HarperBizarro

By-election dissection

2009-11-11T12:07:00.003-05:00

It's hard not to notice that commentators (mostly Tory-leaning) are continuing to paint the results as a huge failure for Michael Ignatieff. Norman Spectator leads with "The collapse of the Liberal vote..." thesis. He claims that pointing out pork-barrel politics actually helps the pork-barrellers. About all that does is confirm just how far some Tories have fallen from the high-horse of sponsorship indignation that they rode to power.
It's always risky to dig too deep into by-elections. The turnout skews so much of the normal thinking. Such is the case with the 4 recent electoral tests in Nova Scotia, Quebec and BC. We also had the added conundrum of one of the ridings being formerly held by an independent.
Having said this, here are some things to consider. (Note: % of vote is used in recognition of the turnout problem previously noted.)

% vote by Party in the 4 ridings

	2008	2009
Liberal	13.94	14.67
Cons	22.45	35.48
NDP	19.16	24.32
Bloc	23.87	20.68
Green	3.59	3.04

On first glance it appears that the Conservatives had a blowout night. Increasing their share of overall popular support by 13%. But wait a minute, that 2008 column doesn't add up to anywhere near 100%. It's skewed by the Bill Casey total from 2008. However, if one considers Casey's vote to have been Conservative vote last year (a reasonable assumption given that Casey is a lifelong Tory) then the chart looks like this:

	2008	2009
Liberal	13.94	14.67
Cons	37.53	35.48
NDP	19.16	24.32
Bloc	23.87	20.68
Green	3.59	3.04

Well, well...the Tory % of popular vote is down. Now I revert to what I said on first blush yesterday.
1. "The Liberals need to do better...candidate search, issues management, policy presentation, etc...but these are not ridings where they had a chance." This graphic illustration shows that the ridings at play this week offered little potential for Liberals and/or Ignatieff to build any kind of momentum.
2. "The NDP need to be careful not to read too much into 19% of a 22% turnout in a Montreal riding." They grew their share in Nova Scotia, but, only marginally more than the Liberals. They already held the BC seat. And the 19% in Hochelaga was up from 14.5%.
3. "The Greens need a drawing board to go back to...quickly." They didn't move much off their 2008 share across the 4 ridings, but, they were about half their last support in BC...and...that in itself means they need to come up with something fast.
4. "The Bloc needs a way to attract better "local" candidates (that was how Tories beat them)."
Actually, the last point applies to all parties. The Tories won Kamouraska by going from 30.6% of the popular vote to 42.7%. The Bloc dipped from 46% to 37.7%. How did they do it? Probably several factors, like they hold a neighbouring riding and that MP campaigned and spread political p ate, star power like Jacques Demers, etc. But, the overarching consideration was the local candidate. The Bloc ran a former staffer, thinking that they owned the riding that they have held for years. That arrogance was countered by the Tories recruitment of Bernard Généreux. A local mayor. The head of the Fédération Québécoise des Municipalités. In other words, someone who people knew and liked. Someone who is reported to be a straight shooter. This CBC report says a lot:
"Bernard Généreux, the former mayor of La Pocatière, turned Conservative candidate, is already addressing a group of 20 employees at a company called Bioglobe. I'm still recovering from my unexpected run when he says he doesn't agree with everything the Conservatives stand for. In fact, he says that's why voters should send him to Ottawa, to change the party from the inside and make it better reflect Quebec values. At that point I'm no longer out of breath, or at least I don't remember I'm supposed to be.
Later on, while we're sitting in his campaign van (yes, I did use my car troubles to get more face time with the candidate), Généreux won't expand a whole lot about what he meant. He does say that he disagrees with the way the Conservatives are handling environmental issues.
Those who know Généreux say that's just Bernard being Bernard. He says what he thinks."

We'll see...a better bet is that another seal has been added to the Harper benches.

Tip O'Neill used to say, "All politics is local". In Canada we can also say, "By-election politics is really, really local." Stephen Harper displayed that he knows the lesson and that is why the Tories had a "surprise" victory on Monday evening. A surprise to everyone, no doubt, except Harper.

But...where will Doer live???

2009-11-11T11:55:00.000-05:00

Real Estate Advisory Services for Property Sale - Washington DC
The Project:
The Government of Canada, through Foreign Affairs and International Trade Canada (DFAIT), is planning to dispose of the existing Washington, DC Official Residence for which real estate services are required. The subject property is a single detached home located in Washington, DC. The anticipated time frame for commencement of the property being listed on the market is January 2010.
Estimated Value $100,001 - $250,000

Remember 11-11-11-18 and all the sacrifice before

2009-11-11T07:12:00.000-05:00

Charles did NOT meet the Liberal Leader

2009-11-10T12:35:00.000-05:00

Contrary to most published reports so far, whether heralding or now reporting upon the Royal Couple's day, Prince Charles did NOT meet with Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff. Surely someone at CP with an ounce of protocol brain would realise that the Queen's son met with the Leader of the Official Opposition, Michael Ignatieff. If not, they can always check with Bill Curry.

From one Conservative to another

2009-11-10T07:40:00.000-05:00

Stephen Harper won't listen to anyone in the House of Commons who counsels action on climate change. He won't listen to the Jeff Simpson media types who counsel action. He likely wouldn't even listen to someone (and there must be at least one non-denier) from his own Tory gaggle. So maybe he'll listen to the current Magus of conservatism...

Merkel: climate deal needed in Copenhagen

Washington Post - Geir Moulson - ‎25 minutes ago‎

AP BERLIN -- Next month's climate summit in Copenhagen must produce a substantial agreement, and failure would set back by years efforts to fight global warming, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Tuesday.

