Grinders Warehouse

Busy Tuesday

2011-08-16T08:08:00.001-05:00

It's been a busy week. It's Art Fair week which means I run around getting everything in order. I don't think people realize how many little things need to be prepared for an art fair. It's like setting up a small store from scratch every few weeks. From matting prints, framing, cleaning glass, figuring out exactly what will go on walls, figuring out the set-up as every location is different, ordering prints putting hardware on canvas packing, book work and so forth.

The Agora Art Fair in Fitchburg is a big deal with newspaper articles, TV ad's and what not. THEN! THEN! I had to write a resume and cover letter for my old job with the State as they want me to come back and work one day a week, plus I still have images of the images of Classic boats I'm going through and a Car Show I have not looked at yet AND Lake Mills images AND Fox Lake which I have not had time to get to yet.

AND AND I have to mow the lawn today and get ready for 3 days in Door County to make sure the gallery up there is stocked AND make sure teh gallery in Lake Mills is good to go. SHEESH - so much for taking it easy!

Before I forget - Public Enemies Celebration will happen the August 27th in Columbus. You know, I think Michelle and I have benefited the most out of this whole movie thing. I know I have and Michelle got a big boost in her photography business.

Make sure you check out my news website RodMelotte.com

Of course what do I do? I get a huge book to read in my "spare" time. George R.R. Martins "A Game of Thrones: A Song of Ice and Fire: Book One"; On amazon 80% of the 2,043 reviews give it 4 and 5 stars. A couple in the Home Brew club LOVE the show series on HBO and I looked up the book and wow - everybody says it's a classic.

One review said this - You will LOVE this book if:

YOU ARE TIRED OF FORMULAIC FANTASY
YOU ARE TIRED OF ALL THE HEROES STAYING ALIVE EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE UNDER CONSTANT DANGER
YOU ARE A MEDIEVAL HISTORY BUFF
YOU LOVE SERIOUS INTRIGUE WITHOUT STUPID OPPONENTS
YOU ARE INTERESTED IN BIASED OPINIONS AND DIFFERENT TRUTHS
LEGENDS
WORDPLAY
LOTS OF CONFLICT
MULTILAYERED PLOTTING; SUB PLOTS GALORE
SUPERLATIVE VARIED CHARACTERS
REALISTIC MEDIEVAL DIALOGUE: not to the point that we can't understand it but well done.
HEAPS OF SYMOBLISM AND PROPHECY
EXCELLENT MYSTERIES
RICHLY TEXTURED FEMALE CHARACTERS
LOW MAGIC WORLD
SWEARING, SEX

That last one were the kicker for me!!

I've read the 1st chapter AND the Prologue which I never read first. I always save the prologue for when I need a break in the plot. I tell ya - I'm hooked already. The one thing I was worried about was the dialogue - I picked up a sailing book with pirates and so forth and even though I knew all the words . . . I could not really understand what they were saying. I thought maybe I was having stroke or something. Or like when I tried to watch "A Midsummers Night Dream" the movie with Kevin Kline and Michelle Pfeiffer. After 15 minutes I had not actually understood one thing. The words were there but I not understand . . . I mean "Since lion vile hath here deflowered my dear." WHAT? WHAT?

ANYWAY - the dialogue is perfect. Just enough medievalness.

One thing I read though is that the Kindle version - 100% SUCKS!!! No one likes the editing for Kindle - I thought Kindle was verbatim???? Why would they have to edit for Kindle?
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WOW - how about those Brewers - last night had to be the best defensive game I have EVER seen one team accomplish! A triple play, four double plays and an out at home!!

In the last 20 games:

Fielder is hitting .403 with a .683 SLG (he will be a Brewer next year - don't worry)
Braun .364
Betencorp (who ALWAYS is a 2md half hitter) .338

Hart .329
Kotsey .318
Lucroy .305
McGehee .297
As a team they are hitting .293 with a .444 slugging

BUT WAIT Pitchers in the last 20 games have a 2.23 ERA - the bullpen in their last 47.3 innings have a 0.60 ERA. WOW!!!

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Thursday I do the whole play 18 holes of golf at 7:30 in the morning and then Brewer game in the afternoon with Adubua, Balderdash, and Network so that will be a uber fun day. I hope I golf better then last year when I totally sucked. I'll walk the course this year. When I cart-it I always do worse as I don't have a chance to dwell on my last bad shot and make corrections.

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Michele Bachmann - is it just me or does she look like some crazed person about to kill a puppy or something. Of all the photos Newsweek picked that one?

