Gus FX

Gus FX

I did want to post the two screen shots of how the 4H Breakout did last week on the USDJPY and GBPJPY for those who traded it:

Well right off the bat the USDJPY would have been a no trade, but the GBPJPY would have reaped a profit, even with the false short you would have made profit all the way until Take Profit level 3.

I hope whoever traded this made some nice pips, but I was out for the month. I will be trading the 10.1 Nanningbob system with the start of the new year and will hopefully have the EA that Steve Hopwood is working on right now. Cannot wait to see what comes of that great system and will keep reporting on it.

Hope everyone has a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!

Gus FX

Here are two screen shots of the GBPJPY and USDJPY 4H charts with the MondayH4Box indicator attached.

The USDJPY would have netted 20 pips, before it got stopped out using the breakeven at the TP3 and the GBPJPY got 98 pips before it retraced. Both pairs gave a nice amount of pips for barely any effort, which is why I love using this system so much.

Hope you all have a great weekend, see you on Sunday for the open of the markets.

Gus

Through many different strategies, Bob ended up at what I think is his greatest work the 10.0 and 10.1 trend, range, and counter trend system. I have already mentioned his system before on here when I talked about changing my trading hours and his 4H CTR EA. The last few weeks have been amazing trading all three system and the profits have been coming in. The EA for the 10.0 system work great on the 1H and 4H charts I have the FXStat.com analysis to show the results below.

While the 1H has been performing better than the 4H, there are two big differences between the two of them. The 4H is only tested on four currency pairs, while the 1H is tested on 8 pairs, not only that but when looking at the draw down you have to notice how much higher it is on the 1H than the 4H. Due to this draw down difference I have stuck to the 4H CTR EA and just running it completely on automatic.

Beyond the CTR Expert Adviser, we look at the 10.1 trading system, which is based primarily on 4H and Daily charts. I have talked a little about the 10.1 system before as I mentioned earlier in, 10.1 first looks. So far it still looks extremely profitable and I think it is a system that should fit in almost any type of market condition. Below you can see some screenshots relating to the system:

Black dots are daily support

Orange dots are 4H S/R

Black and Orange lines S1 and R1 are set by Squalou`s indicator

Above are screen shots of the AUDNZD and EURUSD on the 4H and Daily charts. They both show nice examples of breaking orange and black dots and also the red and black lines.

I will not go into exactly how the system works, since it is an adaptive system and a lot of additions are done over at its main thread on ForexFactory.com where I recommend everyone to join in on the conversation.

I hope you all get a look at this system, it has been working great for me so far, and once I go live I will have FXStats page to report all the details, since I am still paper trading it.

Right now I am looking first at the Daily chart then seeing if the 4H agrees with the trend, afterwards I overlook at the news just to see if anything big is coming out that day such as bailout plans, unemployment numbers, etc. Once I go through that and I feel like the S/R lines make sense to me I will set a pending buy or sell at the first D1 line. Right now I managing the trades with the MPTM that Steve coded and can be downloaded from his thread at ForexFactory.com and can also be downloaded from any of Nanningbob`s threads.

That is the basic rule of thumb for how I am looking at this system, any questions please drop a comment and ask. I enjoy more than anything interacting with people so don’t be afraid we must all learn somehow.

Good luck trading,

Gus FX

Thanks to some people from ForexFactory I have started to trade daily and weekly charts, this will let me focus more on the trend, rather than just scalping through the day. With the help from Bob over at the 10.0 Trend Thread they have come up with a great system, which could not be done without the help of Scalou`s Support/Resistance indicator which is the masterpiece that makes it all work. The indicator actually shows daily support/resistance lines and changes them from day to day. On the template we can also see dotted lines which show the 4H support/resistance levels, this brings another added signal on when to buy and exit.

The best part of the system is that since we are trading on daily charts we can really just look at charts 3 times a day and not worry about missing a lot of information. Below we can see a screenshot of the EUR/USD and how well it works on trending markets.

The purple line shows the three candles from November 14 until today, the signal to sell started the black line, which on Monday morning was the D1 Support line. So we would have entered at 1.36528 and would have made a nice amount of pips. The idea would’ve have been to exit and the next support line at 1.34833 or could have put the MPTM (Multi Purpose Trade Manager) expert advisor to break even at 40 pips and keep the ball rolling. If you still where in the trade it would be around 180 pip profit so far and I think it could still go a little further.

The big reason I love this system and the higher time frames is due to the fact that I don’t have to be up at 3am to trade, especially since I am in Central Standard Time. I can now focus on new trading ideas rather than being sleep deprived all day. With daily time frames I can check my charts before going to sleep, when I wake up and normally middle of the day.

I will keep updating on this system as it progresses and highly recommend every one to pass by the thread over at ForexFactory to get all the new details as they develop on a daily basis.

Gus FX

We still have to keep an eye on the the EU Summit and what more details they release on the debt deal. The EU summit in Brussels when Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi presented a plan of economic reforms in reply to the EU ultimatum demanding swift action to boost growth and reduce Italy’s huge public debt. Greece will be under close supervision while implementing the required reforms and in turn the bailout deal to Greece will wave off 50% ofGreece’s bond debt to banks. Will this dramatic week be a turning point for the EU economy and how will this affect global markets? I am still not sure how I feel about the debt deal, but the markets will tell use what really we should think.

