Happy @ Investing ;)

Sell HAIO again?

2010-09-01T00:11:00.000-07:00

Today HAIO price further dropped since my last blog on it. I called up my broker, again, nothing much information i could get. I decided to sell half of my HAIO portfolio as technical indicator showed a lot of sell activity. I am still believe it's fundamental is quite solid. Should not be any accounting manipulation. And so far, the reason i sold it is for 2 reasons:
1. prepare buy back at lower price
2. raise fund for my right issue ;)

Sell HAIO?

2010-08-06T00:44:00.000-07:00

Today HAIO stock price dropped significantly again. I bought in at RM3.5 2 days ago and today it was at ~RM3.3 translate to 6% lost for me. And my entire HAIO portfolio gain drop significantly as well. It wrote off about 55% of my gain. Should i still hold this position? is my Buy Hold strategy broken? One of my broker told me that investor were speculating some accounting fraud in HAIO after share split. I think if this true, it is very serious. Any way to detect accounting fraud? I think with my current CFA knowledge, i am still not able to detect this... share with me if you know anything about this.

CapitalMalls - IPO

2010-07-19T06:29:00.000-07:00

CapitaMalls Malaysia Trust (CMMT) is seeking to list on the Main Market of Bursa Malaysia on 16 July
2010, with a fund size of 1,350,000,000 units, comprising:

Issuance of 563,478,000 units as part of the consideration to acquire the properties from CapitaMalls Asia Limited
IPO for the offer for sale of 786,522,000 new units, comprising the following:

Conditional offer for sale of 719,022,000 new units to Malaysian and foreign institutional and selected investors
Conditional offer for sale of 45,500,000 new units to eligible directors of the manager of CMMT and eligible employees of CapitaLand Retail Malaysia SB
Public issue of 22,000,000 new units to the Malaysian public

Below are some of the data from my broker:

Stretch your Ringgit – investment & wealth management 101

2010-07-05T02:46:00.000-07:00

Recently, i attended Yap Ming Hui talk on "Stretch your ringgit - investment & wealth management 101". He is one of Malaysia's foremost authorities on financial freedom. He is the author of five best-selling books. His latest book is Roadmap to Financial Freedom : The Ultimate Guide to Achieve Financial Freedom:

http://www.mphonline.com/books/nsearch.aspx?do=detail&pcode=9789834172442

Some of my friend able to capture few key point during his talk in Unit trust. And i would like to share with everyone who invested in Unit trust:

1) Time horizon provision

- make sure have holding power

Share Property Bond Fix deposit

Potential return H H M L

Volatility H L M L

Liquidity M L M H

The right money in the right bucket

Low risk assets – saving, current acc, fixed deposits(keep ~6months money) à liquidity (low risk low return)

Moderate risk assets – balanced investment, diversified, selected property à retirement, children’s education, wealth enhancement (consistent above average returns, limit downside risks)

High risk assets – direct stock, IPOs, single country, theme funds, lottery à high returns/thrill (high risk high return)

2) Target ROI return – align portfolio with target

Moderate risk investor targeting for 8-10% annual ROI

3) Asset allocation (diversify) avoid concentrated risk and reduce volatility

4) Best of breed funds (invest in good funds, avoid lousy funds) –choose quality investment

5) ROI optimization – optimize portfolio ROI

6) regular rebalancing – help you to buy low sell high

7) dollar cost averaging (DCA) – help you to buy more at low price

8) cost effective and efficient platform - minimize hassle and cost

one more reminder from Mr Yap: if you are not practicing 4 or 5 out of the 8 guideline, or you do not plan to practice more guideline, please do not invest in Unit trust and find other product. For sure you will lose $$.

EPF's top 30 equity investment

2010-06-10T06:55:00.000-07:00

I got this from my broker and found it is very useful. Below are the EPF's top 30 equity investment as 31st March 2010.

No.	Share	% Holdings
1.	Malaysian Building Society Bhd	67.33%
2.	RHB Capital Bhd	56.14%
3.	Malaysian Resources Corp Bhd	41.54%
4.	Media Prima Bhd	24.10%
5.	WCT Bhd	22.89%
6.	IJM Corporation Bhd	19.85%
7.	Cycle & Carriage Bintang Bhd	19.09%
8.	Star Publication (M) Bhd	17.37%
9.	Tenaga Nasional Bhd	16.83%
10.	Digi.Com Bhd	16.79%
11.	Axiata Group Bhd	16.58%
12.	Shell Refining Co. Bhd	16.31%
13.	UMW Holdings Bhd	16.10%
14.	Public Bank Bhd	16.00%
15.	Petronas Gas Bhd	15.65%
16.	Proton Holdings Bhd	15.49%
17.	CIMB Group Holding Bhd	15.41%
18.	Dialog Group Bhd	15.30%
19.	Alliance Financial Group Bhd	15.27%
20.	Genting Plantation Bhd	15.14%
21.	Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd	14.86%
22.	SP Setia Bhd	14.71%
23.	Sime Darby Bhd	14.61%
24.	United Plantations Bhd	14.36%
25.	Malaysian Airlines Systems Bhd	13.66%
26.	Puncak Niaga Holdings Bhd	13.53%
27.	AMMB Holdings Bhd	13.33%
28.	Axis Reit Managers Bhd	13.23%
29.	Sunrise Bhd	13.21%
30.	IOI Corporation Bhd	13.15%

2010/05/18 News Update

2010-05-17T20:01:00.000-07:00

Euro sinks to four year low as Europe debt crisis cause investors to pull more money from stocks, preferring gold and Asian bonds instead.