Elwood as two sisters, one very liberal and one very very VERY conservative Tea Partyish. The conservative one said that FOX is way to liberal for her tastes. Elwood said WHAT?? FOX is to far leaning LEFT? Yes she said. So he says, if FOX is leaning LEFT who has the right side of the media. She say that is the problem with America, ALL of the news organizations are slanted left, the REAL Americans, who are actually in the majority, have no news on their side. Every news organization lies to keep the majority of Americans clueless.

Ok . . . . . I will admit that MSNBC and NPR are slanted left but I listen to the big 3 networks and they all seem fine.
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The Department of Homeland Security has recently announced the creation of a program called “If You See Something, Say Something.” Posters, billboards and advertisements will be placed in airports, bus stations, movie theaters, and gas stations around the country, in addition to the videos that will soon begin playing non-stop inside 600 Walmart stores. This propaganda campaign will be promoting one consistent, repetitive message – the people around you cannot be trusted, watch them carefully at all times!

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Finally - I have not had a chance to check up on Columbus's newest cool thing - the Brew Pub. When I get any info I'll pass it on. OH - I did get an email from Karen saying "We are looking for managers in Columbus" Gain access to positions working from your residence with companies like Apple, Coleman, Adidas, Compaq and much more...

If you are serious about a career change, we want to hear from you. $256.95 PER DAY!!!!

WOW sweet - I have to click on a link and apply to some place in Isla-Colon Bocas-del Toro,
Republic of -Panama.

What could possibly go wrong!

A bargain at -205

2011-08-12T08:37:00.001-05:00

Finally lost. No worries! I had to play the Brewers. Only 1 unit.

Today the Crew are home against reeling Pittsburgh.

The Pirates are 5-15 in their last 20 games and are hitting .242 (only SF is worse) and scoring a solid 3.6 runs again (only SF is worse and they scoring 2.3 runs a game).

The Pirates have 3 less homeruns then the Brewers but are making a lot of errors so there league worse 5.36 ERA should be much higher. Brewers have the league best ERA in the last 20 at 2.75. OH - Pitts have given up a league worse 31 HR so in HR friendly Miller Park . . . . watch out!

This game SHOULD be -300 for Milwaukee so -205 is actually a bargain.

Brewer Numbers in the last 20.

Betencorp is hitting .377 .481 SLG
Fielder .343 .575 SLG
Braun .342 .605 SLG
Hart .333 .533 SLG
Morgon .294

And those are the top 5 guys with ABS

Brewers -205

This is just too easy

2011-08-11T07:32:00.000-05:00

Call me a lemming but I'm riding the Brewers until they lose - I mean come-on 13 of the last 14 and they are +120 dogs?

Brewers +120

BTW - Dan Uggla - hitting .220 and has a 30 game hitting streak??

KISS

2011-08-10T07:19:00.000-05:00

Sometimes there is no need to really get deep. Keep It Simple Stupid.

Do you really want to go against a team that has won 12 of it's last 13 games.

And when the 12 in the last 13 are underdogs this just cries out - TAKE THE DOG.

Record 61-49 +8.63

Keeping it Simple

HERE WE GO!!!

2011-08-09T08:06:00.000-05:00

Tuesday - Record 60-49 +7.55

Both teams have pretty easy schedules for the rest of the year. The Brewers have 25 home and 22 away games. The only team with a winning % they play besides the Cards are the Phillies with 4 games at home.

The Cards have 28 home and 19 away games with 16 games against teams above .500

Here is the difference between the Cards and Brewers. The Cards are a team that needs to get all juiced up to play well. They need LaRussa to get the team charged up, they play better when their testosterone is at a high level.

The Brewers on the other hand are a laid back team. They go out and have fun and when they are relaxed they play their best. So when LaRussa starts all of his shenanigans HE thinks he is getting the Crew off their game. But so far it looks like the Brewers are just ho-humming. Let the Cards get all anal we're not changing. HOWEVER - the main players, Braun and Fielder LOVE the banter between the two teams. So the right guys on the Brewers get charged up.

On the other hand the Cards are getting overheated and doing dumb things. LaRussa is very very good at taking a team with problems and making them contenders.

If you look at the two teams pens their basic stats are almost EXACTLY the same. Same exact inning pitched 327.1 same batting average .249. However - St. Louis pen has a higher OPB, higher SLG, higher OPS. MANY MANY more HBP (go figure)and twice as many IBB.

