Daily Post - Gog in the Bay

The bigger picture

2009-11-06T11:53:55Z

COUNCILS across Wales have been grappling for far too long with the issue of surplus places in our schools.
Yet whenever a closure or merger is proposed, cue bedlam as the opposition explodes to threaten a politician's job.
If local authorities wanted a lead - or someone else to blame - First Minister Rhodri Morgan gave it in answer to a Senedd question by Lib Dem AM Peter Black on the impact of the draft budget on investment in school buildings.
The FM responded:
"The key is that we have a problem with surplus school places, and if we do not do something about it, it will reach 20%.
"There will always be surplus school places, but there should not ever be more than 10%, so we need to take action to ensure that the problem is addressed.
"We probably need to see a reduction from 1,500 primary schools to 1,350, and we probably need to see a reduction from 220 secondary schools to 200.
"We need to see, in some cases, a tertiary solution to the post-16 problem.
"That is the strategic approach; it is not a comment on any individual school, but that is roughly the strategic approach that will best deliver the curriculum and provide wider choice for learners."
Tory AM for Clwyd West Darren Millar is already sounding the alert: "Dozens of schools in Conwy and Denbighshire are fearing closure as local authorities consider plans to 'modernise education' in the area."
There may be trouble ahead.

Power cut

2009-11-04T07:58:32Z

SO much of the history of the National Assembly has been characterised by what it can't do rather than what it can.
Early arguments flared over the legal sale of beef on the bone; the declaration of a GM crop-free zone; or imposing a smoking ban in public places.
More recent spats concerned the power to suspend the right-to-buy a council home, and most sensitively over laws to demand services in the Welsh language.
Why is any of this stuff important?
Well, it strikes at the heart of the constitutional settlement, over who takes these key decisions which affect all our lives.

]]> A consensus on the Welsh language has been clear for most to see.
The power to legislate over matters concerning the Welsh language should rest in Wales at the National Assembly.
The rest should be detail.
But the politics runs much deeper than that.
After two years, toiling with Westminster, AMs - many with a heavy heart - yesterday agreed a 'legislative competence order' which would transfer powers down the M4.
Labour and Plaid Cymru Ministers, for whom the language legislation is a key plank in their coalition deal, agreed a trade off.
MPs have set boundaries for the scope of legislative power they wanted to release to AMs in another elected body.
Whether you believe this is a good thing or a bad thing really quantifies your support for, or faith in, the devolution process.
One key issue concerned a right of appeal by organisations who may be required under new laws to deliver services in Welsh.
There must be a route to challenge the law based on a test of 'reasonableness and proportionality', described by Assembly lawyers as 'novel and unprecedented', although just about enforceable given the will of both parliament and Cardiff Bay.
No previous Legislative Competence Order has proposed this kind of qualification.
But proposals for a right of veto by the Secretary of State for Wales over scrapping the right-to-buy by a future Assembly was pronounced as legally flawed.
Labour Welsh secretary Peter Hain, who devised the system of gradual power transfer to the Assembly, is adamant that the process works.
Finally yesterday, a Labour AM allowed frustration with the LCO system to spill over into the public arena.
The ministerial fix over the language to appease MPs ran rough-shod over the views of AMs who scrutinised the original proposals in Cardiff Bay.
One of those, mid and west AM Alun Davies, let his anger boil over.
"By inserting the grounds by which we are allowed to legislate, parliament and Westminster are not conferring legislative competence but telling us how we can and how we can't use that competence.
"It sets a precedent I regret. The precedent means we won't be able to legislate as we see fit. This process only works where there's consensus, it doesn't work where there's controversy and difficult issues to address.
"It's time to move forward to a referendum (on full legislative powers) and time to consider how this place works."
Only a referendum on the future of the Assembly can settle this.

