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No new US bases in the Philippines just the possibility of an increased US presence

2012-01-29T15:01:57+11:00

Subic Bay US Naval Base...still history (Source: Wikipedia)

There were some media reports recently about consideration being given for new US bases in the Philippines but careful reading of both the US and Philippines announcements showed that there was no talk of bases just an increased US presence. The US did have bases in the Philippines before but between the actions of Philippines Senate and the eruption of Mt Pinatubo the US left (or was expelled from, depending on your viewpoint) its bases including very large facilities at Clark Air Force Base and Subic Bay Naval Base. The Philippines have strict laws against foreign bases and foreign military involvement as the US has discovered in its counter terrorism fight in the Southern Philippines. Knowing that history and the legal reality the Philippines Foreign Secretary made it clear that there were no discussions about US bases in the Philippines.

"It is to our definite advantage to be exploring how to maximise our treaty alliance with the United States in ways that would be mutually acceptable and beneficial."

The US position was also made very clear by the Commander of US PACOM.

“There is no desire nor view right now that the U.S. is seeking basing options anywhere in the Asia-Pacific theater.”

The US is making it clear that it is not after foreign basing of its military at present. This is probably not economically attractive in the current financial climate but it is also not strategically attractive. While a military base in an important part of the world does give the US a stable position to launch operations from it comes with costs. The US base can become a target for the domestic politics of that country, as occurred in the Philippines in the early 1990s and as still occurs in Japan and South Korea. The presence of US forces in a base could also raise expectations that the US will become engaged in any security issue experienced by that country. By following the current strategy the US is developing a flexible approach. It showed during the 2004 Tsunami response that it could deploy forces into the region at short notice to assist local security forces. By giving itself the option of rotating troops it can adjust its presence in the region depending on the acceptance of the host government and the security situation. It can therefore escalate as required and de-escalate as well. This could be to balance moves by China or to pressure regional governments. (A removal of US troops from a country may be equally as effective as sending more troops to a country.)

Without expensive base facilities the US is no longer tied geographically to an area. This is also not 1945; the region has some excellent facilities that can adequately support military operations, the US does not need to build them.

China is of course watching the US carefully and the new US military focus on the region. the official spokesperson of the Chinese Ministry of Defence recently remarked:

"There is a movement towards greater peace and stability across the Asia-Pacific region...We urge the United States to follow the prevailing trend, take an objective and balanced view of China and its military and behave cautiously and in a manner conducive to developing good relations."

It is clear that the US wants to have a military role in the region and it is clear that China will continue to expand its influence in the region. The key will be to see common security interests and build on those. These can include sea lane security, anti-piracy, regional stability and counter-terrorism. Time will tell how this plays out.

A paper containing three personnel reminiscences of BCOF in Japan from three experienced Japanese hands

2012-01-27T02:24:12+11:00

(Source: Wikimedia Commons)

I recently came across this paper from 1991 on the web and wanted to share it because of who wrote it. These are three personal reminiscences of the British Commonwealth Occupation Force (BCOF) but from three people who later came to be close observers of Japan. The three people are:

W G Beasley, Emeritus Professor of History of the Far East, University of London

Personal Reminiscences of the Early Months of the Occupation: Yokosuka and Tokyo, September 1945 – March 1946

T B Millar, Visiting Fellow, Centre of International Studies, London School of Economics

An Australian's Experiences of BCOF: Kaitaichi and Hiroshima, 1946-6

Sir Hugh Cortazzi, GCMG, British Ambassador to Japan, 1980-4

Britain and the Occupation of Japan: A Personal Experience and Some Comments

The Chinese could reach Pyongyang in two hours; must be by air

2012-01-27T02:01:27+11:00

The Korea Times had an article quoting a Japanese newspaper report that Chinese sources claimed that Chinese troops could be in Pyongyang within two hours. I suppose it could be true but Japanese reporting is not always accurate about North Korea. If the Chinese were to move south than they will not be able to use Google Maps; I tried and Google maps cannot plot a road trip to Pyongyang from the Chinese border. I also doubt that an overland tip would only take take two hours. The straight line distance from Dandong in China to Pyongyang is approximately 170km so the journey would have to be by aircraft to achieve the two hour timeframe. It is unclear what the Chinese troops would do once they go to a Pyongyang that was in the centre of a collapsing DPRK. Would they be bring Kim Jong Nam or would they be there to spirit away information that they did not want publicised?

The Chinese have intervened in Korea before, most recently in a big way during the 1950-53 Korean War. The Chinese would probably look for UN cover before they intervened or at least some humanitarian reason. A Chinese intervention would make the ROK worried given continuous internet rumours about China eyeing the DPRK as a new Chinese province. It would also leave the US in an interesting position as to what it should do, especially if the Chinese were already stabilising the situation and did not want US help. Of course, there could be genuine relief for the US if that occurred depending on how the US economy was going at the time. The US would probably not want instability in northeast Asia if it was trying to trade out of an economic downturn.

So it looks like Korea will not be getting Global Hawk after all

2012-01-27T01:32:43+11:00

(Source: Korea Times)

The Korea Times has an exclusive story claiming that the ROK will not be purchasing any Global Hawk UAVs as the price was just too high.

“We cannot buy the drones at the price the United States is offering them,” Noh Dae-lae, commissioner of the Defense Acquisition Program Administration (DAPA), said.

The story mentioned other options open to South Korea such as Global Observer and Phantom Eye. Korea has been after Global Hawk for a number of years but without much luck. There was some initial concern from the US side that should South Korea obtain Global Hawks that components may be copied for use in the domestic ROK arms industry. Those concerns appeared to have been allayed as there seemed to be consensus that the sale should go ahead. The delay and now cancellation, however, may work out to the ROK's benefit as technology is moving ahead quickly and Global Hawk is not the only player in the high-end UAV realm. The discussion about the other two UAV systems may be a hint that other options are being considered.

