Home, with family

We feel safe, comfortable

Protected, at ease

Is it real, or not

The safety, security

Or just a belief

Who is watching you

Are your neighbors friend or foe

How you ever know

The games we play, games

For sport, for fun, for a chance

Oh, the games we play

Games fill us with joy

With passion, with connection

Provide an escape

Escape to something

Escape from something, up, out

To more, to better

Do games make us safe

Do games make us vulnerable

Yes, games do just that

It’s been a long while since I’ve posted here. Almost two months. But if you follow me on Twitter or Facebook, you know I’ve been busy writing about baseball. Very busy.

In early September, I started writing weekend features for Baseball Nation. These pieces run the gamut from baseball poetry to baseball analysis to baseball humor. Just exactly what you came to expect on HangingSliders. If you haven’t seen those posts or if you want to just catch up with old favorites, you can find my Baseball Nation archive here.

In early October, I started writing twice weekly for FanGraphs. These posts tend to have more straightforward analysis, but with the kind of story-telling that you found in my analytical pieces on Hangingsliders. If you haven’t seen those posts or if you want to catch up with old favorites, you can find my FanGraphs archive here.

So what’s next for the blog? I’m not entirely sure. Writing for Baseball Nation and FanGraphs keeps me pretty busy (not to mention my two kids).

But I’m working hard to find the time for writing here at least once a week during the off-season. Baseball haikus. Thoughts on Giants’ trades and free-agent signings. Whatever else comes to mind that doesn’t fit neatly at either FanGraphs or Baseball Nation.

I was inspired by a friend over the weekend to write a haiku on the Wilson Ramos kidnapping in Venezuela.  That’s where I’m starting. It will be the post just above this one on the home page.

If there are topics you’d like to see me write about, let me know in the comments or drop me an email through the Contact button.

Thanks for helping make HangingSliders a success.

Come back soon.

By now you’ve heard that San Francisco Giants Managing General Partner and CEO Bill Neukom will be leaving that position soon, to be replaced by Giants President Larry Baer.  The news broke in a story by Mark Purdy of the San Jose Mercury News around 4 pm Wednesday afternoon.  If you haven’t done so already, read Purdy’s story in its entirety. The link is here.

According to Purdy, the Executive Committee of the Giants’ ownership group forced Neukom out after tensions arose over certain financial decisions by Neukom.  For their part, the Giants are calling it a “planned transition” by which which Baer will take over day-to-day operations and Neukom will become the Chairman Emeritus.  Neukom and Baer will hold a press conference Thursday morning at 11:00 am.

It’s very difficult to believe that Neukom is voluntarily participating in a “planned transition.” Neukom had a very successful career as General Counsel of Microsoft, is extraordinarily wealthy as a result, and genuinely appeared to cherish the role of running the baseball team he has loved all his life. Oh, and he just presided over the first World Series Championship for the Giants since their move out west in 1958.  That is not a recipe for a “planned transition.”

According to Purdy, the dispute centers on Neukom’s use of the winner’s booty: the millions of dollars the Giants earned from additional merchandise and tickets sales after the World Series victory.

It wasn’t necessarily that Neukom authorized his baseball people to spend $22 million on a new contract for first baseman Aubrey Huff, or decided to add millions of dollars more to the payroll by trading for New York Mets outfielder Carlos Beltran in July. It was that the Executive Committee believed Neukom, as part of his fiduciary duties, should have consulted with them about his major decisions. Instead, the Executive Committee members were infuriated when they sometimes learned of Neukom’s decisions through news reports.

. . . .

Neukom’s falling-out with the Executive Committee, the baseball sources said, began over how to spend the additional millions of dollars that flowed into team coffers after the World Series championship. For example, one source says that since October, the Giants’ merchandising revenue alone has increased by $1.5 million to $2 million per month over previous years. Ticket sales also boomed. The Giants have effectively sold out every game this season.

Neukom, it is said, believed that this was his money to spend as he saw fit — and he did so, increasing payroll and buying new technology for the baseball department, among other expenditures. Instead, the Executive Committee wanted the money to be put in a “rainy-day fund” for use in leaner times.

There’s a great deal of concern tonight in the Bay Area about what Neukom’s departure means for the immediate and long-term future of the Giants.  You can read a range of opinions and analyses here, here, here, here and here.  I recently wrote a post praising Neukom after the Giants released Aaron Rowand and Miguel Tejada while still owing them more than $15 million on their guaranteed contracts.  That was the right decision for team and for the franchise. I hope that decision did not precipitate today’s events.

One interesting piece of the story for me is the role played by Giants majority investors Tori Burns and Trina Burns Dean, the daughters of the late Harmon Burns and Sue Burns.  It was Harmon Burns, together with Peter Magowan and Larry Baer, who formed the investor group to buy the Giants and keep them from moving to St. Petersburg, Florida in the early 1990s. Harmon Burns died in 2006 and Sue Burns died three years later, leaving their Giants ownership interests to their daughters.

In the Chronicle’s obituary of Sue Burns, it noted that she was a close friend of Barry Bonds “through his best and worst times.”  I remember when the Giants held a special ceremony to honor Sue Burns after her death, Bonds flew in from L.A. to be a part of the on-field activities.  I remember thinking about how emotional Bonds appeared to be, how deeply moved he was by Sue Burns’ death, and his clear love and affection for the Burns daughters.

There’s been a lot less of Barry Bonds in the Giants world under Bill Neukom’s leadership. He attended fewer games; made fewer appearances.  Granted, Bonds has been busy dealing with his criminal trial and related legal proceedings. But is there more to it? Did Neukom take steps to distance the Giants from Bonds in the wake of the steroids scandal and ensuing indictment and trial?  Many have asked why Bonds’ number 25 hasn’t been retired by the Giants and why Bonds hasn’t been inducted into the Giants Wall of Fame.  Even Mike Krukow and Duane Kuiper have remarked recently about how much they miss “the big fella.”

I don’t know the answers, but I wonder if Neukom’s apparent effort to keep a distance from Bonds drew a wedge between him and the Burns family.  It seems far-fetched that Neukom would be ousted over the team’s relationship with Barry Bonds. But it also seems far-fetched that Neukom would be forced out because he authorized the purchase of additional technological tools to be used by General Manager Brian Sabean’s baseball operations without getting sign off from the Executive Committee. They could all be pieces of this strange puzzle.

I could be way off base on the Bonds angle. Or I could be on to something. We will learn more in the days and weeks ahead.

For now, I share in the sentiment expressed throughout the Bay Area tonight: great surprise over Neukom’s departure and deep concern about the commitment of the Giants ownership group to invest in a winning franchise now and in the future.

All of a sudden, there is some intrigue in the race for the playoffs in the National League. Yes, the Braves are in a tail spin, but their chances of making the playoffs as the Wild Card team are still 94.5%, according to Baseball Prospectus. There just isn’t enough time for the “surging” Giants to leap frog over the Cardinals and catch the Braves, although every Giants fan went to bed last night dreaming of revenge for 1993.

No, the intrigue in the National League is over whether the Diamondbacks or the Brewers will end the season with the second-best record to the Phillies, thus securing home field advantage in the Division Series.  The Brewers held that position for a while, but their recent slide opened the door for the Diamondbacks.  Those teams are now tied at 86-62.

That got me thinking about potential Division Series match-ups. And that got me thinking about which National League contender has the best set of bench players, because having a good bench–or not having one–often plays a big role come playoff time.

Phillies In First

Not surprisingly, the Phillies boast the best bench in the National League.

I assume Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley and Placido Polanco will be healthy and in the starting lineup every day in the playoffs. If so, I see Charlie Manuel adding utility guys Wilson Valdez, Ross Gload, John Mayberry Jr. and Ben Francisco, along with backup catcher Brian Schneider, to the playoff roster.

Off that group, only Mayberry’s hit consistently well all season. In nearly 250 plate appearances over 89 games, Mayberry’s batted .263/.331/.509 with 13 HRs and 7 SBs.  His wOBA is .362 and his wRC+ is 127, putting him in the top 20 in wRC+ for all National League outfielders this season.  Mayberry’s September numbers are a bit below his season line, but not by much. In 20 PAs, he’s hitting .250/.350/.438 for a wOBA of .354.

With the injuries to Rollins and Utley, Valdez saw consistent playing time in April and May and then again in August. Overall, he’s had more plate appearances (285) than any other Phillies utility player. It’s been an up-and-down year for Valdez at the plate, but he’s come on strong in August and September. His season line is .249/.293/.345 with a wOBA of .275 and a wRC+ of 67 but in 87 PAs since August 1, Valdez is batting .293/.328/.472 for a wOBA of .332 and a wRC+ of 106.5.  Valdez performs best in high leverage situations and with men on base–just the right combination for playoff baseball.

After the Phillies acquired Hunter Pence, Francisco’s playing time plummeted, but he’s done well off the bench. In 19 PAs since August 1, Francisco has 3 BBs and 7 hits, including 2 doubles. Those kinds of numbers come in very handy in the post season.

Gload also has been hot and cold this season, posting decent numbers in April, very good numbers in May and June, god-awful numbers in July and August, and good numbers so far in September.  Like Valdez, Gload performs better in high leverage situations, but unlike Valdez, Gload seems to wilt with runners in scoring position. He’s strikeout-prone and doesn’t walk alot, and hasn’t hit a home run all season.  I’d expect Gload to be used sparingly in the playoffs.

Diamondbacks A Close Second

With former Blue Jays Aaron Hill and John McDonald now firmly at second base and shortstop, respectively, the Diamondbacks bench consists of Willie Bloomquist, Lyle Overbay, Geoff Blum, Sean Burroughs, and rookies Colin Cowgill and Paul Goldschmidt.  Henry Blanco is the back up catcher.

Goldschmidt arrived in August from AAA and has shown impressive power so far. His overall line is .256/.326/.487 with a wOBA of .389 and a wRC+ of 121, evidencing a good walk rate (9.3%) but a not so good strikeout rate (30.2%).  He has 7 home runs in 129 PAs and all of them seem to come in crucial situations. His first major league home run came off Tim Lincecum at AT&T Park in a game against the then-first place Giants that the Dbacks won 5-1.

Overbay arrived in the desert after being released by the Pirates and he’s done very well off the bench. In 33 PAs with the Snakes, he’s got 3 BBs and 9 hits, including 2 doubles and a home run. That’s considerably better than he performed in Pittsburgh, so small sample size caution is warranted.

Bloomquist saw the most playing time early in the season and then again after shortstop Stephen Drew broke his ankle on July 21 and before Hill and McDonald arrived from Toronto.  Bloomquist seems to prefer regular playing time, as he posted his best months in April and July. Overall, he’s batted .270/.326/.349 with a wOBA of .297 and a wRC+ of just 78. Obviously, he’s not a power guy, but his strikeout rate of 13% is below the NL average, so he puts the ball in play.

The same is true for Geoff Blum. Blum was injured most of the year, returned to the Arizona roster in July, was injured again and returned for good on September 1. In only 34 PAs, he’s batting .267/.353/.500. His wOBA is .363, evidencing his nearly 9% walk rate.

Burroughs is the most interesting bench player for the DBacks. Burroughs was out of professional baseball for five years when Arizona signed him to a minor league deal this year. By May 19, he was in the majors, and he’s been up and down to AAA much of the season.  In 106 PAs, he’s posted a line of .265/.276/.333. He almost never walks, strikes out alot, and has almost no power. He’s been a fun story, but I can’t see Gibson taking Burroughs to the playoffs over Bloomquist, Blum or Overbay.

That leaves Cowgill–a light hitting outfielder who’s played excellent defense but done nothing to speak of at the plate. His overall line of .221/.294/.273 in 85 PA wouldn’t add much to the DBacks’ playoff roster.

Braves In Third

Just before the waiver trade deadline, the Braves added bench depth with shortstop Jack Wilson and outfielder Matt Diaz to compliment Brooks Conrad, Eric Hinske and on-again-off-again-regular Jose Constanza. In 40 combined plate appearances, neither Wilson nor Diaz has drawn a walk nor hit a home run and each has struck out more than 22% of the time.  Not much in the way of depth there.

Conrad and Hinske have had decent seasons off the bench, with Hinske having more playing time due to injuries to Braves outfielders Nate McLouth and Jason Heyward.  Unfortunately for Hinske and the Braves, he’s run hot and cold all season, hitting well in April, May and July, but dreadfully in June, August and September. Hinske strikes out alot (26.7%) but he does know how to work the count, leading to a walk rate of nearly 10%.  The biggest issue is Hinkse’s drop in power over the last few seasons: his .417 slugging is good, but his lowest since 2007. He has no home runs in August and September.

Conrad’s season line is .240/.333/.417 with a wOBA of .330 and a wRC+ of 108.  He’s been much more patient at the plate this year, pushing his walk rate to a career high of 11.2%. Unfortunately, his strike out rate is also at a career high (33.6%), in only 113 PAs. Conrad’s also been hurt in September with a sprained ankle.

And then there’s Constanza. Called up in late July with Jason Heyward hurt and struggling, Constanza hit the leather off the ball in August, batting .365/.392/.452, a walk rate of 7.3% and a strike out rate of only 11%.  But September has been a different story entirely: .235/.235/.235–that’s right, no walks, 4 Ks and 4 singles in 17 PAs.  With no post-season experience, it’s going to be difficult for Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez to count on Constanza for much in the 2011 playoffs.

Brewers In Fourth

The Brewers bench consists of Craig Counsell, Jerry Hairston, Mark Kotsay and Carlos Gomez. Even without looking closely at the numbers, that list does not inspire a lot of confidence.

With 236 PAs, Kotsay has seen the most playing time of the Brewers utility players and he’s been just a hair below replacement level. His overall line for the season is .263/.318/.346 with a wOBA of .295 and a wRC+ of 83.

Counsell is best known this season for his record-tying 0-for-45 hitless streak. His line reads .169/.273/.217 in 177 PAs. Yuck.  Gomez was replaced in center field this season by Nyjer Morgan and then broke his clavicle in July. He’s done nothing to speak of at the plate since his return from the DL.

When Rickie Weeks went down with a severe ankle sprain in late July, the Brewers acquired Jerry Hairston to fill in. And Hairston did a fine job, batting .311/.354/.392 in August. But September has been a whole other story. In 29 PAs this month, Hairston is batting .083/.241/.083.  That is not a typo. And it’s not a good situation for the Brewers.

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

The Phillies are the best at everything this season, so it’s not surprising they have the strongest bench in the National League.  The Diamondbacks have done well by adding Overbay, calling up Goldschmidt and getting Blum back from the DL. Arizona’s re-jiggered bench has given the Snakes the added boost they needed down the stretch. On the flip side, the Braves and Brewers are struggling and haven’t received much help at all from their bench over the last several weeks. A weak bench will hurt both teams come playoff time.

Last week, I made my debut at Baseball Nation, the flagship baseball page of SBNation. It’s a post entitled Meditations on the Stretch Run.  You can find it here.

I will be writing features for Baseball Nation on occasion but still posting here the baseball analysis, commentary, poetry and humor you’ve come to love at HangingSliders.  It’s been a bit sparse in the last week due to the Labor Day weekend and some family events but there are more goodies coming.  So stay tuned and come back often.

 ”Ownership was apprised throughout the process,” Giants General Manager Brian Sabean said. “That was not a problem.”

–Story by Andrew Baggarly on MercuryNews.com

The process referred to is the one that led the Giants to designate Miguel Tejada and Aaron Rowand for assignment on Wednesday. Ownership is Giants Managing General Partner and Chief Executive Office Bill Neukom. Neukom was “apprised” because cutting ties with Rowand without trading him means the Giants remain on the hook for the remainder of his 5-year/$60 million contract–estimated at more than $14 million.  According to Baggarly, Neukom signed off on the decision “without delay.”

It remains to be seen over the next 28 days whether ridding themselves of Rowand and Tejada will turn the Giants season around. I’m not particularly hopeful, simply because there isn’t a lot of time left and, after play on Wednesday, the Giants remain 6 games behind the Arizona Diamondbacks with 25 games to go. The Giants could have–should have–made these moves a month ago, or more. My guess is that the Giants believed they’d plugged an important hole with Beltran trade, that the offense would be heading in the right direction, and that the Diamondbacks would fold. That turned out to be very wrong, and the delay may very well cost the Giants a return trip to the post-season.

But on Wednesday, there was a way to make the team better, for whatever remains of the 2011 season and beyond. Yes, $14 million is a lot of money, even for a World Series Champion with nearly a season of sold out games at AT&T Park. But the Giants owed Rowand that money whether he played or sat on the bench, whether he hit a pinch-hit home run or swung at every slider on the outside corner.

In business it’s called “a sunk cost.”  When the product that led to the sunk cost can no longer perform, you cut your losses and move on.  Good companies do it every day. Baseball teams usually don’t.

Bill Neukom made the right business decision for the long-term success of the Giants.  He did so “without delay.”  For Giants fans, that’s the best and most important news of the day.

Pedroia or Ellsbury? Ellsbury or Gonzalez? Gonzalez or Granderson? What about Zobrist? Who’s Zobrist? It’s all about Bautista. Bautista? He doesn’t play on a winning team. Don’t forget Verlander. Verlander? He’s a pitcher. A pitcher can’t be a league MVP. Yes he can. No he can’t. Yes he can. No he can’t.

Sound familiar? That pretty well sums up the current debate over who should win the American League MVP Award this season.

While I can find fault with the terms of the discussion, the players on everyone’s list of AL MVP candidates makes sense. Oh, and I’m delighted to see Ben Zobrist getting some ink.

One player skirting the edges of the discussion is Detroit Tigers first baseman Miguel Cabrera. He’s not my pick for MVP, but Cabrera is having an outstanding year.

To be sure, Cabrera posted better overall numbers in 2010, when he came in second to Josh Hamilton in MVP voting. But in some offensive categories, Cabrera is at or near career bests.  His performance this season is all the more remarkable given the self-inflicted wounds Cabrera suffered early this year.

Just a few days into spring training, Cabrera was arrested for driving under the influence of alcohol. Details of the incident were ugly (resisting arrest) and the aftermath was worse. This wasn’t the first time Cabrera had done something incredibly stupid and dangerous while drunk. After a week of tests by doctors and addition specialists, MLB recommended that Cabrera participate in a “multi-faceted, professionally-administered” alcohol treatment program. Cabrera agreed.  A month later, Tigers manager Jim Leyland seemed to be the only person still predicting a big year for Cabrera.

Leyland was right.

Here’s how Cabrera’s offensive performance so far in 2011 compares to the players on everyone’s AL MVP short list:

3rd in Batting Average at .328, behind Adrian Gonzalez (.345) and Michael Young (.336)

5th in Slugging Percentage at .554, behind Jose Bautista (.645), Curtis Granderson (.591), David Ortiz (.587) and Adrian Gonzalez (.559)

4th in BB/K at 1.14, behind Dustin Pedroia (1.25), Bautista (1.20), and Ian Kinsler (1.20)

2nd in On-Base Percentage at .432, behind Bautista (.453)

2nd in wOBA (Fangraphs) at .418, behind Bautista (.457)

2nd in wRC+ (Fangraphs) with 166, behind Bautista (194)

Even with a .554 slugging percentage, Cabrera’s power is down from last season’s high of .622 with 35 doubles, 48 home runs and 111 runs scored. On the other hand, Cabrera will set new career bests in Walk Percentage (15.2) and Strikeout Percentage (14.0) if he maintains his current levels.

When it comes to WAR (Wins Above Replacement), Cabrera takes a big hit with his sub-par defense–as he has throughout his career. Well, except for 2005, when Fangraphs rated his third base defense at 15.8 on the UZR/150 scale. As of the end of play on August 29, Fangraphs has Cabrera with an fWAR of 4.9, good for 11th in the American League. Baseball-Reference ranks Cabrera higher with a bWAR of 5.1, good for 7th in the American League. With just average defense, Cabrera would most certainly be on everyone’s short list for MVP candidates this year.

So while Tigers pitcher Justin Verlander gets most of the team buzz (with some saved for catcher Alex Avila), Cabrera has been the Tigers’ excellent and consistent workhorse. No one has played more innings for the first place Tigers so far this season. That’s why it was nice–at least for me–to see Cabrera did miss a game last week for the birth of his third child.

Miguel Cabrera won’t win the AL MVP Award this season. But if the Tigers make the playoffs (and Baseball Prospectus has their odds today at 87.3%), don’t be surprised to see Cabrera with some post-season awards hardware in his hands.

So many baseball websites now features a Tweet of the Day, either as a daily feature or as an occasional good laugh.  You know I like to do things a bit differently around here.  So in my first Tweet of Yesterday, I’m going to highlight a tweet that was so good, so funny, that it got better with age.

We now know that Hurricane Irene has forced the cancellation of the Mets-Braves games scheduled for Saturday and Sunday. But yesterday afternoon, the weekend scheduling at CitiField was very much up in the air.

Braves beat writer extraordinaire David O’Brien was tweeting the various possibilities.  One follower (Bigbraves95) asked O’Brien about the possibility of a double-header on Saturday.  Here’s the tweet and response:

Notice how I said that O’Brien and Bigbraves95 were tweeting about a possible double-header. I figured that out from Bigbraves95′s use of the abbreviation DH.

Well, at least one of O’Brien’s followers–who I assume is at least a baseball fan, if not a Braves fan–wasn’t quite sure what was going on.  Here’s the exchange between O’Brien and EJF1180:

I think O’Brien handled it as well as he could.  What do you think?

What’s the most fashionable idea in major league baseball right now? That Jim Thome’s 600th home run is more impressive than Derek Jeter’s 3000th hit? I only wish. Shirseys? Nope.  The MLB Fan Cave? Absolutely not.

No, the most fashionable idea right now is pointing out that the San Diego Padres, in last place in the National League West, have scored more runs than they’ve allowed, which gives the Padres a better run differential than a lot of other teams. Some tweets from the last few days:

It’s true. At the end of play on Sunday, August 21, the Padres had scored 496 runs but allowed only 492, for a run differential of +4 but their win-loss record was 59-70. The San Francisco Giants, on the other hand, had scored 439 runs and allowed 454 for a run differential of -15, yet had a win-loss record of 68-60.

And the AL Central? By the end of the day on August 21, the Tigers had scored 573 runs and allowed 572 (+1) but were leading the AL Central with a win-loss record of 68-58. The Indians were at -7 but with a winning record of 62-61 and the White Sox were at -8 with an even record of 63-63.

Why all this attention on run differentials? Because runs scored, runs allowed and the run differential are the key ingredients in the Pythagorean Winning Percentage–the formula originally developed by Bill James to determine a team’s expected winning percentage.  James theorized that a team’s expected winning percentage was more closely indicative of a team’s performance than its actual winning percentage.

As explained by Baseball-Reference.com:

The rationale behind Pythagorean Winning Percentage is that, while winning as many games as possible is still the ultimate goal of a baseball team, a team’s run differential (once a sufficient number of games have been played) provides a better idea of how well a team is actually playing. Therefore, barring personnel issues (injuries, trades), a team’s actual W-L record will approach the Pythagorean Expected W-L record over time, not the other way around. Expected W-L is almost always within 3 games of actual W-L at the end of a season (although a recent exception is the 2005 and 2007Arizona Diamondbacks, who both beat their expected W-L by 11 games). Deviations from expected W-L are often attributed to the quality of a team’s bullpen, or more dubiously, “clutch play”; many sabermetrics advocates believe the deviations are the result of luck and random chance.

James’ original formula was simple and straightforward:

W%=[(Runs Scored)^2]/[(Runs Scored)^2 + (Runs Allowed)^2]  (^2=to the power of 2)

Over the years, sabermetricians have developed variations on the original. If you’re interested in that nitty-gritty, you can read more here and here.  I’m using the Baseball-Reference formula:

W%=[(Runs Scored)^1.83]/[(Runs Scored)^1.83 + (Runs Allowed)^1.83]

Back to the Padres.  With 496 runs scored and 492 runs allowed, the Padres’ Pythagorean winning percentage is .503 which would result in a win-loss record of 65-64.  The Padres’ actual record is 59-70. That’s a difference of 6 games. How to explain this? Is it the result of trades or injuries or luck or something else?

The answer is: I don’t know. But I’ve noticed something interesting about the Padres’ runs scored/runs allowed numbers that may shed some light on the question.

With 496 runs scored over 129 games, the Padres average runs scored per game=3.84. And with 492 runs allowed over 129 games, the Padres average runs allowed/game=3.81. The Padres, like all teams, have outliers at the extremes: games where they scored significantly more than their average runs scored/game and games where they allowed significantly more than their average runs allowed/game. The outliers, it turns out, appear to have a relationship to the fact that the Padres’ Pythagorean Winning Percentage is significantly better than its actual winning percentage.

Let me explain.

I looked at the final scores of all Padres games to date this season here. I identified the Padres’ five best games in terms of runs scored and added up the runs scored in those five games (69). I then looked to see the percentage of those runs to the total number of runs scored in the season (69/496=13.9%). I did the same with the Padres’ five worst games in terms of runs allowed (59/492=12%).

The Padres five best games in terms of runs scored account for a greater percentage of the Padres total runs scored than the Padres five worst games in terms of runs allowed account for their total runs allowed.  That tells me that the Padres five best games for run production are skewing the Pythagorean Winning Percentage toward a more favorable record than the Padres actual record.

I then ran the numbers for the top 3 teams in the AL Central. Remember, we started this journey with the observation that the Padres had a better run differential than all the teams in the AL Central.  I wanted to see if the outliers for the Tigers, Indians and White Sox showed any relationship to the difference between those teams actual winning percentage and their Pythagorean winning percentage. I also ran the numbers for the other teams still contending for a playoff birth: Red Sox, Yankees, Rangers, Angels, Phillies, Braves, Brewers, Diamondbacks and Giants.

Here are the results:

Like the Padres, the Yankees and the Rangers are underperforming when compared to their Pythagorean Winning Percentage. But unlike the Padres, the Yankees’ and the Rangers’ five best run scoring games as a percentage of their total runs scored is less than the five worst runs allowed games as a percentage of total runs allowed. For the Yankees, the percentages are the same (11.9%).  For the Rangers, the five worst games for runs allowed % is slightly higher than the five best games for runs scored % (12.3% v. 11.8%).  Perhaps this means that the Yankees and Rangers are due for regression to their actual record. Or perhaps it means that my observation about the Padres is meaningless. Or something else.

But wait, there’s more.

The Tigers, White Sox, Angels, Phillies, Braves and Brewers follow the opposite pattern. Those teams are all outperforming their Pythagorean Winning Percentages.  And for all of them, the five worst games in terms of runs allowed as a percentage of total runs allowed is greater than the five best games for runs scored as a percentage of total runs scored.  The outliers for these teams for runs allowed is skewing the Pythagorean Winning Percentage toward a less favorable record.

The Red Sox are performing precisely how their Pythagorean Winning Percentage expects. The Indians are right around there, too.

And that leaves us with the Giants and Diamondbacks, the two teams battling for the NL West division title. Well, if you can call their performances lately as “battling.”  Both teams are significantly outperforming their Pythagorean Winning Percentage and yet both teams’ five best games for runs scored as a percentage of total runs scored is significantly greater than the five worst games for runs allowed as a percentage of runs allowed. In other words, the Padres, Diamondbacks and Giants all follow the same pattern for their outliers, and yet the Padres are significantly underperforming, and the Giants and Diamondbacks are significantly outperforming, their Pythagorean Winning Percentages.

What does it mean? For sure, the Giants and Diamondbacks have had to contend with serious injuries to key players. And the Padres traded away key players at the deadline. So perhaps those factors are to blame for the topsy-turvy NL West.

At a minimum, it’s further confirmation that the National League West is the most volatile division right now.  And the Padres are in line to be serious spoilers for either the Giants or the Diamondbacks.  The Giants have five games remaining against the Padres (with two starting tonight) and the Diamondbacks have six games with the Padres.

The next five weeks will be interesting. Buckle up.

Henry Sosa, Henry Sosa

Wears his socks high, like hose-a

Henry Sosa, Henry Sosa

Former Giant, now oppose ‘em

Danny Runzler, Danny Runzler

Throw balls in the zone, sir

Danny Runzler, Danny Runzler

No walks, hits or runs, sir

Brandon Belt, hometown boy

Baby Giraffe, just like a toy

Brandon Belt, hometown boy

Three run homer, brings such joy

Danny Runzler, Danny Runzler

That’s too many walks, sir

Danny Runzler, Danny Runzler

Early shower for you, sir

From the bullpen runs Mota

Amped up like on soda

For strike zone, need a decoder

Don’t be the goat-a

Altuve, Bourgeois,

Martinez, Paredes

Who are these young lads

Eating breakfasts of Wheaties

Tie score after four

Four to four, no team would score

Scheirholtz tried on a fly

Martinez shut the door

And on it went

And on and on

Players on bases

No runs could be conned

‘Till the Panda stepped up

With a runner on first

And smacked a two-run homer

It was way, way gone

The Giants limp home, tired and hurt

One day off to rest up, then back on the dirt

The Padres are mashing, need to stay alert

If they want playoff logos on more Giants shirts

I introduced Ladies Links last month in which I highlight and provide links to outstanding women baseball writers. Why Ladies Links?  Because there are terrific women baseball writers on the interwebs who love watching and listening to and writing about baseball and have insightful and interesting things to say.  Giving them a little more attention is a good thing.

Episode 2 features:

• Stephanie Liscio of It’s Pronounced Lajaway — A Cleveland Indians Blog with The Darkest Day in Indians History on the 91st anniversary of the death of Indians shortstop Ray Chapman.  The day before his death, Chapman was hit in the head with a ball thrown by Yankees pitcher Carl Mays.

• Julie DiCaro of A League of Her Own yesterday asked Cubs fans to weigh in on what Cubs owner Tom Ricketts should do to improve the club.  Today, Ricketts announced the firing of Cubs Jim Hendry.  Connection? You decide.

• Katie Sharp of ESPNNewYork with The Week in Yankeemetrics and a post co-written with Mark Simon: Jeter’s Sizzling: Is .300 Doable?  The titles say it all.

• Dianagram of Value Over Replacement Grit with No Plate Discipline, But Likes Being Disciplined With the Pitch? Dianagram discusses those players who’ve been hit by a pitch more than walked in one season.

• Megan Wells of Around the Horn with Our Shenanigans Are Cheeky and Fun. Megan highlights some of the best dugout pranks, with photos!

In last night’s game between the San Francisco Giants and the Atlanta Braves, the Giants scored one run in the top of the first inning. As Matt Cain prepared to take the mound for the Giants to pitch the bottom of the first, the tweets starting rolling in:

Indeed, it’s a common sentiment among Giants fans and observers that if the Giants score the first run of the game–just one run–then the burden is on the Giants starters and bullpen to win the game with that one run of support.

But it turns out–not surprisingly–that the Giants have won only two games all season by the score of 1-0. Matt Cain was the starter in one of those games and got the win. Tim Lincecum was the starter in the other 1-0 Giants victory, but Brian Wilson got the win when the Giants scored in the bottom of the ninth.  The other 14 games where the Giants scored only one run resulted in losses.

The Giants do succeed when they score first, posting a 36-24 record for a .600 winning percentage. In games where the Giants do not score first, their record is 31-33, for a .434 winning percentage.  That’s 31 comeback wins for the Giants–more than I expected. Probably more than you expected, too.

But the real key to the Giants success in 2011 is what my friend Evan Combs (@evancombs) calls “the race to 2.”  We even have a hashtag for it: #raceto2. Let me explain.

The Giants have played 124 games so far in 2011. Four of those games resulted in a 1-0 score (the two Giants victories mentioned above and two 1-0 losses for the Giants).  So in 120 Giants games, one team or both teams scored at least two runs.

In 58 of those 120 games, the Giants were the first team to two runs. In 62 of those games, the opposing team was the first team to two runs.

When the Giants are the first team to score two runs in the game, their record is 50-8. That’s a winning percentage of .860.  

This holds true when the opposing team scores the first run of the game. It also holds true when the Giants take a 2-0 or 2-1 lead, lose that lead and comeback to win. It hold true at home and on the road. Simply being the first team in the game to two runs provides a huge advantage for the Giants.

And the Giants’ advantage when they get to two runs first is bigger than their opponents’ advantage when they get to two runs first.  In the 62 games where the Giants’ opponent puts two runs up before the Giants did, the opponents are 47-15 for a winning percentage of .758.  Very good, for sure, but not as good as the Giants’ winning percentage of .860.

So the next time the Giants take a 1-0 lead in a game, don’t tweet about how that one run needs to hold up.  Tweet about the #raceto2.  And if the Giants are the first team to score two runs in the game, sit back and enjoy.

Last Friday, I wrote about the success Francisco Rodriguez is having as the new set-up guy for the Milwaukee Brewers. Since breaking into the majors with the Los Angeles Angels in 2002, Rodriguez has pitched exclusively out of the bullpen. By 2005, Rodriguez was the Angels’ closer, and an elite one that. Rodriguez closed for the Angels until the end of 2008, when he became a free agent and signed with the New York Mets.  With the Mets, K-Rod wasn’t nearly as proficient or dominant but he still recorded 35 saves in 2009 and 25 saves in 2010.

The Mets traded Rodriguez to the Brewers on July 12. But the Brewers already had a very good closer in John Axford. So K-Rod is now the 8th inning guy for Milwaukee. He’s been very good in that role. His stats through August 11 are in Friday’s post. Since then, K-Rod’s pitched 1.1 innings, giving up 1 hit, issuing no walks and getting 2 strikeouts.

That got me thinking.

Over the last 25 years, have there been any other closers who were traded mid-season and then converted to another role by his new team–either set-up guy, middle relief, or starting pitcher?

The answer: very few.  And none were as successful as K-Rod has been so far for the Brewers.

Roberto Hernandez

Hernandez debuted in the majors with the Chicago White Sox in 1991, starting some games and relieving in others. The next season, Hernandez pitched only in relief, mostly in the middle innings. By 1993, Hernandez was the White Sox closer, garnering 38 saves along with a 2.29 ERA.  Hernandez continued as the White Sox closer in 1994, 1995 and 1996. That last year, he again saved 38 games, this time with a 1.91 ERA. He also was named an All-Star and finished sixth in Cy Young Award voting. After only six years in the majors, Hernandez had earned 134 career saves.

Hernandez continued to shine as the White Sox’s closer in 1997.  In 46 appearances, Hernandez earned 27 saves, posting a 2.77 ERA. But as the trade deadline neared, the White Sox fell behind in the AL Central and decided to sell.  The Sox traded Hernandez and fellow pitchers Wilson Alvarez and Danny Darwin to the San Francisco Giants for six minor leaguers (one of which was eventual A’s and Red Sox closer Keith Foulke).