US closed +5.67 to 10,625.83 on 17/5/2010

Crude oil +0.48 to USD70.56 per barrel

US bond sales revive as Europe contagion concern recades: credit markets/ Bloomberg

Japanese stocks climb as Yen weakens; inpex falls on lower crude oil price/ Bloomberg

Samsung may become 'uncatchable' with $15.6bil capital spending plan/ Bloomberg

Asia should consider using capital controls to limit inflows, ADB advises/ Bloomberg

Japanese demand for services slipped 3% in March, second month of decline/ Bloomberg

US stocks gain as Euro rebounds from four year low; oil retreats/ Bloomberg

MISC buys stake in VTTI for US$735m/ the star

- move in line with shipping firms's strategy to grow tank terminal business

Credit Suisse says HLB's offer price for EON Cap too low

Alliance identifies Sng as its new CEO

Compensation noost for MAS

- Its Q1 net profit of RM310m due to delay in A380 delivery

MAHB net profit dragged down by FRS139

Shanghai, Shenzen lead fall in Asian markets

- investors resumed selling on risky bets that included emerging market equities and commodities amid growing fears that the sovereign debt crisis in Europe would derail global economic growth

Forex swings to hit exporters

- Firms are more exposed to fluctuations in US dollar than to Euro or Pound

- the Euro and Pound are expected to remain weak in the near term

No impact from Thai turmoil

- but Malaysian companies will be affected if the situation worsens, says FMM

Analysts positive on F&N glass divestment plan

Adamus takeover bid for M3nergy at RM1.85 per share

April vehicle sales up

- buyers rushed to take delivery before interest rates hike

Asia urged to be more assertive in global economy

Reject unfair offer by Lonbisco, TPC shareholders advised

Talks still on for sale of RBS assets

- No target date for proposed disposal to materialise, announcement in due course

Xinquan Q3 net profit up 46%

made a net profit of RM32.7mil

Salcon clinches RM84.21mil project

- from Pengurusan Aset Air Bhd for alternative water supply to the KL International Airport

Prudential launches US$21bil cash call

- move to woo shareholders' backing for its AIA acquisition

Big bargains from Europe/ the star

- the Euro's fall made eurozone assets attractive and boosted exports

7 Mistakes to Avoid???

2010-05-10T07:04:00.000-07:00

Some good sharing on what i read. In a lot of ways investing is like badminton match in our recent Thomas Cup 2010. In badminton, having a killer serve or smash technique will win you a lot of points. But it does not mean you are the winner at the end of the day. It's often the player with the least mistakes who wins ;)

Below are some of the temptations:
1. Swinging for the fences - buy great company with economy moats. Do not load portfolio with risky and swinging for the fences on every pitch.
2. Believing that it's different this time - example year 2000 on semiconductor stocks.
3. Falling in love with products
4. Panicking when the market is down
5. Trying to time the market
6. Ignoring valuation
7. Relying on earning for the whole story

Know When to sell?

2010-05-10T06:51:00.000-07:00

One of the investor asked this "what is your exit strategy?" I told him i got very good answer in one of the book i am reading. I think these are very true and i would like to share with the readers.

Ideally, we'd all hold our investments forever, but the reality is that few companies are worth holding for decades. The author point out when you shouldn't sell ;)

1. The Stock has dropped.
2. The stock has skyrocketed
3. Did you make a mistake?
4. Have the fundamentals deteriorated?
5. Has the stock risen too far above intrinsic value?
6. Is there something better you can do with the money?
7. Do you have too much money in one stock?

2010/05/07 News Update

2010-05-07T00:54:00.000-07:00

US closed -347.80 to 10,502.32 on 6/5/2010
Crude oil -USD2.86 to USD77.11 per barrel

US stocks plung before parring losses/ Bloomberg
- US stocks tumbled the most in a year on concern Europe's debt crisis will halt the global recovery. The selloff briefly erased more than $1trillion in market value as the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell almost 1,000 points, a 9.2% plunge that was its biggest intraday percentage loss since 1987, before paring the drop

Electronic Trading to blame for Stock Market plunge, NYSE's Leibowitz says

Nasdaq to cansel trades of stocks moving more than 60% in market plunge

China's accelerating producer prices may show yuan peg stoking inflation

Europe equity fund outflows jump to $2bil in week on Greece concerns

Swire properties pulls $2.7bil Hong Kong offers as IPO slump deepens

Euro set to rally above $1.30 after 'excessive' slide: Technical analysis

Crude oil may slide to $60 after biggest three day decline in 15 months

Citigroup finds 'no evidence' bank was invloved in Erroneous stock traders

Greek violence threatens to scare away tourists needed for saving economy

US Stocks plunge most in year as 'panic selling' grips market

Maxis testing 4G technology./ The Star
-Celco also conducting trials for IPTV as part of growth strategy.

