Global Cooling & New Ice Age UK

Unsettled Then Warmer (as forecast over 200 days in advance) + Important Climate Change/CET Update

2013-05-27T12:26:00.000-07:00

Unsettled Then Warmer (as forecast over 200 days in advance) + Important Climate Change/CET Update

Tuesday will bring a day of showers for many, and a number of these are likely to turn thundery and heavy in places. However, there will be some sunny periods in places in between the showers, and parts of the north will fare somewhat better in comparison to the south. It will also be particularly windy in parts of the far north as we progress throughout Tuesday too. Some of the heavy and thundery showers are also likely to continue into the early part of Wednesday across some southern parts of the country, with the potential for some heavy hail showers to develop in places for this part of the forecasting period too. The remainder of Wednesday is then likely to remain unsettled with some further showers and periods of sunshine. Some of these showers may also turn heavy again in parts of the north, whilst parts of the south/east may fare somewhat better in terms of some developing sunny periods. Thursday looks set to bring another day of sunny spells and widespread showers, although the showers are likely to be somewhat lighter in nature than in previous days. Most of the showers are then likely to dissipate as we progress throughout the day to leave a clear evening with some periods of developing sunshine for many. It will also feel warmer than of late in the best of the sunshine too. As we progress throughout the latter part of the working week and into next weekend, there is the potential for some much warmer and drier weather to develop, but especially more so across the southern half of the country. However, there will still be the risk of some more unsettled weather at times across parts of the north and to the west for this part of the forecasting period, and a number of these showers could turn potentially thundery in places. It will also feel rather chilly for the time of the year under clearer skies in the evenings too.

Our original spring forecast issued over 200 days ahead to subscribers stated:

As we progress throughout the remainder of May and into the start of June, it is likely to become potentially very warm. Depending on how warm this period becomes, temperatures are more likely to come in at near or below the seasonal average for the May period as a whole.

With the start to the new working week set to feature at below the seasonal average in terms of temperature for many, and the timing of the infiltration of warmer weather to the UK, this is now likely to result in the 5th consecutive below-average month in terms of the mean Central England for 2013.

January -0.3C

February -0.6C

March -3.0C

(March was equal coldest since 1883 in terms of the mean CET - as forecast in early November to subscribers)

April -0.4C

May -0.6C (provisional, to the 26th)

This is especially significant as the oldest recorded temperature dataset in the world, it is also one of the most fundamental indicators of climate change too. Our detailed, and appropriately named blog (ice age circulation patterns) that dates back over the last 5-6 years and Exacta Weather/YouTube channel, have consistently stated that the science behind global warming was totally unfounded.

http://globalcoolingnewiceageuk.blogspot.co.uk/

http://www.youtube.com/user/ukweathergeek

Our detailed 2013 summer forecast is also available in the link below:

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Premium_Forecast.html

Our detailed 2013/14 autumn/winter forecast is also available in the link below:

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Ultra_Long_Range.html

*NEW* UK/IRE more detailed month ahead forecast is now available in the link below:

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Ire_Month_Ahead.html

Unsettled with periods of very windy weather and rain + warmer weather on the horizon

2013-04-07T10:51:00.001-07:00

Unsettled with periods of very windy weather and rain + warmer weather on the horizon

As we head through Sunday evening and into the start of the new working week, it will remain rather cold with some further wintry showers of sleet and snow across parts of the far north. These will eventually begin to peter out across parts of the north throughout Monday, and leave a drier but cloudy day for many. However, parts of the south are likely to see the development of some light rain showers, with some wintry precipitation across higher ground in parts of the west/Wales. The remainder of the working week is then likely to see a mixed bag of wet and windy weather across many parts. The rain is likely to be heavy in places at times, but especially in the southern half of the country. The picture is also likely to turn a little milder than of late across the southern half of the country. However, it is likely to stay cold for the time of the year across the northern half of the country. This will also bring with it the risk of some further wintry/snow showers at times in these parts too. Tuesday through to Thursday will also see it turn very windy across the country, especially across the northern half of the country. There is also the risk of some gales in parts of the far south for this part of the forecasting period too. As we head into next weekend, there are indications of a change to milder conditions for most, but especially more so in parts to the south. This is also a good indication of some warmer and more settled weather on the horizon in the coming weeks. However, it is still likely to feel rather chilly in the evenings throughout this part of the forecasting period. It is still also likely to become rather unsettled with periods of rain at times. Some of this wetter weather will also be accompanied by very windy weather too.

Our original spring forecast from over 150 days ahead also stated:

Our detailed 2013 summer forecast is also available in the link below:

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Premium_Forecast.html

Update added: Sunday 7th April 2013 18:04

Remaining cold and wintry into April + spring warmth at last? – as forecast 150 days ahead

2013-03-28T07:35:00.000-07:00

Remaining cold and wintry into April + some spring warmth at last?

The start to spring and March has experienced some of the heaviest snowfalls across the UK for over three decades, and one of the coldest March periods on record (possibly the coldest in over 100 years, dependent upon final minimum temperature adjustments). The original spring forecast issued 150 days ahead also stated: Our forecasting parameters indicate that March could turn out to be a potentially record-breaking month in regard to the major COLD and SNOW episodes that are likely to develop.

As we head into the start of April, the picture is set to remain cold and wintry at times too. Some further falls of snow and wintry showers are also likely at times, but especially more so in the northern half of the country. The colder weather will also lead to the development of some sharp and widespread frosts for the time of the year. It is also likely to turn very windy at times throughout this part of the forecasting period, but especially more so in parts to the west and the northern half of the country. However, as we head into the second half of the month, there are indications of some much warmer temperatures and long periods of sunshine for many parts of the country, but especially more so across the southern half of the country to begin with. However, it is still likely to feel rather chilly in the evenings throughout this part of the forecasting period too. The higher pressure if and when it does develop, is also likely to lose control quite quickly, as it once again becomes colder for the latter part of this forecasting period. The alternative scenario with as much weighting, may see a continuation of the colder than average conditions throughout the whole month.

The following information was also provided to ITN news on Monday 24th March 2013 from myself:

"Apart from a few brief warm spells in April and May, it is likely to remain rather cold and wintry throughout the remainder of spring too. This is largely down to the period of low solar activity that we currently reside in, and how it intrinsically alters major factors such as the Jet Stream"

Our almost blank sun, courtesy of NASA (27th March 2013)

Where is this period of high solar activity/sunspots at according to all the experts?
Also see: http://www.exactaweather.com/uploads/PW2012-13.pdf

The April section of the 2013 spring weather forecast that was issued to subscribers 150 days ahead also stated:

The April period is also likely to see a continuation of these wintry conditions to begin with, especially across the northern half of the country. It will also be particularly windy or very windy at times once again too. However, the April period is also likely to see a potential shift in this pattern as we progress throughout the month, leading to a much more settled and warmer spell of weather for many parts of the country. It is quite plausible that temperatures could range between 1C to 4C above the seasonal average across the country for the development of this given period, but especially more so in the southern half of the country. However, the colder than average theme is likely to return at some point towards the end of this period and as we head into the final month of the meteorological spring.

