gassedout... bleah.

Update on Ivy Portfolio

2011-11-05T09:27:00.000+08:00

Yeah, it was an OK decision not to get back into VNQ on 1st November, eventhough it signalled a monthly close above the 10month moving average. 10MMA Graphs Reasons for my hesitancy to re-enter a long position in VNQ were: 1. Everything else except for bonds still below the 10MMA 2. Markets in turmoil. Despite the strong rally, my fundamental view is that Europe is going to cause more pain. (So

Ivy still in cash mostly, new toys to play with?

2011-10-25T18:26:00.000+08:00

As of now, only bonds are above the 10 month moving average or 200 day simple moving average. Nothing much to do here. Playing with a few new forex toys... a simple swing indicator that seems to work quite well on hourly charts is one of them. Entries are frequent on multiple pairs, stop loss levels are ok at about 50 pips or so usually, and I can take off 80% when it hits the equivalent of the

Longer Term Portfolio Rules Adjustment

2011-10-02T14:07:00.000+08:00

I must say that it is so absolutely typical that 3 months after I start a longer term investment portfolio using rules adapted from the Ivy Portfolio, the markets decide to go into turmoil. Just as well that there have been clear signals to exit long term positions in equities (both US and non-US) and REITs. Commodities have just signalled an exit as well, closing well below the 10month SMA for

A new beginning?

2011-07-12T23:29:00.000+08:00

The journey is long and I am probably not even half way there yet. It's been years since I started trying to learn to trade. Subscribing to The Kirk Report has been one milestone this year. I've stopped trading actively and decimating my account and learnt something new... that is nothing new! Portfolio management using an asset allocation strategy combined with market timing derived from the

His mighty power!

2011-04-04T08:01:00.000+08:00

"I keep asking that the God of our Lord Jesus Christ, the glorious Father, may give you the Spirit of wisdom and revelation, so that you may know him better. I pray also that the eyes of your heart may be enlightened in order that you may know...his incomparably great power for us who believe. That power is like the working of his mighty strength, which he exerted in Christ when he raised him

Read that last blog

2011-02-24T07:28:00.000+08:00

After the turmoil in the Middle East over the weekend and over the period where I have been hopelessly long, it's again another reminder that profits not banked are not profits. When the markets opened on Tuesday after the long weekend, there was plenty of red. Notably AAPL traded down severely and this caused the biggest hit to my short term trading account as I had short put spreads that are

Don't let the euphoria set in

2011-02-18T07:55:00.000+08:00

Sure, the market has gone up, YET AGAIN! Sure, the portfolio is doing well. Well, well, this is just the beginning, OK? Keep the risk in check, take profits when indicated, and don't get euphoric to the point that you count the profits before they are banked in cash. The recent plays I have entered are all doing well. I am long in ERTS, DTV, XLE and XLU with calls, and in puts in UUP. As long as

Start to a great day

2011-02-17T10:42:00.001+08:00

Another up day in the markets. It's a great day, though, not because of that but cos I got in my 5km run this morning. I took too long entries (DTV, ERTS) on long squeeze signals over the past two days. ERTS made a huge move up during the night, unfortunately I wasn't there to take partial profits. Eventhough it sold back down later in the trading period, I'm in the black and holding these both.

Still no sign of that trading plan

2011-02-15T08:43:00.000+08:00

I still haven't really worked on that plan. That's bad. I have though, gained something from subscribing to The Kirk Report. First is, it's made me update this blog, which doubles as the only journal I keep now, albeit not as regularly as I would like. Next up, its opened my eyes to the lazy portfolios. Finally, I've made a switch in my accounts: From now on I'll operate my lazy portfolio in the

Lazy Portfolio

2011-02-11T00:01:00.001+08:00

Heck, nothing ventured nothing gained. Had a nice dinner with lots of beef.. wagyu and the like, at Kee Han's place. Not to mention nice wines... some Trouillard champagne, Royal Viking, Fox Creek, etc. I've been toying with starting this lazy portfolio. And I shall do it tonight. I have opened positions in equal weightage in the following: BND Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund DBC Power

Post CNY blues

2011-02-08T08:08:00.000+08:00

Well, I've been laying low again. It's been a week of non-activity trading wise. Chinese New Year is into its 6th day, and I'm still recovering from a hangover from that horrible beginning to 2011 where everything I touched went the other way or went nowhere. I am now reading with real intent, more into Kirk's site as well as the Dick Davis Dividend. Certainly the lure of managing a lazy

Emotions and trading

2011-01-29T16:34:00.003+08:00

It's funny how my emotions tend to swing with the status of my portfolio. When I'm doing well, I am happier and less preoccupied with the markets. When I suffer draw-downs, I tend to get a bit quite and I am constantly thinking about what I can do to improve my performance. Many trading books state that to be a successful trader, one has to separate from this state of constantly feeling elated

Back to the drawing board

2011-01-28T11:52:00.000+08:00

I wonder how many traders there are out there who are like me right now, wondering what to do next. Well, when unsure, the answer is probably to stop trading, especially to stop doing what has not been working, and to take the opportunity to rework and rewrite my trading plan. It's often said that a trader can't make it in the markets till he or she knows himself. I'll definitely have to start

Who wants to learn to trade?

