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Congo Must Add Value to Its Natural Resources, President Says

2010-12-14T04:28:00.001-08:00

Democratic Republic of Congo needs to change the way it exports natural resources if the country wants to fight its way out of poverty, President Joseph Kabila said.

Miners should process minerals and other raw materials within Congo, and the country should reduce its reliance on small-scale and independent mining, Kabila, 39, said in his annual state of the nation address to parliament in the capital, Kinshasa, today.

“Economic rationale requires that from now on, we should limit the export of raw minerals,” Kabila said. “Increasing their value locally should become the rule,” and the same principle should apply to timber and oil exports, he said.

Since taking over as Congo’s first democratically elected president in 40 years in 2006, Kabila has struggled to get the country back on its feet. Years of dictatorship and war destroyed Congo’s infrastructure and paralyzed its economy. According to the United Nations Development Programme, Congo ranked second to last in human development out of 169 countries surveyed this year.

Still, Congo holds a third of the world’s cobalt reserves and 4 percent of its copper. It is Africa’s largest producer of tin ore and holds deposits of gold, coltan and diamonds and is home to the second-largest tropical forest in the world. The country is also exploring for oil.

Conflict

Continued conflict in the east has hampered investment by major miners and oil companies, leaving the bulk of exploitation to independent, or artisanal, operators, a practice Kabila wants to change.

“After nearly 40 years of following a policy of artisanal mining in which neither the country nor the diggers themselves saw any visible dividend, it’s time to re-examine the wisdom of that policy,” he said.

Industrial production of copper and cobalt has already increased in Katanga province, Kabila said. Toronto-based Banro Corp., Johannesburg-based AngloGold Ashanti Ltd., and Jersey- based Randgold Resources Ltd. have said they will begin gold production in two other eastern provinces over the next three years.

Kabila’s first five-year term ends in 2011. He called for next year’s elections to be conducted with “respect for rules of procedure and in the spirit of patriotism.”

In 2007, hundreds died in the streets of Kinshasa when forces loyal to Kabila fought with supporters of his main rival, former rebel leader Jean-Pierre Bemba. Bemba is on trial at the International Criminal Court in The Hague for war crimes committed in Central African Republic in 2002 and 2003.

Kabila’s main opponent will probably be Etienne Tshisekedi, 77, head of the Union for Democracy and Social Progress party. Tshisekedi is scheduled to return to Kinshasa today after a 3-year self-imposed exile in Belgium, according to the UDPS website.

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Madoff, Credit Suisse, HP, CBA, UBS in Court News

2010-12-14T04:25:00.001-08:00

Bernard Madoff’s investors, employees and family members were sued by a trustee seeking to recover as much as $69 million in fake profits they received before the con man’s firm collapsed.

New York attorney Irving Picard, appointed trustee by a federal bankruptcy court, on Nov. 26 sued people who allegedly invested with Madoff and withdrew more money than they contributed. Picard, with the approval of the Manhattan judge overseeing the liquidation of New York-based Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities LLC, has filed such “clawback suits” in an attempt to obtain as much as $17.5 billion for victims of the largest Ponzi scheme in U.S. history.

Picard said in a statement that those targeted in this latest round of lawsuits are family members and employees, or their relatives. In some of the complaints filed in U.S. Bankruptcy Court, he didn’t identify the defendants as having such connections to Madoff.

“The transfers received by defendant constitute non- existent profits supposedly earned in the account, but, in reality, they were other people’s money,” Picard said in a complaint seeking $2.8 million from David Washburn, a Madoff investor. Washburn didn’t return a phone call seeking comment.

Among those previously sued by the trustee is Bernard Madoff’s wife Ruth, who was named in a complaint filed in July 2009. Defendants in the new lawsuits include Marion Madoff, the wife of Madoff’s brother Peter, who Picard said received $14.1 million in customer funds that should be returned. Picard sued Peter Madoff in October 2009.

Charles Spada, a lawyer for Peter Madoff, didn’t return a call to his office after business hours.

“We have been in touch with each defendant and their counsel, seeking a prompt settlement of these claims and an out- of-court resolution,” Picard said in the e-mailed statement. “However, as these attempts have not reached a satisfactory conclusion, we are moving ahead with litigation.”

Madoff, 72, is serving 150 years in prison after pleading guilty to orchestrating the fraud that destroyed his New York- based firm, which collapsed in December 2008.

The bankruptcy case is SIPC v. Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities LLC, 08-1789, U.S. Bankruptcy Court, Southern District of New York (Manhattan).

ADCB Sues Credit Suisse, S&P in U.S. on Investment Product

Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank PJSC, the United Arab Emirates’ third-biggest bank by assets, sued Credit Suisse Group AG, Standard & Poor’s and others for allegedly providing misleading information on an investment product.

The lawsuit filed in New York alleged that Credit Suisse “failed to disclose conflicts of interest and other material information, and provided misleading information, when structuring, marketing and selling an investment, known as Farmington, to ADCB in 2007,” the bank said in an e-mailed statement Nov. 26. The lender also alleged that Standard & Poor’s “provided inaccurate, investment-grade ratings to assets associated with the Farmington structure.”

Abu Dhabi Commercial made a 560 million-dirham ($153 million) provision in 2007 for losses from investments in the U.S. subprime mortgage market. The bank also sued Morgan Stanley & Co., Bank of New York Mellon Corp. and three securities ratings services for allegedly rating too highly a structured investment vehicle that collapsed in 2007.

The bank invested in a structured investment vehicle known as Stanfield Victoria in 2005 and 2006, and the investment vehicle faced liquidity issues in 2007, according to the statement. Abu Dhabi Commercial alleged it was “induced to enter into an emergency restructuring transaction, Farmington, based on false and misleading information.”

A spokeswoman for Credit Suisse and a spokesman for Standard & Poor’s weren’t immediately available to comment when called Nov. 24.

Hewlett-Packard Sued in Sealed Cases Over Mark Hurd Departure

Hewlett-Packard Co., the world’s largest computer maker, was sued by shareholders seeking information about the company’s ouster of former Chief Executive Officer Mark Hurd.

In one of two cases filed in Delaware Chancery Court, mostly under seal, shareholder Lawrence Zucker sued some HP directors seeking “monetary relief” on behalf of the company.

According to a summary posted on the Wilmington, Delaware, court’s public docket describing some of the sealed complaint’s contents, the investor alleged that officials of the Palo Alto, California-based computer-maker violated their duties. According to the Nov. 24 summary, the plaintiff alleged in the complaint that the defendants caused “corporate waste arising out of a severance agreement between Hewlett-Packard and Mark Hurd.” In the previous suit, filed Nov. 18, shareholder Ernesto Espinoza seeks the release of “corporate documents.”

Hurd, 53, resigned as HP’s chairman and CEO on Aug. 6, after a company investigation of a sexual harassment-allegation determined that he violated its standards of business conduct, according to a statement from Hewlett-Packard. The former contractor who made the harassment claim was later identified by her lawyer Gloria Allred as Jodie Fisher. HP said it didn’t find that Hurd had violated its harassment policy.

Hurd now works for software maker Oracle Corp. as a co- president.

Mylene Mangalindan, an HP spokeswoman, didn’t return phone messages seeking comment on the lawsuits Nov. 26. Glenn Bunting, a spokesman for Hurd at Sitrick & Co., couldn’t immediately be reached for comment. Deborah Hellinger, a spokeswoman for Redwood City, California-based Oracle, declined to comment in an e-mailed message.

The cases are Zucker v. Andreessen, CA6014, and Espinoza v. Hewlett-Packard Co., CA6000, Delaware Chancery Court (Wilmington).

For more, click here.

Australian Regulator to Sue CBA, Macquarie Over Storm

The Australian Securities & Investments Commission said it will commence proceedings against Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Bank of Queensland Ltd. and Macquarie Bank Ltd. seeking compensation for investors in Storm Financial Ltd., according to an e-mailed statement.

Commonwealth Bank, Australia’s largest lender, said in a statement it will “strongly defend” its position in any legal proceedings stemming from Storm Financial. Commonwealth Bank in December 2008 contacted Storm customers to notify them of margin lending breaches, and in January 2009 Storm closed its business and fired all employees as its investments soured.

Commonwealth Bank had agreed to refund investors where it had been found the bank lent them money “imprudently,” the Australian Newspaper reported in February. Bank of Queensland said in a filing it’s disappointed with the approach by the regulator, while Macquarie Group Ltd., parent company of Macquarie Bank, said it is “disappointed by the claims made by ASIC, which it believes are unsustainable and speculative.”

ASIC said in its statement Nov. 26 that it won’t commence proceedings for as long as three weeks as talks to resolve the dispute continue.

Novell Sued Over $2.2 Billion Attachmate Buyout

Novell Inc., the software maker being bought by Attachmate Corp. for $2.2 billion, was sued by a stockholder who contends the $6.10-a-share bid is “inadequate.”

The proposed sale doesn’t treat all shareholders equally, investor Lawrence Fisk said in his complaint, filed in Delaware Chancery Court in Wilmington on Nov. 23, the day after the Attachmate offer was announced. Hedge-fund manager Elliott Associates LP, which failed to take Novell private in March, would get 7 percent of the merged company for its 7 percent stake in Novell.

Those, and other terms, “are fundamentally unfair to plaintiff and the other shareholders of the company,” Fisk said.

Novell, based in Waltham, Massachusetts, began looking for another buyer after rejecting Elliott’s $2 billion takeover offer in March. Elliott’s desire to retain a stake in the merged company shows that the hedge-fund manager believes the price is too low, the complaint alleges. The offer denies future value to other shareholders who aren’t being given the same opportunity, the lawsuit claims.

Novell spokesman Ian Bruce didn’t return a call for comment.

The case is Fisk V. Novell Inc., 6012, Delaware Chancery Court (Wilmington).

J. Crew, TPG Sued by Shareholder Over Buyout Deal

J. Crew Group Inc. and TPG Capital were sued by a J. Crew shareholder seeking to block the clothing retailer’s proposed $3 billion buyout, which he said undervalues the company.

The acquisition of J. Crew by TPG and Leonard Green & Partners LP for $43.50 a share “materially undervalues” the company and is unfair to stockholders, Arnold J. Church, a J. Crew shareholder, said in a complaint filed Nov. 24 in New York State Supreme Court.

“In short, the proposed acquisition is designed to unlawfully divest J. Crew’s public stockholders of the future growth potential of the company by engaging in an unfair process riddled with self-dealing,” the complaint states.

J. Crew announced the buyout by TPG and Leonard Green on Nov. 23. The lawsuit seeks class-action, or group, status on behalf of J. Crew shareholders, according to the complaint. Besides J. Crew and TPG, the complaint names as defendants Leonard Green and J. Crew officers and directors, including Chief Executive Officer Millard “Mickey” Drexler.

A J. Crew spokesman couldn’t be reached for comment. Spokesmen for TPG and Leonard Green couldn’t be reached for comment because their offices were closed.

The case is Arnold J. Church v. J. Crew Group Inc., 652101-2010, New York State Supreme Court (Manhattan).

For the latest new suits news, click here. For copies of recent civil complaints, click here. For the latest lawsuits news, click here.

Trials/Appeals

Ex-Utility Manager May Settle Charges Over UBS Deal

The former head of a German municipal utility and two brokers charged with corruption connected to collateralized debt obligation transactions with UBS AG and other banks may reach a plea deal with prosecutors and the court.

A settlement proposal will be presented Dec. 1, presiding judge Karsten Nickel said on the first day of a trial in Leipzig, Germany. The men are accused of working together when arranging the deal and of sharing kickbacks from the transactions.

