Global Economic Intersection Analysis Blog Feed

Misinformation: Strategic Sharing, Homophily, And Endogenous Echo Chambers

Fri, 27 Aug 2021 01:42:48 CDT

by Daron Acemoglu

-- this post authored by Daron Acemoglu, Asuman Ozdaglar, and James Siderius, Vox eu.org

Misinformation spreads rapidly on social media platforms. This column uses a model of online content-sharing to show that a social media platform that wishes to maximise content engagement will propagate extreme articles amongst its most extremist users. 'Filter bubbles' prevent the content from spreading beyond its extremist demographic, creating 'echo chambers' in which misinformation circulates. The threat of censorship and a corresponding loss in engagement could pressure platforms to fact-check themselves, while regulating their algorithms could mitigate the consequences of filter bubbles.

Understated Inflation Produces 'Unreal' GDP Growth Double Real Growth

Thu, 26 Aug 2021 23:15:57 CDT

Written by Rick Davis, Consumer Metrics Institute

BEA Revises Second Quarter 2021 GDP Growth Upward to 6.56%

In their second estimate of the US GDP for the second quarter of 2021, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the US economy was growing at a +6.56% annual rate, up 0.06 percentage points (pp) from their previous estimate and up 0.28pp from the prior quarter.

Fiscal Austerity Intensifies The Increase In Inequality After Pandemics

Wed, 25 Aug 2021 01:29:25 CDT

from Voxeu.org

-- this post authored by Davide Furceri, Prakash Loungani, Jonathan D. Ostry, and Pietro Pizzuto

In the aftermath of past pandemics, fiscal policy played an important role in reducing or amplifying income inequality. This column predicts the likely distributional effects of Covid-19 by analysing evidence from five previous outbreaks (SARS, H1N1, MERS, Ebola, and Zika). It finds that severe austerity measures were associated with inequality increases three times greater than expansive fiscal policy following a pandemic. Premature austerity is self-defeating from both a macro and an equity standpoint.

Buy Businesses, Not Stocks

Sun, 22 Aug 2021 01:33:12 CDT

by John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline

I write this letter on my way home from Steamboat Springs, Colorado, where I spoke to the fascinating "GoBundance" group of mostly young, successful, enthusiastic entrepreneurs.

The Cost Of Populism: Evidence From History

Sat, 21 Aug 2021 14:30:18 CDT

from Voxeu.org

-- this post authored by Manuel Funke, Moritz Schularick, and Christoph Trebesch

The rise of populism in the past two decades has motivated much work on its drivers, but less is known about its economic and political consequences.

What Makes A Disease Eradicable?

Wed, 18 Aug 2021 02:03:21 CDT

Written by Econintersect Guest

-- this post authored by Sophie Ochmann, Our World in Data

Before answering this question, it is important to understand what exactly eradication entails, especially in contrast to the elimination of a disease. While the eradication of a disease is permanent and global, the elimination of a disease is an achievement restricted to a specific geographic area such as a country or continent.

The Data Shows The Fed Is Behind The Surging Wealth Gap

Wed, 18 Aug 2021 00:51:13 CDT

by Lance Roberts, Clarity Financial

The data shows the Fed is behind the surging wealth gap. Such is despite protestations "Quantitative Easing" and "Zero Interest Rate Policy" do not affect the financial markets.

Re-Evaluating The Sources Of The Recent Productivity Slowdown

Mon, 16 Aug 2021 23:06:03 CDT

from Voxeu.org

-- this post authored by Ian Goldin, Pantelis Koutroumpis, Francois Lafond, and Julian Winkler

Labour productivity is a key determinant in improving living standards. But in recent years, productivity has stagnated, if not declined, in many countries around the world. This column re-evaluates the various reasons as to why this might be, applying three criteria to the existing explanations for the slowdown. It finds that the slowdown in productivity can be attributed to numerous factors, ranging from mismeasurement to changes in trade patterns.

Ubiquity, Complexity, And Sandpiles

Sun, 15 Aug 2021 02:23:29 CDT

"How did you go bankrupt?"
"Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly."

. ― Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises

The Evolution Of 'Big': How Sociality Made Life Larger

Sat, 14 Aug 2021 14:31:35 CDT

by Blair Fix

The game I play is a very interesting one.
It's imagination in a tight straitjacket.
- Richard Feynman

Like Richard Feynman's game of science, evolution is stuck in a straitjacket. It is driven by chance. But evolution is not free to explore every path.