Like the Brewers with John Axford, the 1997 Giants had a very good closer in Rod Beck. Like the Brewers with K-Rod, the Giants slotted Hernandez into the set-up role. Through the remainder of the regular season, Hernandez posted a 5-2 record and a 2.48 ERA with 4 saves and 9 holds. The Giants won the NL West.

But Hernandez did not pitch well in the NLDS against the Florida Marlins.

In Game 1, Hernandez pitched the 9th inning in a tie game, but only after Julian Tavares had put two runners on. Hernandez gave up the game winning hit and Marlins won the game. In Game 2, Hernandez again pitched the 9th inning in a tie game. He gave up a lead-off single, a walk and the game-winning single, and took the loss. In Game 3, Hernandez came into the game in the 8th inning with the Giants down 4-2. He got 2 outs but gave up a run, and was charged with another run when his inherited runner scored. The Giants lost the series 3-0.

Hernandez returned to the closer role with the Tampa Bay Devil Rays in 1998 and remained a closer with Tampa Bay, and then Kansas City, until 2002, amassing 155 saves.  He then pitched another five years in the majors as a reliever with the Braves, Mets, Phillies, Pirates, Indians and Dodgers.  Hernandez is 12th on the all-time career saves list with 326.

Randy Myers

Myers’ first full season in the majors was 1987 with the New York Mets. He pitched exclusively out of the bullpen that season, but not as the full-time closer. He posted a 3-6 record with a 3.96 ERA and 6 saves. In 1988 and 1989, Myers was the full-time closer for the Mets, totaling 50 saves in those two seasons. The Mets traded Myers to the Cincinnati Reds for John Franco before the 1990 season. Myers became the Reds’ closer, amassing 31 saves. The Reds then replaced Myers with Rob Dibble in 1991. Myers pitched mostly out of the ‘pen that season, but also had some spot starts. He went 6-13 with a 3.55 ERA and recorded 6 saves. After the 1991 season, the Reds traded Myers to the San Diego Padres.

Myers returned to the closer role with the Padres in 1992, and then closed games for the Chicago Cubs (1993-1995), the Baltimore Orioles (1996-1997) and Toronto Blue Jays (1998).  In those six seasons, he had a combined record of 13-22, with a 3.38 ERA and 254 saves.

In August, 1998, the Blue Jays traded Myers to the San Diego Padres, who were battling for the NL West title. And just like the Brewers this year and the Giants in 1997, the Padres already had an elite closer in 1998–some guy by the name of Trevor Hoffman.  So like K-Rod and Robert Hernandez, Myers pitched the 8th inning, for the most part, with Hoffman coming in for saves. Myers went 1-3 for the Padres with a 6.28 ERA and 8 holds.

The Padres did win the NL West title and met the Yankees in the World Series after knocking off the Houston Astros in the NLDS and the Atlanta Braves in the NLCS. Myers didn’t pitch in the NLDS. In the NLCS, he pitched 1/3 of an inning in Game 3, with Hoffman getting the save. In Game 4, Myers pitched the 7th inning, inheriting a runner from Joey Hamilton and giving up the eventual game-winning hit. Myers got the last out in the 9th inning in Game 5, but the Padres were already down and eventually lost that game.

In the World Series against the Yankees, Myers pitched in Games 1, 3 and 4 and pitched well, but played no role in the decisions. The Yankees beat the Padres 4-0.

Myers retired after the 1998 season.

Armando Benitez

Benitez pitched three seasons (1995-1997) out of the bullpen for the Baltimore Orioles before becoming their full-time closer in 1998.  That year, Benitez went 5-6 with a 3.82 ERA and 22 saves. After the season, the Orioles traded Benitez to the Mets where he served as the full-time closer from 1999 through mid-2003. With the Mets, Benitez went 18-15 with a 2.72 ERA and 160 saves but he had the reputation of faltering in big, important games.

In July 2003, the Mets traded Benitez to the cross-town Yankees, who then traded Benitez a month later to the Seattle Mariners a month later. Both the Yankees and the Mariners were in division races in 2003 and both used Benitez in relief, but in a non-closer role. The Yankees, of course, had Mariano Rivera to close out games; the Mariners used Shigetoshi Hasegawa.

Benitez pitched well for the Yankees, going 1-1 with 4 holds, but not so well for the Mariners. In 14.1 innings, Benitez gave up 10 hits, 11 walks and runs. He had a blown save and a loss, which were critical down the stretch. The Mariners ended the season 3 games behind the A’s for the AL West title and 2 games behind the Boston Red Sox for the AL Wild Card.

Benitez returned as a full-time closer with the Marlins in 2004 and it was his best season. He posted a 2-2 record with a 1.29 ERA and 47 saves, his career high.

It was downhill from there, though, for Benitez. He signed with the Giants in 2005 but was not able to repeat his career-best performance from 2004. He was injured on and off with the Giants between 2005-2007 and, again, had difficulties closing out big games. In 90 games for the Giants, Benitez posted a record of 6-8 with a 4.23 ERA and 45 saves.  The Giants traded Benitez back to the Marlins in mid-2007 but he never recorded another save. He ended his career with 289 career saves, good for 25th on the all-time career saves list.

And that’s it. That’s the list. Over the last 25 years, only three full-time, successful closers were traded mid-season and then asked to play a different role for their new team. Roberto Hernandez pitched the best out of the three in the regular season for the Giants in 1997 but was a big disappointment in the NLDS.

To date, K-Rod has pitched very well for the Brewers. Milwaukee is 22-8 since K-Rod arrived and have extended their lead in the NL Central over the St. Louis Cardinals to 6 games. It will be interesting to see if K-Rod can maintain that kind of performance in the playoffs, if the Brewers ultimately win the NL Central or Wild Card.

Just after the 2011 All-Star Game ended, we learned that the New York Mets had traded closer Francisco Rodriguez to the Milwaukee Brewers.  Everyone in baseball was expecting the Mets to deal Rodriguez before the July 31 trade deadline to avoid his onerous vesting option: $17.5 million if K-Rod completed 55 games this season.  At the time of the trade, Rodriguez had already completed 34 games for the Mets and, barring injury, would have triggered the vesting option.

The trade to the Brewers was a bit of a surprise, if only because the Brewers already had a very good closer in John Axford. And so the buzz began: would Axford continue to close games for the Brewers? Would K-Rod take over the closer’s role?  Good questions, considering comments by K-Rod’s new agent, Scott Boras, in the week before the trade:

“He’s a closer, he’s one of the game’s best closers. And he wants to remain a closer.”

But that never happened.

K-Rod the good Mets closer has become K-Rod the very good set-up guy.

Since the trade, K-Rod has appeared in 12 games for the Brewers: 11 appearances in the 8th inning and 1 in the 9th but in a non-save situation.  By every metric, Rodriguez has performed better for the Brewers than he did for the Mets.

Let’s look first at the traditional pitcher stats:

In 42.2 innings for the Mets, K-Rod had a 3.16 ERA, a 1.406 WHIP, and a K/BB ratio of 2.88.

In 12 innings for the Brewers, K-Rod has a 2.25 ERA, a 1.250 WHIP, and a K/BB ratio of 3.20.

These numbers are consistent with K-Rod’s improved performance in keeping runners off base.

Perhaps you’re thinking what I was thinking before I looked even further.  That by pitching in the 8th inning and not the 9th inning, and by avoiding save situations, Rodriguez was pitching in lower leverage situations, and that those lower leverage situations are leading to better performance.

Wrong.

The overall leverage index for K-Rod’s 12 innings with the Brewers as the set-up guy is higher than the leverage index for the 42.2 innings he pitched for the Mets as the closer. Proportionally, too, K-Rod has pitched in a greater percentage of high leverage situations for the Brewers than for the Mets.

Meanwhile, since K-Rod arrived in Milwaukee, John Axford’s saved 10 more games for the Brewers, for a total of 33 on the season.

What this tells me is that Brewers manager Ron Roenicke is using his best bullpen arms in a way that maximizes the Brewers’ chances of winning each game.  K-Rod is succeeding. Axford is succeeding.  And the Brewers are winning.

Hey, Clint Hurdle. Take note.

 * * * * * * * * * *

Next week, we will take a look back over the last 20 years at other closers traded mid-season who then transitioned to other roles–either as starters or as non-closer relievers.

]]> http://www.hangingsliders.com/2011/08/12/so-far-k-rod-is-excelling-as-the-brewers-set-up-guy/feed/ 2 http://www.hangingsliders.com/2011/08/11/baseball-fans-say-the-craziest-things-on-twitter/ http://www.hangingsliders.com/2011/08/11/baseball-fans-say-the-craziest-things-on-twitter/#comments Thu, 11 Aug 2011 20:40:48 +0000 Wendy Thurm http://www.hangingsliders.com/?p=1181

Happy Days gave us Laverne & Shirley. 

Different Strokes gave us The Facts of Life.

Cheers gave us Fraser.

The Daily Show gave us The Colbert Report.

Spin-offs. One great, original idea leads to another great but less-than-original idea.

And so it is with the HangingSliders’ GM for a Day on Twitter series. Okay, there were only two, which hardly makes a series, but they were so good and so funny; a spin-off was inevitable.

You can read the GM for a Day on Twitter series here and here. The posts poked fun at the craziest trade proposals floating in the twitterverse as the non-waiver trade deadline of July 31 drew near.  I fully expected a third in the series, focusing on the craziest waiver-wire trade proposals. But as the great Sam Miller tweeted to me yesterday:

Well, that’s mostly true. A few teams have fans who are knowledgeable and crazy, but not enough to fill an entire GM For a Day on Twitter post.  But every team has fans who are crazy and who love to share the crazy on Twitter with the beat writers who cover their team.

And therein lies the spin-off: Baseball Fans Say the Craziest Things on Twitter.

I’ve gone too easy on San Francisco Giants fans. No more.  During yesterday’s game between the Giants and the Pittsburgh Pirates, a fan tweeted the following to Andrew Baggarly (@extrabaggs), Giants beat writer at the San Jose Mercury News.

I assume Travis Flora was listening to the game, and was neither watching it on TV or at AT&T Park.  But still, if you have access to Twitter, then you have access to the internet and MLB.com. So before tweeting this question to Baggarly, why don’t you first look up the player profiles of Andrew McCutchen and Daniel McCutchen.  Here’s what you’d find:

I don’t know for sure, but I’m guessing these two fellas are not related.

Fans say funny things when they are frustrated. And St. Louis Cardinals fans are frustrated, with the Cards having lost the first 2 games of the 3-game series against the Milwaukee Brewers in the battle for first in the NL Central. But no matter how frustrated you are, you should never, ever send the below tweet to Cards beat writer Derrick Gold, much less to Cards players Daniel Descalso and David Freese:

Asking someone to defend a major league ballplayer’s use of Ke$ha for walk-up music is like asking someone to defend the movie Ishtar. Just don’t do it. And if you must, then don’t do it in a public forum like Twitter.

Some Cardinals fans have more serious concerns than Ke$ha, like how to craft the tweet least likely to be answered by Cardinals beat writer Joe Strauss:

C’mon Daniel. You’re telling Joe that if he answers your question, his answer will be unfair and ridiculous. That’s unfair and ridiculous.

One set of fans not feeling any frustration right now are fans of the Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies are 77-40 with an 8.5 game lead over the Atlanta Braves, who have the second best record in the National League. Phillies fans are feeling good and happy and confident. Joe Kalbach is so confident about the Phillies that he’s taking on Phillies beat writer David Murphy (@highcheese) about  . . . well, I’m not sure. But there sure are a lot of hyphens.

We’ve come to the end of our first spin-off episode. I hope you’ve enjoyed it. The network will be looking closely at the overnight ratings to see if additional episodes should be run.

[Roll credits]

[And now comes the true, final tweet--the one that gets the most laughs]

From Cardinals fan Leeanne Rigsby, for whom the frustration just got to be too much, to beat writer Derrick Goold:

I felt more like reading than writing today. So that’s what I did.

There’s an immense amount of really good baseball writing available on the interwebs. Almost all of it is free. There’s storytelling, humor, analysis, commentary, poetry, and more. You can lost in it for hours. I often do.

Four pieces stuck with me today. Two that really made me think. One that made me laugh. And one that just made me glad to be a baseball fan. I will leave it up to you to figure out which is which.

• David Schoenfield of ESPN’s Sweet Spot Blog: Phillies among NL’s Greatest Ever?

• Larry Granillo of Baseball Prospectus: Divide and Conquer, NL Central: The Astros v. The Peanuts Gang

• Dave Cameron of Fangraphs: Zobrist v. Fielder: A Position Adjustment Primer

• ‘Duk of Big League Stew: When a Small Gesture by Charlie Manuel Meant the World

In the final game of the three-game weekend series against the Red Sox, Yankees manager Joe Girardi penciled in Eduardo Nunez as the third baseman and Eric Chavez as the Designated Hitter. The decision was notable because the Yankees faced right-handed pitcher Josh Beckett. For most of the season, Jorge Posada served as the Yankees’ DH against right-handed pitchers.

No more.

Girardi’s decision, we learned from Joel Sherman of the New York Post, would apply not only in Sunday’s game against the rival Red Sox, but likely for the remainder of the season.

Jorge Posada–the five-time All-Star and Silver Slugger catcher, and a keystone of the Yankees since 1997–has been relegated to the bench.  According to Sherman, Girardi told Posada: “We’re going with our best lineups” going forward.  Were it not for his history and legacy with the Yankees, Sherman wrote, the team likely would release Posada, like the Mariners did with Jack Cust and the Pirates with Lyle Overbay.

Joe Pawlikowksi of River Ave Blues and Fangraphs analyzed the Posada move in both fora today and questioned whether Posada’s benching is the best move for the Yankees, given the projected offensive output of Posada, Chavez and Andruw Jones (who often is the DH against left-handed pitchers) for the remainder of the season and the limitations of playing through August with, essentially, a 24-man roster. Pawlikowski wonders if the Yankees are trying to make the situation so unpalatable for Posada that he will ask for his release or retire.  Read Pawlikowski’s takes here (River Ave Blues) and here (Fangraphs).

Over at Baseball Nation, Rob Neyer picks up on Sherman’s reporting and Pawlikowski’s analysis and suggests that with the Yankees’ league-leading run differential and near lock on the making the playoffs, the team from the Bronx can afford to be gracious toward Posada without jeopardizing the Yankees’ run to the post-season.

That may be so, if all the Yankees care about is making the post-season.

I assume, however, that the Yankees strongly prefer to win the American League East, leaving the wild-card spot to the Red Sox. Whoever wins the AL East is likely to have home-field advantage throughout the American League playoffs. The Red Sox at 70-43 and the Yankees at 69-44 lead the race for the best American League record over the Rangers (64-51), Angels (63-52), Tigers (61-53) and Indians (56-56). Moreover, whoever wins the AL East will likely play the winner of the American League Central–either the Tigers, Indians or the long-shot White Sox.

Yes, the Tigers have Justin Verlander and yes, the Yankees only went 3-4 against the Tigers this year. But wouldn’t the Yankees prefer to have home-field advantage against the Tigers in a five-games series rather than face Jered Weaver & Dan Haren at Angels Stadium in the first two games of the ALDS?  Sure, CC Sabathia will pitch Game 1 against Weaver, but who will pitch Game 2 against Haren? Ivan Nova?

What’s most interesting to me about the current situation with Posada is whether the Yankees would have made the same decision–to bench but not release Posada–if MLB had already expanded the playoffs to five teams, as has been proposed. Although the details of an expanded playoff system are yet to be resolved (i.e. agreed to by the league and the players), it seems inevitable that playoff expansion will happen in the next year or two. The most likely scenario has the three division winners in each league with a first round “bye” while the two teams in each league with the next best records become wild cards. Those two wild card teams in each league then play each other–in either a one-game playoff or three-game playoff–with the winner going on to the League Divisional Series.

What if expanded playoffs were in effect now? Wouldn’t the Yankees be fighting as hard as possible to win the American League East? Surely the Yankees wouldn’t want to be relegated to a one-game or three-game playoff just to get to the League Division Series. Not with their current starting rotation. Would the Yankees have the luxury to be gracious to Posada (if that’s, in fact, what’s going on now) if they were fighting to avoid the wild card spot?

We’ll never know the answers to these Posada questions. But someday the Yankees may face this very decision with Derek Jeter.  And that will be very, very interesting.

Editor’s Note: Guest blogger Avi Wolfman-Arent previewed here the four-game series between the Phillies and the Giants, which the Phillies took 3 games to 1.  Below are his thoughts on the series with a look ahead to a possible playoff match-up. 

By Avi Wolfman-Arent

Fiiiiiiiight!

–Anonymous Middle School Informant

The terms and conditions may change, but make no mistake—we never really leave middle school. Any human relationship or social code, no matter how evolved it seems, owes its essential structure to the hormone-induced madness of junior high school hallways. In those hellish years between sixth and eighth grade, we discover for ourselves what the great English Philosopher Thomas Hobbes understood 350 years ago, that human life is “solitary, poor, nasty, brutish, and short.”

Upon that realization, we begin to construct the meaningless innuendo and metaphor upon which our society rests, all of it designed to divert attention from those cold, Hobbsian facts.

The result? Things like “class” and “honor” and “unwritten rules.”

As if we needed some visual confirmation of the junior-high-schoolishness of it all, the Giants and Phillies provided us a lovely lesson Friday night. Jimmy stole something from Ramon which prompted Ramon to throw something at Jimmy’s friend Shane. Shane didn’t like that and began walking toward Ramon. Ramon’s friend Eli reacted to that advance with a set of jumping jacks followed by an unprompted attack on Shane’s friend Placido (who was kind of just standing there). With that salvo, the scene descended into baseball’s version of “don’t hurt me, I won’t hurt you” kind-of-deal.

Or as they say in lunch rooms and hallways the nation over . . . Fiiiiiiiiight!

Lost in this increasingly heated rivalry between the Phillies and Giants is that fact that the Giants didn’t look like a competitive team this weekend. They showed zero spark in the first two games, and then dropped the third in the sort of toss-up game they have won so routinely this season. With the Giants’ run differential slipping from troubling to crisis level over the course of the weekend, the specter of the Diamondbacks taking the National League West crown grows ever larger.

For their part, the Phillies looked positively resplendent. They took three of four with relative ease and further cemented their reputation as the National League’s best team.

Overall the Phillies have to be pretty pleased with their seven-game season series against San Francisco. The Phillies:

• Won four games and lost three

• Outscored the Giants 24-14

• Faced Lincecum and Cain four times (and admittedly lost 3 of those 4 games)

• Pitched Roy Halladay against the Giants zero times

I’m not among those who think the Giants are the second-best team in the National League (Buster Olney actually called them “1b” to the Phillies “1a), but if they are, the Phillies must like their chances.

In his debut article for Baseball Prospectus, Sam Miller (who writes an Angels blog for the Orange County Register, among other great stuff) wrote about three pitchers who rely almost exclusively on the fastball: Bartolo Colon (New York Yankees), Charlie Morton (Pittsburgh Pirates) and Justin Masterson (Cleveland Indians).  Miller longed for a game where the pitcher would throw only fastballs, as much to see if the announcers were paying any attention at all.

Just a few hours later, Masterson pitched for the Indians in a game against the Twins and through 7.2 innings threw 104 pitches. 103 were fastballs. 103! After a while, the Twins pretty much knew what was coming and still couldn’t do much with Masterson’s fastball, which averages 92.7 MPH.  Masterson gave up four hits, no walks and left the game with a no-decision.

Perhaps it’s no surprise that Masterson leads all qualifying starting pitchers in fastball use: 83%.  What may surprise you is that Masterson sits a top the starting pitcher leaderboard in many other statistical categories. He keeps some very impressive company.

Let’s start with the basics. Masterson broke into the majors with the Boston Red Sox in 2008. The Red Sox used him mostly out of the bullpen, although he did start 9 games that year.  Masterson threw 88.1 innings , accrued a 6-5 record and a 3.16 ERA.  He was less successful in 2009, starting 6 games for the Red Sox but, again, worked mostly as a reliever. He amassed a 3-3 record and a 4.50 ERA before the Red Sox traded him to the Indians in the deal that brought Victor Martinez to the Red Sox.

For the rest of 2009 and all of 2010 with Indians, Masterson posted a combined record of 7-20 with a 4.63 ERA.  You can well imagine that the pre-season projections didn’t think much of Masterson for the 2011 season.

They were wrong.

Fangraphs has a nice chart detailing the pre-season projections for Masterson by RotoChamp, Bill James, Marcel (Tom Tango) and ZIPS (Dan Szymborksi).  All the projections had Masterson with an ERA above 4.00, a FIP above 3.80, a BB/9 above 3.50, and a BAA above .260.

Below is a chart of Masterson’s stats through 23 games started (and 1 short relief appearance) for a total of 157.1 innings pitched.  The right-hand column identifies his ranking for that statistic among qualifying starting pitchers in the majors, through August 4.

ERA: 2.63	9th
FIP: 2.83	11th
K/BB: 2.81	39th
HR/9: .29	1st
Batting Average Against: .238	33rd
BABIP: .291	55th
WHIP: 1.17	28th
rWAR (Baseball-Reference's Wins Above Replacement): 3.6	8th
fWAR (Fangraphs' Wins Above Replacement): 4.3	9th

By relying so much on the fastball, Masterson sees a lot of balls put into play. That’s why he’s nowhere near the leaderboard in K/BB, BAA, BABIP and WHIP.

But look at his ERA and FIP.

Of the 8 starting pitchers with lower ERAs, 7 were All-Stars this year: Jered Weaver, Josh Beckett, Justin Verlander, CC Sabathia, Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, and Jair Jurrjens.  The starters with higher rWAR are pretty much the same list, adding in Cliff Lee, Dan Haren and Clayton Kershaw, and subtracting Beckett and Jurrjens.

All very, very good pitchers. All pitchers you’ve heard about.

And now you’ve heard of Justin Masterson.

Make a point to watch a game when Masterson’s pitching. You will thank me for it.

Editor’s Note: Guest blogger Avi Wolfman-Arent is back this week to preview the four-game series between the Phillies and the Giants, which starts tonight at AT&T Park.  Last week, Avi previewed the first series of the season between these two teams and provided a postscript after the Giants took 2 out of 3 at Citizens Bank Park. 

By Avi Wolfman-Arent

Since last we met, the Phillies gained a right-fielder and the Giants gained a rival.

The Phils, equipped with a brand new Hunter Pence, haven’t lost since the Giants left town. The Giants haven’t done much besides lose since leaving Philadelphia, and now find themselves only one game up on those pesky Arizona Diamondbacks in the National League West.

From a statistical standpoint it seemed only a matter of time before the Giants went on a prolonged losing streak and ceded some ground in the NL West race to the D-Backs. Even at their win-loss apex, the Giants carried a marginal run differential, with pundits attributing the team’s excellent record to a dubious combination of pitching/defense and “magic dust.” The Diamondbacks, on the other hand, boasted a surprisingly robust run differential, led by stealth MVP candidate Justin Upton. Something, as they say, had to give.

And give it did.

In the end it was only a 2-1 series win for the Diamondbacks, but the cumulative effect was much greater. For those, like me, who hadn’t noticed, the San Francisco Giants have their hands full. The Diamondbacks, beneficiaries of a horrendously lopsided deal last year that delivered them potential ace Daniel Hudson and super prospect Tyler Skaggs for the price of one Edwin Jackson, are good now and they stand a chance of being even better tomorrow.

But why wait? The division is within their reach, and the young club aced their first moment in the national spotlight.

What follows now in San Francisco is a four-game series of piddling consequence for the Phillies and tremendous importance for the reeling Giants. The Giants need to get their mojo back, to recapture the magic dust and put the fear of beard back into their National League rivals.

Against the streaking Phillies, they could do just that. And if they don’t….well…we might not meet again this year.

Last week, I wrote two self-congratulatory posts. Wow, that felt good. Nothing like getting a good arm stretch in while you pat yourself on the back. I go across the body–right arm on left shoulder blade; left arm on right shoulder blade. Those back slaps are probably what through my left hip out.

So it’s time to get back in balance, own up to my mistakes. To humbly come before you for forgiveness. Go easy on me. Please.

In last week’s posts, I highlighted two of my pre-season “Players to Watch”–players whom I’d predicted would be critical to their team’s success (or failure).  The first was Dan Uggla. Yes, I know you’re thinking, “Hey, Uggla was horrendous in April, May and June and the Atlanta Braves posted the second best record in the National League, so what gives?”  What gives is the Braves starting rotation, which is discovering the tried-and-true baseball adage: “Regression’s a bitch.”  And just as the pitching has slipped, Uggla finally found his stroke and is in the midst of a 25-game hitting streak. There is no question Uggla is critical to the Braves’ success down the stretch.

The second was Bronson Arroyo. No mystery here. Arroyo’s been god-awful, perhaps the worst starting pitcher in the majors this year, who still has a spot on a major league roster. And the Cincinnati Reds have suffered from Arroyo’s failures. Big time.

Which brings us to two of my “Players to Watch” who I got completely wrong. Yes, even with one-third of the season remaining, we know now that these players’ success or failure has not–and will not–drive their teams’ ultimate success or failure this season.

Derek Jeter, Shortstop for theNew York Yankees

In hindsight, my pick of Derek Jeter as the Yankees’ Player to Watch was a cop-out. I was drawn into all the pre-season attention on his contract negotiations with the Yankees and his not-so-slow decline in skills and performance. I didn’t focus enough on the rest of the Yankees roster and how even a mediocre performance by Jeter would unlikely slow down the Bronx Bombers.  That’s exactly what’s happened.

Sure, the Yankees’ captain reached the 3,000 hit milestone with a one-game performance for the ages. And Jeter had another 5-for-5 game last night against the Chicago White Sox, a game the Yankees won 18-7.

But Jeter has otherwise posted the mediocre season many expected and the Yankees still find themselves with the second best record in the American League and with a near lock on the spot in the post-season. In fact, Jeter has the lowest wOBA of any regular on the Yankees, save for his best friend Jorge Posada.

I was dead wrong on this one. Curtis Granderson, Robinson Cano, Mark Texiera, Nick Swisher, CC Sabathia, Bartolo Colon, Freddy Garcia, Nate Robertson and Mariano Rivera have been much more pivotal to the Yankees success in 2011 than Derek Jeter.

Todd Helton, First Baseman for the Colorado Rockies

Todd Helton is the anti-Jeter this season. Like Jeter, Helton has played his entire career for one team and has seen his performance suffer a steady decline over the last few years.  Unlike Jeter, Helton has been resurgent this season and yet it hasn’t helped the Rockies from having their season spiral out of control.

When I picked Helton as my Player to Watch for the Rockies, I noted that Helton had put himself through a rigorous off-season workout regimen with the hope of regaining the strength and agility needed to perform well at a major league level.  I thought that the Rockies needed a big year from Helton to anchor the team’s two young superstars– Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez–in order to challenge for the National League West title.

Well, Helton’s had a very good year. So far he’s posted a slash line of .309/.393/.482.  That’s a .60 increase in his batting average and a more than .100 increase in his slugging percentage over his 2010 totals.  Helton is second on the Rockies behind Tulowitzki in HRs (12), doubles (21) and leads the team in singles and walks.  He’s been resurgent, alright.

Unfortunately for Helton and the Rockies, the rest of the team has been beset by injuries (most notably to Carlos Gonzalez and Jorge De La Rosa) and a host of underperforming position players (Dexter Fowler, Jonathan Herrera, Ian Stewart, Seth Smith and Ryan Spillborghs ) and pitchers (Jason Hammel, Aaron Cook and Huston Street).  Baseball Prospectus gives the Rockies a .3% chance of making the playoffs.  Ouch.

As good as Helton’s been this season, he has not been the bellweather for the Rockies I had predicted.

* * * * * * * * * * * * * *

Stay tuned. I’m sure I will plenty more egg on my face before the season is over. And maybe a few more back slaps, too.

]]> http://www.hangingsliders.com/2011/08/04/calling-these-early-the-players-to-watch-who-i-got-completely-wrong/feed/ 0 http://www.hangingsliders.com/2011/08/01/hangingsliders-on-the-air-with-chris-andrews-espn-1450/ http://www.hangingsliders.com/2011/08/01/hangingsliders-on-the-air-with-chris-andrews-espn-1450/#comments Mon, 01 Aug 2011 21:13:13 +0000 Wendy Thurm http://www.hangingsliders.com/?p=1128

The post you’ve all been waiting for.  A link to my radio spot last Friday on ESPN 1450 in Reno, Nevada with host Chris Andrews. Chris and I talked Carlos Beltran, Zack Wheeler, Charlie Manual, and how baseball poetry and baseball analysis work hand-in-hand.

You really don’t want to miss this.  Give a listen.

Last week, Baseball Prospectus Editor-in-Chief Steven Goldman wrote a thought-provoking piece over at Baseball Nation entitled Hanley Ramirez and I, On the Shivering Highway. In it Goldman discussed mid-life crises, nervous breakdowns and living up to your god-given talents. It was a mediation of sorts, a reflection by Goldman on his current station in life and a plea to Florida Marlins shortstop Hanley Ramirez not to squander his immense talent.

No summary from me can do justice to Goldman’s post. Read it if you haven’t already. And if you’ve read it once, read it again. I’ve read it 10 or 12 times.

I’m particularly drawn to Goldman’s opening paragraph:

I come to you today as a writer on the edge of a nervous breakdown. Well, over the edge of one, actually. I am deeply in the midst of a nervous breakdown, passing bent mile marker 50 out of 100, 1000, or 1,000,000 on the shivering highway. I am 40 years old, consumed with work I don’t necessarily want to be doing, and obsessed with the idea that I should chuck it all and do the work that I want to do, except that I don’t trust myself to do it even if I had the opportunity. Worse, I am torn by the inherently conflicting ideas that I am running out of time to do the things I am not talented enough to accomplish. I know I am not Hanley Ramirez.

You see, I found myself in a somewhat similar situation this past year. Not the nervous breakdown part so much (although I certainly had my moments), but the feeling of being consumed by work I was good at but didn’t want to keep doing. Work for which I had studied and trained for many years. Success that I worked very, very hard to achieve. There were awards and Top 100 lists, a very nice office, and an even nicer monthly paycheck.

But something was missing. Well, a lot of things, actually. But mostly, after nearly 20 years, I lost my desire. My desire for the grind, my desire for more awards, my desire for a bigger, nicer office, and an even bigger monthly paycheck.

So I quit.

It was the hardest thing I’ve ever done.

And I’ve never been happier.

Like Goldman, I knew I wasn’t as talented in my profession as Hanley Ramirez is in baseball. Not that I overachieved, either. But, in the end, I decided it was best to “go out” on top. I’d accomplished what I wanted to accomplish in that world and it was time to pursue other projects and passions.

Kinda, sorta like Gil Meche.

Meche pitched 10 seasons in the majors, the first six with the Seattle Mariners and the last four with the Kansas City Royals. He left Seattle with a 55-44 record and a 4.65 ERA. The Royals then signed Meche to a 5-year/$55 million contract before the 2007 season. Meche pitched well in 2007 and 2008–very well, in fact. In those two seasons, his ERA was under 4.00, he had a K/BB ration over 2.6, and he gave up fewer than 1 HR per 9 innings pitched. His fWAR in 2007 was 4.4, and in 2008 it was 5.0.

Meche certainly wasn’t the best starting pitcher in baseball in either 2007 or 2008. But looking only at Fangraphs’s fWAR, Meche was better than 55 out of 79 qualifying starters in 2007 and better than 71 out of 86 qualifying starters in 2008. So no, he wasn’t the Hanley Ramirez of starters, but he was very good and brought a lot of value to the Royals.

Meche developed back issues in 2009 and after a strong start to the season, his effectiveness dried up. As Joe Posnanski chronicled at the time (and since), the Royals kept running Meche out to the mound and let him pitch way too deep into games.  Meche was never the same again. He finished the 2009 season 6-10 with a 5.06 ERA, a K/BB ratio of 1.64 and an fWAR of only 1.4.

2010 was no kinder to Meche.  He started only 9 games, pitched in relief in 11 others and then had season-ending surgery in July.  His line in 2010 was 0-5 with a 5.69 ERA and an fWAR of -0.2.  And Meche still had one year remaining on his 5-year/$55 million contract.

Meche didn’t come back from his 2010 surgery. He retired from baseball in January, walking away from the $12 million still owed to him by the Royals. A lot of folks questioned the wisdom of Meche’s decision, given that his contract with the Royals was guaranteed whether he threw another pitch or not.  But Meche didn’t want to be paid money he felt he didn’t deserve. He’d achieved what he could achieve in major league baseball, and it was time to move on to something else, with his self-respect intact.

Who knows if I achieved the same level of success in my career as Gil Meche did in his. There’s no fWAR statistic for lawyers (although that would be very interesting to develop). And I certainly don’t have as much money in the bank as Meche undoubtedly does. But I had a damn good career, made some good dough (most of it still in the bank) and when it was time to go, I did.

There’s some irony to the fact that my new passion is baseball writing, precisely the thing that has brought Steven Goldman to the precipice.  For me, baseball writing is new, fun, exciting and creative–all things that were missing in my old career and may be missing from Goldman’s.

As Goldman so eloquently urged Hanley Ramirez not to squander his talents like Mickey Mantle did, I urge Steven Goldman: Think about Gil Meche. You can stop, get off, and start something new. It’s not as scary as you think.

My 10-year old son asked me to write a haiku about the inside of a baseball.  I don’t say yes to all of his requests, but on this one I said, “Why not.”

Cork and rubber ball

A small, densely packed center

Core of a baseball

Covered by rubber

One black layer and one red

This part is “the pill”

Gray wool yarn is next

Spun and spun and spun some more

Feet and feet of yarn

Windings they are called

Three made of grey woolen yard

One of white cotton

Four windings in all

Cover the pill, which surrounds

The cork, rubber core

Then comes the cowhide

Two white pieces, stitched as one

Ball’s outer layer

One hundred and eight

Red stitches of waxed red thread

Complete the baseball

If you’ve been lurking around HangingSliders since before the season began, you will hopefully recall my “Player to Watch” series. For those of you new to HangingSliders, let me fill you in.

In the lead-up to Opening Day, I identified a “player to watch” for each team. In some instances, the “player to watch” was a former All-Star hoping for a bounce-back year. In others, it was a young player looking to make a name for himself or a steady, but unremarkable veteran.

The keynote of my “player to watch” selections was this: the player would be critical to his team’s success in 2011; a bellweather of sorts.  As the “player to watch” goes, I predicted, so will go the team.

My “player to watch” for the Cincinnati Reds was starting pitcher Bronson Arroyo. You can read the full write-up here. The key points:

The Cincinnati Reds can hit. And walk. And hit for power. The Reds will score runs in 2011. The question is whether the Reds young pitching staff will keep more runs from scoring than the Reds hitters can put up on the scoreboard.

