A couple of years ago I wrote a post about Mortgage Fraud… and the dangers it can pose to sellers.  It is a good read, and can clue you in about one of the ways you (as a seller) can get dragged into fraud… and then dragged off to jail.  Be careful.

Link.

Now for a little story…  Early in my career, the agent on the other side of a transaction from me asked me to prepare a second contract and increase the sales price.  Even as a “newbie” I knew that what this “seasoned agent” was asking me to do was wrong.  My broker agreed…  The seller was fully insulated from the situation.

The problem is that the fraud evolves.  As investigators and others recognize specific tactics, the tactics are changed.  Many of them might seem to be almost logical… and the perpetrators may have a good story to spin.  But at the base, it is still fraud.

Don’t be afraid to ask your agent, you agent’s broker or even local investigators questions.  Better safe than sorry.

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Effective on March 1st, the issue between Gwinnett and 15 of its cities has been upgraded by the State of Georgia.  The 15 cities and Gwinnett are now listed with the state as No Longer Qualified Local Governments.

The cities are: Auburn , Berkeley Lake, Buford, Dacula, Duluth, Grayson, Lawrenceville, Lilburn, Loganville, Norcross, Rest Haven, Snellville, Sugar Hill, Suwanee and Braselton.

At issue are parallel services being offered by Gwinnett County and the individual cities.  Things like police services…  Several of the cities have local police departments, but Gwinnett County Police (one of the largest departments in the state) patrols the same areas.

In effect, the various cities and the county need to come to agreement on exactly who is going to provide which services in which locations.  And they need to do it quickly.  While the cities and the county are on this list, none are eligible to receive state grants, permits or loans.  Stimulus money could be held up or lost if there is a continued stalemate between the parties.

Hopefully they will be able to get this worked out prior to the end of the month and we can be restored before April.

I have spent some of the last week updating the Local Market Explorers for Buford, Duluth, Lawrenceville, Lilburn, Norcross, Sugar Hill and Suwanee.  I have added new market reports for January.

The LME also has Zillow Home Values, School information and Walk-Score information for each locality.  There is a lot of information presented…  Check it out. The links are here, as well as the bottom of each page of the website.

Lilburn, GA
Lawrenceville, GA
Duluth, GA
Suwanee, GA
Sugar Hill, GA
Buford, GA
Norcross, GA

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Last year about this time I had the opportunity to participate in the VAR Blog Brawl for real estate blogs.  There was some pretty tough competition, and it really made me stretch and elevate my game.  And it was a lot of fun.  Part of the fun for me was personally knowing a lot of the bloggers in the Brawl.

I hope that they sponsor the event again sometime.  Here is the first post from last year… announcing my entry.

If you are eligible for the First Time Home Buyer Tax Credit, or the Move-Up Buyer Tax Credit? If so, time is ticking away…  Properties have to by under contract BY April 30th, 2010.  This means that they contract’s Binding Agreement date can’t be later than that.  Offering on a property on April 30th could lead to missing the deadline.  In fact, with many bank owned properties, offers should be in in March in order to make sure negotiations are completed prior to the deadline.

After the property is “Under Contract”, it has to close prior to June 30th, 2010.  That means that the loan is done, the papers are signed and the keys are probably handed over…

There are still opportunities with new construction.  In fact, there are some custom home builders that have partially completed homes that can be completed by the deadlines…

If you are a seller… GET ON THE STICK.  If you are going on the market with a likely home that meets the criteria (under $800k…) then this is the time.  Of course, the closer you get to the $800k, the less important the credit becomes, since someone that would qualify for it would likely not be able to get financing for that amount.  But, under about $400k, there will be a flurry of market activity before April 30th… and a slowdown after.

Give me a call!

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Of my more popular posts, those dealing with ways to increase home values have been near the top.  And being a Garage Guy, the posts I’ve written about increasing home value by making a cooler garage have done quite well, too.  I get a lot of searches for cool garages and cool garage stuff… as well as making a better garage.

This has always been one of my favorites…

Inexpensively increase the value of your…

Of course, the punchline is … Garage…  That shouldn’t have been a shock to anyone.  And these are some great tips to strategically use a little money to get a bigger payback.

