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	<title>Gunpowder &amp; Lead</title>
	
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		<title>Fun with additional SNAFU context</title>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 03 Apr 2013 22:13:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>caidid</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://gunpowderandlead.org/?p=2700</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Earlier today, Rue illustrated the horror of the Army&#8217;s $900,000,000 &#8216;accounting error&#8217; by calculating what that much money could have bought in terms of various weapons systems, and by comparing it to the total defense expenditures of other whole countries. &#8230; <a href="http://gunpowderandlead.org/2013/04/fun-with-additional-snafu-context/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Earlier today, Rue <a title="SNAFU" href="http://gunpowderandlead.org/2013/04/snafu/">illustrated the horror</a> of the Army&#8217;s $900,000,000 &#8216;accounting error&#8217; by calculating what that much money could have bought in terms of various weapons systems, and by comparing it to the total defense expenditures of other whole countries.</p>
<p>I posted a link to Rue&#8217;s piece on Facebook, and my friend <a href="https://twitter.com/kristinXYZ">Kristin</a> commented, &#8220;Kind of puts that whole &#8220;cut PBS funding because every little bit counts&#8221; red herring into perspective.&#8221; Which got me thinking: just for funsies, what if we take that number outside the completely-overblown-and-disproportionate-to-all-other-facets-of-reality context of the Defense budget? How much would $900,000,000 get us in other parts of our own federal budget? I took a peek through various other Departments&#8217; budgets to see, sampling from a wide range of programs. (Estimates are based on the <a href="http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/Overview">White House&#8217;s FY13 budget</a>).</p>
<p>I&#8217;m totally not an accountant, so some of my calculations might be off, but from what I could figure here is a sampling of what other departments/agencies could fund with the amount of money Defense essentially loses in its couch cushions:</p>
<div>
<table width="447" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<colgroup>
<col width="303" />
<col width="144" /> </colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="303" height="34"><strong>Agency/Program</strong></td>
<td width="144"><strong>How Far $900,000,000 Would Go There</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="303" height="17">Head Start</td>
<td width="144">6 weeks</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="303" height="17">NASA Exploration</td>
<td width="144">3 months</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="303" height="17">Secret Service</td>
<td width="144">6 months</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="303" height="17">USAID Operations</td>
<td width="144">7 months</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="303" height="17">Fish &amp; Wildlife Service</td>
<td width="144">8 months</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="303" height="17">ATF</td>
<td width="144">9 months</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="303" height="17">Federal Marshal Service</td>
<td width="144">9 months</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="303" height="17">Dept. of Education Race to the Top Program</td>
<td width="144">11 months</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="303" height="17">Federal Work Study Program</td>
<td width="144">11 months</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="303" height="17">Small Business Administration</td>
<td width="144">1 year</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="303" height="17">Millennium Challenge Corporation</td>
<td width="144">1 year</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="303" height="34">Dept. of State Non-proliferation, Anti-terrorist, Demining Programs</td>
<td width="144">17 months</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="303" height="17">Smithsonian Institution</td>
<td width="144">17 months</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="303" height="17">VA Prosthetic Research</td>
<td width="144">18 months</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="303" height="17">Bureau of Labor Statistics</td>
<td width="144">18 months</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="303" height="17">OSHA</td>
<td width="144">19 months</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="303" height="17">NASA Aeronautics</td>
<td width="144">20 months</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="303" height="34">Dept. of Housing and Urban Development Housing for the Elderly</td>
<td width="144">2 years</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="303" height="17">Peace Corps</td>
<td width="144">29 months</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="303" height="34">Dept. of Justice Juvenile Justice &amp; Child Safety Programs</td>
<td width="144">3 years</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="303" height="34">Dept. of Labor Veterans Employment &amp; Training Program</td>
<td width="144">3.5 years</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="303" height="17">Corporation for Public Broadcasting (PBS)</td>
<td width="144">4 years</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="303" height="34">Dept. of Commerce Economic Development Administration</td>
<td width="144">4 years</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="303" height="17">National Endowment for the Arts</td>
<td width="144">6 years</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="303" height="17">National Endowment for the Humanities</td>
<td width="144">6 years</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="303" height="34">Dept. of Housing and Urban Development Housing for People with Disabilities</td>
<td width="144">6 years</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="303" height="34">Dept. of Labor Office of Workers&#8217; Compensation Programs</td>
<td width="144">7 years</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="303" height="17">National Galleries of Art</td>
<td width="144">7.5 years</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="303" height="34">Dept. of Health and Human Services Office of Civil Rights</td>
<td width="144">23 years</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
<p>Nah, but <a href="http://www.stripes.com/news/army/dod-inspector-general-finds-900m-stockpile-of-stryker-parts-1.214680">unusable Stryker parts</a> are cool, too.</p>
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		<item>
		<title>SNAFU</title>
		<link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/GunpowderLead/~3/jC3FwdKGcKc/</link>
		<comments>http://gunpowderandlead.org/2013/04/snafu/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 03 Apr 2013 16:08:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Jonathan Rue</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Defense Acquisition]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Military]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Slightly Larger Arms]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://gunpowderandlead.org/?p=2691</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The U.S. Army recently discovered $900 million worth of spare Stryker parts, many of which are obsolete or unnecessary, collecting dust in a warehouse. None of the parts appear on the Army’s property books, a $900 million accounting error. From &#8230; <a href="http://gunpowderandlead.org/2013/04/snafu/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The U.S. Army recently discovered $900 million worth of spare Stryker parts, many of which are obsolete or unnecessary, collecting dust in a warehouse. None of the parts appear on the Army’s property books, a $900 million accounting error.</p>
<p>From <a href="http://www.stripes.com/news/army/dod-inspector-general-finds-900m-stockpile-of-stryker-parts-1.214680">Stars &amp; Stripes</a>:</p>
<blockquote><p>Take, for instance, the $57 million worth of obsolete infrared equipment the Army has not installed in Strykers since 2007. It lingered at the Stryker warehouse until the Inspector General called attention to it last year.</p>
<p>Or, the 9,179 small replacement gears called pinions the Army bought as a temporary fix for a Stryker suspension problem that surfaced between 2007 and 2009. The Army took care of the root malfunction in 2010, <strong>but kept buying pinions</strong>.</p>
<p>It needed only 15 of the gears. The 9,164 extra pinions are worth $572,000, the Inspector General reported.</p></blockquote>
<p>Dan Goure of the Lexington Institute, thinks it “much ado about nothing” because it’s “essentially miscommunication.” Miscommunication? Apparently, fighting a war and keeping good records are mutually exclusive tasks, never mind the fact that the Stryker Program Management Office wasn’t actually fighting a war, but rather working in an air-conditioned office in Michigan not balancing their books.</p>
<p>I understand that, given the size of DoD’s budget, this is essentially a rounding error. Maybe that’s because it’s too abstract. Using the DoD Comptroller’s <a href="http://comptroller.defense.gov/defbudget/fy2013/FY2013_Weapons.pdf">FY2013 Program Acquisition Costs by Weapon System report</a>, I calculated the per unit cost for weapon systems. Here’s a list of nicer things we could have had for $900,000,000:</p>
<p>2 Littoral Combat Ships<br />
5 RQ-4 Global Hawks<br />
11 F/A-18E Super Hornets<br />
31 CH-47F Chinook heavy lift helicopters<br />
45 MQ-9 Reapers<br />
150 Strykers<br />