Top 10 events that I see coming up this week:

1. Australian rate decision: Tuesday, 3:30. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) can slash the rates to 4.50% after leaving them unchanged for a very long time. The slower rise in prices and the global weakness point to a cut, although the eventful week and the uncertainty can cause Glenn Stevens and his colleagues to leave rates unchanged at 4.75%. This will definitely be an exciting event.

2. US ISM Manufacturing PMI: Tuesday, 14:00. U.S. Manufacturing PMI lifted itself further from the 50 point line in September reaching 51.6, indicating growing economic activity in the manufacturing sector. This reading was better than the 50.5 predicted and the 50.6 reading in the previous month. An increase to 52.4 is forecasted now.

3. US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: Wednesday, 12:15. The private-sector job market added 91,000 positions in September following 83,000 rise in August. Small businesses showed the biggest increase. This reading was well above the 76,000 increase predicted. A further increase of 102,000 is expected now. Note that this isn’t always directly correlated to the Non-Farm Payrolls,, but still rocks the markets.

4. US FOMC Statement: Wednesday, 16:30, followed by a press conference at 18:15. The last US FOMC statement included the announcement of the $400 billion twist, and indicated modest economic growth forecasts with ongoing difficulties in the job market. The FOMC committee expects growth will pick-up in the following quarters although unemployment will be reduced only gradually. No new policy changes are expected now, so the focus remains on the economic forecasts, which can improve with the recent improvements in the US economy. For the first time since June, the statement will be followed by a press conference by Ben Bernanke. Questions by reports could trigger interesting outcomes.

5. New Zealand employment data: Wednesday, 21:45. The New Zealand employment market remained unchanged in June 2011 quarter. No new jobs were created and unemployment rate was maintained at 6.5%. But the number of people employed rose by 1,000. NZ economy is expected to add 0.6% jobs in the September quarter and Unemployment rate is predicted to drop to 6.4%.

6. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. Last week initial jobless claims decreased 2,000 to 402,000 while a bigger drop to 400,000 was expected. Nevertheless the readings are still high and need to drop below the 400,000 to enable a positive change in the job market. Republicans failed President Barack Obama’s $447 billion plan to boost employment but ongoing efforts are made to tackle this issue. A small increase to 403,000 is forecasted now.

7. Euro-Zone rate decision: Thursday, 12:45, followed by a press conference at 13:30.  Mario Draghi’s unfortunate first 7ecision will likely be to lower the rates by 0.25%. This was discussed in Trichet’s last meeting but didn’t materialize. With deteriorating economic conditions in both core and peripheral countries, the ECB can help growth by lowering the rates. A 50bp cut would be more appropriate, Draghi will not want to be seen as being loose on inflation. Italy is known for looser monetary policy, and Draghi will likely want to avoid this stigma. The euro will move on the words of the new president in the press conference. If forecasts remain depressing, more falls are likely. If forecasts will remain stable, the euro could stabilize and even 8ise.

8. US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Thursday, 14:00.U.S. non-manufacturing PMI slightly dropped to 53.0 in September from 53.3 in August in line with predictions indicating a slower growth in prices of non-manufacturing industries. A rise to 54.1 is expected. This is the largest sector in the US, and stronger growth here will raise expectations for the Non-Farm Payrolls.

9. Canadian employment data: Friday, 11:00. The Canadian job market added 61,000 full time positions in September pushing the unemployment rate down 0.2% to 7.1 indicating an improvement in the job market conditions. An addition of 20,300 jobs is expected but unemployment claims are predicted to rise to 7.2%.

10. US Non-Farm Employment Change and US Unemployment Rate: Friday, 12:30. The US created 103,000 new jobs in September well above the 55,000 expected but unemployment rate remained unchanged at 9.1%. Nevertheless, monthly employment figures tend to be  volatile and should not be followed meticulously each month, a broader look indicates improvement in the job market. The US non-farm sector is expected to add 100,000 jobs this time and the unemployment rate will probably remain unchanged at 9.1%.

I have kept all times GMT to make it easy for everyone to follow.

Gus FX

We can see the GBP/JPY and USD/JPY have intense spikes of over 400 pips each, hopefully you had some buy orders in. I will stay away from the yen for now, until this all calms down.The intervention from the BOJ has also caused the EURUSD to drop, with the dollar appreciating against the yen and getting a ncie boost before the London markets open.

Should be a very interesting week for the markets this week, lets see how this all turns out.

Gus FX

So right now I have found a great EA (expert adviser) from Bob over at Forex Factory. I have always been a fan of Bob, since I have used his systems many times before, but I think he really has something special now. His new system is called NB 10.0, I have been testing it for over a month now and must say I am impressed. The thread over at Forex Factory is split into three different sections covering the trend, range and counter trend sections, NB 10.0 Trend. That is the link to the main section of the thread and where all the instructions are located.

Below is a quick screen shot of the 4H CTR Both, which has been my favorite EA of the bunch so far.

Here is a link over to my FXStat.com profile which has live updates from the demo account running the 4H CTR EA.

http://www.fxstat.com/performances/view/4H_CTR_Both-7922

I will keep everyone updated on my progress with this, but highly recommend everyone to pass by and take a look over at ForexFactory.com

I am running it on a live account with limited lots, and will put my FXStat.com for it soon. I also have the 1H CTR running on another demo, and while it has been more profitable the drawdown has been greater. So I will use the 4H live for now and see how the 1H performs over the next month before I decide to go live with it.

Again thank you so much to NanningBob for all his effort in making this EA and strategy.

Thanks,

Gus FX