Games On! Fantasy Sports Blog

And So It Begins and Pick Up Suggestions - Baseball News 4/10/2013

2013-04-10T10:00:00.001-07:00

The beginning of the season can be such a mess for fantasy owners, as they are often excited and over anxious. There is always a surprising 'drop' of a player off a roster even in deeper leagues. You have to remember that the first week (or any one week period) is too small a sample size of statistics to give a player a realistic full season judgement on. The take away is to ensure your roster moves are injury and playing time related in the early going.

Speaking of injuries, Jered Weaver and Cardinals reliever Jason Motte are both hung out to dry for at least the short term. Motte's injury will ultimately resort in a season ending Tommy John surgery. He has a tear in his UCL ligament. If you weren't already scrambling to find a replacement, now would be the time. I'm not certain how the St. Louis bullpen will shake out, but if you are betting on Mitchell Boggs keeping the role, look for a contingency plan. The smart money is on the highly skilled, young power arm of Trevor Rosenthal. Rosenthal's average fastball in his short stint in the majors has exceeded 97 MPH. He generates alot of ground balls (53%) and strikes out enough batters to make him interesting (consistently around 9 K/9 throughout his career). His control isn't remarkable but it will suffice given his other skills. I don't think you should jump all over Rosenthal as two other bullpen arms, Fernando Salas and Edward Mujica, might get the call in the 9th before the rookie. However, if you are one to bet on skills, I'd grab Rosenthal for now as at least he's going to get you strikeouts without hurting your WHIP.

The Jered Weaver injury, which early reports have him out at least a month with a broken elbow (although initially he will be on the 15 day DL), leaves a gaping hole in the rotation which will be filled initially by Garrett Richards. Richards is an interesting arm even though he struggled mightily when he was called up last season (6.0 K/9 against an awful 4.3 BB/9). He's got an average 95 MPH fastball and some solid strikeout stuff. He was boasting a 7.6 K/9 in AAA before his recall last season. Obviously, his ability to keep the ball in the park and runners off the base paths will have to be closely monitored. However, there is a big league arm here and he's worth an addition in AL only leagues and those of similar depth.

What a find Lance Berkman has been thus far, although obviously small sample size. The 37 year old has been red hot with a .480 BA thus far. There is injury risk but for the price you have to pay to trade for him, pick him up or draft him, he's a great value.

Chris Davis has been fantastic as well. For those fortunate enough to draft him, this could be a huge year for him. He's just entering his prime years at age 27.

I have to finish today with at least a nod towards Roy Halladay who's been a mess thus far this season. I have always had huge respect for his worth ethic. I just hope this is not the end of the road for one of baseball's best pitchers.

Coke Gets The Save - Baseball News 4/1/2013

2013-04-01T17:49:00.001-07:00

Argh! That's the sound of a frustrated Al Alburqerque owner. I'll be honest in stating that you will want to steer clear of the Detroit closer situation in mixed leagues. However, AL only leaguers and the like are stuck speculating on what Jim Leyland will do with three pretty talented bullpen arms in a committee. My guess is the traditionalist Leyland, well known for his odd batting line ups (if you played 2B you bat 2nd, regardless of your skill) ends up sticking with Phil Coke from here on out. Why? Just to mess with us. Coke is a solid reliever but the high strikeout and right handed arms of Joaquin Benoit and Alburqerque seem like the more obvious choice. As usual in April, its definitely not time to overreact. However, if you are seeking saves, I'd probably snag Coke as quickly as possible. Just don't drop anyone proven for him at this point.

Alot of preseason talk about Twins outfielder Aaron Hicks after an awesome spring. His major league debut was less than stellar striking out three times with Tigers ace Justin Verlander on the hill.

Nice outing from Jon Lester, striking out seven over 5 IP against the Yankees (get used to this New York). Interesting to note that Junichi Tazawa was in the set up role today. Not that this is 'news' at this point, but keep an eye Tazawa as his skills in limited innings last season were incredible.

AJ Burnett looked great striking out ten Cubs over 5.2 IP. His mound opponent Jeff Samardzija was simply better striking out nine over eight shut out innings. Carlos Marmol was awful in the ninth and was quickly pulled for Kyuji Fujikawa who nailed down the save. If you are speculating, I believe Fujikawa takes this role and runs with it.

Collin Cowgill had a monster day for the Mets with a home run and a double, collecting four RBI in the process. Cowgill's bounced around a few teams but he's one to watch. The only thing that's held him back from regular playing time has been a history of injuries. His minor league track record suggests he'll be a solid source of steals and boasts a nudge of power if he can stay in the line up. Obviously, keep your expectations in check, but if you came up short in the OF in a deep league, he's worth a speculative pick up.

The fantasy story in Washington is playing out just like many pundits thought (after one game of course). Stephen Strasburg walked no one and struck out three over seven innings and Bryce Harper mashed two home runs, the only scoring in the game.