562 Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles<br />
600 Tomahawk missiles</p>
<p>Or we can put this accounting error in the context of total military expenditures by <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures">country</a>.</p>
<p>1. United States $689 billion<br />
2. China $129 billion<br />
3. Russia $64 billion<br />
…<br />
72. Serbia $920 million<br />
73. Stryker PMO accounting error $900 million<br />
74. Slovenia $788 million<br />
75. Bahrain $731 million</p>
<p>Goure’s comments are actually insightful in that they show at least some segment of the defense community believes this incident to be completely normal. The lack of accountability will reinforce the business as usual response. The Department receives and spends so much money, and it’s so complex that it’s hard to keep track. And it’s never been audited so it’s nearly impossible to identify how it (mis)spends money except in cases like this where the Inspector General stumbles upon it. Panetta ordered DoD to be audit ready by 2014, which should force some degree of accountability.</p>
<p>So before we follow the recommendations of those who think DoD needs even more money, or that we can&#8217;t afford to cut a single dime, perhaps we should ensure the Department knows how to spend the money we already give it.</p>
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		<item>
		<title>Staff size and DoD overhead</title>
		<link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/GunpowderLead/~3/eUOWqqZRReg/</link>
		<comments>http://gunpowderandlead.org/2013/03/staff-size-and-dod-overhead/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 15 Mar 2013 20:12:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Jonathan Rue</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Military]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://gunpowderandlead.org/?p=2668</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Buried in Rajiv Chandrasekaran’s long and depressing article on the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter is an interesting statistic. The F-35 program office employs 2,000 people. Two. Thousand. For some perspective, here’s a list of offices, staffs, agencies, and commands and &#8230; <a href="http://gunpowderandlead.org/2013/03/staff-size-and-dod-overhead/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Buried in Rajiv Chandrasekaran’s <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/f-35s-ability-to-evade-budget-cuts-illustrates-challenge-of-paring-defense-spending/2013/03/09/42a6085a-8776-11e2-98a3-b3db6b9ac586_print.html">long and depressing article</a> on the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter is an interesting statistic. The F-35 program office employs 2,000 people.</p>
<p>Two. Thousand.</p>
<p>For some perspective, here’s a list of offices, staffs, agencies, and commands and their estimated staff size (<em>not</em> including contractors):</p>
<ul>
<li>Pacom                                              3,200</li>
<li>Joint Staff                                       2,800</li>
<li>OSD                                                  2,700</li>
<li>Centcom                                           2,000</li>
<li>Defense Logistics Agency              27,000</li>
</ul>
<p>I know that the Joint Strike Fighter is an inordinately complex acquisition program that, after years of neglect and mismanagement, requires diligent oversight, but it’s still just a single acquisition program. And yet it employs the same number of people as Centcom, which hasn’t exactly been starved of work in the last decade.</p>
<p>As the Department’s budget grew after 9/11, so too did the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overhead_(business)">overhead</a>. Overhead consumes about <a href="http://www.defense.gov/News/NewsArticle.aspx?ID=59082">40% of the budget</a>. As of FY10, that was $240 billion, equivalent to the entire Israeli economy. We’ve been trying to reduce it for years.</p>
<p>In 1997, Secretary of Defense William Cohen created a task force called the <a href="http://www.fas.org/man/docs/dri/b051497_bt238-97.html">Defense Reform Initiative</a> and tasked it “to find ways to improve the organization and procedures in the Department” by recommending “organizational reforms, reductions in management overhead and streamlined business practices.” The task force <a href="http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA393659">recommended</a>: 1) OSD and associated activities personnel will be reduced 33% from FY 1996 levels; 2) the Joint Staff and associated activities personnel will be reduced 29% from FY 1996; and 3) Defense Agencies personnel will be reduced 21% over the next five years.</p>
<p>In 2010, Secretary Gates tasked the Defense Business Board with repeating the exercise. Again, a task force <a href="http://dbb.defense.gov/pdf/DBB_Overhead_final_07_22_Board_Meeting.pdf">recommended</a> reducing overhead by streamlining processes and eliminating positions. Some, like dissolving Joint Forces Command, were implemented (though most of these positions simply transferred to the Joint Staff). Gates also <a href="http://www.defense.gov/releases/release.aspx?releaseid=13782">identified</a> 102 general officer / flag officer (GOFO) billets to be eliminated, 65 of which were supposed to be eliminated no later than this month. To date, <a href="http://thewillandthewallet.squarespace.com/blog/2013/3/13/counting-flags-and-generals.html">only 31 have been eliminated, mostly 1-stars.</a></p>
<p>And these are just the two most recent iterations of the game. Studies recommending efficiencies and reducing staff size go back to 1956. They all say the same thing.</p>
<p>The sequester is stupid. There’s no defense for reducing a department’s budget by slicing every line item by an equal amount. Not when there’s so much fat available. But it’s laughable when people act like the budget can’t be cut by another penny. To make that claim is to either betray an ignorance of how the Department actually spends money or put political ideology before analysis.</p>
<p>Lt Gen Christopher Bogdan, the F-35 program officer, recently <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/12/us-lockheed-fighter-office-idUSBRE92B18520130312">announced</a> his intention to streamline his office by trimming staff. Putting aside for a moment the almost comical goal of keeping JSF costs under control by trimming some staff, I’ve got one thing to say.</p>
<p>Good luck, sir!</p>
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		<item>
		<title>Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb and Al Qaeda’s Senior Leadership</title>
		<link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/GunpowderLead/~3/4_L5aBGagx4/</link>
		<comments>http://gunpowderandlead.org/2013/01/al-qaeda-in-the-islamic-maghreb-and-al-qaedas-senior-leadership/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 19 Jan 2013 22:57:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Daveed Gartenstein-Ross</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Al Qaeda]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mali]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ayman al Zawahiri]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jason Burke]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Leah Farrall]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Max Fisher]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Osama bin Laden]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Yunis al Mauritani]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://gunpowderandlead.org/?p=2627</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[With recent events in Mali and Algeria, there is a notable uptick in interest in Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). One question commentators are asking is what the relationship is between AQIM and al Qaeda&#8217;s senior leadership (AQSL) &#8230; <a href="http://gunpowderandlead.org/2013/01/al-qaeda-in-the-islamic-maghreb-and-al-qaedas-senior-leadership/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>With recent events in Mali and Algeria, there is a notable uptick in interest in Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). One question commentators are asking is what the relationship is between AQIM and al Qaeda&#8217;s senior leadership (AQSL) in Pakistan, under Ayman al Zawahiri. The word I&#8217;ve seen employed most frequently to describe the links between the two is &#8220;murky.&#8221;</p>
<p>I agree with the characterization that the relationship between AQIM and AQSL is murky; but when it is translated into popular discourse, murkiness is often inaccurately understood as &#8220;we don&#8217;t know if there are ties between the two.&#8221; For example, Max Fisher <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2013/01/17/is-the-algeria-hostage-crisis-really-al-qaeda/">writes</a> at the <em>Washington Post</em>, &#8220;It’s tough to know the exact connection between leaders in the Algeria-based AQIM and those in far-away Afghanistan and Pakistan&#8230;. It’s entirely possible that AQIM’s links to al-Qaeda already are, are becoming, or will become closer to al-Qaeda than we think.&#8221; The clear implication is that there may be some connections between AQIM and AQSL, but that it is impossible to know whether they exist, and if so, to what extent. Likewise, Jason Burke <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jan/18/algeria-crisis-al-qaida-aqim">writes</a> in <em>The Guardian</em>, &#8220;The ties binding AQIM to the leadership of al-Qaida far away in south-west Asia have always been tenuous. The difficulties in communication, let alone travel, precluded any tight co-operation.&#8221;</p>