The other interesting part in the story is non-attributed but must have come from some insider as it is not a fact that the average journalist would immediately know nor probably even question:

Any of the three UAVs is capable of covering not only the whole of North Korea but also parts of China and other neighboring countries.

This was probably also a concern of the US originally. In the first instance they would not want one of their systems being used to spy on other friends noting that Japan is also a neighbouring country that has a territorial dispute with South Korea. Also, given the recent sophisticated US UAV that has wound up in Iran, it is likely that the US would also be concerned about one of its Global Hawks crashing into China, Russia or North Korea, even if it was an export variant.

A paper on the Russo-Japanese War impact on Western Military Thought prior to 1914

2012-01-25T02:44:11+11:00

(Source: here)

I was reading a little about the Russo-Japanese War of 1904-05. It is one of those wars starting with the Crimean War and the US Civil War that are labelled as early industrial or modern wars. It has come to be seen as a harbinger for the wars of the 20th century with massed armies, ironclads, rapid fire artillery, etc. During my meanderings around the net I came across this paper from 1985 for a Masters Thesis on what lessens could have been drawn from the Russo-Japanese War that may have helped senior military officers fight the First World War more effectively.

This paper still has relevance now as experts debate what lessons we should be drawing from current conflicts to prepare militaries for future threats. Mind you, it is always easier to look back and wonder why military leaders did not adopt new technologies and methods that appear so clear in hindsight to our generation. That statement is obviously not an excuse for some blind senior leaders who were slow to learn but more a comment on the problems of taking events out of historical context. I do not think that this paper is guilty of that mistake. It is a well argued paper that makes good reading for those who want to understand how war evolved. A good quote is:

The catastrophic events of 1914-1918 seem to indicate that the majority of military thinkers learned nothing from the war in Manchuria. Despite the staggering casualties which offensive tactics cost the Japanese, whom the Europeans had praised, the German, French, and Russian armies all put great faith in their offensive strategies; each believed that its respective recipe for victory-- Schlieffen Plan, Plan 17, or Plan 20--would enable it to achieve quick and decisive victory when the inevitable clash came.

From an Australian perspective, it is worth noting that one of the British observers was General Sir Ian Hamilton who was later in overall command of the Gallipoli Campaign.

A fashion t-shirt with an 'Aceh Hardwar' logo for sale in Indonesia

2012-01-24T01:14:31+11:00

While walking through a shopping mall in Indonesia my gaze was attracted to this T-shirt. (Sorry for the photo quality I was using my iPhone in one hand while holding the grocery shopping in the other hand.) At first I did not take it in, just looking without reading, wandering past all the different shops. It took me a few seconds before it registered what the t-shirt had written on it; Aceh Hardwar. It was a play on the Ace Hardware logo (here is the Indonesian site with the logo visible). The shop was not big and I do not think it was a franchise, just a small shop. I was not certain if the t-shirt was a political statement about the long running conflict in Aceh or possibly about how it was fought. Maybe it was just a joke for locals to enjoy. Possibly it was only a fashion design to project an air of political awareness. There was a remote possibility it was demonstrating solidarity to resurrect an old video game. I just thought that the t-shirt was worth a post. For more information on the conflict in Aceh that concluded in 2005, please check out the International Crisis Group website, specifically this August 2005 report and this December 2005 report.

Videos from the US Army on the evolution of modern warfare

2012-01-23T01:15:00+11:00

While surfing through YouTube I came upon this terrific series of videos. They were created by the US Army's Combat Studies Institute to help instructors prepare themselves with additional information before they taught the evolution of modern warfare package. I have linked to the first of twelve videos above and you can then watch them in order as they appear on the right hand side of the page. Alternatively, you can go to the uploader's defence page, PublicResourceOrg, and watch them through that means. If you are very keen then it seems you can buy the supplementary reading package from Amazon as someone is selling a second-hand copy.

For a non-US national they do come across as very US centric but given the aim of the videos is to train US military personnel the focus is understandable. It is also interesting understanding how the lessons of military history are used to teach the current generation of leaders about the evolution of their vocation.

Two tales of networking social disturbances...separated by over 150 years

2012-01-21T01:48:10+11:00

I sent out a quick tweet about this subject but I thought that I would follow that up with a post about what my point was. I listened to this really well produced and informative podcast on the 1848 revolutions in Europe from the always informative In Our Time hosted by Melvyn Bragg. During the podcast the distinguished academics discussed how the notion of revolution spread quickly across Europe carried by steam ships and telegraphs; the social networking tools of the day. By a serendipitous chance I was also reading an article in Wired about the new networked rioters that have appeared thanks to social networking tools. Neither of these 'events' claim that social networking started the disturbances only that they helped spread or enlarge the riots. The Wired article was very good at looking at how social networking like Twitter, BBM, etc can contribute to rioting and demonstrations; particularly how they can be used by malcontents to counter police tactics. The connections between the two stories really stood out and made an interesting comparison about about how social disturbances develop, how mobs take over, how problems spread, etc. The 1848 revolutions eventually lost impetus and failed in the short term. The recent disturbances in the UK, USA and Europe have had some short term impacts but have really not impacted politically in a major way like 1848. I can recommend both these articles as an interesting way to see how a historical event can still have parallels in modern times.

400 Gurkha positions to be cut in the British Army as part of cost cutting measures

2012-01-20T01:28:17+11:00

(Source: Channel News Asia story)

As part of the most recent rounds of cost cutting in the British defence establishment the 3500-strong Gurkha presence in the British Army is to be reduced by 400 positions. The best quote is:

"When they needed troops for battle, the UK government recruited hundreds and thousands of Gurkhas for their service but they have decided to cut numbers in the name of reducing defence expenditure," said Gajendra Isbo, of the Kathmandu-based Gurkha Army Ex-Serviceman's Organisation.

