Having a Mare

Melbourne Cup 2012 Thoughts

2012-11-06T09:52:00.002+13:00

Lets get the favourites out of the way first. I have been looking very hard at both (2) Americain ($7.50) and (1) Dunaden ($6.50) since the Caulfield Cup. I am not going to break much ground with this analysis but Dunaden was amazing in the Caulfield, he won here last year and probably has improved since then, he would have taken improvement from the Caulfield run and has to be in this. Americain was probably the next best Caulfield Cup run, he will meet Dunaden a kg better off at Flemington, he knows how to win this race and the extra half mile will suit. They are hard to split for me, while I can conceive a situation in which neither of these runners win, I find it hard to see a situation in which one or both of these runners doesn't place, and certainly cant see either finishing outside of the first handful across the line.

How would you bet this? there is just too much uncertainty in this race to grab $6 - $7.50ish, however if you like either then the roving banker option might be the way to go, take your preferred option and box with 5 or 6 others and hope something wide pushes up the trifecta pay out.

Who else do I like?
The next two favourites are (4) Red Cadeaux ($9) and (8) Mount Athos ($7). It is hard to fault either one. Red Cadeaux will meet Dunaden better off for weight this year; he only just lost last year. I am not sure he is better than Dunaden, but the 3.5kg difference is tempting. He will go a good race and not be far off them at the end. I am a bit concerned about the lack of obvious speed in the race, I think he might settle back from barrier 18, but that may put him in a position to keep an eye on Dunaden.
Mount Athos, is fresh today, that is a state in which he typically goes well. He is carrying 54kg today, two starts back he carried almost 10kg more than that to win. He is well drawn and will stay well. My only concern would be about the step up to this level, this is much tougher than anything he has faced in the past.
It is hard not to include either of these in multiples, I actually like Red Cadeaux more, but I don't personally like either of these as much as the first two or some of the ones I will mention, but I can see their merits and the reason they are here to race.

Now to be more interesting
There were four others I really liked on recent performances, but I have ruled out (23) Zabeelionaire ($51) based on the draw, he will just have too much work to do, he has been steadily improving, looks like he will get the 3200m, and is only carrying 52kg's, but will possibly arrive too late to feature.

(17) My Quest for Peace ($18) - I liked him a lot heading into the Caulfield Cup, his performance there was pretty good. He is beautifully drawn, he should get a nice trailing run behind (13) Glencadam Gold ($41) and (6) Voila Ici ($101) (but because of the size of the field we might see some unusual faces pushing forward to find a position); I think it will pay to be handy in this race. He ran on well at Caulfield and he will be able to get the 3200m, he has won up to 2800m when he was carrying 62.5kg and is well placed here to go a good race.

(16) Mourayan ($21) - He first looked like a contender here 3 starts back in the Makybe Diva (she was a pretty good Melbourne Cup runner), his flying 4th was great. He then went to Sydney and ran on pretty well in the Hill Stakes and then won the Craven Plate. He will step up in distance today after a month off, he is up to 3200m for the first time, last year he won up to 2500m so he should get the trip. He has improved over this preparation and has won 4th up in the past. The 53.5kgs is also another tempting factor in play here.

(10) Ethiopia ($21) - He just seems to be getting better at the right time. The Cox Plate run was very good, and he came home very well in the Turnbull. He has only one once, but that was in the Australian Derby, that run was fourth up after a somewhat similar prep (except this prep as been tougher). Again he is well weighted and can add to her lone win today.

How hard is this race?
I am going to throw some more names at you, these are others which are very tempting to take, they possibly have their flaws, but certainly have to be considered.

(7) Cavalyman ($26) - Dropping in overnight in the odds. His last three races have all been between 3200 and 3300m. The step up in class is going to test, but he will only carry 54kg after carrying 60kg last start. He has been freshened since that, but has a history of coming back from spells over long distances and running well. I like him the most of these flawed contenders.

(24) Kelinni ($21) - The Lexus winner is always a consideration. He has had a solid preparation with a second at Group 1 level two starts back. He ran strongly for victory on the weekend and will drop to 51kg.

(20) Lights of Heaven ($16) - Possibly a little but forgotten, she ran a good Caulfield Cup. Will she stay 3200m? I like others more and $16 is possibly a little short, but could go well.

(14) Green Moon ($17) - It is possibly hard to take the Turnbull winner at 53.5kg, the Cox Plate favourite was not amazing in that race. He has won 5th up and has had a good preparation to date, it is just a case of liking others more.

(13) Glencadam Gold ($41) - Failed in the Caulfield Cup after a very strong lead up campaign.What went wrong? did he work to hard to lead? was the race too tough? He does seem to go better at the start of his preparations and drop off, maybe we have just reached that point. I can't have him, but he is not the worst.

(12) Galileo's Choice ($13) - Am I really going to pick a hurdler to win a Melbourne Cup? We know he will get the distance, we know he will easily carry the weight, he does go well after a spell and will come into play with rain. I don't know much, but will a hurdler have the turn of foot to sprint with them when it is time to go?

That is about half the field covered? Not sure where to place Red Cadeaux and Mount Athos in this mix, but other than them it is a rough prediction of where they should finish. I am very excited for this race as per usual. Enjoy the race.

Weekend Highlights

2012-09-21T12:07:00.000+12:00

Technically I don't think these are highlights since they are yet to occur, but there is certainly a lot to look forward to on both sides of the Tasman this weekend.

The Aon Insurance Brokers Handicap in the Hawkes Bay will see a lot of top Sprinters make their return for the Spring and Summer., several of the returning runners including Ginner Hart, Aspinal, and Capone have solid first up records to consider. This race will also feature the return of notable 3YO's for their 4YO season, Ginner Hart, Pellegrini and Capital Diamond. You would think the drop back in distance should suit Fritzy Boy, but there are others at lower weights who look a big threat. The Hombre is Group 1 Placed over this distance, he opened as favorite, good conditions on his home track will make him hard to beat even at 58kgs. Baby Guinness looks a danger stepping back into Handicap conditions, she was consistently solid last season, and will enjoy the step back from Group 1 class.

1. Baby Guinness ($7.50)
2. Ginner Hart ($4.50)
3. The Hombre ($4.20)
4. Capital Diamond ($10)

The Gold Trial Stakes is always a good race, they have a top field assembled which should prove a good gauge on form of the filled heading to the guineas. Kate was a very impressive winner here on the first day, and the fact she is paying $8 at the moment is a good indication of the quality of this race. Roll out the Carpet, was relegated from a Group 1 victory as a 2YO, but her win in the Matamata Breeders stakes is still the most impressive victory of any runner in this race - in terms of stature of the race. Fix was very highly regarded on her return run, and this could be a good sign for the chances of A Touch of Ruby who was narrowly beaten in that race. Soriano was solid in both 2YO Group 1's, again she was not far off Fix first up this season. The well named Waterford (I see what you did there) was better than solid late in the 2YO season. Cassie May was consistent at age two, she is already having her third start at age three, this is tougher, but the step up to 1200m should be an assistance. Oasis Rose is back after a long lay off, she showed ability at age 2, but it is hard to know what to expect. Pure Elegance is the favourite, re-watching that start you can see why, I have not seen the trial, but It must have been very impressive. Coastal Express is another who is back for a second start since May. Meleka Bella is stepping up in grade as a recent winner.

1. Pure Elegance ($3.20)
2. Kate ($8)
3. Fix ($6)
4. Rollout the Carpet ($6.50)

The Stayer's come out in the PGG Wrightson Premier, they will be aiming for the third day and beyond to the New Zealand Cup. Carrick is the favourite at very short odds, it is hard to see why based on his last start, and he will carry a kg more, however more distance and better ground will help, but he is nearly impossible to have at $2.80. Back in Black was very impressive on the first day, 2000m will be more suited, but his form was very up and down last year and he will carry more here. Flemington will be looking for this extra distance, he will be also down in weight, but he probably needs a couple more starts before you see him as a winning chance. Herman Munster enjoys the track and distance and might be a bit of value in the wet, unfortunately it looks dry on Saturday. Pero looks a good chance on paper and on the recent victory, but he is probably slightly under good value here.
Rumour Has It Now has been very consistent and looks a very good light weight chance. Seaflyte has never done much in the Bay, but this feels like the kind of race he could win, the weight looks right, the distance should suit, the conditions will be favourable, and the competition is not the hardest, he was second in this race last year carrying 54kg on a good track paying $21 coming off a 10th first up... the winner of that race was Back'n'Black.

1. Seaflyte ($18)
2. Pero ($5)
3. Back'n'Black ($8)
4. Rumour Has It Now ($14)

A note on Carrick - Whenever I see odds of $2.80 after a race like Carrick had two weeks ago I start to suspect there is something that I don't know or don't see.It is possible that Carrick is simply the class in this race, certainly he will be more favoured in these conditions and over 2000m. Frankly, I thought he was a bit overrated last year, I was shocked with the 3rd in the Derby, he was generations behind Silent Achiever, and his two wins have been for $5k and $13k. I would not be shocked to be proved wrong here, but either way it is hard to bet on him at $2.80.

Onto the Group 1 Windsor Park Plate, all I have are questions. Can Mufhasa bounce back with the step up to 1600m? Will Justanexcuse regress to the norm? How will Green Supreme handle WFA conditions this time? ~~Who is special days?~~ Will Special Days have more luck returning to New Zealand than other runners in the past? Was it only track conditions that have hurt He's Remarkable in recent starts? Can Fears Nothing break the 2nd up duck when in form? Everything is lining up nicely for a strong Shez Sinsational performance, is 1600m too short? How much of Fleur de Lune's last start performance was bad luck? Is Guiseppina a sprinter or a miler? (Postman's Daughter) Where would Full of Spirit rate in this field? How much difference will 2kg and 400m make to Villifye? Is this Xanadu's race to lose? Will the dry surface hurt Innovation's chances?

1. Xanadu ($4.50) - Too eye catching last start to turn down
2. Guiseppina ($6) - 200m more last time would have seen her close
3. Mufhasa ($4) - Still capable of winning this

4. Fleur de Lune ($16) - has the Group 1 1600m record

A note on Mufhasa - I think he can win this, I have not picked him to do so. I have picked him for third, but I would be surprised to see him finish third. If he is at his best and still has the ability to win these races, then he will win on Saturday. If he is not, probably there are several others who may finish ahead of him, and he may find himself 6th or 7th. I think he still has it, so I have included him, but this will be a good indication.

A note on Shez Sinsational and He's Remarkable - Conditions, Conditions, WFA?. Too Short, Too Short, Conditions, Luck?. Those are valid excuses for the recent performances of He's Remarkable first and Shez Sinsational second over their past 3/4 starts. I do have a question mark over He's Remarkable at WFA on Saturday, and I do have a question mark over Shez Sinsational at 1600m. Bad luck can strike at any time, but on Saturday I would expect to see better performances from both of these runners, at 1600m Shez Sinsational should be running on strongly and could grab a place. He's Remarkable has won carrying more than the 53kg he carried in the Railway, but I am starting to suspect he might be a tad overrated.

I still have no idea on this race, I like Xanadu, and could talk myself into any one of about 6 other runners for 2nd through 4th. My first draft had Xanadu, He's Remarkable, Fleur de Lune, and Mufhasa as the first four. I can also see Postman's Daughter, Villifye and Shez Sinsational going well.

Melbourne
Underwood Stakes
The winner here could become the Cox Plate second favourite. Ocean Park's first Aussie start, it will be very exciting. It is hard to go past Manighar after the last start second, he would have won if that race had gone another 5 meters and really killed them with another 200m. December Draw was possibly slightly unlucky in that race, but probably not unlucky enough to see him winning this, although 200m will help.I have never been a big fan of Sincero in Melbourne, that may change if he continues his recent form, I still see it as hard to have at $5 despite the quality of the Memsie field he beat. I would expect to see better things from the likes of Illo, Maluckyday, Mawingo, and Niwot. Drunken Sailor could figure fresh. There are also the imports to consider.

I think Manighar will take this out, but it should be a good race with a lot of runners to note. Ocean Park for Second, Southern Speed will be close and Mawingo to round out my first 4. However I think I still need to get by bearings on these runners.

The day in Melbourne is great with the 1000 Guineas Prelude. Single Minded and Zurella in the Naturalism, excited to see Zurella again. Then we get another look at Mosheen in the last.

Sydney
Its a Dundeel and other Derby hopeful 3YO's start off the day in Sydney. Three races later we will see more 3YO's on display in the Group2 Tea Rose.

I would expect a far better effort from Quintessential in the Group 1 George Main Stakes, but this is tougher. All Too Hard is carrying nothing, secret Admirer was very good in the last couple of races, and Danleigh was a very impressive winner last start. There are many others who can figure, it is sure to be a great race.

I thought Mourayan was very good last start, this is tough, but there looks to be some value at $7. Lots of other runners here who will be heading to the big spring races, this is one to watch.

Spring Notes - 15 September

2012-09-19T10:24:00.000+12:00

Things are starting to get pretty serious, so once again I am here to share with you the notes I made while watching some of the bigger races in New Zealand and Australia over the weekend. As always prices at per the NZ TAB

Ruakaka

2YO's
With every runner having their first race day start there was only a couple of trials to rely on for punters. 2YO's really ramp up in the New Year, so hard to say how meaningful a race like this could be, but it may shed some light on the early season listed races for the 2YO age group.

All seemed to travel pretty well, the winner Doubtless really walloped them pulling away to win comfortably. Cant see too many excuses for the rest of them, the next three all finished in quick succession, Almansa (4th) attacking slightly earlier than the others and probably having to do a bit of extra work.

3YO's
Westbruy Stud Challenge Stakes
Well you can all call me crazy. I thought this was a strong field heading into the race, and expect it to be a reasonably strong indication of form moving forward.
Sacred Falls was dominant, had a fairly easy trip, took a bit to wind up once he saw space, but really looked great with a comfortable win.
Southern Lord showed us a solid finish, he struck on next to the eventual winner in the straight, but Sacred falls was just a bit too powerful as Southern Lord dropped away. He probably had to work a bit harder during the race and possibly is closer to Sacred Falls than this race indicated.
Travino looked to struggle for a run, he did find some space and closed on Southern Lord.
King Zeus made ground well, but again was possibly suck in some traffic as Charlie Farley went back through the field, and then again behind Travino.
D'Cash Man finished 4th, he did a lot of work leading and fourth was a strong result.
Elysium really struggled for space, she was still probably 2nd last with 150m to go, she then really came home well into 6th. She was the only filly in the race and certainly held her own.
Silverdale probably does have a bit of an excuse, was last on the turn and had some space on the rail to make a run, but had to make an adjustment to get around Charlie Farley, he accelerated again, but slipped to 7th. He may offer value to someone next start.

1000 Guineas
Elysium - $12

2000 Guineas
D'Cash Man $51
Elysium $31
King Zeus $26
Sacred Falls $7
Silverdale $61
Southern Lord $41
Travino $31

Spring Championship Stakes
King Zeus $61

It is a long way out and a lot can change, but certainly some interesting odds on offer there.

Antonio Lombardo was a group 1 contender heading into his 3YO season, I think he showed that he should remain as a contender this season. He had a fairly solid trip, and actually got a challenge as he wound up and eased away from them. Simple really.

Marton
Metric Mile
No Excuse Maggie was probably caught a little wide early on and had to work. She never really settled into a comfortable position to get into the race.
Amberio had such a nice journey around the track, she showed very good fight, conditions suited and she was only carrying 53kg, but possibly can keep up this solid form as the ratings rise.
Flemington is obviously seeking more distance and looked to pull up over the last 100m or so.
As good as Dubai Belle looked I think it might be hard to see her doing it again in handicap conditions, she wont get that much weight relief and the conditions really suited her well. She has been consistently good recently and seen her rating go from 72 up to 95, but possibly might be one to keep watching on wet tracks.
I thought Zennista looked pretty good for 5th, and Khemosabi held on well for 4th, and Art Beat arrived strongly for 6th.

Spring Classic
Zennista $31 - More distance should suit, WFA is not a concern
Flemington $31
Superturf $101 - Kept fighting for third and looked good but would be hard to take at WFA.

New Zealand Cup
Beau Dane - $41
Flemington $12

Melbourne
Race 1 - 3YO Hcp - Very impressed by Philippi he really wound up to win. Second placed Carringbush Jack seemed to wind up and extend late. Forget seemed inferior to the first two, but still finished strongly and Adjuster set a good pace and just ran out of steam.

Race 2 - 3YOF - Saturn Rock is one we are familiar with with New Zealand, she trailed at the back of the field but looked comfortable. She had to work hard for her run but finally found space at about 150m and came hard to finish third.
Love for Ransom came from further back than Saturn rock probably 2 lengths behind Saturn Rock on the turn and probably extended the lead about a length in the final 50m. Setlla Lante worked hard around the bend and found some space. Mama's Choice was solid and probably lifted again very late. There was a solid finish by Malasun to finish 5th.

A lot of the 3YO's are 1000 Guineas and Caulfield Guineas nominated

Race 3 - Adapt Australia Handicap- Precedence back to winning form and under a big weight. He had to do a bit of work when he attacked early, Michael Rodd went for the whip around the bend. He really wound up and scored going away from them. Spacecraft led and put in a pretty solid run, he kept finding. New Zealand St Ledger champion Guns and Five looked good for 1600m, really wound up and showing his best form in Aussie so far. Ebony Rock finished fifth, but looked to be craving more ground with a strong finish, 1700m is the longest he has gone so far, but may improve over more distance.

Caulfield Cup
Precedence $61
Guns and Five $101

Melbourne Cup
Precedence $51
Guns at Five $101

Race 4 - Japan Trophy - Saw Tanby carrying a big weight, worked home pretty well, but just couldn't really do enough with a 4kg difference, not the worst effort.

Tanby
Melbourne Cup $81
Caulfield Cup $26
The Metropolitan $18

Buxted
The Metropolitan $18

Melbourne Cup $101

Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes
Happy Trails - fought really hard, he actually looked gone and then just seemed to find more.
Green Moon - had a pretty cosy run, he came hard as the two leaders pulled away, almost got there. Looks set to meet Happy Trails 1.5kg worse off currently in the Caulfield Cup, but that will likely change depending on acceptances.
Rekindled Interest - came from about mid field and finished hard into 3rd, a length and a half back, but should get more distance. Cox plate might be tough.
Linton - Looked rejuvenated, wasn't doing much on the corner then followed Rekindled Interest well.
Sneak a Peak - was coming home over the top of other runners.
Ethiopia - Eye catching run for 7th. Will get another kg off over the longer Cox Plate distance.

Current Odds
Ethiopia - Cox Plate $41 - Melbourne Cup $26
Green Moon - Cox Plate $10 - Caulfield Cup $13 - Melbourne Cup - $13 Metropolitan $10
Happy Trails - Cox Plate $21 - Happy Trails $41
Linton- Cox Plate Cox Plate $26 - Caulfield Cup $26 - Melbourne Cup -$31
Rekindled Interest - Cox Plate $12 - Epsom Handicap $16
Sneak a Peak - Cox Plate $81 - Caulfield Cup $41 Melbourne Cup $61

Top Cut Stocks Stakes
Chicharita - Improved in her second Melbourne Start, will continue to improve over more distance. She settled well, but drifted rare and seemed slow to react when the speed was raised. She finished very well for 7th.
Oasis Bloom showed a very strong finish to win.
I thought Dame Claire found another gear late, too late, she was 8th, but looked pretty good.
Spirit Song was narrowly beaten and Oasis Bloom pulled away, but Spirit Song really pushed hard down the inside, possibly unlucky.
Avienus finished really well, but was just out finished by Chateau Margaux.

Current Odds
Avienus - Caulfield Cup $201
Chateau Margaux - Epsom $101 Caulfield Cup $51
Chicharita - The Metripolitian - $81 Caulfield Cup $101 Melbourne Cup $201
Dame Claire - Caulfield Cup $151 Melbourne Cup $301

Sydney - Just a couple of relevant Sydney notes

More Joyous was so good. She looked very calm and relaxed prior to the race, settled in Second and pulled away for the easy win. Likely not to race the Epsom ($10). This Cox Plate is shaping up like an awesome race ($6.50)

Golden Rose
The whole point of these notes is that once runners start having several starts you can build up a bit of history and begin to form opinions. Two weeks ago I showed you odds for Epaulette without commenting on his performance, he looks to have a bight immediate future.
Epaulette and Albrecht both looked very good, they were both trailing the field and came from last very quickly to draw away from the rest for victory. The next two home Ashokan and Ninth Legion both looked as strong as each other but certainly weren't getting any closer to wining.

Cox Plate
Epaulette $41
Ninth Legion $201

Spring Championship Stakes
Ninth Legion $8

Kingstown Town Stakes
The first two Stout Hearted and Crafty Irna travelled well, Stout Hearted caught Strawberry Boy and just comfortably drew away. Crafty Irna fought hard to make up a lot of ground, but probably stopped gaining with about 50m to go. Strawberry Boy was not too bad, he just ran out of steam. Praecido and Ironstein both made good ground from deep, but stopped getting closer. The Verminator possibly struggled to get the best run in the straight and Maules Creek ran out of steam over the 2000m.

Crafty Irna - The Metropolitan - $18
Ironstein - Caulfield Cup $201 Melbourne Cup $101
Maules Creek - The Metropolitan $31
Praecido - The Metropolitan $61
The Verminator - The Metropolitan $26 Caulfield Cup $101 Melbourne Cup $101
Strawberry Boy - Epsom $16 - The Metropolitan $14 (Status uncertain for both Sydney races) Caulfield Cup $61 Melbourne Cup $151
Stout Hearted - The Metropolitan $12 Caulfield Cup $31 Melbourne Cup $51

Going Crazy for 3YO's

2012-09-15T11:21:00.000+12:00

This was going to be a short tweet, but then I realised I had more than a couple of thoughts on the 3YO feature from Ruakaka today.