Anoraks at the ready

2009-10-28T00:01:00Z

FETCH that calculator and don your favourite anorak, pull up a comfy chair, and plump those cushions.
Christmas arrived early in Cardiff Bay as politicos were treated to the first YouGov opinion poll based exclusively on Wales.
In the first of what is hoped to be many, the internet pollsters aimed to plug a yawning gap in Welsh political understanding, while at the same time prompting a myriad of debates and analyses of the sub-layers of detail lodged in the mass of statistics.
What joy.

]]> On the face of it, the overall headline findings - Conservatives to surge, Labour to slump; people mainly happy with devolution, backing for a referendum; - were confirming what many suspected from previous research.
Then there was the detail.
For example: 63% of the 1,078 adults quizzed support a referendum on primary lawmaking powers for the Assembly, with 42% saying they would vote yes if it were held tomorrow.
Some 14% supported Welsh independence, 34 % a Welsh Parliament with full lawmaking powers and tax varying powers, 24% would keep the status quo; while 17% supported abolishing the Assembly.
Digging deeper throws up some interesting comparisons.
While overall 42% would vote Yes in a referendum on a law-making Assembly and 37% against, the split in the parties would be Conservatives 32% Yes to 53% No; Labour 44%-41%; Lib Dems 38%-44% and Plaid Cymru 80%-9%.
The assessment of the ability of Labour's candidates to replace Rhodri Morgan was also brought into sharp focus.
After nine and a half years as First Minister, Mr Morgan incredibly polls 63% who think he does well (very or fairly) against 19% who think he does badly (very or fairly), an approval rating of +44%.
Ieuan Wyn Jones clocks up a +8% rating, Tory Nick Bourne -12% and Lib Dem Kirsty Williams -2%.
Worryingly for aspiring first ministers, around half voters 'don't know' if they would do well in the top job.
Labour's candidates for the Welsh party leadership travelled to Rhyl last night with some grim statistics ringing in their ears.
Counsel general and Bridgend AM Carwyn Jones scored a creditable +18% approval for the job across Wales, with Huw Lewis on +3% and Edwina Hart on -1%.
But Mr Jones logged a 'Don't Know Factor' of 54%; Mr Lewis 59% and Ms Hart 45%.
Ms Hart said: "This straw poll shows quite clearly that people know me and know what I stand for. As a minister, you have to take tough decisions which not everyone may agree with - but I stand by those decisions because I believe that they are in the best interests of the people of Wales."
Huw Lewis on the feeling of isolation in the North from Cardiff said: "Every trip I've made to North Wales in the last two or three weeks, this idea of dislocation comes up again and again.
"That feeling means something, no matter what the investment stats might say."
He pledged himself as First Minister, to 'spend so much time here that people will be sick of the sight of me'.
Carwyn Jones was happy waiting for the 'real' ballot of Labour and unions and affiliates.

Straws in the wind

2009-10-20T23:01:00Z

AS another milestone looms into view on the journey for the next Labour leader in Wales, a fascinating landscape is emerging.
Carwyn Jones will announce today that almost half of Welsh Labour MPs have now publicly declared their support for him.
So who is leading the race in this 'marathon not a sprint'?
Update: Today's Ladbrokes odds: Carwyn Jones 2/5 Edwina Hart 11/4 Huw Lewis 8/1.