Our detailed 2013 summer forecast is also available in the link below:

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Premium_Forecast.html

Update added: Thursday 28th March 2013 14:15

Remaining cold and wintry for Easter week - Record-breaking March now very likely

2013-03-24T17:11:00.001-07:00

Remaining cold and wintry for Easter week - Record-breaking March now very likely

As we head into the Easter week, the theme is set to remain cold with well below-average temperatures for the time of the year for most of the country. Monday through to Wednesday will also see the development of some further wintry/snow showers, but especially more so in parts to the north and east of the country. The evenings will also become especially cold under clearer conditions, and with this comes the risk of some severe frosts, but especially more so in parts of the north and Scotland. However, there will also be some reasonable sunny periods and drier conditions for this part of the forecasting period, especially in some parts to the west of the country. By Thursday and Friday it is likely to become a touch milder than of late in some parts of the south, but there will once again be a continuation of wintry/snow showers in some parts of the north and east. Some of these showers could prove to be heavy at times in these parts, with the possibility of some decent accumulations in places at times too, but especially more so across higher ground. An area of low pressure is also likely to push in across some parts of the far south and west for the later part of this forecasting period. There is a relatively high-risk that this could bring some further snow as it progresses northwards, but especially more so in some parts of Wales, northern England, Northern Ireland, and Scotland. It will also become rather windy in some parts of the north and west for this part of the forecasting period and into Saturday too. As we head into the Easter weekend, weather fronts will bring the risk of some further wintry/snow showers, with the possibility of them becoming slightly more widespread for this part of the forecasting period. There is also the possibility of some slightly milder temperatures in the southern half of the country, but it is likely to remain rather cold in the northern half of the country. However, the alternative scenario with as much weighting, may see it staying cold for most parts throughout this part of the forecasting period too. This is now likely to result in one of the coldest March periods on record, and as predicted in our spring forecast that was issued to subscribers nearly 150 days ago.

Update added: Sunday 24th March 2013 19:01

Detailed Spring 2013 Forecast – Now Only £4 or FREE with the Summer 2013 Forecast in the link below:

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Premium_Forecast.html

Cold and windy, with a significant risk of snow for many parts throughout next week + successful snow risk dates? & March Forecast (30 & 140 days ahead)

2013-03-17T15:35:00.001-07:00

Cold and windy, with a significant risk of snow for many parts throughout next week + successful snow risk dates? & March Forecast (30 & 140 days ahead)

Forecasting period - 18th to 24th March

As we start the new working week it will once again turn rather cold for the time of the year, in particular, across parts of Scotland and northern England. The colder weather will also be accompanied by some windy conditions and wintry showers of hail, sleet, and snow in these parts throughout Monday too. There is also likely to be some wintry showers across higher ground in some parts of the south as we progress throughout Monday too. Tuesday and into Wednesday will then see it turn very cold for most parts, especially across parts of the north/Scotland. This will also be accompanied by some further widespread and wintry showers for many parts throughout Tuesday too, and a number of these are likely to turn quite heavy in places. This brings with it the risk of some snow accumulations in places, but especially more so across higher ground. Thursday and into Friday will bring a similar picture, but especially more so across parts of the west, Wales, northern England, Northern Ireland, and Scotland. This is also likely to lead to some further accumulations of snow, but especially more so in parts of northern England and Wales, where some notable accumulations are possible. The wintry weather will also be accompanied by some strengthening winds for this part of the forecasting period, leading to the development of some drifting snow/blizzard conditions in places. These conditions are also likely to prevail into next weekend, but especially more so in some northern and eastern parts of the country. However, there is the potential for some periods of sunny and drier weather in parts, with the possibility of some milder conditions in parts of the south.
Our snow risk forecast that was made available on the 17th February also stated (30 days ahead):
This is likely to lead to the development of some quite severe frosts and further snow events for a large portion of the remainder of the month, but especially more so throughout the period of the 16^th - 24^th March. There will also be some very strong winds at times, heightening the risk of some developing blizzards under the right conditions.
Our original spring forecast that was made available to subscribers in early November (nearly 140 days ahead) stated:
The start to spring 2013 and the March period is likely to see a continuation of winter conditions for the UK and Ireland. It is likely to be an unusually cold and exceptionally snowy month for many parts of the country. Our forecasting parameters indicate that March could turn out to be a potentially record-breaking month in regard to the major cold and snow episodes that are likely to develop. There is the potential for some exceptionally heavy falls of snow to develop across many parts of the country. The northern half of the country is also likely to experience the worst of the cold and snowy conditions. However, it is also likely that the southern half of the country will experience a number of major snow events at times throughout the March period too. It is highly likely that there will be a number of school closures and disruption to the public transport network across the country too (purchasers of this forecast will therefore receive a free snow risk dates and temperature forecast in the early part of 2013 for this given period).

The March period will also be particularly windy at times too, this will lead to the development of some especially high powered winds. This is also likely to result in some very dangerous blizzard conditions at times under the right conditions, especially in the southern half of the country. It is also likely to be a relatively dry start to spring in terms of rainfall amounts across the country, but not in terms of precipitation as snowfall.

The detailed Spring 2013 (March, April, May) and Summer 2013 (June. July, August) is now also available to subscribers in the link below

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Premium_Forecast.html

The following Daily Express article from the 20th February 2013 also stated:
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/378966/Britain-set-for-10-day-freeze-as-temperatures-plunge
James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather said: “March could turn out to be one of the snowiest that we have experienced for quite some time.
“There may also be the potential risk of it becoming one of the snowiest March periods on record, and it will be exceptionally cold at times too.”
Update Added: Sunday 17th March 2013 (21:49)

Winter returns in spring as promised over 130 days ahead

2013-03-10T11:10:00.000-07:00

Winter returns in spring as promised over 130 days ahead

It will turn unusually cold for the time of the year throughout Monday and into Tuesday across most parts of the country. Weather fronts will also bring outbreaks of snow to parts of the south and east, in particular, in parts of south-west England. This is also likely to lead to some notable snow accumulations in these parts at times too. The snow will also be accompanied by some rather strong winds leading to the development of some blizzard conditions for this part of the forecasting period, especially across higher ground in some parts of the south and east. Elsewhere will also be at risk from seeing some wintry showers throughout Monday and Tuesday too, but especially more so in some northern parts on Tuesday. This part of the forecasting period will also see the development of some widespread and severe frosts across the country and into Wednesday under clearer conditions in the evenings. Wednesday will also bring some further wintry showers across the northern half of the country. Thursday and into Friday are then likely to turn a little milder, especially in some parts of the south. However, there will still be the risk of some further snow across parts of the north, east, and south at times, but especially more so on Thursday. Some of this snow may also spread to other parts of the country too. As we progress throughout next weekend and into next week, the risk of some further snow and colder weather is likely to make a return, but especially more so across the northern half of the country at present.

Our original spring forecast that was made available to subscribers in early November (over 130 days ahead) stated:

The start to spring 2013 and the March period is likely to see a continuation of winter conditions for the UK and Ireland. It is likely to be an unusually cold and exceptionally snowy month for many parts of the country. Our forecasting parameters indicate that March could turn out to be a potentially record-breaking month in regard to the major cold and snow episodes that are likely to develop. There is the potential for some exceptionally heavy falls of snow to develop across many parts of the country. The northern half of the country is also likely to experience the worst of the cold and snowy conditions. However, it is also likely that the southern half of the country will experience a number of major snow events at times throughout the March period too. It is highly likely that there will be a number of school closures and disruption to the public transport network across the country too (purchasers of this forecast will therefore receive a free snow risk dates and temperature forecast in the early part of 2013 for this given period).