“We offered a settlement to the defendants earlier during the probe and have said that we wish to hear confessions and see prison terms of several years,” prosecutor Till von Borries told reporters after the Nov. 26 hearing. “These were highly criminal activities.”

The case is related to hedging transactions in 2006 and 2007 for cross-border leasing deals KWL-Kommunale Wasserwerke Leipzig GmbH, the Leipzig water utility, had previously closed. KWL in February filed a suit in Leipzig against UBS, Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemberg and Depfa Bank Plc to invalidate the transactions in which KWL assumed guarantees for unsecured loans.

Four UBS employees are also being investigated over the issue, von Borries said. At least some of the suspects no longer work at the lender, he said, without identifying them.

UBS spokeswoman Anja Schlenstedt declined to comment.

Klaus Heininger, the former managing director of KWL- Kommunale, is on trial on charges of accepting bribes, breach of trust, falsifying financial statements and tax evasion. Two other suspects, financial advisers Juergen Blatz and Berthold Senf, are charged with bribing Heininger. Heininger is also facing charges in a related case that goes to trial on Dec. 9.

The lawyers for the three defendants told the court at the Nov. 26 hearing they won’t comment on the allegations before the end of settlement talks. They declined to comment after the hearing.

The criminal case is LG Leipzig, 11 Kls 395 Js 2/10.

For more, click here.

For the latest trial and appeals news, click here.

Verdicts/Settlement

Ex-PM Group Manager Convicted in Insider Trading Case

A former PM Group Plc manager was convicted of insider trading by a London jury on charges he sold shares of the company before it announced that orders had fallen.

Neil Rollins, 46, was convicted Nov. 26 on five counts of insider dealing and four counts of money laundering in a case filed by the U.K. Financial Services Authority.

Judge James Wadsworth said he would issue a sentence on Jan. 21. The maximum penalty for insider dealing is seven years. Rollins is aware that the Wadsworth “is going to send him to prison,” his lawyer, Gareth Rees, told the court. “The question is, how long.”

Rob Rode, another lawyer for Rollins, declined to comment after the hearing.

Rollins testified during the trial that while he had been told by his bosses not to trade on any information he had about the company, his decision to sell the shares wasn’t influenced by the confidential data. He denied all wrongdoing.

According to the indictment, Rollins sold 74,000 shares in the company in August and September 2006. He transferred 120,000 pounds ($193,000) to his father in an attempt to launder his profits, the indictment said.

Charges Against Agliotti for Kebble’s Murder Dropped

Charges against Glenn Agliotti for the murder of South African mining magnate Brett Kebble were dropped by a Johannesburg court.

The state has not made a prima facie case, Judge Frans Kgomo said in the South Gauteng High Court Nov. 26. Agliotti, 54, kissed his lawyer, Laurance Hodes, on both cheeks after Kgomo told him he was free to go.

“I am very angry for what they put me through” Agliotti, who was arrested in 2006, told reporters at the court as friends clustered around the convicted drug dealer. “It affected my whole life, my family is very traumatized.”

The four-month trial showed that Kebble, who died at the age of 41, had become a suicidal recluse as he considered poisoning himself and bringing down a plane that he was in before ordering his own shooting to avoid a possible jail sentence. Kebble bled to death in his silver Mercedes S600 on the night of Sept. 27, 2005, after being shot seven times on a road crossing the main highway into Johannesburg’s city center.

Kebble, who had been forced to resign as chief executive officer of three mining companies, faced a probe after assets worth hundreds of millions of dollars went missing from Randgold & Exploration Ltd., a Johannesburg-based company that he led. Marais Steyn, Randgold’s CEO, declined to comment when called Nov. 26.

In an 11-year career in South Africa’s gold mining industry, Kebble, who was also CEO of Johannesburg’s JCI Ltd. and Western Areas Ltd., helped set up two of the country’s four biggest gold companies, Harmony Gold Mining Co. and DRDGold Ltd.

Testimony from Clinton Nassif, who said he helped arrange the killing, was “annihilated”, Hodes said on Nov. 18. Agliotti didn’t testify.

“I don’t see anything embarrassing about this,” Mthunzi Mhaga, a spokesman for the National Prosecuting Authority, told reporters at the court, adding that the prosecutors will decide whether to appeal the judgment. The state will continue to seek the extradition of John Stratton, a business partner of Kebble’s, from Australia to help with investigations, he said.

Kgomo said Nov. 26 that Nassif had been discredited and stripped him of immunity from prosecution. Nassif on July 29 told the court that Kebble “pleaded” with him to arrange the killing.

“Nassif was proven to be an untruthful witness who changed his version whenever an inconsistency in his evidence was pointed out,” Kgomo said. “Nassif’s evidence is of such poor quality that it cannot be safely relied on.”

For more, click here.

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Court Filings

GM Liquidation Case Most Popular Docket on Bloomberg

General Motors Corp.’s bankruptcy case was the most- read litigation docket on the Bloomberg Law system last week.

GM filed for bankruptcy in June 2009. It sold its more valuable assets to a newly formed company that has since gone public. Unwanted properties were left under bankruptcy protection.

Last week, the liquidation terms were delayed after creditors complained. On Nov. 22, U.S. Bankruptcy Judge Robert Gerber in Manhattan scheduled a hearing on Dec. 2 after attorneys for the government and creditors said they’d failed to agree on the budget for the trusts in the wind-down of the now- defunct part of the carmaker. A creditors’ lawyer, Thomas Moers Mayer, said creditors and the U.S. Treasury disagree on several other issues as well in the largest manufacturing reorganization in history.

The case is In re Motors Liquidation Co., 09-50026, U.S. Bankruptcy Court, Southern District of New York (Manhattan).

For more, click here.

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New crest Halts Ivory Coast Mine, Rand gold Mulls Unrest

2010-12-14T04:21:00.000-08:00

Newcrest Mining Ltd., Australia’s largest gold mining company, suspended operations at its Bonikro mine in Ivory Coast on the weekend because of political unrest. Randgold Resources Ltd. said it’s monitoring the situation.

The mine, located near Hire about 250 kilometers (155 miles) northwest of the commercial capital of Abidjan, produces about 120,000 ounces of gold annually, Melbourne-based Newcrest said today in a statement to the Australian stock exchange.

The West African nation has seen an increasingly violent political crisis develop following a disputed Nov. 28 election in which two rivals laid claim to the presidency. Former South African President Thabo Mbeki has travelled to Ivory Coast seeking to defuse the situation.

“Plans are in place to recommence operations as soon as possible,” Newcrest said. “A detailed security plan is in place and includes provision for temporary evacuation of employees should the situation deteriorate.”

Randgold said its Tongon mine in the north of the country was operating normally and it was monitoring the political and security situation. Cargill Inc. is “experiencing some challenges” while trying to operate as normally as possible.

Cluff Gold Plc’s operations are unaffected, spokesman Simon Robinson said. The company’s Angovia mine in Ivory Coast produces about 25 percent of its gold. Barry Callebaut AG, the world’s biggest maker of bulk chocolate, said cocoa factories or exports from the world’s largest grower haven’t been disrupted.

Newcrest acquired the Bonikro operation as part of the takeover of Lihir Gold Ltd. that was completed this year.

Randgold fell 2.4 percent to 5,885 pence by the 4:30 p.m. close of London trading, while Cluff slipped 2.8 percent to 111.5 pence. Newcrest rose 0.9 percent in Sydney.

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U.K. Stocks Retreat; Fresnillo, Randgold, Capital Shopping Drop

2010-12-14T04:19:00.000-08:00

U.K. stocks declined as weaker metal prices and a stronger U.S. dollar dragged raw-material companies lower and Simon Property Group Inc. said it may withdraw its bid for Capital Shopping Centres Group Plc.

Fresnillo and Randgold Resources Ltd. both lost more than 3 percent. Capital Shopping retreated 5.3 percent after Simon said it will withdraw its bid if Capital Shopping refuses to provide the financial information needed to evaluate the company.

The benchmark FTSE 100 Index declined 0.2 percent to 5,794.53 at the 4:30 p.m. close in London. The gauge has rallied 7.1 percent this year as corporate profits improved, the Federal Reserve announced a $600 billion bond-purchase program to stimulate the U.S. economy and the European Union bailed out the Greek and Irish economies. The FTSE All-Share Index slid 0.3 percent today, while Ireland’s ISEQ Index advanced 1 percent.

“It has been a choppy trading session today with a lack of any significant economic data giving the market no drivers,” Giles Watts, head of equities at City Index Ltd. in London, said. The stronger dollar is “pressurizing commodity prices, forcing heavyweight mining and energy stocks lower.”

Fresnillo declined 4.9 percent to 1,527 pence and Randgold Resources dropped 3.5 percent to 5,700 pence. Kazakhmys Plc lost 2 percent to 1,523 pence. Silver, nickel and zinc prices retreated.

Capital Shopping Tumbles

Capital Shopping declined 5.3 percent to 386.2 pence, its largest drop in six weeks.

“By declining to provide us with the requested limited due-diligence information, you have constrained the exploration of an opportunity to benefit your shareholders,” Simon said in a letter to Capital Shopping included in a statement today.

Smith & Nephew Plc gained 9.1 percent to 662 pence. The Daily Mail reported that a U.S. group of private equity companies may make a 800 pence bid for the shoulder and knee implant maker. The Daily Mail didn’t say where it got the information.

Smith & Nephew’s external spokesman Jon Coles said the company doesn’t comment on market rumors.

Burberry Group Plc, the U.K.’s largest luxury retailer, rallied 2.3 percent to 1,156 pence as investors speculated that PPR SA, the French owner of the Gucci and Puma brands, may make bid for the company.

“There have been reports that PPR was close to an agreement with Steinhoff to sell Conforama,” Peter Farren, an analyst at Bryan Garnier & Co., said. “That would fuel speculation on Burberry.”

M&A Deals

“M&A and buyback activity will increase significantly over the next 12 months,” Andrew Garthwaite, the head of global equity strategy at Credit Suisse Group AG, wrote in a report today. “We think that the corporate sector could end up being the major buyer of equities.”

Credit Suisse reduced its stance on U.K. stocks to “benchmark” from “overweight,” saying the pound’s strength may limit equities’ gains.

Prudential Plc climbed 3.7 percent to 634.5 pence as UBS AG added Britain’s largest insurer to its European “key calls” list and Standard & Poor’s raised its outlook for the U.S. life insurance industry to “stable.”

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Mortgage-Bond Slump No `Fun' for Housing as Rates Increase: Credit Markets

2010-12-14T04:11:00.000-08:00

A slump in government-backed mortgage bonds that’s sent yields to the highest level since May is threatening a recovery in the U.S. housing market, which had been bolstered by record-low borrowing costs.

Yields on Fannie Mae-guaranteed securities that most affect loan rates jumped as high as 4.21 percent yesterday, an increase of 1 percentage point from an all-time low in October, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. They ended New York trading at 4.1 percent.

Higher loan rates “won’t be fun” for a fragile housing market, said Scott Simon, head of mortgage bonds at Newport Beach, California-based Pacific Investment Management Co., manager of the world’s biggest bond fund. “If you were looking at buying a house a few weeks ago, the same house, to you, looks as much as 9 percent more expensive,” he said.

Investors in agency mortgage securities have suffered during this month’s crash in bond prices amid speculation that President Barack Obama’s agreement to extend and expand tax cuts will bolster growth and inflation. While the drop hasn’t been as severe as for Treasuries, the effects of higher mortgage rates, along with climbing gasoline prices, will offset much of the tax package’s intended stimulative effects, according to Gluskin Sheff & Associates Chief Economist David Rosenberg.