Today I'm on the Brewers at +108. In the last 20 games the Brewers have a team ERA of 2.61, the Cards are a decent 3.45.

Back to today - Edwin Jackson has a FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching)of 3.54 and an ERA of 4.11 meaning the defense behind him is not helping.

Marcums FIP is 3.77 and his ERA is actually better at 3.58.

I think Marcum will do well in St. Louis. He has HR problems in Miller Park and just does much much better on the road. I believe he will be relaxed in a pitcher friendly park.

Brewers +108

Huge Favs all weekend I bet

2011-08-05T07:16:00.002-05:00

I'm going to have a tough time the next few days as I'm covering a Antique and Wooden Boat Show which will mean being on the road by 5:00 in the morning tomorrow and taking off today by 7:30.

SO - Brewers are -210 favs ON THE ROAD.

I GUESS I'll take the Brewers even though I'm not real excited about paying that much. The run line is -130 which seems a little better. Still - on the road is scary.

record 58-48 +6.55

Sorry for no big write up but . . at least it's the Astros, not a lot to say the next few days as I'm sure we will be huge favorites all weekend.

Brewers -210 for this but maybe a run line -130 in reality. . on the road anything can happen.

Dog Fight

2011-08-03T07:36:00.000-05:00

WOW - what a freaking amazing game last night - talk about two teams going at each other. I wonder if Molina will be playing today or is this one of those wait a month and THEN suspend the hot head. You gotta think that spitting on a ump will not help you in your argument.

Anyway - tooting my own horn I called that game right on the head didn't I (remember I also smack myself when I lose so . . . .)

Record 57-48 +5.55

Today the Brewers are UNDERDOGS at -102 and I'm all over that one.

Couple things - IF Molina does not play or even if he does there might be some calls that will find there way against him. If the other catcher plays it's just a good thing anyway.

Jackson is a freaking good pitcher who has been hot so that is a major concern and the reason the Brewers are dogs. But Wolf is not too shabby either.

The Cards are slightly worse against LHPs but not THAT much. But Molina is very good vs, LHP so if he is not in the line-up it's a big deal.

I don't have a lot to say about this game - one thing I just noticed is that the Cards are not very good hitters in day games. Their RC/27 is a tiny 3.85 in 35 games while the Brewers are about even Day vs. Night. The Cards are way way worse during the day games. In fact the cards slugging at night is .441 and in daylight .381. weird.

Jackson's ERA is about 1/2 run worse in daylight in the last 3 years while Wolf is 0.20 better in daylight.

Wolf has a 3.15 ERA vs. St.Louis in the past three.

Brewers -102 and liking the game.

Cheers

BUT - the pitching staff is also better in daylight.

Gotta Do it

2011-08-02T07:41:00.000-05:00

Record 56-48 +4.35

I gotta do it. Today I have to go against the streaking Brewers. Just too many things are adding up and it looks like a time for a market pull back just a tad.

One reason is that I feel paying -130 is a bit outside the box and linemakers are counting on people piling on the Brewer bandwagon. Even Accruscore Projections say Brewers win tonight 65% of the time which is -190. ESPN Streak Cash players are 68.1% on Milwaukee . . .everybody is all over the Brewers. This is like buying tech stocks in 2000. I'm not a big bandwagon fan when it comes to wagering.

I can't get over the fact that The Brewers are not excellent vs. LHPs and Jaime Garcia is a pretty darn good pitcher and in 5 of his 6 games vs. the Brewers has given up 0,0,0,2,1 earned runs (7 runs in his one anomaly game). So taking away the anomaly game his Brewer ERA is 0.79.

Do I really want to pay -130 going against a guy with a 0.79 ERA? The Brewer bats were pretty silent last night except for 6 straight hits!

The Cards are a very good hitting team and Marcum has been a real surprise as one of the most consistent pitchers on a REALLY good pitching team.

So my feeling is that this game will come down to who gets the clutch hit. And again, paying -130 for a clutch hit just seems wrong. Paying +120 on a game I feel is 50/50 seems like the right choice.

Cards +120

Cardnials - Bring It losers!

2011-08-01T08:38:00.000-05:00

WELL - The Brewers are pretty good at beating bottom feeding teams!

Record 55-48 +3.35

Today the Crew play St. Louis and WORST CASE is that the Brewers are swept and we end up 1/2 game out of 1st place. I'm pretty sure that ain't going to happen.

Brewers as low favorites of -101 to -120 are 6-3 +2.78.