There can be no doubting the bravery and loyalty of these troops nor their fierce reputation. I recall reading a story that the Gurkhas were present during a siege in the Second World War. They became tired of being targets for the German gunners and so snuck out one night to a gun crew. They killed the two crew members sleeping on the outsides of the row of slumbering Germans with their Kukris but left the others to sleep undisturbed. One can only imagine what happened when the surviving crew members awoke the next day.

Despite this, the world is changing. The British would probably still like to recruit Gurkhas to maintain the numbers of the Army but the British national budget is not as robust as it once was. The Gurkhas like other important components of the service will have to share the pain. In the past there had been talk outside of Australian Defence circles of forming a Gurkha unit in Australia but Australia's Defence Department is also in savings mode. The 3000 plus remaining Gurkhas will continue the historical presence of the tough Nepalese fighters in the British Army. The long term question will be will units like the Gurkhas (and French Foreign Legion) be considered unwanted legacies of imperial pasts to be disbanded in the future or will they be viewed as still important components of financially constrained militaries?

Maps of Gettysburg by Bradley Gottfried available on Kindle for $3.99 until the end of January

2012-01-20T00:50:19+11:00

Just a quick post to let you know that Bradley M. Gottfried's Maps of Gettysburg is available until the end of January for only $3.99. In hardback it is $26.37 on Amazon. It has received a high number of five star reviews on Amazon.

The blurb from the publisher Savas Beatie LLC is below:

More academic and photographic accounts on the battle of Gettysburg exist than for all other battles of the Civil War combined—and for good reason. The three days of maneuver, attack, and counterattack consisted of scores of encounters, from corps-size actions to small unit engagements. Despite all its coverage, Gettysburg remains one of the most complex and difficult to understand battles of the war. The Maps Gettysburg: The Atlas of the Gettysburg Campaign, June 3 – July 13, 1863, by Bradley Gottfried offers a unique approach to the study of this multifaceted engagement.

The Maps of Gettysburg plows new ground in the study of the campaign by breaking down the entire campaign in 146 detailed full page original maps. These cartographic creations bore down to the regimental level, offering students of the campaign a unique and fascinating approach to studying what may have been the climactic battle of the war.

The Maps of Gettysburg offers thirty-one “action-sections” comprising the entire campaign. These include the march to and from the battlefield and virtually every significant event in between. Gottfried’s original maps enrich each map section. Keyed to each piece of cartography is detailed text about the units, personnel, movements, and combat (including quotes from eyewitnesses) that make the Gettysburg story come alive. This presentation allows readers to easily and quickly find a map and text on virtually any portion of the campaign, from opening movements of the armies in early June to the last Confederate withdrawal of troops across the Potomac River on July 13, 1863. Serious students of the battle will appreciate the extensive endnotes and will want to take this book with them on their trips to the battlefield.

Perfect for the easy chair or for stomping the hallowed ground of Gettysburg, The Maps of Gettysburg promises to be a seminal work that belongs on the bookshelf of every serious and casual student of the battle.

The US Civil War is a conflict that I know little about but I intend to read more about it over the coming years. I have seen the 1993 movie Gettysburg and I have read some accounts of this pivotal battle. It seems that Savas Beatie LLC is testing the water of placing a book like this in a digital format so the company is offering it at a reduced price to tempt people to buy it. I have had a quick look through the book on my iPad and the maps are clear and can be expanded by the usual two fingers process. I have reproduced a map below based on a screenshot off my computer.

For the price of a coffee I would certainly recommend buying this book now before the price goes up at the end of the month. I guess if demand is higher enough then the company will publish more books in a similar format.

The existence of Malaysia's most famous historical warrior questioned by a prominent academic

2012-01-19T01:40:11+11:00

I was doing some reading on the net when I came across this article that discussed a prominent Malaysian academic questioning the existence of Hang Tuah and the other warriors closely associated with him. Hang Tuah is a popular folklore warrior who is also taught as a historical figure in Malaysian schools. His story contains a famous dilemma on loyalty. His friend Hang Jebat fears that Hang Tuah has been executed by the Sultan of Malacca and gets consumed with rage and attacks everybody. The Sultan had only pretended to kill his loyal warrior Hang Tuah as a punishment for Hang Tuah disobeying him. The Sultan calls on Hang Tuah to stop his friend, Hang Jebat from inflicting anymore damage on the city. Hang Tuah and Hang Jebat fight and Hang Tuah eventually kills his friend whose rage was started by reports of Hang Tuah's seemingly undeserved execution. For Malays this is the source of debate on loyalty especially for a warrior. To help illustrate that point, this page contains a story based on the legend of Hang Tuah that along with the comments demonstrates what modern Malays feel about the tale. For a more graphic portrayal try the short film below that nicely shows the final fight in which the legendary Kris Taming Sari is used.

A good background on the historical context to Hang Tuah is here. The article makes it clear that the story of Hang Tuah (Hikayat Hang Tuah) is a tale that is possibly based on history.

So far the problem of dating Hikayat Hang Tuah remains unsolved. In a series of interesting articles on this hikayat, B.B. Parnickel asserts that the romance acquired its present shape in the sultanate of Johor, during the 'golden thirty years' of its history (1640- 1670s), so that its account of the valour displayed by Laksamana Hang Tuah might have redounded to the glory of his very distant successor in that function, Laksamana Abd al-Jamil, the most powerful courtier in Johor at that time (Parnickel 1962:148-9). Parnickel correctly observes that the tale reflects some of the events which took place in Johor during the 17th century, and that in some of its episodes the author is apparently striving 'to project the present into the past' (Parnickel 1962:150).

Hang Tuah is unquestionably a 'Malay' hero so he also features in Indonesia. Both the Royal Malaysian Navy and the Republic of Indonesian Navy have vessels named after Hang Tuah.