<p>But the documents captured from Osama bin Laden&#8217;s compound in Abbottabad <em>do</em> reveal communications between AQIM and AQSL that extend over the span of four years, and include discussion of strategic and operational issues. While it is possible that after bin Laden&#8217;s death, when Ayman al Zawahiri became AQSL&#8217;s emir, these communications were crippled or otherwise ceased, there&#8217;s no reason that this should be our <em>a priori</em> assumption. This entry is designed to add granularity to the discussion of AQIM and AQSL through a look at the Abbottabad documents. It concludes by agreeing that the AQIM/AQSL relationship <em>is</em> murky, but explaining that commentators can do a better job of representing the ambiguities.</p>
<p><strong>The Abbottabad Documents on AQSL and AQIM</strong></p>
<p>Four of the released Abbottabad documents make referfence to the AQSL/AQIM relationship. I examine these documents in the chronological order in which they were written:</p>
<p><a href="http://www.jihadica.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/SOCOM-2012-0000011-Trans.pdf"><em>Document 11</em></a><em>, circa early 2007</em>. The author states that he is in in contact with members of AQIM, who are doing fine. He includes an upbeat message from AQIM (&#8220;the brothers in Algeria&#8221;) saying that &#8220;things are steadily improving: morale is rising, support is growing, and military activity has been improving recently. Every week there is a bombing, an encounter or ambushes.&#8221; The message from AQIM says that &#8220;the enemy,&#8221; presumably the Algerian military, was &#8220;thrown off by the recent strikes and have responded with continuous random shelling of the mountains. This has been very good for the brothers, as much of the ammunition has not detonated and the brothers are using it.&#8221; AQIM records five casualties within the week preceding their message.</p>
<p>There are tactical notes from AQIM regarding the fight against the Algerians. They state their concern &#8220;about the Russian Cobra helicopters (MI-34) with laser-guided missiles; they are impacting on the four-wheel-drive vehicles, which are indispensible in the Sahara Desert. Underlying that is the problem of badly needed money for good-quality weapons to counter these menacing helicopters; the mujahedin don&#8217;t have single one of them, nor a single missile.&#8221; The Algerians&#8217; infrared sensors are singled out as being of particular concern.</p>
<p>The correspondence records that the &#8220;commander of the east&#8221; informed AQIM that they received four Libyan recruits in the past week, following a group of thirty the week before that. (Note that this precedes al Qaeda&#8217;s formal merger with the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group by around a year, indicating that Libyans were already joining AQIM before the merger occurred.) The Libyan recruits were being trained at Tabsa, which is about 600 kilometers east of Algiers, and <a href="http://www.algeria.com/forums/politics-politique/15030-algeria-hit-surge-guerrilla-violence-16.html">featured</a> in late 2006 AQIM/GSPC propaganda.</p>
<p><em><a href="http://www.jihadica.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/SOCOM-2012-0000019-Trans.pdf">Document 19</a>, circa May/June 2010</em>. This letter, from bin Laden to &#8216;Atiyya, requests (p. 26) that messages be sent to the leadership of AQIM and Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) asking them to coordinate with Yunis al Mauritani (&#8220;Shaykh Yunis&#8221;) in &#8220;whatever he asks of him.&#8221; In particular, bin Laden asks &#8216;Atiyya to &#8220;hint&#8221; to AQIM that they should provide al Mauritani with &#8220;financial support that he might need in the next six months, to the tune of approximately 200,000 euros.&#8221; Bin Laden specifies that al Mauritani should be given a name that doesn&#8217;t divulge his nationality, and asks &#8216;Atiyya to set up &#8220;a secure method of communications and coordination&#8221; between al Mauritani and both AQIM and AQAP. Bin Laden stresses the need for &#8220;the utmost secrecy&#8221; regarding al Mauritani&#8217;s doings, and says that knowledge of his operations should be restricted to AQIM and AQAP&#8217;s leadership.</p>
<p><em><a href="http://www.jihadica.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/SOCOM-2012-0000015-Trans.pdf">Document 15</a>, October 21, 2010</em>. In this letter from bin Laden to &#8216;Atiyya, Abu Yahya al Libi is appointed as &#8216;Atiyya&#8217;s first deputy, and a big part of his mission is providing religious guidance (&#8220;sharia research&#8221;) to both AQIM and Somalia&#8217;s al Shabaab. With respect to AQIM, bin Laden writes (p. 5): &#8220;The brothers in the Islamic Maghreb might experience divisions. To avoid this, the research that you said that you are going to prepare on dealing with the apostates should be sent to them. It should be complete and comprehensive and it should include the opinions of the scholars.&#8221;</p>
<p>Bin Laden also sends a messages to Abu Musab Abd al-Wadud (the head of AQIM) through &#8216;Atiyya, stating that &#8216;Atiyya should add an attached file &#8220;to the files of brother ‘Abd-al-Wadud or you can send it to them [i.e. AQIM] as part of your correspondence to them.&#8221;</p>
<p>Further, bin Laden advises AQIM (p. 11) that &#8220;planting trees helps al mujahedin and gives them cover&#8221; from satellites and spy planes. He notes that trees &#8220;would give al mujahedin the freedom to move around especially if the enemy sends spying aircraft to the area.&#8221; He suggests that they get trees from plantations, &#8220;or they can even create their own plantation.&#8221;</p>
<p><em><a href="http://www.jihadica.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/SOCOM-2012-0000010-Trans.pdf">Document 10</a>, April 26, 2011</em>. In this letter to &#8216;Atiyya, Bin Laden writes about French hostages being kept by AQIM. At the time, France was involved in military operations against Muammar Qaddafi&#8217;s regime in Libya. Bin Laden warns that because the French are involved in this way, French hostages should not be killed because &#8220;the atmosphere after the French standing towards the Libyan people does not condone killing the French, due to what will follow of negative reflections, after it became evident that most of the common people are supporting Sarkozy.&#8221;</p>
<p>Bin Laden advises AQIM to keep the hostages until after the 2012 French elections; and if this isn&#8217;t possible, he wants to exchange half of them, and keep the other half (&#8220;the higher ranking and the more important ones&#8221;). He does not want the negotiations between AQIM and the French government to be public, but he does want the hostage issue to remain a political liability for Sarkozy. AQIM <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/14/us-france-mali-hostages-idUSBRE83D0G020120414">appears</a> to have largely handled the hostages in a manner consistent with bin Laden&#8217;s directives, though obviously it is difficult to ascribe causality to bin Laden&#8217;s letter.</p>
<p><strong>Conclusion</strong></p>
<p>Only a fraction of the Abbottabad documents that U.S. forces captured have been released publicly. However, the limited released material indicates ongoing communication between AQSL and AQIM that goes beyond current implications in the public discourse that we do not know if they were in touch. This communication extended over several years &#8212; 2007 through 2011 &#8212; and survived changes in AQIM&#8217;s leadership and also attrition within AQSL&#8217;s ranks.</p>
<p>There are most definitely ambiguities within this evidence due to the fact that we&#8217;re only seeing a shadow of the overall relationship. For example, we are only seeing one side of the correspondence: in every instance, we do not know the response prompted by the letters that were sent. It is worth noting, though, that nowhere in these documents do we see indications that bin Laden thought AQIM had been unresponsive to him, nor that the length of time it took to communicate precluded effective contact or some form of cooperation between AQIM and AQSL.</p>
<p>Al Qaeda and its various branches and affiliates did not operate as a perfectly hierarchical organization even before bin Laden&#8217;s death. An article that I continue to recommend detailing the relationship the senior leadership had with other entities is Leah Farrall&#8217;s <a href="http://www.cas.umt.edu/phil/documents/HOW_AL_QAEDA_WORKS.pdf">&#8220;How Al Qaeda Works,&#8221;</a> which was published in <em>Foreign Affairs</em> in early 2011. Farrall wrote, &#8220;Due to its dispersed structure, al Qaeda operates as a devolved network hierarchy, in which levels of command authority are not always clear; personal ties between militants carry weight and, at times, transcend the command structure between core, branch, and franchises. For their part, al Qaeda’s core members focus on exercising strategic command and control to ensure the centralization of the organization’s actions and message, rather than directly managing its branch and franchises.”</p>
<p>The Abbottabad correspondence fits well with Farrall&#8217;s framework. One may adopt a minimalist or maximalist interpretation of what the Abbottabad documents mean. On the maximalist side:</p>
<ul>
<li>AQIM was sending situation reports back to AQSL, which may indicate that they sought its strategic guidance or even approval.</li>
<li>Bin Laden was providing significant guidance into how AQIM should fit into al Qaeda&#8217;s plans in other theaters. Al Mauritani, for whom bin Laden was trying to ensure both AQIM and AQAP&#8217;s cooperation, was at the time <a href="http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/archives/2010/10/reflections_on_the_alqaeda_plo.php">preparing a terrorist plot for Europe</a>, news of which would break later that year.</li>