I decided to go back and watch the last couple of starts of all the runners at the NZ Racing site.

There are so many runners starting today who were recent winners or close up last start.

On video the most impressive three wins that I saw were from Elysium (pulled away from them), King Zeus (covered a lot of extra ground in testing conditions), and Sacred Falls (two impressive and different victories).

There were 3 other runners who looked good, Buckland Boy (winner of last two on this track), D'Cash Man ( two strong leading runs), and Silverdale (strong finishing run against tough competition two start back), Southern Lords last start win was also impressive.

Then you have to throw Travino into the mix, he was excellent last year early in the season, he continued to compete at group 1 level. He will likely go well fresh.

So, this leaves me little chance of finding a winner; I just got confused and kept jumping back and forth as I watched each performance.

I think that I have gone crazy, the run that impressed me and is staying with me was the last start victory of Charlie Farley. Yes, he finished 7th behind Sacred Falls in Hamilton 3 starts ago, but his win on this track was eye-catching. He raced 3 wide the whole way, without cover, and toward the back of the field, then he just simply bolted in. He must have covered at least 1200m, he will probably get better over more distance anyway, he has the advantage of the draw. This is a step up and will be a challenge, but when I saw the bookies quote of $21 and $6 I thought that if I can't pick a winner here, picking a value place option might be just as good.

Then again, as I said, maybe I am going crazy.

Racing Reality

2012-09-13T09:54:00.001+12:00

Shameful confession time; I watched The Ridges last night (hey, I live with Girls). It was an amazing 30 minutes of TV; amazing because nothing happened. No conflict, no interesting plot twists, no staged over-produced segments (with the exception of the mouse release in the kitchen). This was not the Kardashian's, on that show the producers at least have the decency to put the characters in situations where something interesting has a chance to happen. In some ways that made The Ridges the most REAL of all the reality TV shows, just two people with normal, boring, mundane lives.

Needless to say TV3's recent foray into prime-time fly-on-the-wall style reality TV is here to stay. You can debate the quality, but, like The GC, I am confident The Ridges will get ratings. Did I just sit back and watch? Nay (neigh?), I got brainstorming. Today, I present to you short pitches for TV3's next reality show, based around racing.

Race Vets
Medical related reality shows are popular. Animal related reality shows are popular. See where I am heading with this? Camera crews follow a bustling Veterinary clinic in Matamata throughout the racing season dealing with all the ailments which crop up in the racing industry.

Punters
This show will follow three punters over a period of 10 weeks. A grizzly veteran, a young up-and-coming gambler, and a novice with no racing experience (one of them a woman) . Each week our punters will be staked with $10,000, the show will follow the experts analysing the racing and placing bets, while the novice will use a different betting/analysing/staking system each week which they have found in a book or some dark corner of the internet. The show follows the ups and downs of big wins and bad beats.

The George Simon Experience
Who is this mysterious voice of the north? Who generates the dulcet baritone heard throughout the concourses and grandstands of Ellerslie and other northern racing venues? This show follows New Zealand's favourite race caller (or mine at least) as he travels the country in search of the perfect call. The preparation, the home life, the interactions of the daily life of George Simon. It also has great potential for crossovers into TV3's other reality IP such as, GS on the GC (George Simon travels to the GC to call a race meeting at Gold Coast race track), or the Ridges at the Races.

The Centre
Behind the scenes of New Zealand's busiest race track (I don't know if that is a fact, but it will certainly help promote a fictitious TV show). Ellerslie's Event Centre is not only a venue for race meetings, but it is also a function centre hosting a range of events from balls and trade shows, to weddings and gigs. There is a host of possible drama when it comes to staging these events which can be nicely exploited in reality TV. The show will be shot around the 12 weeks leading up to Auckland Cup Week, with all the preparation and organisation for the week itself as well as the other events which take place at Ellerslie racecourse over the summer.

The Apprentice
Probably an unusable working title, we could have a subtitle ":the Jockey edition", I also liked "New Zealand's next top Jockey". This show will bring together 10 wannabe apprentice jockeys and one top racing stable. Each week the potential jockeys will compete in challenges related to racing, riding, and stable life to avoid elimination and hope to gain a position as the next apprentice jockey for the stable.

Yearlings
Karaka, January 2013, the hammer drops, David Ellis has just paid top dollar for another prized yearling. This show will follow the top 5 highest priced yearlings to remain in New Zealand from the Karaka sales as they are trained towards their career as a racehorse. The challenges and the triumphs of the stable as they hope to create another champion.

Well, that wasn't so hard. No wonder production companies like reality TV, you don't require a single original thought to create one. Lets hope someone with some juice is reading this and we can see some of these on our screens next year to save ourselves from Season 2 of The Ridges.

Spring Notes - 9 September 2012

2012-09-10T14:27:00.001+12:00

After digesting a good portion of the racing action from New Zealand and Australia on Saturday I went back and zipped through all of the action again on Sunday to figure out what I learned about some of the major contenders for the big races this Spring. My comments for New Zealand races are a little more thought out, my comments on Australian races are almost exactly what I jotted down as I watched them and replayed them. All price quotes are per the New Zealand TAB.

Auckland

The most notable race was the JRA trophy, this race featured Shez Sinsational and a host of other runners who are likely to show up in feature races in the next few months.

Shez Sinational - 1400m is always going to be slightly shorter than ideal, handicap conditions suited some of her rivals, and the wet track (as we discovered in the Nathan's Memorial) was probably not going to suit. I am not sure we will quite see her at her best in the Windsor, and last year it took her a few starts to get that win. We probably saw the performance we needed to see from her, a battling run in unsuitable conditions, as soon as the races get closer to 2000m she will be a big danger.

Current odds - Windsor Park Plate - $15, Spring Classic $5

Full of Spirit - looked very good when fresh up. She seems to handle all track conditions well, so should be solid over more distance for the rest of the spring. She is not currently nominated for anything in Australia (as far as I can see, but it looks like she will head that way), her only NZ nomination is the Couplands bakery mile in which you would expect her to be a go of chance.

Postmans Daughter - a favourite of mine, one who always seems to keep fighting. She looked positive again over the weekend, possibly faded relative to Full of Spirit over the last 50m but was strong against all others. She had the benefit of a great trip. Looks like another promising season ahead for her.

Current odds - Windsor Park Plate $21 (look for place odds on the day), Spring Classic $14 (Value)

Atom Cat - A year ago he was in the WPP, this year he is not nominated for any of the big features yet, despite the fact the conditions may have assisted him, he finished off this race very strongly despite not getting much luck in the straight.

Carrick - Had to work hard to get into a position to make a run between the 600m and 400m marks, but not that much harder than Full of Spirit worked for her run. He finished off reasonably strongly but possibly faded over the final 150m. He has performed on a slow track in the past, he is possibly looking for more distance (although his two wins have been over 1200m and 1400m). He was only carrying 55kg, this is a bit of a concern heading into a WFA race where he would meet the likes of Postman's Daughter and Shez Sinsational relatively worse off.

Current odds - Windsor - $15 (hard to have), Spring Classic $10 (will have to improve, prefer Postmans Daughter at odds)

3YO's

Tough day to judge them, the track was not great. These conditions are often what we see in Canterbury in November, so it is probably worth taking notes.

Twilight Granita - I loved the run, how much extra ground did she cover? she was racing 4-5 wide at points around the bend. She just kept giving to get there and win. She has been consistent, seems to handle all conditions well, and a step in distance shouldn't hurt.She is nominated for the 1000 guineas, but odds are not yet released.

Kisses - Pretty strong fighting run for second. Not currently nominated, but seems to be the consistent type who is improving with each start.

Hollywood Angel - Horrible start, but she chased them down nicely and showed a strong finish into 6th, she most likely could have won without the bad luck. She is nominated for both Guineas and should be a threat.

Comical Lass - Kept closing into 4th. Seems to perform well on rain effected tracks (which is all she has seen so far).

Hazel - I expected better, she was not really seen. Definitely one to look at on a better track to see how she goes. Should improve 2nd up.

Liberating - Improved with racing before the second in the Matamata Breeders at age two. Looks like she will need a couple of starts this prep before she is at her best.

Ray's Girl - Seemed to keep finishing well after a poor start. Improved with racing last prep, may have been a bit too wet.

Snow Line - Used a bit of energy during the run, but I didn't see any justification for the pre-race price.

Warhorse - I am happy to forgive the favourite and suggest that he didn't handle the conditions when he faded late. He was 6th in the Wentwood Grange before winning a Group 3 last year, so I think we will see him improve into his next start.

Move Faster - I liked the late run of Swiper the Fox, but these two were basically side by side on the bend. Swiper the Fox unwound late, Move Faster accelerated consistently to win nicely. Move faster is yet to see a good track, but looks to be one to keep an eye on throughout the spring.

Batman - Didn't get the best trip, but ran home well living up to the trial form.

Swiper the Fox - Big finishing burst, had to work around the bend, will be stronger over more grounds. I think the conditions suited him.

Freedom - Worked hard to find a place to settle, but did find a handy position. Didn't show much at the finish, probably related to the conditions.

Hayleys Comet - Was far off them when he got a chance to run, but he did seem to come home pretty well, probably not the worst effort on display.

Australia - Sydney

Ming Dynasty
Magic Shaft - Didn't get a lot of luck, wide and probably over raced slightly before fading towards the end. Will need to improve to figure over 2000m. Probably hurt by 59kg in handicap conditions.

Current Odds - Spring Championship Stakes $31
Also Nominated - Caulfield Guineas

Overall I liked what I saw from all of the first 5 finishers, certainly the winner Tatra looked good and carried 58.5kg, and Honorius had a pretty strong finish into Third.

Current Odds
Spring Championship Stake
Tatra $9
Honorius $14
Proverb $14
Rowie $18
Sumarand $18

Golden Rose
Sumarand $41

Chelmsford Stakes
Danleigh was great in winning, and Secret admirer was a strong second. Lights of heaven didn't seem to do a lot, but will improve over more distance and in handicap conditions. Maules Creek showed a decent finish into 5th.

Current odds
Danleigh - Epsom $21 (Hard to have in a Handicap)
Secret Admirer - Epsom $11, Caulfield Cup $41, Cox Plate $21
Lights of Heaven - The Metropolitan $16, Caulfield Cup $31, Cox Plate $51, Melbourne Cup $51
Maules Creek - The Metropolitan $31, Caulfield Cup $101

Furious Stakes
Pussy Willow - Didn't seem like a great run, she was probably hurt by the pace and never really got into the race.

The first three (Dear Demi, Meidung, and Jade Marauder) all comfortably pulled away from the field, and looked good in their relative positions. Dear Demi won reasonably well, but all three impressed.

Current Odds
Pussy Willow - Nominated 1000 Guineas, will need to improve
Dear Demi - Golden Rose $26
Meidung - Golden Rose $26
Jade Marauder - - Golden Rose $26

Last at Sydney
Quintessenial - As good as a last can be (actually finished second last), certainly didn't get all the favours in the running and probably faded when he got blocked going for a run. I would forgive this run and look for value next start over more distance.
Epsom -$51
Caulfield Cup - $31
Melbourne Cup - $101

Australia - Melbourne
Lets Elope
Zurella - Awesome performance. She really had to fight hard for a run, and looked great when she got one. 55kg under handicap conditions, but as the races get harder she might not take too much of a penalty relative to the other runners she will face. Despite her second in the Oaks and strong Derby run, I felt that the 1400-1600m range was always her most suited distance. I expect she is probably heading to a Caulfield Cup, but she could also prove dangerous in a Myer Classic or Emirates Mile type race.

(Miss) Artistic - Not much between the Ritchie stablemates in the Oaks, but Artistic won, then had some success in Queensland and ended up carrying far more weight over the weekend. Still it was a pretty good performance. She will get better over more ground.

Hi Belle, kept on fighting into second. Lady Melksham fought well into fifth. Yosei unwound fairly late to beat Artistic and finish 6th.

Zurella - Caulfield Cup $31, Melbourne Cup $41
Artistic - Caulfield Cup $61 (good odds, she will improve), Melbourne Cup $101
Yosei - Caulfield Cup $151, Epsom $16, Cox Plate $101

Danehill Stakes
Snitzerland has an awesome name and was very impressive pulling away for victory after struggling for a run. Thought the first three were all pretty good and Swift Exit finished strongly for 5th at big odds.

Makybe Diva
The pace looked a little slow, but it was still an impressive win by Southern Speed to hold out the fast finishing Manighar. Lots of contenders here, the most notable Moudre running well and finishing third. December Draw was possibly a little unlucky, but ran on reasonably well. Efficient travelled wide and just didn't have a lot of finish. Moyuran picked up with pace over the last 100m. Dance With Her finished well late. Second Effort looked very good late coming from wide on the track (I think, I cant read my notes here).
The ones I would watch most closely are probably ones you already know to watch Manighar, Southern Speed, and I would like to see the improvement Second Effort takes from this.

Current Odds
December Draw- Caulfield Cup $26, Melbourne Cup $21, Cox Plate $26
Dance With Her - The Metropolitan $61, Caulfield Cup $101, Melbourne Cup $81
Efficient - The Metropolitan $21 (hard to recommend, will improve over more distance), Caulfield Cup $51, Melbourne Cup $41, Cox Plate $81
Manighar - Caulfield Cup $18, Melbourne Cup $26, Cox Plate $14
Moudre - Caulfield Cup $21, Melbourne Cup $31, Cox Plate $51
Moyuran - The Metropolitan $26, Caulfield Cup $41, Melbourne Cup $51, Cox Plate $101
Southern Speed - Caulfield Cup $18, Melbourne Cup $26, Cox Plate $21

Bobbie Lewis Quality
I think Anabandana is done, I was actually surprised to see her racing, I thought she had retired last year.
Mosheen will be better over more distance.

Sofitel Handicap
I thought the winner Excluded won very well and was pretty happy with what I saw from the first three (Exceptionally and Prizum).
Innocent Lady - was pretty average, she just faded on the bend.
The Jungle Boy - Had a very nice run, but didn't show much when it was time to really race.
Single Minded - Probably lasted 100m more than Innocent Lady. Will improve with more distance.

Current Odds
Excluded - The Metropolitan $18, Caulfield Cup $21, Melbourne Cup $51
Exceptionally - Melbourne Cup $61
Single Minded - Caulfield Cup $21, Melbourne Cup $81 (certainly capable if makes the field)

What have we learned this Spring? (1st Edition)

2012-09-03T10:58:00.001+12:00

It is springtime, you wouldn't know it if you looked out the window, but trust me it is. Spring racing is underway, and with big races ahead it is important to look back and reflect on what we saw on the weekend.

Ocean Park

Seems like the logical place to start. The best thing about the stunning performance on Saturday is that he probably had excuses as to why it was not his best performance, he should improve from this point as well. At Hastings on the weekend most winners were coming from the front part of the field and not a lot were making up ground from the back, while OP didn't drop back as far as he has in past runners from his handy draw, he made ground to win with a stunning turn of foot. He will be better over more distance, he will be better on good ground. It was a great ride from Lisa Allpress and he didn't get all the favours in the straight. He will improve.

Current Odds
Cox Plate $14; Caulfield Cup $16

Mufhasa

Not sure what to make from his performance, he came into a very strong favourite before the start. Khemosabi challenged him and he faded over the last 100m or so. I did notice that Sam Spratt dropped her whip at some point in the straight, it is hard to make out on the replay on the NZ Racing site. It is impossible to know if it made a difference, but I cannot imagine it helped. I am sure we are not done with Mufhasa in Group 1's and make sure to keep him safe over 1600m in the Windsor Park Plate.

Current Odds
Windsor Park Plate $5

Xanadu

Another eye catching finish and another who should improve with more distance and from that run. She is a big strong 4YO mare who almost certainly must have Australian aspirations. She was another who came from deep to perform against the way most runners were performing on the day. She has already had strong form over 1600m and it would not surprise to see her win over 2000m, she is very capable of winning the Winsor Park Plate and/or Spring Classic.

Current Odds
Windsor Park Plate $5; Spring Classic $5

Justanexcuse

So close to the upset on the weekend, a great ride and good tactics almost got him there. 1600m has been a tough distance for him since October last year, with most attempts against Group 1 level competition. It was a good performance, but it would be surprising to see him go two better in the Windsor.

Current Odds
Windsor Park Plate $21

Guiseppina

Another encouraging performance. She came at them late to finish fifth. Her best results have all been between 1200-1400m but she is capable at 1600m. Are the connections looking at another trip to Australia this spring? A good performance in the Windsor may be needed if we are to consider her better than the 15th in last years Myer Classic.

Current Odds
Windsor Park Plate $7

Time Keeper

Wins generally have come after 10 starts, he out performed his expectations but it would surprise for him to show up like that again in two weeks.

Current Odds
Windsor Park Plate $41: Spring Classic $41

Green Supreme

Had a fairly sweet trip for a runner who was 3 wide, the cover from Baby Guinness was important. You are probably going to like him more over 1600m and even more over 2000m, so the fast finish was important, a good track may have seen him closer. There is a lot to like moving forward and he may even offer some value in the Windsor as Xanadu, Mufhasa, and Guiseppina attract attention.

Current Odds
Windsor $7; Spring Classic $5

Fleur de Lune

Probably didn't live up to expectations, but possibly didn't get the smooth trip you might have expected from that draw. It looked like she was blocked a couple of times in the straight just as she was trying to make her run, hard to know how much it hurt her performance, but it did get a mention in the Stewards report. I am not sure she is better suited to 1600m, but she is certainly capable.

Windsor $15; Classic $31

He's Remarkable

He has now had 3 straight performances to forget, but the last two have been on dead tracks, and Saturday's was upgraded from Slow not long before the race. 1600m is where he will be at his best, so he is worthy of another look. With a couple of trips to Aussie under his belt it would not be unexpected to see a return, but I cannot imagine the Cox Plate as a realistic location based off that performance.

Windsor $8; Classic $10; Cox Plate $101

3YO's

I certainly liked what I saw from Kate over 1200m in the first from the bay. It looks like she has improved from age 2 and won a tough race. Dorian Grey came home well into second which was worth noting, It will be interesting to see these two again. In Tauranga Kate's stablemate Perfect Start made a perfect start to her racing career winning while making up a lot of ground on the straight.

Civics Rock/Villify

Also at Tauranga Civics Rock was very impressive finishing off strongly to dominate a small field with some talent. Villify will need to take a lot of improvement from that run to feature in the Windsor, 1600m is certainly more suitable and he did finish reasonably strongly, still $13 seems a little short.

Windsor $13 (Villify)

Back In Black

A strong win over 1600m, he seems to go well in Hastings at this time of year, 2000m should suit, but he was fairly inconsistent last year. Still at $41 in the Spring classic he is certainly not the worst on offer, I imagine he will have a run on the Second day, so he is one to watch.

Spring Classic $41

No Excuse Maggie/Smoulder/Platinum Passion/Intransigent

Not a whole lot to write home about from this Group 1 nominated bunch. Intransigent had to do too much work. No Excuse Maggie seemed a bit keen, but got a good trip. Platinum Passion had a sweet trip and ran on a bit. Smoulder ran home well. We probably wanted to see a bit more from this bunch of runners if they are going to go on to have Group 1 success. The eye-catching performance was from Amberio who has been quietly successful over the past 12 months plus, she is one to look out for next start.

Current Odds
Windsor
No Excuse Maggie $41
Smoulder $61

Spring Classic
Intransigent $101
Platinum Passion $101

Two more winners who were very good on the day were Papilo and The Knight. No idea where they may be heading, but it is worth having a look when you see them.

Quick Aussie Notes
How long will Pierro remain undefeated and how many Group 1's will he win in Melbourne this Spring? last seasons star 2YO continued his winning streak on route to the Caulfield Guineas and possibly the Cox Plate. He was challenged by Your Song who was impressive, and also beat All Too Hard who missed 3rd by a head bob and finished 5th. All Too Hard and Pierro no longer have a rivalry, Pierro is established as clearly superior.

Current Odds
Golden Rose
All Too Hard $7.50
Your Song $9 (might be unlikely to start I think I heard on Saturday, so do your research)
Epaulette $9
Ninth Legion $16

Cox Plate
All Too Hard $51
Pierro $6

Glencadam Gold won over 1800m against a range of cups possibles, but hard to read too much into it this far out. If you liked it there are still very good odds available for both big cups.

In Melbourne Sincero won the Memsie Stakes. I always look at this as the first race to consider as runners build to the big three. Sincero was very strong in Sydney last spring before heading to Melbourne and probably been a bit outclassed, this looks like a sign of improvement. This was a pretty Strong field which included Green Moon (2nd 2011 Caulfield Cup), Wall Street, Maluckyday (2010 2nd Melbourne Cup, Lexus winner), Heart of Dreams (Group 1 winner, second in Memsie last year), Rekindled Interest (3rd Mackinnon and Cox Plate last year), Niwot (Lexus winner 2011, Sydney Cup winner 2012), Sanagas (nothing to see here just yet), and Midas Touch (3rd Underwood, 3rd Makybe Diva last year). There is a lot to consider from that race.

Current Odds
Sincero - Cox Plate $16, Caulfield Cup $41
Green Moon - Cox Plate $21, Caulfield Cup $14, Melbourne Cup (pre noms) $18
Wall Street - Cox Plate $101, CC $81
Maluckyday - Cox Plate $81, CC $31, MC $26
Heart of Dreams - CP $101
Rekindled Interest - CP $12
Niwot - CP $151, CC $41, MC $41
Sanagas - CP $101, CC $51, MC $51
Midas Touch - CP $201, CC $61, MC $81

Probably not a lot to worry about just yet, but good to monitor.

