense sends out the run stopping unit vs. the 2 TE sets the Pats can easily spread the field and force opposing defense's run stopping LBs to match up with Gronkowksi and Hernandez, which is not good. Either way, you have to pick your poison. And this is all without even mentioning the WR with the 2nd most receiving yards in the NFL, Wes Welker. The Patriots need to be balanced on offense, not outsmart themselves with trick plays (running sweeps with Hernandez on 3rd and short in the redzone), and keep Brady standing. The best defense against the Pats has been trying to confuse Brady with zones while rushing 4, and hoping your pass rush can get to him. It worked for the Cowboys, Steelers, and Giants so far this year.

On the Patriots defensive side, their D-line has been a whole different unit the 2nd half of the year compared to the 1st (one has to wonder if Haynesworth's leaving helped). They have been getting pressure from Mark Anderson from the the DE position, and Wilfork has been doing a great job of pushing the line. The front 7 has also been playing well vs. the run this year whenever Spikes has been there. NFL Films analyst Greg Cosell calls Brandon Spikes, "arguably the most physical and violent inside linebacker in the NFL." Kyle Love is one of the more underrated players there is, and combined with Wilfork is one of the harder DTs to move. The Patriots need to get pressure on Manning, make him feel uncomfortable, and limit the big plays as much as possible. They also really need to get him off the field on 3rd downs. Also, Manning has been prone to throwing interceptions throughout his career, and the Patriots defensive backs have been pretty good ballhawks this season, so turnovers could be huge.

The Patriots and Giants played earlier this year, it came down to the last possession, when the Giants marched down the field to score with 15 seconds left to go up 24-20. All points were scored in the 2nd half. The Giants won the turnover battle as Brady threw 2 interceptions, lost a fumble, and had to watch as Edelman lost a fumble on a punt return. This was a game in which Nicks and Ahmad Bradshaw did not play due to injury, Haynesworth (cut 3 days after the game) was still on the Pats, both Spikes and Chung left before the finish due to injury, and Andre Carter was not injured yet.

I think Brady and Belicheck will not allow this team to lose again to the Giants in the Super Browl. Brady will rebound from his worst rated playoff game ever and play well, while limiting mistakes, the Patriots D will come up with some big plays on the D-line and from the linebacking core, BGE will run for 75+ yards, and Eli Manning will make a few costly mistakes. Patriots 31 Giants 21

Magic's Secret Defensive Strategy

2012-01-24T09:21:00.004-05:00

Watch Magic's bench.

Tim Tebow Magic!

2011-12-12T10:55:00.000-05:00

The man has something special. Right when you think its over that special thing comes up, saves the day, and earns him a W. Some people call it intangibles, I call it defense, luck, and a running game.

The Broncos are now 7-1 since Tebow took over as starting QB. In all of the wins the defense has held opponents to an avg of 16 points per a game and only twice allowed more then 15 points. In only two of those games has the Bronco's scored more then 17 points. During that same period of time Denver has gotten 1 onside kick, had a punt return for a TD, won a game with 2 passing completions, had a defensive TD, missed fg in OT by the opposing team, had their kicker kick 2 50+ yard fg in OT, had their kicker hit a 59 yarder to tie a game, and forced and recovered two fumbles in OT in two different games. When you actually look at all three of Tebow's great OT winning drives, they covered a combined 73 yards with 24 of them coming on one McGahee run, meaning Tebow has covered a combined 49 yards. Magical. But, as Tebow says, "If you believe, then unbelievable things can sometimes be possible."

Your 2011-2012 New Orleans Hornets!

2011-12-11T11:33:00.002-05:00

Thanks to an inability to make any moves until Chris Paul gets dealt, and an inability to deal Chris Paul until David Stern decides he doesn't want to run the NBA as though he's Vladimir Putin, the New Orleans Hornets roster currently reads:

Guards: Chris Paul, Willie Green, Jarrett Jack, Justin Dentmon, Jerome Dyson, Carldell Johnson, Terrico White

Forwards: Trevor Ariza, Quincy Pondexter, Patrick Ewing Jr., DaJuan Summers, Moses Ehambe, Trey Johnson, Lance Thomas

Centers: Emeka Okafor, Brian Butch

This collection of "talent" is set to begin their season starts in thirteen days.

CPIII to the Lakers...Oops, never, mind, I take that back

2011-12-09T08:52:00.006-05:00

First of all, let me say that as a Celtics fan and as a resident of New Orleans, I was not pleased when I read that Chris Paul was being traded to the Lakers. I wanted Paul to go to any team BUT the Lakers, and wasn't thrilled with the Hornets return.

