Courtesy of James G via Flickr

It feels like baseball has been back for quite a while now, yet in actuality it has only been a few weeks. This feeling comes as a result of the many twists and turns of this 2013 Blue Jays season. If you were to ask some JaysTalk callers they’d likely tell you that the Jays have gone from the worst team in the league to a World Series contender in mere days. Of course I say that in jest, but with the way this fan base has reacted to each and every win and loss it surely feels like that previous sentence is true. It’s been an odd season to say the least. It’s had everything from dominant pitching performances to blowout losses to everything in between. It hasn’t all been good, but it hasn’t all been bad either. If one thing is for sure it has certainly had it’s fair share of storylines to follow.

Replacing Jose Reyes
The acquisition of Jose Reyes was likely the most unexpected, but lauded acquisition of the offseason and for good reason. After a season of watching groundout after groundout after groundout from the now departed Yunel Escobar both the offence and general excitement surrounding Jose Reyes was sure to be a plus, and it had been…until Reyes injured himself last week.

Shortly after the injury we’d heard that Anthopoulos was looking for potential Jose Reyes replacements. Obviously a player of Reyes’ stature isn’t replaced so easily, but someone needed to fill that roster spot.

That someone became the GIF-able Munenori Kawasaki. As much I like and had liked Kawasaki I hardly thought he’d be a longterm replacement, but here we are. Of course Kawaski has hit to a 185 wRC+, which is unexpected, but not unprecedented for a 16 PA sample. There’s quite a bit of room for regression, but even then any offensive inadequacy that he holds is counter-acted in part by his general likeableness, so who really knows how long he’ll stay.

One interesting thing to note about Kawasaki is that while he isn’t the best of hitters he does go into a lot of deep counts and frequently makes the pitcher work to get him out. I asked Japanese baseball fan and Kawasaki connoisseur @yakyunightowl about this tendency and he had this to say.

I’ve observed that he has pretty good plate discipline & pitch recognition. Most Japanese players aren’t free swingers, but defend the zone.

So that’s encouraging.

Unexpectedly Expected Defensive Woes
Following the many acquisitions of the offseason, the defensive side of the game became one of the lesser talked about aspects of this 2013 Blue Jays team, but as I mentioned in the season preview…

Neither PECOTA nor ZiPS projects a Blue Jays regular not named Brett Lawrie to put up above average defensive numbers. There is no one Blue Jays fielder that is particularly awful, but there’s also not many with the potential for anything higher than average defence.

Having not had Brett Lawrie for the first 13 games of the season further amplified any previous expectation of defensive woes. If it wasn’t Mark DeRosa missing a preventable ground ball down the 3rd base line then it was Maicer Izturis making viewers cringe every time he’d picked up the ball. As a further result of that we saw the rather defensively limited Emilio Bonifacio regularly fielding at 2B. While it is nice to have an above average third baseman back at 3B, the defence is far from perfect…or really even adequate for that matter.

This problem is furthered by the fact that very few people recognize that this is not a good defensive ball club. When I put it out on Twitter a week ago that I was surprised that people were surprised this defence ranked so low in projections I was met with a lot of cynicism, but ultimately a few people changed their viewpoint.

As fans of this team we are continually told of the ‘great plays’ made by Jose Bautista and subsequently told of how great a guy like Jose Bautista is in RF. That’s just one example, but there is many others like it. As a baseball fan, unless one specifically watches for good routes in the outfield or something of that nature we fall into the trap of thinking that players who make highlight reel plays are good defenders, which simply isn’t always true.

The Waiver Wire Carousel
As MLBTR’s Steve Adams noted, Alex Anthopoulos has been the most active General Manager on the waiver wire since the start of the offseason late last October and by a rather large margin too. The same has been true this season. Of the 13 total waiver claims that have been made in major league baseball, Alex Anthopoulos has made three of those claims. The first such claim was Edgar Gonzalez who would go on pitch 3.1 innings as the last man in the bullpen before being subsequently DFA and being placed in AAA. The same was true for Mauro Gomez who was an interesting 1B/DH depth piece, but a depth piece nonetheless.

Neither of those two waiver claims were particularly interesting, but the third such claim was Casper Wells whom many could envision with a roster spot for the foreseeable future. This notion stemmed from Wells’ splits vs. LHP; in his career Casper Wells has hit lefties well above average (132 wRC+) in part due to his large uptick in walks. I hadn’t written a post about it at the time, but it wasn’t too hard to visualize a scenario wherein Casper Wells could move into a full time platoon with Colby Rasmus in CF, but clearly that didn’t happen.

Granted, it may have been slightly foolish to gesture that the Jays would platoon Rasmus, a player they had valued so highly, when a similar player, Adam Lind, took so long to even be considered in a platoon.

Even then Casper Wells could have been a valuable piece, if not in an outfield platoon then in a platoon with Adam Lind at DH. He’s a better hitting, better fielding, but less speedy Rajai Davis if you will. Perhaps there is something Anthopoulos sees that we do not, but it seemed odd that a player with Casper Wells’ skillset was even put on waivers for the first time, yet alone a second time.

The Potential Relevancy of Adam Lind
Speaking of Adam Lind, well he’s still a Toronto Blue Jay and a disappointing one at that…based on the result statistics at least. Through 15 games Lind has just a 66 wRC+, but as they most always do small sample size caveats do apply. In fact looking at the more raw data Adam Lind has been better than one might expect. In the 13 games he has gotten into Lind has posted a 9.8 BB% to go along with a very encouraging 7.3 K%. Furthermore he’s produced plate discipline numbers similar to those that were so encouraging before his demotion last season. It is just 13 games, which is a minuscule sample in the grand scheme of things, but walk rates, strikeout rates, and plate discipline statistics are among those that normalize more quickly.

On top of that, thus far this season, Adam Lind has yet to face a left-handed pitcher, starter or otherwise. In part this has been masked by the fact that the Blue Jays as a whole have only faced three left-handed starters. That meaning that this usage trend could easily be coincidence, but considering that John Gibbons is the manager my bet would be that this is purposeful usage.

