Globe Finance

Daily Forex Market

noreply@blogger.com (Ahmad Rodhi) — Wed, 11 Jun 2008 01:51:00 +0000

The dollar made a brutal recovery on Monday against everything but the pound, after the weekend didn't bring any surprise from the Middle East and the oil price (temporarily) tempered its uptrend. Talk of concerted rate hikes gave the buck a reprieve, but I'm not sure it's the start of a big recovery for the dollar. Tuesday should see more strength, by the medium term outlook is negative.

Euro/dollar

The euro/dollar fell from a 1 ½-month high and formed a bearish reversal formation on the daily chart. Be careful of this one, more confirmation is needed if the decline is to pan out, and the current level at 1.5645 is important.

Immediate support is now seen at 1.5560. Strong support follows at 1.5470. Distant support is at 1.5415.

Strong resistance is at 1.5615. Above 1.5655, euro/dollar retains additional resistance at 1.5740. Further resistance is then seen at 1.5842.

Oscillators are falling.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen is trading one day up and one day down, and on Monday it reversed early losses in a dramatic fashion to close at an over tree-month high. My model went long, but I am not too comfortable with the upside.

Initial resistance is at 106.75 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25. Distant resistance is perched at 107.95 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45.

Initial support is seen at 106.25. The next level is 105.60 from a 50-point pivot that targets 105.10 and 106.10.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Sterling/dollar

Sterling/dollar rallied for the third consecutive day on Monday, as horrible inflation numbers make further rate hikes a done deal. My model is long, but the short term outlook is bearish.

Immediate support is now seen at 1.9675. Below 1.9640, the next level is 1.9585.

Good resistance now comes at 1.9760. 1.9801 follows. Above the pivot high at 1.9850, there is further resistance at 1.9960.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss reversed from the lowest level since April 24, but remains below the bottom of a triangle. More weakness seems to remain in store, but only in the medium term. Short term, it looks strong.

Initial resistance now comes at 1.0340. This is followed by 1.0390 and 1.0490.

Immediate support is now seen at 1.0270. This is followed by 1.0150. Distant support is at 1.0100.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly higher
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Currency Technical Report

noreply@blogger.com (Ahmad Rodhi) — Tue, 10 Jun 2008 11:18:00 +0000

EUR/USD

Resistance : 1,5620-30/ 1,5655/ 1,5670/ 1,5700/ 1,5730
Support : 1,5550/ 1,5520-25/ 1,5490-00/ 1,5450

Comment : The wider sideways formation that sets the ranges for euro's move these last months was confirmed for one more time, as bears gained momentum leading euro to a decline near the limits of the downtrend reversal. Bulls in the lows of 1.5400 were helped by the chairman of ECB Jean Claude Trichet, who warned about a potential rate hike, while bears were helped by comments regarding strong dollar from Bush and Henry Paulson mentioning the intervention as way of supporting currencies. The only thing that is certain is that there is an attempt from both sides to support their currency and we will wait to see the results…

After yesterday's facts, it is very possible that we are in the formation of a downward wave within the sideways consolidation, which may be as quick as the previous upward wave.

The short trend is now bearish and a downward break of 1.5560 will cancel any possibility of an upward resumption.

Below 1.5560, next targets are at the area of 1.5470-90, which is considered as a strong support level. Next targets are in the base of the formation in the area of 1.5370-00, but we will be cautious regarding its immediate reach for the time being.

The area of 1.5620 is the first resistance level, followed by a more important at 1.5660-70. If yesterday's bears have strength, retracements should not breach the area of 1.5670. In an opposite case, the area of 1.5730-50 could be reached again. If high volatility occurs it will be difficult to have a clear strategy and we should wait for a more clear view in the short term. For the time being we will use any opportunity within the ranges of the wider sideways consolidation...

TRADING EUR/USD : Our strategy regarding sell positions proved accurate, even if the decline was further than expected, opening our sell positions at the lower levels. The current trend is bearish and it will be followed until important support levels are reached.

Sell positions will be tried in any retracement towards 1.5650-60 area, adding more at 1.5700 with stops above 1.5730. Sell positions would also emerge at a potential break of 1.5555, having as target the area of 1.5480-90. In that case, stops should be set above the 1.5620 area...In the area of 1.5470-90 we will turn on the bulls side, with stops below 1.5445...