Scott Kazmir Makes The Team and Bruce Rondon Demoted - Baseball News

2013-03-28T09:38:00.001-07:00

Ok, so there is a ton of news to discuss so let's start with a couple of recent 'surprise' items

Scott Kazmir was named the Cleveland 5th starter and I'll have to admit I'm as sceptical as the next guy. However, I think this is a buying opportunity for deep leaguers. Now before you get excited, let's lay out the risk. Kazmir was awful, just disastrous his last time around at the major league level. He was always notoriously wild (4.19 BB/9 for his career) which got progressively worse in his last three seasons. Just before he was released by the Angels in 2011 his average fast ball was clocking in at 86 MPH. Let's also factor in that two players currently in the minors, super prospect Trevor Bauer and another promising young arm in Carlos Carrasco, are chomping at the bit to take Kazmir's job. Most fantasy sites are ignoring Kazmir's spring resurgence and I can understand why as there is plenty of risk. However, the price is right, dirt cheap in this case, for me to argue that why not give the lefty a shot? Kazmir looked much improved in the spring and has a track record (although years ago) of major league success. Although there is not statistical way to back up my argument since Kazmir has been out of the MLB for a year, I'm going with my gut and adding him in an AL only league. He was once a very capable strikeout arm and a former #1 prospect. If he has learned some control of the strike zone in his time out of the league, he could be useful. Let's see what happens right?

Also, announced today that the Tigers have shipped Bruce Rondon, the highly touted hard throwing relief prospect, to the minors. This is devastating for those who used a high draft pick on the mere speculation that Rondon would sniff the Detroit's open closer role. The news release says that the Tigers are going to the vaunted 'closer by committe' which sucks for fantasy. I hedged my bet in a league last week drafting Al Alberqurque. Still, Joaquin Benoit and Phil Coke will be in the mix. Alberqurque to me is the top choice because he throws hard, he strikes out a lot of batters and is right handed. Coke will likely lose out due to being lefty (managers tend to favour the righties, especially old school ones and they don't come any more old school than Jim Leyland) and Benoit is forever the bridesmaid to the closer role. Either way I think you want Alberqurque, Benoit and then Coke in that order if you are scrambling for saves.

Brennan Boesch Fantasy Saviour.... Er

2013-03-16T05:00:00.001-07:00

Honestly, I don't really think so. The Yankees are truly desperate at this point. They are trying to fill the gigantic outfield hole left from the Curtis Granderson injury. It's funny because I can already guarantee Boesch will end up on a few fantasy owner's sleeper lists. Here's why:

1. He's a Yankee
2. He's heading into his prime years ( age 27 season ).
3. He had one awesome year at AA a few seasons back.
4. He's got some pop, which will play nicely in new Yankee Stadium.

The reasons against him having any value this season?

1. The Tigers saw fit to send him to pasture.
2. He's not a player who's consistently produced at even a mediocre level.

Still, there is one giant reason why he's not on a last second sleeper list of mine : He can't hit the baseball!!!

Strong contact rates are the key to consistent major league success. If the Tigers weren't seeing any progress by Boesch this late in the spring, why consider him an option?

The Importance Of Pre- Ranking Except....

2013-03-15T14:18:00.001-07:00

By the title of the post, this thought should be pretty much self explanatory. I'm a big believer in pre-ranking all of my players before heading into draft day. Although often a tedious exercise, it gives me a good idea of player value. For instance, maybe I really like Chris Carter ( which I do ) and I think he's going to hit 25 HR this season. Certain fantasy league sites might rank Carter well outside of the 300 top players. Instead of scrolling down a huge list of players, I just keeping picking from the top of my list. During a draft, I hate scrambling looking for players. I like to have the equivalent of a cheat sheet next to me.

It's also a must if you participate in online snake drafts where you only have 90 seconds to make a decision. Often, I have my player selected in mere seconds after my turn has begun. Not to mention technical failures! How many times in a draft have you seen where someone's computer fails, mid draft? They are at the mercy of the cursed default ranks which sometimes don't take into account recently injured players, or worse recently re-assigned players!

What really sucks is when a certain well known fantasy site has a bug in their Pre-rank web form list. Having ranked over 400 players, I almost cried when I hit save and the list came back empty! With no quick way of importing my ranks again, I had to rank over 400 players twice. An exercise in patience and blind determination.

Sigh...

So, don't forget to pre-rank your players.

Time To Knock The Dust Off This Blog

2013-03-11T19:22:00.001-07:00

I've been away for too long... Yes, its been a while since I last wrote in here. So where to start? Well how about with some sleeper candidates? Ah, let's drop the word sleeper and try to use the word 'undervalued'. At the end of the day that's what really wins you a draft, snagging players that other people do not value as much at the time, that end up producing for your fantasy team.

This time around, let's take a look at a solid AL Only league draftee, Chris Carter, newly of the Houston Astros. The Astros acquired Carter in a deal with the Oakland Athletics during the off season. Why I think he'll be undervalued is that he's a bit of an old prospect (will be 26 years old this season), so your league mate(s) who plunge knee deep into the top lists of prospects each year will miss him. He's also a batting average risk, as he's never been one to make consistent contact in the major leagues (never better than 75%, including a dismal 69% last season). Also, playing for the devoid of talent Astros means he'll have less RBI and run scoring opportunities.