The March period will also be particularly windy at times too, this will lead to the development of some especially high powered winds. This is also likely to result in some very dangerous blizzard conditions at times under the right conditions, especially in the southern half of the country. It is also likely to be a relatively dry start to spring in terms of rainfall amounts across the country, but not in terms of precipitation as snowfall.

Our snow risk forecast that was made available on the 17th February also stated (nearly 30 days ahead):

This is likely to lead to the development of some quite severe frosts and further snow events for a large portion of the remainder of the month, but especially more so throughout the period of the 16^th - 24^th March. There will also be some very strong winds at times, heightening the risk of some developing blizzards under the right conditions.

The following Daily Express article from the 20th February 2013 also stated:

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/378966/Britain-set-for-10-day-freeze-as-temperatures-plunge

James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather said: “March could turn out to be one of the snowiest that we have experienced for quite some time.

“There may also be the potential risk of it becoming one of the snowiest March periods on record, and it will be exceptionally cold at times too.”

Update Added: Sunday 11th March 2013 (17:36)

Cold end to winter + winter set to continue into spring + snow risk dates

2013-02-17T11:25:00.000-08:00

Cold end to winter + winter set to continue into spring + snow risk dates

The end of the meteorological winter (end of February) and into the start of spring (start of March) is likely to see a continuation of winter conditions in terms of cold and snow episodes for the UK. It will also be particularly dry for this part of the forecasting period, but not in terms of precipitation as snowfall. There is also a risk that some major snow events will develop throughout this part of the forecasting period, but especially more so throughout the period of the 1^st - 7^th March.

This may then be preceded by a brief period of milder temperatures and wetter weather, especially across the southern half of the country. However, it is then likely to turn exceptionally cold for the time of the year once again. This is likely to lead to the development of some quite severe frosts and further snow events for a large portion of the remainder of the month, but especially more so throughout the period of the 16^th - 24^th March. There will also be some very strong winds at times, heightening the risk of some developing blizzards under the right conditions. It is therefore, plausible that March could turn out to be one of the snowiest that we have experienced for quite some time. There may also be the potential risk of it becoming one of the snowiest March periods on record, and it will be exceptionally cold at times too. However, one or two periods of brief moderation and milder temperatures still can't be ruled out throughout the start and later part of this forecasting period.

Added: 17^th February 2013 (18:23)

Please also allow for some deviations in exact timing and scale of given scenarios.

The above forecast for the March period is also very similar as the one issued to subscribers for this forecasting period in early November 2012 (4 months ahead).

Our winter forecast issued on the 23^rd June 2012 (8 months ahead) also stated: “The cold and wintry conditions are also likely to last into spring”

Detailed Spring 2013 Forecast – Now Only £4 or FREE with the Summer 2013 Forecast in the link below:

Will winter continue into the remainder of spring too?

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Premium_Forecast.html

The snow forecast page will also remain in place and be regularly updated throughout the spring period in the following link below:

http://www.exactaweather.com/Snow_Forecast_Page.html

Please also feel free to check out the short range weather forecasts for your area, which are continuously updated at regular intervals throughout each day based on weather model suggestions in the link below:

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Short_Range_Forecast.html

A return to winter by the end of the week and into early February?

2013-01-27T13:37:00.005-08:00

A return to winter by the end of the week and into early February?

As we begin the new working week, there will be some further falls of heavy snow across higher ground in parts of Scotland. There will also be gale force winds across parts of the north, in particular, in parts of Western Scotland. With this comes the risk of some developing blizzard conditions across higher ground in these parts throughout Monday too.

However, the brief run of milder and more unsettled weather is also likely to bring the risk of some localised flooding from melting snow in some upland and mountainous areas of northern and southern England, in particular, on Tuesday. However, there will also be some further snow at times across higher ground in parts of Scotland throughout Tuesday too.

Wednesday and into Thursday will bring a relatively cool theme (not mild) across parts of the north, in particular, above higher ground in parts of Scotland. Low pressure is also likely to work southwards on Wednesday, bringing weather fronts across these parts. These fronts are also likely to bring some further snow and blizzard conditions at times above higher ground in parts of the north too. However, it is likely to become quite mild in parts of the south, especially in the far south for this part of the forecasting period (Tuesday to Thursday).

As we head into the latter part of the working week and into next weekend, the regime is likely to revert back to a winter feel for many once again. Further frost and fog will begin to develop for many during the evenings (especially in parts of the north), daytime temperatures will also become quite cool for many parts once again too. Friday will see further falls of snow and bring some potential blizzard conditions in parts of Scotland (especially across higher ground). With this comes the risk of some further wintry precipitation and further snow across other parts of the north and possibly to other parts of the country throughout next weekend too, although the exact development in detail is somewhat low in confidence on this scenario at this stage.

A further update will follow on this shortly...

Please also see end of January/February forecast that was added on the 21st January 2013 in the text below:

End of January/February forecast

There is a possibility of a less cold end to January and the early part of February on the assumption of some model suggestions, and this is what other forecasters will be picking up on at present. However, I still expect a return to colder conditions with major snow events throughout February, even if these changes do occur. The sudden and attempted invasions from the Atlantic may bring some less cold conditions at times, but with further periods of sleet and snow too.

However, the influence of the Atlantic is not likely to be strong enough to shift the current cold and wintry conditions that are in place across the UK throughout this forecasting period. Some of these snow events are also likely to be similar in nature to what we have experienced throughout January already, or possibly worse in scale during this forecasting period. It is therefore, likely that we will see a dominating continuation of the cold and wintry conditions up until at least mid-month/the final third of February at the very least. The remainder of the month may then see a potential shift in this pattern (especially across southern parts of the UK). However, parts of the north and Scotland may be prone to a continuation of wintry weather and cooler conditions throughout the vast majority of the whole month. It must, however, be noted that forecasting confidence has always been very low for this part of the forecasting period, and the alternative scenario with as much weighting could see a similar pattern to January 2010 developing across many parts of the country.

January 2010 - Courtesy of NASA

The original winter forecasts for this forecasting period stated:

February 2013 - February may see a potential shift in this pattern after a very cold and exceptionally snowy start to the month. However, confidence is very low for this forecasting period and the alternative scenario with as much weighting could see a similar pattern to January 2010 developing across many parts of the country (Issued 23rd June 2012)

http://www.exactaweather.com/uploads/PW2012-13.pdf

February Snowfall - The major snow events are most likely to occur throughout the period from the 1st to the 10th February (especially in some northern and southern parts of the country). However, parts of the north and Scotland may be prone to a continuation of wintry/snow showers throughout the vast majority of the whole month. (Issued 9th November 2012)

Also includes successful major snow dates for January

http://www.exactaweather.com/uploads/FinalSRT1213.pdf

Please also allow for some deviations in exact timing and scale of given scenarios.

Update added: Monday 21^st January 2013 16:11

James Madden (UK Long-Range Forecaster)

Added: Sunday 27^th January 2013 – 20:29

Remaining very cold with snow for large parts of the country + persistent freezing fog

2013-01-13T13:13:00.002-08:00

Remaining very cold with snow for large parts of the country + persistent freezing fog

As we head into the new working week, the picture is set to remain very cold with periods of snow for large parts of the country. There will also be consistent widespread frosts as temperatures fall widely below freezing for many during the evenings. Some of these frosts will also be severe at times by midweek, with the possibility of temperatures exceeding double negative figures in places. Persistent freezing fog will also be another issue to watch out for, but especially more so in northern and central parts of the country by midweek.

