Geopolemics Home Page

Afghanistan

Wed, 25 Jun 2008 14:27:25 +0100

Karzai gets through Paris
The Paris conference of donor countries took place in June. President Karzai had asked US$50 billion over 5 years to re-launch the rebuilding of the country and to boost his re-election campaign. On the whole, the government seemed to be pleased with the outcome of Paris. Even if for the first time donors openly complained about the corruption and inefficiency of the Afghan state and made demands that these issues be addressed, but once again failed to impose strict terms and conditions. The conference ended up quite with a more modest promise of an additional US$21 billion in aid, but there is still money left unspent from previous years and the government hopes to raise a few billion of its own. The current estimate is that revenue collection stands at 7% of GDP and has stopped growing. The general economic conditions seem bound to complicate Kabul's task. Inflation is estimated to be close to 20% this year, a marked increase over the previous year, even if the IMF forecasts that the rate will halve next year as food prices recede. The pumping of external money will keep GDP growth at relatively high levels (over 8% both this year and next according to the IMF), but with little impact outside the capital and a few other cities.

China to the rescue
Afghanistan's best hope for increasing government revenue and investment levels seem to lay with China. The bidding for the Aynak copper mine signalled last

Albania

Fri, 27 Jun 2008 12:36:11 +0100
A tense moment
Albanians are particularly concerned at the moment with Serbia and Macedonia, the first of which has not got secure government after inconclusive elections and the second of which is facing them. It is vital that the moderate, liberal Serbs prevail and constitute the government. Such seems to be happening. They have to maintain the fiction that Kosovo is part of Serbia for evermore; but they know that this is nonsense.

The Macedonians have an even larger proportion of Albanians in their midst, many restless and keen to join up with the Kosovar Albabians into a greater Albania. But the Albanian Albanians want none of this. They do not want the financial responsibility for a start of looking after their impoverished brethren elsewhere.

The war over Kosovo in 1999 has been a real creation of a new Albania, resurrected from dire decades of a wretched communist dictatorship and a hangover from it through the 1990s, when 'shock therapy' proved shocking, but hardly therapeutic. The international organisations that came to town then brought new skills and plenty of aid money, which triggered a boom bringing GDP growth of 7% per annum subsequently. Albania is no longer the poorest country in Europe.

Into the EU
It is naturally hoping to complement this performance by joining the EU.

Much will depend here on how fare the Croats and Serbs in Brussels. Success for them will more

Armenia

Mon, 31 Mar 2008 12:13:06 +0100
PM wins presidency
There is much controversy about the presidential election Armenia held on February 19. It has become a highly contentious affair. There have been street protests in Yerevan, where opposition forces are concentrated.

Few believe in the total probity of the Armenian electoral system. There was something a little too neat about the result. The establishment figure, Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisian, a key ally of President Robert Kocharian, gained 53% of the vote, while his key challenger, former president Levon Ter-Petrosian, got a mere 21%. Yet the latter has the backing of 20 opposition parties. In the days up to the poll his rallies in Yerevan attracted as many, if not more, supporters than those for Sarkisian. It is not surpring if this has aroused suspicions.

How convenient for the PM to get just over the bar of 50%, obviating the need for a second round, with all the storm und drang that would have entailed. In the old days authoritarian regimes exposing themselves to popular election obtained 90% or more. Nowadays 50% will do. A more sophisticated way of doing things.

There are serious reasons to believe that a miscarriage of justice has taken place. The crowds that assembled in the central square of Yerevan for the opposition were in the region of 50,000, just as big, if not rather more so, than those for the PM. This does not square with a 53-21 result.

The OSCE acquie

Azerbaijan

Mon, 30 Jun 2008 11:08:25 +0100
The Prince Hal of Azerbaijan
Somebody once said that everything was foreseen by Shakespeare, an exaggeration of course, which the Bard would be the first to admit were he alive today. He would be astonished by nuclear power, for instance, and much else. But not by events in the Caucasus, which persist in having a Shakesperian ring to them.

Constant internecine strife, with sibling striking down sibling and mayhem galore, characterised the English Middle Ages, culminating in the War of the Roses. Something similar has occurred in the Caucasus, albeit with Tolystoyan innuendos at that.

War and Peace are the dread themes. But the main figure is a new Prince Hal. Born in late 1961, the Azeri president, Ilham Aliyev, is a transfiguration of the son and heir of Henry 4th of England, whose seizure of the crown paved the way for much that was to follow, the War of the Roses not least. He is a playboy by nature, thrust into prominence by primogeniture.

He would much prefer to be swilling down the latest vintage in the company of an Azeri Falstaff (if such is conceivable), and a bold filly or two, than be settling down to grave matters of state. But grievious public problems are impending.

He is now a sober statesman. But what next?

Prince Hal became memorable as Henry 5th by war, a great hero, after the battle of Agincourt in 1415. Aliyev junior is certainly tempted by the same route. Another

Bangladesh

Mon, 30 Jun 2008 11:44:27 +0100
BANGLADESH ESTABLISHES TRUTH COMMISSION
The Bangladesh government has approved the establishment of a truth commission that will help offer plea bargains to suspects arrested under its massive anti-corruption drive. The plea bargain will allow suspects to avoid jail term if they return their "ill-gotten" wealth to the state. The newly established organization is called The Truth and Accountability Commission (TAC). The Bangladesh cabinet approved this proposal at a meeting chaired by chief adviser Fakhruddin Ahmed, who heads the military-backed interim government. Persons accepting the Commission's offer will be barred from contesting national or local elections for five years and from holding any public office and executive positions in any collective bargaining agents, associations or banks or financial institutions. The spokesman said the government will appoint the commission as soon as President Iajuddin Ahmed promulgates an ordinance allowing the formation of the body. The commission would continue for five months but the proceedings it would draw during its tenure would continue until disposal of the cases, officials said. Over 170 prominent businessmen and political leaders, including two former Chief Ministers Shiekh Hasina and Khaleda Zia were arrested by the government formed after the President imposed emergency in January last year and scrapped general elections following prolonged political turmoil. The chief adviser, however, had recently said

Belarus

Fri, 21 Dec 2007 13:48:20 +0000
An axis of the future?
Belarus might seem to be the ultimate backwater. An unkind critic could say: "It is downwind of two unpleasant realities, the Chernobyl disaster and Russia; a radioactive marsh in the wrong part of the world."