* * * * * *

Arroyo had a very good year in 2010, reaching 17 wins for the first time in his career. He also posted the lowest WHIP (walks + hits/inning) and BAA (batting average against) since he pitched as a reliever for the Red Sox in 2003.

Arroyo is the “granddaddy” of the Reds’ starting rotation. At 34, he’s seven years older than the next oldest starter (Edinson Volquez) and eleven years older than the youngest starter (Mike Leake). Leake had an erratic spring. Homer Bailey and Johnny Cueto will be coming off injuries. Volquez has not been sharp out of the gate for the Reds in 2011. That’s a lot of youth and early injuries for the starters.

To repeat as NL Central champions, the Reds need Arroyo to anchor the rotation: to make his starts, to go deep into games, and to meet or exceed his performance from 2010. As Bronson Arroyo goes in 2011, so go the Reds.

After a career year in 2010, Arroyo’s been one of the worst starting pitchers in the majors this season. This is due largely to his penchant for giving up home runs to the opposing team. In 21 games, he’s yielded 30 long balls, which is 1 shy of his career high of 31 over the course of the entire 2009 season. His home runs/9 innings pitched ratio is 2.12, nearly double the 1.21 from 2010. Prior to this season, Arroyo’s career high for HR/9 was 1.31, in 2008.

Overall, Arroyo’s posted a 5.58 ERA and an even higher FIP of 5.68. Cincinnati’s defense isn’t letting Arroyo down; it’s the other way around.

Arroyo’s poor season has had disastrous results for the defending National League Central champs.  In 2010, the Reds were 20-13 in games started by Arroyo. The Reds finished the season at 91-71. That means Arroyo contributed directly to 22% of the Reds’ wins in 2010.

So far this season, Arroyo’s personal record is 7-9. The Reds’ record in games started by Arroyo is 9-12.  With the Reds sitting at 50-55 heading into Friday night’s game against the San Francisco Giants, Arroyo’s contributed to only 14% of the Reds’ wins but 22% of the Reds’ losses.

It’s true that the Reds’ offense has not kept pace with 2010 production, either. To date, the Reds have scored 488 runs, which puts them on pace to score 750 runs for the season, compared to 790 runs scored in 2010.

But Arroyo’s been a huge disappointment for Dusty Baker’s team in 2011 and huge reason the Reds find themselves 5 games under .500 and in 4th place in the mediocre National League Central.

On this one, I nailed it. As Bronson Arroyo’s gone in 2011, so have the Cincinnati Reds.

Editor’s Note:  Guest blogger and Phillies fan Avi Wolfman-Arent wrote a Giants-Phillies series preview for HangingSliders here. Today Avi shares his thoughts on the recently-completed series at Citizens Bank Park. Avi will be back here next week when the Phillies and Giants meet again, this time for a four-game series at AT&T Park. 

You can respond to this post in the comments below or directly to Avi at awolfmanarent@gmail.com.

By Avi Wolfman-Arent

Another summer series has come and gone. To this Phillies fan, this series with the Giants was just that—another summer series. Nothing to see here. No playoff implications or weaknesses exposed. Move along.

No doubt, the easily agitated pundits in Philadelphia will read impending doom into this playoff series loss. So before anyone descends into apoplexy, let’s examine the facts:

• The Phillies outscored the Giants in this series

• Neither of the Phillies top two pitchers started

• Both of the Giants top two pitchers started

• Matt Cain pitched 7 innings without allowing an earned run even though he only recorded one strike out. It was hardly a dominant performance

• Until losing the series to the Giants, the Phillies had won each of their past nine series

• To this point, the Phillies have played one game better than their Pythagorean record. The Giants have played six games better

• The Phillies still have the best record in major league baseball and a five game lead over the Atlanta Braves in the NL East

OK. Now that we’ve all taken that deep breath and promised not to use one series as proof positive that the Phillies must acquire Hunter Pence at any cost, I present a short summary of the series with turning points in each game.

Game 1

Turning point: Although Chase Utley’s inside-the-park home run was easily the coolest play of the game, it was Raul Ibanez’s three-run home run in the first inning that gave the Phillies a 4-1 lead and definitively turned the contest Philadelphia’s way. In order to win the game after the Ibanez homer the Giants would have to do something they’ve only done 32 times this year, score 5 or more runs.

Game MVP: The viral agents circulating in Tim Lincecum’s gastrointestinal tract. Because of those savage cells the Giants were forced to start Barry Zito.

Observation of some interest: Even though the teams combined for nine runs, the game lasted just over two hours. That’s because eight of the nine runs came via the home run and neither team sustained much of a rally. It was a pitcher’s duel in slugfest’s clothing.

Result: Phillies 7 Giants 2

Game2

Turning point: In a tight-fisted affair, there were no obvious momentum turners, so I’ll give the honors to Javier Lopez and his solid relief appearance in the eighth inning. With pinch-runner Wilson Valdez at second and the Phillies down just one, Lopez retired Michael “the human out” Martinez on a fly out to right field and Chase Utley on a line drive to center to end the threat. Escaping that trouble cleared the path for Brian Wilson’s entrance in the 9th inning.

Game MVP: I’ll reluctantly give the MVP to Matt Cain. As stated above, I didn’t find Cain’s performance particularly compelling. But in a low-scoring game with pretty weak runs scored on both sides, you kind of have to slobber praise all over the winning starting pitcher.

Observation of some interest: For some reason, ESPN “analyst” Nomar Garciaparra would not stop suggesting that players try to bunt for base hits. He even praised Aubrey Huff for a bunt attempt where Huff laid down an absolutely perfect drag bunt and still wasn’t quick enough to get to first in time. If a perfectly placed bunt doesn’t work for you, then you probably shouldn’t be bunting.

Result: Giants 2 Phillies 1

Game 3

Turning point: The real turning point occurred some time before the start of the game when it was announced that the day’s pitching matchup would feature Tim Lincecum v. Kyle Kendrick. Game. Set. Match. If you’re looking for an actual in-game momentum-shifter, I’d suggest Philly 3B Michael Martinez’s mega-blunder in the 7th inning. With runners at 1st and 3rd and one out, Martinez first bobbled a chopper that, if fielded cleanly, would have allowed him a clean opportunity to throw Nate Schierholtz out at home plate. ThenMartinez, desperate to save the play, flung the ball over Ryan Howard’s head allowing Chris Stewart to score from first. Double fail. And with that the Phillies’ chances of winning this game went from “still in it” to “not a freaking chance,” mathematically speaking of course.

MVP: Tim Lincecum, and this time the man himself and not the disease contained by his vessel. Lincecum struggled with control at times, but still struck out six and kept the Phils offense under wraps most of the night.

Observation of some interest: The Giants gained two players with double-digit home runs on the season in one night after not having any through the season’s first 104 games. The first, Carlos Beltran, arrived to the Giants via trade and brought his 15 HRs with him. The second, Pablo Sandoval, notched his 10th homer of the season during the second inning.

Result: Giants 4 Phillies 1

Concluding Thoughts: The Giants won a series on the road against the team with the best record during the same three-day period that they acquired the best hitter on the free agent market. Good times.

The Phillies get to lick their wounds by sending Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee to the hill on consecutive nights. Catharsis!

Last Tuesday, when 12 days still remained until Major League Baseball’s non-waiver trade deadline, I wrote a post about the craziest trade proposals floating in the twitterverse. The post was a tongue-in-cheek response to a tweet the day before by Joe Strauss, who covers the St. Louis Cardinals for the St. Louis Post Dispatch:

Readers liked the post. And the crazy twitter trade proposals kept coming.

As the week progressed, some teams drew closer to contention (Pirates, Twins, White Sox), some fell further away (Indians, Reds, Rays, Rockies), and others continued to lead the pack (Phillies, Braves, Giants, Red Sox, Yankees, Rangers).  The muddle in both the National League Central and American League Central remained, well, muddled.

For those teams looking to add offense, the jewel of the trading season would be New York Mets right fielder Carlos Beltran. Braves fans liked the idea of adding Beltran a lot. One problem seemed to be where Beltran would play. Here’s a tweet to David O’Brien, the Braves beat writer for the Atlanta Journal & Constitution.

You see, Gonzo is Alex Gonzlez. He plays shortstop for the Braves. Beltran is an outfielder and hasn’t played a single inning in any infield position since breaking into the majors in 1998.  Hence O’Brien’s confusion.

Rumor had it that the Mets were demanding highly-touted prospects in return for Beltran, preferably pitching prospects. Rumor also had it that the Braves were unwilling to part with any of their top pitching prospects–Julio Teheran, Mike Minor, Arodys Vizcaino and Randall Delgado.

These rumors drove Braves fans to distraction. If they couldn’t get Beltran and have him play shortstop, perhaps they could get a different outfielder to play centerfield for the Braves.  Another tweet to David O’Brien:

Well, dminor85, White Sox right fielder Carlos Quentin would be a perfect fit in center field, if he had ever played that position before.

In the last 24 hours, trade angst has gone from bad to worse for Braves fans. Late Tuesday night, All-Star catcher Brian McCann strained his oblique and was placed on the 15-day disabled list. McCann’s injury occurred in the Braves’ 19 inning game against the Pirates that ended on a hotly disputed play at the plate. Then news broke Wednesday morning that the Mets had made a deal to trade Beltran to Giants in exchange for Giants pitching prospect Zack Wheeler.  Now what?

Astros All-Star outfielder Hunter Pence!

Oh, okay.  The Braves do not want to trade any of their top pitching prospects, including Mike Minor. But they’ll do it if the package includes a prospect,  a major league starting pitcher (Lowe) and the current center fielder (Shafer)?

But why stop there? If you’re going to propose an unrealistic trade, you might was well really go for it.

That’s right–let’s trade 2 highly touted pitching prospects and not just 1!

Perhaps a sense of realism is settling in for Braves fans. If the Braves are not going to trade for Carlos Beltran or Hunter Pence, perhaps they should look closer to home–a former hometown favorite, that is.

Get ‘er done, Braves.

Editor’s Note: As the Giants prepare to take on the Phillies in a rematch of the 2010 National League Championship Series, I’ve invited guest blogger and Phillies fan Avi Wolfman-Arent to provide his thoughts on the series.

Avi lives in West Philadelphia where he congregates with other members of the coddled “young professional” demographic. He’s most happy when his schedule allows for uninterrupted viewing of the Phillies game. One day he hopes to own a pet, preferably a cat. You can respond to this post in the comments below or directly to Avi at awolfmanarent@gmail.com.

By Avi Wolfman-Arent

Secret confession: I like the San Francisco Giants.

I don’t wish them well in a win-loss sort of way, but I like them. My default attitude toward opponents usually lies somewhere between condescension and loathing. Respect is rare, admiration even less common. Yet I find myself fascinated by the Giants’ recent success.

For starters, they are the greatest house of cards ever constructed, an impossible balance between brilliant internal block-building and woeful free-agent signing. If you’ll recall, the Giants spent 42% of their 2010 payroll on the trio of Barry Zito, Aaron Rowand and Edgar Renteria and still won the World Series. With a healthy portion of their payroll squandered, the Giants needed to cram a championship-caliber team onto what was left of their budget. Remove Mark DeRosa’s $6 million and Benjie Molina’s $4.5 million from the equation and the Giants ended up spending approximately $50 million on the players who led them to the World Series. Only two teams, the Padres and the Pirates, spent less than $50 million in 2010.

The Giants stretched that $50 million by amassing an uncommonly good stockyard of homegrown talent. In just six years, the Giants promoted Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, Jonathan Sanchez, Madison Bumgarner, Buster Posey, and Pablo Sandoval. That’s six productive big league players in six years from the same minor league system. You’d be hard pressed to find many recent parallels.

From where I sit, the Giants seem to operate under an inverted economic model by which their best players make less money than their less-good players. Perhaps it’s because the Giants reward players with big contracts based on past performance, only to see those players quickly decline. It’s happened this year with Aubrey Huff, Cody Ross and Andres Torres. I imagine the Giants aren’t trying to overpay, but it does seem to happen with some regularity.

And yet, the Giants keep on winning.

That improbable winning is made infinitely more amusing by the way they carry themselves as they win. Fans casually call the Giants’ best pitcher the “freak,” their best position player carries his weight like the Michelin man, and their best relief pitcher counts himself among Charlie Sheen’s inner circle. These Giants even unleashed Aubrey Huff’s inner Chippendale dancer. I would imagine it takes a perfect cocktail of winning baseball, fan ingenuity, and clubhouse alchemy to give Aubrey Huff such flavor. Bravo, San Francisco.

I am so taken by the Giants’ cast of characters that I “pitched” a movie idea about them over in a fanpost at Baseball Nation.

Title: Market Street Mayhem

Plot Summary: Baseball players by day, contract killers by night, there is no hit too big for assassin duo Pablo Sandoval and Brian Wilson. With Wilson bringing the brawn, and Sandoval providing the uncomfortable ethnic humor, no one can top this pulverizing pair. But what happens when GM Brian Sabean puts a clause in each of their contracts that explicitly forbids murder? Will the Beard and the Panda cave? Or will they keep on kicking ass? Cameo by Bud Selig as an underground informant in the mold of Huggy Bear.

Tag line: They might be Giants, they might be killers, they might be both.

If you hadn’t already realized it, Market Street Mayhem is an artistic metaphor for my secret crush on the Giants, a team that embraces its own imperfections to the point that they actually feel like strengths.

Every team has weaknesses, but few wear them so well.

*****

Of course, if you read this blog you probably know plenty about the Giants and clicked on this link to hear some greasy, cheesesteak-guzzling Philadelphian preview of the upcoming NLCS rematch between my team and your team. On that I shall deliver.

As I see it, this series is a case of “Will the Giants blow it?” The Giants get the luxury of lining up two of their best arms (Lincecum and Cain, plus Barry Zito) against the back-end of the Philly rotation. The first game match-up between Lincecum and Vance Worley and the third game match-up between Cain and Kyle Kendrick favorSan Francisco. The middle game, a showdown between Barry Zito and Cole Hamels, favors the Phillies.

There’s some controversy in Philadelphia regarding whether or not Bruce Bochy purposefully rested his own starters during the All-Star Game in order to set up these pitching match-ups.  It’s doubtful Bochy did such a thing, but the questions add intrigue to the series.

And now, my thoughts on the Philadelphia Phillies you will see in this series.

The Phillies are the best team in the National League. Over the past 93 days they’ve occupied the top spot in the NL 85 days and never sat more than 1.5 games off the pace. They have the league’s best run differential along with its stingiest defense. Their offense, long fretted over, has actually been league average. And that’s without Chase Utley for much of the first half along with sustained injuries to Shane Victorino, Placido Polanco, Jimmy Rollins and Carlos Ruiz. Anything less than a perfect postseason record will register as a disappointment in the City of Brotherly Love.

Shane Victorino

The Phillies best all-around position player this year, Victorino steals bases, hits for average, has more pop than you’d think, and covers serious ground in center field. He’s one of the most underrated players in baseball.

Chase Utley 

Maybe Utley won’t hit 30 HR again, but he’s still an OBP machine with plus defensive skills and uncanny base-running ability. Easily the Phillies second best position player, if not their best since returning from his knee injury.

Jimmy Rollins

Rollins is quietly having his best year since the 2007 MVP campaign. He’s still capable defensively and will likely end the year with 15+ HR and 30+ steals. Compared to the other stiffs playing shortstop in the NL, he’s a pretty valuable player.

Ryan Howard

If you think sabermetrics is a bunch of hokum concocted by jaundiced math nerds then you probably think Ryan Howard is having a great year. If you prefer to deal in facts instead of stereotypes you’ll realize he’s on the same downward trend he’s ridden the last few seasons. Still, I wouldn’t throw him back-to-back fastballs.

Raul Ibanez

He’s old. He looks like an extra-terrestrial. I wouldn’t pay him much mind.

Domonic Brown

He’s young. He looks like an extra-terrestrial. Due for a monster series in the near future because he’s so damn talented. Watch out, Cain.

Michael Martinez

You’ll hear a lot about how he’s really “coming on strong” and has a penchant for “delivering in the clutch.” Don’t believe any of it. He’s a career minor leaguer riding a rare hot streak. He is a speedy little fella, though. Keep that head on a swivel, Whiteside and Stewart

Carols Ruiz

He’s better than your catcher, and not just because he has a cool nickname and an SI cover story about his life. I mean he’s actually good. He plays great defense, he’ll take a walk, and he makes good pitchers better by gently stroking their egos. Talking bad about Chooch in Philadelphia is the surest way to get your face broken.

Vance Worley

He’s the Michael Martinez of our pitching staff. He’s playing well even though peripheral statistics — FIP 1.18 higher than his ERA, lowest HR/9 of his career, lower BAbip than at any point in his AA or AAA career — suggest he’s due for an ignominious decline. Unlike Mini-Mart, Worley probably has a future as a big-league starter, just not this good of a big-league starter. He does have cool goggles though, and a killer t-shirt designed in his honor. Consider him our Ryan Vogelsong.

Cole Hamels

You could argue that a stud left-handed pitcher entering his prime is the best asset in baseball. And on that logic you could argue that there is no single player you’d rather have on your team right now other than Clayton Kershaw…followed by Cole Hamels…followed by Madison Bumgarner. Cole Hamels is really really good, and he’s getting better.

Kyle Kendrick

Your friend who doesn’t really follow baseball but recognizes players’ names on occasion will try to convince you Kyle Kendrick is good. Do not believe him or her. Kyle Kendrick is bad. Phillies management knows this but retains Kendrick, I believe, as a sort of tacit threat. As if to say, “Remember how bad this team used to be? Remember?!?!? Mess with us and we’ll blow this whole operation to smithereens. I mean it; we’ll reconstruct the Vet and stick Amaury Telemaco in the rotation. Now fork over $7.50 for the crab fries, tubby.” The Phillies have such little regard for Kendrick that they once pretended to trade him to a team in Japan just to see the stunned look on his baby face.

The key to hitting Kendrick? Swing. Hi-oh!

Citizen’s Bank Park

In the words of Chuck D, “don’t believe the hype, d-d-don’t believe the hype” (minus the stuttering). CBP plays just about league average in terms of offense and defense. People call it a bandbox because people like to make assumptions based on things they saw/heard second-hand. Don’t believe me? Read!

The Phanatic

Still green. Still glorious

The Fans

Have seats, will boo…though not as much as we used to.

Through June 30, Atlanta Braves second baseman Dan Uggla had a slash line of .178/.247/.340 with 12 home runs.  His walk rate was 7.8% and his strikeout rate was 21.2%.  These were shocking stats, shockingly bad for a player known for his power.

In five seasons with the Florida Marlins, Uggla hit 25+ HRs/season and had an average slugging percentage of .488. He also had a fairly discerning eye in the batter’s box. In the 2008-2010 seasons, Uggla’s walk rate was 12.6%, above the MLB average.

And yet on June 30, the Braves had a record of 47-35, 4 games behind the Phillies in the National League East, but leading in the Wild Card.

Shows you what I know. I picked Uggla as my Player to Watch for the Braves at the beginning of the season–the one player whose performance I thought would have the greatest impact on the Braves success or failure. Boy was I wrong.

And now look what’s happened.  Since July 1, Uggla’s slash line is .269/.364/.597 with 6 home runs. His walk rate is back up to 11.7% (although his strike out rate is up too, to 24.7%).  What’s changed for Uggla? He’s hitting a lot more line drives and a lot fewer ground balls. Oh, and his home run-per-fly ball ratio has more than doubled–from 12.4% to 26.1%.

Good for Uggla and great for the Braves, right?

Yes.

For long term, it’s certainly good for the Braves to get Uggla back on track. After acquiring Uggla from the Marlins over the winter, the Braves then signed Uggla to a five-year contract extension worth upwards of $62 million.

But since July 1, the Braves are 12-8, while the Phillies are 13-6, which means the Phillies now lead the Braves by 5.5 games. In fact, Uggla’s mini-resurgence has coincided with a downturn in the Braves starting pitching. And it was the Braves’ starting pitching–in addition to its stellar bullpen–that fueled the team’s success in the early months of the 2011 season.

Let’s take a look at ERA, BABIP and FIP for the Braves top four starters in the periods before July1 and after July 1:

Before July 1, Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrjens were out-performing their FIP (Field Independent Pitching) with very low BABIPs. In that same period, Tim Hudson and Derek Lowe were under-performing their FIP. Since July 1, Hanson’s ERA has skyrocketed while he’s lowered his FIP; Jurrjens ERA is up, but now much closer to his FIP; Hudson’s now out-performing his FIP; and Lowe, well, he’s not performing.

Overall, these four starters have seen their combined ERA and FIP rise since July 1, which suggests the Braves will need a more sustained offense from now through September to make the playoffs, and into October, to be successful in the playoffs. For the Braves, then, having Dan Uggla looking at all like the Dan Uggla of 2008-2010 will be very important.

Maybe I wasn’t so wrong after all.

No, it’s not a post about which golf courses permit women to play and which don’t (although that would make for an interesting story).

Ladies Links is a new feature at HangingSliders in which I highlight and provide links to outstanding women baseball writers.

Why Ladies Links?  Because there are terrific women baseball writers on the interwebs who love watching and listening to and writing about baseball and have insightful and interesting things to say.  Giving them a little more attention is a good thing.

For the first Ladies Links edition, we look at:

• MetsGrrl and her (expected) farewell to Mets outfielder Carlos Beltran

• Christina Karhl, from ESPN’s Sweet Spot Blog, who explains how the young talent on the Phillies has more than capably filled in for injured and departed players

• Susan Petrone, from It’s Pronounced “Lajaway” — A Cleveland Indians Blog that is part of ESPN’s Sweet Spot Network — on the Bizarro Cleveland Indians this week

• Tara Franey, from C-ing Red — A Cincinnati Reds Blog on the Aerys Sports Network — on the how and why of Reds starting pitcher Johnny Cueto

• Lisa Wade, from More Than A Fan, on why the Cleveland Indians should trade for Nick Markakis

Seller or buyer

Question each team must answer

Before July ends

How close to first place

Who’s ahead of us, behind

Is Wild Card in play

If buying, who? when?

Short term fix or long term piece

How much is he worth

If selling, who? when?

Send off year-end free agents

Unload big contracts

Rumors grow like weeds

Endless possibilities

All in a frenzy

Who will stay, who goes

Who finds the gem that sparkles

Who’s full of regret

Like Opening Day

Trade deadlines mark baseball time

Season by season

Right now, there are six teams within five games of first place in their divisions whose starting rotations have a combined ERA above 4.00: Red Sox, Indians, Tigers, Brewers, Reds and Diamondbacks.

Of those teams, only the Red Sox have a wOBA (weighted On-Base Percentage) higher than .330. The Brewers have a starter ERA over 4.00 but a starter FIP under 4.00 which suggests they can get the performance needed from their starters to be successful in the post-season.

The Tigers, Indians, Reds and Diamondbacks must upgrade their starting rotations now if they have any real hope of winning the World Series this season.

There have been 29 World Series played since 1981 (sorry 1994 Expos). Of the 29 World Series winners, 11 had starting rotations with season-ending/pre-playoff ERAs higher than 4.00. Another three teams had starter ERAs below 4.00 but starter FIPs above 4.00.  (FIP stands for Field Independent Pitching and measures pitcher performance using league-average performance on balls put in play).

Of those 14 World Series winners, 11 had a team season-ending/pre-playoff wOBA (weighted On-Base Average) higher than .330.

The only three teams who didn’t were the 1987 Minnesota Twins, the 2005 Chicago White Sox and the 2006 St. Louis Cardinals. The White Sox and Cardinals also had negative wRAA (weighted Runs Above Average). The Twins had a wRAA of 10.2. Team wRAA measures the runs produced by all of the team’s offensive players in that season, as compared to the league average, which is set at zero.

We always knew there was no rational explanation for the White Sox winning in 2005 and the Cardinals winning in 2006 and now we have the proof. The ’87 Twins? Outliers, for sure.

Let’s take a closer look.

Here are the 14 World Series winners with starter ERA or FIP greater than 4.00:

Not surprisingly, the Yankees and Red Sox dominate the list and with offensives that were significantly more productive than league-average in the years they won the World Series. So good pitching beats good hitting most of the time. Sometimes good hitting is great hitting and beats pitching no matter how good.

Now let’s look at the current contenders with starter ERAs above 4.00:

The Red Sox have had all sorts of issues with starting rotation this year. Daisuke Matzusaka posted a 4.95 ERA in seven games, but is now out for the year. John Lackey’s been very ineffective, sitting currently with a 6.70 ERA, although his 4.71 FIP suggests the ERA will come down by the end of the year. Clay Buchholz was effective while healthy but is on the DL now with no specific timetable for return. Josh Beckett and Jon Lester have been the backbone of the rotation, posting ERAs of 2.12 and 3.31, respectively, but Lester’s been on the DL since before the All-Star break. It remains to be seen how he performs once he returns. Newcomers Kyle Weiland and Andrew Miller have filled in but have not been particularly effective. (For more on Weiland and Miller, read Marc Normadin’s post at Over The Monster).

But, as in 2004 and 2007, the Red Sox are killing it on offense. The team wRAA of 119 is already higher than the season-ending wRAA of 10 of the 14 World Series winners with starter ERAs or FIPs above 4.00.  And they still have 66 games remaining. Yes, there’s always room to upgrade the rotation, but the Red Sox’s offense can overcome whatever pitching deficiencies exist.

Brewers starters Zack Greinke and Chris Narveson have FIPs more than 1.00 below their ERAs. Greinke’s ERA/FIP differential is more than 2.00 (5.04/2.86), which suggests that Greinke should substantially lower his ERA between now and the end of the season. Randy Wolf, on the other hand, has an ERA almost 1.00 lower than his FIP. His 3.58 ERA is likely to rise. Together with Shaun Marcum and Yovani Gallardo, the Brewers have a pretty strong 1-5 rotation and are not likely to upgrade. The Brewers are looking for offensive upgrades, particularly at third base.

The Tigers also have a team ERA above 4.00 and a FIP below 4.00, but that is attributable to ace Justin Verlander’s Cy Young-type numbers and to Phil Coke’s ERA/FIP of 4.82/3.61.  Rick Porcello, Max Scherzer and Brad Penny all have ERAs and FIPs well above 4.00.  To seriously complete in the post-season, the Tigers need to upgrade their rotation.

Justin Masterson has been superb for the Indians. Josh Tomlin has been decent, but not great (despite his 11-4 record). The other starters? Not so much. The Indians called up and pitched rookie David Huff on Tuesday against the Twins, shutting them out over 7 innings (after which the bullpen blew the lead and the Indians lost). But that’s one game. If the Indians want to take their surprising season into the playoffs–and succeed there–they need to upgrade their rotation.

The Diamondbacks current starter ERA of 4.06 reflects several very poor outings from Armando Gallaraga and Barry Enright. Gallaraga is gone and Enright has been up and down from Triple AAA. After giving up 6 ER in 3 innings on Tuesday against the Brewers, Enright is a problem, not a solution. Other than rookie Josh Collmenter, the other Diamondback starters are either over or under performing their FIP to a great extent, which suggests significant volatility in the rotation as a whole. Now that the Diamondbacks have lost shortstop Stephen Drew for the season due to a fractured ankle, they will need to upgrade their rotation to have any shot of making the playoffs, much less succeeding all the way through October.

And lastly, the Reds. Due to injuries and ineffectiveness, the Reds have used 10 starters so far this season. Johnny Cueto is now the undeniable ace but everyone else, except for perhaps Mike Leake, has significantly underperformed. Perhaps it’s no wonder the Reds have been rumored to be looking to acquire Ubaldo Jiminez from the Rockies. That trade is unlikely to happen (because it makes little sense to the Rockies) but if the Reds want to stay in contention and make noise in the playoffs, they must upgrade their rotation.

All statistics courtesy of Fangraphs.

The non-waiver trade deadline is just 12 days away.  With so many teams within striking distance of first place in their division, the trade possibilities are endless. And crazy.

Yesterday, Joe Strauss, who covers the St. Louis Cardinals for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, appeared on a local sports radio show, after which he tweeted:

I couldn’t agree more. But who needs to wait six months. Some of trade proposals the fans have come up with are laugh-out-loud funny right now. And they are on twitter. And I’ve kept them.

Here’s a sampling:

The Colorado Rockies are 10.5 games back in the National League West, but that hasn’t stopped Rockies fans from their trading day dreams. Here are my two favorite ones tweeted to Troy Renck, Rockies beat writer at the Denver Post.

Sorry, Rockies fans, but you cannot trade one of your bench players for a top-of-the-line starting pitcher from the Tampa Bay Rays or the Boston Red Sox who, you might have noticed, are much closer to a playoff spot than the Rockies are.

But those are not even the craziest ideas sent to Troy Renck this week. This is my favorite.

What? Albert Pujols? Likely the best player in the majors in the past decade is going to sign with the Rockies to play third base out of respect for Todd Helton aka “the toddfather”?

Really?

Must be the thin Rocky Mountain air.

Staying in the NL West, we turn to fans of the second place Arizona Diamondbacks. It’s funny, the Diamondbacks fans are much less creative (read crazy) than Rockies fans, even though the Diamondbacks are much closer to a playoff spot–only 3.5 games behind the Giants. I think Diamondbacks fans are so shell-shocked to see their team in contention, while the Rockies fans, with their team more than 10 games out, are still suffering from pre-season expectations–and smugness.

But I did find one Diamondbacks trade proposal worthy of inclusion here, as tweeted to Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic.

Yeah, Sean, I can’t imagine why the A’s wouldn’t want more players with weak offensive numbers, in a trade for one of their best relievers. Good thought, though.

I love following John Fay, the Reds beat writer for the Cincinnati Enquirer. Fay receives a ton of wacky tweets all season long and he answers most of them with logic and wit. The wackiness is at its peak right now, as we approach the trade deadline. But I have to believe this one trade proposal tweet was sent in jest. I mean, this fan could not be serious.

Hey Matt, you know the Reds traded Hamilton for Volquez in the first place, right?

Well, at least some Reds fans still have a sense of humor. Like the one who sent Fay this tweet:

I love this tweet because it combines the insanity of sports talk radio and twitter. It’s a tweet to Boston Globe reporter Pete Abraham on a proposal from a caller to WEEI, the leading sports radio station in Boston. I’m fairly certain that the tweeter is making fun of the caller. At least I hope so.

My favorite part of this proposal is that it doesn’t include Adrian Gonzalez. So the Red Sox would lose their left fielder, center fielder and third baseman, and get a first baseman in return. If Prince Fielder played first base for the Red Sox, where would the “hands down first half MVP” play? I’m hoping that caller sticks to his or her day job.

For the most part, Red Sox and Yankees fans haven’t floated crazy trade ideas, at least not on twitter. Doing so would betray their confidence and supremacy. Fans of the Phillies and Tigers also have been relatively rational on possible trades. Braves fans are focused whether the team should trade Derek Lowe (it’s about 50-50 in favor). White Sox fans are too busy complaining on twitter about Juan Pierre and Adam Dunn and, really, can you blame them? Angels fans would like to see a trade, but with the track record of that front office lately, the fans seem hesitant to propose anything, much less something creative or wacky. Rangers fans want a trade for Felix Hernandez from the Mariners in exchange for a bushel full of prospects but that idea doesn’t seem that crazy, at least to me.

And then there are the Twins fans. Prior to yesterday’s doubleheader loss to the Indians, the Twins looked like they had a chance to get back in the race in the American League Central. And with Joe Mauer getting back on track, maybe the Twins still do have a chance. But for Twins fans, trades are way down the list of concerns. Twins fans have had much, much bigger things to scream about this season. I’ll just let this tweet do the talking:

Stay tuned. I have a feeling I’ll be writing Playing GM for a Day on Twitter, Part 2.

It’s been nearly a week since Derek Jeter’s home run off David Price gave Jeter 3,000 hits for his major league career. The hoopla has largely died down, perhaps owing to the All-Star break, or just to the tendency of fans and the media to turn their attention to the next big thing.

As Jeter approached the 3,000 hit milestone, there was some debate over whether getting 3,000 major league hits was a more significant milestone than hitting 600 major league home runs. After all, Jeter is the 28th player in major league history to have 3,000 hits or more, while only 7 players in major league history have ever hit 600 home runs or more. Even the 500+ home run club only has 25 members.

Both of those things are true. And the next player to enter the 600 home run club (likely Jim Thome) should be lauded with the same fanfare as was Jeter. He should be, but likely won’t be, because Jeter is Jeter and Jeter is the captain of the Yankees, and Thome is Thome, and Thome plays for the Minnesota Twins.

But let’s not lose sight of the 3,000 hit milestone. Only 28 players in major league history have achieved that goal. According to Baseball-Reference.com, there have been 3,878 major leaguers who have played at least 150 games in their career in a position other than pitcher from 1871 to the present. (I chose 150 games to approximate one season). Of those 3,878 players, only 28 have gotten 3,000 hits or more. That’s just .72%.

That got me thinking.

How does the 3,000 hit club compare to career milestones in other professional sports?

According to Basketball-Reference.com, there have been 2,234 professional basketball players who played at least 75 games in the NBA, ABA or in both leagues combined between 1946 and the present. (Again, I chose 75 games to approximate one season).  The top 15 players constitutes the top .72% of those 2,234 players.

Only 15 professional basketball players have scored 25,000 points or more in their careers.  Larry Bird, Magic Johnson and Julius Erving aren’t on that list.

Only 14 professional basketball players have recorded 7,000 or more career assists. Bob Cousy and Michael Jordan aren’t on that list.

And football? Pro-Football-Reference.com calculates 644 QBs who have played at least 12 games games in the NFL, AFL or both leagues combined, since 1920. The top .72% of QBs? There are fewer than 6.

Only 5 QBs have completed 300 or more career passing touchdowns. Joe Montana and Johnny Unitas aren’t on that list.

* * * * * * * * * * * *

Big round numbers like 3,000 hits or 25,000 points or 300 passing touchdowns are arbitrary markers. And counting statistics reward not just athletic achievement, but also longevity in the sport. Yet, so very few professional athletes ever reach these career milestones, making them something to cherish and celebrate.

Resiliency.  The ability to recover from adversity. The power to return to an original form. Several players and teams showed great resiliency in the first half of the major league baseball season. That resiliency defined the first three months of baseball in 2011. Resiliency in the face of devastating injuries. Resiliency in the face of declining skills. Resiliency in the face of unfounded criticism. Resiliency in the face of long losing streaks to start to the season. Resiliency in the face of decades of losing. For players and teams, there was much to overcome in April, May & June, and those who did are atop the standings and leader boards.