Monday will see sleet and snow affecting many parts of the country. There will also be some rain in amongst this wintry weather in places, but this is less likely in areas to the north and east of the country. Parts of eastern Scotland/England are most at risk for the heaviest of the snow and in particular, parts of north-east England. There could be several centimetres of snow to lower levels in some eastern parts of the country, which will give some lasting accumulations as the snow settles under the colder conditions at present.

Tuesday will bring additional sleet and snow across parts of the east and south-east England. Some of this snow is also likely to give some further moderate to heavy falls of snow in these parts, but especially more so across higher ground. This will once again give some lasting accumulations in these parts. Some further wintry showers are also likely across parts to the north and west at times, with the possibility of some accumulations in these parts too, but especially more so across higher ground.

Wednesday and into Thursday will see some further wintry showers in some northern and eastern parts of the country at times. This will also give some further accumulations of snow in places, but especially more so across higher ground. It will also become generally drier for most at this point, although some areas will be hampered by persistent freezing fog that will struggle to lift throughout the daytime too.

The latter part of the working week and into next weekend will see the risk of some significant snowfall to large parts of the country. The areas most at risk from this span widely from Scotland, northern England, Northern Ireland, Wales, and later to parts of central, and southern England too. Some localised and notable accumulations are possible, and there is also likely to be a continuation of wintry showers in some eastern parts of the country at times too. It will also become very windy at times within this forecasting period (especially in parts to the north, west, and some central areas too), which may produce some potentially dangerous blizzard conditions at times in these parts.

Next update will follow shortly...

Our detailed snow risk and final winter forecast (60 days ahead) stated:

The major snow events are likely throughout the period of the 10th to the 20th January (especially in northern, eastern, and southern parts) @
http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Premium_Forecast.html

Additional SNOW & COLD Weather updates also available @
http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html

Snow & Cold Update

2013-01-11T10:31:00.002-08:00

Remainder of January & February 2013 PDF report now only £3 (50% off) + UK/IRE Spring 2013 Forecast (March, April, and May) here

**NEW** Snow forecast page for winter 2012/13 here

Snow & Cold Update

Although we have seen a very mild start to January, there is a high-risk scenario that the developing cold spell could become much longer in duration than the models have been anticipating. If this becomes the case as expected in my original long-range winter forecast, we could be looking at a scenario similar to the December 2010 cold spell at the very least (which was the coldest December in 100 years). This also fits in with the wording of my original forecast (issued on the 23rd June 2012), which stated “with the possibility of some of the coldest and snowiest conditions in at least a century AT TIMES, more probable in the January period of the upcoming winter”. These conditions are also likely to persist into the first third of February at the very least if this proves to be the case.

http://www.exactaweather.com/uploads/PW2012-13.pdf (Original Winter Forecast 12/13 - Issued 23rd June 2012)

We also forecast the coldest December in 100 years before any suggestions from elsewhere (August/September 2010) and featured on BBC One TV for our prediction.

Another interesting article below on our coldest December in 100 years prediction

http://www.emergentwisdom.com/other-musings/37-science/50-sir-paul-nurse-abandons-scientific-principles-on-becoming-president-of-royal-society.html

“But even earlier than Weather Action, James Madden of Exacta Weather, AKA ukweathergeek, using similar models as Weather Action, posted a youtube video on 18^th September – over a month earlier than the Met office confirming ‘no clear signals’ about the weather for the UK winter – explaining in detail why he expected the 2010/2011 winter to be more severe than 2009/2010”

There will also be plenty of widespread and major snow events within this period, but it will also become relatively dry for this forecasting period too (next few weeks and into early February). However, the snowfall (some very heavy in places) is likely to result in lying snow on the ground and lasting accumulations for quite some time under these conditions.

Next week is likely to remain very cold across the country with the development of some severe and widespread frosts throughout the whole week. In terms of snowfall, it is quite probable that next week will bring snowfall to large parts of the country, with some decent accumulations in places, but especially more so in northern and eastern parts to begin with. There is also likely to be some further notable falls of snow and accumulations in parts of central and southern England at times throughout next week too. It will also become exceptionally foggy at times (especially in parts of the Midlands and the south). The freezing fog is also likely to become quite dense and potentially dangerous in these parts, as it struggles to lift and becomes rather persistent throughout the day too.

Our detailed snow risk and final winter forecast (60 days ahead) stated:

The major snow events are likely throughout the period of the 10th to the 20th January (especially in northern, eastern, and southern parts) @
http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Premium_Forecast.html

Next update will follow shortly...

Please also see our snow risk forecast page below:

http://www.exactaweather.com/Snow_Forecast_Page.html

Update added: 11^th January 2013 (11:51am)

Changes on the way with snow and cold, as we return to winter

2013-01-06T10:24:00.003-08:00

Changes on the way with snow and cold, as we return to winter

As we approach the middle part of the new working week, the picture is set to turn much cooler than of late across the country. This will lead to the development of some widespread frosts and icy patches in places from Wednesday onwards. The cooler temperatures will also be accompanied by some rather foggy conditions at times during the evenings too, but especially more so across some northern and central areas of the country. The fog may also struggle to lift and become quite persistent at times in these parts throughout the day and into next weekend too.

As we approach the end of the working week and head into next weekend, the risk of wintry precipitation and snow showers will increase significantly. Friday will see the development of these first wintry showers across some northern and eastern parts of the country, but especially more so across higher ground to begin with. The weekend will then see a continuation of the cold conditions and widespread frosts, which will once again be accompanied by some rather foggy conditions (some freezing fog in places). This will also bring a continued risk of snow, but especially more so across parts of the north, east, and south-east of the country. Some of these snow showers may also push into other parts of the country throughout next weekend too (especially throughout Saturday evening and into Sunday).

Please also feel free to check out the short range forecast for your area, which is continuously updated at regular intervals throughout each day on the basis of weather model suggestions

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Short_Range_Forecast.html

The Spring 2013 (March, April, May) is also now available to subscribers in the link below
http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Premium_Forecast.html

So what does the remainder of this winter hold for the UK and Ireland?

2012-12-26T13:23:00.000-08:00

Winter 2012/13 Weather Forecast Update

December 2012

The first half of December began on a very cold note for much of the country, it also brought periods of snow to parts of the UK including the south, along with blizzard conditions to parts of the north within the given time frame as suggested in the early November forecast release.

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/weather-snow-across-london-cold-snap-073342389.html#EJlEVhJ

The remainder of December has been largely dominated across many areas by rain and strong winds from Atlantic low pressure systems. Even though our original December forecasts (produced in June and early November) stated that a period of moderation couldn't be ruled out around mid-month, with the potential for some extremely windy and wet conditions to develop, the Atlantic themed regime has been far more dominant than expected for this particular forecasting period (hence the wetter than average conditions, rather than drier than average). This part of the forecast has therefore proved unsuccessful on this occasion. However, can others please take into consideration how far ahead these forecasts are issued in comparison to others, and the disclaimer statement about deviations and exact timing of scenarios that is attached to them.