Makfi Challenge Stakes Preview

2012-08-31T10:39:00.000+12:00

Wow, the first Group 1 of the Season, does this feel early to you? where has the winter gone. September 1 is actually slightly later than it has been over the past few years, last time the race was in the month of September was back in 2007 when Seachange won the second of her two back-to-back Mudgway's (as it was then known), can Mufhasa defend his title 5 years to the day?

There are a lot of unknowns at this point in the season, who will come back strong from a winter off? who will continue their winter form into this higher level of racing? which 4 year old is going to step up and build on their 3YO form? and are we going to see the same old vintage Mufhasa? if we are this race may already be over. Looking at the odds on offer $4.40, the TAB is unsure what to expect. They are almost as uncertain as the rain forecast over these next few days.

This race has been won by fairly favoured runners over the past handful of years, the only blowout winner was Tavistock in 2009 at over $40, the only other double digit winner since the Seachange's first win in 2006 was Keep The Peace, she was probably better than that and went on to win other Group 1's, so I think it was worth keeping the favourites pretty safe.

#1 Mufhasa (5)

He is now age 8 and will be having his 51st start, I don't think we need to spend a lot of time going into his vast and impressive resume. I think you could easily argue that not only was Mufhasa the New Zealand horse of the year for the 2011/12 year, but that it was the finest year of his career. He has been so good and consistent since this race last year that I don't even know where you would start to search for a reason not to include him.

#2 Justanexcuse (6)

Seemed to tire over the second half of his campaign last year. Has been back for one start and should be better for it, he has a pretty good 2nd up record. Wins last year did not really come against this level of competition but all came at this distance and two at or above 59kg. Hard to include, but possibly a bit of value at $26 currently.

#3 Fritzy Boy (13)

The second former winner of this race in the field. He was off for almost a year when he returned strongly at Waikato recently. I thought that run showed some heart, and he may find himself in a similar position from a wide barrier this week. He always seems to go well in this set of races, 5th last year in this race. He will also go well with a bit of rain. Not a lot of recent form to go on, but if you consider a $15 winner to be an upset he might be the best chance of an upset in this race, except...

#4 Green Supreme (3)

... is paying the same as Fritzy Boy at this point.

There was a lot to like about the season of Green Supreme last year, he effectively returned from overseas racing in 2010 at rating 70 and by the end of the year was racing at Group 1 Level with a rating around 100.
I am still not sure what this horse is, forget the Wellington Cup start, will we see him work his way up to that distance this year? the win over 1400m at Awapuni was great, the finish in the Easter was strong. He will likely start slowly from barrier 3 and sprint for home. He won twice on a slow track last year so I am not sure what the concern is.

#5 I am Sam (2)

Could be a real opportunist here with wet weather. He has had strong winter form and performs best over 1400m. This class is a big test, and I am not sure it is one he is capable of passing, but maybe one to include in multiples if it is very wet.

#6 The Hombre (8)

He was very competitive last year, including a narrow loss at Group 1 victory. He has had one run back, he was not as strong as we have come to expect first up, I am happy to put that down to the track and give him another chance 2nd up, where he has been consistently strong. This is a test, but 1400m at Hawkes Bay suits the John Bary trained runner, if the rain stays away I am sure you will see him shorter than the $26 currently on offer.

#7 He's Remarkable (17)

Another to win a Group 1 in Australia last year. What? oh, that's right, shhhh.
His Autumn in Sydney was not as successful as his Spring in Aussie, but he is definitely capable in this class. He won on this track last year before leaving for Melbourne and will be looking to do the same this year. He is far less remarkable in the wet, but not terrible. He suffered from a string of wide draws at age 3 but was lucky last year in that area, barrier 17 could prove difficult.

#8 Time Keeper (12)

He is usually pretty consistent. He is a Group 1 Winner, but that was carrying very little at handicap conditions.He should be fit for running through the winter, all of his wins have come after ten starts other than his one this campaign. His best results have been on good tracks, but I would expect to see him race in any conditions. This might be a big ask for Sir Slick 2.0.

#9 Khemosabi (14)

Solid throughout the winter, but this is much harder. Will be racing at his favoured distance, and will be hoping for rain. Has risen through the ranks but WFA conditions rule him out this time.

#10 Ocean Park (4)

Despite the wraps on him prior to pulling out of the derby last year, and the strong performance in his Guineas second place at Rosehill I am still not sure what to make of the second favourite.
What can we say from his record? He is consistent, he has never won (or started) at 1400m, his one start on a slow track was not his best (albeit against very tough competition), he is drawn well (but hasn't really made the most of strong draws in the past, generally still overpowering fields). The main question is really around the 1400m, is this what he is aiming for, or will be be better with a couple of starts over more distance? He is talented and you have to give him a chance, maybe the domination of the Wellington Stakes is the race to go back and watch, but this is tougher and I am not sure I would take him at $4.60, but I certainly don't have the guts to leave him off the podium.

#11 Fleur de Lune (1)

Might she have finally found the form to get that Group 1 victory? four Group1 placings, including 3rd in this race last year. 1400m is ideal and she could have possibly improved from the Foxbridge run. It is hard to question her on any surface. Considering the runners between her and Mufhasa in 5 she should get a very sweet trip in behind a likely leader. If I had major concerns over Mufhasa this is where I would be looking.

#12 Guiseppina (17)

She had a great year last year, and will look to build on that this year. Always solid first up but usually better second up, she will need good ground to show her best. She is good under WFA conditions and will probably be running home well, she won a Group 1 last year from barrier 18, so don't rule her out on the draw.

#13 Art Beat (10)

Has to be considered on a wet track, but will the track improve too much and hurt her chances. I always liked this runner and she is coming off the biggest win of her career. She has had more success under handicap conditions and this just looks too tough.

#14 No Excuse Maggie (15)

Another local, who enjoys this distance and would be a chance if the track remains moist. She does tend to win after a few runs as evidenced by her performance last start at Otaki. She has not been as strong in conditions with a set weight. Her one Group 1 outing last year was solid, but there is a difference in class. The draw is not really a concern, she should be handy and able to get across relatively easy on Saturday.

#15 Innovation (18)

Rose quickly through the grades with good success over the winter, but didn't really match it with the classier 3YO's early in that year. None of those wins are really comparable to this race and the impressive winter cup was still under handicap conditions. She will be better off than some as a 4YO mare at 56.5kg, and another who is more likeable if the track remains slow, but there are others I prefer more...

#16 Xanadu (10)

... such as another 4YO mare, one which should be far more preferred. A heap of merit from the run in the Waikato, although she had won on a slow track she looked to get through that ground very nicely. 200m further will suit. A Group 1 3rd only four months ago, but she will carry an extra 2kg as a 4YO Saturday. She was great early at age 3 and could go well to start off her 4YO campaign.

#17 Baby Guinness (9)

She is a possible starter. I just wanted to quickly comment that I thought the run in the tron was actually pretty good, she looked to run on well into 5th then fade over the last 50m. That was the first start since the summer and she probably needed it after over-racing throughout. I don't think she is up to this class, but she is a solid performer who might be interesting in multiples.

The Picks

Winner: Mufhasa - If this race was run in April he would have been the clear favourite, I don't really see what has changed.
Second: Fleur de Lune - I actually like her for second, but I am worried about the FdL tax, this little known rule of nature which states she must never quite live up to expectations.
Third: Ocean Park - I really don't know, I don't think he is as good as Jimmy Choux was coming into this last year, and feel like 1600m will be better, but he is hard to leave out.
Fourth: The Hombre - I went back and forth with He's Remarkable and Green Supreme for this spot. I think the track will improve, but maybe not quite enough for the other two.

Picking 6 this weekend at Te Rapa

2012-04-27T13:00:00.000+12:00

What is it about raining Thursdays or Fridays this year? It makes it very difficult to make any kind of predictions about what might happen with remaining uncertainty over the potential track conditions. This time of year we see the return of a lot of winter runners, as well as summer runners finishing their run so it does really make a difference.

On initial glance this is a very difficult week to pick six, but with $250,000 on the table it is probably worth a shot.

Leg 1 - Race 4 - Rating 75 1200m

Hard to not include

#1 - A Keepa
Reason to Include
The most experienced 1200m horse in the field. Very close last time for fourth, steps back in rating and will have to carry more weight. Is consistent and well drawn.
Reason to leave out
The weight will be a factor, and the record at Te Rapa is also suspect, however has not run there since July and August of 2010, so there has been some time, overall he does seem to perform slightly better going right handed.

#2 - Baldovino
Reason to Include
He goes well fresh winning his first three starts before stepping up to Group 1 level earlier this season. Any rain should help improve his performance. The step back in class should suit, and the Te Rapa record is sound. The weight should not concern.

Reason to Leave out
Was early this season a flash in the pan?

#6 - Tango Terrific
Reason to include
Back after over a month off, that is a state in which he has performed well in the past. His last start was at rating 85 over 1400m at Ellerslie, he finished 7th, but he fought on well and really only faded over the last 150m. Has won over the distance.
Reason to leave out
Back in class so will carry significant more weight, he has only ever carried 58kg once for 7th. Has not run left handed a lot throughout his career.

Consider Including

#8 Lucy in Disguise
Reason to include
Super consistent runner. Will go well with a bit of moisture around. 3rd up, has won after a few starts before so should be ready. Last start winner who looked good in that race. 1200 record is strong.
Reason to leave out
This is tougher than the last victory, he will also carry an extra 2kg. She seems to have shown a lot of improvement into this preparation, so it is interesting to see if that will continue. Drawn barrier 15, not the best starter so could have a bit of extra work to do in this company.

#12 - Street Party
Reason to include
Was unlucky stepping up last start, was racing up in class prior to this. Back to 1200m which is an ideal distance and is well weighted here.
Reason to leave out
Barrier 19 will make things tough, she was drawn 14 four starts back and it was not ideal, so she may struggle here. The rain may make things difficult.

#14 - Cap Eden Roc
Reason to include
The overall record stands out, good over the distance, and if the surface is dead she has performed well.
Reason to leave out
Has struggled stepping up in class, she might be well backed but struggle here.

#3 - Prince of Wales
Reasons to Include
Will have his first start since boxing day 2010, he always goes well fresh. A very consistent runner, only once out of the first four. Should go well over 1200m although will potentially be searching for more distance.
Reason to leave out
A question over the long lay out, I also question the amount of weight he might carry here. Draw may make things a bit tough.

#9 - Sateka
Reasons to include
A well weighted mare who has been in good form recently.
Reason to leave out
This looks a big step up, this race contains some tough competition.

Leg 2 - Race 5 - 3YO Group 3 - 1200m

Hard not to include

#2 - Burgundy
Reason to include
A lot has been said about the win in the Mr Tiz Trophy last start, 1200m is going to suit this very classy runner. Possible anchor who wont worry about the conditions and is drawn to get an ideal run. He could overpower them.
Reason not to include
Watch the last start of Ginner Hart again, while that is not a reason not to include, it is a reason he may not be the perfect Anchor. He has been well backed a lot of times and not always proved himself worthy of the hype.

#1 - Ginner Hart
Reason to include
Was close to flawless last week against a tough field of more experienced runners. Dropping back to 1200m has suited well, he will handle all conditions well.
Reason not to include
He will carry the same set weight here, that is 3.5kg more than last week. You have to go back to early starts as a 2YO and 3YO since he has carried that and looked good.

Consider Including

#9 - Holy Moly
Reason to include
One of the best non winning performances of the year was her 3rd here in October, that was to Antonio Lombardo and Anabandana, while beating Artistic, Chicarita and Caiprinha. That was a long time ago, but she is classy at best. She has shown some of that in her last two starts. It looks like another run over 1200m will suit.
Reason to leave out
She tailed off quickly after a good start to the season against tougher competition.

#5 Golden Globe
Reason to include
Has been super consistent in a limited number of starts but has displayed potential. He has been freshened since November and has won in that state before. Looks like a pure sprinter and will not mind any rain.
Reason to Leave out
This seems like a step up in class, he will face some accomplished runners this weekend. Drawn wide, but will push forward so may negate that.

#3 Precision King
Reason to include
As consistent as he has been he has looked really good over his last couple of starts. He has been great over 1200m and on left handed tracks. He will handle the ground well.
Reason to leave out
He has seemed to get some interference or maybe just not started well the last couple of times from similar draws, he might try to push forward, but it looks like there are a few speedy runners which could make this a challenging task.

#4 - Casting Stones
Reason to include
Has won last two starts, consistent before that, looks like 1200m is ideal.
Reason to leave out
Drawn wide, is taking a step up in class, was pretty handily beaten he took on some of the better 3YO's in December and this is tougher.

Leg 3 - Race 6 - Open Handicap - 1600m

Hard to Leave out

#2 Alegrio
Reason to include
He didn't disappoint stepping up to Group 1 level with a solid and close 8th. 1600m is his best distance and he does go well at Te Rapa with a couple of wins.
Reason to leave out
The start before the Easter Handicap was less impressive, he will carry an extra 2kg here because of the relative drop in quality. Consistent early this year and has tailed off a bit, however has previously won several races after a number of starts.

#7 - Sum Up
Reason to include
Two races of note, the 6th in the Easter Handicap was strong, and the second in the Waikato Times Gold Cup was also notable.
Reason to leave out
There is a case to be made that more distance would better suit, however in this company over 1600m I think he will go well. The wide draw may concern, he has been pretty lucky with draws recently.

Consider Including

#1 - Indikator
Reason to include
Wasn't terrible when 8th second up last time, however he has won 5 times 3rd or 4th up, so he should be ready for this. 1600m is a distance he has won on and he showed it with a good finish last time. He will suit any track conditions.
Reason to leave out
He is probably searching for a bit more distance, he has not won over less than 2000m for some time now.

#3 Atom Cat
Reason to include
9th behind Alegrio in the Easter, but there was a gap. He might have had and excuse, he did come for them late, in a smaller field he may have ran closer. He will like some give in the track and has won 3rd up a couple of times. I thought he might give some cheek last time, maybe this is the time to watch out.
Reason to leave out
It has been a while between drinks, he has not been great of late. It feels like he should be racing in this class, but he has not been winning.

#5 Worthing
Reason to include
I always like a runner who performs of a track even when things are not going as well elsewhere. He was in better form the last couple of Te Rapa runs before the failure here this prep.
Reason to leave out

He has not been in the best form, you would be taking purely because of his preference for the track.

#15 Time Keeper
Reason to include
The run on Wednesday was very strong. Not sure if we can expect to see a run or not, but I suspect you may have to include if we do. Has won 3 in a row before, but each had a two week break.
Reason to leave out
This is a horse who gets better with running, but two in 4 days? and for a $40k Open race, what is the point? It will be interesting to see how Sir Slick 2.0 goes. By my count he has run 13 times with as little as a week between runs (5 weeks in a row at one point), he has only won 1 of those races.

Leg 4 - Race 7 - 3YO - 2000m (You are very happy if you are still alive right now)

Hard to Leave out

#3 Post D'France
Reason to include
Looks a great staying prospect as he has built to a strong win last start. This is slightly tougher, but he has always ran on well enough to indicate that 2000m+ is suitable.
Reason to leave out
Has not really been as consistent and this step up in class may be a concern.

#2 Red Shift
Reason to include
He has been freshened since decent performance in the Derby, back to 2000m and back in class, at a distance which would appear to suit against runners who are at his level. Now with Roger James who is having an outstanding run. One of those runners who always looks good before races, he is big and strong and should get better.
Reason to leave out
You could argue he is impossible to leave out. If you are going to leave him out possibly look to the 7th two starts back.

Consider including

#1 Dowager Queen
Reason to include
This consistent filly has been good without been outstanding since her return from Melbourne. She was freshened slightly before her last start and is now building up to more suitable distances. She will come for them and hit the line well, she will handle moisture in the track.
Reason to leave out
Leave out if you are not sure of the recent form. If you took away what she did in Melbourne she is probably hard to have here.

#7 Ryan John
Reason to include
Still a maiden, but probably improved for the 2000m start, that was actually at a higher grade, so he should be more suited to this. Pretty decent third on the track last start, locally trained.
Reason to leave out
Maiden runner, dead track may have concerned two starts back.

#9 Vittoria
Reason to include
Fourth in the Oaks in Victoria shows ability, she should improve with a couple of runs and more distance. The 9th last start was only 3 lengths back, not too bad.
Reason to leave out
Is a three length loss at rating 75 enough evidence that she will improve enough to win this, I am not so sure.

#6 Tiberius
Reason to include
Looks like an improving runner who will be suited to the rise in distance.
Reason to leave out
The rise in class might be the concern.

Leg 5 - Race 8 - F&M WFA Group 2 - 2000m (excitement building if you are still alive)

Hard to leave out

#1 Postmans Daughter
Reason to include
My pro Postmans Daughter bias will be exposed here, but I think she has been great all year. She proved it in the Easter, 1600m was short of ideal and she impressed for a very close second.2000m should be ideal. She has had two fourths at Open WFA level over this distance, both times beaten by the boys and Shez Sinsational/Scarlett Lady
Reason to leave out
While she was not far off at Te Aorah I thought she might be due for a break then she showed up in the Easter, but that was under a very light weight.

#3 Lady Kipling
Reason to include
Has beaten Postmans Daughter under these conditions. Not last time, but at Boxing day. Beat PD last start at equal weight over 1600m. 2000m is going to suit.Good record at Te Rapa.
Reason to leave out
Although capable, she has never won past 1600m.

Consider including

#16 Joy's Choice
Reason to include
3YO runners in WFA conditions are certainly tempting. She has looked good this year and has improved over more distance. 5th in the Oaks, and two good runs prior to that over 2000 and 2100m. She also seems to like Te Rapa

Reason to leave out
Despite going close a few times she has not won at this type of level. This is tough against the older runners.

#2 Floria
Reasons to include
Handled WFA conditions well when 6th in the Group 1. This is similar but longer. The added distance shouldn't be a massive issue.
Reasons to leave out
The race is quite similar to other races which have not resulted in success.

#5 Villify
Reason to include
I like more in the rain, but she looks like the step up to 2000m may be suitable. She has won here and the draw will be ideal.
Reason to leave out
Still looks more suitable to handicap conditions a this stage.

#9 Mini Pearl
Reason to include
Probably would not have been this high on her before her last start, however that was a pretty good win over this distance against decent competition. Seemed to be building well towards that point and scored a good victory.
Reason to leave out
Seems to be best on good tracks, and this is a big step up from recent starts.

Leg 6 - Race 9 - Rating 75 - 2400m

Hard to leave out

#7 Manhattan Mam
Reason to include
On the strength of that last victory. Was pretty good in the Oaks and has carried on well. More distance should suit.
Reason to leave out
Yet to succeed left handed. Both wins have been on good tracks.

Consider including

#4 Gold Cape
Reason to include
Dropping back in class from a good 4th in a strong race over 2000m where she fought well. 2400m looks like a distance which will be suitable.
Reason to leave out
Yet to win over 2400m and will actually carry more weight than last start here.

#8 Bob Valdez
Reason to include
Strong winner here two starts ago, looked like there was more to give. Has been pretty consistent if you throw out the wet track results.
Reason to leave out
If the track is worse than dead or if it has been chopped up by this late race (of course you will have already made this bet by then)

#3 Stingray
Reason to include
Consistent, beat Bob Valdez last time out. Has recently shown strong finishes, 2400m should suit.
Reason to leave out
Stepping up in grade, distance, and not really getting a lot of weight relief.

#5 Runaway Bride
Reason to include
Look at the odds she has paid this prep, even after winning 2 in a row she was still paying massive odds, she looks like one who is always over looked. 2400m should suit now.
Reason to leave out
Leave out if you don't believe this current form swing, she has been overlooked a lot recently.

How to play

It is a tough Pick 6 because there is no clear anchor, there are not even many legs where taking two would feel comfortable. Look at the last leg, what a mess, so I guess you have to consider weather you take a risk early and end up with five runners in the last leg, however there is no reason to have five runners when you are knocked out in the second leg.

Leg 1 - 1,2,6,8
Leg 2 - 1,2
Leg 3 - 2,7,1
Leg 4 - 2,3,7
Leg 5 - 1,3
Leg 6 - 7,4

That is 288 combinations, so maybe one to get together with some mates to try to get a percentage of it. If you want to go cheaper I would consider going only number 7 in the last as it is the anchor I am most comfortable with. I possibly would leave out number 7 in the fourth leg as well (or number 1 in the third), that would leave you with 96 combinations. I think we could get close to another jackpot for next week.

April Edition 3YO Power Rankings

2012-04-20T10:35:00.000+12:00

I wanted to wait for the Australian Derby before preparing this version of the power rankings in the hope that there was not question over number one, despite a strong effort Silent Achiever ran a close up 6th. That looked like a two horse race heading in but Laser Hawk finished third. That may be the end of the season for the New Zealand Derby winner, she will have earned a rest whenever that comes and I look forward to seeing her again in the Spring.

Roger James would have been disappointed with that result. I am sure that he, like many others, thought she had what it took to win that race, however the day was not bad overall for Roger James as he uncovered a potential Oaks contender with Full of Spirit getting it done at Group 3 level with James McDonald on board in the 2000m Patinak Farm Adrian Knox Stakes. Full of Spirit is currently second favourite in a small field for this weekends Australian Oaks. The 3YO daughter of Flying Spur has come out of the woodwork recently, after winning on debut, she finished 7th in both the 1000 Guineas and the strong Eight Carat Classic, and continued to improve before winning her last start before the trip to Sydney.

The last edition of the Power Rankings came out following the Derby, but prior to the Oaks. Given the strength of that race it should have and effect on these rankings. We should also get a good sight of some of these runners over the Winter as it has been confirmed that at least Artistic, and Nashville will be heading to Queensland, and likely other top contenders too.