Let’s start with the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Pirates haven’t had a winning season since 1992, when Barry Bonds and Andy Van Slyke donned the yellow and black. Indeed, the Pirates have only been close to a winning season once in the last nineteen years; in 1997, when their record was 79-83, 2 games below. 500. But this season is different. Heading into the final day of the first half, the Pirates are 46-43, just one game out of first place in the NL Central. They’re playing slightly ahead of their run differential (+1 as of Sunday morning), which is good, but may not be sustainable. The Pirates’ starting pitching–particularly Kevin Correia and Jeff Karstens–have been particularly lucky in the first half and may not be able to keep that luck running in the second half. But the young core of positions players, including (now) All-Star Andrew McCutchen, Garrett Jones and Neil Walker, are scoring runs, and more importantly, exciting the Pirates’ fan base. PNC Park is alive with baseball energy again. After nineteen years of losing baseball, the Pirates and their fans have shown great resiliency this season.

The Boston Red Sox lost the first six games of the season and were 2-10 after twelve games. The starting pitchers were healthy but were underperforming. The offense had not yet clicked. Since then, the Red Sox have played better than .750 baseball, led by All-Star first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, acquired from the San Diego Padres in the offseason. Everyone said Gonzalez’s swing was made for Fenway Park, and that certainly seems to be the case. Gonzalez is batting over .350 and slugging nearly .600. David Ortiz is also having a monster year at the plate. On the other hand, the starting staff has been hit hard by injuries to Jon Lester, Daisuke Matzusaka and Clay Buchholz. John Lackey has been inconsistent, at best. And yet, the Red Sox keep on winning.

One of the keys to the Red Sox success is starting pitcher Josh Beckett. Beckett’s made 17 starts, amassed an 8-3 record and will head into the second half with an ERA of 2.27.  Much like the Red Sox as a team, Beckett’s shown great resiliency this season, bouncing back after an injury-plagued and unsuccessful year on the mound in 2010. Beckett ended last season at 6-6, with an ERA over 5.00.  This season, Beckett’s allowing nearly 1 fewer home run per 9 innings as compared to 2010 and his WHIP (walks+hits/9 innings) is down from 1.54 to .95. Continued resiliency will be the key to the second half for Beckett and the Red Sox.

Two other players in the AL East have shown tremendous resiliency in 2011, for different reasons. Yesterday, New York Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter reached the 3,000 hit milestone, and then some, going 5-for-5 with a home run, a double and 3 singles to power the Yankees to a 5-4 win over the rival Tampa Bay Rays. Whether you judge Jeter by his stats or with your eyes, he’s undeniably in the down slope of his long and very successful career. Yet on that beautiful, sunny day in the Bronx, Jeter rose to the occasion, as he has done so many times, and gave Yankees fans–and baseball fans–a day to remember.

Jose Bautista of the Toronto Blue Jays is still very much on the up slope of his career. And what a steep slope it is. Before 2010, Bautista had never hit more than 16 home runs in a season. He reached that peak in 2006 when playing for the Pittsburgh Pirates. That same season, Bautista hit .235 and struck out in more than 25% of his at-bats. Something changed in 2010. Or many things changed. A new stance. A new grip on the bat. A new swing. A new outlook. Who knows. We do know that Bautista hit 54 home runs last season and just missed recording an OPS (on-base % + slugging %) over 1.000, ending the year at .995. And because there’s very little precedent for a ballplayer to develop such consistent power in his 30′s, there were whispers about performance-enhancing drugs. This season, Bautista’s walks are up, his strikeouts are down and his OPS is greater than 1.000 as we head into the All-Star Break. After Saturday’s action, Bautista was up to 31 home runs for the season, putting him ahead of his 54 home run pace from last year. The whispers remain but there’s not an iota of evidence that Bautista is doing anything other than seeing the ball, squaring up the ball and hitting the ball, hard and far.

Like Josh Beckett with the Red Sox, Matt Kemp of the Los Angeles Dodgers is enjoying a renaissance season after a very disappointing 2010. Heading into Sunday’s action, Kemp has a slash line of .317/.403/.591 with 22 home runs and 19 doubles. His wRC+ is at 179 and Fangraphs calculates his fWAR at 4.5. Compare these numbers to 2010, when Kemp ended the season with 28 home runs, a wRC+ of 100 (league average) and a .3 fWAR. In the first month of the season, Kemp was single-handedly carrying the Dodgers on his back. As the season wore on, though, Kemp’s supporting cast (other than Andre Ethier) became a burden to great too carry on his own. At the break, the Dodgers find themselves in fourth place in the NL West (and in bankruptcy court) and heading nowhere good fast. But in a season of chaos and discontent in Dodgers World, Kemp has shown great resiliency.

Perhaps no major league player has exhibited as much resiliency as San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Ryan Vogelsong. After Giants starter Barry Zito Zito went on the DL with a foot sprain on April 17, the Giants called up Vogelsong to take Zito’s place in the rotation.Vogelsong began his career with the Giants, was traded to the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2001 along with Armando Rios for Jason Schmidt, and promptly got hurt. He then had lead a journeyman’s life, pitching poorly for the Pirates, then in Japan for three seasons, and then back to the States, bouncing around the minor leagues with the Phillies and Angels organizations. The Giants signed him to a minor league contract before spring training.

Vogelsong has been nothing short of a revelation. In 14 starts and 2 relief appearances, Vogelsong has posted a 6-1 record with a 2.17 ERA. According to Fangraphs’ FIP statistic (field independent pitching), Vogelsong’s been a bit lucky on balls in play, which is hard to believe given Vogelsong’s 46% groundball rate and the Giants’ Russian Roulette of infield defense this season. Vogelsong is likely due for some regression in the second half, but he has undeniably been hugely important to the Giants’ World Series title defense this season.

The San Francisco Giants have defined resiliency this season. Their best all-around player, catcher Buster Posey, was lost for the season on May 25 after the brutal home plate collision with Scott Cousins of the Florida Marlins. Their second best all- around player, second baseman Freddy Sanchez, has been out since dislocating his shoulder on June 10, and may not return this season. The offensive force that is Pablo Sandoval broke the hamate bone in his right hand in late April and was on the DL from April 30 until June 13. Outfielders Andres Torres and Cody Ross have battled injuries all season long. And Aubrey Huff is playing like a shell of his former 2010-self, when he batted .290, hit 26 home runs, and had a .385 on-base percentage as a result of a 12.4% walk rate. Huff’s walk rate is down, his strikeout rate is up, and his power has all but disappeared.

And yet, the Giants are in first place in the NL West, with a 51-40 record heading into the last game before the All-Star break. And just like 2010, it’s all about the pitching. The Giants have scored the second fewest runs in the National League so far (328) but have allowed only 320 runs, the third fewest behind the Phillies and the Braves. Not surprisingly, the Giants have the best record in 1-run games in the majors at 25-12.

The experts say that the odds are against the Giants in the second half if they don’t find a way to score more runs. They say the same thing about the Pirates. Skepticism continues to surround Derek Jeter, Ryan Vogelsong and Jose Bautista. The Red Sox appear to be on their way to the playoffs, with Josh Beckett anchoring the rotation. These players and teams have shown the greatest resiliency so far this season. I can’t wait to see what they do in the second half.

This mid-season review will also appear at SportsPie.com: A Gathering Place for Women to Talk Sports.  

This baseball haiku is dedicated to Shannon Stone, who tragically fell to his death at last night’s baseball game between the Texas Rangers and the Oakland Athletics. Stone fell while reaching for a ball for his 6-year old son.

I witnessed a death

I was twelve when it happened

Changed me forever

Wealthy family

Daughter’s bat-mitzvah party

Day at country home

There was a hayride

So many of us piled on

Endlessly laughing

In a split second

The joy and frivolity

Were gone, only horror

A girl, my age, fell

Off the hayride, to the ground

Between front, back tires

Chaos first, then shock

In a split second, our friend

Our dear friend was gone

More than twenty years

Went by, before I even

Looked at a hayride

Then my kids were born

And the nearby pumpkin patch

Offered kids hayrides

I couldn’t say no

My kids should feel the joy, laugh

That is what kids do

So on the hayride

Hugging them close, being safe

But laughing with joy

A boy lost his dad

His guide to loving baseball

Gone in an instant

All who love baseball

We owe it to Shannon Stone

Teach his son the game

Teach his son the rules

The history, the players

The joy of baseball

Don’t worry.  I’m not going down that road in this post.

Just a catchy title for a post about how American League pitchers performed at the plate during interleague games played in National League parks.

The answer? Better than I expected.  And about as well as National League pitchers, but not quite.

There were 252 interleague games this season, 126 of which were played in National League parks.

According to Baseball-Reference.com, in those 126 games, 265 pitchers had at least one plate appearance.  Of those, only 257 qualified for an at-bat.

Of the 257 pitchers with at least one interleague at-bat, 53 recorded at least one hit: 29 American League pitchers and 24 National League pitchers.

Of those 29 American League pitchers, 17 played for the winning team that day.

Of those 24 National League pitchers, 20 played for winning team that day.

Only five pitchers had two hits in an interleague game: Zach Britton of the Baltimore Orioles did it twice; Josh Tomlin (Cleveland Indians), Chris Jakubauskas (Orioles) and Randy Wolf (Milwaukee Brewers) did it once.

Britton’s Orioles won only one of the two games in which he had two hits.  Tomlin’s Indians also lost the day he had two hits. The Orioles and Brewers won the day Jakabauskas and Wolf, respectively, had two hits.

No pitcher had more than two hits in an interleague game.

No pitcher had two hits and a walk in an interleague game.

Only two pitchers had one hit and one walk in a game: Clayton Kershaw (Los Angeles Dodgers) and Ubaldo Jiminez (Colorado Rockies).  The Dodgers and the Rockies won those games.

Six American league pitchers drew one walk in interleague.  Eight National League pitchers drew one walk.

23 American League pitchers had at least one sacrifice hit in an interleague game. Tyler Chatwood (Angels), Carlos Carrasco (Indians), Freddy Garcia (New York Yankees), Wade Davis (Tampa Bay Rays), and Felipe Paulino (Kansas City Royals) each had two sacrifice hits in a game.  Only Garcia’s Yankees lost the game in which he had two sacrifice hits.

28 National League pitchers had at least one sacrifice hit in an interleague game. Daniel Hudson and Roy Oswalt (Philadelphia Phillies) each had two sacrifice hits in a game.  The Diamondbacks won when Hudson did it.  The Phillies lost when Oswalt did it.

Cliff Lee of the Philadelphia Phillies is the only pitcher to hit a sacrifice fly in an interleague game.  The Phillies won that day.

No pitcher had two hits and a sacrifice hit in a game.

Two pitchers had one hit and two sacrifice hits in a game: Daniel Hudson (Arizona Diamondbacks) and Tyler Chatwood (Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim). The Diamondbacks and Angels won those games.

Daniel Hudson recorded one hit in three interleague games.  The Diamondbacks won all of those games.

Clayton Kershaw recorded one hit in two interleague games.  The Dodgers won both of those games.

Tyler Chatwood recorded one hit in two interleague games. The Angels won both of those games.

There were a total of 644 pitcher at-bats in interleague games, resulting in 57 hits. That’s an overall pitchers’ interleague batting average of .089.

American League pitchers had 370 interleague at-bats, resulting in 32 hits. That’s an over American League pitchers’ interleague batting average of .086.

National League pitchers had nearly 100 fewer at-bats than their American League counterparts (274), resulting in 25 hits. That’s an overall National League pitchers’ interleague batting average of .091.

Overall in interleague play, the American League won 132 and lost 120. But in games played in National League ballparks, the American League won only 60 and lost 66.  At home, then, the American League went 72-54.  Although National League pitchers out hit American League pitchers, it did not give the National League as much of an advantage in their home ballparks as they needed to enjoy an overall winning record in interleague play.

This is Part 2 of my 2011 All-Star roster posts. On Friday, we looked at the National League. Today, it’s the American League.

The HangingSliders All-Star selections are unlike any others you’ve read or heard about.  My criteria focus on the best all-around players, not the players who have excelled at only one position or role.  Why?  Because the All-Star game counts! And when it counts, we can’t have the game end in a tie. So the All-Star managers need a roster with maximum versatility, just in case the game lasts well into extra innings.

Here’s a reminder of my criteria for the 2011 MLB All-Stars:

• Active Roster: must currently be on his team’s active roster (as of July 1, 2011)

• Infielders:  must have played at least 9 innings at 3 or more infield positions or have played at least 9 innings at 2 infield positions and 1 outfield position

• Outfielders: must have played at least 7 innings at each outfield position or have played at least 7 innings at 2 outfield positions and 1 infield position

• Catchers: must have played at least 9 innings at position other than catcher

• Pitchers: must have pitched at least 1/3 of an inning but played a great majority of their time in another position (or positions)

The wait is over . . . .

American League Infield All-Stars (all stats as of July 1, 2011)

I’m starting with a sentimental favorite: Omar Vizquel of the Chicago White Sox.  Yes, I know, his wRC+ is 66 (again, meaning that he’s produced only 66% of the runs produced by the average league player).  But for the first time in his long and illustrious career, he played 3 innings at first base this season.  At age 44. And you know what Fangraphs says about Vizquel’s defensive wizardry at first base?  In those 3 innings, he rated a UZR/150 of 97.  I know Fangraphs warns against small sample size UZR/150 numbers, but still, that’s pretty darn impressive.  I’ve also decided to gloss over Vizquel’s not so good defensive metrics in playing second base (96.1 innings) and third base (121 innings) because he’s still kicking it at his usual shortstop position (42 innings).

To balance out Vizquel’s defensive genius, we have Michael Young of the Texas Rangers. Young’s been solid with the bat this year, amassing a wRC+ of 123. But Young is and has been pretty darn awful with the glove. But that hasn’t stopped Rangers manager Ron Washington from playing Young at first base (201 innings), second base (97 innings) and third base (9 innings) this season.  Remember, Wash is the American League All-Star manager, so he knows a little bit about where and when to use Young (OK, Rangers fans. You can stop laughing now).

A nice compliment to Vizquel and Young is Macier Izturis of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (I feel dirty everytime I have to write that team name).  Izturis has played a majority of his time at second base (257.1 innings) and he’s been just below average at that position. But at shortstop–Wow! In 112 innings, Izturis has a UZR/150 rating of 17.5.  I’ve decided to overlook his defensive deficiencies at third base (116 innings with a UZR/150 of -10.8) because Izturis has been surprisingly useful with the bat this season.  As of July 1, he’d posted a very respectable wRC+ of 114. Sure, it doesn’t make up for the Vernon Wells trade, but the Angels will take it.

Rounding out the infield is Michael Cuddyer of the Minnesota Twins. Yes, I know he’s primarily an outfielder, but on a Twins team decimated by injuries, Cuddyer has been the ultimate team guy, playing 160.2 innings at first base and 107 innings at second base. Cuddyer’s defense at first is slightly above average; his defense at second base? Not so much. He’s logged the most innings in right field (359.2). Not a defensive wizard there, but not Lance Berkman either. Cuddyer’s been the Twins’ most consistent bat all year, posting a wRC+ of 127–not far off the pace from Robinson Cano and Dustin Pedroia.

American League Outfield All-Stars

Vizquel was my sentimental favorite in the infield and Sam Fuld of the Tampa Bay Rays is my sentimental favorite in the outfield. I have a soft spot in my heart for overachieving, nerdy Jewish guys. Fuld started out the year with incredible offensive stats and has cooled off considerably (wRC+ 85) but he can surely pick it in the outfield. Fuld patrols left field a great majority of the time (452.1) and his defense there has been well-above average. He’s also played center (34 innings) and right (12 innings) and while his center field defense is pretty meh, his right field defense is off the charts (UZR/150 41.7).

Next is Brent Lillibridge of the Chicago White Sox. Lillibridge is the real deal: good offense and very, very good outfield defense. His wRC+is 130 is middle-of-the pack for American League outfielders but very good for outfielders who’ve played all 3 outfield positions. Lillibridge has played 166 innings in right field, 65.2 in center and 46 in left, and he’s got a positive UZR/150 rating at all 3 positions. He’s also played 19 innings at second base, if you can call a UZR/150 rating of -106.1 “playing second base.”

My third American League outfielder is a bit of a wild card but I just love his versatility. Don Kelly of the Detroit Tigers spends most of his at third baseman (182 innings) and he’s played very, very well there. But he’s also played all 3 outfield positions. His defense has been nothing short of a revelation in left and center field (32 and 25 innings, respectively) and his right field defense (45 innings) has been more than adequate. But there’s more! Kelly’s played 7 innings at first base, pitched 1/3 of an inning, and caught 6 innings behind the plate in last night’s rain-delayed game against the San Francisco Giants. Yes, I know, his offense is, well, not much (wRC+ 83), but it’s certainly the highest among American League outfielders-cum-infielders-cum-pitchers-cum-catchers.

Kelly’s 1/3 of an inning on the mound also makes him my American League Utility Pitcher for the 2011 All-Stars.

American League All-Star Catcher

Not a lot of competition for this position (hint, hint Joe Mauer).  Sophomore catcher Carlos Santana of the Cleveland Indians wins it going away, with 203 innings at first base and 446.2 innings behind the dish. Santana could use some work with the first baseman’s glove, but his time there is keeping him fresh and keeping his healthy bat in the Indians lineup. His wRC+ 113 pales in comparison to the dynamic catching duo in Detroit (Alex Avila and Victor Martinez) but is well above average for American League catchers. Plus, Santana plays a mean guitar.

So there you have it.  The real 2011 All-Star rosters will be announced this morning. The interwebs will then be burning up with debate over whether managers Bruce Bochy and Ron Washington made the right choices. It’s safe to say that the real All-Star rosters will have some superstars, but will not have the best “all-around” players in each league. Only my roster has those.

With the major league All-Star Game just a week or so away, lots of smart baseball folks have weighed in with their list of All-Stars in each league.  Not surprisingly, these smart baseball folks don’t agree on the criteria to use in selecting the All-Star rosters. There are All-Star selections based on season-long projections for the best player at each position; the best player at each position through mid-season; and the players at each position whom fans most want to see. There’s a healthy debate about which of these criteria should be used.

I respect all these smart baseball folks, but I disagree with all of them.  To me, the All-Star Game should showcase the best all-around players in the majors so far this season, not necessarily the best at each position.  And when I say “best all-around players,” I mean those players that have played well all around the baseball diamond.

Think about it.  The All-Star Game counts.  It counts!  The league that wins the All-Star Game secures home field advantage for the World Series.  And even with expanded All-Star rosters that were approved last year, with so much on the line, All-Star managers should have a roster with the greatest utility and flexibility.  Because, you know, the game counts!

With that understanding, I present my criteria for the 2011 MLB All-Stars:

• Active Roster: must currently be on his team’s active roster (as of July 1, 2011)

• Infielders:  must have played at least 9 innings at 3 or more infield positions or have played at least 9 innings at 2 infield positions and 1 outfield position

• Outfielders: must have played at least 7 innings at each outfield position or have played at least 7 innings at 2 outfield positions and 1 infield position

• Catchers: must have played at least 9 innings at position other than catcher

• Pitchers: must have pitched at least 1/3 of an inning but played a great majority of their time in another position

We’ll start with the National League because the National League plays a superior brand of baseball.  Oh, and because I need to get to my daughter’s summer camp theater performance soon and I’ve finished the complex analysis for my National League All-Star roster. That means I’ll post my American League All-Star roster tomorrow. Yes, you’ll have to come back to my blog again.

Without further ado . . . .

National League Infield All-Stars

Leading us off in this category is Allen Craig of the St. Louis Cardinals.  This is actually a tough one because Craig has played most of his time in the outfield (170.2 innings), but he’s also played 3 innings at first base, 41 innings at second base and 11 innings at third base.  Oh, and Craig has a wRC+ of 167.  That’s a fancy way of saying he’s created 67% more runs for the Cardinals than the league average player, adjusted for ballpark factors. That’s good. That’s really good. And when you see the rest of the National League infielders and their wRC+ numbers, you’ll understand why I opted for Craig on the infield.

Craig’s big drawback is that he’s not a particularly good infield defender as measured by UZR/150. Here’s the link to Fangraph’s explanation of UZR/150 because I couldn’t give you a better explanation. Suffice it to say that numbers above zero are much better than numbers below zero.

Next in line is Matt Downs of the Houston Astros. What’s that? You don’t have any idea who Matt Downs is?  That’s a shame because Downs has the highest wRC+ of any utility infielder in the National League. 167!  Downs has also played better than average defense at first base (9 innings) and second base (63.2 innings) and average defense at shortstop (10 innings). Unfortunately, Downs’ primary infield position is third base, where he’s posted a -38.3 UZR/150 so far this season in 86.2 innings. But look at his flexibilty!  And his wRC+ of 167!

Ty Wigginton of the Colorado Rockies also made my National League infield All-Stars on the strength of his offensive production, coupled with his versatility (if not particularly good defensive skills). Wigginton has a wRC+ of 119 so far this season while playing first base (83 innings), third base (371.2 innings) and right field (8 innings). Unfortunately for Wiggington, his best defensive rating is on those 8 innings in the outfield. On the other hand, he’s just below average at third base, where he spends most of his time.

This last infield slot for the National League All-Stars is a tough one because it pits a current San Francisco Giants player against a former San Francisco Giants player. Oh, what the heck, I’ll present them both and then we’ll have an internet vote so the Fans Decide!

Juan Uribe of the Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Emmanuel Burriss of the San Francisco Giants. OK, you can stop laughing now. No, I said STOP laughing. First Uribe. He’s played a decent second base (137 innings), a very good third base (339.1 innings) and a not so good shortstop (21.2 innings).  Uribe’s strong UZR/150 at third base (20.5) makes him a nice fit with Downs, Craig and Wiggington. There is the little detail of Uribe’s wRC+ of 62 but on that score, he’s miles ahead of Burriss, who has an incredibly low wRC+ of 41.  I know, it’s painful even to write.

But Burriss has distinguished himself with his glove this season. Or should I say gloves. Burriss has played first base (8 innings), second base (148.1 innings), third base (17 innings), shortstop (37 innings) and left field (1 inning).  That’s right, Burriss has played all four infield positions and 1 inning in the outfield. It doesn’t get more versatile than that. Burriss’s highest UZR/150 rating is at first base (22.6) but he’s posted a nice 5.7 at second base, his main position.

You have the facts.  Now you decide.

National League Outfield All-Stars

The first pick is a no-brainer: Nyjer Morgan of the Milwaukee Brewers.  By UZR/150 standards, Morgan is an above-average defender in center field (208 innings), and a well-above average defender in left field (13 innings) and right field (57.2 innings).  Morgan’s defensive prowess is matched by his offensive output this year.  His wRC+ is 136.  Even for a time with Prince Fielder (sorry, he only plays first base) and Ryan Braun (only left field), Morgan’s wRC+ is impressive. And to think the Brewers got Morgan from the Washington Nationals earlier this season for a case of beer.

Next is Lance Berkman of the St. Louis Cardinals.  Well, as long as stays in left field.  Berkman has logged time at first base (110 innings), left field (86 innings) and right field (377.1 innings).  His UZR/150 for first base and right field are both worse than -20. But he’s played well in left field, where his UZR/150 is 23.6. But Berkman makes my All-Star roster with his wRC+ of 168.  168! It’s higher than Matt Downs’s wRC+. And he’s had way more at-bats.

Continuing on through the Cardinals roster, we come to John Jay.  (By the way, is it any surprise that Tony LaRussa’s team has so many good all-around players who’ve played multiple positions around the diamond and produced at the plate?)  Jay is mostly a right fielder (238.2 innings) but he’s also played center (82.2 innings) and left (93.2 inning).   Like Berkman, Jay is not a particularly good defender in his “off-positions” of center and left but is an average defender in right field.  But again, like Berkman, Jay’s flexibility to play all three outfield positions is enhanced by his wRC+ of 127.

My fourth outfielder (yes, it’s my list, so I’m having four outfielders) is Jason Bourgeois of  the Houston Astros.  He’s only played 45 games, but he’s amassed a wRC+ of 139 in that time.  His defense is off-the-charts good in right field (41 innings) and exactly league-average in left field (80 innings).  There is that little issue of 7 innings at second base that’s resulted in a UZR/150 of -53.2.  I can’t even imagine what chicanery took place at second place in those 7 innings. It’s just fun thinking about it.

National League All-Star Catcher

This roster spot goes to Ramon Hernandez of the Cincinnati Reds with a wRC+ of 134.  Only Brian McCann has a higher wRC+ among National League catchers who’ve played more than 40 games.  Hernandez makes my All-Star roster because he has played 9 innings at first base.

National League Utility Pitcher

Who else? It’s gotta be the Philadelphia Phillies’ utility infielder Wilson Valdez.  In a 19-inning game against the Reds on May 25, Valdez played 18 innings at second base for the Phillies and then pitched the 19th inning, retiring Joey Votto, Scott Rolen and Jay Bruce in order. The Phillies scored in the bottom of the inning, making Valdez the winning pitcher. That’s the definition of a good all-around player.

Okay folks.  I’m sure you’ll find something to nitpick on my list so have at it in the comments.

Coming tomorrow:  American League All-Around All-Stars

A few weeks ago, I posted my Unofficial Guide to MLB Broadcasters: American League TV Broadcasters Edition.  The post was inspired by my having suffered through one too many Chicago White Sox highlights with Ken “the Hawk” Harrelson doing the play-by-play.  The Hawk is notorious for using only players’ first names when calling games.  Not first and last names.  Just first names.  I don’t like it and I’m not alone.

The Unofficial Guide was born of necessity, given the technological advances that allow baseball fans to watch and listen to baseball games from almost anywhere, at any time.  If you decide randomly to watch today’s game between the Texas Rangers and the Houston Astros, you can use the Unofficial Guide to help you decide whether to watch the Rangers broadcast or the Astros broadcast.  Of course, with the remaining interleague games, you’ll have to refer to both the American League and National League editions. But if you’re randomly watching the Rangers and the Astros, you have bigger problems than having to read two of my blog posts.

Here’s a recap of the categories for TV Broadcasters:

Traditional TV broadcasters:  During the play-by-play, announcers refer to players either by their first and last name together or just the last name.  The analyst follows the same pattern: first and last name again or just the last name. Nicknames are used occasionally, but only those that are well-known and considered positive, like “the Kid” for Giants pitching wizard Tim Lincecum.

Hybrid TV Broadcasters:  The “hybrids” are grounded in the traditional format, but spice it up with lots of first names or lots of nicknames, or both. Sometimes the hybrids broadcast for teams with one or two “special players”– you know, the ones who only need one name like, say, Prince.

Love ‘Em or Hate ‘Em Broadcasters: This category was created for Hawk Harrelson and thankfully, no National League TV broadcasters even come close. Thank goodness for small favors.

And here we go.

Traditional TV Broadcasters

Atlanta Braves

Chip Caray is the lead play-by-play broadcaster for the Braves on Fox Sports South and SportsSouth.  Caray is the grandson of famous Chicago White Sox and Chicago Cub broadcaster Harry Caray. Jim Simpson adds the color.  Simpson played professionally for 11 seasons with the Mariners, Royals, and Angels.  The Braves also broadcast some games on Peachtree TV.  Ernie Johnson, Jr. handles the play-by-play with John Smoltz and Joe Simpson providing the analysis. Smoltz is a 21-year MLB veteran and spent 20 years with the Atlanta Braves.

Both of the Braves’ TV crews fall well within the traditional category.   Yes, there’s the occasional “Freddie” for Freddie Freeman and “Tim” for Tim Hudson but Brian McCann is “McCann,” as well he should be.

New York Mets

Gary Cohen is the television play-by-play voice of the Mets on SNY.  He works with Ron Darling and Keith Hernandez.  Darling spent nine seasons as a starting pitcher for the Mets and was a key member of the 1986 World Championship and 1988 Division Champion teams.  Hernandez spent 17 years in the majors with the Mets, Cardinals and Indians from 1974-1990.

A very nice threesome. No, really. Cohen is easy going and calls its straight. Darling and Hernandez are smart and only occasionally call Jose Reyes “Jose.”  Winners.

Philadelphia Phillies

Tom McCarthy handles play-by-play for the Phillies broadcasts on Comcast Sports Net and PHL 17.  Analysis is added by former big league outfielder Gary Matthews, or “Sarge” as he’s called, and Chris Wheeler, known as “Wheels.”  The Phillies’ website identifies Wheeler as a native of Philadelphia, which you’d figure out within a nanosecond of hearing him speak. And despite Sarge and Wheels having such cute nicknames, this broadcast team keeps it traditional.

Washington Nationals

Bob Carpenter is in his fifth year in the Nationals’ broadcast booth on Mid-Atlantic Sports Nets (MASN).  The color analyst is F. P. Santangelo, who played parts of 7 seasons in the big leagues with the Expos, Giants, Dodgers and A’s during his 14-year professional career.

This was a tough call.  Carpenter is good and easily categorized as traditional.  But there is absolutely nothing traditional about F. P. Santangelo.  Giants fans were treated to Santangelo’s schtick last season when he hosted the post-game call-in show on the Giants flagship radio station KNBR.  He also occasionally subbed in when Jon Miller was off weekends doing games for ESPN.  F. P. is an acquired taste.  I recently heard him shout “Are you kidding me?” five or six times in an inning of a Nationals game.  Over the course of last season, I came to really appreciate his baseball knowledge and overwhelming enthusiasm, but he’s not for everyone.

Chicago Cubs

Len Kasper is in his seventh season as the Cubs play-by-play announcer on Comcast Sports Net and WGN.  Bob Brenley handles analyst duties.  Brenley, a former catcher, spent the majority of his playing career with the San Francisco Giants. He also managed the Arizona Diamondbacks from 2001-2004, winning the World Series with the Diamondbacks in 2001.

If I weren’t such a homer for Giants’ broadcasters Duane Kuiper and Mike Krukow, I’d name Len and Bob as my favorite baseball broadcasting duo.  Perfect combination of baseball smarts and personality.  They let the action do the talking. Len and Bob are so popular, they have their own twitter account.  Check it out at http://twitter.com/lenandbob.

Cincinnati Reds

Reds games are broadcast on Fox Sports Ohio.  Thom Brennaman provides the play-by-play for 100 games or so during the year. Chris Welsh handles analyst duties.  When Brennaman is off (he provides play-by-play for FOX Sports national baseball and football games), former major leaguers Jeff Brantley and Sean Casey, as well as Kim Kelch and George Grande, fill in.

I don’t go for Brantley’s style (if you can call it that), but the other broadcasters are good and work well together.

St. Louis Cardinals

Rick Horton and Dan McLaughlin share play-by-play duties on Cardinals broadcasts on Fox Sports Net Midwest. Al Hrbosky, known as the Mad Hungarian when he pitched for the Cardinals, is the color commentator.

I like this team. Straightforward, knowledgeable and low key.  Just what the “best fans in baseball” deserve.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Daren Sutton anchors the Diamondbacks television broadcasts on Fox Sports Arizona with the play-by-play.  Sutton is the son of Hall of Fame pitcher Don Sutton.  Former Cubs and Diamondbacks All-Star first baseman Mark Grace teams with Sutton for the color commentary.

Another tough call.  Like the Nationals’ duo, the play calling and analysis are traditional in their use of names, but in most other ways, Mark Grace is anything but traditional.  Grace really puts the “color” in color commentary.

Colorado Rockies

You can watch Rockies games on ROOT Sports with Drew Goodman on the play-by-play.  Goodman is a veteran broadcaster who has called games in the four big professional sports.  Former big league pitcher George Frazier and former utility infielder Jeff Huson share color commentary duties.

Zzzzzzzz.  Oh sorry.  Fell asleep there for a bit.  Yes, these guys are traditional, if not a bit on the boring side.  They do call Carlos Gonzalez CarGo, but big, big props that they do not call Troy Tulowitzki “Tulo.”  That would be unbearable.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Vin Scully.  That is all.

Vin Scully does play-by-play, analysis and everything else on KCAL for Dodgers home game and road games against teams in the National League West.  For other games, the play-by-play is handled by Eric Collins with analysis by former big league outfielder Steve Lyons.

The lesson here is to only watch Dodger home games or games against their NL West foes.

San Diego Padres

Renowned national sportscaster Dick Engberg joined the Padres last season and anchors the team’s broadcasts on 4 San Diego.  When Engberg is globetrotting to cover other events (like now, when he’s in England for Wimbledon), Mark Neely fills in.  Former big league pitcher Mark Grant and former hit machine Tony Gwynn provide the analysis.

Smart baseball people.  Nothing fancy.  That is all.

San Francisco Giants

Duane Kuiper and Mike Krukow anchor the Giants telecasts on CSN Bay Area. Kuiper does the play-by-play while Krukow waxes eloquently, particularly about pitching mechanics.  Hall of Famer Jon Miller subs in for Kuiper when the Giants games are broadcast on NBC Bay Area 11.  Miller otherwise can be heard on KNBR.  Miller’s radio partner Dave Flemming also occasionally can be found on the TV side.

Kruk and Kuip, as they are affectionately known, were teammates on the Giants and are best friends.  Their respect for each other and rapport with each other are unmatched in the baseball broadcasting world.  Yeah, there’s the occasional “Buster” for Posey and “Nate The Great” for outfielder Nate Schierholtz but to my ears, it enhances the broadcast, not detracts from it.  Go ahead, call me a homer.  It’s true.

Hybrid TV Broadcasters

Florida Marlins

Rich Waltz is in his seventh year as the television play-by-play voice of the Marlins on FOX Sports Florida/Sun Sport. Tommy Hutton’s been handling analysis duties for the Marlins for 15 years.  Hutton played in the big leagues for 17 years as a player.

Hanley Ramirez is “Hanley.”  Only “Hanley.”   That’s enough to push them into the hybrid category.

Houston Astros

Bill Brown is the longtime television play-by-play voice of the Astros on Fox Sports-Houston. Jim Deshaies provides the analysis.  Deshaies pitched in the majors for the Astros, Padres, Twins, Giants and Phillies.

These guys were on the bubble.  I can understand and appreciate “Carlos” or even “El Caballo” for Carlos Lee.  But calling Michael Bourne just “Michael” over and over again is just not necessary.  Or interesting.

Milwaukee Brewers

Mike Anderson handles television play-by-play duties for the Brewers on Fox Sports Wisconsin. Former big league catcher Bill Schroeder adds the color analysis.  Occasional analysis is also provided by former big league outfielder Dave Nelson.

This is an excited team.  Too excited for me.  And while I’d be okay with “Prince” for Prince Fielder, I am not okay with “Braunie” for Ryan Braun.  I’m sure Braun was called “Braunie” in his Jewish Community Center pick-up basketball league when he was 15.  But now he’s an MVP-candidate heart throb and deserves more respect.

Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates rotate play-by-play announcers and color analysts between the television and radio broadcasts.  On ROOT Sports TV, Greg Brown and Tim Neverett handle the play-by-play.  Former MLB pitchers Bob Walk and Steve Blass, and former infielder John Wehner, provide the analysis.

I bet these guys aren’t used to having too many people watching and listening to Pirates broadcasts.  But the Pirates are good!  Joel Hanrahan is the closer of the century!  And now folks are paying attention.  So please, a little less “Ronnie” for Cedeno and “Andrew” for McCutchen and you’d be back in the traditional column.

And there you have it.  Now go turn on MLB.tv and enjoy the superior brand of baseball played by the National League.

The Minnesota Twins lost 15-0 to the Los Angeles Dodgers tonight.  That’s the Twins’ sixth straight loss.  The Twins losing streak started on June 22, when they lost to the San Francisco Giants by a score of 5-1.  Before arriving in San Francisco, the Twins had won 14 out of 16, and took the first game of the series on June 21 with the historic first inning of eight straight hits to lead off the game.  But the Twins lost Game 2 of the series against the Giants and haven’t won since.

Hmm.  This scenario seems vaguely familiar.

The Florida Marlins rolled into AT&T Park on May 24 with a record of 26-19.   The Marlins swept a three-game series from the Giants. Game 2 of that series featured the infamous home plate collision between Giants catcher Buster Posey and Marlins’ outfielder Scott Cousins.  Since leaving AT&T Park, the Marlins have gone 5-25.

Giants fans like to the think that there’s a karmic explanation for the Marlins’ post-AT&T tailspin: payback for knocking Posey out for the season.

But maybe there’s something else going on.

The Giants have played 26 series so far this season.   Let’s put aside the Twins series played last week and the just-completed weekend series against the Cleveland Indians.  That leaves 24 series.

For four of those series, the Giants’ opponent posted a record of either 3-7 or 2-8 in the ten games after the series played against the Giants.  For one such series, the Giants’ opponent went 2-4 thereafter, having only played 6 games.

What’s interesting is that each of these teams either took or split the series against the Giants.  In other words, after playing and beating the Giants, these teams headed in the opposite direction.

• The Dodgers and Giants played a four game series to open the season.  The Dodgers took the series 3 games to 1. The Dodgers then went 3-7 in their next 10 games.

• The Padres and Giants played a 2 game series on April 5 and 6.  Each team won a game.  The Padres then went 3-7 in their next 10 games.

• The Rockies and Giants played a 2 game series on May 16 and 17.  The Rockies won both games but then dropped 8 of their next 10.

• The Marlins swept a three-game series from the Giants between May 24-26.  The Marlins posted a 2-8 record in their next 10 games.

• The As swept a three-game series from the Giants between June 17-19.  Since then, the As are 2-4.

The flip-side is also true.

For 5 of the Giants’ series, their opponent posted a record of either 7-3 or 8-2 after the series played against the Giants. And four of the Giants’ opponents lost the series to the Giants.  So after playing the Giants and losing, these teams went on winning streaks in their next ten games.

• The Giants took 2 out of 3 from the St. Louis Cardinals between April 7-9.  The Cardinals then won 7 out of their next 10 games.

• The Giants won a three-game series against the Pittsburgh Pirates between April 27-29.  The Pirates posted a 7-3 record in their next 10 games.

• The Giants swept the Arizona Diamondbacks in a 3-game series played on May 10, 11 and 12.  The Diamondbacks then began their big season turnaround, winning 8 of their next 10 games.

• The Giants took 2 out of 3 from the Washington Nationals June 6, 7 and 8.  The Nationals posted an 8-2 record in the next 10 games.

The only team to post a 7-3 or better record following a series with the Giants that beat the Giants in that series was the Atlanta Braves.  The Braves swept the Giants at AT&T Park in a 3-game series on April 22, 23 and 24 and then won 7 of their next 10.

I have no idea if these post-Giants winning and losing streaks are statistically significant in any way.  It may be that other teams have spurred winning and losing streaks in the same way the Giants have this season or to a greater extent. If others are interested in looking into it, that would be great.  Share the information in the comments or e-mail me and I’ll post it.

Near the halfway point of the season, the Giants have defied the odds.  They’ve lost their best overall player in Buster Posey for the season.  They’ve lost their most consistent hitter in Freddy Sanchez, likely for the season.  They lost their best power hitter, Pablo Sandoval, for 6 weeks.  They’ve scored the fewest runs in the majors.  And yet they are 44-34 and in first place in the National League West.

It wouldn’t surprise me in the least if the Giants were the most prominent streak-makers in the majors this season.  It would just be one more quirk in their otherwise odds-defying season.

Yesterday, Craig Calcaterra, Blogger-in-Chief at HardballTalk on NBCSports.com, linked to a story about Milwaukee Brewers manager Ron Roenicke complaining about the differences in the Brewers interleague schedule as compared to that of division rival St. Louis Cardinals.  The Brewers play the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays and Twins this season.  The Cardinals play the Royals, Blue Jays, and Orioles, with an extra series against the Phillies. It’s not fair, said Roenicke, that the Brewers have a much more difficult interleague schedule than the Cardinals when those two teams are battling for the National League Central division.

This morning, I sent Craig links to my posts from March, where I had analyzed whether the unbalanced interleague schedules used from 1997-2010 had likely affected the outcome of divisional races and the wild card race against teams in the same division.  In those posts, I concluded that interleague likely had not affected those races, save for the 2006 NL Central race.  Craig was kind enough to link to those posts today.

This afternoon, David Schoenfield of ESPN’s Sweet Spot Blog, picked up on this debate, linking to Craig’s posts and mine, including a post I wrote in April on how unbalanced interleague schedules likely would have affected the races for the second wild card spot, if that proposal had been in effect since interleague play started in 1997.

These posts have spurred a debate–which is good–and some suggestion that my analysis was results-oriented to justify interleague play.   That’s simply not true.

I favor balanced schedules within each league. I’ve been on the fence about interleague play but have come around to the view that the negatives of interleague play outweigh the positives.

But that doesn’t mean that I accept arguments against interleague play at face value.  I’ve heard the argument for years that the unbalanced interleague schedules affected divisional races in a way that was unfair to one or another team.  I looked but didn’t find any analysis of whether that argument had any factual basis or not.  So I set out to find the facts.

Is my analysis conclusive? No.  Are there issues that I missed?  I am sure there are.

But the historical record shows that between 1997-2010, in the close National League divisional races and National League wild card races between teams in the same division, the team that made the playoffs had a worse interleague record as compared to the team that just missed making the playoffs.  And that was often true even when the winning team had an easier interleague schedule.

Does this mean that more difficult interleague schedules will not affect the outcome of this year’s divisional or wild card races?  Of course not.  My analysis was descriptive only.  It was not predictive in any way.

I invite anyone and everyone who is interested in these issues to do his/her own analysis and see what it shows.  I look forward to seeing the results.

Throw strikes, throw strikes they say

Command the fastball, pound the zone

The fastball sets you up, sets them up

The hitters, it sets the hitters up

The fastball

The fastball sets up the slider

Sets up the curve ball

The fastball

Madison Bumgarner throws a fastball

And it is fast, his fastball

Not the fastest, but fast

Mad Bum they call him, or Bummey, or Maddie, or good

They call him good, they call him very good

He throws that fastball

He pounds the zone, Mad Bum pounds the zone

So young still

So young is Mad Bum

Fourth youngest pitcher ever to win a World Series game

A hero

A hero just old enough to drink the bubbly

He stumbled last night, Mad Bum did

He stumbled

He tumbled, really

A World Series hero tumbled

He tumbled

He pounded the zone with the fastball

The fastball that is fast

The fastball that sets up the slider, the curve

He pounded the zone

And the zone pounded back

Hit after hit after hit

Nine hits

Eight runs

One out

Not a hero

Not a hero on this night

Mad Bum is young, so young

So young he can barely drink the bubbly

And that fastball

That fastball is fast

That fastball will make him a hero again

Yesterday, in honor of the Florida Marlins’ 1-19 record the first 20 game in June, I looked at the worst losing streaks in a 20-game period over the last 30 years of baseball. Must have been some kind of reverse jinx because the Marlins beat the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim last night 5-2.

The Minnesota Twins are streaking in the other direction. After a dreadful April and May that saw the Twins fall to 17-36, 15.5 games behind the AL Central leading Indians, the Twins have won 15 of their first 18 games in June, including 8 straight. Since the Twins are in the midst of 3-game series against the San Francisco Giants, I thought I’d write this post on the best winning percentages over a 20-game stretch in the past 30 years. Maybe it will put a reverse jinx on the Twins.

The post on losing streaks looked at teams that had recorded 0-20, 1-19 and 2-18 records over a 20-game stretch. We’ll turn that around today, and look at teams that posted 20-0, 19-1, and 18-2 records in a 20-game stretch, over the past 30 years.

Gold Circle of Competence

No competition for this award. The 2002 Oakland As win this one going away, with the only 20-0 mark over the last 30 years, and the only 20-game winning streak in the American League, ever. Only the 1880 Chicago Cubs (21), 1916 New York Giants (26), and 1935 Chicago Cubs (21) have had longer winning streaks, with the Giants holding the MLB record.

Silver Circle of Competence

Over the last 30 years, only three teams have played 20 games, losing only one, for a .950 winning percentage. Only three. And just two franchises, as the Minnesota Twins–yes the Twins–did it twice: the 2006 Minnesota Twins and the 1991 Minnesota Twins. The 1991 Twins won the World Series. The 2006 Twins lost in the American League Division Series to the Oakland As.

The other team to post a .950 winning percentage in a 20-game stretch?  The 1988 Boston Red Sox. We know the Red Sox didn’t win the World Series in 1988. But guess what? They also lost in the playoffs to the Oakland As.

Oh, and you know who beat the As in the playoffs in 2002, the year of the As 20-game winning streak?  The Twins.

So the Twins, Red Sox, and As are the only teams in the last 30 years to post a .950 winning percentage or better in the last 30 years, and one of those teams has knocked another of those teams out of the playoffs in each of those years–except for the 1991 Twins, who own it all. Crazy stuff.

Bronze Circle of Competence

Here we honor those teams that have recorded a .900 winning percentage over a 20-game period (18-2) at some point in the last 30 years. A much longer list than those in the Gold or Silver Circles, to be sure, but none since 2004.

The Boston Red Sox have had three 20-game stretches of .900 ball or better in the last 30 years (2004, 1995, 1991). Same for the Oakland As (2002, 2001 and 1988). The New York Yankees only have had one (1998).

The Twins (2006 and 1991), Montreal Expos (1993 and 1994) and New York Mets (1990 and 1986) have done it twice since 1981.

The Seattle Mariners (2001), San Francisco Giants (1990), Milwaukee Brewers (1987), Detroit Tigers (1984), and Chicago White Sox (1983) have done it once.

And to bring us full circle, guess what franchise has never had a winning streak of 10-games or more?  That’s right.  The Florida Marlins.  But they’ve won two World Series.  Go figure.

This morning in Baseball Prospectus, Michael Jong explained that the Florida Marlins have the worst one month record in the National League East over the last 50 years.  At 1-18 (as of Tuesday morning), the Marlins have a winning percentage of .053 so far in June. According to Jong, the next worst winning percentage for an NL East team goes to the 1997 Philadelphia Phillies, who posted a 4-22 record in June (.154).

That got me thinking.

Looking at losing streaks by months is interesting, but months are just arbitrary dividers in a 162-game schedule.  Why not look at team records over a 20-game period?  That’s just as arbitrary.  So that’s what I did.

I wanted to know how the 2011 Marlins compared to all major league teams over the last 30 years.  The Marlins are in the midst of a 1-19 run, dating to June 1.  That’s a .050 winning percentage.  I looked to see how many other teams had recorded a .100 winning percentage or worse over a 20-game period at any point in the season.  In other words, which teams posted records of either 0-20, 1-19 or 2-18 in a 20-game stretch over the last 30 years.

And the awards go to . . . .

Gold Circle of Ineptitude

The winner for ineptitude, of course, is the 1988 Baltimore Orioles, who started the season with a 21-game losing streak. That’s a .000 winning percentage over the first 20 games of the season.  No other team has matched that streak in the last 30 years.

Silver Circle of Ineptitude

The Silver Circle recognizes those teams who’ve posted 1-19 records (.050 winning percentage) over any 20-game stretch in the last 30 years.   We start, of course, with the 2011 Florida Marlins.  But the Marlins are not alone.  There’s the 2005 Kansas City Royals, the 1997 Philadelphia Phillies, the 1996 Detroit Tigers, the 1988 California Angels, and the 1982 Minnesota Twins.

Bronze Medal of Ineptitude

The Bronze Medal goes to those teams that posted 2-18 records (.100) during any 20-game stretch in the last 30 years. This is a crowded field, much more crowded than I expected.  A full list is below, but a few points worth noting:

In 2003, the Detroit Tigers had three separate 20-game stretches with 2-18 records.  I think that pushes the 2003 Tigers to the Platinum Circle of Ineptitude.  The 1996 Tigers, who had one streak of 1-19, also had a 2-18 stretch.  Not the 2003 Tigers, but close.  Only one other team in the last 30 years had two separate 2-18 stretches–the 1987 Baltimore Orioles.

Eleven franchises (that have been in existence for 30 years) have avoided a 2-18 stretch (or worse) since 1981: Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, Toronto Blue Jays, Chicago White Sox, Washington Nationals/Montreal Expos, Cincinnati Reds, Houston Astros, St. Louis Cardinals, San Francisco Giants, Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres.  The same is true for the Rockies and the Rays, in their shorter existence.   I was surprised the Nationals/Expos made this list.  Any teams surprise you?

That leaves 17 franchises that have posted at least one 2-18 record (or worse) over a 20-game stretch at some point in the last 30 years.  Some have done it more than once:  2010 Pittsburgh Pirates, 2008 Oakland A’s, 2006 Atlanta Braves, 2004 New York Mets, 2004 Arizona Diamondbacks, 2003 Texas Rangers, 2002 Baltimore Orioles, 2001 Baltimore Orioles, 2001 Anaheim Angels, 2000 Chicago Cubs, 1999 Philadelphia Phillies, 1997 Kansas City Royals, 1994 Oakland A’s, 1992 Seattle Mariners, 1991 Cleveland Indians, 1991 New York Mets, 1987 Milwaukee Brewers, 1985 Pittsburgh Pirates, 1982 Atlanta Braves, and 1982 New York Mets.

The 2011 Florida Marlins have hardly cornered the market on baseball ineptitude.

Prior to Monday night’s game against the Angels, the Marlins were 1-18 in June.  Manager Edwin Rodriguez resigned yesterday and the Marlins hired Jack McKeon today as the interim manager.  Two weeks earlier, the Fish had fired hitting coach John Mallee and replaced him with ESPN analyst Eduardo Perez.  But lack of offense explains only part of the Marlins demise.  The real problem for the Marlins in June has been pitching.

Marlins ace Josh Johnson was untouchable in April, starting 6 games with 41 inning pitched, a 3-0 record and an .88 ERA.  May was a different story, as Johnson’s pitching may have started to show the effects of the shoulder inflammation that sent him to the DL on May 21.  Johnson started 3 games in May, pitched 14.1 innings, went 0-1, and posted an ERA of 3.26.   Not April’s numbers, but better than Johnson’s replacements in the starting rotation.

In June, Brad Hand started 3 games for the Marlins, pitched only 15.2 innings, and lost all 3 games.  Hand’s BB/K ratio is an abysmal 1.11 and he’s given up 2.3 HRs/9 innings pitched.  Elih Villanueva started one game for the Marlins in June, lasted only 3 innings, and ended the outing with a 24.00 ERA.

Marlins starter Anibal Sanchez was lights out in May, posting a 4-0 record in 6 games started, with a 1.66 ERA.  Sanchez is 1-0 in June, but his ERA this month is up to 4.82.  He’s also seen his Left-on-Base Percentage (LOB%) drop from 87.3% in May to 64.4% in June.

The other Marlins starters–Chris Volstad, Javier Vazquez, and Ricky Nolasco–have also fared worse in June.  Nolasco, in particular, has seen his numbers decline since the start of the season.  In April, Nolasco started 5 games, went 2-0, and posted a 3.24 ERA.  In May, he started 6 games, went 2-1, but his ERA climbed to 4.31.  June’s been even worse: 4 games started, 0-2 record, and a 6.75 ERA.   Volstad and Vazquez haven’t pitched very well all season.

The Marlins bullpen was an early strength, particularly Michael Dunn and closer Leo Nunez.  In April, Nunez pitched in 13 games, recorded 8 saves, and posted a 2.77 ERA.  Nunez added 11 saves in May in 14 games pitched, with 1 loss.  His May ERA was 3.21.  Nunez hasn’t seen much action in June with the Marlins long losing streak, but he has pitched in 4 games, with 1 loss and a June ERA of 9.00.

Dunn was outstanding in April, pitching in 9.2 innings over 11 games, and posting a 0.00 ERA.  But it’s been all downhill for Dunn.  In June, he’s pitched 8.2 innings over 9 games and taken the loss in 3 games with no wins.  Dunn’s era in June is 5.19.

Yes, the Marlins offense has sputtered in June. Gaby Sanchez, Mike Stanton, Logan Morrison and Greg  Dobbs have all seen their wOBA (weighted On-Base Percentage) decline significantly this month.  wOBAs for Morrison, Dobbs and Ramirez have decreased by more than .100.  But John Buck, Emilio Bonifacio, and Omar Infante have picked up some of the slack.  They each raised their wOBA in June by .50.   In Stanton, Sanchez and Buck, the Marlins still have 3 everyday players with wOBA in June over .330 (last year’s league average).  The Phillies only have 4 such players (Utley, Rollins, Victorino and Howard).

The Marlins are stocked with good, young, athletic players.  With a new manager and new hitting coach, the offense should get back on track.  But it’s the pitching that must make a quick turnaround if the Marlins are going to get back in the race in the National League East.

All statistics courtesy of Fangraphs.

Unless you were living under a rock this week just to see what it would be like, you’ve heard that Major League Baseball and the players’ union are discussing a plan to rejigger the leagues and possibly eliminate divisions.  Some call it “realignment”; others say “unalignment.”

Whatever the name, the basic idea is to move one National League team to the American League, so that both leagues have 15 teams.  The Houston Astros, Arizona Diamondbacks and Florida Marlins appear to be on the short list for the switch to the AL.  I haven’t seen anyone mention moving the Milwaukee Brewers, who played in the American League until the last realignment in 1994.  Which is odd because one of the apparent motivations for realignment is that the National League Central, where the Brewers play, has 6 teams, and the American League West only has 4 teams.  Nobody ever said that logic and rationality were on the table in these discussions.

I’m still thinking about the possibilities and haven’t decided yet where I come out.  I know what you’re thinking– a blogger without a quick and certain opinion?  What good is that?  A lot of good, I believe.  We’re not debating whether Andres Torres should have tried to steal second base after a lead-off walk in the top of the 8th inning in last night’s Giants-Diamondbacks game.  (Yes, he should have.)  We’re talking about how to structure Major League Baseball in a way that is fair to teams and players, maximizes entertainment for fans, and enhances the financial success of the sport. Seems like the sort of decision we should think about for more than a week.

To advance the debate, I’ve pulled together a collection of realignment articles, blogs posts, and commentaries from around the web.  All thoughtful, interesting takes.  Give ‘em a read and then add your thoughts in the comments section.

• Rob Neyer, National Baseball Editor at Baseball Nation:  MLB Realignment? Bring It On (yes, there’s a link back to one of my old posts)

• Al Yellon, Editor at Baseball Nation, with a counterpoint to Neyer’s article:  MLB Realignment: Not So Fast

• Bernie Miklasz, Sports Columnist at the St. Louis Post-Dispatch: Ideas to “fix” baseball are way off base

• Jonah Keri at Fangraphs:  Realignment: The AL East Quandry

• ‘Duk, Editor at Big League Stew Blog on Yahoo! Sports:  Best realignment possibility? Astros and Rangers sharing a division

• Jeff Passan at Yahoo! Sports:  MLB: “Unalignment” is best for baseball (video)

• Jayson Stark at ESPN, in conversation with Buster Olney: The great realignment debate

• Rich Farrell at Opera for the Masses (Yardbarker):  How Realignment Will Ruin Baseball

And I’m sure there are more good ones out there.  Add your thoughts (and other links) in the comments section.  This is a biggie folks.

There was artistry at work in major league baseball on Tuesday.  Sure, there were the diving-and-landing-on-your-belly grabs of Padres outfielder Ryan Ludwick and Rockies outfielder Carlos Gonzalez.  And Dodgers shortstop Dee Gordon’s nightly diving-into-the-hole-to-turn-a-double-play.

But for the true art lovers among us, Tuesday was a special day.  A day when major league outfielders performed their best grand sissone ouvertes and grand jete en avants. That’s French for super fantastic ballet leaps where the dancer goes high in the air, lands on one leg, keeps his balance and prepares for the next move.

You can see a grand sissone ouverte here and a grand jete avant here as performed by the American Ballet Theater.

Then watch outfielders Andres Torres, Ichiro, and Conor Jackson in action.  Notice the strength, the extension, the pointed toes, the grace.

Magnifique!

Some injured return

To hit, catch, throw, run, to play

The game of summer

Two third basemen, back

Zimmerman and Sandoval

Crucial parts to team

Hanley Ramirez

Tough year, bad leg, new hit coach

Season in balance

Johan Santana

Not so fast, August they say

More trouble for Mets

And where’s Josh Johnson

Every start, near no hitter

Too hard on his frame?

And what of Jeter?

Calf aches, three thousand will wait

Will Yankees win more?

It’s the daily grind

Aches and pains abound, no one

Feels that great in June

After San Francisco Giants second baseman Freddy Sanchez dislocated his shoulder in Friday night’s game against the Cincinnati Reds, ESPN’s Buster Olney wrote:

Nobody in baseball is going to feel sorry for the Giants and their recent injury woes, least of all the Dodgers, whose disabled list is overflowing like a Brooklyn subway car on Monday morning, or the Colorado Rockies, who have lost their best starting pitcher, Jorge De La Rosa. The team across the bay, in Oakland, is also not going to have a lot of sympathy, having lost the vast majority of its able-bodied starting pitchers.

 

I agree with Olney, and not just because other teams have also endured tough injuries this season.  Injuries are a part of the game (which doesn’t mean MLB shouldn’t take steps to prevent them, especially the more serious ones).   The Giants were incredibly lucky last year to avoid injuries to key players.  This year, not so much.

Injuries a part of defending a World Series Championship.  Significant, long-term injuries have plagued three other defending World Series Champions over the last decade.

First, the Giants.  Of the players on the Giants’ World Series roster, all but three returned for this season. Juan Uribe and Edgar Renteria were free agents and signed elsewhere.  They were replaced, ostensibly, by Miguel Tejada.  Travis Ishikawa was cut at the end of spring training, and is back with the AAA club in Fresno.

The Giants 2011 Opening Day roster also included several players who were in the Giants organization last year, but not on the World Series roster: Barry Zito, Mark DeRosa, and Brandon Belt.   Belt made the roster after NLCS MVP Cody Ross sustained a calf injury at the end of spring training.  Both Ross and closer Brian Wilson started the year on the disabled list.

Everyone knows about Buster Posey’s season-ending injury.  Freddy Sanchez’s dislocated shoulder will keep out of action for a good long while, possibly the season.  Pablo Sandoval returns to the Giants lineup tonight after 6 weeks on the disabled list with fractured hamate bone in his right hand.   Wilson re-joined the team the second week of the season.  Ross didn’t rejoin until April 20.  By that time, Andres Torres was out with an achilles injury and Barry Zito was sidelined with a bruised foot suffered while trying to field a bunt.  Torres came back in mid-May.  Zito is still rehabbing.

Super-sub infielder Mike Fontenot and pinch-runner extraordinaire Darren Ford (who replaced Torres on the roster) were added to the disabled list the same day as Posey (May 26), and neither has returned.  Belt, the Opening Day first baseman, was returned to the minors after a hitting slump, but then called back up after the injuries to Ford, Fontenot and Posey.  A week or so later, Belt was hit on the wrist with a pitch.  He’s now out with a fractured wrist bone.   Relief pitcher Santiago Casilla also spent time on the disabled list.  And then there’s Mark DeRosa.

Before Pablo Sandoval was activated on Sunday, three-quarters of the Giants Opening Day infield (Belt, Sanchez and Sandoval) plus their star catcher, Posey, were on the disabled list at the same time.  Makes it kinda tough to defend a World Series Championship.

The Giants are not alone.

The 2008 Boston Red Sox (defending their 2007 title), the 2007 St. Louis Cardinals (defending their 2006 title), and the 2005 Red Sox (defending their 2004 title) found themselves in a similar–although not identical–situation as do the Giants this year, with key players from their World Series roster or those added to bolster the defense run spending alot of time on the disabled list.

The 2008 Red Sox lost starting pitchers Josh Beckett and Daisuke Matzuzaka to the DL; Beckett served two stints and Dice-K one, which lasted a month.  Third baseman Mike Lowell battled injuries all year, going to the DL twice.  David Ortiz sat out for five weeks and shortstop Alex Cora for four.  First baseman Sean Casey, who  joined the Red Sox for the 2008 season, made two trips to the DL, as did relief pitchers Mike Timlin and David Aardsma.  J.D. Drew saw time on the DL, as did relievers Clay Buchholz and Tim Wakefield.   No season-ending injuries like the Giants’ Posey and Sanchez, but a revolving DL door for the defending champs, for sure.

The 2007 Cardinals did suffer a big season-ending injury to a key player.  Starting pitcher Chris Carpenter pitched only one game all year–an Opening Day loss to the Mets–before being sidelined with an elbow injury that ultimately required Tommy John surgery.  Third baseman Scott Rolen hit the DL in August, and didn’t return that season.  Outfielders Preston Wilson, Jim Edmonds and Juan Encarnacion all lost more than a month to injuries.  Indeed, it was in August 2007, that Encarnacion was hit in the eye with a foul ball while standing in the on-deck circle, essentially ending his career.  The Cardinals also played part of 2007 without All-Star catcher Yadier Molina and shortstop David Eckstein, who each sat out a month.

Like their brethren three years later, the 2005 Red Sox also dealt with injuries to key players–almost all pitchers.  World Series hero, starting pitcher Curt Schilling, started the year on the DL, returned in mid-April, was re-injured a week later, and then sat out until mid-July.  Starter David Wells, who as added to the Red Sox rotation in ’05 to bolster their title defense, sat out six weeks.  Closer Keith Foulke missed July and August.  In the outfield, Trot Nixon missed most of August.  Second baseman Mark Bellhorn lost significant time to injury and was ultimately released.

From where we sit now, the Giants’ injuries this season look more severe than what these other defending champs played through.  They certainly feel more severe to Giants fans.   But Giants fans can take hope that the 2005 and 2008 Red Sox did make the playoffs before falling short in their title defense.

Which is more than 2006 Chicago White Sox can say.  Of all the defending champs over the past decade, the 2006 White Sox endured the fewest injuries but missed the playoffs, ending the season in third place in the AL Central.  No one felt sorry for the Sox, either.

I remember well the first time I stopped and noticed that a baseball play-by-play announcer called the players by their first names. Not first and last names. Just their first names.

It was July 23, 2009, the day Chicago White Sox pitcher Mark Buehrle pitched a perfect game against the Tampa Bay Rays.  The highlight shows played and re-played the final out of the game over and over again.  And for days, weeks after the perfect game, I couldn’t get Ken “the Hawk” Harrelson’s call out of my head:

Aaaleeexieeee.  Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes.Yes.

 

That was Harrelson’s call of White Sox shortstop Alexie Ramirez fielding the grounder and getting the 27th out at firstbase.   I was intrigued.  I’m sure I’d heard calls by the Hawk before on various highlight shows, but since I didn’t then have MLB Network or MLB.tv, those highlights didn’t stick in my head the way the Buerhle perfect game did.  So I started watching video clips of White Sox games on MLB.com to get more familiar with Harrelson’s play-by-play style.

Wow.  Harrelson’s a homer, for sure.  Probably the biggest homer of all radio and TV broadcasters in baseball.  Here’s a video compilation of the 27 outs in Mark Beuhrle’s perfect game, called by Harrelson.  It gives you a good sense of his overall play-by-play style. And, boy, does that style bring out loyal fans and irate detractors.

It’s Harrelson’s near constant use of only the players’ first names that really gets under my skin.  I don’t think of myself as old-fashioned about much, but just give me the player’s name, first and last, maybe a well-known nickname, and then just use the last name.  When I’m watching a game, or highlights, I don’t want the broadcasters reminding me that they know intimate details of the player’s life.  Intellectually, I know that, but hearing that detracts from my baseball experience.

And I know I’m not alone.

So as a public service to baseball fans everywhere, I have compiled the HangingSliders Unofficial Guide to Each MLB Team’s Broadcasters and What They Call the Players on the Air.  Because with MLB Network, MLB Radio Network, Sirius XM Satellite Radio and MLB’s At-Bat app, baseballs fans around the world can tune into broadcasts of any game (other than the ones for shown in their “area” — a topic for another day).  And you want to be prepared.

Today’s edition focuses on the TV announcers for each American League team.  The next post will cover TV announcers for each National League team.  If there’s a hue and cry, I’ll consider further editions on the radio announcers, but there better be treats for me at the end.

Traditional TV Broadcasters

The following American League teams have what I call “traditional TV broadcasters.”  During the play-by-play, players are referred to either by their first and last name together or just the last name.  The color commentary follows the same pattern: first and last name again or just the last name.  Nicknames are used occasionally, but only those that are well-known and considered positive, like “Big Papi” for Red Sox DH David Ortiz.

Here’s the list of American League teams lucky enough (in my view) to have traditional TV broadcasters:

Baltimore Orioles

Gary Thorne does the play-by-play for Orioles TV broadcasts.  Thorne is a familiar voice to sports fans around the country, as he handled play-by-play duties for years for the NY Mets, ESPN, NHL hockey, and the Olympics.  Analyst duties are handled by a variety of former players: Jim Palmer, Brady Anderson, Mike Boddicker, Dave Johnson, and Eddie Murray.  Orioles games are broadcast on Mid-Atlantic Sports Network (MASN).

Boston Red Sox

Don Orsillo does the play-by-play on Red Sox TV broadcasts.  Former Red Sox second baseman Jerry Remy adds the color.   Here’s a good example of Orsillo and Remy calling a play the “traditional” way.  Red Sox games are broadcast on New England Sports Network (NESN).

Tampa Bay Rays

Dewayne Staats handles play-by-play duties, while former MLB pitcher Brian Anderson handles the analysis.  Rays games are broadcast on Sun Sports.

Toronto Blue Jays

Former big league catcher Buck Martinez calls the plays.  Former big leaguer Pat Tabler handles the color commentary.  Jays games are broadcast on Rogers Sportsnet.

Minnesota Twins

To be honest, I can’t quite figure out who broadcasts what for the Minnesota Twins.  According to the Twins website, some combination of Dan Gladden (former Twins player), Jack Morris (former Twins pitcher), Ted Robinson, Dick Bremer, and Bob Kurtz handle play-by-play and color duties on Twins broadcasts.  I’m familiar with Robinson from his days calling games for the San Francisco Giants and New York Mets, plus his work with John McEnroe covering major tennis tournaments.  He’s a traditional guy.  I also watched an hour’s worth of Twins highlights, and while I didn’t know who was who on the broadcasts, the play calling and analysis were right in my wheelhouse.  Most Twins games are broadcast on Fox Sports North.

Oakland Athletics

Plays are called by Glenn Kuiper, brother of Giants broadcaster Duane Kuiper.  Former As catcher Ray Fosse (he of the famous Pete Rose-Ray Fosse home plate collision in the 1970 All-Star Game) provides the color.  As games are broadcast on Comcast SportsNet California.

Hybrid TV Broadcasters

Here’s a list of what I call the “hybrid TV broadcasters” in the American League.  The “hybrids” are grounded in the traditional format, but spice it up with lots of first names or lots of nicknames, or both.  Sometimes the hybrids broadcast for teams with one or two “special players”– you know, the ones who only need one name like, say, Derek.

Here’s the list of American League teams with “hybrid TV broadcasters.”

New York Yankees

Michael Kay calls the plays.  Ken Singleton does the analysis.  Listen to these guys do a Yankees broadcast, and you will hear plenty of “Alex” and “Derek.”   All on the YES Network and WWOR.

Cleveland Indians

Matt Underwood does the play-by-play while former Tribe outfielder Rick Manning adds the color.  Manning (or should I refer to him as Rick) tends to use first names when adding color on replays.  Mostly traditional, but enough first names to push them into the hybrid category.  Indians games are broadcast on SportsTime Ohio.

Detroit Tigers

Mario Impemba gives you the action.  Former Tigers outfielder Rod Allen provides the analysis.  Pretty close to traditional style here, but they made the hybrids because of one too many “Miggys” for Miguel Cabrera’s hits and defensive plays.   You can catch Tigers games on Fox Sports Detriot.

Kansas City Royals

Ryan Lefebvre calls the plays.  Former Royals All-Star second baseman Frank White adds the analysis.  This is a classic “hybrid” team, however oxymoronic that sounds.  Lots of “Billy” for Butler, “Alex” for Gordon, and “Melky” for Cabrera, for my taste.  Listen for yourself by watching a Royals game on Fox Sports Kansas City.  Or watch this highlight.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Victor Rojas pairs with Mark Gubicza, with Rojas calling the plays.  Like the Royals broadcasts, you hear a lot of “Torii” for Hunter and “Bobby” for Abreau.  Angels games are broadcast on Fox Sports West.

Seattle Mariners

Dave Sims and Mike Blowers form the Mariners broadcast team.  Sims calls the plays.  Blowers adds in the color.  These guys are pretty close to traditional, but I list them as hybrids because I heard one too many “Guttys” for Franklin Guitierrez.   Catch the Mariners on Root Sports.

Texas Rangers

I should go easy on the Rangers because they fired their new play-by-play guy (John Rhadigan) just a few weeks ago and replaced him with Dave Barnett.   But since neither Rhadigan nor Barnett is as good as Josh Lewin, I’m not giving the Rangers a break.  Tom Grieve does the color.  Like the Tigers, on the cusp of “traditional” but a few too many first names for me.  So they are hybrids.  You can hear it all on Fox Sports Southwest.

Love ‘em or Hate ‘em Broadcasters

Chicago White Sox

If you’ve read this far, and you’ve listened to the Ken Harrelson clip linked to up top, you know “the Hawk” and his partner Steve Stone are in a category all their own.   The first names and nick names are so frequent, I feel like I’m watching a company softball game.  Not to mention the blatant and never-ending cheering.  ”Stretch, stretch, stretch” says the Hawk when a White Sox player hits a ball to the outfield, willing it to be a home run.   Mercy.  Comcast SportsNet in Chicago carries the White Sox games.  Don’t say you haven’t been warned.