Monthly Payments Climb

The average rate on a typical 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has climbed for four weeks, to an average of 4.61 percent last week, according to Freddie Mac, pushing the monthly cost of a $300,000 loan to $1,540, from $1,462. The rate had dropped to a record low 4.17 percent in the week ended Nov. 11 amid speculation that a bond purchasing program by the Federal Reserve would restrain yields.

Elsewhere in credit markets, the extra yield investors demand to own company bonds instead of similar-maturity government debt was unchanged at 171 basis points, or 1.71 percentage points, down from this year’s high of 201 basis points in June, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Global Broad Market Corporate Index. Yields averaged 3.952 percent.

Occidental Petroleum Corp. sold $2.6 billion of debt in the biggest bond offering in more than five weeks. Australia’s four biggest banks may cut borrowing costs by as much as 40 percent selling covered bonds after the government pledged to lift a ban on issuing the securities.

Bonds from Fairfield, Connecticut-based General Electric Co. were the most actively traded U.S. corporate securities by dealers, with 120 trades of $1 million or more, according to Trace, the bond-price reporting system of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority.

The Barclays Capital Global Aggregate Index of bonds has returned 0.03 percent this month, bringing this year’s gain to 4.22 percent.

Occidental Sale

Occidental, the largest onshore crude producer in the continental U.S., sold $600 million of three-year notes that yield 50 basis points more than similar-maturity Treasuries, $700 million of five-year debt at a 60 basis-point spread and $1.3 billion of 10-year bonds at 80 basis points over benchmarks, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.

The sale is the biggest since Coca-Cola Co., the world’s largest soft-drink maker, issued $4.5 billion of bonds on Nov. 4, Bloomberg data show. Proceeds may be used to fund acquisitions, the Los Angeles-based company said yesterday in a regulatory filing.

Occidental last tapped debt markets in May 2009, issuing $750 million of 4.125 percent, 7-year notes. The debt traded on Dec. 9 at 108.68 cents on the dollar, Trace data show.

IBM Notes

Armonk, New York-based International Business Machines Corp. sold $1 billion of floating-rate notes in its first offering of that type of debt in more than a year. The notes yield 3 basis points more than the three-month London interbank offered rate, a lending benchmark, Bloomberg data show.

Westpac Banking Corp., Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. and National Australia Bank Ltd. may be able to issue three-year covered bonds priced to yield about 50 basis points more than the bank bill swap rate, less than the 85 basis-point spread on senior debt, according to Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc. Moody’s Investors Service estimates savings of 20 percent.

‘Essential Weapons’

Covered bonds are “essential weapons as banks look for cheaper and more diversified sources of funding,” John Manning, a credit analyst at RBS in Sydney, said in a telephone interview.

Australian banks are currently barred from selling the securities, which are backed by assets such as mortgages that can be sold in the event of a default, because they conflict with local laws stating depositors’ interests should come ahead of creditors.

The Markit iTraxx Financial Index of credit-default swaps insuring the junior debt of European 25 banks and insurers fell 10 basis points to 316 today, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. The gauge climbed Dec. 10 to the highest level since April 2009 on wagers bondholders will have to share in bank bailout costs.

Contracts tied to Spanish government debt fell 2 basis points to 331 basis points after the Treasury issued 2.5 billion euros ($3.4 billion) of Treasury bills, below the maximum target for the auction and at higher yields than it paid at previous sales.

Credit-default swaps typically drop as investor confidence improves and rise as it deteriorates. Contracts pay the buyer face value if a borrower fails to meet its obligations, less the value of the defaulted debt. A basis point equals $1,000 annually on a contract protecting $10 million of debt.

Leveraged Loans

The Standard & Poor’s/LSTA US Leveraged Loan 100 Index rose for a fifth day yesterday, climbing 0.12 cent to 92.16 cents on the dollar. The index, which tracks the 100 largest dollar- denominated first-lien leveraged loans, has returned 0.79 percent this month, bringing this year’s return to 8.56 percent. Leveraged loans and junk bonds are rated below Baa3 at Moody’s Investors Service or less than BBB- at S&P.

In emerging markets, the extra yield investors demand to own corporate bonds rather than government debt rose 5 basis points to 233 basis points, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. index data.

Yields on agency mortgage bonds are now guiding rates on almost all new U.S. home lending following the collapse of the non-agency market in 2007 and a retreat by banks. The $5.3 trillion market includes debt guaranteed by government-supported Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and federal agency Ginnie Mae.

Fannie Mae Spread

The difference between yields on Fannie Mae’s current- coupon securities, which most influence loan rates because they trade closest to face value, and 10-year Treasuries has narrowed to 82 basis points, from a 15-month high of 99 basis points on Dec. 1, Bloomberg data show.

A widening of spreads before the rise in yields and an outlook for lower bond issuance as fewer homeowners refinance have helped agency mortgage bonds outperform the Treasury market this month, said Tom Sontag, a portfolio manager in Chicago at Neuberger Berman Group LLC.

“They had gotten more attractive from a spread standpoint: That drew investors into them, which prevented their prices from falling further,” said Sontag, whose firm oversees about $16 billion in structured-product investments.

Demand Slump

Housing demand has slumped this year as tax credits for buyers expired and unemployment hovered below 10 percent. Sales of existing homes, which reached a record low in July, rose to an annual pace of 4.43 million in October, compared with a yearly average of 5.81 million in the past decade, the National Association of Realtors said Nov. 23.

About 10.8 million homes, or 22.5 percent of those with mortgages, were worth less than the debt owed on them as of Sept. 30, according to CoreLogic Inc. An additional 2.4 million had less than 5 percent equity, the Santa Ana, California-based real-estate information company said Dec. 12.

As many as 8 million homes are in some stage of default or foreclosure, known as shadow inventory, and may be offered for sale over the next five years, according to Morgan Stanley.

“The run-up in mortgage rates will not be suppressing demand at a time when the market is close to being in balance, but when there is still gargantuan excess supply,” Rosenberg said in a telephone interview. He cited an S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index showing a 1.5 percent decline in the three months ended in September.

Affordability

Agency mortgage securities returned 37 basis points more than similar-duration Treasuries this month through Dec. 10, losing 98 basis points on an absolute basis, according to Barclays Capital index data.

“It’s definitely been a meaningful move in yields and clearly that move has had a direct impact on mortgage rates,” said Matthew Marra, a fixed-income portfolio manager at New York-based BlackRock Inc., the world’s largest asset manager.

The increase also exacerbated a selloff in Treasuries, as mortgage investors and servicers shed debt with the projected lives of their securities roughly doubling on average because of lower forecasts for homeowner refinancing, he said.

The increased affordability of homes in light of lower home prices means that the recent rise in mortgage rates will have little effect on the value of bonds in the non-agency mortgage market, said Neuberger’s Sontag, who has been buying subprime- mortgage securities.

“They’re still pretty low rates,” said Didi Weinblatt, vice president of mutual fund portfolios at USAA Investment Management in San Antonio, where she helps oversee about $45 billion.

High-Yield

Non-agency home-loan bonds have joined high-yield company debt this month in avoiding losses thanks to their higher projected yields. High-yield bonds have returned 0.95 percent this month, Bank of America Merrill Lynch index data show.

Typical prices for the most-senior securities backed by option adjustable-rate mortgages rose to 53.95 cents on the dollar, from 52.60 cents on Nov. 30 and 48.21 cents on Dec. 31, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. data. Option ARMs allow borrowers to pay less than the interest they owe each month, adding the unpaid amount to the overall mortgage balance.

“If rates go up another 100 basis point will that have an impact? Yes. Do I think that’s going to happen in the near-term? No,” Sontag said. “To not think that the 10-year Treasury around these levels is at fair value, you have to buy into the theory that inflation genie is out of the bottle.”

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Global Airlines 2011 Profit to Drop 40% on Tax, Oil, IATA Says

2010-12-14T03:58:00.000-08:00

Global Airlines 2011 Profit to Drop 40% on Tax, Oil, IATA Says

Airlines may post a 40 percent decline in combined profits next year on slower economic growth, higher fuel costs and austerity measures in Europe, a leading industry group said today.

Net income will drop to $9.1 billion in 2011 from $15.1 billion this year, International Air Transport Association Chief Executive Officer Giovanni Bisignani told a press briefing in Geneva. As revenue is set to grow 5.8 percent to $598 billion, the profit margin will almost halve to 1.5 percent, he said.

“Margins remain pathetic,” Bisignani said. “The recovery cycle will pause in 2011. Although the $9.1 billion profit projection for 2011 is better than we had previously forecast, next year the industry will face tougher conditions than what we are experiencing today.”

A recovery in demand for air traffic after the deepest economic downturn since World War II has been uneven, with European carriers such as Deutsche Lufthansa AG struggling to boost ticket prices in their region. Economic growth in Asia and capacity reductions in North America are helping airlines in those continents increase profit. IATA’s previous global profit forecasts for 2010 and 2011, made in September, were $8.9 billion and $5.3 billion, respectively.

‘Knife Edge’

“The industry is fragile and balancing on a knife edge,” Bisignani said. “Any shock could stunt the recovery, as we are seeing with the results of new or increased taxation on airlines and travelers in Europe.”

The industry, which lost $51 billion between 2001 and 2009, isn’t “even close” to recovering half its cost of capital, which is between 7 percent and 8 percent, Bisignani said today.

British Airways Plc, Europe’s third-largest carrier, said today that it will increase fuel surcharge on longhaul flights from Dec. 16 by 10 pounds ($16) per passenger per flight, reflecting the recent increase in oil price. That would be the first jump since June 2008, according to Richard Goodfellow, a London-based spokesman.

An increase in the average price of oil to $84 a barrel next year from $79 in 2010 will lead to fuel making up 27 percent of airline cost next year, IATA said. Jet fuel is the single largest cost item for an airline.

German Taxes

Oil traded near $90 a barrel on forecasts that U.S. crude stockpiles are declining as colder weather approaches the nation. The January contract was at $88.52 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 10:16 a.m. London time. Prices have risen 12 percent this year.

Higher taxes in Germany, Austria and the U.K. will increase travel cost by a range of 3 percent and 5 percent next year, “enough to discourage travel and slow the industry recovery,” IATA said.

“This year profit have been significantly higher than we would have expected coming out of the recession,” said Jonathan Wober, an analyst at Societe Generale SA in London. “Clearly there are always risks, global GDP growth being the most important, but it seems we are still in an upswing.”

The eight-company Bloomberg EMEA Airlines Index climbed 1 percent at 11:27 a.m. in London. Air France-KLM Group, Europe’s biggest airline, gained 1.3 percent in Paris. Lufthansa added 1.3 percent in Frankfurt. British Airways rose 0.3 percent on the London exchange.

Delta, United

Net income for Asia-Pacific carriers, the most profitable group that includes Singapore Airlines Ltd. and Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd., will drop to $4.6 billion next year from $7.7 billion in 2010, IATA said.

North America airlines, led by United Airlines, Continental Airlines and Delta Air Lines Inc., are facing a decline in 2011 profit to $3.2 billion from $5.1 billion.

European airlines’ profit will fall to $100 million in 2011 from $400 million this year, IATA said. In September, IATA predicted a $1.3 billion loss for 2010 for Europe, the weakest among the regions in the forecast.

The organization cut its 2010 forecast for growth in airfreight demand to 18.5 percent from 19.8 percent, and fares will probably grow 7 percent instead of 7.9 percent as companies are completing a restocking of inventories. Demand for cargo will grow 5.5 percent next year while average prices will be little changed, IATA said.

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Spain Sells 2.5 Billion Euros of Bills as Borrowing Costs Surge on Ireland

2010-12-14T03:49:00.000-08:00

Spain sold 2.5 billion euros ($3.4 billion) of Treasury bills, below the maximum target for the auction, as contagion from Ireland’s bailout prompted a surge in the country’s borrowing costs.