Power Rankings
Dropped from Rankings:
Knights Tour (7), Antonio Lombardo (10)

Honourable Mention
Chicharita (HM, I see she is in Australia, it will be interesting to see how she goes), Knight's Tour (7, hopefully he ends up in Australia, I know I read about that as a potential plan when he first injured himself), Capital Diamond (HM), Xanadu, Duckworth Lewis (HM), Travolta (HM), Joy's Choice(HM), Nashville (HM, and another off to Australia), Shuka (HM, always HM), St Yazin, Poste Restante, Glad (HM)

Number 10 - Quintessential (HM) - Toss up between this filly and Xanadu for this last spot. Both were third in a Group 1 last start, both races included impressive fields, but I think her performance in the Oaks and overall season is just stronger.

Number 9 - Burgundy (7) - Really looking forward to seeing him when he next races. I think he has now found his niche around the sprint distances. He has all the talent as we saw early in his career and hopefully he will continue to improve at age 4.

Number 8 - Full of Spirit (N/A) - A bit of hype around this runner, a Group 3 in Australia is an accomplishment, she will really climb these chats with a win in the Oaks.

Number 7 - Carrick (5) - I have not read what the plan is for this Derby place getter, I don't see him on the list of exported horses, so I assume he is having some time off in New Zealand at this point.

Number 6 - Planet Rock (3) - Still not sure the Jockey change for the Oaks was the wisest choice, however I do feel that she was somewhat unlucky in that race and had to expend all of that energy early.

Number 5 - Rock'n'Pop (2) - I look forward to seeing him continue at age four in Australia. He looks such a strong colt, I am not quite sure what his niche will be because he has shown so much talent over all distances so far.

Number 4 - Ocean Park (9) - Unlucky year, was the derby favourite until withdrawal because of track uncertainty. Backed up that decision with a bold second in Sydney only to strike more bad luck leading into the Australian Derby. He appears a very strong 3YO and will possibly continue to age four. Not sure what his targets might be but I imagine he can put on a show in a race like the Windsor Park Plate over 1600m if he ends up there.

Number 3 - Zurella (4) - Out performed my expectations in the Oaks, but combined with a strong derby she is well deserving of a position this high on this list.

Number 2 - Artistic (6) - What is a bigger accomplishment, winning the Oaks or running second in a Group 1 in Australia? I already had her ahead of Ocean Park so she deserves to stay here. She has really built well over the season, she has been super consistent, and she seems to be getting better over more distance, she will be a threat in Queensland.

Number 1 - Silent Achiever (1) - A strong third in the Rosehill Guineas where I feel she was actually a tad unlucky in the big field they assembled. Her 6th in the Australian Guineas is disappointing from the perspective that she was favourite, but ordinarily is still an achievement (didn't Jimmy Choux run 6th in that race last year?)

Can Jimmy Choux win the Easter Handicap?

2012-04-12T13:11:00.000+12:00

We approach the final Group 1 of the season with the same favourite as we approached the first Group 1 of the season. Veyron has had a great year, but if he was to carry the same weight as Jimmy Choux I don't think this would be a debate, Green Supreme was great a couple of weeks ago but is not yet at the class of these other two. The handicap conditions make this race very competitive and as you scroll down the list of nominees you see a lot of runners at their respective weight who can be competitive. The draw has made this race interesting, as had the threat of rain (I am going to try to avoid making a weather prediction this week, as most weeks I am wrong).

All things been equal Jimmy Choux wins this race. Critics will point to his first up record, but his last fresh start was a close second behind Mufhasa at Group 1 level, this fresh start may be slightly different because of his upcoming trip to Australia and this may be just a run to shake off the cobwebs and get him ready for those races. I don't think any ground will be an issue for Jimmy Choux, he has drawn 10, which is not a concern.

Veyron has had a great year, he will carry 2kg less than Jimmy Choux, he was a close second behind Scarlett Lady last start (who would have been considered by many on par with JC last spring before her injury). This was shaping up like a great race as Veyron also can handle all conditions, he has a fantastic record at Ellerslie, loves 1600m, goes very well after a bit of freshening. If the 2kg penalty was not enough to make you consider these two equal the barrier draw has really worked against Veyron and brings things back towards Jimmy Choux's favour.

Green Supreme is the other candidate with great potential. He won easily over 1400m last start and will take on the extra 200m here. He looked very good building up over ground before his 6th in the Wellington Cup. His 1600m and Auckland records and sound, and he has won twice on slow tracks. The handicap conditions will give him 55kg to carry which is only 500 grams more than he carried to victory last start. How good is he relative to Jimmy and Veyron is the big unknown. He has won carrying more at lower grades over the past couple of months, he has quickly risen through the grades and is suited to these Open handicap conditions, he is very well drawn to be a major factor.

There are two other runners backing up from last weeks Group 1, the handicap conditions should suit both Postman's Daughter and Fleur de Lune. Fleur de Lune was very close to a win last week, and has secured a good draw in this big field. Postman's Daughter will be .5kg better off this week in weight relative to FdL, who will carry 2.5kg less that the set weight from last week. Postman's Daughter was consistent before her 8th last week and might be ready for a break, Fleur de Lune seems to be coming on and should be well set for this despite the run last week. A little softness underfoot should not concern either runner, FdL goes better at Ellerslie. Both are contenders here, but Fleur de Lune is the better of the two, I am still not sure she will be able to better Green Supreme given the similar weights the two will carry.

Vonusti is the other Group 1 winner in the race (Unless Time Keeper makes it in), he is not really in that Group 1 form, and has not really been as consistent since Boxing Day. The distance he has run over has gone up and down over the last few months, he is pretty well weighted at 55.5kg and should be set for 1600m right now, he is always a danger at Ellerslie.

Others who stand out include Justanexcuse who seems to be getting back to close to his best form. He has been carrying significantly more since the Coupland's Mile which was a comparable weight. Most of his experience is going left but he did win well under a big weight last start. Might be one for odds if the rain comes. He meets Green Supreme relatively 1kg better off than when the two met last with Green Supreme winning by 1 length, is that enough to make this interesting?

It has been about 18 months since Atom Cat won his last race. However he might be worth considering if the conditions take a turn down. He enjoys Ellerslie, has a cosy barrier 4th draw, and has a decent 2nd up record. Actually most of Atom Cat's victories have come early in campaigns, so the resuming 4th possibly showed some promise as it relates to this race. He is carrying 53.5kg in this field which is a very significant light weight.

Of the Richard Collett trained runners I am leaning towards Riotous, he has a weight advantage over his stablemate Alegrio and is drawn better to really compete. Both have similar Ellerslie records, and I imagine that if it is wet the weight advantage should equalise them. I really enjoyed the win here last start, I would stay away if wet, but 52kg compares well to the second here during Auckland Cup week.

Steel Giant is a pretty good horse to only carry 52kg here. A course and distance win on a rain effected track was decent but the field was ripped up with scratchings that day. I wouldn't consider him on a wet track, the draw is a put off and at weights Justanexcuse is effectively dropping the same amount after beating him soundly last start.

Sum Up has been pretty good this season. 1600m is probably short of his best distance, but at weight on a wet track might give some value. This would be by far the biggest win of his career, but he has gone close in decent races and was not a disgrace at Group 1 level. He likes it right handed and recent performances at Ellerslie have shown merit.

Jetset Lad was another I liked, but was put off by the draw. 1600m should really suit, he can factor, but I cant see him winning.

When it comes down to making picks I really think it will depend on how fit Jimmy Choux is and how he will carry that big weight. I think he is better here than Veyron because of Veyron's draw, the next biggest threat is Green Supreme (considering I think he is more suited than Fleur de Lune), I am simply not sure how to compare these two runners. Overall record there is no comparison, at the same weight I would like Jimmy all day. In regard to Green Supreme he has still not really faced a challenge on this level, his next biggest challenge was the Wellington Cup recently, before this it was at 3rd at Group 1 level at age 3, although he has been winning fairly handily this prep, the field he will face on Saturday is very strong. He beat a number of runners here last start, but I still feel like despite the Jimmy Choux question marks I have to look his way in this race, he has been there before and is a proven commodity.

First - Jimmy Choux
Second - Green Supreme
Third - Veyron - He is in great form and loves Ellerslie
Fourth - Atom Cat - I like him more if the rain comes.

Are you ready for New Zealand's Weirdest Group 1

2012-04-05T12:51:00.000+12:00

This Easter sees Group 1 Racing coming from New Zealand. No, it is not the Easter Handicap, that is the week after Easter for some inexplicable reason. We are going to be looking at Te Aroha for their sole Group 1 race the New Zealand Thoroughbred Breeders Stakes.

This race is strange, so strap in. This is the only Fillies and Mares specific Group 1 race for those older that 3YO, and strange things occur.

Barinka won this race last year beating Smoulder and Fleur de Lune who both line up again on Saturday. That win was her first and only Group 1 success, she won paying somewhere in the $18 region. She was the most recent in a long line of somewhat unexpected winners of this race. Strange things happen, so don't be afraid to go a bit loose in your selections. Particularly when both those place getter's last year paid over $7. Fixed odds place betting could get a hammering this weekend.

This race features potential up-and-coming mares with bright futures ahead of them, it features older campaigners seeking a last shot at Group 1 success to maybe improve their value as a Broodmare, and other runners who are just in it because it is there.

Need more proof that it is a strange one, going back to 2010 we see another longer shot winner in Juice. She paid $17.60, she was also ridden by Hayden Tinsley, it was also her only Group 1 success. Culminate and Obsession were more favoured as they rounded out the Tirfecta.

Dane Juila was second favourite when breaking this longshot trend in 2009, she beat the favourite. It was her only Group 1 win in New Zealand and only her second overall.

2008 was a normal year for the Breeders Stakes, Special Mission won for James McDonald paying $17.30. Culminate ran her first second and Keepa Cruisin ran for third. You will be surprised to discover this was her only Group 1 win, with her form tailing off following this result starting with an 11th in the Easter Handicap a few weeks later.

In 2007 a mare by the name of Captivate won this race. She was loved by the punters (relatively) paying a only $15.60 for Sam Spratt.

Arlingtonboulevard broke away with Jason Waddell on board in 2006 to claim that years version of the Breeders Stakes, fortunately Salsa ran second and would have paid $19.5 for the win, so successful punters had to accept a small return of $14.70 for their efforts.

You will not believe what Rockabubble paid winning in 2005 when the race was held in March, only $8, making her the first of only two sub $10 winners in the past 7 running's of this race. She finished 18th and 17th respectively in her next two attempts at Group 1 level.

2004 saw Surprize Surprize paying $11.85 despite finishing second in this race in 2003.

The horse who beat Surprize Surprize was called Zirna and paid $8.95 when winning, Surprize Surprize paid a big $6.30 for the place which was not even as large as third placed Rodrigo Rose who paid $7.35 for her place, making that year another sizable trifecta.

Whatever you do, do not back this weekends winner to go the Breeders/Easter Handicap double, the 2002 Breeders Stakes winner finished 14th in the Easter Handicap is another of many not to perform in this next Group 1. Saint Cecile paid $13 winning in 2002. Remember I have not mentioned one winning favourite in the past 9 years of this race. This was actually Saint Cecile's second win in this race as the 2002 victory backed up her 2001 victory (and she still paid $13), for the record in 2001 she was paying, $8.95 and the race was only at Group 2 level that year.

Where does that leave us this year, in the past 10 years we have seen no favourites win, $5.60 (Dane Julia) was the shortest priced winner, only three other horses have won and paid under $10 in the past 10 outings. To give you an idea, in all of the Group 1 races so far this year, Distil, Artistic and Choice Bro are the only winners who paid more that $10, two of those are the most recent two Group 1's of the year. We have seen 5 winners paying $14.70 or more throughout the years (would have loved to round up to $15 then), that is half of the winners. There has been 1 back to back winner (not counting Hayden Tinsley riding back to back winners), and Culiminate has run second twice, also Surprize Surprize ran second and went one better the following year. The only 3YO Filly to win was Special Mission, there have been 6 4YO's to win in the last 10 years, 3 6YO's and the only 5YO was Saint Cecile winning her second time.

So who are the likely candidates to continue this strange run of winners this year? Who fits the profile we have just described? Actually just about all of them.

There are four runners paying less than $10 (Fleur de Lune, Lady Kipling, Say No More, and Xanadu), keep one handy in your multiples as that seems to be the trend).

Other than the emergencies there are six runners paying in excess of $20 (Platinum Princess, Do Ri Mi, No Excuse Maggie, Lady Chaparral, Jeu de Cartes, Acapela).

That leaves six runners in the sweet spot, Postmans Daughter ($12, seems pretty good value), Fazzle ($14), Dating ($14), Floria ($10), Villifye ($10), Smoulder ($16).

What are my selections based on absolutely no analysis other than the last 10 events?
Winner - Smoulder ($16) - in the sweet spot, also doubles as the horse who performed well in this race a year ago.
Second - Lady Kipling ($7.50) - shorter odds runner to go close
Third - Postmans Daughter ($12) - value runner rounding out the trifecta.
Fourth - Fleur de Lune ($6) - the favourite

Maybe it is better to look at this race with a bit more analysis, basically you can expect strange things to happen because there are a lot of chances, we have a big field, and there is not really a clear cut favourite. With the wet forecast for the weekend I am anticipating we will at least see a slow track.(Only the first four are listed in specific order)

Long Shot First Four Contenders
#7 Do Ra Mi (14) $31 & $9 - Hard to know what the best indication of form is, she has not seen a good track since September last year, it is unlikely she will see one this weekend either.

#13 Lady Chaparral (6) $26 & $8 - Not too many have beaten Mufhasa this season, she is one of them. Her form since has not been the strongest, however she has gone well in Te Aroha, her record at Tauranga was likely a factor in the victory over Mufhasa, but this looks too tough.

#14 Jeu de Cartes (21) $21 & $6.50 - The draw is tough on this track, she does seem to go well on rain effected tracks, she has stepped up in quality over her last few and just has not quite reached this level.

#15 Acapela (1) $21 & $6.50 - Good to see Jason Collett back riding. On paper this is a chance, decent form, well drawn, decent record in the wet, has been beginning to step up in quality. I just think the set weight of 57kg will hurt her chances and I like others more.

A first four chance
#12 No Excuse Maggie (7) $33 & $10 - I like this John Barry runner, she was great throughout the winter last prep. She has not really come back in the same form, but she is hard to rule out. She won 4th, 6th and 9th up last prep (4th up on Saturday), her first 3 starts leading into that were 5th, 8th and 7th, this is a much tougher fourth start. Record over 1600m and on wet tracks is good.

#10 Villifye (16) $10 & $3.40 - Looked great last start winning, will have to deal with a big increase in weight in this one, she will handle the rain and looked like an improving mare, but I like the look of others more.

#9 Say No More (20) $7.50 & $2.60 - Say no more is a group one winner this season. She got a sweet draw and trip on that occasion carrying only 52kg. This looks tougher with 57kgs to carry and a wide draw to deal with.

#2 Platinum Princess (12) $31 & $9 - She won the Coupland's Bakeries Mile last year and has a great 1600m record, she has just not really gone on since then in races carrying a set weight. Possibly the draw has not been great in a few of these, and this is similar to the race she won on New Year's day at Ellerslie.

Hard to leave out
#3 Fazzle (15) $14 & $4.50 - That last 200m scares me, she might have a lot of work to do from the draw. She has really come on well over 1400m, and if you knew she would get a decent trip she might be hard to avoid, but I think she will need some luck.

#6 Floria (11) $10 & $3.40 - This just looks like a step up, she will have to carry more weight and possibly deal with a wet track. She is consistent and hard to completely ignore.

#17 Xanadu (9) $7 & $2.50 - I will always have another look at a 3YO in this type of race with the weight allowance. I have been both impressed and disappointed with this filly this year. I think this field is similar to Ellerslie on Boxing Day, yes there are older horses, but there is enough class to make this tough on her.

#4 Dating (4) $14 & $4.50 - The more I looked at her the more I liked her chances. She is a tough omission and from the draw I thought she looked a great chance. I have left her out because she is so inconsistent. When she won that F&M race back in October it looked like she would have a great season, she has just been too up and down to take.

First Four

Fourth - #5 Fleur de Lune (3) $6 & 2 - A lot to like, can she break the favourtie jinx? Well drawn and seems to be back close to her best.
Third - #1 Postmans Daughter (10) $12 & $4 - A strong competitor, consistent and racing in tougher company. Seems to go back and forth in distance, 1600m two starts in a row carrying basically what she carried for second in handicap conditions last start.
Second - #8 Lady Kipling (8) $7.50 & $2.60 - Has had a great year competing gamely in much tougher races. 1600m should suit her, I do have a right handed concern, but she has not been too bad recently.
First - #11 Smoulder (5) $16 & $5 - To take her you need to completely forgive the Tauranga effort, she was favourite, she had a bad day. She has been very good the rest of the year, she possibly has not won as many races as you would like, but she has been consistent. She can bounce back from a good draw here. She fits a lot of the history of this race in recent years.

What has changed since the Daimond Stakes?

2012-03-30T12:06:00.003+13:00

What has happened in between the 2YO's we will see in the Group 1 Manawatu Sires Produce Stakes this season?

-On New Years Day, in the Eclipse Stakes, of runners competing in the Oaks Stud Manawatu Sires Produce Stakes the finishing order was Warhorse, Irish Rebel, Magic Shaft.

- Moving forward to January 21st in Wellington, the Little Avondale Stud Wakefield Challenge Stakes, we saw a finishing order of Irish Rebel, Liberating.

-The Karaka Million was run on the 29th of January, the finishing order was Warhorse, Choice Bro, Mai Guru.

- Moving into February the 2YO division saw Choice Bro beat Lumiere Blue and Liberating in Taranaki in the Platinum Homes 2YO Classic.

- A week later was a big day at Matamata, we first saw the Reid and Harrision Slipper and watched Magic Shaft better Irish Rebel and Travino, which was the first time we saw a change in one of the major 2YO features since New Years Day. Later that day in the J Swap Contractors Matamata Breeders Stakes we saw them finish Rollout the Carpet, Liberating, Lady de Chine.

- Then in the seasons first 2YO Group 1 we the Haunui Farm Diamond Stakes at Ellerslie, they crossed the line Rollout the Carpet, Warhorse, Soriano, Travino, Choice Bro, and Mai Guru. Warhorse and Rollout the Carpet were reversed in the judges room, and there are question marks as to how her performance may have effected other runners, but it is clear looking at the Two year olds this year there have not been a lot of major shakeups (in these major races at least).

The question is will this change this weekend? The big difference is that they will be competing over 1400m.

Lets look at what we have seen over these seven races to date with the eleven horses who have competed against each other to try to create a ranking. This ranking wont take into account performance or magnitude of the race, simply a Rock, Paper, Scissors type breakdown.

The above table shows the evolution over time of who beat who and by roughly how much. The major change was in the Diamond Stakes because Choice Bro finished well below expectations and Travino finished much closer, that indicates to me that we are in for a close race.

What can explain these significant changes?

Travino was great before Christmas, if those results were taken into account he probably would have begun this table in a higher position, he might be getting fitter, and had claims he was interfered with in that last race.

Choice Bro's best result in the 2YO classic was left handed, the race Daimond Stakes was at Ellerslie Right Handed, he finished about 2.5 lengths behind Warhorse, about an additional length from the Karaka Million, not majorly significant, but does indicate some course and distance regression relative to Warhorse, particularly when you consider that Mai Guru was about 2.5 lengths behind in both races.

Who has excuses from that race?
Mai Guru raced about four wide for most of the event. If we really look at that finish, if not for the fright Rollout the Carpet would have probably won that race. Choice Bro was coming from deep and really never a chance but did make up ground. Warhorse was clearly effected by Rollout the Carpet, Mai Guru was effected by Warhorse, and Travino was effected by Mai Guru. Warhorse had continued interference, Travino and Mai Guru cut inside and Mai Guru was squeezed between Travino and Soriano.

What is different about this weekend's race?
It is 1400m, who might that help?
Rollout the Carpet, Warhorse, Soriano, Travino and Choice Bro all seemed to run out the 1200m very well, 1400m should suit. Magic Shaft looked suited, Irish Rebel could use more ground (Guineas winner in the Spring?).

The Fix is in!
We have the addition of Fix into the mix. What can we expect from this winner of two from two. She got up late to win her maiden over 1000m and then really used the extra 100m well to smash them at Ellerslie. 1400m should suit, she is a major player here.

Who might be better suited going Left Handed?
I think it is fair to include Choice Bro in here as a horse may improve going left, only because of the victory over Ockham's Razor following Ockham's Razors Karaka Million victory. We are generally looking at a small sample size but Warhorse's only "failure" was left handed at Te Rapa, Mai Guru looked good left and has not done as well right (in much tougher races), Rollout the Carpet has had one run right and we saw what happened (although it looked like a fright more than anything), Liberating best work has been left. It does not really look like there is too much to read into these results.

Will anyone benefit from the Awapuni Location?
Lady de Chine is trained at Awapuni, Liberating and Lumiere Blue are others with less distance to travel. Irish Rebel and Choice Bro are the only ones to run a race on the track, the finished first and second in the same race back in December.

Has any performance been effected negatively or positively by track conditions? (right now the track is Dead 4, there is no significant rain forecast).
You can make a case this will be the best track Travino has ran on since his return from Australia. Lumiere Blue was 9th of 9th on a track rated 4, if it improves so does his record. Liberating seems to improve with a bit more moisture around. Lady de Chine went very well on good tracks before the run in the Matamata Breeders Stakes which was Dead.

Any Barrier Draw Concerns?
Warhorse and Choice Bro should get good runs to suit with a lot of runners outside them battling for the lead. A few potential leaders, Irish Rebel (4) , Magic Shaft (7), possibly Mai Guru (1), Rollout the Carpet (6), Fix (9). I think Fix may be suited to get across outside the leader where he has been in other races, however there is definitely a chance the likes of Magic Shaft and Fix can get caught wide if too many move forward. Soriano might be unlucky to be out in 11. Liberating performed well leading last time from a good draw, has tended to go back without much success when drawn wider so 12 is unlucky.