<li>The religious guidance that bin Laden wanted provided to AQIM in Document 15 suggests that he sees AQSL as influential enough to heal potential rifts within the group.</li>
<li>One can argue that the fact the French hostages whom bin Laden wrote about in April 2011 were handled consistent with his advice may indicate his influence over AQIM.</li>
<li>One can argue that Document 11 indicates that communication between AQIM and AQSL may have been relatively fast. The correspondence refers to events that were happening during the past week, which may indicate that AQIM thought AQSL would receive the missive while it was still timely.</li>
</ul>
<p>On the minimalist side:</p>
<ul>
<li>One can point to the language bin Laden used to suggest that he did not consider himself to have a great deal of control over AQIM. For example, in Document 19, rather than just ordering AQIM to provide Mauritani with financial support, he asks &#8216;Atiyya to &#8220;hint&#8221; to AQIM that they should do so.</li>
<li>One can argue that the path of the correspondence indicates that it was likely slow. Bin Laden was communicating with &#8216;Atiyya rather than communicating directly with AQIM, and &#8216;Atiyya may have in turn needed to pass the message through another intermediary.</li>
<li>Further, the indirect nature of the communication may have diminished the sway bin Laden could have over AQIM through the force of his personality.</li>
</ul>
<p><em></em>Of course, when you are seeing only a fraction of a relationship, there will be a great deal of questions about the whole. But the Abbottabad documents are indicative of long-running communication between AQIM and AQSL preceding bin Laden&#8217;s death that goes beyond the public commentary suggesting that we don&#8217;t even know if there are &#8220;ties&#8221; between them. This does not mean the AQIM/AQSL relationship isn&#8217;t murky &#8212; it is &#8212; but our discussion of that murkiness should certainly take note of the data points that are available to us.</p>
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		<title>“Send Lone Wolves to Strike Inside of France”</title>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 17 Jan 2013 20:15:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Daveed Gartenstein-Ross</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://gunpowderandlead.org/?p=2619</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In an article I wrote yesterday for the Globe &#38; Mail, I noted that online jihadists have been inciting attacks against France. One post in this regard, from the Ansar al-Mujahedin Network, was particularly interesting in light of a monograph &#8230; <a href="http://gunpowderandlead.org/2013/01/send-lone-wolves-to-strike-inside-of-france/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In an <a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/commentary/the-wars-in-mali-but-the-danger-is-international/article7408513/">article</a> I wrote yesterday for the <em>Globe &amp; Mail</em>, I noted that online jihadists have been inciting attacks against France. One post in this regard, from the Ansar al-Mujahedin Network, was particularly interesting in light of a <a href="http://www.defenddemocracy.org/stuff/uploads/documents/Small_arms_Report.pdf">monograph</a> I co-authored last year with my G&amp;L colleague Dan Trombly about the tactical and strategic use of firearms by terrorists. One of our conclusions was that &#8220;small arms are quite useful for terrorist organizations. They are among the most tactically flexible weapons for complex operations, and for lone wolf or small group attackers, they are one of the most simple to use and readily available options. For this reason, small arms will continue to be an obvious choice not only for al Qaeda, but also for other terrorist groups that wish to carry out attacks.&#8221;</p>
<p>The post that caught my interest went up on January 13, written by a forum participant calling himself Abu Ubaydah al Masri al Salafi. Entitled &#8220;Advice to Our Brothers in the Islamic Maghreb,&#8221; the post provides a number of pieces of tactical and strategic advice. Some of the advice includes encouraging other jihadis to &#8220;join the army with the goal of killing the largest possible number of French soldiers, and thus weakening the trust between the two sides,&#8221; and capturing the French rather than killing them in order to create an anti-war climate in that country. But given my monograph on firearms, his fifth piece of advice stood out:</p>
<blockquote><p><em>Send lone wolves to France to strike inside of France. It is preferable for the operations to be like Mohammad Merah&#8217;s operation [i.e., the Toulouse shooter]; that is, carried out by gunfire rather than explosives because it takes a long time to prepare explosives and the operation might be uncovered before implementation due to surveillance.</em></p></blockquote>
<p>This passage concisely summarizes precisely why firearms will continue to appeal to terrorists, both individuals and groups, even despite the existence of proliferating options.</p>
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		<title>Welcome to Book Group</title>
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		<comments>http://gunpowderandlead.org/2013/01/welcome-to-book-group/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 13 Jan 2013 00:41:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>caidid</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://gunpowderandlead.org/?p=2599</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Gunpowder &#38; Lead is sponsoring a book group! Here&#8217;s the idea: every 3-4 months, one person in the group (of 6-7 people) will choose the book that everyone will be reading. It can be any book, on any subject, fiction &#8230; <a href="http://gunpowderandlead.org/2013/01/welcome-to-book-group/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Gunpowder &amp; Lead is sponsoring a book group! Here&#8217;s the idea: every 3-4 months, one person in the group (of 6-7 people) will choose the book that everyone will be reading. It can be any book, on any subject, fiction or non-fiction. The idea is that if the books are generally chosen by individuals rather than by consensus, we are more likely to read something we wouldn&#8217;t necessarily choose for ourselves. It&#8217;s a way of expanding our viewpoints. Additionally, it will mean that the responses to each book will be from people with a wide range of expertise on the topic of the selected book, which will give us a variety of perspectives.</p>
<p>Once the book is chosen, we&#8217;ll announce it here so that anyone who wants to read along and participate in the discussion can do so, and we&#8217;ll leave the comment thread of the announcement post open for anyone who wants to discuss anything about the book before the deadline. At the end of the allotted time, everyone in the main book group will write a short response/review which will be posted here on G&amp;L. Following that post, we will host a discussion on Twitter for everyone who has read along.</p>
<p>For our first book group selection, we have chosen <a href="http://twitter.com/NPRInskeep">Steve Inskeep</a>&#8216;s <a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" onMouseOut="al_link_out()" href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/http://www.amazon.com/Instant-City-Life-Death-Karachi/dp/0143122169/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8?ie=UTF8&linkCode=as2&camp=1634&creative=6738&tag=gunlea-20&creativeASIN=http://www.amazon.com/Instant-City-Life-Death-Karachi/dp/0143122169/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8" onMouseOver="al_gen_multi(1, {uk : 'A-http://www.amazon.com/Instant-City-Life-Death-Karachi/dp/0143122169/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8',us : 'A-http://www.amazon.com/Instant-City-Life-Death-Karachi/dp/0143122169/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8',de : 'A-http://www.amazon.com/Instant-City-Life-Death-Karachi/dp/0143122169/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8',es : 'A-http://www.amazon.com/Instant-City-Life-Death-Karachi/dp/0143122169/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8',fr : 'A-http://www.amazon.com/Instant-City-Life-Death-Karachi/dp/0143122169/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8',jp : 'A-http://www.amazon.com/Instant-City-Life-Death-Karachi/dp/0143122169/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8',it : 'A-http://www.amazon.com/Instant-City-Life-Death-Karachi/dp/0143122169/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8',cn : 'A-http://www.amazon.com/Instant-City-Life-Death-Karachi/dp/0143122169/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8',ca : 'A-http://www.amazon.com/Instant-City-Life-Death-Karachi/dp/0143122169/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8'}, 'us', 'default');">Instant City</a>, one of the most frequently mentioned books in our #bestbooks 2012 discussion.</p>
<p><a href="http://gunpowderandlead.org/2013/01/welcome-to-book-group/9781594203152_instantcity_jkf-indd/" rel="attachment wp-att-2610"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-2610" title="9781594203152_InstantCity_JKF.indd" src="http://gunpowderandlead.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/InstantCityInskeep_300dpi.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="456" /></a></p>