The Treasury sold 1.99 billion euros of 12-month bills and 523 million euros of 18-month bills, the Bank of Spain in Madrid said today. The average yield on the 12-year bills was 3.449 percent, compared with 2.363 percent when similar-maturity securities were sold on Nov. 16, and the 18-month paper yielded 3.721 percent, up from 2.664 percent in November. The Treasury set a maximum target of 3 billion euros for the auction.

The gap between Spanish and German bond yields surged on Nov. 30 to the widest since the start of the euro amid speculation Spain may follow Ireland into a European Union bailout. Faced with higher debt costs, Finance Minister Elena Salgado said on Nov. 26 the Treasury will issue less debt than planned at the last auctions set for the year, including bond sales on Dec. 16, as the state has met its 2010 financing needs.

“The big story is going to be Thursday,” said Gianluca Salford, a fixed-income strategist at JP Morgan in London. “All the other peripheral countries have been out of the market for December, liquidity is poor, final demand is poor, so technically the situation for Spain is bad,” even as falling prices may mean the bonds perform better after the next sale.

Spanish bonds continued to decline on the secondary market after the sale, with the 10-year bond yield rising to 5.538 percent. The spread widened to 256.7 basis points, compared with 247.7 basis points yesterday and an average of 15 basis points for the first decade of monetary union. The gap reached a euro- era intraday record of 298 basis points on Nov. 30. The euro strengthened 0.4 percent to $1.3443.

Bond Buying

The European Central Bank increased its bond purchases last week as part of its package of measures aimed at easing the sovereign debt crisis. The Frankfurt-based ECB said it completed 2.667 billion euros of purchases, the most in 23 weeks, after settling 1.965 billion euros the previous week. The bank hasn’t said which countries’ securities it is buying.

As the sovereign-debt crisis spreads from Ireland to Spain, Portugal and Italy, European leaders meet in Brussels on Dec. 16 and Dec. 17. On the agenda are discussions about the creation of a permanent rescue mechanism to replace the existing bailout fund that expires in 2013.

Spain has repeatedly said it doesn’t need external help and is making banks and regional governments provide investors with additional data in an attempt to disprove suspicions about the country’s fiscal and financial health.

Banks will start publishing additional information about their real-estate exposure and wholesale funding next year. This is necessary as “the perception of reality is much worse than reality itself,” Bank of Spain Governor Miguel Angel Fernandez Ordonez said yesterday.

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Pound Trades Near 3-Week High Versus Dollar Before U.K. Inflation Report

2010-12-14T03:46:00.001-08:00

The pound traded near the highest level in three weeks against the dollar as a report showed U.K. inflation remained above the government’s 3 percent limit last month.

Consumer prices rose 3.3 percent from a year earlier after a 3.2 percent increase in October, the Office for National Statistics said today in London. That’s the highest since May and exceeded the 3.2 percent median forecast of 33 economists in a Bloomberg survey. Sterling advanced above $1.59 for the first time since Nov. 23. The U.K. housing-market gauge stayed close to the lowest in 18 months in November. Government bonds slipped, erasing earlier gains.

“Inflation expectations are bolstering sterling,” said Jane Foley, a senior currency strategist at Rabobank International in London. “There seems little scope for any moderation in inflation, given there’s an increase in sales tax next month. This suggests the chances of further quantitative easing by the Bank of England are extremely slim.”

The pound rose against the dollar, advancing 0.1 percent to $1.5882 as of 10:08 a.m. in London. It reached $1.5911 earlier. Sterling depreciated 0.3 percent to 84.65 pence per euro.

“There’s been an element of profit-taking into the year- end as investors sell their dollars,” Simon Smollett, a currency analyst at Credit Agricole Corporate & Investment Bank in London, said in a telephone interview.

Inflation

Inflation has been above the government’s 3 percent limit for nine months and a sales-tax increase in January may add to prices in 2011. Bank of England Deputy Governor Charles Bean said yesterday the strength of inflation has increased the risk to price expectations and there may also be less slack in the economy than previously thought.

Bank of England policy makers last week held their asset- purchase program unchanged at 200 billion pounds ($318 billion). Governor Mervyn King has said that consumer-price gains will stay “elevated” next year. Inflation has been stoked by higher costs of imports, partly reflecting the weakness of the pound.

The number of real-estate agents and surveyors saying prices fell exceeded those reporting gains by 44 percentage points, compared with minus 49 points in October, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said today.

Sterling has lost 0.3 percent in the past week, according to Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Currency Indexes, which track a basket of 10 developed-country currencies.

Since the end of 2009, Britain’s currency has lost 4.3 percent, compared with a 9 percent decline by the euro and a 2.3 percent loss by the dollar.

U.K. government bonds fell, with the 10-year gilt yield gaining two basis points to 3.57 percent. The two-year yield rose one basis point to 1.17 percent.

The Debt Management Office plans to sell 3.5 billion pounds of securities maturing in January 2016 tomorrow and 825 million pounds of inflation-protected securities due 2042 on Dec. 16.

Gilts returned 5.6 percent this year, according to indexes compiled by the European Federation of Financial Analysts Societies and Bloomberg. Treasuries gained 5.9 percent and German debt, the euro-area’s benchmark securities, returned 5.8 percent, the EFFAS indexes show.

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Copper Rises to Record in London Trading on Outlook for Stronger Growth

2010-12-14T03:44:00.001-08:00

Copper rose to a record for a second day in London before a U.S. report that may signal growth in the world’s biggest economy as the Federal Reserve prepares to discuss interest rates and bond purchases.

U.S. retail sales in November probably jumped for a fifth consecutive month, economists said before a Commerce Department report today. The dollar fell today on speculation the Fed may signal it’s open to increasing debt purchases to boost growth.

U.S. fiscal stimulus and “improving economic data” are supporting copper, said David Thurtell, an analyst at Citigroup Inc. in London.

Copper for delivery in three months rose as much as $37 to the all-time high of $9,262 a metric ton, and was at $9,259.75 a ton at 10:47 a.m. on the London Metal Exchange. Copper for delivery in March climbed as much as 0.5 percent to $4.227 a pound on the Comex in New York, the highest price for a most- active contract since May 2008.

The U.S. retail sales report is due at 1:30 p.m. London time.

Copper has gained 25 percent this year as declining stockpiles signaled more demand. German investor confidence improved for a second month in December as the recovery in Europe’s largest economy shows signs of broadening.

German Confidence

The ZEW Center for European Economic Research in Mannheim said its index of investor and analyst expectations, which aims to predict developments six months ahead, increased to 4.3 from 1.8 in November. Economists expected a gain to 3.9, according to the median of 36 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey.

LME inventories of copper have shrunk 30 percent this year, set for the first annual drop since 2004. They rose 450 tons to 350,900 tons today, daily exchange figures showed.

Open interest in the December LME copper contract is 15,347 contracts, each for 25 tons, or 383,675 tons in total.

“The open interest on futures exceeds the total level of stocks in LME warehouses, so that’s keeping the tightness sustained,” said Robin Bhar, an analyst at Credit Agricole SA’s investment-banking unit in London.

The U.S. currency declined as much as 0.4 percent against a basket of currencies. A slumping dollar makes metals priced in the currency cheaper in terms of other monies and spurs demand for raw materials as an alternative investment.

Copper’s “probably going to be $5 a pound ($11,023 a ton) in a year’s time,” John Stephenson, a fund manager at First Asset Investment Management Inc., said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “There’s really no supply coming on ‘till 2012, 2013 in an appreciable way.”

Aurubis Outlook

Aurubis AG, Europe’s largest copper smelter, said copper demand will grow “further” next year, supported by global economic growth.

Immediate-delivery LME copper’s premium to three-month metal rose 63 percent yesterday to $70. Prices moved on Nov. 8 to a so-called backwardation, when nearby metal trades above longer-term contracts, potentially signaling supply concern.

The fee to borrow copper for next-day delivery, the so- called tom-next spread, jumped to a premium of $10 today, compared with a discount of $2 yesterday and the highest since July 2009. An increase in the fee usually indicates tightening supply.

Tin for three-month delivery on the LME rose 0.4 percent to $26,250 a ton. Prices reached a record $27,500 on Nov. 9. The metal has jumped 55 percent this year, leading advances on the exchange, after production was disrupted in Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Aluminum rose 0.8 percent to $2,350 a ton and nickel climbed 1.5 percent to $24,890 a ton. Lead gained 0.5 percent to $2,451 a ton and zinc added 0.9 percent to $2,343.25 a ton.

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Dollar Weakens on Speculation Fed to Signal Increase in Debt-Purchase Plan

2010-12-14T03:41:00.000-08:00

The dollar fell to a three-week low against the euro as Federal Reserve policy makers prepare to discuss interest rates and bond purchases.

The greenback dropped against 13 of its 16 major counterparts on speculation the Fed may signal today it’s open to increasing debt purchases beyond the $600 billion already announced. New Zealand’s dollar reached a 10-year low against Australia’s currency after a report showed retail sales in the smaller nation slid by the most since 1997. Taiwan’s dollar climbed to a 13-year high.

“Expectations aren’t for anything particularly dramatic to come out of the Fed meeting today, but you can’t entirely discount that,” said Simon Derrick, chief currency strategist at Bank of New York Mellon Corp. in London. “As people are looking at trends for 2011 they’re realizing that although there may be plenty of slips on the way to resolving the euro crisis, it will be resolved. Therefore if you’re looking at where the prime issue will be in 2011, it probably will be the U.S.”

The U.S. currency dropped 0.5 percent to $1.3460 per euro as of 10:37 a.m. in London, after sliding 0.6 percent to the weakest since Nov. 23. The dollar declined 0.2 percent to fetch 83.21 yen from 83.39 yen. Japan’s currency was 111.85 per euro, after earlier weakening to 112.19.

The Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against the currencies of six major U.S. trading partners, extended yesterday’s declines by 0.3 percent. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields rose two basis point to 3.29 percent.

Fed’s QE

The Fed today “may emphasize it will continue the current quantitative easing, citing the unemployment rate and sluggish inflation,” strategists at Barclays Bank Plc, led by Tokyo- based chief currency strategist Masafumi Yamamoto, wrote in a note. “Such a statement is likely to weigh on U.S. mid-, long- term yields and the dollar, especially against the yen.”

Further government bond purchases by the Fed are “certainly possible,” Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said in an interview broadcast on CBS Corp.’s “60 Minutes” on Dec. 5, referring to the bank’s so-called quantitative easing program.

Moody’s Investors Service Inc. yesterday said the U.S. tax- cut package up for a procedural vote in the Senate is likely to boost economic growth in the next two years but will “adversely affect” the budget deficit.

Tax Package

Obama’s deal, announced Dec. 6, includes a two-year extension of tax rates in return for extending long-term jobless benefits for 13 months and cutting the payroll tax for $120 billion for a year.

“Unless there are offsetting measures, the package will be credit-negative for the U.S. and increase the likelihood of a negative outlook on the U.S. government’s Aaa rating during the next two years,” Moody’s Senior Credit Officer Steven Hess wrote in a note yesterday.

The euro gained as German investor confidence rose more than forecast for a second month, indicating the recovery in Europe’s largest economy may be broadening.

A ZEW Center for European Economic Research index of German investor and analyst expectations increased to 4.3 this month from 1.8 in November. ZEW’s gauge measuring sentiment in the current situation rose to 82.6 from 81.5, falling short of economist expectations.

‘Flash in the Pan’

The euro’s advance versus the dollar may be a “flash in the pan” because European officials risk failing to fix the region’s debt crisis and the Federal Reserve is unlikely to announce more asset purchases, Commerzbank AG analysts said.