]]> Jones' 14 MP backers include six of the seven in North Wales, something his campaign team claims shows the counsel general's pan-Wales appeal.
Edwina Hart, meanwhile, seems to have sewn up the leadership of some of Wales biggest trades unions, Unite with 100,450 members (she is a member too), the Communication Workers Union 14,000 and Community with 10,000.
Unison with 52,000 are urging their members to back Carwyn.
The trades unions and affiliated bodies with a potential of 250,000 votes, carry the same clout as AMs, MPs and MEP with 55 votes, because each make up one third of the electoral college system.
If Jones indeed carries the elected members' section and former TUC Wales chair Hart the unions and affiliates, the one member one vote ballot in the third section among Labour Party members in Wales becomes crucial.
The deadline for 'supporting nominations' which will appear in ballot material sent to voters is tomorrow.
So far then Merthyr AM Huw Lewis, announced Aberconwy CLP's support yesterday, remains the outsider in the betting with smallest numbers of declarations.
Of course, those who vote may not follow the guide given them by union officials or indeed their local MP or AM.
But the historical tendency has been to follow a lead.
Labour refuses to give its membership figures to the media, although with members leaving the party in significant numbers, it is well short of the trades union vote, although it carries the same weight in the electoral college.
Voters get to choose their 1st, 2nd and 3rd preferences in the ballot.
If the closeness of the battle is repeated among party members, none of the three runners might reach the magic 50% threshold in the ballot required for instant victory.
In that case, the third candidate will drop out and the second preferences of every vote cast will be examined and distributed among the remaining two.
So those second preferences will also be a much sought after commodity.
Yesterday Ladbrokes were calling the odds at Carwyn Jones 4/6 , Edwina Hart 2/1, and Huw Lewis 5/1.
That shows a narrowing of odds on Mrs Hart with Lewis moving further out of the reckoning in just over a week.
The independent balloting company will begin to mail out the forms to those eligible to vote on November 2, postal strikes notwithstanding.
The ballot will close at 5pm on November 26.
In between will come five hustings meetings with party members across Wales, the first at 7pm on October 27 at The Little Theatre in Rhyl.
Labour officials are also negotiating with TV channels about a televised debate.
The result of the election is due at 4pm on December 1, when a leader-elect of the Welsh Labour Group on the National Assembly will take centre stage to replace Rhodri Morgan.
As yet, there is still all to play for.

Eleanor's sales on song

2009-10-18T11:45:11Z

Singing North Wales Lib Dem AM Eleanor Burnham says that sales of her CD are 'going very well' at the party's autumn conference in Wrexham.
The £5 collection of her favourite songs was compiled with the help of musician Hywel Wigley, son of Plaid's Dafydd and renowned harpist Elinor and husband of harpist to the Royals Catrin Finch.
The aim is to reach at least 1,000 copies sold, she says.
The profit, above her costs to produce the album, will be donated to Marie Curie and the Lib Dems.
"It shows that we Lib Dems have interests other than politics," says the former eisteddfod medal winning songstress.
But she will still have to enter the CD on the register of members' interests at the Assembly, she adds.

Now with updated Blogroll

2009-10-16T10:56:22Z

Any suggestions for the updated blogroll welcome, let me know.

Credit card probe at troubled agency

2009-10-14T06:46:40Z

THE cold wind of change is about to blow through the halls of Assembly Government civil servants in the economy department.
In particular, it is about to become fairly uncomfortable for some working overseas in the prestige inward investment arm, International Business Wales.
Two quite separate, but nevertheless connected reports, shed some bright light on activities in the division which took over from the Welsh Development Agency.
Permanent Secretary Dame Gillian Morgan, who heads the WAG civil service, was given the task of sorting out a mess which started with a spat over first class air tickets in July.
Welsh Lib Dem leader Kirsty Williams' intervention prompted a two-month independent audit of the credit card expenses of IBW's overseas operation, running to 7,000 transactions, worth £1.2m.
This 'forensic examination' by accountants KPMG unearthed some 781 as potentially dodgy under the rules, and 817 others for which there was 'unclear policy'.