<p>The confirmed readers for this round are <a href="http://twitter.com/caidid">me</a>, <a href="http://twitter.com/dianawueger">Diana</a>, and <a href="http://twitter.com/daveedgr">Daveed</a> from G&amp;L, along with <a href="http://twitter.com/rejectionking">Sina Kashefipour</a> &#8211; who first suggested a book group &#8211; <a href="http://twitter.com/johnsonr">Rebecca Johnson</a>, and <a href="http://twitter.com/bareftstratgist">Nathan Finney</a>. We plan to post our reviews and host the discussion on Instant City during the week of February 18-22. I&#8217;m looking forward to a great conversation, and I hope many will take part!</p>
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		<title>Gunfight and Glock: Book Reviews</title>
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		<comments>http://gunpowderandlead.org/2012/12/gunfight-and-glock-book-reviews/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 19 Dec 2012 19:40:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Diana Wueger</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Book Reviews]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[GunsGunsGuns]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Small Arms]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://gunpowderandlead.org/?p=1600</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I’ll be honest, I haven’t been able to bring myself to read much about Sandy Hook. I know roughly what happened, but that’s as far as I can get, because this is such an abominable failure of a society to &#8230; <a href="http://gunpowderandlead.org/2012/12/gunfight-and-glock-book-reviews/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I’ll be honest, I haven’t been able to bring myself to read much about Sandy Hook. I know roughly what happened, but that’s as far as I can get, because this is such an abominable failure of a society to keep its most vulnerable members safe. That’s not just Sandy Hook, of course &#8211; it’s every massacre. And nothing ever happens in the aftermath &#8211; no real efforts to curb gun violence, nothing that expands mental health care &#8211; and <a href="http://www.theonion.com/articles/fuck-everything-nation-reports,30743/">I’m with the Onion here</a>.</p>
<p>But maybe I’m being too cynical and defeatist. Maybe this, this finally, is what will mobilize America to demand change from ourselves and our leadership; to undercut the grip the gun lobby has on politics; to recognize that there is a middle ground between arming everybody and total disarmament. So for those who are getting going on this issue and need some good background reading, and also because G&amp;L is collecting Best Books We Read in 2012 (contribute on Twitter with #bestbooks!), I wanted to post two book reviews/opinions I’ve been sitting on for way too long.</p>
<p>NB: these are snarky reviews, as serious book reviews can be found in other places, and nobody reads serious book reviews, and I actually think Gunfight is worth reading, and if I can convince you to read it by being flip, then it was worth it. But I do not take the issue of gun violence lightly, and I hope this will not be read as making light of the tragedies of the past week/month/year/decades (gun violence is epidemic, and it is vital not to decontextualize any one incident).</p>
<p><strong><a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0393077411/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;tag=gunlea-20&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=0393077411">Gunfight: The Battle Over the Right to Bear Arms In America</a>, by Adam Winkler (2011, W. W. Norton &amp; Co.).</strong></p>
<p>Should I ever be asked to explain the history of America’s relationship with guns, I intend to hand over a copy of Adam Winkler’s outstanding Gunfight. On the surface, Gunfight is the story of the 2008 Supreme Court case <em>District of Columbia v. Heller</em>, which ruled DC’s ban on handguns unconstitutional and settled the question of whether the Second Amendment is an individual right or not. And while I find the term ‘legal thriller’ to be an oxymoron, Winkler gives life to the characters involved in the <em>DC v. Heller</em> case as it worked its way to the Supreme Court. So that’d be reason enough to read Gunfight; the strategic maneuvering around the case is pretty interesting.</p>
<p>But more usefully, Winkler traces the history of the tension between gun control and gun ownership in America, using the 2008 case as a backdrop. He gives a very readable, founding fathers-onward march through America’s weird love affair with guns. He covers the extensive regulations around guns in the colonial and post-colonial periods, providing an alternate (and well-researched) history that undercuts many of the “but the founding fathers said we could have guns!” arguments that seem to still hold water these days. Because it’s not just that the guns of yesteryear were slow to load and broadly inaccurate; they were also locked up most of the time. Likewise out in the Wild West; you gave your guns to the sheriff when you got to town, and you got them back on your way out.</p>
<p>Given the heat the NRA’s taken in the last week, it’s particularly instructive to look at the organization’s history, and Winkler does an excellent job here (and for those with short attention spans, <a href="http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/comment/2012/12/jeffrey-toobin-second-amendment.html">so does Toobin</a>). Once upon a time, the NRA wasn’t the trade association it’s essentially become (okay so technically the National Shooting Sports Foundation is the trade association. But the NRA’s funding comes mainly from gun manufacturers, and the NRA’s lobbying wing is the most active in the industry, and if there’s one thing gun manufacturers want, it’s to sell more guns, which means loosening laws and creating fear that those laws will be tightened ANY MINUTE BUY NOW OBAMA WANTS TO TAKE YOUR GUNS AWAY! It’s&#8230; weird. <a href="http://www.bizjournals.com/pittsburgh/blog/morning-edition/2012/12/gun-sales-up-across-pittsburgh-region.html">And</a> <a href="http://www.wafb.com/story/20377313/gun-sales-up-owners-say-possible-weapons-ban-increasing-sales">really</a> <a href="http://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/local/Gun-Sales-Up-After-CT-Shooting-San-Diego-Control-Restrictions--183793111.html">effective</a>.)</p>
<p>Anyway! Once upon a time! Back in the 1930s! The NRA wasn’t like that. They actually lobbied for gun control. Karl T. Frederick, a past president of the NRA, was a conservationist and a crack shot who once said, “I do not believe in the general promiscuous toting of guns. I think it should be sharply restricted and only under licenses.” (210-211) Madness! And none of the NRA’s advocacy was about the Second Amendment, because it wasn’t seen as a particularly strong argument against gun laws. Ah, the glorious 30s. Except for the Great Depression and the start of World War II, that was a real good decade, I tell you.</p>
<p>And then the 1950s came along (whatever, 1940s, nobody loves you), and the soldiers came home and there were just lots of cheap guns left over after WWII, and while there were purchasing restrictions, they weren’t that onerous, and that’s when proliferation in America really kicked off. And then we had the 1960s, with the social upheavals thereof, and crime started to rise, and people started to arm themselves more for self-defense than for hunting. The NRA’s membership started to shift from hunters and recreational shooters to self-defense-oriented folks.</p>
<p>And then, in 1976, the executive vice president and de facto head of the organization decided to relocate the NRA headquarters out of Washington, DC, and get out of the lobbying business in favor of outdoorsman activities and environmental awareness programs. This did not sit well with the self-defense crowd. Harlon Carter, the head of the NRA’s Institute for Legislative Action, and Neal Knox, who thought the assassination of MLK, Jr. was a government plot to advance gun control, engineered a coup that turned the NRA into the organization that it is today. Oops. Moral of the story: know your bylaws.</p>
<p><strong><a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0307719936/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;tag=gunlea-20&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=0307719936">Glock: The Rise of America’s Gun</a>, by Paul M. Barrett</strong></p>
<p>For my birthday, some very dear friends bought me Paul Barrett’s new book, <em>Glock: The Rise of America’s Gun</em> after we wandered into his talk at Politics &amp; Prose. And I wanted to like it, because hey, birthday present! Books about guns! This has been a winning combination in the past. But unless you care a lot about marketing strategies or are really into reporters’ notebooks, just borrow this one from the library.</p>
<p>Unfortunately for Mr. Barrett, the history of Glock, Inc. doesn’t span centuries, as <em><a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0553384384/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;tag=gunlea-20&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=0553384384">American Rifle</a></em> does, or involve global domination, as <em><a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B004Q7E0YA/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;tag=gunlea-20&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=B004Q7E0YA">The Gun</a></em> does, so there’s just not that much to write about that hasn’t been well-covered elsewhere. Here, I’ll sum up Glock:</p>
<ul>
<li>In the early 1980s, a hard-working Austrian named Gaston Glock comes up with cheap semi-automatic pistol that holds 17 rounds at the same time American law enforcement begins to realize that revolvers are a pain to reload, especially when you’re getting shot at. Smith &amp; Wesson fails to notice that revolvers are on their way out of law enforcement.</li>
<li>Glock hires a really, really good sales guy, Karl Walter. Really Really Good Sales guy is really really good. Boy, is he good. Strippers! Free training! Discounts for law enforcement and Hollywood!</li>