This is not the view of Hugo Chavez, President of Venezuela, downwind of the US. He knows that the disaster at Chernobyl in March 1986 was tragic, certainly, but failed to have the fall-out expected. The winds blew most of it away.

He is convinced that Belarus is an important geopolitical player. It is astride energy routes from Russia to Europe, likely to be of growing importance in the years to come. It has a special relationship to Moscow in more ways than one.

The Russians always knew and still know that the Belarussians are their only true friends in the FSU, White Russians as one. They have consequently confided in them military secrets that they would never divulge elsewhere.

Belarus is the site of immensely sophisticated former Soviet defence capabilties, namely air-defence systems. It is the repository of top-secret secrets, whose value is literally incalculable.

Chavez knows this full well. He spotted an opportunity, the fact that the Belarussians and the Russians have rather fallen out. It is over the price of energy, that is of oil and gas. He could do what might be a brilliant deal he appears to have done it.

The new Castro<

Bosnia Herzegovina

Fri, 27 Jun 2008 11:24:03 +0100
An important symbolic step
Bosnia-Herzegovina took its first step on the ladder to European Union membership on June 16 when it signed a pre-accession agreement almost 13 years after the end of its bloody civil war. The accord, signed at an EU foreign ministers' meeting, was made possible in April when Bosnia's parliament adopted reforms intended to achieve closer integration of the country's separate Muslim-Croat and Serb police forces.

Other than Kosovo, which declared its independence from Serbia in February, Bosnia was the only part of former Yugoslavia that had not yet signed a Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA) with the EU. However, when the 27-nation bloc signed the accord with Serbia on April 29, it attached the proviso that ratification by all EU governments would depend on full Serbian co-operation with the United Nations war crimes tribunal in The Netherlands.

EU ministers, meeting in Luxembourg, welcomed the agreement with Bosnia as "an important step on the country's path towards the EU". Some Balkan experts described it as the most significant breakthrough for Bosnia since the Dayton, Ohio peace deal of 1995.

However, even European officials acknowledge that full EU membership for Bosnia is a distant prospect. The EU is in the meantime conducting talks on visa liberalisation for Bosnian citizens, but progress will depend on Bosnia's ability to introduce biometric passports and meet other EU

SCRUTINISING G8 and UNSC

Mon, 16 Jun 2008 09:57:44 +0100

History dictates
It goes without saying that the membership of an international organization charged with upholding peace and security (the UN Security Council) should fairly reflect the nations on whose behalf it purports to act. Likewise we should expect that a forum for the world's major industrialized democracies (the G8) should be so constituted that these democracies are fully represented. Otherwise the legitimacy of such organizations will always be called into question. Despite this, the claim is often made that both organisations fail to meet these criteria. To consider whether such an allegation is valid, we will examine the purposes for which these organizations came into existence, and then consider whether their present membership allows such purposes to be achieved.

Historically, the United Nations owes its existence to the alliance between the United States, Great Britain and the Soviet Union (now Russia) during World War Two. The allies called for the establishment of a world body that would settle international conflicts and prevent war. In 1945, 50 nations gathered in San Francisco and approved the Charter of the United Nations. The Charter embodied the deepest hopes of all mankind for a lasting peace. In addition to the General Assembly, the Security Council was established as a smaller exec

Bulgaria

Tue, 01 Jul 2008 11:21:46 +0100
Crisis loomimg in Sofia, highly critical EU report
The big event this summer was the publication of a highly critical European Commission report on Bulgaria on June 23 that puts the survival of the government of Premier Sergei Stanishev gravely in doubt.

On June 16 President Gyorgyi Purvanov made very harsh criticisms of his own premier, the more striking because he put him in power four years age. He anticipated a very negative report and chastised Stanishev for appointing political cronies to top state industry jobs.

The hinterland between industry and the state is indubitably very murky in Bulgaria, as in many countries. It is jobs for the boys, bribes galore to keep state officials happy notably tax collectors to look the other way, who belong to a very lucrative profession there.

Naturally, the general population, who are finding it hard to make ends meet, are sullenly resentful of the situation. Mayor Borissov of Sofia, the head of the opposition Bulgaria for Europe Party, is likely to make great political capital out of it and push for early elections, due by 2009 anyway.

BSP for the birds
The irony is that the party in power is the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP), which is supposedly for the people. It was founded in 1891, then became the Communist Party that ruled until 1989, then reverted to being the BSP in 1990, entering coalition governments in the 1990s.

Croatia

Fri, 27 Jun 2008 11:30:28 +0100
The Illyrian-come-Croatian predicament
The Croats have always been very historically-minded. They were centrally important in Roman times, being the natural bridge between the Western and Eastern Roman Empires. It was logical that the later emperors who counted should have come from Croatia (actually Illyria in those days), notably Diocletian and the most significant of them all, Constantine, who converted the empire to Christianity and shifted its capital to Constantinople.

In more recent times Croatia's most famous son was Tito (actually with a Slovene mother), the leader of the Partisans in the Second World War and the founder of Communist Yugoslavia. He took Yugoslavia out of the communist bloc in 1948 in defiance of Stalin, an act that prefigured the collapse of communism just over forty years later, the last thing that he would have suspected. But not perhaps Sir Fitzroy Maclean, the British mediator between Churchill and Tito, who commended him to the Albion war leader as a man of his own kidney.