Daily Forex Market Commentary

noreply@blogger.com (Ahmad Rodhi) — Wed, 28 May 2008 00:09:00 +0000

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Global Forex Trading

Euro/dollar

The euro/dollar had an outside day but sank to a near one-week low and my model went short. Following another decline today, the medium-term upmove should resume.

Key support remains at 1.5655. A close below this level would signal a sustained decline and the next level would become 1.5610. This is followed by 1.5570 and 1.5460.

Initial resistance is now seen at 1.5740. The next level is 1.5811. Above 1.5865, euro/dollar has distant resistance at 1.6020.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen rallied on Tuesday, but remained stuck in an inside range. My model went long. Expect another attempt on the upside today.

Immediate resistance is now at 104.38, which is the top of the inside range. Strong resistance follows at 104.50 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 104.00 and 105.00.

Below 103.80, key support is at 103.40 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 102.90 and 103.90. A bid support is seen at 102.30 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 101.80 and 102.80.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside risk
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Sterling/dollar

Sterling/dollar failed its aggressive decline and reduced losses on the close on Tuesday. My model remains long, but the risk is on the downside.

Immediate support is at 1.9760. This is followed by 1.9645. Only a break below 1.9545 would jeopardize the cable's recovery.

Initial resistance remains at 1.9850. Above it, there is further resistance at 1.9910. Distant resistance is at 2.0030.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss rallied on Tuesday, but my model remains barely short. The immediate outlook is bullish.

Initial resistance now comes at 1.0370. If 1.0410 gives way, expect a test of 1.0510 and even of the distant resistance at 1.0623.

Immediate support is now seen at 1.0305. This is followed by 1.0200, 1.0130 and 1.0105.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Cornelius Luca
Global Forex Trading
http://www.gftforex.com

FOREX MARKET PREDICTION

noreply@blogger.com (Ahmad Rodhi) — Mon, 26 May 2008 23:51:00 +0000

Last Updated: May 27, 2008 - 00:01am
(All time are in Indonesia - Jakarta Time (WIB) or GMT+7)

Clock (GMT+7):

Click Here for Your Time Zone Converter

May 27, 2008
At Time : (time are in GMT+7 or Indonesia Jakarta Time (WIB))
19:00 GBP/USD up (Buy)

by www.GainScope.com

Daily Forex Market Commentary

noreply@blogger.com (Ahmad Rodhi) — Wed, 21 May 2008 03:25:00 +0000

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Global Forex Trading

The dollar was trashed on Tuesday amid a soaring oil price and tanking stocks. There are some intermediary inversed head-and-shoulders patterns in euro and cable and my model now went short dollars against some of the European currencies, and this makes sense. The US currency should remain under pressure today, but watch out for the Ifo report.

Euro/dollar

The euro/dollar rallied to its highest level since late April and the interim inversed head-and-shoulders I was wondering about the previous day came to fruition. My model remains long. The rising channel remains in place.

Initial resistance is now seen at 1.5680. Above 1.5740, euro/dollar has distant resistance at 1.5865.

Immediate support is now seen at 1.5595. The next level is d 1.5510. This is followed by 1.5397

Oscillators are bullish.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen bored its way out from an inside range and coined a one-week low. My model remains short and the downside remains favored.

Initial support is at 103.40 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 102.90 and 103.90. The next big level is 102.30 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 101.80 and 102.80. Distant support is at 101.25 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 100.75 and 101.75.

Immediate resistance is at 104.10. Strong resistance remains at 104.50 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 104.00 and 105.00.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Sterling/dollar

Sterling/dollar surged to a near two-week high and this forced my model to go long after being short a day earlier. At least I like move, especially since it formed interim inversed head-and-shoulders

Initial resistance now moved to 1.9719. Strong resistance is seen nearby at 1.9730. Above 1.9766, there is further resistance at 1.9880. Distant resistance is at 2.0030.

Immediate support is now seen at 1.9645. This is followed by 1.9585. Only a break below 1.9495 jeopardized the cable's recovery.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Daily Forex Market Commentary

noreply@blogger.com (Ahmad Rodhi) — Tue, 20 May 2008 01:37:00 +0000

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Global Forex Trading

The dollar rallied unexpectedly hard on Monday to reverse all or most of the gains made a day earlier. My model went long dollars against some of the European currencies, but with the S&P returning all of their gains, the US currency should come under pressure today.
Euro/dollar

The euro/dollar fell from its highest level since May 1 but had trouble at 1.5500. Are we still facing an interim inversed head-and-shoulders? Hard to tell as yet, but the rising channel remains in place.