Note:  No weather balloons or Fructis Garnier hair care products were harmed in the making of this post.

Next up:  National League TV Broadcasters

There’s an old saying, “You can’t be too rich or too thin.”  I never believed it, which is a good thing, because its undeniably not true. You can be too thin.

There’s an old saying in baseball, “You can never half enough good pitching.”  When Giants lefty Barry Zito is ready to come off the disabled list, we may find out if this saying is true or not.

The Giants placed Zito on the DL on April 17 after he suffered right mid-foot sprain during a game against the Arizona Diamondbacks the day before.  In addition to the game on April 16 against the DBacks, Zito had started April 3 against the Dodgers (6 IP, 3H, 3ER, 2BB, 5SO–no decision) and April 10 at home against the Cardinals (5.1 IP, 6 H, 4ER, 5 BB, 1SO–LP).  So at the time of his injury, he was 0-1 with 6.23 ERA.

After Zito went on the DL, the Giants called up RHP Ryan Vogelsong to take Zito’s place in the rotation.  Vogelsong began his career with the Giants, was traded to the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2001 along with Armando Rios for Jason Schmidt, and promptly got hurt.  He then had lead a journeyman’s life, pitching poorly for the Pirates, then in Japan for three seasons, and then back to the States, bouncing around the minor leagues with the Phillies and Angels organizations. The Giants signed him to a minor league contract before spring training.

Since he replaced Zito in the Giants’ rotation, Vogelsong has been nothing short of a revelation.  In 8 starts and 2 relief appearances, Vogelsong is 4-1 with a 1.68 ERA.  In 53.2 innings pitched, Vogelsong has allowed only 42 hits, with 14 walks and 42 strikeouts.

After Vogelsong’s latest masterpiece on Sunday against the Colorado Rockies, Giants manager Bruce Bochy said, “It’s obvious Vogey isn’t going anywhere. He’ll go every fifth day. We might have to get creative here. Brian (Sabean) and I are talking about it.”

What does that mean?  Get creative?  Zito is slated to make his first rehab start tonight for the High Class-A San Jose Giants against the Stockton Ports.  He’s continuing to build up arm strength and stamina along with regaining the feel for his pitches.  At this point, it’s anyone’s guess how long Zito will need before he’s physically ready to pitch in the majors again.  Rob Neyer of Baseball Nation mused last week that Zito might be rehabbing a very, very long time.

At some point, though, Zito will be ready, and that’s when the Giants will need to “get creative.”  The team is, after all, paying Zito $18.5 million this season, $19 million next season, and $20 million in 2013.  After Sunday’s game, and Bochy’s comments, Bay Area Sports Guy laid out the options in the post: 3 Ways Giants can get “Creative” with Zito and Vogelsong: put Zito in the bullpen, use a 6-man rotation, or trade a starter (likely Jonathan Sanchez) for a productive bat.   Ok now.

Several factors point strongly toward Zito starting in the bullpen, the most obvious being that the Giants cannot fully assess the value of options 2 and 3 without seeing how Zito fares off a major league mound, unless Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez, Madison Bumgarner or Vogelsong suffers an injury or completely loses his arm slot over the next several weeks.

This morning, Giants broadcaster Mike Krukow said on KNBR’s Murph & Mac Show that once the Giants “get Zito right” and he’s “throwing strikes,” then he can be used in any number of ways.  (Granted, those are both big “ifs” but let’s assume they happen).  Krukow then made a point of saying that Zito had shown a few years ago that he can come out of the bullpen.  Krukow referenced a game against San Diego and said “Zito did quite well.”

Let’s take a closer look.  On August 5, 2007, in his first season with the Giants, Zito pitched 1 inning in relief in a game against the Padres.  Noah Lowry was the starting pitcher for the Giants, which gives you a sense of how long ago this game was.  Zito faced three batters and retired them all: Khalil Greene (no longer in the MLB), Kevin Kouzmanoff (demoted to AAA today), and Michael Barrett (no longer in the MLB).  Zito’s relief appearance was on 2 days of rest.

Zito then made his regular start in the Giants’ next game, on August 7, against the Washington Nationals–on only 1 day of rest.  Zito went 5 innings, gave up 6 hits–3 of which were home runs–4 earned runs, 3 walks, 2 strikeouts.  The Giants scored some runs for Zito that night, so he took a no decision.  The losing pitcher was Kevin Correia, who now pitches for the Pittsburgh Pirates and is the first 8-game winner in the National League this season.  Go figure.

It wasn’t until 2010 that Zito pitched again in relief.  On August 25, the Giants played the Cincinnati Reds at AT&T Park.  Madison Bumgarner started, gave up 8 runs in less than 3 innings, and left the game to the bullpen.  The Giants rallied, tied the game, went ahead, blew the lead in the bottom of the ninth, and lost in 12 innings.  Zito pitched the 12th, gave up 1 run on 3 hits and 1 walk, and took the loss.

Three days later, Zito made his regular start, in a game against the Diamondbacks at AT&T.  He lasted only 3.2 innings, giving up 7 earned runs (9 runs) on 6 hits (1 home run), 5 walks and 1 strikeout.  He took the loss.

And there you have the sum total of Barry Zito’s relief appearances and other games pitched on less than 4 days rest over a career dating back to 2000.  Doesn’t scream “successful relief pitcher,” does it?

There’s also the fact that Zito doesn’t throw particularly hard, doesn’t have great command, and doesn’t have swing-through stuff, even on his curve ball.  And the Giants already have two lefties in the bullpen–Javier Lopez and Jeremy Affedlt–both of whom have been effective of late.

Heading into tonight’s game against the Nationals, the Giants lead the NL West by .5 games over the Diamondbacks.  The offense is putrid (2nd worst in the NL in runs scored), so even with stellar pitching (sans Zito), the Giants have to scratch and claw for every win.  Every run scored is crucial.  Every run allowed takes a year off Bruce Bochy’s life.

So what, exactly, would Zito do for the Giants out of the bullpen?  Other than pitch mop-up innings in blow-out games, I have no idea.  I suppose I’m just not creative enough.

On Thursday afternoon, around 3:30 San Francisco time, I was driving my 10-year old son to practice with his AAU basketball team.  He was doing a Houdini act in the backseat, changing out of his summer camp clothes and into his basketball gear, all the while wearing a seat belt.  Since it was only me and my son (and not my 7-year old daughter), we, naturally, were listening to KNBR, a sports-talk radio station in San Francisco that serves as the flagship station for the San Francisco Giants.  My mind was a bit distracted by the commotion in the back seat and by the rush to get my son to practice on time.

But when we heard Giants General Manager Brian Sabean being interviewed by KNBR hosts Ralph Barbieri and Tom Tolbert (known as the Razor and Mr. T.), we both got quiet.  I’ve listened to countless Sabean interviews on KNBR.  He always sounds like he’d rather be 1,000 other places than taking questions, from Barbieri in particular.  Usually the questions focus on player performance (or the lack thereof) and potential moves to make the team better.  Sabean notoriously gives non-answer answers; Barbieri pushes further, and Sabean gives more non-answers. Barbieri is the passionate, emotional host.  Sabean is the tight-lipped GM doing his duty on the Giants’ flagship station.

I do remember one interview where Barbieri really got under Sabean’s skin and Sabean hung up his phone, ending the interview.  I think the topic was free agent signings the Giants should have made once the team had decided not to re-sign Barry Bonds after the 2007 season.  The term “lunatic fringe” was thrown around–i.e., the idea, pushed by Sabean, was that those Giants fans (Barbieri included) who wanted the Giants to sign a big free agent (a la Vladamir Guerrero) were part of a lunatic fringe.  But, for the most part, Sabean’s weekly or bi-weekly show with Barbieri and Tolbert on KNBR provides little in the way of news or fireworks.

Yesterday’s interview was different.  Sabean was asked right off the bat about the Buster Posey-Scott Cousins collision at home plate in last Wednesday’s game between the Giants and the Florida Marlins.  Sabean’s initial response:

We’re all in relative agreement that . . . it was an avoidable situation, that’s what’s sad.  I don’t have anything against Cousins, the player’s mindset or even his relative explanation thereafter.

-SNIP-

He [Cousins] had his mind made up that he was gonna have contact with the catcher.  His right shoulder went into Buster’s right shoulder which meant he veered left.  And if you don’t call it malicious, it was unnecessary and therein lies why baseball needs to look into it.

 

I understand and largely agree with Sabean’s initial comments.  Posey had left a lane for Cousins to slide.  Cousins chose contact because he expected to have to dislodge the ball and because, well, running over the catcher is a legal play, so why not go for it.  The play certainly was unnecessary and avoidable, and the results are horrifically sad.  Did Cousins intend to injure Posey? I don’t think so, which is why I don’t like the word “malicious.”  “Reckless” yes.  I guess that’s the defense lawyer in me.

I also agree that baseball needs to evaluate whether and how to better protect catchers from vicious, powerful, body-on-body collisions at home plate.  Baseball doesn’t permit such collisions at other bases, in order to protect players, and catchers should be no different.

But several minutes later, after further questions about whether and how to change baseball’s rules, Barbieri asked Sabean to comment on the fact that Cousins had reached out to Posey and Posey had said he didn’t plan to return the calls.  Sabean then said:

Buster doesn’t understand this.  Until it happens to you, I don’t know that any of us would.  He went through a tremendous experience, maybe more so mentally than physically and he’s going through a helluva time physically.

–SNIP–

I don’t blame the kid.  Why not be hard nosed? If I never hear from Cousins again or he never plays another day in the big leagues, I think we’ll all be happy.

 

Wow.  In the span of 10 minutes, Sabean went from “I don’t have anything against Cousins” to “If he never plays another day in the big leagues, I think we’ll all be happy.”  A few minutes later, Barbieri asked about those comments, and Sabean did not back down.

Well, no. He chose to be a hero in my mind, and if that’s his flash of fame, that’s as good as it’s going to get, pal. We’ll have a long memory. Believe me, we’ve talked to (former catcher Mike) Matheny about how this game works. You can’t be that out-and-out overly aggressive. I’ll put it as politically as I can state it: There’s no love lost and there shouldn’t be.

I don’t know what was going through Sabean’s mind or why he said what he said in the latter part of the interview.  In the first few minutes of the interview, Sabean sounded like he was reading off Giants’ talking points.  Later on, as he spoke of how the collision and injury have devasted Posey–mentally and physically–Sabean’s emotion got the best of him.

How ironic.  First there was a debate about whether Cousins acted with pre-meditated intent, whether he acted maliciously in trying to score from third base on the sacrifice fly, in the top of the 12th inning of a tie game.  Now there’s a debate about Sabean’s motivations and intent.  What was Sabean trying to accomplish by saying “we’d all be happy if Scott Cousins never played another day in the big leagues”?  Was that a threat?  A foreshadowing of retaliation the next time the Giants play the Marlins (August 12-14, in Florida)?  And if so, why?

Lots of smart baseball writers weighed in last night and this morning on Sabean’s comments.  You can read a range of opinions here (Ken Rosenthal/Fox Sports), here (Tim Kawakami/San Jose Mercury News), here (Dave Brown/Yahoo Sports Blog Big League Stew), here (Craig Calcaterra/NBC’s HardballTalk) and here (Evan Brunell/CBSSports).  And there’s plenty more out there on the interwebs.

But to truly form your own opinion, listen to the entirety of the interview here (click on Brian Sabean, June 2, 2011).  What I hear is deep, deep pain, anger and frustration that the Giants’ star catcher, last year’s Rookie of the Year, and the glue that held the Giants pitching staff together through the playoffs and World Series victory, is hurt.  And not just “out for the season” hurt.  I mean hurting, mentally and physically, the way you’d expect someone to hurt if everything they’d ever worked for in their life had been taken away in a brutal, brutal instant.

I listen to Brian Sabean and I hear concern that no matter what the best surgeons and therapists do, Buster Posey may never be the same player again.  And yes, that would be a huge blow for the Giants organization, but I hear more than that in Sabean’s voice.  I hear raw emotion bubbling over.

My personal view is that Sabean stepped over the line by saying “we’d all be happy if Cousins never plays another day in the big leagues” and then threatening retaliation.  Until that point, I think Sabean’s comments were spot-on, and productive from the stand point of lobbying for a change in the rules.  But Sabean let his emotions get the best of him.

So now the discussion is focused on whether Joe Torre should fine or otherwise punish Sabean.  And Marlins outfielder Logan Morrison, jumping to Cousins’ defense on Friday, is belittling Posey for not returning Cousins’ call and asking MLB to put a gag order on the Giants.

None of this is helpful if the goal is to seriously address the issue of unnecessary collisions at home plate.  And that should be the goal.  And not just because it was Buster Posey.  But because Buster Posey was just the latest major league player to suffer a very serious injury from a home plate collision that could have been avoided.   As Grant Brisbee of McCovey Chronicles and Baseball Nation tweeted last week:

Season two months old

No clear winners have emerged

But story lines set

Phillies pitching great

As expected or better

Offense, not so much

But Phils in first place

Best record in the majors

Oh, and Utley’s back

Braves can also pitch

Especially relievers

Offense, not so much

Know who else can pitch?

Pirates starters, relievers

Offense, not so much

A trend you say? Yes

Runs are at a premium

Cold weather? Perhaps

You know who scores runs?

Guys in the NL Central

Reds, Brewers and Cards

Those three will battle

As the summer heads to fall

Division on line

The West, up for grabs

National, American

Tight race in both leagues

AL East a race

Red Sox back from the dead but

Pitching a concern

The Yankees, what else

Never enough anything

But now in first place

Indians surprise

Young talent on mound, at bat

Tigers start to surge

Sadness abounds, too

Killebrew passes, Carter

Grave medical news

Too many stars hurt

Posey, Mauer, Wainright, too

Need the good guys back

Off to June we go

To watch the boys of summer

Do the baseball thing

I’ve received a lot of positive feedback on the MLB 11 Haiku series. I’ve also received some negative feedback, to wit: too many haikus for a blog that also features interesting baseball commentary and analysis.  In other words, some readers don’t want to wade through the poetry to find the other writing they prefer to read.  Although I haven’t heard the same criticism from the readers who gravitate toward the haikus, that sentiment may very well be out there.

Thanks to everyone for the comments, positive and negative.  HangingSliders is less than 4 months old.  The interest and feedback is nothing short of amazing to me.  What started simply as a passion project has turned into something more, for me and for the readers.

Just weeks after launching the blog, the WordPress expert who helped me get the site up and running took a full-time job, meaning he no longer had the time to consult with me.  The basics were in place, and I was eager to focus my energies on watching and listening to and thinking about and writing about baseball, and not on plug-ins and HTML code.  So that’s what I did.

As the blog has grown and developed, and as I reflect on the comments from readers, I believe a slight re-design is in order.  Nothing major, just a visual and practical re-organization so readers can quickly find the content they are most interested in.  I hope to have a re-design by the end of June.

In the meantime, I will continue to use the format as it currently exists, and I will continue to include links to all posts on Twitter (@hangingsliders) and Facebook (http://facebook.com/hangingsliders).  If you are following me in one of those two places, you will know when I’ve posted something you may be interested in.

Please continue to send your comments and spread the word about HangingSliders.

Just two weeks into this season, I wrote this What’s Wrong with Cardinals Ace Chris Carpenter post.  At the time, the Cardinals were 4-7, their offense was struggling, and Carpenter was 0-2 with a 5.82 ERA.  Although Carpenter had by then pitched only 17 innings, I noted that his balls-to-strikes ratio was substantially higher than in 2009 and 2010, leading to more pitches/inning, a higher WHIP and fewer runners stranded on-base.

Much has changed in the last six weeks.  The Cardinals are in first place in the NL Central, 2.5 games ahead of the Milwaukee Brewers.  Matt Holliday and Lance Berkman sit atop the NL leaders in batting average, leading a Cardinals offense that is second only to the Cincinnati Reds in runs scored per game (4.93 v. 4.96 for the Reds).  But as we prepare to turn the calendar to June, Chris Carpenter is still looking decidedly un-ace-like.

Last week, Rob Neyer, National Baseball Editor at SBNation’s Baseball Nation, wrote a post (suspiciously) titled What’s Wrong with Chris Carpenter? Neyer’s answer? Nothing, if you’re looking for the Chris Carpenter of 2010.  Neyer points to the fact that in 2010 and through May 24 of this season, Carpenter had 7 strikeouts/9 innings and 2.4 walks/9 innings, and that the only difference between this year and last was luck–or lack of it in Carpenter’s case.

If you read this blog for the baseball haiku, you might be wondering how one goes about measuring whether a baseball player’s been lucky or not.  Like you, I’d probably want to know how many four-leaf clovers the player had found during spring training.  But it’s actually more scientific than that.  There is a baseball statistic called Batting Average on Balls in Play, or BABIP.  According to Baseball Prospectus:

A pitcher’s average on batted balls ending a plate appearance, excluding home runs. Based on the research of Voros McCracken and others, BABIP is mostly a function of a pitcher’s defense and luck, rather than persistent skill. Thus, pitchers with abnormally high or low BABIPs are good bets to see their performances regress to the mean. A typical BABIP is about .300.

 

The idea of behind BABIP is that balls-in-play (but not home runs) are sometime gobbled up by the defense and sometimes find a hole and fall for a hit.  A good defense will make a good pitcher look better.  A mediocre defense will make a good pitcher look not as good.  A poor defense will make a good pitcher look mediocre or worse.  And there’s the four-leaf clover part.

Rob Neyer is a man of science, so he points to Carpenter’s BABIP in 2010 (.242) compared to his BABIP so far in 2011 (.343) and declares Carpenter to have been very unlucky so far in 2011.  He predicts that Carpenter’s luck will turn and that he’ll start winning again, if not immediately, then over the course of the season.  It’s called regression to the mean.

Maybe Neyer is right.  He did accurately predict that while Carpenter’s luck would turn, he wouldn’t necessarily be lucky enough to beat the San Diego Padres last Wednesday (the Cardinals lost 3-1).  He also accurately predicted that Cardinal’s pitcher Kyle McClellan’s luck–which has been exceptionally good so far in 2011–would take a turn for the worse.  And what do you know?  McClellan gave up 7 ER against the San Francisco Giants yesterday, including a grand slam to Andres Torres.  Now that’s pretty unlucky (the Giants had scored a total of 7 runs in their previous 3 games, combined).  Perhaps Carpenter’s luck is that he’s facing the Giants after they reached their weekly offensive output on Sunday.

I agree that Carpenter’s been unlucky, as far as BABIP goes, although it’s worth noting that neither Neyer nor I analyzed the Cardinals defense as compared to 2010.  But I still think there’s more going on here.

As was the case through his first 17 innings pitched, Carpenter is still averaging over 16 pitches per inning, although he has brought that number down to 16.11 from 16.9 in 70+ innings pitched.  He’s lowered his balls-to-strike ratio (now throwing 63% of his pitches for strikes, up from 59% in April), which is good.  On the other hand, he’s still allowing way more runners on base to score when compared to 2008-2010.

But the numbers that stand out to me for Chris Carpenter in 2011 are home runs/9 innings pitched (HR/9) and home runs as a percentage of fly-balls (HR/FB%).  In a season when home runs are down around the National League, Carpenter’s home runs allowed numbers are up.  For the first time since 2004, Carpenter is allowing more than 1 HR/9 (1.02 to be precise).  Last year that number was .80.  In 2009, it was an unbelievable .33.   So far in 2011, 11.9% of all fly balls off Carpenter have gone for home runs.  In 2010, the number was 9.3%; in 2009, it was 4.6%.

Neyer says Carpenter’s luck will turn and over the course of the season, he’ll post numbers similar to those he had in 2010.  I agree that Carpenter’s luck will improve, but do not think he’ll regain the form he showed in 2010.  Too many extra pitches/inning.  A higher ball-to-strike ratio, even if the walks/9 are the same.  And too many home runs allowed–especially now that the weather is warming.  If the Cardinals offense continues to produce, Carpenter may very well notch a bunch more wins.  But if science teaches us anything, it’s that pitcher wins don’t matter.

At the end of the season, we’ll see whether Neyer was more right, or I was more right, or neither one of us was right.  Unfortunately, there’s no prize for the winner, unless the winner is Chris Carpenter and you’re a St. Louis Cardinals fan.

In the meantime, Carpenter is currently throwing his warm-up pitches at Busch Stadium, as the Cardinals prepare to take on the Giants.  Because the interwebs and twitterverse have the power to affect things like BABIP and HR/9, I’m certain Carpenter will pitch a complete game 2-hit shutout against the Giants tonight.  How’s that for a very scientific reverse-reverse-jinx.

All statistics courtesy of Fangraphs.

Today is my kids’ last day of school.  It’s not even June and my 7- and 10-year olds are done for the school year.  It’s like they’re in college or something.  Must be some new, cutting edge educational philosophy.  Or drastic, statewide budget cuts that will bite us all in the ass very soon.

A few years ago, we started a tradition of attending a “family camp” near Yosemite National Park over Memorial Day Weekend.  Time to unplug, unwind, reconnect with friends and with ourselves and otherwise have fun and act goofy.  When I was still in the ol’ law gig, I really looked forward to getting away and off the grid.  Now that I watch and listen to and think about and write about baseball all the time, I have mixed feelings about “getting away from it all.”   Who wants to get away from baseball for three days?  I’m not sure I do.

But you know what they say in baseball–”tradition is tradition.”  (Actually, I think that’s a lot of BS, but that’s a subject for another post).  So I will be off the grid entirely this weekend–no tweets, no posts, no baseball, until whatever time I get back in cell range on Monday afternoon.  But you want to be prepared for my return, because I’m certain this short time away will make me a better baseball blogger, if not a better person.

Here’s what you need to do:

Visit the HangingSliders Facebook page, click the Like button and then tell all your closest friends on Facebook to do the same.  Comment on a post.  Share a link with your friends.  It will be almost as therapeutic as a weekend near Yosemite.

Follow me on Twitter @hangingsliders. I’m pretty witty and insightful when limited to 140 characters.

If you are in or near Reno, Nevada, or know anyone who is, tune in today (Friday) at 4:15 this afternoon to 1450 AM. I will be talking all things Buster Posey with Chris Andrews on the ESPN Radio affiliate in Reno.

Enjoy the holiday weekend. Stay safe, have fun, and Play Ball!

The shock is beginning to wear off.  The shock of the collision, the fierce and loud and brutal collision. The shock of Buster Posey writhing in pain next to home plate, pounding the reddish brown dirt.  The dirt he plays in. The dirt he squats in over and over again, game after game. The shock of Posey hobbling off the field, supported by the trainers, his left leg dangling. The shock of the hush, the gasping hush that fell over AT&T Park. The shock of the close-up photos, Posey’s left foot at uncommon angles. The shock of the slow-motion and super-slow-motion replays.  The shock of learning that Posey was very badly injured, but it could have been worse. The shock that Posey might be out for the rest of the season, the season to defend the World Series title.

Buster Posey’s severe leg and ankle injuries unquestionably make it more difficult for the San Francisco Giants to make the playoffs this season, much less repeat as World Series Champions.  But even as a devoted, crazy, over-the-top Giants fan, the sadness and anger and frustration I feel are not about the more difficult road ahead for the Giants this season.  Defending a World Series title isn’t easy under the best circumstances.  Even with a healthy Posey, the Giants were struggling, scratching and clawing for every win.

No, my anger and frustration and sadness feels deeper than that.  I’ve spent much of the day thinking about why that is. Here’s what I’ve come up with.

Buster Posey embodies everything I love about baseball and I love baseball an awful lot.  I love the grass, and the dirt, and the mound, and the angles.  I love the speed, and the spin, and the swings, and the dives, and the catches, and the throws.  I love the tradition, and the history, and the newness of each pitch, the newness of each swing.  I love how every pitch, every throw to first to keep a runner on, every check of the runner at third changes the play, the strategy, the possibilities of what might come next.  I love how my brain hurts when I watch a game, thinking about the moves, and the counter-moves, and the counter-counter-moves.  I love when a player gets his first hit, his first RBI, his first home run.  I love that sometimes that player is 20 and sometimes he’s 30.  I love that baseball is played every day, for weeks, and months.  I love that every game is an opportunity for greatness, for failure, for redemption.

Buster Posey is a very, very good baseball player, maybe even a great player, however that is measured.  But it’s more than that.  When I watch Posey play, I see his love of baseball. I see his love of the dirt and the grass and the mound and the angles and the spin on the ball and the swings and throws and the catches.  I see his love of the moves and the counter-moves and the counter-counter-moves.  I see that Buster Posey’s love of baseball is very much like my love of baseball.  And that makes me love baseball even more.

The news tonight was grim, but not the worst we feared.  Posey has a fractured fibula in his left leg and tears all around the ligaments in his ankles.  He will likely have surgery and then begin a long and painful rehab and recovery.  Six to eight weeks at a minimum, they say, but who knows what that means.

But Posey will be back.  If not this season, then next season.  And not just because the best doctors and trainers will put his leg back together.  No, Buster Posey will be back because he loves baseball.

And so do I.

Monday was a very interesting day in the baseball world.  Albert Pujols hit his first home run in 100+ at-bats.  Corey Hart his three home runs for the Brewers.  Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz and Jim Thome all hit home runs in their first games off the disabled list.  The Cleveland Indians notched another come-from-behind victory to maintain the best record in the major leagues.

But that’s not what made it interesting.

What made it interesting were two stories of baseball people speaking frankly about their team.  One story broke early in the morning on the east coast.  The other one broke late on the west coast.  The stories involve different teams, different players, different issues.  But the reaction to the two situations was similar, if not identical: speaking frankly is not in the best interests of baseball, the speaker or his team.

The first story involves Mets’ owner Fred Wilpon, the subject of an 11,000 word story by Jeffrey Toobin in The New Yorker.    Wilpon apparently gave a series of open-ended interviews to Toobin so that Toobin would write a favorable story about how Wilpon didn’t know–couldn’t know–what Bernie Madoff was up to.  Wilpon apparently believed that such a story in The New Yorker would be useful in his battle with Madoff trustee Irving Picard.  Whether that’s true or not remains to be seen.

But only a few seemed to care much about the full 11,000 words in Toobin’s article.

Instead, a firestorm erupted over Wilpon’s comments about the Mets’ three “stars”: Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes and David Wright.  I put “stars” in quotation marks because, well, that was the subject of Wilpon’s comments.

Here’s the key excerpt from Toobin’s article:

In the game against the Astros, Jose Reyes, leading off for the Mets, singled sharply up the middle, then stole second. “He’s a racehorse,” Wilpon said. When Reyes started with the Mets, in 2003, just before his twentieth birthday, he was pegged as a future star. Injuries have limited him to a more pedestrian career, though he’s off to a good start this season. “He thinks he’s going to get Carl Crawford money,” Wilpon said, referring to the Red Sox’ signing of the former Tampa Bay player to a seven-year, $142-million contract. “He’s had everything wrong with him,” Wilpon said of Reyes. “He won’t get it.”

 

After the catcher, Josh Thole, struck out, David Wright came to the plate. Wright, the team’s marquee attraction, has started the season dreadfully at the plate. “He’s pressing,” Wilpon said. “A really good kid. A very good player. Not a superstar.”

 

Wright walked.

 

When Carlos Beltran came up, I mentioned his prodigious post-season with the Astros in 2004, when he hit eight home runs, just before he went to the Mets as a free agent. Wilpon laughed, not happily. “We had some schmuck in New York who paid him based on that one series,” he said, referring to himself. In the course of playing out his seven-year, $119-million contract with the Mets, Beltran, too, has been hobbled by injuries. “He’s sixty-five to seventy per cent of what he was.” Beltran singled, loading the bases with one out.

The reaction was swift and nearly universal: Wilpon’s views of his key players may be accurate but what in god’s name was he doing making those views known, on the record?  The Mets are in enough hot water with their fans, the analysts said, this will only make it worse. Why would fans pay to watch a team that the owner doesn’t even think is good?  If Wilpon wants to/needs to trade these players, he’s just driven down the price.  And so on.

I tend to agree with this view.  From what’s been reported, the Mets are facing a dire financial situation, owing in great part to bad (or illicit) investment decisions by Wilpon.  On top of the Madoff mess, ticket sales are down at CitiField, likely for a variety of reasons including high ticket prices, the slugglish economy, and the Mets on-field performance this year, and over the last several years.  Wilpon is courting potential investors and should be courting fans.  Instead, he invested considerable time with Jeffrey Toobin in an effort to make Fred Wilpon look good, but either didn’t think about or couldn’t execute a plan to make the Mets look good.  Instead, it looks like he made matters worse.

The late night west coast story involved Oakland Athletics relief pitcher Brian Fuentes, who had just been tagged with a loss, pushing his record to 1-7.   Fuentes worked primarily as the closer for the Colorado Rockies (2005-2008) and then the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (2009-2010).   He was traded to the Minnesota Twins in mid-2010 and pitched mostly in set-up.  He signed with the A’s before this season as a set-up guy, but when A’s closer Andrew Bailey went down with an injury during spring training, the A’s tapped Fuentes as the closer.

Or so he thought.

Over the last few weeks, A’s manager Bob Geren had called Fuentes to the mound in a variety of non-save situations, including several times with the game tied, on the road.  Fuentes took the loss in one-run games on May 18, May 20 and May 22.  Geren’s use of Fuentes in this way didn’t go unnoticed.  During Monday’s game against the Angels, MLB.com’s beat reporter for the A’s, Jane Lee, tweeted: ” The Fuentes fun continues. He’s now warming in the bullpen with one out in the 7th.”  Sure enough, Fuentes came into a tie game, walked one batter, recorded an out, and was then lifted for Michael Wuertz, who have up the game-winning RBI, allowing the batter Fuentes walked to score.  Fuentes took the loss.

A brouhaha erupted when reporters engaged Fuentes in a post-game interview.  Jane Lee captured the Q&A:

What did you think of the situation you were placed in tonight?

Fuentes: It’s surprising yet not surprising all at the same time.

How do you feel with the way the manager has handled you as a reliever?

Fuentes: Pretty poorly.

How much communication do you have with him?

Fuentes: Zero.

Why is it pretty poorly?

Fuentes: There’s just no communication. Two games, on the road, bring the closer in a tied game, with no previous discussions of doing so. And then, tonight, in the seventh inning, I get up. I haven’t stretched, I haven’t prepared myself. If there was some communication beforehand I would be ready to come into the game  – which I was, when I came into the game, I was ready. Just lack of communication. I don’t think anybody really knows which direction he’s headed.

How much different is this compared to past managers?

Fuentes: It’s a pretty drastic difference.

What goes through your mind when the phone rings in the seventh tonight?

Fuentes: I thought he misspoke. I thought it was some sort of miscommunication, but he said, ‘No, you’re up,’ so I got up and cranked it up. You can’t try to guess along with them. Very unpredictable.

At the beginning of the season, did he tell you that you were the closer?

Fuentes: Yes, from get go, I’ve been closing.

. . .

Has this been boiling up or is it just recent?

Fuentes: Just recent, really. I think the games in San Francisco were some unorthodox managing. I thought it was maybe the National league thing, that maybe that had something to do with it, but tonight was pretty unbelievable.

Reaction was swift and, again, nearly universal: Fuentes was unprofessional.  Fuentes was out of bounds.  Fuentes should pitch better and keep his mouth shut.  (This criticism came from Dennis Eckersley on the As new flagship radio station 95.7 FM). If Fuentes has a communication problem with Bob Geren, he should talk to Geren about it, and not the press.  What was Fuentes thinking? He knows Bob Geren was the best man at GM Billy Beane’s wedding.

I’m not an expert on baseball rules, unwritten or otherwise.  But I understand that, in any industry, it’s generally not a good thing for an employee to publicly take his management to task, particularly if the employee is performing poorly.  I said “generally” because sometimes an employee has a serious gripe and there exists no viable internal channels of communication to remedy the problem.  When the issue is a matter of public concern, we call these folks “whistleblowers.”

Don’t get excited.  I’m not equating Brian Fuentes with Jeffrey Wigand, the whistleblowing tobacco executive made famous by the film The Insider.  Not even close.  Fuentes is a highly-paid baseball player frustrated with his own performance and with the complete lack of communication from his manager.  How he pitches and whether he grabs a beer with Bob Geren doesn’t affect public health or the economy or the billions we waste on military spending.

It does affect the A’s, though, the players, the coaches, and especially the fans.  That’s why the press was asking those questions in the first place.  And calculated or not, Fuentes appears to have decided at that moment that it might be better for the A’s (if not for him personally) if he answered the questions the way he did.  You think Fuentes didn’t know about Geren’s close friendship with Billy Beane?  I bet he knew all too well.

And guess what.  About 24 hours after Fuentes’ comments were first reported–during which time he was publicly flogged by so-called baseball experts–the San Francisco Chronicle‘s Susan Slusser and John Shea reported that Fuentes is not alone.  Former A’s closer Huston Street texted Slusser that, among other things, Geren was “his least favorite person I’ve encountered in sports.”  Shea’s article discusses other former A’s who had dust-ups (or worse) with Geren.  It also reports on players who say they’ve had no communication issues with Geren.

And now that Fuentes made it popular to ask whether Bob Geren is a good baseball manager, many so-called baseball experts (but perhaps not the same ones who excoriated Fuentes) are wondering aloud if it’s time for Geren to go.  Whether Billy Beane will agree remains to be seen.  But the questions have been raised and, I suspect, won’t go away quickly or quietly.

On Tuesday, Fred Wilpon “apologized” to Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran and David Wright.  Did he apologize for his opinions? Or for having stated them publicly? Or something else?  Who really knows.  With Wilpon and the Mets, it’s a well-worn public dance of damage-control now.  Wilpon made a choice with the Toobin interviews and he chose poorly.  But he’s the owner, the decision-maker.  He had a variety of ways to deal with his frustration with the Mets performance that didn’t involve hanging his key players out to dry.  He will suffer the consequences but not alone, as the players, coaches and fans will suffer, too.

Fuentes also apologized on Tuesday, as reported by John Shea, not for what he said, but how he said it (publicly, as opposed to Geren directly). And Geren has now clearly communicated to Fuentes what his role will be: not the closer, but late-inning relief guy. We’ll see how that plays out on the field.  Off the field, Fuentes may have set in motion a much-needed critical review of Geren’s management style.  Now it’s up to Billy Beane and the other decision-makers at the A’s to figure out what is best for the team.  For their sake, and for the sake of the A’s family, let’s hope Beane does a better job than Wilpon.

Three weeks ago, I wondered in this post if the Cleveland Indians would record the fewest fans in attendance per home win of any team since 1990. As noted in the post, that record is currently held by the 2002 Montreal Expos, who drew 812,045 fans to Olympic Stadium and had 49 home wins, giving them 16,572 in attendance per home win.

