Gold Digger: The Oscar Season

Predictions for Major Awards

2015-02-20T11:43:00.001-08:00

Our Final post pre Oscar is upon us. I've included potential surprises in each of the categories where applicable.

Best Picture

Will Win: Birdman

Should Win: Boyhood

How could Hollywood ever resist an attempt to award a film about entertainment? Why would any of us ever think that a film about regular people would ever win? The last film that was close to about a normal person was The Hurt Locker, as each of the last five years the Academy has honored only historical biopics and movies about the movies. This trend fixes to continue, and the question may is for how long. This seems to be a frustrating year for the Academy, as everyone is talking phooey amount them almost nonstop this award season, so if they choose a less controversial film, look for Boyhood or ever The Grand Budapest Hotel to take the cake. But with Birdman’s win at the PGA and DGA, it seems completely obvious that that will be the winner, because those guilds are mostly the same people that will be voting at the Oscars, and not those who choose the Globes and BAFTAs, which Birdman lost.

Best Actor

Will Win: Eddie Redmayne for The Theory of Everything

Should Win: Michael Keaton for Birdman

This is actually a much closer race than many are predicting. Redmayne seemed to have the race wrapped up shortly after the SAGs, however, with Birdman’s resurgence in the race, it seems weird that voters who have already gone out of their way to be different from the critics and pick Birdman as Best Picture, would not stay with Michael Keaton as Best Actor. Here’s a little breakdown of the race:

The key is that Hollywood is not doing well financially, and as you may know everything done in America is done because of money. The academy will most likely use their power to crown Redmayne the new young star of Hollywood, in hopes he can sell tickets in the future, where as Keaton is not expected to be a leading actor in major films. You still can't count out Keaton because of Birdman's excellent campaign and new-found surge of attention, but if money is on the line, go where the money is. Always.

Best Actress

Will and Should Win: Julianne Moore for Still Alice

There is going to be a lot of absolute sure-thing winners in this section, and this is one of them. Julianne Moore has been up now five times and never won. In fact, she is one of the few actresses to lose twice in the same year for acting. She was utterly remarkable and it would be a complete sock if she did not win, especially since Witherspoon and Cotillard have already won, and the other two girls are just up for their first time now. The real bet is if Moore will cry in her acceptance speech or if she will say she feels “honored” to be with the rest of the nominees

Best Supporting Actor

Will and Should Win: J.K. Simmons for Whiplash

Whiplash is an underdog contender in a couple races, but this one is a sure bet. Simmons has won everything there is to win for a supporting actor up to this point, although he is sort of a lead in the film. A great role of an antagonist that really delves deep into a relationship unlike one we have seen before in film. If Simmons, a beloved veteran actor of film, TV and Farmer’s insurance commercials, loses…just, no, he is not going to lose. Bet the house.

Best Supporting Actress

Will and Should Win: Patricia Arquette for Boyhood

Sadly, this could be the only award Boyhood takes home, but if the film wins nothing else, Arquette will win, as she has won virtually every award possible up till now. Therefore, if she loses, who wins? Emma Stone, I guess, but Boyhood has had a late campaign that favors Arquette, so this is a pretty easy one.

Best Director

Will Win: Alejandro G. Inarritu for Birdman

Should Win: Richard Linklater for Boyhood

You can usually predict this one by just looking at who wins the DGA. Inarritu is pretty much a lock, even though Linklater has won more awards overall. The other directors have no chance, it’s between these two and I would still be surprised (pleasantly of course) if Linklater won. The only reason being is that he is more established and has never won, or even been nominated for Best Director before. Inarritu has, in his slightly shorter career, also identified himself as an auteur, and the Oscars will be ready to crown him Hollywood royalty.

Best Original Screenplay

Will Win: Wes Anderson for The Grand Budapest Hotel

Should Win: Richard Linklater for Boyhood

This race seems close, but in all honesty, I think Grand Budapest is a clear favorite. It’s fresh off a win at the WGA and is poised to win several Oscars, but Birdman could still sneak after its late surge. I just think that the writers have already made up their minds between the two, and they just like Wes Anderson as well, who has actually never won in this category, so I would not be surprised if they gave Birdman director and Anderson Best script.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Will Win: for The Imitation Game

Should Win: Damien Chazelle for Whiplash

Not a great selection for a year with some great adaptations. The Imitation Game has got to win something, right? It’s very possible that the Academy has such a desire to spread the love to EVERY movie, and this for be Imitation Game’s chance at an Oscar, but something like The Theory of Everything may take it away. I doubt it though. If Gone Girl was up, then there would be a much better race, but understanding that film would involve people thinking about something, so might as well just go with whatever Harvey says.

Best Animated Feature

Will Win: How to Train Your Dragon 2

Should Win: Big Hero 6

Wow, never would’ve imagined this category without The LEGO Movie, but I guess a movie that comes out in February just cannot get nominated anymore. HTTYD2 is kind of a lock, with Big Hero 6 being a huge underdog contender, whose only chance at winning is appealing to those who don’t want something obvious. Being that Big Hero 6 is the only other film most voters are likely to have even watched, it has a small chance.

Best Foreign-Language Film

Will Win: Wild Tales (Argentina)

Should Win: Ida (Poland)

This is a tough one. I just have a hard time believing this race is between two movies with strong religious themes, Ida and Leviathan. The latter won the Golden Globe and is the handicapper’s odds-on-favorite, but this is my only real surprise pick, Wild Tales, which didn’t have a wide release, is a less challenging film that the other two. Also, the film was just released again in some markets, and I’ve noticed historically, Foreign Film has been used as sort of a marketing tool for films with upcoming releases, that’s another reason why I’m picking it.

Best Documentary Feature

Will and Should Win: Citizenfour

I’ve heard rumors that Virunga is the underdog big of the bunch. If that is the case then I guess your Documentary has to be on Netflix to win this category, which is kind of weird. I think enough people voting have seen and understand that Citizenfour is one of the boldest documentaries ever made, and giving it to anything else would be pretty crazy.

Predictions Part Deux

2015-02-19T10:20:00.005-08:00

Best Cinematography

Will and Should Win: Birdman- Emmanuel Lubezki

If there happens to be a hardcore Grand Budapest mini-sweep, Lubezki, who won his first Oscar for last year’s Gravity could be back to being shut out. I doubt it though, many are seriously gravitating towards Birdman, since it hits so close to home. None of the others have a chance.

Best Film Editing

Will and Should Win: Boyhood- Sandra Adair

With Birdman not up, probably because the film took about three days to edit, so that leaves space for Boyhood, which really is the best film of the bunch, to take the prize. Again, Grand Budapest could sneak in if the Academy decides to completely shut out Boyhood because that’s what they want you to think. Basically, a group of molemen squealing, “do you like us yet America?” Yeah, if you give it to Boyhood.

Best Production Design

Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel- Adam Stockhausen, Anna Pinnock

Should Win: Mr. Turner- Suzie Davies, Charlotte Watts

This is quite clear, it seems there a very few real races in the technical categories. Of course a world outside of the seemingly increasing philistine A.M.P.A.S., Mr. Turner might win, but Grand Budapest had great production design as well.

Best Costume Design

Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel- Milena Canonero

Should Win: Into the Woods- Colleen Atwood

This is another easy one, again without Birdman, it seems Grand Budapest will take home the most awards of the evening.

Best Hair/Makeup

Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel- Frances Hannon and Mark Coulier

Should Win: Guardians of the Galaxy- Elizabeth Yianni-Georgiou and David White

Another Grand Budapest win, they have at least 3-4 locked up.

Best Sound Mixing

Will and Should Win: American Sniper- John Reitz, Greg Rudloff and Walt Martin

This film has got to win something right? Well not necessarily, since it’s already won the box office award for the last couple months. The movie is surely a phenomenon, but Whiplash has a small shot at stealing this one away from Everybody Loves Sniper

Best Sound Editing

Will and Should Win: American Sniper- Alan Robert Murray and Bub Asman

Same thing as above, there is still a shot for a movie like Birdman or even Interstellar to take this, but American Sniper has got to be a clear favorite still at this point.

Best Visual Effects

Will Win: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes – Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, Daniel Barrett and Erik Winquist

Should Win: Interstellar- Paul Franklin, Andrew Lockly, Ian Hunter and Scott Fisher

Many are picking Interstellar because it is the only movie with actual thought required to watch it. I say, to hell with that, Hollywood already thinks for me. Besides, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes did pretty well with the Visual Effects Society, and there’s no Birdman or anything nominated. I would be VERY surprised if any of the other films won, even Guardians of the Galaxy, whose only prayer is to have the other two films split somehow.