Initially acts of great brutality were perpetrated; opponents of the regime, adherents of the Ustase, or the quasi-monarchist, but, alas, fascistoid, enemies of the Partisans (returned by the British in 1945 much to the astonishment of their new captors) were simply shot out of hand. Yet thereafter he sort of improved - for a Marxist that is.

Tito presided for decades over a vibrant market economy, being the one c

IRAN: NOW THE WORLD'S NUMBER ONE PROBLEM

Tue, 14 Aug 2007 20:13:40 +0100

With discernible progress on the North Korean front and a real prospect of the de-escalation that the world seeks from Pyongyang, IRAN swims into focus as the principal global unfinished business. IRAN's position was always more complex than North Korea's, some details of which it may be worth re-considering. It is a theocracy, so ultimately beyond rationality, which would be problem enough! It is also on these grounds able to summon up from its fanatical supporters, a level of sacrifice at the service of the state, as was exemplified by the human-bomb and human mine-sweeper volunteers, during the war against IRAQ. In addition, its theocracy is that of an heretical branch of Islam (ie not of the Sunni majority), and therefore the focus for hatred of equally fanatical Moslems of another sectarian stripe. It is big - with a 70 million population. Not an Arab state, but with many such as its neighbours, all apart from IRAQ having much smaller populations. There are age-old suspicions between them. IRAN sponsors its often violent co-religionists in non-Shia states - IRAQ and the Lebanon are prime examples. Saudi and the Gulf States fear Iranian influence on their own Shi'ite minorities. IRAN also neighbours war-torn AFGHANISTAN and nuclear- armed PAKISTAN, as well as NATO member TURKEY, an ancient adversary for regional dominance in western Asia, but now no longer.
The international dispute coalesces around IRAN's drive to create a n

Czech Republic

Fri, 30 Nov 2007 12:29:05 +0000
German-Russian energy moves alarm the Czech PM
The Czech Republic is concerned by close energy ties between Germany and Russia because they may threaten Czech energy security, PM Topolanek said on November 20. Topolanek, a right-wing prime minister who took office last year, said the country was developing diplomatic activity and practical plans to diversify oil and gas supplies. "We have big concerns, and I talk about it very openly so I can say it here, from the kind of new big friendship between Berlin and Moscow," he told a business conference.

The Czech Republic takes about 80 percent of its gas and most of its crude oil from Russia, and Topolanek's centre-right cabinet has made energy security one of its priorities.
Relations between the pro-U.S. government and Russia have been strained since the Czechs began to contemplate a US request to build part of a U.S. missile defence shield in the country, earlier this year. The Czech Republic is hostile to the whole idea, which it sees as directed against the Russians, not rogue regimes the other side of Eurasia. Geography would appear to bear them out.

But Toplanek and President Vaclav Klaus are out-and-out Atlanticists and both markedly reserved about Russia, whom they well remember as oppressors of their country before 1989.

Russia and Germany are planning a 1,200 km (745.6 miles) pipeline under the Baltic Sea, called Nord Stream, that will take 55 bill

Estonia

Fri, 30 Nov 2007 13:14:51 +0000
There is no doubt that there is a Nordic communality of nations. They have a common past and they hope a common future. There is a common constant - fear of Russia.

Nordic and Baltic prime ministers meet in Oslo
The Estonian Prime Minister feels that everyone should be concerned about developments in Russia. "Naturally I am worried about the way things are developing in Russia. Only three years ago the state accounted for 50 per cent of the Russian national economy: now it is 70 per cent." Andrus Ansip said in the Norwegian capital Oslo, where the prime ministers of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania met on November 12, along with their colleagues from the five Nordic countries.

The leaders of the Baltic countries were nevertheless cautious in their statements on how the possible accession of President Putin to the post of Prime Minister after his presidency runs out might affect the situation in the Baltic States. "Let's see what happens in March. Today we can only speculate, and that is not the job of a prime minister", said Lithuania's Prime Minister Gediminas Kirkilas. Latvia's leader was also cautious. "Nobody can predict what will happen in the elections for the Duma and the Presidency. We are open to cooperation", said Prime Minister Aigars Kalvitis. As it so happens, it will not be his job to be so, as he became obliged by a domestic crisis to step down on December 5.

Only Ansip would ponder the implicatio

Georgia

Mon, 30 Jun 2008 11:10:39 +0100
Running feud with Russia
The Caucasus is a volatile, unruly place right now. The Russians have quelled the secessionist rebels in Chechnya by the oldest imperial strategy in history, 'divide and rule,' having a cooperative partner in Chechen President Kadyrov.

But this tactic is having dangerous consequences in Georgia. War is a distinct possibility.

It is locked in a dispute with Russia over its NATO ambitions and Moscow's support for the Georgian breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Tbilisi's Western allies have taken its side in the row.

Strategic Caucasus state
Abkhazia is recognized as part of Georgia, but it is run by separatists with support from Moscow. Friction between the ex-Soviet neighbours over the region has alarmed Western states worried about a conflagration near a vital oil export route.

For Georgia's $10 billion economy lies at the heart of the Caucasus, where the United States and Russia are jostling for influence over the oil and gas transit routes from the Caspian Sea. Georgia is the natural choice here. The key is that a BP-led pipeline pumps about 1 million barrels a day of Caspian Sea crude through Georgia to the Turkish Mediterranean port of Ceyhan.