What exactly does all this mean going forward? Well, assuming Lind is continually utilized as he has been so far we could very well see him excel in this lesser role. As many others have noted, Lind has been having better at-bats and has been getting unlucky on balls in play, but we still frequently see the remnants of the Lind that was (or still is?) in the continual at bats where we see him hit a first pitch ground ball. Perhaps those lesser ABs are reflective of some confirmation bias from myself, as I am one who has become rather frustrated with Lind after having started to believe in him last season. Or perhaps Lind still has much to learn. It’s probably a bit of both.

With all that said anything that has happened up to this point in the season can and will change very easily in the coming months. While it may feel like baseball has been back for a while now we have to continue to remind ourselves that it’s just 15 games. There’s still 5 months and 147 games left. What has happened so far could be irrelevant come May, but that’s just the way that baseball is.

Photo Courtesy of james_in_to via Flickr

When the Blue Jays acquired Emilio Bonifacio in the Marlins Trade back in early November, we knew he was fast, but the question was, how fast?

In last night’s 10-8 win over the Cleveland [redacted]s, shortly after Colby Rasmus‘ home run, Emilio Bonifacio intended to show us just how fast he really is. He did a rather remarkable thing on the base paths, he turned what looked like a very routine ground ball up the middle, a single for most any player in baseball, into a double…and he did it without any hesitation.

The GIFs are after the jump.

The initial hit looks very routine. Michael Bourn wasn’t slow to field the ball, yet still by the end of the clip you see him hurry up to try and get the throw in to the cutoff man, who doesn’t even attempt to throw out Bonifacio at second base.

Bonifacio didn’t hesitate one bit going around first base, he had a double in mind.

Bonifacio’s signature celebration, the Lo Viste sign.

Michael Bourn, one of the fastest base runners in baseball, was in shock after the play.

As you may have guessed, speed in baseball amazes me. While it’s always nice to see Jose Bautista or Edwin Encarnacion hit a long home run, it’s much rarer to see such game changing speed; especially in this day and age. Bonifacio’s double was a speed-related treat, one of many we may see this season from the likes of Bonifacio, Reyes, and Rajai Davis.

Hat tip to @coolhead2010 for pointing out the play.

Lastly, one shameless plug, if you haven’t already seen I’ve been putting up Blue Jays GIFs and other MLB GIFs regularly on my new subdomain gifs.houseofthebluebird.com. Over there you’ll see GIFs ranging from slow motion R.A. Dickey knuckleballs to Jose Reyes dancing with the grounds crew in spring training. All the GIFs I make this season will be chronicled on that site such that funny/amazing/odd moments can be searched, rewatched, and remembered.

Photo via o.canada.com

3 Years, 5 Months, 30 Days. That’s how long it’s been since Alex Anthopoulos was named Blue Jays General Manager back in October 2009.

This was Baseball America’s Projected 2013 Lineup that was published shortly after Anthopoulos’ inauguration as Jays GM as part of their 2010 Blue Jays Top 10 Prospect List.

Catcher: J.P. Arencibia
First Base: David Cooper
Second Base: Aaron Hill
Third Base: Kevin Ahrens
Shortstop: Justin Jackson
Left Field: Travis Snider
Centre Field: Vernon Wells
Right Field: Jake Marisnick
Designated Hitter: Adam Lind
No. 1 Starter: Roy Halladay
No. 2 Starter: Zach Stewart
No. 3 Starter: Chad Jenkins
No. 4 Starter: Henderson Alvarez
No. 5 Starter: Ricky Romero
Closer: Josh Roenicke

Just two of those players were on the Blue Jays Opening Day roster (Arencibia, Lind) and just six are still in the Blue Jays organization (Arencibia, Ahrens, Jackson, Lind, Jenkins, Romero). Of those who are on the projected roster, but no longer in the Blue Jays organization, seven were traded. While that is a significant percentage of the overall projected roster it also represents a larger concept within Anthopoulos’ organizational philosophy…trades.

Since Alex Anthopoulos took over the Blue Jays GM job in October 2009 the Blue Jays have made 44 trades. In that same timeframe there has been an approximate total of 392 trades across the MLB. Meaning the Blue Jays have made roughly 11% of all MLB trades since Anthopoulos began his reign as Blue Jays General Manager.

Anthopoulos said he and his staff considered keeping the prospects and trying to fill the club’s needs through free agency. But “the bird in the hand” rather than gambling on an uncertain market was ultimately more attractive. – ”

Blue Jays trade: Paul Beeston to Alex Anthopoulos: ‘Go after it’” The Star

 

This offseason we saw that trade-based philosophy come to fruition. Both the Marlins trade and the R.A. Dickey trade, could be described as unexpected, perhaps even to Alex Anthopoulos himself. Back in October when I previewed the Free-Agent Market for the Jays, I listed a few pitching targets, but none of them as high-profile as Josh Johnson or R.A. Dickey. A few weeks after that post, the Blue Jays signed Maicer Izturis to a 3 year contract, for the most part we seemed to be in agreeance that he was a solid pickup for a team lacking a 2B. We were pleasantly surprised with Maicer Izturis. Our expectations were lower coming into this offseason last, we had been spurned by the rumour mill in the offseason prior, hoping on such players as Yu Darvish and Prince Fielder.

To get anyone of consequence would have been a joy and a surprise, but getting four players of consequence has been shocking, but delightful. Even today, as we approach the second game of the Blue Jays regular season you’ll see tweets along the lines of, “Jose Reyes is a Blue Jays,” it’s still almost unfathomable.

Getting beyond the wonderment of the 2012/2013 Offseason, with great potential once again comes great expectations. Shortly after the R.A. Dickey trade the Blue Jays’ World Series odds were as high as 8-1 and currently stand at 10-1 per Vegas Insider. A similar sentiment seems to be felt within the Toronto Blue Jays fan base. A World Series berth is not necessarily expected, but a playoff berth is almost required.