Predictions...???!!!@@@##$$%

2015-02-19T10:20:00.002-08:00

Oscar Predictions Part 1

Having been such a long time since my last post, I’ll try to be as drawn out and detailed and lengthy as possible to make up for lost time. So, today let’s spend several minutes talking about films and songs that last only a handful of minutes.

Best Original Song:

Will and Should Win: “Glory” from Selma

This is pretty much a slam dunk. It has everything going for it, great use in a movie that is already getting pity votes because this is its only nomination other than Best Picture. Too bad we couldn’t nominate “Yellow Flicker Beat” to give it some competition. Not as embarrassing to admit than having just realized I subconsciously used a basketball analogy because black people are historically better at basketball (or at least that’s what this email from Spike Lee says).

Best Original Score

Will Win: Alexandre Desplat for The Grand Budapest Hotel

Should Win: Johan Johannsson for The Theory of Everything

This is a close race, The Theory of Everything having won a Golden Globe and BAFTA, while not being even close to as entertaining of a movie as Grand Budapest. However, Desplat is up twice, so even if he wins, he loses. That’s pretty sad. But if he wins, it will be the first time after having received 8 Oscar nominations in the last 9 years. Johannsson has never composed for a film before, but was able to put together a very complex and engaging score, and could be one of the obstacles of a Grand Budapest mini-sweep. Could be, but also, not.

Best Documentary Short

Will Win: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1

Should Win: The Reaper

This is a pretty easy one. Crisis Hotline has a couple things going for it: 1) It’s about veterans and helping veterans, and everyone knows that we have to help veterans because it’s the American thing to …blah blah….. and 2) It’s in English, because let’s be honest, who in Hollywood reads anything anymore, let alone a movie! If that was not a reality, than the Polish doc short, Joanna would have a shot.

Best Live Action Short

Will Win: Boogaloo and Graham

Should Win: Aya

Vegas has The Phone Call at a big favorite in this category. I just have a hard time believing that they’ll give it to two short films about crisis hotlines. I guess the only reason is because it’s one of the few in ENGLISH, however, Boogaloo and Graham is in English with English subtitles. Also, Boogaloo and Graham was funny and sweet, and probably the right choice for Oscar voters.

Best Animated Short

Will and Should Win: The Bigger Picture

Again kind of going against the general concensus on this, but I think The Bigger Picture was so imaginative and perfect for Oscar voters just as a 5 minute work of art. Fetch? Not really that big of a favorite unless nobody took the time to watch them, and that would be ridiculous since it takes less than an hour to watch them all. Also, I don’t know Daisuke Tsitsumi, former Pixar art director’s ties with the Oscar crowd, but if it’s strong, don’t be surprised to see his film The Dam Keeper sneak in.

Ok, so now Birdman is the favorite...

2015-02-10T13:18:00.000-08:00

Counting down the days, what we learned from the PGA and SAG awards.

2015-01-26T10:45:00.000-08:00

I promise no golf puns this time. Fore real.
A couple of huge surprises this weekend. The Producer's Guild chose Birdman as Best Picture of the year. The PGA has always been a close indicator for the Oscar for Best Picture, especially over the last several years. As many Producers vote for the Academy, it's often we see them push a film from underdog to favorite, such as The King's Speech or The Hurt Locker. It also solidifies a favorite's chances at an Oscar, like No Country for Old Men and Slumdog Millionaire.
However, the Producers have been wrong before. 2005, they failed to predict Crash's surprise win, and in 2006 picked Little Miss Sunshine, which didn't get much recognition at the Oscars aside from Best Supporting Actor.
It's been a while, and I don't think this really takes away from Boyhood's chances at the Oscar. Birdman failed to win the Golden Globe for Comedy over The Grand Budapest Hotel, which just got a rerelease in L.A.. Two comedies are likely to split voting, making it harder for either one to win. If you're looking for a Boyhodd contender, still look to The Imitation Game right now.
The LEGO Movie and Life Itself have both continued their tear at the PGA after having not been nominated by the Academy for Animated Feature and Documentary Feature respectively.

As for the SAG's, one wildcard came out of the vat of predictability, Eddie Redmayne's Stephan Hawking impersonation won over Michael Keaton's Birdman, despite the film winning Best Cast.
The SAG's are much stronger at pushing underdogs to favorites, and very rarely does someone win a SAG and a Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Drama and LOSE the Oscar. In fact, it's only ever happened to Russell Crowe for A Beautiful Mind, after he had just won a Best Actor Oscar the previous year for Gladiator while having LOST both the other categories for that film. He was also up against Denzel Washington, who had never won Best Actor before, although he did win Supporting Actor previously for Glory.

So this really does arouse some questions. is Eddie Redmayne the favorite? Is this race as close as Russell and Denzel? I believe so, and the most real scenario I can see playing out is this:
Birdman does not win picture, but Keaton wins Actor, the movie wins original screenplay and cinematography and we forget The Theory of Everything ever existed.

Or, just to change the narrative, some may opt to give Birdman picture and Redmayne actor to spread around the love that way. We'll see over the next few weeks if that continues to be the narrative. The big indicator is always the DGA. if Iñarritu wins that, I would say go with Birdman and Redmayne.

More of the good stuff next week.

The Real Problem with Diversity at the Oscars...and an idea of how to fix it.

2015-01-20T16:29:00.002-08:00

So, I may have been wrong about something.

In my reaction to the 87^th Oscar nominations, I said that if Selma was shut out completely, it might warrant some unwanted backlash. In truth, actually recognizing it as ONLY a Best Picture contender probably caused more backlash than just ignoring the movie completely.

The problem with the reaction to the lack of ethnic diversity is actually taking away from serious issues that the Academy does have. The Academy has the right to put up whomever they want, and we as spectators have the option to see the films and watch the ceremony on TV if we so desire. But to scope frustration that is quite clearly founded in the fact that Selma, a biopic (similar to half of the other nominees in that regard) that had “potential” to be nominated and wasn’t, is ridiculous. The argument has as much standing as me saying how frustrated I am at the blind Academy members who didn’t nominate my favorite movie, Boyhood, for ENOUGH awards. We hear the same cries every year from film fans, and it’s time to look at problems in a new light, if the goal is to not be mad.

Throw out any desire of sympathy and recognition by the Academy for your race/color/national origin. I’m Greek American, I could be appalled that there were no Greek Americans (like Jennifer Aniston) nominated. But I’m not. I have no sympathy for people who don’t have any time of day to look at history as late as last year, when 12 Years a Slave won Best Picture. Let’s recognize the progress that has been made for Black people in Hollywood. In the last 15 years we’ve seen almost double the number of black Oscar winners than its entire history prior to that. Black people have also been a part of many Hollywood formulas for the last 20-30 years.

The truth is, we shouldn’t care if all the nominees are all black or white or anything. We should focus on films that need recognition. Selma, one can argue, needs recognition (I have argued that on multiple occasions). But it doesn’t need recognition because it stars black people, or even because it was directed by a black woman. The film, AS A FILM, deserves to be recognized over, oh say, other biopics nominated this year. If you refuse to focus on the merits of the film, and focus on race instead, nothing gets done, and no progress is made. So users of #OscarSoWhite on social media, I ask you kindly, please have a little perspective before you make a statement (lol, like that will happen.)

Especially because, the Academy does have real problems. Problems that stem beyond race. The obvious (sorry people but you’re late to the party if you’re just realizing this) lack of diversity in Academy membership means two things, one rather annoying, and one a little more upsetting. First, Academy members, especially executives, tend to have the same opinions and lifestyles, in addition to generally being the same race and gender. Lifestyles that include NOT WATCHING MOVIES, or at least not watching many in the theater. The way the Oscars are, Hollywood Execs, Actors, Directors, Writers who lead rather busy lives, are only exposed to certain films, not all films. Getting a small film to grab their attention has always been hard. Many are concerned what their friends and acquaintances are producing, and choose to recognize films, performances and technical aspects of films to help their homies (the ultimate in Hollywood Cronyism).

Now that’s not saying Hollywood is racist. It’s actually far from it. But not being able to see a number of films, or lack of will or time to see films has aggressively narrowed the scope of what is nominated, creating a more specific “for-your-consideration” type of Oscar-contender.