Experts confident of Asia's long term fundamentals./ The Star
-Market observers are confident that the long term fundamentals in Asia outweigh any temporary sell-down due to the Greek debt crisis.

Intel to close R&D unit in Kulim Hi-tech Park./ The Star
-According to the source, Intel would gradually close the unit over the next 12mths.
-The workdone at the KHTP facility would be transferred back to Arizona.

FTA talks with EU enter second round./ The Star
-Envoy says a successful agreement will benefit bilateral trade.

TM to maintain dividend at last year's level./ The Star
-the company aims to stick to its dividend payout policy of a minimum RM700mil or up to 90% of normalised profit after tax.

Higher LNG profit lifts MISC earnings./ The Star
-MISC posted a 36.5% jump in its net profit to RM196.4mil and recommeded a final dividend of 20sen per share tax exempt.

Economist: Q1 GDP seen at over 9%./ The Star

Maxbiz escapes suspension./ The Star

TH Plantations to grow landbank to 50,000 in 2year./ The Star

Stock market heading for better times./ The Star
-Petronas listing in H2 will spill over into the oil and gas play.

Ijm unit bags RM247mil Sarawak road contracts/ The Star
-2 other firm also win jobs for the Murun dam access road.

M-sport plans 1 for 4 rights issue./ The Star

Sarawak Cable plans two new products./ The Star

Bank Islam eyes stake in PT Bank Muamalat./ The Star
-Midest investors also interested in Indonesia's biggest islamic bank.

The Sabah factor in Petra Energy's plans./ The Star

BiotechCorp to focus on commercialising local research./ The Star

Bank Negara warns of illegal currency trading scheme? Malaysia Illegal Forex Trading?

2010-01-03T21:59:00.000-08:00

I got this article from one of the investor. i think it is good to share this information with the reader ;)

Bank Negara Malaysia has advised the public to not participate in any illegal investment or training programme on foreign currency trading offered by individuals or companies.

In a statement today, the central bank said members of the public are usually enticed to attend such investment or training programmes with promises of quick and good returns.

It said the modus operandi of such programmes has been to offer free training, seminars or workshops to lure investors, prior to inviting them to set-up an online foreign currency trading account with a principal company.

The company has purportedly a valid licence to trade in foreign currency overseas.

It also includes providing convenient access to the principal company's website and facilitates online foreign currency trading by investors as well as the recruitment of fresh graduates as marketing executives.

The graduates are also encouraged to get their family and friends to trade in foreign currency.

Such programmes also require investors to deposit an amount of money into a bank account to begin the trading in foreign currency and subsequently, requesting for a top up on their initial investment (margin call) to avoid losing the capital.

Under the Exchange Control Act 1953 (ECA), it is an offence for a person in Malaysia to buy or sell foreign currency or engage in any act which involves, is in association with, or is preparatory to, the buying or selling of foreign currency with any person, other than an authorised dealer.

It is also an offence for a person to aid or abet another to buy or sell foreign currency with anyone, unless the individual is an authorised dealer.

The list of authorised dealers and financial institutions permitted by the Controller of Foreign Exchange to buy or sell foreign currency can be obtained from Bank Negara's website (http://www.bnm.gov.my/fxadmin).

Source from:
http://www.malaysiakini.com/news/121062

FBM KLCI closes year up 45% year 2009. Malaysia Market Outlook for 2010?

2010-01-01T23:32:00.000-08:00

ilearn2invest wishes everyone: Happy New Year! 2009 is now gone. 2010 has just begun. Let's hope the new year is a brighter year with plenty of opportunities and may the new year filled with peace, prosperity and happiness for all.