Some Tuesday reading and by-election thoughts

2009-11-10T07:05:00.000-05:00

If you're looking for something to read...see below.
As for the by-elections, the Tories should should have done better in BC and they should drop the tired spin that "governments don't win by-elections". Of course governments win...Roberval and Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River come to mind during Stephen Harper's time. The Liberals need to do better...candidate search, issues management, policy presentation, etc...but these are not ridings where they had a chance. The NDP need to be careful not to read too much into 19% of a 22% turnout in a Montreal riding. The Bloc needs a way to attract better "local" candidates (that was how Tories beat them). The Greens need a drawing board to go back to...quickly.
Quick Tuesday reads...

Vaccine shortage forcing many clinics to close

Globe and Mail

From Tuesday's Globe and Mail Published on Tuesday, Nov. 10, 2009 12:00AM EST Last updated on Tuesday, Nov. 10, 2009 4:09AM EST A shortage of H1N1 vaccine is forcing flu clinics in many parts of the country to shut their doors this week at a time when ...

Major bed bug spike hits Toronto
CBC
Toronto is experiencing a dramatic spike in the number of bed bug infestations, according to a new report.
The report, funded in part by the city and the Ontario Ministry of Health and Long Term care, found that over an eight-month period in 2008, Toronto Public Health received 1,500 reports of bed bug infestations.

As Unemployment Rises, Kids’ Future Dims
WSJ, November 10, 2009
Forget frugality. Want to know what the true lasting impact of this Great Recession will be? Then take a look at the kids.
A parent’s job loss increases the probability that a child repeats a grade in school by roughly 15%, according to a new paper from two economics professors at the University of California, Davis.

Tories cash in on stimulus spending
Don Martin, Calgary Herald, November 10, 2009
If there's been a harder push by a governing party to buy a seat or two that doesn't mean very much in the greater scheme of things for Prime Minister Stephen Harper, it has escaped my fragile memory.

Koala bears 'could be wiped out'
BBC World
Australia's koalas face extinction within 30 years unless the government takes urgent action, conservationists warn.

Brown on the rack
UK Spectator Blog by James Forsyth
Watching Gordon Brown’s press conference you realise how on the ropes he is. The opening questions are all about the letter and Brown’s misspellings. Brown doesn’t have an answer that can shut this damaging story down and it is noticeable how he lacks the easy, public empathy of a Blair or a Cameron. Then the focus turns to Afghanistan and Brown lacks a compelling rationale for the presence of British troops there. All the while, everyone is forgetting the announcements on the NHS which Brown was trying to showcase this morning.

Canada talks boldly about free trade but does nothing to achieve it
G&M, Jeffrey Simpson
Canada isn't looking to lead in the stalled world trade talks, just as it isn't trying to lead in next month's Copenhagen climate-change negotiations. In both cases, Canada is among the laggard countries, holding back change, hoping, actually, for very little progress in order not to upset domestic interests.

Ontario muni, swine and Lunn

2009-11-09T08:44:00.000-05:00

George Smitherman is running for mayor of Hogtown. He clearly decided that a phantom campaign was not working, as polls last week indicated John Tory has a lead amongst potential voters who have already made up their mind. That poll actually provided Furious George with a pretty good rationale for getting out of the gate at this time...even if the poll itself is meaninglessly reflecting on things any candidates are in a race that can't start in earnest until January 4th according to the provincial legislation. Smitherman also indicated that he would be remaining as an MPP until sometime in 2010 so that he can finish up files that he is working on at the constituency level. It will be interesting to see how the public takes to this spin for justifying staying on the public payroll. No doubt, the opposition in the legislature and on the ground in Toronto will cry foul. It might even force them to bring forth amendments to recently introduced municipal voting act changes just to make a point. Those changes to muni election financing, dates, etc. are Jim Watson's baby over at Municipal Affairs...which reminds us...
How long it will be before Jim Watson makes a similar move to let folks know that he is going to take on Larry O'Brien, et al in the Ottawa Mayor's race? He would seem to have an even more legitimate pedigree than Furious George for a muni effort...he's had experience as Mayor in the past, now a successful tenure as a provincial minister, he is a conciliator-type (unlike Smitherman and O'Brien). No doubt he will be watching to see if and how Smitherman's staying on as an MPP plays with the masses.
On the H1 front the Tories are criticising questions about their abysmal handling of the issue as "excess polticisation". According to the Hill Times, they are joined in this partisan response by Canada's soon-to-be-former Head of the Public Health Agency, David the-Butler-did-it Jones. It is apparently lost on both the Tories and the Butler that their very response ensures a partisan debate. Imagine how the Tories would have howled had the Liberal response to the sponsorship spending fiasco had been "Don't politicise issues of Quebec separation".
It is also lost on both that Butler-Jones has been a willing participant in all those photo-op press conferences held by the Health Minister Aglukkaq once it dawned on them that they were behind the curve. Butler-Jones and Aglukkaq still need to tell Canadians why they chose not to insist that GSK find adequate bottling capacity for the packaging of the H1 vaccine (companies contract this out all the time). They also need to explain why Canada was one of the few countries not to do any pre-testing of the vaccine. They also need to explain why they didn't order non-adjuvanted product from the outset. They also need to explain why we are not applying both H1 and seasonal shots at the same time as in the UK. They also need to explain why Health Canada's paperwork requirements made it such that provinces could not use the seasonal flu delivery chain for the H1 shots. None of these are partisan questions. But, if they are not asked now, they will be forgotten later. They are already being avoided and the Health Minister is so concerned about the on-going H1 flu that she packed up and headed off on a photo-op with Canada's Minister of Rinks. Just like Fisheries Minister Shea who is so concerned about BC salmon that she too headed to Nunavut to join the Minister of Rinks, Lunn.
Ah yes...that Minister of Rinks...Gary Lunn. You would almost think the Harper Tories were trying to POLITICISE the Olympic Games. Certainly the recent spate of releases would indicate something along those lines...
Minister of State Lunn Celebrates the Passage of Olympic Torch in Nunavut
Nov 08, 2009 18:15 ET