A few weeks ago, prior to the Granderson and Teixeira injuries, if you’d asked me whether the Blue Jays would even make the playoffs I don’t think I’d have been able to give you a definitive answer. Even today, with the fallen Yankees, it’s not inconceivable to see the Blue Jays on the periphery of playoff contention come late September.

Despite their potential prowess in run production and starting pitching there’s a lack of certainty in the bullpen and poor defense that doesn’t look like it will get much better.

In the bullpen, Steve Delabar strikes out more than his fair share of batters, but is he going to be able to keep his home run rate down? Is Sergio Santos going to be able to stay off the DL? How is Casey Janssen going to perform coming off of shoulder surgery? Can Aaron Loup sustain the success he found at the end of last season? Can Jeremy Jeffress find the strikezone? The list goes on and on. Staying true to theme of the rest of the Blue Jays roster, there is the possibility for greatness, but the questionability to envision the bullpen going horribly wrong.

The opposite may be true with the Blue Jays’ current defence, it’s pretty putrid and we know for fact. Neither PECOTA nor ZiPS projects a Blue Jays regular not named Brett Lawrie to put up above average defensive numbers. There is no one Blue Jays fielder that is particularly awful, but there’s also not many with the potential for anything higher than below defence. One might make the case that the Blue Jays as they are constructed have modelled themselves such that they can combat some potential defensive woes, similar to the 2012 Tigers. They have set themselves up with a rather awful defensive force, but they also have a strikeout intensive pitching staff. By 2012 numbers, the Blue Jays have four starters with above average strikeout rates (Dickey, Morrow, Johnson, Happ). If they can keep fewer balls on the ground or in the air and more in the catcher’s glove, that should at least somewhat aid defensive run prevention.

With that said this Blue Jays roster definitely shouldn’t be met entirely with pessimism. By fWAR the Blue Jays’ Opening Day roster contained nine players who have had at least one 4.0 fWAR season in their respective careers (Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, R.A. Dickey, Jose Reyes, Melky Cabrera, Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, Colby Rasmus, Mark DeRosa). As well the current top 4 in the Blue Jays lineup (Reyes, Melky, Bautista, Encarnacion) could rival any in baseball, all four of them were among the top 5 in wRC+ at their respective positions.

The same can be said for the top of the rotation. R.A. Dickey was arguably the best pitcher in the National League last year and was awarded the NL Cy Young for his efforts. Brandon Morrow was near the top of the leader boards in both ERA and FIP prior to his season ending injury. Josh Johnson was a 3.4 fWAR pitcher in a season in which he was forced to tinker with his repertoire. Despite that, the questions once again surface. Is R.A. Dickey’s 2012 season sustainable, can either Brandon Morrow or Josh Johnson stay healthy? Who’s to say.

All of this results into a scenario where despite the many acquisitions and newfound depth, the Blue Jays have a large variance in their potential outcomes. PECOTA for example projects on the lower end of that variance at 84-78, while ZiPS projects on the higher end of that variance at 94-68.

As for me? I fall somewhere in between. I have worries about some of the offensive performances continuing from players such as Melky Cabrera and I’m also of the mindset that the Josh Johnson we have now is not at all the Josh Johnson of yesteryear. However I’m not as worried about injuries as some, they will happen, they can’t be predicted, but there is enough depth to combat them. If I was to put a number on it, I’d say the Jays finish 90-72 with the Rays right ahead at 91-71.

Is that a satisfying outcome? Does that count as “The Season Where it All Comes Together”? It’d be the first Blue Jays playoff berth in 20 years, but the expectations might be higher.

In the end, after all the predictions, the worries, the questions, the ambitions, the Blue Jays will undoubtedly be a fun, exciting, and very successful baseball team in 2013.

Jose Reyes is a Blue Jay.

Courtesy of Keith Allison via Flickr

2012 marked a magical year for Edwin Encarnacion. In a season that saw a majority of the Blue Jays starting lineup and starting rotation go on the disabled list, EE was a lone bright spot. In fact Edwin was the only Blue Jays position player to substantially outperform preseason expectations, even among such high-potential players as Brett Lawrie and Jose Bautista. At the end of the year he finished with the 7th best offensive season in the MLB by both wOBA and the park adjusted wRC+. In the history of the Blue Jays only a handful of players have finished that high, names like Bautista, Barfield, Delgado, McGriff, and Olerud grace that coveted list.

In total, Edwin Encarnacion hit 16 more home runs than he had in any other season, he had a walk rate almost 3% higher than his previous high and that culminated into a season with more than twice the value that he had produced in any season prior per fWAR.

Despite the massive uptick in performance there seemed to be a slight lack of recognition. Perhaps this was a result of the chaos that was occurring around him? Or perhaps it was a sense of expectation? To some extent the Toronto fan base expected a surge from Edwin Encarnacion. We had always been told he had potential, particularly in the power department.

In 2012 that potential came to fruition, but through what means exactly? On the outside Edwin didn’t seem like a particularly different player, he wasn’t ‘jacked up’ and his play on the field was as clumsy as ever. The main difference we saw was this presumed power that had finally been unlocked. Edwin always had raw power, but changes in 2012 allowed him to utilize it and turn it into game power.

If you were a listener of the now defunct Up and In podcast, Jason Parks and Kevin Goldstein often talked about the concept of raw power versus game power in terms of prospects, but a similar concept applies to major league hitters. The theory states that there is players that have great raw power, but in order for that to translate to ‘in game home runs’ there needs to be an accompanying hit tool of a certain level. In 2011, Edwin’s hit tool was not at that level.

To attempt to fix that, as John Lott wrote late last April, Edwin Encarnacion made a couple changes to his swing prior to the 2012 season. These changes being a subtler leg kick as well as a two handed followthrough. Both of which can be seen in the following two GIFs.

2011 (Click to Enlarge)

2012 (Click to Enlarge)

The first GIF is of Edwin Encarnacion’s swing on a HR hit off Jered Weaver in 2011, the second GIF is of Edwin’s swing on a HR hit off Wei-Yin Chen in 2012.

