Nawaz Sharif wins Pakistan elections

Bengal_Tiger — Sun, 12 May 2013 10:52:36 GMT

In this thread I will provide analysis on the Pakistani elections of 2013.

This is the first in a series of posts.

1. Punjab has chosen Pakistan's new leader, the former premier Nawaz Sharif.

2. Nawaz Sharif will ensure that Punjab will not be divided thus there will be no Saraiki province or Bahawalpur province as the PPP used to argue for, partly probably as a ruse to create a permanently pro-PPP Southern Punjab power base.

With a continued united Punjab being demographically the largest and most powerful province in the federation, Punjabi domination of the federation will continue.

3. Nawaz Sharif will be head of government but major geo-strategic, diplomatic and "national security" issues will still be controlled by his fellow Punjabi, army chief Kayani.

This includes crushing Balochi separatists, fighting tribals in FATA, Kashmir, Gilgit-Baltistan and Pakistani policy as per Afghanistan, the Arab world and many other things.

The army controls and decides Pakistani foreign policy and national security.

So whilst the face of the "leader" in Islamabad (sic) changes from Zardari to Nawaz, things will pretty much be the same as per the army and ISI deciding on what happens viz a viz tribal Pashtuns and Afghanistan.

4. Apart from a cosmetic change of face in Islamabad (sic) things are pretty much the same in the federation of Pakistan with the MQM controlling Karachi, PPP in Sindh and so forth.

The only other difference with Zardari being replaced by Nawaz is of course the fact that the ANP have lost power in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and Imran Khan's PTI are the biggest party there.

5. The PTI are a pan-Pakistani nationalist party more so than the Punjab-centric PML-N.

Pashtuns have voted for a pro-Pakistan party, Punjabis have voted for a pro-Punjabi party.

The PTI and Imran Khan (who I personally believe is by and large an honourable man) are supported by the Pakistani security services, who used their proxies amongst so-called "militants" to target the ANP and leave the Punjabi PML-N and Punjabi-led PTI alone.

Here are some of the issues facing the PTI in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa

Drones

Imran Khan's PTI has no say in Pakistani policy regarding drones either at the federal level, or even at the provincial level as the military-intelligence nexus decide this.

Hazara province

Imran Khan, a Punjabi from Lahore with ancestors from Pashtun regions, supported Hazara chauvinists who wanted to secede from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, will this happen?

a: I doubt it. Nawaz Sharif also courted the Hazara chauvinists but now since he has got what he wants i.e power he has no need to woo them and cause unneeded trouble and controversy for himself. The federal centre will decide.

b: Even in Khan's PTI did manage to break the Hazara division from KPK, this could lead to a Pandora's box of troubles with other regions calling for their own provinces e.g. northern Balochistan i.e. Junoobi Pakhtunkhwa, Saraiki region etc.

So I doubt a Hazara province will be created. Plus even the Hazara chauvinists' desire for it will die as the province will no be ruled de facto by a Punjabi from Lahore, Imran Khan

Economic improvement and job creation

If Imran Khan's PTI can improve the efficient administration of the province and also greater and more even distribution of resources e.g. to Malakand and other areas outside of the Peshawar valley then he will remain popular.

If he can provide jobs and do a better economic job than the ANP his credibility will rise amongst Pashtuns and in the rest of the federation.

That remains to be seen.

TTP insurgency and Afghan conflict

Khan has no say in this and it is the army-ISI that decide. The TTP insurgency will continue and the TTP in the long run will ultimately be seeking to organize a ground offensive to cross the Margala hills and capture "Islamabad" sic.

Lal Masjid massacre by the Pakistan army in "Islamabad" (sic).

"Militants" in the Pakistan federal capital, "Islamabad" (sic) a few years back during the Lal Masjid massacre.

These militants have sworn revenge and believe in "badal" for their relatives killed in Lal Masjid as well as countless other operations and their ultimate gain is to launch a ground offensive to take "Islamabad" and take revenge.

I predict instability will continue in Pashtunkhwa and terrorism and the federation will face continued or greater problems or even not survive. The ANP will in this case not have the shame of history saying they were the ruling party in Pakhtunkhwa when Pakistan broke up. History will speak of them as the party that lost countless workers for a free and progressive Pashtunkhwa against the forces of terrorism.

....to be continued

Me and myself � 1203 -2k13

saadat tahir — Mon, 06 May 2013 13:11:09 GMT

As we watch the drifting clouds
Me and myself, a lonesome consign
Together we gaze and gape
woven intricate nature�s design

hold us confounded simpletons
web and weft of so many bands
we see but we know not
the descent of hour glass sands

no handkerchief ready to
pick trickled drop from our eye
no hand to caress tender softly
as in unison we exhale our sigh

pebbles we fling out at dusk
tinkle and clink with passing time
fading our echoes and waning light
slowly edge closer to an eternal rhyme

burnt hulk from meteoric strike
a silent scream unheard so loud
echoing somber rip and tatter
faceless in a shadowy shroud

original
saadat tahir
12th Mar, 2k13
Islamabad.

Darya Khan Afridi

Bengal_Tiger — Mon, 22 Apr 2013 18:05:53 GMT

Darya Khan Afridi a friend of Khushal Khan Khattak.

Global Hujra: A Pakhtun Cyber Land

Nawaz Sharif wins Pakistan elections

Me and myself � 1203 -2k13

Darya Khan Afridi