The Oscar “type” of film has always shut out the ability for other types of film to be nominated. This has been driven by the amount of campaigning, and money used therein, to get people across the board in Hollywood to watch these films. Awards are powerful, and the Oscars are not the only award show guilty of being rendered helpless to campaign financing (although they were the first).

Look at the Independent Spirit Awards, who, quite obviously and pretentiously, are chasing the rest of the award season by constantly changing the rules as to what is considered an “independent film.” I never recognize the Spirit Awards on this blog, because a film like Birdman, which was produced for $18 million with an all-star, established cast, an established director and produced by a strong subsidiary of 20^th Century Fox, should not be considered an independent film. Keep in mind, Regency also produced Gone Girl this year, and I’m not sure if there is any person out there that would constitute THAT as an independent film.

But why is nobody talking about the lack of diversity in genre? Four of the eight movies are BIOGRAPHIES. Four of the five lead actors are playing actual people. This is a trend that has taken over the Oscars in the last twenty years. Where are Forrest Gump, Rain Man, Rocky and The Godfather? Replaced by Stephen Hawking, Alan Turing and Chris Kyle. Not to mention previous winners Ray Charles, Idi Amin, King George VI and Abraham Lincoln. It seems every year Oscar has its picking of actors doing glorified impressions of real life figures, and actors fighting for the

roles. Where is the diversity?

The Academy almost had progress a few years ago, when they first expanded Best Picture to ten films to include popular, big budget blockbusters, but also to shed light (even more-so than other awards) on smaller or different types of films. For example, animated films such as Up! and Toy Story 3 nabbed Best Picture nominations, when previously an animated film being nominated was relatively unheard of (it had only happened once before). Science-fiction films like District 9 and Inception that may not have normally been nominated, made it in. And most importantly, smaller films like An Education or an actual independent film like Winter’s Bone could receive nominations.

You may remember Winter’s Bone as the first movie you saw Jennifer Lawrence in, who in just a few years went on to become the highest grossing Hollywood movie star. Thankfully there was a time when the Academy was able to recognize more films like that, but that time is passed.

So, we’re stuck with mostly biopics and movies that focus on the life of some sad chaps. No possible chance for another animated film, the almost-complete shunning of international film, no documentaries, and only one true independent movie this year (Whiplash). You don’t need to look at this from the scope of race to see there is a problem.

However, the second point to be made is, all of the films have male leads. Women, who represent 50% of the population and probably more of the movie going audience, have a difficult time receiving equal recognition. Even a film like Gone Girl, which made a great deal of money, and many (including myself) anticipated it to be up for Best Picture, was relegated to one category, Best Actress (I don’t even want to mention how its female scriptwriter failed to be the first female in history to not be nominated for adapting her own work.)

Now, I would normally group the understanding that having a female lead or having a male lead doesn’t really matter. As long as your movie is GREAT, you should be considered for Best Picture. But women have a beef here, as they always have. Women, let’s be real, have trouble staying relevant. Unless you’re someone like Meryl Streep or Katherine Hepburn, your career is going to last as long as your looks stay intact. That’s the way Hollywood is and always has been. But do the

Oscars have to be that way?

Until the Academy makes it a point to include different kinds of films, including thrillers like Gone Girl (remember Fatal Attraction was up), comedies like Bridesmaids or international films (like Ida) for Best Picture, there will be less and less of a demand for character studies of women or films discussing the role of women in society. Even now as big name directors like David Fincher take on these movies, the women still need to fit certain characteristics to fit the “type.”

…Which basically means cry a lot and/or show your boobs. There was one Best Actress nominee whose role wasn’t based on either. I can’t…really…remember the name… it was such a small movie…what was it again, or never mind, I forget.

In addition, women have it worse because there is an actual category for best female performance, so the objectivity is actually put under a microscope. On the flip side, this does help show that there is a sheer lack of variety in roles for women.

As stated before, the Academy has to reach for diversity in genre and style if there is to be a real change. Even if the voting field is more diverse in gender and race, they will still need a dousing of humiliation to really move the needle. Let’s not just be impressed by how well someone cries or plays a real life character. Let’s be impressed by how well someone puts forth new ideas, and challenges the audience. We can’t just put up whatever movies we are sent in the mail. There are many individuals with excellent ideas, that push the boundaries and limits of film, and they exist all over the world. If the Oscars showcase this talent, there will be more of a demand for new ideas, new movies and the ability to sell tickets in untapped ways. If this doesn’t happen, it remains to be seen if the Oscars are to survive another 87 years.

Oscar Noms

2015-01-15T06:15:00.000-08:00

I always thought the Oscars showcased too much collusion and pretentiousness by nominating nine nominees every year to try and spread the most amount of love.

This time, we have… a little more focus.

Only eight Best Picture Nominees and four films leading the way with:

The Imitation Game (8 noms)

Birdman (9 noms)

Boyhood (6 noms)

The Grand Budapest Hotel (9 noms)

The remaining Best Pic nominees:

The Imitation Game

Selma

The Theory of Everything

Whiplsh

Some may be surprised by the amount of love American Sniper received late in the award season, however Clint Eastwood was NOT nominated. Instead, the Academy opted to nominate Bennett Miller for Foxcatcher, a surprise to probably everybody except me, who called Miller’s nomination. However, despite a Director and Original Script nomination, Foxcatcher failed to nab a Best Pic nomination.

American Sniper’s Bradley Cooper continues to have this love affair with everyone else in Holywood, and it pays off with a nomination for Best Actor over a field of other contenders, including Selma’s Oyelowo.

Speaking of Selma, it was not shut out completely. To show some progressivism, Selma was thrown a bone and given a Best Picture nomination…and that’s pretty much it! It is also up for Original Song of course. I thought it was a kind of all-or-nothing kind of deal, but shutting out the film might have unwanted lash back , so perhaps white guilt really did push this movie into the spotlight…never underestimate it’s power.

And Jennifer Aniston NOT being up actually means that nobody saw that movie, and those who did chose not to vote for her.

Finally, the by far the biggest surprise of the morning was The LEGO Movie NOT being nominated for Best Animated Feature. Many, including myself, thought it was the favorite to win, and as we saw the race get down to really six movies, The LEGO Movie, having come out earliest, was primarily forgotten. That annoying song in the movie is nominated however, which leads me to believe everything is NOT awesome.

Full list of Oscar noms in the Oscar tab, and more analysis coming

Oscar Nomination Predictions

2015-01-13T09:44:00.002-08:00

Don't forget to check them out live at 5:30 AM this Thursday. They'll be announcing all categories live, and by they I mean Chris Pine, Alfonso Cuaron and J.J. Abrams, as well as Academy President Cheryl Boone Issacs.

Best Picture Predictions:

Since there is not a set number of nominees, I will just rank them in order of chance to be nominated.

1. Boyhood

2. Birdman

3. The Grand Budapest Hotel

4. The Theory of Everything

5. The Imitation Game

6. Whiplash

7. Gone Girl

8. American Sniper

9. Foxcatcher

10. Selma

11. Nightcrawler

12. Unbroken

Since the Academy changed their rules to the current format, we have seen 9 nominees each year. I don’t expect this year to be different. American Sniper had a late surge with it’s late release, but it may be too late to sneak into the top 9. We can probably put Unbroken out of the discussion as well, since very few are still talking about it. I would be surprised to not see at least the top 7, as Selma and Foxcatcher are the most vulnerable to be shut out.

*corrected- with American Sniper's DGA nomination, and seeing how there has never been a DGA nominee that has not been nominated for Best Picture since the nomination expansion, I swapped American Sniper to #8 (in other words: IN) and Selma out of the top 9. Selma does still have a chance, but it's really all or nothing, so I predict it will be OUT of the major races, although may stand to be (pleasantly) surprised.

Best Actor

Birdman- Michael Keaton

Foxcatcher- Steve Carell

The Imitation Game- Benedict Cumberbatch

Nightcrawler- Jake Gyllenhaal

The Theory of Everything- Eddie Redmayne

Alternate: Selma- David Oyelowo

These are the same nominees from the SAG and Globes, so it’s hard to see anyone coming out of left field in this race. However, with such a wide field, we may be in for a surprise. Keaton is a shoe-in to win, and Cumberbatch and Redmayne are shoe-ins to lose to him. The last two nominations could just be the exact same as the SAG as listed above, or we could see a surprise sneak in from either Bradley Cooper (depending on how many people saw American Sniper) and/or Ralph Fiennes for The Grand Budapest Hotel. With the later film’s Golden Globe win for Best Picture, it’s apparent that the movie is popular coming down to the wire, and the film is really carried by Fiennes character. Look for some surprises in this category.