Partition solution denied, but could be extant
Russia and Georgia on June 27 denied a newspaper report that they were discussing a plan to resolve their conflict over the brea

Greece

Fri, 30 Nov 2007 12:30:51 +0000
Greece and Turkey open gas pipeline
Greece and Turkey are edgy neighbours, who have, nevertheless, been getting on better of late.
As a symbol of good intentions as well as for more mundane reasons, they opened a $300 million pipeline on November 18, creating an energy corridor that connects the rich natural gas fields in the Caspian Sea region to Europe, bypassing Russia and the volatile Middle East. The 300-kilometre pipeline brings natural gas from Azerbaijan to Greece and will be extended to Italy and the rest of Western Europe.

The 178-mile pipeline solidifies improved ties between Greece and Turkey, linking the long-time Aegean rivals through a project that will give Caspian gas its first direct Western outlet and help ease Russia's energy dominance as oil and gas prices soar. The two leaders have sought to use an often-cited good personal bond to improve relations between their two countries, which have been strained over decades of territorial disputes in the Aegean Sea - and centuries of shared history within the Ottoman Empire, and later. Karamanlis also shares a personal bond with Erdogan after serving as a witness at his daughter's marriage in 2004.

"This project will bring significant benefits both for Greece and Turkey," said Kostas Karamanlis, the Greek prime minister, who inaugurated the project with his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. It shows "we can live in harmony and both gain from it," Mr

Hungary

Fri, 30 Nov 2007 12:32:35 +0000
At the brink
Hungary is in a ghastly hole. It began to run a huge public deficit, nearly 10%of GDP. The ex-communists who ran the show kept making promises that they could not keep.

The government is nearing the end of its period of severe fiscal austerity, but the structural reforms will continue and a budget deficit of less than 3% of gross domestic product is within reach in the coming years, Prime Minister Gyurcsany said on November 15.

"The period of austerity measures seen in the past 1.5 years is over but this doesn't mean that the reforms are done. Now a period of improvement and construction is to come," Gyurcsany said at a conference organized by domestic think tank GKI.

The ongoing painful reforms of Hungary's healthcare, education, and public sectors are not only aimed at bringing the budget back to a sustainable course but also at putting an end to stop-go fiscal cycles, and at convincing Hungarians that no more can be spent on social services than is received in the budget.

"In a small and open economy such as Hungary's, we need to aim to have a budget that has not a 3% deficit but which is totally balanced (with no deficit)," Gyurcsany said.

Hungary recorded the biggest budget deficit as a percentage of gross domestic products in the European Union last year, at 9.2%. The austerity measures carried out this year and last year amounted to 7.5% of GDP, one of the bigg

India

Fri, 27 Jun 2008 11:00:38 +0100
Progress on India-Iran Pipeline (IPI) Project
India is all set to sign an agreement on a 7.5-billion-dollar gas pipeline with Iran and Pakistan in the coming weeks. In an interview with the NDTV network, Indian Petroleum Minister Murli Deora said that an agreement on the Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) gas pipeline is very likely in the next four to five weeks. Deora, who held talks with his Iranian counterpart Gholam Hosein Nozari at a recent summit, said that some of the issues on the pipeline with Pakistan were resolved. To quote Deora, "I met the Iranian Petroleum Minister, Gholam Hosein Nozari, on the sidelines of the day-long summit [of oil producers and consumers] in Jeddah on Sunday. I assured him that India was very much willing to go ahead with the pipeline. Almost all the bilateral issues have been sorted out and now only trilateral talks are left to be held." India had boycotted the IPI talks since August 2007 following differences over the transit fees demanded by Pakistan for passage of gas through that country. India had also wanted Iran to hand over custody of gas at the India-Pakistan border, and not at the Iran-Pakistan border, to cut transit risks (for political reasons), through the neighboring country. New Delhi was also opposed to Tehran's attempt at inserting a price revision clause in the Gas Sales Agreement. But many are hopeful that the immediate talks that will be held in Tehran will be a success. Pakistan's Foreign Minister, Shah Mahmood

Iran

Wed, 25 Jun 2008 14:49:18 +0100
Diplomacy running out of time
As the end of June approached, many were growing impatient at the slow pace of diplomacy in affecting the Iranian nuclear programme. More impatient than anybody else was the Israeli government, which in June leaked information about a military exercise allegedly meant as a rehearsal for a bombing operation against Iran. Although it is unlikely that Israel would unilaterally attempt an attack on Iran, the attempt to exercise pressure on Washington appears obvious. The Europeans, realising that their diplomatic efforts are losing credibility, had already decided a few days earlier to strengthen the sanctions regime against Iran. Apart from a freeze of the assets of the Iranian national bank, there is talk of sanctions targeting Iran's oil and gas sector, but it is not clear what shape these could take, given the already very high world oil prices. Although the Bush administration is reported not to have any hope that sanctions will force the Iranians to give up uranium enrichment, Washington does not seem to be gearing up for a military attack either, although that could be due to an intention to have Israel act as proxy.

There is talk in Washington now of new strategies to be adopted, but it is not clear of what kind. Iran is coping with the sanctions by making deals with countries such as China, Russia, Malaysia and others, but the problem is that often these countries lack the most advanced extraction technologi

WHEN ANGER IS APPROPRIATE

Mon, 17 Sep 2007 11:54:59 +0100
Anger is perhaps not just forgivable but highly appropriate, after reading the following report on 21st century slavery. But emotion is always misplaced unless the facts are themselves objective, well sourced and sensibly interpreted. Thus our report refers to "Europe's Modern Slave Trade - Human Trafficking" - rather than the long existing Latin America-to-USA traffic; or the equally heinous intra-Asian variety, to which of course we make reference. This is partly because in Europe, this scandal is probably newer with the collapse of communism. Thus it is reasonably well documented.

We also make a distinction between regrettable male and female 'human smuggling,' where those often economic refugees being smuggled, are complicit with their smugglers. This we see as distinct from the unmitigated evil of old-fashioned slavery, where an unwilling victim, often a stolen child or helpless young woman, is under the control and at the disposal of the trafficker.