Had the colder conditions from Eastern Europe developed as our forecast and many others expected it to (including the BBC and Met Office), we would have been looking at a similar scenario to December 2010 or worse (the coldest December in 100 years), which was also forecast by myself in January 2010 and August 2010 (11 months and 5 months ahead of the event occurring – please see forecast archives and accuracy @

http://www.exactaweather.com/Accuracy.html.

Mean temperatures for December 2012 were almost -3C below the seasonal average up until this point of change too.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/2012/12/the-beast-from-the-east-is-lur.shtml

http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/355056/Britain-set-to-freeze-in-long-Arctic-winter

http://news.sky.com/story/1022049/snow-alert-cold-weather-beast-to-hit-uk

Claims from the media and headlines in reference to “THE COLDEST WINTER IN 100 YEARS” were also immediately corrected on our behalf, on the date they was released. The archived posts are available to view in the following link below dated 17^th November 2012:

http://globalcoolingnewiceageuk.blogspot.co.uk/2012/11/potential-for-some-of-coldest-and.html

A separate posting from ourselves was also made on the 19^th November 2012 in the BBC Paul Hudson blog titled “What's behind the coldest winter for 100 years headline?”

http://globalcoolingnewiceageuk.blogspot.co.uk/2012/11/paul-hudson-bbc-blog-post.html

(Please see comments section (number 14) from James Madden of Exacta Weather in the BBC link below.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/2012/11/whats-behind-the-coldest-winte.shtml

The same information as above was also posted in updates to our followers on Twitter and Facebook on the same dates as above.

Just for the record, our forecast actually stated “with the POSSIBILITY of some of the coldest and snowiest conditions in at least a century AT TIMES”, somewhat different to the coldest winter in 100 years. It also stated that this was most likely to occur in the December to January period of the upcoming 2012/13 winter.

So what does the remainder of this winter hold for the UK and Ireland?

January and February 2013

In the short term, the Atlantic themed regime looks likely to persist for the first third of January or up until around the mid-month point at the very least. This is likely to bring a mixed bag of mild, wet, and windy weather, with some interspersions of colder weather at times too. This topsy-turvy weather pattern is also likely to result in a number of snow events too, but especially more so across some northern parts of the country. However, as we progress throughout the remainder of January and into the start of February, it is likely that it will become progressively colder, even severely cold at times (especially across northern and eastern parts of the country). This is also likely to bring a number of major snow events across the country during this period, which also includes areas to the south.

Little or no amendment is therefore required to the remainder of our detailed 2012/13 winter and snow risk dates forecast that is available to subscribers in the link below for this given period. We also expect these conditions to persist into the start of spring 2013, with the potential for some record-breaking weather at times in terms of snow, cold, and warm spells too (also available to subscribers in the link below).

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Premium_Forecast.html

Please also feel free to check out the short range section for you area, which are continuously updated at regular intervals throughout each day

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Short_Range_Forecast.html

Update added: 26^th December 2012 (20:15)

Christmas Week - Snow Forecast

2012-12-24T17:40:00.000-08:00

Christmas Week – Snow Forecast

As we head into Christmas Day, there will be some sleet and snow showers at times across higher ground in parts of Scotland. There is also a possibility that some of these sleet and snow showers may also extend into parts of northern England across higher ground as we progress throughout the day and into Christmas Day evening. So unlike last year, there will be an official white Christmas on the cards for some, and although it may only be a flake or two in some locations, this is all that is required to typically define what a white Christmas is and for those who have placed bets.

Boxing Day will bring a cooler day for most, especially in parts of the north. Some further wintry precipitation and snow showers are also likely to develop once again across parts of Scotland as we progress throughout the day and into the evening, especially across higher ground. Boxing Day evening will also see the development of a widespread frost under clearer skies, but especially more so in some northern and central parts of the country.

Thursday will bring a rather cold day for most with some further sleet and snow showers across higher ground in parts of the north, in particular in parts of Scotland and north-east Scotland where some moderate accumulations of snow can’t be ruled out. Another widespread frost is also likely to develop in places during Thursday evening, leading to the development of some icy patches in places as we head into the early part of Friday. However, Friday is likely to be a milder day overall for many with some outbreaks of rain to the west of the country. Some of these showers are also likely to turn initially wintry at times, especially across higher ground in parts of the north.

As we head into the Christmas week weekend, the risk of snow looks set to significantly increase to other parts of the country too. Saturday is likely to see any wintry weather being more confined to parts of the north across higher ground, but as we progress throughout the day and into Sunday, we could also initially see some snow showers developing across parts of northern England, Northern Ireland, and into parts of Wales too.

Added: 13:57pm 24th December 2012

Merry Christmas!

Special Winter Update 2012/13

2012-12-21T09:22:00.001-08:00

*Special Winter Update*

The current mean CET is -1.4C below the seasonal average for December.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Had the beast from the east developed as many others also expected, we would have been looking at a similar scenario to December 2010 (mean temps were almost -3C below average at this point).

http://news.sky.com/story/1022049/snow-alert-cold-weather-beast-to-hit-uk

However, we did also state in our early November forecast that:

"a brief period of moderation can’t be ruled out about mid-month (normal winter conditions), with the potential for some EXTREMELY WINDY conditions to develop at times",

Although this period of moderation has been less brief than originally anticipated, it certainly has been extremely windy for this forecasting period as suggested.
The Met Office also forecast cold to very cold for December after our forecast was issued
Claims from the Met Office about this winter in the link below about their supercomputers being more accurate than ever in October (after our original winter forecast was issued), that the tax-payer has funded.
http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/355056/Britain-set-to-freeze-in-long-Arctic-winter

Exacta Weather does not receive any kind of government/public funding whatsoever, yet our long-range forecasts and methodology proves far more successful than the waste of space number crunchers! Please see link below:

http://www.exactaweather.com/Accuracy.html

Winter is also far from over (January & February), and we also expect potentially record-breaking conditions during the (spring 2013) period too @
http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Premium_Forecast.html
Added: 21^st December 2012

13th December 2012 Update

2012-12-13T02:10:00.000-08:00

Thursday will begin on another chilly note for most parts before low pressure begins to move gradually eastwards. With the cooler air still in place across the UK, this will bring the risk of some heavy snow at times across higher ground in parts of the north, with the risk of some lighter sleet and snow showers to some lower levels too. As we head into Friday the low pressure and weather fronts will continue to move eastwards, although these are likely to become quite slow-moving. This is likely to bring some further snow showers across higher ground in the north, with the risk of some further sleet and snow showers to some lower levels of the country too, but especially more so across higher ground in parts as far south as the Midlands/southern England.

Elsewhere will then see the development of some rather wet and very windy conditions as we head into the weekend. This will also bring some much milder conditions to parts of the south, and although parts of the north will be milder than of late too, it will still feel chilly with the continued risk of some wintry precipitation, especially across higher ground.

However, it won’t be long before the cold and wintry weather begins to establish itself across the country quite widely once again.

The original and detailed December outlook that was made available on the 9^thNovember 2012 to subscribers also stated:

"A brief period of moderation can’t be ruled out about mid-month (normal winter conditions), with the potential for some extremely windy conditions to develop at times"

Update added: Thursday 13th December 2012 - New update will be added shortly

For a more detailed outlook for the remainder of December, January, February, and spring 2013 please see:

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Premium_Forecast.html

Please also see the short range section for your area that is continuously updated at regular intervals throughout each day on the basis of model suggestions:

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Short_Range_Forecast.html

Thursday will see snowfall across higher ground in parts of Scotland, in particular in parts of southern Scotland. It will also be quite chilly in these parts with the potential for some blizzard conditions to develop at times. By Friday further sleet and snow showers will become more prominent in parts of eastern Scotland. It will also feel much cooler in parts of the north throughout Friday too.