Initial resistance is at 1.5540. the next level remains 1.5600. Above 1.5645, euro/dollar has additional resistance at 1.5685.

Immediate support is now seen at 1.5450. The next level is d 1.5415. This is followed by 1.5287.

Oscillators are bullish.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen struggled higher on Monday, but got stuck in an inside range. My model remains short. The downside remains favored.

Initial support is at 104.00. Strong support follows at 103.40 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 102.90 and 103.90. The next big level is 102.30 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 101.80 and 102.80. Distant support is at 101.25 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 100.75 and 101.75.

Immediate resistance is at 104.50 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 104.00 and 105.00.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Sterling/dollar

Sterling/dollar surrendered all of its gains made on Friday and this forced my model to go short. I don't like this and I need convincing that the pound is so weak here.

Immediate support is now seen at 1.9440. This is followed by 1.9400 and 1.9363. Only a break below 1.9363 spells trouble for cable.

Initial resistance now moved to 1.9520. Above 1.9570, there is further resistance at 1.9633. This is followed by 1.9695.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed

FOREX MARKET PREDICTION

noreply@blogger.com (Ahmad Rodhi) — Wed, 14 May 2008 04:09:00 +0000

Last Updated: Mei 14, 2008 - 00:35am

(All time are in Indonesia - Jakarta Time (WIB) or GMT+7)

Clock (GMT+7):

Click Here for Your Time Zone Converter

May 14, 2008

At Time : (time are in GMT+7 or Indonesia Jakarta Time (WIB))

15:00 GBP/USD up (Buy)

19:00 GBP/USD down (Sell)

Weekly Forex Signals

noreply@blogger.com (Ahmad Rodhi) — Mon, 17 Mar 2008 12:28:00 +0000

EUR/USD - Next target "1.60" as Euro heading to new record highs.

LONG SIGNAL	SHORT SIGNAL
EUR/USD Buy a break of resistance level at 1.5902 Buy a break of resistance level at 1.6000 Buy a bounce at 1.5735	Sell a break of support level at 1.5735 Sell a break of support level at 1.5600 Sell a failure of breaking the resistance 1.5902

Fundamental

The dollar plunged across the board on Monday as new liquidity-boosting measures launched by the Federal Reserve over the weekend failed to assuage worries about the health of the U.S. banking sector.

The Federal Reserve took more emergency measures to stem the fast-spreading financial crisis, cutting its discount rate on Sunday and opening up discount window lending to major investment banks, a tool not used since the Great Depression.

Technical

Euro still looks set to see an eventual move through $1.60, with a number of channel projections coming in around $1.63-1.65. We should see the $1.57/1.5650 area provide support on the pullbacks.

The Euro may extend its rally to as high as $1.60, based on charts that predict price movements. The Market still is in an uptrend; according to many indicators like RSI, which is giving us a clear bullish signal, MACD breaks the equilibrium level and is pointing upwards, Bollinger gives us a bullish signal by closing the candle above the middle band.

Recommended Trading Today

noreply@blogger.com (Ahmad Rodhi) — Fri, 14 Mar 2008 02:21:00 +0000

Daily Forex Market Commentary

The dollar encountered another bout of weakness on Thursday and between the recessionary retails sales and Carlyle bond funds' woes, its weakness should persist. There is faint talk of intervention, but no central bank is breaking down the door to support the US currency. Watch the University of Michigan report for intraday direction, but some short term recovery is likely for the dollar.

Euro/dollar

Euro/dollar climbed to yet a new record high on Thursday. My model is long since February 14 and I can't complain. The pair remains overbought, but only short-term weakness is possible.

Initial resistance is at 1.5660. Further resistance comes at 1.5760.

Immediate support is at 1.5570. The next level is at 1.5490. Below 1.5415, there is further support at 1.5350.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Recommended Trading Today

Buy at 1.5617 SL 1.5587 TP 1.5667

Recommended Trading Today

noreply@blogger.com (Ahmad Rodhi) — Thu, 13 Mar 2008 03:21:00 +0000

Euro/dollar

Euro/dollar exploded to a new record high on Wednesday. To repeat, I still like long positions in line with my model, long since February 14 – only a break below 1.5230 would change that. The pair is certainly overbought, but only short-term weakness is possible.

