Denman’s presence would undoubtedly have a great effect on the traditional view of this race and what we might look for in the merits of a prospective winner. We could be faced with the prospect of a number of horses running from some way out of the handicap and, personally, I tend to find races like this unsatisfactory as a betting medium. A recent example being the Scottish National won by Iris De Balme at 66/1 from 26lbs out of the handicap.

Nevertheless, as a starting point for discussion here are some basic trends which you may want to expand upon in an attempt for us all to find the winner of the Hennessy:

No winner in the last ten years has been older than eight (nine winners six or seven)

Eight of the last ten winners were second season chasers

Applying all of the above will almost certainly leave a very short list to work from with the likes of What A Friend, Killyglen and Russian Trigger to consider.

The big novice chase at the Aintree Festival has been quite a useful guide to the Hennessy and as that race was won by Killyglen last season he looks to have quite a lot going for him. Howard Johnson’s gelding was beaten on his reappearance recently but big things are expected of his victor that day, Knockara Beau, and as Killyglen was conceding 16lb and racing over just two and half miles we should, perhaps, not be too surprised by the defeat. Killyglen looks the best bet of the second season chasers and hopefully his yard will be in better form by the time of the Newbury meeting.

Taking a wider view, lots of horses appeal but a couple I like are Nenuphar Collonges and Treacle.

Nenuphar Collonges looked like he needed the run (like many Alan King horses this year) recently at Wincanton and at just three pounds higher than his near miss at the Cheltenham Festival he definitely has a big handicap in him if he can keep his jumping together.

Irish challenger Treacle was, I thought, more impressive than the neck winning distance would suggest when winning the Munster National and Tom Taaffe can win another big handicap with this horse but may well decide to stay in Ireland to try and achieve that. Take note if he gets into the race and does make the journey to England. He looks the type of horse that could end up at Aintree in the Grand National itself.

Who do you fancy for the Hennessy and could they possibly go on and win the Grand National 2010?

Check out the latest Grand National Odds here Grand National Odds

We’ve had some mentions on the main thread concerning My Will, Notre Pere and Niche Market who all make their seasonal debuts today.

My Will and Notre Pere line up at Down Royal in the JNWine.Com Champion Chase and they are joined by some other potential Grand National horses in Casey Jones and War Of Attrition. This looks a race for the video as this field looks sure to be involved in plenty of big races in the forthcoming season.
I just wonder if this might be a good time to oppose Notre Pere with the stable without a winner since April. This may not be as significant as it might appear at first glance as the Dreaper stable does not have a lot of runners but as Notre Pere has yet to win on a seasonal reappearance perhaps he should be avoided at a short price today.
My Will tends to run well when fresh but with just one win to his name since 2005 I’d always be keen to take him on.
The Listener could be dangerous but looked very out of sorts last year and backing him here would require a huge amount of trust that he could recover his old form.
In the circumstances, Casey Jones looks the best alternative. The Noel Meade trained eight-year-old has a fitness advantage after his good recent win at Punchestown and looks a stayer with a good future.

The Badger Ales Trophy at Wincanton sees the return of Irish National hero Niche Market, along with a number of other interesting runners such as Carruthers, The Tother One , Cornish Sett, Golden Flight and Beat The Boys. It would be no surprise to see some of these horses line up at Aintree next year.

Don’t forget we have designated pages for some of the potential Grand National runners including My Will and Niche Market so if want to discuss those horses at length please have a look at their individual pages.

Notre Pere

Niche Market

So, as the National Hunt season is starting to move into gear it seems a good time to open up a new main thread for the Grand National.

With the papers and the internet full of stable tours and horses to follow, we will begin to get more information regarding the targets of the likely protagonists for the Grand National 2010. If we could use this thread to highlight any horses that we have seen that have had their target confirmed as the Grand National then this gives a good starting point for those wishing to get going with an ante post portfolio for the big race at Aintree.

Please also keep us all informed of any Grand National Tips or ‘dark horses’ you may be thinking of or any news and views you may have come across that may help the other readers of our Grand National Blog.

The first three victories in 2008 were recorded under the care of David Wintle but the horse was transferred to Nigel Twiston-Davies for the 08/09 season and the Gloucestershire trainer managed to squeeze a further four victories from the son of Jurado and wasn’t afraid to travel to do so – recording victories at Kelso, Fontwell, Wincanton and finally that famous win at Ayr.