“Those who had banked on additional quantitative-easing measures might be disappointed” at today’s meeting of U.S. policy makers, a team of analysts led by Ulrich Leuchtmann in Frankfurt wrote in a note to clients today.

The dollar has fallen 2.3 percent this year in a measure of the currencies of 10 developed nations, according to Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Currency Indexes. The euro has dropped 9 percent. The yen is up 10.6 percent.

New Zealand’s retail sales declined 2.5 percent in October, Statistics New Zealand said in Wellington. The drop was the biggest since May 1997.

“The kiwi fell quite sharply in response to a big fall in retail sales,” said John Kyriakopoulos, head of currency strategy in Sydney at National Australia Bank Ltd., the nation’s largest lender. “What’s been happening is the market has been pushing out the timing for when the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will raise rates again.”

New Zealand’s dollar touched NZ$1.3288 per Aussie dollar today, the weakest since November 2000, before trading at NZ$1.3236.

Taiwan’s dollar gained 0.5 percent to NT$29.900, the strongest level since October 1997. Global funds bought $1.3 billion more local shares than they sold this month through yesterday, boosting net purchases for the year to $7.8 billion.

“Strong foreign inflows and solid economic growth are drivers of the Taiwan dollar’s gain,” said Henry Lin, a Taipei- based foreign-exchange trader at Taiwan Shin Kong Commercial Bank. “The central bank won’t allow such a big rise in the currency. It’ll come in to smooth the moves very soon.”

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Estonia, Long-Time Ireland Follower, Continues Betting on Euro

2010-12-14T03:36:00.000-08:00

Estonia’s resolve to adopt the euro on Jan. 1 is strengthening as politicians, companies and consumers bet the switch will make them safer, even after the currency quaked under $260 billion of bailouts.

“We are at sea in a small boat tied to an ocean liner,” Finance Minister Jurgen Ligi said by e-mail. “In a storm or otherwise, we’d feel better being on board.”

As countries including the Czech Republic and Poland balk at adopting the euro after members were forced to bail out Ireland and Greece, Estonian support for the common currency is rising. Backing for the euro rose to 54 percent in November from 49 percent the previous month as a government campaign helped blunt concern about the debt crisis, according to a poll commissioned by the Cabinet. A new survey is due out next week.

Estonia will be the first country to join the euro region since the crisis gripped Europe. The former Soviet republic of 1.3 million people, which in the past two decades shaped its economy after Ireland, is counting on eliminating currency risk in a nation already dependent on euro-denominated loans and trade.

“We should move on as a country, and I think this will give more chances to Estonia and its people to improve their life,” said Igor Beloborodov, a 23-year old client-service representative. “I’m not worried by the Irish events.”

‘Big Brothers’

More than 90 percent of Estonian private loans are in euros, with most of them tied to the euro interbank offered rate, or Euribor, central bank data show.

“What the euro zone offers is risk sharing,” said Agnes Belaisch, a London-based strategist at Threadneedle Asset Management Ltd., which oversees $100 billion. “There are clear advantages of having big brothers.”

The euro region “can handle problems better than yesterday and tomorrow better than today” and the cost of reversing European integration would be “acceptable to no-one,” Prime Minister Andrus Ansip said in Estonia’s parliament today. The switchover will bring more jobs, higher pensions and faster economic growth to the country, he said.

The added security of euro-area membership helped persuade Statoil Fuel & Retail ASA, the biggest fuel retailer in the Nordic countries, to set up its financial center in Estonia. It spent 270 million euros ($351 million), the biggest foreign investment in the Baltic country this year.

“We could have located the center in any of the three Baltic states or in Poland,” Chief Financial Officer Klaus- Anders Nysteen said by phone. “Estonia’s entry into the euro zone was very important to our decision and definitely gave added value to the location.”

Resisting Krugman

The kroon’s exchange rate has been fixed since its 1992 introduction, first to the Deutsche mark, then to the euro. The country resisted calls from economists including Paul Krugman and Nouriel Roubini to fight the EU’s second-deepest recession by abandoning the peg, opting to cut costs and raise taxes.

The currency became an advantage among the former communist countries of eastern Europe that agreed to work toward adopting the euro when they joined the trading bloc in the last decade.

Poland, Romania, the Czech Republic and Hungary, the group’s four largest countries, use versions of floating currency regimes and are further from qualifying for euro adoption than Bulgaria, Latvia and Lithuania, which have fixed exchange rates, said Fredrik Erixon, director of the European Centre for International Political Economy in Brussels.

“If there will be another round of expansion before” the second half of the decade, “it is the remaining Baltic countries plus Bulgaria that are in line,” Erixon said in an e- mail.

Following Ireland

Estonia followed Ireland’s example of betting on foreign investment to drive growth. Estonia abolished the corporate income tax on reinvested profits in 2000, attracting Swedish and Finnish companies to its banking, telecommunications and electronics industries.

Ireland was one of the poorest countries in Europe when it joined the EU in 1973. In the 1990s, lured by a 12.5 percent corporate tax, companies such as Pfizer Inc. and Microsoft Corp. helped Ireland export its way into becoming the “Celtic Tiger” as GDP growth in the decade through 2006 averaged about 7 percent a year.

Budget Discipline

Estonia’s economic growth averaged 7.2 percent from 1995 to 2007 as Nordic lenders expanded their influence to more than 90 percent of the financial industry. The country kept its budget deficit within the EU limit of 3 percent of economic output every year except 1999.

Budget discipline helped Estonia keep its public debt at the EU’s lowest level, 8 percent of GDP this year, according to a European Commission estimate. In Ireland, the economic expansion and easy credit fanned a real estate bubble, leading to a 97 percent debt level.

Ireland needed an 85 billion-euro aid package after predicting its budget deficit would swell to 32 percent of economic output this year, the highest in the euro’s 12-year history. With Greece’s 110 billion-euro bailout, the crisis exposed flaws in the euro area’s makeup and fueling doubts whether the 16 countries belong in the same currency union.

The consensus among Scandinavian investors two years ago was that Estonia would have to devalue the kroon to exit one of the world’s worst recessions, halting the flow of investment, said Joakim Helenius, executive chairman of Tallinn-based investment bank Trigon Capital.

‘Soviet Imperial Illusions’

Some Estonians say the country should continue focusing on its own economic development instead of relying on the debt- ridden euro area.

The currency switch may lead to “massive” price increases and its “one-size-fits-all” monetary policy, which “mimics Soviet imperial illusions” are wrong for the country, Anti Poolamets, a lawyer who organized an anti-euro movement, wrote Nov. 21 on the website Delfi owned by AS Ekspress Grupp, the only publicly traded media company in the Baltic region.

A poll commissioned by Poolamets in October showed that 52.8 percent of the 1,524 respondents in the survey opposed euro adoption. While the government asked people if they wanted to adopt the euro, the competing poll also highlighted the loss of the kroon, Poolamets said.

The opposition is myopic, according to central bank Deputy Governor Marten Ross.

“Criticism of the timing of Estonia’s euro entry reminds of cases where strategic decisions have been overshadowed by tactical considerations that in the end haven’t yielded any gains,” he wrote in an e-mail.

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Dollar Weakens on Speculation of Fed Debt-Plan Increase; Spain Bonds Drop

2010-12-14T03:32:00.000-08:00

The dollar depreciated to a three- week low against the euro on speculation the Federal Reserve may buy more bonds to bolster the economy, while stocks and U.S. futures were little changed. Copper and cotton gained as Spanish and Portuguese bonds dropped.

The dollar weakened to $1.3461 per euro at 10:31 a.m. in London, from $1.3391 yesterday. Taiwan’s dollar touched a 13- year high versus the U.S. currency. The extra yield investors demand to hold Spanish 10-year bonds instead of benchmark German debt widened to a two-week high after yields increased at a bill auction. Cotton jumped 3.4 percent and copper rose 0.2 percent. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fluctuated between gains and losses of less than 0.2 percent and the Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 0.2 percent following a six-day gain.

Fed policy makers meeting today may signal a willingness to boost debt purchases beyond the $600 billion already announced to spur job growth. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke told CBS Corp.’s “60 Minutes” on Dec. 5 that the recovery may not be self-sustaining and more bond buying is “certainly possible.” The European Central Bank increased its bond purchases to 2.67 billion euros ($3.6 billion) last week, the highest in 23 weeks.

The dollar is down because of “the expectation for the Fed to reiterate its enthusiasm for future quantitative easing measures,” said Neil Jones, head of European hedge fund sales at Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd. “The surprise to the forex market would be if the Fed goes quiet on further QE measures ahead.”

Taiwan Dollar

The dollar depreciated as much as 0.8 percent against the euro, touching the weakest level since Nov. 23. It slipped 0.1 percent to 83.28 yen. Taiwan’s dollar strengthened as much as 2.3 percent against the U.S. currency, reaching its highest level since October 1997. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries climbed two basis points to 3.29 percent.

The Fed has kept its target rate for overnight loans between banks at a record-low range of zero to 0.25 percent since December 2008. Moody’s Investors Service Inc. yesterday said President Barack Obama’s agreement to extend tax cuts raises the chance of a negative outlook for the U.S.’s Aaa credit rating.

The yield on the 10-year Spanish bond rose nine basis points to 5.58 percent after the nation raised less than its 3 billion-euro maximum target at a sale of 12-month and 18-month bills, and yields increased. The difference in yield, or spread, to benchmark German bunds increased eight basis points to 256 basis points, the most since Dec. 1. Italian 10-year yields climbed two basis points to 4.61 percent as Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi won a confidence vote in the Senate before facing another vote in the lower house.

Swaps Decline

The Markit iTraxx Financial Index of credit-default swaps insuring the junior debt of 25 banks and insurers fell 8.5 basis points to 317.5, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. The gauge climbed this week to the highest level since April 2009 on speculation bondholders will have to share in bank bailout costs.

Cotton increased 5 cents, the maximum allowed by ICE Futures U.S. in New York, to $1.4597 a pound and copper gained as much as $35 to $9,260 a metric ton on speculation demand will increase in China, the largest buyer of both commodities. Orange-juice futures yesterday jumped to a three-year high on forecasts for cold in Florida, the world’s largest citrus producer after Brazil. Trading opens at 1 p.m. London time.

U.S. Index Futures

Futures on the S&P 500 expiring in March rose less than 0.1 percent before a report that may show U.S. retail sales advanced 0.6 percent in November after climbing 1.2 percent in October, according to the median estimate of economists in a Bloomberg survey. HCP Inc. may be active after the company, the biggest U.S. health-care real estate investment trust by market value, agreed to pay $6.1 billion for 338 nursing homes from HCR ManorCare Inc.

Two stocks fell for each one that gained in Europe’s Stoxx 600 even after the ZEW Center for European Economic Research in Mannheim said its index of German investor and analyst expectations, which aims to predict developments six months ahead, increased to 4.3 in December from 1.8 last month, exceeding economists’ forecasts. Outokumpu Oyj sank 6.1 percent after the Finnish stainless-steel maker said fourth-quarter operating profit will be “clearly negative.”

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose for a second day, climbing 0.5 percent. Shipbuilders led the advance after South Korea’s Hyundai Heavy Industries Co., the world’s largest producer, and STX

Offshore & Shipbuilding Co. announced orders worth about $1.6 billion.

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Asian Stocks Rise to Two-Year High as Copper, Oil Boost Material Producers

2010-12-14T03:28:00.000-08:00

Asian stocks rose, lifting the regional benchmark index to its highest level since July 2008, as increasing commodity prices boosted raw material shares. Japanese exporters fell as the yen climbed against the dollar.

BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s No. 1 mining company, advanced 0.5 percent in Sydney after copper prices reached a record and crude oil prices advanced. Cnooc Ltd., China’s largest offshore oil producer, climbed 0.8 percent in Hong Kong. Reliance Industries Ltd., owner of the world’s biggest refining complex, gained 1.3 percent in Mumbai. Canon Inc., the world’s biggest camera maker, sank 0.5 percent after the yen’s advance against the dollar soured its earnings outlook.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.9 percent to 135.5, the highest level since July 24, 2008, as of 7:46 p.m. in Tokyo. About three stocks gained for every two that fell. The gauge dropped 0.3 percent last week as concern grew that China’s central bank would raise interest rates. The bank instead increased lenders’ reserve ratio requirements.

“Fears of an interest rate increase in China have not come to fruition so far,” said Tim Schroeders, who helps manage $1 billion in Melbourne at Pengana Capital Ltd. “There’s a sense of relief in markets. This may be only temporary as Chinese authorities become increasingly concerned about the possibility of inflationary pressures undermining the economy’s longer-term growth prospects.”

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average gained 0.2 percent, while the broader Topix index rose 0.5 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index advanced 0.2 percent. South Korea’s Kospi Index climbed 0.6 percent, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 0.5 percent.

S&P 500 Futures

The Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensitive Index, or Sensex, advanced 0.6 percent to its highest level in a week as inflation slowed, giving the central bank room to hold interest rates steady after the fastest increase of any Asian country this year.

Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed 0.2 percent today. In New York, the index gained 0.06 point to 1,240.46, after rising as much as 0.5 percent, as the Senate started to vote on President Barack Obama’s tax-cut agreement with Republicans, and investors turned their attention to the Federal Reserve meeting on Dec. 14.

Material and energy stocks rose the most among the 10 industry groups represented on the MSCI Asia Pacific gauge. BHP Billiton, also Australia’s biggest oil producer, climbed 0.5 percent to A$45.65 in Sydney. Rio Tinto Group, the world’s third-largest mining company, gained 0.2 percent to A$87.90.

OZ Minerals Ltd., an Australian copper and gold mining company, jumped 5.8 percent to A$1.73, while in Seoul, Korea Zinc Co., the world’s largest producer of refined zinc, advanced 3.9 percent to 304,000 won.

Cnooc, PetroChina

Cnooc climbed 0.8 percent to HK$18.48 in Hong Kong and PetroChina Co., the nation’s biggest oil company, gained 0.6 percent to HK$10. Reliance increased 1.3 percent to 1,055.25 rupees in Mumbai, the biggest contributor to the Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index’s gains today.

Commodities rallied and the dollar weakened yesterday after China refrained from increasing interest rates. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Index of commodities advanced 1.3 percent at 5 p.m. in New York as copper futures surged to a record high of $9,248 a metric ton in London.

Crude oil for January delivery increased 0.9 percent to settle at $88.61 a barrel in New York, while the London Metal Exchange Index of prices for six industrial metals including copper, zinc and aluminum rose 2.2 percent.

‘Markets Taking Relief’

While Chinese inflation accelerated to the fastest pace in more than two years, the central bank kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged. That helped boost optimism that the world’s fastest-growing major economy will keep fueling the global expansion and demand for raw materials.

“One of the big macro-risks out there has been a Chinese policy error,” said Prasad Patkar, who helps manage about $1.8 billion at Platypus Asset Management Ltd. in Sydney. “Markets are taking a bit of relief that they’re not going to overdo it.”

Hyundai Heavy Industries Co., the world’s largest shipbuilder, jumped 8.9 percent to 417,000 won in Seoul after saying that Hapag-Lloyd AG increased an order to 10 container ships from six. Deliveries of the ships will take place between July 2012 and November 2013, it said.

Hon Hai Precision Industry Co. rose 2.2 percent to NT$115 in Taipei after a research note from Mirae Asset Securities Co. cited speculation that it will form a solar venture with GCL Poly Energy Holdings Ltd. Hon Hai’s Foxconn Technology Co. unit jumped 6.7 percent to NT$111.

U.S. Retail Sales

In Tokyo, NTN Corp., the world’s third-biggest bearing maker climbed 5.2 percent to 449 yen after Credit Suisse Group AG raised its investment rating to “outperform” from “neutral.”

Li & Fung Ltd., the No. 1 supplier to Wal-Mart Stores Inc., advanced 1.6 percent to HK$45.40 in Hong Kong ahead of a report that’s expected to show U.S. retail sales climbed as demand recovers in the world’s biggest economy. Esprit Holdings Ltd., the biggest Hong Kong-listed clothier, gained 2 percent to HK$38.85.

U.S. retail sales probably climbed in November for a fifth consecutive month, economists said ahead of a Commerce Department report later today. The median estimate of 62 economists surveyed by Bloomberg is for a 0.6 percent gain following a 1.2 percent increase in October.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index increased 11 percent through yesterday in 2010, matching the gain by the S&P 500 and beating the 9.1 percent increase by the Stoxx Europe 600 Index. Stocks in the Asian benchmark are valued at 14.8 times estimated earnings on average, compared with 14.5 times for the S&P 500 and 12.4 times for the Stoxx 600.

Canon, Honda

Canon fell 0.5 percent to 4,080 yen in Tokyo after the yen appreciated to 83.11 against the dollar, compared with 84.15 at the close of stock trading in Tokyo yesterday. Honda Motor Co., with about 80 percent of its sales outside Japan, lost 0.2 percent to 3,170 yen. A stronger yen potentially reduces the value of overseas revenue for Japanese companies.

“The yen’s appreciation will weigh on exporters” in Japan, said Kenichi Hirano, general manager and strategist at Tachibana Securities Co.

AGL Energy Ltd., Australia’s largest electricity retailer, slumped 4.9 percent to A$15.07 in Sydney after failing to buy power assets from the New South Wales state government amid reports that rival
Energy Ltd. and a unit of CLP Holdings Ltd. succeeded.

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OPEC Cheating Most Since 2004 as $100 Oil Heralds More Supply

2010-12-14T03:19:00.000-08:00

OPEC is breaching its production limits the most in six years, signaling the world’s biggest suppliers are ready to pump more crude next year as oil rallies toward $100 a barrel.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries excluding Iraq pumped 26.78 million barrels a day this year, exceeding the quotas by an average of 1.934 million a day, the highest level since 2004, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Crude rose 12 percent in 2010 as demand recovered, trading at about $90 for the first time in two years. Options to buy at $100 next December are near a five-month high.

Flouting quotas lets OPEC, which provides about 40 percent of the world’s oil, boost profits without changing targets set when the first global recession since World War II caused prices to tumble 78 percent. Analysts say the rally may lead the 12- member group to raise output next year after leaving quotas unchanged at this weekend’s meeting in Quito, Ecuador.

“Definitely $100, that would be a trigger,” said Leo Drollas, the London-based director and chief economist at the Centre for Global Energy Studies, a market researcher founded by former Saudi Oil Minister Sheikh Ahmad Zaki Yamani. “Bells are ringing in the corridors already. If this carries on, if it’s a really cold winter, we can see prices heading up to $100. At some stage even the Saudis will realize there’s something going on here, and that they should respond. And they will.”

Raising Forecasts

OPEC has maintained a production target of 24.845 million barrels a day since December 2008, the longest period that quotas have stayed unchanged since they were first used in 1982. The 11 members with quotas pumped 26.7 million barrels a day last month, 1.9 million more than targeted, Bloomberg data show.

Wall Street is raising its price forecasts for next year after crude on the New York Mercantile Exchange reached $90.76 a barrel on Dec. 7, the highest level since Oct. 8, 2008. Futures for January delivery traded at $89.11 a barrel as of 7:16 a.m. local time. Oil is up 30 percent from this year’s low on May 20, though down 40 percent from the record $147.27 on July 11, 2008.

“We are more inclined to believe that Saudi Arabia will act responsibly and encourage OPEC members to increase output early next year” to avoid a surge in oil prices, Francisco Blanch, head of commodity research at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch in New York, said in an e-mail after the Quito meeting.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said Dec. 1 that crude will average $100 in 2010 and $110 in 2012. In June last year, Goldman had predicted oil would rally to $85 by the end of 2009, though that level wasn’t attained until this April. JPMorgan Chase & Co. said Dec. 3 oil will average $93 in 2011, increasing its estimate from $89.75, and reach $120 before the end of 2012.

Higher Revenue

“OPEC will sequentially need higher revenues to pay for increasing social, investment and energy costs,” analysts at JPMorgan led by New York-based Lawrence Eagles wrote Dec. 3. “If the world economy can bear it, they will allow the acceptable price range to step up both in 2011 and 2012.”

Options that give investors the right to buy December 2011 futures at $100 rose to $7.10 on Dec. 7, the highest price since August, according to Nymex data. They averaged $6.39 this year. There are 44,981 outstanding contracts, the largest open interest for any oil-options contract in New York.

Higher prices are a tax on consumers that may stunt growth, Blanch wrote in an Oct. 17 report. Every $10-a-barrel increase adds $42 billion to the cost of U.S. imports, $49 billion in Europe, $19 billion for China and $16 billion to Japan, he said.

“Within about two weeks of oil being at $100, I think you would get more consumer-nation pressure on OPEC” to increase production, said Ann-Louise Hittle, a senior analyst at Wood Mackenzie in Boston. “Their number one concern is not to damage heavily the economic recovery that is under way.”

Consumer Confidence

Confidence among U.S. consumers increased more than forecast in December to the highest level in six months at the same time Americans began stepping up holiday spending. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment rose to 74.2 from 71.6 in late November.

Stockpiles in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development nations unexpectedly fell in the third quarter, dropping 11.5 million barrels, according to the International Energy Agency, compared with the five-year average gain of 38.6 million for that period. Growth in demand last quarter was “giddy,” with North America “remarkably strong,” the Paris- based agency said in a Dec. 10 report.

“Against a backdrop of much stronger-than-expected global oil demand growth and oil prices above two-year highs, OPEC may come under pressure to increase supplies to the market in the new year,” the IEA said in its monthly Oil Market Report.

Forward Curve

The narrowing difference between prices for futures of different maturities has pushed part of the market into so- called backwardation, where crude for soonest delivery is more expensive than for later months. That’s another sign dropping stockpiles will drive oil higher, according to Adam Sieminski, chief energy economist at Deutsche Bank AG.

Falling inventories make rallies “more sustainable,” Washington-based Sieminski wrote Dec. 3, raising his 2011 average forecast to $87.50 a barrel, from $80.

Crude for December 2011 delivery traded at $91.01 a barrel on the Nymex, 97 cents higher than December 2012 futures. It was 87 cents less than the 2012 contract on Nov. 30.

OPEC’s gathering in Quito two days ago was the seventh meeting with no change in production quotas. The group meets next in June. Asked what price level is appropriate, Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi told reporters: “How many times do I have to tell you. $70 to $80 is a good price.”

‘Fundamentals Wrong’

An increase to $100 may indicate “something wrong with fundamentals” in the market and lead OPEC to act, Abdalla El- Badri, the organization’s secretary-general, said on Dec. 9.

Venezuelan Energy Minister Rafael Ramirez told reporters after the Dec. 11 meeting ended that $100 is “fair” and he expects oil to reach that level next year.

Higher prices rather than increased production may help Iran, which can’t lift output as fast as other nations, and Venezuela, whose heavy crude deposits make drilling more expensive, according to Wood Mackenzie’s Hittle.

Iraq will account for 54 percent of the increase in OPEC’s supply capacity in the six years ending 2015, according to the IEA, replacing Iran as the biggest producer after Saudi Arabia.

Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest state-owned oil company, will start pumping 500,000 barrels a day from its Manifa field in 2013, Chief Executive Officer Khalid Al-Falih said in Dubai on Dec. 8. The kingdom has the capacity to pump 12.08 million barrels a day, of which it is now using 8.3 million barrels a day, IEA data show.