A while ago I was going to write a blog post about Hang Tuah to illustrate a Malay historical warrior but there was really nothing I could find for a substantial post from a military history perspective. I suspect that Professor Khoo Kay Kim is correct in his stand that Hang Tuah is legend not historical fact. That said, I acknowledge that the importance of Hang Tuah is as a legend to motivate 'Malays.' I am really not sure how much the current Indonesian or Malaysian militaries use the story of Hang Tuah to motivate the present generation of soldiers but his story has enough resonance to ensure that those vessels were named in his honour.

Pictures and details about a pair of Qing-era matchlock firearms

2012-01-17T02:19:20+11:00

Source here

An interesting post in the Ethnographic Arms and Armour Forum on two Chinese Qing-era matchlock firearms. Further down the post there is some interesting detail about the movement of firearms into East Asia.

Some quick Indonesian related links

2012-01-17T00:56:17+11:00

There has been some trouble again in Aceh with a state electricity tower damaged by an unknown party. The attack has been ascribed by some observers to growing tensions related to the upcoming governor election in Aceh on 16 Feb 12. This attack comes on the tail of shootings in early January this year. The article also gives a good rundown of current tensions in Aceh and what the view of TNI is:

The Indonesian Armed Forces (TNI) and the police are believed to prefer that he [Irwandi, the current governor] continue his governorship for a number of different reasons. For one, they still harbor suspicions toward the leaders of the Aceh Party, all former GAM leaders and commanders...

Second, the business interests of the security forces are being accommodated by Irwandi, who has frequently visited Jakarta to attract investors. He has reportedly discussed investment plans with business tycoon and the part-owner of the Artha Graha Group, Tomy Winata, who enjoys close ties with the TNI. [emphasis added]

(In a nice case of serendipity I also saw this article discussing Tomy Winata's plan to build the fifth tallest building in the world in Jakarta.)

I hope that the events in Aceh are not the start of renewed troubles in that province that has suffered a troubled history since 1945. When security disturbances occur in Indonesia they are often quickly and easily attributed to conspiracies, especially involving political interests and security forces. It is sometimes hard to tell the truth of these allegations. In December 2000 a series of bombs occurred outside a number of churches across Indonesia on Christmas Eve and were labelled by some as the results of political in fighting or the security services trying to protect their position. The world later learnt that this was the start of JI's bombing campaign. I am not saying that the recent events in Aceh are linked to JI or GAM or any other group. I am just saying that it is easy to blame the usual suspects and miss the new kid on the block.

In other TNI news the Defence Minister held a press coneference today to say that Indonesia is ready to modernise its hardware. He pointed out that 2011 had been a good year, procurement wise, for TNI:

Indonesia ended 2011 with large procurements, including six Sukhoi Su-30MKK from Russia worth US$470 million; three submarines from South Korea worth almost $1.1 billion in cooperation with state shipyard PT PAL; nine NC-295 medium transport from Spain worth $325 billion in cooperation with state-owned aircraft maker PT Dirgantara Indonesia; 16 KAI T-50 Golden Eagle advanced trainers, worth $400 million, from South Korea; eight Embraer EMB-314 Super Tucano counter-insurgency aircraft from Brazil; and Grob G 120TP primary trainer from Germany.

The article also included TNI's "shopping list" for 2012. This list may lead some people to claim that there is an arms race occurring in Southeast Asia, that assertion is a perennial favourite from journalists and observers yet it never feels that way on the ground. I can recommend pages 30-31 of Council for Security Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific's (CSCAP) Regional Security Outlook 2012 for a balanced view on that debate.

Sorry for the lack of activity, I am also back in SE Asia

2012-01-15T22:17:22+11:00

Sorry for the lack of blogging over the past few months, it has been very busy. I had a post written a while ago but the internet connection stopped working and I lost everything I had typed. It was a hectic time in my life and that simple loss of what I had taken time to 'pen' took the impetus out of my blogging. My old laptop and Windows 7 also 'conspired' against me to cause problems so I have done what I considered doing three years ago and I have bought a Mac (MacBook Pro actually). The Mac bug bit me big time; I now own an iPad2, a time machine, iTV as well as taking out a subscription to MacWorld. I already had an iPhone. Anyway, with all this new Mac stuff now I will try to get back to regular blogging again, although I will have to pace myself as I am very committed at present with work.

On the work front I have moved to Southeast Asia again, Indonesia to be precise. I did not think that I would be back here after ten years away but work made me an offer that I could not refuse. This year will be very busy but the following two years, while still hectic, will be a little more under control.

Indonesia has gone through some changes over the last 10 years, not surprising really for any country over a decade. When I was last here Indonesia was recovering from the fall of Soeharto and the monetary crisis. It was coming off a real low point but it now appears to be climbing out of those woes. I would not say that it has changed completely, how could a country as diverse and as large as Indonesia change over just 10 years.

It is an interesting time to be back in Asia, with the US saying that it is focusing on Asia again, with China pushing its regional ambition and with Indonesia building its military again. Yes, it should be an interesting three years I would say. Hopefully I will find time for blogging. More soon...I hope :-)

An interesting podcast on the Thai military and the role of politics in the recent re-shuffle

2011-10-08T10:04:14+11:00

I just finished listening to a very interesting podcast on the 01 Oct re-shuffle within the Thai military from Radio Australia's Connect Asia program. There is also a transcript of the podcast on the ABC's Radio Australia Connect Asia website. The person being interviewed is John Cole, a former US Army Foreign Area Officer who graduated from Thai Staff College. John Cole also wrote an article in Asia Times Online about the reshuffle. The podcast is very informative on the thinking behind the reshuffle, who links to who and also what the military structures mean. There were also the mandatory statement on what a return of Thaksin may mean:

I think if you were looking for the one back breaker that could break the deal that you opened this interview conversation with, the one deal that could break, the one deal breaker issue would be to have everybody wake up one sunny morning and find that Thaksin's already landed at Don Mueang and he's back and I think the military. While hearing from my friends and former associates and classmates in Thai staff colleges, that's the one thing that could set the whole thing on fire.