That being said, the turn of events after this deal was agreed to is nothing other than embarrassing. The league let Dell Demps negotiate with the Celtics, Clippers, Lakers, Warriors, and who knows what other teams for the last week. They let offers come in, and counteroffers get sent back out. Not a single word was uttered about a deal being disallowed. When Demps realized that Stephen Curry and Eric Gordon were not going to be part of any trade due to Paul's unwillingness to sign long-term with the Warriors or Clippers, he pulled the trigger on a deal that would have netted the Hornets three bona fide starters: Lamar Odom, Luis Scola, and Kevin Martin. They also would have received Goran Dragic and a first round pick. And the Lakers were giving up Pau Gasol, one of the top 20 players in the league, and last season's 6th Man of the Year. I would have preferred a deal in which the Hornets got more pieces for the future, but considering that everyone knew that their feet were to the fire, Demps' haul was far from a swing and a miss. Should they have agreed to the Celtics offer--Rajon Rondo, Jeff Green, and 2 first rounders--instead? Perhaps, but it's debatable. Rondo easily has the most potential of anyone in either offer. But it's becoming clear that Rondo will continue to be a confounding player, whose shooting woes substantially detract from all his positives. And Jeff Green, well, he's the guy that Danny Ainge traded for last year in a deal that was pretty much universally derided. Noone really cares about Jeff Green.

So Dell Demps agreed to a deal that would have left the Hornets with a competitive team, though little youth. He agreed to it after tirelessly working the phones ever since the lockout ended. And then the league, and who knows whether the "league" here refers to David Stern, Dan Gilbert, Mark Cuban, or some combination of the three, decided to pull the plug on the deal. So why did they allow for any negotiations to occur over the last week? Why didn't they just say from the get-go that Paul couldn't be traded until a new owner came in? And what exactly are the Hornets supposed to do now?

Floyd Mayweather vs. Larry Merchant

2011-09-20T12:01:00.002-04:00

The above might be the greatest poll espn has ever made. I took Merchant by KO. In all seriousness, what Mayweather did was perfectly legal, but a sucker punch.

Most the blame should land on the ref, Joe Cortez. In a stoppage in the fight the ref is supposed to send both fighters to their corners, take points away, give warning, or whatever has to be done, and then tell the boxers to touch gloves and that the fight is back on. Joe Cortez did none of these things besides take the point away. The rest of the blame lands on Oritz. The number one rule in boxing is protect yourself at all times, Ortiz did not do this. He apologized once for his headbutt (which was very cheap and obviously intentional), even kissed Mayweather, and then proceeded to hug him again. There is no need for that, this is boxing, let the ref take away the point, touch gloves, and fight. He is there to beat Mayweather up, not to make friends with him. Ortiz gave Mayweather an opening and did not 'protect himself at all times.'

With all that being said, Mayweather's threw a sucker punch to win that fight. Mayweather clearly saw that Ortiz was trying to apologize and was not ready to fight. Ortiz was backing up from hugging him and was looking at the ref with his hands down waiting for indication that the fight was back on. Mayweather did not have to take advantage of a situation like that to win the fight. He could of easily won by just taking advantage of being a far superior boxer. Ortiz should not of even been in the same ring as Mayweather. If Mayweather did not want to hug he should of pushed Ortiz back and let it be known we are boxing, not exchanging pleasantries. This does not make him the cheapest or dirtiest boxer of all time, but the move he pulled is one you would expect from a guy with no chance of winning the fight to pull, not from one of the best boxers of our generation.

Sarah Palin's Contribution to Basketball

2011-09-14T10:06:00.000-04:00

You are probably wondering why a picture of Sarah Palin is on here and what she has to do with sports. This one is too good not to post up.

New Biography Claims Sarah Palin Had A One-Night Stand With Glen Rice In 1987

The National Enquirer grabbed some details from the upcoming Joe McGinniss Sarah Palin book, and this chunk is too delightful not to share with you immediately. Apparently Palin had a fling with former Heat/Hornet/Laker Glen Rice while he was in college and while she was a sports reporter in Alaska, all the way back in 1987. Rice confirms it in the book.

Here's the Enquirer:

In the book, which will be published on September 20th, McGinniss claims Sarah had a steamy interracial hookup with basketball stud Glen Rice less than a year before she eloped with her husband Todd.

Sarah hooked up with the NBA great, then a 6-foot-8 junior at the University of Michigan when he was playing in a college basketball tournament in Alaska in 1987, the book says. At the time, Sarah, just out of college, was working as a sports reporter for the Anchorage TV station KTUU.

A publishing source told The ENQUIRER that McGinniss claims Sarah had a "fetish" for black men at the time and he quotes a friend as saying Sarah had "hauled (Rice's) ass down."
[...]
In the book, McGinniss quotes Rice as confirming the one-night stand.

I guess Glen Rice was hitting more then just 3's back in his Michigan days.

Blake Griffin Is Pretty Funny

2011-08-29T20:32:00.000-04:00

Z-Bo will be Z-Bo

2011-08-23T13:17:00.000-04:00

Zach Randolph has changed from a stat machine and a team killer into a stat machine and team maker. He went from using his money to supposedly finance huge drug rings to making very smart and practical financial decisions, he opted to take his 2010-11 salary out over 18-24 months in the event a lockout happens. But, even with all the change and the all the positive, Z-Bo will always be Z-Bo.

Police say Zach Randolph met a man dealing marijuana aboard a charter cruise ship in Portland on Friday and invited him to his mansion later in order to sell weed to the 20 or so guests at Randolph's after-cruise party. James Ruben Beasley told police he was encouraged to sell marijuana to anyone interested, until he was beaten with pool cues around 4 a.m. Saturday.