2009 Review:
Shares on Bursa Malaysia traded mixed on Thursday, Dec 31, the last day of trading for the year, bucking the uptrend of most regional bourses. There were few leads for investors ahead of the long weekend, especially with some bourses already closed for the year and some on shortened trading hours. Overnight, Wall Street's major indices closed flat on light volume despite positive economic data on the manufacturing sector. The Chicago purchasing manager's index rose to 60 in December from 56.1 in November, the highest since January 2006 and above expectations. Except at the opening and closing minutes, the FBM KLCI was in negative territory almost the entire day. A late surge of buying interest lifted the benchmark index up 1.7 points at 1,272.8. Market breadth was broadly mixed throughout the day, but turned positive at the close with advancing stocks beating declining ones by a three-to-two ratio. Volume rose from 586 million to 602 million shares. Lower liners made up most of the actively traded stocks, such as Linear, IRCB, SAAG, Ho Hup and KNM. Major gainers include Manulife, Rubberex and its warrants, DiGi, KPJ and Public Bank-foreign. Losers include Hai-O, MAS and MISC. Thursday's performance caps a very good year for the local stock market, and indeed global equity bourses for 2009. The year started off on a bad note as the financial crisis was in full storm following the collapse of Lehman Brothers in Sept 2008, with declines extending into March before rebounding strongly. For the year, the FBM KLCI gained a total of 396 points or 45.2% after rising from 876.8 at the start of the year and ending at 1,272.8. At its lowest point, the index fell to 838 in March. While the gains were slightly less than most regional bourses, it should be noted that the local stock market and domestic economy was also relatively more resilient during the crisis. As a comparison, key market indices in China, India, Taiwan and Indonesia surged 78% to 87% for the year. Hong Kong was up 52%, South Korea rose 50% and Singapore was up 64%, but Japan lagged the region with only a 19% gain.

Overview - Malaysia Sector Outlooks for 2010

Malaysia Bank Sector Outlook for 2010 - Overweight

Malaysia Energy Sector Outlook for 2010 - Marketweight

Malaysia Construction Sector Outlook for 2010 - Overweight

Malaysia Transportation Sector Outlook for 2010 - Underweight

Malaysia Information Technology Sector Outlook for 2010 - Underweight

Malaysia Telecom Sector Outlook for 2010 - Underweight

Malaysia Utilities Sector Outlook for 2010 - Marketweight

HAIO surges after earning report? Fundamental, technical or hybrid analysis for HAIO? RHB, Affin or OSK for HAIO? Buy Hold for HAIO?

2009-12-31T21:57:00.000-08:00

Shares of HAI-O ENTERPRISE BHD surged in early trade on Wednesday, Dec 23 after it reported a strong set of earnings. It was up 42 sen to RM7.92 at 9.15am. There were 106,500 shares traded. However, the 30-stock FBM KLCI fell 1.84 points to 1,258.58. There were 28.73 million shares done valued at RM32.25 million. Hai-O reported net profit of RM20.18 million in its second quarter ended Oct 31, a jump of 85% from RM10.89 million a year ago, as more consumers bought its health and wellness products. The company said revenue rose 51% to RM132.37 million from RM87.29 million. Earnings per share were 24.23 sen compared with 13.38 sen. It declared dividend of 10 sen per share. It also proposed a bonus issue of up to 16.89 million new RM1 shares on the basis of one bonus share for every five existing shares held. It also proposed a share split involving the subdivision of each Hai-O share into two 50 sen shares.

Let me share some analysis report done by different Investment Bank.
RHB Research Institude Sdn Bhd.
Date: 12/23/2009
Share Price: RM7.5
Fair Value: RM9.9

Affin Investment Bank.
Date: 12/23/2009
Share Price: RM7.5
Target Price: RM11.06

OSK
Date: 12/23/2009
Share Price: RM7.5
Target Price: RM8.95

Technical Analysis:

Base on the report from 3 different expert, valuation result showed 3 different target price with RM8.95, RM9.9 and RM11.06. HAIO was traded between RM8.37 - RM8.83 on 12/31/2009. From the technical, it showed very bullish for HAIO. But is it too late to enter the market? Dear investor, are you able to make some wise choice?

Citigroup buy or not buy? Technical Analysis on Citigroup? (PART 2)

2009-12-31T17:29:00.000-08:00

I posted an article about some technical analysis I applied on Citigroup stock a few weeks back (http://ilearn2invest.blogspot.com/2009/12/citigroup-buy-or-not-buy-technical.html). Citigroup share price dropped significantly due to the TARP repayment announcement. Below was the summary i put in one of my comment before.

Citigroup Inc. announced the pricing of 5.4 billion common shares and 35 million tangible equity units as part of agreement with the U.S. government and its regulators to repay U.S. taxpayers for $20 billion government holds in TARP trust preferred securities and to terminate loss-sharing agreement with the government. The common stock priced at $3.15 per share, generating net proceeds of approximately $17 billion. Tangible equity units priced at $100 each, generating net proceeds of approximately $3.5 billion (about $2.8 billion counted as equity.) Upon completion of the offerings and the repayment of the $20 billion of the TARP trust preferred securities and the termination of the loss-sharing agreement, Citi will no longer be deemed to be recipient of exceptional financial assistance under TARP. The U.S. Treasury (UST) announced it would extend its lock-up period on the sale of its 7.7 billion share common equity stake to 90 days from 45 days after the completion of this offering. The tangible equity units are comprised of prepaid stock purchase contract and junior subordinated amortizing note. Each stock purchase contract has settlement date of December 15, 2012 and will settle for between 25.3968 and 31.7460 shares of Citi common stock, The amortizing notes will pay holders equal quarterly installments of $1.875 per amortizing note, which in the aggregate will be equivalent to 7.50% cash payment per year with respect to each $100 stated amount of tangible equity units.