In 2011 Edwin had a fairly large leg kick that started as soon as the pitcher begun his windup, but in 2012 he shortened the leg kick motion, started it later. As for the two handed followthrough, which can be seen in the second GIF, the result was a shorter, more controlled swing. Often the result of shortening one’s swing is an additional amount of time that the hitter can use to see and assess the pitch that’s coming out of the pitcher’s hand. In turn this can be seen in a hitter’s plate discipline statistics.

In 2012, Edwin Encarnacion posted the lowest overall swing rate of his career (41.6%), while still maintaining his career average contact rate (82.1%). He raised his pitches per plate appearance rate from 3.74 in 2011 to 4.19 in 2012. Of course P/PA isn’t the be all end all of plate disciplinary statistics, notably bad hitters like Jemile Weeks and Jamey Carroll also appeared in the top 20 in P/PA in 2012. However if we take a closer look at Edwin’s Pitch F/X Hitter Profile we find that quite a few of the pitches that EE was laying off of in 2012 were breaking balls low and outside.

2011 per Baseball Prospectus’ Pitch F/X Hitter Profiles (Click to Enlarge)

2012 per Baseball Prospectus’ Pitch F/X Hitter Profiles (Click to Enlarge)

Each of the above graphics includes Encarnacion’s swing rate against the slider (left) and curveball (right) in 2011 and 2012. As you can probably tell, there is quite a bit less red at the bottom of the 2012 graphic indicating that Edwin swung at a substantially lower number of breaking balls low and outside in 2012 as opposed to 2011. Thereby leading to more balls, more walks, and better overall contact…three things that were supposedly the objective in changing Edwin’s swing.

As well, as was previously mentioned, Edwin hit 16 more home runs than his previous career high, while maintaing the lowest PA/HR rate of his career. This runs somewhat contrary to the theoretical results of the changes that he made. Most often the compacting of one’s swing will lead to less power, not more. Instead Edwin Encarnacion’s HRs were on average 15.8ft further (413.2 ft in 2012, 397.4 ft in all years prior) than his career Average True Distance per Hit Tracker, lending itself to the theory of game power versus raw power.

With both of those points in mind there’s a case to be made that Edwin’s career highs in BB% and HR/FB% aren’t subject to as much regression as one might expect. ZiPS for example projects a 10.6 BB% (down 2.4%) and a 15.1% HR/FB (down 3.6%) assuming the same fly ball rate as 2012, resulting in a .369 wOBA (down 27 points).  Pitchers are bound to pitch to Edwin differently, but if he can make adjustments as he did in 2012 there’s reason to believe that he should be able to combat those changes and produce similar overall offensive numbers save for slight regression as the result of age.

Alex Anthopoulos often talks about investing in in the player, the player that puts in the work and makes the needed adjustments. Edwin showed that he could accomplish that last season. Alex Anthopoulos likely saw that when he signed Edwin Encarnacion to a 3-year $27 million dollar contract extension.

He’ll never be an elite (or even above average) fielder, but he has an elite, cost-controlled bat at a position that, league wide, is beginning to lose depth. There’s no reason to believe that his premier performance won’t continue going forward.

Special Thanks to Chris Sherwin and Steve McEwen for their input on this post

The GIF on the left comes from the Jays first Spring Training game versus the Detroit Tigers. In the first inning Austin Jackson hit a long fly ball to centre field that Anthony Gose tracked down and caught over his shoulder as he was nearing the outfield wall. The GIF on the right comes from the famous blown triple play call in Game 3 of the 1992 World Series. Devon White made the catch off a deep ball to CF at the Sky Dome. As you likely know, the ball would then get thrown to first base for the second out and subsequently to Kelly Gruber at third who caught the foot of Deion Sanders as he was diving back to second base, Bob Davidson didn’t see it that way. The video of the triple play can be seen here.

The GIF is somewhat of an homage to the Up and In Podcast, where Kevin Goldstein and Jason Parks often comped Gose to Devon White because of their similar speed and centre field defence.

What’s crazy about the Gose catch, something you don’t realize at first, is that the CF wall at Joker Merchant Stadium in Lakeland is 20 feet further than the 400 ft wall at the Sky Dome in ’92. Gose is fast.

Photo Courtesy of Barbara Moore via Flickr

Since the Blue Jays acquired R.A. Dickey from the Mets in late December, there hasn’t been a whole lot of Blue Jays news. This has been a stark contrast to last year’s offseason where even at this time, the Jays were linked to such players as Prince Fielder and Matt Garza. The obvious reason behind the lack of recent Jays news and rumours is the fact that, for the most part, the Jays as a team, are set. They have a full lineup, a stacked rotation, and a bullpen overflowing with additional relievers. Up until recently the only position that the Blue Jays needed to fill was that of the 25th man on the roster.

That position was filled earlier this week with the signing of Mark DeRosa to a guaranteed 1-year $750,000 contract with an option for an additional year at the same price. DeRosa, strictly as a player, fits a need within this Blue Jays team. He plays a number of positions (1B, 2B, 3B, LF, RF) and he’s been well above average vs. LHP in the past. This skill was present in 2010 wherein DeRosa posted a 138 wRC+ versus lefties (in a small sample size) and 2009 wherein DeRosa played a full season and posted a 141 wRC+ vs. LHP. On the other hand, there’s been a significant amount of time since then and the time in between has been filled with a number of injuries as well as poor performance. Though pure performance is not the only thing that DeRosa provides.

As Drew Fairservice of Getting Blanked quite excellently noted in his write-up of the transaction, “Mark DeRosa is the mascot to the stars.”

DeRosa’s meaning to the 2013 Jays will likely be no different than what Omar Vizquel meant to the 2012 Jays, he’s a veteran presence. He is reportedly a ‘great clubhouse guy’ and one that can ‘mentor the younger the players’. Whose to say what that’s really worth, but it would be hard to argue that DeRosa’s character and on field performance don’t at least have the potential to create the 1/15th of a win above replacement required to justify his contract.