But also we refer to Europe because the remit of newnations.com is to report the affairs of currently forty-five 'nations in transition,' and we name here several of those nations as being involved. Albania, Bulgaria, Belarus, Moldova and Ukraine. All these are named in this report as being the greatest sources of trafficked victims.

A current exhibition of worldwide human trafficking in the Museum of World Culture in Sweden's Gothenburg, reports amo

Iraq

Wed, 25 Jun 2008 14:47:43 +0100
Maliki resurgence continues
Prime Minister Maliki appeared to be still gaining popularity in June, as his crackdown on illegal militias continued to achieve successes. Even the Sadrist leadership supported the effort to rein in their own rogue elements and Maliki reciprocated by ordering the army not to target Sadrists indiscriminately. There are increasingly some signs that Maliki might be able to start a virtuous cycle on the strength of his recent achievements; for example the main Sunni bloc, happy to see the Shiite militias reduced, is now ready to rejoin the government, of course in exchange for a number of ministerial appointments. At the same time however, on a number of other fronts Maliki's leadership still appears far from being decisive. About half of the cabinet posts are still vacant, as he avoids appointing replacements in order not to start quarrels with the different factions which support him. The government is still filled with incompetent party men, whom Maliki uses to buy support in parliament among the factions. Even within his own party, Maliki has to please several different factions, which prevents him from getting competent administrators in the jobs and therefore from delivering an improvement in the quality and quantity of services delivered to the population.

A display of skill
The issue with Maliki's successes is whether they are sustainable or not. The militias have not really been crushed, instead

Kazakstan

Fri, 27 Jun 2008 13:56:19 +0100
Kashagan; Westward Ho!
The West is actually a far more important partner for Kazakhstan than recidivist Uzbekistan.

Executives from a Western oil consortium developing the Kashagan field sat down for talks with Kazakh officials on May 8 to push on with the project's new development plan. The consortium, which unites Italy's ENI, Exxon Mobil, Royal Dutch Shell and other majors, is due to submit its proposals on the future of the world's biggest oil find in three decades by the end of May.

Consortium members and Kazakh officials met in the capital Astana, to discuss details of a deal reached in January that ended months of tense negotiations over cost overruns and production delays at Kashagan.

The source said vice-presidents of consortium companies were holding closed-door talks with senior officials from the Kazakh energy ministry and national oil company KazMunaiGas [KMG.UL].

The January deal, while calming investor confidence shaken after six months of squabbling between Kazakhstan and the oil majors, will be enforced only after the sides agree on the precise production and structural details of the project. Under that deal, KazMunaiGas would double its stake in Kashagan and strip ENI of its leading role in the project, whose production start has been further delayed to the end of 2011.

Industry sources have said the deadline for the proposals, set at May 31, may be pushed back furt

Kyrgyzstan

Fri, 30 Nov 2007 13:21:50 +0000
The revolution continues
The 'revolution' carries on, insofar as no one can any more dictate the political course of events. The situation is still volatile in Kyrgystan. After months of wrangling between government and opposition, it is agreed that there should be new elections to parliament in December.

But there is now huge controversy over what form they should take.

Concern is being raised in Kyrgyzstan over a requirement that political parties must pass a certain threshold in each of the country's seven regions in order to win parliamentary seats in elections. Kyrgyzstan's first parliamentary elections based on party lists are set for December 16 after a new constitution and laws were passed in an October referendum.

These are the first parliamentary elections since President Askar Akaev was ousted in the so-called Tulip Revolution in March 2005.

The new dispensation
The Central Election Commission has ruled that according to the new election law, parties must get at least 13,500 votes, or 0.5 percent of the overall total of registered voters nationwide, in each of the country's seven provinces and two biggest cities, Bishkek and Osh - a rule meant to prevent purely regional parties with no other qualification from making it into the national parliament. Very hard for Kyrgyzstan's clan-based politics to come to terms with.

This requirement is in addition to the 5

Latvia

Fri, 30 Nov 2007 13:24:59 +0000
Resignation Of Premier Aigars Kalvitis
The news broke on November 7 that the Latvian Prime Minister, Aigars Kalvitis, will step down on December 5. He has been Prime Minister since December 2004.

Kalvitis announced his decision after a November 7 meeting with President Valdis Zatlers, who has gone on the record saying that the government should resign once it has passed a budget for 2008.
The December 5 deadline should give Kalvitis time to push the budget through as well as ratifying a definitive border treaty with Russia and possibly also completing reorganisation of local government.

However, it seems that Kalvitis intends that the government itself should continue even after his departure. According to a report in November 8's Dienas Bizness, he will appoint new ministers for the Economy, Foreign Affairs and Welfare before his departure, a signal to Zatlers that a dissolution of parliament would be untimely.

Not surprising in the circumstances
Mr Kalvitis' resignation is hardly surprising and comes after a period of intensified political and economic crisis in Latvia. Nonetheless, his resignation clearly intensifies the crisis further and increases uncertainties about the political and economic situation in the country.

It seems clear that Mr Kalvitis' resignation has been masterminded by the power brokers in the three governing coalition parties that undoubtedly will blam

Lithuania

Fri, 30 Nov 2007 13:28:55 +0000
With winter rapidly approaching, everyone in the Baltic states is concerned with energy. Lithuania is in the same boat as the other Baltic states vis-a vis energy, an over-reliance on one supplier - Russia. It is also the key state to help them to diversify, as we shall see.

Energy issues
A paper on a European Strategy for Sustainable, Competitive and Secure Energy issued by European Union Energy Commissioner Latvian Andris Piebalgs in March 2006 referred to the Baltic states as an "energy island." It was the first time the phrase was used, it caught on and has been going the rounds ever since.