John Cole had an interesting assessment about how military information is being leaked from the military itself to a political party:

Yes sir, yes sir, that's the inference here and if that's the case, that's a serious problem. I mean that means you've got military people working in Armed Forces Security Forces Centre who can't be trusted, that was the inference. So Lieutenant General Chaowarit was sent back there to, if you will, clean this up. And he's a capable person. He's not one of these overly authoritarian types. He's very intelligent and he's had a history of working in difficult positions. So I think he was in terms of skill levels, he's probably the best choice. In other words, the person who took over didn't have to relearn the job, he's the one who helped invent the job or update it, so I see that as a strong move on the part of the military.

For me, what these moves mean is that the Army is more focused on politics than operations and its own professional development. There is the potential that operational decisions will be based more firmly on political considerations than operational needs. The south is still unsettled posing both an opportunity for people to stoke provocations and also as a challenge to a military preoccupied with politics.

While the focus on the Army is obvious, I think it is also interesting what the new Navy Chief had to say. History indicates that the Navy's professionalism increased when they turned their back on political intervention. They have been the least political active of the services over recent years. The Navy is still hoping to acquire some second hand submarines from Germany, a plan they need approved by the current government. The Navy acquired Southeast Asia's only aircraft carrier, the HTMS CHAKRI NARUEBET, after the 1992 upheavals when it remained outside of the convulsions and violence at that time. (The signing of the purchase and the actual commencement of work in Spain spanned the military backed government and the civilian government.) That neutrality seems to be what the new Navy chief is stating this time around:

He said on Monday that under his leadership he was confident the navy would not get involved in politics and its personnel would be career soldiers.

Indonesia looking to buy second hand F-16C/D aircraft from the US

2011-10-04T22:39:24+11:00

This article from the Jakarta Post reports that Indonesian Air Force officers will travel to the US to acquire second hand F-16C/Ds that are currently stored in the aircraft boneyard in Arizona. The details of the purchase are:

The 30 aircraft will come free of charge. But six of them will be cannibalized for their parts. The Indonesians are expected to spend US$400 million to US$600 million equipping the rest with advanced avionics and weaponry and buying 28 Pratt and Whitney engines.

On the face of it this seems to be a good deal. Yes, Indonesia will still need to integrate the weapons and avionics but it has had US aircraft for a while so hopefully this upgrade work will not be technologically difficult. Where the news starts getting a bit more questionable is talk of politicians wanting the air force to avoid getting reliant on US weaponry again. This has been an ongoing Indonesian ambition since the Leahy provisions were passed into US law about ten years ago. The rationale is that if the Indonesian military becomes overly reliant on the US for weapons, including spare parts, then Indonesia will be vulnerable to another US arms embargo. The problem is the flip side, over diversification of Indonesian weapon systems. The SU-27s and SU-30s are still without weapons and there are reports that their electrical systems are incompatible with existing Indonesian systems. Indonesia has British, US, Russian and South Korean aircraft. Who would want to be an Indonesian logistics officer.

Another interesting paragraph in the article is where critics, not further defined, give a good list of alternates for acquisitions.

Critics question why greater priority is not being given to maritime reconnaissance aircraft, ocean-going patrol craft and transport planes, but protecting a nation's air space is a source of pride for a military - and a president - concerned about national sovereignty.

Worth a read.

Ancient Chinese copper sword discovered in Jiangxi Province

2011-10-03T22:55:00+11:00

(Source: www.china.org.cn)

A well preserved warring states sword has been found in East China according to this article:

A copper sword dating back more than 2,200 years has been discovered in east China's Jiangxi Province, local archaeologists said.

The design and shape of the sword indicate that it was forged during the Warring States Period (475 BC - 221 BC), according to Li Guoli, curator of the Nanchang Museum, where the sword is currently being stored.

Still worried about China's new ASBM, the untested one

2011-10-03T22:39:54+11:00

The DF-21D (Source: www.china-defense-mashup.com)

The word capability is a very over-used term in military circles, especially amongst analysts and journalists. Just because a country acquires a new weapon it does not mean that the country has a new capability. True, a badly used bomb is still a bomb but it may not deliver to its full potential if it is not used properly. An untested weapon is also not really a capability. This is all just a long introduction to explaining why I am bemused about all the hype surrounding the DF-21D anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) supposedly being developed or even deployed in China. This article at the East Asia Forum is more restrained than most but it is still painting the untested DF-21D as a game changer for the US Navy when operating in the Pacific Ocean:

Chinese military planners, without even fully testing the ASBM system, have placed US forces in a challenging position. Even if General Chen’s statement was an exaggeration or a theoretical range, this debate demonstrates the difficulties US strategists face in dealing with this new weapon. And now with the possibility of a larger range, US planners will need to ponder long and hard if and how they might use surface combatants in the Pacific Ocean during a conflict.

To get confusing for a moment, the paragraph above actually followed the paragraph that I have posted below, that showed really how incomplete the development of the DF-21D was:

US strategists must also make tactical judgments based only on intelligence and second hand reports. The PLA has tested components of the missile system and may have done various land-based tests but has never tested the DF-21D in the open ocean against a moving target. This denies US planners the capability to make much more accurate predictions about the range and operational capabilities of the system. [My emphasis]

It is reasonable to want to know what weapons are being developed but it is also important to know when a weapon is a weapon and not just an experiment. A number of weapons have been tested over the years and have never made it to operational service. I am not an expert on missiles nor on Chinese R&D but I strongly suspect that the DF-21D would still need to be tested to confirm that it can do everything that analysts claim. The test would have to include launch, flight, targeting, guidance, terminal flight and detonation. This is not questioning China's technological ability, the country probably could build this weapon but they would need to test it. This weapon my be in a factory in China but until it is properly tested then it is a bit much to have the US Navy worrying about crossing the Pacific Ocean.