Best Actress

Gone Girl- Rosamund Pike

Still Alice- Julianne Moore

The Theory of Everything- Felicity Jones

Two Days, One Night- Marion Cotillard

Wild- Reese Witherspoon

Alternate: Cake- Jennifer Aniston

I firmly believe Moore is a lock to win over Pike, Jones and Witherspoon. The last slot seems like it could be Aniston, who was up for a Globe and SAG. But Cotillard has received the most critical acclaim for her performance in the Dardenne Brothers latest. The only other option to those two would be Golden Globe winner Amy Adams, however Big Eyes was not necessarily a “for your consideration” campaign.

Best Supporting Actor

Birdman- Ed Norton

Boyhood- Ethan Hawke

Foxcatcher- Mark Ruffalo

The Judge- Robert Duvall

Whiplash- J.K. Simmons

Alternate: Inherent Vice- Josh Brolin

The most shallow competition of any category. Simmons is a lock to win, and all the others were nominated for both the Globes and the SAGs, and all including Josh Brolin were up at the CCAs. There really isn’t any other press for anybody else.

Best Supporting Actress

Birdman- Emma Stone

Boyhood- Patricia Arquette

The Imitation Game- Kiera Knightly

Into the Woods- Meryl Streep

Wild- Laura Dern

Alternate: St. Vincent- Naomi Watts

Dern is my outside pick to sneak in. Expect Streep to get her 19^th nomination (!) but lose to Arquette. Watts is the alternate based on St. Vincent’s only chance at a nomination is her and she also had a strong performance in Birdman as well. Jessica Chastain snuck into the Globes shortlist for A Most Violent Year, but the film has not received the amount of attention it was expected to after winning the NBR.

Best Director

Birdman- Alejandro G. Inarritu

Boyhood- Richard Linklater

Foxcatcher- Bennet Miller

The Grand Budapest Hotel- Wes Anderson

Whiplash- Damien Chazelle

Alternate: Selma- Ava Duvernay

Duvernay just made it off my list, thanks to Selma’s bad press, the fact that 12 Years a Slave, another historical film about racism in the south, won last year, and the Academy has a long history of shutting out female directors. I also left off David Fincher for Gone Girl, simply because I think that would be too predictable. I was thinking of a couple years ago (2012), when the Best Director nominations were mostly unexpected. I think we could see some surprises, including Whiplash’s young Chazelle and even Bennet Miller, who won Best Director at Cannes for Foxcatcher.

Best Original Screenplay

Birdman

Boyhood

Foxcatcher

The Grand Budapest Hotel

Nightcrawler

Alternate: Selma

This is the exact same as the CCAs and the WGA award nominations, except for Wihplash is now being considered an adapted screenplay by the Academt. Selma still has a chance, as it was an inspiring script, but those five films will be vying for talk time between now and the end of February.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Gone Girl

The Imitation Game

The Theory of Everything

Wild

Whiplash

Alternate: Unbroken

With Whiplash in the adapted category now, it seems Inherent Vice is now probably out of the running for a nomination. I think Wild’s success will continue with recognition here, unless the academy is desperate to throw a bone to Unbroken or Inherent Vice.

Best Animated Feature

Big Hero 6

The Boxtrolls

How to Train Your Dragon 2

The LEGO Movie

The Tale of Princess Kaguya

Alternate: Song of the Sea

With How to Train Your Dragon 2 winning the Golden Globe, it appears to not be a clear victory for The LEGO Movie. As for the other nominees, Big Hero 6 got excellent press and The Boxtrolls had unprecedented success for a stop motion film. The Tale of Princess Kaguya is Isao Takahata’s latest film of Japanese folklore may lose out to the slightly more popular Song of the Sea, done by the same people who were nominated in this category for The Secret of Kells in 2009.

Best Foreign-Language Film

Force Majeure (Turist) (Sweden)

Ida (Poland)

Leviathan (Russia)

Tangerines (Estonia)

Wild Tales (Argentina)

Alternate: Timbuktu (Mauritania)

Sweden, Poland and Russia (after Leviathan’s Globe win) are all locks to be up. The Argentinian movie Wild Tales was nominated for several Goya awards and was in competition at Cannes, and having a name, especially for a Comedy, might benefit it here. The last slot is up for grabs between two first time nominees, Mauritania and Estonia, I just went with Tangerines based on the Globe nomination.

Best Documentary Feature

The Case Against 8

Citizenfour

Last Days in Vietnam

Life Itself

The Overnighters

Alternate: Keep on Keepin’ On

Now that seems like a pretty well rounded category right? A legal doc, a war doc, a social/cultural doc, a political/espionage doc and a doc about the Movies themselves. I just don’t know where there would be room for a music doc like Keep on Keepin On, but then again, a music doc won last year.

72nd Annual Share the Love Fest

2015-01-12T09:51:00.004-08:00

One thing I learned from the Globes last night is, the LOSERS don’t get any recognition apart from a free breakfast. In an attempt to promote nominee awareness, I’ll focus a little on the surprising (and some not so surprising) losers in Beverly Hills last night.

Obviously, after Birdman won Best Screenplay over The Grand Budapest Hotel, we thought it was a shoe-in for Best Picture. However, the Globes, in the ever popular trend to honor as many movies as possible, with no clear justifying sense of how it’s done but a clear reason why, gave Grand Budapest Best Picture. That was the closest we were to a true snub.

Best Actor Drama hopefuls that were happy to not be running against Michael Keaton included four people playing real life people, and Jake Gyllenhaal, who was lucky enough to watch his sister win. Anyway, Dr. King, John Du Pont and Alan Turing all came out losers to Stephan Hawking (in both the films and in life, since Hawking is the only one still alive.) As I predicted, Eddie Redmayne was the winner for his portrayal in The Theory of Everything. Just to prove it wasn’t a fluke to just recognize the movie once, the film also won Best Score, for what it’s worth.

Predictably, we heard speeches from winners J.K. Simmons, Patricia Arquette and Julianne Moore. Also from Michael Keaton, giving Birdman two wins to tie The Theory of Everything and Boyhood, who obviously had a big night winning Best Picture Drama and Best Director. Julianne Moore did turn out to be a loser as well, in Best Actress Comedy/Muscial for her role in David Cronenberg’s Maps to the Stars, for which she won Best Actress at Cannes in 2014. Into the Woods’ Emily Blunt was also overlooked in favor of Amy Adams in Big Eyes as Margaret Keane. A big win for her, although having lost an Oscar nomination five times now, does she even want to be nominated for Oscar this year, or quit while she’s ahead? Unfortunately, her boring speech didn’t do her any favors either. Best Speech? That would have to be Original Song winner “Glory” from Selma:

DGA nominations come out tomorrow, Oscars come out on Thursday!

Globes Predictions

2015-01-11T14:14:00.000-08:00

Just to keep it brief before the party starts, here's who we know will win at the Globes tonight:

Best Picture- Boyhood (Drama) Birdman (Comedy/Musical)
Best Actor (Comedy/Musical)- Michael Keaton (Birdman)
Best Actress (Drama)- Julianne Moore (Still Alice)
Best Supporting Actor- J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)
Best Supporting Actress- Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)

Best Director is likely to be Boyhood's Linklater, however, the ever pretentious Globes knows what they mean to the Oscar race, so they could decide to throw some wild cards in the race, including giving Director to Fincher or Inarritu.

Best Actor in a Drama will most likely be Eddie Redmayne as Stephen Hawking in The Theory of Everything, however, if he splits votes with Cumberbatch, look for a surprise victory for Selma's Oyelowo.

Best Actress in a Comedy/Muscial never has a huge impact on the Oscar race, and the Globes urge to use their power where it makes a difference. Hence, I believe the favorite is, again Julianne Moore, this time in Maps to the Stars, however, Amy Adams could just as easily win for Big Eyes.

Finally, Screenplay will be either The Grand Budapest Hotel or Gone Girl, depending on how they want to spread around the awards. If Fincher steals Best Director, then they'll give Wes Anderson screenplay for Grand Budapest.

