Greg Sanders

Can more resources solve Afghanistan's problems?

2009-12-08T23:32:09-05:00

After attending an off the record briefing, not with an administration official, I heard a way of thinking on Afghanistan that I believe illuminates the new American approach to Afghanistan. To be clear, I have the benefit of others ideas here, but am speaking for myself, credit errors to me and insight to others.

Between the increases earlier this year and the planned 30,000 troop escalation, the Obama administration has dramatically increased the resources going to Afghanistan while making comparatively small adjustments in policy. The approach to rural Afghanistan seems to be shifting from anti-drug efforts to rebuilding the agricultural sector. At the same time, there's talk of working around President Karzai rather than continuing the past policy of flowing all funds through him. Finally while counterinsurgency thinking was not mentioned by name during the speech is being endorsed through population-centric efforts and increasing restraint when it comes to possible civilian casualties.

These changes sound more incremental than revolutionary and no harsh trade-offs were made explicitly. This doesn't mean that more is not going on behind the scenes, but it does seem consistent with the critique of recent Afghan policy that the main problem is that the war was dramatically under resourced. This is certainly accurate, relative to Iraq, when it comes to contract spending and a range of other metrics. On the other hand, critics will note that we are spending more per year than Afghanistan's total GDP, which bespeaks both Afghanistan's remoteness and the expense of military measures in treasure, let alone blood.

So what happens if this view is wrong? If a lack of resources wasn't the main problem or equally likely more resources could well have stabilized the country in the early calm period but are no longer enough. That's where the withdrawal date could come in. There are many caveats to it and strictly speaking we're just supposed to begin the transition to Afghan authority. Even so, I suspect the date will be compelling for our allies and if the situation does not improve may have substantial political support domestically from the President's own party. In essence setting the date puts Afghanistan in the category of a limited war. If the occupation proves unworkable we can dramatically reduce our role even if that means failing to meet key objectives. Looked at another way, there is a level of resources we aren't willing to deploy to "win," the draft is not on the table and the main nation the President is interested in nation building is our own.

It's important to remember that we will see a lag in any results from implementing this new resource level. Sending more people to the country and getting them in action takes time. That said, we can now begin to judge the results of the first troop hike and test the hypothesis that implementation and not strategy is the main problem we face that can be directly controlled from the U.S. end (unlike local corruption).

Next America Repost: Defense-Industry Haikus

2009-12-08T00:24:11-05:00

In a silly experiment, with help from Matt Zlatnik, I present the following seven haikus inspired by defense-related newsletters. There’s a bit of a contest involved with these with a prize of a Lockheed Martin toiletries kit, see the Next America page for details.

Private security
Cost six billion through ‘09
More in subcontracts

Big 3Q spend bump
The supplement arrived late
Not conspiracy

Cost-plus contracting
Now buys many more services
McCain not pleased

Six hundred million
Meant for small businesses
Went to the big boys

Europe does research
But Americans sell stuff
Thank you big budget!

Big helicopter
Spend lots on fancy add-ons
Save the President!

Large trade surpluses
Show the U.S. still produces
When it comes to arms

Again, go here for the source newsletters.

This entry also available at CSIS’s Next America Blog.

Watched and enjoyed Pentagon Wars

2009-12-07T01:23:58-05:00

Recommended my friend Calc, I’m rather surprised I haven’t seen it before. It’s quite enjoyable and I’m highly sympathetic, although generally speaking it doesn’t seem to present the strongest argument for the defense or show the way that actors other than generals screw up the acquisition process.

The two counter-arguments I’d have liked to have seen addressed were to compare the Bradley to the prior armored personnel carrier and the larger trade-offs in the advantages of a light vehicle and survivability[/heavy armor (they do raise the point that the original lower profile may have raised survivability without adding armor]. Guess I’ll have to read the book and see if it’s addressed there.

Avatar season 2 special features

2009-12-06T00:57:00-05:00

They were fairly good. There was a bit on the martial arts used for the bending choreography. This was actually covered some in the special features of the first season but they add a bit to it. There were also three cute super-deformed cartoons; the best was shipping school which put all the characters in a school setting and screw with the shippers. Good times.

Third feature was an “animated graphic novel.” The animation was just transitions between stills but I’ll take that over manual page flipping No voice acting but does have some back-story for the past four Avatars.

Finally there was an interview with M. Night Shyamalan about the live-action film. It doesn’t address the casting controversy, namely that despite the Asian martial arts and cultural touchstones they went Caucasians for the heroes and Asians for the baddies (although not all the supporting Fire nation characters are necessarily villains or extras). Apparently there’s an intention to do three films, season 2 does have an additional hero so that will be a chance to partially remedy things. Here’s hoping they take it. For now, I’ve still got an attitude of deep skepticism towards the film.

