Interest rates are at historic lows… leading to incredible affordability.

Picture of the "Gingerbread House" in Essex, Connecticut, USA (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Entry level inventories are at historic lows… leading to some price strength at base price levels.

Still some weakness at some “move-up” price levels… leading to great deals on homes at those price levels.

For a while now, many of us in the real estate world have been saying two things.  First, until jobs come back and people feel secure, real estate would struggle.  Second, the market wouldn’t come back until “move-up” buyers were in a position to make a move.

I don’t know that the majority of consumers are “comfortable” with their job situation, but when they are, the deals will start to dry up.  Those that get off the fence early will have the best choice of bargains… and inventories are actually dropping.

Move-up buyers had been somewhat locked into their homes with crappy resale values.  They couldn’t afford to move out and be in a position to put anything down on another house.  But now that there is a bit of stability in in the entry level, more of those buyers ARE able to sell and move up the market.

If you want to see if you are in a position to trade up, give me a call.  Lane Bailey 678-200-5895.

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Market stats for Lawrenceville, GA, April, 2012, indicate that there were 1082 properties on the market. Overall, there was about a 4.5 month supply of properties. In 2011, sales for last April were at 239, so 256 sales was a solid increase, year over year (229). Coupled with the decrease in inventory, things are looking pretty good. Normally the market picks up from January through about June-August. This month we are rocking, better not than last month (275 sales).

For Lawrenceville, GA, Homes Under $200k, there are 910 listings, with about a 4.0 month supply of homes. Sales were well up from April, 2011 (237 v 209). This segment is easily the lion’s share of sales for the area. With the 4.03 month A/R, it is solidly in Seller’s Market territory. The low Absorption Rate (AR) is due to very strong sales, coupled with dramatically lower listing inventories. Month over month sales were down, though, from 260 in March.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 150 listings for sale, and about 10.0 months of supply. Oddly, this had one of the weaker segments in the county, now it’s mid-pack. The 18 sales for April, 2012 were down from the 20 from last year. They were up from the 14 sales last month. Sales should have been closer to 20 units for April. We are still solidly in Buyer’s Market territory here.

From $400k to $600k, there are 16 homes on the market. The absorption rate is around 12.0 months. However, with the level of sales in this segment, a couple of sales added or subtracted can have a HUGE impact. There were 1 sale for April, the Absorption Rate has dropped from 78 months last June, through good, but sporadic sales. There were 0 sales in April, 2011. This is acting like a luxury market and the A/R is jumping all over the place… with just a few sales (A/R was 7.1 5 months ago). While the long term trend was looking a little better, now it is still pretty choppy.

Between $800k and $1M, and Above $1M there are 3 homes listed (combined) and not enough sales data to give an accurate absorption rate. There has only been one sale in this range in the last 3 years (Aug, 2010), according to FMLS.

Lawrenceville is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta. As of the 2000 Census, there were 22,937 people in Lawrenceville, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County (2008 estimates from the Census Bureau peg population around 29,000). It was incorporated in 1821. Lawrenceville is home to Central Gwinnett High School, and also has students that the Mountain View and Archer clusters. It is also home to Gwinnett Technical College and Georgia Gwinnett College. Another recent addition to Lawrenceville is that it is home to the Gwinnett Braves, playing at the Gwinnett Stadium on GA20 between I-85 and GA316. Possibly the most famous resident of Lawrenceville was Oliver Hardy. As a small boy he lived in Lawrenceville with his parents for a short time. Lawrenceville was also home to Junior Samples. Some of its other residents included Jeff Francouer, Brian McCann and Jennifer Ferrin.

I have a page dedicated to Lawrenceville Market Data.

