Energy Market Conditions and Trading Recommendations

Blog Permanently Relocated

noreply@blogger.com (Gabriel A. Pumariega) — Tue, 24 Aug 2010 17:13:00 +0000

Please visit our updated website at www.hcenergy.com by clicking here

A direct link to our Market Updates section is available by clicking here or by bookmarking http://www.hcenergy.com/market_updated.aspx

EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commentary

noreply@blogger.com (HCEnergy) — Wed, 14 Jul 2010 16:49:00 +0000

Crude oil stocks fell by 5.1 million barrels, the 3rd consecutive 2+ million barrel draw. Almost as important, stocks at Cushing, OK, increased by 0.3 million barrels to 36.1 million, leaving Cushing stocks less than 2 million barrels shy of the all-time record set May 14th
Refinery utilization rates increased by 0.7% to 90.5%, crossing the 90% maximum that has held since early 2008
Bloated distillate stocks: inventories ↑2.9 million barrels to 162.6 million barrels
Motor gasoline stocks ↑1.6 million barrels after a 333,000 bpd decrease in imports was offset by increased domestic production (↑141,000 bpd) and softer demand (product supplied ↓369,000 bpd)

Consumer Hedge Tear Sheet

noreply@blogger.com (HCEnergy) — Mon, 12 Jul 2010 16:06:00 +0000

EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commentary

noreply@blogger.com (HCEnergy) — Thu, 08 Jul 2010 17:45:00 +0000

Bearish crude: Despite an eye-opening 4.96 million barrel decrease in crude oil inventories, stocks at the Cushing, OK oil trading hub fell by only 200,000 barrels. Until crude oil stocks significantly reduce further, the surplus inventory will easily absorb such draws
Refineries increased crude oil inputs by 135,000 bpd, pushing utilization rates up 1.4% to 89.8%
Gasoline stocks ↑1.32 million barrels while demand was flat due to higher-than-usual imports (↑223,000 bpd to 1.254 million bpd)
Natural gas stocks rose by 78 BCF last week, 6 BCF greater than expected. Oct10/Jan11 is $0.045 wider at -$0.797 as the risk of insufficient year-end storage levels slightly diminishes further, all else being equal

Chris Thorpe's letter to the editor: Wall Street Journal

noreply@blogger.com (HCEnergy) — Thu, 08 Jul 2010 17:44:00 +0000

Below is a letter that Chris Thorpe submitted to the editor of the Wall Street Journal on Tuesday. The original op-ed is available at: Click Here

Sir,

The Dodd-Frank bill should do Main Street a favor. The proposal to move derivatives to the exchange will help avoid Enron-like disasters in the commodity and derivative transactions in the United States as well as its trading counter parties. For those main street customers holding derivatives with BP, I rest my case. For consumer hedgers that fear collateral capital risk, the Dodd-Frank bill clearly defines a carve-out for consumer hedgers.

Chris Thorpe, CFA
Managing Member, HCEnergy, LLC
New York, NY

Consumer Hedge Tear Sheet

noreply@blogger.com (HCEnergy) — Tue, 06 Jul 2010 15:27:00 +0000

EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commentary

noreply@blogger.com (HCEnergy) — Wed, 30 Jun 2010 18:14:00 +0000

Bearish crude: Crude oil stocks fell by 2.0 million barrels last week, attributed to a 631,000 bpd decrease in crude oil imports. Refineries decreased consumption of crude oil by 98,000 bpd
Distillate stocks ↑2.5 million barrels: this is the largest build since April 23 and is 1.7 million barrels above Reuters survey expectations
Refinery utilization ↓1% to 88.4%, reversing most of last week's unexpected 1.5% increase
Crude oil at the closely-watched Cushing, OK storage nexus ↓0.8 million barrels to 36.0 million barrels, the second consecutive draw of about 800,000 barrels. Stocks are now 2 million barrels off of the all-time high set on May 14th

Consumer Hedge Tear Sheet

noreply@blogger.com (HCEnergy) — Mon, 28 Jun 2010 18:12:00 +0000

EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commentary

noreply@blogger.com (HCEnergy) — Wed, 23 Jun 2010 20:58:00 +0000

Crude oil stocks built 2.0 million barrels overall, though stocks at Cushing, OK drew 0.8 million, after Gulf Coast crude oil imports surged by 501,000 bpd week-on-week to 5.9 million bpd
Refinery utilization rate ↑1.5% to 89.4% after refineries increased gross inputs by 253,000 bpd
The contango in WTI is slightly narrower on the draw in Cushing: Aug10/Dec10 is $0.02 tighter at -$0.79
Neutral motor gasoline: Total mogas inventories ↓0.7 million barrels, in-line with the ↓0.1 million barrels expected
Somewhat bullish distillate: stocks ↑0.3 million barrels, vs. ↑1.3 million barrels expected