From the last technical analysis on Citigroup, the result showed it was trending down (12/14/2009) and no up trend signals. The summary was to keep waiting for a few more days. Let us review on the stock price base on technical analysis today (12/31/2009).

Citigroup - 3 months

There was some up trend in the signal on 12/31/2009. Current support level was ~USD3.2; resistance was ~USD3.44 for the past 2 weeks. Could it be any consolidation before a breakout trend? Dear investor, are you in or out?

Citigroup buy or not buy? Technical Analysis on Citigroup?

2009-12-14T22:42:00.000-08:00

In one of my regular coffee session, one of the investor brought this topic up. He told me he plan to buy some of the banking stock. He is looking at BAC, WFC and C.

"BAC and C are quite exciting. But if you are a trader, C give you wider price range swing and probably could use some technical to help you up.", I told him.

"That is what I think so.", he said.

The investor sent me below article this morning. One of the investor (Cramer) talk about 6 reasons to buy citigroup (from source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/34419773/):

Wells Fargo, as a result of buying Wachovia, has too much mortgage exposure. More mortgages mean more potential foreclosures, and that will hurt earnings. Citigroup shouldn't have that problem.
Citigroup does more business overseas, where its reputation is much more intact. Cramer said the international footprint would make Citi a great call on worldwide trade expansion.
The government's 34% stake, totaling 6 billion shares, in Citigroup is not an issue, especially when the average daily trading volume is in the hundreds of millions of shares. Whether Washington slowly sells its position or holds on for a higher price, Cramer called it a non-issue.
Citi has already dropped significantly ahead of the offering, Cramer said, much more than it deserves. That gives investors a great, great entry point.
The share price is just $3.70, a near lottery-ticket price with somewhat similar potential. While the dollar amount doesn't matter, Cramer does bless this as a single-digit speculation play, the kind that investors seem to love so much.
Cramer thinks Citigroup could triple in price over the next three years. As the company cleans up his balance sheet, the resultant profits will restore its book value. And banks trade as a function of book value. So the refrain going forward is, "$12 by the end of 2012."

I still remember not long time ago, the CEO requested approval from investor to increase common stock. Most of the investor do not like it, it might further dilute the stock. Below are the summaries of the change in one of the CEO letter (http://www.citigroup.com/citi/fin/data/ceoletter090910.pdf):

Increased the number of authorized shares of common stock from 15 billion to 60 billion;
Eliminated the voting rights of the holders of common stock on any amendment(s) to the restated certificate that relates solely to the terms of any series of preferred stock so long as such series of preferred stock is entitled to vote on the amendment(s); and
authorized (but do not require) the Board of Directors to effect a reverse stock split, at any time prior to June 30, 2010, at one of seven reverse split ratios as determined by the Board of Directors.

Frankly speaking, I do know how to use fundamental approach to value Citigroup. Please let me know if you know how to do that ;) But to make our life more exciting, below is some of the technical analysis I used for Citigroup. From the analysis graph (3months or 6 months data), it showed that Citigroup is trending down on 12/14/2009. There is no up trend signal yet. Base on technical, we probably need to wait couple days more for up trend signal.

Citigroup - 3 months

Citigroup - 6 months

701Panduan is Malaysia Online Directory

2009-12-13T01:24:00.000-08:00

701Panduan is Malaysia Online Directory

Logo 1

Logo 2

Logo 3

Opportunities in Foreign Markets by OSK (CDL, Cambridge REIT, SMRT, Genting)

2009-12-07T05:04:00.000-08:00

I went down Singapore last week and met up with a few old friends. As expected, they are very Singaporean after 10 years working there. "boh lah, where got impact... i don feel recession here...shopping mall, lang muar muar", "Singaporean buying power sih beh gao lat...." i missed those lines, sound very very familiar and warm ;) But one fact, most of the people talked about investment nowsday. It is either investment in equity or some on going "hu ha" project at Singapore like Genting, LVS and some other shopping mall. "There is one saying in Singapore, only poor like us invest in stock, all rich people invest in property"... Well, no matter what type of investment, i think let me probably share some of the information i got during the OSK seminar right before i went down to SG.

The presenter, Jonathan Ng, highlighted supply over demand issue for REIT in Office sector. But there is a new dawn for retail sector.

Singapore Outlook:

Weighting on Singapore REITs: NEUTRAL
Sector Focus: office, industrial, retail, hospitality
Top picks: CDL Hospitality Trust and Cambridge Industrial Trust

Weighting on Land Transport: OVERWEIGHT
Top picks: SMRT

CDL:

Only hotel REIT listed on SGX – Owns 5 4-star hotels/1 retail mall in Singapore, and 1 hotel in New Zealand.
Pays at least 90% of earning as dividends – offers investor 7% yield based on FY10 earnings estimates
Best proxy to a structural revival in Singapore tourism.