Immediate support is at 1.5535. The next level is at 1.5490. Below 1.5415, there is further support at 1.5350.

Initial resistance is at 1.5590. Further resistance comes at 1.5660. The next level is now seen at 1.5760.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Recommended Trading Today

Buy at level 15540 SL 15510 and TP 15580

Forex Technical Update

noreply@blogger.com (Ahmad Rodhi) — Mon, 10 Mar 2008 06:09:00 +0000

Euro: Euro hit a record high of 1.5463 after the US non-farm payrolls report but it ended up retreating almost instantaneously as carry trades came under pressure and news that Fed will expand its TAF (term auction facility) hit the market. Eurozone economic data continues to be firm and hence further up move is expected. Euro overall traded in a range of 150 pips and closed stronger at 1.5354 compared to its opening levels of 1.5388. Its daily charts shows an highly overbought position, while the 4-hrly shows strong buying pressure. Immediate support is seen at the levels of 1.5369 (21 hourly EMA) breaking which it will correct futher down to 1.5341 (55 hourly EMA). Longs can be initiated at those levels . (Eur/Usd-1.5379).

Pound: Despite the lack of any UK economic data, the British pound soared to a year to date high of 2.0215. UK PPI data will be released today and higher inflation numbers will further boost the pair to higher levels. The pair gained 110 pips from its opening levels of 2.0105 and closed stronger at 2.0135. The daily chart is in overbought position while the 4-hrly still shows some buying pressure. Immediate resistance is seen at the levels of 2.0245 (50% retracement weekly charts). Look for opportunities to short at those levels. (Gbp/Usd- 2.0180).

Yen: USDJPY pair was very volatile on Friday, it further tumbled to an 8-year low of 101.40. The pair traded in a range of 178 pips and later strengthened in US session on the back of strong US equity markets in early US session and news that FED would pump 200 billion dollars into the banking system to address liquidity pressures in the funding markets and hence closed stronger at 102.66. Its daily, 4-hourly, and hrly charts are in oversold positions. Immediate resistance is seen at the levels of 103.05 (21 hourly EMA and 38.2% retracement hrly charts). Avoid initiating any positions at current levels. (Usd/Jpy- 102.22). by : actionforex.com

noreply@blogger.com (Ahmad Rodhi) — Wed, 05 Mar 2008 10:21:00 +0000

EUR/USD

Current level-1.5167

The currency pair is in an uptrend unfolding from the 1.2484 bottom and probably ahead of a significant reversal on weekly basis. The technical indicators are rising and the trading is situated above the 50-day and the 200-day SMA, currently projected at 1.4302 and 1.3697.

With the recent top at 1.5275, the upmove from 1.4614 is probably completed, so expect a larger corrective phase, aiming at 1.5021 support. Intraday allow upward activity, limited to 1.5234, followed by a slide below 1.5141

Resistance		Support
intraday	intraweek	intraday	intraweek
1.5241	1.5294	1.5161	1.5073
1.5294	1.5434	1.5073	1.4950

The Dollar’s Decline Continues To Break Records, Next Fed Cut Looking Deeper And Deeper

noreply@blogger.com (Ahmad Rodhi) — Fri, 29 Feb 2008 04:44:00 +0000

The dollar can’t seem to catch a break. The beleaguered currency marked yet another momentous drop against most of its liquid counterparts, chalking up its biggest three day selloff in four years. And, leading that charge was the EUR/USD, which marked a fresh record high for the third consecutive session. Feeding the insatiable desire to sell dollars was yet another round of scheduled and unscheduled disappointing fundamentals. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s testimony before the House today more or less covered the same dour highlights from yesterday’s delivery to the Senate. The few notable differences between the two speeches came from the Q&A. In response to one particular question, the central banker suggested that it would be “fair” to suggest it is tougher for the Fed to respond now than it was during the last recession back in 2001. This may have been taken to mean by some that the economy is heading for another recession; but what Bernanke was actually referring to was the unwanted mix of quickly receding economic growth and the elevated level of front-line inflation. Addressing the dollar specifically, the Fed Chairman further said the policy group was monitoring its record breaking decline, yet he suggested he still believed foreign investors still had confidence in the world’s largest economy. While Bernanke continued to talk up the struggling greenback, the market was also absorbing disappointing readings from the fourth quarter GDP revisions and a round of second tier employment numbers. Annualized growth shirked forecasts for annualized expansion to accelerate slightly by holding at its five-year low 0.6 percent clip. Noteworthy shifts from the sector breakdown were downward revisions to personal consumption, business investment, commercial construction and government spending. In fact, the only positive change came from exports whose 0.9 percent contribution to GDP is barely keeping the US economy above water. Elsewhere on the docket, initial jobless claims in the week through February 23rd jumped well beyond the consensus to 373,000 – just off of the two year highs from last month. Pricing in this dour data, Fed Fund futures have moved from fully pricing in a 50 bp rate cut on March 18th to a 36 percent chance of 75 bps. ....more....