Consumer Hedge Tear Sheet

noreply@blogger.com (HCEnergy) — Mon, 21 Jun 2010 17:15:00 +0000

Consumer Hedge Tear Sheet

noreply@blogger.com (HCEnergy) — Mon, 14 Jun 2010 18:08:00 +0000

Bunkerspot June/July 2010 article by HCEnergy's Chris Thorpe

noreply@blogger.com (HCEnergy) — Fri, 11 Jun 2010 15:31:00 +0000

EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commentary

noreply@blogger.com (HCEnergy) — Wed, 09 Jun 2010 19:07:00 +0000

The 0.98% fall in the US Dollar Index and rallying equity markets are the principal drivers of the market today; the EIA release contained few surprises
Crude oil stocks ↓1.8 million barrels, vs. ↓0.9 million expected, after refineries increased utilization by 1.6% to 89.1%
Cushing, OK crude oil inventories ↓0.5 million barrels, sustaining today's $0.15 narrowing of the July/August contango in WTI
A 128,000 bpd decrease in Distillate product demand helped push inventories ↑1.8 million barrels, vs. ↑0.4 million expected

Consumer Hedge Tear Sheet

noreply@blogger.com (HCEnergy) — Mon, 07 Jun 2010 20:25:00 +0000

EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commentary

noreply@blogger.com (HCEnergy) — Thu, 03 Jun 2010 15:56:00 +0000

Gasoline stocks fell by 2.6 million barrels, much more than the -0.5 million barrels expected by analysts. An increase in production (149,000 bpd) offset a decrease in imports (148,000 bpd), suggesting that gasoline demand was considerably higher than expected.
Product cracks are continuing yesterday's rally, supported by the fourth consecutive reduction in refinery utilization: ↓0.3% to 87.5%
Crude oil imports ↓473,000 bpd, leading to a larger-than-expected 1.9 million barrel draw in stocks
Crude oil stocks at Cushing, OK reversed last week's 300,000 barrel loss, returning levels to the all-time high of 37.9 million barrels

EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commentary

noreply@blogger.com (HCEnergy) — Wed, 26 May 2010 18:38:00 +0000

Refineries reduced crude oil inputs by a modest 107,000 bpd after July HO and RBOB margins fell $3+ during the last week; Utilization is 0.1% lower at 87.8%
Crude oil stocks ↑2.4 million barrels, 2.2 million barrels over expectations, but virtually all of the increase was in the somewhat independent US West Coast market
Gasoline stocks ↓0.2 million barrels, as expected, after a 266,000 bpd increase in imports substituted a 220,000 bpd fall in domestic production

Consumer Hedge Tear Sheet

noreply@blogger.com (HCEnergy) — Mon, 24 May 2010 15:06:00 +0000

EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commentary

noreply@blogger.com (HCEnergy) — Wed, 19 May 2010 15:48:00 +0000

A draw in distillate stocks of 1.0 million barrels was today's only surprise; Analysts expected a 1.3 million barrel increase
Gasoline stocks ↓0.3 million barrels, vs. ↓0.6 million barrels expected, while crude stocks ↑0.2 million barrels, vs. ↑0.7 million expected
Crude oil stocks at Cushing, OK surged further to 37.9 million barrels, an all-time record, reinforcing the view that landlocked and over-supplied Oklahoma crude should trade below Brent futures for the next few months
Refineries decreased gross inputs by 83,000 bpd, resulting in a 0.5% decrease in refinery utilization to 87.9%
Product cracks have steadily ebbed lower today: Jun0 RBOB is ↓$0.81 to $15.59 while Jun0 HO is ↓$0.41 to $12.56

Consumer Hedge Tear Sheet

noreply@blogger.com (HCEnergy) — Mon, 17 May 2010 17:42:00 +0000

EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commentary

noreply@blogger.com (HCEnergy) — Wed, 12 May 2010 17:14:00 +0000

Gasoline stocks fell by 2.8 million barrels, vs. expectations of a 0.7 million barrel build, after imports fell by 293,000 bpd
June 2010 RBOB crack is ↑$1.21 to $17.04, widening the June/July crack spread to over $4.00 as summer driving season begins
Stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma surged to a record 37 million barrels, depressing WTI relative to Brent further: June 2010 Brent is now $5.00 over WTI
Refinery utilization rates decreased 1.2% to 88.4%: crude oil consumption by refineries ↓110,000 bpd to 15.03 million bpd
Ever-increasing domestic crude oil stocks are deepening the crude oil contango: Jun/Sep is $0.78 wider at $7.68

Consumer Hedge Tear Sheet

noreply@blogger.com (HCEnergy) — Mon, 10 May 2010 17:56:00 +0000

Consumer Hedge Tear Sheet

noreply@blogger.com (HCEnergy) — Wed, 05 May 2010 17:51:00 +0000

Consumer Hedge Tear Sheet

noreply@blogger.com (HCEnergy) — Mon, 03 May 2010 16:32:00 +0000

Consumer Hedge Tear Sheet

noreply@blogger.com (HCEnergy) — Mon, 26 Apr 2010 17:13:00 +0000

Bunkerworld April/May 2010 article by Chris Thorpe

noreply@blogger.com (HCEnergy) — Thu, 22 Apr 2010 12:59:00 +0000

Bunkerworld.com: Click here
Jonathan Kornafel's blog on Bunkerworld.com: Click here