<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?>
<!--Generated by Squarespace Site Server v4.1.2 (http://www.squarespace.com/) on Thu, 01 May 2008 09:13:03 GMT--><rss xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/" xmlns:wfw="http://wellformedweb.org/CommentAPI/" xmlns:itunes="http://www.itunes.com/dtds/podcast-1.0.dtd" xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" version="2.0"><channel><title>GW Discourse's World Watch Blog</title><link>http://www.gwdiscourse.com/worldwatchblog/</link><description></description><copyright></copyright><language>en-US</language><generator>Squarespace Site Server v4.1.2 (http://www.squarespace.com/)</generator><item><title>Syria's Plans Exposed</title><dc:creator>Daniel Rozenson</dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 01 May 2008 06:56:56 +0000</pubDate><link>http://www.gwdiscourse.com/worldwatchblog/2008/5/1/syrias-plans-exposed.html</link><guid isPermaLink="false">133378:1243996:1802166</guid><description><![CDATA[<p>I took great pains last year to comment here on the Israeli airstrike in Syria that destroyed some mystery building. And by late October, there was already a consensus that this may have been a clandestine nuclear weapons facility. Well it all comes out now: last week Congress was briefed on the site that was hit. They were presented with what amounts to a powerpoint presentation explaining the facility and its similarities with the Yongbyon North Korean reactor. I'm not an expert on nuclear facilities, but this just seems like too much. And this is only the de-classified intelligence provided by the US government. I'm sure the Israelis have more, and probably other neighboring countries. I find it humorous in a dark way that the IAEA has attempted to act relevant in the matter by screaming that it should have been privy to the intelligence. Yet what would they have done? The Syrians and the Koreans still deny any nuclear cooperation, so what makes Mohammed El-Baradei think that he would convince Kim Jong-Il to make an about-face? In any case, below is the video that was presented to Congress last week.</p>
<embed src="http://www.veoh.com/videodetails2.swf?player=videodetailsembedded&type=v&permalinkId=v7050611ztAGtFDJ&id=anonymous" allowFullScreen="true" width="405" height="328.5" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer"></embed><br />]]></description><wfw:commentRss>http://www.gwdiscourse.com/worldwatchblog/rss-comments-entry-1802166.xml</wfw:commentRss></item><item><title>I Called It</title><dc:creator>Daniel Rozenson</dc:creator><pubDate>Sat, 26 Apr 2008 22:10:08 +0000</pubDate><link>http://www.gwdiscourse.com/worldwatchblog/2008/4/26/i-called-it.html</link><guid isPermaLink="false">133378:1243996:1791394</guid><description><![CDATA[<p>In my post below, I made the case by reading between the lines of Khaled Meshaal's statement regarding Hamas's new truce offer that they were making a dishonest play at the Israelis by luring them into a rearmament period. Well now Meshaal has made it perfectly clear that Hamas is not interested in moderation; they have only gotten more clever in their approach to destroying Israel:</p><blockquote><p><span class="t13">Hamas' political leader Khaled Meshal on Saturday said the Palestinian militant group would accept an Egyptian-mediated cease-fire with Israel but it would only be a &quot;tactic&quot; in the group's conflict with Israel. <br /><br />&quot;It is a tactic in conducting the struggle - It is normal for any resistance that operates in its people's interest... to sometimes escalate, other times retreat a bit,&quot; Meshal said in an interview with pan-Arab Al-Jazeera television.</span></p></blockquote>]]></description><wfw:commentRss>http://www.gwdiscourse.com/worldwatchblog/rss-comments-entry-1791394.xml</wfw:commentRss></item><item><title>Carter Delivers!</title><category>Mideast</category><dc:creator>Daniel Rozenson</dc:creator><pubDate>Mon, 21 Apr 2008 17:02:45 +0000</pubDate><link>http://www.gwdiscourse.com/worldwatchblog/2008/4/21/carter-delivers.html</link><guid isPermaLink="false">133378:1243996:1777821</guid><description><![CDATA[<p>Jimmy Carter is a miracle worker! After visiting with Hamas last week, the terrorist organization has <a class="offsite-link-inline" href="http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080421/ap_on_re_mi_ea/syria_hamas_israel" target="_blank">offered Israel a 10-year truce</a> (in Arabic, <em>hudna</em>) if it should withdraw from all lands it seized in 1967. Hooray! Peace is at hand! (The AP article does not specify whether this includes the Golan Heights taken from Syria, but one assumes so.) </p><p>In reality, the Palestinians have only demonstrated once again their unmatched&nbsp;ability to play to the media. Those with short attention spans&nbsp;for the conflict and little understanding of its past may forget that this is neither a new offer from Hamas nor any sign of moderation.