As we head into the weekend, we will see a continuation of wintry weather across Scotland. There will once again be the potential for some blizzard conditions to develop again across higher ground, and it will also feel much colder for most parts of the UK too, especially in parts of the north (excluding the far south). The wintry weather is more likely to be confined to the east in these parts on Saturday too. Sunday will bring further snow across higher ground in parts of Scotland, with the potential for some moderate to heavy falls of snow at times. There may also be the potential risk of some sleet and snow showers across higher ground in parts of northern England and to the east of the country throughout the course of this weekend and into next week too.

Update added: Thursday 20th December 2012 - New update will be added shortly

For a more detailed outlook for the remainder of December, January, February, and spring 2013 please see (includes free white Christmas snow forecast):

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Premium_Forecast.html

You can also enter our FREE white Christmas 2012 competition to win a scientific weather station in the link below:

http://www.exactaweather.com/-New__White_Christmas.html

UK Snow Forecast

2012-12-10T07:57:00.000-08:00

Snow Forecast Page – Winter 2012/13

This page will be updated at regular intervals throughout the winter 12/13 period to highlight and forecast the risk of snow.

The start to the new working week will see cold air from the east bringing much cooler conditions across the country. This will also bring widespread evening frosts, freezing fog, and icy patches in places. Some of these conditions could also become potentially dangerous and quite severe at times, especially in parts of the north and Scotland in particular (temperatures may exceed double negative figures during the evenings at times in these parts). There will also be a continuation of snow showers across parts of the north, eastern England, and parts of the south-east of England too.

As we progress throughout the later part of this week and into next weekend, it looks increasingly likely that we will see some slightly milder weather arriving, as fronts push in from the Atlantic. With this comes the risk of snow, as they move eastwards across most parts of the country. This particular weather event could also prove to be potentially significant in terms of snowfall across certain parts of the country. There is also the potential risk for some disruption to the public transport network at times, but especially more so in parts of Scotland, northern England, eastern England, central England, and some parts of the south too.

However, this period of snow may also be preceded by rain in areas; it will also become quite windy at times too.

The original and detailed December outlook and snow risk forecast that was made available on the 9^thNovember 2012 to subscribers also stated:

“The risk of snowfall will remain with much of the country throughout the month, but especially more so throughout the period of the 15^th to the 23^rd December, in particular around the 15^th and 16^thDecember”

"However, a brief period of moderation can’t be ruled out about mid-month (normal winter conditions), with the potential for some extremely windy conditions to develop at times"

It also stated:

“Please allow for some deviations in exact timing and scale of given scenarios”

For a more detailed outlook for the remainder of December, January, February, and spring 2013 please see:

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Premium_Forecast.html

Please also see the short range section for your area that is continuously updated at regular intervals throughout each day on the basis of model suggestions:

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Short_Range_Forecast.html

Update added: Monday 10th December 2012 - New update will be added shortly

Paul Hudson BBC Blog Post

2012-11-20T04:10:00.000-08:00

Firstly, Exacta Weather is very pleased that this BBC blog and Paul emphasised on the HEADLINE of the newspaper from Saturday about the "coldest winter in 100 years".

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/2012/11/whats-behind-the-coldest-winte.shtml

This was also corrected on our Facebook page, dated blog, and our loyal followers were also alerted with tweets on twitter. We also absolutely agree that headlines sell newspapers, but unfortunately we do not write or have any influence on the headlines that sell them. We personally can't see many people rushing out to buy a copy of something that was less appealing in nature.

Our forecast actually states and always has since earlier this year (23rd June 2012 - First Issued) that: There is the potential for some of the coldest and snowiest conditions in at least a century AT TIMES during the upcoming winter (most likely to occur in the December to January period).

Somewhat different to the COLDEST WINTER IN 100 YEARS!

Our recently released private forecast from the 9th November 2012 also states:

There is also the potential for some of the coldest and snowiest conditions in at least a century AT TIMES to be recorded in the December to January period of the upcoming winter. The January period is also slightly more favourable to experience the worst of the winter conditions in terms of snowfall and temperatures.

We also expect February to be much milder after a potentially cold and snowy start to the month, which is also an official month of the meteorological winter.

As for Mr Hudson’s comments about "little known Exacta Weather" and "a tiny private weather company", people are free to judge this for themselves in the following links below:

http://www.journallive.co.uk/north-east-news/todays-news/2010/12/08/voluntary-forecaster-proves-the-met-office-wrong-again-61634-27786536/

http://www.exactaweather.com/Accuracy.html

http://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/exactaweather.com#

Last year’s forecast may have contained unusually low accuracy in comparison to our usual success rate, but this is something that we have quite openly admitted to on many occasions. However, we certainly was correct about the winds that the Met Office failed to miss and also send out a relevant warning for

http://www.scotsman.com/scotland-on-sunday/scotland/forecast-is-grim-for-the-met-office-but-are-they-at-fault-for-missing-big-gail-1-2043601

For the others who have decided to contact us about the glorious summer that never happened

http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/321080/Glorious-summer-is-on-way

Fortunately, this had nothing to do with us and we played no part in the production of this forecast or the headline, but it is funny how we get the blame and constantly reminded about this too (it works both ways Mr Hudson).

However, a more accurate piece from early summer dated the 15th June 2012 actually stated:

“James Madden, of Exacta Weather, said the rest of the summer would be “unsettled” as long as the jet stream – which is responsible for the washout – refuses to budge.” (Exactly what happened)

http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/326685/Summer-starts-in-September

James Madden - From little known Exacta Weather & a tiny private weather company that has consistently proven the Met Office wrong on many occasions with their incorrect long range forecasts of mild winters and BBQ summers!

Potential for some of the coldest and snowiest conditions in at least a century AT TIMES...

2012-11-17T03:07:00.000-08:00

There is also the potential for some of the coldest and snowiest conditions in at least a century AT TIMES to be recorded in the December to January period of the upcoming winter. The January period is also slightly more favorable to experience the worst of the winter conditions in terms of snowfall and temperatures.

Snippet from snow risk dates and temperature forecast available (Produced and made available on 9th November 2012) @http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Premium_Forecast.html

October & November Forecasts 2012

2012-11-04T17:48:00.000-08:00

October
October is likely to feature near or below-average temperatures as a whole, although some interspersions of milder weather are also likely to develop at times especially in the southern half of the country. A number of frequent wet and very windy or exceptionally windy periods are also likely to develop for many parts of the country at times too. The cooler periods of weather will also see the development of some overnight frosts in places. These cooler periods will also be accompanied by the first falls of snow and some wintry showers in places, especially across higher ground in parts of the north as we progress throughout October.

Result = First falls of snow as predicted + a mean Central England Temperature (CET) of -1.0C
November
November is likely to feature below-average temperatures as a whole. It is likely to become progressively colder as we progress throughout the month and into the start of winter, with the development of some quite severe frosts in places. These cooler periods of weather will be accompanied by further falls of snow across higher ground, and these are also likely to develop across some lower levels of the country at times too. It is also likely to be a relatively drier month overall in terms of rainfall amounts. However, some further periods of wet and windy weather are still probable to develop at times too.