Alright, so those are the negatives. You could end up drafting a batting average sucking, low run producing player on a bad team. The positives? Well for one, regular playing time. Last season, Carter only had 218 at bats, 2011 he had 44 and 2010 just 70. In three seasons he's managed 332 major league at bats. This season for a dismal Astros team, he should see 500 at bats. However, the real reason you are even reading this post is not for the playing time prognosis. Its for what can Chris Carter provide for my fantasy team?

Power. Gobs and gobs of it. In 332 major league at bats, 19 home runs. Last season, in just 218 at bats, all in the second half, he clobbered 16 of those. I'm not one to make a projection by doubling up the home run numbers. However, its reasonable to expect a .230-25-75 type season out of him, with a propensity for some solid upside. Upside you say? Well, Carter will play the majority of his games in the hitter friendly Minute Maid park in Houston. With a good power hitter being so hard to find, Carter should be in the back of your mind on draft day.

Latest Treasure Hunt Up on Sports Grumblings

2012-05-10T13:35:00.002-07:00

Hi All,

My latest weekly piece

http://www.sportsgrumblings.com/baseball/articles/articles/1610/1/Fantasy-Baseball-Treasure-Hunting/Page1.html

Ubaldo In Top Form

2012-04-07T12:18:00.001-07:00

A lot of experts were down on Ubaldo Jimenez in fantasy projections. He looked very impressive today versus a very strong Blue Jays team. He no hit the Jays thru 6 before finally surrendering a two run single to Brett Lawrie. Brandon Morrow was not as impressive but was effective over 6 IP. Both are relatively undervalued considering their talents and make for good trade targets.

More Opening Day Madness

2012-04-07T05:35:00.001-07:00

Well, it never fails that after I publish a post something happens to completely contradict it. Matt Thornton was brought in the eighth inning yesterday and although many are brushing it off as manager Robin Ventura's indecisiveness over the closer role, I can't help but speculate that he thinks Thornton is not the guy. Of course, way to early to make a hasty decision in fantasy but it raises a red flag for me. At this point in the season I would say err on the side of caution when dropping a player. Guys with talent like Thornton's can come back to haunt you if you jump ship too early.

In other action:

Both Ian Kinsler and Evan Longoria went long in their first action of the regular season. Kinsler owners know the drill by now: if he's healthy the Rangers 2B is a stud fantasy player. Longoria gets plenty of love in fantasy circles but this really could be the season he transforms into a top 5 player. He's been around a while and is just now entering his prime years. Oh and he's scary good.

James Shields didn't look as good but don't panic. He's due for a bit of a regression from his superstar numbers of a season ago. His skills are still top quality and if his owner is eager to move him, I'd be buying.

An interesting bounce back candidate could be Chone Figgins. The Mariners continue to bat him lead off and he rewarded them last night with a 3 for 4 outing with an SB. For deep leagues only right now.

This is a great start to the season with another home run for Oakland's Yoenis Cespedes who should be owned in all leagues. He's a very talented Cuban import who boasts power and a bit of speed.

Lastly for today, do not sleep on Raul Ibanez, he could have a very solid year in NY. Dismiss the age a bit and note that he had a poor year for BABIP in 2011. Yankee Stadium caters to left handed power and there might not be a better line up in the American League.

Opening Day ?!?! and AL Bullpens

2012-04-06T07:00:00.000-07:00

Sorry but I miss the good old days when all of the Opening Day games were on one day! The fact that the season starts in Japan might be good for international exposure to the game but I find it takes away from the spectacle that is the first day of the season. You remember right? When there was a full day of games, most of them in the afternoon where plenty of people who should have been working were at the ball park. Anyway, I'm being nostalgic. Baseball should continue to spread its wings internationally and for scheduling purposes they have to play the Japan games well ahead of the regular season.

As usual the closer situation in the major leagues is in fluctuation. The AL appears to be more volatile thus far where there are new closers in Boston, Tampa and Kansas City. Alfredo Aceves, Joel Peralta and Jonathan Broxton have inherited the roles thus far and are probably long gone in most fantasy leagues. Also, I think the roles in Chicago, Minnesota, Cleveland and Baltimore are hardly locks. Although every statistician revels in Matt Thornton's abilities, he struggled in the role early last season, is left handed and is 36 years old. Most managers prefer a right handed closer. That being said, I'm confident if Thornton can hold on to the job he could end up as a top 10 closer this season. The Twins closer Matt Capps is coming off an awful 2011 season but the internal options aren't much better. That being said, Glen Perkins, although left handed, boasts excellent skills from 2011. He's the handcuff if Capps struggles. In Cleveland, Chris Perez blew a save against the Blue Jays in an Opening Day marathon 16 inning loss. With Vinnie Pestano showing considerably better skills last season, it would not surprise me if he takes over the role in Cleveland, possibly in the early going. Baltimore closer Jim Johnson didn't look very good in the spring and I kind of like Matt Lindstrom as a sneaky source of saves. Lindstrom has become a better control pitcher as he has aged. If Johnson struggles, do not be surprised if Buck Showalter makes the change.

Wow, this post ended up being mostly about the bullpen.... next time out we'll step onto the field a bit.

Sorry For The Lack Of Posts Lately

2012-02-18T08:25:00.001-08:00

I am busy putting together content for the Sports Grumblings draft kit. I am knee deep in starting pitcher ranks right now. Who is your top ranked pitcher for 2012?