&nbsp;In January 2004, senior Hamas leader Abdel Aziz Rantissi offered the same deal with the explanation that it would be &quot;<strong>difficult to liberate all our land at this stage</strong>; the <em>hudna</em> would however not signal a recognition of the state of Israel.&quot; (Emphasis added.)&nbsp;The <em>hudna</em> as used by the Palestinians is not a peaceful gesture; it is a strategic move. By binding the Israelis from destroying its terrorist infrastructure for 10 years, Hamas is able to continue importing arms from Iran and training its fighters there. Then, when the time is right, the <em>hudna</em> -- if it has even been enforced -- can be broken off and Hamas will be in a better position to inflict damage on Israel.</p><p>Today we see the same discernible sentiments from the Hamas leadership. The AP article says this about the offer from Hamas head Khaled Meshaal -- emphasis added again:</p><blockquote><p>Mashaal says Hamas would accept a Palestinian state limited to the lands Israel seized in 1967 &mdash; an implicit acceptance that Israel would exist alongside that state.</p><p><strong>But Mashaal says the group would never outright formally recognize Israel.</strong></p></blockquote>]]></description><wfw:commentRss>http://www.gwdiscourse.com/worldwatchblog/rss-comments-entry-1777821.xml</wfw:commentRss></item><item><title>How to Fabricate a Crisis</title><category>Mideast</category><dc:creator>Daniel Rozenson</dc:creator><pubDate>Sun, 13 Apr 2008 05:36:16 +0000</pubDate><link>http://www.gwdiscourse.com/worldwatchblog/2008/4/13/how-to-fabricate-a-crisis.html</link><guid isPermaLink="false">133378:1243996:1757734</guid><description><![CDATA[<p>1. Violently take over an area with an already-precarious humanitarian situation. Refuse to recognize the&nbsp;country that provides most of your infrastructure.</p><p>2. <a class="offsite-link-inline" href="http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/974043.html" target="_blank">Smuggle half of fuel deliveries</a> from said country so that you can wage war against said country.</p><p>3. <a class="offsite-link-inline" href="http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/meast/04/09/israel.gaza/index.html?section=cnn_latest" target="_blank">Wage war</a> against said country, forcing it to <a class="offsite-link-inline" href="http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24050345/" target="_blank">suspend fuel shipments</a> temporarily. Feign shock.</p><p>4. Cease attacks for a short time. Pretend you're interested in a&nbsp;peace deal. <a class="offsite-link-inline" href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/10/world/middleeast/10mideast.html?_r=1&oref=slogin" target="_blank">Replenish military arms in the meanwhile.</a></p><p>5. Wait for said country to give in and resume fuel shipments.</p><p>6. Repeat steps 2 through 5.</p>]]></description><wfw:commentRss>http://www.gwdiscourse.com/worldwatchblog/rss-comments-entry-1757734.xml</wfw:commentRss></item><item><title>Cuba: A Microcosm of Misdirected Politics</title><dc:creator>Ben Cole</dc:creator><pubDate>Mon, 31 Mar 2008 02:18:59 +0000</pubDate><link>http://www.gwdiscourse.com/worldwatchblog/2008/3/31/cuba-a-microcosm-of-misdirected-politics.html</link><guid isPermaLink="false">133378:1243996:1725958</guid><description><![CDATA[<p>With the U.S. Government's response to terrorism at home and overseas receiving what at times seems more than its fair share of criticism, a particularly glaring example of overzealous and inept foreign policy lies to our south in the sunny Carribean: Cuba.<br /><br />America's international response to the attacks of September 11 is not the only instance in which the dubious goals of punishment and retribution end up perversely effecting matters of legitimate national concern.&nbsp; The Communist Island has drifted a little bit farther from us as a result of our dogged protraction of Cold War biases.&nbsp; Already well-discussed is the Cuban Democracy Act (or &quot;blockade&quot;) and the fact that it does <a href="http://www.freetrade.org/issues/cuba.html" target="_blank">exactly the reverse of what its name suggests.</a>&nbsp; Recently I came across this paragraph in an <a href="http://www.economist.com/world/la/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10881009&CFID=289204&CFTOKEN=38594435" target="_blank">Economist article</a> that casts light on another similarly misguided policy. (<em>emphasis added</em>):</p><p>&quot; Nevertheless, lifting the ban on buying computers came as a surprise.