Any odds stand out?
Choice Bro, Left handed, conditions will suit, raced on the track, may be better with the shorter gap between races. $14 is value.
Travino, may get better conditions, unlucky last time, winner on the track. $9 seems fair.
Lumiere Blue, should run into decent conditions, has performed well against these runners in the past, pretty consistent and probably a better chance than $26.
Fix is at $12, there are a few unknowns for her, so $12 is fair, but could be the surprise package.
Lady de Chine is probably a better chance than $26, but there are a lot to like more.

How do I see them finishing?
First - Rollout the Carpet - Should already have a Group 1 to her credit
Second - Choice Bro - Give the benefit of the doubt, I think we see a better performance
Third - Irish Rebel - Matamata breeders finish was strong, an improvement from the Wellington run, should be set for this.
Fourth - Travino - Went back and forth between Warhorse and Magic Shaft before realising that things may be aligning for a strong Travino performance here.

I am very unsure about fourth, if you are having a first four try to go as wide as possible.

To go back to the question at the top, has much changed since the Diamond Stakes? Clearly I think so.

Which Kiwi has the best chance in the Rosehill Guineas?

2012-03-29T12:27:00.000+13:00

This Saturday four New Zealand trained runners will take their place in the Rosehill Guineas over 2000m in Sydney. Three of them are rated (by New Zealand bookies) in the top 5 chances (in terms of odds), the other is already a Group 1 winner in Australia. The trip to Australia is always a big challenge for Kiwi horses, there has been a lot of successes over the past couple of years with Wall Street, Jimmy Choux, Mufhasa, Sangster, Lion Tamer, Kings Rose (Can I still claim that?) and Scarlett Lady amongst some of the more successful. This Saturday there is a chance another name will be added to this list. I have watched these New Zealand 3YO's pretty closely and this is how I think they will go this weekend.

Sangster won the Victorian Derby in November. This prep he was never going to be a chance in the Waikato Draft Sprint, he was most likely not going to factor in the Australian Guineas, but last start at Moonee Valley over 2040m he showed similar progress to his build up to the Victorian Derby putting in a better performance. 2000m will suit, but this may still be a bit of a Derby build up. He is certainly a place chance, $21 is pretty good value for a win, but the AJC Derby in two weeks is a race he could really be a big part of.

Rock'n'Pop is a bigger chance than the $10 odds on offer at present. Even just looking at how he compares to Ocean Park and Silent Achiever, he was well beaten into second by Silent Achiever on ground which was probably not ideal for either runner, but why is Ocean Park rated a so much better chance than him. Rock'n'Pop won the Guineas, was third at Group 1 level behind Shez Sinsational over this distance, and then was a good second in the Derby (when distance was a question mark). Ocean Park's best two results were dominating the Group 3 Wellington Stakes, a close up 8th two weeks ago at Randwick, and having Silent Achiever weave through the field and beat him in Hamilton. Personally I still prefer Rcok'n'Pop, I think this distance will suit, he will be happy at barrier 10 and you would imagine he will be in the first half of the pack two wide.

Ocean Park is a good chance, despite been caught late over 2000m at Hamilton he will be fitter for that experience over 2000m. He was only two-ish lengths behind Mosheen last start (she would be favoured here I expect) and finished comparably to Manawanui. I know Ocean Park is good, it is just very hard to compare him to any of the other Kiwi horses, I know Silent Achiever was better than him, is suspect Rock'n'Pop is better, but because he missed the derby there are a lot of unknowns. It appears he might have improved from his last New Zealand Race, and strong form in Australia is important, but he did finish behind Seven other horses in the Randwick Guineas, five of which he will face on Saturday. Luck was certainly a factor in the Randwick Guineas, but to bet on Ocean Park to win this weekend you need to make the following assumptions; he wont have bad luck (you have to assume that for whoever you bet on); he would have beaten the other five Australian runners without bad luck (doubtful); he would have beaten them if the race was extended 400m (possible); he has improved to the point he is better than Silent Achiever (unlikely); Silent Achiever will beat every other runner over 2000m (a strong chance); he is stronger and 2000m now suits (I am still not completely sure, but will give him benefit of the doubt). That is not enough in my opinion to have him beating Silent Achiever, Laser Hawk or all of other other four who beat him last time.

Silent Achiever is great, the draw should not concern, she will go back, if she has cover she should be able to get a run. She is the best hope of the Kiwi's, in a four horse race over this distance she beats them all with comfort. Is she good enough to beat the Aussie horses? that is the big question.

Of course this is not just a four horse race, there will probably be 18 starters. Laser Hawk ran a narrow third to Mosheen last start and has to be considered. If you like Ocean Park you have to like the look of Galah. Strike the Stars is a chance based on his last two races. Induna and Sabrage will be getting better with distance, but probably wont figure. Highly Recommended looks more threatening over 2000m. Said Com is consistent but ran out of steam and now has 400m more to deal with. Proliferate is stepping up, but the distance with better footing may help.

There are chances across the board and the Kiwi runners are a good hope, certainly we should see one or two in the money, but can they claim the big prize, Silent Achiever looks the best pick.

Tuesday Racing, Why not?

2012-03-27T12:11:00.000+13:00

I know that Monday and Tuesday racing is a somewhat controversial topic, I am not here to comment on the logistics or point of this, nor am I informed enough on the reasons for and against. What I am is bored. I never pay much attention to mid week racing, I simply don't have the time, and if I am not going to be home and watching it then I tend not to really bet on it. The good thing about the NZ Racing Website is that if you need to watch mid week racing you can watch all of the races in 20 minutes, if you need to study form for a weekend race it is all right there for you for free.

Today I am throwing myself into Tuesday racing, having a look at the runners and making some selections.

Race 1 - 2000m Maiden - Small field of seven runners, I notice two are paying 20-1 and 30-1 which all but makes this a 5 horse race (in the eyes of the bookies at least), if there were eight runners then maybe one of those at that level is worth a place bet flyer with fixed odds place betting available.

My Picks
First - 4 - Makers Mark - I always like horses coming back from tougher company regardless of the result.
Second - 3 - Prospero - Performed better 2nd up on a dead track, will a slow track suit?
Third - 2 - Lucky Charm - Best performance last start C&D, should run on.
Fourth - 8 - Double Delight - Why not? yet to do anything, but this is only beating three runners, also is another who has raced against better company.

Race 2 - 1600m Maiden - Interesting race with a few runners claiming with apprentice Jockeys where they have not in the past. Also this is a decent sized field with a handful of experienced runners. My theory of runners back in "grade" will be tested today. I also have another theory about not liking runners going back in distance when they are searching for a win.
My Picks
First - 10 - Shan's Joy - Love the claim, seems to get better with racing, 1600m suits, and handles all tracks.
Second - 4 - Ira Bean - This is where my theories intersect. I do like the claim, hopefully she will go well fresh.
Third - 9 - Oneworld Onedream - Looks like a big chance based from the two starts to date.
Fourth - 1 - Just Got Home - Is getting closer, more distance seemed to suit last start.

Race 3 - 1400m Rating 75 - Some fairly accomplished rating 75 horses here..
My Picky
First - 1- Czechout Girl - Great name. Recent winner. Claiming will help chances, and she has gone well on slow tracks.
Second - 5 - Sateka - In form, handles all tracks and has won twice in Matamata.
Third - 7 - Savvy Dancer - Fresh is a state which suits, he worked his way up to longer last prep but still has performed well over 1400m and early in prep.
Fourth - 4 - Snagglepuss - Great 1400m distance record, not in the best form but tends to get a bit better with racing.

Race 4 - 1200m 3YOF Maiden - I always like 3YO races at this level at this point in the season. You never know if you are going to see a Scarlett Lady type runner, maybe a runner who will come on as at 4YO, maybe you are looking at a horse who's connections had hopes she would have been running in a Guineas or Oaks but the timing simply didn't work out. There are a lot of possible story lines in play. It is interesting looking back at our top horses, yes some were great at 3YO, but the late bloomers are interesting, often they raced in this type of race unsuccessfully at age three.

My Picks
First - 10 - Pearle Lustre - had placed in trials and was well supported first up. Should do better here with luck.
Second - 14 - Zabinella - Has only one race start to date at age two, was very well backed. That was following a trial win. Following another trial win is now having her first 3YO start. Hope she does better.
Third - 2 - La Stellina - Close in what looked to be a similar race.
Fourth - 3 - Seven Fifty - Claiming down to 53.5kg. Technically her third 3YO start. Her career form to date looks like she is another who has had a couple of starts but been put away to come back at a better time. Maybe this is the time she can be unleashed.

Race 5 - 1200m Maiden - Lots of runners having their first start here, really makes it quite open, hard to know what to expect from a few of these runners, tough start to the Quaddie.
My Picks
First - 14 - Veronica Hall - Good course and distance record, beaten favourite, claiming.
Second - 1 - Distance suits and should not have an issue with the slow track, back from a strong race last start.
Third - 5 - The final round - Why not? seems to have trialed well.
Fourth - 3 - Isdabicky - Handful of trials placing recently.

Race 6 - 1600m Racing 65m - Interesting race for three reasons, firstly there is a number of runners back to this level after racing for higher stakes recently, secondly there is a few either dropping back in distance or possibly working their way up to more distance, and thirdly there are several who have not really performed on rain effected tracks.
My Picks
First - 2 - Are you Devious - Without the claim I would be less confident, this is easier than recent races but the slow track performance two starts back is a concern.
Second - 4 - Ransoms Gold - Good performances recently, amongst the favourites again.
Third - 7 - Speedy Rocket - Should suit the conditions, 1600m should see improvement, has been racing for higher stakes at R65 level.
Fourth - 3 - Lovetohaveit - Winner previously at Ellerslie, taking a big claim while taking on a level which is more suitable.

Race 7 - 1200m Rating 65 - Is it just me or do we have some very good apprentice Jockeys around? I really like a number of them and feel very comfortable betting on them.
My Picks
First - 6 - Lady Krovanh - Really good 3rd over 2100m to the eventual derby winner. Freshened. Should go well here.
Second - 12 - Tale to Tell - Was impressed with the maiden victory last start.
Third - 4 - Secret Whisper - Ran in the Guineas last start, 1200m should suit fresh up.
Fourth - 17 - Vuela - Value, concern is track and strong competition.

Race 8 - 1400m Maiden - Interesting race, a lot of possibilities, very few I feel are certain to perform.
My Picks
First - 6 - My Blossom Lady - If you forget the last start then you feel the most confident about her.
Second - 8 - Morgan Le Fay - Looked to have that strong finish to suit 1400m
Third - 2 - Ribbony Rose - Slow track concerns, but merit in the last two starts.
Fourth - 3 - Scarlet Chaparral - Place chance like so many in this race.

New Zealand Horse of the Year contenders

2012-03-23T09:25:00.002+13:00

I have been looking for something to write about this week. Although I am very excited about the racing at Rosehill this weekend and for some reason the Japan Trophy meeting at Tauranga is one which always excites me, I am not sure I have much to say about these races.

The season feels like it is winding up, there are still three group 1's this year in New Zealand and plenty of horses heading to Australia for the Sydney Carnival and there are always a number who head to Queensland in the Winter. It has been such a good year for a number of horses I got to thinking who would be my horse of the year right now? When I came up with my answer I realised that horse may be too far ahead to catch. What would need to happen over the next couple of months to change my opinion?

If the season finished now, there is little doubt in my mind that the best performing horse from New Zealand this year has been Mufhasa. His resume includes two Group 1 wins in New Zealand (Makfi Challenge Stakes and the Captain Cook Stakes) as well as two in Australia (Toorak Handicap and the Futurity Stakes), he also finished second in two Group 1 Races in New Zealand (Winsor Park Plate and the Waikato Draft Sprint), his 'worst' performance has been second at Group 3 level in the Tauranga Stakes. The only three horses have to finish a race ahead of him this year are Jimmy Choux, Veyron (both 2 time New Zealand Group 1 winners this year) and Lady Chaparral. That is a very decent six month stretch. There may be more to come in Sydney this Autumn. Is that the best season by any Kiwi horse? I don't think there is anything which can top this now, but could anything top it by year end?

Could a Two Year Old win?
Conceivably, yes. This year, no. Even if Warhorse is able to win a second Group 1 it would be impossible to put his body of work ahead of Mufhasa. Even if a unrecognised or under-recognised NZ 2YO travelled to Australia in the winter and won multiple Group 1's it still might not be enough. I am yet to read of any plans for any of the "leading" 2YO talent to attempt this, so we can stack this in the very unlikely pile.

Who is the top 3YO contender?
There have been five 3YO Group 1 Races, we have had five different winners. Only one horse (Rock'n'Pop) has run in the top three of more than one of these races. The other two stand out 3YO's this year (when you look at their whole body of work) are Planet Rock and Silent Achiever, the next tier includes Artistic and Ocean Park. I know none of these have impressed like Mufhasa thus far this season, I think the top New Zealand three year old may come down to Australian performances, but will any of these performances be sufficient to unseat current favourite Mufhasa? If Silent Achiever is able to win both the Rosehill Guineas and the Australia Derby (assuming that is where she ends up), what if Artistic is able to do something in Queensland, as the Oaks appears a target, Ocean Park looked good first start in Australia, he might be a Guineas or even Derby threat, and there is always the chance of another top chance emerging over the Winter like Shez Sinsational and Scarlett Lady did last year, could a horse like Quintessential challenge? I am not sure Silent Achiever will be best suited in the Guineas, but should be a threat over Oaks or Derby distance. However, even with those feathers in her cap it is hard to see people considering her as having a better year than Mufhasa.

Group 1 Winners galore
Scarlett Lady had the potential to sew up this horse of the year status in the Spring but injury prevented this. She is currently in Australia and one would assume she is aiming for a BMW or a Sydney Cup or something similar. Her resume for 2011/12 is short, but includes a 2000m Group 1 victory during Auckland Cup week. Strong results over in Australia could see her contend for horse of the year, but there is a lot of ground to make up.

Veyron finished off a dominant 2011 with a win in the Easter Handicap capturing his first Group 1 in the process. He started the new season with a fourth first up at Open Handicap level in November, as we approach April that is still his worst result of the season. Since then he has won four races and finished second in two with two Group 1 wins and two seconds over 2000m also at Group 1 level. I would not have expected him to show that kind of talent over 2000m, but it is really testament to his ability. Had he captured those other two Group 1's he may even be the favourite to be horse of the year. Thus far he is not on the exported horses list for March, so it is not clear if he will run in Australia this year.

Shez Sinsational didn't begin the 2011/12 season spectacularly, running 2nd and 3rd over 1400m in Rating 90 company and 5th in a 1600m Group 3 race. However, the Queensland Oaks and Derby place-getter showed that more ground was what she craved running 2nd in the Cal Isuzu Stakes over 1600m at Group 2 level and then dominating the 2000m WFA category winning both the Zabeel Classic and the Darci Brahma International. Handicap conditions and wet ground caused a worry when third in the Nathan's Memorial but her third Group 1 win was impressive in the Auckland Cup. That alone is probably not enough to have her as horse of the year over Mufhasa, however there are plenty of options available to her as to where she might race next.

Jimmy Choux has two Group 1 wins in New Zealand this year (Windsor Park Plate and the Spring Classic), he was runner up in the first of the three "triple crown" races to Mufhasa. He was runner up in the Cox Plate and fourth in the Emirates Mile. He was invited to the Hong Kong Mile, he ran ninth, but even accepting an invitation is a big deal. He will have one more start in New Zealand (probably) this year in the Easter Handicap, clearly Handicap conditions may not be ideal, but one would think he has the talent even at a significant weight disadvantage. He will then likely head to Australia for more Group 1's. Would a third New Zealand Group 1 and one or two Aussie Group 1's make him the best Kiwi horse this year? maybe, it really depends on how Mufhasa goes, however at this point it his his 'Race' to lose.

New Zealand Oaks 2012 Preview

2012-03-16T12:52:00.001+13:00

Quick, who won the 2011 New Zealand Oaks? tick, tock, tick, buzz. Sorry, no, Kings Rose did not win the Oaks, thanks for playing we have some lovely parting gifts for you.

If you had guessed Scarlett Lady, Shez Sensational, Postmans Daughter or any of the other leading 4YO mares we are seeing around at the moment you would still be wrong. Midnight Oil was the winner, she was followed by Zennista and Insurgent.

This is another year were we will not see the top 3YO filly win the Oaks; she won the New Zealand Derby two weeks ago. That said this field is highlighted by some absolutely top class 3YO talent. The 3YO fillies have been rocking it this year, it is an excellent crop, in my Opinion two of the most stacked 3YO races this year, other than the Derby have been the Eight Carat Classic on Boxing Day and the Sir Tristram Fillies Classic. These races didn't even even feature top 3YO prospect at the beginning of the season Anabandana and the Eight Carat Classic featured Dowager Queen but she was far from her best at that point in the season.

This years Oak's field definitely looks split between the "have's" and "have not's" the top half of the book is already very accomplished and filled with genuine winning chances, the bottom half of the book features more uncertainty, but this is the Oaks, it is a huge race and anything can happen.

The Have's

Planet Rock was so impressive in the wet at Hastings, she is a prime contender in this. She is the second favourite which is confusing. Yes, prior to the run at Hastings she recorded two 4ths, but I do feel like she can be fully excused for the first one and partially excused for the second. If you throw out those races would she be favourite? My biggest concern is the change in Jockey, taking off arguably the best big race jockey in the country, that is confusing, in spite of that she may still win.

Is Artistic the filly version of Shuka? look at her 3YO season, it is very consistent, she has finished close up to some very strong competition and she is clearly in the top tier of 3YO's, but she has not really won the big one. I was not sure about her over more distance, but the win during Auckland Cup week and the Sir Tristram Fillies fifth have convinced me otherwise. Has got lucky with the draw, but possibly will face too much competition here to win.

Capital Diamond was very good last time in the Capital. Was just taken out by a flying finish by Quintessential. Zurella gave her more of the same in the Sir Tristram Fillies and Planet Rock trounced her in the Lowland Stakes. She will look to lead and barrier 1 suits this well. She is a very good filly who, with a bit of luck, may have won three starts back at Trentham and won the Sir Tristram Fillies and come into this race as favourite. As it is she is paying $10 (fixed) and $3.25 a place (fixed), can she win? absolutely, will she finish in the money? very likely. Take the $3.25 and thank me later.

Zurella, we know it needs to be dry (and it looks like it will be). We know she goes considerably better left. We know she has run 2400m reasonably well. But there is something about her which leaves me a little cold. Is she overrated? I think she might be. Clearly she is talented, but if you put a stake in the ground and called it A and another stake in the ground 6.2 lengths away and called it B you would be looking at the difference between the best 3YO filly and Zurella (over 2400m), do you think any other filly will finish in that gap in this race? I think so.

Quintessential is paying $15 and $4.75 at the moment. I am not sure what to make of this. I really put it all down to the draw. She is better than that. She finished the day after Planet Rock when third in the Lowland Stakes, but those conditions were horrible. Based on her win here in late January alone you have to consider her a contender here. As I said, I am very put off by the draw, but that is really the major doubt in my mind.

Chicharita is properly rated for this race. She is a horse who I liked for the derby when the conditions looked like they might be bad, this week with a track probably improving to good by start time I am not as confident in her ability to beat some of the other contenders here. Her worst results have come left handed, she was 6th in the Sir Tristram Fillies, every horse who beat her is in this race. Although, she did look good over 2400m as the second filly home, I cant see her improving on that Derby run.

Joy's Choice has been on the radar for a while, but really emerged in the Royal Stakes at Ellerslie, she then came very close to winning the Sunline Vase during Auckland Cup week. I definitely have her in the top half of this field and would be another who I would not be surprised to see in the finish. She is pretty well drawn, and although she was caught late over 2100m, if she can get a sweet trip and save her energy and emerge slightly later she may be able to hold on this time.

Splitsecond is probably the biggest beneficiary of Silent Achiever heading overseas, she will gain the services of James McDonald for this race as he and Roger James target a Derby/Oaks double. $9 is probably a little shorter than I would have expected, but if the Sunline Vase was 2150m she may have won that race (actually Glad probably would have won that race). She has quickly risen to this level and I think a horse like Carrick is a fair comparison, so she has to be considered, she can definitely win this, but with the level of competition $9 does not look like value, $3 a place is more realistic.

The Have Nots (or more accurately the Have Not Yet's)

Poste Restante looks comfortable racing at rating 65 level, she has stepped up recently in distance and slightly in class and been solid but unspectacular. If Angleology was a filly, where would you rate him in the field after his Derby Performance? Probably not in the top 7, right?

Savasong might still be running the Lowlands Stakes. Forgive that race because of the conditions, and look at the 1800m second at New Plymouth as a better guide. Not exactly the stiffest competition, but signs point to her finishing the 2400m well.

Melody Celebre last ran over 1200m about 6 weeks ago. She will like a bit more distance, but this is double, she has run over 1600m a couple of times without success. What is the best case for her? I really don't know. She could win this, but it would require mass scratching for unknown reasons.

Tilda was only 7.5 lengths away from Silent Achiever in the Avondale Guineas. Of course Silent Achiever walked in that race, and that put her behind 6 derby runners. She has had another lower grade start over 2100m since. She looks like she will be able to get the 2400m, but is out of her class here.

Asavant is probably the 'have not' to beat until the barrier draw. It is hard to see her figuring here. She raced in the same race at Trentham on the 28th of January as a number of these starters and finished 13th, she is probably better than that but not significantly.

Jungle Pago is consistent-ish, but hard to see her doing anything over 2400m based on the video of her last start.