Le ministre d'Etat Lunn célèbre le passage de la flamme olympique au Nunavut
Nov 08, 2009 18:15 ET

Le ministre d'Etat Lunn célèbre le passage de la flamme olympique à Churchill
Nov 08, 2009 10:00 ET

Minister of State Lunn Celebrates Passage of Olympic Torch in Churchill
Nov 08, 2009 09:59 ET

Avis aux médias : Le ministre d'Etat Lunn participe à une célébration communautaire du relais de la flamme olympique à Qausuittuq
Nov 06, 2009 18:32 ET

Media Advisory: Minister of State Lunn Takes Part in an Olympic Torch Relay Community Celebration in Qausuittuq
Nov 06, 2009 18:30 ET

Media Advisory: Minister of State Lunn Takes Part in an Olympic Torch Relay Community Celebration in Churchill
Nov 06, 2009 18:01 ET

Media Advisory: Minister of State Lunn Takes Part in an Olympic Torch Relay Community Celebration in Churchill
Nov 06, 2009 18:01 ET

Media Advisory: Minister of State Lunn and Minister Aglukkaq Take Part in an Olympic Torch Relay Community Celebration in Iqaluit
Nov 06, 2009 17:39 ET

Avis aux médias : Le ministre d'Etat Lunn et la ministre Aglukkaq participent à une célébration communautaire du relais de la flamme olympique à Iqaluit
Nov 06, 2009 17:39 ET

Media Advisory: Final Bid Presentation and Awarding of 2015 Pan American Games
Nov 06, 2009 09:54 ET

Avis aux médias : Présentation de candidature finale et l'annonce du gagnant des Jeux Pan Am 2015
Nov 06, 2009 09:54 ET

PricewaterhouseCoopers Report Shows 2010 Winter Games Create Jobs, Stimulate Economy
Nov 05, 2009 11:00 ET

Un rapport de PricewaterhouseCoopers montre que les Jeux d'hiver de 2010 créent des emplois et stimulent l'économie
Nov 05, 2009 11:00 ET

Le gouvernement du Canada souligne le début du compte à rebours de 100 jours avant les Jeux d'hiver de 2010
Nov 04, 2009 10:31 ET

Government of Canada Celebrates 100 Days to Go Before the Start of the 2010 Olympic Winter Games
Nov 04, 2009 10:30 ET

Avis aux médias : Compte à rebours de 100 jours avant les Jeux d'hiver de 2010
Nov 03, 2009 17:37 ET

Media Advisory: 100-Day Countdown to the 2010 Winter Games
Nov 03, 2009 17:36 ET

Minister of State Lunn Joins the Community of Duncan in Celebrating the Olympic Torch Relay
Oct 31, 2009 15:45 ET

Le ministre d'Etat Lunn se joint à la communauté de Duncan pour célébrer le passage de la flamme olympique
Oct 31, 2009 15:45 ET

Le ministre d'Etat Lunn se joint aux Canadiens à l'occasion de la première célébration communautaire le long du parcours du relais de la flamme
Oct 30, 2009 20:30 ET

Minister of State Lunn Joins Canadians for the First Community Celebration Along the Torch Relay Route
Oct 30, 2009 20:30 ET

Media Advisory: Minister of State Lunn Takes Part in an Olympic Torch Relay Community Celebration
Oct 30, 2009 15:30 ET

Avis aux médias : Le ministre d'Etat Lunn participe à une célébration communautaire du relais de la flamme olympique
Oct 30, 2009 15:30 ET

Avis aux médias : Première célébration communautaire du relais de la flamme au Canada
Oct 30, 2009 13:38 ET

Measuring genius

2009-11-06T15:29:00.000-05:00

Ah, the good old days...not all that long ago. Stephen Harper was being hailed as a political genius for the umpteenth time. That time being the clever ties that the Master Tactician had developed with the Action démocratique in La Belle Province. As was once written by Paul Wells, "...he showed his strategic prowess in Quebec by throwing his party’s lot in with Mario Dumont’s Action démocratique."
Jean Charest didn't think it so bright...and...
Mr. Harper doesn't look like such a genius today...

Disintegration of ADQ gains speed as one-third of caucus quits

Never judge genius by its start, just like you never judge a book by its cover.

Wildrose Alliance gains dismissed

2009-11-06T08:11:00.000-05:00

Throw the salmon to the asbestosers

2009-11-06T07:54:00.000-05:00

Since our ruling class doesn't seem to give a rat's ass about guns, and their place in our society, perhaps they could at least stop the mining and processing of this killer...not likely...but...the money that will be wasted on a "judicial inquiry" into disappearing salmon would be a good place to start. As for the salmon...they are in a witness protection plan (climate change denial anonymous) and will refuse to testify anyway...

Asbestos is our No. 1 workplace killer

By MARIANNE WHITE, Canwest News Service

November 6, 2009 4:02 AM

Exposure to asbestos is the No. 1 cause of workplace-related deaths for Quebec workers and amounts to about 60 per cent of all such fatalities so far this year, according to statistics gathered by Quebec's workers compensation board.

Jobless Harper recovery

2009-11-06T07:24:00.001-05:00

Stats Can has issued the latest unemployment survey...the low points (which coincidentally are the high points...(bold is mine). The jobless Harper recovery continues...