The neighbours are still worried about China's military

2011-09-14T21:18:56+10:00

A read of the Channel news Asia website today showed that politicians in both Japan and Taiwan remarked about their respective concerns over China's military growth. In Japan, the new Japanese Prime Minister told the Japanese Diet of his concerns about China's military:

Japan's new Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda said Wednesday he was concerned about China's military build-up, urging his giant neighbour to act as a "responsible member of the international community".

While on a visit to the the US the new Taiwanese opposition leader talked of her plans to strengthen Taiwan's defense posture:

Taiwan's opposition presidential candidate on Tuesday assured the United States she would not whip up tensions with China if elected but pledged to boost defense spending to counterbalance a rising Beijing.

These similar statements are probably more about the similarities in the respective politics of Taiwan and Japan rather than about any new issues with China. Both countries are concerned about China's military but there has been no recent specific trigger. The calls by themselves are not unique and were probably targeted at domestic audiences rather than China.

The US DoD's annual report on China is out, as is the Chinese reaction

2011-08-26T06:28:46+10:00

The annual report for 2011 by the US Department of Defence (DoD) on China's military developments has been released. The report covered off on the latest military developments of interest to the US, including China's new aircraft carrier and the reported development of an anti-ship ballistic missile. The report seemed balanced and continued to push the theme that China is developing and should be more transparent in what its military policy is. Not surprisingly the report was written from the perspective of US concerns and so focused very much on maritime issues. Two of the three special topics were maritime focused and there was also a chapter on China and Taiwan. The carrier received prominent mention even though it has only conducted a single sea trial. The anti-ship ballistic missile rated discussion but there have been no tests of this capability. The land component of China's forces received less coverage and a land focus was also not prevalent. The report mentioned Central Asia as well as the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) but these topics did not gain much prominence. A report on the current US military would no doubt talk about counter-insurgency but this report mentioned that term once and that was in relation to a Chinese need to combat a Taiwanese insurgency should China ever invade the island.

The coverage of China's aircraft carrier program was sanguine. It was also more reasonable than much of the press reporting over the last few weeks. It talked about a program, recognising that the current ex-Ukrainian carrier is one step in that program and will offer only a limited capability.

China’s aircraft carrier research and development program includes renovation of the ex-VARYAG, which could begin sea trials in 2011, although without aircraft. It will likely serve initially as a training and evaluation platform, and eventually offer a limited operational capability. China could begin construction of a fully indigenous carrier in 2011, which could achieve operational capability after 2015. China likely will build multiple aircraft carriers with support ships over the next decade. [Emphasis added]

The report was also less strident about the anti-ship ballistic missile and did not go as far as recent Taiwanese claims that the missile was already operationally deployed.

China is developing an anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) based on a variant of the CSS-5 medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM). Known as the DF-21D, this missile is intended to provide the PLA the capability to attack large ships, including aircraft carriers, in the western Pacific Ocean. The DF-21D has a range exceeding 1,500 km and is armed with a maneuverable warhead.

While the US is obviously concerned about China's maritime power projection and countries in Southeast Asia share that concern the paper does lose balance in not providing the same level of coverage to China's land borders. The papers does include this section, and what is below is the whole section from the report:

Central Asia. China has several important interests in Central Asia. Most notably, China is interested in acquiring energy and natural resources. Beijing has pursued multiple agreements with energy-rich Central Asian states. This includes a pipeline deal that will extend from Turkmenistan through Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan into China.

Beijing is also interested in Central Asia from a domestic security perspective. From the domestic security standpoint, Beijing hopes to undermine support for China’s Uighur separatists, who share religious, ethnic, and linguistic connections to groups in Central Asia. Beijing believes that Islamic radicalism and competing political ideologies could destabilize an already fragile security situation in Western China.

China has used the multilateral Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which it co-founded, to address border security, counter-terrorism, and regional security.Beijing has also conducted bilateral and multilateral exercises with SCO member states to enhance China’s regional influence and build cohesive opposition to Uighur activities. [Emphasis added]

The report needed to address China's maritime power projection but I believe that it undersells what China is doing in Central Asia. China obviously wants to influence what occurs in East Asia and Southeast Asia but China perceives the threats to come from within. Maybe the US is seeing China through an American paradigm and not paying enough attention to how China views its own place in the world.

If the DoD report was balance then that tone was matched by the response from China through the official Xinhua news agency.

The U.S. Department of Defense on Wednesday unveiled its annual report on China's military, recognizing and welcoming China's contribution to international safety and security, while still overlooking the country's peaceful defense policy.

I think the DoD report was fair and was not alarmist. It was a report written for the US and perhaps not as useful in other centres but it is still worth a read to understand China's military modernisation over the last 12 months and also how it was seen by the US DoD.

Some quick links, Wednesday 24 August 2011

2011-08-24T23:03:30+10:00

- The MILF have confirmed that they rejected the latest peace proposal from the Philippines Government but it does not mean negotiations are dead.

- They have also asked for 10 days to sort out their splintering faction, the BIFF.

- The full details on the proposal have not been released but apparently the MILF were requesting two senatorial positions be reserved for the Bangsamoro 'sub-state.'

Still awaiting the US DoD annual report on China's military capability

2011-08-24T22:52:36+10:00

While many people in the world were awaiting the final installment of the Harry Potter saga, a small group of keen China defence watchers were being kept on the edge with the ongoing delay to the release of the annual US DoD report on China's military capabilities. The Wall Street Journal blog quoted one US Republican who was keen to have a read. He also showed his displeasure at the delay back in May as well. That same article had a good list of what people would hope to see in the report. Last year the report was also released around this time of year despite being due in March. Apparently the report will be out this week. It may not be Harry Potter but there will be people awaiting it with almost as much 'excitement.' I think the Chinese themselves will be amongst that list.