Forex Market Commentary

noreply@blogger.com (Ahmad Rodhi) — Wed, 27 Feb 2008 04:01:00 +0000

EUR/USD

Initial resistance now comes at 1.5045. Above it, resistance comes at 1.5078. Distant resistance looms at 1.5165.

Immediate support moved up to 1.4970. The next level is 1.4865. Below 1.4790, there is further support at 1.4715. Distant support is at 1.4640.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen fell within an inside range on Tuesday. Mixed trading is likely today.

Immediate support comes at 107.25. Further support is at 106.75 from a 50-point pivot that targets 106.25 and 107.25.

Immediate resistance moved back to 107.95 from a 50-point pivot that targets 107.45 and 108.45. Strong resistance follows at 108.75. Distant resistance lies at 109.15 from a 50-point pivot that targets 109.65 and 108.65.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Sterling/dollar

Sterling/dollar rallied on Tuesday to a 3 ½-week high and a break above 1.9820 warrants further strength. My model remains long since Thursday and the recovery should continue in the medium term.

Initial resistance comes at 1.9897. A break above this level would signal a further rally to 1.9935. This is followed by 1.9960 and 2.0035.

Immediate support is now seen at 1.9750. The next level follows at 1.9645.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss fell to a 3 ½-week on Tuesday, and my model remains short. Mixed to lower trading is likely today.

Immediate support comes at 1.0706. Below 1.0620, support is pegged at 1.0510..

Initial resistance now comes at 1.0810. The next levels are 1.0870,.0960 and 1.1000. Distant resistance comes at 1.1065.

Oscillators are declining.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed with bearish bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bearish

http://www.actionforex.com
Cornelius Luca
Global Forex Trading

Market Commentary

noreply@blogger.com (Ahmad Rodhi) — Tue, 26 Feb 2008 02:33:00 +0000

Euro/dollar

Euro/dollar traded sideways after nailing a three-week high on Friday. It's been marching higher since February 8 . The pair is slightly overbought, but sideways to higher trading is favored.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen rallied on Monday after the support of a rising trendline held. Mixed to higher trading is likely today

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Sterling/dollar

Sterling/dollar traded sideways on Monday.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Dollar/Swiss franc

Oscillators are declining.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Recommanded Trading

noreply@blogger.com (Ahmad Rodhi) — Fri, 22 Feb 2008 08:27:00 +0000

EUR/USD 1.4804

EUR/USD Open 1.4813 High 1.4833 Low 1.4625 Close 1.4759

The currency couple EUR/USD broke its short term resistances at 1.4635 and 1.4700, but than the buying of the Euro continued, which moved the Euro further to 1.4833 yesterday, which is the first resistance for today. Successful break at this level would lead to targeting the absolute record 1.4960, followed by the psychological 1.5000. In downward direction support is given by the level 1.4700, followed by 1.4635, and 1.4580.

Technical resistance levels: 1.4835 1.4960 1.5000
Technical support levels: 1.4700 1.4635 1.4580

Trading range: 1.4790 - 1.4865

Trend: Upward

Buy at 1.4804 SL 1.4772 TP 1.4854

Forex Market Summary

noreply@blogger.com (Ahmad Rodhi) — Tue, 19 Feb 2008 04:01:00 +0000

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was a quiet session of trade as markets in the US were closed on the back of President's Day Holiday, as bearish sentiment followed through from Friday's poor data readings. Market is expected to resume on Tuesday although the only event worthy of noting would be Fed Official Stern speaking on the state of the US economy.