]]> An additional internal investigation has now started into the 781 bills worth £294,753 to try to find an explanation.
But staff who strayed outside authorised spending could be forced to repay the money, or face dismissal.
Morale must have already been on the slide given that a review by expert Glenn Massey into IBW's performance was already storing up a fiercely critical assessment of the investment strategy - outdated on a 70s, 80s model, and inefficient.
Total staff had fallen by a third from 200 to 137 since 2006.
Dame Gillian insisted a "small number" of expenses transactions at IBW clearly breached policy and may result in disciplinary action.
The "unusual items" included £345.22 on a residential electricity bill, AA membership; £553.87 on children's school text books; £3,394.44 on hiring a bar to entertain clients during a Wales v South Africa rugby match; and a £15,372 bill to a mobile phone provider.
One first-class flight broke rules which allow staff to travel business class on flights longer than two-and-a-half hours.
Staff flew business class instead of economy, as they are required to do on shorter trips, in a "small number of cases".
Where people had used Air Miles credited from business trips for personal travel, they will be asked to repay the cost.
Some £1,500 was charged to the name 'Dummystaff' on the credit card account.
Dame Gillian revealed that the credit card procurement system is regarded as a good thing because it enables WAG to pay its bills promptly.
The IBW operation was more risky because of its nature and travel involved.
But she pointed out that nothing that had been reported to her required the involvement of the police.
As a result of the IBW exercise she had personally going through the transactions of every procurement credit card used in WAG, she said.
"I was a very bored bunny for two days. Very few things were picked up."
Civil servants can now look to months of preparation for the complete overhaul of the economy department planned by Ieuan Wyn Jones.

And the nominations are...

2009-10-12T12:10:57Z

NOMINATIONS closed at midday for the next leader of the Labour Group in the National Assembly.
Candidates required at least six nominations from among the 26 Labour AMs, including themselves.
The nominations and their supporters are:
EDWINA HART health minister (Gower): finance minister Andrew Davies (Swansea West); education minister Jane Hutt (Vale of Glamorgan); deputy social services Minister Gwenda Thomas (Neath); deputy presiding officer Rosemary Butler (Newport West); Val Lloyd (Swansea East); Jeff Cuthbert (Caerphilly); Janice Gregory (Ogmore); Sandy Mewies (Delyn); Christine Chapman (Cynon Valley).

CARWYN JONES counsel general (Bridgend): social justice and local government minister Brian Gibbons (Aberavon); environment minister Jane Davidson (Pontypridd); deputy regeneration minister Leighton Andrews (Rhondda); deputy skills minister John Griffiths (Newport East); chief whip Carl Sargeant (Alyn and Deeside); Lesley Griffiths (Wrexham); Alun Davies (mid and west Wales); Lorraine Barrett (Cardiff South and Penarth).

HUW LEWIS (Merthyr Tydfil): Ann Jones (Vale of Clwyd); Karen Sinclair (Clwyd South); Joyce Watson (mid and west Wales); Lynne Neagle (Torfaen); Irene James (Islwyn).

* First minister Rhodri Morgan will not endorse a candidate.
** Edwina Hart today announced the support of former Welsh Secertary Paul Murphy, MP for Torfaen, and ex-Wales Office minister Don Touhig, Islwyn.

The latest betting odds from Ladbrokes were: Jones 4/6; Hart 5/2; Lewis 7/2

Huw making a virtue out of his blooper

2009-10-07T12:43:52Z

LABOUR leadership hopeful Huw Lewis reveals his 'It'll be alright on the Night' moment.

LCO process requires sense of humour

2009-10-06T23:00:59Z

IT'S taken the best part of eight months of wrangling, and to-ing and fro-ing between Westminster and Cardiff Bay.
But Heritage minister Alun Ffred Jones was finally able to announce the 'final draft' of the legislative competence order (LCO) which, if approved at Westminster and the Senedd, will transfer law-making powers for the Welsh language to Wales.
The painful LCO process is all too well documented.
But it is a confirmation that the idea that MPs would merely 'rubber stamp' Assembly requests for additional powers was, well, plain fanciful.