&nbsp; Officials have long regarded the internet with suspicion.&nbsp; The government has set up a Cuban intranet, which is all that is available in schools and universities.&nbsp; Internet accounts are available only to foreigners, or to favoured Cubans for research purposes.&nbsp; Officials blame this on a lack of bandwith.&nbsp; <em>They have a point: the United States government has blocked plans for a fibre-optic link to an undersea cable in American waters (so Venezuela's Hugo Chavez is now building a similar link to his country.)</em>&quot;&nbsp; </p><p>&nbsp;The purported (and only legitimate) goals of our wranglings with Cuba are to secure a better standard of living for its people and a democratic ally for ourselves.&nbsp; These ends are hurt, not helped, by continuing to push its leadership and its people further from us and closer to Venezuela, who is emerging as far more of a threat to American interests than Cuba.&nbsp; Interestingly, this paradoxical trajectory is similar to the one taken by our leaders in the War Against Terror.&nbsp; We go after our enemies, then we go after anyone who looks like they might be our enemy, then we go after -- wait, who are we going after again?&nbsp; At any given moment, U.S. foreign policy decisions are made not because they are optimal, nuanced responses to evolving conditions, but because they drum up political support against a recognizable foe, sometimes long after the foe is the same threat that it was once estimated to be.&nbsp; It doesn't matter whether the bogeyman happens to be Fidel Castro or Osama Bin Laden, the sorry effect is the same: the alienation of our allies, the cementing of our potential enemies as actual enemies and poverty and chaos persisting for the unfortunate citizens we claim to &quot;liberate.&quot;<br /></p>]]></description><wfw:commentRss>http://www.gwdiscourse.com/worldwatchblog/rss-comments-entry-1725958.xml</wfw:commentRss></item><item><title>Rumsfeld speaks out on NATO Expansion</title><category>Global Security/Military Affaris</category><dc:creator>David S.</dc:creator><pubDate>Sun, 30 Mar 2008 20:20:48 +0000</pubDate><link>http://www.gwdiscourse.com/worldwatchblog/2008/3/30/rumsfeld-speaks-out-on-nato-expansion.html</link><guid isPermaLink="false">133378:1243996:1725339</guid><description><![CDATA[<p><span class="full-image-float-right"><img style="width: 220px; height: 162px;" alt="natoflag.gif" src="http://www.nato.int/icons/natoflag.gif" mce_real_src="http://www.nato.int/icons/natoflag.gif" /></span>The most important event this month that you haven&rsquo;t heard about is the NATO summit in Bucharest happening this week. Heads of state from the 26 member nations and partners will gather to discuss the way ahead for the world&rsquo;s most successful military alliance. </p> <p> Former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld wrote in an <a href="http://online.wsj.com/public/article_print/SB120665952870370033.html" target="_blank" mce_real_href="http://online.wsj.com/public/article_print/SB120665952870370033.html">op-ed to the Wall Street Journal:</a></p> <blockquote><p>&quot;Today NATO needs clarity of purpose. A display of timidity in Bucharest could derail its recent progress in adjusting to the demands of the still new 21st century. Moving decisively beyond NATO's traditional mindset is a strategic imperative if the alliance is to remain relevant to the challenges it is likely to face.&quot;</p></blockquote> <p>The two top issues at the summit will be NATO&rsquo;s role in Afghanistan (where the alliance is leading operations) and the memberships of Albania, Croatia, Macedonia, Georgia and Ukraine. Rumsfeld went on to write:</p> <blockquote><p>&quot;There is no better way for NATO to move forward than by extending full membership invitations to Albania, Croatia and Macedonia and by beginning the process to bring Georgia and Ukraine into the alliance in the future through membership action plans (MAPs). At a time when European commitments to the NATO mission in Afghanistan are being questioned, the determination of Albania, Croatia and Macedonia to contribute to tough missions is clear. Collectively, the three Balkan nations have more than 650 troops currently serving in Afghanistan and Iraq.