Cambridge REIT:

Highest yielding industrial REIT listed on SGX – Owns 43 industrial properties in Singapore.
Pays at least 90% of earnings as dividends – offers investor 12% yield based on FY10 earnings estimates
Dividends well supported by rental guarantee (16 months security deposits), long leases and step-up rent agreements (+2% pa); interest costs are hedged till 2012.

Singapore MRT:

Core business included rail, bus and taxi operation in Singapore. Pays at least 70% of earnings as dividends – offers investors 5% yield based on FY10 earnings estimates.
Opening of circule line and strong population growth will underpin ridership growth.
Defensive plays with low beta, strong earnings resilience and trading at lower range of its 14-20x trading band. Currently trading at 14.5x FY10 P/E multiple.

Singapore Genting:

Trading Buy on Genting Singapore. Fair value and recommendation: Target Price at SGD 1.25
Genting Singapore will enjoy a duopoly casino market structure in Singapore until Jan 2019
Benign competitive environment, low casino tax rate and excellent accessibility should help accord the stock a scarcity premium
Key risk: i) Economic downturn and/or health pandemic will lead to decline in visitors arrivals and lower gaming spend, ii)intense regional competition, iii)volatility in asset pries and hence wealth effect
Current valuation of 16.8x FY11 EV/EBITDA is at a premium to industry average of 8x-14x. Las Vegas Sands valuation peaked at 37x EV/EBITDA 3 months after the opening of Venetian Macau vs Genting Singapore’s current 16.8x. On a fundamental perspective, Genting Singapore valuation are already trading at a 40%-50% premium to the industry average 11x EV/EBITDA
Any downside is earning delivery could result in a relatively steep de-rating as share price has performed favorably YTD (+87%)

Dear investor, check out below pictures i took at ION Mall Orchard Road. Long queue for Louis Vuitton and Prada shop. But i do not see those long queue at Malaysia. Is REIT a good investment for you? What is your thought?

Double Dip Recession?

2009-11-26T08:36:00.000-08:00

Some of the investor asked me about the double dip recession few weeks ago. He said it make him worry whether should he take profit now. He told me he is holding WFC, BAC and LVS.

This is what i told him a few weeks back:
1. i am not the economist to predict double dip recession. and i do not know when is dip recession.
2. i do not like speculation, it make me very emotional and can't make my judgement properly.
3. i am looking at long term. What i understand now is DJI at around 10400 pt and there is a still huge room for appreciation vs DJI peak's at more than 14000 pt.
4. you are buying a good company like WFC which you should not worry. you should be happy to hold those good company. WFC and BAC are in my portfolio as well.

He replied, "but there is no fundamental, there will no any other stimulas package."
"If you are really not comfortable, go into analysis, sell with the trend to take profit.", i told him.

But today yahoo's new headline: Obama warns of a 'double dip' recession.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091118/ap_on_re_as/as_obama_economy

Some other new: Dubai debt fears hit world market hard.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Dubai-debt-fears-hit-world-apf-3624614071.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=2&asset=&ccode=

Dollar hits 14-year yen low amid Dubai debt fears
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Dollar-hits-14year-yen-low-apf-3450592897.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=3&asset=&ccode=

ehm.... well.... are my buy hold strategy not working for double dip recession? Frankly speaking, i do not know. But i will continue hold those stocks which are already in my portfolio. And i really happy to hold those company. Because, i know that those company are improving thier biz operation. They will get out from the trouble. The CEO is doing their job to improve thier biz.... One thing, i trust those company. American has proven in thier history for 200 years that they have the talent to improve thier country and make it better and better country.

one last thought, i would like to restate what warran buffet's qoute "Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful."

i will continue hold. how about you?

Retirement Planning Seminar (Part 2)

2009-11-25T22:49:00.000-08:00

A lot of time people talk about the inflation. But how much those inflation impact our life? Will it impact our retirement plan? I got some good snap shoot taken during my seminar. I think it is good to share with you.

Do you remember this? Check out the coffee price below. I am not that old to experience RM1 for 4 cups of coffee. But i still remember RM1 bought me 2 cups of coffee ;)

By the way, 4 cups, 2 cups 1 cup or 3/4 cup is not the killing part. The Killing part is Starbuck Coffee. RM10++... My favaourite Green Tea Latte RM15++..... Haha.....

Let review some official inflation data from government web. Do you believe in below inflation figure? Do you think 5.4 for year 2008 is low or high? Don't laugh, you got your inofficial answer ;)

What is the implication of inflation rate toward your Fixed Deposit? you are earning a negative income (real rate -1.7%) for FD in year 2008. Sorry for those who has a lot of FD in year 2008.

How about your retirement fund? EPF. ehm... not too bad... slightly better than FD.... but you are earning an -0.9% in year 2008 as well. Will this -0.9% impact your retirement planning? "probably not for year 2008 data. average return still good with 5%" ;)

How about below article? EPF has hard time to maintain ~5% return every year. So, what is your action? Do you still want to wait for government to gurantee your retirement fund? Some said your EPF is not sufficient, you need to die before age 77 (life expectancy in Malaysia) like what my previous instructor said ;) another instructor said, die also expensive.... haha.....