Prince Fielder Fantasy Dud?

2012-01-28T11:21:00.000-08:00

Its always interesting to see what insiders or experts come up with when providing statistical analysis. One of the lines of thought on Detroit newcomer Prince Fielder has been that his 'just enough' home runs in Milwaukee would be NOT enough if he had connected with the same hit in Detroit. The AL Central parks, in general, suppress left handed power hitting. This evidence is meant to support an argument which indicates a down year in 2012 for Prince Fielder. Although, I agree somewhat, I don't think this is a logical reason to expect Fielder to have less home runs for the Tigers. The one factor that is completely ignored in this type of analysis is his age. He's now 28 and entering the prime of his career, which for many athletes means an increase in upper body power. We can't expect a rise in power BECAUSE he's reaching his prime as the 'prime' age is a general age, often unique to each player. However, I don't believe the change in home parks ALONE will hurt his home run output for 2012.

Where I do see a problem for Fielder will be the pressure of the gigantic contract which now will draw him extra media attention. Since he's considered an elite player, we will expect him to rise to the expectations but many a player has struggled (I'm looking at you Carl Crawford) in the first season after signing a huge contract. Also, the change of venue from the National League to the AL. For hitters, this is generally considered a positive. Still, Fielder will need some time to adjust to AL pitchers and to his new surroundings, which include an entirely new league and division.

At the end of the day, Fielder shouldn't be considered risky as we're really debating an elite range of fantasy production. His floor for power is likely 30 home runs. Prince's ceiling is another matter entirely and that's what most of the experts are debating. With Miguel Cabrera also in the lineup pitchers will be forced to pitch at least one of them, which if you believe in line up protection (prove it to me statistically because I don't), should provide ample RBI and run scoring opportunities for both players. I would think a repeat of his 2011 statistics would not be outlandish for 2012. Just temper your expectations for an improvement this season.

Is Adam Done? - Sleepers 2012

2012-01-27T09:47:00.000-08:00

Pardon the pun of the title of the post, but what went on with Adam Dunn in 2011? Its obvious we are witnessing a regression but did other factors come into play? This is very difficult to say but there were plenty of factors I feel are greatly overlooked when writing him off for 2012. One reason that is often missed is last season was his first in a new city and a new league. Having never played in the American League, Dunn would have faced many pitchers he had never seen before. That being said, he was also playing on a new team which has been shown to somewhat reduce the production of a player in his first tour of duty in a new location. Lastly, Dunn's former manager in Chicago, Ozzie Guillen, isn't exactly known for being a "player's manager". The White Sox DH was slumping badly for most of the season and because of this likely ended up in Guillen's dog house. This lead to less at bats (deservedly so due to Dunn's results). Also, one more change: he was primarily the designated hitter for the first time in his career. I've read players that suggest this can be a difficult adjustment after being a regular position player. Still, at this point these points are pure speculation.

The hard facts, the statistics that is, suggest the Dunn 1) suffered his worst contact season of his career (65% contact rate) and 2) suffered the worst BABIP of his career (.240). I think its easy to see why he suffered through a .159 batting average in 2011. Finally, he suffered a career worst HR/FB of 9%! For a player who was regularly above 20%, this would be the leading factor in why his home run output was only 11.

Now, does all of this point to a rebound in 2012? Well, nothing is assured of course but some reasons to suggest hope: He's entering his 33rd year, well within his prime years. Dunn will be more familiar with his surroundings this season. The DH's walk rate was strong (15%). Ozzie Guillen is no longer the manager in Chicago. As with any players in the spring, there is plenty of reason for optimism and I would speculate on a small bounce back from this former OBP and HR monster.

Fielder Signs With Detroit - Baseball News - Jan. 25 2012

2012-01-25T03:35:00.000-08:00

If you haven't read already, Prince Fielder signed a 9 year deal worth approximately $24 million per year. Its pretty insane that I discussed that the Tigers would be a logical candidate to acquire him just the other day. This is a fantastic deal for the Tigers in the now as they recently lost Victor Martinez for the season. Suddenly two of the leagues most formidable bats will be in a lineup back to back. This easily makes Detroit the favourite in the Central. Fielder's fantasy value is likely to remain the same despite the change in venue. I would expect a few hiccups though as he adapts to the new surroundings. Long term, this will prove to be a bad deal for Detroit as Fielder is not a superb athlete and generally speaking those types of players age poorly. Expect a large regression after his age 35 years.

In other news, Francisco Cordero signed a 1 year $4.5 million dollar deal with the Blue Jays which will round out a suddenly solid bullpen. Cordero is expected to be the setup man for recently acquired closer Sergio Santos.

NL ONLY - What You Need To Know

2012-01-19T21:11:00.000-08:00

On the heels of my AL Only league need to know list, I'm posting the players I feel NL Only leaguers will need to know before entering their drafts. Again, I will update the list going forward, especially as Prince Fielder has yet to sign.