Result = Pending...
The long range winter forecast for 2012/13 that was published on the 23rd June 2012 also stated:

1. A number of exceptional and unusually strong windy periods are also likely to develop at times throughout the upcoming autumn and winter period. Some of these winds could also prove to be very damaging and potentially record-breaking in places.

2. The cold and wintry conditions are also likely to arrive earlier this year i.e. in autumn.

Also stay tuned to the 4-day forecasts that are continuously updated on model suggestions at regular intervals throughout each day. Thank you for visiting Exacta Weather.

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Short_Range_Forecast.html

Added: 1st October 2012 16:22PM on ExactaWeather.com

The Remainder Of Summer + Summer Review

2012-08-03T00:03:00.002-07:00

The Remainder Of Summer + Summer Review

The summer to date has been largely dominated by low pressure due to a displacement of the jet stream. In Layman's terms, this has allowed some extremely wet and unusually windy weather to hamper many parts of the country over a prolonged period of time throughout this summer.

The following news article from the start of summer also stated:

James Madden, of Exacta Weather, said the rest of summer would be “unsettled” as long as the jet stream – which is responsible for the washout – refuses to budge.

(Daily Express – Friday 15^th June 2012 here)

There has also been a large number of flooding events across the country throughout this summer too. The exact timing for the first of these major flooding events was slightly out by a few weeks in terms of my original long range summer forecast. However, we must allow for some standard deviations in weather forecasting and consider that this statement was originally made in February. The forecasting suggestions of flooding from the later part of July onwards still hold some validity, due to some further heavy and potentially thundery downpours that are likely to develop in places over the coming weeks. However, I did manage to recognise the potential for some of these flooding events to arrive earlier and highlighted on this within my weekly and monthly forecasts (also see Floods, Floods & More Floods – Issued 29^th June 2012 here).

The following news article also stated:

James Madden, of Exacta Weather, warned heavy rain and the risk of severe flooding would continue into next week. (Daily Express – Saturday 30^th June 2012 here)

BBC News – Floods as torrential rain hits UK (6^th July 2012)

August also looks like repeating a similar trend, for the most part, although a major pattern change to warmer and drier weather for many is still possible in the later part of this month and into September. However, forecasting confidence has only ever been of medium range for this pattern shift to occur. The alternative and less likely scenario is for a continuation of the cooler and unsettled pattern with a few nice days thrown in here and there until early September. If this pattern shift does occur as my original summer forecast issued in February suggests, then many parts of the country can look forward to a decent run of prolonged sunny spells and very warm temperatures. It may even turn extremely warm in the southern half of the country at times. The August Central England Temperature (CET) is also more probable to come in at more near or possibly above average if this shift occurs too.

Regardless of a possible pattern change to drier and warmer later in the month, a major point is that we have still experienced another cool and exceptionally wet summer as a whole. Another summer of this magnitude is something that I have emphasised on strongly since very early this year. To date, June and July have been exceptionally wet, but they have also been rather cool too. The mean CET was -0.6 below average for June, and -0.5 below average for July. Now I often refer to the CET, as it is a key indicator of climate change. Regardless of those who say it only covers a small area (usually the warmists during cooler summers and winters); the fact still remains that this is the oldest recorded temperature dataset in the world (over 350 years old). The CET is also a statistically useful indicator for a much wider area, as it can be applicable as an agent for northern hemisphere temperatures too.

I also stated in my original summer forecast issued in February that:

If we were to experience another summer of similar magnitude to the latter, then some serious scientific acknowledgement will be required as to where our future climate is actually heading, especially over the coming years (27^th February 2012).

I also stated in the same forecast that:

I firmly believe that the UK has now entered a long term pattern of cooler wetter summers and more severe winters (27^th February 2012).

My main concern lies with my forecasting parameters, which suggest that cooler wetter summers and colder snowier winters will become the norm for us now, not all of them, but the vast majority of them. We must also consider other important factors such as reduced growing seasons and the problems this will create for agriculture, for which we will need to start making adaptations for.

All of these statements was made by myself, when Royal weather experts and many other forecasters were suggesting a summer of drought and scorching temperatures. The last of the hosepipe bans were also lifted recently too. These are also the same forecasting parameters that have been used within the production of the long range 2012/13 winter weather forecast.

Original Summer Forecast – Issued 27^th February 2012 here

We are likely to see a continuation of this cooler and wetter trend for the summer as a whole

I also suggest another cool and possibly flood riddled summer

Start of Meteorological Summer + June – Issued 22^nd May 2012 here

I expect the Central England Temperature to come in at below average for June

Rest of Summer - Issued June 14^th 2012 here

The remainder of summer is likely to remain largely unsettled due to the jet stream being pushed much further south than normal. This displacement of the jet stream allows unseasonably cool and very wet weather to dominate the scene over much of the country.

July + Major Flooding UK – Issued 20^th June 2012 here

I expect the Central England Temperature to come in at below average for July

August + Olympics Forecast – Issued 20^th July 2012 here

UK Winter 2012/13 Forecast - 3 page PDF report (Dec,Jan,Feb) available here

Floods, Floods & More Floods?

2012-06-28T23:40:00.000-07:00

Floods, Floods & More Floods?

After further flash flooding across parts of England and northern England yesterday, the remainder of this week and into next week will also offer no real respite in these unsettled conditions. The brief period of much warmer temperatures turned out to be relatively short-lived, and temperatures will now begin to ease towards more near or below the seasonal average for most. Friday will begin on a generally drier note for most. Outbreaks of rain and blustery showers will also develop and become more widespread throughout the day, especially in some parts of Scotland and northern England. It will also be quite windy and generally cloudy throughout today too. There may be the occasional period of sunshine in between these showers and cloudiness, but the best of any decent sunshine and drier weather will occur in some parts of southern/south-east England.

The weekend will see a bit more of a mixed picture developing. It will also initially remain quite unsettled across parts of Scotland and northern England. There will also be some further showery outbreaks of rain for many throughout Saturday, especially in parts of Scotland, northern England and Wales. Some of these showers are once again likely to turn quite heavy and potentially thundery in places throughout Saturday too. It will also be generally cloudy and quite windy at times throughout the day, making it feel much fresher than of late for most. However, it will be drier throughout some southern and eastern parts on Saturday, and the best of any decent sunshine and warmer temperatures will once again occur in these parts. Sunday may shape up a little better in terms of some developing sunny periods, especially in some parts of southern England and Wales. However, cloudiness and some further showery outbreaks of rain are likely to develop in places. Some of these showers could once again turn quite heavy in places, especially in some parts of the north.

Looking ahead to later next week, and the picture looks set to turn very unsettled again. Another area of low pressure looks set to bring a further period of very wet and windy weather to many parts of the country. Unfortunately, some of this rain is likely to turn very heavy and persistent in places again. This is of particular concern as many parts of the country have recently experienced some very high levels of rainfall, and with the already high river and water levels that we are seeing from this at present, there is a potentially high-risk of some further severe disruption from flash flooding in many parts of the country throughout next week.