]]> The Welsh Affairs Select Committee of the House of Commons has secured some significant amendments before releasing its hand on the lever of this particular power.
Now Welsh Secretary Peter Hain wants to hear a further debate in the Welsh Grand Committee - a gathering of all 40 Welsh MPs - on October 14.
Following that debate, the Secretary of State and Welsh Assembly Government 'will reflect further 'and, subject to the Assembly's approval, will present the draft LCO to Parliament later in the autumn, the Wales Office says.
Alun Ffred is confident that the One Wales commitments for official status for both English and Welsh, a language commissioner, and rights for Welsh speakers, can still be achieved.
He is hopeful of being able to secure the powers before the General Election, and introduce Welsh laws (a measure) before the 2011 Assembly poll.
But the Assembly minister isn't sure why the Secretary of State wants to listen to another Grand Committee debate.
"It (the Grand Committee) doesn't have a statutory role in the process as far as I know, but I look forward to hearing what they have to say," Mr Jones said.
The LCO procedure, which has also been blamed for other bids bogged down with Whitehall, was not his "preferred choice" of increasing the Assembly's power, the Plaid minister said
"But it's the process we have and I am getting on with it.
"I am pleased that during this process a clear consensus has emerged that there is now a need to update the current legislative framework."
Plaid AM Leanne Wood was less diplomatic labelling the upcoming debate in the Grand Committee as "pointless".
It should be cancelled so that Westminster can finally pass the powers to Wales, she said.
"This process has now been ongoing for the past two years, and the last thing the language needs now is more needless delays.
"Both an Assembly committee and a Westminster committee have looked at this issue at length and had their say.
"We must now get on with it, and let the Welsh Government legislate as soon as possible."
Alun Ffred was 'miffed' the details were released to journalists by the Wales Office before AMs.
But at least he's keeping his dry sense of humour intact.
He pointed out that 1,000 bodies set up by Royal Charter were now excluded from the LCO, including the Beneficial Institution for Relief of Aged and Injured Journeymen Tailors.

Now Huw's on line

2009-10-06T15:26:15Z

HUW Lewis has become the third candidate to place his bid for the leadership of Welsh Labour on the web.
It is bilingual, of course.
And the Merthyr Tydfil AM feels it is necessary to dispel some 'Myths' about him in a special section of the site:
Myth: Huw is against more powers for the Assembly and has never really supported devolution in Wales.
Myth: Huw was against the coalition and would try and tear up the One Wales agreement if he was elected First Minister.
Myth: Huw is hostile to the Welsh Language
Myth: Huw has a house near the Assembly in Cardiff Bay but only lives a 45 minute drive away in Merthyr - he's only in it for the money.
Myth: Huw Lewis can't hold West Wales
Myth: Huw Lewis AM was once had a chart hit with the single "The Power of Love"
Fact: Huw never did. That was this Huey Lewis.
*For the record, Huw stopped finding the Huey Lewis and the News gags funny about nine years ago, and always preferred this track anyway. (Cue Jennifer Rush)
Will any of the other candidates take to Mythbusting, I wonder?

Carwyn4Labour goes Live

2009-10-04T18:30:40Z

CARWYN Jones may not be launching his campaign for the Welsh leadership officially until tomorrow but there's a broad outline of his bid on line now at carwyn4labour.com
Maybe it's not as slicky stage-managed as Edwina's but in an introductory video, he aims to put to bed some of the question marks surrounding his appeal to the Labour movement.
There's an outline of his Bridgend background and family life in front of the bridge that gives the town its name.
And in Brewery Field rugby ground, he reveals his ambitions as First Minister for the next 'five to 10 years'.
He stresses his Labour Party credentials - from the age of 18, and as one of Wales' youngest councillors - and his ministerial expertise, especially during the foot and mouth disease crisis in 2001 when he made his name with the farming community.
"My politics are Labour politics," he says, emphasising it's possible to have devolution without leading to independence.
"There's no reason for us to to be independent, we would be worse off, cutting our ties with friends and family elsewhere in the UK.
"I'm proud to be Welsh but also proud to be British."

Now on Twitter

2009-10-03T08:53:51Z

Gog in the Bay is now tweeting at @tombod
This review is kind - but 7/10? Must try harder.

...and they're off!

2009-10-02T11:01:00Z

One minute past midday and the first candidates to succeed Rhodri Morgan as Welsh Labour leader have formally declared.
Even in these first statements, some flavour of the campaign ahead is emerging.
Edwina Hart AM for Gower and health minister - with backing from finance minister Andrew Davies - made a YouTube announcement via her new campaign website edwina4labour.com - impressively hi-tech.