Coming Over From the American League

Carlos Quentin - OF - Padres
Jonathan Papelbon - RP/CL - Phillies
Gio Gonzalez - SP- Nationals
Trevor Cahill - SP- Diamondbacks
Michael Cuddyer - OF - Rockies
Jason Kubel - OF - Diamondbacks
Mark Buehrle - SP - Marlins
David DeJesus - OF - Cubs
Kevin Slowey - SP - Rockies
Guillermo Moscoso - SP - Rockies
Norichika Aoki - OF - Brewers
Erik Bedard - Pirates (interesting sleeper now that he's in the NL, IF he plays of course)
Melky Cabrera - OF - Giants
Frank Francisco - RP/CL - Mets
Jon Rauch - RP - Mets

Rookies/Upside Players Who Could See Regular Playing TIme

Yonder Alonso - 1B - Padres
Anthony Rizzo - 1B - Cubs (if he makes the team out of Spring Training)
Tyler Pastornicky - SS - Braves - Rookie who is slated to be the starter, low BA, good speed
Devin Mesoraco - C - Reds - Could be the outright starter. A lot of upside in a good hitters home park.
Mat Gamel - 1B - Brewers - Explosive AAA bat could be given a full time job in 2012.
Norichika Aoki - OF - Brewers - Depends on the outcome of Ryan Braun's suspension. My guess is that Aoki sees some regular at bats during the season.

Additionally:

Do not forget about Adam Wainright who should be ready to go for the 2012 season. He will come at a bit of a draft discount as he's coming off Tommy John surgery.

There are plenty of opportunities within the Houston Astros for some lower to middle tier fantasy production. Other than Carlos Lee, the team is full of young, yet decidedly mediocre talent. None of them will be elite producers but they will see regular at bats. Its because of this fact they deserve to be on your draft list.

AL ONLY - What You Need To Know

2012-01-18T17:19:00.000-08:00

Ok a little background to this post. I usually write up a personal list of players who have changed leagues who I think will have some value for my AL Only League. This might include the odd prospect or some rookie who is likely (or at least I feel he is) to get some regular at bats or see time in the rotation. I don't think of it as a sleeper list, but a list of players who will be of interest for AL Leaguers. Note that the list will be updated as the landscape changes before the start of the season.

UPDATED: January 27/2012

New To The American League

Albert Pujols - 1B - Angels
Prince Fielder - 1B - Tigers
Yu Darvish - SP - Rangers
Carlos Pena - 1B - Rays
Hisashi Iwakuma - SP - Mariners
Jarrod Parker - SP - Athletics
Brad Peacock - SP - Athletics
Hiroki Kuroda - SP - Yankees
Mark Melancon - RP - Red Sox (note: Next In Line for saves behind Andrew Bailey)
Jonathan Broxton - RP - Royals (could see save opportunities if healthy)
Jonathan Sanchez - SP - Royals
Chris Iannetta - C - Angels - An interesting sleeper as he saw a leap forward in overall stats in 2011. Remarkably good plate discipline.
Jason Marquis - SP - Twins
Kevin Slowey - SP - Indians (after being shipped back from the Rockies)
Francisco Cordero - RP - Blue Jays (regressing but likely the #1 guy behind closer Santos)

Interesting Rookies/Upside Players With Increased Playing Time or Role Changes (no particular order)

Jarrod Parker - SP - Athletics
Brad Peacock - SP - Athletics
Matt Moore - SP - Rays
Chris Sale - SP - White Sox (will move to the rotation in 2012)
Jesus Montero - C/DH - Mariners
Josh Reddick - OF - Athletics
Seth Smith - OF - Athletics
Dayan Viciedo - 3B/OF - White Sox (should replace Carlos Quentin)
Nolan Reimold - 1B/OF - Orioles
Chris Davis - 1B/3B - Orioles
Daniel Bard - SP - Red Sox (dominant reliever now a starter in 2012)
Jacob Turner - SP - Tigers (wait and see if the Tigers stick him in the rotation, alluring talent)
Mike Moustakas - 3B - Royals (finished 2011 strong and the 3B job is his to lose)
Mike Trout - OF - Angels -I don't see how he gets regular AB outside of an injury. Still just an awesome talent. He should at least be on an AL only bench.
Matt Capps - CL - Twins (regains the role after Joe Nathan signed with Texas)
Chris Carter/Kila Ka'aihue/Brandon Allen - 1B/DH - Athletics - I'm not certain how Oakland will hand out at bats. I like Allen the most out of the trio though. All should be on your AL only sleeper list.
Grant Balfour/Brian Fuentes/Joey Devine - CL - Athletics - someone will close in Oakland but all of these guys could be in the mix. The smart money is on Balfour, but the pitcher with the most upside is Devine. Fuentes is for the late rounds only.
Neftali Feliz - SP - Rangers (will move to the rotation in 2012)

Victor Martinez Out For Season - Baseball News - January 17 2012

2012-01-17T15:50:00.000-08:00

Well, the Tigers haven't even got started and already they are behind in the race to re-claim the AL Central Division title. Victor Martinez injured his knee in a training exercise and will now miss the entire season due to mandatory ACL surgery. His power and plate discipline will sorely be missed in the middle of the Tigers line up. I can't say for certain but I would assume Detroit will be shopping for a 1B/DH type right away and there are plenty available. It would not surprise me if they looked hard at free agent 1B Prince Fielder (not that they will at all just that he would make sense as the Tigers are a contending team). In carry over leagues, Martinez is essentially (depending on your rules of course) someone I wouldn't protect for 2012.