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2009/7/15/business/4318886&sec=business

What should i do? Where are the source for your retirement fund? Stock? Property? Bond? FD/Saving? Same type of question i have been thinking...............

Below are some of the instruments that you could use to plan for your retirement. Higher risk give your potential higher return. Find your own sweet spot. Talk to your financial planner or unit trust consultant to plan for your future. Let start together... Happy Retiring and Happy Jobless..... ;)

Retirement Planning Seminar (Part 1)

2009-11-25T18:59:00.000-08:00

I attended the retirement planning seminar. The instructor was a humourous guy from Public Mutual Brunch Manager, Vincent. He mentioned the top 5 fears for retirement survey result:

illness
capability to earn income
make lost in investment
inflation
continue prolong for economy downturn.

He joked about those fear also happen every month "Duit habis, bulan tak habis".... haha...
OK, let get into our real biz here today to share some good content during the seminar.

What is retirement planning? It is a plan to save and invest to maintina ones' pre-retirement lifesypte during the retirement years. Do you believe in one must have cash reserves of about RM1mil to be able to maintain one's current lifestyle 20 years after retirement? Check out the article below ;)

source: http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2009/1/28/business/3128286&sec=business

What is your ideal retirement age? Some said 55? 45? 35? The best retirement age is yesterday and today i do not need to work, so nice :) But are you ready for your retirement? can your retire?

RM500,000 only last for 16.7 years if you spend RM2500 per month. Do you have RM500,000 in your bank?

Table below showed how much of Retirement Fund Needed at Age 55. Is your Employee Provident Fund

(EPF) or Government Pension Scheme sufficient to cover below figure? A person at age 35 with RM2500 monthly expense requires more than RM1million lumpsum in the bank assuming that person live until 77.

I will share about on the inflation and instrument available in the market in my next Part 2 article.

Maxis IPO result

2009-11-15T21:57:00.000-08:00

Dear investor,

Maxis IPO result is already out. You could call up your broker to check the result. or below is the url
http://www.mih.com.my/enquiry.php

Rich Dad, Poor Dad

2009-11-11T08:31:00.000-08:00

i received a "My story" presentation today from Jerry. It was impressive and triggered me to start reading "Rich Dad, Poor Dad" which was left unattended on my book shelf for long long time. Below are the 6 lessons:

Lesson #1 The Rich Don't Work for Money
Lesson #2 Why Teach Financial Literacy?
Lesson #3 Mind Your Own Business
Lesson #4 The History of Taxes and The Power of Corporations
Lesson #5 The Rich Invent Money
Lesson #6 Work to Learn - Don't Work for Money

Dear investors, how do you do with the 6 lessons?

Maxis relist on Main Market Nov 19 2009?

2009-11-10T06:36:00.000-08:00

I read some interesting article on Maxis market view. I would like to share as a follow on dicussion on my previous Maxis IPO article. Again both views are in 180' reverse direction ;)

Why it is a buy

A must have large cap stock for fund managers
Industry learder since year 2000 and offers investors biggest exporsure to Malaysia's telecoms sector
It has a performance driven board and management (Ananda)
Good track record as old Maxis delivered 300% total return
Generate more cash vs spending due to hived off from overseas unit. Good dividens.

Why it is not a buy

RM5.2 is higher valuation than local and regional competitors. Limitted potential upside.
Not the only choice for dividend yeilds.
No regional exporsure, lack of growth
When the old Maxis debutted on Bursa in year 2002, mobile penetration was about 40% vs today more than 100% penetration.
Margin under stress due to competition.

how about you? is Maxis a buy or not for you?

Automated Forex Trading?

2009-11-03T15:53:00.000-08:00

Hi Friends,

I have excellent news to share especially for people with not much time available or know-how in Forex Trading. Forex Exchange is the largest financial market in the world with a volume of over USD3.5 Trillion a day and runs continuously for 24 hours a day, 5 days a week. It presents the best investment opportunity for anyone involved in the trade, for which many are not familiar with.

ESA Trader have just launch a "proven robot, rather a software" that automatically trades forex on your behalf. It's effectiveness was demonstrated when last year in Jan 2008 we started to test run the software and as at 31st July 2009, the account grew from an initial investment of $10K to $170K (aggressive mode) while it grew from $10K to $240K (extremely aggressive). We have just released and launch a "moderate risk software" that is being used by the general public since Aug 1.

Check out the website www.esatrader.com and see the statements of the clients. These are genuine statements of some of my friends' and it is up to date (real time). So if you are looking for a return of investments of 5% to 30% monthly, this will be just right for you (as can be seen from the account statements on the website). The initial minimum investment is USD2,000.