<li>Hard-working Austrian and Really Really Good Sales Guy manage to get their guns in the hands of law enforcement. The rest of the firearms industry, by contrast, twiddles their thumbs and looks sad.</li>
<li>Gun control advocates kick up a big fuss over the magazine size, light trigger pull, alleged undetectableness, whatever else they can find. Gun nuts buy them by the boatload. Some more pouting happens on the part of other manufacturers.</li>
<li>Really Really Good Sales Guy gets fired for being too good. Another sales guy is hired who eventually hires somebody to kill Gaston Glock. Assassination attempt fails. Exeunt.</li>
</ul>
<p>There. That’s the book (okay, maybe there’s more, but I gave up around p200). It’s an interesting story, but it’s not 267 pages worth of interesting, and the writing isn’t particularly compelling. In short, Glock is synonymous with gun in America for the same reason Xerox is both a brand and a verb: good marketing and slow-footed competition. Glock holds this special place in the American psyche simply because it hit the ground running with a novel product and some smart business practices in the 80s; it captured the law enforcement market early in its existence, giving it a way to quickly scale up production and a stamp of approval for other marketing efforts.</p>
<p><em>Glock</em> seems to be the work of a reporter who thought it’d be cool to write about guns and needed an excuse to do some research. And there’s a lot of research. To his credit, Barrett did his homework, and he’s got a lot of facts and figures and dates to report. Oh, and anecdotes. So very many “and then I talked to this other random person” anecdotes. There’s also the irrelevant story of Barrett learning to shoot by&#8230; entering a competition? Okay, whatever. There’s just so much fluff, but I suppose that at 267 pages with wide margins and large font, any editing for fluff would’ve made this too short to be worth publishing as a book.</p>
<p><em>Glock</em> tries to situate itself in the pantheon of Definitive Books About Guns, but it’s better suited to the business section. Pass.</p>
<p>***</p>
<p>I know Americans aren’t a particularly history-oriented bunch, by and large, but the history of gun laws in America is one that needs to read and internalized. Many of the proposals and op-eds I’ve read in the last week are, frankly, rehashes of history. This is not to dismiss them; rather, I simply encourage anybody writing or reading or lobbying or agitating or whatever you’re doing around the effort to curbing gun violence and/or proliferation to do your homework. Start with Gunfight. Skip Glock.</p>
<figure class="wp-caption aligncenter" style="width: 430px"><a href="http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/life_and_entertainment/2012/01/01/hair-trigger-topic.html"><img class=" " title="Gunfight Art" src="http://www.dispatch.com/content/graphics/2012/01/01/2-book-gunfight-art-gh6fdn87-1flag.jpg" alt="" width="420" height="323" /></a><figcaption class="wp-caption-text">PATRICK KASTNER/DISPATCH</figcaption></figure>
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		<title>Why Tom Ricks’s Fox Appearance Was Less Impressive Than You Think</title>
		<link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/GunpowderLead/~3/KLTJZgapOMM/</link>
		<comments>http://gunpowderandlead.org/2012/11/why-tom-rickss-fox-appearance-was-less-impressive-than-you-think/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 27 Nov 2012 20:54:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Daveed Gartenstein-Ross</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Libya]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Media]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Benghazi]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bill James]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Erik Wemple]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fox News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[George Marshall]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jon Scott]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Jon Justice Show]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tom Ricks]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://gunpowderandlead.org/?p=2574</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[You&#8217;ve probably already seen Tom Ricks&#8217;s Fox News appearance from yesterday that has created so much buzz on social media. His buzz-inspiring line came at the end of a short debate about Benghazi, when Ricks said, &#8220;I think the emphasis &#8230; <a href="http://gunpowderandlead.org/2012/11/why-tom-rickss-fox-appearance-was-less-impressive-than-you-think/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>You&#8217;ve probably already seen Tom Ricks&#8217;s Fox News <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/26/fox-news-interview-guest-network-wing-republican-party_n_2192506.html">appearance</a> from yesterday that has created so much buzz on social media. His buzz-inspiring line came at the end of a short debate about Benghazi, when Ricks said, &#8220;I think the emphasis on Benghazi has been extremely political, partly because Fox is operating as the wing of the Republican Party.&#8221; The interview promptly ended after that remark. Since then, Ricks&#8217;s interview has been hailed in many quarters as a minor act of heroism, particularly by liberal commentators and others who simply don&#8217;t like Fox. And Ricks seems to agree, judging from his <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/erik-wemple/post/fox-news-guest-slams-fox/2012/11/26/0fa50b88-37f1-11e2-b01f-5f55b193f58f_blog.ht">comments</a> on the incident to the <em>Washington Post</em>&#8216;s Erik Wemple:</p>
<blockquote><p><em>I also have been thinking a lot about George Marshall, the Army chief of staff during World War II, and one of the heroes of my new book. </em><strong>He got his job by speaking truth to power, and I have been thinking that we all could benefit by following his example as much as we can</strong><em>.</em></p></blockquote>
<blockquote><p><em>After I went off the air I saw some surprised faces in the hallway. One staff person said she thought I had been rude. My feeling was that they asked my opinion and I gave it.</em></p></blockquote>
<p>Put bluntly, Ricks&#8217;s Fox appearance is far less impressive than his supporters believe, and in fact I think it&#8217;s clear that he was out of line if people assess the appearance objectively. To provide some context before I bear out this point, I am speaking as someone who thought Benghazi was overblown as a campaign issue on the Republican side, and <em>did</em> find the coverage overly politicized. Don&#8217;t just take my word for this: <a href="http://www.1041thetruth.com/podcast/justiceondemand/175636271.html">this appearance</a> on a conservative talk radio show, <em>The Jon Justice Show</em>, does a fairly good job of illustrating where I stood on the issue. So this critique isn&#8217;t the product of sour grapes by someone who disagrees about Benghazi. But describing Fox as a &#8220;wing of the Republican Party&#8221; during the course of the interview is weak stuff.</p>
<p><em>The first reason: it&#8217;s nothing more than an ad hominem attack</em>. <em></em>Ad hominem attacks are recognized as logical fallacies because they distract from the argument, instead turning attention to the person making the argument. But someone&#8217;s bad character, lack of intelligence, etc. does not speak to the truth or falsehood of their argument. As Bill James, the idol of baseball nerds everywhere, has <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0385514646/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=0385514646&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=daveegarter0e-20">said</a>, &#8220;If an undergraduate with a C average can show by clear and convincing evidence that leading scientists are wrong about something, the scientists will not say, or should not say, &#8216;Who are you to argue with Jonas Salk?&#8217; What counts is evidence, not the authority of the person making the claim.&#8221;</p>
<p>So let&#8217;s turn this particular case around. What if Jon Scott, the anchor, had said to Ricks: &#8220;Of course you&#8217;d take that position, since you&#8217;re a Democrat&#8221;? Is there any way in which that would be a proper question or line of argument? Virtually nobody, other than the most partisan observers, would think that was proper, precisely because it is attacking his character and motivation. But that is essentially what Ricks was doing to Fox. Rather than contributing to a conservations, ad hominem attacks are conversation-enders.</p>
<p>Incidentally, this makes the early termination of Ricks&#8217;s interview utterly unsurprising. Wemple <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/erik-wemple/post/fox-news-guest-slams-fox/2012/11/26/0fa50b88-37f1-11e2-b01f-5f55b193f58f_blog.ht">writes</a>, in his blog, &#8220;What happens when you agree to come on Fox News and then proceed to hammer the network for serving as a &#8216;wing of the Republican Party?&#8217; Answer: You don’t stay on the air too long.&#8221; Wemple thus implies that this is either surprising or sinister. But come on: it&#8217;s really not. Try going on MSNBC and slamming them as a wing of the Democratic party, or going on Al Jazeera and hammering them for serving Qatari state interests. You&#8217;re probably not going to stay on the air too long there, either.</p>
