Hong Kong Financial News

Chaoda Modern (0682) – Buy – Aug 18 2010

hk guy — Wed, 18 Aug 2010 03:25:20 +0000

Chaoda Modern dropped more than 17% today due to their latest round of fund raising. They have managed to raise more than US$356 million in the combo package of CB, shares and call options.
This seems a good opportunity to buy now as price is currently at $7.08 (dropped $1.48 / 17%).
Dilution for existing minority shareholder is around 12%.
The share placement price is $7.53.
The call option share price is $7.9065.
The CB converseion price is $8.10.

Buying at current price ($7.08) would be a much better deal than those professional investors who participated in the share placement. Sounds like a good opportunity to get in now, unless I am missing something…

Sino Land (0083) – June 27th Focus

hk guy — Sun, 27 Jun 2010 15:49:38 +0000

Sino Land should be a focus stock tomorrow because of the surprisingly good sale of its latest project in Olympic Station – The Hermitage. This sale is particularly symbolic as this is the first major “sale before finishing” after the government announced more regulations for primary real estate sale.

According to today’s Apple Daily (June 26), there were a few groups of mainland investors snapping up a few units each. But most of the sales are by real users as around 80% of the buyers chose to start mortgage immediately to receive the 5% discount from the developer.

I never thought Olympic Station could go above $10000 per square foot. Seems like real estate in prime location still has very high demand.

Do keep an eye on this stock tomorrow!

June 17th 2010 – HSI continues to rise

hk guy — Thu, 17 Jun 2010 11:54:19 +0000

HSI continues to rise, even though the total volume is still below HK$50 billion and it is only a meagre 76 points.

What it seems like is that HSI is getting pulled higher every morning by markets in Europe and in the US. After this pull up, there was just little interest in buying or selling shares.

With the HSI up seven days in a row, statistically speaking, there should be a high chance for the index to go down.

June 14th: Super low volume, HSI barely moved, world cup effect on stocks

hk guy — Mon, 14 Jun 2010 11:21:35 +0000

Today’s HSI closed at 20051, up 179 pts.

However, volume today was at super low level, at HKD 37.9 billion dollars. Trading range was only 80 points. It would make dealers falling asleep very quickly during the day. And with world cup matches happening during mid nights, how many dealers are actually awake during trading hours?

Maybe a lot of traders are on strike these days… for european traders, the world cup matches are probably more important to them than stocks. world cup only happens every four years, but you can trade stocks every day! for asian traders, they are very likely sleepy coming to office every morning. and soccer is actually getting more popular in nyc with the 1-1 draw between USA and England. And thank God the matches happen during east coast office hours!

People are too busy watching the world cup and don’t have time to initiate any attack against the Euro, the high unemployment rate, or the inefficient ECB.

May 11th

hk guy — Tue, 11 May 2010 03:11:24 +0000

I don’t have much insight to today’s market. Most likley there is some pull back after yesterday’s big jump. The China economic data are not creating much impact on the indices today (The Shanghai indicies didn’t drop at all). There may be some movement in the afternoon because of the land sale in Tung Chung. Other than that, today will be a quiet day.

Bought some bull certs again and aimed to get out intra-day with a few points of gain.

May 10th

hk guy — Mon, 10 May 2010 02:56:40 +0000

Good news from Europe this morning. The ECB and the financial ministers finally have come up with something more concrete. Their much-swifter action over this weekend to give something concrete to the public before Asia opens is definitely something that tells people that they are finally getting their acts together to defend the Euro. A big contrast to the past few months where leaders were not too enthusiastic in helping Greece and the PIIGS out given the leaders’ political implications in their home countries. Strong confidence boost to the stock market!

As I said in the comments to my last post, I believe the market will go up today (at least this morning). No analyst / strategist should come up with any negative report at least until morning in Europe so it is guaranteed that there will be a few hours of good time.

Strategy to profit:

Just bought a few bull certs and hopefully it will up a few points and then I will exit the trade intraday.

I would remain long overall as it seems like the bears should cut its shorts given the good news in Europe. Hopefully there will be some short covering and world indices will continue to go up throughout the day.

May 7th

hk guy — Fri, 07 May 2010 03:09:42 +0000

Europe’s Debt Crisis. China’s clamp down on real estate. And lastly there is a faulty trade in the US which brought the Dow 1000 points at one point.
However, the HSI seems to have recovered quite a bit from today’s low opening already. Sentiment remains weak. However, we are seeing gradually that more people are going long in this market. The big drops in yesterday’s afternoon and in today’s opening both were recovered quickly.

I still think it’s good buying opportunity below 20000 for HSI. Good luck trading in this turbulent market!

May 6th

hk guy — Thu, 06 May 2010 02:47:41 +0000

It seems like the world is slowly returning to normal, with Europe and America both down a little bit.

Asia is still weak with Japan and S Korea back in action from holiday.

It seems like the HSI has good support at around the 20100-20200 level.

Action plan for the day:

I believe there won’t be much action today… let’s see if Europe will open up later today. If it actually opens up, I will buy some HSI bull certs in the last hour of trading.

hkfinancialnews.com is changing its focus!

hk guy — Wed, 05 May 2010 12:26:42 +0000

I am changing the focus of this blog… Now this blog will document my thinking, my views and my trades in the Hong Kong Stock Market. I hope this will help me become a better a trader and make more money in the stock market!

You probably will see a new color theme, a new title… and brand new remake of this site soon!

May 5th

hk guy — Wed, 05 May 2010 09:38:31 +0000

What a day. The HSI opened down 380 points, breaking all the major moving average lines, including the 250 day MA line. Surprisingly, the Shanghai index reversed its drop after lunch and ended up gaining 0.77%. The HSI followed its Shanghai peer, reducing its drop to around 250 points. However, this only lasted for half hour and the index continued to drop and closed at 20328 (down 2.1% – 436 points).

Action for the day

The bull certs bought yesterday were bought at around 20700… Eventually the HSI will go back up, but I just hope that the index will not drop below 19900 – the callable level of my bull certs. If the HSI drops further tomorrow, I may need to roll this bull cert to another one with a lower callable level.

Bought another set of bull cert right before lunch today. I was surprised at the sudden rise in the Shanghai market during lunch so I sold this bull certs shortly after the market reopened after lunch. This is pure luck that the HSI dropped again right after I sold the certs. Lucky me!

It seems like the market will continue to be weak. I guess if Europe and the US stop dropping in today’s trading then the HSI will have some support at this current level tomorrow. Otherwise, I think that it can drop down to 20000 easily.

I wondered why the index suddenly dropped after 3pm, not following through the big jump from the Shanghai market. Is it because they saw Europe was down again at open, and that’s why everyone starts selling again? I haven’t seen Europe played such a big influence on the HK market, but probably this time it is different because it is a Europe crisis.