Related articles

• Gwinnett Market Impressions…(lanebailey.com)

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• Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, March 2012 (lanebailey.com)
• Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, February 2012 (lanebailey.com)
• Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, January 2012 (lanebailey.com)
• Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, December 2011 (lanebailey.com)
• Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, November 2011 (lanebailey.com)
• Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, October 2011 (lanebailey.com)
• Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, September 2011 (lanebailey.com)
• Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, August 2011 (lanebailey.com)
• Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, June 2011 (lanebailey.com)
• Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, May 2011 (lanebailey.com)
• Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, April 2011 (lanebailey.com)
• Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, March 2011 (lanebailey.com)
• I’m Always Up For a Good Surprise.. (lanebailey.com)
• Gwinnett County Public Schools Making Changes… (lanebailey.com)

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Market stats for Buford, GA, April, 2012 indicate that there were 399 properties on the market.  Overall, there was about an 5.1 month supply of properties (Absorption Rate or A/R).  There were 86 sales for April, flat from 86 last month and up from the 73 sales last April (2011).  It isn’t the strongest market in Gwinnett, but it is much better than it has been.

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 227 listings, with a 4.2 month supply.  This is the largest price segment in this market area, so strength here usually equals strength across the whole local market area.  Sales were flat from last month 61, but up compared to last year (51 sales in April, 2011).  But, the A/R is under the 6 months that would be considered fairly balanced… pointing towards a solid seller’s market.

Between $200k and $400k, there were 126 listings for sale, and about 6.2 months of supply.  The 19 sales recorded were flat from the 19 from last month and down a bit from the 22 sales last year for April.  This had been one of the weaker segments in the county, but has improved dramatically and at current A/Rs, it is one of the stronger $200k-$400k segments in the county, again, with increasing strength.

From $400k to $600k, there were 24 homes on the market.  The absorption rate is 8.0 Months.  There have been 9 sales in the last 3 months (0 for February, 3 for March and 6 for April).  When the market is rolling, there should be 6-8 sales a month during this part of the year.  September was pretty strong, and but we didn’t have the follow-up the next two months I was looking for… December was back in the right direction, and the drop in listings certainly helps.  January certainly wasn’t the month to call a recovery, nor February.  March showed a little promise.  April was nice.  Just for comparison, there was 1 sale in the Feb.-Apr. period in 2011.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 6 listings. Absorption Rate is 4.5 months… but it jumps around a lot.  Sales in this range are pretty sporadic, but steady when looking at the long-term. The drop in inventory over the last few months from 14 homes to 6 has made things look less slow… but there were 4 sales in this segment last year… and 3 sales in March.  This is a sign of strength, but the low inventory is what is driving the incredible A/R.

The range from $800k to $1m, there were 7 homes listed.  But, with no sales last year (2011), obviously trends are hardly definable. Listings are down, but sales aren’t following through.

Above $1m, there were 9 properties listed.  The last sale in the segment was in April… of 2009…and then there was May, 2011… and 2 sales in June, 2011.  So, we have 36 months of inventory.  I hope, but am not expecting, sales to be more consistent.

Buford, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett and Hall Counties. The population is 2000 was 10,668, but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it had seen tremendous growth since that census. Buford is home to Lake Lanier, one of Georgia’s premiere recreational areas, and Lake Lanier Islands. Recently, the City of Buford has revamped their old town. It is also home to Buford (Buford City Schools aren’t a part of Gwinnett County Schools), Mill Creek, Mountain View and Lanier High School (Lanier will open for the 2010-11 school year).

I have a page dedicated to Buford Market Data.

Related articles

• Buford, GA, Market Report, March 2012 (lanebailey.com)
• Buford, GA, Market Report, February 2012 (lanebailey.com)
• Buford, GA, Market Report, December 2011 (lanebailey.com)
• Buford, GA, Market Report, November 2011 (lanebailey.com)
• Buford, GA, Market Report, October 2011 (lanebailey.com)
• Buford, GA, Market Report, September 2011 (lanebailey.com)
• Buford, GA, Market Report, August 2011 (lanebailey.com)
• Buford, GA, Market Report, June 2011 (lanebailey.com)
• Buford, GA, Market Report, May 2011 (lanebailey.com)
• Buford, GA, Market Report, April 2011 (lanebailey.com)
• Buford, GA, Market Report, March 2011 (lanebailey.com)

English: Change of the Case-Shiller Home Price Index relative to its peak values in 1989 and 2006. Series starting in 1989 is in blue. Series starting in 2006 is in red. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

One of the comments I hear the most is “but the news said…”.  There are always stories on the news about the NAR (National Association of REALTORS®) market stats, Case-Shiller or others.  Most of the statistics are based on national numbers.  Case Shiller is a little more local, in that it is based on the local area… if you can call the Atlanta region “local”.