<p><em>The second reason: Ricks&#8217;s attack on Fox is hypocritical</em>. There are two layers to this hypocrisy. The first is that, though Ricks is no shill, he hasn&#8217;t made a habit of insulting every media outlet whose bias shows through in a segment. For example, Ricks utterly <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LOQn0wED88Q">confounded</a> Keith Olbermann during Olbermann&#8217;s MSNBC days, when the anchor had brought Ricks on with the expectation that he would slam John Boehner. But Ricks got through the entire segment without insulting either the network or Olbermann: instead, he respectfully but firmly refuted Olbermann&#8217;s extremely biased presentation of facts. Ricks defended his practice of insulting Fox by saying that &#8220;they asked my opinion and I gave it.&#8221; Then why not similarly insult MSNBC? He certainly had time to do so. If Ricks is going to make a practice of &#8220;speaking truth to power&#8221; by insulting networks who bring him on, he should be sure to insult his hosts whenever he senses bias.</p>
<p>I might even respect, in some perverse way, a public commentator who habitually insulted networks and hosts of all political stripes during appearances. I still wouldn&#8217;t find it particularly <em>useful</em>: not only would doing so still constitute needless ad hominem attacks, but also it&#8217;s not like we need a Tom Ricks on the air to know that Fox skews conservative in its coverage and MSNBC liberal. But, anyway, the available evidence suggests that while Ricks is not a shill for one political party, he also isn&#8217;t the guy who will insult all comers.</p>
<p>The second layer to Ricks&#8217;s hypocrisy: why did he appear on Fox in the first place, if he has so little respect for the network? I mean, you can&#8217;t avoid insulting the network when confronted with a line of questioning with which you disagree, but they&#8217;re good enough to appear on to pimp your new book?</p>
<p><em>Third, does Fox News represent &#8220;power&#8221;?</em> You might have noticed that in the last election the Democrats won the presidency and retained the Senate. I think Ricks&#8217;s statement that Fox is a wing of the Republican party is hyperbolic, just as it would be hyperbolic to call MSNBC a wing of the Democratic party. But even if the relationship were what Ricks claims, isn&#8217;t there more of a need for a network that will consistently try to hold the party in power accountable rather than a network that will tend to defend the party in power? In other words, isn&#8217;t Ricks&#8217;s calculus backward? Wouldn&#8217;t Fox have represented &#8220;power&#8221; during the eight years of the Bush administration, and wouldn&#8217;t MSNBC now be the network representative of &#8220;power&#8221;?</p>
<p>Further, <em>it isn&#8217;t at all clear that the administration is blameless in the Benghazi fiasco</em>. I tended to avoid this issue during the election precisely because the reporting was far too politicized for me to get a good sense of what had actually gone down. But to consign Benghazi to being an issue that only a wing of the Republican party might care about seems awfully incurious for a former journalist.</p>
<p><em>Fourth, rather than &#8220;speaking truth to power,&#8221; Ricks seems to be &#8220;kicking the fat kid.&#8221;</em> I have always liked the idea of speaking truth to power, but in practice often (though not always) find that those claiming to do this are in fact <em>exercising</em> power by extending discursive norms in a direction that delegitimizes their opponent&#8217;s opinion without actually refuting it. Let&#8217;s face it: among liberal intelligentsia, Fox is the proverbial fat kid, and no news organ is more consistently mocked and disrespected. Ricks&#8217;s comments were sure to find a ready audience within the preexisting and rather widespread sentiments that hold Fox, and the viewpoints it represents, to be illegitimate in some fundamental way. For a guy like Ricks, Fox is a very easy target. Sure, his segment gets cut short, but he then gets to boast about how he spoke truth to power and spend the next few days basking as a minor hero.</p>
<p>You may enjoy what Ricks did. But we shouldn&#8217;t pretend it&#8217;s particularly courageous, nor should we pretend that it has in some way <em>enhanced</em> the public sphere.</p>
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		<title>Of Drones &amp; Drugs</title>
		<link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/GunpowderLead/~3/7oIyH18e15c/</link>
		<comments>http://gunpowderandlead.org/2012/11/of-drones-drugs/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 21 Nov 2012 19:57:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Drunken Predator Drone</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Terrorism]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://gunpowderandlead.org/?p=2568</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[So I lobbed two posts on Twitter yesterday morning, pertaining first to drones and then to drugs, that probably weren&#8217;t a good fit for the 140-character format. In short, I implied that using UAVs for counternarcotics implied the GWOT had &#8230; <a href="http://gunpowderandlead.org/2012/11/of-drones-drugs/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>So I lobbed two posts on Twitter yesterday morning, pertaining first to <a title="drones" href="https://twitter.com/drunkenpredator/status/270890556618588160">drones</a> and then to <a title="drugs" href="https://twitter.com/drunkenpredator/status/270891786103304192">drugs</a>, that probably weren&#8217;t a good fit for the 140-character format. In short, I implied that using UAVs for counternarcotics implied the GWOT had entered a &#8220;doing whatever the fuck we want&#8221; phase, and that the DEA was doing a better job collecting HUMINT than some other alphabet agencies. I figured I&#8217;d try to draw out the logic (or lack thereof) underpinning them.</p>
<p>As <a title="Spencer Ackerman" href="https://twitter.com/attackerman">Spencer Ackerman</a> rightly pointed out, UAVs are in <a title="no way new to the drug war" href="http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2011/04/navy-upgrades-its-spying-drug-sniffing-robot-copter/">no way new to the drug war</a>. The Department of Homeland Security employs Global Hawks, Predators and Reapers over our land borders, and the Navy is slowly deploying Fire Scouts for drug interdiction at sea. Closer to shore, the Coast Guard and Customs &amp; Border Protection jointly operate a Reaper variant called the <a title="MQ-9 Guardian" href="http://www.navytimes.com/news/2011/03/coast-guard-unmanned-aerial-systems-enlisted-032611/">MQ-9 Guardian</a>, and <a title="testing out the smaller Scan Eagle" href="http://www.uscg.mil/acquisition/uas/">testing out the smaller Scan Eagle</a>. Police in Miami (a city boasting at least a passing acquaintance with drug trafficking) <a title="continues to field-test" href="https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2012/04/miami-dade-pd-releases-information-about-its-drone-program-will-faa-follow-suit">continue to field-test</a> Honeywell&#8217;s RQ-16 T-Hawk drone.</p>
<p>What we have not seen- yet- is the employment of <em>armed</em> UAS against drug traffickers, solely vis-à-vis their being drug traffickers. But I think that line got a little blurrier last week, when the U.S Treasury Department designated Taliban leader and Helmand province &#8220;shadow governor&#8221; Mullah Naim Barich <a title="as a &quot;drug kingpin" href="http://www.isaf.nato.int/article/isaf-releases/taliban-leader-designated-as-drug-kingpin-nov-15.html">as a drug kingpin</a>. Not that it&#8217;s not already a fuzzy distinction to begin with. We&#8217;re spending billions both on a &#8220;war on drugs&#8221; and a &#8220;war on terror,&#8221; although both activities are necessarily a criminal matter as well.</p>
<p>Looking at the post-9/11 Authorization for the Use of Military Force (<a title="AUMF" href="http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/PLAW-107publ40/html/PLAW-107publ40.htm">AUMF</a>) and <a title="NSPD-9" href="http://www.fas.org/irp/offdocs/nspd/nspd-9.htm">NSPD-9</a>, the invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan, and our covert operations in Yemen, Pakistan, Somalia and other garden spots, it&#8217;s fair to say we came down pretty hard on the &#8220;war&#8221; side of the argument with terrorism. So designating a major Taliban fighter as a drug kingpin seems, at first blush, to be icing on the cake; the thought process being that while we earnestly endeavor to shuffle him off the mortal coil, we might also be able to slow down his <a title="IRGC-assisted drug pipeline into Iran" href="http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2012/11/us_adds_taliban_shad.php">IRGC-assisted drug pipeline into Iran. </a></p>
<p>The Taliban aren&#8217;t the only terror organization linked with drug trafficking. Hezbollah has <a title="worked closely to launder money and move narcotics" href="http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Politics/2012/Jun-28/178541-us-names-lebanese-in-hezbollah-drug-ring.ashx#axzz2CnlUuN8t">worked closely to launder money and move narcotics</a> with criminal organizations in Colombia and Venezuela, not to mention the notorious Zetas in Mexico. Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) even got caught <a title="trying to move cocaine" href="http://articles.latimes.com/2009/dec/19/nation/la-na-al-qaeda-cocaine19-2009dec19">trying to move cocaine</a> through the Sahara into western Europe. I&#8217;m not really surprising anybody by saying that when you hunt terrorists, you stand a good chance of disrupting narcotics trafficking.</p>