Piebalgs's label for the Baltic states refers to their being cut off from supplies of oil, gas, and electricity. With few natural resources of their own, the Baltic states are increasingly reliant upon external suppliers. More troubling for states that only managed to break free of the Soviet Union 16 years ago, the word "suppliers" can be replaced, for all intents and purposes, with the singular, "supplier": Russia.

Piebalgs revived his catchphrase while speaking in Riga in May, saying: "I would like to see the Baltic states at the heart of [the EU's energy] transformation. This would fit well with the acute need for greater security of energy supply in these states, which have for too long been an energy island dependent upon one major supplier of gas."

Worries about the reliability of Russian oil and ga

Libya

Mon, 30 Jun 2008 11:18:54 +0100
The Migration Card
In recent years, Libya's importance to the European Union has grown beyond that of energy supplier. Western (and not) oil companies continue to bid over exploration rights to take advantage of a potential wide range of untapped oil deposits, but European governments are increasingly courting Libya in an attempt to reduce the flow of illegal migrants across the Mediterranean. In June, the EU approved tougher measures against illegal migrants, including longer periods of detention and more incisive deportation procedures. Nevertheless, this has not stopped boats filled to capacity from leaving the Libyan fishing town of Zuwarah, just south of the border with Tunisia, heading toward the Italian island of Pantelleria. At least two such boats have capsized in June alone, and each had at least 100 migrants aboard. Thanks to its over 2000 km. long coastline and largely unguarded 3600 km desert border, Libya serves as the principal country for the gathering of Sub-Saharan African migrants, from Niger, Chad, Mali and other countries, seeking a passage to Europe. Therefore, Libya is also the focus of European efforts to block that migration, a policy that puts Libya in an advantageous diplomatic position, particularly as far as Italy is concerned. Barely two months in office, Italy's prime minister Berlusconi has visited Libya in June with a bag full of bargaining chips to obtain more Libyan cooperation in controlling the flow of migrants.

Macedonia

Fri, 30 Nov 2007 12:34:23 +0000
With Macedonia hoping for a NATO invitation in 2008 and Greece threatening to block it, there are pressing reasons to resolve their decades-old name dispute. But UN envoy Matthew Nimitz -- brokering negotiations between the two sides -- still faces a task akin to the labour of Sisyphus, the legendary king cursed to roll a boulder up a hill for eternity.

Both countries are proving tough bargainers, with Greece prepared to exercise its power within the EU and NATO, and its neighbour banking on getting enough international recognition to put pressure on Athens.

Late last week, Macedonian Prime Minister Nikola Gruevski firmly rejected the idea of a "dual name", under which the country would keep its constitutional name but use a different one internationally.

Any name other than Republic of Macedonia -- the name given in the constitution -- is unacceptable, Gruevski said.

The dual name idea is included in a new set of proposals presented by Nimitz at the start of the month. The prime minister said that while the document contains some good points, others pose a problem for Skopje.

"There is an item that is definitely unacceptable for us, which says that the Republic of Macedonia is to accept for international use a name other than the constitutional name of the Republic of Macedonia," Maxfax quoted him as saying.

Earlier, Macedonian leaders issued a statement opposing any name chang

Moldova

Fri, 30 Nov 2007 13:31:23 +0000
The fall-out from Rome
Moldova cannot but be adversely affected by the rumpus developing between Romania, its alter-ego, and Italy, in which Romanian crooks and worse, rapist murderers, are now loose in Rome, Milan and elsewhere. It all certainly puts back any prospect of Moldova following Romania soon into the EU fold. It is all about subscribing to the Treaty of Rome after all.

This is anyway an unlikely eventuality so long as the territorial integrity of the Moldovan state remains in question, although it remains a reasonable long-term goal.

Moldova in crisis
Accusations of double standards are flying across the Dniester river, as Pridnestrovie (also known informally as Transnistria) blames Moldova for saying one thing but acting in a totally contrary way.

The issue: The first talks to resolve their differences in more than a year and a half, which were supposed to be held in November in Madrid, but which had to be called off after Moldova announced that it wouldn't take part. Pridnestrovie had already confirmed its willingness to attend.

On 13 November 2007, a meeting was supposed to have taken place in Spain, between representatives of the sides, mediators, and observers within (a cumbersome title for a complex affair) the Permanent Conference on Political Issues in the Framework of the "5+2" Moldova-Pridnestrovie Settlement Negotiation Process. The meeting was planned as the fir

Montenegro

Fri, 18 Jan 2008 13:30:20 +0000
The newest of the new
Montenegro became the latest country to emerge last year when its people voted just enough, 55% in May, to obtain independence. Any rerun would see this victory repeated with a landslide, so popular has the independent reality been.

Montenegro separated from its former federal partner, Serbia, in June 2006 after a referendum on independence. It was an independent state until 1918 when its leaders opted to join the newly-formed Kingdom of Serbs, Croats and Slovenes that later became Yugoslavia. Montenegro was the smallest among the six republics in federal Yugoslavia and it was the only republic to stay in a federation with Serbia after 1992.

Montenegro is poised to do really well. It is a jewel of a new country on the Adriatic. It has everything a nature-lover could want and is a tourist paradise close to the heart of Europe.

Its property market is the most expansive on the continent. It can expect a continuing flood of rich entrants, boosting prices. In particular it has attracted Russians some of whom have purchased the choicest developments.

But its own people have problems all the same. Not everything is paradise for them.

The EU beckons
This became clear in the EU report on Macedonia for this year.The Commission expects Montenegro to produce significant results in relation to improving administrative capacity and tackling corruption.

North Korea

Mon, 30 Jun 2008 11:14:35 +0100
North Korea: Yongbyon gone, moving on?
As June ended, North Korea hit the world's headlines for two related events on successive days. The more spectacular of these, made for television and to which, in a rare privilege, Pyongyang invited what it often condemns as the West's "reptile media" was blowing up the main cooling tower at Yongbyon, the DPRK's main and only known nuclear site, on 27 June. Television stations around the world showed the explosion and crumbling of what in tenser times had been a key indicator for spy satellites. If there was tell-tale smoke, then the reactor was running and North Korea was producing fuel for plutonium and vice versa.