Plenty of action on the arbitration front as Tim Lincecum has put in claim for a record $21.5 million and Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw has asked for $10 million. Both I believe are for one year deals. Plenty of other players avoided arbitration by completing deals today including pitchers Francisco Liriano, Detroit's Max Scherzer, the Ray's David Price, Joba Chamberlain and Justin Masterson. There were an assortment of positional players that signed as well including Shin Soo Choo, Jays 2B Kelly Johnson, Dodgers 1B James Loney and big winner Jacoby Ellsbury who signed for just over $8 million per season.

In the realm of fantasy, these hearings are not really newsworthy. All of the above players will be retained by their current teams. What is interesting is the amount they actual sign for. For example, Choo was a top fantasy performer only two seasons ago but after an unusual season where he was either hurt or a non-factor he signed for just $4.9 million for this season. That's considerably low when you look at how much two more incomplete players Kelly Johnson (lack of average) and James Loney (lack of speed and power at a premium position) received (around $6 million each).

Last bits of news, Carl Crawford had minor wrist surgery. I'll be monitoring that situation closely especially after the stinker of a season he put up last year. The Brewers signed Japanese league import Norichika Aoki to add another speedy centerfielder to their already solid mix of speedy centerfielders. We discussed Aoki in previous news but for the lazy, he essentially projects to be a .300 hitter with about 20 steals type of player.

Yankees Upgrade Their Rotation

2012-01-15T09:12:00.001-08:00

New York acquires both Hiroki Kuroda and Michael Pineda over the weekend. These acquisitions represent a significant upgrade over their 2011 rotation but both pitchers will see slightly worse results in 2012. Why? Well, moving to the very competitive AL East for one but also they will both pitch in the homer friendly new Yankee Stadium more often. Do not forget that moving to a new team doesn't mean immediate success. There is often a transition period. I would resist the urge to rank either of these two pitchers higher on draft day. Great move for the Yankees but a negative one for both of their fantasy values ( ie ERA and WHIP).

Baseball News - Jan 10 2012 - Rizzo for Cashner Deal and Maholm to Cubs

2012-01-10T20:00:00.000-08:00

Anthony Rizzo and Zach Cates to the Cubs for Andy Cashner and Kyung-Min Na: The meat of this deal is Craschner for Rizzo, as Cates and Na are both Single A prospects with a long way to go before reaching the majors. Rizzo is was highly touted as the successor to Adrian Gonzalez after the latter was dealt to Boston last year. The youngster failed to produce at the major league level when he was promoted (.141-1-9-2 with a 70% contact rate) but completely destroyed AAA pitching (.331-26-104-7) last season. He's slated to start the season in the minors but the move, if he is promoted, will be a huge plus for his offensive production. Cashner routinely hits 95MPH on the radar gun and projects to be a high end reliever, although he could end up in the rotation. Despite solid strikeout rates, the young right-hander does struggle with control still.

With the recently acquired Yonder Alonso on the roster, Rizzo was from a positional standpoint, expendable. The Padres shore up their bullpen after the loss of Heath Bell and give themselves an experienced major league spot starter should the need arise. As it stands now, the Cubs in my opinion got the better of the deal as Rizzo could be a monster, especially now playing in Wrigley Field. However, Cashner was once one of the Cubs best prospects and it appears as if those skills have remained in tact. This could be the Padres closer of the future or at the very least a solid #3 starter with potential for more.

Paul Maholm signs a one year pact with the Cubs: Yeah this was the only other news from today that was worth mentioning. Maholm's move to Wrigley should not adversely effect his statistics. He's widely considered to be a ground ball pitcher (career 52%) so even though Wrigley Field is relatively 'homer happy', this shouldn't change our projections much. The main issue with the lefthander is that his career K/BB is below 2, in other words he doesn't strike out enough batters to counter the amount of walks he gives up. I don't think this changes Maholm's value much except that its more likely the Cubs homer in your league drafts what should be waiver wire fodder.

Baseball News - Jan 7 2012

2012-01-07T08:22:00.000-08:00

I hope everyone had a great holiday season! Sorry that I haven't posted lately. Instead of several smaller posts I'll bombard you with one giant one here. There was not a ton of show stopping news but teams still have been busy:

Andrew Bailey and Ryan Sweeney to the Red Sox for Josh Reddick and minor leaguers Raul Alcantara and Miles Head: Let's just get right to the point: Unless Reddick possesses some above average major league skills we are unaware of, this is a pretty big steal for the Red Sox. Boston essentially received Reddick's statistical equivalent in return in Sweeney AND the talented, although injury prone closer. The minor leaguers Alcantara and Head aren't elite prospects by any means so on the surface it looks like Oakland got the short end of the deal. However, the A's organization is famous for its intelligent projections of youngsters so maybe there is more to this deal than meets the eye. Maybe there is something seriously wrong with Bailey's arm? Anyway, with Reddick likely to get a regular role next season he should be on all deep league sleeper lists. Bailey will take a bit of an ERA hit in the AL East and the pressure in Boston is much greater than it is in Oakland. I'd be wary of Bailey in 2012.