As of May 3, the Indians had played in front of only 214,132 fans over the course of 15 home games, and had won 13 of those games, resulting in an attendance per home win of just 16,472 fans. I implored Cleveland fans to get to Progressive Field before Cleveland became home to another dubious sports record.

And the call was heeded (OK, maybe it has to do more with improved weather, the weekend series with the in-state rival Cincinnati Reds, and the Indians’ continued winning ways). While the Indians still have only attracted 396,391 fans over the course of 22 home games (for a per game average of 18,018), with 18 home wins, the attendance per home win number has jumped to 22,022.

Unless Indians fans desert the team the rest of the season, the Tribe seems safe from breaking the 2002 Expos record of fewest fans in attendance per home win. Good job Cleveland.  Way to go.

Well, I suppose the Indians could win 70 home games . . . . .

Red Sox swept the Yanks

Will Jorge play, sit or go?

Jeter defends friend

Rivera blows save

Third this season already

Is Mo next to sit?

What about Jeter

He is not ageless either

King of the groundball

Mets made history

No, not a no-hitter, close

Niese pinch-hit triple

Phils triple A team

Thin in the ranks, so many

Now wear Phils jerseys

Reds, Cards duked it out

On the field, in the air, print

Fireworks all season

Timmy’s scoreless streak

Abruptly ended, Rockies

Score seven, three earned

Tribe still in first place

Hafner, Sizemore on DL

Tigers making noise

AL West is tight

No team pulling out in front

None too far behind

This weekend marks the start of interleague games for the 2011 season. It also marks the start of our annual hand-wringing about the silliness of most interleague match-ups and the unfairness of interleague play.  The unfairness criticism is aimed at the games themselves and how the unbalanced interleague schedule affects playoff races. I’ve written extensively about the unbalanced schedule issues here, here, and here. Jason Stark of ESPN just posted his Rumblings & Grumblings column discussing these issues, too.

On the game level, one of the most often-heard critiques is aimed at the American League’s use of the Designated Hitter.  When interleague games are played in American League parks, the DH is used.  In National League parks, the pitchers have to hit for themselves. “Forcing AL teams to give up the DH is a huge disadvantage,” says one critique. “NL teams aren’t built to take advantage of the DH rule,” says another.

Based on how well National League pitchers hit the ball this week, the National League may be poised to win the overall interleague series this season, which it hasn’t done since 2003.

How well did National League pitchers hit this week?

In Monday’s extra-innings game between the Marlins and the Mets, Marlins relief pitcher Burke Badenhop got only his second career major league hit, and it just happened to be an RBI single in the top of the 11th inning to give the Marlins a 2-1 lead. You can watch Badenhop’s hit here. Not to be outdone, Mets starting pitcher John Niese came off the bench in the bottom of the 11th and hit a two-out triple. According to Jayson Stark on Twitter, Niese was the first pitcher to hit a pinch-hit triple since 1932. Unfortunately for the Mets, Niese was stranded at third, and the Marlins won the game 2-1.

Nationals starting pitcher Jason Marquis got two hits in Sunday’s game against the Marlins. One of those hits was an RBI double that knocked in two runs. You can watch it here. The Nationals won the game 8-4. Marquis is batting .333 on the year with an OPS (BA + SLG) of .714. Only Ryan Zimmerman has a higher batting average on the Nationals than Marquis, and Zimmerman’s been on the DL most of the season.

Another Nationals pitcher made headlines with his bat this week. On Thursday, Nationals starting pitcher Livan Hernandez broke up the Mets’ Dillon Gee’s no-hitter in the sixth inning. A Mets pitcher has never thrown a no-hitter. The Mets did win the game, 1-0.

Giants starting pitcher Matt Cain got his team’s first hit off Dodgers’ starter Clayton Kershaw in Wednesday night’s game, starting a rally that led to the Giants first run off Kershaw in 26 1/3 innings–a streak dating back to the 2010 season.  The Giants won 8-5, but only after closer Brian Wilson blew the save and Cody Ross hit a monstrous 3-run HR to win it–but that’s another story.

In Tuesday’s contest between the Diamondbacks and the Padres, Arizona’s starting pitcher Daniel Hudson notched one hit to help the D’backs win 6-1. Hudson is batting .294 for the season with an .OPS of .694. Only Willie Bloomquist has a higher batting average on the D’backs.

Tuesday also saw Giants’ starter Jonathan Sanchez get his third double of the season. At the time Sanchez smacked his double against the Rockies at Coors Field, he had one more double than reigning National League Rookie of the Year Buster Posey.

Another Diamondbacks pitcher did some damage at the plate this week. Joe Saunders got a hit against the Braves to raise his average to .267 with an OPS of .579. Only Hudson, Bloomquist and Ryan Roberts have higher batting averages than Saunders. Perhaps it’s no coincidence the Diamondbacks have won three in a row.

And lest we forget Carlos Zambrano. Although Big Z didn’t do much with the bat this week, he is hitting .250 with a .700 OPS for the season.

So stay tuned.  Maybe one of these pitchers will be slotted in as the DH during interleague games at American League ballparks.  Or come of the bench in a pinch-hit situation.  Or go 3-4 when pitching at home against an American League “rival.”  Hey, interleague has lost its luster, so you might was well root for something out of the ordinary.

On Monday, we looked at three key players in the Rockies lineup–Troy Tulowitzki, Carlos Gonzales and Chris Ianetta–and found them to be streaky at the plate:  short bursts of great offensive output followed by short-to-medium length cold spells. In their games Monday and Tuesday against the Giants, Tulo and CarGo looked to be on the verge of new bursts of great offensive output, at least in those “clutch situations” known as having runners in scoring position.  Both played key roles in the Rockies two-game sweep of the Giants.  The team in purple is now in Philly for a two-game series with the Phillies before heading to Milwaukee to face the Brewers of the weekend.  We’ll keep an eye on whether CarGo and Tulo stay hot.

I promised a look at the streakiness of Rockies pitching and I don’t like to break my promises.  As I was preparing the post, my mind detoured to the fact that the Rockies have three relief pitchers whose first name is Matt: Matt Lindstrom, Matt Belisle and Matt Reynolds.  A coincidence perhaps.  But with relievers Felipe Paulino and Franklin Morales in manager Jim Tracy’s doghouse for consistent ineffectiveness, Esmil Rogers on the disabled list and Clayton Mortensen taking Rogers’ place in the rotation, the Matts will gain even more prominence in the late innings for the Rockies. So I decided to focus on their pitching performances so far in 2011.  And guess what?  They are streaky, but perhaps only a bit more so than other relief pitchers with similar stats.

I’ll show you what I mean.

On Fangraphs, I ranked all National League relief pitchers by WHIP (walks + hits/innings pitched).  I chose WHIP because the number one job of all relievers is to keep opposing batters off base.  WHIP measures a pitcher’s success in doing just that–a low WHIP is good, a high WHIP is not so good.

Of the three Matt relief pitchers on the Rockies, Matt Reynolds has pitched the fewest innings (10.1) and has the lowest WHIP (0.97).    The other National League relief pitchers with WHIPs and innings pitched closest to Reynolds are Esmerling Vazquez of the Diamondbacks (0.95 WHIP/14.2 innings pitched) and Cory Gearrin of the Braves (.098 WHIP/11.1 innings pitched).   While these pitchers may have very similar WHIPs, the route taken by each over the course of the season so far shows Reynolds to be the streakist of the three.

Here are the Fangraphs Daily Graphs showing WHIP for Reynolds, Vazquez and Gearrin.  I’m focusing only on 2011:

Mark Reynolds Daily Graph (WHIP)

Esmerling Vazquez Daily Graph (WHIP)

Cory Gearrin Daily Graph (WHIP)

As the graphs show, Vazquez and Gearrin are more consistent from game to game, while Reynolds has higher highs and lower lows.  You know, streaky.

Next  in line among the Matts is Matt Lindstrom.  He’s pitched 17.1 innings for the Rockies out of the bullpen and has a very nice WHIP of 1.04 to show for it.   The two pitchers I could find with the closest WHIP and innings pitched are Brian Sanches of the Marlins (19.2 innings pitched/1.02 WHIP) and Sergio Mitre of the Brewers (16.1 innings pitched/1.04 WHIP).   Let’s see what the Fangraphs Daily WHIP Graph shows us for these pitchers in 2011:

Matt Lindstrom Daily Graph (WHIP)

Brian Sanches Daily Graph (WHIP)

Sergio Mitre Daily Graph (WHIP)

All three of these pitchers have had their ups and downs so far in 2011.  It’s interesting that Lindstrom started out with a very high WHIP, which he brought down fairly quickly and has maintained since.  Mitre and Sanches started out with super low WHIPs and have slowly crept toward their current season average.

The last of the Matts is Matt Belisle.  He’s pitched 18.1 innings and has a 1.36 WHIP.  The best comps I found were David Hernandez of the Diamondbacks (18.2 innings pitched/1.34 WHIP) and Jason Motte of the Cardinals (17.1 innings pitched/ 1.38 WHIP).

Let’s take a look at Fangraphs’ fancy charts for each:

Matt Belisle Daily Graph (WHIP)

David Hernandez Daily Graph (WHIP)

Jason Motte Daily Graph (WHIP)

Belisle has been up and down all season with his WHIP although he seems to have found consistency over the last several weeks.  David Hernandez also has been up and down, perhaps even more so than Belisle.  Jason Motte started poorly, then found his footing for a fairly long stretch, but his WHIP is inching back up again recently.  Motte seems to have have the longest period of consistency of the three.

As with Tulo and CarGo, for the Rockies to remain atop the NL West, “the Pitchers Matt” will have to find greater consistency in keeping runners off base in the later innings.

I suppose it’s not much news to call a team streaky when the team posts a 17-8 record in April and a 3-10 record so far in May.   The Rockies offense is struggling, recording only 3.92 runs/game in May compared to 4.76 in April.  The pitching is off, too, allowing 5.15 runs/game in May, up almost 1.5 runs/game over April’s average (3.84 runs/game).

Today, I’ll take a look at the streakiest hitters in the Rockies lineup.  Tomorrow, I’ll look at the starting and relief pitchers.   [Note:  I know full well that the San Francisco Giants are playing a 2-game series against the Rockies in Coors Field tonight and tomorrow.  I don't believe in blogger-post jinxes any more than twitter-no hitter jinxes, reverse or otherwise.]

The Rockies played 25 games in April.  All-Star shortstop Troy Tulowitzki played in all 25 games.  In nine of those games, Tulowitzki had zero hits but in ten of those games he had two hits or more.  Five of his multi-hit games came in a span of six games between April 11 and April 16.  Tulowitzki also drew 19 walks in April, and those were clustered in 10 out of the 25 games he started.

In May, Tulowitzki has played in all 13 of the Rockies games and has gone hitless in seven of them.  He only has two multi-hit games in May and, again, they came in a row–Friday, May 13 and Sunday, May 14 against the Padres.  Tulo has drawn only four walks in May.

Here are two charts, courtesy of Fangraphs, showing Tulo’s ups and downs this season in batting average and on-base percentage:

Troy Tulowitzki Daily Batting Average

Troy Tulowitzki Daily On-base Percentage

All-Star leftfielder Carlos Gonzalez started 22 out of 25 Rockies games in April.  He had no multi-hit games between April 10 and April 15 (when Tulo was scorching hot) and between April 18 to April 29.  Indeed, CarGo was hitless between April 19 and April 26.  In April, CarGo drew at least one walk in only seven of 22 starts.

CarGo’s started all 13 Rockies games in May and has three multi-hit games.  Like Tulo, two such games were back-to-back (May 3 and 4) with the only other one coming on May 14.  In May, he’s drawn walks in seven of his thirteen starts.

More graphs from Fangraphs:

Carlos Gonzales Daily Batting Average

Carlos Gonzalez Daily On-base Percentage

Perhaps the streakiest player on the Rockies is catcher Chris Ianetta.  After collecting two hits against the Diamondbacks on April 2, Ianetta didn’t produce another multi-hit game until May 6, and then had two or more hits in three of four games (May 6, May 8 and May 9).   In 30 starts, Ianetta’s been held hitless in 14 games (although, to be fair, in five of those games, he draw 2 or more walks).

Even more graphs from Fangraphs:

Chris Ianetta Daily Batting Average

Chris Ianetta Daily On-base Percentage

First baseman Todd Helton’s been a relatively steady and productive bat for the Rockies this season, as has second baseman Jonathan Herrera.  Third base has been steady for the Rockies–steadily awful.  Now that he’s back from the DL, Ty Wiggington will look to provide some stability at that position.

But as the 3 and 4 hitters, Tulo and CarGo drive the offense.  If the Rockies are stay competitive in the National League West, those two hitters need to find consistency, within themselves and with each other.

Midwest rains won’t stop

Swelling rivers, flooding homes

Games off, lives on hold

No love lost between

Dusty’s Reds and Tony’s Cards

Midwest showdown played

Reds swept all three games

Cards bullpen work in progress

Reds offense in gear

O’s take two from Rays

Hellickson, Arrieta

Young stars on the mound

Red Sox sweep Yankees

Bronx Bombers look old, slow, meek

Jorge-gate heats up

Two teams, great pitching

Braves, Phils in NL East duel

Hudson beats Doc Roy

Giants, Cubs, wet, cold

Only fifteen innings played

Each team with one win

Dodgers one hit Snakes

Lost one to zero, D’backs

Took two out of three

What is up with Pads?

Offense now revs in high gear

Rockies stumbling

Rain stops Tigers’ streak

Verlander almost no-no

Catching up to Tribe

Indians lost two

To the rain, not to the M’s

Grady on DL

Trevor Cahill lost

His own errors did him in

Chisox win series

Marlins hit, field, pitch

Recipe for winning games

Take two from the Nats

Brewers pound Pirates

Braun breaks out of slump, Greinke

Gallardo get wins

Angels and Rangers

Battle for AL West lead

Texas takes series

Are there mulligans

In baseball? Twins would like one

Season going down

Bautista homers

One Friday, one Saturday

Three times on Sunday

Mets take two from ‘Stros

Another second baseman

Turner has a day

First series win this

Century, Royals in Bronx

Hosmer jack again

Beltran likes Coors Field

First three homer game ever

Mets send Rox reeling

What is the complaint?

Matt Cain, three runs of support

Giants win six straight

James Shields is real good

Out-mastered Masterson, Tribe

Rays take two of three

Matt Holliday hits

Cardinals score runs, Garcia

Pitches, Cards beat Cubs

Eleven innings

Neither Ms nor Os can score

Os two in twelfth, win

Braves down big early

Prado grand slam ties it, Nats

Cough it up in ten

Last weekend, Buster Olney reported in his Sunday column (sub. req’d) that new MLB Vice President Joe Torre was working hard on a plan to clamp down on player fraternization before and during games.  It’s the ever-elusive “some folks in the game” who apparently think it’s a no-no for fans to see players chatting it up during batting practice or while sharing a base during the game. The comments left on Olney’s column suggest that at least those fans don’t care a whit about whether players act friendly to each other on the baseball field.

On Monday’s Hardball Talk, Craig Calcaterra provided his usually witty and sane take on Torre’s “Don’t Love They Neighbor” vision for major league players:

I can’t think of a single reason why this would be a priority for anyone in Major League Baseball. What, you don’t want to show fans that it’s OK to like and respect their competitors? That it’s more than a game and extends into personal rivalry? Isn’t that the exact opposite that the Dodgers and Giants players tried to demonstrate back when they had their first series following the beating of Bryan Stow?

Much like Olney’s readers, most (if not all) of HBT’s commenters agreed with Calcaterra’s view, expressing disbelief that Torre and MLB would spend energy on this “issue” much less make it a high priority. Calcaterra visited the issue again the next day, in a video chat with SI’s Joe Sheehan, who roundly criticized Torre’s plan. A quick spin through the inter-webs didn’t reveal much concern at all by anyone that pre-game high-fives and in-game chit-chats by major league ballplayers on opposing teams were undermining the integrity or competitiveness of the game or upsetting even the most passionate and loyal fans.

As I reflected on the issue, I found myself in agreement with this prevailing view (a not too common thing in my life). But something was gnawing at me. I seemed to remember bloggers and columnists and fans recently expressing the contrary view, taking players to task for pre-game hugs and post-game laughs with guys on the other team. But it wasn’t baseball players on the hot seat.

No, the criticism was directed at the NBA. “Are some NBA players too friendly,” asked a fan on a Toronto Raptors blog? “Dwight Howard and Shaquille O’Neal Should not hug after games,” quipped an Orlando Sentinel sports columnist. Cleveland fans went berserk when Cavaliers players hugged LeBron on the court before his first game against his old team.

And that got me thinking. Why do baseball fans and the baseball commentariat think it’s just fine and dandy for opposing players to show their friendship on the field–even while the game is on-going–while their basketball comrades take the completely opposite view? Is it simply the closeness, the physicality of basketball that drives fans to demand a more warrior-like mentality from NBA players? Or is something else going?

As much as it may make us uncomfortable, I think race has something to do with it. And I don’t mean racism, but race. In large measure, the NBA is a league of African-American stars and non-African-American (i.e. white) fans. It’s not a secret. It may not be discussed widely because we’re not good at talking about race in this country, but we see it, we know it. Maybe basketball fans don’t like to be reminded how far outside the NBA players’ fraternity they really are. How unattainable their skills and stardom are. How “other” these NBA stars are.

We don’t have these feelings about baseball players. Maybe because the “we” is not just white, but all sorts of colors, creeds and ethnicities, just like the players themselves. The ballplayers seem approachable. They remind us of people we’ve met or known or heard about. When we see players from opposing teams talking on the field during BP or during the game, we get it. We understand it. And we’re not threatened by it.

I love this about baseball. I love the “everyman” feeling about the game and the fans. And I don’t want Joe Torre to take it away.

ChiSox rally late

Omar Vizquel still swings bats

Angels throw the game

Hosmer fever pitch

First jack, family cheering

Royals over Yanks

Braves bullpen meltdown

Opens door for Nationals

Who have Braves’ number

Cliff Lee gets no runs

Marlins early lead, J-Roll

Gets Phillies a win

Cubs unload on Cards

Westbrook the victim, Castro

Hits way out of slump

Hunter Pence hit streak

Climbs to fifteen, no one cares

He gets walk off, too

Lackey lacking stuff

Blue Jays tee off on Red Sox

No five hundred yet

Who woke the Padres?

Offense in high gear, Brewers

Disappointing fans

Gloves were on display

Giants, D’backs by the Bay

SF one run win

Grady Sizemore hurt

Tribe home winning streak ends, Rays

Back on track on road

Tigers making run

Twins play like their drinking rum

Capps blows late comeback

Rangers played the As

But then the storms came, and made

The game disappear

The baseball world is abuzz with anticipation for the Phillies-Marlins game tonight, where Roy Halladay will take on Josh Johnson.  Halladay is 5-1 with a 2.19 ERA.  He strikes out nearly 10 batters per nine innings and walks less than 2. Until his two most recent starts, Johnson had taken a no-hitter into the fifth inning or later in every game he pitched this season.  His record is 3-1 with a 1.68 ERA.  He Ks fewer batters/nine innings than Halladay, and walks more, but has given up only 26 hits all season.  As Phillies beat writer Todd Zolecki just tweeted:

Halladay and Johnson have allowed 1 earned run in 32 innings last 2 times they’ve faced each other.

The Phillies and the Marlins have the two best records in the National League and are 1-2 in the National League East, with the Braves close on their heels. So this game is important not just for its marque pitching battle, but for position in the division and, potentially, as a preview of October playoff games.

But there are other good pitchers duels on the scoreboard tonight. I’m particularly looking forward to the Rays-Indians game, where the hottest road team in the American League (8 straight wins for the Rays) is taking on the hottest home team in the American League (13 straight wins for the Indians). You know what they say about the meeting of two immovable forces.

This game features pitchers much, much less well known than Halladay and Johnson but who are pitching well. The Rays will send Andy Sonnenstine from the bullpen to the mound for the start, taking the place of Jeff Niemann, who is on the DL. In 12.1 innings pitched out of the pen, Sonnenstine’s posted a 2.19 ERA, with batters hitting only .220 off him. Josh Tomlin will pitch for the Indians. He’s 4-1 with a 2.43 ERA. Batters are hitting only .172 off Tomlin. Both pitchers have WHIPs (Walks+Hits/Innings Pitched) below 1.0.

Tonight’s game is the first time ever that the Rays have faced the Indians when both teams were in first place in their respective divisions. It may have unthinkable after the first week of the season, but like the Phillies-Marlins matchup, this game may also be a preview of things to come in October. And stay tuned to Thursday’s series finale between these two teams, which will be another pitchers duel: James Shields for the Rays (3-1, 2.01 ERA) v. Justin Masterson (5-0, 2.11 ERA).

Another game with an interesting pitching matchup is the Cardinals v. Cubs game at Wrigley Field. Chris Carpenter (0-2, 4.19 ERA) starts for the Cardinals against Carlos Zambrano (4-1, 4.23 ERA)for the Cubs. Both pitchers are posting numbers considerably off their career averages (strikeouts down, walks and runs allowed up). But in the last four years, Carpenter and Zambrano were two of the most fearsome pitchers in the National League. Here’s to hoping they both regain that old form, in the same game, tonight.

Oh, and Tim Lincecum’s pitching tonight for the Giants.  No matter who he’s facing (tonight, it’s Ian Kennedy of the Diamondbacks), there is always of the possibility of pitching magic.

Runs will be at a premium tonight. I can’t wait.

It’s nearly mid May

Pirates over five hundred

Dream? Reality?

Tabata catch? Trap?

Donny baseball argued, lost

Bucs scored three and win

Wizard of defense?

Yuniesky Betancourt

On this night he was

Greinke’s first home start

Outdueled Latos, now winless

Brewers beat Padres

Carl Crawford awakes

Game winning hit for Red Sox

Twins troubles go on

Chris Ianetta

One man show for Rox, Chacin

Walks many Mets, wins

Chi Sox pound out eight

Edwin Jackson blanks Angels

Story of the game

See Travis Wood pitch

See Travis Wood hit home runs

See Reds beat Astros

Two pitchers, sixth win

Tigers’ Scherzer, A’s Cahill

Jays, Rangers both lose

Mother’s Day weekend

Husband in China for work

Two kids here with me

At seven and ten

They don’t quite get it, so Mom

Missed too much baseball

Not a full recap

More like taste of MLB

With pink cleats and bats

Verlander no-no

One walk shy of perfecto

Second in career

Others had close calls

Gallardo and Anibal

And Vogelsong too

Three syllable names

Hmm, Liriano has four

Clue to great pitching?

Sam Fuld is mortal

Steals homer on Saturday

Flubs flyball Sunday

Rays roll anyway

Sweep Os, get to twenty wins

One more than the Yanks

What’s wrong with Rangers?

After blistering start, now

Behind A’s, Angels

Phillies, Braves squared off

Playoff preview, top pitchers

Braves win two, Phils one

Hosmer-mania

Sweeps through Kauffman Stadium

But A’s take series

Giants silence Rox

Tulo, Cargo very cold

Two walk-offs, shutout

Ethier streak done

Stopped by stop-gap pitcher Gee

Are Dodgers fading?

Tribe still in first place

Will starters, bullpen hold up?

Tigers, Royals chase

Brewers bats missing

Swept by Braves, lost two to Cards

Can they make up gap?

Into the wet night

Angels, Red Sox played a game

Night turned to morning

Sox no hits for six

Before rain and after, tied

Game with two in ninth

Into extras, ho!

Youk deep to left, but off wall

Marco out at home

And on it went, more

Thirteenth lucky for Angels

Two thirty a.m.

Timmy the kid dealt

Twelve Ks, breaking franchise mark

Giants score two, win

Braves sweep the Brew Crew

Hanson, Hudson quiet Braun

McClouth Braves hero

Marlins rally late

Stanton homer wins for Fish

Cards bullpen, again

Last at-bat for Reds

Does the trick against Lyon

Astros lose in ninth

A’s beat Indians

Tribe winning streak ends, two jacks

DeJesus gets both

Pineda was good

Wilson, Rangers were better

M’s three out of first

Big Z quiets Blue

Cubs hit three homers, enough

Dodgers no offense

Arrieta wins

Orioles still battling

Francouer hot hitter

Twins shut down ChiSox

Not no hitter, same result

Sox just cannot hit

Maddon ejected

Safe call reversed, who knows why

Jays edge Rays by one

Rare game at Petco

Homers hit by Pirates, Pads

Bucs early lead holds

A real no-hitter

Twenty-seven outs, no hits

But six walks, two Ks

Liriano in

Record books of MLB

No points for pretty

Rays are delighted

Now ChiSox team to no-hit

More than once this year

Rays more walk-off wins

B. J. Upton 2-run jack

David Price cartwheels

Haren like Weaver

Falters at Fenway, Lester

Strong again, Sox win

Ethier, one hit

Streak at twenty-nine, Broxton

Walks two Cubs, loses

Werth back in Philly

Boos, cheers, Werth tips cap, Hamels

Shuts down Nats, Phils win

Dangerous mission

SEALS found the Giants offense

For one night, beat Mets

Reds keep on losing

Even with Votto, can’t score

Leake not sharp on mound

Another Upton

Another big, late homer

Justin, Snakes beat Rox

Pirates bullpen good

But Pads get to Beimel, score

Saving Pads bullpen

Cards, Fish, two good teams

Potential playoff series

Cards win, later homer

Tigers losing streak

Broken against Yanks, Penny

Beats Sabathia

Royals winning still

Frenchy walk off, not homer

Sac fly, still a win

Tribe bats come alive

Ninth inning rally, score four

A’s only five hits

Don’t look now, but M’s

Just two games out of first place

Rangers need Josh back

CNBC’s sports business reporter extraoridnaire Darren Rovell started a Twitter trend in April with his #emptystadiumseries.  Fans would twitpic photos of empty MLB stadiums while games were in progress and Rovell would re-tweet the photos along with the #emptystadiumseries hashtag.  If you followed these tweets (like I did), you were left with the impression that attendance around Major League ballparks was significantly down so far in 2011.

Attendance is down in 2010, but as Tom Verducci reports in Sports Illustrated, only 369 fewer fans on average have shown up to each game, as compared to games played through the first month of last season. Verducci writes that MLB’s attendance problem is one of perception, not reality. Chalk it up to the power of Twitter? Rovell? Bad MLB PR?

Except in Cleveland. The Cleveland Indians have a real attendance problem. Which is a shame, because the Tribe are leading the American League Central with an overall record of 20-8, and have won 13 straight games on their home turf at Progressive Field. And if Indians fans don’t start showing up to watch the Tribe play at home, the Indians could record the fewest fans in attendance per home win of any team since 1990. Wow.

The current “record holder” over the last 20 years for lowest attendance per home win is the 2002 Montreal Expos. [Note: I have excluded the strike year of 1994 from the calculation]. In 2002, the Expos drew 812,045 fans to Olympic Stadium and had 49 home wins, giving them 16,572 in attendance per home win. The same year, the Florida Marlins attracted just over 1,000 more fans than did the Expos, but only won 46 home games, leaving the Marlins with 17,676 fans per home win. That’s the second lowest attendance per home win ratio since 1990.  Both those teams obliterated the previous record, held by the 1992 Houston Astros, who saw 1,211,412 fans at the Astrodome for 47 wins, for an attendance per home win average of 25,775. If only the 2000 Expos had played better at home; only 642,745 fans showed up that year to Olympic Stadium, but the Expos won only 34 games that year–an attendance per home win average of 18,904.

Yes, it was a cold and wet and dreary April in Cleveland. But the Indians are the hottest team in baseball. No matter. Through 15 home games in 2011, only 214,132 fans watched the Indians at Progressive Field. The Tribe’s won 13 of those 15 home games. That’s only 16,472 in attendance per home win for the team in first place in the American League Central. The Marlins and the Tampa Bay Rays get a lot of attention for their low attendance figures, but those teams are raking in the fans compared to the Indians (265,407 for the Marlins through 15 home games; 276,893 for the Rays through 16 home games). But the Marlins and Rays don’t have nearly the home records the Indians do, so their attendance per home win averages are much higher (26,541 for the Marlins; 39556 for the Rays).

Wake up Cleveland. Your Cavaliers broke the NBA’s single-season record for consecutive losses this season and you still showed up in droves to Quicken Loans Arena. LeBron is gone. Grady and Travis and Carlos and Justin are here. And they’re good. And they’re winning. So get out to Progressive Field before Cleveland becomes home to another dubious and unwelcome sports record.

Attendance figures courtesy of ballparksofbaseball.com. Attendance per home win numbers courtesy of my Sharp Advanced D.A.L. calculator.

Fans gather and cheer

Players compete, give it all

In end, just a game

Citizens Bank Park

Bin Laden death news buzzed, fast

U-S-A chanted

And game continued

Long into night, with score tied

Mets finally won

Like nine eleven

The game of bats, balls, bases

Brings us together

Lots of weekend games

Played before the big news broke

Stories to be told

After west coast surge

Red Sox struggling again

M’s won 2 of 3

Indians are hot

Late inning rallies, walk-offs

Thirteen straight at home

White Sox down, Twins too

AL Central hopes fading

Ten games back of Tribe

Marlins big surprise

Homer happy against Reds

Bonifacio

Sam Fuld joins twitter

Now he can’t hit, no matter

Rays win two of three

Yankees in first place

Pitching woes been put aside

Hitting wins ballgames

Giants were good, lucky

To win World Series last year

This year, not so much

Cards took two from Braves

Sunday game lost by bullpen

So what else is new

Ubaldo struggles

Bucs beat Rockies twice at Coors

CarGo still in slump

Mosley gets first win

ERA well below two

Ethier streak lives

Outfield collision

Lee taken off on stretcher

‘Stros shutout Brewers

This video has been around a few years, but I just found it and couldn’t resist. Enjoy.

Legend of Who, Sam?

Zobrist, two games, 10 ribbies

Rays sweep away Twins

Tribe keeps on rolling

Sizemore back in a big way

Carmona solid

Pineda is big

Big strikes, big game, big on mound

Smoak strokes, M’s first sweep

Tight game, Rangers, Jays

Texas missing Josh, Feliz

Weird top nine, Jays win

Seven years to wait

Volgelsong eight Ks, bunt hit

Bucs err, Giants win

Lester goes eight strong

AGon clutch hits, Salty too

Red Sox avoid sweep

See Livan pitch, bunt

See Ike hit, field, Desmond sees

kid’s birth, fuels Nats win

Top sixth, Stros in lead

Cards put nine on board, Puma

Rejuvenated

Deep breaths in the Bronx

Swisher jacks his first one out

Yanks cruise, ChiSox lose

Snakes seven run first

Added four more, Quade seethes

Wheels falling off Cubs

Mike Quade, Cubs’ chief

Upset by Dodgers’ base steal

With big lead, last week

But no lead is safe

Three teams, four run leads, squandered

Wednesday baseball

Reds scored four in first

Brewers chip away at lead

Stubbs homers, Reds win

Fish four in second

Barajas jack makes lead one

LA wins in tenth

Guthrie throwing strikes

O’s lead by four, Red Sox tie

Birds win on Vlad hit

Bucs’ McDonald strong

Lowers ERA by three

Giants bats silent

Braves four run lead held

Pounded Mat Latos, Padres

Offense is missing

Rays also score four

Five straight hits in first inning

Cruise to win, Twins lose

One Cano homer

Backs Bartolo Colon, Yanks

ChiSox flail again

Indians for real

Tomlin copies Masterson

Royals back to earth

A’s new pitcher Ross

Shuts down Angels, Vernon Wells

Error gives A’s win

Phillies bats wake up

Cole Hamels quiets D’backs

Phils get one of three

Reyes hits triple

Called out, clearly safe, went nuts

Mets win sixth in row

Six hits, seven runs

Efficient Rangers beat Jays

No Bautista jack

Bedard gets first win

Seattle, Detroit close game

M’s get sixth in ninth

Cards hit double plays

Bullpen implodes once again

Hold on to beat ‘Stros

His name, Lillibridge

Pinch runs, makes late, diving grabs

Saves win for White Sox

His name, Darren Ford

Pinch runs, creates havoc, scores

Gets win for Giants

His name, Mike Stanton

Fields, hits, runs, creates havoc

Helps Marlins to win

His name, Masterson

Throws strikes, five wins, unbeaten

Indians get win

His name, Zach Britton

Young stud on the mound for O’s

Stops Red Sox win streak

His name, David Ross

Backup catcher, two home runs

Braves bury Padres

His name, Ike Davis

No sophomore slump, three hits

Mets roll, beat the Nats

His name, Todd Helton

Two homers at Wrigley Field

Rockies edge out Cubs

His name, King Felix

Good enough, help from Rayburn

Tips homer, M’s win

His name, Adam Lind

He’s no Bautista, but slams

Two jacks, Blue Jays win

His name, Mitchell Boggs

New Cards closer, same result

Blown save, Astros win

His name, Ryan Braun

Long term deal, longer homers

Brew crew over Reds

His name, Hank Conger

Who? Halos rookie catcher

His hits beat the A’s

His name, Roy Oswalt

Gives up early runs, first loss

Snakes edge Phils again

Back in March, I analyzed whether unbalanced interleague schedules had affected National League division races and wild card races between teams in the same division. I concluded that, for the most part, unbalanced interleague schedules had not affected those races.

In that post, I admittedly didn’t analyze whether unbalanced interleague schedules had affected wild card races between National League teams in different divisions because of the unbalanced intraleague schedule introduced in the 1998 season. That year, the Arizona Diamondbacks came into the National League (in the NL West), the Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays came into the American League (in the AL East), the Detroit Tigers moved to the AL Central (from the AL East) and the Milwaukee Brewers moved to the NL Central (from the AL Central).

The unbalanced intraleague schedule used between 1998-2000 had teams playing 12-13 games against other teams in their division and 8, 9 or 10 games against teams in other divisions. In 2001, the intraleague schedules became even more unbalanced, with teams playing 16-18 games against division rivals and 6 or 7 games against teams in other divisions.  In the thirteen seasons since 1998, eleven Wild Card races have come down to teams in different divisions.

Here’s the breakdown:

Of these eleven races, only one was decided by more than 3 games; six races were decided by only 1 game. Even without a closer inspection of the particular schedules of the teams in these exceedingly close Wild Card races, it is safe to say that the unbalanced intraleague schedules for these National League teams impacted the Wild Card races in one way or another. The same is true for the unbalanced interleague schedules. Whether the Wild Card winner would have been a different team under different scheduling we’ll never know. But when only one game separates the Wild Card winner and the second place team, any differentiation in schedule between the two must have had some effect on the outcome of the race.