2011-01-27T10:50:00.000+08:00

Taking a step back involves some in-depth soul searching. Now, why do I want to learn to trade? At times I'm not sure myself. Sure, the potential profits are a draw. Ego is involved too... it's nice to be able to tell others how well you are doing and how clever you are. But ultimately, are these good reasons? No, of course not. There has to be more to it. It's a tough game and it's a huge

Man, time for a big step back

2011-01-26T21:29:00.000+08:00

Take a deep breath. I've been overtrading and losing unnecessary capital doing it. It's time to regroup, stop doing what isn't working and rethink my strategy. Work has been tough and really getting in the way of trading! :P But what the heck, if I don't keep trying, I'll never really know if I can make it or not. Had a nice chat with my buddy and trader, Alex. I agree that it's tough to

Bummer of a week

2011-01-23T22:53:00.000+08:00

Just a quick one. It's Sunday nite, 11pm and I'm tired. My accounts (options and futures) dipped almost 3% combined, over the past week due to full positions taking a hit (XLF, BRK/B, XLU, MOS) and existing profitable positions (HS, HUM) giving back a substantial portion. Well, again, it was always going to be a volatile, shortened 4 day trading week. It's still early in the year and I did limit

More volatility induced pain - that's ok, don't let it become chaos!

2011-01-21T10:25:00.001+08:00

Kirk was absolutely right in saying that these options expiration weeks can be volatile. I've been whipped both the the long and short side with the moves. Yesterday was quite a convincing down day, or so I thought. Initial strength petered out (during which I'd bought some XLU calls -(8.15%) on a breakout, taking a loss later when the breakout failed miserably intraday) and there was intense

Tim Knight says "Finally..."

2011-01-20T07:25:00.001+08:00

The perma-bear has his day. Stopped out on XLF (duh -2.2% on stock), HS (+0.37%) and MOS (-28.7%). Bummer. Talk about picking a top. BRK/B is still hanging in there, so is HUM. Overall, the market indices have not confirmed that the uptrend has ended, but this is certainly a warning. The SPY made a big red down day. I'll be looking to close off the rest of positions if this continues to violate

Hanging in there

2011-01-19T22:05:00.001+08:00

It's been a few days since my last post. What's been happening? I've been tired out from work. Yesterday, my two remaining plays gapped down on the open, HUM more than HS. I closed out 1/3 of my HS position as it was close to my first target. HUM was being threatened but I held on to it. These are what I added: My old friend BRK/B on a single print buying tail extension upwards. Blue - entry,

Jesse's Café Américain: Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts

2011-01-15T12:52:00.000+08:00

Jesse's Café Américain: Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts: "There was a concerted effort to drive down the price of gold and silver this week, much moreso than any usual price correction or pullback...."Wow did I get hit on my DGP position. And without this big downdraft I wouldn't have been able to make it back shorting the gold futures. I guess I shouldn't be doing what I don't really

Goldscrewed

2011-01-15T00:09:00.001+08:00

I screwed up again. Let's do a post-mortem on the Gold trade: 1. Poor entry - entered long at perceived support, but didn't wait for support to test. At a fat VA, on a retrace, price should hang there long enough for you to see that you have PLENTY of time to enter at a decent price. IN other words if it goes down there to support and doesn't hold for long and just pushes through to the downside

Goldbug

2011-01-14T09:25:00.000+08:00

Proverbs 10:17 He who keeps instruction is in the way of life, But he who refuses correction goes astray. A blog I was working on last night got wiped out when my chrome browser crashed. That was not an auspicious sign as my two new trades promptly ended the day looking less than the healthy pink I'd like them to be. Re-entered a position in DGP, long on stock. It looked like a nice support at

I've been a slacking...

2011-01-13T08:19:00.001+08:00

Ok well, after those bungled emini trades, and the missed profits on the aussie, I did put on new trades two days ago but didn't record the entries here. (My excuse for not putting up my own charts is that I'm sitting at the "office" waiting for work to start.) The themes for these are similar: 1. DBA long with calls on a breakout above the value area at 32.Doing nicely now after yesterday's gap

To say, "I am pissed off!" is an understatement.

2011-01-11T17:08:00.000+08:00

As a follow up to yesterday's post on the AU,here it is today, a full 60 pips below where I entered and exited at even (for the wrong reasons). Although I would probably have tightened my stops and would have been stopped out had I left the trade on, it was nevertheless a nice technical picture. One reason I got out early was the AU had already moved it's normal daily range. The

that trade really gassed out...

2011-01-10T23:59:00.000+08:00

OK well, the AU gave me about 30 pips then retraced and just hung there, and I didn't feel good about it cos I was getting all confused with my futures trading. So I closed it and watched my futures account take a hit. This time there was no getting out of the hole I'd dug for myself. Note to self: Time to close that futures account again, cos I should stop doing things that have been proven to