The victory in the Scottish National was the third win in the race for the yard after the wins in 1992 for Captain Dibble and 1994 for Earth Summit who famously went on to win at Aintree in 1998. The question for readers of our forum is can Hello Bud match his famous stablemate and go on and do the same double? Obviously given Hello Bud’s age (11 rising 12) he doesn’t have four years like Earth Summit to work up to it and if he is going to win the Grand National 2010 would look to be his best chance. He obviously has stamina in abundance and will probably be the first horse to be going into the race for some time with 3 wins at around 4 miles (31f at Hereford, 32f at Hexham and 33f at Ayr)

I did note that the last two of Hello Bud’s wins were achieved with the aid of a tongue tie and whilst that obviously helped any slight concerns the stable had about his breathing I always wonder if problems in that area have a tendency to get worse? It could be that Twiston-Davies managed to farm a rich vein of form from this horse and he may struggle to reproduce that form now that he finds himself so much further up the handicap?

What do our readers think? Is Hello Bud a horse you will be watching closely for the 2010 Grand National or do you think the 08/09 season was the pinnacle of his achievements?

Cynics may argue that conditions suited him the best and that his opponents underperformed but the Welsh National winner is proving very peogressive and could be considered a real live Cheltenham Gold Cup candidate if there was ever really soft ground at the Festival.

But what of the Grand National? Rated 163 BEFORE the Punchestown race he must surely go up to 170 or even higher after that performance and a guarantee of the maximum top weight in the National (if he were to run) and the prospect of giving lumps of weight to decent horses.

I personally can’t see him running in the National due to a combination of the likely weight and that he his highly unlikely to have his ground. Also, I would think connections will find it hard to resist going for the Gold Cup and that would make Aintree even less likely.

Do you agree or do you think that Notre Pere will run and would be up to giving the weight away?

Notre Pere is, at the time of writing, 25/1 with Stan James.

*NB The profiles seem to be getting a fair bit of interest so I will be putting more up over the next few weeks - let me know if there is a particular horse that you have strong views on and you would like to see a thread for.

I will also add the various forfeit/closing dates for the Grand National itself and then keep bouncing this article up the menu so it stays fresh and in the five articles currently on view.

So, a few ideas of races we might want on the list from me;

Welsh National
Hennessy
Cheltenham Gold Cup
Irish National
Midlands National
Becher Chase
Scottish National
Blue Square Gold Cup (Haydock)
Topham

We can obviously make this list very extensive and include races such as the Kerry National, Paddy Power at Leopardstown, Summer National etc but I will take suggestions as to what people think the best races to include are.

Once we have the definitive list I will redesign this page so we have the races/forfeit stages and relevant dates for the Grand National 2010.

Let us know your ideas.

(If the horse you want to discuss does not have a thread as yet please leave me a note and I will add as soon as I can - although with holidays etc this may take longer than normal)

Thank you

Stan James. are 11/4 that there is an Irish Trained Winner

Blue Square.are 7/1 that Paul Nicholls trains the winner

Tote.are 10/1 that Tony McCoy rides the winner

Stan James. are 7/4 that the winner carries more then 11 stone

I think the last offer from Stan James. should generate some comments given the amount the 11 stone mark was discussed last year. I wonder if we could convince them to offer a price that the Grand National winner carries UNDER 11 stone?

Prior to the 2009 Grand National Cerium’s best form has been at up to 2m 3f and his efforts at three miles and above gave little indication that he could potentially get close to finishing placed in a Grand National. Does this performance then entitle any horse that qualifies to run whatever their current form?

Cerium’s owners regularly come under fire for running horses with little chance in top class races but is that their right or should there be some additional check in place to make sure that the likes of other horses they have run such as Arteea and Contraband had won over, say, at least as far as 2miles 6 furlongs or even 3 miles?

I think most of our contributors would agree that horses without at least placed form at three miles or above have little chance of winning a Grand National these days so even horses such as Fondmort and Thisthatandtother etc were really just making up the numbers.

As it becomes harder and harder to qualify a Grand National runner should the entry requirements be tightened up so all the competitors have a realistic chance of winning the race?

Let us know what you think about this general issue and if you think Cerium can improve still further and be involved in the finish of the Grand National 2010.