Good news: There may be a Mirrors Edge 2; Bad news: They havent figured out the strengths of the original.

2009-12-05T00:34:07-05:00

Stephen Totilo has an interview with the head of EA, John Riccitiello, who sounds some good notes on innovation and who is supporting another Mirror’s Edge. Key quotes:

I think Mirror's Edge was a fascinatingly original world.Fascinatingly original art direction. Music and sound design was great. I think the gameplay mechanic was a blast, but was intermittent and the levels didn't work. You found yourself scratching at walls at times, looking for what to do. Sometimes you had a roll going, downhill, slide, jump, slide, jump and then you just got stopped. It sort of got in the way of the fun.

It was like we couldn't quite decide if we were building Portal or a runner. And I don't think the consumer was ready to switch it up quite that way…

You could say: This thing needs to be more traditional. It's first-person game. There's a lot of successful FPS products out there that do really well. We could move in that direction.

Or [you could say]: This was never about guns. It was about its stark originality. Maybe we can back away from some of those [older] things… and emphasize the smooth play and puzzles and move it toward, if you will, a Portal.

Neither really makes sense to me. Going in the FPS direction is obviously a terrible idea, FPS’s with more acrobatic movement may be worthwhile, but that entirely defeats the point of the original. Perhaps tighten up the gun mechanics a bit, I never used them, or better yet de-emphasize combat some. Slow stealth doesn’t make sense, but taking crazier routes to avoid people works. Going for Portal is nominally more laudable, but Mirro'r’s Edge really isn’t a mechanic based puzzler either. That gets to the wall scratching phenomenon.

I think Iroquis Pliskin, of VersusCluCluLand gets it right, the key is momentum (I found that blog through Brainy Gamer podcasts, for the record. I was more of a fan of the game although based on some quick googling I just seemed to have reviewed the demo, but I think the execs should listen to Pliskin, encourage the player to go fast, be more forgiving, and avoid other things that slow down the gameplay. The commenters over at Kotaku seem to have it by and large right as well.

I was also glad to hear the mentions of open world gaming by other people. I think sticking with linear could be okay, but I’d much prefer more runs through some of the same areas with escalating threat levels and less of some of the inside levels. I actually rather liked the subway, mall, and much of the last level, and other beautiful interiors. I did not like navigating sewers, crawlspaces, and the such as they’re overdone and not really well suited to free running. I got bored of some of the roofs after a while for the same reason. If going for either linear or open world level reputation maybe look at racing games, from what I’ve heard of Burnout: Paradise it has a fair number of potentially relevant ideas.

I also wonder if Jet Grind Radio, which I haven’t played but rather enjoyed watching a friend play, would have any helpful ideas. That game was similar in its feeling about authority, but since it was graffiti oriented it allowed for a wider range of mission objectives. That said, that game may have to wait until Beyond Good and Evil 2 comes out.

Could use podcast recommendations

2009-12-03T23:52:04-05:00

One of the many perks of my new phone is that it can directly download podcasts and can play them at an appreciable volume when I’m in a situation where headphones aren’t ideal.

I’ve been working my way through my backlog of the Brainy Gamer podcast and should be caught up within a week or so. I’m also presently caught up on the DnD podcast and only tend to listen to about two thirds of those anyways since I’m not particularly into the novels. I’m considering picking up the Out of the Game podcast, although from when I’ve sampled that I tend to want less banter and more N’Gai Croal.

Professionally, it’s about time I subscribed to the CSIS podcast at iTunes university, so I’ve just done that on my phone.

So, readers, any that you’d like to plug on the cultural or profession side?

Celebrating same-sex marriage victory in DC

2009-12-02T23:20:13-05:00

While the news out of New York state is bad, the 11-2 vote for same-sex is quite gratifying. I rather liked Ta-Nehisi Coates coverage on why the political leadership is more liberal than the population:

Part of this, I'd argue, comes from working, in close proximity, with people, of all stripes, who are concerned with equality. You start out thinking only about yourself--but you end up having to think about women of all colors, gays of all colors, poor and working people of all colors. Maybe I'm just projecting here, I don't know. Modern liberalism has taken its share of hits (many of them deserved) for trafficking in identity politics. But the flip-side is that you become better informed about the politics of other identities. Again this is true of people in "leadership" positions, not of the "rank and file."

That makes sense to me. Now I’m hoping that some of that will carry over to Maryland’s Democratic leadership. Montgomery County would totally pass such a law, but the entire state is a tougher question. I just hope we’re closer now.