Lady Plantinum has been there-or-thereabouts and getting better with distance. The set weight may actually hinder her chances. Although she is not in the class of a lot of these runners she is better than 100-1 would suggest and might be the "have not" to watch.

Manhattam Mam shouldn't be a threat in this race, it is a major step up in class.

Myminkcoat has a very cool name and has been consistent when the footing is good. She is one who should be suited to 2400m and almost closed enough to win last start over 2200m. Again 100-1 seems unfairly high, but I guess when your ceiling may be a top 6 finish it doesn't make a lot of difference.

The Picks
First - Planet Rock - I can't sleep on her, she is a Group 1 winner who has returned to form.
Second - Capital Diamond - Forget the last start (it was still a Group 3 Second), but the last two before that were so close.
Third - Splitsecond - I am buying the flying finish from the Sunline Vase
Fourth - Zurella - Reluctantly, I really wanted to pick Artistic, but I know I am too hard on Zurella and she will probably outperform my expectations.

Three Year Old Power Rankings March Edition

2012-03-13T12:45:00.001+13:00

Many things have changed in the last month since the February Power Rankings,we have seen the running of the New Zealand Derby, the Sunline Vase, the Lowland Stakes, and the Mr Tiz Trophy. We have seen a possible return to prominence from Burgundy, and a surprising lack of prominence from Antonio Lombardo, as well as the retirement of Anabandana and Ocean Park heading off in search of his derby across the ditch.

Where does that put us in the Power Rankings?

The Anabandana situation is a mystery, she was second on this list last month, and although she would have dropped following her second, and ultimately final, start in Australia I didn't expect to see a retirement. I guess, much like Distil she will have to drop from the rankings, because if not racing I guess she doesn't qualify. What an outstanding career!

I have really loved this class of fillies, and we are looking at a great Oaks this weekend, we may see another filly on top of this list, but Ocean park has a chance to take a big step up this list as he taking on the Randwick Guineas this weekend.

Not sure what to make of Burgundy after the weekend, which is becoming like his nickname, he was probably never going to win a Derby, after watching the run on the weekend I am unsure if he was really ever going to win a guineas either, it was only a month ago when I wrote " I continue to think that if you raced all of these top 3YO's over 1200 or 1400m it would be a close race between him and Anabandana." It would have been awesome if I was writing about Burgundy, but I was actually talking about Antonio Lombardo. This really creates a puzzle. Burgundy looked very good, maybe he was always going to be a 1200m type horse. As it turns out this was the thinking from the connections as well. (although that article indicates it wont be in the thought process, do you think an Easter Handicap is too much of a stretch? we are still waiting on our first 3YO Group 1 winner at open level). Antonio Lombardo didn't really look as good as he did early in the Spring, maybe it was the dead track which had been raced on 24 times that week, or the extra weight he was carrying but he just didn't seem to have that same closing speed, did he do enough to remain in the top 10.

Power Rankings
Dropped from Rankings:
Anabandana (2) Sangster (8) Capital Diamond (10)

Honourable Mention
Anabandana (2, for reasons discussed above), Sangster (8, hard to leave out, his starts this prep have been over 1400m and 1600m, I would expect to see him back in this list once we get closer to 2000m ), Chicharita (Very narrow miss, testament to the quality of the 3YO's we are seeing), Capital Diamond (10, Fought on well in the wet, still a possible Oaks contender, 2400m should not be an issue), Duckworth Lewis (HM), Quintessential (HM), Travolta, Joy's Choice, Nashville (HM), Shuka (HM, always HM), St Yazin, Glad (not currently Oak's nominated but Sleeper Alert!)

Number 10 - Antonio Lombardo (3) - Would have been hard to leave him off, I really expect to see him bounce back over his next start. He didn't look his best on the weekend, but I expect to see him back to it soon.

Number 9 - Ocean Park (9) - Big expectations around this Colt and what he can do in Sydney.

Number 8 - Knight's Tour (7) - What could have been? Not sure when he is coming back, hopefully he comes back as good has be looked before the injury.

Number 7 - Burgundy (HM) - Back up in the rankings following an impressive 1200m victory in a listed race the last day of Auckland Cup week.

Number 6 - Artistic (HM) - Was her win the Sunline Vase better than Capital Diamond's second in the Lowland Stakes. The conditions were certainly better, it will be interesting to find out this Saturday.

Number 5 - Carrick (N/A) - Close up and fighting third in the Derby, he is probably working with less talent wise than the first two on this list, but he showed a great effort and should continue to contend when the distance gets above 2000m.

Number 4 - Zurella (5) - Was good in the Derby for 5th in a race which probably wasn't ideal. She will want a dryer track in the Oaks, and although it feels (to me anyway) like there is still a question mark over 2400m she may challenge based on talent alone.

Number 3 - Planet Rock (6) - Back to her best when winning on Derby Day in the Hawkes Bay. She is an interesting one, I had to drop her down the list last time because she had two consecutive fourths, however I really felt that the Royal Stakes was justified because of the backing up from the week before and it was her first 2000m start. The following start in the Sir Tristram fillies I felt there were excuses, but it was maybe just not her day, she also finished behind three very good fillies. She is clearly class and can really prove it by beating a top Oak's field this weekend.

Number 2 - Rock'n'Pop (1) - Is it possible I have actually underrated him all year? How do you underrate a Group 1 winner? But he ran out a very strong Derby, prior to this the 3rd at Group 1 level was again excellent. The only time he didn't really fire was on a slow track in a meaningless race. I am still not even sure the distance or conditions for the Derby were really ideal, but he just showed his considerable talent.

Number 1 - Silent Achiever (4) - What more can I say? no, seriously, I have probably written about 5000+ words about her since December. She was amazing on the 3rd, it was a great win. It will be great to see what she can do in Australia. Is she as good as Jimmy Choux was last year? hard to say, I will need to think about that. I feel another breakdown coming on (although I was wrong about the last one I wrote). She is a different horse than Jimmy Choux, she was always going to get better as we got up to 2400m, but maybe we will see them against each other next year over 2000m, that could be interesting. My gut says that Jimmy is better, but even if she is only as good as King's Rose, we are still looking at what will be an interesting 4YO year.

Value Oaks Proposition: Odds not currently listed, although I can say I will be Glad to see them when they are.
Long shot Oaks Proposition: Odds not currently listed

James McDonald's Quest for the Cup week Sweep

2012-03-08T12:23:00.001+13:00

This is now a story. There was always a possibility it would become one and in some ways the two Group 1's McDonald has won were the easier of the two he will face this week. They were the ones he was probably expected to win. In other ways they were harder, there was enough that went wrong before and during those races that the victories were remarkable. He will ride Scarlett Lady and Rollout the Carpet on Saturday in his quest to sweep the Auckland Cup week Group 1's.

James McDonald calls Ellerslie his favourite track. I don't think anyone would disagree with him. Durham Town, Silent Achiever, Fix, Peridot, Between the Beats, and Shez Sensational have won this Auckland Cup week with him on board. Fix was another in a long line of wins in the first race of the day at Ellerslie yesterday. His strike rate is currently a ridiculous 4.41, that should mean with the nine rides he currently has booked for Saturday there are two winners in that group, I am sure the ones he wants the most are the Diamond Stakes and the New Zealand Stakes.

The New Zealand Derby last Saturday, James McDonald was riding Silent Achiever. The ground was possibly not as suitable as they would have liked, there was not a lot of pace in the race for Silent Achiever a horse who typically likes to race towards the back of the pack. It was evident from the relief shown by Roger James when they interviewed him after the victory that although he felt he had the horse with the most talent, he was not sure if things were lining up exactly how he wanted. After the race James McDonald admitted he didn't ride exactly to instructions and Silent Achiever slipped leaving the gates, judging from the after race comments analysts felt that possibly Silent Achiever hit the front earlier than she normally would have. What I liked about the ride was the point about 1400m to go when she was third from last and James McDonald moved her up, three wide, but closer to the pace. As they hit the 800m mark there is probably only 9 runners ahead of him, it was an excellent place for him to be when they started the sprint for home. As it was she won comfortably, but if he had been further back who knows, maybe she gets blocked or simply out sprinted. He really seemed to always have that race under his control from about 350m, every time another runner battled closer he asked her for more and she gave it.

In the Auckland Cup yesterday, as trainer Allan Sharrock said in his interview after the race "what else could go wrong" (in the video in the link, you need to sign up to view it, but it is free). He even basically said that the rain that had started about an hour before the race had put him off having a big bet on the horse because of the uncertainty in the conditions. Given what we saw on Saturday it would be hard not to be concerned at that point. During the running of the race George Simon made several comments about the position of Shez Sensational. "the favourite's under a ride" was his call as James McDonald went to work on her about 450m to go, he was probably one of the first Jockeys to make a move in the race. He then had to work a bit to find a hole, but Shez Sensational responded when he finally did. George Simon mentions she is warming up as they pass the 300m mark, but she really hits her stride with about 200m to go and just had too much top speed chasing down Spiro on the line.

Clearly we are looking at a very talented Filly and Mare, but everything didn't go their way, and those were very strong rides to allow the horses to show their best.

Now the question remains, can he go four for four?

The next Auckland Cup week Group 1 is the first Group 1 for the Two year olds the Diamond Stakes over 1200m. James McDonald is riding equal second favourite Rollout the carpet. There is a lot of talent in this race when you look at Choice Bro, Warhorse, Travino, Silk Pins and Croatia amongst others.

Choice Bro has shown eye catching finishes in the Karaka Million (fourth) and winning over Ockhams Razor last start at Taranaki. He has had the benefit of good draws to date and has performed best on a good track, he may not have either on Saturday. The blinkers which came on last start seemed to make a difference. He will be finishing big, but probably down the outside as opposed to the inside as in recent starts.

Warhorse is having his first start in over a month, however he has tended to race with these kind of gaps to date in his career so that should not effect him. A Group 3 winner with talent, he really charged home in the Karaka Million. He is already establishing a strong record at Ellerslie and his win there on New Years day was on a rain effected track. He has the benefit of a better draw so might be able to start his run from a handier position this time.

Travino had his first start back in New Zealand in the Matamata Slipper two weeks ago. The dead track gave him only his second non-win in the New Zealand since his first start (on a slow track). That was his first start in about 6 weeks, his wins have come with 14days, 14days and 21days rest, so expect a better showing here. He has drawn barrier one which should allow him to stay handy $9 fixed odds seems pretty good value if the rain stays away.

Croatia is having his third start. After winning on debut he was able to show a big finish to behind Irish Rebel and Magic Shaft. He has to be confided a contender here.

Mai Guru is having his first start since his fifth in the Karaka Million. I was slightly surprised by that fifth, he seemed to outperform other horses who I might have expected better from. This race is just stacked and he will have to show improvement to finish ahead of Silk Pins, Choice Bro, and Warhorse.

Roof of Reckoning is a maiden runner who was able to show something at Matamata, hard to know if possibly wet ground might help. He looks reasonably talented, but there are some classy runners to beat here.

King Zeus is having his second start and will go from barrier 6. He seemed to improve with trialing and was favourite in his first start. He was beaten by Fix over 1000m, who went on to have a good win on Auckland Cup day. King Zeus showed good fight but was worn down late. I suspect he may be fitter for the run and 1200m may suit.

Rollout the Carpet for James McDonald has drawn 11, but is coming off a form line which looks the same in the race book (1 and 1 been the results of his last two runs). The second win was in the Matamata Breeders Stakes at Group 2 level. She has beaten the fillies, so the question becomes can she beat the boys too? She is good and has looked it in her last two starts. Wetness underfoot does not appear to be an issue. Barrier number 11 may not be a problem if she gets out as well as she has recently, she will want to be handy and in a position to lead them home.

Seleno was very eye catching at New Plymouth last start, she was wide and back and simply flew home. If the track is wet it will suit and you suspect that 2nd up may help. The draw should suit and if she is closer to them starting her run, look out!

Silk Pins was great in the Karaka Million. Before the Karaka Million her record is deceiving, she didn't get a lot of luck in those races. Was third in the Matamata breeders stakes and didn't look as good that day. Happy to give her a chance, but I have a concern on wet ground based on the slow track New Years day at Ellerslie.

Soriano is currently undefeated. She was a winner late last week at Te Rapa. She is a bit of an enigma here, the win looked very good, but there is a lot of solid exposed form here.

Coat du Roan was good when 6th at Taranaki, was also unlucky when caught up by Ockham's Razor. Throw that race out and there is less to go on. She is almost certainly better than a $41 chance, but you could only take her on potential. Chateauneuf Dupape ran third in this race last year, as that is in the Rhone region maybe a horse called Coat du Roan can feature this year.

The Picks (I am assuming this forecast rain clears and we get back to a good or dead track)
First - Warhorse - This looks much more suitable than the Karaka Million.

Second - Rollout the Carpet - Looks talented, I have spent 1,500 words explaining how this could be Jame McDonald's week.
Third - Choice Bro - Like Rollout the Carpet the draw is a concern, there is no doubt of the talent. He will be coming on at the end.
Fourth - Seleno - Big finish, if she was 6th instead of 9th back she may have won, she will be closer from barrier 2.

In the New Zealand Stakes James McDonald will ride Scarlett Lady against a strong Group 1 field. Veyron is certainly the most dangerous after winning back to back Group 1's and showing that the step to middle distance is not so big after-all on Boxing Day, he loves this track and will be very hard to beat.

Veyron all but eliminated middle distance questions on Boxing Day. I also think his build up to this race has been far better than the build up to boxing day. He will handle all tracks so weather concerns should not be an issue.

Hold it Harvey is always consistent at Group 1 level. He came for them late when stepping back to 1600m at Otaki and was second to Shez Sensational at Te Rapa before that. This is a rare trip to Ellerslie and right handed, but he is hitting the strongest part of his campaign and he is better than when he was last here boxing day 2010.

Doctor Fremantle was good for a surprising third here on Boxing Day. He didn't get a lot of breaks last time in Hamilton. This is a big ask but he is capable of running in the money.

Showcause has basically been weighted out of the Open Handicap level (although it would have been interesting to see him yesterday). Although he didn't come back the strongest at New Plymouth that is not surprising. He is yet to feature second up either, a stat which is countered by his strong Ellerslie record. He gets better third up, and you might expect he can do something here but not enough to win.

Vosne Romanee won this race two years ago and surprised for a place last year. His last two starts have actually shown a bit of a (relative) resurgence in the nine year old gelding. Don't completely dismiss for old times sake, but there are a lot of better places for your money.

Riomoral has been a big improver over the last couple of months. WFA Group 1 seems a bit optimistic, but the steps towards middle distance have suited him.

Postmans Daughter probably needed a run between the Darci Brahma and this and she got in over 1600m in a Group 1 at Otaki. That was never going to be the ideal race for her but this is definitely where she will look at home. She seems to respond better to 2000m+ and going right handed, drawn barrier 1 will help too. This race looks perfectly set up for her, but it is hard to see her beating Veyron or Scarlett Lady.

Lady Kipling performed very strongly over 1600m at Otaki. She had her first win at Ellerslie two starts back but has twice been fourth at Group 1 level. She has been very consistent recently and the move up to 2000m should put her in a good position.

Scarlett Lady will face her first big test since returning from injury. If this race was run in the spring she probably would have been sole favourite. She has had 1 run back for 1 win but this is tougher. 2000m will surely suit her and she wont mind any rain. She has always been consistent, it was really unfortunate to see injury derailing her spring because she really could have made some noise in Melbourne last year.

Inferno is making her first trip to the big city following a pretty strong run in Matamata last start. This will be a major test but the distance should suit and around 8th up should see her peaking. It is a big ask.

Shuka is trying to become the first 3YO to win an Open level Group 1 this season. Twice in his career he has backed up in under a week and he has run second both times. The step back to 2000m should assist his chances. He is an absolute winning chance here, but yet again he might just be facing too much talent, which has been the story of his career to date.

I hate to go chalk, but it is hard to look past the favourites in this race. Who will win? toss a coin, it could be that close. We have not seen a big Group 1 shock this year, The Party Stand was somewhat of a shock winning this last year.

The Picks
First - Veyron - It just feels like he has put in the work to establish himself as favourite. Winning back to back Group 1's. The 2000m looks right for him and that Ellerslie record is superb.
Second - Scarlett Lady - Can win this based just on class. I think she will take a couple more races to get back to her absolute best, not sure where that will be, Australia?
Third - Postmans Daughter - I think the return to right handed should suit enough for her to improve on the Waikato run.
Fourth - Lady Kipling - Talent on the rise, could be the Cup week shock.

That was tough, I switched 1 and two back and forth several times and also changed up third and fourth with the mares and Hold it Harvey. I think it would pay to keep them safe on the weekend.

Auckland Cup Preview 2012

2012-03-07T09:19:00.000+13:00

Amongst the hype of Derby Day you may have missed it, but Titch won his second consecutive Auckland Cup. Preview over. Thanks for reading.

Of course the Auckland Cup is not actually run until later on this afternoon, but Titch ran second in the Nathan's Memorial, a race which has recently been an excellent indicator of Auckland Cup success. It was a close finish, but lucky for him he didn't win, otherwise we would be talking about the Jungle Boy right now. If all of this sounds familiar that is because it is, Titch ran second in this race last year behind Solid Billing (that was another very tight finish on a rain effected track) who went on to run 10th in the Auckland Cup. Forget about Minquar Quaim from two years ago. Three Years ago Spin Around was chased down by Capecover in the Nathan's memorial, he turned the tide the following Wednesday finishing 8 places ahead of Capecover and winning the Cup. Unfortunately, Prize Lady decided to ruin things by not running in the Nathan's Memorial in either 2008 or 2007, running 3rd and 4th in the Auckland Cup prelude (which would now have been the Avondale Cup), she also ran 3rd in that race in 2009.

Where does this leave us in regard to this years Auckland Cup? I really don't know.

A 3200m Open Handicap is a very strange thing. They are so few and far between that many starters will not have run over this distance or run over it very few times. Often prior to running 3200m horses have been racing over 2400m or shorter, that is 800m shorter, so success does not always correlate. It is always interesting to see horses who are 'out of form' when talking about shorter distances stepping up with that further 800m and turning into contenders. Today I wanted to break down the positives and negatives for the runners and look at who can contend.

#1 Six O'Clock News, Barrier 6, 59kg
The Positives
Is back in form recently and actually winning taking out the Wellington Cup (2400m). He has run 5th and 7th in this race in the past when he has been in similar form. Barrier 6 should see him reasonably well placed in the running to avoid any extra distance. The track should be good for him too.
My Concerns
Carrying 59kg effectively rules him out for me. He carried 56kg to win the Wellington Cup, and 59kg when last (at WFA) in Hamilton next start.

#2 Booming, Barrier 20, 58kg
The Positives
He seems to get better with a bit more distance, he looked to improve stepping up from 2000m to 2400m and has placed in his only 3200m start. Auckland also seems to be a track which will see him show an above average performance. Eye catching in the Avondale Cup, was really running on well and drops a kg from that start.
My Concerns
Although solid this campaign, he has not really found the same form from a year ago. He has been close but until the Avondale Cup has not shown his best. He is facing a big field and will be coming from an outside barrier, he would normally look to come from towards to the back, but over 3200m the possibility of racing wide is very real.

#3 Titch, Barrier 12, 57.5kg
The Positives
Clearly a horse capable of winning over 3200m. Ran home well over the finial stages for second in the Nathan's Memorial.Was able to carry the 57.5kg on the weekend when second, and has carried more recently.
My Concerns
Carrying 3kg more than he carries a year ago in this race for victory. Although he is a Group 1 winner, his previous two wins have been for 15k and 20k and at courses abbreviated TAUH and WROA. I googled these to discover they are Wairoa and Tauherenikau, again I turned to Google to discover Wairoa is in the northern Hawkes Bay and Tauherenikau is in Martinborough, which is in the Wairarapa. Whilst I will apologise for my geographical ignorance, it is evident he has not been facing the toughest of competition since his Auckland Cup victory.

#4 Spiro, Barrier 3, 57.5kg
The Positives
Has looked in good form with strong performances carrying more weight in the Wellington and Taranaki Cups. He definitely gets better with racing, this is his 9th start up this time which should see him at peak performance. He stepped back from 2400m in the Wellington Cup to 1800m, and it looked like a few more meters might have been helpful. He showed good fight in Wellington when Six O'Clock News was too good, 3200m will be a first.
My Concerns
He is not only venturing to Ellerslie for the first time, he will be having his first start right handed. Is this a question mark we should be thinking about? It is also his first 3200m start, although he has shown it is likely to not be too big of a concern.

#5 Shez Sensational, Barrier 19, 55kg
The Positives
She will carry only 55kg on a decent surface. She is a dual Group 1 winner this year already and has shown her ability to stay in Queensland last winter.
My Concerns
He run on the weekend, but they have really been addressed by James McDonald after that race. The distance is still a concern, and the wide draw could always lead to an difficult position, but it might be less critical with 3200m to run, particularity given James McDonald's ability to read a race a break from the norm as required, like we saw on Silent Achiever on Saturday.

#6 Single Minded, Barrier 11, 54kg
The Positives
Won the Avondale Cup in strong fashion. Has been very consistent of late rising through the grades as a stayer. He has performed well at Ellerslie and will actually carry less weight here than in either of his last two victories.
My Concerns
He possibly still lacks experience and is still getting used to running against this level of competition. 3200m is an unknown, and this is tougher than either of his last wins in Auckland.

#7 The Jungle Boy, Barrier 17, 54kg
The Positives
Finally broke his duck at Ellerslie with a win in his 11th start, is this the start of a streak? or will there be another gap between victories? He showed a good finish on the weekend and will again reduce his weight by 1.5kg. Placed over 3200m.
My Concerns
His overall record at Ellerslie is no good, although as I have written before there is not really a logical reason for that. He does like a wet surface, he will be unlikely to see that later today.

