tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-84517320289372636242025-11-08T15:26:34.508-05:00(Please note that this blog is no longer active. Please refer to the following: <a href="http://buy-high-sell-low.blogspot.com/"> http://buy-high-sell-low.blogspot.com </a> for new trading ideas.Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger128125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-535109555496377272008-09-21T13:48:00.010-04:002009-01-21T20:27:44.229-05:00

The stock and commodities markets obviously experienced a tremendous amount of volatility for this past week. However, what may not seem as obvious is the amount of government intervention/manipulation that went on behind the scenes.With markets in free fall this week, central banks injected an unfathomable amount of liquidity into the markets. When money is injected into circulation, it is

Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-69441061858221198232008-09-14T06:16:00.003-04:002008-09-15T17:09:53.007-04:00

The above chart is a weekly chart of the XAU gold stocks index. I have said in several previous posts that gold stocks needed to hold the support area outlined above for me to remain bullish on the sector.During this past week, it appeared that the gold bulls had capitulated, and the bears would close gold stocks well below support. However, towards the end of the week, the bulls miraculously

Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-28004602707097805752008-09-13T09:56:00.003-04:002008-09-13T10:41:14.227-04:00

Another topic I wanted to bring up was silver and the notion that there is a manipulation in the futures market. I have read and listened to many experts, such as Bill Murphy, who have always stated that the gold and silver markets are manipulated. I felt that this could be true, but at the same time also felt skeptical. However, after witnessing what has happened over the last month with regard

Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-36135942549062240462008-09-06T08:03:00.016-04:002008-09-06T08:33:24.405-04:00

The above chart is a weekly chart of GDX. Despite another round of declining prices, gold stocks are still holing this important support area. In my opinion, this level of support is key, and if it is taken out, I will have a difficult time remaining bullish on the sector.On the other hand, the Euro has broken down badly, and is no longer in a weekly uptrend:The fact that the Euro has broken

Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-70898159318224807602008-08-30T07:19:00.019-04:002008-09-02T00:29:34.040-04:00

The above chart is a monthly chart of the XAU gold and silver stocks index. This is the same chart I had posted two weeks ago. Since this is a monthly chart, the candle to the extreme right of the chart has now formed, and a new candle will begin forming on Tuesday.August's monthly candle descended to the upward sloping trend line, and decisively bounced off this level. Furthermore, the price

Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-43143180216420323752008-08-28T06:47:00.008-04:002012-07-04T15:14:04.216-04:00

The following is a quotation from the novel Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, written in 1923 by Edwin Lefevre. This quotation helped reinforce in my mind the importance trading in the direction of the primary move, and to avoid the noise of short-term fluctuations. His name was Partridge, but they nicknamed him Turkey&nbsp;behind his back, because he was so thick-chested and had a habit&

Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-13491042368693648782008-08-16T06:40:00.008-04:002008-08-16T07:28:33.307-04:00

In this post, I will attempt to analyze the severity of this week's sell off, and contrast it with the sell off we had this time last year.Much of the weakness we have seen in the gold market comes from a rapidly appreciating US. Dollar:As the above chart illustrates, the US Dollar has exploded past its 50 day and 200 day moving averages, which is short-term bullish. However, the 200 day moving

Unknownnoreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-77238044959340859412008-08-10T13:28:00.013-04:002008-08-11T20:48:58.136-04:00

For this past week, commodities corrected quite dramatically, which, I am sure, has left many commodity bulls feeling somewhat nervous. If this is the case, I hope that this post will help assuage any doubts.The first chart is that of the XAU. It is a monthly chart that goes back until 1981:In my view, the XAU is still in a very powerful bull market. This is evidenced by the fact that over the

Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-66511223395660568072008-08-06T08:50:00.005-04:002008-08-06T18:25:34.895-04:00

A few weeks ago, Stockcharts.com introduced Renko charts, and, since that time, I have really developed an appreciation for this charting style. Renko charts, like candle charts, are a Japanese charting style. Renko charts differ in that they do not factor in the passage of time, and, thus, only use price in their construction.I feel that Renko charts can be used very effectively to determine

Unknownnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-70470076735633798662008-07-31T07:41:00.004-04:002008-12-10T04:37:02.906-05:00

With the last video I posted on this site, I recommended a weekly webcast called the Financial Sense News Hour. One of the advantages of listening to this program is that one can become exposed to the ideas of many different guest speakers.Peter Schiff is a regular contributor to this internet radio show, and is where I first came across his ideologies. Peter Schiff is a stock broker, money

Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-50543774573559031332008-07-27T12:13:00.006-04:002008-12-10T04:37:03.722-05:00

In the previous post, I mentioned the importance of managing risk by hedging. I also talked about how profitable traders tend to buy strength and short sell weakness. One way of following both principles is to buy a company that is showing strong relative strength, and short sell the index.The following chart shows Gold Corp, symbol G.to, divided by an ETF that tracks the entire gold stocks

Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-39289635483340062032008-07-19T08:43:00.006-04:002008-12-10T04:37:03.922-05:00

One trait common amongst all successful traders is the ability to manage risk. Experienced traders ask not how much money a trade can potentially make, but how much money a trade could potentially lose. Put another way, not losing money is more important than making money.When I first started trading, I would usually bet all of my account on a single trade. I have learned (the hard way) that this

Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-81425462491298365832008-07-16T07:15:00.007-04:002008-07-16T10:56:44.256-04:00

I feel that when someone works hard, does research, and makes a bold forecast that eventually comes to fruition several years later, that person should be given credit. Along with Richard Heinberg, who I mentioned last time, Matt Simmons is one such person.Matt Simmons, who spent his entire career working with the oil industry, is author of Twilight in the Desert. Simmons also appears frequently

Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-15377235008604628902008-07-13T14:16:00.008-04:002008-12-10T04:37:04.726-05:00

Over the past year on this site, I have attempted to use technical analysis and intermarket analysis to help better understand the gold market. During this time I think I have made some fairly decent calls, but have also made mistakes along the way. One of the advantages of maintaining this blog is that I can go back and read old posts and see exactly what I was thinking. I can analyze what

Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-25887286207789013072008-07-09T10:54:00.009-04:002008-12-10T04:37:05.399-05:00

The chart below shows a chart of an ETF that follows the price of crude oil, which has the ticker USO, on the top panel, and a chart breaking down oils COT structure on the bottom panel: I explained the way I interpret this type of chart in this post. In a nutshell, you want to be buying when the commercials have a small short position, and you want to be selling when the large speculators are

Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-34403051735918994792008-07-09T09:22:00.000-04:002008-07-11T09:08:57.245-04:00

Richard Heinberg is the author of The Party's Over, Power Down, and Peak Everything. I highly recommend all three books, but I would recommend reading the author's first book to start, as it goes over the theory of peak oil on a general level, whereas his other books are more specific and philosophical in nature.Personally, reading these books awakened me to a whole new way of thinking, and had

Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-26912524667606785992008-07-06T09:27:00.005-04:002008-12-10T04:37:05.598-05:00

As I have mentioned before on this site, Horizon ETFs are a type of investment that allow traders to go long or short a particular market with 200% daily exposure. For example, this organization has two ETFs that track natural gas:HNU-which stands for Horizon Natural gas UpHND-which stands for Horizon Natural gas DownThis means that if in a given day, the price of natural gas rises by, say, 2%,

Unknownnoreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-7345749186973793752008-06-29T12:12:00.010-04:002008-12-10T04:37:06.122-05:00

Above is a weekly chart showing GDX, the gold stocks ETF. What I wanted to point out is that gold stocks experienced a very nice bounce off a major area of support. I now feel that the short term trend for gold stocks has moved from neutral to up, so I decided to go long this sector, and will remain long until the short term trend changes.The next chart is a weekly chart of silver, which also

Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-14558352855259849872008-06-19T20:29:00.009-04:002008-12-10T04:37:06.575-05:00

Because the price of gold seems to be going through what is known as the summer doldrums, which is basically a period where there is no trend and a time where it can be more difficult to make profitable trades, I have decided to focus this post on another topic for the meantime.What I will try to illustrate here is the effects of excessive money printing and inflation on real stock market returns

Unknownnoreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-23362393042781998212008-06-15T08:10:00.006-04:002008-12-10T04:37:07.273-05:00

The above chart is a daily chart of the US Dollar Index. As you can see, the Dollar recently broke out of a bullish triangle formation and is now trending up. This fact has put downward pressure on both gold and silver, and I think there is a good chance that this will continue happening for at least the short term.One commodity that is catching my eye, and does not seem to have been affected by

Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-21532788475115116632008-06-07T10:46:00.008-04:002008-12-10T04:37:07.900-05:00

If yesterday's market activity could not compel me to write for this blog, then I don't think anything would. Besides the obvious headlines you have probably already read regarding Crude Oil and the Dow Jones, there are many other interesting developments that I feel are going on behind the scenes that are just as significant.In the previous post that I wrote, I mentioned that the VIX was

Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-85050887144563341762008-05-24T15:36:00.010-04:002008-12-10T04:37:08.916-05:00

I thought it would be a good idea to a have a mid-vacation update. Here are five charts that I found interesting this week:1)2)3)4)5)Please click on the charts in order to read the annotations. Thanks for looking, and have a profitable week.

Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-14721906947464899092008-05-04T12:24:00.008-04:002008-12-10T04:37:09.625-05:00

For this past week, the price of gold lost about $32.00 an ounce, and gold stocks, as measured by the XAU lost another 4% for the week. When gold goes through these normal corrections, I usually refer to the monthly charts, so that I do not lose sight of the larger picture. The chart below is monthly chart of the XAU:The above chart goes back until 1985, and each candle represents one month of

Unknownnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-71315448834509868042008-04-27T10:45:00.012-04:002008-12-10T04:37:10.425-05:00

Gold dropped about $26.00 dollars an ounce this week, and gold stocks fared even worse, with the XAU losing 6.6% for the week. In the previous post I wrote on Tuesday, I said that an explosive move was likely due. Hopefully, from what I have been writing recently, you were able deduce which way I thought that move would be.The following chart is a daily chart of the HUI index. I posted this same

Unknownnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8451732028937263624.post-32055638188651322952008-04-22T09:11:00.005-04:002008-12-10T04:37:10.563-05:00

The following chart shows a gold index called the Dow Jones United States Precious Metals index, (DJUSPM). The index has a different gold stocks composition than the HUI or XAU Indices, and, as such, can sometimes give you a different perspective.The main point in the above chart is that this index continues to trade sideways, within a very narrow band. As this is occurring, the bollinger bands

Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1