Lilburn is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta.  As of the 2000 Census, there were 11,307 people in Lilburn, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County.  It was incorporated in 1910.  Lilburn is home to Parkview High School, and also has students that the Brookwood, Berkmar and Meadowcreek clusters. It is also home to Killian Hill Christian School, Providence Chrisian Academy, St. John Neumann Catholic School and Parkview Christian School.  Possibly the most famous resident of Lilburn is General Beauregard Lee, a groundhog with a better winter prediction record that Puxatawnee Phil up in PA. Dominique Wilkins, formerly of the Atlanta Hawks also lives in Lilburn.

Market stats for Lilburn, January, 2010, indicate that there are 359 (January 31st) properties on the market. Overall, there is about a 10 month supply of properties, with a slight acceleration in sales during October and November, but slowing in December and January.

In the sub-$200k arena, there are 214 listings, with about an 10 month supply. The same pattrern hold that sales accelerated through October and November and slowed after that.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 128 listings for sale, and about 10.5 months of supply. Even though the tax credit for First time Home Buyers wasn’t as important to this segment, it still affected the sales distribution.

From $400k to $600k, there are 11 homes on the market. The absorption rate is around 11 months, and it is definately slowing.  Of course, there is a seasonal dip around the Holidays and the pick-up isn’t until March and April.

Above $600k, there are 6 listings, but too few sales to have any sort of reliable number of months of inventory.  There have been two sales in the last three months, but prior, there had only been one other sale in 2009 (February).  Two of the listings are above $800k, and there is no market activity in the last 12 months for that range…

From LaneBailey.com.  I have a page dedicated to Lilburn Market Data.

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This weekend is the Corona Rally Mexico.  If you aren’t familiar with World Rally Championship, and you are a car person, you are missing the boat.  It is an incredible form of motorsport…  Dirt, gravel, snow, asphalt.  The cars are blindingly quick, and rather than covering the same course over and over, many of the stages are only seen once in an event.

Pictured is one of the coolest ever cars.  I saw one in a Rally-Raid in Ecuador back in the 1970s.  I’ve loved them ever since…

I also enjoyed watching the WRC on Speed, but I haven’t been able to watch live or even delayed broadcasts for quite a while…  But, through the magic of the internet…

The latest videos can be found for free on YouTube… In the mean time (there aren’t any English language videos posted for Mexico yet.

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Image via Wikipedia

Late in 2008, Gwinnett County, GA, announced the implementation of a new Waste Management Plan.  I wrote about the announcement here…  You can check out the costs and so forth there…

Just a few weeks later, the plan was killed in court.  The trash haulers that weren’t selected successfully sued the county to stop the plan.  The plan was to take effect on January 2nd, 2009.

It’s Baaack…

On March 2nd, the Gwinnett County Board of Commissioners approved the plan.  It has been slightly modified, but is largely the same plan.  Instead of two haulers dividing up the county, now there are five haulers.  The plan is expected to start effective July 1st, 2010.

On the plus side, there should be curbside pick-up for more recyclable materials.  Costs are projected to be almost the same as they are for most private contracts.

Will it hold?  We’ll see…

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The real estate market for Gwinnett County is in a state of flux.  There are wide variations between different location throughout the county, as well as different price strata.  There are a few themes that are readily apparent, but some locations and price ranges are standouts (good or bad)…

Some quick county-wide numbers…

• January, 2010 sales were 352 homes.  This is down 11.1% from the 396 homes in January, 2009,  That was down 14.7% from the 464 homes in January,2008.  (There might still be some stragglers that haven’t been entered yet… but there shouldn’t be many.  These numbers are as of 2/23/10)
• New listings were 1526 homes for January, 2010.  This is down 21.9% (1953 new listings) from January, 2009.  That was down 17.3% (2363 new listings) from January 2008.
• Days on Market were down by 19 days to 87. This is good news, but I honestly don’t put much faith in the DoM number.

Overall Absorption Rates…

Take a look at this post for a quick explanation of Absorption Rates.  Listings increased for January, compared to December, 2009.  There were 5612 listings in January, 5219 listings in December.  The “Months of Inventory” numbers for the 12 month, 6 month and 3 month averages are 10.12, 8.80 and 8.68, respectively.