Some people are having trouble coping with the delay

A tale of two ships - one from Vietnam and one from the Philippines

2011-08-24T22:32:16+10:00

The last few days have seen news stories about the latest additions to two regional fleets, but the similarities of the intent of the announcements highlights the differences. Vietnam has seen the arrival of its second newly built Gepard Class Frigate while the Philippines has publicised the arrival of the largest vessel in the navy, a 44-year old former US Coast Guard Hamilton Class Cutter. The difference is stark given that both have had recent 'disputes' with China over incidents in the South China Sea.

Vietnamese Gepard Class Frigate (Source: Defpro.com)

Philippines Hamilton Class Cutter (Source: PhilStar)

It is not a just comparison to only look at the ages of the two vessels and decide that one is more capable that the other but it is not completely unfair. It is legitimate to see the Vietnamese ship as being a more integrated vessel that has been constructed to operate in the current maritime threat environment while the new ship for the Philippines was built for a job and age different to what is now intended. By way of example as to the modifications required the Philippines is talking about arming the cutter with missiles.

“The next step is to give the ship missile capability. This is technically feasible for a song. Its 76mm gun, though rapid firing, is no match to the capability of the naval powers in the region, which can fire a missile salvo from way beyond the horizon,” he [Parañaque City Rep. Roilo Golez] said.

The ship has been re-designated as a Frigate and will become the flagship of the Philippines Navy. The same article discussed the use of the ship to defend the West Philippines Sea (aka the South China Sea). Naval power is not cheap and the Philippines is possibly spending good money after bad. This ship will be a symbol, it will need a fleet and aircover to make it a viable deterrent. Upgrading the ship will not be easy either. I am not sure to what standards a USCG Cutter is built to but I suspect that it was not built to incorporate the lessons that were learned in the Falklands War, especially as the Falklands occurred after the ship was constructed.

The same article quoted a defence 'shopping list' from the Philippines President:

For the Air Force

jet trainers
surface attack aircraft
air defense radars
long-range patrol aircraft
close air support aircraft

For the Navy

strategic sea-lift vessels
off-shore patrol vessels
naval helicopters
possibly a submarine [My comment - a single submarine is not a capability, it is a waste of money.]

For the Army

new assault rifles
armor assets
tanks
armored personnel carriers
force protection equipment like helmets and bulletproof vests

I do not think this list is well thought out although I have not checked through the Defence White Paper to see if there is any strategic guidance behind this announcement. Although, if there was a white paper on defence then that would probably be from the previous administration and so the strategic guidance may be slightly different. The following comment from the President of the Philippines does not fill me with hope on the strategic direction being adopted.

“With regard to the equipment I want…I want everything. But what we will acquire, we have lead-in jet trainer… to keep the skills of the jet pilots, especially the fighter pilots still active. We won’t have the fighter jet but we will have these lead-in jet trainers to keep their skill levels,” Aquino told reporters at arrival ceremonies for the BRP Gregorio del Pilar at Pier 13 in Manila. (Source)

Atmospheric picture of the Black Flag Army in Vietnam

2011-08-22T22:52:28+10:00

Black Flag Soldiers lying in ambush, 1883 (Source: Flickr)

I am reading Colonial Armies in Southeast Asia at present and I am halfway through a chapter about the French Colonial Army in Vietnam. The chapter discussed the Black Flag Army, which was a Chinese force of former Taiping rebels who had crossed over in to Tonkin to avoid the mopping up by the Qing Imperial Army. The Tonkin Rulers found them useful as a means to combat the French in the 1880s and eventually to draw the Chinese into the war against the French. In having a quick hunt around the net I came across the picture above that appears to have been done to illustrate a 19th century magazine or paper. If you like the above style then I recommend the Flickr account of Huongdieu, the source of the picture, as it has a number of similarly themed pictures.

The Mongolian Honour Guard have a cool uniform

2011-08-22T22:28:28+10:00

Source (and more photos): Seattle PI

It may be just me but I think that the Mongolian Honour Guard have a cool uniform. Genghis Khan might not have been a fan but they beat some of the other bland uniforms out there.

Some quick links, Monday 22 August 2011

2011-08-22T22:21:12+10:00

- North Korea has seized South Korean assets at the Mt Kumgang resort and given the South Koreans there 72 hours to depart...that won't go down well.

- The Philippines largest warship, a former USCG cutter has arrived in Manila Bay.

- Nothing says law and order control like deploying sharp-shooters around East Java to keep the Idul Fitri exodus under control.

A new peace deal on the table for the MILF

2011-08-22T22:03:59+10:00

Source: Channel News Asia article

The Government of the Philippines is reportedly offering another autonomy deal to the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF). This is after a previous autonomy deal was scrapped because of a Supreme Court decision that said the deal interfered with traditional land ownership rights.

"This proposal presents the possibility of a more empowered, more workable and thus, more genuine autonomy of a Bangsamoro (Filipino Muslim) region," the government said in a statement summarising its offer.

The details are not clear but the hints from the government are that the basic idea is that this deal would expand the Autonomous region of Muslim Mindanao (ARMM Official Website). The ARMM has not been a great success due to poor government funding and also because of mismanagement by the ARMM leadership. A poor deal would not bring peace but would probably see the MILF splinter as the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) did because of factions that were unhappy with the the original ARMM deal.

Media reports claim South Korea is close to being chosen to supply submarines to Indonesia

2011-07-21T22:00:09+10:00

There are South Korean media reports claiming that Taufik Kiemas, the Speaker of Indonesia's Upper House of Parliament, informed Daewoo Heavy Shipbuilding and Marine Engineering officials that their company is almost certain to be chosen to supply submarines to the Indonesian Navy. I blogged about this acquisition program recently.