One thing I would note is that the Atlanta region DOES tend to track pretty close to national averages.  But being pretty close isn’t the same as being the same.  And even if it were, there is a huge difference between the Atlanta Metro area and Gwinnett County… much less Suwanee, or the Morningview subdivision.

And that is the problem…

We can’t listen to the news and have a clear picture of what it means for our house or our neighborhood.  It would be the same as looking at the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and deciding whether a specific stock was going to go up or down.

But that is exactly what people do… They see a report on the network news and then decide that houses are over-priced, under-priced or whatever.  When the real fact is that some market segments are rocking bargains right now… there is too much inventory and not enough buyers.  Other segments have scarce inventory and homes are selling as fast as they are listed (if they are priced appropriately).  But the national news… or even the local news… can’t be that exact in their reporting.

Unlike a lot of real estate professionals, I don’t begrudge the news for reporting the “big picture” story on the real estate market.  We DO need to know what is happening on a national basis.  But we also need to remember that there are vast differences between neighborhoods, price ranges, ZIP codes, school areas, etc.

The best bet is to talk with a local agent… I have monthly market reports on 7 cities in Gwinnett County, GA.  If this is your area, you can get a much better idea of what is going on around you.  If you really want to know what is happening, let me know and we’ll talk about YOUR house.

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• Prices Up? Prices Down? WTH??(lanebailey.com)

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Market stats for Sugar Hill, GA , April, 2012 indicates that there are 152 homes on the market.  Overall, there is about an 5.6 month supply.  There were 32 sales, compared to 23 last month and 20 last April.

For Sugar Hill homes priced under $200k, there are 110 listings, with about 4.9 months supply.  There were 25 sales this April, significantly better than last year for the same time (17).  There were 25 sales last month.  Inventories have been fluid, rising and falling.  Normally, this time of year we see inventories leveling out, but this month there was only a slight increase.  There should have had a major inventory bump over the last two months.

Sugar Hill Listings between $200k and $400k, there are 37 listings for sale, and about 12.3 months of supply.  Last April there was an 15.5 month supply.  There were 3 sales, this year there were 7.  Last month only had 1 sale.  It makes last month look more like a fluke.

For listings in the $400k to $600k range, there were 3 homes on the market.  The absorption rate was around 6 months, but with 3 sales in November (and those being the only sales since July), it is tough to calculate accurately.  Obviously, a sale or two could make a BIG difference.  I still hope to see some consistent activity in this segment.

In the $600k to $800k, $800k to $1m and Above $1m (combined), the sales are too inconsistent to have a solid read on, but there were only 2 homes listed for sale in that price range. No sales have been recorded in the last 2+ years.

Sugar Hill, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett County. The population is 2000 was 11,399, but that only included the area inside the city limits. The name comes from a bag of Sugar that spilled on a hill while in transit between Cumming and the railroad in Buford. And while it is actually a big market, it is in the shadows of Lawrenceville, Duluth and Suwanee… which all are nearby. That also makes it a great location, as it is close to everything that Gwinnett County, GA has to offer.

I have a page dedicated to Sugar Hill Market Data.

