Hi everyone and apologies for the delay in new posts recently but I’ve been away on leave and busy working on some other projects. I thought I’d continue the possible runners for Grand National 2010 thread with the very interesting, Black Apalachi.

Three times a runner over the Aintree fences he has failed to complete on two occasions in the 2008 and 2009 Grand Nationals but recorded an emphatic win in the 2008 Becher Chase in between those two failures to negotiate the Aintree fences.

Over enthusiasm was blamed for his fall at the second fence in 2008 but he was going really well when unseating his rider at Bechers when in the lead in 2009. Would he have maintained his position after being in the lead for most of the race or would he have tired in the later stages of the race?
Bookmakers are obviously fearful of the horses chances for 2010 and he is joint-favourite at 25/1 with a number of firms including Stan James

It’s very difficult to be authoritative about how the race would have unfolded if Black Apalachi had stayed on his feet in 2009 but as he will only be aged eleven come the 2010 race and unlikely to be campaigned in a way that will increase his handicap mark he must have a very sound chance of being a strong challenger next April.

What do you think of Black Apalachi’s chances at Aintree? Would he have won in 2009 with a clear round? Can you be positive about the horse for 2010 if he already has two incompletions at Aintree? Give us your thoughts on Black Apalachi on this page.

(If the horse you want to discuss does not have a thread as yet please leave me a note and I will add as soon as I can - although with holidays etc this may take longer than normal)

Thank you

Cynics may argue that conditions suited him the best and that his opponents underperformed but the Welsh National winner is proving very peogressive and could be considered a real live Cheltenham Gold Cup candidate if there was ever really soft ground at the Festival.

But what of the Grand National? Rated 163 BEFORE the Punchestown race he must surely go up to 170 or even higher after that performance and a guarantee of the maximum top weight in the National (if he were to run) and the prospect of giving lumps of weight to decent horses.

I personally can’t see him running in the National due to a combination of the likely weight and that he his highly unlikely to have his ground. Also, I would think connections will find it hard to resist going for the Gold Cup and that would make Aintree even less likely.

Do you agree or do you think that Notre Pere will run and would be up to giving the weight away?

Notre Pere is, at the time of writing, 25/1 with Stan James.

*NB The profiles seem to be getting a fair bit of interest so I will be putting more up over the next few weeks - let me know if there is a particular horse that you have strong views on and you would like to see a thread for.

I’ll start with the Grand National winner and the Irish Grand National winner to see how it goes and add others in if it seems like people are using the pages. I am looking into an earlier suggestion to see if it would be possible to link to the horse previews on GNG - I will get back to you on that.

For now, please add all your Mon Mome views etc to this page. I will come back in the near future and add some general info about the horse - races won etc and a little bit of my view.

Please let me know your general view on this as a idea to take forward.

Thanks

To those of a certain age it will probably always be “The Whitbread” as the race was run under that banner from its inception in 1957 until 2001, the longest running sponsorship in the sport.

There have been some top class winners of the Sandown race over the years including Arkle, Mill House, The Dikler and Desert Orchid.

This race also provided one of the best finishes ever seen in a National Hunt race when in 1984 Special Cargo was victorious in a heart-pumping, two short head victory from two-time winner Diamond Edge and Lettoch.

The 2009 version promises to be another thriller with a host of good horses entered at this stage including Grand National fourth State Of Play, Irish Grand National runner-up Church Island and Topham Chase runner-up Oodachee.

Current favourite is the Paul Nicholls’ trained Hoo Loo Baloo who is a best priced 7/1 with Stan James.

Check back later in the week when we will be looking at some more of the prices on offer but start giving us your idea of the winner of this wonderful old race.

The winner of the competition was Peewakio who did a great job in selecting Comply Or Die, Big Fella Thanks, Butlers Cabin and Southern Vic and in doing so got all his four selections in the top ten.

We had a tie for third place with four entries scoring 180 points. Three of those entries couldn’t be split as they were all the same amount away from the correct distance so we are going to award £5 to each of the three people who we could not split for third place. Commiserations to The Shark who just missed out by half a length on making it a four way split!

So the full details of the winners, scores and prizes is as follows:

1st: Peewakio 270 Points £15
2nd: dragonman 200 Points £10
Tied 3rd: SOOTYDOGGOLF 180 Points £5
Tied 3rd: Brody 180 Points £5
Tied 3rd : Johnny Valentine: 180 points £5

Could all the winners e-mail their usernames from Grand National Guide and their usernames from OLBG to:

community@invendium.co.uk

Thanks a lot

The Scottish National can prove to be a useful guide to winners at Aintree with Comply Or Die, Earth Summit and Little Polveir all previous runners in the Scottish National (although not necessarily the year before winning at Aintree). The fact that both races are usually run on good ground gives a really clear indication of the type of horse that will stay extreme distances on that type of underfoot conditions.

Here are the current top fancies and their best odds at time of writing:

Chief Dan George 7/1 Bet365 Click here for £100 of free bets Bet365

Tricky Trickster 8/1 Coral. Click here for £20 free bet Coral.

Nine De Sivola 9/1 Boylesports Click here for £200 of free bets Boylesports

West End Rocker 12/1 VCBet Click here for £50 free bet VCBet

Merigo 12/1 Paddy Power Click here for Bet £10 Get £20 Free Paddy Power

Russian Trigger 12/1 Stan James. Click here for £25 free bet Stan James.

Recent winners at Fairyhouse Butlers Cabin and Hear The Echo have gone on to be well supported at Aintree and Bobbyjo and Numbersixvalverde have managed to win both races.

Even though Fairyhouse is a right handed track the test of stamina and the extremely testing fences ensure that it compares favourably with any of the other races seen as a “prep” race for future Aintree winners.

This year the race at Fairyhouse in on Monday 13th April and currently there are 73 runners engaged with bookmakers showing a variety of horses at the top of a very open market. A number of the currently fancied runners include: Witchita Lineman, Emma Jane, Royal County Star and Welsh National hero Notre Pere.

By the sounds of things you are keen just to get a thread up and running on this race so I’ll leave it there for the time being.

Good luck.

Apologies for the loss of the blog for a while there yesterday - we had a few technical problems and it was just not possible to keep the blog online throughout a hugely busy time for this site.

Also, it may take me till tomorrow afternoon to catch up and announce the winner of the Grand National Tipster competition - I hope you will bear with me.

Next, could we start using this thread as the final analysis point for the 2009 Grand National. I let the last post carry on longer than I should have (again!) really because of the strength of the postings but if we could all move on to here now that would be most appreciated. So, please, let us all know how you felt about GN 2009 on this thread.

Lastly, keep an eye out for Scottish and Irish Grand National threads starting up in the next few days as well as a thread for the 2010 Grand National. I hope you will all stay with us and tell all your friends next year so we continue to make this the biggest and best Grand National blog on the Internet. We really appreicate all your input - thanks very much and I hope you managed to show a profit in 2009.

Admin (Darren)