Following two months of moderate growth, employment decreased by 43,000 in October, all in part time. This drop pushed the unemployment rate up 0.2 percentage points to 8.6%.
Part-time work dropped by 60,000 in October, the second consecutive month of large declines.
Over the past 12 months, however, full-time employment has fallen at a faster rate (-2.7%) than part time (-0.7%).
Most of October's employment decline came from retail and wholesale trade, "other services" and natural resources.
Adult women aged 25 and over and youths aged 15 to 24 accounted for all of the employment decline in October.
October's employment decrease was among adult women (-24,000) and youths (-20,000).
Since October 2008, youths have experienced employment declines throughout the whole 12-month period, totalling 225,000 (-8.7%).
Declines in the number of private (-45,000) and public (-26,000) sector employees in October were partially offset by gains in self-employment (+28,000).

Bottom line...fewer jobs; the Tories vaunted job-sharing response to unemployment doesn't see to be working given the big drop in part-time employment; women and youth bear the brunt, and; self-employment rises, as people run out of EI benefits.
It is no wonder that you see comments like this (you should follow the link for a full read):

A Canadian Says "Short Canada"

Although I have mentioned the enormous property bubble in Canada on numerous occasions, I have also stated a belief that Canada as a whole was better off than the US.

Not so fast says Jonathan Tonge of the America Canada Blog.

Jonathan pinged me with the following email:
Mish,

Observing the attached August 2009 GDP report you’ll note that Canada’s economy is still receding and it has not escaped recession. Furthermore, the only sectors that are growing are from the result of one of two things: stimulus and a massively inflationary credit environment.
...
All in, I’d short Canada if it was a stock. This isn’t good news for America. We are by far your largest trading partner. We consume more American made products than any other nation by a long shot (4 times what China consumes). If our economy crashes in the near future, it will impact tens of millions of US workers who depend daily on the free trade of goods between our countries.

Vaccine contract myth...er...LIE

2009-11-06T06:54:00.002-05:00

The Tories tried the spin that their swine flu preparation failure was due to the evil supply contract with GSK. They are spinning hard that the "exclusive" contract tied their hands. Their intent was to try their old trick of painting this as an error of the former Liberal government. The MSM has picked up the "exclusive" lie and made it part of their rhetoric surrounding swine reporting. Today the Globe digs into the same issue as the Tories try to cover their tracks.
It's bullshit.
The government of Stephen Harper was no more required to use GSK as a sole supplier than say the Calgary Herald must buy newsprint from a supplier who runs out of stock. You can bet that in the latter case an alternate supply would be found quickly, and as soon as an imminent shortage was perceived.
The government of Stephen Harper failed miserably to manage the supply contract with GSK. The government of Stephen Harper proved itself that the contract is NOT exclusive when they finally decided to purchase non-adjuvanted vaccine from Australian pharma giant CSL.
The government of Stephen Harper failed to manage the supply contract when they decided to do nothing to immediately assist, or insist, that GSK find co-packers to provide adequate bottling capacity for the vaccine that GSK was easily able to produce. They knew the packaging challenge existed. They gave GSK $60 million more public money in September to expand the bottling capacity...by 2012...too late.
The bottom line is that Stephen Harper and his ministers are using their usual trick...create a lie...repeat it...repeat it...repeat it...
This time they are making liars of themselves...

Canada will have adequate vaccine for flu pandemic, health minister says
In the event of a global flu pandemic, Canada will be prepared with an adequate supply of vaccine thanks to a 10-year deal Ottawa has signed with a pharmaceutical company, federal Health Minister Tony Clement said Thursday,

CanWest News Service
September 13, 2007

QUEBEC — In the event of a global flu pandemic, Canada will be prepared with an adequate supply of vaccine thanks to a 10-year deal Ottawa has signed with a pharmaceutical company, federal Health Minister Tony Clement said Thursday

Who made the decisions?

2009-11-04T17:05:00.000-05:00

Leona Aglukkaq is widely quoted as saying, "We are doing better than any other country in producing vaccine on a per capita basis...". There may be a small play on words happening here. it is to be hoped not, but...
Indeed, the key word herein may very well be "producing". Vaccine is produced in bulk before it is packaged for end use, as the World Health Organisation points out. Hence, it is entirely conceivable that Canada is producing more per capita than other countries. We have a relatively small population. Indeed, reports now circulate saying we are shipping excess production outside the country.
Producing is not packaging end product. Packaging is more and more emerging as the one major bottleneck that threw a monkey wrench into the inoculation plan. Something could have been done to prevent the delays, line ups and anxiety we see every day, which to date have been largely attributed to a lack of vaccine. GSK could have looked to outside packaging assistance. The Government could have insisted that they do just that. This week the manufacturer and government warned there would be shortages...but, even last week we heard that clinics were closing early because of shortages. There is and should be a growing swirl of questions around who knew what, when and why surrounding the packaging of the product at GSK's Montreal facility.

It is also increasingly clear that another important error in swine flu planning (and one directly related to the packaging bottleneck) revolves around the question of non-adjuvanted versus adjuvanted product. At one point in time, someone made the decision to go with adjuvanted product, likely because it was a way to stretch the base antigen out. Fair enough, even though now we know it is not necessarily required to have the adjuvant. That is one of the exigencies of vaccine development. The US chose not to go the adjuvant route. That was their choice, we made ours.
Having said this, later in the process, it was then decided that pregnant Canadian women should have the option to use non-adjuvanted vaccine. Once again, fair enough. Even though now we know that internationally it is recognised that pregnant women show no different reaction to the two types.
Two critical decisions were made. One good and one dumb. On the dumb side...GSK was asked to provide 2,000,000 doses of non-adjuvated product. This was dumb because people had to know that GSK did not have the packaging capacity. People at GSK, in government and at Health Canada. Adding in this requirement simply meant that they had to shift their packaging/bottling line over to another product. It cost valuable packaging time for the adjuvanted product. On the good side...later the government contracted with Australian-based giant CSL for non-adjuvanted product in the form of 200,000 doses. At least this should have alleviated the pressure on GSK somewhat.
So the questions are...
Who made the decision to substitute bottling of adjuvanted vaccine with unadjuvanted?
Why didn't GSK look to outside packaging to offset their own limitations, and why didn't the government force this?
These can be added to other questions that will need response in any proper review of this whole boondoggle. Neither of these questions has anything to do with the provinces.