That piece of theatre came a day after a less media-friendly but ultimately more important event. Having been tipped off that North Korea would submit its long-awaited nuclear declaration on 26 June to China as chair of the Six Party Talks (6PT), journalists in Beijing waited most of the day for what turned out to be a very low-key, almost furtive moment. Eventually the Chinese foreign ministry gave a brief press conference confirming that the document had been handed over, but took no questions. DPRK emissaries did not appear.

Quid pro quo
While the text of whatever North Korea submitted had not been published as of 28 June, it was enough for the US. Within hours, President George W Bush announced two measures. Longstanding sanctions against the DPRK unde

2008 - A YEAR OF DESTINY

Mon, 15 Oct 2007 13:50:53 +0100
With the summer behind us, it is not too soon to consider 2008, when the most powerful job in the world will change hands and also what is perhaps the world's second to the top job, a contender for the next most powerful presidency - because Russia's leader must be in the running for that distinction. Within no more than seventeen years from the collapse of the USSR - when Putin's eight year presidency terminates, the crippled federation of nations that emerged from the wreckage is looking transformed today. When Putin came to power, the centre was a shambles - close to anarchy with many of its 89 constituent republics going their own way and its economy in the hands of oligarchs, who with state connivance had acquired control of the commanding heights of financial power. Many of its citizens had forfeited their life savings - victims of an economic shock therapy that led to meltdown. Few of the faults of the soviet command economy had been rectified and Russian manufacturing was at its lowest ebb. Right across the vast expanse of the world's largest nation, gangsters had become the new aristocracy, the rule of law had given way to the rule of the gun, indeed it was widely called by involved westerners, "the Wild East". The nation was close to becoming a basket case.

It is hard to fully appreciate how fundamentally things have changed. Putin, relying on his trusted cohorts from the security services and the military, as Cromwell did with his major generals, ha

Outposts of Tyranny

Mon, 14 Apr 2008 11:16:40 +0100
Condi Rice named six nations described as 'Outposts of Tyranny.' and "Fear Societies". These are Cuba, Zimbabwe, Myanmar, Iran, North Korea and Belarus.

These are all good choices, but we note that no allies of the US or 'hosts' of US military bases, or oil and gas supplier nations are listed except Iran, with whom the US has famously had a spat for 30 years now. Did she overlook any others?

We invite readers to add any more nations, particularly since the Fourth Division of our Democracy Report consists of 74 nations, many of which fall into her category of 'Fear Societies.' :-

Pakistan

Wed, 25 Jun 2008 14:40:50 +0100
Political turmoil casts shadow over economy
The ruling coalition's troubles have so far not contributed to improve Musharraf's popularity which remains very low. A large majority of Pakistanis wish him impeached or would like him to resign, according to opinion polls. A change of coalition with Musharraf's PML-Q replacing Nawaz Sharif's party has not happened yet, even if the PML-Q remains outside the cabinet. However, PPP leader Zardari and Musharraf have some interests in common which have so far saved the former general from impeachment. In particular, they both despise Nawaz Sharif and have something to fear from former chief justice Chaudhry, whom Sharif wants reinstated. Some observers argue that Zardari's popularity is already fading as he increasingly behaves like an autocrat; if the trend continues, it might push him closer to Musharraf. In public, while Sharif argues for impeachment, Zardari says he wants to offer to Musharraf the chance of a 'dignified' exit. The resulting uncertainty is hurting the stock exchange of Karachi, which is now at a 14-month low. The stock exchange had already been badly shaken in May by the Central Bank's decision to raise interest rates from 10% to 12.5%, in order to fight the rising inflation, which in April had reached 17%.

Acknowledging the slowdown
The latest estimates of GDP growth in 2007-8 put it at 5.8%, lower than previously forecast. The agricultural sector was the worst perform

Philippines

Mon, 30 Jun 2008 11:40:38 +0100
HOPE FOUNDERS ONCE MORE
There was hope, for a while at least, that in the twilight years of her Presidency (if such they are), President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo would be conscious of the need to secure her place in history through improved governance, professionalising the bureaucracy and addressing in meaningful way the plight of the growing number of poor. This means more quality jobs in the formal sector which, in turn, means more investment. It was a hope, but the reality is once again proving to be somewhat different.

In the face of the global economic downturn which is impacting on many in the Philippines- not sending the country into recession mind you, but not likely to see a return to the high growth rates of recent times either, the government has retreated back to a "bread and circuses" approach to governance.

Over recent weeks we have been treated to the farce of a rice crisis, which turned out to be no more than a price hike in line with global trends; the bloodying of the country's largest distribution utility, Meralco, as though it alone was to blame for high energy prices. Yet we have seen not a word said over the penchant of the National Power Corporation to continue to buy fuel on the spot market (where commissions are high) rather than on the basis of long-term contracts. Flexibility, it seems, comes at a high price.

Next we have seen the Joint Foreign Chambers boorishly taken to task for daring

Romania

Fri, 27 Jun 2008 13:38:01 +0100
Renault's Romanian Fairyland Suspended
The Bucharest press didn't approve of the workers' vote to strike at the Dacia car plant in March, nor its implications for industrial relations. "Doctor Union: the anti-investment cure" was the headline in the daily Jurnalul on March 22; "Dacia and ArcelorMittal, strikes are at the limit of the law" was the headline in Cotidianul on March 26; Evenimentul Zilei, the Ringier group daily, reckoned on March 27 that the strike at the Renault subsidiary could put up the Dacia Logan's price by $78 to $125.
By STÉPHANE LUÇON

That reaction from Romanian journalists is symptomatic of a trauma still gripping the country following the dictatorship of Nicolae Ceausescu, and after the political manipulation of the miners' strikes in 1990 and 1991. (Democratically elected but unable to stabilise the political situation after the fall of Nicolae Ceausescu, President Ion Iliescu approved the miners who, in June 1990, descended on Bucharest and ransacked the offices of local authorities and of opposition parties. In September 1991 Iliescu used a new march by the miners as an excuse to dispose of prime minister Petre Roman. Four died and over a hundred were injured in riots.)