Above $100

“I don’t think you’ll see Saudi Arabia starting to eat out of the spare capacity until inventories go below the five-year average or oil prices go above $100 a barrel,” said Torbjoern Kjus, senior oil-market analyst at DnB NOR in Oslo.

OPEC’s members are Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela. Iraq is exempt from the quota system.

The group agreed on a record 4.2 million barrel-a-day supply cut at the end of 2008 in response to the recession. Adherence to that pledge peaked at 89 percent in March 2009 and was 56 percent last month, according to Bloomberg estimates.

“They could raise the quotas by a million and a half barrels a day and in theory it wouldn’t matter,” said Sieminski. “It wouldn’t change anything. They’d still be producing more than their targets.”

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hhhGold Advances on Investment Demand as Fed Meets on Rates, Bond Purchases

2010-12-14T03:05:00.000-08:00

Gold gained for a second day in London as a weaker dollar boosted demand for the precious metal as an alternative investment.

The dollar fell to a three-week low against the euro on speculation the Federal Reserve may signal today it’s open to increasing debt purchases beyond the $600 billion already announced. Gold, which usually moves inversely to the greenback, reached a record $1,431.25 an ounce on Dec. 7.

“The U.S. dollar weakness is driving gold,” Peter Fertig, owner of Quantitative Commodity Research Ltd. in Hainburg, Germany, said today by phone. “There’s still an argument for further implementation of quantitative easing in the U.S. That would benefit gold.”

Immediate-delivery bullion added $9.75, or 0.7 percent, to $1,403.93 an ounce at 9:39 a.m. in London. The metal for February delivery was 0.5 percent higher at $1,404.50 on the Comex in New York.

Gold gained 28 percent this year, set for a 10th annual gain, as investors lost confidence in currencies and bought precious metals as a protection of wealth. Further government bond purchases by the Fed are “certainly possible,” Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said in an interview broadcast on CBS Corp.’s “60 Minutes” on Dec. 5.

Gold will average $1,550 next year, up from a previous forecast of $1,400, UBS AG analyst Julien Garran wrote in a report yesterday. Platinum and palladium are also among the bank’s top picks for next year, Garran said.

‘Safety Drive’

“We expect European debt concerns, continuing implications of quantitative easing and an ongoing safety drive to fuel investor demand,” Garran said. “Absolute faith in fiat currencies remains shaky. Gold is currently behaving as a currency rather than a commodity.”

Gold assets in exchange-traded products rose 2.98 metric tons to 2,096.39 tons yesterday, according to data compiled by Bloomberg from 10 providers. Holdings reached a record 2,104.65 tons on Oct. 14. Silver holdings gained 51.02 tons to 15,090.16 tons, the highest amount since at least February, data from four providers show.

Silver for immediate delivery in London rose 0.8 percent to $29.7600 an ounce. It rose to $30.7025 on Dec. 7, the highest level since March 1980, and is up 76 percent this year. Prices reached an all-time high of $50.35 in New York in 1980, a year after the Hunt brothers tried to corner the market.

Palladium added 0.3 percent to $759.75 an ounce. Prices climbed to $779.10 on Dec. 3, the highest price since April 2001. It will be the best-performing precious metal in 2011, UBS said, raising its forecast to $800 from $625. A climb to $1,000 is “quite possible,” the bank said. Platinum was 0.8 percent higher at $1,713.75 an ounce.

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BP Capital's Pickens Interview About Oil Prices

2010-12-14T02:16:00.000-08:00

BP Capital's Pickens Interview About Oil Prices

Nov. 17 (Bloomberg) -- T. Boone Pickens, the billionaire chairman of BP Capital LLC, talks about the outlook for crude oil prices. Pickens also discusses U.S. dependence on overseas oil, and prospects for natural-gas powered vehicles and a U.S. energy bill. He talks with Tom Keene on Bloomberg Television's "Surveillance Midday." (Source: Bloomberg) طب - arabic keyboard - العاب بنات - سيرفرات - تحويل العملات

Saudi Aramco Selects General Electric for $500 Million Oilfield Contracts

2010-12-14T02:09:00.000-08:00

General Electric Co. said it was selected by state-owned Saudi Arabian Oil Co. for contracts valued at about $500 million to supply equipment and services to expand the Shaybah gas-oil processing facilities in the kingdom. The company made the announcement in an e-mailed statement today.

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Crude Oil Trades Near Four-Day High as Cold Weather to Spur Fuel Demand

2010-12-14T02:03:00.000-08:00

Oil traded near a four-day high, erasing today’s losses, as a cold spell in the U.S. boosted optimism heating fuel demand will increase.

Heating oil futures were near a two-day high after forecasts that colder-than-normal weather is likely in parts of the Midwest, Southeast and mid-Atlantic through Dec. 27. Crude also rose as China kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged, increasing confidence among investors that the nation will maintain demand for commodities.

“A weaker dollar and stronger equities helped to buoy WTI and China keeping its interest rates flat did not hurt either,” Stephen Schork, president of Group Inc. in Villanova, Pennsylvania, said in a note to clients.

The January contract was at $88.74 a barrel, up 13 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 3:42 p.m. Singapore time. Prices have risen 12 percent this year.

Florida declared a state of emergency amid severe cold that could damage crops, and a snowstorm battered the Midwest. U.S. gasoline inventories probably increased for a fourth week, according to a Bloomberg News survey before an Energy Department report tomorrow.

U.S. Stockpiles

U.S. crude stockpiles probably dropped to the lowest since July 9, according to the median of 11 analysts’ estimates before tomorrow’s energy report.

Oil inventories fell 2.6 million barrels in the seven days to Dec. 10, the survey showed. Supplies of distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, probably slipped 1 million barrels from 160.2 million.

The Energy Department is scheduled to release its weekly report at 10:30 a.m. on Dec. 15 in Washington. The industry- funded American Petroleum Institute will publish its own estimates today.

The dollar traded near a one-week low against the yen amid speculation that the Federal Reserve will signal it’s open to increasing debt purchases beyond the $600 billion already announced. The Fed’s policy makers are scheduled to meet today.

“Ultimately a weaker dollar is generally supportive of commodities because it makes it cheaper for places like China,” said Mark Keenan, chief investment officer at Cubit Asset Management Pte in Singapore. “With the government trying to rein in activity in China, maybe that effect will be a little muted this time.”

Crude prices may rise above $100 a barrel by the second half of next year as U.S. demand recovers and global inventories decline, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in its 2011 commodities outlook, dated yesterday.

Brent crude for January settlement was at $91.35 a barrel, up 16 cents, on the ICE Futures exchange in London.

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EXPERIMENTAL INVESTIGATION AND MODELING OF PRESTRESSED PRECAST HOLLOW-CORE SLABS WITH A STRUT-AND-TIE MODEL

2010-12-14T01:57:00.000-08:00

The strut-and-tie model provides one of the most useful design methods for shear critical concrete structures, and it gives a better understanding of the force flow in cracked reinforced concrete members, with struts representing the flow of compressive stresses and ties representing the flow of tension stresses. Prestressed precast hollow core slabs are used extensively for floors and roofs in precast concrete construction. For these prestressed concrete members without web reinforcement, shear can be critical for certain load configurations. The strut and tie model provides a tool for predicting the flexural and shear capacity of these slabs. This study presents a new strut-and-tie model to predict the ultimate load-carrying capacity of prestressed precast hollow core slabs and also to indicate the associated mode of failure. It is important to incorporate concrete tension elements (concrete ties) in the truss model to carry the diagonal tension forces in these members. An experimental program involving full-scale load-testing of 17 hollow core slabs, 4.7 m and 2.2 m in span and having three different depths, 200 mm, 250 mm and 300 mm was conducted by using the four point load test. The flexural and shear strength of 17 prestressed precast hollow core (PPHC) slabs with different shear span-to-depth (a/d) ratio were investigated experimentally and analytically. The results obtained from the proposed strut-and-tie model have been compared with experimental results The proposed strut-and-tie model provides good agreement with the experimental results, and it can be employed for the analysis and design of hollow core slabs.

PDF (EXPERIMENTAL INVESTIGATION AND MODELING OF PPHC SLABS WITH A STRUT AND TIE MODEL) - Registered users only
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Oil Fly Ash and Cement Kiln Dust

2010-12-14T01:52:00.000-08:00

In the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, it is anticipated that an increasing amount of oil fuel fly ash (FFA) will be produced from power plants firing crude and heavy fuel oils. Therefore, power plants in the Kingdom may face difficulties concerning the disposal of the produced FFA. Similarly, there are several companies of cement manufacturing all over Saudi Arabia producing thousands of tons of cement daily. These companies face a problem of disposing a large quantity of their cement kiln dust (CKD), which is considered as a waste material. Hence, it would be a noble task if these waste materials are utilized in civil engineering projects. Therefore, this study was conducted with the principal objective of investigating the potential usage of these two waste materials in the stabilization of two indigenous soils (i.e. sand and non-plastic marl). To achieve this objective, the two types of soil were treated with different dosages of FFA and CKD. The mixtures of these stabilized soils were thoroughly evaluated using compaction, CBR, unconfined compression and durability tests. The results of these tests were analyzed and the effect of CKD and FFA on the engineering properties of these mixtures was optimized and compared with the traditionally used stabilizing agent (Portland cement).

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Energy and exergy analyses of crude oil distillation plants

2010-12-14T01:41:00.000-08:00

This study deals with energy and exergy analyses of crude oil distillation plants. In these plants, high degree of irreversibilities (exergy analysis) only as it is a measure of quantity only whereas the second law of thermodynamics (exergy analysis) is a measure of quality as well as quantity. Exergy analysis appears to be a potential tool to determine the losses. In refinery distillation plants, there are many components of interest to be analyzed thermodynamically, e.g. the crude oil heating furnace, the distillation column and a network of heat exchangers. The previous literature works were mainly concerned with the yield percentage of the distillation plant and to some extent the energy efficiency, no detailed work was done using exergy analysis. In this study, crude oil distillation plants are modeled and analyzed thermodynamically with the aid of simulation software (SimSci/PRO II) to determine the energy efficiency, exergy efficiency and irreversibility rate of the individual components and the overall system. Effects of temperature profile and pressure profile of the distillation columns on the efficiencies and irreversibility rates are illustrated. Also, effect of modifying the conventional crude oil distillation plant is studied. Those modifications are pump-back circuits instead of pump-around circuits, adding reboiler to the distillation column and two-stage distillation columns. Results showed that operating conditions are the optimum conditions yielding the highest efficiencies and lowest irreversibility rates. Modifying the conventional model lead to an increase up to 58% for the system overall efficiency and decreases down to 40% system overall irreversibilities.

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Avoid "Boiler Room"

2010-12-13T21:46:00.001-08:00

How To Spot and Avoid "Boiler Room" Scams

The North American Securities Administrators Association estimates that unwary investors lose billions a year to investment fraud promoted over the telephone. Self-employment scams and high-tech schemes are among investments most recently heavily promoted by phone. This tip sheet is designed to provide investors with self-defense tactics to fight off the promotion of investment scams by "boiler rooms," the high-pressure phone sales operations from which sales people call to promote abusive and fraudulent deals.

How to Spot a "Boiler Room" Scam:

High-pressure sales tactics. Salesmen may make repeated calls and even become abusive, questioning, for example, the intelligence of anyone who would pass up such a "sure thing."

Outrageous promises of extraordinarily high profit at little or no risk. The rule is: The higher the return, the higher the risk. Listen for salesmen who claim it is possible to make extremely high (15, 20 or 30 percent) or even "guaranteed" profits without any risk of loss. Most legitimate firms will provide written materials clearly disclosing the potential for loss in an investment, as well as its short- and long-term tax implications.