The Euro (EUR) gave up some of its late rally seen last week on the back of poor data. With the absence of data coupled with US holidays, the Euro held broadly in a range trading technically for much the day. Overall the EURUSD traded with a low of 1.4611 and a high of 1.4689 before closing the day at 1.4655.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) demand for services saw its largest drop in three months with Tertiary Index fell by -0.6% from the previous month. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 107.76 and a high of 108.09 before closing the day at 107.65.

The Sterling (GBP) continued its decline versus the dollar, further tumbling on news that that the U.K. government plans to nationalize troubled U.K. financial institution Northern Rock Plc. Traders pushed the pair lower on concerns that other U.K. financial institution might have significant exposure to asset-backed securities and collateralized debt obligations. Overall the GBPUSD traded with a low of 1.9477 and a high of 1.9522 before closing the day at 1.9603.

http://www.actionforex.com

noreply@blogger.com (Ahmad Rodhi) — Thu, 07 Feb 2008 04:36:00 +0000

FOREX MARKET PREDICTION

Last Updated: Feb 12, 2008 - 01:25am

(All time are in Indonesia - Jakarta Time (WIB) or GMT+7)

Clock (GMT+7):

Click Here for Your Time Zone Converter

Feb 12, 2008
At Time : (time are in GMT+7 or Indonesia Jakarta Time (WIB))
15:45 GBP/USD up (Buy)
=====================================
Feb 11, 2008
At Time : (time are in GMT+7 or Indonesia Jakarta Time (WIB)
15:45 GBP/USD up (Buy)

ALWAYS put a Stop Loss (SL) MAX 40 pips, and Target Profit (TP) starting from 10 to 70 pips, you can use a trailing stop too

USE AT YOUR OWN RISK !
By : www.Gainscope.com

Recession Fear and Dollar Loathing in Las Vegas

noreply@blogger.com (Ahmad Rodhi) — Wed, 06 Feb 2008 09:18:00 +0000

Judging by today's selling frenzy on Wall Street, it looks like the sky is falling in on us. And the time has come to ask some important questions. Is it safe to say that the recession is finally here? If we are in a recession, how long will the recession last? Will heavy consumer debt, a growing federal budget gap, and rising prices make this recession worse than Americans have experienced over the past two decades? Will the situation evolve into the worst financial crisis since World War Two? (By the way, legendary investor George Soros seems to think so)

Sometimes the questions are more important than answers, especially in the chaotic environment we now find ourselves in. The right questions can act as compasses to steer us through this turbulent time. I'm not going to pretend I know the perfect questions to ask, but here's the biggest question on my mind:

Will the Fed lose their ability to stimulate the economy during a recession?

After today's doom and gloom, the street is calling on the Fed for another emergency interest rate cut. But there's a problem: rates can't go below zero. The Fed may continue to cut interest rates, but they must be careful not to run out of ammunition. In other words, if the federal funds are lowered beyond a certain point, the ability of the Fed to stimulate the economy comes to an end.

George Soros believes we are entering the greatest financial crisis in 60 years because the Fed is losing it's ability to stimulate the economy. Soros explains why this crisis is different: "The current crisis marks the end of an era of credit expansion based on the dollar as the international reserve currency." He adds: "The periodic crises were part of a larger boom-bust process. The current crisis is the culmination of a super-boom that has lasted for more than 60 years."

For decades foreigners have been buying U.S. bonds, keeping U.S. rates low. It's hard to quantify the impact of foreign investors, but a 2006 study by Professors Francis and Veronica Warnock at the University of Virginia found that U.S. long-term interest rates would be about 90 basis points higher without foreign buyers. In a nutshell, Soros believes the greenback is losing its place as the world's reserve currency. Soros feels that foreigners will stop buying U.S. bonds, i.e. the end of dollar hegemony, which will place upward pressure on U.S. rates. With U.S. yields rising due to foreigners running for the exits, the Fed's interest rate cuts become impotent. It goes without saying that the recession could turn into a multi headed monster if Fed interest rate cuts became impotent.

The consensus seems to be that foreigners will turn their backs on U.S. assets, which would validate Soros' argument. I'm going out on a limb here, but I'm going to suggest the market is too quick to jump to the conclusion that the dollar will lose its place as the world's reserve currency. Let me explain with an example:

Soros' argument of dollar collapse makes sense if the market is a cold computer that rationally incorporates every piece of information. Why should foreign governments hold dollar assets when the dollar has lost more than 20% of value against its main trading partners since February 2002? But the market is made up of emotionally-charged humans, and humans suffer from bounded rationality. In other words, humans can't be 100% rational 100% of the time. If humans were 100% rational 100% of the time, Las Vegas would be a ghost town in the desert.