Related articles

• Sugar Hill, GA, Market Report, March 2012 (lanebailey.com)
• Sugar Hill, GA, Market Report, February 2012 (lanebailey.com)
• Sugar Hill, GA, Market Report, January 2012 (lanebailey.com)
• Sugar Hill, GA, Market Report, December 2011 (lanebailey.com)
• Sugar Hill, GA, Market Report, November 2011 (lanebailey.com)
• Sugar Hill, GA, Market Report, October 2011 (lanebailey.com)
• Sugar Hill, GA, Market Report, September 2011 (lanebailey.com)
• Sugar Hill, GA, Market Report, August 2011 (lanebailey.com)
• Sugar Hill, GA, Market Report, June 2011 (lanebailey.com)
• Sugar Hill, GA, Market Report, April 2011 (lanebailey.com)
• Sugar Hill, GA, Market Report, March 2011 (lanebailey.com)

Market stats for Lilburn, GA, April, 2012, indicate that there were 327properties on the market (as of April 30th). Overall, there was about an 6.2 month supply of properties and 65 properties that closed (sold) in April. It was a huge increase from last year’s sales (44) and an increase from March (51 sales). The Absorption Rate notched down a good bit. Lilburn had been among the weakest of Gwinnett County, GA, cities I track. But, at 6.17 months of inventory, it isn’t nearly as bad as it had been just a year ago (14.35 months of inventory in Feb, 2011, for example).

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 229 listings, with about an 5.4 month supply with 51 sales. This represents most of the sales in the market area. Sales increased solidly from last month (41), and were also up from last year (32). While the Absorption Rate isn’t as low as many other areas, sales are strong, and I’m still pulling for a comeback for Lilburn. The track is getting a little better.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 85 listings for sale, and about 8.5 months of supply. This segment had been quite weak for months, and had stalled a little, but came back with a vengeance. It is stalling a bit again. There were 14 sales compared to 11 last year. This segment really needs to get back into single digit A/Rs … but, Lilburn has never been seen as a luxury market. But the decrease in listings has really helped. I’m still not as confident about this portion of the Lilburn market coming back quite yet… It was strengthening, just not as consistently as I’d like.

From $400k to $600k, there are just 9 homes on the market. The absorption rate is 27 months (one year average). There was 1 sales in March. It was the first sale in the segment since last July. Poised for a comeback, but the increase in listings and weak sales don’t give the right ingredients for that to happen.

From $600k to $800k, $800k to $1M and Above $1M, there are 4 listings (combined), but too few sales to have any sort of reliable number of months of inventory. March posted the first sale since August, 2010. It was in the $600-$800k range. One of the listings is above $1M and one between $800k and $1M, and there is no market activity in the last 12 months for those ranges…

Lilburn is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta. As of the 2000 Census, there were 11,307 people in Lilburn, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County. It was incorporated in 1910. Lilburn is home to Parkview High School, and also has students that the Brookwood, Berkmar and Meadowcreek clusters. It is also home to Killian Hill Christian School, Providence Chrisian Academy, St. John Neumann Catholic School and Parkview Christian School. Possibly the most famous resident of Lilburn is General Beauregard Lee, a groundhog with a better winter prediction record that Puxatawnee Phil up in PA. Dominique Wilkins, formerly of the Atlanta Hawks also lives in Lilburn.

I have a page dedicated to Lilburn Market Data.

Related articles

• Lilburn, GA Market Report, March 2012 (lanebailey.com)
• Lilburn, GA Market Report, February 2012 (lanebailey.com)
• Lilburn, GA Market Report, January 2012 (lanebailey.com)
• Lilburn, GA Market Report, December 2011 (lanebailey.com)
• Lilburn, GA Market Report, November 2011 (lanebailey.com)
• Lilburn, GA Market Report, October 2011 (lanebailey.com)
• Lilburn, GA Market Report, September 2011 (lanebailey.com)
• Lilburn, GA Market Report, August 2011 (lanebailey.com)
• Lilburn, GA Market Report, June 2011 (lanebailey.com)
• Lilburn, GA Market Report, May 2011 (lanebailey.com)
• Lilburn, GA Market Report, April 2011 (lanebailey.com)
• Lilburn, GA Market Report, March 2011 (lanebailey.com)
• Wayback Wednesday… The Lilburn CID (lanebailey.com)
• Terra Sol by Pulte near Lilburn (lanebailey.com)
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Buyers and sellers in the Plazuela de los Sapos, Puebla, Mexico (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

It might be one of the most asked questions I get from both Buyers and Sellers…

Is this the “best” deal?