What this means is that sales seem to be slowing.  However, January is generally a tough month.  In December, contracts usually slow, although closings remain fairly high (November contracts).  So, January always looks a little weaker in the 6 month and 3 month averages.  But, January also showed more months of inventory in the 12 month average, compared to December (8.03 months of inventory).

It seems like I say it every month, but next month will be interesting…  One of the reasons we have to “kick the can down the road” is that we are only really able to look in a rear view mirror at sales data.  Imagine trying to drive around a track only looking out the back window.  Whenever there is a sharp turn, you won’t know until you are in the ditch…

Under $200,000…

This range continues to be the strongest, but it is weaker than it was last month.  However, the sales season doesn’t really pick up until March (February contracts).  There were 251 sales in this price range, with just under 3100 listings (3089).  In the last year, sales peaked at around 540 in both June and July, and then came back up to 532 for October.  They slid to 414 in December.  In January of 2009, there were 270 single family homes sold.

$200,000 to $400,000…

We certainly don’t have the strength here of the lower range, but it isn’t terrible.  Looking at the 3 month average, there is about 13 1/2 months of inventory.  There were 93 sales with 1861 listings.  Last year there were 103 sales in this price range.  The same pattern held for sales (strongest in July, then June and October).  As with the under $200k range, the tax credits seemed to push sales in the fall.  As with the under $200k, I expect that some sales were cannabalized from this spring by the first tax credit.

$400,000 to $600,000…

Here is where we see the car drive off the cliff.  The 3 month average points to having almost 29 months of inventory on the market.  There were only 4 sales in this range for January 2010 (20 sales in January 2009) and 359 homes on the market.  May and November were the strongest months for sales.  I think we are seeing nervousness about jobs and taxes here.  There are few first time home buyers that would meet the criteria for the tax credit here, and the $6500 credit wouldn’t figure prominently in the plans of buyers at this level.

$600,000 to $800,000…

Things are actually slightly better in this range than in the $400k-$600k range.  There is still 27 months of inventory, but there were 3 sales this year compared to just 1 for the same month last year.  There were 127 properties on the market.  In this range, just a few extra sales one way or the other can have a dramatic effect on the statistics.  I also don’t believe the tax credits have had much affect here.

$800,000 to $1,000,000…

The three month average points to just over 3 years of inventory at this price range.  With 51 homes on the market, there was only 1 sale in this range in January… none in January 2009.  In fact, there have only been around 25 sales in the last year, county-wide.  And, while 6-7 months of inventory is considered balanced in the lower price ranges, because of the smaller pool here, we usually see higher numbers… but 3 years is still obviously slow.

Over $1,000,000…

Nothing to see here…  There are 125 listings and there were no sales last month at this price.  There were 2 for the same month the previous year.  The three month average yield a little over 6 years of inventory.  There were only 42 sales in this range in the last 12 months.  And I don’t think I’ve seen the Absorption Rate go much below 4-5 years of inventory…

Hot and Not…

• Norcross is hot.  Just 5.1 months of inventory in the under $200k range…  And only 9 months of inventory in the $1M+ range!
• Duluth has just 6.3 months of inventory for the $400k-$600k range…
• Lilburn is lagging right now, with 10 months of inventory for the under $200k level… and while there have just 6 months of inventory for the $600k-$800k range, there have onyl been two sales in that range in the last 3 months (only 4 listings).
• Duluth isn’t doing so hot for the other price ranges.
• Lawrenceville, Buford and Lilburn are the big laggards in the $200k-$400k range at 17, 19 and 19 months of inventory, respectively.
• Overall, Buford is the weakest of the markets I track, at just under 13 months of inventory.

The markets I closely track are Buford, Duluth, Lawrenceville, Lilburn, Norcross, Sugar Hill and Suwanee.  for these areas, I am tracking them by mailing address, not city limits.  Buford, Duluth and Suwanee also include sales from counties other than Gwinnett.  I also track the overall numbers for Gwinnett County.

I am excited about the growth prospects for Gwinnett County, GA.  In the last few weeks we have had another announcement of a company moving their headquarters to Gwinnett.  We have a wonderful quality of life, and there are abundant recreation opportunities…  The Gwinnett Braves and Gladiators, Lake Lanier, one of the best parks departments in the country and proximity to all that metro Atlanta has to offer make this a GREAT place to live and work.  I’ve been proud to call Gwinnett County home for most of the last 21 years.

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