Lord Mandelson's folly

2009-11-04T15:52:00.000-05:00

Peter Mandelson has had better months. Then again, Gordon Brown has had better months and years. Lord Mandelson of Brown's Cabinet was at the centre of the Magna/GM/Opel haggles of recent times, which culminated with GM cancelling the sale of its European division to Magna yesterday.
In early October, midst the on-going negotiations, we heard from the Brit media that, "Lord Mandelson, the Business Secretary, believes Magna's proposals have "shortcomings". It seems that Baron Mandelson of Foy in the county of Herefordshire and Hartlepool in the county of Durham (that's a mouthful...and considerably longer than most peerage titles...Baron Black of Crossharbour, for instance) was convinced that the 10,500 job cuts that Magna intended to pursue in order to make the Opel unit a going concern were just too harsh. He was particularly concerned that the moribund Vauxhall division of Opel (5,500 UK workers) was going to suffer an out-of-proportion job hit. He used government largesse, or the withholding thereof, as a major weapon in his crusade to save Brit jobs. By mid-October he had "saved" about 500 jobs. He thought.
Well...its now back to the drawing board for the good Baron. Today GM announced that it would be cutting 10,000 jobs as part of its decision to retain Opel, et al. No doubt the Baron is hoping that the 500 difference in job cuts between Magna and GM ownership represents the 500 "saved" jobs at Vauxhall. He's probably hoping that he also isn't viewed as the laggard who scuppered the whole deal.
In the meantime, bad blood abounds in light of GM's decision. Unions in the UK and Germany are at each other's throats. The German government of recently-reelected Angela Merkel is ticked with GM and wants its money (US $2.2 billion) back from the American bailout king.
Just about the only person smiling is, no doubt, Frank Stronach. Magna shares are up $3.17 to $46.17 at midday today.

"H" is for Happy Birthday

2009-11-04T08:31:00.000-05:00

Happy 40th Birthday Big Guy...

Pigs coming to roost

2009-11-04T07:32:00.001-05:00

The Harper government had a particularly bad day yesterday when "truth" is used as the measuring yardstick. A yardstick that is the very basis of public faith in government. You have to trust the government if you are to believe that they have your best interests at heart...especially when it comes to public health.
The Auditor General put a lie to repeated Tory claims that they were "ready" for national emergencies, such as the current swine flu infestation. This has implications far beyond just public health issues, of course. The supposed-Minister of Public Safety, Peter Van Loan, has spent months playing his usual cheap partisan politics floating notions of "law and order" and bigger prisons. Now we learn that he was totally neglecting major portions of his responsibilities putting the political health of his party ahead of the public health of Canadians.
Maybe even more interesting in the realm of Harper truth-testing is the revelation that Canada's H1N1 vaccine supplier has been making bulk shipments out of the country while Canadians wait for the supply. This raises several key considerations and puts recent words of the Health Minister in a different light than the Tories may have hoped.
During the chaos of the last week, we have been told that the problem was with GSK. We were told that they had misled the government on what they could produce. Nonsense and potentially an outright lie by the government to protect their political hide. Not to mention that a senior public servant (David the-Butler-did-it-Jones) was part of press conferences where Leona Aglukkaq made such claims.
The government could not help but be aware of precisely what was available and when. As any person would know and expect, manufacture and shipments of drugs is one of the most highly regulated elements of our health system. Bulk shipments require approval from the the government on a lot basis. The government was aware from the outset that GSK was capable of producing more antigen than they could package. It stretches credulity to think that the politicians in the Harper government were not keeping an eagle eye on what was happening. An if they weren't...well then they are just plain incompetent, rather than liars.
The question from a practical planning point of view is, "Why didn't the government act (or demand that GSK act) to offset the packaging problem?" The repackaging of product is a regular practise in the drug industry, just as it is in the food industry. Why didn't GSK arrange for another packaging operation to fill the Canadian need prior to exporting bulk product? Why didn't the Harper Government insist on this? The latter question is the key. Not to mention...why have they not been telling Canadians the truth?