#8 Blood Brotha, Barrier 8, 54kg
The Positives
New Zealand Cup winner who is only carrying .5kg more from that race. Gets better over more ground. Good third in the Avondale Cup which looked to signal a bit of a return to form. This will be the first time with the same jockey back to back since February 2011. He might be getting back to best form at the right time.
My Concerns
Last two victories have come on Heavy tracks including the New Zealand Cup victory.

#9 Back in Black, Barrier 1, 54kg
The Positives
Last start was his best run since the spring. Will be able to race to his strength and stay handy from the inside barrier.The Jungle Boy broke a long Ellerslie drought on Saturday, maybe he will follow suit. 54kg is a lot lighter than recent runs, may be some merit.
My Concerns
Horrible Ellerslie record, no wins from 16 attempts (like the Jungle Boy it is surprising considering he has an otherwise strong right handed record). Tends to win early, is now 15th up. The biggest race he has won was worth $40k. Yet to win, or place, over 2000m.

#10 Castle Heights, Barrier 21, 54kg
The Positives
Placed in this race a year ago. Was pretty good up until the Avondale Cup. He should be able to show a strongish finish in this race. Down to 54kg which is still 2kg more than a year ago, but much lighter than recent starts.
My Concerns
Has not actually won since 2009. Would have expected a better Avondale Cup run as was looking in better form before that. He is drawn one of the widest,

#11 Loose Change, Barrier 23, 53.5kg
The Positives
Very experienced at 2400m, finishing off races well most of the time recently. Will get a good track which is what he needs. He looks to improve with a bit more racing, so should be ready to put forward a good effort.
My Concerns
Possibly looks a bit outclassed in this field. Limited experience at Ellerslie or on right handed tracks. 53.5kg is light, but has not really been carrying that much more when losing in pretty strong races. Drawn way outside.

#12 Aussieaussieaussie, Barrier 4, 52.5kg
The Positives
Had his best result in the North Island recently, he does tend to get better with a bit of racing, so he could go well in this type of race.
My Concerns
Has never won outside of the South Island. He tends to get better on a wetter surface. He has never won over more than 1800m. Given a lack of strong 2400m performances you have to be concerned about the 3200m trip.

#13 Yours, Barrier 22, 52.5kg
The Positives
Close up to Titch two starts back while carrying 59kgs. Has now had two starts over the distance, with a good performance for 4th in the New Zealand Cup.
My Concerns
Was second last in the Avondale Cup, that was a tough race, but this is tougher, was running on, but will only carry 1kg less.

#14 Options, Barrier 7, 52kg
The Positives
Genuine lightweight chance, in form and has looked good winning on the course. Always a lightweight runner who shows up strong for a race like this. Was very impressive over 2000m winning easily at Matamata. Adjusting well to racing in the North Island.
My Concerns
Longest win/race has only been 2100m, this is a lot further. New to the open handicap level, has been improving but Group 1 level should represent a step up.

#15 Innocent Lady, Barrier 24, 52kg
The Positives
Lightweight chance who has previously looked decent running over 3200m. Was not in great form prior to 4th in this race last year.She is definitely one of those runners when I see the distance I get a bit more interested, and when I see that weight I sort of think "Really! only 52 kilos?"
My Concerns
Far from best form, has had a very bad year to date. Badly drawn. Despite my first reaction I watched the Avondale Cup, I don't think she really can figure here.

#16 Peace Lilly, Barrier 7, 52kg
The Positives
A runner who seems to be getting better at running at open handicap level, the think I like is that while this is a step up from Rating 85, she was at the top of that grade and carrying high weights, the drop to 52kg is very tempting. Has done well at racing and 5 of her 6 wins have been right handed.
My Concerns
She has possibly performed best recently on tracks which are more rain effected, but has a consistent overall record on all tracks. This still seems like a step up in class from the races she has been winning.

#17 Jaffa Jack, Barrier 10, 52kg
The Positives
Jaffa Jack has performed well over more distance, probably 3200m will suit given the strength he has shown over distance on wet tracks.
My Concerns
It is going to be a bit too dry for this stayer to feature. A seven year old with 22 career starts, who has only recently been running at open level, even with the lightweight this is a step up.

#18 Top Spot, Barrier 11, 52kg
The Positives
Has performed well carrying similar weights in races over 2400m. He has performed well at Ellerslie recently, particularly the 3rd in the City of Auckland Cup carrying more weight.
My Concerns
Ideally you would probably want a slightly wetter track to see his best. Last win was first up over 1400m at rating 85 level, this is a lot tougher.

The Picks
Value Win - Options ($12) - Pretty good for a chance to win at that light weight.
Value Place - Top Spot ($9) - I could actually see it winning, but it is a bit tough, it is definitely a place chance and $9 is pretty good value for the place.
Longest shot I can see coming - Top Spot ($31) - If things go right I could see it.

First - Single Minded - ($6.50) - Was so impressive in the Avondale Cup, I can see him going on here and stepping up over 3200m.
Second - Shez Sensational - ($1.40p) - Simply too classy not to be in the picture.
Third - Options - ($4p) - A leightweight should figure here.
Fourth - Spiro - ($5.20p) - I think think he will figure in this race, I think 3200m is looking light the right distance and I can see him winning this.

There are so many chances, I really find it hard to completely rule out anyone under the $21 mark. I think Shez Sensational is clearly the most talented, but there is definitely some concerns from the weekend run.

Previewing Derby Day

2012-03-02T13:36:00.001+13:00

I have gone into a lot of detail about the actual Telecom New Zealand Derby, but there is a lot of great racing action happening at Ellerslie at TV3 Derby Day. Any day when you have $20,000 maidens will be a day where you attract the top talent available.

Lindaeur 1400, Maiden
5 Eastward - Bad luck in Hamilton last start, missed the start and fighting for a run, however wound up well. 1400m looks idea, drawn barrier one will hopefully give him more room.
1 American Idol - Consistently strong in first two starts, an extra 100m to 1400m Saturday. Both runners to beat him last start were already race winners.

3 El Volante - Was so close to breaking Maiden ranks last start over 1400m, showed a strong finish, narrowly missing out to a runner who was not far away up in grade next start. Forget the 1600m last start, it feels like 1400m will suit.

9 Impy Luis - Far more consistency shown this prep, it looks like taking on 1400m will suit as she will be fitter for the runs back, possible value.

Stella Artois 2100m, Special Conditions 2100m
8 Grande Bellezza - Good experience over this kind of distance and running in bigger maiden and Special conditions races. Kept giving a lot last start, you cannot find too many faults with the run, was simply beaten by a better horse who is a Derby chance.
6 Rhythm Divine - A runner who has shown some ability at Ellerslie and with some moisture around. Claiming 3kg. She has been running in strong maidens and Special conditions races. Quick over the last 600m last start. The step to 2100m will appeal.
7 Te Ariki - Looks a genuine stayer at 4YO, already has five runs over 2000m and seems best suited to 2100m, can see it winning this.
2 Roddick - Maybe has not quite been competing against the same level of competition recently, however the victory last start was strong and a repeat performance here would see him in the money most likely.

TV3 Nathan's Memorial 2200m, Open Handicap
2 Shez Sensational - She really lives up to the name. Looking to back up on Wednesday in the Cup one would assume. Handicap conditions see her carry 59kgs, 2200m is more distance than her starts this prep, but she has placed in a Derby and an Oaks in the past.
3 The Jungle Boy - Will be one hoping for rain. He is getting closer to breaking that Ellerslie jinx, this is slightly easier than the Avondale Cup so he can hopefully go one or two better than fourth.
1 Titch - Gets better with racing and looks good after winning his last two starts particularly after taking the 2kg claim into account. This race is tougher, but he has a shining Ellerslie record, and if there is rain around he will be in his element.
6 Azincourt - He tends to get better with racing. His distance record is interesting recently, when he runs 2000m he looks like she needs more distance, when he runs 2100 or 2200m he looks a bit spent. Drawn well and handles damper conditions, can he be another to challenge his Ellerslie Jinx?

The Gucci Mile, 3YO 1600m
7 Abeautifulred - A filly I have liked since the Guineas, always competitive and has been racing against top company in the 3YO ranks. A step back to 1600m should see her on top.
1 Kings Fortune - Showed significant promise recently but the weight is a concern, it is difficult not to have him in the mix on recent results.
8 Full of Spirit - if you watch the last two starts you will see a horse ready for 1600m, has been running in solid races and looks well suited here.
3 Hexie Hao - Has come on in January, this is tougher, but with the claim and impressively consistent record he should be considered here.

Barfoot and Thompson Mile, Rating 85 1600m
6 Rasteau - Consistent and in form, forget the run two starts back we should see another strong finish over 1600m.
8 Essaouria - Always close, 1600m record is great and seems to handle all conditions so far. Back up in grade but will only have to carry 54kg
5 Platinum Dancer - Flying to finish third in a similar race recently, will have an extra 200m to handle but it looks like he is ready for that.

4 Steel Giant - Don't know much about this horse returning from Hong Kong, usually runners struggle with the conditions or the change in location but he has a good enough overall record that he is worth considering.

The New Zealand Herald 1400, Rating 65 1400m
4 Positive Energy - Close to two from two at 1400m last start. That was impressive because he ran three and four wide early and showed a big finish. Looks like he will be a threat when he steps up to 1600m but for now 1400m looks a good trip.

5 Have no Mercy - Has talent and will claim 3kg, has placed 2 of 3 runs at Ellerslie and wont mind the wet conditions predicted. Last start over 1400m was very good where there was a lot of fight shown.
9 Ishimine - Has been running on this type of premier day recently, was very good two starts back weaving through traffic for 4th, the 3rd at Matamata was distant, but it looks as if 1400m should see her in this.
13 Bead of Courage - Possible value runner, both wins have come over 1400m and on rain effected tracks, will claim 3kg down to very little weight. Won third and fourth up last prep so should come on with the first up start.

Darley Plate, Group 3 1200m
3 Justanexcuse - A lot to like in this race, he has been racing over more distance but has an impressive 1200m record. He has been freshened since January and he goes very well in that state, he will not be concerned by the rain and barrier 10 shouldn't concern given he will likely go back anyway.
1 Durham Town - Very unlucky last start, the fall by Vinnie Colgan was nasty and could have been much worse as he was very close to the rail. He has an Ellerslie and 1200m record similar to Veyron and he seems to be getting better. My concern is that the times he has failed to place at Ellerslie have both been on rain effected tracks. He is undefeated after a spell like he has just had.
5 Vonusti - Although he has been taking on more ground recently he has had a month off and brought back to the distance in which he is a Group 1 winner. 55kg's appeals, he has a good record at Ellerslie and will handle any moisture in the ground. He was running in pretty good form prior to Christmas and this looks a bit easier than some recent starts.
4 Ourforeignminister - Was pretty good in the winter and spring last year. 1200m is probably short of ideal, but I like his chances to do something resuming on what is likely to be a rain effected track.

George FM 2100, Rating 75 over 2100m

3 Captian Marvel - Aside from the one slow track he has encountered he has won or placed in each start to date, will probably figure here.
12 La Veinne - Another runner on the rise, well weighted here with a distance which suits. Seems to have struggled getting away from barrier one, but a threat with a good trip.
2 Payback - Good course and distance record, will handle the wet, claiming 1kg and looks suited to 2100m. Could be value.
10 Bellino - Looked good on the track over 1600m, really came for them into 3rd, he has always gone well over a bit more distance so could be right in this.

New Zealand Derby
I have written an in-depth derby preview here.

Auckland 1400, Rating 75 1400m

3 C'est Magnifique - Goes well fresh, rain is a question mark but he looks to have a lot of talent, there are a lot of chances in this race but he looks very good.
1 Islington Bay - Second race in 3 years, a great effort first up, an extra 100m here suits as does the 3kg claim if the conditions are wet.
8 Lovesite - Is probably looking for more distance, but the claim and wet track effort makes this look like a suitable race on the way to more distance.
9 The Captain - Has not had many attempts right handed, but 1400m and a wet track should suit, seems to go well with some racing, definitely a chance.

2012 New Zealand Derby Preview

2012-03-01T15:06:00.001+13:00

This Saturday we are sure to witness a great New Zealand Derby. I have decided to dust off the gimmick I used for the Melbourne Cup last year and pick the result from 17th to first. The field is set, the odds are out, the main unknown is the weather, it is looking reasonably dicey with rain forecast leading up to and on the day. Could we be looking at a third rain effected derby in the last four years? Last year it didn't matter, Jimmy Choux was simply more talented than the remainder of the field, this year? well I think this is already going to be a close race between the main contenders, I think there are some longer shots who can figure, and I think rain could be a great leveler.

(Note: I will be highlighting races to watch for each of the runners, you can watch these by following the link to the NZ Racing website, you will have to sign up, but it is free)

17th Guess What
Jockey: Noel Harris

Barrier: 12
Best race to watch: He ran fourth behind Shuka, Ocean Park and Silent Achiever in the Waikato Guineas, It was a pretty good effort where he kept trying to fight.
What has he done since? Given the guineas fight it is hard to understand the last place without any fight in the Avondale Guineas a couple of weeks later, he has again only had two weeks off, so it is hard to know if you should expect a better effort.
Best case: On the Waikato run you might expect him to travel well and run home well. He may take a lead and holding it until after the turn only to be out sprinted by the big guns falling down to 7th.

16th Barney
Jockey: Craig Grylls
Barrier: 17
Best Race to Watch: The Mad Butcher Championship Stake Prelude, I know his odds made a move for the win a couple of starts later at Matamata, but that was a good Third to a good horse in Duckworth Lewis. He ran well over the 2100m and seemed to find a bit more when he needed it over the last 200m.
What has he done since? He has ran against some good horses without the success, but it is important to note he has been racing at a high level. His win was over 2000m, but it was a $5,000 maiden, when stepping back up in the Waikato Guineas he seemed to fight to the line, but was not a contender. Barrier 17 will worry, has been reasonably handy over the last three, he may find himself in no mans land on Saturday.
Best Case: Is 3 wide, but finds cover, never gives up and beats a couple of tired ones into 12th. His connections have a fun day seeing their horse in the Derby.

15th Mr Chez
Jockey: Sam Spratt
Barrier: 2
Best race to watch: Two starts back at Waikato in the New Zealand Bloodstock Premier he looked good, he really dominated a Rating 65 field over 2100m (well everyone except for Sir Tane), but that is what you would probably expect from a Victorian Derby runner at Rating 65 level.
What has he done since? Was not as good in the Avondale Guineas, finishing well behind Roamin for 6th and possibly delayed Colorado Sun from making a run to beat him.
Best case: He recaptures the consistency which saw him run 3rd in the Geelong Classic, he shows more of a finish and excels over 2400m to slide into 6th place.

14th Roamin

Jockey: Trudy Thornton

Barrier: 6

Best race to watch: Kate and 'The Master' 2100 , I liked this first victory, it was a big field, not really of the same caliber he will face on Saturday, but Leith Innes did a great job finding a place to settle and the horse really lifted and responded to challenges over the final 250m.

What has he done since: He went to Auckland and didn't do a lot, followed by another win at Rating 65 level over 2000m at Te Awamutu, he then stepped up in the Avondale Guineas running a fairly close 5th behind four derby starters. He didn't look too bad that day, but looked far short of the class of Silent Achiever.

Best case: The barrier should suit and he may get a similar trip to the race in Hamilton, which would be an improvement on some of his recent starts. He is able to put on a show but finds himself dropping backwards over the final 200m into 9th. Auckland has been a bit of a troubled spot for this horse, which might be simply representative of the level of competition he faces when he races here.

13th Colorado Sun
Jockey: Patrick Holmes
Barrier: 13
Best race to watch: Irwins Truck and Bus Sales 1580 It was a pretty good third after getting away slowly, there seemed to be pace on and he was able to go past most of the field to hit the lead, he finished third, but still seemed to run on well.
What has he done since? Had a race in the Avondale Guineas and was handily beaten by six derby starters, the excuse may be that he was hindered for a good run, he did seem to move a bit when he got space, but at that stage it was a bit too late.
Best Case: Will likely go back from barrier 13 and be close to Silent Achiever, the best case is to hope for the speed to be on a bit and to follow the horse who has a nose for the finish line as far as possibly before fading into 8th.

12th Zurella
Jockey:
Barrier: 7
Best Race to watch: If you had a look at the Sir Tristram Fillies earlier to focus on other runners, have another look at Zurella's impressive victory. It looks a bit closer than it is, technically she only won by a long head, but she was heading in the right direction at the end. I particularly liked the extra effort over the last 50 meters to seal victory. The horses she beat that day were as good as any other 3YO field assembled this season other than the 1000 and 2000 guineas and probably the Eight Carat Classic.
What has she done since? That was her last start, it expelled any concerns about 2000m, but maybe 2400m is still concerning, also the predicted weather is a worry given the Royal Stakes result.
Best Case: The weather gods smile and the overnight rain stays away and sun is prevalent to burn the revellers and keep the track dry, she is able to get out of the barrier well and travel well, she is challenged about 300m out by Silent Achiever and Rock'n'Pop after she hits the lead but she is able to dig in and hold on to beat them in a close photo. I just feel that one of the main contenders is likely to falter and given the rain forecast I think she could be the one (if the rain stays away I see her around 4th)

11th Nine Pin
Jockey: Danielle Johnson

Barrier: 1
Best Race to watch: Have a look at his last start in the Collett Racing Stables 2200m, A pretty good second, close to a victory, but showed pretty good fight.
What has he done since? That was his last start it was about two weeks ago.
Best case: I actually quite like this horse, I think he is consistent and I really thought he would be higher in this list, but there is probably just a bit too much class here to put him higher. The best case could involve him getting out of barrier one well and staying handy to show the same fight and consistency into a top 5 finish.

10th Jeroboam
Jockey: TBA
Barrier:10
Best race to watch: The Auckland Co-Op Taxi's mile in December, he ran a pretty good third, and looked to be running on. The main reason to watch that race is that you get to see Silent Achiever win her first race.
What has he done since? He was able to break maidens next start, he ran a good looking second on Avondale Guineas day over 2100m, again he showed signs of hitting the line well.
Best case: He goes well at Ellerslie, he races better handy. If he is able to find a nice trailing run he might be able to stick with the leaders and hold on as they pull away to finish 5th.

9th Carrick
Jockey: Leith Innes
Barrier: 15
Best Race to watch: The Avondale Guineas is probably the best display. It was a good third, but he still trailed Shuka and Silent Achiever. He seemed to go very early in that race and was able to hold on well.
What has he done since? This is his first race since then, he will be better for the start over 2100m.
Best case: He again is not one who has looked to push forward in races, the lack of speed, may change up the tactics, but should at least give him time to find somewhere to settle. I can't really separate Travolta and Carrick, both look decent, but hard to see him featuring in the finish, possibly 3rd or 4th as a best case.

8th Angelology

Jockey: Kelly Myers

Barrier: 3

Best race to watch: The St Ledger Trial is a good example, maybe he didn't have to beat the biggest or most threatening field, but it was a good example of a first run over 2100m, and he ran it out well.

What has he done since? That was his last start, so will be backing up a week later for this, he has done that a couple of times and won both times.

Best case: You suspect this is far more difficult than anything he has faced, but the fact he has raced without really facing any other contenders, or really even taking on any horses who have also been racing against other runners in this field makes him somewhat of an unknown. He will be the likely leader, particularly from barrier 3, and in a race without a lot of pace or other likely leaders (really only Guess What and Shuka have really led races in the past) he will probably be able to dictate terms, this really could be a sprint finish with a lot of fresh horses. The best case is definitely him taking advantage of the fact his capabilities are unknown and taking off on the corner and stealing victory.

7th Travolta
Jockey: Mark Hills
Barrier: 14
Best Race to Watch: Have a look at him winning over 1600m in Wellington three starts back, he continued to lift to victory on a dead track.
What has he done since? He ran a pretty good fourth in the Avondale guineas after failing at Rating 75 level first time over more than 1600m.
Best Case: I really thought this horse looked great before the Avondale Guineas, he seemed taller and bigger, and looked ready to go. His forth was reasonable and he ran on well, but barrier 14 is a bit off putting. Again the lack of speed may suit and allow him to find cover, if he is able to wind up he could ruin or add value to a few Trifectas by running 3rd.

6th Ocean Park
Jockey: Chad Ormsby
Barrier: 4
Best Race to watch: He was amazing winning the Phil Cataldo Bloodstock Wellington Stakes. Wow, he just kept finding and left them all in his wake.
What has he done since? He looked good in Waikato but was outgunned by Silent Achiever.
Best Case: Barrier four should suit, I am sure they would like to have a eye on Silent Achiever, and typically he has shown strong finishes from distance behind the leaders which is similar to the filly, but from that draw he could put himself in a nice handy position only a few back on the rial, so it will be interesting. The best case is a nice trip, saving his run, showing the ability to hold back and make a late charge like that race in Wellington. He is strong and consistent, rain is a question mark, but he might be too powerful. The rain is a concern enough for me to drop him a couple of spots from where I have him on a good track (3rd behind Rock'n'pop and Silent Achiever).

5nd Rock'n'Pop
Jockey: Matthew Cameron
Barrier: 9

Best Race to Watch: Have a look at his last start against the older horses at WFA level. Forget Shez Sensational, she smashed'em. The pace was off, he was last on the turn and continued to warm up coming home, looking great hitting the line and probably making some ground.
What has he done since? That was his last start, he has had three weeks off, which appears to suit.
Best Case: I read they are going to want to ride him a bit more handy (I can't remember where so I can't include a link), that may suit from barrier 9 you can expect him three or back, with that finish and a bit more distance this strong colt overpowers them and keeps giving making it impossible to Silent Achiever and Ocean Park to catch him. Rain might be the biggest concern which is why I have dropped him from where I would see him in a dry track (2nd), I think if he is handy without much pace on he could still really finish strongly and not be caught.