With that said, DeRosa is the 25th man to a seemingly complete Blue Jays roster, but despite that, early last week, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe had this to say about the ongoing Michael Bourn free agency mystery.

6. Michael Bourn, CF, free agent — The Rafael Soriano signing by the Nationals is a reminder to never underestimate the market Scott Boras can create for a client. Bourn seemed like a good fit in Seattle before the Mariners acquired Morse, and the Phillies, who could use another outfielder, remain an obvious choice. The Mets are not out of the picture if the price and length of commitment come down. Could the Blue Jays be a long shot? They have Colby Rasmus, but he could be traded. The Yankees?

Considering that Anthopoulos has stated on a number of occasions that the Blue Jays roster for 2013 is all but set and that there is purportedly some financial parameters, the rumour doesn’t make a whole lot of initial sense. However, thinking about the Jays in relation to the teams around them, talent-wise, the rumour begins to hold some worth.

Right now the Blue Jays are a very good team, they’re likely the best team in the AL East. The problem is that there’s a number of other very good teams in the AL East, namely the Yankees and Rays. As saddening as it is, it isn’t too hard to picture a situation in 2013 wherein the Blue Jays finish 3rd in the division. The Jays are still banking on 600 plate appearances from a number of injury-prone players and solid seasons from breakout stars like Edwin Encarnacion and Melky Cabrera.

By signing Michael Bourn the Jays would put themselves on a level above the two aforementioned teams. Bourn would represent somewhere between a 2-4 win upgrade over current centre fielder Colby Rasmus and might push this team past the 95 win mark.

Of course, there’s the little issue of getting Bourn to agree to a reasonable contract. Many have speculated that Bourn might take a ‘pillow contract’ or in other words a 1-year contract. This is such that he can go back on the free agent market next offseason.

If this ‘pillow contract’ is really what Bourn is looking for, there’s a case to be made to sign him.

For one thing, Bourn makes the Jays better in 2013 and gives them an even better shot at a World Series. For another, because the Blue Jays have a protected 1st round draft pick, by signing Bourn they would have the potential to ostensibly transfer their 2nd round pick this year into a 1st round compensation pick in the 2014 draft.

The Blue Jays have the 42nd pick in the 2013 draft. They would lose that pick if they signed Michael Bourn. However, it is fair to assume that Bourn would warrant a qualifying offer after 2013 considering that he hasn’t produced an fWAR below 4.0 since 2008. If he is then signed by another team without a protected pick in the 2013/2014 offseason the Blue Jays would get a compensation pick in the 31-34 range. They would also get an additional $250,000+ added to their draft budget based on 2012 slot values. Not to mention that the 2014 draft is also (so far) looking like a draft with more depth than the 2013 draft.

Though if Bourn is signed, Colby Rasmus becomes a player without a place on this roster. Any trade involving him, would likely be selling low, but keeping him on the roster would be a waste. It’d leave the Jays in a tough position.

This is why, in the end, attempting to sign Bourn could easily become a logistical nightmare. It’s highly unlikely that the Blue Jays sign him, but Bourn is an interesting free agent case given the situation he’s in and the protected pick that the Jays have. If the Jays don’t sign Bourn, who will? Mariners? Mets? Rangers? No one seems to be biting, but then again no one seemed to be biting on Rafael Soriano either. So whose really to say what will happen.

With that said, I leave you with a Sporcle Quiz that I whipped up about players that the Blue Jays have acquired this offseason. It includes all players acquired between October 29th and today (January 28th). This includes any player who was signed, traded for, or picked up on waivers. The date that the player was acquired is listed. To view the quiz in it’s Sporcle form click here, or click read more to view the embedded version.

Photo Courtesy of Keith Allison via Flickr

It’s January 6th and the offseason is just over halfway done, but the Blue Jays have largely accomplished more than anyone could have ever imagined…perhaps including Alex Anthopoulos. Through the Maicer Izturis signing, the blockbuster trade with the Marlins, the Melky Cabrera signing, and the R.A. Dickey trade the Blue Jays have added a total of 21 Wins Above Replacement by 2012 FanGraphs standards. During this process the Jays have filled a majority of the holes that they had prior to the offseason by finding a left fielder, a second baseman, and multiple top of the rotation starters.

Blue Jays Depth Chart as of January 6th via BlueJays.com

As you can see on the depth chart above, the Blue Jays roster is pretty full. After accounting for starters at every position, a backup catcher, a backup infielder, a 4th outfielder, and a 7 man bullpen it leaves 1 spot left on the 25-man roster. Throughout the offseason, fans have sought to fill that spot with a 1B/DH platoon partner for Adam Lind, looking to such options as the now signed Johnny Gomes and Mark Reynolds as well as acquired and relinquished 1B/DH/OF Russ Canzler. The first two options are now gone and Canzler was simply inadequete compared the the Blue Jays’ in house option, Rajai Davis.

The same can be said for a majority of the rest of the free agent market. Of the FA options left only Mike Napoli, Delmon Young, and Aubrey Huff have higher wRC+’s than Rajai Davis vs. LHP over the past three years and only a few others have come close to Davis’ production versus lefties. The difference between Huff and Davis is marginal and while Mike Napoli and Delmon Young represent upgrades they will either take a large commitment in Napoli’s case or pinhole the Jays into a sole DH platoon.

In theory it would make sense to simply supply a better right handed half of a DH platoon for Adam Lind, but the present versatility on the Blue Jays roster could provide a situation with similar results.

As is, in Rajai Davis and Emilio Bonifacio, the Jays have two players who can collectively play LF, CF, RF, 3B, SS, and 2B while also being more than adequate against LHP for the positions that they play. As well, in terms of position players presently on the Blue Jays projected 25-man roster, there is quite a few players who one might call injury risks…players like Jose Bautista, Jose Reyes, and even young gun Brett Lawrie. Using their present versatility the Jays could give each of those players, among others, some games at DH when the Jays are going up against a left handed starter and put one of Davis or Bonifiacio in their place in the field.