BAFTA Nominations

2015-01-09T12:51:00.003-08:00

The British Academy of Film and Television released their nominations for feature films in 2014 yesterday. One thing we've learned from the awards in the past is that the British Academy always mixes in a blend of British and Hollywood films to make the films of their country seem more relevant.

The truth is, British film is normally not so relevant in the rest of the award season as it is this year. Two major films poised for several Oscar nominations, The Imitation Game and The Theory of Everything (both mediocrely reviewed biopics about historical geniuses, if you wanted to know the formula for getting a nomination) are made by British film companies and starring British people. It's important to note that neither of these films have topped very many top 10 lists (unlike the other BAFTA nominees this year), however, the savior that is the Best British Film category will save one of them from being shut out right?

Actually, The BAFTA's started this whole trend of spreading the love around, and not caring who thinks what about it. Since the early 80s, the BAFTA's have helped move award season to the true display of cronyism we see today, and create the makeup of award politics, boiling down to which colleagues do voters want to give a speech to (and, of course, more "creative" opportunities).

This has obviously taken a further turn with the availability to watch films pretty much anywhere, taking a vaudevillian hook to the old award season days, when actors, directors and producers had to truly campaign to get people to go watch their film, rather than just send them a screener. However, the potential to illogically and arbitrarily give awards with no rhyme or reason begun with the BAFTA tactics of awarding the top award (Best Film) to a movie that would lose in a more specific category.

Examples include: Atonement, The Queen, Slumdog Millionaire, and The Full Monty all winning best film in their respective years and losing Best British Film to a film many may not have seen, or Jean de Florette winning Best Film and losing Best Foreign Film.

Go Figure. Fortunately, we have a slightly more logical system, right?

If what you're interested in is the Oscars, then you need not pay attention to the BAFTAs, as nomination announcements coincides with Oscar balloting closing, so the films honored are just Brits being Brits pretty much every time. But at least the BAFTAs aren't constantly chasing to be just like Oscar.

Anyway, if you are familiar with British stereotypes, you're probably not surprised that the most nominated film at this years BAFTA is The Grand Budapest Hotel. Some surprises did include Damien Chazelle's nomination for Best Director and Original Screenplay, a preview to what we will se from the Oscar nominations next week. Steve Carell was considered Supporting Actor for playing John du Pont in Foxcatcher, which was otherwise pretty much ignored, as was Jennifer Aniston in Cake. You can check the full list of the BAFTA's tab.

Selma update: although the movie was unsurprisingly ignored by the Brits, the Ohio film critics did give the film a number of awards, and a late wave of liberal artists pushing back at pre-release lash backs by outraged die-hards of President Johnson. The real do-or-die prediction is the film winning the Golden Globes over Boyhood, if you want to try and beat the Vegas odds. However the Globe film awards are usually much more predictably sacred than its TV awards, which often is given to the nominee you absolutely least expect.

Since Academy voting has ended, you can start making your first round of predictions for next weeks announcement. wait till after the Globes and DGA nominee announcement to print your final draft.

PGA award nominations

2015-01-07T07:41:00.000-08:00

Good Afternoon and Happy New Year! We are in the midst of a huge week in this year’s award season. Yesterday the Producers’ Guild of America released nominations for their awards, and so did the Art Director’s Guild.

Other major award nominations coming out this week include the acs’s, the dga and wga awards and the eddies, as well as the BAFTA’s tomorrow. It’s all culminating in hollywoods biggest dress me up and get me drunk, jerk off festival, the 72nd Golden Globes.

In case you’re wondering, George Clooney will be there, he’s getting the cecil b demille award on Sunday, fresh off the heels of his extraordinary 2014, in which he was in The Monuments Men, and, uh, that’s it.

If you haven’t heard of the Monutments men, it’s ok, nobody has. It’s about a group of your favorite movie stars acting sarcastically and hunting for treasure , and starring the same bad guys as Raiders of the lost ark and the remains of the day.

It’s convenient because it might be up for razzies.

Anyway, the PGA awards bear strong resemblance to the Professional Golf Association, because if the Oscars were the hole, the PGA gets first drive to try and get as close to the hole as possible. Each of the last seven years, they have struck a proverbial hole in one.

And by first drive, I’m discounting the Spirit awrds, who are pretty awful golfers and the guilds will just have to let them “play through.”

The only big story is the continuation from what you might have seen on the Sunday morning news show, controversy around Selma. Ava Duvernay’s historical drama has been dragged under the bus by white news people in washington, who have nothing better to do until the new congressional clown car comes roaring back into town.

The controversy is of course the portrayal of LBJ as an obstacle in the fight for voting rights. My opinion on that is here:

In my estimation, Selma was dropped in favor of American Sniper so I guess classical patriotism is not dead. In the world…

I stil don’t think American Sniper has much of a chance at being nominated by the Academy for Best Picture, as there are already 10 films that are potential Best Picture nominees. The nomination ballots are due tomorrow, and the film is still playing only at ONE theater in Hollywood, and having not been up for anything else, it may be difficult for nomintiors to have sniped a copy (I fucking love puns).

The only thing the movie has going for it now is the fact that Bradley Cooper is, like, sooooooo popular. Everyone wants to be near him…

Except his nipples.

Finally, the Art Directors Guild put up their nominations on Tuesday. The Production Design Oscars are not always aligned with the guilds winners, but there has never been a film that has won an Oscar that was not at least nominated for a guild award since its inception in 2000. We’re probably looking at The Grand Budapest Hotel or Into the Woods to pick up steam.

And that’s all for now, check back with me soon, and happy viewing!

NSFC Continue to Just not Give A F***

2015-01-04T12:53:00.001-08:00

National Society of Film Critics Awards:

Best Film-
1. Goodbye to Language (25 Votes)
2. Boyhood (24)
3. Birdman and Mr. Turner (10 Votes Each)

Best Director-
1. Boyhood - Richard Linklater (36)
2. Goodbye to Language- Jean-Luc Godard (17)
3. Mr. Turner - Mike Leigh (12)

Best Actor
1. Mr. Turner- Timothy Spall (31)
2. Locke - Tom Hardy (10)
3. The Grand Budapest Hotel - Ralph Fiennes and Inherent Vice - Joaquin Phoenix (9)

Best Actress
1. The Immigrant and Two Days, One Night - Marion Cotillard (80)
2. Still Alice- Julianne Moore (35)
3. Lucy and Under the Skin - Scarlett Johansson (21)

Best Supporting Actor
1. Whiplash- J.K. Simmons (24)
2. Foxcathcer- Mark Ruffalo (21)
3. Birdman - Ed Norton (16)

Best Supporting Actress
1. Boyhood - Patricia Arquette (26)
2. Ida- Agata Kulesza (18)
3. Nightcrawler- Rene Russo (9)

Best Screenplay
1. The Grand Budapest Hotel- Wes Anderson (24)
2. Birman- Alejandro G. Iñarritu, Alexander Dinelaris Jr., Armando Bo and Inherent Vice- Paul Thomas Anderson (15)

Best Nonfiction Film
1. Citizenfour (56)
2. National Gallery (19)
3. The Overnighters (17)

Best Cinematography
1. Mr. Turner - Dick Pope (33)
2. The Immigrant- Darius Khondji (27)
3. Goodbye to Language- Fabrice Aragno (9)

In case you didn't think the National Society of Film Critics really don't care about the rest of award season, then where have you been? Last year they gave Best Film to Inside Llewyn Davis, which was only up for ONE Oscar (Cinematography). This year, unfortunately, their choice for the top prize will receive zero Oscar nominations, as it is ineligible for normal competition and France decided NOT to put up this film, made by one of the their most influential filmmakers in history.

Other than that, Arquette and Simmons continue their supporting performance tear, and are virtual locks for Oscars. As you can imagine, that is generally the case when you win every major award prior, even the NSFC.

Nomination Balloting for the Oscars closes this Friday, so there is still time for those who are voting to see movies like Mr. Turner and Inherent Vice, both of which have been pretty much such out of all other major awards.

Tribute to Luise Rainer, Oscar Legend

2014-12-31T13:08:00.001-08:00

Tuesday, at age 104, Oscar's first back to back Oscar winner passed away.

Luise Rainer was one of the most revered and respected actresses of the golden age of Hollywood. Her early success actually brought her acting career to a halt shortly after the 1930s, only to be resumed on a few occasions.