Flu...it's a bigger question

2009-11-03T07:59:00.001-05:00

Don Martin is having trouble figuring out the math on swine flu claims. Understandable.
He and others might want to ask about another inconsistency that has become apparent in the planning process and decision-making. It is highlighted by a response the Minister of Health, Leona Aglukkaq, provided yesterday during Question period when she said: "We know full well that in Canada about 4,000 Canadians die of the regular flu. The medical experts recommended that it was important to complete the vaccine against that. So that was completed over the summer months. As soon as that was done, the production of the H1N1 vaccine started, again based on the medical advice of the provinces and territories."
The underlying premise of this response is that "regular" flu is more critical than "swine" flu. If so, why did the government allow complete confusion to develop over which vaccine should be administered in which order? A sense of the confusion can be seen here at a Canadian Gardening forum involving real people.
More importantly, why did the government(s) allow themselves to be influenced by unpublished material? That is clearly not a normal decision-making protocol. Finally, this unpublished material was debunked by the World Health Organisation within days, so why did the government not adjust its own thinking? It could have allowed them to use existing "delivery chains" for both vaccines. Maybe even with some doubling up depending on deliveries.
Some of those "delivery chains" are highly reputable, like Ontario's Universal Influenza Immunization Program. The UIIP has been in operation for 10 years and provides vaccinations "...through doctors' offices, employer-sponsored clinics, public health units, local pharmacies, hospitals, long-term care homes, Family Health Teams, Community Health Centres and Community Care Access Centres." Sounds like it might have been a better idea than the jerry-rigged non-system that was put in place and has provided the confusion we have witnessed the last two weeks.
Of course, this would have required leadership. A leadership based in the notion that there is a role for the government in the everyday lives of people. You've read that here before. Yesterday, Michael Ignatieff noted that "...this is fundamentally a question about the role of a national government in a time of crisis."
It is not part of Stephen Harper's mindset to see a role for government. Fair enough. His mindset is dedicated to smaller government and running a PR machine that suits partisan purposes first and foremost. That is precisely why one of the Minister of Health's first lines of defence is to trumpet that "...I have held over 41 media briefings. This is unprecedented and it is consistent with our commitment to keep Canadians informed as part of the pandemic plan. In addition, the Chief Public Health Officer of Canada and myself have conducted hundreds of media interviews." Media briefings and media interviews are no substitute for real public education efforts and leadership.
This is not partisan carping. It is simply pointing out a difference between two approaches to government. It must also be said that Liberal comparisons to Katrina are no more helpful than Conservatives trying to blame a supply contract that was signed in 2001. They detract and lead journalists on sensationalist chases.

Swine flu observations/questions

2009-11-02T12:54:00.001-05:00

On Saturday, the Globe and Mail analysed the government(s) response to the swine flu challenge. It catches one's eye to note that the article says: "Six million have been delivered so far" when referring to the doses of vaccine available. Six million doses would presumably have covered all the "at-risk" groups that were to be covered in the first wave of vaccination. While there may be other shortcomings in actual delivery, a lack of vaccine should not be one of them.
And yet...we hear that provinces and territories are facing "shortages" of vaccine. The government says it is all the fault of their supplier, GSK.
A quick peek back raises doubt about the claim that all fault rests with GSK. The initial order, given months after most other countries had already placed their supplier orders, was for 50 million doses. A few short weeks later the Government announced that it was giving GSK $60 million to expand its "bottling" capability at its Montreal facility. Supposedly, this investment of public funds would double capacity to 33 million vials per month...but not until 2012.
Presumably the Harper government did modicum of due diligence at that time to ascertain the production capacity of their supplier. Theoretically, the existing 17 million vial production capability would have sufficed. That is less than 3 months production to meet the entire Canadian demand. Unless product is being shipped elsewhere to fill other orders that were placed in advance of the tardy Canadian order, that is.
What is the truth? A question that becomes more relevant each and every day on the swine flu file.
Is the government "playing with facts and numbers" as it scrambles to cover up the ineptitude reflected in many other areas of H1N1 pandemic planning?
Some of those areas of deficiency are:
1. Not having a plan for vaccination that included using GPs and existing clinics that normally do the seasonal flu and not administering both at once. The British are administering both at once, for instance. The province of Ontario doses roughly 40% of the population in its annual seasonal program. Other provinces perform similarly. That infrastructure should have been put to use for all Canadians.
2. Initial Health Canada paperwork demands for those administering doses to the public are reported to have been onerous. This worked against the idea of using existing infrastructure for delivery of the vaccine.
3. Not ordering a non-egg-based vaccine for use by people who have egg allergies. Baxter makes one and the British ordered both types.
4. Not listening to the early warning complaints of inadequate preparation from the Canadian Medical Association and the Federation of Canadian Municipalities several weeks back.
5. Failure to have an early and effective public education program. Failing to engage the Opposition MPs of all parties as part of such a public education program. For instance, they could have ALL done a common householder...or even re-profiled 10%ers away from things like gun control to a common H1 message.
6. Failure to do any vaccine trials domestically, though the government said they were. This undermines public confidence in the entire effort.
7. Issuing the "guidance guidelines" later than almost any other country. This just added to confusion and distracted real preparations in advance.
8. Using a sole source for vaccine (GSK) while other countries are using multiple suppliers. The claim that this is a result of the 2001 "contract" with GSK is bogus. A point exemplified by the fact that the government found no such constraint when it moved to correct another deficiency in planning by ordering un-adjuvanted product from another supplier a couple of weeks ago. No government, of any political stripe, is bound to ignore the health of their citizenry by any supplier contract. In fact, there is usually an "out clause" to allow them to find supply anywhere, if needed. That is no different than any line of business.
9. The government(s) stopped recording “incidents” of H1N1 months ago. This becomes a problem in long range understanding of the spread of the virus. It also does not provide any definitive form of early warning of a resurgence and, thus, adds to confusion.
10. The government has underestimated the potential economic impact…work absenteeism; school absenteeism and closures with loss of education time, as well as the impact on family life where there will be need to find child care during shutdowns; potential disruption to public services; loss of economic activity, as seen with the cancellation of major junior hockey in Moncton on the weekend; etc., etc.
11. The vaccine is reportedly in packages of 50 vials. This could cause storage problems down the supply chain, as it is bigger than usual packaging. It should have been in the more standard Ten Pack to facilitate use in existing doctor's offices and clinics.
12. The failure to adapt away from adjuvanted product as scientific evidence mounted elsewhere in the world that showed that single doses of the vaccine were sufficient.
13. Relying on unpublished studies to determine that H1N1 and seasonal vaccines should not be given in tandem. This caused mass confusion with every jurisdiction choosing their own way forward.
There are no doubt many more areas to be explored…all raising legitimate concerns and questions. The confusion that has been created needs to be cleared up. It is undermining public confidence in the entire vaccination system in Canada. That system, developed over years with federal leadership, has been key to limiting the negative impact of seasonal flu.