The proposed positional breakdown would look something like this.

vs. RHP
C – J.P. Arencibia
1B – Adam Lind
2B – Maicer Izturis
SS – Jose Reyes
3B – Brett Lawrie
LF – Melky Cabrera
CF – Colby Rasmus
RF – Jose Bautista
DH – Edwin Encarnacion

vs. LHP
C – J.P. Arencibia
1B – Edwin Encarnacion
2B – Maicer Izturis
SS – Jose Reyes/Emilio Bonifacio
3B – Brett Lawrie/Emilio Bonifacio
LF – Melky Cabrera
CF – Colby Rasmus
RF – Jose Bautista/Rajai Davis
DH – Rajai Davis/Jose Reyes/Brett Lawrie/Jose Bautista

Of course there would still be a number of games where Rajai Davis is pencilled in as the DH and whose to say whether Reyes, Bautista or Lawrie would be ok with being delegated to DH, but when you consider that the other FA options are either costly, not significantly better, or not very good at all the present situation doesn’t seem all that bad.

With that said, it still leaves the question of what to do with the 25th spot on the roster and at this point it seems most likely that it will go to someone currently on the 40 man roster (David Cooper, Ryan Goins, Moises Sierra, Aaron Loup, etc.), but of the available options, none of them is particularly intriguing considering the present roster construction. Instead what would probably be ideal is someone who can play 3B better than Bonifacio and maybe even fill in at 1B vs. LHP from time to time…of course this would ideally be done without breaking the bank and probably in the fashion of a player willing to accept a minor league deal.

Beyond that there isn’t too much left for this Toronto team to do. The Jays are set with players at all 8 positions on the diamond and their starting rotation is more than filled out. At this point there could still be value in upgrading certain positions like C, RP, and even CF…depending on how much money the Jays have left to spend. However, as is, with the current team, the Jays likely have their best shot at the playoffs since the glory years in 1992 and 1993.

Photo Courtesy of Cristine Maybourne via Flickr

As Richard Griffin of the Toronto Star wrote on Monday, the Blue Jays reached an extension with R.A. Dickey that is reportedly worth $25 million for 2 years with a team option for $12 million in 2016. The extension was the final piece of the puzzle and it completed the Jays/Mets trade that was reportedly agreed upon in principle days before. In total the Blue Jays traded away Travis d’Arnaud, Noah Syndergaard, John Buck, and Wuilmer Becerra to the New York Mets for R.A. Dickey, Josh Thole, and Mike Nickeas.

Prior to the trade, d’Arnaud and Syndergaard were the No. 1 and No. 2 prospects in the Blue Jays farm system. In return the Jays are getting R.A. Dickey, the 2012 NL Cy Young winner, but a pitcher without a long track record of elite success. FanGraphs defines elite or ‘All Star level’ as a player with between 4 and 5 wins above replacement in a single season. Solely using fWAR, Dickey would qualify for just one all star level season in his career (2012), but if you look to RA9-Wins as Dave Cameron exclaimed yesterday, it opines that Dickey has had 2 seasons worth 4+ wins above replacement (2010, 2012) coming to a total of 14.8 wins over the last three years. Only six other pitchers in baseball have had higher fWAR totals in that same time period.

The reason for the difference in value is that RA9-Wins uses runs allowed as opposed to FIP for the calculation of WAR. In the calculation of WAR, FIP is adjusted to a normalized BABIP, but runs allowed keeps the BABIP as is. This means that in calculating Dickey’s WAR, the FIP version severely undervalues him because Dickey consistently produces lower BABIPs than what would otherwise be expected.

As Dave Cameron described

You shouldn’t just use RA9-wins for any pitcher who outperforms his FIP, as often times, that’s simply the product of good teammates or some good luck, but you should also know that FIP doesn’t work for every pitcher…Knuckleball pitchers induce weak contact that leads to consistently lower than average rates of hits on balls in play

While this may be a better way of valuing R.A. Dickey, this comparison in a way represents the sense of unknown that we still have with knuckleball pitchers. Perhaps with Dickey, the unknown is even further amplified as last season he did things that only a few knuckleball pitchers ever have and at velocities that no knuckleballers have ever reached.

With all that in mind, going forward R.A. Dickey is an interesting projection case. In his most recent article ($) Dan Szymborski showed off the ZiPS projections for the newest Jay, which valued Dickey as a 4 WAR pitcher in 2013 and a 10.6 WAR pitcher over the next three years.

Is that enough to push the Blue Jays over the top in 2013? Maybe…?

As it stands ZiPS projects the Blue Jays to win 93 games in 2013, which also projects to be the top win total in the American League East.

Even then giving up the two top prospects in any farm system, yet alone one that previously ranked among the top in the league, for a pitcher who still has questions about his value doesn’t always end too favourably. In the aftermath of the trade some have pointed to the fact that the Jays are legitimate contenders for a playoff spot and every additional win is worth more. While that may be true, I’m not a big fan of using it as justification for a single trade because it assumes that there is no other way to achieve additional wins. In this case I find it hard to believe that R.A. Dickey was the only option and that giving up two elite prospects was all that could be done to improve the team. Perhaps I’m wrong…perhaps certain free agents didn’t want to sign in Toronto, perhaps Dickey was the only trade option, perhaps the Jays have maxed out their budget. There is a lot of variables in the trade that as outsiders, we aren’t privy to.

With that said, regardless of my opinion on the trade, R.A. Dickey is one of the most exciting pitchers to watch in the MLB, he makes the team better in 2013, and he’s an all around great person. I’m overjoyed (as any fan should be) to have Dickey on the Jays, but still apprehensive about what the cost ended up being. Nonetheless, Dickey the best.