Chris Carpenter has been pitching lights out for the last two months with an average game score of 58.9 in his last 10 starts. Rickie Weeks KILLS Carpenter . . .too bad . . . how ever Lopez who has more ABs vs. Carp has a .443 OB and a .542 SLG so that's not to shabby.

Greinke in his last 5 starts has a Game Score of 61.8 so it will be a pretty good game tonight. He has given up only 2 HRs in 96 AB's to card players!

The Cards just played 7 home games against the Astros and the Cubs and went 4-3 while the Brewers were 6-0.

After tonight's game the Brewers only play St. Louis 11 more times! This year the total runs Card/Brewer games are 6,4,4,8,8,7.

I'm on the Brewers tonight at -120.

2011-07-31T08:48:00.000-05:00

My very small every other Sunday Brewer blog

Record 53-48 +2.45

Put a bunch on the Brewer run lane last night at -120 Brewers were -270 which is what I use in the records.

Today Brewers and Narveson are -180

Brett Myers has pitched 3 good games in a row but HAS given up TWENTY SIX home runs in 141 innings!! HOLY CRAP!! Prince has hit 4 HR's in 18 ABs vs. Brett.

Narveson has been pitching pretty well.

Nuff Said

Brewers at home as big Favs do well

Brewers -180 all the way

What the hell do I do

2011-07-30T10:57:00.000-05:00

Record 53-48 +1.35

OK - Brewers are -270 for today's game - the question is is that too much to ask? it's not like the crew is KILLING the ball but the worst team in the majors lose their best player.

The Astros are 4-20 when J.A. Happ starts a game and the guy is really having problems. Happ's last 6 starts he has an average game score of 32! That is BAD. Happ has given up 16 HRs in 110 innings BUT - is a lefty.

If you take away the one bad game for Gallardo his average game score is 62 - WITH the bad start it's still 54.

Hell - I'm not even going to talk about the game it is SO lopsided but -270?? The Brewers are averaging 2.5 runs a game in their last 8 games while the other team is averaging 2 runs a game.

The TOTAL is 8.5

The Run line for the game is -120 which is looking sort of good at the moment as I don't see this being close. Either the Brewers win 15-0 or they lose outright 2-3.

I tell ya what I'm doing - I'm playing the run line at -120 - my stats will reflect that I'm wagering Brewers -270 but in reality it's -120 1.5 runs. I want to keep everything within the norm.

The Stro's Bring it!

2011-07-29T07:42:00.000-05:00

4 to 2 on a -185 game is not the most comfortable score you can think of. -185 you SHOULD have your way with a team, BUT . . . I'll take a win for the Brewers any day. When betting a dog of +165 you are pretty much rolling the dice.

Tonight the Brewers play a team that not only has a worse road record then the Brewers but they have a home record worse then their road record! Jordon Lyles pitches who has lost 9 straight games when he has started and he has not pitched THAT bad.

BUT - he does play for Houston who are 5-15 in their last 20 games. They can hit for an average average but have absolutely zero power and do not score runs. In the last 20 they have an On Base of .296 and a SLG of .356.. They are basically an entire team made up of Mark Kotseys except they walk even less!

Of course going up against then is Randy Wolf who in the last 8 games has seen his offense score a total of 16 runs. Wolf does very very well against current Arizona players limiting their 153 ABs to a .216 Avg, .268 OB .340 SLG. He is 3-2 as a Brewer vs. the Astros.

The only tiny worry is that Houston did beat the Cards on the road 2 straight but was it more of the Cards ineptitude?

This is the Astros final series of a horrific road trip ( 2-5 so far . . which is better then their average road trip), they were swept by the Cubs, lost two straight to the Cards and won the last two 4-2 and 5-3.

The crew is 4 and 2 against Houston this year.

I'm on the Brewers -180

The Brewers are -180 and now as big favs of -178 or greater they are 3-1.

Houston in the last 20 games have given up the 2nd most homeruns in the League

Rickie GONE

2011-07-28T08:02:00.000-05:00

At least we have Counsil to fill in for Weeks, no loss THERE!!!

Today's game looks REAL obvious. Brewers should kick some ass right? I mean come on, Randy Wells.

Here are a few things swaying me off the Brewers today.

1. Wells DID beat the Brewers earlier this year.

2 The Brewers, when huge favorites at home do not do well, at -170 or greater the Crew is 3-3 -2.21 units. When they win the average score is 10.3 to 5. When they lose the average score is 1.6 to 4.3.