During the transition years, the media described wage claims as a form of nostalgia for totalitarian communism, a pretext to treat activists as pariahs. Romania in transition was divided. Workers saw their jobs disappearing east

Russia

Fri, 27 Jun 2008 13:51:42 +0100
War impending?
There is no more important question for a country than whether it is on the brink of war. It is not impossible that Russia may be once again. It is in the Caucasus yet again, extending its presence, but not this time in Chechnya.

Tensions between Georgia and Russia over Abkhazia flared anew on June 18, prompting a warning from Russian President Dmitry Medvedev not to provoke his country's troops in the breakaway zone.

The latest flare-up came a day after Georgian officials said they had detained four Russian peacekeepers transporting guided missiles in a western Georgian region just outside the disputed territory.

Russian defence officials denied the accusation and a Georgian interior ministry spokesman, Shota Utiashivili, said that the soldiers would be released, because Georgia had no authority over them.

But by late on the same day, Georgia had returned only the empty vehicle that the soldiers were travelling in when detained near the western Georgian city of Zugdidi. In a statement, the Kremlin said that Medvedev spoke by telephone during the day with Georgian counterpart Mikheil Saakashvili. "Medvedev said provocations against Russian peacekeepers, who are acting under international obligations, are unacceptable," the Kremlin said. They did not explain why Russian peace keepers required guided missiles.

"Saakashvili promised to sort the situation out," the statement

Serbia

Mon, 30 Jun 2008 11:05:52 +0100
New premier for new government
Finance minister, Mirko Cvetkovic, was nominated on June 27 to become prime minister of a new pro-European coalition government.

If confirmed by Parliament, Mr. Cvetkovic, 57, a low-key technocrat in the pro-Western Democratic Party of President Boris Tadic, would succeed Vojislav Kostunica, the departing nationalist prime minister. Mr. Kostunica, who helped lead the revolution that overthrew Slobodan Milosevic in 2000, has railed against the West in recent months.

The formation of a government, perhaps as soon as early July, comes after weeks of intense jockeying and is the result of an unlikely alliance between Mr. Tadic's pro-European Democratic Party and the late Mr. Milosevic's Socialist Party, which fought a war against the West in the 1990s.

By agreeing to form a coalition, Mr. Milosevic's old party paradoxically would be helping to bring Serbia back into the European fold. Mr. Cvetkovic is expected to focus on Serbia's drive to enter the European Union while trying to improve its economy. Serbia is among Europe's poorest countries.

The Democrats won the most seats in a parliamentary election on May 11, but not enough to form a majority in the 250-seat Parliament. Mr. Kostunica's nationalist party initially wooed the Socialists, but the talks broke off when it became clear that the Socialists wanted to link Serbia's future to the European Union, while Mr. Kostun

Slovakia

Fri, 30 Nov 2007 12:54:23 +0000
Dispute over a land deal threatens coalition, says Smer
Its former dictator, Vladimir Meciar, continues to haunt Slovakian politics. He had the good grace to accept the verdict of the polls nine years ago in 1998 and stand down and has thus been able to remain in mainstream politics. His party is now causing ructions inside the governing coalition, which would lose its majority in parliament without its support.

The Slovak senior ruling party, Smer-Social Democracy of Prime Minister Robert Fico, said on November 20 that a dispute over a (corrupt) land deal threatens the existence of the coalition government. "The situation in the governing coalition is serious," Silvia Glendova, a spokeswoman for Smer, told Slovak TA3 news television.

She said her party blamed the junior People's Party- Movement for a Democratic Slovakia of Meciar. "Smer is not interested in participating in a coalition which would tolerate such managing of land in the Slovak Land Fund," Glendova said.

At issue is a piece of land near the High Tatras mountain range that was purchased by a company close to Meciar's party for some 13 million koruna (euro392,300; US$580,000) from owners who had received it as restitution in a deal approved by the Slovak Land Fund. The land's real value is reportedly 1.5 billion koruna (euro45.3 million; US$67.0 million). Fico's Smer called the deal "scandalous."

The Slovak agriculture minister, Miroslav

Slovenia

Fri, 30 Nov 2007 12:55:46 +0000
The departing president, who remains head of state until just before Christmas, is an unusual man and deserves this tribute:-
Martin Fletcher, Times Online

It is not often that you ask a European head of state whether he has gone loopy, but in the case of Janez Drnovsek, Slovenia's reclusive President, the question seems almost unavoidable.

Bald, monkish and skeletally thin, Drnovsek has abandoned his capital for a mountain retreat. He no longer speaks to his Government. He boycotts state occasions, and disappears for weeks at a time. He has turned vegan, talks like a New Age mystic of his quest for "higher consciousness" and "inner balance", and communicates with the Slovenian people through books on spirituality. He set out to tackle the problems of the world from a country smaller than Wales, and has become a champion of progressive causes.

It is an astonishing transformation for a man who, as Slovenia's Prime Minister from 1992 until he was elected President in 2002, was regarded as a dull, grey technocrat. It was triggered by the prospect of imminent death. In 1999 he found that he had kidney cancer and, in 2001, that the cancer had spread to his liver and lungs. His doctors said his condition was incurable.

Any serious illness comes as a shock, but "the shock can be beneficial because one is caught in patterns of behaviour and somehow you do them mechanically and without really thinking about them