As humans, we suffer from loss aversion. Loss aversion is the tendency for people to strongly prefer avoiding losses as opposed to achieving gains. As an example, choose between these two options:

Option A: A sure loss of $890
Option B: A 90% chance to lose $1,000 and a 10% chance to lose nothing.

In this situation, a large majority of decision makers will prefer the gamble in Option B, even though the other choice is statistically superior.

The valuation losses of foreign assets due to the sharp decline of the dollar will hurt foreign investors, and I argue here that foreign investors are in no way different from a gambler losing money at a roulette table. Moody's released the following calculations: Assuming the exchange rate of the dollar falls from about 0.67 euro currently to 0.50 euro over the next two years - a very bold assumption - China is expected to lose close to $260 billion in valuation losses, while Japan could lose $190 billion. Is China willing to risk a $260 billion loss by sticking with the dollar?

I admit that I am proposing an unlikely scenario, but it is conceivable that foreign governments will choose to hang on to their losing dollar positions, in the same way a gambler would have a tendency to "double down" when things go wrong, rather than admit a loss. At the very least, this argument suggests that governments will take their time unwinding dollar positions, which would limit the medium-term upside pressure on U.S. yields. We are, after all, only human, and there are signs that that dollar could rebound towards the end of 2008: the U.S. current account is improving, fear-motivated bond flows would perversely support the dollar, and investors are focused on relative growth prospects rather than absolute borrowing costs. If aggressive cuts by the Fed can stimulate the economy, then the U.S. will definitely lead the way in terms of economic recovery, and the dollar could rebound.

If foreign investors choose to "double down" and stay invested in the dollar, U.S. yields won't rise as much as Soros predicts, and the Fed's interest rate cuts may remain potent, limiting the damage a recession may cause. If only it was so straightforward...

Trade The News Staff
Trade The News, Inc.

FOREX MARKET PREDICTION

noreply@blogger.com (Ahmad Rodhi) — Wed, 06 Feb 2008 05:58:00 +0000

FOREX MARKET PREDICTION

Last Updated: Feb 6, 2008 - 01:25am

(All time are in Indonesia - Jakarta Time (WIB) or GMT+7)

Clock (GMT+7):

Click Here for Your Time Zone Converter

Feb 6, 2008
At Time : (time are in GMT+7 or Indonesia Jakarta Time (WIB))
19:50 GBP/USD down (Sell)

====================================

Feb 5, 2008

At Time : (time are in GMT+7 or Indonesia Jakarta Time (WIB))

15:50 GBP/USD down (Sell)
21:20 GBP/USD up (Buy)

ALWAYS put a Stop Loss (SL) MAX 40 pips, and Target Profit (TP) starting from 10 to 70 pips, you can use a trailing stop too

USE AT YOUR OWN RISK !
By : www.Gainscope.com

Suharto buried in state funeral

noreply@blogger.com (Ahmad Rodhi) — Mon, 28 Jan 2008 12:38:00 +0000

Suharto's flag-covered coffin was flown to Solo for the funeral

Former Indonesian President Suharto, who died on Sunday at the age of 86, has been buried in a state funeral.

President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono oversaw the ceremony at the Suharto family mausoleum near the city of Solo.

Suharto, who ruled Indonesia for more than three decades, was credited with leading his country from poverty to relative development.

But he was dogged by allegations of corruption, political repression and serious human rights abuses.

Hundreds of thousands of suspected communists were killed as he rose to power in the 1960s.

He was ousted by mass protests in 1998 and in recent years suffered from poor health - one of the reasons why he never faced trial.

Risk Dominates Swissy

noreply@blogger.com (Ahmad Rodhi) — Mon, 28 Jan 2008 12:35:00 +0000

The Swiss franc will remain robust, but there is a strong probability that a near-term peak was seen last week

The Swiss franc weakened back to lows beyond 1.61 and 1.0950 against the Euro and dollar respectively on Friday. Risk tolerances improved which lessened immediate demand and the franc was also still technically overbought after the recent strong gains.

The franc moves are likely to remain dominated by degrees of risk aversion and the currency pared losses as Wall Street drifted lower.

National Bank President Roth stated that the recent franc gains were welcome and a natural result of rising risk aversion. The bank's stance will provide some important underlying currency support.