Swine costs mounting...to health and economy

2009-11-02T08:08:00.000-05:00

The Harper regime is intent on denying that they just didn't do enough to help Canadians prepare fro the swine flu. They hold their daily press conferences...they have belatedly rolled out an ad campaign...they will soon start blaming the provinces and territories for the chaos which exists. No doubt they will defend their poor planning for vaccine supply on the former Liberal government, as criticism of both GSK and the government mounts. Blaming others is the Harper way. But, recall this article from their good friend Lorrie Goldstein way back in July. The federal government should have provided leadership...they did not. They didn't listen to the FCM...didn't even listen to the CMA.
Public health and the federal role didn't matter to the Harper Government. Maybe the potential economic impact of the flu will get their attention in more than just the usual Harper PR sort of way. Major junior hockey in Moncton was cancelled on the weekend.

The Harpdemic

2009-10-30T14:45:00.000-04:00

What do you have with a government that doesn't believe in government?...
Harpdemic...saying they were ready, when they weren't. Saying there'd be enough vaccine, when there wasn't. Saying they had a plan, when they didn't.

HOW NOT TO RUN A PANDEMIC (The Ottawa Citizen, October 30, 2009)

VACCINE MAY RUN SHORT: FEDS (The Daily News Nanaimo, October 30, 2009)

'SIGNIFICANTLY LESS' VACCINE THAN EXPECTED; CLINICS MAY HAVE TO MODIFY ROLLOUT PLANS (National Post, October 30, 2009)

LONG WAIT FOR VACCINE ANGERS FAMILY DOCTORS (Toronto Star, October 30, 2009)

I WAS TURNED AWAY, EVEN BEING PREGNANT (Ottawa Citizen, October 30, 2009)

"You're going to start to see more children dying in the next few weeks." (Dr. Anand Kumar, Waterloo Region Record, October 30, 2009)

"Nous assumons que tous les enfants qui vont se présenter avec une symptôme de grippe ont la grippe A (H1N1)" (Dr. Arsenault, directeur médical des services d'urgence au CHU Sainte-Justine, RDI, 29 octobre 2009)

"If you wait for more than a day or so, then really by that point the virus and infection has spread so much that you may not change things." (Dr. Michael Rieder, Canadian Paediatric Society, Global National, October 29 2009)

"...government knew that this was going to happen. They knew it was imminent... Hospitals don't have plans and the ones that do aren't sure that they're effective." (David Howell, Emergency Preparedness consultuant, CTV, October 29, 2009)

"Nos urgences sont vraiment débordées, nous avons vu plus de 350 patients depuis le weekend, c'est le triple du volume normal... ca va nous empêcher de voir les enfants les plus malades." (Dr. Eisman, directeur médical du département d'urgence à l'Hôpital de Montréal pour enfants, RDI, 29 octobre 2009)

"We have no way of predicting which 18 year old, which 10 year old, which 30 year old who's previously healthy will end up on a ventilator. The only way we can actually prevent that is ultimately to be immunized." (Dr. David Butler-Jones, CTV News, October 26, 2009)

"We're seeing evidence of people with severe illness and life-threatening illness." (Dr. Joel Kettner, Manitoba Chief Medical Officer of Health, Winnipeg Free Press, October 30, 2009)

"Everyone is telling them to get vaccinated but we don't have the shots and we can't even direct people because there is nowhere to go... I could easily give out 200 a day but I don't have the staff or the vaccine." (Yvonne McLeod, Manager of Hilltop Medical, Vancouver Sun, October 29, 2009)

"All we can tell people who tell us their doctor's supply has run out is just to keep checking in." (Dr. Roland Guasparini, Fraser Health's chief medical officer, Vancouver Sun, October 29, 2009)

"Patients are hearing all the media coverage and that there is plenty to go around, but when they call our office and we explain that is not really the case, we are accused of lying to the public." (Kim Goodwin, Manager of the White Rock Medical Association, Vancouver Sun, October 29, 2009)

Tony Clement needs help...apparently

2009-10-30T14:38:00.001-04:00

According to MERX (government procurement) today...your Harper Government will be spending up to $250,000 of taxpayer dollars for speech writing.

Provision of Speeches for the President of NSERC, the Vice-Presidents of NSERC, the Minister of Industry
The written products will need to be produced and delivered on an as-needed basis, depending on the President’s or the Minister’s availability and schedule. The subject matter of the written documents may be complex or technical, depending on the audience and venue. Length of these products will also vary, as will deadlines.
Writers should have experience writing products in at least one of the following areas:
•    Natural sciences
•    Engineering
•    Research
•    Science and Technology Strategy
•    Economy
Value: $100,001 - $250,000
Published: 2009-10-30
Closing: 2009-12-08 02:00 PM Eastern Standard Time

That's a lot of tax dollars being spent ostensibly mostly for the good folks at NSERC, with Tony Clement sort of tacked on at the end. You would think that NSERC staff resource might be able to accomplish the task. The President of NSERC, Suzanne Fortier, has a background that would suggest she might at least have an inkling of what she might want to say. She has also proven to be very adept at providing compliments to the Harper Government, even as NSERC funding has been cut. Why she was even willing to suck up to the Boss Harp Minister of State. "It has been a real pleasure for us to work with the Hon. Gary Goodyear. He has already proven himself a champion of the science and technology community," she said earlier this year. That didn't go down to well with some of the scientific community at a time when the government was cutting funding. It hardly seems that she needs a speech writer. Maybe it is their VP Blair Dickerson who is in need? But, then again, she should not need any assistance in coming up with the right lines, given her recent background.
Perhaps the real reason for this particular contract is a need in the Minister's Office. What better way to hide ministerial expenses than to get departmental agencies to pick up the tab? It is safe to say that the Vice-President, External Relations and Communications (that would be Ms. Dickerson), who is listed as the "Project Authority" in bidding documents, would understand such a need.