A demand for an immediate decision. Boiler room salesmen want fast action before you have a chance to develop second thoughts or consult with a professional for advice. As a result, many deals will be "gone tomorrow," "sold out today" or have "just one of two remaining openings."

A reluctance to provide information about the sales firm or the investment. If a boiler room is uncovered, it may be subject to state or federal action. Therefore, some phone scam operators are not forthcoming when asked information about the sales operation and investment.

Mumbo-jumbo about "inside information" or "secret" technology. In order to close a sale, the voice on the other end of the phone may tell you that this is a "sure thing." A common claim is that celebrities, major corporations or banks will be investing shortly. Or the salesman may claim that a new geological report is coming out shortly. In other cases, the claim may be that the company is using some sort of hush-hush "black box" technology that makes it possible to process gold at a fraction of the cost paid by other firms.

Delayed delivery of the product and/or profits. This is a classic "red flag" of an investment scam. If you don`t have your investment in hand or under your control in some other location, you have nothing for your money. Beware of promises involving delays of more than a few weeks for delivery of your investment.

Unusual arrangements for collecting funds from investors. Some con artists try to avoid mail fraud charges by using overnight courier services (Federal Express or Purolator, for example). Other phone scam operations go even further-sending a courier or cab to pick up the check. No matter what unusual collection method is used, the purpose is the same: Don`t give customers enough time to back out of sending money.

What to Do if You Are Contacted by a Phone Scammer:

When hounded by high-pressure tactics, hang up.

Be wary of advertisements in newspapers and other publications which give little or no information other than a toll-free telephone number.

Do not make an immediate decision. Get written information first about the firm, the sales person, and the investment.

Do not part with your money until you seek out a professional (lawyer, accountant or broker) for advice.

Avoid investments you do not understand. The greater your degree of ignorance, the greater is the chance that you will be swindled.

Do not give out your credit card number over the phone to strangers.

Contact your state securities office to find out if the boiler room and sales person are registered to do business in your state. If an investment is being promoted, the firm and agent must be registered to sell into your state. (For contact information, click on "Securities Regulators" at the top of this web page or call NASAA toll-free at 1-888-84-NASAA.) In California, all boiler rooms must also be registered with the state. A call to the Better Business Bureau in the city in which the firm is located may turn up calls from investors who have been victimized.

If you suspect that a phone scammer has contacted you, notify your state securities office of the firm and the name of the salesman. Prompt action on your part may protect less wary investors.

Many investments promoted over the phone are legitimate. The wise investor will follow these simple steps in order to be able to distinguish the "good" from the "bad" in telephone solicitations.

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Investor Alert.Dishonest IAs

2010-12-13T21:31:00.000-08:00

How to Protect Your Money From Theft By Dishonest Investment Advisers

With more people in charge of their investment portfolios than ever before, state securities officials are warning investors of the increasing sophistication of investment advisers who steal money from unsuspecting clients.

Victims include everyone from the retired couple next door, to the rising young executive hoping to make a fast buck, to the doctor and his or her country-club friends. State securities agencies are moving aggressively to catch these swindlers and warn everyone that constant vigilance is the basic ingredient of being an investor in today`s securities market.

Although most investment advisers are honest, those that are not see the burgeoning field of financial advice as a great way to line their own pockets. The danger is compounded by the average investor`s desire for maximum return, the concern of retirees worried about outliving their savings, the increase in investment opportunities, and the growing number of individuals holding themselves out as qualified investment advisers nationwide.

Examples of Fraud and Abuse

The following cases are a sample of the new type of financial scams by self-proclaimed and registered small investment advisers that state securities enforcement officials are encountering:

In Illinois, Howard and John Bozovich were not properly registered as investment advisers. Nevertheless, this father-and-son accounting firm told its clients that it would pool investor funds and purchase various securities. Twelve investors ultimately provided $1.7 million. Investigators from the Illinois Securities Department uncovered massive diversion of investor funds for the personal benefit of the Bozovichs. Victims included an entire church congregation where one of the Bozovichs served as treasurer. Both men were found guilty in state and federal courts. Howard was sentenced to 15 years. John received 11 years.
In Virginia, registered investment adviser Robert K. Williams, owner of College Planning Services of Virginia Beach, advertised his expertise in repositioning assets for families seeking financial aid for their college-bound children. Offering fraudulent securities and trust agreements, he obtained $293,000 from 14 Virginia investors and used the money to pay for personal and business expenses including a luxury Mercedes with the license plate IPLAN4U. One of his victims was a 19-year-old man who lost $15,000 he had received after his father had died from cancer. Williams was convicted on one count of mail fraud, sentenced to 24 months in prison plus three years of probation, and ordered to make restitution.

The Colorado Division of Securities reports that Murleen K. Kunzman swindled $1.8 million from 80 individuals she recruited from her income tax preparation service. In league with her husband and son, the Greeley, Colorado woman convinced her carefully selected clients that they would receive returns higher than certificates of deposit from nine separate limited partnerships in residential mortgage loans that she offered. After pleading guilty, she was convicted of securities fraud and money laundering and sentenced to 57 months in federal prison. Her former clients lost everything they invested.

NASAA Members Take Action

Until recently, all investment adviser firms in the United States -- entrusted with $10 trillion in customer funds -- were required to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). But as a result of the National Securities Markets Improvement Act, which was signed into law by President Clinton on October 11, 1996, the states now have primary regulatory responsibility for investment adviser firms with less than $25 million in assets under management -- approximately 14,500 of the nealy 26,000 investment advisers and financial planners operating nationwide.

To date, all but four states require investment adviser representatives to be licensed. (Colorado, Ohio, Iowa, and Wyoming are the exceptions.) Most states require investment adviser representatives to pass an examination, undergo background checks, renew their registration annually, and report changes in their businesses or addresses promptly. States also review an applicant`s disciplinary history and financial stability prior to allowing the investment adviser to conduct business in a given jurisdiction.

The point-of-contact sale for most people is the investment adviser representative or salesperson. Over 30 states require that investment adviser representatives be licensed -- the SEC does not.

Most states also protect investors by actively pursuing a program of unannounced, on-site examinations of small investment advisers and careful screening of promotional materials.

What You Can Do To Protect Yourself

1. Investigate the investment adviser and salesperson thoroughly. Contact your state or provincial securities agency to find out if he or she is properly licensed to provide investment advice. If the individual also is licensed as a stockbroker, background information will be available through your state securities agency from the Central Registration Depository (CRD) -- a computerized reference system operated jointly by the North American Securities Administrators Association (NASAA) and the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA). Contact information for all state and provincial securities regulators is available on the NASAA website at .

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2. Is the investment opportunity registered for sale in the state in which you live? Call your state securities agency to find out. All investment opportunities must be registered or exempt. If one being recommended to you isn’t registered or exempt, consider that a red warning flag to investigate further. Ask for and review carefully written disclosure information.

3. Always stay in charge of your money. Protect your nest egg. Once you’ve made an investment, carefully review your account statement. Make sure you know where your money is being held. Generally, you should receive account statements from the custodian of the securities as well as from your investment adviser. Confirm that all transactions are ones you’ve authorized.

4. Insist on a full explanation of investment recommendations and don’t invest in something you don’t understand. If the return on an investment sounds too good to be true, it probably is. A legitimate adviser should find out about your financial needs and goals, as well as the level of risk you are comfortable with, then suggest a “suitable investment.” Don’t allow the promise of high returns to cloud your judgment.

5. Keep notes about conversations and meetings. Con artists operate in an atmosphere of trust that persuades people there is no need to keep careful records. By keeping careful notes, you won’t have to rely upon your memory if your adviser later tells you something that does not seem right. If a lawsuit or dispute does occur, careful notes will help set the record straight.

Buyer Beware!

Whether due to a self-directed retirement plan, an inheritance, saving for a child`s education, or other reasons, today, more Americans than ever before find themselves in charge of their financial investments. Handling those investments are some of the most important decisions anyone can make. Although the vast majority of financial advisers are trustworthy, be on the look-out for those that are not. Being an investor requires education and attentiveness. Start asking questions before it`s too late.

In Washignton, the State Department of Financial Institutions (DFI) recently warned investors to get a second opinion before investing, even if with a “trusted advisor” such as an attorney, to avoid the experience of victims defrauded by Everett attorney Barry Hammer. On Friday, Oct. 31, 2008 Hammer, 62 , an Everett, Washington attorney was sentenced in U.S. District Court in Seattle to three years in prison, three years of supervised release and 250 hours of community service for Wire Fraud in connection with a fraudulent investment scheme. From 2002 to 2004, Hammer convinced a number of his law practice clients to invest with him in various pieces of real estate. Hammer misrepresented to investors how he was going to use their money and, in Ponzi scheme fashion, used some of the investors’ money to repay earlier investors. DFI’s Securities Division issued an administrative Summary Order to Cease and Desist against Hammer in 2005, ordering him to stop the offer and sale of promissory notes to state investors. Later, Securities Division staff assisted in the criminal investigation of
Hammer.

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Check Out Your Broker or Brokerage

2010-12-13T21:21:00.000-08:00

How to Check Out Your Broker or Brokerage Firm

Where or to whom do you turn if you want to check up on your present or future stockbroker? If you are about to entrust some of your funds with an individual or securities firm, it is worth your while to do a background check. It may save you both money and future aggravation.

Central Registration Depository System

The Central Registration Depository system (“CRD”) is a source that you can turn to for this kind of information. The CRD is a computerized database that holds licensing and registration information on over 600,000 stockbrokers (also called registered representatives) and over 6,000 brokerage firms throughout the country. Every state securities regulator can access the CRD database.

In most cases, a stockbroker or any other person who wants to sell securities (for example, stocks, bonds, mutual funds, etc.) must be licensed or registered to do so. Also, some states may require insurance agents who sell variable annuities or variable life policies to be licensed. Therefore, these individuals’ records will be maintained on the CRD.

The CRD will tell you about your stockbroker's past, including:

As an investor, you can request a public report of background information on any stockbroker or brokerage firm. Depending on the state jurisdiction, this report can be obtained either free of charge or for a nominal fee. In addition to employment and examination history, the CRD report will contain the following types of securities- or commodities-related disciplinary history, if applicable:

In order to obtain a CRD report; simply call your local state securities regulator. As a matter of practice, stockbrokers and brokerage firms are not advised of your request.

You can also contact FINRA at (800) 289-9999. However, FINRA does not report certain types of information that may be available through your state securities regulator.

This information is easy to obtain and the securities regulators want you to make informed decisions prior to investing your hard-earned dollars. A vast majority of the stockbrokers and brokerage firms are honest and reputable. However, like many professions, there are those individuals and firms who are not. One phone call may save you from sending your money to a bad broker or disreputable brokerage firm.

Final disciplinary actions that have been taken by federal, state, and foreign securities regulators as well as self-regulatory organizations.
Civil judgments and arbitration decisions disputes involving public customers.
Criminal convictions or indictments against registered or licensed brokerage firms and their associated persons.
Settlements of $10,000 or more among the parties to arbitrations, civil suits, and customer complaints.
Employment terminations after allegations were made involving violations of investment-related statutes or rules, fraud, theft, or failure to supervise investment-related activities.
Bankruptcies filed within the last 10 years and outstanding liens and judgments.
Pending disciplinary actions taken by industry regulators.
Pending arbitrations and civil proceedings.
Pending written complaints alleging sales practice violations and compensatory damages of $5,000 or more.

How to Request a CRD Report

Employment history for the past 10 years
Securities examination scores
Licensing or registration status
Disciplinary history

Information Available

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