3. -185 is a LOT to pay when team has just lost their most important batter. It's not Prince, it's not Braun. The #1 offensive guy on the team was Weeks. The game after he goes down there will be a transition. Luckily it'll be against the Cubs but . . . .

AccuScore projections say Brewers win 71% of the time after 10,000 simulations which is about a -240. But it does not take into account the psychological loss. Plus what lineup? Lucroy probably will be on the bench with non-hitting Kottaras catching. And how is Braun, will he start a day game after a night game or is it a "give the quad a rest day" because this one is in the bag already.

I gotta go with the huge Dog today because I don't want to get to far away from breaking even. CUBS +165

record 52-47 +1.35

Getting a deal!

2011-07-27T07:44:00.000-05:00

THAT is why we like Kameron Loe - the guy is a ground ball specialist. When Roenicke put Loe in in the 6th inning with the bases loaded and no out I was perhaps the only person in America who had confidence. It seems to me that if the Brewer bats can come through and the Crew have a lead, the game is now a 6 inning game. . . . at least at home LOL

Record 51-47 +0.35 BACK IN THE BLACK!!

Carlos Zambrano goes against Greinke tonight and the Brewers are a mammoth -163. This is nose bleed territory but -150 to -170 the Brewers are 13-1. It gets REAL scary -170 and above so let's keep these lines below -170.

Zambrano has pitched poorly in 5 of his last 7 outings and deserves his 4.70 ERA. He has sucked vs. the Brewers this year. What the Crew needs to do is get to him early as he struggles out of the gate, calms down and by the 3rd time through the line-up team have figured him out!

Fielder is a Zambrano killer with a .532 OB and a 1.191 OPS. As a whole the Brewers are about a .500 club vs. Zam but Brewers have not beaten Zambrano in 5 years in Miller Park . . . it's meaningless! However Zam is 7-0 with a 2.40 ERA his last eight starts at Miller Park. MEANINGLESS - I hope.

On the other side of the coin is Greinke does NOT deserve his 4.84 ERA. He has pitched well in 5 of his last 6 games and has a 2.88 ERA in July which is more of what he should be doing. Zacks big problem this year is the home run ball but as long as no one is on base it only hurts a little. Come on, the guy has only walked 18 batters!! WOW!!

The current Cubs only have a .337 slugging against him in 83 ABs.

One thing I noticed is when Zack loses he loses BIG. In the 5 games the Brewers have lost when he pitches the opposing team has scored, 8, 12, 12, 9, 4. The Brewers are 10-4 in games he has started.

AccuScore simulation projections have the Brewers winning 67% of the time with a 21% chance Braun hits a HR, 20.2% Hart hits one and 19.2% Prince his one - interesting

In case you are wondering 67% would be -200ish so -163 is a deal.

And did you see the final play of the Pirate game? The ump totally blew the call at home plate - Pirates lose.

Brewers -163

Home Again

2011-07-26T07:50:00.000-05:00

A note to Anonymous - no chance of beating the Phillies? ummm - so far they have done pretty well against the Phillies this year!
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So the crew is back home again and I am all over the Brewers tonight at -136. MY road trip went 4-7 so I'm glad to be home again.

This is in their wheel house as the Brewers at home as larger favorites are crushing the line.

One problem - Dempster is a Brewer killer. Against the current Brewers with a total of 243 ABs he has a .219 AVG and a .366 Slugging against and in his last 20 games vs. the Crew he is 14-6 HOWEVER only 5-6 in Milwaukee. Remember - he shut the Brewers out in 7 innings, 4 hits 1 walk and 7 Ks on June 13 . . . in Chicago.

He is the Greinke of the Cubs. Not a bad pitcher but has a 5.00 ERA . He has a 3.99 ERA at home and a 6.70 ERA on the road.

He will go against Narveson who has won 7 of 9 in games he has started and has had Game Scores above league average in his last 5 outings. He has never lost to the Cubs and in the last 3 years has 22 Ks in 19 innings.

The Cubs are about equal LHP vs, RHP so being a lefty is no big deal.

The Brewers in the -130 to -170 range are 23-4 +16.23 units.

The Cubs are 8-12 in their last 20 while the Brewers are 10-10. Cubs have scored the 3rd least runs in the last 20 while the Brewers are about the middle of the pack. Cubs OB is .294, Brewers .310. Fielding the teams are tied for 11 place in the league - STELLER!