&quot;</p></blockquote> <p>Keep an eye out for more news on this&hellip;</p>]]></description><wfw:commentRss>http://www.gwdiscourse.com/worldwatchblog/rss-comments-entry-1725339.xml</wfw:commentRss></item><item><title>The Case For (and Against) an Olympic Boycott</title><category>China</category><dc:creator>Daniel Rozenson</dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 27 Mar 2008 19:21:15 +0000</pubDate><link>http://www.gwdiscourse.com/worldwatchblog/2008/3/27/the-case-for-and-against-an-olympic-boycott.html</link><guid isPermaLink="false">133378:1243996:1719247</guid><description><![CDATA[<p>China's obsession over itself and the Olympics has made a lot of news recently. French philosopher Bernard-Henri Levy writes for <em>The New York Times </em>(and <a href="http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=e57a1caa-625d-4e43-8090-cd3d9d633455" target="_blank">republished</a>&nbsp;here in <em>The New Republic</em>) that the United States ought to boycott the 2008 Beijing Olympics. He correctly&nbsp;notes that the Chinese government has made a series of horrifying purges of &quot;undesirables&quot; from the cities and more crackdowns on anything resembling human rights. A sampling:</p><blockquote><p class="articleText">They have accelerated their demolition of the &quot;hutongs,&quot; working-class neighborhoods, in the center of Beijing.</p><p class="articleText">In fact, they have increased the number of homeless crammed together in the shantytowns, because there is no clear policy on relocation or housing--further underscoring the phenomenon of urban poverty they were supposed to be fighting.</p><p class="articleText">They have jailed thousands of suspected dissidents, often without trial. Citing Article 306 of their Criminal Law of 1997, they have incarcerated, arrested, kidnapped or otherwise neutralized courageous lawyers suspected of &quot;manipulating or destroying evidence.&quot;</p></blockquote><p>The Darfur situation also lurks. Levy's solution to the&nbsp;issue is to have the United States not attend the Olympics as a political statement. He anticipates that the astute reader will remember that the Soviet Union did not withdraw from Afghanistan in 1980 despite a U.S. boycott of the Summer Olympics in Moscow. His response?</p><blockquote><p>Beijing won't give in? Boycotts in general don't work? Well, I say to naysayers, we will never know if we don't try. We have nothing to lose if we do try--and the Chinese and Tibetan people have so much to gain!</p></blockquote><p>Unfortunately, here he is wrong. There is much to lose and not much to gain. And because we only have one shot here, we shouldn't screw it up.&nbsp;The Chinese have an upward trajectory on the world scene, and pissing them off with something like this now will probably damage bilateral relations for a long time to come. And given how much effort the Chinese have put into these Olympics, we know how much of an insult they will take to a boycott to be. Not that it would change their behavior, though.&nbsp;China will not be seen as caving into U.S. demands for the Chinese Olympics just so that Beijing can be graced by the presence of the Americans. We can also be fairly sure that other countries will not follow us if we decide to boycott. It's not as if the Chinese will be competing solely with the North Koreans and Cuba by the time the contests roll around.</p><p>Another thing Levy fails to realize is that precisely because America will be at these Olympics is this story drawing so much attention in the American media. The story of the Tibetan monks protesting the Chinese rule of Tibet would not be as saucy a story without the looming Olympiad.&nbsp;The games will provide Chinese dissidents the rare opportunity to be heard to a certain degree. We can already see this happening. Take a <a href="http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080327/ap_on_re_as/china_tibet;_ylt=Ao0XAQxjZ_BDwvOpCpgPN5v9xg8F" target="_blank">story from yesterday</a>, when monks approached a government-guided tour of Lhasa for foreign journalists and aired their complaints. With newsmakers right there, the Chinese police were unable to commit egregious crimes against the monks; they were yelled at to disperse and then pushed away.</p><p>The world is watching China very closely now, which means a chance for Chinese to show up their government without as much fear of another Tiananmen Square. A threatened U.S. boycott of the Olympics will not persuade the Chinese government to be lighter on Tibet or on Darfur, but it will set back American-Chinese relations for years. Bernard-Henri Levy has his heart in the right place, but if he has his way he will only make matters worse for Chinese dissidents.</p>]]></description><wfw:commentRss>http://www.gwdiscourse.com/worldwatchblog/rss-comments-entry-1719247.xml</wfw:commentRss></item></channel></rss>