"Indonesia will likely pick Korea as the preferred bidder for its submarine acquisition program, worth $1.08 billion, industrial sources said Thursday. ..“France has been practically eliminated from the race,” an official of Korea's Daewoo Shipbuilding and Marine (DSME) said, asking for anonymity." (Korea Times)

"Indonesia is close to picking Korea's Daewoo Shipbuilding and Marine Engineering as the priority negotiating partner for a submarine project worth US$1.08 billion...A senior government official said Taufik Kiemas, the speaker of the Indonesian People's Consultative Assembly, told Prime Minister Kim Hwang-sik on Wednesday morning that Daewoo is virtually certain to get the nod for the project. "There still are some more processes to follow, but the deal will be struck, unless something comes up," the official said." (Chosun Ilbo)

It will not be surprising if Korea picks this contract up because Indonesia and Korea have developed a strong relationship in the defence industry arena. Indonesian submarines were repaired in Korea and two years ago there was talk of a counter trade deal between the two countries as involving Korean made submarines and Indonesian made CN-235 aircraft.

Indonesia's population expected to double by 2045 - can Indonesia cope?

2011-07-19T23:37:28+10:00

I was listening to Australia's ABC radio program Connect Asia and they had a story discussing some of the results of the 2010 Indonesia census. The key result was the projected population growth in Indonesia.

"Indonesia is being confronted with a rapidly growing population, projected to double to 450 million by 2045. The Indonesian Government faces a serious challenge in dealing with a potential population boom that could result in one out of every 20 people in the world being Indonesian."

The expert being interviewed was Professor Terry Hull from the The Australian Demographic & Social Research Institute at the Australian National University. Obviously the figure of 450 million is a projection and things can change through either natural causes or human intervention but the growth prediction is staggering.

In a generation Indonesia will need to greatly improve infrastructure, access to employment, public services, etc to cope with this growth. Professor Hull believed that Indonesia would not be able to meet this challenge and I suspect that the growth may just be too much for Indonesia to handle. It is always easy to be gloomy about these situations but I think the pessimism in this case is justified. Any democracy has trouble coping with programs that run beyond the electoral cycles of the government in power, especially when the results will not be seen for several electoral cycles in the future. This is more so the case in Indonesia where the democracy is getting stronger but the party system is still weak and corruption is endemic.

There are a number of consequences from this type of major population growth and some of them are discussed below.

Population growth in major cities. It is obvious that the major growth will occur where the greatest population concentration is, in the big cities. So places like Jakarta and Surabaya will grow and will connect even more with their surrounding areas to form vast urban centres. There will be more pressure inside the cities for jobs and decent standards of living.

Drift to other areas. A counter movement will also occur as people move or are moved to other areas of Indonesia. Bali will probably see more workers seeking employment as it is viewed as a place where people can make money due to tourism. Transmigration may be increased to reduce the burden on Java and Sumatra.

Regional dissatisfaction. Not only will areas like Papua have to put up with more new comers but they will potentially see more resources tapped and sent out of the provinces to fund other projects. There will be greater unemployment. Aceh will also be a candidate for this situation. Obviously, dissatisfaction coupled with high unemployment rates among young males is not a good combination in areas with a history of rebellion. This also goes for places in Kalimantan that have seen outbreaks of ethnic tensions between local groups and transmigrants.

Radicalism. Radical ideology will not disappear easily, if ever. High unemployment and economic problems can be good breeding criteria for radical elements, especially at the thuggish end of the spectrum. Where that unemployment also affects the educated middle class then there is the chance to see terrorists emerge that have beset the world over the last decade. The terrorists of 9/11 and also in the leadership of JI are not uneducated thugs, they are educated middle class. That radical element will remain small, but even a handful amongst 450 million could still be a lot of people.

There are other problems that could be discussed but these were some that came quickly to me. Indonesia will not be alone in facing major population growth and this post was prompted by the census result more than anything else. While the problems in the South China Sea make the headlines at the moment, it is this slowly growing problem that will have a major strategic impact in years to come but will develop so gradually so as to be almost imperceptible. It will not be a single headline but a series of headlines as the multitude of problems emerge. It is no slight on Indonesia to say that the country may not be able to cope, because handling a doubling of a population over a generation would be a big ask for any country.

A historic picture on the threat from Asia - the Yellow Peril

2011-07-18T23:42:21+10:00

I was listening to the New Books in East Asian Studies Podcast on Michael Kevaak's Becoming Yellow: A short history on Racial Thinking. It was interesting to hear the development of the colour 'yellow' being used to describe Asians and then how this also emerged as the 'Yellow Peril.' Kevaak discussed a picture that was created on the orders of Kaiser Wilhelm II of Germany in 1895. It showed St Michael with a group of armed women, including Britannia, peering from a cliff top at an approaching, menacing Buddha. The picture was reproduced in Harper's Weekly thus reaching a wide audience.

Peoples of Europe, guard your dearest goods (Source)

I thought it was a spectacular picture and also somewhat ironic knowing what we do about what was coming. The threat from the east was actually the Kaiser himself with World War One approaching the countries of Western Europe. This picture was a sign of the times of its creation with concern over a rising Asia. Japan had just conquered China in the Sino-Japanese War of 1894-95 and was at the start of its rise. In some respects the view painted above also passed for 'strategic assessment' with commentators talking about the rise of Asia. Kevaak does not just attribute this view to racism but to a received history of the Mongolian invasion of Europe when the countries of Europe were threatened by an Asiatic people. It is easy to forget that the Mongols made it to Poland and were not actually stopped by the Western European knights. The fear of the Mongols was passed by word of mouth throughout Europe and Mongols scouts were even sighted near Vienna.

It would be easy to link this image to some of the modern statements made about China's rise but through serendipity I also recently listened to the Lowy Institute's launch of their 2011 poll and I was struck by the following statistic [using a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 means 'strongly disagree' and 10 means 'strongly agree']:

"Australians also agree that ‘Australia is right to worry about Indonesia as a military threat’ (with a mean of 6.1 also little changed from 2006 when it rated 6.2). One-third (33%) of Australians agree quite strongly, choosing a number from 8 to 10. Once again attitudes are harder amongst older Australians with those 60 years old or older more likely to hold this view than those 18 to 29 years of age (with a mean of 6.7 compared with 5.3)."

It seems that the thought of the 'Yellow Peril' is not dead.