Photo Courtesy of GMO66

At the time this article is being posted, Josh Johnson has officially been a member of the Toronto Blue Jays for a total of 8 days. It seems like ages ago that the mega-trade was announced by the MLB, but up until the last half week the pace of the offseason really hadn’t slowed down. Despite the acquisition’s recent occurrence an extension for Johnson has already become a topic of discussion amongst media in Toronto. As early as last week Johnson’s agent, Matt Sosnick, was on the Jeff Blair show discussing Johnson’s openness to discuss an extension with the Jays and these same sentiments were reiterated in one of Brandon Kennedy’s most recent columns.

For many franchises in the upper echelon of payroll prowess discussing an extension with a recently traded for pitcher is almost commonplace. These teams being described often trade for pitchers of Johnson’s calibre with the idea of extending said player, assuming said player is willing to discuss the topic. Despite their newfound spot among the league’s elite payrolls the Blue Jays are flowing into relatively uncharted waters and because of this some of the norms that come with a bigger payroll haven’t taken effect in Toronto just yet.

With that said despite what became an estimated $30 million dollar addition to the payroll over the past two weeks there hasn’t been any signs that the Jays are going to slow down just yet. Because of this as well as Josh Johnson’s apparent openness to discuss an extension it isn’t necessarily out of the realm of possibility that the Blue Jays could extend him before this offseason is over. However even with Johnson’s openness and the potential of additional money being available, Josh Johnson himself provides a peculiar extension case.

From Johnson’s first full season in the major leagues until now, he’s averaged just 129 IP per season and has pitched over 200 innings just once. His foray into the world of Dr. James Andrews began in 2007 when he first missed significant time due to a neurological injury in his elbow, which ultimately progressed to a need for Tommy John Surgery, which occurred in August of 2007. Following that surgery Johnson was generally healthy in the subsequent years until 2010 and then later 2011 wherein Josh Johnson missed significant time due to shoulder inflammation.

If one were to look solely at that information and then declare Josh Johnson an injury prone pitcher they likely wouldn’t be alone in that declaration, but despite what is an injury prone past there may be optimism for the future. In Stephania Bell’s pre-2012 starting pitcher injury preview she noted that while the fact that Josh Johnson took longer than expected to come back from shoulder inflammation was discouraging, he had also instituted a new offseason training program, which could provide hope for the future. Said training program was described as such.

[During the 2011/2012] offseason…Johnson worked with a physical therapist on very specific strengthening of the musculature that supports his throwing arm. This type of exercise will not make it outwardly appear as if one has spent serious time in the weight room. It will, however, focus on the neuromuscular coordination of the muscles most important to a pitcher, the ones that often go untrained or at least under-trained, when one veers more into heavy lifting

Beyond that in another article by Stephania Bell, there was a quote from Josh Johnson wherein he expressed his clear belief that his shoulder would be stronger going forward. While we can’t determine too much injury-wise over the course of a single season I would be lying if I told you I wasn’t slightly encouraged by the fact that Josh Johnson implemented his new offseason training program and then went on to pitch the entire 2012 season relatively injury free.

With that said on the statistical front Josh Johnson’s 2012 season wasn’t a complete success. Even though he stayed healthy, he still lost a MPH off of his fastball. It should be noted that dropping a single MPH from 94 MPH to 93 MPH certainly isn’t as detrimental as it would be for a pitcher who throws in the high 80s/low 90s, but it is still concerning nonetheless. As well beyond the decreased velocity almost all of Johnson’s peripherals in 2012 were worse than his career norms. His walk rate rose to 8.2%, his strikeout rate dropped to 20.7%, and his home run rate rose to 0.66 home runs per nine innings. But above all the stat that is perhaps the most concerning was Johnson’s Zone% that dropped 5% below his career average and sat at a career worst 44.4% in 2012. This meaning that in 2012 Josh Johnson threw roughly 600 less pitches inside the strike zone, which is likely evidence of a slight loss of command.

If Johnson were another season removed from the shoulder inflammation that plagued him in 2011 it’s not inconceivable that his velocity would return to career norms, but it’s also no sure thing, which is a major factor to consider in a potential extension.

As for the money side of the extension, since MLBTR started tracking extensions in the early 2000s there has been three starting pitchers who were extended with service times between 6.00 and 8.00, Matt Cain, Kyle Lohse, and Johan Santana. Of those three pitchers the one whose career performance most closely matches Josh Johnson’s is Matt Cain.

Over their careers prior to extension Matt Cain and Josh Johnson produced fWARs of 23.6 and 22.3 respectively. As well in the three years prior to extension Cain and Johnson produced fWARs of 11.7 and 11.8 respectively.

For Matt Cain, his production resulted in the signing of a massive 6 year $127.5 million deal earlier this year. Whether you base your evaluation on the all-encompassing value statistic of your choice or any of the many ERA estimators, Josh Johnson would look to be in line for a similar contract assuming no other factors. However because Johnson has a few previously discussed weak points in his case for a larger extension one would expect an extension with substantially less money than the $127.5 million guaranteed to Matt Cain.

The other day when I put it out on Twitter asking people what kind of contract they thought Josh Johnson would get, the answers ranged from 3 years $45 million to 6 years $100 million. As is evidenced by the variance in predictions it becomes a little hard to make an accurate prediction because there really are no players who have recently been given extensions and who were also in a similar position to Josh Johnson.

He relates closely to Cain on an overall level and it isn’t inconceivable that he might get a contract similar to Cain’s on the open market if he pitches another year of injury free baseball, but for Josh Johnson that Cain contract is too ambitious at this current time. Because of that perhaps something closer to the 5 year, $77.5 million contract that C.J. Wilson landed on the free agent market last offseason is a more realistic possibility.

When the Angels signed Wilson to that contract last offseason he had come into it with two consecutive 4.5+ fWAR seasons, but he also carried the caveats that he appeared to be outperforming his skill set and that he had been a reliever for the majority of his career. Josh Johnson doesn’t carry these same caveats, but he too has glaring holes in his case for a larger extension and it could similarly lessen his expectations.