She was the first performer to win multiple acting Oscars, the first in 1936's The Great Ziegfeld, which also won Best Picture. As a relative newcomer, she beat out Hollywood starlet Norma Shearer in Romeo and Juliet, who was actually expected to win her second Oscar based on sympathy votes for the loss of her Husband, Hollywood super-producer Irving Thalberg.

Shortly before she won, she appeared in the release of The Good Earth, which was actually Thalberg's last film. The film adaptation of the great novel by Pearl S. Buck stands as one of the great films of the mid-1930s and helped her not only earn press for her Great Ziegfeld nomination, but actually earned her another Oscar the following year as well.

Critics Choice Nominations and UPDATES

2014-12-21T23:26:00.002-08:00

So, the movies page is underway. Check it out. Now.

Other than that, the Critics Choice Nominations were released. Here's a quick look at Best Picture:

What's in:
Birdman
Boyhood
Gone Girl
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Nightcrawler
Selma
The Theory of Everything
Unbroken
Whiplash

What's out:
Foxcatcher
A Most Violent Year
Inherent Vice
Into the Woods
American Sniper
St. Vincent

Only surprise is the shutout of Foxcatcher. Other than that pick nine of those films and those will probably be the Oscar nominees.

The CCA's have six acting nominees, so they encompassed pretty much everyone that the Globes and SAG awards have already touched upon.

It's also important to note that this is the first major award show that nominates for technical categories as well, so we get a glimpse into categories like Editing and Cinematography, before the guilds put out their nominations. You can see the whole list of noms in the Critics Awards section.

So, for a couple weeks, I'll be signing off to watch an abhorrent amount of movies. Hope you're doing the same. Happy viewing!!

SAGs and Golden Globes are so similar they deserve a one take video and that's it!

2014-12-11T11:08:00.000-08:00

AFI Top 10 (SYKE ELEVEN!!!)

2014-12-09T10:24:00.001-08:00

What's in:
American Sniper
Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
The Imitation Game
Interstellar
Into the Woods
Nightcrawler
Selma
Unbroken
Whiplash

What was left out:
The Grand Budapest Hotel
A Most Violent Year
Inherent Vice
And also, The Theory of Everything seems to be DOA

Even with the expansion to 11 movies, The Grand Budapest Hotel was still left out just a day after finishing runner up in pretty much everything at the LA film critics awards (to Boyhood).

Next up are the SAG nominations, and not a moment too soon because all of the acting races seem wide open. The only clear contender is Julianne Moore competing for Best Actress for her work in Still Alice, but even at this stage, a dark horse can enter the field, and SAG picks ALL the dark horses.

National Board of Review picks 'A Most Violent Year' for Best Film

2014-12-03T10:21:00.001-08:00

Here are the winners:

Best Film- A Most Violent Year
Best Director- American Sniper (Clint Eastwood)
Best Actor- A Most Violent Year (Oscar Issac) and Birdman (Michael Keaton)
Best Actress- Still Alice (Julianne Moore)
Best Supporting Actor- Birdman (Edward Norton)
Best Supporting Actress- A Most Violent Year (Jessica Chastain)
Best Original Screenplay- The Lego Movie
Best Adapted Screenplay- Inherent Vice
Best Animated Film- How to Train Your Dragon 2
Best Documentary- Life Itself
Best Foreign Film- Wild Tales
Best Ensemble- Fury
Best Directoral Debut- Obvious Child (Gillian Robespierre)
Breakthrough Performance- Jack O'Connell (from Starred Up and Unbroken)

Top 10 Films of the Year:
A Most Violent Year
American Sniper
Birdman
Boyhood
Fury
Gone Girl
The Imitation Game
Inherent Vice
The Lego Movie
Nightcrawler
Unbroken

Top 5 Foreign Language Movies:
Force Majeure
Gett: The Trial of Vivian Amsalem
Leviathan
Two Days, One Night
We Are the Best!

Top 5 Documentaries:
Art and Craft
Jodorowsky's Dune
Keep on Keepin' On
The Kill Team
Last Days in Vietnam

Reaction: Please don't ask me how a movie can win best Documentary and not be on the documentary shortlist. Or how the Lego Movie lost Animated Film but was on the top 10 films of the year, and the winner was not.
The truth is, there are somethings that may never be answered.
It was always a guess as to what the NBR would pick. A Most Violent Year was a little outside the box, however, it's current meteoritic rating is only rivaled by Birdman and Boyhood. The only real surprise was the lack of Whiplash on the top 10 films of the year.
Also a push for P.T. Anderson's Inherent Vice, which, only with a recent theatrical trailer release, has it been getting any press at all. Fury, Nightcrawler, Unbroken and The Lego Movie will most likely end their run of recognition here, save Lego in animated categories. It's characteristic of the NBR to promote films that don't have any chances with any of the major award ceremonies (i.e. The Secret Life of Walter Mitty last year).

Oscar Season is Finally Here, Let's Get This Thing Crackin'

2014-12-02T09:38:00.001-08:00

Today, all film fans who have been saving their extra cash for the rush of films at the end of the year can begin to relinquish their disposable income at the box office, unless you’re a torrent-er, in which case, you can start marking your calendar for the December release dates of movies you won’t be taking any dates too!

Award season 2014 has kicked off with the announcement of the New York Film Critics Circle Awards Monday. Uncharacteristic, as usually the first awards to be announced come from the National Board of Review, who announce their best of 2014 tomorrow. In the meantime, if you are worried about prematurely making picks for this season, the NYFCC always gives us a glimpse at potential contenders.

Up until a few years ago, the NYFCC were among the last critics awards announced.

Along with the NBR, they are the oldest, and arguably most prestigious critics awards. Unlike the NBR, they more often align with other critics awards, and the Oscars. The NBR has always prided themselves on being different from the AMPAS and the Oscars, so expect tomorrows winners to be different.

Anyway, getting down to business, we did learn that the most powerful force going into the season is Boyhood. It’s promise validated by the first major win of the season.

For all of you don’t know the Richard Linklater’s coming of age of a millennial boy, filmed over the course of twelve years, you can watch the trailer here:

Boyhood’s Linklater also took home Best Director and Patricia Arquette took home Best Supporting Actress. Neither have ever been nominated for an Oscar in those categories, however Linklater has been nominated twice for Screenplay. Both were getting the most press leading up to the December critics awards.

Other major awards included:

Best Actor- Timothy Spall for Mr. Turner (Mike Leigh’s latest film which earned Spall Best Actor at Cannes earlier this year.)

Best Actress- Marion Cotillard for The Immigrant and Two Days, One Night (The former premiered at Cannes in 2013 and is eligible for this Oscars, but is not expected to be up for anything, and the later premiered at Cannes this year and won the Sydney Prize at the Sydney Film Festival.)

Best Supporting Actor- J.K. Simmons for Whiplash (watch out for this film this Oscar season, and this performance.)

Best Screenplay- The Grand Budapest Hotel (Wes Anderson’s latest film is already out on home video, it may have come out to early to be considered a heavy contender.)

Best Cinematography- The Immigrant

Best Nonfiction Film- Citizenfour

Best Foreign Film- Ida

Best Animated Film- The Lego Movie

My guess is this- If Boyhood wins tomorrow at the National Board of Review, it will be a forced to be reckoned with this season. Also, the NBR posts their top ten films of the year as well, which is pretty all encompassing of movies you can hit in the theaters, no matter where you are in America.

Most predictable Oscars concludes

2014-03-02T22:02:00.001-08:00

Wow, sorry, didn't mean to be a downer. Ellen was hilarious and there was some funny bits. Pink's tribute to The Wizard of Oz was amazing. Every other bit painfully filled the hours long show that was complete with absolutely no surprises.

I made 20 of 23 awards, changing my last minute pick for Best Supporting Actress to snag an upset and was thankfully wrong in thinking Lupita Nyong'o was going to lose for her brilliant performance in 12 Years a Slave. American Hustle, having had ten chances to take home an Oscar, walked away with nothing.

My most sincere condolences to all of you who have fallen under the curse of actually caring that Jennifer Lawrence fell on the red carpet. Some people are clumsy and have balance issues. She also may have been stoned, so go back to stealing your neighbor's wifi.

Gravity, despite winning seven Oscars, lost the top prize to 12 Years a Slave. For all of you who have ever seen this page, you knew that there was no way of anything else happening. However, viewers were still rewarded by seeing the historical win of Gravity's director Alfonso Cuarón, the first Latin American Best Director winner.