Alternatively, you could also earn as much as RM100K a month by introducing this investments to your friends. Please look at the above attachment (ESA Commission) for the potential earnings from this. The most important thing is, it is achievable.

Call me if you want to know more. Thanks.

A lot of my friends and investors received this email and some of them had joined the automated forex trading program with ESAtrader. ESAtrader even published statement of client on the website. Base on what they published on the web, ROI looked very attractive. 2 methods to earn $$:
1. deposit certain amount of $$ and use thier automated forex trading software.
2. start you MLM biz with ESA, you will get some commission for building up your network.

Check out thier web,
http://www.esatrader.com/
http://www.fxdd.com/en/index.html
http://www.nzfinancial.com/

"i am tempted", said one of the investor.
"it looked too good to be good", said one of the investor.
"i donno. i am not familiar with forex thing. i only know it is about the currency exchange trading. But i am into fundamental, i am happy with my buy and hold strategy and my portfolio right now. No intention to switch", i told them.
"i do not know what is ESA as well. but i heard a lot of high level manager from MNC joining the program. why not you go find out and share more with us?", i told them.

so, below are what they found in the forum.
http://cforum5.cari.com.my/viewthread.php?tid=1754825&extra=&page=1
http://blog.simplyjean.com/2007/11/14/sunshine-empire-probe-illegal-investment-company/comment-page-6/
http://cforum5.cari.com.my/viewthread.php?tid=1754825&extra=&page=1
http://www.forexpeacearmy.com/public/review/www.fxdd.com

Bear in mind that some information in the internet or forum might not true. No bias here. Please use your judgement for your risk analysis.

Is Maxis IPO RM5.2 attractive enough?

2009-11-03T07:37:00.000-08:00

Thank to anonymous for sharing below url in my previous article. It's very useful and provide some view on the Maxis IPO valuation to the investor.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125719127352623511.html
http://www.reuters.com/article/innovationNews/idUSTRE59B0P420091012
http://mysmartmoneytips.com/2009/11/02/should-you-subscribe-to-the-maxis-ipo/
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hEev48YbArfdzW87fuguU11b3VBw

Valuation:
Is RM5.2 at the right price? some analysis said it is too high, some said it should be RM4-6, some said you should not pay more than RM7, some said RM6. Which one is correct? Let review some IPO details. Based on the IPO price of RM5.2 per offer share, the total market capitalisation is estimated at RM39 billion. (When Maxis was privatised at RM15.6 per share, the company's market cap stood at RM39 billion as well). According to merchant bankers, if Maxis is valued based on EV/EBITDA, a RM5.2 is too high and translate to >9. Telekom Malaysia ~ 4.99 EV/EBITDA, DIGI.Com ~ 7.25 EV/EBITDA, China Mobile ~ 4.96 EV/EBITDA.

But whatever valuation, i believe Ananda has a record of creation value for his shareholders. right? Let look at Maxis accomplishments over the year and some recent awards.
December 2004 - First operator in Malaysia to launch the BlackBerry
April 2005 - First operator in Malaysi to launch 3G services
September 2006 - First operator in Malaysia to launch HSPA for wireless broadband services
March 2008 - First operator in Malaysia to surpass 10 millions subscriptions
March 2009 - First operator in Malaysia to lanch the Apple iPhone
April 2009 - First operator in Malaysia to launch commercial NFC services
PC.com Awards 2009 - Best Mobile Broadband
Frost & Sullivan Malaysia Telecoms Awards 2009 - Mobile Data Service Provider of the year
Brand Finance Awards 2008 and 2009 - Number 4 brand in Malaysia
Asia Mobile News Awards 2008 - Mobile Operator of the Year Malaysia
Malaysian Effie Awards 2008 - Silver Award Winner.

Market Overview:
Subscribers ('000)  Dec2006     Dec2007     Dec2008     June2009
Maxis                     8,068          9,765          11,234         11,423
Celcom                   6,079          7,202            8,761           9,698
Digi                         5,312          6,409            7,062           7,230

Financial Data:
Revenue (Million)   Dec2006     Dec2007     Dec2008     June2009
Maxis                      6,957.1       7,689.6       8,449.8        4,243.8
Axiata                    16,339.2      9,996.9     11,347.7        6,030.4
Digi                          3,652.5       4,362.6       4,814,5        2,423.2

PAT (Million)         Dec2006     Dec2007     Dec2008      June2009
Maxis                       2,105.4       1,980.2        2,400.4        1,141.0
Axiata                       2,302.3       1,847.6           471.1           621.8
Digi                              805.7       1,062.6        1,140.7           509.9

base on some peer comparison, are you favour in Maxis? is Maxis IPO too expensive for you? Dear investor, you have a choice :)

Maxis IPO

2009-11-02T16:02:00.000-08:00

Dear investor, are you ready for Maxis IPO? you could check out the customer eligibility to apply the offer shares at below url. IPO price is at RM5.2
https://dealernet.maxis.com.my/S/maxisipo/eligibility_check.asp