Oooops...not much good news here

2009-10-30T09:31:00.000-04:00

Real gross domestic product decreased 0.1% in August after being unchanged in July. Oil and gas extraction and, to a lesser extent, manufacturing were the main sources of the decline in August. Wholesale trade, agriculture and forestry also retreated. Conversely, increases in the public sector, utilities, retail trade and construction mitigated these declines.
...
Manufacturing activity decreased 0.7%, with 8 of the 21 major groups retreating. The drop in primary metal products accounted for much of the overall decline in the sector. Labour disputes were mostly behind the reduction in production of the sub-sector. Manufacturers of machinery and paper products, as well as printing and related support activities also reduced their production. Increases in the production of motor vehicles, food and wood products tempered the decrease in the manufacturing sector. (Motor vehicle manufacturing re-started after shutdowns)
...
The volume of wholesaling activity declined 0.5% in August, reflecting the weakness in foreign and domestic demand. All major wholesale trade groups retreated, with the exceptions of personal and household goods, and automotive products.
...
Activity in the public sector (which includes education, health and public administration) increased 0.4%, largely as a result of the end of a strike by municipal employees in Toronto.
...
Value added in retail trade increased 0.3% in August. The volume of activity increased slightly among most types of retailers. New car dealers increased their activity after two monthly declines, as incentive programs may have bolstered sales.
...
Construction advanced 0.2% in August, the first increase since October 2008. A rise in engineering and repair work eclipsed reductions in both new residential and non-residential building construction. Residential alterations and improvement work advanced.
...
The finance and insurance sector decreased 0.1% in August, as lower credit intermediation and insurance services more than offset the increase in stock brokerage activities. Accommodation and food services advanced for a third consecutive month.

Friday bits and bites

2009-10-30T08:11:00.001-04:00

Swine Flu question(s) of the day:
1. Why aren't they setting up heated tents outdoors at clinics and hospitals? It is November in Canada...they knew that ahead of time. As a side benefit, keeping people out of the hospitals is a good idea anyway...it would limit the spread of microbes.
2. Why didn't we enlist GP clinics to deliver the vaccine...we trust them with seasonal flu delivery!!
3. Is it possible that the answer to #2 is that the vaccine and adjuvant are in separate vials and must be on-site mixed? And, if that is true, is it possible that the government decided not to use existing clinics as part of a pound-foolish approach to save a few pennies in lost volume? (UPDATE: Apparently not in separate vials. However, they vials are 10 dose size and in packages of 500. The original thinking was that doctor's offices might not be able to store such size boxes, etc. There is also the question raised today by physicians regarding the amount of "paperwork" that was initially considered to be required. The only plausible reason for Health Canada to want any more paperwork than the normal seasonal flu requires is that they were planning to do "follow up" studies on the vaccine thing itself.)
(PS...OttLib has a great piece on Swine Flu toda)
Over at BigCity we are given an object lesson in Conservative stupidity.
Thanks! It brings a smile.
Cathie asks why Saskatchewan is late getting vaccination underway for some at-risk groups (children and pregnant women).
Could just be because Saskatchewan has the largest population of another couple of at-risk groups...First Nations and remote communities.
All Politics is Local goes after the At Issue Panel today.
Well done! Everyone also forgets that the hated Dion tax shift could very well have been a much quicker direct stimulus package than what has been done. Since we are in a jobless recovery, the Harper scare-mongering around the Dion plan about job losses rings eminently hollow.
This may be John Ivison's last whine-and-grovel
Is Jim Prentice looking to hire an ex-journalist like some of his colleagues have done?
The Harper photo-op of the day is all thumbs.

Harper $34 million strategy panned

2009-10-30T07:50:00.000-04:00

Stimulus Poll
CP
Oct 30 02:38

OTTAWA _ A new poll suggests most Canadians believe the Harper government is favouring its own when it comes to stimulus spending.
Fifty-six per cent of respondents to The Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey said they believe the Conservatives have been handing out stimulus money unfairly, favouring Tory ridings. But when asked if they thought the spending practices should be stopped, only 46 per cent said Yes.
The survey also suggests the government's taxpayer-funded ad blitz to promote its stimulus plan isn't giving people enough information. The Tories have spent 34 (m) million dollars to promote their Economic Action Plan. But only 29 per cent of the poll respondents said they were aware of any stimulus projects in their areas.

Wall Street Journal mind numbing

2009-10-30T07:45:00.000-04:00

A mind numbing, and thankfully short, piece in today's WSJ has the lede: "Along with Thursday’s GDP report, the Department of Commerce offered an important clue to answering one of the biggest questions hanging over the U.S. economy: How quickly U.S. consumers can shed their onerous debts and get into a position to spend again."
The data referred to is "...the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that U.S. households’ annualized mortgage payments fell by more than $10 billion in the third quarter from the second, a decline of about 1.5%. In all, they had fallen an annualized $35.7 billion from their peak in the first quarter of 2008."
The balance of the article makes the point that this fall is good because it shows that household debt is being controlled. "And if the growing ranks of delinquent mortgage holders are any indication, the finances of U.S. households will be even better in quarters to come."
A reader would be excused if the hypothesis that losing homes is good for the economy doesn't seem believable. Apparently by the final paragraph the author realised what he had just put forth. The conclusion was a bounce back to partial reality: " None of that, of course, means that people will be heading straight for the mall. Many have lost their homes, their jobs and much of their savings. But for those who have gotten out from under onerous loans, it will be a bit easier to live within their means."
What condescending, survival-of-the-fittest nonsense. The notion that the widest read publication in the United States could even suggest that foreclosures are good for the economy is absurd...news interpretation taken to the extreme.