Carlos Quentin to Padres for Simon Castro and Pedro Hernandez: Unfortunately, this trade kills Quentin's fantasy value, or at least damages it considerably. The veteran slugger is certainly better suited for the cozy confines of Cellular Field as opposed to the vastness that is PETCO Park. Considering the health risk already associated with him I'd consider projecting him lower now: .260-25-80. For the record, I would have given him a .265-30-90 line in Chicago, again have to consider his health which limits him to much less than 162 games each year. Its an interesting trade for San Diego as I don't think they are a top NL West team (not that it would take much). They certainly will not challenge the now deep and talented 2011 division winning Diamondbacks. On the flip side, I love the haul for the White Sox. For me, starter Castro is the key to the deal. In 2009, he looked like one of the top pitching prospects in the minor leagues (thanks to a 10 K/9 and 2.37 BB/9). After being promoted to AAA in 2010 he was knocked around and promptly sent back to Double A. The shine is off his top prospect status so he was considered expendable in this deal. At 23, there is still plenty of opportunity for the White Sox to develop this kid. In addition Pedro Hernandez appears to be another solid pitching prospect as the 22 year old was promoted through three levels in 2011. Don't expect to see either Castro or Hernandez much in 2012 but Chicago has now taken a few bold steps in rebuilding their farm system.

Hisashi Iwakuma signs with Seattle: The Mariners were able to sign a solid veteran Japanese league pitcher this week. Iwakuma, on paper, has the skills which should be the keys to success in the major leagues. He boasts a career BB/9 of 1.8 and averaged a solid 7.0 K/9. Entering his 31st year, I would not expect a progression in these statistics. However, Iwakuma will play home games at the pitcher friendly SAFECO Park, which I expect will assist him in first tour of duty on North American soil. Still, it cannot be ignored that with a much improved AL West, the Japanese pitcher will be challenged often. Its difficult to forecast Japanese players but with his skill set and home park you will want Iwakuma on a sleeper list, especially in AL only leagues.

Darren Oliver signs, Jason Frasor traded to the Blue Jays for a pair of minor leaguers: I'm not saying these deals were THAT interesting but I think they should be noted. With the additions of these two relievers and closer Sergio Santos, the Blue Jays have made a concentrated effort to shore up their bullpen. The AL East continues to be the most difficult division in baseball to succeed in.

Carlos Zambrano to Marlins for Chris Volstad: This is an interesting trade if only that Zambrano, at just 30 years old, gets a fresh start. On paper this trade looks like a scratch as both pitchers had similar numbers. Volstad is younger and contract controlled while Zambrano still possesses ace 'stuff' but appears to be in a losing battle after putting way too many miles on his arm early in his career. I don't think Volstad's stock improves with this trade as he benefited greatly from the deep confines of the Marlins home field. Spending more time in the home friendly Wrigley Field will only hurt this homer prone pitcher. On the other hand, I think Zambrano's talent and change of scenery make him a worthy sleeper in 2012.

Even more news - Dec 23 - Beltran signs, Gio trade, Danks

2011-12-23T06:00:00.000-08:00

Nationals get Gio Gonzalez send Brad Peacock, Tommy Milone and A.J. Cole and top catching prospect Derek Norris to Oakland : Wow do the Nationals think they will compete in 2012? Ok, maybe that's a bit harsh but I'm a big fan of Peacock's and I think this was a bit of a steal by A's GM Billy Beane. I see what he's doing (once again) trading developed major league talent for high upside starters who could be better down the road. In acquiring Gonzalez, the Nationals are certainly much improved right away. This gives them an outstanding young core of stud in the making Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmerman and Gonzalez all of whom are under contract and the age of 27. Still, the A's acquired three of the top 10 prospects in the Nationals system. Norris is one of the highest rated catchers in the minor leagues, Peacock is a major league ready starter and Cole boasted a 4.5 K/BB ratio as a 19 year old!

Carlos Beltran signs a two year deal with the St. Louis Cardinals for $26 million: Another fresh off the press deal. Beltran obviously is not going to replace the loss of Albert Pujols but he will certainly help bridge the gap. The World Champion Cardinals will need all of the offense they can get. Beltran's fantasy value will be neutral moving to the new Busch Stadium from San Francisco.

Rebuilding White Sox sign John Danks to a 5 year, $65 million dollar deal: You can never be completely sure of the motivation of a team. The White Sox fresh off of dealing their 28 year old closer Sergio Santos for a Jays prospect, then give major dollars to their 26 year old lefty. Danks would have been a fine bargaining chip for a team that was starting from scratch. Instead, it appears Chicago is simply re-tooling? Despite a 4.32 ERA, Danks suffered no skill set backs in 2011. Locking him up for $13 million per season might turn out to be decent value for the White Sox.

Twins sign Jason Marquis to a one year deal ($3 million)

Somehow, Marquis has had MLB success. I don't see his skills as worth a major league contract though. What he does well, is generate a ton of ground balls (career 50.4 GB%). What he does poorly is everything else. His career K/BB ratio is 1.5!! That's scary especially moving over to the hitter friendly American League for the first time in his career. Stay far away in fantasy leagues next season.