Now comes word that MLB Commissioner Bud Selig wants to expand the playoffs starting in 2012 to include a second Wild Card team. The plan is sketchy: would it be a one-game playoff between the two Wild Card teams; a best-of-three series; something else? The players union is open to discussing the idea, but will consider it as part of discussions toward a new Collective Bargaining Agreement.

Yesterday, Jayson Stark of ESPN wrote a very thoughtful post raising all sorts of questions about how expanded playoffs would work and whether changes would need to be made to the unbalanced intraleague schedules and to interleague play. Stark notes that teams have complained for years about the unfairness of competing for the Wild Card against teams that play different schedules. And as we see from the above table, that unfairness charge has been borne out more years than not.

As close as the actual National League Wild Card races have been since 1998, the hypothetical races for the National League Second Wild Card–had such a thing existed between 1998 and 2010–would have been just as close. In nine of those thirteen seasons, the race for the hypothetical “Second Wild Card” would have been decided by 3 games or less and in those nine races, eight involved teams from different divisions.

Here’s the breakdown:

Jayson Stark is right. If Major League Baseball and the players agree to add another Wild Card team to the playoffs, and they care at all about setting up a fair process for deciding who that additional Wild Card team will be, then they’ll need to make changes to the unbalanced intraleague and unbalanced interleague schedules now in use.

Correction: Reader mkd correctly pointed out that I had the wrong team as the Hypothetical Second Wild Card in 1999.  It was the San Francisco Giants with a record of 86-76, not the Pittsburgh Pirates at 78-83.  I’ll leave it to the psychoanalysts who read this blog to figure out how/why I made an error costing the Giants a hypothetical second wild card spot.

At one point Sunday

Five pitchers, no hits through three

Alas, none to be

Ubaldo and Josh

Traded zeros, then walks, hits

Fish win with Stanton

Doc had fourteen Ks

Phils held Padres to three runs

In four game series

Heyward’s back, Braves swept

See-saw battle, weak bullpens

McClouth clutch in tenth

Rays at five hundred

Consecutive complete games

By Shields, enough runs

White Sox are a mess

Not just bullpen, offense meak

Tigers sweep the series

O’s put dent in Mo

Comeback thriller at Camden

Yanks win in extras

Big Z mystery

Dodgers score five in first, cruise

Beat Cubs two of three

Mets are alive, alive

Wright jacks two out of Citi

Pitching gets better

Red Sox sweep Angels

Lackey sharp against old team

Hand-wringing stops now

Brewers like to hit

Good pitching from Wolf big help

Braun a happy man

Rangers back on track

Swept Royals at Arlington

But Feliz on shelf

Twins clawing way back

Sweep first place Tribe, pitching woes

May bring Tribe downfall

Nationals bats wake

Take Sunday game from Pirates

Both teams get better

A’s split M’s series

Brett Anderson tops on mound

CoCo catches, hits

Rain soaked weekend ball

Cards take rubber game, Westbrook

Better than Volquez

Quick tour through best, worst

MLB games, highlights

Friday, Saturday

Anibal Sanchez

Near no-no against Rockies

Would’ve been Fish sixth

Lester beats Angels

First loss for Haren, Red Sox

Are they righting ship

Reds’ Volquez “game played”

Never pitched, long rain delay

Cards win, Baker’s miffed

Saturday slugfest

Dodgers knock Dempster around

Five in eighth, Cubs win

CC gets first win

Yanks make it easy this time

Five homers off O’s

Tim and Timmy duel

Hudson wins, Lincecum off

Braves had timely hits

Mets win third in row

All since Jason Bay return

Bay, Davis homer

Franklin not closer

Pitches eighth instead, blows it

Cairo bases loaded hit

A’s finally score

Kouzmanoff, Pennington jacks

Trevor Cahill rolls

Phils dominate Pads

Go for four game sweep Sunday

Halladay on mound

Baseball bloggers and such are buzzing today over the utter lack of power shown by Derek Jeter so far in 2011 and his (related) knack for hitting grounders. Given Jeter’s 2010 performance, these numbers are only mildly surprising, meaning Jeter was expected by most baseball analysts (including Yankees GM Brian Cashman) to continue his steady offensive decline. Even so, it is news that Jeter has the ninth lowest slugging percentage among all major leaguers in games played through April 21.

Other players are off to a much more surprisingly slow start. Let’s take a look.

Carl Crawford, LF, Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox made a big winter splash by signing Crawford to a 7-year contract worth more than $140 million. Crawford played the previous nine seasons with Tampa Bay and averaged .296/.337/.444 in that time. The advanced statistics gurus projected a 2011 season slightly above Crawford’s career averages.

Through three weeks of the season, Crawford ranks second to last in the majors in batting average (.143), third to last in on-base percentage (.200) and dead last in slugging percentage (.171). Crawford is also last in wRAA (weighted Runs Above Average) at -8.6–meaning that Crawford has created 8.6 fewer runs for the Red Sox than the league-average left fielder would have created through the first three weeks of the season. Yes, you can say “Wow.”

Jack Cust, OF/DH, Seattle Mariners

Cust played full-time for the Oakland A’s in 2007-2009 and part of the season in 2010 after the A’s cut Cust and worked his way back up through the minors. Cust does three things well: take walks, strike out, and hit for power. Over the almost four seasons in Oakland, Cust posted an average slash line of .247/.381/.457. His career walk rate (over 10 seasons) is 17.3%, double the average throughout the majors. Cust’s strikeout rate is also nearly double the average (31.6% v 17.2%).

In 2011, Cust’s walk rate is just slightly below his career average (16.7%), as is his strikeout rate (29.5%), but he isn’t hitting at all, and when he does hit, it’s not with any power whatsoever. Cust’s slash line through April 21 is .185/.321/.200. He has the fifth lowest slugging percentage in the majors and has not hit a home run. Not good, for a slugger.

Dan Uggla, 2B, Atlanta Braves

Uggla is known for his power, particularly for a second baseman. In five seasons with the Florida Marlins, Uggla hit 25+ HRs/season and had an average slugging percentage of .488. He also had a fairly discerning eye in the batter’s box. In the last three seasons, his walk rate was 12.6%, above the MLB average.

So far in 2011, Uggla’s walk rate has plummeted to 4.9%. He’s swinging at way more pitches than his career average. And when he swings, he’s not getting hits, much less hitting for much power. His current slash line is .195/.235/.403. His .235 on-base percentage is the ninth lowest in the majors.

Statistics courtesy of Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference.com.

What do you think?

Blown saves all around

One each by Braves and Dodgers

In the same inning

Braves down to last strike

Rally against Kershaw, score

two runs to take lead

Dodgers tie in ninth

Traded zeros till the twelfth

Kemp walk off, again

Indians blown save

Perez was perfect till then

Melky walk off hit

Reds get one from Snakes

What a week for Leake, a win

Six shirts, an arrest

Latos oh and three

Phillies lead by Schneider, Orr

Who? What I said, too

Twins hold off the O’s

Thome homer five nine one

Baker gets the win

Mets go nuts on Happ

Big game for Wright, Pagan hurt

Astros miss the sweep

M’s one, A’s zero

Felix pitched like king on mound

McCarthy tough loss

Beckett pitched a gem

Red Sox scored two, Angels tie

AGon late big hit

Marlins quietly

Hitting, pitching and hitting

Beat Pirates again

Two pitchers, perfect

Narveson and Hochevar

Until they weren’t

Brewers jumped on Phils

Had three zero lead through five

Phils won four to three

Hochever perfect

Five innings, then Tribe scored four

Indians by two

Giants score in first

Not enough, Rockies rock Cain

Tulo’s bat awakes

Nats, Cards split two games

Nats take first, pummel Westbrook

Garcia wins second

Cubs, Padres split, too

Padres left thirty on base

Scored more in Game Two

Weaver first to five

Bourjous revs Halos, Rangers

Missing Hamilton

Mets get hits, runs scarce

Astros last to win two straight

Dickey takes the loss

Dodgers boss muzzled

Dodgers hitters punish Lowe

Garland complete game

Red Sox first road win

Gio gives up homers, A’s

Rally falls just short

Fuld hitless again

Rays find a way, beat White Sox

Chicago flailing

Bartolo’s return

Sparks Yankees over Blue Jays

Martin, Grandy hot

One of the advantages of having your own blog is that you have an open platform to say whatever you want.  Nearly 100% of what I want to say has to do with baseball–pitching a baseball, catching a baseball, hitting a baseball, running for a baseball, throwing a baseball, talking about baseball, writing about baseball, analyzing baseball. That’s why you read this blog (and I thank you for that).

I’m detouring just a bit today to interest you in some terrific San Francisco Giants memorabilia that was donated to my kids’ school and is now available at our on-line auction.  You many only care about the memorabilia, but nevertheless I will tell you that the money raised during this on-line auction pays for extra teachers (to keep class sizes small), specialists in computers, art, music and gardening, and other “extras” that are no longer covered by our bare-bones school district budget.

Here’s the link to the baseball items available at the auction.  Feel free, of course, to peruse all of the wonderful items for sale.

http://auctions.readysetauction.com/grattanelementary/catalog/view/56

So bid on some keepsakes from the World Series Champion Giants.  You’ll be happy and so will the families at Grattan Elementary School in San Francisco.

Will ESPN

Show every Josh Johnson start

All are no-hit bids

JJ shutdown Bucs

Marlins scored six runs, enough

For ninth win of year

Sam Fuld got no hits

Joyce made great catch of the day

Rays still edge White Sox

Mo was not ‘beta

Jays score two in ninth off Mo

Snider hit wins it

Halladay “rocked”

Brewers score four off of Doc

Wolf shuts out Phillies

Mets look hapless

Wandy sharp on mound for ‘Stros

Six runs for the win

Royals win this one

Chen throws well, Soria saves

Indians lead: one

Snakes homer happy

Gallaraga gets third win

D’backs over Reds

Giants big in first

Sanchez shows swing and miss stuff

Tulo, CarGo Ks

Braves, Dodgers game

Pitchers duel or bad offense

Braves explode in ninth

Angels ride their young

Bottom of order on fire

Halos, Rangers tied

A’s know Lackey well

Anderson does better job

Tito out, A’s win

Ms score thirteen runs

Show lots of patience at plate

Tigers lose their tenth

Yesterday, I mused about whether a full season of Sam Fuld can lead the Tampa Bay Rays to the promised land–back to the playoffs. The post was a humorous take on the Jewish holiday of Passover, which began at sundown last night, the Passover hero Moses, and the Legend of Sam Fuld.

So what did Fuld do for the Rays on the first night of Passover? He delivered, at the plate and in the field. Fuld was 4-for-4 with 3 singles and a double. He also made another spectacular outfield catch, this time in center field.

But Fuld wasn’t the only Jewish player in action on Monday and he wasn’t the only one to deliver for his team.

Starting with the morning game at Fenway, Kevin Youkilis got his bat going with a 2-for-5 day, the two hits being a double and a home run. He also made a very nice play on a pop-up caught in the wind.  Ryan Braun helped the Brewers defeat the Phillies, going 3-for-4 (3 singles) and a walk. Danny Valencia, third baseman for the Twins, had 2 singles and an RBI groundout. Twins won their second game in a row for the first time all season. And the Rangers won the battle for first place in the AL West with a win over the Angels, with a little help from second baseman Ian Kinsler. Kinsler’s bat had been very cold after a hot start, but last night he drew 2 walks, and hit a double and a triple.

Pitchers Jason Marquis (Nationals), Scott Feldman (Rangers), John Grabow (Cubs), and Craig Breslow (Athletics) had the night off. So did Rays outfielder Gabe Kapler.

Must’ve been some pretty good matzo.

Timmy’s near no-no

Cooled off Tulo and CarGo

Giants blast three jacks

Patriots Day game

Dice-K hammered the strike zone

Lowrie ignites Sox

Both teams red and white

C.J. Wilson stuffed Angels

Rangers scored seven

Phillies tie in ninth

Betancourt with play of game

Kendrick coughs it up

Lilly’s not been sharp

No one told the Braves hitters

Sands first big league hit

Indians, Royals

Play for AL Central lead

Are the Tribe for real

Legend of Sam Fuld

Grows with four hits, sliding catch

Price baffles White Sox

Pirates stifle Reds

Correia pitched complete game

Walker hot for Bucs

Ms just aren’t good

Tigers score four off Lueke

Cabrera birthday

Twins win two in row

Orioles fading quickly

Capps gets easy save

Wrigley cold, windy

Stauffer, Big Z trade zeroes

Cubs win one nothing

In California, it’s just hours before the first night of Passover, the Jewish holiday that commemorates Moses’ heroic efforts to free the Jews from slavery in Egypt and lead them to Israel–the Promised Land.  You may know the story best as depicted in the Cecil B. DeMille classic film The Ten Commandments: Charlton Heston as Moses, Edmund G. Robinson at Dathan, the turncoat Jew, and Yul Brynner as Ramses, the Egyptian Pharaoh.  I’ve probably seen the film 30 times or so, but I had not watched it in a long time before sitting down with my 7 year old this weekend for the full 3 1/2 hour show. Jewish or not, if you’ve never seen The Ten Commandments, do yourself a favor and rent it.

After this most recent viewing, my thoughts turned to Moses and the crazy life he lead: twenty or so years as a prince of Egypt; an Egyptian slave (after discovering his Jewish heritage); a contented shepherd; a reluctant prophet; a fearless leader; a mere mortal.  Was Moses destined for greatness?  Was he just in the right place at the right time?  Or wrong place at wrong time? Or wrong place at right time?

All of this thinking about Moses lead me, of course, to the Legend of Sam Fuld.  OK, that’s a bit over the top, but perhaps not more so than many of the Legend of Sam Fuld tweets circulating on the inter-webs. Like Moses, Fuld is Jewish. Like Moses, Fuld has had his ups and downs: Fuld’s been living with Type I diabetes since he was kid. He was a star center fielder for Stanford University’s baseball team and broke the school record for runs scored, but also hit the books, graduating with a degree in economics. He played his first major league game in 2007, for the Chicago Cubs, but then only played 97 more major league games for the Cubs between 2007 and 2010.

With the Cubs, Fuld was known for his speed and his spectacular, diving catches in the outfield, often at peril to his own body. In 65 games for the Cubs in 2009, he posted a very respectable .299/.409/.412 slashline, but didn’t make the team in 2010 and spent most of the year at AAA. In just 19 games in 2010, Fuld’s numbers fell to .143/.226/.179. Fuld was traded to the Tampa Bay Rays in the off-season.

The Rays started the year 0-6, with Fuld on the bench, Johnny Damon in left field and Manny Ramirez as the DH. Manny retired to avoid a likely 100-game suspension for a second positive PED test. Damon was struggling. Manager Joe Maddon was shuffling his lineup. And Fuld got his chance. He has not disappointed.

Fuld’s spectacular diving outfield grabs have been even more spectacular. But his hitting, so far, has been a revelation. In 54 plate appearances for the Rays, Fuld has 4 walks, 10 singles, 5 doubles, 1 triple and 1 home run. His slash is .347/.389/.551 and he has 7 stolen bases.

If Fuld sticks as the Rays’ everyday left fielder, he will have big shoes to fill. Carl Crawford patrolled left field for the Rays for nine seasons and had an average slash line of .296/.337/.444 to accompany his well-above average defense. Crawford was a big part of the Rays’ success over the last few seasons.

Bradley Woodrum at Fangraphs projects Fuld’s defense as his more significant contribution to the Rays this season. I’m not so sure. The only season in which Fuld played even somewhat regularly–2009 for the Cubs–he batted just under .300 and slugged .412.  Those aren’t the slugging numbers the Rays got out of Carl Crawford for nine years. But if Fuld can produce in 150 games for the Rays the way he produced for the Cubs in 65 games in 2009, and maintain his above-average defense, Fuld will be a long way toward helping the Rays to contend in 2011.

Is Fuld in the right place at the right time? Is he a reluctant prophet or a mere mortal?  Whether Fuld can help deliver the Rays to the post-season–the Promised Land–we’ll have to wait and see. Miracles do happen, you know.

Statistics courtesy of Fangraphs and Baseball-reference. Jonah Keri played no role in the drafting of this blog post, but I bet he wish he had.

Rain fell in the east

Double headers played by some

Sweeps, sweeps everywhere

Saturday Braves sweep

Mets tumbling, fumbling, bumbling

New York gets last one

Brewers also swept

Nats take all three weekend games

Marquis, Livan win

Sweeps in AL, too

Energized Hafner, Sizemore

Fuel Tribe over O’s

Haren meets Weaver

Give Angels four wins apiece

White Sox faltering

Rays won five in row

Each with Damon walk-off hits

Twins have new closer

Yanks, Rangers duel

Offenses jamming, bullpens

Cough up leads often

Giants nearly sweep

Panda, Posey homer show

D’backs eek out win

Cards offense white hot

Nearly four game sweep of blue

Kemp walk off homer

Cubs took one at Coors

Rox bounce back to win Sunday

Cubs bullpen implodes

Fish played Phillies tough

Marlins lead the Wild Card

Who cares, it’s April

Red Sox on right track

Beckett, Lester get it done

Pedroia can rake

Bucs two games Reds one

Both teams were homer happy

Pirates nice surprise

Astros, Pads battle

Latos starts year oh and two

Harang looks like ace

Royals tied for first

Took two from Ms, beat Felix

Stumped by Pineda

Chacin complete game

Coors Field shutouts not the norm

Can Rockies be stopped

Zach Britton tough start

Masterson masters the O’s

Tribe continues drive

Lucky for Rangers

They didn’t trade Michael Young

Two hits help beat Yanks

Pujols and Berkman

Two jacks each bolster the Cards

Garland fails Dodgers

Red Sox had the lead

Bobby Jenks implodes on mound

Jays win, Ozzie smiles

Pitchers duel again

A’s took one-oh lead to ninth

Lost eight-four in ten

Jered Weaver first

Four game winner in majors

Angels beat White Sox

Oswalt no hit Fish

‘Till LoMo’s homer in fifth

Dobbs hit fuels Fish win

Panda loves Chase Field

Three-run jack in first, Giants

Cain shutdown D’backs

Harang looks like ace

Ludwick big hit helps Padres

Astros four and ten

Blackburn pitching gem

Then Rays batters come alive

Damon key again

Pirates’ Morton dealt

Reds sluggers whiffed, Walker, Jones

Hit jacks for Bucs win

Orioles fading

Blow five run lead to Yankees

Joba’s right leg key

Twins, Rays back and forth

Neither bullpen nailed it down

Damon walk off jack

Twins loss not the worst

Mauer to DL, weak leg

Hurts the team much more

Cliff Lee needs no ‘pen

Comeback performance for Phils

Two of three from Nats

Pujols gets going

Cardinals beat the Dodgers

Kemp still hot at plate

CoCo flashed the ‘fro

Gio, Coke traded zeros

A’s bullpen failure

Tulo in four straight

Call ‘em homers, jacks, dingers

Rockies with best mark

Brewers headed up

Pirates going other way

NL Central foes

Astros beat Padres

In way Padres beat others

Last season, one nil

Josh Johnson threw strikes

Braves hitters whiffed through seven

Freeman broke it up

In DC, Doc cruised

Complete game against the Nats

Phillies scored enough

Ozzie is not pleased

Bullpen woes befall ChiSox

A’s score six to win

Ozzie’s not alone

M’s bullpen imploded too

Jays get W

AJ shut down O’s

Homers flying in the Bronx

Another Mo save

Royals pound the Twins

Liriano can’t find groove

Winless in three starts

Extras for Angels

Vernon Wells finally hits

Is Tribe cooling down

Prince Fielder is hot

Shaun Marcum looks like an ace

Brewers beat the Bucs

Tulo is on fire

CitiField can’t contain him

Rockies over Mets

Anyone watching

Cubs and Astros slug it out

Big Z jacks one too

Giants big and small

Kung Fu Panda, Fontenot

Homer for the win

More bullpen problems

Masset blows one more for Reds

O-Dog wins for Pads

Cards offense awakes

Berkman bonkers in desert

Pujols still quiet

As you may know if you’ve read this, I practiced law for nearly 20 years before taking a break and becoming a baseball blogger. I’ve tweeted some about the Barry Bonds trial, but have intentionally avoided blogging about the Bonds trial because my focus now is baseball, not the law. I also know and worked with one of Bonds’ main lawyers–Cris Arguedas–who deserves her fantastic reputation and then some.

But when I read the “legal analysis” by ESPN’s Lester Munson on the jury’s resolution–or better yet, non-resolution–of the charges against Bonds, I had no choice but to pen a response. Munson’s so called “legal analysis” is so full of factual, legal and constitutional errors that it’s hard to believe any reputable news organization would publish it. Shame on ESPN for doing just that.

Munson’s first misstep:

The unanimous verdict that Bonds was guilty of obstruction of justice is a major triumph for federal agent Jeff Novitzky and prosecutors Jeff Nedrow and Matthew Parrella.

Really? A major triumph? Novitzky testified at the trial that he spent countless nights rummaging through BALCO’s garbage looking for evidence of steroids production, distribution and use. He also oversaw the raids on several drug labs which had performed the “anonymous” tests on all Major League Baseball players before steroids were banned by the league. Novitzky flexed his federal investigatory muscle so far and for so long just so the government could eventually prove that Bonds answered questions evasively? As Jayson Stark (also of ESPN) wrote after the verdict was read: “So let’s get this straight. The only thing we’ve learned about Barry Bonds is that he was evasive? The government could have assembled a panel of distinguished baseball writers to convict him on that charge like 15 years ago.” It’s not a major triumph for Novitzy and the prosecutors. It’s an embarrassment.

Munson then turns centuries of criminal law on its head:

The defense team was not victorious on even one of the four counts of the indictment. In a case that many observers expected Bonds to win, he and his lawyers went 0-for-4. There were jurors who wanted to convict Bonds on all four counts, but the jurors were unanimous only on the obstruction of justice count.

A bedrock principle of criminal law is that the prosecution bears the burden of proving beyond a reasonable doubt that the defendant committed the crime with which he was charged. And in federal court, the jury must unanimously agree that the defendant is guilty; if not, the government has not met its burden and the defendant cannot be convicted. The defendant has no obligation whatsoever to prove anything. All the defense has to do is persuade just one juror that the defendant did not commit the crime. On three of the four counts, the defense did just that. By my count, the defense went 3-for-4, a much better day than the government had. They only went 1-for-4.

Munson also attacks the defense team for doing their job and doing it well:

A close look at the history of the Bonds prosecution shows that the enormous efforts by the Bonds legal team added years to the process. The lawyers filed hundreds of pages of papers known as “motions in limine.” These motions demanded that Judge Illston issue her rulings on trial evidence in advance of the trial. The Bonds lawyers wanted evidence suppressed even before it was presented.

In an ordinary case, there may be one or two motions in limine. The Bonds lawyers filed at least 12, each of them meticulously briefed and argued, and each of them causing trial delays.

As Munson well knows–but failed to tell you–is that courts have strict rules about what kinds of information and documents can be admitted into evidence and seen, read or heard by the jury. These rules have been in effect for decades and are used in every state and federal trial in the country. The purpose of these rules is to ensure that the information and documents seen, read or heard by the jury are reliable–meaning that there is a factual basis for the evidence and that the evidence is truthful and credible. The Bonds defense team did not seek to “suppress” evidence. They simply asked Judge Illston to decide before the trial started that certain information, documents and testimony were not reliable, and should therefore be excluded from the trial. On many of these defense requests, Judge Illston–following these basic and long-standing rules–agreed and excluded several pieces of unreliable evidence.

Further, the fact that the defense filed twelve of these motions in limine was entirely within the norm for a federal criminal case. Indeed, as Munson suggests, in an ordinary case, the defense may only file one or two such motions. But federal criminal cases are not ordinary cases and this one certainly was not.

Finally, in his closing, Munson eviscerates the Fifth Amendment to the United States Constitution:

Any citizen who is caught up in a federal investigation is obligated to tell the truth when federal agents show up to ask questions. It is a fundamental duty of citizenship, and it is the foundation of any federal investigation.

Wrong. When federal agents “show up” to ask questions of citizens about a federal investigation, the agents have a constitutional duty to tell these citizens if they are suspected of committing a crime, and if so, to tell these citizens that they have the right to remain silent and to be advised by a lawyer. It’s called the Fifth Amendment right against self-incrimination. Granted, by the time Bonds testified to the grand jury, the government had given Bonds immunity, meaning that he would not be prosecuted for buying or using steroids if he testified truthfully to the grand jury. The government did not prove that Bonds testified untruthfully to the grand jury. The jurors found only that Bonds’ response to one question was evasive–not that it was false or untrue. And hard questions remain for Judge Illston and the Court of Appeals as to whether that Bonds’ “evasive” response was sufficient for a conviction for obstruction of justice.

I don’t know Munson nor do I know anything about his law practice. But I suggest that if you are suspected of committing a crime, you should hire an attorney who understands criminal, evidentiary and constitutional law better than Lester Munson apparently does.

The St. Louis Cardinals are struggling.  The Cards are 4-7 through the first eleven games.  They didn’t score more than three runs in any game in their opening homestand.  Matt Holliday had an emergency appendectomy the day after Opening Day.  And Albert Pujols is batting .200, a season high.

But it’s not just the offense that’s struggling.  Starting pitcher and expected ace Chris Carpenter is 0-2 with a 5.82 ERA.  With Adam Wainright out for the year after Tommy John surgery, the Cardinals can ill afford a below-average season from Carpenter.

What’s going on?  Through 17 innings pitched so far in 2011 (small sample size alert!), Carpenter’s WHIP is 1.35, which is the highest it’s been since 2002, save for the six innings Carpenter pitched in 2007 before his own Tommy John surgery.  And once those hitters get on, Carpenter is allowing them to score at a much higher rate than in the past.  Carpenter’s LOB% (Left on Base Percentage) so far in 2011 is a career low 62.5%.  The last time Carpenter’s LOB% was below 72% was the 2000 season (again, except for those six innings in 2007).

One explanation for Carpenter’s sub-par performance so far is control–or lack thereof.  In 2009 and 2010, Carpenter threw about 65% of his pitches for strikes (and, obviously, 35% for balls).  This season, his strikes are down to 59% of his total pitches.  The extra balls are likely related to why Carpenter’s pitches/innings pitched has gone up: in 2009, he threw 13.9 pitches/inning; in 2010, 15 pitches/inning, and this season, it’s up to 16.9 pitches/inning.

So far in 2010, Carpenter is throwing more pitches per inning, more of those pitches are balls as compared to his 2009 and 2010 seasons, and he’s allowing more of those hitters to score once they reach base.  Not very ace like.

All statistics courtesy of Fangraphs.

Josh Hamilton slid

Tagging from third on sac fly

Just like coach advised

Result not funny

Hamilton breaks humerus

Blames Coach Anderson

Now Hamilton out

Can Michael Young play outfield

Rangers hold their breath

Strange Werth “homecoming”

Phillies fans invade Nats park

Regret losing Werth

Alexi walkoff

ChiSox best A’s in extras

The Hawk screams “Mercy”

Two solo homers

Bourjous, Trumbo, who you ask

Haren one hits Tribe

Padres bullpen leaks

Reds defense sparkles, six runs

By Reds in extras

Cowboy, Idiot

Names for Damon don’t matter

He hits at Fenway

Carpenter no ace

Dbacks tag him with eight earned

Upton massive jack

Legend of Sam Fuld

Grows beyond the baseball field

Takes over twitter

Fuld is such a mensch

Didn’t stop at first when a

Single meant cycle

Mariners comeback

First win at home all season

No one there to see

Kershaw dominates

Giants feeble in the field

Kemp off to hot start

Ozzie blames the ‘pen

Did ‘pen make Pierre drop ball

Suzuki homered

Latos erratic

Reds wear him down in first start

Heisey jack wins it

Cleveland Indians

How are they getting it done

Eight wins in a row

Why should Feliz start

Ogando mowed down the Birds

Rangers score enough

Tulo and CarGo

With the bat and with the glove

Rockies on their backs

Editor’s Note: As with my prior division previews, this sixth and final preview of the National League East will run concurrently here and at SportsPie.com: A Gathering Place for Women to Talk Sports.

As I discussed in the first Player to Watch post (American League West), my “player to watch” is the one player key to his team’s success. As this player goes, so goes his team. Or something like that. Bookmark this post and the other division preview posts so you can check back in October to see if I know anything about baseball.

The only division left is the National League East.  Let’s do it.

Atlanta Braves

Martin Prado was an All-Star second baseman for the Atlanta Braves in 2010 and finished 9th in MVP voting.  So the Braves did what any rational team would do: they traded for second baseman Dan Uggla and moved Prado to left field.  The Braves then signed Uggla to a five-year contract extension worth upwards of $62 million. The pressure is squarely on Uggla to perform in 2011.  That makes Dan Uggla my player to watch for the Atlanta Braves.

Uggla played five seasons with the Florida Marlins before being traded to the Braves.  With the Fish, Uggla hit 25+ HRs each season and had an average slugging percentage just under .500 (.488).  According to the Elias Sports Bureau, Uggla is the first player in MLB history whose primary position is second base and who hit 20+ HRs in each of his first five seasons.

But Uggla suffered from spotty defense. In the 2008 All-Star Game, he committed 3 errors at second base, an All-Star Game record.  Earlier this year, Fangraphs listed Uggla among the MLB sluggers whose overall value, as measured by Wins Above Replacement, is significantly and negatively affected by poor defense.

The Braves have very good pitching this year, they have Jason Heyward and they have rookie phenom Freddie Freeman. But to compete with the Phillies in the NL East, the Braves need Uggla to ramp it up on both offense and defense. As Dan Uggla goes in 2011, so go the Atlanta Braves.

Florida Marlins

Mike Stanton was a mid-season call-up for the Florida Marlins in 2010 and he did not disappoint when he got to the show. At only 20 years of age, Stanton showed extraordinary power, belting 22 HRs in only 100 games. Expectations are high for Stanton in 2011.

With the loss of Dan Uggla to the Braves, the Marlins are looking to Stanton to replace Uggla’s home runs and overall power production. Stanton is part of a core of young, athletic sluggers for the Marlins, that also includes Chris Coughlan (2009 NL Rookie of the Year) and Logan Morrison. The Marlins will need the offense in high gear because other than Josh Johnson, their starting pitching is mediocre at best.

Stanton started the 2011 season recovering from a quadracep injury and has no home runs to date. The Marlins are hoping for Stanton to get going very soon. As Mike Stanton goes in 2011, so go the Florida Marlins.

New York Mets

Last month, I wrote a post analyzing whether and how New York Mets third baseman David Wright was adjusting to playing in CitiField. I concluded that 2009 was an aberation for Wright when he played better on the road than at home, the first season the Mets played at CitiField. Wright adjusted in 2010 and put up better offensive stats in games played at CitiField than on the road. The Mets are counting on Wright to play very well at home this year, which makes Wright my player to watch in 2011.

Off the field, the Mets are in disarray, owing to the Mets owners’ involvement with disgraced Ponzi-schemer Bernie Madoff. If the Mets fall out of the NL East early, the cash problems may force the Mets to trade the players with expiring contracts: Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran and Francisco Rodriguez. Either way, the pressure’s on David Wright to either keep the Mets in the race or to continue to attract fan interest if the Mets trade their other “stars” away.

Philadelphia Phillies

Jimmy Rollins has played his entire big league career with the Philadelphia Phillies. In 2007, Rollins was voted the Most Value Player in the National League after he posted a slash line of .296/.344/.531 with 30 HRs (career high) and 41 stolen bases. Fangraphs calculated Rollins’ wRAA in 2007 at 31, also a career high. Throughout his career, Rollins has been a very steady hand at shortstop, as reflected by Fangraphs’s UZR numbers for Rollins and by his three Gold Glove Awards in 2007, 2008 and 2009.

Offensively, Rollins appears to be experiencing a slow, but steady decline. He battled leg injuries for most of 2010, which significantly cut his playing time and slowed his running game. With Phillies second baseman Chase Utley out indefinitely this season with a knee injury, Rollins has replaced Utley in the Phillies’ batting order, hitting third, ahead of slugger Ryan Howard. So far so good for Rollins in 2011 (batting .324 with 3 stolen bases through 9 games). The longer Utley is out, the longer the Phillies will need Rollins to perform in the No. 3 spot, to set things up for RBI king Howard. That’s why Rollins is my player to watch in 2011. As Jimmy Rollins goes in 2011, so go the Phillies.

Washington Nationals

Most observers see the Washington Nationals several years away from making any noise in the National League East but set up to do just that with hard-throwing starting pitcher Stephen Strasburg (out this year with Tommy John surgery) and the very young hitting star Bryce Harper. But the Nationals aren’t waiting for Strasburg and Harper to make noise. They made a big splash in the off-season by signing OF Jayson Werth for $126 million. For that kind of money, Jayson Werth has to be the player to watch on the Washington Nationals in 2011.

Werth joined the Nationals after four very successful years with the Phillies. In every year from 2007-2010, Werth increased his wRAA for the Phillies, going from 13.7 in 2007 to 39.9 in 2010. Only Adam Dunn and Ryan Zimmerman posted wRAAs higher than 30 for the Nationals last season. Dunn is gone, having signed with the White Sox, and Zimmerman has made an early trip to the DL. For the Nationals to make any noise on the field in 2011, Jayson Werth must lead the way. As Jayson Werth goes in 2011, so go the Nationals.

Spotlight on Red Sox

Will they pull it together

Beckett did last night

Dustin Pedroia

All five-nine of him, sparking

His Red Sox teammates

Jeter’s swing in flux

New one, old one, which to use

Sixteen mil a year

Out of the spotlight

Indians, Royals, Rockies

All off to great starts

Hamels pitched better

Or did the Braves hit poorly

Phils won three zero

Giants hungover

Banners, rings, Rookie of Year

Baseball focus now

Cubs, Brewers slugfest

Prince Fielder gets on a roll

Last year of contract

What’s wrong with Pujols

Worst career start for Albert

Shoulda signed contract

A’s win a series

Matsui, Willingham jacks

Support great pitching

Reds blew early lead

Mets blew great start by Chris Young

Happ blew away Fish

After their first wins

Red Sox, Rays back to losing

Pitching off again

At least Rays have Fuld

Laying out for super grab

Saving Rays three runs

Phillies bats are lively

Especially off the bench

Pinch hit Ruiz slam

Dodgers with two wins

Closing out Friday night’s game

And Saturday’s too

Giants got their rings

Extra pomp and circumstance

Tejada walk off

Fourteen innings played

Blue Jays, Angels, weird plays too

Haren wins from ‘pen

Orioles, Rangers split

Britton looked spectacular

So did Rangers bats

Royals, Indians

Quietly winning their games

Will it continue