Here is something - the Cubs in the last 20 games have given up 7 unearned runs - Brewers? 14

A few fun Brewer numbers in the last 20 games

Betancourt is hitting .294 with a .453 slugging .324 OB
Week has a .241 Avg with a .494 SLG .341 OB
Pitchers .261 AVG .441 SLG and a .324 OB

Cubs Pitchers .114 across the board.

Fielder has a .343 SLG
Kotsey least the team in RBIs with 11 with a .304 average and a .478 SLG

Brewers -136

Record 50-47 -0.65

2011-07-24T11:19:00.000-05:00

HEY - even if the Brewers lose today I call the road trip a success at 5-6 - better then 2-9 which is what I was expecting.

I'm playing the Brewers today at +100 on the road. They seem to do well as tiny dogs or tiny favorites on the road and are 7-5 +1.93.

Madison Bumgarner does not give up homeruns at all - HOWEVER - when pitching in San Fran he gets hit pretty hard as opposing batters hit .313 against him.

Bumgarner is the Randy Wolf of the Giants when it comes to run support. Only once in 19 starts at AT&T field have the Giants giving him more then 3 runs. Lefties have problems against Bumgarner but Prince is not hitting ANYWAY so don't expect a lot out of him today.

Gallardo is 5-2 and 2-1 in San Fran.

One thing of note is that the Brewers have the 3rd least strike-out in the last 20 games while the Giant pitchers have the most Ks in the last 20 games!

I don't have much to say on this game - I like the Brewer chances in a low scoring game today (which now will be a 9-8 game).

Record 50-46 +0.35

Not unexpected!

2011-07-22T08:09:00.000-05:00

Looking at the past six Game Scores of the pitches the Brewers have been facing it's pretty telling on how they did on this road trip

Working oldest to today

Avg Game Score / Decision
61 / L
52 / L
46 / W
37 / W
51 / L
36 / W
Rookie / W
54 / L

Today 66 / ?

Game Score is just a easy way to see just how effective a pitcher was in one number. Number if innings pitched, BB/K Hits Runs Earned Runs are taken into account. The average pitcher is 50.

Here are the Brewers average Game Score in their last set of games

Gallardo - 53
Greinke - 62
Marcum - 47
Narveson - 58
Wolf - 52

So today we have 47 vs. 66 and the Brewers are +120 on the road.

That +120 area has been a real shit hole for the Brewers on the road going 3 and 12 and -8.41 units when betting on them.

SO - I'm all over the Giants at -130 today.

Matt Cain has been pitching lights out baseball with 5 of his last 6 game scores over 65. The Brewers have lost 8 of the last 10 games Marcum has started and he has been keeping the outfielders busy with flyballs with their only rest on home runs of which there is always AT LEAST one.

HOWEVER - Cain has not fair well vs. the Brewers going 2-4 with lots of K's but lots of BBs also. Marcum is 0-2 vs. the Giants.

AT&T Park is a pretty fair park when it comes to hits and HR's ro RHH but Lefties have a hard time poking them out. It does give up a good amount of doubles and a LOT of triples - how about putting a bet that Morgon has at least one triple this weekend.

Back to Cain. He can not hold runners on so expect the Brewers to be running if they can get on. He does NOT give up a lot of double plays so Braun and Hart should be happy and expect the catcher to be jumping around as Cain does get pretty wild at times. When he misses he REALLY misses.

BUT - I gotta go with the Giants tonight and I better take a nap as I'm losing a lot of sleep hours and NOW we are in the real west coast games that start VERY late.

Record 49-45 +0.65 and trying to keep my head above the water.

The next to game score games are

Brewers / Giants average Game Score

52 vs. 56
53 vs. 62

I WIN!!!

2011-07-21T10:53:00.000-05:00

What a game last night - stayed up for the whole thing so I'm working in like 4 hours sleep now!

Drew and Gomez are out of for the season and it hurts the Brewers. Gomez had a .821 OPS vs. LHP and his defense saved or won at LEAST 4 games for the Brewers. He will be missed! Roenicke completely out coached Gibson last night but COME ON - leave Narvason in. Seriously, he had like 85 pitches and had shut down 10 batters in a row!!!
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The Brewers have a winning record on a tough road trip??? NO WAY! 4-3? GET OUT!!!

Greinke vs. Kennedy tonight. Kennedy's good, what can you say - he goes deep into games which is what the Dbacks need. The think about Kennedy is that he will pitch a game with a lot of Fly balls and then the next game he is a GB pitcher.