The franc strengthened back to 1.0930 in early Europe on Monday as Asian equity prices lost ground, although there was not the sense of panic seen during the first half of next week

Investica
http://www.investica.co.uk

Risk Aversion Eases

noreply@blogger.com (Ahmad Rodhi) — Fri, 25 Jan 2008 12:26:00 +0000

Immediate demand for the Swiss franc and Japanese yen will remain lower in the short term, although further heavy selling pressure is unlikely at this stage.

The Federal Reserve interest rate cut this week, allied with the fiscal support package and hopes that a support package can be put together for the US bond insurance companies has had a significant impact in easing global risk aversion levels. Global stock markets have rallied strongly with particularly sharp gains for the German DAX index.

The latest US and European data has also not supported the case for a rapid plunge into recession conditions. The German IFO index rose slightly to 103.4 in January from 103.0 previously. US jobless claims were again lower than expected at 301,000 in the latest week from a revised 302,000 previously. Existing home sales fell by 2.2% to an annual rate of 4.89mn, although prices were little changed and inventories fell back to below 10 months supply.

The easing of fear has weakened short-term demand for the yen and Swiss franc. From highs near 105.0 against the dollar, the yen has weakened to test levels beyond 107.50 while the Euro has regained ground strongly against both currencies. Caution will prevail, but the yen and Swiss franc saw important medium-term peaks this week.

Investica
http://www.investica.co.uk

Mid-Day Report: Yen Strengthen Continues after Falling Global Equity Markets

noreply@blogger.com (Ahmad Rodhi) — Tue, 22 Jan 2008 13:12:00 +0000

Risk aversion dominates the market today, following sharp decline in Asia and European equity markets. US markets is closed for Martin Luther King day today. Activities may slow a bit but overall sentiments will likely remain unchanged. That is, yen will continue to be firm while other major currencies except the dollar will likely remain weak. Particular weakness will be in the Aussie, which was additionally pressured by weakness in gold prices. Euro, on the other hand will continue to be soft as markets readjusting their expectation on ECB policy path following recent dovish comments from ECB officials.

On the Economic data front, Germany PPI dropped -0.1% mom in Dec, with yoy rate unchanged at 2.5%. Swiss combined PPI dropped -0.1% mom in Dec, with yoy rate unchanged at 3.0% too. Canadian wholesale sales rose 0.3% mom in Nov, missing expectation of 0.5%. Released in Asia, Australia PPI missed expectation and rose 0.6% qoq, w.8% yoy only in Q4.

Two central banks are scheduled to announce rate decisions tomorrow. BoJ is widely expected to announce that they'll leave rates unchanged at 0.5% in the coming Asia session. BoC, on the other hand, is expected to cut rates by 25bps for the second consecutive months to 4.0%. ....Read more....

Forex and Dow Jones Recommended Levels

noreply@blogger.com (Ahmad Rodhi) — Tue, 15 Jan 2008 04:43:00 +0000

EUR/USD

Today's support: - 1.4846 and 1.4825(main), where correction is possible.Break would give 1.4803, where correction also may be. Then 1.4780. Break of the latter would result in 1.4757. If a strong impulse, we would see 1.4718. Continuation will give 1.4678.

Today's resistance: - 1.4909, 1.4924 and 1.4943 (main). Break would give 1.4962, where a correction is possible. Then 1.4983. Break of the latter would result in 1.5008. If a strong impulse, we'd see 1.5022. Continuation will give 1.5036.

USD/JPY

Today's support: - 107.52 and 107.21(main). Break would bring 106.98, where correction is possible. Then 106.75. If a strong impulse, we would see 106.48. Continuation would give 107.56.

Today's resistance: -108.59 и 108.90(main), where a correction may happen. Break would bring 109.13, where also a correction may be. Then 109.45. If a strong impulse, we would see 109.86. Continuation will give 110.11.

DOW JONES INDEX

Today's support: - 12 690.00, 12 653.10, 12 577.40 and 12 549.34(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 12 526.77, where correction also can be. Then 12 506.84. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 12 476.26. Continuation will bring 12 451.64 and 12 414.37.

Today's resistance: - 12 806.37(main), where a a delay and correction may happen.Break would bring 12 837.90, where a correction may happen.Then 12 853.11, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 12 875.62. Continuation would bring 12 958.94.