Her also reeled in Best Original Screenplay, backed by an awesome speech by Spike Jonze. Best speech had to go to a heartfelt and sincere (and well prepared) speech by Jared Leto after winning Best Supporting Actor for Dallas Buyers Club, accepting his award for all those affected by AIDS. Luckily there were not a lot of disappointing speeches, most were very fast, unlike the show.

Dear Oscars,

Please refrain from any stupid "tributes" like that pathetic animated films, of which you select five animated films to represent the cartoons "we love." We have also suffered from too many years of worthless trailers for the Best Picture nominees. I do apologize, however, after having two months to watch all the films and seeing endless tributes of the same films in other ceremonies. Stick with Jim Carrey doing Bruce Dern in front of Bruce Dern, and Ellen making twitter shut down.

Oh, and I will leave you lovely people with this:

Winners are posted in the Oscars section. Thank you all so much for participating in my favorite night of the year!

'The Great Beauty' and Lutpia Nyong'o keep the night rollin

2014-03-02T19:32:00.000-08:00

The Great Beauty

Lupita Nyong'o in 12 Years a Slave

Bill Murray= Best Presenter

and I guess Ellen broke twitter.

Much props to Emmanuel Lubezki for winning his first Oscar for Best Cinematography for Gravity!

Oscars...so far

2014-03-02T19:05:00.000-08:00

No I'm not mad I've gotten two predictions wrong. Seriously...I'm not...

Anyway, Ellen is the funniest. If you don't think so, you're either prejudice or a prude. Or both.

No surprises as of yet, 20 Feet from Stardom had an excellent win, after having won the box office award for documentary. A pretty surprising win in Animated Short Film for "Mr. Hublot"

For future reference Oscars, keep out the Best Picture trailers and all other unnecessary clips unless they pertain exactly to a competitive or honorary award. Ellen is also correct in the lack of Finding Nemo impression.

Here are a list of winners so far:

Best Supporting Actor: Jared Leto for Dallas Buyers Club
Best Costume Design: The Great Gatsby (Catherine Martin)
Best Makeup & Hairstyling: Dallas Buyers Club
Best Live Action Short: "Helium"
Best Animated Short: "Mr. Hublot"
Best Documentary Short: "The Lady in Number Six"
Best Documentary Feature: 20 Feet from Stardom

Pre-Oscar party and Shorts predictions

2014-03-01T13:51:00.000-08:00

Sorry for the delay- here are the odds for each of the shorts:

Live Action- Helium
Documentary- The Lady in Number 6
Animated- Get a Horse

check back tomorrow for live updates! Happy Oscars everybody!

OSCAR PREDICTIONS ARE HERE!!! IMPRESS YOUR FRIENDS!!!

2014-02-20T13:51:00.001-08:00

As the BAFTAs bring pre Oscar season to a close (no I do not count the Spirit Awards), and with just five days left before Oscar Ballots need to be in for tally, we can begin the most entertaining project of the year, compiling predictions for every Oscar category. Brace yourself for a flurry of trivia that will be sure to make you the smartest of your friends and family come March 2nd. Here we go:

Best Picture

American Hustle

Captain Phillips

Dallas Buyers Club

Gravity

Her

Nebraska

Philomena

12 Years a Slave

The Wolf of Wall Street

Will and Should Win- 12 Years a Slave

There is no evidence in Oscar history to disprove that 12 Years a Slave will not win. Although both Gravity (the Best Director favorite) and American Hustle both received the most nominations, 12 Years a Slave has the Golden Globe, Critics Choice and Producer’s Guild, and is poised to win the BAFTAs top prize. The only thing missing from this résumé is a DGA win, which went to Gravity, causing many to believe that Gravity is the favorite. However, this is not true. Everything that history has told us will result in a sharing of awards, the lion’s share going to Gravity, but 12 Years taking home Best Picture á la Shakespeare in Love splitting with Saving Private Ryan. Then there’s the guys who actually orchestrated the Shakespeare in Love Oscar run, and there film American Hustle. We cannot denounce the film’s presence, but if we’re going by Vegas betting odds, American Hustle will win nothing, since it is not favored in any category. Queue the dramatics…?

One more thing to get straight, the other nominated films are very good (especially Her), however, they have absolutely NO chance at taking home Best Picture. 3 films with a chance is definitely a crowd, so sorry to crush your dreams of a Philomena Best Picture, but it just won’t happen, and it’s better that you find out this way, rather than pull a Mitt Romney.

Best Director

12 Years a Slave - Steve McQueen

American Hustle- David O. Russell

Gravity- Alfonso Cuarón

Nebraska- Alexander Payne

The Wolf of Wall Street- Martin Scorsese

Will and Should win- Alfonso Cuarón

I would’ve liked to see Spike Jonze be up this year. If subtlety is really what the Academy voters are nominating, then why David O. Russell? Anyway, the only argument needed to put money down on this is the fact that Cuarón won the DGA award, which has been the uber-predictor of this race for some time. Gravity’s tie with 12 Years a Slave at the Producers Guild just lets everyone know that they are not going to count out Gravity from top awards, but this is really the only award it’s favored to win. I would not take a parlay on either Gravity or 12 Years to sweep Picture/Director, but it is interesting that no African-American or Latin American has ever won Best Director, and this year will basically be one or the other. Vive La Diversité!

Best Actor

12 Years a Slave- Chiwetel Ejiofer

American Hustle- Christian Bale

Dallas Buyers Club- Matthew McConaughey

Nebraska- Bruce Dern

The Wolf of Wall Street- Leonardo Dicaprio

Will Win- Matthew McConaughey

Should Win- Bruce Dern

Again, I’m going to start by expressing my befuddlement and subtle anger that Tom Hanks wasn’t nominated, despite “I’m the Captain Phillips now!” Best Picture nod. Matthew McConaughey won the Globe and the SAG, there’s no stopping him. Burce Dern was hanging tough until then, and I would really like to see someone win for not playing a real life person or drug addict (or both as in McConaughey’s case). Dallas Buyers Club was awesome though, and McConaughey winning is a good way to not only honor is awesome last TWO years, but show the fans that the don’t care how many shitty movies you make, if you’re GOOD, you’re good. Period.

And no talk of Leo winning. A leading actor who was not nominated for the SAG has never won an Oscar.

Best Actress

American Hustle- Amy Adams

August: Osage County- Meryl Streep

Blue Jasmine- Cate Blanchett

Gravity- Sandra Bullock

Philomena- Judi Dench

Will and Should Win-Cate Blanchett

A great group of previous winners and Amy Adams. This category is a wash, Cate Blanchett has won every award for this film known to human kind, and even she believes she will win. She is realistically going to get the most votes of any nominee in any category. Don’t bet against her.

My girl from Blue is the Warmest Color, Adele Exarchopoulos, was absolutely outstanding this year, and I’m not saying she would have put up any kind of contention against Blanchett, but she and the film certainly deserve some recognition, despite its NC-17 rating.

Best Supporting Actor

12 Years a Slave- Michael Fassbinder

American Hustle- Bradley Cooper

Captain Phillips- Barkhad Abdi

Dallas Buyers Club- Jared Leto

The Wolf of Wall Street- Jonah Hill

Will and Should win- Jared Leto

Yeah, don’t even think twice about this, Jared Leto’s story is awesome and he has a ton of fans. He was also brilliant in Dallas Buyers Club, a role that is poised to win an Oscar. None of the other guys can compete.

Best Supporting Actress

12 Years a Slave- Lupita Nyong'o

American Hustle- Jennifer Lawrence

August: Osage County- Julia Roberts

Blue Jasmine- Sally Hawkins

Nebraska- June Squibb

Will win- Jennifer Lawrence

Should win- Lupita Nyong’o

This is the only real race. It’s almost a coin flip between Nyong’o and Jennifer Lawrence, but Lawrence just won last year, and was miscast in American Hustle in my opinion. Nyong’o had a powerful performance, and being previously unknown, is a raw standout, compared to Lawrence, who was the top grossing film star of 2013. Really tough to call, but American Hustle has to be the favorite in some category right? Don't really agree, but with the BAFTA win, it's clear J Law has the base to take this one away from a SAG winner.