Obamas balanced speech and the importance of an announced date for starting withdrawal

2009-12-01T23:41:57-05:00

I missed the very start, I’ll have to catch the video tomorrow. What I did catch did address a good number of my concerns, but didn’t present anything that seemed decisive on the strategic front. Mark me as assauged but not convinced.

The most important addition to what was known before today is the withdrawal date. Yes, as Douthat says, enemies now know how long they need to hold out. On the other hand, those that want us to leave but otherwise aren’t our enemies can now feel more confidence in reconciliation. The Taliban is not a massive army, I think it’s distinctly possible that the latter group is much larger than the former.

More the point, the patience of the American people is not unlimited and the patience of our allies is largely exhausted. Douthat’s suggestion an internal withdrawal date, obviously can’t be shared with the public and even in backrooms would not be credible to either allies or congressional leaders. Time will tell if I’m right on the allies and we get more troops in the interim.

In the likely event that we do not achieve a clear cut victory, a firm withdrawal date allows for an end to the occupation on terms we dictate and with the chance for political support. This allows for a sustainable post-occupation engagement with Afghanistan. Given the strong temptation of escalation, demonstrated here once again, skeptics will be far more open to continued support if we’ve demonstrates we have the will power to walk away.

How will we pay for the next Afghanistan policy?

2009-11-30T00:37:46-05:00

President Obama’s speech on a new strategy for Afghanistan and what resources will be provided to support it is coming this week. Congress, whose power over war comes through the power of the purse will have to decide whether to provide supplemental support to cover any increases beyond what’s already budgeted. On the whole, Congress often involves itself with acquisition decisions but tends to be more reticent in dictating war spending. However, there’s presently a rather new idea raised by Rep. Obey being debated when it comes to budgeting the war: raise funds to cover expenses.

Estimating the cost of an escalation would be difficult. Cristi Parsons and Julian E. Barnes have an article in the L.A. Times that covers the range of opinions (via Matthew Yglesias and Spencer Ackerman). Standard estimates run between $500 thousand and $1 million per troop, with the specifics obviously dependent on what the troops are doing what’s being included in the calculations. A memo by the Pentagon Comptroller “said the yearly cost of a 40,000-troop increase would be $30 billion to $35 billion -- at least $750,000 a person. An increase of 20,000 would cost $20 billion to $25 billion annually, it said -- a per-soldier cost equal to or greater than the [million dollar per soldier] White House estimate.”

Key House Democrats, including three committee chairs and the chair of the party caucus are supporting a graduated surtax to pay for war in Afghanistan according to David Rogers of Politico (via Yglesias). It isn’t yet clear how Speaker Pelosi feels about this approach and I haven’t read anything describing similarly united heavy hitters in the Senate. Also, the tax wouldn’t kick in until 2011 and could be delayed another year if the President deemed the economy still in weak shape. Nonetheless, the tax would be broad based and include the middle class, with the exception of those who served or lost an immediate relative in the war.

Will it pass? I don’t know, Ackerman argues that Congress is interested in exercising more control and Yglesias notes that if a large portion of Democrats obviously support the tax than Republicans will be in position to demand their own chance to influence war policy. In either case, the consequences may prove important not just for Afghanistan but for future U.S. military engagements.

Updates: Persona 4 and exercise gaming

2009-11-29T00:14:39-05:00

I’ve finally gotten a bit of free time and so have been playing more Persona 4. I still really love that game, despite, or perhaps because, it manages to psych me out with some of the social choices and various quizzes. Most of the answers could be easily googled, but I’m going with just the knowledge I have on hand and I’ve had an embarrassing wrong streak. All the more so since I’m normally good at tests. In some ways it gets the high school vibe down cold, it’s a lot more fun, but it still feels easy to screw up and embarrass yourself.

I hope I didn’t deny myself a social connection by being a jerk to someone because I was confused about whose younger brother he was. If I did, such is life, but it’s still embarrassing. I’m actually a bit reminded of the first No One Lives Forever which rewarded you for taking the professional dialogue choice and not the one that just made you sound cool.

I’ve been playing in combination with Wii Fit Plus. While the free step mode doesn’t net that many calories, free running actually seems to have a similar burn rate as does EA Active Life. We just picked up the add-on for Active Life, the creatively named More Exercises. I’m not going to make the transition just yet, because the 30 day challenge isn’t offered in the sequel, instead it’s got a six week thing. That’s fine, but after running into some initial trouble, my pride is on the line on getting through the challenge this time. That said, I’m not that proud, I’m entirely willing to change the clock so that I don’t get burned get bumped to the next day for finishing at 12:05 AM.

Anyways, good weekend on the whole. We’ve been working our way through Avatar Season 2 and have loved it. The story gets steadily more into mini-arcs as time goes by while still retaining an episodic charm. The only downside is that there’s only three seasons so we’re now more than half way through.