July + Major Flooding Possible (As forecast in February 2012)

2012-06-19T22:20:00.000-07:00

July + Major Flooding Possible (As forecast in February 2012)

As we head into July, we are likely to experience a continuation of very unsettled weather types across many parts of the country. July will also replicate June in many ways, as it will once again be dominated by periods of cool and very wet weather across many parts, with a noticeable reduction in normal temperatures in many places for the time of the year. I also expect the Central England Temperature (CET) to come in at below-average for July too.

Now although we have already experienced a number of flooding events in places throughout the start of the meteorological summer so far, I also suggested the most prone time frame for any such major flooding occurrences (based on my own personal methodology, calculations & science).

Key points from my summer 2012 forecast – issued in February 2012

So in terms of this summer and based on the parameters that I consider, we are likely to see a continuation of this cooler and wetter trend for the summer as a whole.
The summer is likely to be hampered by periods of relatively cool and very wet weather at times.
I also suggest another cool and possibly flood riddled summer.
My forecasting parameters suggest that the most prone time frame for any such flash flooding occurrences this summer are between the latter part of July and through to September.

YouTube Summer Forecast 2012 - (Issued 27th Feb 2012)

Unfortunately, that prone period still concerns me much more than June in regard to a possible string of major flooding occurrences across the country. If we allow for a standard deviation of a week or two from the given dates above and how far back my summer forecast was actually issued, from around mid-July onwards we are likely to be at significant risk of experiencing some very heavy rain deluges and exceptional flooding across the country. This unsettled weather will also be accompanied by some strong winds at times throughout this period too.

Rest of summer – Another cold one?

2012-06-14T18:21:00.000-07:00

Rest of summer – Another cold one?

The remainder of summer is likely to remain largely unsettled due to the jet stream being pushed much further south than normal. This displacement of the jet stream allows unseasonably cool and very wet weather to dominate the scene over much of the country. This dominant pattern is also why the country experienced a record-breaking cold and wet summer during last year (as forecast in January 2011), when all three months of summer came in at below-average in terms of temperature. This is in part due to the continued low levels of solar activity and how it also intrinsically alters major factors such as cloud coverage. Weak solar activity is also influential on predominantly negative phases of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).

There is the potential for a possible shift in this pattern as we progress throughout August and into September, which could result in some warm or very warm periods of weather at times within these months (forecasting confidence is medium range). However, if a pattern shift does not occur throughout the final summer month of August, then we will be facing a summer of similar magnitude to last year in terms of temperature or colder.

This is also why I stated in my original summer forecast in February “I also don't want to go as far as saying that the summer will be as cold as last year, but I also don't want to rule out a similar scenario unfolding either.”

Start of Summer 2012 + The Coldest May in 100 years

2012-06-02T22:45:00.000-07:00

Start of Summer 2012

The start of the meteorological summer has seen a marked drop in temperatures and a return to more unsettled weather in comparison to the warm and sunny and weather that we experienced in the later part of May.

(Please see original summer forecast issued in Feb 2012 below/archives & original June forecast issued in May 2012 below/archives)

The Coldest May in 100 years

Firstly, this claim/prediction never came from myself or Exacta Weather. My original May forecast also stated that temperatures were more likely to be near-average or below-average for the May period too. Now even though the warmer weather that we experienced in the latter part of May was much more extensive and prolonged than myself and most other forecasters (who have any shred of honesty towards their readers) had originally anticipated, it could have quite easily of gone the other way too.

Temperatures were almost 2C below-average until the final part of May, hence the reasoning behind my original prediction for near-average or below-average temperatures as a whole for the May period. My original spring forecast also stated the potential for some warmer and sunnier periods of weather at times as we progressed throughout the May period too (issued almost three months ago). Now although the coldest May in 100 years headlines proved to be incorrect for a certain forecaster, I am also not aware of any headlines or long term predictions from the Met Office that appeared to indicate a mini heatwave for the latter part of spring either.

In a nutshell, we are currently in a rather disordered period of time that will bring some difficulties to certain aspects of weather forecasting/computer models, due to the magnetic changes that are occurring within the sun and here on Earth. These factors also have an important bearing on earthquake and volcanic activity as covered in my earlier archived posts and videos. The general theme for the coming years and decades will still largely consist of cooler wetter summers/colder snowier winters for the UK. However, some people will still try to lay false claims in predicting the warmer weather that occurred in May, whereas others such as those with (warmist agendas) will utilise this and any future periods of warmer weather to their full advantage, whilst they still have the ability to do so.

Queen's Diamond Jubilee – Extended Bank Holiday Weekend Weather

2012-06-02T22:39:00.002-07:00

Queen's Diamond Jubilee – Extended Bank Holiday Weekend Weather

The Queen's Diamond Jubilee is also looking like a relatively unsettled and rather cool affair as a whole throughout the extended bank holiday weekend.

Sunday will begin on a chilly note across Scotland and parts of Northern England. It will also be particularly cloudy and quite windy in many parts, with the best of any drier and brighter weather more likely to feature in western parts of Scotland and the far south-west. Some of these showers will also become particularly heavy and persistent at times in parts of central and southern England, Wales, and into some lower regions of northern England too. It will be a cold day across most parts for the time of the year, with a chilly night to follow (especially across the north).

Monday will therefore begin chilly across most parts and feature well below-average temperatures for the time of the year across many parts of the country throughout the day too. The rainfall from Sunday will continue to persist across some southern, central, and eastern parts for the start of Monday, before turning less intense later in the day. Elsewhere, will see a mixture of sunny spells/cloudiness and drier weather throughout Monday, although some showers will exist at times in some northern parts of the country too. The best of the brighter conditions are likely to develop across some parts of the north and west of the country throughout Monday.

Tuesday will once again begin chilly for the time of the year across many parts with some early mist patches in places. It will then become sunny for many parts and generally drier, although cloud and rain will build up and initially move in across southern England and Wales. Some of these showers/rain may also turn particularly heavy in places throughout Tuesday. Elsewhere, will see a general theme of sunny spells and cloudiness throughout the day, with some further outbreaks of scattered showers in places too.

Global Cooling & New Ice Age UK

Unsettled Then Warmer (as forecast over 200 days in advance) + Important Climate Change/CET Update

Unsettled with periods of very windy weather and rain + warmer weather on the horizon

Remaining cold and wintry into April + spring warmth at last? – as forecast 150 days ahead

Remaining cold and wintry for Easter week - Record-breaking March now very likely

Cold and windy, with a significant risk of snow for many parts throughout next week + successful snow risk dates? & March Forecast (30 & 140 days ahead)

Winter returns in spring as promised over 130 days ahead

Cold end to winter + winter set to continue into spring + snow risk dates

A return to winter by the end of the week and into early February?

Remaining very cold with snow for large parts of the country + persistent freezing fog

Snow & Cold Update

Changes on the way with snow and cold, as we return to winter

So what does the remainder of this winter hold for the UK and Ireland?

Christmas Week - Snow Forecast

*Special Winter Update* 2012/13

13th December 2012 Update

UK Snow Forecast

Paul Hudson BBC Blog Post

Potential for some of the coldest and snowiest conditions in at least a century AT TIMES...

October & November Forecasts 2012

The Remainder Of Summer + Summer Review

Floods, Floods & More Floods?

July + Major Flooding Possible (As forecast in February 2012)

Rest of summer – Another cold one?

Start of Summer 2012 + The Coldest May in 100 years

Queen's Diamond Jubilee – Extended Bank Holiday Weekend Weather

Special Winter Update 2012/13