Best Original Screenplay

American Hustle- David O. Russell and Eric Singer

Blue Jasmine- Woody Allen

Dallas Buyers Club- Craig Borten and Melisa Wallack

Her- Spike Jonze

Nebraska- Bob Nelson

Will and Should win- Her

If you thought the last category was close, this is even closer. It’s a total toss between Her and American Hustle. Her has won more script awards, but Hustle has yet to relly be favored in anything. With Weinstein backing, we could easily see a turn of tables here. I doubt there will be a third contender that would benefit from a split, but if there was it would be Woody Allen, who has won this category three times.

Best Adapted Screenplay

12 Years a Slave- John Ridley

Before Midnight- Julie Deply, Ethan Hawke and Richard Linklater

Captain Phillips- Billy Ray

Philomena- Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope

The Wolf of Wall Street- Terence Winter

Will and Should win- 12 Years a Slave

This is another walkover. The only reason 12 Years doesn’t have a Writers Guild Award credit is because it was deemed ineligible, allowing Captain Phillips to take it. Don’t be fooled, because that means nothing (see: last year- Quentin Tarantino).

Best Animated Feature

The Croods

Despicable Me 2

Ernest & Celestine

Frozen

The Wind Rises

Will Win- Frozen

Should Win-The Wind Rises

I haven’t really seen any of these, but they’re already making Frozen into a Broadway musical. Everybody loves Frozen, even little kids. In theory, The Wind Rises, should have a shot, being Miyazaki’s last film ever and having a release two weeks before the awards, but a lot of critics have expressed that it’s only for true fans of Miyazaki, and he’s already lost this category once. Of course the film is still brilliant.

Best Foreign Language Film

The Broken Circle Breakdown (Belgium)

The Great Beauty (Italy(

The Hunt (Denmark)

The Missing Picture (Cambodia)

Omar (Palestine)

Will Win- The Great Beauty

Should Win- The Hunt

Foreign Film always brings a surprise. The Great Beauty was nominated for the Golden Palm, is still in LA theaters and has won the Golden Globe. But I can never call any Foreign Film a sure thing. The Hunt has achieved regular acclaim and was up for the Golden Palm in 2012. If you want a huge underdog pick, go with Cambodia’s first ever nominee with The Missing Picture, which is poised for release two weeks after the awards. Sometimes, this category will award a film that has a release immediately after the awards to promote it, and they have taken awards awat from completely brilliant films like The Hunt and The Great Beauty. The odds on it are currently 50-1, and I LIKE THOSE ODDS!

Best Documentary Feature

The Act of Killing

Cutie and the Boxer

Dirty Wars

The Square

Twenty Feet From Stardom

Will and Should win- The Act of Killing

This is another tough one. The Square just took home the DGA, and honestly, it’s that good that it could be a favorite, but The Act of Killing has received consistent praise, along with a number of top ten lists, including the Sight and Sound Best Film of 2013.

I would also not count out 20 Feet From Stardom, a definite force being the highest grossing documentary of the bunch by a clear mile. Definitely something a lot of documentary filmmakers would love to say.

Best Original Score

The Book Thief- John Williams

Gravity- Steven Price

Her- William Butler and Owen Pallett

Philomena- Alexandre Desplat

Saving Mr. Banks- Thomas Newman

Will Win- Gravity

Should Win- Her

This will either be Gravity or Her, unless we see voters take a turn back to big orchestral pieces. Gravity makes the most sense since the score went extremely well with the impact of the scene, without being too “Pacific Rim” Her is a close second, and Saving Mr. Banks has an outside chance since it was shut out of everything else.

Best Original Song

"Happy" from Despicable Me 2- Pharrell Williams (Music and Lyrics)

"Let it Go" from Frozen- Kristen Anderson Lopez and Robert Lopez (Music and Lyrics)

"The Moon Song" from Her- Karen O (Music), Karen O and Spike Jonze (Lyrics)

"Ordinaty Love" from Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom- Paul Hewson, Dave Evans, Adam Clayton and Larry Mullen (Music), Paul Hewson (Lyrics)

Will Win- “Let it Go”

Should Win-“Alone yet not Alone”. ONLY KIDDING

Yeah, I know “Ordinary Love” won the Golden Globe, but Mandela didn’t have a sing-a-long.

Best Cinematography

The Grandmaster- Philippe Le Sourd

Gravity- Emmanuel Lubezki

Inside Llewyn Davis- Bruno Delbonnel

Nebraska- Phendon Papamichael

Prisoners- Roger A. Deakins

Will and Should Win- Gravity

Easy one, Lubezki has been up five previous times and not won once. This is a sure thing.

Best Costume Design

12 Years a Slave- Patricia Norris

American Hustle- Michael Wilkinson

The Grandmaster- William Chang Suk Ping

The Great Gatsby- Catherine Martin

The Invisible Woman- Michael O'Connor

Will Win- The Great Gatsby

Should Win- The Grandmaster

This could be the one American Hustle sneaks away with, but my money is on Gatsby. The Grandmaster had excellent costumes, but unlikely that it was seen by everyone. I doubt 12 Years a Slave has a shot, but it’s the definite third wheel in the race, thus completing a five win night.

Best FIlm Editing

12 Years a Slave- Joe Walker

American Hustle- Jay Cassidy, Crispin Struthers, Alan Baumgarten

Captain Phillips- Christopher Rouse

Dallas Buyers Club- John Mac McMurphy and Martin Pensa

Gravity- Alfonso Cuaron and Mark Sanger

Will Win- Gravity

Should Win- 12 Years a Slave

Ahhh, the Gravity technical award sweep continues. Really surprised if Captain Phillips or 12 Years take this.

Best Makeup/Hairstyling

Dallas Buyers Club- Adruitha Lee and Robin Mathews

Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa- Stephen Prouty

The Lone Ranger- Joel Harlow and Gloria Pasqua-Casny

Will and Should Win- Dallas Buyers Club

If the makeup people have a sense of humor, Bad Grandpa would win. Have you met a makeup person with a sense of humor? Well, maybe, but those people probably loved Dallas Buyers Club.

Best Production Design

12 Years a Slave- Adam Stockhausen (Production Design) Alice Baker (Set Decoration)

American Hustle- Judy Becker (Production Design), Heather Loeffler (Set Decoration)

Gravity- Andy Nicholson (Production Design) Rose Goodwin and Joanne Woodward (Set Decoration)

The Great Gatsby- Catherine Martin (Production Design), Beverly Dunn (Set Decoration)

Her- K.K. Barrett (Production Design) Gene Serdena (Set Decoration)

Will Win- The Great Gatsby

Should Win- Her

This one is totally up for grabs by anyone of these films. The cool thing about this category is, there is so much politics that Gatsby’s beautiful and elaborate production design, may take home the top prize. The Art Director’s Guild Awards doesn’t help much with this, giving prizes to Gatsby, Gravity and Her. You should probably choose your winner from those three.

Best Sound Mixing

Captain Phillips- Chris Burdon, Mark Taylor, Mike Prestwood Smith and Chris Munro

Gravity- Skip Lievsay, Niv Adiri, Christopher Benstead and Chris Munro

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug- Christopher Boyes, Michael Hedges, Michael Semanick and Tony Johnson

Inside Llewyn Davis- Skip Lievsay, Greg Orloff and Peter F. Kurland

Lone Survivior- Andy Koyama, Beau Borders and David Brownlow

Will and Should Win-Gravity

I’m still going with Gravity for all the tech stuff.

Best Sound Editing

All is Lost- Steve Boeddeker and Richard Hymns

Captain Phillips- Oliver Tarney

Gravity- Glenn Freemantle

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug- Brent Burge

Lone Survivor- Wylie Stateman

Will and Should win- Gravity

Well, Gravity was the best movie out of all of them, right?

Best Visual Effects

Gravity- Tim Webber, Chris Lawrence, Dave Shirk and Neil Corbould

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug- Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton and Eric Reynolds

Iron Man 3- Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams, Erik Nash and Dan Sudick

The Lone Ranger- Tim Alexander, Gary Brozenich, Edson Williams and John Frazier

Star Trek Into Darkness- Roger Guyett, Patrick Tubach, Ben Grossman and Burt Dalton

Will and Should win- Gravity

Gravity can be shut out of every other category but will never lose this one. If my predictions are right, this should complete a set of six awards for the film.

Thanks for reading!

This will also be in a tab when I post next, until then, happy viewing.

Pre BAFTA video, in case you need to know what's going on

2014-02-14T13:16:00.000-08:00