<p>But since we&#8217;re now hunting Taliban who wear the dual hats of drug kingpin and military/intelligence target,  I think the day may not be far off when civilian law enforcement agencies like the DEA find themselves consistently closer to the kill/capture missions traditionally associated with JSOC and drones. It&#8217;d already be tough to tell a DEA <a title="Foreign-deployed Assistance &amp; Support Team" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Burning_hashish_seized_in_Operation_Albatross.jpg">Foreign-deployed Assistance &amp; Support Team</a> (FAST) agent from a JSOC operator. So I think we will be entering the &#8220;doing whatever the fuck we want&#8221; phase when the blurry line between terrorists and drug traffickers is used to blur the authorities by which we pursue them. Specifically, it would be tempting to play up a drug lord&#8217;s terrorist bonafides as a way of justifying a <a title="Title 50" href="http://www.fas.org/irp/offdocs/laws/usc50.html">Title 50</a> <a title="Griffin" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AGM-175_Griffin">Griffin</a> through his car door, instead of risking lives on a mission to haul his ass in for a costly and uncertain federal trial.</p>
<p>The DEA says that&#8217;s not the case, and <a title="insisted to TIME last year" href="http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2087220,00.html">insisted to TIME last year</a> that their priority is drugs, not terrorists. But as the legacy GWOT footprint lightens, it&#8217;s the DEA who&#8217;s out <a title="building FOBs and shooting people" href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/25/world/americas/dea-agents-kills-suspected-smuggler-in-honduran-drug-raid.html">building FOBs and shooting people</a> in unpleasant corners of the world. Its Special Operations Division quietly runs a Terrorism Investigations Unit, or the 960a Group, dedicated to chasing narcoterrorist bad guys across the globe. And sure, it&#8217;s still primarily a domestic law enforcement agency, but the DEA, through its Office of National Security Intelligence, is a also a <a title="member of the IC" href="http://www.dni.gov/index.php/intelligence-community/members-of-the-ic#doj">full-fledged member of the IC</a>, right alongside Air Force Intelligence and the CIA.</p>
<p>My point in all this is that by also designating a Taliban chief a &#8220;drug kingpin,&#8221; the already-close nexus between overseas American civilian law enforcement and some particularly pointy military/IC/contractor entities just got a little closer. And- as seen in that TIME story above- there&#8217;s some real doubts about the efficacy of prosecuting some of these international bad guys. So over the next year or so, I would not be surprised to see more mentions of DEA in the same breath as some of the more imaginative interpretations of &#8220;traditional military activity,&#8221; or flat-out Title 50 hijinks.*</p>
<p>*This will all be highly classified, but we&#8217;ll hear about a DEA success story, which will inevitably piss off someone at the CIA, who will leak everything to David Ignatius.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>Petraeus and Schadenfreude</title>
		<link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/GunpowderLead/~3/OCHh1D5b95w/</link>
		<comments>http://gunpowderandlead.org/2012/11/petraeus-and-schadenfreude/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 10 Nov 2012 23:55:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Daveed Gartenstein-Ross</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://gunpowderandlead.org/?p=2564</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Back in 2006, I was asked to deliver a series of lectures at Tyndale University College and Seminary in Toronto. At the time, the Ted Haggard scandal had just become big news in the U.S. Haggard was the head pastor &#8230; <a href="http://gunpowderandlead.org/2012/11/petraeus-and-schadenfreude/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Back in 2006, I was asked to deliver a series of lectures at Tyndale University College and Seminary in Toronto. At the time, the Ted Haggard scandal had just become big news in the U.S. Haggard was the head pastor at the New Life megachurch in Colorado, one of the U.S.&#8217;s most prominent evangelicals &#8212; and, it turns out, he had <a href="http://articles.cnn.com/2009-01-29/us/lkl.ted.haggard_1_ted-haggard-head-pastor-church-staff-member?_s=PM:US">paid a male prostitute for sex</a> over a three-year period and also used methamphetamine in front of him. One of the professors at Tyndale engaged me in conversation about the Haggard scandal, and noted his advice to other Christians (the professor&#8217;s advice, not Haggard&#8217;s): when you see a public figure engulfed in a humiliating scandal, imagine that your own worst sins and darkest secrets were being broadcast to the entire world. This was not an argument for lack of accountability, but rather an argument for compassion, humility, and realization of our own weaknesses.</p>
<p>I thought of this conversation when news of David Petraeus&#8217;s <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/OTUS/david-petraeus-affair-fbi-probe-revealed-affair-biographer/story?id=17689348#.UJ7eMYb4KNU">own scandal</a> broke. My impression about some of the public reaction to this scandal was similar to that of Andrew Exum, who <a href="https://twitter.com/abumuqawama/status/267016476651835392">wrote</a> on Twitter: &#8220;My feed right now is filled with schadenfreude, crass comments, and general idiocy. Apparently there are axes in need of grinding out there.&#8221; Similarly, Mark Jacobsen <a href="http://www.buildingpeace.net/2012/11/recovering-our-leaders-as-human-beings.html">noted</a> &#8212; in the most perceptive piece I&#8217;ve seen about the Petraeus scandal &#8212; that he was &#8220;already weary from the onslaught of bitter political commentary.&#8221; Jacobsen wrote that, &#8220;with the first cracks defacing his legacy,&#8221; Petraeus&#8217;s detractors &#8220;are thrilled to continue the job, tearing stone from stone and demolishing everything we thought we knew about the man and his accomplishments.&#8221;</p>
<p>Jacobsen emphasized how in many ways, the story of Petraeus&#8217;s fall from grace is the story of the human condition. &#8220;In our desperation to find heroes, we gloss over faults and overemphasize virtues,&#8221; he wrote. In that way, &#8220;we establish impossible expectations, which are certain to come crashing down around us later.&#8221; I think the creation of impossible expectations is one part of the picture; the other part is the glee with which we then tear down our heroes (or, if not heroes, our prominent public figures) once the cracks in their armor become evident.</p>
<p>Schadenfreude is an emotion I rarely feel, and generally find it highly distasteful in others. I am not touting my own virtues here: I have more than enough faults to go around. But it is in large part my awareness of my own flaws that makes me feel schadenfreude so rarely, and find it to be such an ugly, human emotion. To be sure, part of it is the political climate in which we live. In a very good piece about the 2012 election, Matt Taibbi <a href="http://m.rollingstone.com/entry/view/id/33205/pn/all/p/0/?KSID=07b4ef1106484ef1aedb84128468feb6&amp;ints_viewed=1">noted</a> that &#8220;we should be confident that whoever wins has our collective best interests at heart, even if we don&#8217;t agree with his or her ideology, the same way we reflexively assume that the pilot of any plane we board doesn&#8217;t want to fly us into a mountain.&#8221; Yet that basic confidence has eroded. &#8220;People today on both sides are genuinely terrified of a wrong outcome in this election,&#8221; Taibbi wrote. &#8220;They&#8217;ve been whipped into a state of panic – people everywhere are freaking out and muttering to themselves and firing off vitriolic emails.&#8221; In this climate, our political foes are seen as less than human, and we rejoice at their humiliation, whether it is Bill Clinton, Larry Craig, Ted Haggard, Anthony Weiner. Sometimes we cheer not only their humiliation, but also their deaths, as could be seen earlier this year in Matthew Yglesias&#8217;s <a href="http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/speaking-ill-of-the-dead/">thoroughly disgusting remarks</a> when conservative figure Andrew Breitbart passed away.</p>
<p>There is something at play beyond the political climate, though. I think there is something about men like Petraeus &#8212; a war hero, a four-star general, a Princeton Ph.D. &#8212; that makes others feel a bit smaller, like their own lives do not measure up. When they fail, our reaction is: <em>you aren&#8217;t so special after all</em>. We are delighted to learn that our heroes aren&#8217;t too different from us after all, and in some ways may be <em>even worse</em> than we are.</p>
<p>But that is exactly the point: they <em>aren&#8217;t</em> too different from us. Humans are capable of great things, but there is also something inherently flawed and broken in the human condition, something that is prone to straying and spectacularly failing. And that is just as true of the people who gloat at the fall from grace of Petraeus, or Weiner, or Craig, or Haggard, as it is of the men who stand at the center of these scandals.</p>
<p>At the end of the day, the advice I got at Tyndale in 2006 is the best thing one could have in mind about scandals like these. We should all imagine that our own worst flaws and failings are on display before the world, just as Petraeus&#8217;s now are. Yes, let&#8217;s have accountability when something like this occurs. Petraeus absolutely should have resigned, and there is a good chance that this story will look even worse as more information trickles out. But everyone could do with less schadenfreude, less pure joy when the heroes that we built up fall far short of the impossible standards to which we would like to hold them.</p>
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