Greinke has pitched 3 very good games and 4 of his last 5. In fact his whole year has been a good year. There is a reason he is 7-3. Don't look at his ERA which is full of bad luck and bad fielding. He has either been striking out batters or delivering ground balls which find there way through the porous Brewer infield.

I like the Brewers order - makes perfect sense and it looks like the hitters are enjoying it.

I'm taking the Brewers at +100 again. They are doing good things and +100 is a good on the road range.

Chasing my tail

2011-07-20T08:24:00.000-05:00

Road trips are killing me. Remember yesterday I could not tell if -115 was the beginning of a good range for the Brewers or the end of a very bad range for the Brewers on the road.

I guess it was the beginning of the good range.

Well today it's a little easier. The Brewers are at +100 which is a good area and looking at the match up I like it.

Saunders gives up a TON of homeruns at home in the past three years. 46 HR's in 311 innings pitched (although 1 year was with the Angles which is not a HR park?). He is also much worse vs. RHH with an OPS of .789 in 1700 ABs. He has only pitched against Milwaukee once and got shelled!

Narvo is 2-1 vs. the 'D-backs and has pitched 4 decent games in a row winning 3 of the 4.

So far this road trip has been OK for the crew - I'll take a .500 trip any day.

FOR ME it's been an ugly trip and this is a big big game as my record is 48-44 +0.65 - I WANT TO STAY ABOVE .500!!!!

The Brewers are 12-16 in Arizona and averaging 6.6 runs a game - I think they keep it going.

So I'm all over the Brewers today +100

Good

Gonig out on a limb

2011-07-18T10:31:00.000-05:00

On to Arizona and I made a bet that just "feels" right. If I lose it's back to tryign to take my brain out of the mix.

I picked the Brewers at +115 today. Yea - they suck as dogs in the +1teens but Josh Collmenter just does not instill a lot of confidence in paying such a large price for a favorite.

Yea - his last game pitched he shut out Milwaukee and yada but it was the 1st time the Brewers have seen him which always seems to be a problem for the Crew.

Wolf on the other hand does very very well against Arizona, 5-1 in the last 3 years and 13-6 in games he as started.

Then there is Fielder who hits .328 with 10 homers and 22 RBIs in 39 games against the Diamondbacks while the Brewers have won 6 straight in Arizona and have out scored the 'backs 46-14.

Hopefully Braun will play as he is 9 for 26 with three doubles, two homers, eight RBIs and 10 runs in his last six games at Chase Field and even Wold has won his last 6 starts in Arizona!

I THINK the Brewers have something going - new lineup and new back end of the bullpen.

I'll be up late tonight.

Brewers +115

record 48-42 +2.65 and treading water!

WHEW - good game

2011-07-17T09:19:00.001-05:00

Two good things one bad thing happened last night. besides the score.
GOOD
1. I HAVE to think that Loe pitched himself into a mop up roll for a while OR a "one batter need a DP" roll. (is it roll or role - I've been up for 5 minutes and have to go to "work" in a craft brew store today so time is short).

2. FINALLY Weeks is out of the lead off role and into the driving in runs roll.

BAD

Braun twisted his fallopian tubes or whatever swinging a bat and we will need Kotsey to hit .400 again I BET for the next 2 weeks.

OK today's bet is a tough one when I look at the pitchers. Marcum is looking good and Cook looks very bad. so you would think the Brewers would be the easy pick because . . . they have momentum now?

If you look at last nights game the reason the Brewers won was not really because their offense shined but because the solid Rockie defense went belly up for a couple innings.

Cook, while looking very very bad is a HUGE HUGE ground ball pitcher and has a winning record in Brewer games at 6-5 with a 2.88 ERA. The Crew will be without Braun who is a Cook killer (1.226 OPS vs, Cook). Kotsey is not BAD against Cook at .729.

Marcum's last 5 games have been less the league average in Starts and the Brewers have lost 7 of his last 8 starts with a 6.48 ERA but he is 1-0 vs. Colo.

Back to Cook though. Cook gives up runs because people get on base and score. Does not really give up a lot of HRs because of his extreme sinker ball. He is the the Rockies Loe. People get on base and people score. He is AMAZING with RISP and two outs but with less then two outs there can be a hitting parade. The question is - can the Brewers take advantage of this? Their bats are more geared towards the big inning with HR's not stringing 3 or 4 hits together in an inning ON THE ROAD.

The Brewers as road favs in the -115 area are 0-5. They are better as smaller road favs or even larger road favs but the average score as a road chalk in the teens is 1.4 to 4.4. Not a trend I want when you are putting extra cash out on a favorite.