With that said if one were to take C.J. Wilson’s contract and add the 5% inflation that is generally prescribed to contract growth in the MLB it brings us to 5 years and roughly $82 million. If we assume that the average annual value is the yearly salary then the contract and the wins above replacement required would break down something like this.

Depending on what you think of Josh Johnson, 12.8 wins above replacement over his ages 30-34 seasons may seem like quite a bit, but it is definitely well within reach. If one were to assume that 2012 Josh Johnson is who he will be going forward then they can probably assume 4 wins above replacement in 2014. Given that number and a 0.5 WAR decline after the age 30 season it would give Josh Johnson a total of 15 wins above replacement over the course of the contract and that assumes no injuries.

Even if Josh Johnson is injured at some point during those five seasons as long as the injury isn’t career threatening then he should still be more than able to fulfill the aforementioned extension.

As well when you consider that the price of a win may be going up at a faster rate in coming years due to an influx of revenue through new MLB wide and local market television contracts an extension of this nature for a player who has been injury prone could be a risk, but a well calculated risk.

Depending on how Josh Johnson views his own injury risk he may be inclined to sacrifice some money later for a little bit of assurance now, but if something similar to this is all he is offered he may also be inclined to forgo an extension of this size with the hopes of a larger one after a healthy 2013 season. Of course any action by the Blue Jays on this front is also highly dependent on how the rest of the offseason shakes out. It’s nice to know that Josh Johnson is open to an extension, but with 4 months left until the 2013 season begins there is plenty of room for change still left on the Blue Jays roster and it certainly doesn’t seem like Alex Anthopoulos is done just yet.

The collective sigh that Blue Jays fans began the 2012/2013 offseason with has assuredly subsided as the Jays completed what may be the biggest trade in their history. In the transaction, the Blue Jays got Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, Jose Reyes, Emilio Bonifacio, John Buck, and $4 million (maybe more?) from the Marlins in return for Yunel Escobar, Adeiny Hechavarria, Henderson Alvarez, Justin Nicolino, Jake Marisnick, Jeff Mathis, and Anthony DeSclafani. Jon Morosi first reported the rumblings of the deal and summed it up pretty nicely too.

The shorthand of this deal is something like this: If you are earning a big salary with the Marlins, you are now a Blue Jay.

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) November 13, 2012

Despite the intended sarcasm, Jon Morosi was right, the Blue Jays acquired $163.75 million of total salary from the Marlins and before arbitration the Marlins are left with $32 million committed to their 2013 payroll. That figure comes just one year after their $101 million payroll and the opening of their new publicly funded ballpark. The trade resulted in reactions ranging from “HAHAHA F U Loria” to “OMG OMG OMG”, but on the whole it produced a state of excitement in Blue Jays fans unparalleled by anything in quite a long while.

Simply on a player for player basis, the Blue Jays gained roughly 10-12 wins in their acquisitions, but nothing comes without a catch. In the process of the deal the Blue Jays increased their 2012 payroll by roughly $30 million to a total of $108 million for 2013. That $108 million figure is by no means exact, it is a prediction, but it does include all payroll obligations plus MLBTR’s projected arbitration numbers. Nonetheless that projected figure would mark the highest Blue Jays payroll in…well…ever. The previous high came in 2008 when the Blue Jays ran on a payroll of $97 million dollars.

Furthermore, while it is amazing that the Jays managed to keep Travis d’Arnaud in the deal, they still traded away their No. 3 and No. 5 prospects in Jake Marisnick and Justin Nicolino. Since the trade has happened there have been quotes from scouts who’ve shown hesitancy towards predicting Marisnick with as bright a future as Marlins fans might hope, but nonetheless both he and Nicolino are Top 100 prospects.

In return for their prospects, their players, and their money the Blue Jays got an improved starting SS in Reyes as well as two pitchers to plug into the top half of their starting rotation in Johnson and Buhrle. In Reyes the Jays are getting an additional 3 or 4 wins over what Yunel Escobar provided for them in 2012. In Buehrle the Blue Jays are getting a consistent pitcher who can and should give them 200 innings in 2013, a change of pace from what we saw with the rotation in 2012. Lastly in Johnson the Jays are getting a guy who has been among the Top 15 pitchers in baseball over the past four years, in terms of WAR, which if he’s healthy should mean a 3-5 win upgrade on whatever back end of the rotation starter the Jays would have otherwise used.

Then along with the big three, the Jays acquired 32 year old J.P. Arencibia (aka John Buck) and a better Mike McCoy (aka Emilio Bonifacio), two players who are likely to be used in backup and utility roles. Bonifacio missed significant time last year due to injury, but he can and has played 2B, 3B, SS, LF, CF, RF while also being one of the best base runners in baseball.

The only curiosity I had with the trade was the fact that the Blue Jays acquired two players who were free agents during the previous offseason, Reyes and Buehrle. Whether this means that the Blue Jays didn’t have enough funds until attendance increased, that they’re more hard set on their “No Contracts Longer than 5 Years” rule than we thought, that they simply couldn’t convince either of Reyes or Buehrle to come to Toronto, or for some other unknown reason it is speculation that peaks curiosity, but speculation nonetheless. Of course all of this is easy to say in hindsight, but it would still be interesting to see how things would have played out both this season and this offseason had the Jays signed the two players they traded for.

With that said, in the Land of Blue Jays fans, where apparently anything is possible (yes Kevin Garnett you were right) this megadeal has amounted to proclamations of the Jays being the best team in the AL East, in the American League, and from the mouths of a few Twitterers, the best team in baseball. While the trade represents a significant upgrade, the injury ridden Blue Jays acquired two more injury ridden players. While that isn’t the end of the world, creating a team with plenty of injury prone players could very easily hamper the 2013 record.

Even then, whether or not this team is even a playoff contender is still a legitimate question, but one that can be answered another day. For today we can revel in the benefits of an increased payroll, hopes for contention, and the excitement of seemingly limitless possibilities as we await both the rest of the offseason and the beginning of Spring Training.

PHOTO CREDIT: AP Photo/Jeff Roberson