The problem is that there is almost never an answer.  It isn’t as simple as a mathematical equation… unless there are variables to include for things like emotion, comfort and other intangibles.  The other problem is that just trying to figure out if THIS is the best deal can change the answer to the equation.

People have a tendency to “dig in” when they are pressed.  Buyers or Sellers hit a limit to what they want to do, and often they hit that limit harder when  the other party is trying to test the limits.

We’ve all heard the story of the boiling frog…  If you put him in a pot of boiling water, he jumps out, but if you put him in comfortable water and slowly heat it, he will sit there and boil.

boiling water עברית: מים רותים (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

It works the same with buyers and sellers.  If a Buyer sends an offer with a very low price (we’ll leave aside value v pricehere…) to start negotiations, the Seller often digs in and won’t accept an offer that they might have accepted had negotiations started from a more acceptable point.  Conversely, if a Seller starts with a list price that is too high, the Buyers may just not submit an offer… or they might pick the property apart and submit a lower offer than they might have otherwise.

Of course the thing to remember is that it certainly ISN’T the best deal if it never happens…

Related articles

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Market stats for Suwanee, GA, April, 2012 indicate that there were 426 properties on the market (up from 420 last month). Overall, there was about a 5.4 month supply of properties (down from 6.2 last month). April had 75 sales. Compared to April, 2011 (75), this year was flat. Inventory was down compared to 2011 (624). There were 100 sales last month.  Although sales were flat, the decreasing inventory has made this year look a lot better.

In the Under $200k arena, there were 117 listings in Suwanee, GA, with about a 3.5 month supply (178 and 6.9, respectively last year). This April’s sales were WAY down, at 28 (37 last year, 42 last month). This was definitely the strongest price segment in Suwanee. And one of the strongest in the whole county. The next level up is coming up fast.  There are a few other segments in the county getting close, though.

Between $200k and $400k, there were 200 listings for sale (295 last year, 195 last month), and 5.8 months of supply. Sales in April, 2012 were 35 (42 in March), compared with 28 for the same period in 2011. Sales have been bouncing between very strong and average for the last few months. I’d like to see some consistency around 40-50 sales for the next couple of months. This shouldn’t be a “peaky” market/price segment. Unlike most of the county, this is the largest price segment in the area, and its direction plays a major part in how the area looks.

From $400k to $600k, there were 57 homes on the market. The absorption rate was at 7.1 months (9.3 in March). There were 10 sales in April (10 in March)… up from 3 last April. Looking at the three month average, there were 24 sales this year and 12 for the same period last year. This segment had gotten dramatically stronger in the last couple of months, but stayed sort of weak this month.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there are 22 listings, with about a 11 month supply. Sales at this level are not consistent, but there were 0 this month (3 last month). Looking at one month makes the numbers jump around. For the last three months, sales were 6… For the same time last year, the sales were 3. With the huge decrease in listings over the last couple of months, I was looking for this to become one of the strongest $600k-$800k area in the county. But until I see 3-5 sales a month on average, I can’t call this one strong.

The range from $800k to $1m, there are 4 homes listed and 12 months of inventory on the market. There were only 4 sales at this price level last year (1 in April, 2 in July and 1 in August) . This is a tough segment to try to sell in right now, but if inventory stays low, it won’t be quite as rough. But there still needs to be some more sales activity.

In Suwanee, GA, Above $1m, there are 26 properties listed. The current absorption rate indicated about 19.5 months of inventory, but because of the smaller numbers of sales, this could be significantly impacted by just a couple of sales (2 for March and 2 for April). In this segment, we should be seeing reduced inventories… There were 22 homes listed in this segment at this time last year.