4th Red Shift
Jockey:
Barrier: 5
Best Race to Watch: Westbury Stud New Zealand-made Stayers 2100m. He beat an interesting field comprising of a couple of competitors he will face Saturday and a couple of others who have raced in other feature races.He had to work for a run, took a while to wind up, but was coming home strongly.
What has he done since? Forgive the next start at Ellerslie, it was not the best effort, but he seemed to get away awkwardly, he still showed fight and covered the 2100m well. He really took a while to wind up, probably 300m before he really started making ground over the final 100m, maybe the extra Derby distance is a blessing.
Best Case: He gets out of the barriers well and stays the the first half of the field. He winds up well and really puts on a show as others are not staying the 2400m lifting to finish 2nd.

3rd Shuka
Jockey: Hayden Tinsley
Barrier: 16th
Best Race to Watch: Watch the Avondale Guineas again, while I think his chances her are hurt by the fact that Silent Achiever is cruising home. I watched that race live, I thought he was gone at the 150m mark which was close to where I was sitting, but he found more and lifted past Carrick for second. It is not that evident on video but live I thought he was going to finish fourth, and he showed a good finish and fight.

What has he done since? That was his last start, he is very consistent and should be in the mix again.
Best Case: Barrier 16 did concern, but there is not much pace in this race which may allow him to get into the first few and a comfortable position, even if he leads I don't think the pace will be too frantic. Hayden Tinsley is a great big race rider and wont panic if things don't start well. He actually reminds me a bit of Military Move from a couple of years ago, consistent without winning, chased home the derby favourite a few times, the race went his way on the day and he was able to take off and win, it is an interesting parallel. Don't worry about the wet either which is why I have bumped him to third.

2nd Chicharita
Jockey
Barrier: 11
Best Race to Watch: New Zealand Bloodstock Royal Stakes (Group 2), She won well, beating Planet Rock and Zurella (who I think have excuses), as well as Our Famous Eve (who went on to perform at Group 1 Level) and the handy Joy's Choice. She ran home beautifully for the victory in that event.
What has she done since? Raced in the Sir Tristram Fillies Classic against a good field, on a good track and finished 6th. She was in the first bunch and beat all the horses she was supposed to. She was beaten by five fillies who have had impressive seasons, but I would have liked to see her go a bit better there to figure here.
Best Case: She goes well in Auckland, barrier 11 will suit, and will likely be amongst the top six favourites on Derby Day. The forecast rain will suit, as will the return to a right handed track. She is able to wind up on the turn and explode late to pass Silent Achiever on the line for victory in a best case.

1st Silent Achiever
Jockey: James McDonald
Barrier: 8
Best race to watch: Her beating Ocean Park in the Waikato Guineas, she showed everything you would want to see from your Derby Champion. She had to find a gap and fight through some traffic, she chased down a top horse and found enough to win.
What has she done since? Had a very easy time winning the Avondale Guineas, was really eased to the line after chasing down the competition from her usual rare position.
Best Case: Clearly winning, but the best case would involve James McDonald unleashing all of her significant power and coasting across the line 4 lengths clear of her rivals. She will handle the wet if it comes, barrier eight wont concern she should get a nice trip in the second half of the field.

Two Year Old Power Rankings the Pre Auckland Cup Week edition

2012-02-28T09:53:00.001+13:00

This is the time of year when the 2YO's start racing for big stakes, taking on black type races and approaching that first of two Group One races in New Zealand for 2YO's. A lot has taken place on the track since my first edition of 2YO Power Rankings which was just after the Karaka Million.

The other significant change was off the track when the connections of Ockham's Razor decided to leave their colt in New Zealand to take on Group 1 races. It is significant because after winning the Karaka Million he clearly would have been number 1 on the first list. He was subsequently beaten by Choice Bro who was seventh on the initial list.

Without further ado, on to this weeks list

Dropped from Rankings: Hazel (6), Mai Guru (8), Hogwarts Express (9)
Honourable Mention: Hazel (hardest omission), Mai Guru, Hogwarts Express, Oasis Rose, Croatia (so impressive coming home), Lumiere Blue, Liberating
(10) Seleno (N/A) - Amazing finish at New Plymouth and was a very narrow third.Was racing consistently prior to Christmas. One to watch, particularly as the 2YO races increase to 1400m in distance.
(9) Travino (1) - He didn't seem to have the form he showed prior to Christmas. I would be willing to give him another chance as he was so strong early on in the season.
(8) Rollout the Carpet (N/A) - Looked a potential riser with the Matamata victory. Was handy and ran home well. Back to back wins, will be interesting to see how high she continues climb.
(7) Silk Pins (2) - Pretty good third on the weekend. The race was probably not as strong as the Karaka Million but she seemed to run home nicely once she got going. This is a big drop but it is a reflection of other performances.
(6) Irish Rebel (5) - Was chasing down Magic Shaft on the weekend in a strong race. I thought it was an interesting run in Matamata. He raced wide and uncovered early and was towards the back of the pack. Having been to that race day in the past I know they get a big crowd, the crowd stretches down the side of the track, as Irish Rebel rounded the turn and down the straight he kept looking to the right (the crowd side), I am wondering if he was unsettled or distracted? It might be interesting to see him in blinkers. Either way he finished off strongly which is testament to his natural ability.
(5) Pussy Willow (4) - Hasn't raced since the last rankings, continues to look like a very strong 2YO contender.

(4) Warhorse (3) - Hasn't raced since the Karaka Million, he remains one of the top 2YO's in the country.
(3) Magic Shaft (10) - He beat a very good field in Matamata and was convincing. He looked to have that won well before the turn and really took off and sprinted for home in a well judged Michael Coleman ride.

(2) Choice Bro (7) - The natural second, a big win at Taranaki at Group 3 level, beating Ockham's Razor. He looked great winning too, finished off strongly, not sure if he will run in the Diamond Stakes the Manawatu Sires Produce or both, but I can imagine he will go very well over the 1400m on offer in the latter.
(1) Ockham's Razor (N/A) - He still deserves to be here, but will probably need to produce at Group 1 level to remain here. He was beaten by Choice Bro at Taranaki with a brilliant run from Choice Bro, however Ockham's Razor was all over the place and still almost won. It is hard to know what might have happened had he run straight and balanced over the last 400m, he seemed to interfere with other horses who may or may not have beaten him, but the balanced finish he produced with Craig Williams riding on Karaka Million night would have probably won that race.

20 Things to look forward to during Auckland Cup Week

2012-02-27T13:51:00.002+13:00

Auckland Cup Week is nearly upon us, it will be an excellent week to celebration New Zealand Racing, although I will no doubt look more closely at some of the feature races as we get closer to the main event, here are a list of things you can look forward to during Auckland Cup Week at Ellerslie.

1. Infield Partying
There are really only a couple of race days a year where the track is packed to the point the infield is used, Saturday the 3rd of March (TV3 Derby Day) will be one of them. I recall last year cramming under a makeshift shelter in the infield with about a dozen friends only coming out to brave the conditions to restock alcohol, place bets and watch races, but it was great fun, very memorable. I eventually made a run to the grandstand to watch Jimmy Choux do his thing, but the party atmosphere in the infield is always a great time. Boxing Day 2011 had one of the biggest crowds I can remember seeing at Ellerslie, the infield was packed and people were having a great time. Ellerslie does a great job of putting on peripheral entertainment, this year featuring Kimbra, I have no idea who that is, but they sure seem to be pushing it.

2. James McDonald
Last year Opie Bosson had an amazing Auckland Cup Carnival, he rode Titch, The Party Stand, and Anabandana to victories in the Auckland Cup, New Zealand Stakes, and the Diamond Stakes taking out three of the four Group 1 races during Auckland Cup week. That seemed an amazing feat, well this year James McDonald has a chance to replicate that feat as pointed out in the Waikato Times. Can he do it will be a sub-story of Cup week, Silent Achiever is currently Derby favorite, Shez Sensational is looking very good for the Cup. The article talks about Scarlett Lady, and if that is favoured in the New Zealand Stakes, however it looks like it has been withdrawn from nominations (at least they are not listed in on the NZRacing Website), if that is the case you might assume she will be in Australia. The question remains, who will he ride in the remaining Group 1, he rode Choice Bro before Matthew Cameron rode him to victory in Taranaki, he rode Silk Pins in its last start before the Karaka Million, he has ridden Deakes and Toaist Master who are potential nominees. I have no idea who is likely to be in this race, or who he is likely to ride, however looking at some of the potential names you have to figure he is a good chance in that Group 1. Assuming Shez Sensational opts for the Cup and Scarlett Lady is not in the NZ Stakes, James McDonald will no doubt get a ride in this race, however looking at recent 2000m WFA races it is harder to see a likely favourite he might ride, so this may be the one which gets away, either way a possible Mcdonald-Sweep is something to look out for during Cup week.

3. The Nathan's Memorial
As discussed last week two of the last three Auckland Cup winners have come second in this race on Derby Day. This seemingly typical 2200m event will likely feature horses racing as a lead up for the cup against others who simply see it as a good value Open Handicap event.

4. New Zealand's Top Horses
Take away the 4 Group 1's and the handful of other races at listed level and above, the fields are stacked throughout the week, even the midweek meeting. Last year Veyron won a 1200m rating 90, he is now a three time Group 1 winner. High stakes are on offer all week which brings in the top horses from around the country.

5. The Telecom New Zealand Derby on TV3 Derby Day
A major feature of Auckland Cup week, and this year promises a number of contenders who all have their merits. Silent Achiever is the favourite, but there is a lot to like about Ocean Park, Zurella and Rock'n'Pop who I can see potentially taking it out. Shuka you would think would need some luck, and Travolta and Carick looked good in the Avondale Guineas. Don't sleep on any of the longer shots they have tended to feature in recent years, it is the Derby, anything can happen.

6. Something for everyone
Looking back at last year, over the 30 races there were essentially an even number from 1200m, 1400m, 1600m, and 21/2200m, as well as races over 1100m, 2000m, 2400m and 3200m. Again an even number of the maiden's, Rating 70, 80, 90 and Open level races, four races for 3YO's a couple for 2YO's and Fillies and Mares. Whatever you are into there is something for you, it also gives trainers and connections opportunity to find the right race for their horse to compete which should increase the racing excitement.

7. Sunline Vase You don't want to sleep on this potentially explosive event. It is a listed race for the 3YO Fillies over 2100m, but there should be some real talent on display. Look back at the Sir Tristram Fillies Classic a couple of weeks ago, some of those contenders will be on display in the derby, but it is evident that we have a talented group of 3YO fillies, many of these will be taking on this event before the Oaks in a couple of weeks, this is a race to keep an eye on.

8. A major Citywide event
There is certainly a buzz around Auckland leading up to derby day. Not a crazy buzz, this is not an All Black's game, but people are definitely aware it is on, there will be a significant turn out all three days. Auckland Racing Club does a good job promoting this event and making people aware of how fun a day at the races can be.

9. TV3's new Sponsorship
Telecom is a great Derby Sponsor, TV3 certainly has great potential to bring additional life to the event. I can imagine their sponsorship should see more coverage of races outside of the Trackside channels. I thought Sky TV did a great job on Karaka Million night, and although I will be at Ellerslie on Derby Day it will be interesting to see what TV3 can do showing off the sights and sounds.

10. A 3200m Group 1
A very unique event, yes it is annual, but still not a lot of these major staying tests in the country, this year's field is starting to look like it is a very solid one. The Stella Artois Auckland Cup is a race which dates back until 1874 (at least if Wikipedia is to be believed). It is really the great unknown, many of the runners who accept wont have started a race over 2400m, it will a great test of stamina, a big field will line up which will make it s tactical challenge, and a stunning sight for the spectators, there will be questions on every runner as they enter the parade ring, there will be no certainties. Look at the Current favourites, Shez Sensational, Booming, Single Minded, Titch and Six O'Clock News, some questions include distance, weight, distance, form, and consistency amongst others. The winner will see it as an opportunity to look at other Cup races in the future as well as adding a/another Group 1 to their resume.

11. An office sweepstake opportunity
Do you really need an excuse? if it is good for the Melbourne Cup why not the Auckland Cup, it is on in a lot of pubs, get the team together, set up a sweep, drink beers, have fun, it is a simple recipe.If you are the person in your office who is into racing, take charge, set it up.

12. Diamond Day Whip'n'Spurs
If you have not yet experienced a Whips'n'Spurs party you should make this the one. They are a great event, relatively cheap, filled with people all dressed up, you get a great view of the track, and can party all night. You can get your tickets here.

13. Fashion and Stuff
It is not what brings me to the races, but it does tend to attract a lot of Women, and that is never a bad thing. Whenever I can get a good group together to attend these major race days I get to witness how much time an energy females put into wardrobe, hair, makeup, accessories. They go crazy for this stuff and despite the frustration which accompanies making five outfit changes in a morning before the races they clearly enjoy it. I am not in a position to mock, I spend multiple hours studying form in the week leading up to the races and typically get less out of it. The best bit, have you see a woman try to walk in high heels after three bottles of bubbly in 25+ degree temperatures, it is fun for the whole family.

14. New Zealand Stakes
What do you expect? Shez Sensational has won two Group 1 WFA races over 2000m this season, but take her out of it and this will be a wide open race. Look at the results we have seen this year in the Windsor Park Plate, the Spring Classic, the Captian Cook Stakes, the Zabeel Classic, the Darci Brahma International, and most recently the Otaki Group 1. We wont see Mufhasa, we most likely wont see Shez Sensational or Jimmy Choux, but you can see the quality these races are attracting and the mixed variety of results behind the winners. Veyron's plans are not certain, but given how well he went over 2000m on Boxing day, his love of Auckland and the form he is in, it could be an interesting race.

15. Changing the colours of the Jockey statue
Will we be seeing Titch's colours adorn the Jockey statue for another year? It is a quirky but awesome tradition at Ellerslie (and many other tracks), the winner of the Auckland Cup will have their colours painted on the statue in the back parade ring for the next year.

16. It is happening all over town
I don't want to get to carried away talking about the other codes, but Auckland Cup is not all about the Thoroughbred's. It is happening at Alexandra Park too, they actually kick it off this Friday night with their Oaks followed by their Derby/Cup night the following week, the details are here. If you are into the dag's (you like dag's?), they have their cup too, next Thursday night, details here.

17. Diamond Stakes
The first Group 1 for the Two Year Olds this season. It is shaping up like an outstanding one. The Two year olds have been going at each other this year, contenders are stepping up and then getting knocked down, it is fascinating stuff. I have no idea what to expect from this year group, it is not like there is a dominant Anabandana this year.
18. Enjoy a day in a beautiful park
Ellerslie is stunning, I was out there the other week for the Avondale Guineas day and the course and grounds are looking in excellent condition. You can essentially boil the day down to a picnic in the park, only with 20,000 other people. Even without the added entertainment, it is almost worth the price of admission just to enjoy the surroundings.
19. Midweek Racing of consequence
Having significant racing during the middle of the week is great. The Cup is at the perfect time to knock off work and head down to the pub, or if you are in the Auckland area just take the day off, a lot of other people will be. Better yet, arrange a 'team building' exercise and get paid to go to the races.

20. Leading international Jockeys
Craig Williams recently won the Karaka Million on Ockham's Razor, it is just another example of the success that international Jockey's have had when they venture to our shores. Cup week last year we saw wins from Jim Byrne, Douglas Whyte, Shane Scriven, other internationals Glenn Boss and Craig Williams riding here not to mention other Jockeys who were based in New Zealand who won that week like Mark Du Plessis, Jason Collett, Opie Bosson who are either overseas now or were at some point in the past 12 months riding. The prize money is not quite what is was last year, but there is still potential to see some internationals making the trip to New Zealand.

The changing face of New Zealand Group One Races

2012-02-23T12:42:00.000+13:00

For a time the Haunui Farm Group One Classic was looking like a rematch between Mufhasa, Veyron with Guiseppina in the mix. Now Mufhasa is off seeking his second Australian Group 1 of the season, in a race worth half a million Australian dollars. At some point it looked like he would be challenging the field for second with Black Caviar in that race, but it was a wise placement by Stephen McKee and Mufhasa's connections because realistically it was unlikely we would see Black Caviar run three weeks in a row, which seems a factor in the quality field the Futurity Stakes attracted.

The Otaki Group 1 really feels like the black sheep of New Zealand Group Ones, it just seems like a weird time and place amongst landscape of large race days and other Group 1's, aside from the $200,000 Group 1, the remaining races on this day are worth between $8,000 and $12,000. On first glance the field this attracted was maybe not what you might expect from a Group One either. This field contains four Group 1 winners, but it appears Vosne Romanee's best days have past, and Eagle Mountain is an unknown quantity.

When I looked again at this field in more detail this race may represent the changing face of New Zealand Group One races. Vosne Romanee, Vonsuti, Mufhasa, Hold It Harvey, Sir Slick, Six O'Clock News, Booming and two a lesser extent Wall Street (who is now racing in Australia), that is essentially the field for most Weight For Age Group 1 races over for the past couple of years. Yes, Mufhasa is still dominant, Six O'Clock News has maybe recaptured form, Booming was twice a Group 1 winner last year is still looking a possible Auckland Cup winner. These horses are not completely past it, but the point is that we have all seen these races before.

Jimmy Choux and Shez Sensational have each won two Group One races this season at age four. This race contains Four Year Old mares Postman's Daughter (already a Group 2 winner and Group 1 place getter), Lady Kipling (Group 1 placed at age three and 4th in a Group 1 age four). As well as Five Year Old Group 1 Winning mare Guiseppina. This race contains Veyron (now a two time Group 1 winner) only age six, as well as promising five year old The Hombre who has won in Australia and placed at Group 1 level in New Zealand this year. This race also contains 4YO's Sadist and Jaggard who have question marks around the WFA races, but no question have talent and the potential to be running at this level. There have also been other recent runners at age four or five stepping up to Group 1 level and showing potential.

The question I am asking, is this race an example of the future of Group 1 racing in New Zealand? (for the next couple of years at least) Well, it is hard to say, certainly you would think Jimmy Choux and Shez Sensational will continue to travel to Australia to compete. The problem with the mares like Guiseppina is that her connections will likely only continue to race her so long as they are winning more prize money than her progeny is likely to sell for, and they are not risking serious injury. Look at Barinka last year, solid career, finally got that Group 1, maybe didn't look like winning many more big races, suffered a bit of an injury, then retired. Another example is Veloce Bella who won the 2010 Darci Brahma International Stakes and by the time the 2011 version of that race came around she was in foal. I am sure there are countless other examples, but the landscape of these races can quickly change when it comes to the potential for a career after racing. That is why the nine horses I listed as an example of our recent Group 1 runners are all Geldings.

It is impossible to know how many more times the runners in the Haunui Farm Group 1 Classic will go on to compete against each other at this level because of some of the reasons listed above, but it is clear that I might have dismissed this field a bit too quickly because it does look like this field may contain some of the next generation of Group 1 competitors, and it is certainly evidence that we are in for an exciting group of emerging Group 1 contenders over the next couple of years.

How is this race going to play out? Here are some of my main talking points
I really think this race comes down to Eagle Mountain, certainly two years ago if he was running in this race he would have been considered favourite. At $7.50 on fixed odds it is clear that even bookmakers are not sure what to expect and they have kept him safe. The track is currently listed as dead and it is raining, weather effected tracks will suit him, he has a good 1600m record, but potentially more distance, like the New Zealand Stakes over 2000m might suit more. You almost have to include him because who knows what to expect.
Veyron will be the favourite coming off a strong Group 1 win over 1400m, he has a solid 1600m record and will be very hard to beat here.
Hold It Harvey is still very consistent and always seems to finish between 2nd and 4th in these races. This distance is his favourite recording 7 of his 14 victories at 1600m. He was really good this time of year last year, he has 8 career victories between 8th and 13th up, making this race right in the time when he tends to hit peak form. This is tough but $8.50 looks good value.
The Hombre looks the up-and-comer, if we were to jump forward to this time next year and list all of the Group 1 winners during that time, would you be surprised to see his name? no, me either. He looks to have that potential.
Guiseppina will likely struggle if it continues to rain, but this looks such a good opportunity for her to get a second Group One. Forget the run at Waikato, but I do question the 1600m, her results have been strange over this distance, she might have been effected by class, weight, track conditions or field size but the 12th and 15th are uncharacteristic, we have seen her run out 1400m races strongly which should indicate that 1600m is going to suit, but we are yet to see it.
Postmans Daughter is looking more and more likely to take out one of these races. Her last start was over 2000m, but dropping back in distance doesn't seem to be a major problem for her and she has a strong 1600m record. She also appears to becoming more suited to WFA conditions, and a rain effected track should not hinder her chances two much as she suits them better than a lot in this race.
Lady Kipling has won five races this season. This distance certainly appeals and WFA conditions for the 4YO mare shouldn't hold her chances back.

It is a tough race to pick because of the unknown conditions, looking at the forecast, we could get a lot of rain today, none tomorrow and then some overnight before the race. I will guess that this track will be at least Slow, possibly Heavy. That been the case my selections are
First - Veyron - Looks so good, handles all conditions, just a cut above.
Second - Hold it Harvey - Consistent, will handle the conditions, this could be the right place and the right time
Third - Postman's Daughter - Has shown she is up to this level of competition, back to 1600m shouldn't concern.
Fourth - Eagle Mountain - As I said he is so much of an unknown you really have to include him, particularly on a rain effected surface.

Value - Pretty good value around Postman's Daughter ($16), and even the Hombre ($10). Veyron looks so well placed here, but place odds for those will be interesting.
Longest shot I can see winning - Postman's Daughter ($16)