Mrs Hart urges Labour voters both past and present to "Come home to Labour."
She adds: "We need a Strong voice for a Strong Wales. I believe I am that voice."
Huw Lewis, the Merthyr Tydfil AM, formally announced his intention to stand revealing the six nominations from Labour AMs required to proceed past the first hurdle in the selection.
Mr Lewis said: "Our party stands at a crossroads.
"We can plough on in the same direction, a direction that worked for us in the past, or we can take a new departure.
"All I ask from MPs, AMs, party members, trade unionists and affiliates is that they keep an open mind during the weeks ahead.
"I genuinely believe that this debate is too important for old ideas, alliances or prejudices to dictate decisions - I'll be very happy if people make up their minds on what they see and hear during the contest."
No official line from the Carwyn Jones camp just yet..except expect an official launch next week.
UPDATE: Vale of Clwyd AM Ann Jones and Clwyd South AM Karen Sinclair declare in favour of Huw Lewis.
Flintshire council Labour group leader Aaron Shotton says he's a Carwyn Jones man.
UPDATE 2: Ynys Mon MP Albert Owen is backing Carwyn Jones.
Former Labour council leader in Flintshire Alex Aldridge, a member of the All Wales Convention executive, says he's for Edwina Hart.
UPDATE 3: Check out the Daily Post online poll at www.dailypost.co.uk

...wait for it

2009-09-23T06:49:20Z

HE was happy to talk at length about the looming public spending squeeze.
He was even prepared to talk about the weather which had him swimming on Barry Island for the first time in 50 years.
But Rhodri Morgan said the media would have to remain patient about the timing of an announcement on his retirement.
There was just a hint that the swine flu crisis may well have receded sufficiently so as not to represent the 'force majeure' which could delay his exit.
But the First Minister was sticking - ever consistently - to his line of triggering a leadership battle 'around' his 70th birthday which happens next Tuesday.

]]> Mr Morgan will be presenting the 'Welsh Report' to the Labour Party Conference in Brighton on Sunday, followed by the traditional 'Welsh Night' in the Hilton Hotel.
Would he reveal his decision there? In England?
Asked about his departure at the weekly media conference, he said: "You have to be patient about what I'm going to say about these arrangements.
"When there's something to say on that subject, I will say it."
There was no certainty when swine flu would reach its autumn/winter peak, he said.
It was a factor but his retirement plans were only a "minor aspect" of dealing with swine flu.
That begs the question whether the pandemic could be equally a minor factor if the health minister Edwina Hart decides to contest a leadership election this autumn/winter.
It seems increasingly likely that the former social justice and finance minister will be a contender.
Finance minister Andrew Davies confirmed yesterday that after a great deal of thought, he did not intend to stand, for personal reasons.
But if Edwina did, he was ready to give her his backing.
"I think Edwina Hart has the personal qualities. She is decisive, shows very clear and strong leadership and is recognised," he said.
Mrs Hart, a former chair of Wales TUC, is expected to receive substantial support in the union side of the Labour ballot - should she decide to enter the race.
Counsel General Carwyn Jones AM for Bridgend and Huw Lewis AM for Merthyr Tydfil are other potential runners.
Plaid AM Leanne Wood was first up in First Minister's Question Time in the Senedd and took the opportunity to wish Mr Morgan a 'very enjoyable retirement' when he finally decides to head for his caravan in sunny Mwnt, west Wales.
But he could deliver one more service to Wales, she said, by agreeing to lead the 'Yes Campaign' for a full law-making parliament for our country.
Mr Morgan: "Your question is a bit previous."
He would remain AM for Cardiff West until May 2011.
But he added: "I would be surprised if I wasn't pitching in, in some way, on the referendum campaign, if and when it comes."
AMs are eagerly awaiting the erdict of the All Wales Convention, appointed by ministers to probe voters' attitudes towards devolution, which is due in November.
Mr Morgan wanted an "informed" vote when the time came.
He didn't want the referendum "diverted into other things by the general mood music".