Suwanee, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett, Forsyth and (just a little bit) in Fulton Counties. The population is 2000 was 8,725, but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it had seen tremendous growth since that census. Money Magazine rated Suwanee in the “Top 10 Best Places to Live” in 2007, and it is one of the wealthiest parts of Georgia. Recently, the City of Suwanee has revamped their old town, adding a large park with a bandshell, condos, town homes and small businesses. It is also home to North Gwinnett High School, Peachtree Ridge and Collins Hill. I have a page dedicated to Suwanee Market Data.

Related articles

• Suwanee, GA, Market Report, March 2012 (lanebailey.com)
• Suwanee, GA, Market Report, February 2012 (lanebailey.com)
• Suwanee, GA, Market Report, January 2012 (lanebailey.com)
• Suwanee, GA, Market Report, December 2011 (lanebailey.com)
• Suwanee, GA, Market Report, November 2011 (lanebailey.com)
• Suwanee, GA, Market Report, October 2011 (lanebailey.com)
• Suwanee, GA, Market Report, September 2011 (lanebailey.com)
• Suwanee, GA, Market Report, August 2011 (lanebailey.com)
• Suwanee, GA, Market Report, June 2011 (lanebailey.com)
• Suwanee, GA, Market Report, May 2011 (lanebailey.com)
• Suwanee, GA, Market Report, April 2011 (lanebailey.com)
• Suwanee, GA, Market Report, March 2011 (lanebailey.com)

Last week I was a guest on Atlanta Real Estate Forum Radio.  We actually recorded the podcast a few weeks ago… it was a lot of fun.  In my segment we talked about what guys really want in a garage.  Take a listen… let me know what you think.  I’d love to get your feedback.

House and garage Between Sarclet and Thrumster. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

You can check out the original post on AREF’s website here.

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• USA Today thinks prices are heading up…(lanebailey.com)

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• Listing Inventory is Starting to Rise…(lanebailey.com)

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• Prices Up? Prices Down? WTH??(lanebailey.com)

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And they very may.

map for us unemployment numbers (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

According to the article I ran across this morning, house prices should go up about 4% each year for the next year.  I can see that… especially on the entry level of the market.  On the upper end of the market, though, it isn’t looking like we’ll see recovery for a little while. Between taxes and other policies that aren’t that friendly towards small business, there isn’t a lot of short term optimism with many of the folks that buy more luxurious homes.

So… my take is this.  I see the lower end of the market performing well over the next few years.  The higher end of the market more tricky.  The middle of the market, as well.

On the entry level, investors are scooping up properties.  Prices have stabilized and we will likely see increases regardless of the political or business climate, unless there is a MAJOR reversal.  Many of the investors are buying and holding properties as rentals, and there are simply a lot of people out there that have good income but cannot buy because of foreclosures and short sales.  That will drive the entry level pricing picture.

selfmade image of U.S. Unemployment rate from 1890-2009 (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

At the middle of the market, there are a few competing stories.  Many of the move-up buyers are stuck in their current homes or have been through foreclosures and short sales.  But, there are some that will look at snapping up a deal when they feel comfortable about their employment prospects.  Right now, that simply isn’t the case.  We all hear that the Unemployment Rate is dropping, but what we are NOT seeing is the Employment Rate moving up.  The drop in “unemployment” is mostly tied to people giving up looking for work.  In fact, the Workforce Participation Rate is at a low point.  So, if people in the middle start to feel that the economy is stable, they will buy homes.

On the upper reaches of the market, there are a few different stories as well.  Foreclosures and Short Sales are a factor, but not as often as on the lower segments.  But, comfort is a major factor.  Most of these folks are business owners or senior employees.  Taxes and regulations are playing a major role in their decisions.  Talk from Washington of major tax increases and more difficult regulation are making them hold off… even when they see a bargain.  A more business friendly tone in DC could turn the tide for these buyers.

The big question… Where do YOU think the market is going, and why?

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