Baseball News - Dec 22 - Aoki won by Brewers, Kubel to D'backs

2011-12-23T03:00:00.000-08:00

Just in time for the holidays we've got plenty of MLB trades and signings to discuss.

Norichika Aoki to the Brewers: Aoki is probably off a lot of people's radars with all of the noise surrounding Yu Darvish. Still, he's worth profiling as the Brewers won the bid for his rights. Like Texas and Darvish, Milwaukee will still have to sign the 29 year old, small framed (5'9, 170 lbs) center fielder to a contract. However, unlike the Rangers who are trying to fill a gaping hole in their rotation after the departure of C.J. Wilson, Aoki presently doesn't appear to meet any needs the Brewers may have. They already have two center fielders in Nyjer Morgan and Carlos Gomez. Aoki on paper doesn't appear to boast as much speed as Morgan or Gomez (never attained more than 20 steals in Japan) but has much better plate discipline (generally around the .400 OBP mark) than either of the Brewers other options. With Ryan Braun possibly facing a suspension it appears that Milwaukee is looking for some outfield depth. We'll have to wait and see how 2012 unfolds to find out though.

Jason Kubel to the Diamondbacks (2 years $15 million): I really think this is a great sign by Arizona. Kubel is not a game changer but he's a similar bat to former team mate Michael Cuddyer who recently signed for almost $10 million per year with the Rockies. In other words, I think the Diamondbacks got a similar player and saved money in doing so. I would expect a small increase in power numbers for Kubel in the hitter friendly Chase Field if he can stay healthy. In my opinion, the veteran left fielder is a great fit for an organization trying to recapture the NL West division title.

More in a bit....

As Promised - Yu Darvish To RANGERS!! And Mat Latos to Reds

2011-12-19T18:59:00.000-08:00

Well, as 11PM the RANGERS (see here MLB Twitter ) have won the rights to discuss a contract with Yu Darvish. This of course does not guarantee he DOES sign but chances are high that Texas will get it done. This is a fantastic move for a team fresh out of the World Series and coming off the heals of losing one of their top starters C.J Wilson to free agency. I would think that the young Japanese league import will be content with a 5 year deal worth upwards of $75 million but heck he could want more. Either way, the Rangers have made a bold move here to acquire a top young talent who improves their ball club right away. We'll still need to see a signed contract before making any further projections.

Mat Latos to Reds for Yonder Alonso, Yasmani Grandal, Edison Volquez and Brad Boxberger :
What can we really say about the Mat Latos Deal? I am a big fan of this deal for the Padres but the Reds got the best player, at least for now, in the deal. San Diego received two high end prospects Yonder Alonso and Yasmani Grandal as well as often injured and under performing Edison Volquez. In addition they received right handed pitching prospect in Brad Boxberger. Let's start with Alonso, who has already seen some limited major league action. The prospect does not appear to be a star in waiting but he has displayed considerably strong BA and OBP's throughout his minor league career. The reason he's not likely to be an elite player is that despite his young age (24) he does not hit for a lot of power or run particularly well. At AAA last season he hit 12 HR and stole just 6 bases. He did hit five home runs in a short stint mostly in a pinch hitting role for the Reds last season. However, playing full time in PETCO (assuming he gets regular AB) will not benefit his power numbers. If he gets the the AB, we're probably looking at a .290-10-85-7 type season. Still, let's see how the Padres decide to utilize him before making any crazy projections.

As for Grandal, the catcher prospect was promoted in season last year to AAA, which generally means the club thinks highly of the player. He has not hit for much power but continues to impress with a minor league BA in the .295-.300 range. Generally speaking a good catching prospect is one who can handle the position defensively and also be a positive with the lumber. Grandal appears to be this type of prospect.
Volquez will probably pop onto alot of sleeper lists come spring next year. I'm certain of only one thing: he has to improve his control (5.38 BB/9) before I even look his way in a draft next year. The PETCO effect will definitely aid him though. He's one to monitor closely in late spring training.

Of course, what does Latos going to the Reds mean? Well right away we're going to have to bump up his ERA projection a bit as he's going from one of the best home ball parks for offense suppression to one of the worst. You would figure he would be in line for more wins playing for a better team but wins are fickle. I would suggest that Latos may actually lose a bit of fantasy value going to the Reds (unless he lucks into more wins). Either way, great improvement for the Reds

Yu Darvish Bid - News Later - 11PM EST

2011-12-19T16:49:00.000-08:00

There are very few sources of factual news content in regards to the Yu Darvish bid so I apologize for the previous post. Looks like the announcement WILL come tonight though, just later in the evening (11PM EST)

What I have learned is that nobody actually knows who won and the most likely suitors are still the Jays or Rangers. Essentially nothing is new from last week. I'm as frustrated as you. Nobody knows anything of real value right now except for the parties involved.

Darvish announcement tonight!

2011-12-19T10:13:00.001-08:00

It looks the Darvish bid winner will be announced tonight around 8pm EST. We will discuss the potential impact of his landing afterwards as well as thoughts on the Padres/Reds deal from the weekend.