SO - Rockies at +104.

Record 48-41 +3.65

Cheers! GO CREW!!

Clay Matthew Jr or Aaron Andrews.

2011-07-15T07:52:00.000-05:00

Awesome great start - what is worse - giving up 12 runs? Scoring 3 runs in Colorado? or 2 errors!! Game one of the 11 games in 11 days all on the road starts with a big juicy crap.

Today Narveson vs. relatively unknown Nicasio. Well I have always noticed that relatively unknown's do well vs. the Brewers. I have no real data on this but every time the Crew play against a rookie they flop.

What if K Rod never has an opportunity to pitch!

I gotta put my money on Colorado today at a modest -124. The Brewers are +114. The Brewers are 2-6 on the road as small dogs in the +119 to +100 range and last night did not install a lot of confidence in the road warriors.

Braun has a few streaks going with 23 straight games with a hit AND 24 straight games against the Rockies.

LOL - listening to Dan Patrick he is wondering who had better hair at the ESPY's, Clay Matthew Jr or Aaron Andrews! Is it Clay Matthew Jr? or Clay Matthew III. Isn't Clay Matthew Jr actually "our" Clay Matthew's dad? I'm so confused!

Anyway - Rockies AGAIN. I PRAY the Brewers win. I would be 1-1 and losing a little but I would feel better about the Crew. This is a really tough road trip!

Rockies -124

2nd half!

2011-07-14T10:20:00.000-05:00

Back into action with a new Set-up man. K Rod comes to Milwaukee with baggage and an attitude and it's the only thing I can see wrong. If K Rod can just forget the 17 million that the Brewers will steal away from him we have the bast 1-2 punch in the Majors for shutting the door. This also makes it so we will have a closer every day of the year if needed. No longer have to worry about over pitching in close games.

With that said the Brewers play in a HR park not unlike Milwaukee for lefties but very forgiving for right handed hitters and the best park in the majors for getting on base.

Common sense says play the Brewers today because they are +128 which is a pretty heavy dog for the Brewers but frankly they are 3-10 as dogs in the +130 range and I'm not going to let my optimism sway me. This is a time I just gotta put my homer-tude in my back pocket and realize that the Brewers have sucked on the road.

I hope they stop sucking but they have to prove it to me.

Gallardo is 0-3 in Colorado and 0-5 overall and all five were as chalks. Jimenez is 2-0 vs. Milwaukee at home and 4-1 overall.

So I gotta go with Colorado as home fav and a hefty -133.

GO BREWERS.

Record 46-40 +2.82

Sundau 7/10/11

2011-07-10T10:19:00.001-05:00

Sunday 7/10/11 Brewers at -140. This is the Crews wheelhouse for winning. -130 to -160 they are 18-3 and +13.84 units.

PLUS - the Brewers are going against Dontrelle Willis and his 6.85 ERA. I think the Crew are getting a deal on this one> I will guarentee he will not see the 7th inning and PROBABLY will not even see the 6th inning. he walks a shit load of batters, can not hold runners on base, throws a fair amount of DP balls along with Wild Pitches, an OK glove, a Lefty killer.

I expect an Active game on the base paths!

Record 45-40 +1.82

I'm putting a little extra on this game

Easy win last night

2011-07-09T09:22:00.001-05:00

WOW - exciting. One of the funniest lines I have seen in game comments was Brewers go against

[QUOTE]I certainly wasn't betting on a McGehee infield single[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE]He was inspired by the sausage race[/QUOTE]

Brewers go against Johnny Cueto today who is ultra hot. I'm going with the Crew at -104 mainly because I don't want to pay =-106 for the struggling Reds.

The Brewers have done OK vs. Cueto in the past 3 years hitting 7 HRs in 46 innings and 4 HRs in 14 innings at Miller Park. Where the hell is Overstock.com Park anyway! Good God what a horrible name.

One thing to look for is that Cueto is very poor with RISP with a .863 OPS.

The Brewers have lost 6 of Marcums last 7 games but has not pitched THAT badly. He has been a little under average for sure in his last 4 games.

Cinci has not had a kind July so far and I'm always concerned with Braun out but Kotsey is hitting .400 this month replacing Braun and has a triple and 2 HR's so SO FAR there has not been a offensively. Defensively is another story and I thought I would never appreciate Brauns defense but I do now.

ANYWAY - Brewers -104 today

Record 45-39 +2.86 and a little breather room.